Risers & Fallers - Podfather Theory: 12 Personnel and Zero RB Strategy
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 27, 2026
Published
Sat, June 27, 2026
4
Player insights
4
Players mentioned
Topics
Brian Thomas Jr.Omarion HamptonQuentin JohnstonTre Harris
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
PositiveValue16:28
Matt Kelley's gut pick for best value in all of fantasy due to significant ADP decline.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
PositiveValue20:00
Matt Kelley identifies Marion Hampton as 'smash' value on Chargers. Second-year player in prime position with healthy left tackles, elite offense, and positive personnel changes (Charlie Kolar addition for heavy packages). All returning players from last year have gotten better, more experienced, or healthy. Kelley wants Marion Hampton in drafts.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveValue16:48
Matt Kelley is 'absolutely in love, enamored' with Johnston's ADP as one of the best values in fantasy. Historical comps include Robert Woods (2017), Marvin Jones (2017), Chris Godwin (2019), Jacoby Myers (2023), Nico Collins (2023), George Pickens (2024), and Christian Kirk (2022)—all players who broke out in year 3-4 with new offensive coordinator. Mike McDaniel scheme is set up for yards after catch with Johnston as target. Kelley does not like Johnston personally but is drafting him due to inexpensive ADP and elite offense projection.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveSleeper18:24
Albert Breer (Sports Illustrated) tagged Trey Harris as a sleeper and breakout candidate. Matt Kelley likes Harris as a player and sees ADP arbitrage advantage over Ladd McConkie. Going into second year with healthy left tackles, prime Justin Herbert (28 years old), and elite projected offense. Kelley prefers Harris over McConkie due to better value at similar ADP range.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:52only C-Store online for details. Coming up on Risers and Fallers, the Casuals are back and they're coming for our ADPs.
0:58I've got the Podfather here with me today. We've got huge Risers.
1:02We've got devastating Fallers. We're going to break them down right here on Player Profiler.
1:07I just want to keep dancing with that intro bumper comes.
1:11I'm feeling good. It's Friday. I've got my coffee.
1:13I'm switching to bourbon right after this podcast, maybe even a little bit during it.
1:18Matt, how are we doing today? Feeling great, man.
1:21Feeling great. Feeling fresh. Feeling spry. I did stairs today.
1:24I did a bunch of stairs while my daughter was doing her soccer training.
1:29I was doing stairs and then sprints and stairs and sprints.
1:32I'm feeling explosive. Are you like the guy who gets on sideways and does the karaoke sidesteps up the stairs or you just go straight attack mode?
1:41That sounds dangerous. No, these were legit concrete stairs.
1:44You can't do that. I think that would be dangerous.
1:47So, yeah, no, I'm not that skilled. But, you know, I'm at that age.
1:51I remember Ben Roethlisberger talking about this, talking about how once you get to a certain age, late 30s, every morning is an adventure.
1:59You have no idea how your body is going to feel.
2:03And I just woke up this morning feeling great.
2:05And the funny thing is, is I had drank a bunch of wine last night.
2:10So I thought for sure I was going to wake up.
2:14Has anyone ever felt it? Let us know in the chat.
2:17Let us know in the comments. Has this ever happened to you where you go to bed thinking, oh, tomorrow is going to be rough.
2:25I woke up right at 630. I popped out of bed.
2:29I felt great after like four glasses of wine.
2:32You know where I drank this wine? Outside of a cheesecake factory in a bus that's a windowless van.
2:38Very close. Very, very close. I was actually at Foxwoods.
2:41And I'm not allowed to say anything about this.
2:44I signed an NDA. I was at Foxwoods with Gordon Ramsay.
2:47And I was a diner at Hell's Kitchen. Oh, right.
2:50Yeah. That's not where I thought this was going.
2:53They had the camera in my face while they were making a dish table side for me.
2:59And I was trying my best to enjoy just to really show how much I enjoyed it.
3:04Spoiler alert, it was a little salty. It was a little salty.
3:08And I let the maitre d' know that. I don't think that ever got back to Gordon.
3:13It was a great show. And so it is episode six.
3:17Episode six of the upcoming Hell's Kitchen season. I can't give away any information about what I saw or the season.
3:24Except the podfather is going to be on episode six.
3:27Maybe. I love it. They could cut me. But I was in the center of the dining room looking great.
3:33And I think that there's going to be some shots where you can catch the podfather.
3:38I love it. This is your first time on reality TV.
3:42It is. Yeah. It's just it was down the road.
3:45And it was one of those things where I saw or heard that they were going to be taping.
3:51Yeah. And so I was like, I looked up.
3:54I said, I just went to Gemini and said, hey, what is the production company that runs Hell's Kitchen?
4:00And then I went to the website and then I emailed the PR address.
4:04And I was like, hey, if you guys need diners.
4:08And they got back to me like, sure. How many people and all this stuff?
4:12It was that easy. It was like sometimes you just have to ask.
4:17It's people be shocked how easy it is to get on something like that, whether it's a game show or a reality TV show.
4:24They need people all the time. All the time.
4:27And I know my claim on that one is, and you'll never be able to find this.
4:33Otherwise, I wouldn't bring it up. In 2014, I did an interview for the Auburn newspaper about students who use Adderall that aren't prescribed.
4:40CNN saw the interview in the paper. They came to my place in Auburn and did an interview with me as well.
4:47The Ricky Lake show saw that interview. And then they flew me out to California.
4:52We're in the same studio lot where they shot Arrested Development or South Park Works.
4:57And Ricky Lake brought me on the couch. The interview was nothing about Adderall.
5:01It was students who are people who are willing to do whatever it takes to cheat society.
5:07I had no idea that was the theme of the show.
5:10You cannot find it. Trust me. I've tried. I've been on reality TV, my friend, and it's an experience.
5:16They got you, man. They got you. I remember Ricky Lake.
5:20There was a time when I had a little bit of a crush on Ricky Lake.
5:25I was going to say that your tone shifted into, I was going to say, did he?
5:30Did he want to? Where is this going? A little romantic side of you.
5:35Younger days. I mean, I have no idea where she is now.
