Davis Mattek - Grinding the Variance: Mason Dodd's Fantasy Football Strategy
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
2 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 22, 2026
Published
Mon, June 22, 2026
33
Player insights
32
Players mentioned
Topics
Patrick MahomesA.J. BrownAaron JonesAdonai MitchellAmon-Ra St. BrownBo NixBraelon AllenBreece HallBucky IrvingChase BrownChristian McCaffreyGarrett WilsonGeno SmithJa'Marr Chase
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue29:08
Brown is selected as the second receiver in the draft, with the analyst noting the Chase-Brown combination is relatively unique at 12% ownership.
Insight pageAaron Jones
PositiveValue19:00
Aaron Jones is used as an example of a solid mid-round running back option in a zero-RB build, paired with Achane as the anchor.
Insight pageAdonai Mitchell
PositiveRole10:54
Mitchell is being pushed as the best receiver on the team, suggesting he has a significant role in the offense.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveValue28:48
St. Brown is part of a unique draft combination with Jefferson and another receiver, suggesting strong value in that pairing.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveProjection10:00
Bo Nix is expected to be available in the next turn of drafts as a late-round quarterback option.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
PositiveProjection30:24
Allen could benefit from improved Jets offensive competence if Geno Smith starts all 17 games, though he is a secondary beneficiary compared to the team's primary weapons.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveProjection29:30
Hall is viewed as having asymmetric upside due to potential improvement in the Jets offense, with strong talent metrics including good juke rates and above-average yards per carry.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveBreakout15:00
Bucky Irving was a late-round running back hit in 2024, demonstrating the viability of late-round RB value.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue3:00
Chase Brown is preferred over Derek Henry in PPR redraft formats due to better value and upside relative to current ADP.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection15:00
Christian McCaffrey is 29 years old and underweighted in the speaker's portfolio, reflecting concerns about age and injury risk for first-round running backs.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveProjection30:00
Wilson's upside is directly tied to Geno Smith starting games for the Jets; if Smith starts 17 games, Wilson would be valued higher due to improved offensive competence.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveProjection30:00
Smith's starting status for the Jets is a key variable affecting the value of multiple Jets offensive players; if he starts all 17 games, it would indicate a competent offense.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveValue25:45
Chase is selected first in a best ball draft, indicating strong confidence in his value and production potential.
Insight pageJames Cook
NegativeProjection15:00
James Cook is significantly underweighted in the speaker's portfolio, indicating skepticism about his value relative to ADP.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue5:00
Javante Williams is highlighted as a late-round running back value with upside from manufactured touches.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveUsage20:00
Running backs who play with Jaden Daniels get a significant efficiency bump of approximately 0.5 yards per carry; Daniels has helped not-particularly-good running backs accumulate yards and points.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
Joe Burrow
PositiveValue26:35
Burrow is paired with Jamar Chase in 20% of the analyst's teams, but this combo is underweighted compared to the broader database projection of 27%.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeInjury15:00
Jonathan Taylor has missed an average of four games per season over his career and is underweighted in the speaker's portfolio due to injury concerns.
Insight pageJustin Fields
PositiveRole10:00
Justin Fields was signed by the Chiefs as a backup, though Mahomes is expected to start week one.
Insight pageKaytron Allen
PositiveRole18:00
Katron Allen is expected to compete for the early-down role in the Commanders backfield but won't be the primary back.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveValue17:00
Keaton Mitchell is considered as a fifth running back option in zero-RB builds.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeProjection13:00
Kenneth Walker is significantly underweighted in the speaker's portfolio at 3.4%, indicating skepticism about his value relative to ADP.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeProjection12:30
At this point in his career, Cousins is viewed negatively, with the analyst stating 'he stinks' and suggesting his past performance does not support current expectations.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveValue5:00
Kyron Williams represents a late-round running back value opportunity due to manufactured touches and lower talent requirements at the position.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
Malik Willis
PositiveValue17:00
Malik Willis is a preferred late-round quarterback pick for zero-RB builds, offering good value in the speaker's strategy.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveProjection10:00
Patrick Mahomes is expected to be drafted in the sixth round alongside Daniels, Hurts, May, and Caleb Williams, no longer available in the late rounds.
Insight pagePositiveInjury10:00
Patrick Mahomes is cleared for 11-on-11 drills and is expected to start week one with minus-1000 odds, indicating no injury concerns.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeProjection15:00
Saquon Barkley is 29 years old and underweighted in the speaker's portfolio, reflecting concerns about age and injury risk for first-round running backs.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveBreakout15:00
Travis Etienne was a late-round running back hit in 2024, though not as early as a double-digit round pick.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
PositiveSleeper18:00
Tyrone Tracy is positioned as a potential league-winner in zero-RB builds; he will consistently rank as RB30 in projections while catching passes and accumulating points through volume.
Insight pageWill Levis
PositiveProjection11:40
Levis is discussed in context of potential rookie quarterback starting patterns, with the analyst noting that modern first-overall picks typically start significant games in their rookie season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Derek Henry has been frame-mogging the nerds for years.
0:03Literally, I think seven years at this point, we've said he can't possibly keep getting away with it.
0:09I've given up. I've given up, Mason. You go to my rankings on flockfantasy.com.
0:14I've got him ranked exactly at average draft position, I believe.
0:18Where do you have Derek Henry ranked? I mean, I guess I can check.
0:23I can check. I bet you're almost the low man on flockfantasy.com on Derek Henry.
0:28I'm most likely am. And I need to correct the record here.
0:32Derek Henry has not been crushing us every year.
0:35Okay, we've had a winner too. Go back. We've had two wins.
0:39It's true. So there's been two conclusive wins for the nerds.
0:432023, big win for the nerds. 2021, absolutely crushes, but only plays eight games in that season.
0:49And those were the... And frankly, as we... Last season, if it wasn't for week 17, which obviously ended up being the
0:57week that everybody cares about, of course. But Derek Henry was bad last year until week 17.
1:02Running back 58, running back 25, 43, 29, 13, 9, 14, 22.
1:07Turns it up 8, 5, 11, then 22, 29.
1:10Then, of course, week 16 against the Patriots, running back nine.
1:14And then week 17, the money, the money week, running back one overall.
1:18You know what? I remember the last touchdown coming through against Green Bay, just being like, there's no way.
1:25They're not gonna... No way is he scoring this next touchdown.
1:28Because that game was, if I remember correctly, it was on Friday, I think.
1:33Isn't that right? It was on... It was an island game, Friday or Saturday.
1:38And just being like, well, I didn't have him on any of my finals team, so Sunday's not gonna be that fun.
1:46Yeah, exactly. I mean, I was in two separate small field finals, like ignoring...
1:50I was in a couple different of the flock tournament finals.
1:54I was in some, like, puppy finals. But, like, the small field stuff, I was in the finals for the Big Dog.
2:02I was in the finals for, I think, the Great Dane or something.
2:06And those were, like, only 10-person finals. And only one person across the two tournaments had Derek Henry.
2:13But as soon as, like, the first half of football happened, I was like, okay, I got a 0% chance in this one.
2:21But through the first 16 weeks, he was the RB 16 in points per game, and he was a second-round pick.
2:28But are you more or less into him in managed?
2:31Like, best ball is, like, one thing. Honestly, I take him to kind of take my medicine in best ball.
2:38Like, I'm comfortable with it here. But looking at, like, I've started to look at, like, the ESPN and the CBS and the Yahoo stuff.
2:47Dude, he's, like, a first-round pick. On ESPN, Derek Henry is 18 spots ahead of Kenneth Walker, who I know you don't really like either.
2:55But the Henry redraft prices are crazy to me.
2:59Yeah, I'll take A-chan, to be honest. And I know that's a horrible take because how bad the Dolphins offense projects.
3:06But especially in a PPR redraft format, give me A-chan.
3:09And, hell, I may even rather have Chase Brown.
3:12I mean, the deal with A-chan is if he, if the Dolphins had just run back what they had last year, like,
3:20let's just say everyone gets a pass, McDaniel doesn't get fired, they're running it back with Tua.
3:26I mean, he's a first-round pick. It's just everyone is convinced the Dolphins are going to be, like, beyond bad.
3:33Like, the worst thing we've ever seen, basically. Yeah, if it wasn't for, like, if the offense was neutral, A-chan would be the 103.
3:41Yeah, he certainly is. I think his scoring outcomes, were he on a good team, are totally the same as B-chan and Gibbs.
3:49Last year, the Dolphins averaged 20.4 points per game.
3:52This year, sportsbooks have them at 18.9. So they're supposed to score 1.5 points per game last year over year.
3:59All right, we're on the 2-3 turn. We've got Gibbs.
4:02What do you generally do here? I'm fine if you wanted to take Rice.
4:07All right. I have actually been taking a little bit less Rice there.
4:12And then, do you do Jeremiah Love? Do you do Brees?
4:16Do you like McBride? I would take Love over Brees for sure.
4:20Yeah. But my biggest thing every draft I step into, again, is falling behind at wide receiver and not being able to catch up.
4:28Which I know that's the opposite take of everybody else this year.
4:32For whatever reason, everybody acts as if the running back's the only thing that matters.
4:37Because last season, all the top guys hit and none of them got hurt.
4:42But I think very easily we could go back to what we saw 3, 4, 5, 2 even years ago.
4:49In which running backs bust at a higher rate than wide receivers in the early rounds.
4:55You have higher ceilings from the late round guys.
4:58Because, again, talent matters less at the position. Right?
5:01You can just get manufactured touches. And I think you can end up having some late round hits at running back this season.
5:09It's been true every single year of fantasy football.
5:12This was even true. They don't want you to know this.
5:16But it was even true in 2024. Not true in 2025.
5:19But having 3 wide receivers through 6. This is Hayden Winks' article up on underdog.com.
5:25The math changed a little bit. It used to be 4 through 7.
5:29Now it is 3 through 6. But, I mean, you are hitting a key point.
5:34That I feel is definitely going under-acknowledged at this point.
5:38Like, yes. There is more of a place in fantasy football now for guys like Kyron Williams or Javante Williams.
5:45Because, I mean, the older guys haven't been getting injured.
5:48Backfields are priced more efficiently. Like, you know, back in my day, Byshell Tootin would have been a 10th round pick in this exact same circumstance.
5:57And Chris Rodriguez would have been a 4th round pick.
6:00But in my mind, after Burden goes at 21, I don't know if there's anyone I think can finish as a top 12 wide receiver.
6:09I mean. Here's the thing. I used to get made fun of.
6:13I made videos back in 2022, 2023 when the wide receivers were significantly more expensive.
6:18Saying that the dead zone at running back didn't exist.
6:22Because that's all anybody would ever talk about in any videos or live streams.
6:27So the running backs in the middle rounds were the biggest values.
6:31Because everybody and their mom was like, You can't take the guys here.
6:35Don't you know that's what idiots do? And that's what allowed me to win multiple tournaments.
6:41And now, I think the dead zone's back. Because...
6:44The dead zone is back. It is big time back.
6:47Has anybody said that phrase to you all year long?
6:51You know, nobody... That used to be every single person's talking point.
6:55Can I share my screen real quick? Yes. I did a ton of research into this for a really in-depth video.
7:02But I looked at all of the top running backs and wide receivers that were drafted.
7:08The top 36 guys with their ADP. The amount of games that they played.
7:13Their fantasy football finish. The outcome of these guys.
7:16Got all the averages. For every year that we have Best Ball Mania data, right?
7:21So, going back to 2021. So, we have a pretty large sample here.
7:25I made an entire video breaking this down. But what you can see with this a couple different times is, One, the price of these running backs.
7:35Like we saw in 2024, the average ADP of a top 36 RB being pick 67.
7:40Now that's up to pick 44. Right? So, significantly more expensive.
7:44As opposed to where we've seen the wide receivers fall down dramatically in price.
7:49And I think that this is mainly fueled off of, If you look at the games played for these running backs, We
7:56have the historical numbers being like an average of around 14 games played for the top 12 drafted guys.
8:0313 and a half games played for the top 24.
8:06And about, say, 13 and a half games played for the top 36.
8:11We have massive outliers over the past two seasons.
8:14Over the past two seasons, the running backs stayed healthier than the wide receivers.
8:19Which we really don't have precedent for. And I mean, it makes sense.
8:23Running backs are going to touch the ball 200, 300 times more than the wide receivers through the season.
8:30Like, in comparison to where they're getting drafted. So, the injury rates for the top drafted wide receivers over the past two years being higher than running backs.
8:40Seems like it's a massive outlier for me. And also, if we go through and look at the bust rates of the position.
8:48Like, if you were drafting a running back that was inside the top 12 of ADP in 2025, They had a 67%
8:55chance to finish as a top 10 back. And we go back to like 2021, 2022, 2023.
9:01That was anywhere from like 33% to 42%. So, what's happened is over the past two years, we have massive outliers.
9:08With the top drafted running backs, they were the guys that hit.
9:12They stayed healthy in comparison to the wide receivers getting injured.
9:16And this has caused their price to be more expensive than we've ever seen.
9:21So, I think a lot of like the running back centric stuff that people are going through right now is honestly short-sighted.
9:29And it's reactionary to what happened last year. It's reactionary to what's happened the most recent two years.
9:35It's reactionary to the fact that wide receivers have actually gotten injured.
9:39And running backs have not. For most of fantasy football, it's been wide receivers generally stay healthy.
9:45They get tackled less often. Running backs generally get injured much more often.
9:49Running backs generally, they'll be more ambiguous situations. We have actually multiple ambiguous situations this year, right?
9:55We have the commanders. We have the Packers running back too with Jacobs, you know, potentially being a legal thing.
10:02We have the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield being relatively ambiguous.
