The Undrafted - De'Zhaun Stribling Recalibration
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 4, 2026
Published
Fri, September 4, 2026
27
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
Zay FlowersCarnell TateChris RodriguezChristian WatsonCole BeasleyColston LovelandDe'Zhaun StriblingDenzel BostonElijah SarrattHunter RenfrowJ.K. DobbinsJaylen WarrenJonah ColemanKadarius Toney
Player analysis
Player insights
Carnell Tate
NegativeProjection55:08
The source is low on Carnell Tate for 2024 due to the Titans' poor offensive line and quarterback situation, though they acknowledge his talent as a receiver.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeProjection32:43
Rodriguez is viewed as an early-down grinder whose median projection is currently very close to Rashad White's.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage20:15
Watson is noted as an outlier who maintains a strong target share despite a deep-threat role, though the source notes his role is evolving this season.
Insight pageCole Beasley
NegativeRole19:25
Beasley is identified as a past example of the slot receiver archetype that teams are currently moving away from in favor of more versatile receiver usage.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper47:26
The source views Colston Loveland as having as much upside as Trey McBride but at a significantly cheaper price, making him a primary target in the first four rounds of drafts.
Insight pageDe'Zhaun Stribling
PositiveBreakout5:31
Dwayne McFarlane notes that while the rookie supermodel flagged De'Zhaun Stribling as a potential bust, his landing spot with Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers is ideal for his size and YAC ability. McFarlane suggests that if you can acquire him for seconds or thirds, it is a worthwhile investment, as he is a thick-framed player who can handle a diverse role.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
NegativeBust8:45
Dwayne McFarlane is fading Denzel Boston, noting that the rookie supermodel is down on him. He describes Boston as a possession-style receiver who works well in the red zone but lacks YAC ability and is often pigeonholed into playing the X-receiver role against tougher coverage.
Insight pageElijah Sarratt
NegativeValue20:44
The source highlights Elijah Surratt as a player the model loved, but notes that his landing spot in Baltimore is problematic due to competition with Jacoby Lane, though he remains a cheap third-round target.
Insight pageHunter Renfrow
NegativeRole19:23
Renfro is cited as an example of the traditional slot receiver archetype that has largely disappeared from modern NFL offensive schemes.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeInjury24:06
Dobbins is playing well but remains a risk due to his history of battling injuries and his advancing age.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveUsage14:59
Dwayne McFarlane maintains a positive outlook on Jalen Warren, stating that the underlying data remains strong for him despite the team's tendency to bring in larger backs like Caleb Johnson.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveValue23:43
Coleman is a well-rounded, physical back with great balance and vision who grades similarly to RJ Harvey in the rookie supermodel; he is a strong value as an 11th-round pick in redraft.
Insight pageKadarius Toney
NegativeRole19:18
The source notes that Toney represents a specific slot receiver archetype that has become increasingly rare as NFL offenses move away from relying on pure slot specialists in favor of moving their best receivers inside.
Insight pageKayshon Boutte
PositiveUsage20:00
Boutte's usage as a 'sacrificial X' receiver, characterized by high alignment on the line of scrimmage and a high frequency of go routes, limits his target potential.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeBust38:47
The source has moved Mark Andrews outside their top 12 tight ends due to consistent negative reports from camp suggesting he looks 'washed' and declining performance over the last two years.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveValue42:03
The source is buying back into Marvin Harrison Jr. because they believe he is being 'hated on' by the current ADP and is fundamentally a better player than Michael Wilson.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeUsage44:08
The source notes that while Michael Wilson is not a 'smash' play, the Cardinals are scheming him into a diverse role, which may provide him with easy looks despite his lack of elite prospect status.
Insight pageOronde Gadsden
NegativeProjection56:01
The source considers Rondé Gadsden 'dead' for the 2024 season, citing Mike McDaniel's historical usage of tight ends like Mike Gesicki, which limits their route participation.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout49:04
The source moved Parker Washington up to tier five and considers him in play in round five of redraft, citing his second-half breakout last year and his role in Liam Cohen's scheme, which previously produced high-end results for Chris Godwin.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveBreakout1:54
The source highlights Puka Nacua as a successful prospect who hit despite some underlying data concerns in the rookie supermodel, noting that his success was driven by his landing spot and team messaging; the source emphasizes that buying into players like Nacua post-draft, when camp reports are positive, is a winning strategy.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
NegativeRole35:41
Bateman is expected to start the year as a starter and will move around the formation more than in previous years, though the source remains skeptical of his consistency.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
NegativeProjection54:04
The source believes Rhamondre Stevenson will start the season as the lead back but lacks the league-winning upside compared to Trevion Henderson.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveValue22:14
Dwayne McFarlane identifies Harvey as the most valuable back in the Denver backfield due to his rare ability to function as a receiver out of the backfield, creating high-low looks for the offense.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveValue41:46
The source remains bullish on Trey McBride, noting that while he is due for negative touchdown regression, his yardage floor (71-72 yards/game) keeps him as a high-end fantasy asset. He is now considered a value in the third round of redraft.
Insight pageTroy Franklin
NegativeUsage29:54
The source notes that while the model liked Troy Franklin, he has struggled to stay on the field for run-blocking assignments due to his small frame, which is a significant concern in an NFL environment that increasingly demands balanced offenses.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveUsage35:04
Flowers is a strong pick with a high floor who is already heavily utilized in motion; the source expects him to continue working deep and potentially see increased production.
Insight pageNegativeProjection37:29
The source notes a ceiling for Zay Flowers but highlights that he is not built for high-volume red zone scoring, typically not reaching 6-7 touchdowns in a season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:36Battle through 913. All supplies last. Selection varies by location.
0:39See Lowe's.com for more details. The Undrafted, a Dynasty Game Theory podcast brought to you by OTC Fantasy.
0:44I am your host, Scott Palanger, a.k.a. Jax Falcone.
0:47You can find me on Twitter at DinoGameTheory. This is episode number 254.
0:50Let's roll. First time caller. First time caller, long time listener.
0:53Dwayne McFarlane joins us today. I am so excited.
0:56I absolutely love Dwayne McFarlane's work. If you're not familiar, man, I don't know what the hell you're doing out there because
1:02this is one of my absolute favorite follows, favorite listens.
1:05I make it a point to listen to him during the season, especially at the beginning of the season.
1:10This is when he, I think, provides the absolute most value to me and to many others in the fantasy space.
1:16And especially for Dynasty. For me, you know, you'd certainly want to be ready to be wrong.
1:21You also want to be first to be right.
1:23I think Dwayne provides a ton of insight as to how to get there first in your Dynasty League.
1:28You can find Dwayne on Twitter at Dwayne McFarlane.
1:31Obviously, he's over at Fantasy Life. We are so pleased to bring to the show Mr.
1:35Dwayne McFarlane. What's up, Dwayne? Hey, man, I appreciate you having me in.
1:39Like, I don't know if I can live up to your nice intro, but I appreciate all the kind words and totally
1:45appreciate the work that you do in this space as well.
1:48And so, yeah, just happy to get on and talk some football.
1:51We're almost there. We're almost there. I know we I'm a puka guy, right?
1:55So I've always liked puka. And of course, he's just unraveling in front of us.
1:59And I always say football can't come soon enough for guys like him.
2:03Please hurry up and get him on a football field where he can't walk through glass windows, glass doors.
2:08Excuse me. Yeah. So not so good for some of our guys who are getting in trouble.
2:13But I think we're going to be all right.
2:15Yeah. I mean, look, and with puka, that was a great call by you.
2:19I remember you and a few other people are really strong on him.
2:23Like he had some underlying data things that I like didn't like pop off huge in the rookie supermodel just because like it's it's just it's tricky.
2:30Like because there's certain players like him that really do hit and then there's others that don't.
2:35And so like trying to be balanced in the model.
2:38But I will say like you guys, it was you and I think Debro and Debro was one of his well.
2:44One other person that was really big on puka.
2:46But anyway, yeah. I mean, look, puka, we all love him.
2:49Yeah, it was interesting. I was post post draft.
2:52In other words, after the NFL draft, I just feel like, you know, I mentioned on the outset, I was first to be right or whatever.
2:59You know what I mean? Like I was ready to sort of change on puka.
3:03I saw this sort of, you see the tea leaves, you see the sort of messaging coming from the team.
