Dynasty Underground - ADPs to TARGET and FADE in Dynasty Startup Drafts!

Going at 509 in fifth-round startups, analyst believes you'll get better than 509 production for the next couple of years from him in a win-now build.

Robinson could easily be a third-round pick in startups next year and should be in the Chase Brown range at the very least, given his big playability in the Falcons offense at his age.

Bo Nix is available at ADP 401 (or 311 as of May 1st), representing significant value as a late-round quarterback option with rushing upside, though the analyst is not a huge fan of the player.

Brian Thomas Jr. was the biggest faller in year-over-year ADP movement, representing a significant decline from his previous valuation in dynasty startup drafts.

Thomas was a huge fade last offseason but the hate may have gone too far; his true value probably lies somewhere in between and he should be valued in the late fourth to early fifth round range.

Thomas is a freak athlete and the 'prince that was promised' on Jacksonville's offense, but faces target competition from Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, and Travis Hunter.

Brock Bowers is the odds-on favorite to be the tight end one in redraft 2026, though Colston Loveland is positioned as a strong alternative if given odds.

Fifth-round running back who analyst is fading and would not draft at this ADP.

Quarterback available in the eighth round who analyst successfully drafted and prefers over taking Fernando Mendoza early. Better value than drafting a rookie pick in the third round.

Stroud is someone the analyst would be happy to catch the falling knife with in the eighth round, representing good value at that stage.

Analyst has Caleb Williams as his quarterback 3 in dynasty, indicating strong confidence in his long-term value despite being ahead of his ADP.

Ward can be a strong quarterback producer and is expected to throw for 4,000 yards and reach near 30 touchdowns; he has less risk of losing his starting job in 2026 compared to Shuck and represents better stability.

Wide receiver 15 going at 408 in startups, but analyst prefers Luther Burden over him, having Burden ahead by a couple spots. The archetype difference (X receiver vs. slot flanker) favors Burden in PPR leagues.

26-year-old running back without draft capital who is a sell in the fourth round when compared to Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, and Travion Henderson, all of whom have longer runways despite Brown's strong redraft value.

Wide receiver 13 who analyst would have ahead of George Pickens despite concussion concerns. Analyst notes he had a better collegiate profile and has proven to be a consistent performer.

Watson has massive upside with top-10 wide receiver production potential if healthy; in the last 10 weeks of 2025, he was 14th in receiving yards, 8th in yards per route run, 5th in touchdowns, 3rd in deep targets, and 5th in fantasy points per route run (0.58).

Watson's main risk is injury, which is a significant concern that keeps him from being drafted higher despite his upside potential.

Watson's current ADP is around wide receiver 34-36 in the back of the eighth round, but his recent production suggests he could be valued in the 20s based on upside alone.

Hubbard is an absolute afterthought for fantasy gamers but could have a decent year in dynasty; Jonathan Brooks is no sure thing and Rico Dowdle is no longer in the picture, making Hubbard the workhorse.

Colston Loveland is the analyst's top tight end target in dynasty startups, positioned as either the first or second option in Chicago's offense with significant upside potential.

Colston Loveland is the safest of the three Bears assets (Loveland, Rome, Burden) and is being deployed in ways that will take his route tree to the next level according to Ben Johnson.

Colston Loveland could easily be the tight end one in redraft in 2026, with the analyst believing he's a very good bet for that outcome and willing to take him at odds against Brock Bowers.

Colston Loveland is currently at ADP 305 (as of May 1st) with a 74% chance of being available at pick 301, representing strong value for a tight end with elite upside potential.

Colston Loveland's ADP is spiking upward significantly, moving from late second round territory and showing parabolic growth in value as of June 4th.

Analyst has Colston Loveland as his tight end 2 in dynasty, indicating strong confidence in his long-term value as a Bears pass-catcher.

DJ Moore is gone from the Bears, creating a consolidated target share opportunity for remaining receivers like Colston Loveland.

Analyst traded for DJ Moore, noting that many people are down on him and he's been difficult to sell for years. Represents a value opportunity when someone is willing to trade for him.

Kincaid is easy money at tight end 12 ADP (around 9-11 overall); he was super efficient per route run and just needs 70% snap share to have viability as a trusted Josh Allen target.

Sixth-round receiver who also benefited from A.J. Brown's departure but analyst gives the edge to rookie Makai Lemon due to age and the fact that Smith hasn't beaten out another alpha in his own offense.

Smith has not beaten out another alpha in his own offense for years; while the Eagles have faith in him, Makai Lemon as a rookie may be positioned to soak up more targets and play a more prominent role.

Smith has received too few targets over the last couple of seasons to reach the heights desired for a player of his caliber, though the Eagles' offensive coordinator change and new personnel may improve the situation.

Drake May has risen dramatically in dynasty startup ADP, moving from QB5 last year to QB2 this year, representing one of the biggest year-over-year risers on the OTC tool.

Quarterback 15 at 506 ADP who analyst would rather wait on. Going too early when quarterbacks like Jordan Love (510) and Jared Goff (703) are available later. Likely to fall below this ADP next year.

25-year-old wide receiver who has dominated targets since entering the NFL despite playing with poor quarterbacks. Analyst recommends buying him as a fourth-round value.

Wide receiver 10 at 510 ADP who analyst would rather fade in favor of younger receivers like Luther Burden and Chris Olave. On a franchise tag with uncertainty about his future with the Cowboys beyond 2027.

Harold Fannin is the number five riser in year-over-year ADP movement, showing significant value appreciation in dynasty startup drafts.

Price is a first-round running back that is not a great value; he was barely a first-round running back on a team known for benching first-round running backs in favor of more productive undrafted players.