10:05Minnesota Vikings, both guys go after pick 100. Yeah, there are loads of spots like this.
10:11I took the two highest guys by your rankings at our last pick.
10:15Can we get Makai Lemon here? Yes, we can get Makai Lemon.
10:19We can't get any of our quarterbacks. I'm fine if you want to take a running back.
10:25Any running back you want here? I would be.
10:28I have Warren slightly higher. And I actually do like Warren.
10:32And we should be able to get at least Bo Nix at the next turn, potentially.
10:38I mean, Mahomes, I guess, never makes it to 96 anymore.
10:42That was a small fledgling period where we were able to get the elite quarterbacks that late.
10:47I think by the time the Mason Night Streams are getting 2,000 concurrence, I think Mahomes is probably going to end up being...
10:55My guess is he's going to end up in that sixth round morass with Daniels, Hurts, May, and Caleb Williams.
11:02So he's good to go week one? Right now, on all the sportsbooks and the prediction markets and stuff, he's like the
11:10equivalent of like minus 1,000 to start week one.
11:13And then Andy Reid said yesterday or two days ago that he is cleared for 11 on 11 when they come back for real training camp.
11:22They're done with organized team activities. But yeah, I mean, look, you know, anything is possible.
11:27Maybe they do sit him out a week or two because they just want to like, you know, that's why they signed Justin Fields.
11:36But I would doubt it. Awesome. Well, yeah, I've pivoted where I was scared to draft Rice, like the initial jail stint.
11:43When we had like no clarity whatsoever of like what his rehab situation was and what his situation in county jail was.
11:51Because whenever I had looked it up and talking to people in my live stream, they're like, county jail, there's no like Wolf of Wall Street, Jordan Belfort.
12:01Like, hey, you're getting the special treatment, you're playing tennis, you know.
12:05But once we got the report like halfway through his stint that they were allowing somebody to go into the facility and like help him with rehab.
12:14You know what? It's even it's even more. It's even more cushy than that, Mason.
12:19They let him leave every day. Oh, I didn't hear that.
12:23I thought that they were letting somebody come in and help him.
12:27Yeah. So so I believe that was what happened at first.
12:31But by the final two weeks, he was getting to leave and go to Parkland Memorial Hospital every day for PT on
12:39his knee because, you know, he's he's a professional athlete.
12:42Yeah. So now I'm more willing to pull him up.
12:45Um, there to the two, three turn than I was.
12:49Yeah, I like it's obviously maybe slightly worse in basketball mania because you are going to have some people who are able
12:57like some someone, you know, whenever we get data sets up, someone's going to have them at 42 or whatever.
13:03You know, what percentage of drafts do you think that accounts for?
13:08Because like how what percentage of drafts were in zeroes?
13:11Yeah. Point zero zero three percent are going to have a significantly better price.
13:16Um, all right. So we missed out on all of our other quarterbacks.
13:20I think we do. Well, if you're scared, I like the one time I am scared of getting boxed out of quarterback
13:28run is when we're here at the turn, like pick one, pick two, pick 12.
13:33I was going to say go party and Ricky Pierce all.
13:37But now that that's gone, I would, um, hear pivot to downs worthy or take LaPorta and see if we get golf on the way back.
13:46I don't know if I'm pulling up Bo Nix this far, but if you want to, I'm not going to argue.
13:53All right. Well, you know what? I never Mason.
13:56I never really draft like this where I totally let the quarterback window go by me.
14:02So let's do we have Gibbs love Warren rice, waddle, Jamo lemon downs and worthy.
14:07So we at least got Daniel Jones to fall back on.
14:11Um, definitely. If you look at the tool, I mean, this is definitely going to end up being a three quarterback team, uh, almost a 2% split.
14:20There, um, nice part of the game tree with running back.
14:24And then I, I do, I do actually find this quite often when you do not have a round one or like
14:31round two, like elite wide receiver that you, you're never are getting that friendly of a, of historical advance rates.
14:38No. Yeah. And like historically again, it goes back to like, if you remove the recency bias that we have from what
14:46happened this past season, historically wide receivers, no around.
14:49And I think it's a lot of, but I think it's a lot of, but I think it's a lot of, you
14:57know, the last year it didn't happen. Right. I mean, who was the best?
15:02Do we have an example of two or three late round running back hits from last season?
15:07So we had Bucky Irving in 2024. Like Travis Etienne was late last year.
15:12Um, but I mean, it wasn't even like round, round six, round seven.
15:17Yeah. I mean, it wasn't even like he was a double digit round pick, like all the top running backs staying healthy last season.
15:25Dowdle. Dowdle was strong, but bad in the, but bad in the post season.
15:30Oh, you know what? Javante. Yeah. Javante was the, he was the, he was the big hit.
15:36And guess what? Because I'm a loser and I hate old guys, even though he's not even old.
15:42I had like, I had like 4% of Javante.
15:45Very, very painful. But like, so we have one solid example, you know?
15:49Um, so last year was obviously extremely different, but I think we have such a large sample in the NFL of running
15:57backs getting injured at a higher clip, running backs, busting at a higher clip, late round guys.
16:03Not only that, look at all these guys who go in the first round.
16:08Christian McCaffrey is 29. Jonathan Taylor has missed an average of four games per season over the course of his career.
16:15Saquon Barkley is 29. Uh, Derek Henry is 32.
16:18You know, it, it's just, these guys are on the precipice.
16:22I am underweight every other than B. John Gibbs.
16:25I think B. John and Gibbs have to be one on one one Oh two.
16:30Yeah. But let me pull up my best ball portfolio real quick.
16:34I think, um, a Chan, I am solid with, but a Chan and Chase Brown are around two guys that I take a lot.
16:43Um, Amari and Hampton. I'm in line with the market for, but I'm underweight.
16:47Derrick Henry. I'm underweight. CMC underweight. Jonathan Taylor underweight.
16:51James cook and way underweight. Saquon Barkley. He didn't even guys.
16:54He didn't even say underweight Ken Walker. Cause it, Oh, I am underweight Kenneth Walker too.
17:00Let me pull that up. Kenneth Walker met 3.4%.
17:03So, you know, it's funny is in that range, I'm underweight all those guys too, but for very different reasons than you, I'm underweight on all those guys.
17:13Cause I have 21% of Kenneth Walker. So I only have like 4% of all the other guys.
17:19Cause I have Walker ranked at the turn in my stuff.
17:23Um, all right, let's see. Are we going to get lucky?
17:27We did not get lucky quarterback. We got, we got the opposite of lucky here.
17:32So I think we, I, I always take Malik Willis in this spot.
17:36Let's pull him up. Yeah. Every, I think Malik Willis is, is perfect for this type of build.
17:42Now, do you want to drag up another one?
17:46No, we're not. We're definitely not dragging up another QB.
17:49Um, I like JCM a lot or one of these tight ends.
17:53I would take conception, but if you want JCM tag him.
17:57Yeah, we're going to take, we're going to take JCM.
18:00I just, I actually, uh, just did a video this morning that's coming out right after this about like, if zero running
18:08back works out, like, and we're looking back on the season who are going to be the most obvious guys.
18:15And I mean, other than to say the obvious, like handcuff guys, like, Oh, uh, Jonathan Taylor got her yet.
18:22I think that the two situations that make it super possible are Tyrone Tracy, who just is like going to every week, you're going to do your projections.
18:31You're going to do your rankings. He's going to be ranked as the running back 30.
18:37He's going to catch like three passes. He's going to just kind of grind out like eight points a ton at a time.
18:45And then the other one is the commander's backfield where you've got Rashad white is going to play that Eckler role and
18:52either Corey Krosky merit or Katron Allen is going to win the early down roll, but they're, they're not going to play Rashad white 70% of the snaps.
19:02There's no way. Yeah. Um, I, I don't know.
19:05I'm not going with too many traditional, like zero RB teams, or I'm not taking a running back until round six around seven.
19:13Yeah. Me either. But I am very often taking, like, I did a $500 draft the other day where I took Devon
19:21a Chan as my anchor in my next drafted running back was like Aaron Jones.
19:26And every single person in the comment section was like, Oh, this team has no shot.
19:32No running back too. Yeah. You know, like that's a build that I'm a lot more comfortable with.
19:38Like taking your shot on like, if you like Kenneth Walker, of course, in round two, going with Kenneth Walker and then
19:45going with like a six RB, um, six RB build where you're running back to, you draft as your Corey Krosky merit around 11, you know?
19:54Yeah. And then you take your stab on five late round guys and see if you can hit on two or three of them.
20:03I mean, JCM, I think can be very efficient on the ground.
20:07I mean, we, this is one of the things, I mean, you'll definitely know this, that all of the research is guys
20:14like running backs who play with running quarterbacks get a huge efficiency bump.
20:19Like it's like 0.5 yards per carry. Uh, I mean, we actually saw this with Jaden Daniels, each of the most recent
20:26two seasons, some, some very not good running backs turned up a bunch of yards and points with Jaden Daniels there.
20:34And I mean, I watched a lot of K-Tron Allen at Penn state.
20:38I do not think he's particularly special. Rashad white is making the Rashad white has the same contract that Emmanuel Wilson signed with the Seattle Seahawks.
20:47Like I don't think they view him as this super important part of their team.
20:52Like if you, I I've been making this joke that if you live in a no state income tax state, you're going
21:00to make more money this upcoming year. If you win best ball mania, then Rashad white, because he signed a $2 million contract in Washington DC.
21:09Well, that's what I've been saying. Like I would want to be all in on Rashad white if it wasn't for the
21:16contract, but the contract is the only reason where I'm like, they gave him out your money, two years, $10 million with some incentives, a hundred percent.
21:26Or even like if they gave him the Kenneth gain well contract.
21:30Yeah. Oh, the gain well contract for sure. We have to take Daniel Jones here.
21:35Got to take dimes. Can you start by ADP?
21:38Sorry. Yes. Yeah. Sorry. Sorted by ADP. I'm fine to take Keaton Mitchell.
21:43If you want him as our fifth RB, would you rather do that?
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23:36I'll take Gadsden if you want. I like Gadsden.
23:39I am never of like... A big mistake that I think I've made in the past is like being afraid to fall behind at tight end.
23:48Not realizing like, hey, you can draft tight ends around 16, 17, 18, hit on two of them that are just going
23:56to give you 10 points a week. And like you don't necessarily need the 25-point spike from the tight end position to win a tournament.
24:05I actually... I mean, I just love late-round tight ends this year.
24:09Like, they're a bunch of these guys. Like, honestly, I mean, we took Gadsden and I like Gadsden.
24:15But like, you've got Juwan Johnson who has a good role.
24:19Greg Dulcich is like a huge ADP steamer. Fryer-Muth Ferguson.
24:22I mean, even like A.J. Barner. A.J. Barner, I mean, I don't know if I really believe this, but he could...
24:29Like, he ran six tush pushes last year. Like, does A.J.
24:33Barner find four touchdowns that no other tight end finds?
24:37Like, maybe. I don't know. There are plenty of guys I can sell myself on.
24:42With the tight end position, I think one thing that's super interesting, and I know I've asked you this in the past, is like...
24:50The elite tight ends, obviously. Like, hypothetically, like, if you're saying you're looking at your historical advance rates based on team you draft.
24:58You take Bowers or McBride in round two or three.
25:02The elite tight ends have busted more times than they've, like, hit for, like, a league-winning season in that range.
25:08So, like, curse your grade and stuff. I haven't cared.
25:12I'm still taking Bowers and McBride in rounds two and three.
25:16Is that how you're approaching it, too? Totally agree.
25:19I just accept that when I do one of those teams, like I take Bowers or I take McBride, that at best,
25:26I'm going to get, like, a B+. You know?
25:30Yeah. Because that's just... I mean, the sample sizes are so small of the elite tight ends that...
25:36Like, I believe in the BBM data set, there's one Gronk season and then, like, three Kelsey seasons.
25:42And then also, the Bowers season from last year that was, like, if I remember correctly, like an 8% advance rate because
25:50it was so expensive and was hurt. And... There's one other thing.
25:54Oh, yeah. Let me know what you think of this thought process.
25:58Because every time I see somebody take Bowers and then, like, Loveland in round four, or, like, McBride and then Loveland in
26:05round four, I don't agree with the argument that people will make that, like, oh, it's okay to take Bowers and reach
26:13on Loveland ahead of ADP because Loveland can outscore the wide receivers in round four like Luther Burden.
26:19Because my thought process with that is if you're taking Burden there and you assume that Bowers hits, right?
26:26Mm-hmm. Effectively, Burden can... I mean, sorry, you take Loveland.
26:29Loveland can only slide into one slot inside your starting lineup as opposed to you take Burden.
26:35Burden can fill one of four holes in that case.
26:39You know? Yeah. I have taken Bowers and Loveland together for sure, but only when it's a spot where they're...
26:46Honestly, probably they're both after ADP. Like, probably I got Bowers back in this left corner and then also got Loveland in
26:53maybe, like, round five or something like that. Super narrow part of the tree, but I do think it makes some sense.
27:01All right. We have to pull up Rodgers. Yeah.
27:04I'm totally fine with that. And then do you want to take any of these wide receivers or do you want to take one of these?
27:13Oh, we should take Dulcich. Yeah, if you want.
27:16Yeah. That's called buying the top, Mason. If you don't get it at a cheap price, you just keep buying.
27:23Although the drum beat has been consistent enough on Dulcich that I actually probably expect his rise to be similar to, like,
27:30what has happened with Chig this offseason where he starts out cheap and then just incrementally gets expensive throughout the entire course of the drafting season.
27:39Where's your updated take on Iyuk? Do you think it's any more likely or less likely that he's a commander in comparison
27:47to where we were two weeks ago? I think it's more likely that he's a commander.
