0:00Welcome into the lineup fantasy football show. I'm Mitch Anderson.
0:03I'm Justin Mello. And we are joined as we so often are on Monday mornings by Dynasty Dad from Smash Accept.
0:08What's going on, man? Another crazy week. Another great time to start making some buys.
0:13Yeah, we are a quarter of the season in the books.
0:16If you have any start set questions, trade questions or anything else we can do to help you win your week five
0:22matchup and beyond, let us know down below and we will answer every single comment.
0:26Like I said, we are a quarter through. This is when the important trades happen and we are going to try to set you up.
0:32on the right path to win yourself a championship.
0:35But as always, the lineup is presented by Dabble Fantasy.
0:38Download and sign up for Dabble, then use the promo code LINEUP to get $50 in bonus cash when you play your first five.
0:44It's been awesome seeing so many of you follow us at lineupmitch on there.
0:48We'll be dropping our Monday Night Football picks exclusively on the Dabble app this morning.
0:52So go check that out. But Mike, let's jump into your first player that you're buying after week four of the NFL season.
0:58Yeah, I mean, I think every year we can consider that certain things are going to happen, right?
1:03In life, it's death, taxes and a slow start from Chase Brown.
1:07And, you know, Chase Brown this past week, if you just box score, you look at nine carries for 10 yards.
1:12But that 11 receptions is absolutely insane. We look at what he's been able to do, you know, over the last couple
1:18of years is he's always had a slow start where he's in that RB2 rage.
1:22And then down the stretch, back to back seasons, finishing as RB8.
1:26With Jamar Chase going down, we saw him getting those multiple receptions.
1:29But what I'm really looking at is what's coming up, right?
1:32A lot of people are going to say, well, I spent a late first and early second on him.
1:37He's not really producing 3.6 yards per carry. It's not quite there yet.
1:41They got Miami in week five, which we all know is just the juiciest of juicy matchups.
1:45They're going to rely heavily on him, especially if Jamar Chase misses any time.
1:49Week six by then we go into a shootout against Baltimore and a game against Tennessee.
1:53And I think a lot of you guys are struggling right now.
1:57I think once we get to that quarter point like we are, you know, some of you guys are one in three.
2:03Some of you guys are four and oh. There's a lot of opportunities there.
2:06And I think right now I'm buying Chase Brown.
2:09And I think especially going into next week, and this is something once we start to get into the bye weeks, I
2:15really pay attention to is like if a team is one in three or, you know, there's oh and four.
2:20You say, hey, you have Brown this week, but next week's a bye.
2:24Like you're going to need to move off of him because you're going to lose those points.
2:29And it becomes much more of a week to week matchup based off your trades and how I tend to look at the way I play redraft.
2:36A hundred percent. We actually this is part of the lost archives of the line of fantasy football was we recording a
2:42rankings episode last week that somebody forgot to hit the record button on.
2:45We won't say who we're all looking for the guy who did it.
2:49But I had mentioned to Mello that Chase Brown might be the Jamison Williams of running backs, that the beginning of the season is just so unbelievably frustrating.
2:57And you don't know what to expect. And then something just like clicks every year.
3:01And all of a sudden he just becomes like a league winner down the stretch.
3:05And I feel like we're walking into that again.
3:07And I feel like now is the right time to buy because like you said, we've got some great matchups coming up.
3:13We saw it this week, like it wasn't the huge explosive performance, but I want to say it was like 19 points from Chase Brown.
3:20Like there's enough to know that he's still got it.
3:23He's still involved in this offense. And like you said, if Jamar Chase misses any time, that's an even bigger bump for Chase Brown in the short term.
3:30Yeah. And you know, he's going to continue to get the volume like this isn't a situation where there's a backup or
3:36somebody else lurking behind him that could start taking work away.
3:39If the inefficiency continues, it's going to continue to be Chase Brown in this explosive Joe Burrow led offense.
3:45So even if there are those inefficiencies, you know, there's going to be the involvement, especially in the passing game, which is
3:51even better that I'm not too, too worried going forward.
3:53But I'll move on now to my first buy, which is a wide receiver, and that is Stefan Diggs.