Williams is going at wide receiver 28 and represents value; despite dunking on drafters two straight years with infuriating goose eggs, he has finished as a top-15 wide receiver and is worth targeting in this range.

Quarterback going at 703 ADP, nearly two full rounds after Fernando Mendoza and Jordan Love, illustrating the gap in quarterback valuations.

Williams' wheels could fall off at any point, not necessarily due to injury but potentially because the Cowboys may try out other players in his role.

Waddle at wide receiver 29 is an absolute steal and represents the line of demarcation for young stud wide receivers; he is a clear wide receiver one for his own team and still relatively young.

Jeremiah Love is going at RB4 (ADP 206), five picks after Ashton Gentry, representing potential value in the running back position.

Joe Burrow is highlighted as having a historically high and consistently high touchdown rate, making him one of the few elite quarterbacks worth considering in early rounds of dynasty startups.

Quarterback going at 510 ADP, four picks after Fernando Mendoza. Analyst notes the significant gap in quarterback ADP between Mendoza and Love.

25-year-old running back who is a sell in the fourth round because he's at peak value and the downside from missing time is glaring.

Sadiq is a sell; there is a tight end going much later than tight end 9 that is more desirable than Sadiq at his current ADP.

Murray is a sell in the seventh round; he should be traded away if someone wants to acquire him at that price.

Fifth-round value who analyst believes belongs in the third or fourth round. As of June 4th, his ADP is around 409 and climbing. Analyst fired on him in multiple startups in the fourth round and had him as a top-12 dynasty wide receiver.

Sixth-round pick (604) who is the obvious value to rise out of this tier following A.J. Brown's departure. Now likely going in the fifth round at the latest as of June 4th.

Lemon has fallen from mid-fourth round ADP (408-404) in early April to late sixth round after the NFL draft due to landing spot hate, but this is a historic overreaction; with AJ Brown now traded, his value should sharply increase and represents a major target opportunity in every startup.

Lemon earned targets at a ridiculous rate and is positioned to soak up targets in the Eagles offense; he is expected to be a third-round prospect next year, similar to Mecca Buka's trajectory.

Lemon is expected to see a sharp increase in value following the AJ Brown trade, which has not yet been priced into his ADP due to anchoring bias and timing of the trade announcement.

Willis is an asymmetrical upside bet in the ninth round with rushing floor combined with passing efficiency; if he hits, he could be a top-7 quarterback with rushing upside.

Willis faces significant uncertainty with Miami's weak offensive weapons (Dulcich, Malik Washington) and potential team tanking, plus the risk of being benched despite good performance.

Willis is valued at QB 26 prices but could produce as a QB 10 by production, making him a high-upside gamble in the ninth round.

Wilson and Watson are the same bet, and objectively they are bad bets based on what was seen last season; there is some 'tuxedo risk' with Wilson.

Analyst would take Luther Burden ahead of Nico Collins in redraft leagues, weighing Burden's potential upside against Collins' likely 1,200+ yards and 10 touchdowns.

Gadsden at tight end 10 in the eighth round is incredible value; both analysts have him comfortably in their top seven tight ends and would smash him at this ADP.

Gadsden's ADP has been dropping due to concerns about David Njoku, but this is wrong; Gadsden can put Njoku in the passenger seat just as Harold Fannin did, and he is producing 160-yard games as a rookie tight end.

Gadsden has a better play caller than Harold Fannin had last year and plays in an offense that emphasizes mismatches; with Lad McConkie adequate outside but awesome in slot, Gadsden will frequently get favorable matchups.

At 9-12 ADP, Washington offers value and is preferable to Ricky Pearsall; he has shown strong per-route production and reemerged as the focal point of Jacksonville's passing game down the stretch last season.

Washington has a Travis Fulgham-like fizzle-out outcome in his range of possibilities; his OTC score of 58.69 is not good, placing him in the 'bad bet zone' rather than the 'maybe zone.'

Washington is getting more diverse route tree opportunities and playing more outside, which are positive developments, but he faces competition from Brian Thomas Jr., Jacoby Myers, and Travis Hunter.

From week 9 onward last season, Washington was the wide receiver 17 in points per game with 14.2 PPG, demonstrating strong recent production.

Patrick Mahomes, formerly the QB1, now lives in the middle class of quarterbacks due to changes in how defenses have adjusted, making him less of a first-round priority.

Harvey is a sell at RB 25; while Jadarian Price has temporary upside similar to what Harvey had last year, Harvey himself is overpriced at his current ADP.

Rome Odunze is still on the outside looking in among the Bears' receiving options, not based on talent but on the type of routes he runs and how the team deploys him.

Fifth-round pick (507) who analyst believes is worth a bet and sometimes falls in value. Analyst would be okay drafting all the Bears at value.

Darnold is a quarterback the analyst is happy to acquire at his current price point, representing good value.

Fifth-round running back who analyst is fading entirely, along with Kyron, Bucky Irving, and Fernando Mendoza. Not interested in any of them at this ADP.

Hunter is on Jacksonville's roster and part of the crowded receiving corps, with the team drafting two tight ends signaling more 12 and 13 personnel usage.

23-year-old running back going behind Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, and Christian McCaffrey who could see one of the biggest value spikes in the fourth round. Analyst would take him over all three of those backs.

Trey McBride is described as a great pick in tight end premium leagues and will be very productive, though Colston Loveland is positioned as a superior long-term value.

Analyst traded away Troy Franklin (along with 302 and 402) to acquire Basil Tootin and the 305, indicating preference for Tootin over Franklin.

Tight end 6 at 511 ADP who analyst has as tight end 5 behind Tyler Warren. Coming off injury but analyst believes he's being slept on and is at the level of Tyler Warren and Trey McBride if he gets proper usage.

Robinson at 9-06 ADP is considered a little bit scary by the analyst.