27:52I mean, I never thought he was going to play for anyone else.
27:57The reason why I am more into it now is we've started to get some official 49ers mouthpieces.
28:03I believe his name is Mike Lombardi. But there's been a couple guys who are close to the team who've been like,
28:11yeah, they're just going to cut him. And the big barrier for Iyuk getting to the commanders this whole time has been
28:18that the 49ers are going to be hard-o's about getting trade compensation, which at this point I don't think they're going to get.
28:26I just don't think anyone will do it. At what point do they have to cut him so they don't have to pay him?
28:35They don't have to because he is technically in violation of his contract by not reporting.
28:40There hasn't been anything mandatory that he has to show up to yet.
28:45It's only been voluntary stuff. But if he doesn't show up to mandatory training camp, they can just say, we're not paying you.
28:53You don't count against the cap. We don't have to pay you.
28:57You're not honoring your contract, which is what they're hoping.
29:00Because what nightmare scenario for the 49ers is Iyuk shows up healthy, passes a physical, is ready to go, but is just making everyone miserable.
29:09No one wants him there. So that's what they're hoping.
29:12Well, that would suck. Because my take on Iyuk at the moment is let me draft him as much as I can in round 17 and 18.
29:22Or I'm even taking him in 16. Because the second that he were to be a commander, he's a 10th round pick, 11th round pick.
29:30Yeah, I think he will certainly rise. I think he probably ends up in the range of like Omar Cooper Jr.
29:37to Jalen Coker somewhere in there. Because there will be enough people that are like, hey man, last time we saw Brandon, he wasn't even any good.
29:47I mean, he was bad for the 49ers before he hurt his knee.
29:51Would you rather have Iyuk or Jaden Higgins? I would rather have Iyuk for the commanders, for sure.
29:57No doubt. I'll just be curious to see what the market does.
30:02Three tight end is a big jump for us here.
30:05Yeah, I mean, we have to take a three tight end.
30:09And I mean, it's just the obvious pick with Rodgers.
30:12Yeah, Byron was super obvious. You know what, I don't know if I've ever seen this before.
30:18But the tool has our highest projected advance rate with four running backs.
30:23I maybe don't remember that. And just look at the underlying math behind it.
30:28Yeah, so I would disagree here. I would go five running backs and seven receivers.
30:33Like I look at the math of it way more than I look at the recommendation at the bottom.
30:39So yes, yeah, I'm with you there. Do you have a favorite of this group of?
30:45Wow, sniped. Sniped on Friermuth. We could take Darnell Washington around 18.
30:49I wouldn't like to do that. Is there any can get a running back and receiver?
30:54Yes. I'd be down to take Emmitt Johnson here.
30:58All right. Emmitt Johnson, can I sell you on Terrence Ferguson here as our third tight end?
31:03If you want him, yeah, take him. Do we have a stealer?
31:08Oh yeah, we have Jalen Warren. So I am, for a little while, I was stopping taking Terrence Ferguson as my third tight end all the time.
31:17I read the most bullish thing imaginable about him last week.
31:21And I just can't stop. This is from The Athletic talking about what the Rams did with their wide receiver room this offseason.
31:29Because it's a little bit strange to not add a wide receiver when one of your wide receivers is 33 and injured his hamstring.
31:37And I believe this was Jordan Rodriguez. It might not have been.
31:41But they were basically like, oh, well, the team just thinks Terrence Ferguson is a wide receiver.
31:47So Ferguson is just going to eat up two, two out.
31:51Well, snaps. Obviously, he can do the inline stuff and then would obviously be in line for more work.
31:57If Devonta Adams were injured. And I was like, OK, well, this dude is the wide receiver three for the Rams at pick 195 at tight end.
32:07I'm probably just going to have. Man, I have.
32:10I might end up with 30 percent of this dude in the end.
32:14Well, that'd be incredible. Yeah. I mean, we've drafted Jordan Whittington in the past.
32:19I think we can take Terrence Ferguson. You know what's funny with the Whittington thing is if Whittington had been on any
32:27other team that wasn't the Puka Nakua team, he would have never been drafted.
32:31But because it was literally the round 18 Puka team, people were like, oh, yeah, got to take Jordan Whittington.
32:38I used to. Obviously, I went to UT at the time.
32:42Jordan Whittington did. And he was like 17 years old in high school, like he's supposed to be in high school.
32:49And my spring semester, he walked into one of my classes like he was somehow on campus early and taking classes at like 17.
32:58And then I walked by him during COVID. I would go to like a little field called Clark Field on campus.
33:05And for my all the gyms are closed. I just do pull ups at the park.
33:10And I walked by him and the dude did not look like a wide receiver.
33:16He looked like a middle linebacker. I was like, this guy is freaking massive.
33:20Got it. He's got he's got that. He's got those big traps and stuff for a wide receiver.
33:27Yeah. Good for him. Oh, you would have been there at the same time as Xavier Worthy for at least for at least a little while.
33:36Right. At the at the at the very at the his freshman season should have been your last year there.
33:43I think. Well, let me see. I believe you're right.
33:46I didn't go to any of the games my senior year because that's when I started live streaming every day.
33:53Yeah, I was there with Worthy same time. Wow.
33:56And that was when Worthy was really good. Right.
33:59Because where they broke out immediately. He broke out as a true freshman in the SEC.
34:05I mean, people forget. They forget because he played with the torn labrum last year.
34:10You know, whatever. To be fair, he never got any better at his during his time at Texas.
34:16No, in fact, you could argue he got worse.
34:19Can we do you want to take Chris Bell?
34:22Because the only way this seems any good is if Malik Willis somehow starts all year.
34:28Do you take any of these other guys ever?
34:31Because Chris Bell is probably not going to play until November.
34:35You want to take Caleb Douglas? Yes. Yes, I do.
34:38I honestly I think Caleb Douglas or Kevin Coleman or two to out.
34:43Well, or any of these guys are honestly they're they're probably better picks.
34:47I think Chris Bell is I'm sure you've seen this before, but people just get anchored to whatever the ADP is like
34:55you're talking about a guy who might just like straight up red shirt his rookie year in the NFL.
35:01Well, I think our team sucks, but I think it's because we whipped on Bo Nix.
35:07If we would have got Bo Nix falling one more pick, then I think this team would have been great.
35:14Yeah, I don't. I mean, the quarterbacks are rough.
35:17Malik Willis, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers. We are going to need we're going to need old man Aaron Rodgers to do some
35:24heavy lifting or you know what, though? The Malik Willis stuff.
35:28I've been so many bad quarterbacks have been pumped up by the fantasy football community.
35:33You know, Richardson, Lance Field. Hey, hey, hey, we don't know if Lance was any bad.
35:39I mean, we don't know what we honestly we still don't know.
35:43I believe so. I sent this out as a.
35:46OK, let me bet on the record. I'm joking.
35:49Obviously, he's horrible. But oh, I'm being serious. I'm being serious.
35:53We don't we don't know. Because. Because. If you go all the way back to this dude's college career.
36:00Preseason NFL. He doesn't have a thousand dropbacks of of college of football above high school.
36:05We really don't know. We really don't know, Mason.
36:08The only way this team has any chance at all of doing anything in basketball mania is if Malik Willis is twenty twenty two Justin Fields.
36:17I would actually say seventy six rushing yards a game and one hundred and forty nine passing yards or Daniel Jones is
36:25Achilles is just fully, fully healed that which I would say I'm probably on the lighter side of the market on that.
36:32But there are there's some. Best ball site like some like rankings who are that are really high on Daniel Jones.
36:40What's our wide receiver core? Because obviously we have a ton of running back points.
36:45This to me is actually a great like I think this is a really good wide receiver room.
36:51Rashi Rice, Jalen Waddle, J-Mo, Mikhailem and Josh Downs, Xavier Worthy.
36:55And then just like a pure dart in Caleb Douglas.
36:58So, I mean, this team is banking on Kenneth Walker goes down, has to skew super pass happy and we get the bump with him at Johnson.
37:08Hey, I mean, well, I think we I think we take that.
37:12I think that's I think you offer me you offer me that deal.
37:16Be good. Good for my bags this year. I don't know.
37:20It'd be great for I probably I probably need to start drafting more Emma Johnson just as just as a total as a total bag protector.
37:29Do you want to do one more? Do you got to run?
37:33I don't have anything to do, my guy. All right.
37:37We're going to we're going to ship another one.
37:40You know, it's funny. I've a couple of times gone into a draft and being like, you know what?
37:46I'm just going to do whatever the overlay says just to get an A plus.
37:52It's very, very or an S tier. It's very, very hard to do when you draft from the turn.
37:58I have noticed that because you got to make weird decisions on the turn.
38:03Yeah. Like if you're on the turn, if you're at one or 12, a lot of your picks, you have to be
38:11especially in the early rounds, you have to decide one of two things.
38:15One, am I going to reach on a player to be unique or am I going to click the chalk at the
38:23top of ADP and have the quote unquote most value team?
38:26But at the same time, be duped a lot.
38:30Right. Where if you're taking James Cook and Barkley together at the turn.
38:34Right. That may be on paper a better start, according to like if you think that the market's efficient with ADP values.
38:42But that starts also going to be way more prevalent than like James Cook, Drake London, you know.
38:48So you either if you're at the turn, you're either going to have a team that's not completely duped.
38:54Obviously, no team's ever completely duped, but has a lot of overlapping combos.
38:59Right. Like the team we just drafted with Jameer Gibbs, Jeremiah Love.
39:03There are a lot of Gibbs love teams. Or you have to force your hand and reach on a player that is
39:11going at the 2-3 turn there at pick 13.
39:14Or reach on a player that's going at the 4-5 turn at pick 25.
39:19And have maybe a more unique start in comparison with the rest of the field.
39:24Which I would say I probably care the least of like the three components.
39:29I care about uniqueness the least. Like I just I think so much of that comes out in the wash.
39:35Do you ever not take Puka at 4? No.
39:39The top five picks I take in line with ADP because I think that they're the top five guys.
39:45And I want as much of them as possible.
39:48Yeah. The only guy at this point that I am not taking in line every time is Jefferson.
39:54And I'm honestly probably such a coward that by the end I will probably just have 8% of everyone.
40:01Other than Jefferson just because it's hard to undo that.
40:04I mean I'm starting to like pick six is where I call my shots.
40:09And I start to be overweight one guy, underweight the other.
40:13But first five like B. John Gibbs, Chase, Puka, JSN.
40:17I'm going to be exactly what the ADP is.
40:20You know. Yes. If I only had to live with the consequences of winning and losing money.
40:26And I didn't have to get online and talk about my best ball teams every day.
40:31I would probably just have 0% of Taylor. I think.
40:35Yeah. If I didn't have to like talk about my advance rate.
40:39I think I just wouldn't draft Jonathan Taylor at all.
40:42He feels the most out of place in the first round.
40:46I don't know if I showed you this. It may not be the most interesting thing to see with like the round one guys.
40:54But go to the ranking section on the overlay.
40:57And then scroll down just a bit. Look at like any.
41:01Click on like the info chart of somebody who's moved a lot with AJ Brown.
41:06AJ Brown. There's a new section that the devs put out.
41:10That's my picks. You can click this. And you can see exactly.
41:14Where like the ADP trend has been. Where you've been taking him.
41:18Your exposure versus the field. Your average pick versus the current ADP.
41:22So like whenever I look at my stuff. I was drafting a ton of Travis Hunter when drafts open.
41:29Right. So like if you look at the calendar picks.
41:33It's super backloaded to late April. Early May. And now that his cost is significantly higher.
41:38Like I don't have as many picks. As of late.
41:41But yeah. So you can see like all your.
41:45Like where you're taking them. How often you've been taking them.
41:48Your average pick that you've taken them at. The highest you've reached.
41:53The best value that you've gotten. That's. It's really funny because you can tell.
41:57Every day I've streamed. Because. Just any day that I've done a stream.
42:02I've taken Travis Hunter. You could tell it's every.
42:05Every. Every Monday. Every Thursday. There's. There's a Travis Hunter screen.
42:09That's very. That's very cool. That's a cool. That's a cool feature.
42:13Yeah. I need to be better about like. Communicating.
42:16When the devs push. I was going to say.
42:19I just. I just. Update. Every day. When I'm.
42:22Every day. When I get to my computer. I just update it.
42:26And more. More often than not. There is something.
42:29New. That's in there. Go to the combos. And throw Puka in.
42:34Because this is something that I generally do. At the beginning.
42:37Of drafts. So like. We can see here. With Puka teams.
42:41They take Henry. Like 10% of the time. Can you pull this down?
42:46Bauer. 16%. So. It looks like we're not getting any crazy big falls.
42:50But Henry would have been the most unique. But I would just.
42:54If all the. Exposures are flat like this. Anywhere from like 16% to 12%.
42:59I just take my highest ranked player. Which would be Bauer's.
43:03Yep. There we go. Now. Maybe. Maybe we can try.
43:06Maybe we'll do a little bit of. The old.
43:10The old modified. Modified. Zero running back here. Yeah.
43:13Like. One. Going back to like. My overall. Like complaints about where the running backs.
43:18Are getting drafted this year. A good example of this.
43:21Is Brees Hall going at 23. It's. I like Brees.
43:25But even for me. It's a bit much. Like that's ahead of where I have Brees ranked.
43:31Um. Like. It would be tough for me to take Brees over like.
43:35Nico Collins. As an example. Um. I. I have not.
43:39I've not done that yet. But I do take Brees.
43:42Everyone. Well. So. With Chase and Puka. Specifically. When I have this start.
43:46The Chase Puka. Than with Bowers. And you don't get Henry.