3:58After the hot start, he only accumulated 15.8 PPR fantasy points over the last two weeks.
4:03I think some Diggs managers might be getting frustrated over the last two weeks.
4:07They might be able or willing to move on from him for cheaper than they might have been willing a couple weeks ago.
4:13But I still like him just as much now as I did a couple weeks ago.
4:17First off, he still had 16 targets over the last two games, including nine in week four.
4:22And second off, he's like the only healthy wide receiver in Washington right now.
4:26That receiving core is beat up, but he is still standing.
4:29And lastly, the point I'll bring up is with this Mariota MCL injury, this commander season is in jeopardy.
4:34And I think we're going to see Jaden Daniels back earlier in action than we maybe originally expected.
4:39He may be more pass happy than he was before, too, not willing to run the ball with that elbow injury.
4:45And the Washington Post has already reported Jaden Daniels is aiming to be back week five.
4:49So we could see him back next week, which is great for Diggs, given a Diggs has passed the eye test with flying colors.
4:55By the way, if you've watched the commanders, he's looked phenomenal.
4:58He's looked like he has not lost a single step.
5:01And Jaden Daniels is the quarterback that got him three touchdowns his first two weeks.
5:05Diggs exploded those first two weeks like we talked about.
5:08So if you can get him for a reasonable price, I love him rest of season.
5:12Sometimes fantasy football is so easy with splits when you just look at the first two weeks and the last two weeks.
5:18And it's like, what's the difference? He didn't have a starting quarterback.
5:22And like you said, the reports are coming out that Jaden Daniels is being a warrior and he's going to try to
5:28get back out there sooner than later. Of course, there's questions of how effective he'll be once he's out there.
5:33But I have to assume that Stefan Diggs production is going to tick back up.
5:37And like you said, even if you like know it in your heart of hearts that that's why Diggs hasn't been as good the past two weeks.
5:45As a manager, you're definitely frustrated with the production.
5:47You might be telling yourself a story that Diggs is washed and he's old, especially if you're a box score watcher and
5:53not somebody who's actually tuning into these games. Or you were watching this London game with the guy who broke the record
5:59for most vowels in a name of all time, throwing him the ball.
6:02So I think once Jaden Daniels is back, we're going to have much brighter days for Stefan Diggs.
6:07This to me is the image of what a buy low should be in fantasy football.
6:12This is what I love about this show is, you know, I'm starting to get my show ready for Smash Accept.
6:17And I'm like, we're going over who we're going to cover, who are going to be the buys.
6:22And Melo's put Diggs out there. I'm like, dang, that was going to be my number one guy, you know, and we're all in tune with those things.
6:30And, you know, what's great is not everybody in your league is.
6:33You know, a lot of people are out there, they're box score watching.
6:37They're not paying attention to the real things that matter.
6:40So great choice there, Mel. So thank you, sir.
6:42All right, let's move on to our third guy.
6:44Let's talk about the exciting rookie for the Cleveland Browns and maybe not the one you think.
6:49Let's talk about Casey Concepcion. Mike, I actually brought him to your show last week as a dynasty buy, and I want
6:55to bring him up here as an obvious screaming value in redraft.
6:58I just talked over the past two weeks about how obvious the Carnell tape breakout was, that it was imminent.
7:04And then we just saw it in a nine for 145 effort off of 12 targets.
7:08But Casey Concepcion may not have the raw fantasy football output that his teammate Denzel Boston has had.
7:13But all the signs are there similar to what we were seeing with Carnell Tate.
7:17We're seeing week by week an uptick in targets.
7:20This guy has 17 in the past two games as opposed to Denzel Boston's 11.
7:24If you watched him on Thursday Night Football, he's just so unbelievably twitchy.
7:27He's so good with the ball in his hands.
7:30He's quietly become the number one target in this weirdly competent Browns offense.
7:33And don't hear what I'm not saying. Denzel Boston has been incredible as well.
7:37I think you should be pumped to have him if you do have him on your fantasy team.
7:42He's just a lot more difficult to go out and get right now because he's gotten the big touchdowns and the splashy plays.
7:48But heading into week four, these two are ranked as the top two rookies in this class in average separation score.