3:09You sort of hear the camp reports. You're like, this might be something I, you know, and I think, you know, when
3:15you're buying in those moments, you're buying cheap anyway.
3:17You're buying for thirds and seconds and dynasty rather than, you know, force and fist where he was going, but not first
3:24and multiple firsts where he ended up. So I think those are the types of buys I'm okay making a same type
3:30of thing with probably like a player like Deshaun Stribling.
3:32I don't think we're going to see a puka like run out, but if you were able to buy a guy like
3:39Stribling because you saw this sort of camp reports for seconds or thirds or multiple seconds or thirds or whatever, I think it's well worth it.
3:46You know, what are your thoughts about Deshaun before we kind of get, get more rolling here?
3:50Yeah, look, he's a very interesting one because like the superpower of the rookie supermodel is honestly identifying bus.
3:56Yes. And so one of the things that I look for is a delta and their draft capital value, which is just
4:02basically taking the work that Chase Stewart's done and every draft pick has a value assigned to it.
4:07It's not linear, right? It's a logarithmic kind of curve.
4:10Picks are worth a whole lot and then they drop off real steeply and then they steady out right towards the end of the curve.
4:17And so whenever I was looking at Stribling, he actually had a lot of bus flags.
4:21And of the guys that were in his range, only one of the 13 have ever hit and it was Rishi Rice.
4:27But as I thought about it and I looked at it, I was like, really, there's no better place for a guy like Deshaun Stribling to land.
4:35You land with Kyle Shanahan, who's going to use your yak ability, you know, big athletic, you know, speedy guy, sturdy.
4:40This is a thick frame player. This is not a small move gadget kind of guy.
4:45You can do all those things with him, but like he's got the size to do it.
4:50And if you look at his yards after the catch over expected, which I use, I adjust based on their average depth
4:56of target is where it was as well as where they get the target on the field.
5:00And then their quarterback play is also a small component of that because, you know, accuracy is a big part of yak.
5:07But ultimately, like he graded out really well above like where his expectations should have been for who he was.
5:12And so I when I saw that and then I saw you're playing with Kyle Shanahan, they invested a high pick in you.
5:18I was like, if there's a chance for the rookie supermodel to really be wrong on a prospect this year, it's him.
5:25Like it's also very down on Denzel Boston and I'm fading Boston.
5:28But to your point, landing in that scheme and then the constant beat reports from camp and then putting it on the preseason tape as well.
5:35I mean, against ones in some of those games and I was like, all right, like, hey, rookie supermodel.
5:40Like I trust you. You do a lot of things really well, but I also have my own brain and I want to buy Dazon Struggling.
5:48Speaking of that, you had sent out a tweet, which I loved.
5:51It was the Caleb Johnson tweet where you were like, the one time I go against the model and here's what happens.
5:57You know, sort of I think you were kind of illustrating that, you know, you feel a pressure to sort of listen
6:03to what the model says, even though the model is.
6:06I think it's mostly because it's it has no emotion.
6:09Right. There's nothing to the model that cares about, you know, anything but the data.
6:13And so we tend to want to listen to it because we have so much bias.
6:17Yes. But the models don't. And but yet we're like, well, he landed in Pittsburgh.
6:21He's going to look really good in that uniform and they're going to run the ball and all these things.
6:27And all of a sudden you're like, I should have listened to the model.
6:31You know, even Struggling to some degree is a little bit in the opposite for me because our model kind of liked them.
6:37But I thought there were some red flags. But, you know, once again, we always say in the model we should trust
6:43because our our wide receiver model admittedly is very different from many of the other models.
6:48Like one of the things you mentioned, the draft capital thing, I think a lot of the times what people will do
6:54is they'll take their model and they'll add points to a score because of where they were drafted.
6:59Our model is kind of the it was literally the opposite.
7:02It's a regressive stat, meaning nobody can gain anything from being drafted highly.
7:06They can only lose something from being drafted lower.
7:08So Struggling kind of fell in a range that was like, this is pretty interesting.
7:12Struggling, he wasn't like way off the charts, but he was in a range that we tend to see some hits.
7:18And so we were paying a little bit of attention to Struggling, although I personally faded him.
7:23So it's one of those things where I was like, I should have listened.
7:27What are your thoughts about that in terms of just on the on the surface level?
7:31I think because both you and I both, you know, what you do and what we do at OTC, we do provide model.
7:38A lot of times people will ask. I'm sure they ask you all the time.
7:42You know, your model said this. Shouldn't I just you know, I think they want to listen to it almost like, you know, it's rankings.
7:49It's not rankings. It's another tool. Right. Right. Yeah.
7:51It's not it's not like the the silver bullet or anything.
7:54It's not like the one. It's it. It's like you said, it's a tool.
7:58There's a lot of tools in our toolbox. Yes.
8:01And ultimately, like I like it because it's my starting point.
8:04Because what you said, like, you know, the model is essentially just built.
8:07We've just looked for which data points provide the most signal to future fantasy success in the NFL.
8:12And draft capital is one of those. However you want to use it, whether you're taking away or adding to me, like an NFL team there.
8:19This is a multibillion dollar industry, the NFL. And like they're investing all of this, all of these resources into figuring out who the best players are.
8:27And it doesn't mean they're always right. But like we need to take that into account, you know?
8:32So essentially, I use the two things together. I really the the model, right, is more weighted on the things that they did in college.
8:39But the draft capital certainly counts. And then I'm looking for that delta between, you know, those two things to see which
8:45players were probably reaches, which ones weren't. But yeah, I mean, getting into situation really can be tricky and it can lead to landmines.
8:52And Caleb Johnson, you brought him up, that was a really good example.
8:55Najee Harris had left that year and I looked at the backfield.
8:59I really do like Jalen Warren. I still like Jalen Warren.
9:02Like the underlying data, I still like for Jalen Warren.
9:04But whenever I looked at that and I was like, all right, with Tomlin, they bring in a bigger guy.
9:10Although like I don't think Caleb Johnson's necessarily like a bruiser.
9:13A bruiser. He has the size. That's not his style.
9:16It's not the way he plays. But the model, you know, doesn't really care about that.
9:20But the big knock on him is just didn't do a lot in the passing game, you know, in college.
9:26And I thought his explosive stuff just was like subpar.
9:29Like he did some nice, he definitely had some huge games in college.
9:32Yes. So like over his full body of work, it wasn't necessarily spectacular.
9:36And that's why the model was, you know, downgrading him.
9:39And the model had him as running back eight or nine.
9:42And I ended up putting him like running back six that year in my rookie ranks.
9:46And yeah, so it's one of those that you look back at.
9:49And I may be doing it again with dribbling, but, you know, I just, I honestly, I just look at the scheme and I just trust so much.
9:57And it kind of goes back to the Puka thing.
10:00Like when you look at the, you look at Shanahan, you look at McVay, I mean, with Cooper Cup, you know, as a round three pick.
10:07Even before we had Puka Nakua going off as a round five pick.
10:11And the 49ers, it's not like their track record's been perfect.
10:14They've definitely busted, you know, on some wide receiver profiles.
10:17But I just look at the strengths of dribbling and then I look at the strengths of the 49ers offense and just
10:23the age of everyone else around him. And I'm like, you know, if there is a scheme that can really make this guy work, I'm in.
10:30And like, I don't think people, like if you were doing your redraft today, like I wouldn't be drafting Dazon Stribbling like in the middle of round one.
10:38But somewhere right around there, you know, it gets, once you get to six or seven, depending on if you're in tight
10:44end premium or a super flex, you know, I mean, I think he's in the back half of round five.
10:49And I think that's a round one conversation. I did my rookie draft just three weeks ago.
10:54We wait later. A lot of the guys in our league like to wait.
10:58And Stribbling went with the first pick in the second round of that draft to one of my really good buddies and his son who reads my stuff.
11:06And like I saw him over there whispering, I was like, here goes Stribbling.
11:10But I, yeah. And the other thing is, I just don't think this is a, like, I think this is a pretty
11:16deep wide receiver class as far as like there's a lot of guys that could hit.
11:20But there's a bunch of them jumbled together. And so that's whenever I think like some of the tiebreakers, like if you
11:26look at them in the rookie supermodel, like you have four or five receivers all like within like one point of each other in the model.
11:34And for me, that's where I just put on the thinking hat of, okay, let me think through this.
11:39I'm going to take the situation. These guys are not that far apart.