43:50You don't get Chase Brown. Sometimes I will take Brees.
43:54Although. The running backs available at the 4-5. I also quite like.
43:58So it's not. It's not nearly. Um. I think the running backs at the 4-5.
44:03Are similar to the guys here. I've never taken McBride on the Bowers team.
44:08Yeah. I agree. I'm cool taking. I. Either. Devonta Smith or Rashi Rice.
44:12Up to you. Let's take. Let's take Devonta. We did.
44:16We did Rashi last time. You know. Let me ask you a hypothetical scenario here.
44:21Because you play a lot more DFS than I do.
44:24And with tournaments. And obviously getting like. Um. Leverage over the field with ownership matters.
44:30Can you go to the combo section? And I just want to like.
44:34Go through a hypothetical scenario with you. Um. Throw Brock Bowers and Puka Nakua in here together.
44:40So let's go through the hypothetical scenario. In which 1.3% of the field is expected to have this combo.
44:47Then look at a unique combo at the end of this draft.
44:51Which is James Cook, George Pickens. So. Um. Get rid of Bowers, Puka.
44:55And throw James Cook, George Pickens. This may be less than.
44:59I would imagine less than 0.1%. Yeah. It's going to be.
45:03It's going to. It's definitely going to be. Yeah.
45:06It's going to be sub. Yeah. Okay. 0.1%. Hypothetically.
45:09How much worse of a start are you willing to have.
45:13In comparison to your rankings and projections. To have like 13 times the leverage.
45:18Over. Um. The other teams with. Like unique combos.
45:21You know. So. The. The primary argument against that.
45:24For best ball. Versus DFS. Is that. By and large.
45:27The unique combinations. Will end up taking care of themselves.
45:31Via. Yeah. In the rest of the draft. Yeah.
45:34So like. The combo that might feel really unique.
45:37In Cook and Pickens. Might not be. Maybe Pickens.
45:40Bump. Like bangs his knee. In training camp or something.
45:44That. That's one argument against it, which I completely agree in, which is why I would never look at this in the middle rounds.
45:52Right. I'm never looking at like, oh, how many teams got Bo Nix and Dak Prescott together because the deltas with the ADPs are so wide there.
46:01I would almost exclusively only look at it through the first like three ish rounds where the ADP deltas are very tight
46:09for the players that have stayed there through the majority of the contest.
46:13Like George Pickens, who exclusively goes to two, three turn and James Cook, who exclusively goes to the one, two turn.
46:20So I agree with that sentiment, like ADPs are going to change, even though it's something's maybe unique right now.
46:27It doesn't guarantee it's going to be the way through all the contest open, especially like every draft varies so much in the middle to late rounds.
46:37But I think in like that example, it may matter, you know, like specifically your first two picks with guys going.
46:44Very much range bound at the turns draft boards.
46:47So the I mean, what has generally been true in DFS is that people have largely overreacted to differences in ownership and
46:55that the most important thing is projected points that in fact, it's been relatively big in DFS.
47:01It's kind of been something that has really taken over the activity, like the most recent two seasons is people are just
47:08playing very, very non-unique lineups, just like really chalky lineups.
47:12And they're still simming out as positive EV because there's no replacement for points, basically, is is kind of the the long and short of it.
47:21We have to take scat here, right? Got to take got to take scat over here.
47:26Yeah, it's really nice. But here's like another example of how I'm looking at it.
47:31So hypothetically, say you draft Puganikua here at four, right?
47:35And in this hypothetical world, I have Chase Brown ranked ahead of Saquon Barkley, which is true.
47:41But if we pull up this tool and we go, hey, Puganikua teams draft Chase Brown 10% of the time.
47:47And Saquon Barkley never makes it there. They draft Saquon Barkley 0.3% of the time.
47:53I am completely ignoring my rankings at that point and taking Saquon Barkley instead.
47:57So you would disagree with that? I wouldn't. I wouldn't disagree with it.
48:02I actually would say in that spot where the guys are that close, it's probably fine either way.
48:08And really, when the projections are that close, it actually becomes more of a risk tolerance thing than an EV thing.
48:15The EV between choosing Chase Brown or Saquon Barkley is probably negligible.
48:20But it is relatively high in terms of how much.
48:23What do you want to do here? My ranking would have Swift as the highest guy.
48:29But at running back, which I'm fine taking RB here.
48:32Yeah, I'm actually light on Swift. So I'd like to get more.
48:36The EV of... I mean, even Pickens going at 16 now.
48:40I mean, that's an example right there. Pickens going at 16 where it's unique, but it ends up not being quite as unique as you think.
48:49And that's another thing that the Sims have kind of learned is that your EV, your expected value of a given team
48:57or of a given lineup changes more based on small ships and ownership that is just really hard to get right.
49:04So that's kind of why I end up being such an ADP respecter because my risk tolerance has decreased as I have aged, particularly up top, up top.
49:13In later rounds, I'm happy to let it lose.
49:17But yeah. Well, yeah, that is interesting because I will for sure, like, if a player falls to a certain point, I
49:24will go like, hey, nobody else is drafting this team out of the start.
49:29Nobody has Chase and Derrick Henry together. I'm taking Derrick Henry no matter where I am.
49:35No. So that is the completely correct way to do it.
49:38Getting the unique combo and the ADP value. Because what is...
49:42I mean, what everyone who studied Best Ball Mania has found that the...
49:47I mean, this is true in our tool. It's true in every tool, which is that the best teams are the teams
49:54that get real time and closing line ADP value.
49:57Like not really a better way to get a good team than to just get 10 spots of ADP value on a good player.
50:06For sure. Yeah. But how many drafts are we going to see Parker Washington go ahead of Brian Thomas?
50:12Dude, I'm a Brian Thomas Jr. guy. I've got him ranked ahead.
50:16But I'm starting to fall for the Parker Washington propaganda, Mason.
50:20I am. I will stand strong. There's a 0% chance I take this dude over Jordan Tyson, Brian Thomas.
50:27No way in hell. I think he's basically the most obvious fantasy bust of all time.
50:32Like, remember the year Gabe Davis was going in round four after the Chiefs playoff game?
50:38I remember. Yeah. I think he is going to bust that hard.
50:42But these beat writers will not stop talking about him.
50:45It's insane. They just keep talking like this dude is Randy Moss.
50:49I'm pretty sure Jalen Hurts is the auto pick for us.
50:53Yeah, it has to be. Anytime you have Devonta.
50:56I've noticed lately. With the overlay, I guess the ADP hasn't officially changed.
51:01Oh, Hurts is not. Marv, Caleb with Swift, Lemon.
51:04Up to you. I don't have a preference. I've noticed Marv.
51:08Let's take Marv because we have Bowers. Yep. But I have noticed that he's been falling to round seven in drafts now,
51:15which I had done a month ago. Yes. No more.
51:19No more AJ Brown. Got it. You know, got it.
51:22Got to drop Jalen Hurts, who's like whole deal is rushing touchdowns anyway.
51:27I'm sorry. Hurts has fallen to round seven a lot too, but I'm saying Marvin Harrison.
51:32I've noticed. Oh, oh. Oh, I have not noticed.
51:35I've not noticed Marv falling as much. I have noticed Hurts falling.
51:39I mean, I Marv is to me is like the classic 8% guy because I don't really believe in him.
51:46But the upside is so obvious that like if Michael Wilson can score 20 fantasy points per game, then I'm pretty sure Marvin Harrison can too.
51:55I'm fine taking whoever you want here. This is this is like these are like my least favorite picks.
52:02We don't have an obvious quarterback pick. You know what?
52:05Let's take big. Let's take big Q. I never I never take big Q.
52:10That'll be that'll be good to have a to have a Mason QJ team.
52:15It's much tougher to take him now in comparison when contest open and he was past pick 100.
52:21Because like the most common question I was getting whenever I started streaming every day again this year was like, who's this year?
52:29This year's Quentin Johnston. And my most drafted player at the time through the first like two weeks was Quentin Johnston.
52:36Was Quentin Johnston. But now that he is risen to where he's around seven pick, like I'm definitely I don't think he's overvalued.
52:44But I think this is where he should go.
52:48You know, where last year we were able to get him around 16.
52:52Obviously, I knew that wasn't going to be the case again.
52:56But I was surprised when he was going after pick 100 when contest open.
53:01And I thought I was going to be able to run it back with him being my most drafted guy.
53:08But now it's a lot tougher. Who's your who is your most drafted guy right now?
53:13Let me pull this up. Xavier. Xavier Worthy. No, I think I'm honestly getting scared off worthy.
53:19Ted Rowe McMillan. I know the week 17 matchups brutal, but I think he can be Drake London.
53:25Essentially, I think prospect profile comps out similar as rookie season comps out similar.
53:30The offense sucks week 17 matchup sucks. But I don't believe in Jalen Coker.
53:35I think Ted can get a 30% target share.
53:38Yeah. Yeah. I I'm well, it's hard. It's hard for me to get too ahead of him because again, I just take burden all the time there.
53:47But yeah, why are you why are you getting scared off of worthy just because he's getting expensive now?
53:54That and also like with Xavier Worthy, I was heavy in on him last year.
53:59And just taking a step backwards and like reevaluating his rookie season for what it was.
54:05I think I was maybe a little blinded by a couple things.
54:09One, maybe my UT bias. But at the end of the day, his rookie season, he had 1.32 yards per route run and a 17% target share.
54:18And neither showed signs of improving last year. I know last year he had the injury excuse.
54:24But I don't know. Back to back seasons at 1.32 and then 1.35 yards per route run in the Kansas City Chiefs offense isn't great.
54:32It's not it's not great. I mean, would be.
54:36I tell you what, he's pretty lucky he tore his labrum last year because it's real easy.
54:41It's real easy to create an excuse for him based off of that.
54:46Had he not torn his labrum and had that season, I think we'd feel a lot differently about him.
54:53All right. We are up. We have Dart as a potential here.
54:57Stafford is a potential here. If we're worried about getting boxed out of quarterback again like we did in the last draft.
55:04I mean, we can take Purdy. You can see we have the playoff matchups here.
55:09And then we can also get Pierce Hall or Kittle later.
55:13And and and Stribbling. Yeah, don't forget. Don't forget the 33rd overall pick in the NFL draft who's going in around 15.
55:21Which maybe we should have just clicked the top of my rankings with Godwin, especially knowing that the team after us already has Lamar in May.
55:30So assumption would be they're not taking a third QB.
55:33But I don't know. Can't be you can know a you can never be too sure out here.
55:39People people are clicking quarterbacks left, right and center.
55:43I mean, and this guy, this guy at eight, nine might take two.
55:47In fact, he's probably steaming. He probably would have liked to have gotten Brock Purdy here.
55:53Are you are you taking Kittle a lot now?
55:56I'm taking him more often than I was based on you and the FSC guys telling me that the Achilles tear isn't
56:03as scary as my initial thought was. Yeah, yeah.
56:06It sounds sounds like Kittle is going to be back, which seems kind of crazy.
56:12I'm fine taking Worthy here if you want to.
56:15We want to take Worthy or do we want to take Stafford?
56:19Um. Up to you. We're going to take we're going to take Stafford.
56:23OK. Yeah, that that combo is just for for this specific game.
56:27Are there are there any two players who are more correlated in fantasy football than Stafford and Puka?
56:34It might it might be literally a number one correlation.
56:37Do you want to guess what Stafford finished as points per game wise in twenty twenty four?
56:43It was horrible. I think it was quarter. I think it was quarterback.
56:47Thirteen. Quarterback. Six. Yeah. Yeah. It's insane. I mean, you know, the the year that.
56:53Cup one offensive player of the year. I believe Stafford did not finish as a top ten quarterback.
56:59I forgot that. I forgot the exact stat, but I believe it was that he literally did not finish as a top ten quarterback when his guy finished.
57:09Yeah, I have Kyler ranked ahead of Stafford. Like I'm at five percent Stafford.
57:13I want to be underweight this year. I mean, I got almost certainly I'm underweight on Stafford.
57:19But I literally only ever take him in in this slot because you don't want to you don't want to backstack him.
57:27I don't take much Devontae Adams at all. Let me let me check that.
57:32Yeah, because I think he was. Yeah, 44 percent of Stafford.
57:35He was great in fantasy last year. He finished the QB three.
57:40But these guys that aren't going to run the ball at all.
57:44What it literally what it took for him to be a top fantasy option was him being the number one guy in
57:51the NFL with passing guards and passing touchdowns. It took the it took Sean McVay completely reinventing offensive formations at the NFL level.
57:59And and also something that I think will still probably be a part of the offense, which is spamming one yard touchdowns.
58:07My my guess is that will they'll run that back the one yard touchdowns to Devontae Adams or Terrence Ferguson.
58:14Can you give me your take on neighbors? I I'm drafting a lot of him right now, particularly in the time box
58:21contest, maybe a little bit less aggro. But you can you can kind of find a quote that supports whatever you want.
58:29Like you can find a quote that supports. Oh, this dude's like going to be awful all year.
58:35He's going to be back in week six. You can find the GM saying, oh, yeah, you know, we think he's good to go.
58:43Like you can kind of find whatever to me.
58:47It's as simple as if you get the top 15th percentile outcome on him.
58:51You got a first round pick and at the three, four turn, you know, you got the same as Justin Jefferson in round three.
59:00What's interesting in my mind, too, is like people in basketball tournaments will maybe correctly identify like, hey, week 17 upside is the only thing that matters.
59:09Right. Right. Week 17. That's all you want. And then they'll look at a player like neighbors as an example and be
59:17scared off of him not playing the first four weeks.
59:20When at the same time, all they'll talk about is week 17 bringbacks and needing to have your in-game correlation for that
59:28one final week where it's like, hey, where are we ranking Malik neighbors in our week 17 fantasy football rankings?