7:54And not that it matters all that much, but the rumors came out after the games yesterday that they're looking to trade
8:00Jerry Judy, which would obviously open up even more targets for Concepcion in this offense.
8:04So I think now is the time as we look at this kind of quarter point in the season to trade for
8:10rookies and try to be early rather than late on their breakouts.
8:13I'm looking at Casey Concepcion as a guy that a manager might say, well, he's the wide receiver 60.
8:19I can give him up when I'm seeing a guy who has 28 targets over the first four games of his career
8:24as getting better with each and every outing. I just think he's such an obvious buy.
8:29Yeah, one of the biggest things we talk about on this show, particularly in redraft, is trade for rookies.
8:34Even if you don't draft them, trade for them after their slow start because every year there's two or three rookies that
8:40just explode down the stretch in our league winners.
8:42And Concepcion could be one of those guys this year.
8:45You mentioned Carnell Tate, another guy we love. He hasn't had the splash plays like you mentioned with Boston, which is why he's affordable.
8:52But he kind of is operating as this team's number one receiver.
8:55If he starts finding the end zone like Boston has been, absolute league winner potential.
8:59And I love the way that Deshaun Watson's played.
9:02I know when we first did week one, we started talking about those guys that we were going to buy because we're
9:08like, oh, Shador is going to come in and he's going to favor Casey Concepcion.
9:12Deshaun Watson's been unbelievable, you know, and that offense just continues to get better and better.
9:16And you're right. I mean, when we talk about the rookie process, I mean, Casey Concepcion was a guy that much better
9:22draft capital, a guy that we all wanted on our dynasty teams, where I think that's going to translate into redraft talent always wins out.
9:29And Boston's been phenomenal. But I think Casey Concepcion is a nice cheap buy.
9:33100%. Mike, before you get into your next best trade suggestion, if you want specific trade questions or in-depth analysis on your
9:39team and how to get it on the right path towards the championship, you can get one-on-one support from me, Dynasty Dad,
9:45Mello, Snoog, and Brandon on the Smash Accept website.
9:47You can get 25% off of your first month with the code LINEUP25.
9:51But Mike, give us your next guy that you are buying like crazy going into week five.
9:55Yeah, this has been a little bit of a theme, you know, like every single time I've come on here, it's been
10:01certain themes of buying undervalued guys, buying guys that people don't quite believe the narrative.
10:05Right now, I'm going to go with a guy where I'm like, I'm buying guys that have that injury discount right now,
10:11because you need to take advantage of your league mates based off what their schedule is, you know, and what they're looking like.
10:18And originally, I was going to say Tyler Warren, because I love him.
10:21I love, you know, Colston Loveland. But I'm going to go with Devonta Smith and low-key A.J.
10:26Brown. So for me, Devonta Smith is one where when he played, right, he was unbelievable.
10:30The target volume was there. The production was not 100%, but we're looking at a guy that was 33% target share, you
10:36know, averaging almost nine targets per game. Saquon's banged up here with a hamstring injury.
10:40Devonta could be back as soon as this week, but the schedule is coming up is juicy.
10:45Jaguars, Panthers, Cowboys, three potential shootouts, three opportunities there to put up some crazy points.
10:49And, you know, I'm buying in. A lot of people are really down on that Eagles offense.
10:54I'm going to be buying in on Jalen. I'm going to be buying in on Devonta.
10:58And I think when we look back on this as well, Drake May started to come around.
11:03I'm buying A.J. Brown. You know, you've got to look at every single one of your teams.
11:07I'm scouring through my lineups and I'm like, oh, my gosh, this guy just lost right now.
11:12And he is now one in three and he has A.J.
11:15Brown on his bench. I'm going to make an offer at 80 cents on the dollar and see what I can do.
11:21Because we all know, I mean, if you go one in four, you're looking at a 10 to 12 percent chance of making the playoffs.
11:28You know, so you really got to make sure you go two and three, not one in four going into week five.
11:34100 percent. You just hit us with an absolute curveball.
11:36I was not expecting those two. Mello, for our next guy, I'm going to do something unprecedented at the lineup and I'm going to skip over you.