5:39I haven't followed her career at all. But when I was a kid, Ricky Lake was on.
5:44That was a very popular daytime television. And I was like, I can see it.
5:49That was the pre-9-11 American reality TV. It was just different.
5:52Pre-9-11? There's no reason to use 9-11 at all.
5:55You're like, this is my random reference boy. That's my BC AD is 9-11.
6:00And I think it's okay. I was in my developmental years when that was going on.
6:05I mean, it was bad. It was bad. It's an interesting reference point.
6:09It was certainly a horrific event. I was genuinely scared because I was working in the Capitol when it happened.
6:15So I was working for Senator Collins. She's still here.
6:18She's still going to work. This woman was a workhorse.
6:22She was a workhorse then. I worked in the media department of her office.
6:26The checks out. Where we put together the newspaper clippings.
6:29Sure. So there's newspaper clippings from local Maine newspapers that might be noteworthy.
6:33Yeah. About mill closing and things of that nature.
6:36The mill closing. That's like- Yeah, the mill. No, that's true.
6:40But the mill would be closing. Or there was like a potato worms.
6:44Or there was a blight on the blueberries. Right?
6:47Or there was a disease. The lobster. Lobster. Is this when Lassie was still solving crimes?
6:52What was going on? This is like Dust Bowl America turn of the century.
6:56That's right. That's what Maine, lumber, blueberries, potatoes, and lobsters.
7:00And vacation rentals. That's the economy. That's right there.
7:02And I just gave you all the full list.
7:05Perfect. Of the state of Maine economy. And so, yeah.
7:09Still going on like that, isn't it? Those are still big issues there, if I'm not mistaken.
7:14It's all still there. Nothing's changed. It is a time capsule state for sure.
7:18Oh, I gotta love it. Susan Collins is very much like a time capsule senator.
7:23Like, I can't believe she's still grinding. That makes all the sense in the world.
7:28That makes all that checks out. She's still grinding.
7:31So, I was doing the clips. Like, I would have to get up.
7:35I would have to get there early. I was the first one to get there in the morning.
7:41Because I had to get all the newspapers together.
7:44It was kind of a fun job, to be honest.
7:47Just to like, you know, dude, there was a year there where I would shock my parents with my knowledge of what
7:54was going on in Kennebunk, in Lewiston. You know, and I'd be like, hey, did you hear about this?
8:00And my parents were like, no, I didn't hear.
8:03How do you know? I'm like, I follow all the newspapers.
8:06Yeah. And now you've just lifted and shifted that to the Rams backfield or the Jaguars tight end room.
8:12You were building the foundation for what went to come.
8:16We're going to get to that. But my office was the one office that had the television.
8:21And it was always tuned to CNN. And I was the first one in the office to raise my hand and go, everybody, we got a problem.
8:30I think we got to get the hell out of here.
8:33Ooh. You sound the alarm. Well, I did it though.
8:36I didn't pull an alarm or anything, but I was talking to the office manager.
8:41I had brought the office manager in. I said, can you look at the television right now?
8:47A second plane just hit. Yeah. And I don't think this is a coincidence and look where we are.
8:53We probably should go. So yeah. Target number. I would be, I would be freaking out if I was there while that was going on.
9:01Are you kidding me? No, it was, it was weird.
9:04And then I saw the smoke billowing from the Pentagon.
9:07And I was like, oh my God. And they shut down the train system.
9:11So I had to walk from Capitol Hill to Arlington, Virginia with a mass of people.
9:17Yeah. Where it was the, like the Constitution Ave was filled with people walking.
9:21It was the apocalypse. Are all batteries the same?
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10:09Yes. Were they, was everybody on the same page panic-wise or was it just kind of like nobody knew what to do?
10:16No one was panicking. Everyone was just in a daze walking.
10:20Everyone was just muttering to themselves, looking at, you know, didn't have smartphones back then.
10:24So most people were just like kind of walking around, looking around in shock.
10:29It's kind of weird. Like I don't have great memories.
10:32I have little snippet memories. I don't have a great memory of it.
10:36Like I think it just, it just, it just was very creepy.
10:40Very weird. That's how it goes with watershed, high stress moments like that.
10:44Even if the stress is quickly, it's just like snapping out of like a dream or something where you can't really recall the dream.
10:52You can just recall what the dream was about.
10:55Yeah. It's, it's weird. I remember very clearly looking over and seeing that one of the towers was on fire.
11:01And then I remember very clearly seeing the second plane hit, like watching television for that 10 minute period of time.
11:08I remember very vividly. And then I have a couple of glimpses and then I remember being home, but the rest of
11:15it was like, yeah, I was in a heightened state.
11:18And like, I have, it's almost like the full memory wipe.
11:22It's very weird. The chat's letting us know what they had going on as well.
11:26Look at this cathartic start to the weekend that we have going on here, man.
11:31We've got currency traders at the SPS and P Jamie was sent home and closed the college.
11:37Yeah. Let us know in the chat. Let us know in the comments, what you, if you, if you remember that day,
11:44this is T I like this because we hold Chuck accountable.
11:47Chuck just wants to throw stuff out there, right?
11:50Chuck wants to throw big world events that, you know, for shock value.
11:54And then we hold them accountable. Like, well, Chuck, if you're going to, you want to go nine 11, we'll talk nine 11.
12:02I'm going to have to be accountable here on, on rises and followers.
12:06I'm going to have to be prepared to have some of these conversations that maybe I've been, maybe I've been punting on for a long time.
12:14We can use this as a, as a therapeutic way for growth, for maturity.
12:18And yeah, nobody ever calls me out. So I appreciate the, the followup here.
12:23It feels like reality TV. Well, I'm, I'm pleased that the, the, the world cup has been, has gone off without a hitch and OTAs.
12:31There really haven't been hardly any injuries. Have you noticed this now?
12:35Nothing that wasn't already lingering or came from previous season.
12:38Nothing like that. Big question mark this year, big question mark.
12:41So you know how these NFL teams, the big trend is that they're going more jumbo packages, 13 personnel, three heavy persons.
12:48It's a heavy personnel summer right now. It's heavy personnel summer, but you also know that defensive coordinators aren't idiots.