59:35Very high. Top top top 10 line receiver. Would you like to take Rashad White?
59:40Yeah. White's my highest rank. Hey, I get it.
59:43My friend Jacob Sanderson has 42 percent of Rashad White in best ball mania right now, which feels about 32 percent too high.
59:51But sometimes sometimes you got to attack on mispricing.
59:54I mean, yeah, if you whiff on Rashad White being that expensive, what's the worst case scenario?
60:00That he's like the seven and a half points per game guy that he was for the Buccaneers last year.
60:07And he wasted like 117. Yeah. You know? Yeah.
60:10Hey, they're basically all the Buck players right here.
60:13We're to that part of the draft. I real quick.
60:16Who are we going to take? I'm down for Ja'Cory Krosky-Marra.
60:20This is something that I think is super interesting.
60:23I've obviously have won the big dog before. Let's take JCM, please.
60:27But I've come pretty damn close to winning it multiple times.
60:31And one of the times that... Okay, so this is a story.
60:35The year that I won the big dog, the year before, I had Jamar Chase his rookie season in which, remember, Chase
60:43week 17 had like 55 points or whatever it would have been.
60:47It would have been what I needed to win the big dog, which had like a 10-team final.
60:53No team with Chase in 21 or 20, whenever it was.
60:57I had a two-tight-in build with Travis Kelsey and another tight-in that was out for the season.
61:03I needed four points from Kelsey to make the final and then win the big dog.
61:09But Kelsey got popped on the COVID list week 16 and it was like a game-time decision.
61:14Oh, the COVID list. I don't know if he was going to play.
61:19But that team, I had it built out where it was like a very similar build like this.
61:25I think it was the two Bucks running backs at the time.
61:29Where it's like, hey, both RBs going in rounds 10 and 11.
61:33Take both of them. And it's a very cheap investment to just guarantee yourself usable weeks in best ball.
61:40Maybe your ceiling is a little bit capped if you don't really believe in the talent for either guy.
61:46But at running backs specifically, just getting the usable weeks on a team in which we've waited this long, I think is a pretty good thing.
61:55No, I completely agree. I think that for the cheap backfields, I think it's a pretty underrated strategy.
62:02Like taking Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. And when Chuba Hubbard was a ninth round pick and Jonathan Brooks was a 13th
62:09round pick, I think you could get away with that.
62:13I think you could do Warren and Dowdle this year.
62:16I don't think it's that bad. I agree with you.
62:20I mean, it's not impossible that there's a scenario where they both get there in the same week.
62:26Like, I mean, Barkley and Bigsby had this happen last year.
62:30Like sometime when you're just steamrolling the opposition. I don't really think it's that bad at all.
62:36Yeah, like I almost think it's a fine idea on a team that we take the two top wide receivers and take Bowers.
62:43You go like, hey, we just kind of need a floor at running back.
62:48And taking Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, 10 and 11.
62:51Rashad White, Ja'Cory Kreske, 10 and 11. Yeah. All right.
62:55We have a 2-4-4-1. We're definitely in the quarterback window here if we wanted to take a third that didn't suck.
63:02We don't have any stacks available, right? Yeah, we got nothing.
63:06It would be Cam Ward backstacks or Stroud backstacks.
63:09I mean, this is a gross range. What do you want to do?
63:13I have no preference. Let's do Cam Ward because we can do Helm later.
63:18We can do Ridley later. We can do Tajay Spears later.
63:22And I don't know. There's like some small chance that Cam Ward breaks out.
63:27I mean, he was the number one overall pick not that long ago.
63:31There are definitely believers in the Ball Knows community in Cam Ward.
63:36Yeah, I posted the Vegas projections on the site for this upcoming year with implied team totals.
63:41Last year, the Titans averaged 16.7 points per game.
63:45This year, they project at 20.3. So sportsbooks have the Titans as the second most improved offense year over year.
63:51Can we take Woody Marks? Yes. Yes, we can.
63:55So they have them as the second most improved offense year over year.
63:59Only behind the Raiders. It's pretty interesting that the improvements are already reflected in the lines.
64:05I would think the Titans would not be getting any respect.
64:08I would guess they were viewed as similarly bad.
64:11To be fair, they're still supposed to be a bad offense.
64:15The only offenses that project out worse than them are Cleveland, Arizona, Miami, the Jets, the Raiders, the Panthers.
64:22So they're still near the bottom, but supposed to be much better than at least they were last year.
64:28Or last year, they were the second worst offense in the league, only ahead of the Browns.
64:34I'm sorry, third ahead of the Browns and Raiders.
64:37Oh man, the Raiders being so bad last year.
64:40Such a, such a, I mean, in retrospect, very obvious that a Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly offense was not going to cut it in 2025.
64:49But I definitely sold myself that story. Well, yeah, and the Raiders do project to be the most improved offense year over year.
64:57Last year, they were at 14.2 points per game.
65:00This year, they project at 19.1. Yeah. Yeah. And hey, Clint Kubiak.
65:04I mean, I'm going to fall for that football again.
65:08I mean, I, I, I'm losing football again. The Raiders get the trifecta offensive line improvement, quarterback improvement, and coaching staff improvement.
65:15Right. Their offensive line. I was going to say, if their offensive line finds a way to be worse than last year,
65:23when it was literally Pete Carroll's Nepo baby children coaching the offensive line, it would be like absolutely spectacular degrees of failure.
65:31I don't, I don't really think it could be much worse.
65:34All right. So we are sitting at needing probably, well, definitely at least three more wide receivers, maybe four, because we can
65:42probably get away with two tight ends here. I mean, the, the tool is.
65:47We're definitely taking two tight ends. We need four receivers.
65:50Um, I mean, we need at least three possibly go with the six RB build, but we're slamming wide receivers now.
65:57Would you rather take Debo or stripling? Um, I'll take stripling.
66:01Yeah. I, I mean, do I like stripling? Not okay.
66:05Well, nevermind. Decision, decision got made for us. Flournoy, another guy where there's like, just like a lot of talk about Ryan Flournoy.
66:13I don't know how much I'm buying it, but the, the Cowboys beat writers are certainly making it seem like a thing.
66:20And I kind of have sour grapes because I don't really, I didn't really draft any of him and now he's expensive.
66:28All right. Let's take Debo. So now we have Puka, Devonta, Marv, QJ and Debo, which is fine.
66:34That's a fine room. Let me know. Like, why would you think, I'm not saying you're wrong at anything.
66:41I'm just saying, explain it to me. But why does it matter what the beat reporters are saying about Ryan Flournoy?
66:48If his role at, like his role is locked in, you know, like, I think it matters a lot if the beat
66:55reporters are coming out and saying like, Hey, Ja'Cory Crossy-Marv's the freaking dude.
67:00He looks like he's the starting running back in Washington.
67:03At that point, like I'm willing to adjust costs and adjust my rankings.
67:08But if it's them coming out and saying like, Hey, the guy we thought was going to be the wide receiver three, he looks good.
67:17It's like, okay, cool. He's though, does his role change at all?
67:21Uh, what do you want to, do you want to take Helm?
67:25Um, yeah, let's take Gunner Helm. So one of the reasons, I mean, I think with Flournoy in particular, the reason why
67:32I would have, I moved my rankings is because there is a shit ton of contingent value with him because we're Pickens or Lamb to miss any time.
67:42He would be like, he would have a, I mean, he would have a really, he did have a really nice role last year when Lamb was out.
67:52Uh, uh, Ryan Flournoy and Javante Williams, the first pair of Cowboys teammates to have a hundred yards rushing and receiving in
67:59the, in the same half of a game ever.
68:02Can I, let's pull this up real quick. Let me look at Ryan Flournoy with and without CeeDee Lamb.
68:09I was going to say it's, it's probably, I can't remember when his really good game was in a blowout if I remember correctly.
68:17So it might, it might've even been. Without CeeDee Lamb, he averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game as the wide receiver 42.
68:25Hey, how many, how many, how many targets per game?
68:285.67. That's pretty good at wide receiver 60, whatever.
68:31That's pretty good. I know. But I mean, if as best case scenario, Lamb, go.
68:37Hey, I'm not the one. I'm not the one pushing Flournoy up.
68:41I'm not, I'm not the, you were, you were, you were pointing, you were pointing at the wrong guy.
68:47I am not the Flournoy drafter. I'm, I'm the one.
68:51Uh, I am the one saying this is preposterous.
68:54And instead I'm pushing up Adonai Mitchell. Well, what's the thought process with Adonai Mitchell here?
68:59Best receiver on the team, buddy. You're wearing, you're wearing the Jets jersey.
69:04Um, can I say real quick, I think it was disaster class for us to take Cam Ward when we could have got Mendoza having Bowers.
69:13I completely forgot we took Bowers. You know, I'm kind of a, I'm kind of a two minds about the Mendoza Bowers thing.
69:21Oh, damn Ridley goes. All right. That's, that's kind of annoying where, cause one of the things you could argue is that maybe the best thing for Bowers.
69:31Uh, what do you, what are you thinking here?
69:34Any, any wide receiver? I would think I, one of the things that might end up being good for Bowers is cousins
69:41plays better than we think and holds on for the job.
69:45Longer than we think, in which case we'd be eating a lot of zeros on Mendoza.
69:51Cause we know, I mean, beyond a shadow of a doubt cousins can feed whoever the number one guy is.
69:57I mean, that is basically, that's been, that's been cousins, the job for a decade and he's really good at it.
70:05I know we talked about this earlier, but I mean, it is just such an extreme.
70:10If we're looking at number one, overall picks with how many games they start their rookie seasons.
70:16Like I, yeah, I mean, he's going to, he's Mendoza is going to start 14 games or whatever.
70:22I think that's probably true. Like give cam Ward, Kayla, Bryce young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Baker.
70:29What Baker sat out like four games to start his.
70:32Less, less even because he came in the middle of one game that, um, Tyrod got hurt in.
70:38Cause yeah, I remember going into that year. Everybody was talking that Baker was going to sit, um, super long time.
70:45Then we had golf 2016, like Jameis 2015. How far back do we have to go to see like a number one, Andrew luck, 2012 cam Newton 20.
70:55How far back do we have to go to see somebody that actually sat out a considerable amount of time their rookie season?
71:03I mean, number one, overall, you got to go back like 15 years.
71:08Jordan love sat my home sat, but I don't know if you can compare Jordan love and my homes.
71:14No, no, you, you can't, you can't. Um, yeah, it just like, also I can see Mendoza kind of just like not
71:22being that good of a fantasy quarterback, but Bauer's still easily getting there.
71:26Where it's like, there were, I mean, there are definitely paths where, I mean, Ward ran a lot at Washington state and
71:34an incarnate ward and then didn't at all for Miami.
71:37So if he adds a little bit of that, I, it's not great, but I wouldn't, I'm not, I'm not giving it disaster class there.
71:46There, there, there are more, there are bigger disaster classes out there.
71:50Like, I think, do you have to go back to Stafford in 2009 to see the last time a quarterback didn't like legit sat?
71:58Yeah. Uh, I think if we, if we go to what's that, what's that website you like?
72:04NFL draft history.com. That's what I'm literally on right now.
72:08I would say, I would say, I would say that's probably it.
72:12If I, for a number one overall pick. Yeah.
72:15I mean, even, even Josh Rosen played, I think Bradford that got shook loose from the other days.
72:21Whenever I did this in my live stream, um, last time I had a bunch of people in the comments going like they didn't have Kirk cousins.
72:30But in my mind, it's like Kirk cousins at this point of his career.
72:35Isn't any, I think you go back. He stinks.
72:38Exactly. You look at the narrative of these other round one guys with where they were selected.
72:44I'm, I'm down to go with the six running back here or an eighth receiver.
72:49I'm fine. I was thinking, I was thinking this team actually might make more sense for a six running back.
72:56Cause we doubled, cause we have the two Washington guys there.
73:00We got some, we got some week 17 correlation with, uh, with Marvin Harrison.
73:05I'm, I'm hip to that. I mean, Mike Washington, not a very, not a very good player, but a very athletic player.
73:13So sometimes I'm completely fine taking, I, and I'm an idiot when it comes to these rookies.
73:18I'm not going to pretend that I'm not. Um, but I'm completely fine taking black, Katron Allen, Mike Washington, Emmitt Johnson, Nicholas Singleton, and the final three rounds.
73:28For sure. Yeah. Like just because the opportunity cost is so low that if they do anything, which I mean, I think
73:36all these rookies, maybe the most likely outcome is they give you zeros, you know, but I think there is a world
73:43in which they can hit a high ceiling. I mean, Kalen, Kalen black in particular, I think is, I mean, he's, he was the third round pick.
73:53He was the third running back drafted in this class and is going under, I mean, what is the, what is the
74:00draft rate of Kalen black in best ball mania right now?
74:04According to our stuff, I'm going to guess it's like, he's like five and a half percent of teams.
74:11So I bet you retired in that 2.8%. So what that's less, that's less than 40% of teams have or less than 40% of drafts.
74:19He's drafted. I have 9.3% of him. Yeah. All right.
74:23This team was Purdy Stafford Ward, Scadaboo Swift, Rashad White, Corey Krosky Merritt, Woody Marks, Mike Washington, Puka Nakua, Devonta Smith, Marvin
74:30Harrison, QJ, Debo, Iuke, reuniting, reuniting Debo Samuel and Brandon Iuke with Brock Purdy, Ted Hurst, Brock Bowers and Gunner Helm.
74:37You know what? I bet that, that Bowers helm combo, that's got to, I bet I have so many of those.
74:45I, 22. 3.1% compared to 4%, I mean, 0.4 in the field.