11:44But let's break down the Devonta and A.J. stuff.
11:46I think A.J. Brown, I one thousand percent agree with.
11:49I think if you were waiting to see if Drake May could put together a competent game, a shocking upset win over
11:55Buffalo where he passes for three touchdowns was exactly what you were looking for.
11:59Romeo Dobbs, to me, in this Patriots lineup is kind of what you were hoping to be like an A.J.
12:04Brown light. And you saw Drake and him connecting on Sunday.
12:07I think that when A.J. Brown fits back into this lineup, the two of them are going to be going gangbusters.
12:13Such a great buy. And I completely agree on Devonta Smith.
12:16I think there's so much negativity around this Eagles team right now.
12:19Devonta misses a game. But if you actually look at the production, the target share, the important things that we look at
12:25in fantasy football, Devonta Smith is a screaming value right now.
12:28100 percent agreed. And going back to A.J. Brown, too, you're right.
12:31It's good to see that Drake May played well.
12:34I think that should hopefully give you some confidence in A.J.
12:37Brown when he's back. But the other good thing is this offense has struggled for the most part without him.
12:42You know they're going to funnel this offense through him once he's back.
12:46Exactly. He's going to be uber targeted. Now there's more injuries for the Patriots receiving core.
12:50Matt Collins is banged up. You got Efton Chisholm making game-winning plays because just out of necessity, you don't have anyone else.
12:56So once A.J. Brown is back, he is going to get hyper targeted.
13:00100 percent want to buy, get that injury discount like you mentioned.
13:03100 percent. All right, Melo, here's where I'm going to skip over you because this is just too perfect.
13:08I was going to talk about Jalen Hurts. And I was going to say that this guy feels gross to buy in fantasy football right now.
13:15But sometimes when a guy's gross to buy, he's also dirt cheap because managers are so frustrated.
13:20You might not get a buy low this low all year on Jalen Hurts.
13:240 for 12 on third downs this week. 10 passing yards in the second half.
13:28The entire situation just a massive yikes out of Philadelphia.
13:31It has been a horrific watch if you've tuned into Eagles football.
13:34It should be like TVMA. Do not let your children in the room.
13:37The vibes are absolutely horrendous. And yet Jalen Hurts is the quarterback 11 on the season.
13:42Take advantage of a manager who simply does not want to watch this anymore.
13:46When I promise you that barring injury, this is going to get better for Hurts.
13:50Especially, Mike, when Devonta Smith gets back. You talked about the schedule coming up.
13:53The Eagles have the eighth best strength of schedule remaining for fantasy football quarterbacks.
13:57I've said to Melo, he's officially a check the box score quarterback for me.
14:01I cannot stand watching this offense. But if you want objectively a great buy for fantasy football output, bang for your buck quarterback.
14:07One that you don't need to pay much for.
14:10Hurts is your guy. I think the Jacksonville matchup could be a little rough on him.
14:14But after that, you get Carolina, Dallas, Washington. Ranking sixth, third, and second in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
14:20Plug your nose and trade for Jalen Hurts right now if you're in need of a quarterback.
14:25Yeah, and it ties perfectly with Devonta Smith. He's going to get him back.
14:29That's going to help. You hope that Makai Lemon continues to come along, become more competent, become more comfortable in this offense.
14:35I'm not too, too worried about Jalen Hurts. Yeah, and, you know, being the elder statesman there, Melo called me sir, so
14:41I was feeling a little bit old. So I had to throw that curveball in there.
14:45It's all respect. You know, and try—oh, yeah, no, I appreciate that.
14:48You know, and try to mix it up there.
14:51I mean, but, yeah, I'm with you. I mean, like, as a guy in the Philly area, even the Philly area people
14:57do not want Jalen Hurts on their fantasy team.
14:59But he puts up fantasy points every single week, you know, like, even if it's not pretty, it's still going to be there.
15:05And even last year, I mean, people—he finished as a back-end QB1, but most people feel like he was an absolute failure
15:11for fantasy because he didn't finish top five. With Saquon out, though, too, I mean, you could see more rushing opportunities.
15:17You could see a guy that's really trying to reinvent where he's trying to take this offense.