12:55They're not just sitting back going, geez, I hope they will go 13 personnel.
12:59We're screwed. Yeah. That's not, no, that they're already preparing for that.
13:03And they already prepared for it in the draft with this, you know, an influx of edge rushers and sort of jumbo
13:10linebackers, which tells me that over the last couple of years, we, it was as healthy as our running backs have been in my history in this business.
13:19Where it's like, you look up in 16 games played for Saquon Barkley and all these running backs, you know, like, Hey,
13:26last year, remember Christian McCaffrey never, never touched the injury report.
13:30It was like, what's happening. And one of those reasons was a lot of these, these teams are going 11 personnel and
13:37defenses reacted by basically having a base nickel package.
13:39And there's just less violent collisions with running backs with these size speed specimens, but things are changing as the defensive personnel gets bigger, faster, stronger.
13:48It puts the running backs in more jeopardy. So that is a, and I'd love to know that in the chat and the comments, let us know.
13:56You can even email me at podfather at rotor wonder world.com.
14:00You have an opinion on this. Do you think we're going to see a reversion to the mean historically and a lot more running back injuries?
14:08Because that, that will really make or break a bunch of teams this year.
14:13That'll, that'll determine the viability of zero running back, even hero running back.
14:17I think that I am predisposed to assume we're going to revert to the mean.
14:22And then when you add this additional factor, right, the, the, these additional data points where it's, it's, it's, it's going to push.
14:29I think it's going to, it's really going to push running back availability.
14:33Yeah. The, the, the, how, how defensive packages are going to have to adjust to these jumbo offensive packages.
14:39Yeah. I think we're going to see more running back injuries.
14:43I think it was going to be a bunch of big name running backs that missed the majority of the season.
14:49We haven't seen that in a handful of years.
14:52If that happens and many fantasy gamers are not prepared for that.
14:56Those of us that are, those of us that have some zero RB teams and some hero RB teams are going to clean up.
15:04It's going to be really interesting because to speak to like the running back health and security.
15:09I mean, so many of these guys feel like they're not in committees or even close to being in it.
15:16And a lot of these teams that did that we feel like are shifting towards this heavy personnel usage.
15:22They're pretty good offenses. I mean, the saints, Jaguars, Rams, bears, obviously the Seahawks are the, are the chargers going to do
15:29that with McDaniel coming over in the additions of Charlie Kolar and David Njoku.
15:33It'll just be interesting to see how that shakes out.
15:36If I'm defensive coordinators, I would imagine that you're just going to look at the tendencies these teams have and say, I
15:43don't care if you're coming out in this personnel, you throw on this down typically, or you throw it this down in distance.
15:51And we're just going to match that match the tendency as opposed to actually match the, the sets that are coming out.
15:58Cause I'm with you. I mean, it's been the pendulum swings and sometimes it's as quickly as one year.
16:04Sometimes it takes two years, but how much impact it actually ends up having overall.
16:08I think it'll just be based upon the personnel.
16:11These teams run out. I mean, Miami is going to try it, but is Miami going to be even capable of doing that?
16:19That I'm not sure of, but if we're going to take advantage, you know, this is the show to do it on.
16:26Who do you think is the best value in all of fantasy right now?
16:30The single best value in all of fantasy right now.
16:33That's such a great question. My gut wants to say Brian Thomas Jr.
16:38Just because of how far he's fallen, but I am just becoming absolutely in love, enamored with Quentin Johnston and his ADP.
16:45And that's going to be on our risers and fallers list right now.
16:49Um, I was going back and trying to find some historical comps for guys that I feel like are in similar situations
16:56to Quentin Johnston that had that breakout in like year three or four with a new offensive coordinator coming in.
17:02And we had Robert Woods in 2017, Marvin Jones, 2017, Chris Godwin, 2019, Jacoby Myers and Nico Collins in 2023, George Pickens last year.
17:10Um, I'm going to call that a breakout because of just how much separation there was from his previous statistical campaigns.
17:16Oh, it was a total breakout. Yeah. Big time.
17:19I've, I've heard some pushback on that saying we already knew, but no, we didn't know.
17:24And then Christian Kirk in 2022 is my last one.
17:28And obviously that's not an apples to apples because all those guys are different builds, different schemes, different roles.
17:34But just as far as identifying a player that we think can bring a certain level of value to his offense paired
17:41with a coordinator or head coach that has maximized the most of the value of players everywhere.
17:46He's gone. Even if it's only been a couple of places, mind you, um, I'm primed, baby.
17:52I'm primed for that QJ. Yeah. I have some news up on the screen.
17:56Player profile.com slash news player profile.com slash news. Quinton Johnson set up for more yak in 2026 charges writer, Omar Navarro observed
18:03that Mike McDaniel scheme is set up for yards after the catch, particularly when targeting Quinton Johnston.
18:08I don't like Quinton Johnston and I am drafting Quinton Johnston.
18:12Love it. That's all you need to know. There's two players that I really, uh, don't like, and I am drafting them this year.
18:20And Quinton Johnston is one of them. A player I do like is Trey Harris.
18:24And there's also some, some news about Trey Harris.
18:27Okay. Sports illustrated is Albert Breer, Albert Breer tagged Trey Harris as a sleeper and a breakout wouldn't surprise him.
18:34And what does that mean? You'll, you'll see that's also right above the lad McConkie hamstring strain news item.
18:40So on the player profiler, when you go to a player news item, you also see the related player news for like
18:47lad McConkie news, Justin Herbert news when you're on Trey Harris.
18:50So it's all right there for you, right there on player profile.com.
18:54There's a news and media tab on every player.
18:57Trey Harris is set up for success. I really think that the steam that has propelled lad McConkie the last couple months,
19:04that's, that's where the, the, the ADP arbitrage is with the chargers.
19:08I like lad McConkie. I don't like Quinton Johnston, but I'm not drafting lad McConkie and I am drafting Quinton Johnston because I don't hate players.
19:16I hate ADPs and if he is that inexpensive and he's on one of the best offenses, one of the best projected offenses for 2026.