11:42Stribbling's technically four below these other guys, but it's by one point.
11:46Right. It's not like this massive thing in the model.
11:49So where I typically try not to go against the model though, is if it's something where, you know, it's a clear tear break.
11:55Right. And the model says they're way down here and now they're getting pumped up, you know, to being, you know, like
12:01a round above where I think they should be going or maybe two rounds sometimes.
12:05Which can happen the later your draft happens because then you get more of this other information that can really influence people.
12:12The closer you draft, the closer you draft your dynasty, dynasty league, or you do your rookie drafts, you know, to the
12:18NFL draft when people have less information, the more I, even then, the more I stick to the model.
12:23Right. But I, I do the same thing as I get more information, I do change things a little bit, but I,
12:29again, I will, I stick to the tears, but if it's just like a point or two difference and I really like
12:35the situation better, I, I will lean into that at times.
12:38Same. Yeah. I, we had an interesting situation this year where, you know, um, when you look at players that the model
12:44liked, we are, our model really liked Jacoby lane and Elijah Surratt.
12:48And we're like, Oh, I can't wait to draft these guys.
12:51It's going to be great. And then they both go to Baltimore and we're like, Hmm.
12:55This is not good. I love, love Surratt too.
12:58It was okay on a Jacoby lane, but it loved Elijah Surratt.
13:01You know, and they end up in the same spot, which wasn't exactly a great landing spot, but also competing with each other.
13:07And so, you know, our advice to our, you know, our listeners was definitely try and try and draft them both, you
13:14know, because their cost wasn't very expensive. You know, you were, we were consistently getting those players in the third round.
13:19So it wasn't expensive, but on the flip side, there was another spot where I'm sure you had two players.
13:25One that sounds like you didn't like as much.
13:27Actually our model had Boston ahead of Concepcion, but Concepcion and Boston both go to Cleveland again, not a great situation.
13:33And they also cannibalize each other with the opportunity there.
13:36What were your thoughts on those two? Yeah. The model did not like Denzel Boston.
13:40The rookie supermodel didn't does. It doesn't mean that it's necessarily right, but just, you know, more of a possession style receiver does work down the field.
13:48Really good in the red zone, but doesn't add a ton afterwards.
13:51And my other, you know, concern with players like that is they often get stuck on the outside, right?
13:56So they're having to play the X, got to play against, you know, more coverage versus Concepcion.
14:01Really the whole idea being that he's a move player.
14:04He had as much, he was much better early in his college career, kind of had a rough sophomore year, which he
14:10basically decided he wanted to leave that offense because it was all like bubble screens and stuff.
14:15And he wanted to show that he could do more than that and good on him because he goes to Texas A&M
14:21and they put him outside and let him work vertical.
14:23So now I've got this profile to show me they can do both things.
14:27You can, you can let them be the guy you, you design stuff around the line of scrimmage, which you don't want a player that's just that.
14:35That's bad. Actually, that's a big time red flag.
14:37And we've seen that play out with so many of these, you know, smaller wide receivers, especially to where they just, they
14:43can't make it at the next level because now you got to have a full or at least you need a more diverse route tree.
14:50You can't just have it all designed. But if you can work multiple levels of the field and you can be someone
14:57that your team can feed you, say, 3% of your target share around the line of scrimmage.
15:01Now you're talking about something that we can really work with.
15:04And the other thing that I really like, you know, outside of the model with Concepcion is just the way the NFL
15:10is moving and what defenses are doing to take away the pass game.
15:14You know, we had the lowest gross passing yards per game since 2008 last year at 225 in the league.
15:20And the league's just saying, we're not letting you go deep.
15:23So we really need these players that can move around the formation, get in motion, you know, hit the in-breaking routes off of play action, all those things.
15:30And short term, it's positive because it's Todd Monken.
15:33They don't have a quarterback though. That's what makes it tricky.
15:36They actually have four of them. I checked the roster.
15:39Yeah, they do have four. And as in none.
15:41Yeah. We'll see. Maybe Taylor Green can like do something for us.
15:45Oh yeah, I'm sure he's going to unlock the deep passing game as he's rushing for a thousand yards a season.
15:50So one of the things I've said so many times is, you know, I bet the supermodel really liked Marvin Harrison Jr.
15:57And Roma Dunze, because I know our model did as well.
16:00And what I've been hesitant is anytime a guy prospects as being an outside X, I'm scared just because of the way the NFL is playing.
16:07And you look at all the successful wide receivers, whether it's Amon Ra, Cooper Cups, triple crown season, Lamb, Puka, Jamar Chase,
16:13even in his best season, played more in the slot and took advantage of those of those matchups.
16:18They moved them around a lot more. We're seeing that the players that JSN, obviously, the players that score the most fantasy points are in the slot.
16:25That doesn't mean they're slot only. And I think that's a distinction that we've been making and just slamming home on this
16:31program is that you'll hear a lot of people say, yeah, he's a slot.
16:35I don't really like him. It's like, no, hold on.
16:38What kind of slot? A Makai Lemon JSN first round slot or a Wandel Robinson who actually is kind of getting there.
16:44But, you know, that prototype generally doesn't. The Xavier Restrepo's and things of that nature, which, yeah, maybe they'll get pigeonholed into
16:50slot only, which means they're only going to play a little.
16:53Even the sort of alpha slot only is like Jaden Reed still don't quite get there.
16:58Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, a lot of it does come down to being able to stay on the field.
17:03Like you need, you need, you know, a 90% route participation rate to be in the leak conversation, you know, for wide receivers.
17:10Right. If you can get to 85, like that's still really good.
17:13But like if you get stuck in a role where like Josh Downs and Jaden Reed and Josh Downs sounds like he
17:19will get to play outside this year. We'll see.
17:22And I really like him. But at the same time, like some of it does come back to size.
17:27I know we try to be more advanced and not be like sizes, you know, nobody wants to be an ageist or a sizist.
17:34But you got to be able to work those areas.
17:36And you're going to take big hits, man, from super athletic linebackers that like if you or I took a hit, like
17:43I wouldn't get up for three days. And these guys are taking multiple hits like that.
17:47You got safeties rotating down on you. It's just, you know, it's, it's physics, man.
17:51It's, it's, it's, it's a lot to take on.
17:54And on top of that, we see a guy like Troy Franklin, who our model really liked, but yet he has been
18:00coming out on run blocking, you know, plays because he can't do it.
18:03That's right. He's so small. There's even that. And teams want to be balanced and they want to run the ball because
18:09that's what defenses are inviting them to do because they're saying, we're going to play deep.
18:14We're going to start off in a too high look.
18:17We're going to rotate one safety way deep right off the snap.
18:20And this has been coming, you know, for multiple years, you know, average depth of target is down.
18:25The passing yards are down. And basically like the league was just like, we're not letting Patrick Mahomes do Patrick Mahomes.
18:31Like when they saw that they were like, okay, we can't, we can't allow this anymore.
18:35We can't play the same kind of defenses that let someone we we've got them down.
18:40And in three drives, they can score 21 points at the drop of a hat and beat us.
18:45And so defenses have decided, you know, we're just going to invite offenses to run the ball.
18:49And so it does matter because offenses will run the ball more now.
18:53And you, you need to be able to block.
18:56And to your point, the other thing on the big thing on the slot stuff is, you know, and you kind of,
19:02you kind of hinted at it too. It's can they play outside, but also like what's their average depth of target, right?
19:08If they're just like a five or a six and they're all underneath and that's all they ever did in college, that's
19:14the kind of archetype that's really tough. But if it's someone that's shown you.
19:18Yes, Kadarius, Tony. You used to see a lot of them like Hunter Renfro had a good year.
19:23Cole Beasley had a good year. And you would see these guys from the slot every year, a new one, kind of
19:29like tight ends today where we're like, oh, there's going to be some tight end 19 or 20.
19:34That's going to get more playing time than we think.
19:37And they're going to be a top 10 tight end.
19:39It was the same way with slot receivers. Like every year we would get a new one, but then they would disappear.
19:46Right. So now those guys are pretty much gone.
19:48Offenses are not wanting to put that archetype on the field.
19:51And that's not what Concepcion is. Right. What they seem to be doing is taking their best receiver, moving them inside and
19:57taking a sacrificial X, you know, someone that can just run.
20:00I think, I don't know if it was you or I read somewhere the Boutte numbers where he was running.