15:22And a lot of quarterbacks are really struggling with new offensive coordinators.
15:25Jalen Hurts is on his—he's never had—this is something crazy I saw the other day, but he's never had an offensive coordinator back-to-back since high school.
15:32You know, so, like, we're looking—he's getting— Crazy. He's getting used to that Sean Mannion offense, you know, and you want to
15:38give him a little bit of lead way. I think once Devonta gets back, I think things will start coping.
15:44You got to hope that he starts figuring it out the way Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel have been cooking.
15:49That's just the premier situation with a new offensive coordinator.
15:52I was going to reference that, but it just hurts too much.
15:55It felt too mean. Yeah, that's—that is a disaster in Los Angeles.
15:58Well, I am not used to caboose, but I'll do my best here to wrap up the show with flying colors, and
16:04I'll be talking about a tight end, Dalton Kincaid.
16:07Take it for me, a guy who I will admit, I've been out on Dalton Kincaid pretty much his whole career, just
16:13every year, year in and year out. But I do think he's a buy-in redraft right now.
16:17Only three catches over the last two games, 45 scoreless yards.
16:20I mentioned last week on a show with you, Mitch.
16:23I still think he has the same floor as all the other gunk at tight end.
16:27Like, the floor week in and week out is pretty low, and we witnessed that Sunday.
16:32But his ceiling remains higher than everyone. It's still—not everyone, but higher than anyone else that you're streaming or you view as a low-end tight end one.
16:39His ceiling is so much higher than those guys.
16:42So let's put into context what happened in the last two weeks.
16:45The Bills played the Chargers and the Patriots, who have both been phenomenal against opposing tight ends, particularly the Patriots, who have
16:51really been elite against tight ends, at least from a fantasy football perspective.
16:54And Josh Allen himself has played his two worst games of the year so far the last two weeks.
17:00Granted, that's a very high bar for Josh Allen, but he still came up short of it, which didn't help.
17:05Now you have this DJ Moore shoulder injury. That doesn't sound great.
17:08This Bills offense could very easily go back to utilizing Kincaid as their top receiving weapon, all things considered.
17:14And for what it's worth, we're still seeing Kincaid on the field more, running more routes than we have seen throughout his career.
17:20That's the one thing that still gives me confidence.
17:22It's not like we've seen in years past where he's on the field 40% of the time, 45% of the time.
17:28He's pretty consistently on the field. So I still feel good about that ceiling.
17:32I would not sell the farm for him because, as I mentioned, the weekly floor still is very low.
17:37But I like the idea of buying that upside, especially if you're struggling with streaming tight ends and you can get Kincaid
17:43a little bit cheaper than you may have been able to a few weeks ago.
17:47I'm entirely in. I think the talent is so obviously there.
17:50The upside is so obviously there. We're finally seeing the usage.
17:53Two off games, but I think you explained it away pretty well about what the situation was.
17:58I'm with you. It feels like I saw enough to know that I want Dalton Kincaid, and now I'm getting a little bit of a buy low window.
18:05I wouldn't get yourself scared off of him. I'd go get him right now.
18:09Yeah, and everybody's out there running to their waiver wires for Keon Coleman and with the DJ Moore injury.
18:14You know, I'm with you. I think it's going to be Dalton Kincaid.
18:18Keon Coleman's one that he's one of those guys that sucks you back in every now and then.
18:23You're like, oh, wait, maybe he isn't. No, he doesn't separate at all.
18:26He is the Odyssey siren song every time. I think he's just Gabe Davis.
18:30I think they just got rid of Gabe Davis and got Gabe Davis again with Keon Coleman.
18:35All right. Well, those were I was about to say six of our favorite buys heading into NFL week five.
18:40We actually got a free one in there. So those were our favorite seven buys after week four of the NFL season.
18:46Thank you so much, Mike, for joining the show.
18:49I will be on the Smash Accept show today, and we will be talking through some dynasty trades.
18:54As always, leave us a comment down below. Then you start set questions, trade questions or anything we can do to help
19:00you win your week five matchup and beyond. But before we get out of here, Melo, do we miss anything?
19:05Nothing for me. All right. We'll catch you guys next episode.