19:24And he does have big play potential. Then you have to just, you have to just draft him.
19:30You have to just hold your nose and draft him.
19:33The thing I like about Trey Harris is he's a player actually like, and then you can also take advantage of the
19:40fact that this offense is going to, is going to really take a big step forward this year.
19:46Everybody knows it. Everybody's already talked about it. Everyone's familiar with the left tackles being healthy for the first time in a
19:53couple of years and everyone sort of in their prime.
19:56Justin Herbert's 28 years old. Yeah. Trey Harris going into his second year, Quinton Johnson going into his last year of the chargers.
20:03Maybe, maybe not lad McConkie in a super prime.
20:06You have a, you have a second year for a Marion Hampton second year for Rondé Gazton Jr.
20:12Or the second, I'm not sure why not. But the second, okay.
20:16The second fine. They bring in Charlie Kohler for the heavy packages.
20:20They pay him a bunch of money. It's like, it's not offensive continuity.
20:24It's actually the opposite. There's a lot of, there's a lot of change, but it's all positive.
20:29It's all guys from last year have gotten better, more experienced or healthy.
20:33That's why so many people are so into the chargers.
20:37And yeah, a Marion Hampton is a smash. I want a Marion Hampton.
20:41But that doesn't necessarily mean you pay the iron price for everybody.
20:45In the case of lad McConkie, there's two wide receivers that are much better values.
20:49Yeah. Much better values. And then also where lad's going, much better values than him.
20:54And I've been really messing around a lot lately with, thank you, John.
20:58I appreciate that. But with just checking in on the FFPC rankings and just kind of get an idea of like where
21:05some of these big dollar ADPs are going on with these high leverage leagues.
21:10And I mean, where lad's going and the guys going around him, I'm just much more fond of as to ports where
21:17when you get down to QJ and you're looking at like Jordan Addison, Makai Lemon, Casey Concepcion, and even just a little bit higher guys.
21:25I prefer him over like a Michael Pittman or a Jaden Reed.
21:29I'm just in. I'm just in on this. And it's not going to be a long-term fling.
21:34It's going to be here for a good time, not a long time.
21:38And then we'll find the guy next year. I'm in a dynasty startup right now.
21:43And I took Jalen Coker and Jaden Reed. And I thought I was going to complete the trifecta with Trey Harris with the next pick.
21:51And I got sniped. Do you want to call out who sniped you right now?
21:56You want to dog them? It's too bad, man.
21:59Too bad. I have to ask you. So you mentioned Jalen Coker.
22:02And I think that's an interesting transition here. So Brandon Ayuk is eager to sign with the commanders, right?
22:08If Brandon Ayuk shows up to 49ers camp and they cut him, trade him, whatever they got to do, and he signs
22:15with the commanders, do you think that Brandon Ayuk shoots up into that like Jalen Coker, Alec Pierce kind of Michael Pittman range immediately?
22:23Or do you think people are a little bit more bearish because of the internet shenanigans he's pulling on the crowd?
22:30Well, the one thing that I'm seeing on Instagram is that this guy wants to play football.
22:35But that's interesting to me, right? Right. So I like that he cares.
22:39I like that he wants to get out there.
22:42It's just how much has he been working on his strength and conditioning?
22:46I don't know. My suspicion is not much. His reputation has been one of someone who is very talented and has some
22:53impressive seasons with his advanced metrics, but he generally has been coasting, generally has not been getting along with coaches, teammates, et cetera.
23:01So that's a player I'm just not that interested in very much.
23:05And also you have a team, the commanders, generally, if you're going to talk about a top five Russian quarterback, think about
23:12like Baltimore, you can go down the board, Buffalo.
23:15You're not super excited about wide receiver, two wide receiver, three of those offenses.
23:19Sure. It's almost always a mistake. Like the targets just aren't there.
23:23And my mode of operating is, okay, let's find the wide receiver one.
23:27And do I like him in Buffalo? I do like DJ more this year.
23:31Of course, in Baltimore, I love Zay Flowers. Who doesn't?
23:35Zay Flowers want to get a huge contract, right?
23:37And in Washington, I don't need to look past scary Terry, man.
23:41You don't need to distract me with this Brandon Ayuk, right?
23:45It's Terry, Terry, Terry, and more Terry. That's where the targets are going to go.
23:50And then there's going to be like a breakout at tight end.
23:53I'm just not sure it's going to be Chick.
23:56We'll see. See, I remember a day where it was that in Pittsburgh, right?
24:01In Pittsburgh. Remember, there was all this talk in Pittsburgh about a big tight end breakout that didn't happen recently.
24:07Do you know what I'm talking about? Talking about the move?
24:11No, not not Fryer Muth. The other guy. He's now a free agent.
24:15Come on. John. John. His name is John O Smith.
24:18Yeah. Okay. Chig Akanku is comparable to John O Smith.
24:21And the problem, what happened to John O Smith was that they also liked him in a hybrid H-back role.
24:28And they thought of Pat Fryer Muth as very much like a traditional inline tight end who also can run routes and he can be everything.
24:36And then they have, then they brought in Darnell Washington and there was like three guys.
24:41I see Sennett as the Friar Muth and I see Chig as the John O Smith.
24:46So I'm very, I'm reticent to just run out to best case scenario on John on Chig Akanku.
24:52I've seen some drafts where he goes fairly early and I'm like, are we sure about this?
24:57I'm not so sure. And then you do, then you start seeing news items where you go to play your profilers, start seeing news items.
25:05You're like, Oh, look at that. Yeah. You know, people around the commanders are talking about Ben Sennett having a great camp
25:12and it's not like they vastly overpaid for Chig Akanku.
25:15It's like Chig Akanku has this history of production that's unassailable.
25:19Yeah. I mean, Ben Sennett, when he came out of Kansas state, he had like the number three athleticism score in the class.
25:26And then, yeah, he hasn't been that productive, but I mean, he, he did more than double his receptions from 2024 to 2025 went from five to 11.
25:35But tight ends sometimes take a while to break out.
25:38And if they have the athleticism, 98th percentile burst score, 95th percentile agility score, they have that baseline athleticism.