20:06He was like 90% on the line and at X and ran like 35% go routes last year or something like that.
20:12You're not going to get a lot of targets like that.
20:15Like unless you're Christian Watson, like he, he gets a strong amount of targets for a guy that works as deep as
20:21he does, which that's changing for him this year.
20:24He's in a totally new role, but yeah, it's, you don't want to be stuck out there on the perimeter again, because
20:30the defense, they're not giving that up now. Used to, you could be like, well, you get stuck out there.
20:35Maybe you don't get a 25% target share, but you get 22, 23 and you score 10 touchdowns and you get 1200 yards.
20:42We're all good. Like it evens out. It's tougher now.
20:44We're going to ask Mr. Dwayne McFarlane some more questions.
20:47My time is limited with him. I am so grateful for it, but I've got some big questions right after this.
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21:32See Lowe's.com for more details. Welcome back to the program.
21:35Dwayne, thank you so much for being here. You're the absolute man.
21:38I absolutely love it. I want to ask you some questions and I want to try and get some answers.
21:44You don't. You want answers? You can't handle the truth.
21:47Let's do this. So, I think the Denver backfield is one where now I start to hear what you have to say
21:53about usage and what you think, what you've seen in the preseason.
21:56Maybe last year. I don't really care, but what are your thoughts about this Denver backfield and how you're handicapping it going forward?
22:02Well, you set it up perfect because we have a few good men here.
22:06You know, your quote there from a few good men.
22:09So, it's pretty tricky. And, you know, you talked about the ADPs on all these guys.
22:14And Harvey is the archetype that, like, we still like the most because it can break fantasy because he really is the
22:20guy that's a good receiver out of the backfield.
22:22And that's the hardest trait to find is someone that's not just a check down artist but can actually work.
22:28Like, you know, when I say downfield, it doesn't mean deep shots.
22:31It just means that they can run a Texas route.
22:34They can do these different things that create high-low looks for their offense.
22:37You know, against the linebacker, the quarterback drops back.
22:40They read the safety and they see what the linebacker is doing and they're either hitting a seam or they're hitting underneath
22:46that, you know, with this angle route. And that's like CMC, Kamara, Eckler, those guys.
22:50And they will occasionally work deep down the field like we saw just the other day with RJ Harvey in the preseason
22:56game, that touchdown pass down the sideline from Bo Nix.
22:59But it's like that's the hardest thing to find.
23:02Most running backs can't do that. So, and if you look at the rushing aspect of things, if you have a good
23:08offensive line, like, you can probably be decent. I'm not saying that vision and all those things don't matter.
23:13They certainly do. And there's certain running backs that are definitely better at running the ball than others.
23:18But it's easier to figure that part out, right?
23:20If you're not a good receiver out of the backfield, you're just not.
23:24And we play a game where you get a point, you know, for a catch or a half a point for a catch.
23:30And so it matters more for our game than it necessarily does for NFL teams.
23:35And so I do think that Harvey is still the one that has the best bet there.
23:39But when you add Coleman and this year, and he's like a really well-rounded back, right?
23:44He's not going to do the kind of things Harvey does in the past game.
23:48But this is a fire hydrant, man. Like, this guy's got great balance, vision, can run between the tackles, can handle the carries inside the five.
23:55Kind of got an MJD kind of build to him.
23:58And he graded very similarly in the rookie supermodel to RJ Harvey as far as their overall score.
24:03Harvey was slightly ahead. And so I think it's a tricky situation.
24:06Dobbins, you know, is still playing really well right now, but battles the injuries getting older.
24:11So the two I prefer, obviously Harvey and Coleman.
24:13But in a vacuum, I do kind of just lean to Coleman like as being the one, you know, that costs, you
24:19know, he's an 11th round pick instead of being an 8th round pick.
24:23Yeah, and I was referencing Dynasty ADP there. I'm not sure about.
24:26It's about that in redraft too. Yeah, it's pretty close.
24:29You know, a lot of times we have discrepancies, but right now Harvey's an 8 to 9 in redraft.
24:34And then Dobbins is a 9 to 10. And then Coleman is somewhere between 11 and 14, depending on what site you're playing on.
24:41So it's kind of the same bet right now in redraft.
24:44For redraft, like it's a little trickier. I think Coleman in year one, I need some things.
24:49I think he's going to be part of the rotation, but a Dobbins injury is kind of what you're waiting on.
24:55Here's what I'll say. I think if Dobbins went down, I don't think Harvey steps into a huge role.
25:00I think his role increases, but I think Coleman's good enough that that's what makes it so tricky now.
25:05You have two guys and Sean Payton loves to run these committees.
25:08I've heard you mention this. I mean, and I tend to agree.
25:12Maybe that's why I asked the question. I just wanted to have the start off with an agree, you know, agreeing with Dwayne.
25:18But I think that, you know, RJ Harvey's role is more static and that the Dobbins, Jonah Coleman role changes dramatically.
25:24Obviously, if Dobbins gets hurt, I think Jonah's the one that, you know, steps forward and has a lot more.
25:30Like, I think he will be sort of not that involved if Dobbins and RJ Harvey are both healthy.
25:35But I do think that they see him as a player who could step into either role because he's so well-rounded.
25:41That could be wrong, obviously, but it makes a lot of sense from a usage standpoint from both their college and their NFL so far careers.
25:48Right. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think Coleman's got a lot of pliability, like in the way you can apply.
25:53I mean, he just does a lot of things that coaches like as well.
25:57Like, I mean, he doesn't, he doesn't drop the ball.
26:00He doesn't fumble the ball. He can block on pass downs, like all these things that don't, don't have like a huge
26:06weight or they have no weight or all at all, honestly, in the rookie supermodel.
26:10But they're things that I write and talk about in context because we know that like there's more to the game than
26:16just the things we can capture, you know, in a, in a spreadsheet.
26:20And so when I look at, you know, Coleman, I think, you know, the challenge is like there's, if there's two guys healthy, it just makes it tough.
26:28But I do agree with you. I think, I think Harvey's role would also increase.
26:32And to your point, like we could be wrong.
26:35Like, like if Dobbins went down and Harvey took on most of that work, he, and we saw that last year.
26:40I mean, he was a low end running back one.
26:43And he wasn't great as, as a runner. He was pretty good as a receiver though.
26:48And people forget that people can improve. People can get better.
26:51And we get so hung up on, well, he didn't score 18 fantasy points per game last year when he got his opportunity.
26:57But Coleman's definitely a thorn in his side, man.
27:00My only issue with him with the improvement, not that he can't improve, but he's also like, I think he's older than like Javante Williams or something.
27:07He's older. Yeah. He's like 25, you know, and maybe close to 26.
27:11I mean, that's just, it's just. We don't know the kind of coaching they get.
27:15Like age is one thing, but your experience, the program you played at, you know, maybe, you know, there are different things.
27:21And who knows, sometimes you may have had a better coach in college than what you get in the NFL.
27:26So it's not like it's just a guarantee that like some position coach is going to fix your woes.
27:32Right. I guess what I'm getting at is not necessarily that he can't improve, but that even if he does, we're talking
27:38about a prospect that you may not get that much run out of in Dynasty.
27:42You know, sort of, you know, saying he's a young player is kind of not true.
27:46It's kind of, you know. So let's move to Washington.
27:49The commanders, as they're called these days. I don't particularly like calling the commanders, but that's OK.
27:54I'm an old I'm an old fashioned guy. I like the old name, but look, here's the question I have for the
28:00Washington backfield, because I think, you know, I'll ask it this way, because if there's a player running back on this team
28:06that that would crack the top 24 in 2026.
28:09Who do you think that would be? I think it's wide open, man.
28:12Like, I mean, we know that like playing with Jaden Daniels next to you is a gravitational pull, right?
28:18We've seen this. How many years for guys that got the lineup against Lamar?
28:21Obviously, Derek Henry is elite in his own right.
28:24So he's been great. But like Gus Edwards, I mean, we can go to Mark Ingram having a pretty decent year there when he first got there.
28:31Dobbins, who obviously, you know, I really liked as a prospect, but yeah, was smashing.
28:36So when I look at this, it's like it just comes down to like which one ends up playing the most.
28:41And if you look at all the camp reports and look at everything that we've gotten, it's Ja'Cory, Krosky, and Merritt to start the year.
