Mind of Mansion - Colts and THIS Team are Keys to Victory

Reportedly 250 pounds with the frame to carry that weight (similar to Derrick Henry and Brandon Jacobs); RB2 in New York but close to Isaiah Davis; attractive deep stash in later rounds (round 17+) of deep seasonal and FFPC leagues where benches are loaded with running backs; outlier jumbo running back with potential for productivity despite heavier weight.

ADP in the fourth round is too late; RB14 in Player Profiler season rankings; ranked ahead of Josh Jacobs and Travis Etienne; three-down role with PPR and touchdown work; proven commodity in fantasy; will benefit from Gino Smith's presence as a competent pocket passer who will dump off and use play-action; the Breece Hall show in the backfield with minimal timeshare; will get PPR work and touchdown work if the offense is even average.

Matt Kelley notes that the Jacksonville Jaguars want to get Brenton Strange more involved in the passing game, with beat reporters talking about how much the team loves him. This ascending role represents a positive development for Strange's target opportunity going forward.

Matt Kelley is high on Brian Thomas Jr. this year and believes his ADP is suppressed relative to smart money and plugged-in players; Kelley and his team rank Thomas ahead of consensus. Thomas is in year two with Liam Cohn's offense, which has produced top-five offenses at Kentucky and in the NFL. He's a first-round wide receiver on a rookie contract with strong production value, size, and athlete profile. His 2024 season was an outlier—yards per reception and air yards were solid, but catch rate was near 50% and touchdown rate was only 4%, which Kelley views as random variance. However, Kelley tempers expectations because Jacksonville added Jacoby Myers (locked-in ~20% target share regardless of team) and Parker Washington (actively in extension negotiations with the team), and the target math doesn't add up to the upside he'd like to believe. The team also wants to get Brenton Strange more involved and Travis Hunter will be involved in gadget plays, further constraining Thomas's target environment.

Matt Kelley explicitly states 'I'm not drafting any Calvin Ridley this year. No way.' He dismisses Ridley as 'almost 32 years old now' and argues he is 'there for name' and 'veteran deference' but that 'that's not enough' to compete with younger options like Alec Eominer for the Titans' WR3 role. Kelley prefers 'the young kid who's going to give me a shot at putting up 25, 30 points' over Ridley's limited upside.

Matt Kelley calls Cam Ward 'a smash' and advises to 'take the discount' on his draft price. While acknowledging early preseason accuracy concerns and reports of erratic play, Kelley frames these as expected training camp issues and expects Ward to 'get it ironed out' by August. He emphasizes that Ward is working on footwork, strength, and conditioning, and expects the Titans offense to be pass-heavy given their weak running game and below-average defense, positioning Ward as a potential league-winner.

Matt Kelley is 'incredibly bullish on Carnell Tate,' drafting him in the mid-third round (pick 307) of a dynasty super flex startup. Kelley argues Tate was a top-five pick despite not posting top-five college production because he was overshadowed by Jeremiah Smith and Marvin Harrison at Ohio State, and possesses 'Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb level skills' with 'CD Lamb level athleticism, but more on like a Justin Jefferson frame.' Kelley expects Tate to play X receiver and initially struggle against alpha corners before eventually breaking out, with a 'buy window' in weeks 1-3 and September before he takes over from Wandale Robinson. He calls Tate 'a smash' and expects his consensus dynasty ranking to overtake Nico Collins during the season.

Matt Kelley notes Chimere Dike is competing with Alec Eominer for the Titans' WR3 role; Dike is more of a vertical threat while Eominer is a traditional all-around intermediate flanker, with both being 'very similar' in profile.

Matt Kelley does not consider Chris Olave a cornerstone asset for a dynasty team due to health concerns. While the production is there and he's a solid wide receiver target, Kelley questions whether Olave will be available for the entire year next year and prefers dependability over upside for cornerstone pieces, requiring him to taper expectations.

Matt Kelley uses DK Metcalf's third season as a comparable for what Brian Thomas Jr. could achieve. He notes that if Thomas posted the same season statistically as Metcalf's third season, it would be a great outcome, but the target environment in Jacksonville makes that less likely.

Matt Kelley drafted Fernando Mendoza at pick 406 in a startup super flex league and loves him long-term. Kelley describes Mendoza as a bigger, more athletic version of Joe Burrow—essentially a blend of CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Tom Brady. He's confident in Mendoza's long-term dynasty value.

Great option in 2025; best position is playing Z in the Jets' 12-personnel grouping with Adonai Mitchell at X; part of a consolidated target distribution on an undervalued team.

Valuable asset in deeper Super Flex and dynasty leagues where he goes incredibly late; in best ball and deep seasonal leagues, he makes sense as a third QB option; ceiling is approximately 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns (peak MVP caliber), translating to roughly QB12 performance; averaging his 2022 season (4,694 yards, 30 TDs, 18.5 PPR) with his 2024 season yields approximately 17 fantasy points per game, a realistic outcome with current weapons; not expected to return to top-five QB finishes in 12-team single-QB redraft leagues; brings stability to the Jets offense as a competent pocket passer with a history of 4,000-yard seasons; elevates the entire offense and all other skill position players; replaces a mobile QB with a weak arm, enabling more traditional play-action and dump-off plays that benefit the running back and receiving corps; the domestic incident investigation does not change his draft value or likelihood of playing.