74:49Hey, before I bounce, can I ask you a quick question about the world cup?
74:54Yes. Yes, you can. You're the only person I know that I'd be able to ask this to.
75:00How is like the hype in your world in comparison to what maybe you thought it was going to be coming in?
75:08Because I thought it was going to be like nothing, but it seems way bigger than like in the fantasy football world
75:15than I thought it was going to be. Like people in my live stream, they're talking about it.
75:22It's because once the thing starts to happen, you can't like it's, it's on all the time.
75:28So that's, that's big, right? That it's just literally on every day.
75:32The other thing is, is not only are the U S winning, like they're already, like they're already qualified to the next round, but they look great.
75:41Yeah. I mean, I've been watching the U S games and excited about that, but like these like random two countries I've never heard of playing.
75:50People will be talking about it in my chat.
75:53Yes. No, like people like last night, uh, New Zealand played and people like ever, like everyone in my discord was like watching the New Zealand game.
76:02And I'm like, I love soccer. So it's great.
76:06It's great for me. I've enjoyed it. But yeah, no, before it started same vibes as you, it's like, I don't know
76:13how big this is going to be, but yeah, people are seeming to be super into it.
76:19Yeah. And then whenever I open up underdog, it'd be like 95,000 picks have been made on this game tonight of like,
76:27again, of two countries I've never heard of. Yeah.
76:30Uh, yeah, it's been, it's been great. Uh, what time are you going live tonight?
76:35Um, I don't know, chief, maybe sometime tonight. We'll see.
76:38Sometime tonight you go, you're, you're doing, uh, I've, I've, I've been meaning to ask you this too.
76:45Uh, what are you changed the thumbnail for the lives there?
76:48They're now, they're now very distinct from, from the edited videos.
76:52Yeah. It's just ripping a screenshot of me in it.
76:56Cause again, I think like specifically live streams, nobody's finding you new from a live stream.
77:01You know what I mean? Um, I think that you just kind of want to show people exactly what they're clicking into.
77:09I mean, I talked about this on Pete's. I don't know how much of it got cut out.
77:15I don't remember. I talked about it in depth on Pete's video about like the people that were making a video or
77:23making a live stream or something that I judged.
77:26It's like what YouTube wants in a thumbnail and a title is users know what they're clicking into.
77:32You know, I made a reference like when I was telling Pete about it, cause they like the people I was judging
77:39put like, we stole a hundred thousand dollars of Pete's money to draft this team or whatever, and put Pete on the thumbnails.
77:47Like Pete's not in the video. So there's no, there's obviously nobody believes you took a hundred thousand dollars from them, you know?
77:55Um, so I want for when anybody clicks into any of my stuff for them to know the kind of exactly what they're exactly what they're getting.
78:05Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And the reason like, um, I don't know, but, but just like kind of titling it people who are
78:12going to the live streams at night, they know what they're, they know what an underdog draft is.
78:18You know, I don't have to tell them like drafting in best ball mania or blah, blah, blah.
78:25Um, they get it. Yeah. You know what I, so I had been aping into your strategy of just like fantasy football drafts or whatever.
78:33And it's, it's, I don't know if the correlation is because you've been on the stream some or whatever it has been,
78:41but my like year over year new viewers is much higher.
78:45Oh, for sure. I definitely noticed like if you compare your streams to like other best ball streams, you're growing more than,
78:52yeah, I don't want to, I don't want to say you're going more than anybody in the best ball space, but looking
79:00really good in comparison to, um, past. But I, I, but the thing is, is that I don't know if that is
79:07the, the flock bump or, or if it's literally just a change.
79:12I think it's probably a combo, you know, I think this, this also sounds dumb, but I think just having you on
79:19the site and like anybody, all the users on the side, every time they go to a player profile and they see
79:27Davis Maddox head on it, you know? No, for sure.
79:30I think that's definitely big, but like, just as an example of like, whenever we do our next draft on my channel,
79:38which again, I message you, I need you July 3rd.
79:41If you're cool for that, I'm going to be in, I'm going to be in Ontario.
79:47So I'm not going to be able to, Oh, you need, you need someone to drive.
79:52Exactly. So you're going to be in charge. Um, but like what I'll do is I'm going to rip a screenshot of us in the draft.
80:01Like, so exactly like how I have been doing my previous one draft board.
80:06And then a little photo of me, I'm do draft board, two photos of us.
80:11Like exactly how it looks. I'm going to just put two idiots drafting, you know, or two idiots drafting a team, something
80:19like that, you know, where it like peaks some interest.
80:22It's short. People know what they're clicking. Um, cause again, I, I, the last thing I think you should do on YouTube
80:30is like, I think the, the people that stream basketball stuff and go on like, I'm going to win $2 million with this team.
80:38Yeah. Like people who watch videos too narrow. People who watch videos are smart.
80:43You know what I mean? Like every people watching this live stream, they're smart.
80:48They're not going to go like dirt. Hey, um, a $2 million draft.
80:52What? You know, like they're intelligent enough to know, like a hundred percent.
80:57No, it's, it's, it's, it's so, it's so true.
81:00You know, you're like, um, if you, if you cater to the lowest common denominator, you will, you will get what you get with that.
81:09And, and yeah, in general, like people, people on YouTube are smart, you know?
81:13So like, I think you got to give them, especially, especially these days with TikTok and short form video.
81:20Like if you're choosing to watch a long form video, I asked in my live stream yesterday, like, Hey, what year were y'all born in?
81:29Cause somebody said they were born in like 2003.
81:32I was like, dear God, you're young. And the vast majority of people were 1982, 1985, 1979, 1991.
81:38You know, like I had maybe like 3% or 4% say they were born in the year 2000 or after, you know,
81:46the people that are watching, they're grown ass men.
81:49They're smart. You know, you can't really bamboozle them into a video.
81:53You got to let them know like, Hey, this is what it is.
81:57You want to watch it or not? Yes, exactly.
82:00Yeah. I think, I think that is the packaging just has to be very clear.
82:06Yeah. All right, man. Appreciate it. Have a good day.
82:09All right. See ya. All right, everyone. Mason's out of here.
82:13We are going to do at least one. Well, actually maybe, maybe I won't, man.
82:18What's the, the next game is France. France, Iraq is on when France, Iraq is on in 47 minutes.
82:25How many, how many likes do you guys have on this video?
82:29There are 54 likes on this video. That's not cutting it.
82:33I'm not, I'm not doing, I'm not doing another draft unless you guys get to a hundred.
82:38Come on, dude. I can go watch, I can go watch Michael Elise bang one in right now against, uh, against Iraq.
82:46So if we get, if we get some more likes, there's a new, there's a couple new tournaments out, right?
82:53So we, the mastiff is out. The puppy two is about full.
82:57The poodle is out. Did the Frenchie sprint. Okay.
83:00And the Frenchie sprint is already almost full. Wow.
83:03150 max. Oh, okay. An hour 47. All right.
83:06So we, we definitely have time then. Uh, if, if MBF, MBF is crack.
83:11Okay. So we definitely have time. So you guys can, can generate, um, a reasonable amount of likes then we should at
83:19least be able to get to a hundred. There are, there are 275 of you guys watching right now.
83:25So we should be able to get to there.
83:28I don't have to make any of my slow draft picks for five more hours.
83:34Uh, should I make a pick right now? Who's my, this is a field general.
83:39Uh, I need a running back on this team.
83:42All right. We're going to take Sean Tucker. There you go.
83:46Daniel just got here to hit the like button.
83:49Yeah. Come on, dude. Come on. You guys, you guys want Daniel to drive home in silence.
83:55Come on, man. All right. Here's what we'll do.
83:58We will cook up a little pick them. Cause I have a, actually, I don't even need a boost.
84:04Cause this one is just going to hit. We're going to cook up a little pick them.
84:10And then we are going to go to, we're going to do goal plus assist for Michael Alise.
84:16We are going to go shots attempted for Riyad Mahrez.
84:20Can I get a Riyad Mahrez shot attempt? There we go.
84:24Two and a half. And then can I get a Julian Ryerson line?
84:28Julian Ryerson has what available? Goals plus assists. Um, yeah, we're going to do, we're going to do goals plus assists for Julian Ryerson.
84:37I'm going to toss 10 bucks. Nope. 12 bucks on that.
84:40There you go. Here's a little sweat. Here's a little sweat.
84:44Ooh, a fellow, a fellow deadhead. I don't know about fellow dead.
84:48I, a big, big fan. All right. How many likes do you guys have?
84:53I'm refreshing right now. We've got 92. All right.
84:56We'll call it. We'll call it good. We'll call it good at, uh, we'll call it good at 92.
85:03There you go. Elise a goal plus assist. Mahrez two and a half shots.
85:08Ryerson, a goal or an assist. And, uh, you know, there's a new contest out.
85:1320 entry max for how much per pop? $7 per pop.
85:17Two of 12, one of six, one of five, and a 310 person final.
85:21Let's go find ourselves a shipper right here. Uh, you know what?
85:26And let's go also. Let me click the sync button on the flock fantasy tool because I have not synced my drafts.
85:33I don't know. I didn't know my letter grade on the last one.
85:38All right. We are live. We are drafting out of the three hole here.
85:42We are drafting with Bowen Arrows, Marino 13, J309, Party Moose, Nata Baller, Dab K, Goalie 1992, My Guy Michael Hodson, Woo
85:50Doggy 15, Monster Hits Only, and JSN 0D. So I guess we will be starting our team with Jamar Chase.
85:57Fine by me, 6.8% of Jamar Chase. I have a vintage Grateful Dead t-shirt collection.
86:02I would love that because I love vintage clothing.
86:05Uh, I love, I love t-shirts in general. I, I have, I have way too many t-shirts.
86:11That's a, that's a, let me tell you guys, that's a tough thing about becoming an old man is you, you realize
86:19that, um, you need to have clothing items that are not t-shirts and that are not jeans, uh, or shorts.
86:26I mean, I, I just have gym shorts on every day of my life.
86:30So I've had to grow up out of that phase a little bit.
86:35All right. Jamar Chase, welcome to the team. Nice little start there.
86:39I wonder what my combo ownership of, so I have how many Jamar Chase teams?
86:44I have 711 total teams. Jamar Chase is on 49 of them.
86:48I wonder my combos with him are 20% of my Jamar Chase teams have Joe Burrow.
86:5427% of the teams in our database and in our projection have them.
86:58So I'm actually a little, I'm, I'm basically double below weight on that combo on the first day.
87:05I love t-shirts. Uh, I do all DK basically just watch for the vibes.
87:09Well, Hey, first off, I appreciate you. Second off.
87:13I mean, I think there are plenty of things that cross platform makes sense between DraftKings and underdog.
87:19And then there will be another DraftKings best ball week coming back on the channel.
87:24Um, it's going to be the week. It's going to be, I believe July 21st.
87:29Cause it's going to be the week after I get back from my vacation.
87:34Uh, the flock tool with promo code Davis is a good question, Brad.
87:38So there, I, I have lied about this on stream before.
87:42Cause I didn't know, but the, the combo package that gets the best ball.
87:47Add on is $147 annually with code Davis, but you don't just get the best ball stuff.
87:53You get everything on the site. So if you go to flock fantasy.com, you get the, my team manager, you get all the best ball stuff.
88:02You get rankings for dynasty super flex one quarterback, 2026 super flex regular 2026 rookie rankings.
88:07You get a voucher bundle. So you can ask, you can get a team review trade question starts it.
88:14You can get a best ball portfolio review. Uh, we have a trade calculator.
88:19We've got a mock drafting tool. We have the player comparison tool to predict tab, which honestly I should probably pull up
88:26more often, but is a, is pretty cool. We have, um, three different prospect models on the site as well.
88:33I mean, I would say $147 annually for all that stuff is, let's say it's adequate market value.
88:40What's the parlay for France. I like Michael Alise to score a goal in, in whatever, uh, parlance you would like this guy packs.
88:48I think, I think you're right. MBF. I believe that is the first time I've seen the combination of Jefferson, St.
88:55Brown and lamb all go ahead. Native baller got the Maddox start of Justin Jefferson and Kenneth Walker there.
89:02And do I want to take his Bauer Bauer's chase has to feel kind of unique, right?
89:08Uh, all right. Well, he goes, AJ Brown has got to be kind of unique there.
89:13Nope. 12%. I have, well, I mean 12%, whatever.
89:16All right, let's do it. Chase and AJ Brown.
89:19That gives me may or burrow over there. That feels, that feels fine.
89:24All right. Now Mason isn't here. So I could take Brees Hall with this pick and I would feel okay about it.
89:31I, I don't, I don't really mind taking Brees Hall here.
89:35Actually, I I'm probably, I'm not probably, I am.
89:38I'm certain that I am higher, uh, on Brees than Mason is.
89:42Wow. Neighbors goes here. That's very interesting. All right.
89:46Yeah. You know what? I am going to take, I'm going to take Brees Hall here.
89:51So we have Chase, AJ Brown and Brees. Cost of flock to with promo code Davis, $147.
89:57Having info to win all your leagues priceless. I should, uh, I should pay, I should pay you.
90:03I should pay you the marketing box, Daniel. I mean, I do, I, I, I do legitimately believe that.
90:10Cause basically what it is, is the cost of the annual stuff on the flock site is $99 for like redraft and dynasty and stuff.
90:18And then, so the add on is only $47, which feels pretty reasonable for best ball tools these days.
90:25I, I think he's, I think, I do think that Mason is probably correct about these whole range of running backs feeling very similar.
90:33Like Brees does not profile that much differently than Javante Williams or, or Scadaboo.
90:38Honestly. Um, I, I think they are relatively similar guys.
90:41Yeah. I, I don't, I don't think, I don't think that's insane.