28:48Like, can he keep that? I don't know. I think there are positives with Bill, as they like to call him.
28:54And he's an explosive player. He likes to get downhill.
28:57And that kind of fits what they want to do.
29:00Like you get that glimmer of daylight and you go.
29:03I will say, though, I don't know how much I like drafting him right now and redraft.
29:07You can get him in around nine or ten.
29:10And running back is really tricky this year in redraft.
29:13I try to encourage people, honestly, to kind of go old school and try to have two running backs after the first two rounds.
29:19It's not a blind statement, guys. If you look at my tiers over on the side, I'll tell you where you stop
29:25and you just take the receivers instead. But having someone like that, I do think that.
29:30So he's the one I target the most. But to your point, it's kind of like I can't say for sure.
29:36So if I don't get him, I don't mind tacking on a Rashad White later or even coming back to a Catron
29:42Allen who I was worried about at first because I was like, man, this guy's getting like 35 carries into the fourth quarter of that first preseason game.
29:49I was like, I don't know if he's going to make the roster, but he did.
29:54And I mean, he is the kind of style back that could also work with Jaden Daniels.
29:59Not quite as explosive as Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt, but like he's reliable.
30:02He's reliable. So I think he's more of a waiver wire guy for this year.
30:06So I'm betting on Bill to start the year.
30:09But if he falters, he's not going to have a strong grip.
30:12I just wonder how they're going to have to play.
30:15I don't know how good their defense is going to be.
30:18You know, they may want to have this running attack, rushing attack.
30:21But if they just get sort of thrust into, you know, playing in shotgun, playing, you know, known passing down, just, you
30:27know, where that's the way they they're going to have to play because they're behind.
30:31Right. If they're playing from behind, they're going to be throwing more.
30:35I would imagine that's the Rashad White recipe. I agree that if there's a top 24 back here, it's it's Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt.
30:41So I actually agree with that. But I wonder if it's just on a game to game basis, they're just sort of forced to play Rashad White.
30:49We could not want to. There's a there's a real chance that we're looking at it.
30:53And every week we don't know which one to pick.
30:56And we're like, it is a realistic concern. I will say the one really good thing is whenever you typically have a
31:02dual threat like Jaden Daniels, those teams, even when they're trailing, they really do kind of stick to it.
31:07Now, they're not going to stick to it as much as if they were winning like a team like that.
31:13If they're winning, might actually drop back to pass 50% of the time.
31:16Yeah. If you're trailing, though, it might only be 55%, right?
31:19Because they know that really the best thing they have going for them is to make the defense respect Jaden Daniels in the run game at all times.
31:27And they just really need to win through efficiency versus your true like Joe Burrow, for example.
31:32It's like if they're down, you know, like they're just going to drop back to throw the ball every time.
31:37But Burrow can do that, you know? So you get a little bit of insulation, in my opinion, having Jaden Daniels there.
31:44Kind of the same thing, you know, with the Dolphins this year.
31:47I expect them that even if they're trailing to honestly not change their offense much.
31:51And again, coming back to the defensive stuff we talked about earlier, defenses are dictating that, you know?
31:56And so they're still just tempting the offense to run in the best way.
32:00You know, you guys, everybody listening sees this. Like you've watched your favorite team.
32:04And I'm a Cowboys fan. And I live here in Dallas.
32:07And so I've grown up a Cowboys fan. But like the last several years, even though the Cowboys had a good pass
32:13rush when Micah Parsons was there, like when another team would just be running it on them.
32:18Like it just and I think this happens like to the coordinators too.
32:21You're just like, all right, so we got to stop this.
32:24Like this is so annoying. Like just these five and six yard gashes at a time.
32:29And so doing that with the commanders, making the other team respect that, I think some teams will be more disciplined than others.
32:35That keeps, you know, that keeps game scripts slightly more intact for a guy like Bill.
32:40Let me see where you're at. I made a trade basically almost straight across for these two players in Dynasty recently.
32:45So I'll see where you think. Just for 2026, you don't have to make a big Dynasty statement, but just for 2026, who outscores who?
32:52Who? Rashad White or Chris Rodriguez? Man. Isn't that good?
32:55That's really close. It's super close, dude. Yeah, I mean, two different things, right?
32:59One is the early down grinder. One is more the passing down guy.
33:03Here's what I would say. I do think the higher ceiling belongs to Rashad White because theoretically, right, he's got the every down skill set.
33:10It's not like he's been great with it. No.
33:12He has shown that he can do everything. He can play your pass down.
33:16Yeah, he can play inside the five. He's got the size to do that.
33:20So I think the ceiling is higher for Rashad White.
33:23If I had to pick like the baseline, like just the median projection, I have them right next to each other.
33:29There you go. My projections right now. That's why I was like in the tank.
33:33There was a little bit of a juice on the side and I got Rashad White.
33:37I think I got Joe Flacco and I have Burrow.
33:40So it made sense, you know, in Dynasty. So yeah, it was okay, fine.
33:44I'll do it. So there you go. So yeah, I was super close.
33:47And it's like, I think that's your answer to that tells me that we're on the same page.
33:52Cause I was like, I rather the, almost the, the ceiling or the, what am I looking for?
33:57Ceiling or floor out of this particular running back on this particular build.
34:01Right. And that was where I was like, I guess I'd rather have the upside.
34:05So I went, I went with the deal, but anyway, that's, that's where that is.
34:09So let's circle back to this Baltimore passing game.
34:12And, um, you know, I know you do projections.
34:14I would ask kind of in general what your projections are here, but also just factoring in range of outcomes, right?
34:20Um, do you think there's any upside possibilities outside of, uh, of Zay Flowers?
34:24Cause I think we look at this, we say, okay, Zay Flowers, we know what he is.
34:29He actually has a very good floor heading into this year.
34:32Uh, but I have so many questions, obviously with Declan Doyle, uh, being there, you know, his, you know, no longer having,
34:38um, you know, Isaiah likely will they play more, uh, you know, 11 there's so many things go through my mind.
34:44What are you, what are your thoughts here? No, I'm with you.
34:47A lot of questions around the Ravens, a team I'm very excited to see how they look early in the year to
34:53see, you know, how I project them going forward right now.
34:56I am anticipating they use less of the heavy tight end stuff than what we saw before, which Munkin absolutely loves it,
35:02you know, Declan Doyle does come from Ben Johnson who used the 12 stuff quite a bit last year with Colson Loveland and Cole Komet.
35:09So I think they'll still do it, but I think they also signaled to us, you know, even though they weren't super
35:15high picks, but going out and getting lame, getting Surratt, making that double dip, they did add two tight ends, but they
35:22were in the later rounds with Hibner and Josh Cuevas.
35:24So it's, um, I think it's going to be a multiple offense, but I think the secret honestly is like, can Jacoby
35:30Lane, like keep what he's had going from training camp going?
35:33And if so, that gives them another really strong red zone weapon.
35:37And Rashad Bateman, you know, we'll probably, he's going to start the year as a starter.
35:41I think Lane eventually takes him over at some point this year, but there's, there's, there's been a lot of buzz about
35:47Rashad Bateman at camp this year, but there's a lot of buzz about Rashad Bateman every year.
35:52And I'm just, you know, I've been hurt so many times.
35:55I will take him in the last round of a best ball draft.
35:59I will say he's going to get to move around way more than he ever has.
36:03Bateman will. So maybe that helps him this year.
36:06But I think, you know, Jacoby Lane, if he, if he can be a really good red zone weapon, because that's the thing with Zay Flowers.
36:13Zay Flowers, he can get you down the field and move you in.
36:16Zay Flowers can do everything. He can beat you deep.
36:19He's honestly been, he was a little bit limited, honestly, in Munkin's offense.
36:23Right. But I think when you look at Lamar, like we know the ceiling is there.
36:27We've seen it twice where he's had these huge spike seasons in the passing game.
36:31And it comes back to like having this balanced offense where, you know, teams have to, Derek Henry is not a guy
36:38that you want to give a runway. If you give Derek Henry five yards, he's going to take 15.
36:43Yeah. Or 50, right? I mean, it's. Yeah. Or 50.
36:46Yeah. So I just, you know, good God. Could you imagine being a safety that's 15 yards downfield and he's got a full head of steam?
36:53You're like, oh man, like, am I making a business decision or, you know, am I getting yelled at?