25:44I am going to give that player the benefit of the doubt, especially if he has the draft capital behind him, the second round pick.
25:52So I'm not just penciling in Chig. I think that's, that's the other player on Washington, whether there's IUC there or not
25:59that I'd be interested in, in tight end premium leagues and dynasty leagues, getting some Senate as well as again, all the scary Terry I can.
26:08Yeah. I mean, it's very common to see tight ends not break out until they're at age 25, age 26 season.
26:14And the thing with Chig is, and this was like, you know, any detractors, this was the first thing they would point
26:22to when he signed there is that if he's not on the, if he's not on the field playing in line, like
26:29you said, and he has to be in the slot, then he's just not going to see the field enough to warrant,
26:36not just a breakout, but even where his ADP is going right now.
26:40Um, you know, they have David Blau coming up.
26:43We don't know exactly the scheme he's going to run to a T, um, they'd hired from within.
26:48So we might see some concepts that they, um, they maxed out last year with cliff Kingsbury.
26:54But I mean, for the most part, I just, I think people are expecting something that I'm not sure we've seen is
27:01can be there or is going to be there.
27:04And so, uh, if you're chasing that kind of upside, especially in dynasty, I would much prefer the guy who has, you
27:11know, what do we have him right now? We have best comparable for Ben Sinnott is Cole commit and Cole commit is
27:18going to be a guy that I think is going to piss a lot of people off this year.
27:24In the, uh, if you needed a reason to go Tyler Warren over Colson Loveland, the answer is Cole commit.
27:30That's the reason that is absolutely the reason. And you noticed I, I, I do this work.
27:36We do this work for the people so they don't have to do the dirty work where we're reading all these articles, we're consuming everything.
27:44We're finding these nuggets in these buried in these ESPN articles where John Keem says Senate was a point of emphasis during Washington's entire off season program.
27:52One in which a con who participated. And it's not like a con who broke out early either.
27:58So it's like, what are we talking about? Is a 24 year old tight end with an athletic profile, second round pick
28:05year three gets an opportunity cashes in. It makes perfect sense.
28:08I mean, it got like a 22% plus dominator rating in college.
28:12He was very productive at Kansas state as well.
28:15It's not just an athletic guy. So that's, that's one of those where I'm in a tight end premium startup or I'm
28:22in a, just a tight end premium dynasty league in general, um, or deep best ball, especially deep best ball, tight end premium, like on FFPC.
28:30A guy like Ben Sinnott is very interesting. He's going to be on the field.
28:35He's going to see a major spike in his usage and yeah, put up over, over 675 yards in his final year
28:42at Kansas state, his age 21 season. Then he comes right out.
28:46You know what? I'm getting a feeling for, for him.
28:49And now the granted this guy showed a little bit more his rookie year, but when you look at the quarterback, you
28:56look at the new coordinator coming in, you look at just, you know, vibes.
29:01I'm getting the Mark Andrew breakout kind of maybe a mini version of that at some point, maybe we, it takes two years to get there.
29:09Um, but just as far as that, the quarterback who's throwing him the ball, Mark Andrews was fighting against three other tight ends fighting against Hayden Hurst.
29:18And, um, one other guy that I'm blanking on right now, the other good blocker on that roster, but, um, there was just, you know, the guys.
29:26And the reason that came to my mind is because if you followed the beat reports and the camp reports leading up
29:33to that 2019 season, it was like Mark Andrews is showing that he's going to be the guy.
29:39This is going to be his favorite target. The breakout is coming.
29:43And I just think that not enough people follow up on the nitty gritty of the day to day when there's stuff
29:50like Terry on Arnold getting arrested and everybody just wants to talk about that.
29:54Well, I definitely don't want to talk about that.
29:57The only reason I would even talk about that is because it's just yet we can move on.
30:03It's just yet more evidence that they're going to throw a lot in Detroit.
30:07And I want all the Amon Ross St. Brown.
30:10And I mentioned earlier, there are players I don't like that I'm drafting.
30:14This just happened to me in a startup. I don't like Jamison Williams, but I looked around and I have zero Jamison Williams.
30:22He was slipping. It's start three receivers, full PPR.
30:25And I was like, I age 25. I got to push the button on Jamo just based on the volume they're going to get.
30:32And some of these spike weeks that he put together last year were really impressive, especially in the second half.
30:39Looking at that second half from Jamison Williams, I'm like, wow, if he can just replicate what he did in the second
30:46half, he'd be more look, he'd be close to like more 1400 yards.
30:50Yeah. He's got really incredible. So that that's another player where I am wanting fantasy, wanting Isaac Tesla to happen.
30:56Okay. I want it to happen, please. I want Ryan Flournoy to happen.
31:00Right. But it's not like I'm going to not draft lamb and pickings.
31:05And the same thing with the lions. You got to pound, just, just hammer.
31:09Look at our dynasty rankings. You might be surprised how high I'm on Ross St.
31:14Brown is like I'm on Ross. St. Brown's knocking on the door of the, of the absolute top tier of the fantasy
31:21dynasty rankings among wide receivers and is primarily driven by his projection for this season.
31:26It is bananas, but that is a reason why a guy like Tesla is a great best ball play because this is
31:33one of those teams that they're not going to be running as much 12 and 13 personnel.
31:38They certainly don't have a third. They have, they have a Brock, right?
31:42Uh, as a Brock who Brock, what, what is it?
31:45Brock? I think this is a John who Smith all over again, where I'm like, I can't even remember.
31:51It's not Brock Bowers, right? It's, it's, it's the inline blocking.
31:55Right. Right. Right. Right. I was like, Brock Johnny.
31:58What are these guys names? Yeah. Oh yeah. Common name Smith.
32:01Right. So Brock, right. Is the blocking tight end.
32:04Right. But it's not like they have three or four tight ends that they can go to.
32:10They don't. They're probably going to run a lot more 11 personnel than the average team, especially because they're going to be
32:17losing a lot because they don't have a secondary.
32:20So they're going to have to throw. Right. So that's the takeaway there.
32:24Right. Okay. So moving on another news item that I, I want to make sure did not go unnoticed by everyone in this audience.