Matt Kelley is coming around on George Pickens after being completely off him last year. Pickens went at pick 305 in a startup super flex league, two picks before Carnell Tate. Kelley acknowledges the talent is there but was concerned about situational certainty and contract situation in Dallas; however, he's now confident enough to draft Pickens in the third round of a super flex startup. Last year Pickens had 137 targets (30+ more than ever before), over 1300 air yards for the fourth straight season, and finished as WR5 with 16 fantasy points per game. Kelley projects more reasonable 16 fantasy points per game going forward. At age 25, Kelley would draft him right around Carnell Tate and likes both. If Pickens leaves Dallas, he'll likely get a mega contract elsewhere with a team that doesn't have another star receiver, making him the guy. Kelley sees him as a slam in dynasty and is very confident pushing the button on him in the third round.

Matt Kelley highlights Gunnar Helm as a 23-year-old tight end 'no one talks about' who is the starting tight end for the Titans; he is 'locked and loaded, ready to go as our tight end one right now' in Kelley's dynasty league. Kelley expects the Titans to run 11 personnel (three receiver sets) given their thin tight end room, making Helm interesting as a target option in a pass-heavy offense expected to take a big step forward with Cam Ward.

Almost as good as Braylon Allen as RB2 in New York; attractive deep stash in later rounds (round 17+) of deep seasonal and FFPC leagues; if Braylon Allen is injured, Isaiah Davis becomes a factor; comparable talent profile to the RB2 despite RB3 designation.

Valuable backup QB option in Superflex and Dynasty Superflex formats; not a top-10 pick but has guile and gumption; extends plays and makes things happen; proven value who can score 450+ yards and 4-5 touchdowns; goes late in drafts because people forget about him; in Superflex Dynasty leagues, he is a target for the third QB slot.

Matt Kelley drafted Jamison Williams in a startup super flex league despite not typically drafting him, because the value was too good to pass up. In a start-three-receivers format, getting four receivers in the first seven rounds made sense.

Matt Kelley projects Jaden Daniels to finish with 600-700 rushing yards this season. He believes the Washington offense will put up points with the pieces they have, though the ambiguous running back room will cause issues. Daniels is coming into his second year with more experience and film study, and Kelley expects the offense to be productive.

Matt Kelley loves Jerome Ford's production and size; he's available in a super ambiguous Commanders backfield and could emerge if Katron Allen isn't ready or Kross Merritt disappoints. Ford has been an efficient runner in the past, and with Jaden Daniels at QB, linebackers will be frozen, giving Ford angles he didn't get in previous years. Kelley specifically targets Ford in dynasty leagues where he's available and sees him as a potential breakout if given early-down carries.

Referenced as an example of how fantasy players should not jump to conclusions about off-field incidents; Josh Jacobs tanked in ADP after an incident, then corrected over subsequent weeks, demonstrating that initial panic is often unwarranted.

Matt Kelley identifies Mac Jones as 'by far and away the easiest one' to target as a QB3/QB4 backup option in super flex dynasty startups, expecting him to generate fantasy value if he gets playing time.

Matt Kelley notes that Jacksonville is actively in negotiations to extend Parker Washington, which is significant because the team is not publicly discussing it (likely to avoid inflating his value in negotiations). Beat reporters are talking about how good Parker Washington has looked, and the team wants to extend him. This ascending role for Parker Washington represents a positive development for his dynasty value and target share going forward.

Matt Kelley targets Riley Leonard as a QB3/QB4 option in dynasty startups for his scramble ability and potential to be a tradable asset if he gets playing time; described as 'the bankrupt man's version of Jackson Dart,' suggesting he will generate fantasy production as a backup QB in super flex dynasty leagues even if he doesn't help the Colts offense.

Ranked below Breece Hall (RB14) and Cam Scadaboo (RB16) in Player Profiler season rankings; positioned behind both backs in draft value.

Matt Kelley notes that Travis Hunter will be involved in gadget plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars, which is a factor in the crowded target environment affecting the offense's receiving options.

If Cam Scadaboo is not available, Tyrone Tracy is the next target in the Giants backfield; will have weeks due to his all-purpose skill set in a run-heavy offense with many touches available for running backs.

Matt Kelley projects Wandale Robinson will command 150 targets on the Titans and get another 100 receptions. He notes Robinson posted league-low yards per target in 2024 but improved to league average, finishing as WR14. Kelley expects Robinson to be 'very popular to start the first four to six weeks until Carnell Tate takes that rollover,' but believes the expanded Titans passing game will allow Robinson to reach his targets regardless of Tate's emergence due to the larger overall target pie.

Matt Kelley is 'very, very, very high' on Zay Flowers, ranking him WR14 in seasonal leagues ahead of Rashi Rice. He notes that Declan Doyle's reported offensive innovations for the Ravens will increase touches for their best players, and Flowers is that player. Kelley argues Flowers 'has a better all around game than Rashi Rice' and 'has a more established role than Rashi Rice on a lot of levels,' though he acknowledges the news about Doyle's scheme changes is 'a puff piece' and may only move Flowers up a spot or two in rankings.