36:58Go for the angels. And so, yeah, I think there's a lot of upside.
37:02I think it's tricky because like Declan Doyle's never called plays before.
37:05Right. And people are, oh man, Zay Flowers is going to be, well, Zay Flowers has already like been used more in
37:11motion than like almost any other receiver over the last three years because Todd Munkin was already doing that.
37:17So I think Flowers is a good pick this year.
37:20I just think the narrative behind it's kind of wrong, which is, oh man, Declan Doyle's.
37:24And I'm like, guys, have you looked at what Todd Munkin was already doing with Zay Flowers?
37:29All that stuff. I think the secret to Zay Flowers is actually letting him do those things, but also let him work
37:35the deep area of the field because we've actually seen him be very successful at that.
37:39And Lamar is a good deep ball thrower and they've just barely missed on several big plays over the last two years.
37:45And so I think there's a ceiling there with Zay Flowers, but Jacoby Lane in the red zone because that's not, Zay
37:51Flowers is not going to score like six or seven touchdowns in the red zone on most years.
37:56He's just not built for that. But if Lane can bring that aspect and then you've got that run game to go
38:03along with Lamar's dual threat ability, I haven't projected right around the middle of the league and passing yards per game.
38:08I haven't projected as one of the better overall offenses.
38:11I have them as a top eight scoring offense.
38:14So I think there's a lot to like with the Ravens.
38:17But the question is like, how good can they be on the passing aspect?
38:21But again, the way defenses are making teams play, they have the, they have the approach that can spike for a massive seat for a massive passing season.
38:28And we have seen it from Lamar before. We have.
38:31And that's kind of my question is, and you did a great job, Senator Dwayne, you dodged the question.
38:36But the question that I'm asking, I guess, is outside of Henry, Lamar and Zay, who's the guy, right?
38:42Because there's got to be somebody or. No, it's Lane.
38:44Is it Lane or is it Andrews? It's Lane.
38:47It's Lane. Well, I like Andrews too. And so the only issue with Andrews is he hasn't looked as good the last two years.
38:54I started off with him as my tight end eight and redraft this year.
38:58I was super excited about likely being gone. I'm giving him more routes.
39:01The data was saying he's fallen off some though.
39:04And so, but I was giving him the benefit of the doubt was coming off the tight rope, you know, a couple of years ago.
39:11And so, you know, it takes some time to come back from that.
39:14But then all the reports from camp have been that he looks washed and you know how hard it is to get
39:20reports from camp that someone looks washed. I mean, reporters really want to be, they're trying to blow everybody up.
39:26And so to be hearing these consistent negative things, I did have to move Andrews down.
39:30I've got him outside my top 12 now. So that's what makes me kind of lean to Lane.
39:35It could certainly be Andrews though. Sure. If the reports around Andrews at camp are bad and I'm not there to personally
39:41see this stuff, so they could be wrong. Either one of those guys could do it, but my gut is just Lane's
39:48the guy that's been really good in camp. And so I think he's the one.
39:52Yeah. I sort of envision Lane doing the things that they were doing with Isaiah Likely because oftentimes Likely was not lined up in line.
39:59You probably have to have it closer at the tip of your fingers than I do.
40:03But so many of his routes were out wide or in the slot or at least even sort of standing up close
40:09to the line, like he was never, you know, hand in the dirt, tight end guy anyway.
40:14And they would bring him in, you know, when known passing situations or goal line situations, you know, he had the very
40:20vivid memory of the one he just barely missed.
40:22I think it was week one last year. So, I mean, but throwing those sort of jump balls in the back of
40:29the end zone, I think that becomes Lane. You know, and I think, you know, Lane and Surratt, you know, if you
40:35remember last year, they sort of reached into the fountain of youth to try and, you know, bring back DeAndre Hopkins as a sort of security blank.
40:42And I think both Lane and Surratt are sort of providing some of that sort of, you know, run 10 yards and
40:48stop and I'll throw it towards you when we absolutely need something, you know, and both good contested catch players, not that
40:54you want everything to be a contested catch, but like they can play to the middle of the defense.
41:00They can play on the boundary. They can. And again, like once you get inside the 10, these are guys.
41:05They have enough size to still body up. Like when you get the right read, you know, the quarterback can put it over there and see what happens.
41:13Yeah. It's funny because I sometimes think like, you know, if you told me Lane and Surratt ended with like, you know,
41:19under 50 targets each, I'd be like, yeah, of course, that's what we should have seen that coming.
41:24Of course there were going to be nobody's totally happen.
41:27Right. But you could also be like, you know, one of them, you know, had 10 touchdowns and 900 yards.
41:32I'd be like, we could have seen that coming, you know?
41:36So it's, it's, there's, I think there's just so much variance to that Baltimore situation.
41:40Let's hit this Arizona situation. I went back and forth, you know, with someone on Twitter today about the Trey McBride situation.
41:46And I just don't think people are quite digesting how many routes Michael Wilson and Trey McBride ran last year compared to what normal is in the NFL.
41:54They ran almost 700 routes and that is not normal.
41:56And so of course they got there on volume.
41:59And I just, I have a, you know, a pretty big bet on Marvin Harrison Jr.
42:03Just because of his, you know, to hail to the King.
42:06I don't hate players. I hate ADPs, you know, and I think Marvin Harrison Jr.
42:11In all formats is being hated on to the point where I'm ready to buy back in.
42:15And I also think that just on par, he's going to be a better player than Michael Wilson.
42:20I don't hate Michael Wilson either. I just think that Marvin Harrison better.
42:24All that saying, what do you, what do you think about the situation in Arizona?
42:28Yeah. So I'm not too worried about McBride. And the reason why is like, I do the projections and I obviously am
42:34not giving him all those routes he had from last year.
42:37Like I still have him with a really good route participation, but I do think under LaFleur, it's going to be a more balanced offense.
42:44We're going to see more running. They're going to be more willing to stick with that.
42:49Even if they are trailing, I still have them though, as one of the top passing teams in the league.
42:54Now they're not, they're not going to be where they were last year.
42:58I think I've got them 6% down in their dropbacks per game.
43:01So it's, it's a situation where I still feel really good about McBride.
43:05And with him, it's like, okay, the touchdowns last year, people point to, and they're like, okay, he scored 0.13, 0.18 per game.
43:11And then last year was at 0.65 touchdowns per game.
43:14But I could also make the argument that look, he averaged 71.6 and 72.9 yards per game.
43:19And historically tight ends that have done that, they score closer to 0.4 to 0.5 touchdowns per game.
43:24So the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
43:26He was due for positive regression last year. Now he's going to be due for a little bit of negative regression, but
43:32I think still he lands in the middle. And the other thing I look at is that the year before when he
43:38didn't score the touchdowns and a PPR anyway, 15.6 fantasy points per game.
43:42Last year was 18.6. 15.6, man, from your tight end is still really good.
43:46So I like McBride in round three. I think people are a little woke on it.
43:50Like, and don't get me wrong. I have Bowers as my tight end one.
43:54I take Bowers at the end of round two, but I definitely see a world where we look back and we're like,
44:00man, Trey McBride just outscored Brock Bowers again. Easily.
44:03I agree. Got him in round three. So I like him.
44:06I am not as bullish on Wilson as you.
44:08I really did like him as a prospect. The rookie supermodel's low end comp though for him was Cortland Sutton, which is
44:14kind of where I'm at with him at this point.
44:17And having to play outside, he is going to get, he's going to get a more diverse route tree this year.
44:23So I think there is the potential, right? For him to be unlocked.
44:27If he was going in like round seven, I would probably get him a lot more in redraft.
44:32The main reason I haven't is just like some of the tight ends and the quarterbacks and stuff that go in that same range.
44:38I'm really into them. And so it's, it's, it's where Marv goes is a tough spot for me.
44:43And I will say this with Michael Wilson, while he wasn't a great prospect for me on the model, bad first two
44:49years in the league, didn't really show anything. And historically guys that have done that have not been good.
44:55But I will say the thing that they are doing with him is like, he's the guy that's getting to move all over.
45:01And it's not so much that I think Michael Wilson's going to smash, but like if, if they're doing that stuff with
45:07Wilson, it's just enough that like if Harrison, if I thought it was just Harrison and McBride, I would feel a lot better about Marv.
45:14But then it's like they're scheming up Wilson. And so Wilson, even if he's not great, he's going to get some easy looks off of that.