32:31Go to player profile.com slash news. Matthew Stafford. So I saw headlines.
32:35This is the other thing. A lot of places get the headlines wrong where I saw the headline was Matthew Stafford's year to year.
32:43Almost think almost where it was. It's it's it's the beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
32:49The fantasy analysis is in the eye of the beholder.
32:52It was like, Oh man, Matthew Stafford's only year to year.
32:55Yeah. No shit. He's year to year. That's essentially the contract he signed with all these void years.
33:01And then every year they have to, they're, they're all, all parties are incentivized to go renegotiate every year.
33:07He's doing the LeBron. So what LeBron does push, push this, push the, the retirement out one more year, push it one
33:14more year, push it one more year, roll it over, roll over the cap hit, roll over the cap hit.
33:20Fine, fine, fine, fine, fine, fine, fine. In that article, instead of focusing on the fact that he's year to year, which duh, right?
33:28Thank you for stating the obvious. If you keep reading, he says it, it was, it was the podcast was, you could
33:35check out the podcast called the green light podcast.
33:38Okay. And yes, he's on a year to year timeline.
33:41No shit. But he talked about how these legendary signal callers, Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers, many others play into their forties and he's 38.
33:49And then as you know, on player profile, or we give this specific fraction of his age, he's 38.3, which means he's
33:56going to play out this season at age 38 next year.
33:59He's going to be age 39. And if he wants to at least try to see if he can be productive at age 40, why not?
34:08By the way, well, he'll, he'll probably be pretty, he'll probably be pretty good.
34:12He's going to have Pukun Okua. We'll see if Devante Adams is, is around at that point.
34:18They'll have plenty of time to bring in another hired gun wide receiver either way.
34:22And again, I'm in a super flex startup and Matthew Stafford just, he just keeps falling in these startups.
34:28And I'll tell you which round I drafted him in.
34:32It's, it's pretty embarrassing how far he fell based on this assumption that like he could retire this year.
34:38Now, certainly I've drafted a bunch of Ty Simpson on teams that were rebuilding and needed quarterback.
34:43And he will have value just like Mac Jones is going to have value.
34:48Just like Tyson Badgett is going to have value.
34:50These guys are going to have value. Okay. But I mean, it's the long game when I have these complete teardown teams, that's the only those teams.
34:59Am I even considering a guy like Ty Simpson?
35:02Whereas if I'm just neutral, I'm going to see, I like having some young guys that I think have max upside, like
35:09a Carnell Tate, like a Jeremiah love, uh, like a Fernando Mendoza.
35:13I like having those players because then you have optionality.
35:16Once you get into round five, six, seven, eight, you have the choice.
35:20You can start to draft some older players. So in this particular startup in round eight, eight Oh six, I go Matthew Stafford.
35:27This is a, this is a super flex league.
35:30This was after Malik Willis and Bryce Young were off the board.
35:34Are you kidding me? Those guys are never going to give you the season that the NFL MVP just gave you.
35:41And if I had to guess, if I had to put an over under on how long he plays, I would say 39.5.
35:48What does that mean? That's what his age is at the start of the season, or let's say 39.75.
35:54Okay. Just, just to make sure that there's some differentiation there, just to make sure there's between the two, the seasons he's definitely playing in 2026.
36:03He's probably playing in 2027. Then it's a coin flip, whether he plays in 2028, two and a half years of Matthew
36:10Stafford is worth a hell of a lot more than just one season of Malik Willis, because you know that Miami has one mission and one mission only.
36:19And that's get Arch Manning. No, Matthew Stafford is going to look so good in that Carolina blue in, in 2028, ripping it to Coker and McMillan.
36:27And another option. Who's going to be a free agent by then?
36:31That's going to be a lot. Maybe Mike Evans might still be hanging around.
36:35You could see a final season. Oh, it's going to look weird.
36:39It's going to look weird. And thank, thanks to Tom.
36:42Thanks to Tom for not doing that to us.
36:45I'm glad like he had Patriots in the bucks and he, and he won championships with both.
36:51And that's great. He didn't have that last season in Tennessee, like Randy Moss did in every wide receiver does.
36:57He didn't do that to us. No, at the, at the great cost of his personal, of his personal life.
37:04Um, shout out jujitsu instructors, but you know what?
37:06He was always a man who gave everything he had to the game and everything he had to us.
37:12And I've appreciated that for him. And I always will.
37:16It is. It is. Um, um, I do wish that when he would have these sit down interviews, why I love podcasts
37:23is that we can really dig into the details.
37:26I've only seen like one instance where he was on a podcast and he really was able to give anecdotes from his
37:33time at Michigan and his time in the first couple of seasons with new England to really help us understand just what
37:40that adversity looked like, where he wanted to transfer, where he was working with quarterback coaches.
37:45He was working on his mechanics. Uh, he was working with, you know, psychologists just because his, the, the way they were
37:52yo-yoing him around at Michigan was just so mentally damaging to his confidence in his psyche and like how he handled it,
37:59how he got through it, the, this, the, the mental, uh, strategies that he would use.
38:04And, and just some of the, the, the, the things he would focus on.
38:08He's like, I just wanted to get, I just wanted to get one more throw.
38:13Like, I remember him talking about at Michigan. He's like, when I first got there, I got like two throws.
38:19I get, I get to throw the ball twice with the ones.
38:23And then my next goal was to do well enough with those two that then I could get three.
38:29And then the next day, my goal was four.
38:32And like, that's interesting. Like how, how, how your mind works, how you strategize and, and get from point A to point
38:39B as an athlete, he's having a lot more of these conversations.
38:43Like I heard him talking to Zlatan and I expected them to get a little bit more into the challenges they faced and how they overcame.
38:51But it, when they, when you only have like a 10 minute television segment, they can only go surface level.
38:58And they can't talk for very long in one chunks.
39:01They have, they have a 45 seconds to 75 seconds to make their entire point.
39:06Um, and honestly doesn't even come off that well because how can you condense elite knowledge into, in such a short timeframe?
39:13He threw for 5,300 yards and 43 touchdowns at 44 years old.