90:46The deal with Brees is his outcomes. I think are rather asymmetric because Brees could benefit greatly from a competent offense.
90:53Like I've said that one of the, I've said that one of the big things for me this season would be knowing
91:00how many games that Geno Smith starts for the New York jets.
91:05Like if you knew that Geno Smith was starting 17 games for the New York jets, you would be higher on Garrett Wilson.
91:13You would be higher on Omar Cooper. You'd be higher on Sadiq.
91:17You'd be higher on Brees Hall. You'd probably even be higher on Braylon Allen just because it means the team is competent.
91:24It means that the overall team is probably going to be performing above their, above their baseline.
91:30And Brees is also a talent bet and the talent stuff on Brees has been pretty good basically for the entirety of, of Brees Hall's career.
91:39Like if we look at, I mean, his juke rates have always been quite good.
91:44He's earned targets in the passing game, you know, above six yards per target as for above six yards per target as
91:52a running back is quite good above four and a half yards per carry for his jets career.
91:58Like the guy has been very talented. Yes. There, there was, there is a Geno Smith video going around of him.
92:05Like his, his something like the mother of his kid is like yelling at him saying she hit him.
92:12I did see an amendment to that, which is that the police went out to Geno Smith's house and they left.
92:19They said that, you know, this is a, this is, this does not require the intervention of the police wherever Geno Smith is living right now.
92:28And that there, there were no charges filed. So I, it doesn't seem like anything really is going to happen with Geno
92:36right now, but I don't know, maybe, maybe a time to be drafting Cade, Cade club Nick in whatever in, in the field general.
92:44So this is a tricky spot often in drafts where I I'm going to take Jalen Waddle, who is the one I
92:52have the most exposure to here, because I don't really care which one of these running backs I get.
92:58And I think there's a pretty big tear break after Waddle, JMO and Mike Evans.
93:03But if I get any of David Montgomery, Trevon Henderson, Bucky Irving, Quinshawn Judkins, Byshell Tootin, I mean, there's just a huge wall of running backs there.
93:13All of whom, all of whom I like. I don't, I don't actually, I don't dislike any of these guys.
93:20If there were, if there were a way that I could guarantee myself being above market on all these guys, I probably would.
93:28But I mean, Tootin clearly is my favorite of that group.
93:31Looking like we're going to get a little bit of falling ADP value here on Jamison Williams.
93:37I probably just take Tootin here because that's who I have ranked the highest.
93:42Maybe I should balance it out a little bit more.
93:45You know what? This is a pretty fire start.
93:49So let's just take David Montgomery and let's just not mess with it.
93:53David Montgomery, very good pick. Do I like Mr.
93:56Brad start in the seven slot? Brad did St.
93:59Brown, London, ETN Jacobs. Yeah, I do. I do quite like that start.
94:04I think the, I think the starts, honestly, that I end up feeling the best about in general this year are two
94:11running backs, two wide receivers through four rounds. And it doesn't really matter which order you do them in.
94:18I think you can do St. Brown, London, ETN Jacobs, or what Michael did in the nine slot, Taylor, HN, Flowers, Burden.
94:26I think both of those, you know, you take either one.
94:29I mean, Native Baller did the same thing. He did Jefferson, then Walker, then Rice, then Scadaboo.
94:35Those starts to me just feel so good. You build in a floor at the running back position.
94:41You build in a little bit of ceiling at the wide receiver position.
94:46The easiest way to do it is with wide receivers first.
94:50Because I do think Mason is making a great point.
94:53And I think this is a nice, I really enjoy being able to do the streams with Mason and with Coop.
95:00And then also, you know, doing all the shows with Jacob and Corain, you know, and Neil and kind of knowing what
95:08is going on there with the sidekick. Because I get to sort of feel out what the Sims are doing.
95:15I sort of get to feel out what, like, the, what would be the, like, kind of the historical data guys are doing.
95:23Know what the vibes-based guys are doing. I mean, I just find it all very interesting.
95:28And I, I really liked Mason points, Mason's point about the research that Hayden has done, which is you, it's tough to
95:36be too far behind at wide receiver. You can, you can get very far behind a wide receiver and you can try
95:44and make up with it in numbers. But obviously, you know, there's, there's no, there's no guarantee there.
95:50You know, having, having nine wide receivers is nice.
95:53And I, I really like the, oh, I mean, I, I really, really like the, the sort of the way that Corain
96:00has explained it to me and the way that sacrilegious and shady have talked about it, wherein, you know, a lot of
96:08times there are many scenarios that your best ball season might hinge on Taequann Thornton getting you nine fantasy points.
96:15Actually, mate and Mason just explained that in its own way, which is like had Travis Kelsey, not miss that game with COVID and gotten four points.
96:24And, and you give yourself more outs by adding up numbers at that position, right?
96:29I mean, that is just certainly true. Uh, wow.
96:33Okay. Well, I'm locked into an elite quarterback here.
96:36I'd rather have Burrow with chase than I would may with Brown, but if may comes back around, I'm going to take
96:43him at 75 and actually double up on those.
96:46Uh, doesn't the majority of wide receiver data Mason uses come from the pre 22 version of the NFL?
96:53No, no. The data that Mason is using, and that is in this tool.
96:58And that is in, um, that is just on, on flock fantasy in general is all up to date with every, well,
97:05really every pick that has ever been made in best ball mania, including 2024, including 2025, 2023.
97:11So it's this, this overlay tool that I'm using, this flock fantasy tool has every pick that has ever been made in
97:19best ball mania, factoring into the advanced rates and to the uniqueness stuff.
97:23All right. So may goes, so we're not able to do that, which is unfortunate.
97:29You know what? I've been noticing Caleb Williams fall more often in this range.
97:33We are going to take Ramondre Stevenson here, double up on the Patriots.
97:38So we've got Burrow, Brees, Montgomery, Ramondre, Jamar chase, AJ Brown, and Jalen Waddle.
97:43We're true break even, uh, on 734,000 sample size of teams between two and three quarterbacks best advance rate available for us
97:50is going to be 22% at five running backs.
97:53Seven wide receivers is optimal and almost certainly going to be yeah.
97:5818% with three tight ends, which is right about what I figured it would be.
98:03It is true. I mean, don't get me wrong.
98:06It is true that wide receiver scoring in 2021 and 2022 were way down.
98:11I mean, the 2020 season was the, uh, the super happy fun ball era of the NFL.
98:17Now, uh, a lot of you are probably probably were not playing fantasy football back in 2011.
98:222011 was the crazy. I mean, this was the, this was the all time season, um, in fantasy football.
98:29If you, if you didn't get to play 2011 fantasy football, I feel kind of bad for you.
98:35We had three different 5,000 yard passers, uh, in 16 games.
98:39We had just in terms of where's yards per game.
98:42So we had five different quarterbacks over 300 yards per game.
98:46We had, uh, you know, Matt Ryan for 4,100 yards, 29 touchdowns, like just absurd stuff, uh, was happening.
98:53And the receiving was similarly ridiculous. Look at all these thousand yard wide receivers.
98:58There were 19 different thousand yard wide receivers. Uh, we had all these guys with over 80 receptions.
99:04Like this, this Hakeem Knicks season was crazy. And he had the 19th most receptions in, in football.
99:10I mean, it was, it was a truly, truly insane time to be playing fantasy football.
99:16Yeah. What are, what are you guys doing in this situation?
99:19My guy, Michael just took Caleb Williams at 81.
99:22One, I mean, he already had, well, actually I was going to say, this is, this is an easy decision he made.
99:30Cause he already had Lamar, which maybe would have made it difficult, but he also had burden.
99:36The, the trickier, the trickier situation in fantasy football and in best ball these days is when Caleb Williams is a big faller in one of your drafts.
99:46And you don't have Luther burden. You don't have room.
99:49And don't, you don't have Roma doing say you don't have Colson Loveland.
99:54Those are, those are much trickier spots. I, I've probably done it maybe like three times total where I've taken Caleb Williams without anyone else on the team.
100:03Like without any other bear. Yeah, we did. We did have a lot more future MVP quarterbacks than we do now.
100:10That's very true. I mean, the, the quarterback play was really something else back then, but man, I, I do.
100:17I certainly do miss that version of the NFL.
100:20All right. Purdy is still on the board. So kind of, you know what we're going to take.
100:27I'm actually going to take Gainwell who I have like basically none of I'm going to be buying.
100:33I'm going to be buying the top arena here on Gainwell at pick 94.
100:38What do you guys think about that? Is that terrible to buy, to buy the top on Gainwell?
100:44I mean, that's where, that's where I have Gainwell ranked and I feel that I have him ranked appropriately.
100:51I guess I should have just played the ADP game there a little bit.
100:55That's going to, it's going to hurt my, it's going to hurt my flock letter grade, but I don't really care which
101:03one of these quarterbacks gets to me. These wide receivers are kind of like a flat tier as well.
101:10In terms of quarterbacks, I've got Mayfield with Gainwell.
101:13I've got Knicks. I've got Stroud that I can do with David Montgomery.
101:17I did take, and I'm probably only going to take two.
101:21So I actually think I'm going to push quarterback more here.
101:25This, this feels like a push quarterback draft. So I'm going to take Michael Pittman Jr.
101:30Who is my highest ranked wide receiver. This is going to be a three tight end team anyway.
101:36So that now brings us to, I mean, this is, this is going to be, I think this is going to be a pretty good team.
101:45A plus on advancement, B plus on ADP score.
101:49C minus on uniqueness. All right. All right. Well, I guess uniqueness is the part I don't care about as much there.
101:56The answer is to take a falling Caleb and backstack with Zabion Thomas.
102:01My, my guy, my guy might be, uh, my guy might be a ball knower there.
102:06All right. And then I can take, I guess I can take Gesicki later.
102:11I can take Pirine later if I want. I think both of those make some sense.
102:16Are you, are you guys taking Pirine? I've noticed that a fair amount of places have Pirine ranked as a, like a very draftable guy.
102:25What is monster hits doing over there? He might, he might be auto-drafting.
102:30Gentie Mc, no, I don't think he's auto-drafting. He's just vibing brother.
102:34Monster hits is just vibing. Rashad white, Justin Herbert, Jordan Addison, Marv, Jadarian price, Tet, Ibuka, McBride and Gent.
102:40McBride and Gentie. I mean, let's, let's check that combo.
102:44That's gotta be like, that's gotta be like none.
102:47Gentie and McBride are estimated to be on, I'm going to guess less.
102:51I mean, definitely less than 1%, maybe less than 0.1%, 0.2% of rosters.
102:56I have Gentie and McBride only 6 of 711 teams.
102:59So very, very hard combination to get Gentie and McBride.
103:03And obviously you're getting leverage on Bowers there. And Gentie, Gentie's outcomes are probably improved in a game without Bowers, I would imagine.
103:11Pirine feels like he has too much of a chance to go to 0.
103:16Feels like he's probably just gonna be the, um, just feels like he's probably gonna be the third down back on a team that passes a ton.
103:25I don't, I don't really think that's that. I don't think Pirine is bad.
103:30What I tell you, it's just not, there's no sex appeal there in any way, shape or form.
103:36Um, dang. Okay. So missed out on all the second tier of quarterbacks.
103:40You know, this could maybe be a spot to get someone I literally never draft any of, which would be Romeo Dubs.
103:48Corrine was talking about him on best ball. Kind of like a, a Patriot stack without May type thing.
103:55All right. Romeo Dubs, come on down. Come on down, brother.
103:58Join, join the squad. I'm here because I like blindly drafting every player Davis does and apparently lose money.
104:05No other reason to tune in. I agree. All, all auditors can kick rocks.
104:10Yeah. D Mercado maybe is a D Mercado is maybe a good pick.
104:14I, I don't know. I mean, Emmett Johnson could win that third down job for Kansas city.
104:20Uh, I would say I, I have a low degree of confidence either direction there.
104:25Um, so shuck doesn't, Oh man, Willis and Willis and Burrow have conflicting buys.
104:30So do I do the shuck stir thing? Where am I at with quarterbacks here?
104:35All right. We're going to try and push it.
104:38We're going to take Mark Andrews as our tight end for the week 17 correlation.
104:44It's going to be a three tight end team and we are going to push it at quarterback, which is not something
104:51I attempt to do all that often. Is this where Iook moves if he has moved to the commander?
104:58So this is, this is my guess. My guess is that he ends up probably a smidgen higher.
105:04He probably go, well, no, I think you're right.
105:07Actually, I think we'll see him go. His ADP will settle above Romeo dubs and Wandale, but he will not.
105:14I don't think he will get into the one hundreds.
105:17Brandon. Iook, uh, feels like there's multiple potentially generational wealth spots this year.
105:22Yeah. You just have to embrace the risk. You got to embrace the risk with rice.
105:27You got to embrace the risk with neighbors, with Jacobs, with Kittle, with my homes.
105:33I completely agree. Uh, for draft Kings. I just use the flock tool, brother.
105:37That's the, it's the only draft tool. Your boy is using this year.
105:42Flock fantasy overlay promo code. Davis is my, my draft tool of choice.
105:46Taking P Ryan is like saying hello to your unattractive six year old in law and she pinches your butt.
105:53Could be fun, but probably shouldn't. I think he's better than that.
105:57I think he's better than that. I think P Ryan was a little bit better than you guys are giving him credit for last year.
106:06Samaj P Ryan. Last year. He had what? He had games of 17 of 12 of eight of eight.
106:13He got hurt for a little bit in here.
106:16I mean, it's, he wasn't great. He existed. Samaj, Samaj P Ryan, uh, existed.
106:21You know, he's, he's out there. All right. Now I could take Stroud.
106:25I could take Ward. I could take dimes. I guess.