45:21And so I'm kind of just avoiding those two receivers, to be honest.
45:25Oh, for 2026. And I'm taking that ride. Yeah.
45:27Just now, long-term. Yes. I still think that Marv is the overall bet with the best price tag right now in Dynasty.
45:33Yeah. Yeah. I tend to agree because people even ask me, what do you, you know, if you're so in on Marv, what do you think this year?
45:41And I'm like, no, I don't know about this year.
45:44You know, it's sort of a, it's a little bit of a cop-out, but yeah, I mean, it could, look, this could
45:50be a huge transition year where they're terrible and then they go out and get, you know, a quarterback and it all changes next year.
45:57You know, who knows, obviously I'm not projecting Arizona to like take some big leap, but in terms of just, you know, things change is all I'm saying.
46:05They're projected to be pretty bad. So they may have a chance at the quarterback thing.
46:09I mean, they're not going to have the three, the three darts at it, like the jets, you know, but yeah, there's a chance.
46:16There's definitely a chance. And again, to be clear, I am not necessarily fading McBride in terms of like, oh, I think he's bad.
46:23I just think that, yeah, you're right. 15 fantasy points as opposed to 18.
46:26What awesome. He's awesome. I, you know, I always temper these things with, you know, if he, if everybody was saying, oh, he's, you know, he's, he's done.
46:34He's never going to do this again. It's like, no, hold on.
46:38He's awesome. You know, I'd be pushing back against that.
46:40I just think that sometimes we get like, you know, little, little over, you know, over our skis with these things.
46:46And then Brian was to be clear, like in redraft, he was overpriced to start like this off season.
46:51Like he was going in the beginning of round two.
46:54And I was just like, yeah, I was like, nah, I can't, I can't do that versus the backs and receivers in that range.
47:01But then like this thing kind of took over that's pushing him into the middle of the third round.
47:06I've gotten him at the end of round three, uh, in redraft stuff.
47:10And, and that's where I'm just like, yeah, I know you're not saying is a bad player, but that's where I'm just like, okay, fine.
47:1715 fantasy points per game from my tight end.
47:19I'll take it. Let me ask you this. I mean, how many more routes do you have Trey McBride running this year than Colston Loveland?
47:26My point is, I think Colston Loveland has as much upside, maybe not as much floor as Trey McBride, but I think
47:32he has as much upside as Trey McBride, but at a much cheaper price.
47:36And of course in dynasty, he's still cheaper even in dynasty.
47:39So for me, Colston Loveland clearly ahead of Trey McBride and dynasty.
47:43And maybe this year, I'm not saying I'd project him there.
47:46I still would have Trey McBride projected ahead, but pretty close.
47:49Yeah, I've got him really similar in routes. So I've got Colston Loveland at an 86% route share last year.
47:54He was at 63%, but we saw once commit, once he took over for commit, like he was really up in the, in the eighties.
48:01And the thing I I'm with you on the upside of Loveland, like he's my most drafted tight in, uh, in the first four rounds of fantasy drafts.
48:09The challenge is now McBride has fallen to a point to where he and Loveland go back to back, right?
48:15It's like McBride, then Loveland's off the board. So I try not to be around or something, two or three rounds.
48:20Yeah. Early on, it was, it was like so easy.
48:23And I will say, I don't take even McBride all the time in round three because of the tradeoff costs in round
48:29three are different than in round four. And so if I can get Loveland in round four and I can pass on
48:35McBride and maybe I secure another running back I like in the middle of round three and redraft, then I'm definitely willing to do that.
48:42Um, so their routes are actually really close. I mean, Colson Loveland and McBride are not very far apart in my overall projections and fantasy points per game.
48:50So I really like both players like McBride now that he's priced where he is.
48:54And, uh, if I don't get him, I'm happy to go Loveland.
48:58And if I miss that, I'm just going Tucker craft.
49:00Like I'm all in on Tucker craft. Okay. This wouldn't be a fantasy football show.
49:04If I wasn't asking about Parker Washington, the, I mean, I can't get away from this Parker Washington talk.
49:10No, you can't. It's true. You can try, but you're not going to do it.
49:14So we're not going to do it here either.
49:16We're going to put you on the spot and, you know, just ask basically, you know, how do you feel about this Parker Washington situation?
49:23How do you feel about how things are going to go with the Jaguars wide receiver hierarchy?
49:28Considering that, you know, BTJ still is a high end first round pick.
49:32What are your thoughts here? Yeah. I think a lot of this like comes back to the roles.
49:37Like, so there's two ways to look at this one.
49:39And honestly, I was really torn on Parker Washington because if you look at prospects that have been similar to him, so
49:46taken in the same range of in the NFL draft and really never doing anything over their first two years.
49:51And even in the third year, it didn't, didn't break out until the second half.
49:55If you go back and look at the comparisons for that, like guys, they're, they're not good.
50:00They're not a lot of names here. You're not going to lie.
50:03Hunter Renfro, Rashard Matthews, Marquise Goodwin, Marcus Wheaton, Russell Gage, and Juwan Jennings.
50:07And so when I see that list, I'm like, man, that's, that's not ideal.
50:11That's not, not, not, not all those guys were terrible moving forward.
50:14Some of those guys were serviceable, but they weren't guys winning your fantasy league.
50:18But then it's like, you do have to look at like the intensity of his breakout over the second half of last year.
50:24And the fact that he's paired with Liam Cohen, who had Chris Godwin scoring almost 20 fantasy points per game the year
50:31before, whenever he was playing the same role. Now Godwin's a very good player, a better prospect than what Parker Washington was.
50:37So I'm not saying that's, that's perfect. But when I look at Washington and then you just hear the consistent drum beat like from camp.
50:44And the main thing that I've been listening for is like, is when Travis Hunter is rotating onto the field, it's, he's
50:50not doing it in camp for Parker Washington. He's doing it for Brian Thomas Jr.
50:54They want to use Travis Hunter in a more vertical role, like what he was used in college.
50:59And so that was basically the green light for me.
51:02And I did move him up a tier in my tier rankings.
51:05I moved him up into tier five. I've got him at the very bottom of it.
51:09I think that Washington and redraft this year, he's in play in round five.
51:13I love him and Christian Watson a lot in that range.
51:16Um, when you look at him, it's just like, again, it's back to the, all this bigger picture stuff we've been talking about.
51:23He's the guy they're going to move all around.
51:25Yep. And he's got some size five, 10, 204, right.
51:28We're not talking about 180 pounder. And so, yeah, I mean, it's, it's look, he's a tricky one.
51:33It's a boom bus. We're having to take him in round five.
51:36It's a very boom bus kind of pick. Um, so if people want to shy away from it, I don't necessarily blame you.
51:43Um, I've definitely been, I grabbed a lot of shares.
51:46When it was cheaper. Um, but I'm still drafting him in the fifth round.
51:49I'm not doing it every time, but I still draft him quite a bit.
51:53Dwayne, I'm going to introduce you to tuxedo risk.
51:56Okay. The tuxedo risk is when you, is when you look back on something and go, we should have seen this coming from a mile away.
52:03And it comes from the movie stepbrothers. You remember stepbrothers?
52:06Yes. Okay. When they show up in the tuxedos and Seth Rogen is interviewing them and he's about to hire them.
52:12And then they fart. Remember the fart? And he's like, you just fart in here.
52:16Like, and then he says, Seth Rogen says to him, he goes, yeah, now the tuxedos don't seem as cool anymore.
52:22It was like, you should have known when these two idiots walked in with the tuxedos, you should have known.
52:27We, we, uh, we've, we've joked about it. So Parker Washington would be the one where if he just ends with like,
52:33you know, 90 targets, you know, 70 catches, you know, 700 yards.
52:37What's interesting about him is either way it goes, right?
52:39If he busts, there will be all the people, you know, and I, we, you and I would love prospect profile kind of stuff.
52:46Look, he clearly wasn't talented enough for you guys to be pushing him into round five of drafts.
52:51Right. But if he booms, it's going to be, Hey, all you people that were just focused on the prospect profiles, like
52:57you should have known that this player who did so great last year now in Liam Cohen scheme and getting to do
53:03basically the offense is like designed around that position.
53:06You should have seen that. So it's like either way.
53:09That's right. And the middle ground is where I try to get to, you know, and I will lean more to the
53:15profile or versus, you know, the situation, you know, in different scenarios.