39:17I don't know. A guy like that might need more than 75 seconds.
39:21Exactly. Oh goodness. All right. Where, where did we, where, where, where were we here?
39:26Uh, when is the draft kit is live? I just want to make sure that everyone knows the draft kit is live
39:33and there's been a lot of takeaways from the draft.
39:36I submitted like, uh, I, I emailed to all our subscribers, uh, patreon.com slash pod father.
39:41Also on sub stack, you can find player profiler.
39:44Uh, my favorite takeaways from the draft kit. Cause when there's the draft kit comes together, I ended up learning a lot.
39:51That's why we podcast even more. Cause I'm like, uh, uh, processing all this information that's coming in talking about some of
39:58the, some of the, the absolute biggest takeaways. Um, and then I, I sort of, uh, laid out my favorite tools that are available in the draft kit.
40:07You want to check it out? Rip it. Let's go.
40:10Let's go. So this, this, this is a little bit more about the draft kit right now.
40:15That's what we need to go because I don't like Tom Brady.
40:19I don't want to squeeze a 75 second Tucker craft take in when we can save that.
40:25Cause that storyline's not going anywhere. I'd rather hear about this.
40:28And the people would too. You know, the original player profile was just my podcasting tool that I made available to the
40:35public so that you could follow along and look up the stats while I'm looking them up and talking about them on the show.
40:43And then you're asking, well, I want to dominate my drafts.
40:46I want to know what you know about Josh Downs and Trey Harris and Jalen Coker.
40:51So that's why we have the world famous draft kit, the key team insights, the player breakdowns and the key stats that
40:58you need to know, like vacated targets, vacated touches, all there available to you with cheat sheets for every format and interactive drafting.
41:06As you draft, the players fly off the board.
41:09And this year for the first time I am publishing my personal draft cheat sheet during draft season as well as Bradley's.
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41:22The world famous draft kit is now live. It is ready.
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42:18Wow, wow, wow. Question for you, Chuck. Look, I'm in this startup.
42:22Like I said, I went hero running back. Hero running back.
42:26I have one running back, Cam Scadaboo. And we're now in the 15th round, about to be in the 16th round.
42:32I have one running back. That is how you do hero running back.
42:36Listen, it's tight end premium. I had to get a bunch of tight ends.
42:41And I'm interested what the audience has to say about this tight end strategy.
42:45I love either getting Bowers or Tyler Warren in tight end premium in the first couple rounds or wait 10 rounds and completely stay out of the middle.
42:54And then when I do pick, I want to be on opposite ends of the age spectrum.
43:00So I went Stowers, waited a couple rounds, and went Kelsey.
43:03What do you think of that? Oh, she had the old bull.
43:07Now she wants the young calf. I like – no, I'm always about the barbell approach.
43:12You got to have yin and you got to have the yang.
43:16Shout out Andrew Cooper on that one. I don't think – there's just too much data and too much vibes for those guys in the middle.
43:24Nobody likes – you ever see like people line up?
43:27The guys in the middle, they're trying too hard.
43:30They don't have enough to offer. It's the guys on the fringes, on the age fringe, on the vibes fringe.
43:37That's how you tilt lineups. That's how you tilt matchups, and that's how you throw wrenches in other people's brains, chains, all the good stuff.
43:45I was looking at – yeah, I was looking at this Travis Kelsey.
43:49You've heard of this guy, right? Travis Kelsey. That's somebody's boyfriend, right?
43:53He was the tight end three last year. Did you know that?
43:56But he was the tight end six the year before with more fantasy points.
44:01So, I mean, he had 76 catches last year, and the year before that he had 97, the year before that 93.
44:08And I went and looked back at what kind of seasons players like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates put up.
44:14And they were very productive. Age 36, age 37 seasons, they're still very productive.
44:18So, I think I'm going to – I'm basically going to – he is the Matthew Stafford of tight ends, pretty much.
44:26He's one of the few tight ends last year that had an over one point in differential from fantasy points per game compared to expected.
44:33Is that chief offense looking any different than it was last year?
44:37I don't much think so. I know some people like Xavier Worthy a little more than myself.
44:43I know Rasheed Rice will probably play a full season.
44:46But, I mean, he is steady betty there. They're bringing the gang back together.
44:50He had his best seasons with Eric Bien-Ami there.
44:53He had his worst seasons while Matt Nagy was there.
44:56Swap out these fools and just run it back.
44:59I got no problem with playing the hits. What about Tucker Craft?
45:03I don't draft Tucker Craft coming off the ACL.
45:06That's a classic stay out of the middle tight end.
45:09That's the only one of these guys that I would have to go haunt.
45:14And it's a combination of emotional. He was my – I was all about him last year and he was just an absolute beast.
45:21Everybody who's watching this program knows that. That's not new information.
45:25But I just – the evidence usually says that these guys that are elite, and I do think he is elite, when
45:32they hit the field back, they're rocking and rolling.
45:35So I expect late October he's probably going to be looking like the Tucker Craft from last year.
45:41The problem is are you willing to – the opportunity cost of drafting him in the seventh round, maybe depending on if
45:48there's a tight end run, it could even be earlier.
45:51Are you willing to punt on guys like with super high upside like Christian Watson, like Carnell Tate, like DeAndre Swift?
45:57Are you willing to punt on them for 11 games of Tucker Craft?
46:02Probably, but that's the conversation you have to have.
46:04The guy lived on Yak, and Yak is not as predictive year to year.
46:09Not as sticky as Air Yards. He only had 200 Air Yards last year in eight games.
46:14So that is my concern about Tucker Craft. It's as much the Yak reliance as it is the injury.
46:20That's enough for me to say when I'm drafting, I'm going to go scadaboo.
46:25If I can still get a workhorse running back, I can't look myself in the mirror and go Tucker Craft.
46:31I can't do it. And you won't have to do that.
46:35You should be able to do both if you wanted to.
46:38I just look at the tight end ADP, and I'm like, he might be the only tight end.
46:44And I mean all the way down whose situation got better.
46:48This is a team that offensively their philosophy is to run the ball and then live off of Yak.