106:29Ward has backstacks. Stroud has backstacks. And I probably have the least.
106:33I mean, I, I'm going to guess I have very little Mark Schultz.
106:37Adele. I have a fair few of. Yeah. Really nothing there.
106:41Am I missing out? I'm not really missing out on any wide receiver.
106:45That I like here. All right. We are going to take CJ shroud who correlates with David Montgomery.
106:52What about Taj Brooks? He was great in college.
106:55I don't know if he was great in college.
106:58He didn't, he didn't play very much. And I don't think he projects to play.
107:03Much more this upcoming year, but I could be wrong.
107:07I mean, assuming he makes the team, but we've seen the Bengals do this.
107:11They did this with guys. They did this with Trevion Williams.
107:15There was a guy before Trevion Williams and a guy before Chase Brown, who also hung around on the team forever and never got the ball.
107:24I couldn't, I can't think of his name right now.
107:28So if anyone can remember that guy, probably not going to take Woody Marks.
107:32Probably not. I guess I could take Shahid. I don't really like Shahid.
107:37Let's actually, let's actually take Jonah Coleman, which correlates with our, oh no, no, that's fine.
107:42That's fine. Which correlates with our Patriots stuff and with our Denver stuff setting up, you know, just an all the, it's
107:50going to be an all time barn burner. The week 17 game between the Patriots and the Broncos.
107:56Yes. If I, if I heard some positive reports on Taj Brooks, if I heard the, oh, Taj Brooks is, is playing on passing downs.
108:05The team feels good about Taj Brooks. Like if I heard any of those things about Taj Brooks.
108:11Sure. I know Shahid, Shahid was, he was my guy last year.
108:15A big, big fan of Shahid last year. I think he's in a terrible situation for himself for fantasy football.
108:22The Seahawks are not going to pass. Like they're definitely going to be negative P R O E.
108:28Right. I mean, I think we, I think we certainly know that.
108:32And they're going to have a guy who basically leads the NFL in targets per route run and in target share in one, Mr.
108:41Jackson Smith and Jigba. They're going to play a lot of 12, right?
108:45They're going to play a Royal and Barner together.
108:48And because they play those guys together, there's fewer snaps for Shahid.
108:53Like what, what did she, he'd max out at in terms of snaps last year.
108:58Or she'd she heed once he got traded to the Seahawks.
109:01I guess he played quite a bit or were these saints games.
109:06He played, he played a little bit more than I remember, but just did nothing for fantasy.
109:12I mean, I, I, she heed the player I think is great, but I am worried it is not a particularly good fantasy situation.
109:20If that makes sense. Like I, I, even, even for a, even for a skilled player, I am worried that.
109:27But, uh, and, and like I said, I, I think he is very skilled, but I mean, how many, how many pass
109:34attempts do we think you're going to be there?
109:37Wait, I'm, I'm on the clock. Um, well, let's take Dalton Schultz.
109:42So we've got that locked in and then 22%, five running backs.
109:46So I think we're just going to jam some wide receivers here and then definitely a third tight end.
109:52I don't think we need a third quarterback. I think we're, I think we're probably set there.
109:58Uh, I don't, I am not, I remember Cedric Pierman.
110:02Let's, let's see if I can remember right. 2023 Bengals depth chart.
110:06I bet, I bet we can, I bet we can figure this out.
110:10Cause there was another guy who hung around there forever and never played.
110:15Um, Chris Evans, Chris Evans. Yes. Thank you, Jake.
110:18I am thinking of Chris Evans. That is precisely who I was thinking of.
110:23I knew you'd have my back on that one.
110:26Um, wide receiver. Let's just, yeah, let's take tank Dell.
110:29What's what's what's why not? Why not take tank Dell at pick one 71 Chris Evans.
110:35What is my current sharps stance? Um, I'm out.
110:38I'm out on, on sharps. Yeah, I think you could, I think you could take him in like four or 12 or
110:45something, but I'm, I would say generally I am, I am out because I'm a, I am a Jadarian price drafter also.
110:53So if you're, if you're in on price, you can't also be in on Charbonnet.
110:58Like if you were drafting Jadarian price at his cost, you have to believe that Jadarian price can just win this.
111:05Uh, can you, that you just have to believe that it can just win.
111:10Does the flock tool have the ability to go back and rate last year's BBM winning team draft?
111:16Um, I, I'm sure that the capability would be there, but the way it's set up right now.
111:23No, no. I mean, I could, uh, I could, uh, I could ask if we could, um, if we could bring, if we could bring it back.
111:32Yes. You can definitely take Charbonnet the next time they bring back an 11 of 12.
111:38Why not? I, I mean, you, it's not the, it's not the worst to do this.
111:43I mean, we just have learned so much about best ball and going back and studying these like, and, and one of
111:51the things that we really have found is that basically the worst thing you can do for your advance rate, the worst
111:58thing you can do for your week 17 is just like having zeros is tough.
112:03Just made a nice futures bet on Japan winning the world cup.
112:08Uh, I mean, I don't think they can win the world cup.
112:12I don't think that they are physical enough. They're, they're very, very good.
112:16Technically. Um, it's just, it's so hard at the level that these guys play to be, to be consistently the smallest team on the, on the pitch.
112:26You know, it's just tough. Zeroes are technically earliest to make up in the early season.
112:31Yeah, but this dude might not be back until November.
112:35So that is, that is not the, that is not the early season.
112:39I, Japan had an assist the other night. That was the best assist I've ever seen.
112:45I've been watching, I've been watching soccer for a long time, like eight or nine years at this point, the first season
112:52that I followed soccer was the season that Luis Suarez transferred, uh, from Liverpool to Barcelona.
112:58So whenever, whatever that year was, I believe it was the, I think Chelsea won the league that year.
113:04And I, that might've been, it might've been the best assist I've ever seen in my life.
113:10It was completely unbelievable. All right. We are up.
113:13We have a two, five, six, two. We need multiple more wide receivers.
113:18We need one more tight end. Feels like we probably do.
113:21I have any correlation here. No correlation in the playoffs with Dulcich.
113:26Um, yeah, I'm just going to take Jerry Judy.
113:29Jerry Judy is the most boring, bland vegetable imaginable, but it's getting really hard, um, to not take him.
113:35What are my thoughts on Ted Roy McMillan and dynasty?
113:39I think he's a stud, but I have a hard time believing he ever gets legit volume.
113:45Will Bryce the quarterback. I mean, generally speaking in dynasty, when you, if you end up being right about his ability, you
113:52are going to be, you're going to come out ahead when you don't care about the situation.
113:58Like if you just lock into elite assets like that and you hold by and large in dynasty, you will, you will
114:06come out ahead more often than not. I would have Ted is like probably like a slight dynasty buy right now, but
114:13I, I, I don't, I'm not as convinced that Ted is that good though is the, is the difference.
114:20All right. We're going to tap. Actually, I'm going to take a tight end here.
114:25I'm not going to take a sickie because I've already got chase.
114:29We are going to take Terrence Ferguson and then set ourselves up to take whatever wide receiver we want in the end.
114:37Proud to say I'm Scottish. We, we definitely need to merge with these coasts.
114:42Yes. I mean, Scotland has done themselves proud in this world cup, I think.
114:46And they, uh, they just about drank Boston dry Spain getting pushed into draws with mid-tier units.
114:52I think it'd be a special year for dark.
114:55I mean, Spain's pretty good, man. Spain, Spain looked like different gravy yesterday.
115:00Argentina looked quite good. Brazil, Brazil does seem terrible though.
115:03I will, I will say that, that Brazil does seem awful.
115:07So that's, that's what I mean, Belgium also awful.
115:10Belgium, not even going to qualify. Probably don't have to be afraid of them.
115:15Then you know what? The Dutch have actually looked really good.
115:19That's probably one of the surprises for me is that the, I mean, that game, that game against Sweden, the Dutch were just all over it.
115:28Somerville definitely gives them something a little bit different.
115:31Very direct. Is Emmett Johnson, the Kenneth Walker handcuff?
115:34Or do you think. Demercado or the ghost of Kareem hunt renders Emmett useless?
115:39It definitely would. It's definitely not going to be a one-to-one Brad.
115:43I don't think there's any scenario where Kenneth Walker goes down and then you immediately see Emmett Johnson take over as the
115:51starting running back and just get the same workload.
115:54I think Rashard Smith will probably hang around and play in that circumstance.
115:58They probably would reach out to Kareem hunt if Kenneth Walker got hurt, but based on what I can tell from the
116:06outside, and I can't pretend to have followed the Emma Johnson situation as closely as the worthy stuff and the Kelsey stuff
116:13and the Rashi rice stuff and the Taequann Thornton stuff, by the way.
116:18But the reporting does make it seem that Emma Johnson probably has the best way, the best path to being the running
116:26back too for the Kansas City Chiefs. All right, we've got Burrow and Stroud, Brees Hall, David Montgomery, Ramondre Stevenson, Kenneth Gainwell,
116:33Jonah Coleman, Jamar Chase, AJ Brown, Jalen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Romeo Dubs, Nathaniel Tank Dell, and Jerry Judy.
116:40Noel would give us another stack. Jack, Surratt, and Karina really likes Surratt.
116:44So maybe I should take some more of him.
116:47I wonder how often he's drafted. How often is Elijah Surratt drafted?
116:515.8% of the time, so above 50%, but still.
116:55Uh, buh, buh, buh, buh, buh, buh. What do I want to do?
116:59What do I want to do? I'm kind of lost here.
117:03All right, you know what? Let's just take another Surratt team.
117:07Why not add in our rookie wide receiver? Belgium.
117:10Oh, actually, honestly, I didn't realize it was this easy for Belgium to get through.
117:15I mean, I wouldn't say there are locks to beat New Zealand.
117:19New Zealand do not look bad. I don't like Romeo Dubs, Mr.
117:23Baller19, but sometimes you got to hold your nose and just draft guys.
117:28All right. We wrapped it up with, uh, a, a plus on advancement.
117:32I'm taking that. Didn't get a ton of ADP value.
117:36Didn't get a ton of uniqueness. Final team, Burrow, Stroud, Brees, Montgomery, Ramondre, Ken Gainwell, Jonah Coleman, Jamar Chase, Asia Brown, Jelen
117:43Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Romeo Dubs, Tank Dell, Jerry Judy, and Elijah Surratt.
117:48Hey, pretty nice team there. I don't, I don't, I don't hate that team.
117:53Not, not very fun. I don't, is Dubs a great pick?
117:56I don't, I don't know if Romeo Dubs is a great pick.
118:00I don't think he's, I don't think he's a terrible pick.
118:04I tell you what, I, I kind of just have a hard time with Dubs because it feels like what's happening is
118:12people are looking at the Patriots situation and they're saying, all right, well, you know, they have AJ Brown, but they're still,
118:19you know, they, they freed it up from digs.
118:23And I don't, I don't know if it's that simple because I'm looking at the way the Patriots passing game is going to break out.
118:31And I don't know how favorable it's going to end up being for him.
118:36Let's go. Let's go pull up the old, the old Mike Clay projections and just see what we've got going on here.
118:44So it does seem like booty is still going to be on the team, right?
118:49So it doesn't seem, doesn't seem like booty is leaving.
118:52You still have DeMario Douglas who is pretty good, right?
118:56That doesn't, doesn't play a lot, but is there.
118:59Then you have Matt Collins who is one of the better run blocking wide receivers in the league, right?
119:05You also have last year's third round pick Kyle Williams.
119:09Then you have the fact that the team is probably going to play a good bit at 12.
119:15You know, they, they draft Raritan on, on day two of the NFL draft and they have a fullback and Reggie Gilliam.
119:23So I'm like, okay, how many snaps is this dude going to play?
119:27He's not going to be like a dominant target earner.
119:31I guess what you have to, I mean, maybe the, maybe the calculus is Drake may really is just that good.
119:38I mean, plenty of teams pay guys $20 million a year to do cardio and dubs also doesn't have that big of a, of a contract though.
119:47It's not 20. I don't think it was a $20 million a year.
119:52Romeo dub signed a four year, $68 million contract.
119:55So $8 million cap hit this year, $18 million next year.
119:59And then, yeah, he's going to be, he's going to be cut after this season because they have a $7.5 million out in his deal.
120:07So he will probably be gone. I mean, we're dubs.
120:11He's probably, he's probably a good pick. I probably should, should ease off on my guy, Romeo dubs.
120:17And I guess this is the question too. It does, it does seem like booty is probably going to stick around.
120:24I mean, if booty gets traded, if, if booty gets traded, I'll feel better about taking Romeo dubs, but unclear.
120:31Reardon feels camouflage and drafts giving him much 12.
120:34They might run. I tell you what I do.
120:37I do draft some Eli Reardon. I will, I will prove this that I'm, I'm not just talking.
120:43Um, cause I, I, I like the landing spot for Reardon and I, I people, people really liked him.
120:50Um, pre-draft like multiple, multiple sites really liked him.
120:53Pre-draft Eli Reardon, 711 drafts. Got him in. I've taken him six times, $44 invested, including in, uh, you know.
121:00Including in a, uh, a DK Millie maker. Uh, all right, everyone.
121:04No, we are, we are gonna, we're gonna get out of here because I've got a brand new video coming out over on the Matic fantasy football channel.
121:14It's all about zero RB stuff. So I hope you guys check that out.
121:19Uh, if you want to check out any of this stuff I've been using on stream today, you can head on over
121:26to flock fantasy.com link to that is in the description and pin down in the comments.
121:32You can use code Davis to get the annual mother flocker plus the best ball tools for $147 annually.
121:38But I'll be back with all you guys tomorrow day after rest of the week.
121:44Uh, everyone have a great day back with you guys later.
121:47Bye. Bye.