53:18The risk with Washington is still very crowded. I mean, you do have BTJ, you do have Jacoby Myers who they just paid.
53:24They also just re-upped Brenton Strange. And then you do have Travis Hunter, you know, who they want to get some playing time on offense.
53:31So it, the way it goes wrong is it's like the new version of the Packers.
53:36Yes. Right. Where we could never for all those years, I think we get some breakouts from the Packers offense this year
53:42now that it's condensed, but they would rotate all these guys and it's like, Oh great.
53:46Like, yeah, it's like every third week, one of them has a good week, but we don't know which one it's going to be.
53:53Yeah. That's, that's the concern. So I know you got to get out of here.
53:57We'll, we'll get you out on, on, on. We'll hit these rapid fire on these.
54:01All right. Rapid fire. Rapid fire. First one is Patriots backfield.
54:04Uh, what are your thoughts real quick? Give me, give me a minute on Patriots.
54:09Yeah. I still want Trevion long-term. Like we'd saw that he can break leagues last year, right?
54:13For the people that are looking at it and they're like, Ramondre is going to start the season of the starter.
54:19I think you're also right. Two things. These two things can be right, but I don't think there's a scenario where Ramondre Stevenson breaks my fantasy league.
54:27And I look back at it and go, man, wish I would have had that.
54:31And now Trevion's dress, his price is falling enough, which I hated early on.
54:35I was like, man, I really want Trevion Henderson.
54:37But people were like so rabid about it. Like I couldn't get him.
54:41Well, now he's at a price where I like it.
54:43So he's still the best long-term bet, obviously in dynasty.
54:46And I still think if you're trying to win a redraft league this year and you're just looking for a player, because
54:52imagine if Ramondre Stevenson went down tomorrow, Trevion's in everybody's top six rankings next week.
54:57Yeah. If Trevion goes down, Ramondre is going to be a mid range running back too.
55:01That's true. Yep. That is the difference. Okay. Ready for this one?
55:04We don't like the outside X. We don't like wide receivers attached to terrible quarterbacks.
55:08Why do we like Carnell Tate? Why do we like Carnell Tate?
55:12I mean, do we have a problem in Tennessee is I guess what I'm getting at.
55:16Yeah, we have a massive problem. Bad offensive line.
55:19We have massive quarterback question marks and we have a player that's going to have to win in the hardest way possible,
55:25which I think that Carnell Tate is fully capable of doing.
55:28He's definitely great. Here, like in this spot. So yeah, I don't have a lot of Carnell Tate this year.
55:33I think in dynasty, if people start souring on him, like, you know, maybe there's a price, right?
55:38Where things become, you know, something where you're like, all right, now I want to buy on this, but I don't, I don't have high hopes for 2026.
55:46Yeah, I'm with you. Okay. We're going to, we're going to end with my boy.
55:50Um, I mean, we could talk for hours. I talked for a long period of time with, um, Andrew Cooper last week
55:57about the tight end profiles, but basically a Rondé Gadsden, a Rondé Gadsden dead or alive.
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56:40See Lowe's.com for more details. For Dynasty, he's alive.
56:43For this year, he's dead. I mean, whenever you look at Mike McDaniel and what he does, he did this to Mike Gusecki.
56:49And Ronnie Gadsden's a better player than Gusecki. Sure.
56:51But remember, whenever McDaniel came over to the Dolphins, suddenly Gusecki fell into this massive part-time role.
56:56Like lucky to get 40% routes in some games.
56:59And they tell us what their signal of bringing in Charlie Kohler, bringing over Njoku, bringing over Alec Ingold.
57:04They're going to run a lot of 21 personnel.
57:06And then the preseason, he wasn't on the field for those plays.
57:10And then when you look at the camp reports, not on the field for those plays.
57:14So I think the way Gadsden could still be, you know, pay off this year is like, you know, an injury could
57:20happen or it could be a situation that if like the Chargers defense is not as good without mentor there anymore and
57:26they have to get into more shootouts, he's going to be on the field when it's obviously they need to throw.
57:32So if they're in a comeback mode, I think Gadsden in those games like could be like a DFS kind of value and a shootout kind of thing.
57:40He's definitely a very good player. I just think right now for this year, though, he's super tricky.
57:45Yeah, it's very tricky. I don't like it all.
57:48It's difficult to understand. But you mentioned just it sucks because he's one of the people on those was the most excited about going into this offseason.
57:55And we're excited about what Mike McDaniel is doing for everyone else in the offense.
57:59But the guy that I was excited for Darren Waller last year definitely had some some opportunities in a Mike McDaniel system.
58:05I also think, look, you know, Charlie Kohler isn't going to be running any scenes.
58:10OK, he's not. Now, maybe it's just a killer.
58:12Because he's going to be the guy out there and what could be their base offense.
58:16You know what I mean? I know. It's brutal.
58:19It's brutal. All right. I ended on a down note.
58:22Look at that. No, I'm joking. I'm still like Gadsden long term.
58:25I do. I do. Last year was fantastic. Yeah, exactly.
58:28I think he's still a buy in Dynasty, especially right now because he's so cheap and everybody thinks he's absolutely dead.
58:34I don't think he's dead. I agree. No, he's not dead in Dynasty.
58:37Hey, man. Thanks for coming on. I know you had a finite period of time.
58:41I could talk to you all day. I could listen to you all day and I will be listening to you all season.
58:48Tell everybody where you're at. Of course, I already shared, but anything special that you want to mention?
58:53Any shows that I'm not, I didn't mention? Yeah.
58:55You guys can check all my work out over at fantasylife.com.
58:58You can use the code Dwayne, D-W-A-I-N 20 to get 20% off.
59:02My projections are there. My rankings are there. All my articles, my tiers.
59:05Perfect draft strategy for redraft this year, whether you're Yahoo, Sleeper, ESPN.
59:09I update that every week. So I know another big draft weekend is coming up.
59:13And then you can check us out over on YouTube on the Fantasy Life channel or anywhere you get your podcasts, all that kind of stuff.
59:20Fantasy Football is Life is the one where I'm doing multiple per week, having different guests on, drafting a lot of teams,
59:26just so you guys can kind of see. And we test different things out and see how the draft goes.
59:32And you go, I don't want my draft to go that way.
59:35And we may be feeling the same way, but we test some of that stuff out for you guys.
59:40And we put some real money on the line for it, $300 entries.
59:44So you can check those out. I know it's a few weeks away, but your utilization report literally is something that I
59:50can't wait to get my hands on every year.
59:53Me either, man. I love the first few weeks of the season.
59:56It's like a Christmas. It's like opening up Christmas presents.
59:59It is, dude. I love it. And I'm just like, oh my God, I'm so excited.
60:03Yeah. My editors hate me in the first few weeks because I do write, not super long, but I have so many things to cover.
60:10There's so many things to talk about. Yes. Yeah.
60:13Yeah, exactly. You can't even fit into a show.
60:15So I want to have you back on if you'd be so great.
60:19Yeah. Yeah. Let's do it once we get there.
60:21We'd have to have like four hours to talk about things.
60:24No, but you know what I mean? It's like, there's so much.
60:27I don't know what I would pick. We'd have to pick the most important, but it's so valuable.
60:32I could literally listen to you and read everything that you're putting out there at that time.
60:37So I'm imploring everybody who's listening to make sure they do that because it's some of the most valuable things that come out of fantasy in the world.
60:45I love it. Thank you so much. Hey man, thank you for the kind words and really appreciate you having me on again.
60:51Appreciate all that you do, all the work, you know, you guys doing your model.
60:56I love this space where the models are different, you know, and there's different, you know, we align on a lot of things, not on everything.
61:03And I think the thing is like, we see NFL teams, like they miss on this stuff, you know, too.
61:08So it's, it's, it's all just a process and it's, we're all really like trying to help each other.
61:14You know, we all learn from each other, but I appreciate you having me on.
61:18Appreciate it. It's supposed to be fun. Cheers to that.
61:21On behalf of everybody here at the undrafted, on behalf of everybody here at OTC, on behalf of the greatest podcast producer to ever walk the earth, Mr.
61:28Michael P. Duncan, you have been joined by Dwayne, the rock McFarlane.
61:32I am Jax Falcone and we are out. Labor Day savings are happening now at the Home Depot with select appliances starting at $399.
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