46:54You're right now. How does that transfer player to player?
46:57We can't be for sure. But Bowers, McBride, Loveland, Warren, Pitts, Laporta, Fannin, Kittle, all these guys, none of their situations got any better other than maybe Loveland.
47:06And that's if you count the departure of DJ Moore.
47:09Everyone else has a worse quarterback situation or a worse head coach or their team brought in more offensive firepower.
47:15I'm holding the candle for Tucker Craft. I might just be holding it out of my ass, unfortunately.
47:21He went at the 509 in the startup. It's tight end premium.
47:25It's 0.5 premium for tight end. So he went at the 509, and I drafted Cam Scadaboo with a 606.
47:31So he was available. Again, he was available to me at the 507.
47:35However, I went Zay Flowers. You don't hate that, right?
47:39You think Zay Flowers is a good play there?
47:41I think you're getting pre-breakout Zay Flowers. I know he was the wide receiver seven last year in PPR, but he didn't have a ton.
47:49Pre-breakout Zay Flowers! He didn't have a ton of huge spike weeks, but he was just steady betty, and he was steady
47:56betty with one of the worst offensive situations from a passing game standpoint in the league last year.
48:02You bring in a guy who's a one-stop shop.
48:05Declan Doyle sounds like he's going to be a head coach somewhere next year, but let's get it now and just win the league.
48:13Win the league now. Why not? What's stopping you?
48:16Look at the explosive plays. Just look at the stats.
48:19If you go to player profile or look at Zay Flowers, the stats are incredible.
48:241,200-plus yards on 1,200 air yards. Perfect. He's giving you yak.
48:27He's giving you air yards. He's giving you a little bit of both.
48:31The quarterback situation was highly in flux. There were games where Lamar Jackson clearly wasn't 100%.
48:36Then there were games where there was no Lamar Jackson, and it was a real purgatory situation for him.
48:42And yet, he was number three in explosive plays and EPX on playerprofiler.com.
48:47Oh, my God. And they changed nothing about the offense except for they brought in the next hot head coach.
48:53I mean, and like his ranks are so high and everything on his player profiler advanced metrics page is catchable target rate.
49:00QB rating when targeted is route participation slot snaps target separation.
49:03They're all super green, baby. What else could you want?
49:072.6 yards per route run. That's just barely behind the elites.
49:10And that's indicative of a guy who is breaking out.
49:13Yeah. I mean, our cool breeze in the chat says Flowers gets any TDs and he explodes.
49:19It reminds me a little of scary Terry. Yeah.
49:22Why do you think I'm as high on those two guys as any?
49:26It's like it's Flowers. It's Terry McLaurin and it's Chris Godwin.
49:29These are the guys that I'm like in every league.
49:32Oh, by the way, remember I talked about how I ran pure?
49:36This is how pure I ran on that team.
49:39I didn't get Trey Harris, but you know, I got Coker and before that Reed and before that Josh Downs.
49:46And I also worked in Chris Godwin. So I went four receivers in a row.
49:50That's as pure as I've ever run. But the reason I did that is I had traded down for a 20, 27 third.
49:58And so I had extra picks. So it was basically four picks in the course of three rounds and then just swept up all of the wide receivers.
50:07Now I'm looking at the wide receivers and it's like, oh my God, it's so quick.
50:12They go so quick. There's this talent cliff and this opportunity cliff together in these dynasty startups where once the Cokers and
50:19the Trey Harrises are off the board, suddenly you start to talk yourself into Jawan Jennings, guys that are like 29 years
50:26old with like where the target share is uncertain.
50:29I mean, I'm looking at Elik Aumann. Like things fell apart very quickly.
50:33Jerry Judy, the one guy I could talk myself into in this area, Adni Mitchell.
50:38Adni Mitchell is the one guy I can talk myself into in this zone of ADP.
50:43But that's just how quickly the wide receiver talent vanishes.
50:46This is why I love Hero RB so much, especially in startups, because I just I have I have almost an infinite
50:53list of running backs that I want now. You know, we're going to have to we're going to have to deep dive into it.
51:01We need to do a dynasty startup, a quick one live on air or something like that.
51:06I unfortunately have to get going here. No, I do just.
51:10I know. I got the hard stuff. Shows over?
51:12Shows. Unless you want to. Oh, my God. Shows over.
51:16You want to take over for me? No, this is got.
51:19Listen, before you go. Michael Lobin, 2502 in the chat.
51:22Eyeballing Jarquez Hunter. Yes, dude. Yes. Pre-show. Pre-show. We had a nice little glaze session over Hunter.
51:28Let's go. Let's go. Because I'm here and now.
51:31Oh, they're projecting Blake Corum to have a thousand yard season.
51:34Do you know that we had this? We had this comment.
51:38We had this comment 40 minutes ago. Yeah. Talk about players that could go down with injury.
51:43You got to go down the board of all the sub 200 pound running backs that have been deployed as workhorses.
51:50They are at risk this year from Bucky Irving to Kyron Williams to Devon H.
51:55And just be careful. Be careful with your exposure to those players and set yourself up with plenty of RB threes.
52:01That could be RB ones like Sean Tucker and Jarquez Hunter.
52:05You guys download that draft kit and you're going to have all this information ready to take full advantage of it.
52:11Boom. Cheers, ladies and gentlemen. War Eagle. From the Podfather to you, I deeply appreciate you tuning in.
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52:40Use them your way to take dollars off groceries at checkout or save at the pump.
52:46You can even save up to $35 on your next fill up.
52:49Same points, more choices. And with low prices on fresh quality food plus digital and personalized offers tailored to how you shop, your dollar goes further.
52:58Redeem your points online or in the app. Fred Meyer, fresh for everyone.
53:02Restrictions apply. Seasider store for details. You can't reason with the sun.
53:06Trust us. We've tried. This summer, it's time to put that angry ball of fire on mute.
53:11Columbia's OmniShade technology is engineered to protect you from the sun's harsh rays that can burn and damage your skin.
53:17The sun is relentless, but so is our gear.
53:20Level up your summer at Columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion.
53:26You're welcome. Columbia. Engineered for whatever.
