0:00A very simple goal for us today in
0:01fantasy football. We are going to
0:03attempt to get a perfect grade from the
0:05flock fantasy best ball tool. We're
0:06going to use the historical
0:08construction. We're going to use the
0:09ownership projections and combinatorial
0:11projections as we draft out of the 12
0:14hole to draft a perfect team. So we are
0:15going to be aiming for awesome ADP
0:18value. Basically one of the easiest ways
0:20to draft a good fantasy football team is
0:22to ensure that you have real-time and
0:25closing line ADP value. There really is
0:27not much better of a way to guarantee
0:29that your team is going to be scoring
0:30fantasy points and that that is all
0:32kinds of historical research going into
0:34that. We're not going to pursue any
0:35crazy positional strategy. We're not
0:38going to take four tight ends. We're not
0:39going to take four quarterbacks. We're
0:41not only going to take three running
0:42backs. We're not going to take 10 wide
0:43receivers because by and large that
0:45tends to be pretty edge case style
0:48fantasy football teams. By and large,
0:51you know, that's not really what we want
0:53to be doing in fantasy football. So we
0:54are picking here at the 12 hole, which
0:56probably means that we are going to
0:58start with two running backs. You know,
1:00those are the guys who are there by ADP.
1:02If CeeDee Lamb fell to us, we would be
1:04happy to take him. We don't need to
1:06reach on Kenneth Walker because I know
1:08that the computer is not going to love
1:09that. We don't need to reach on Derrick
1:11Henry. There's no reason really at the
1:13turns to get unique. So we are going to
1:14take Uh well, actually cuz I know
1:17uniqueness is part of the grade. We are
1:19going to take James Cook and then we're
1:21going to take Amari and Anthony. Not a
1:22huge reach there. Uh positionally, that
1:25is completely fine. If we look
1:26historically at teams that start running
1:28back running back, there are almost
1:30400,000 teams that have started this way
1:32traditionally in fantasy football. Now,
1:35I do think it is a little bit harder
1:37over at the turn. You know, I didn't
1:38know when I gave myself this mission, I
1:41didn't know which slot I was going to be
1:42drafting out of. I do think it is going
1:44to be a little bit harder and maybe
1:45ultimately I will fail. And maybe I'll
1:47find that the flock fantasy overlay that
1:49you guys can get over at flock
1:50fantasy.com using code Davis. Link to
1:53that is in the description and link to
1:55that is in the comments as well. Maybe
1:57I'll find that it's a bit too harsh of a
1:59judge. We'll see. Generally speaking,
2:01when I am drafting out of the 11th slot
2:03or the 12th slot over in this range of
2:05the draft, I am fine taking Javonte
2:07Williams there, Kyren Williams there,
2:09Etienne there. But, this one is just
2:11lining up too perfectly. We've got
2:12Olave, we've got Neighbors, we've got T.
2:15I probably am going to be passing on Tee
2:17Higgins because I won't want to take
2:19Burrow at the next slot. I'm fine taking
2:22Ladd because if we get Herbert, it will
2:24generally be at an ADP value. I'm also
2:27I'm one of the few people in the fantasy
2:29football space who is, you know, still
2:30willing to take Malik Neighbors even
2:33though his knee is banged up. Um all
2:35right. Well, I guess I lied. I am going
2:37to take Tee Higgins. And then, I'm also
2:40going to set up
2:42I'm going to set up Luther Burden where
2:45if I want to get if I want to get Caleb
2:47Williams, I can get him as a value. I'm
2:49also guessing that the Luther Burden Tee
2:51Higgins combo, if I check in the tool
2:52right now, I'm going to guess that's a
2:54relatively unique pairing because
2:56they're basically fourth-round picks
2:58together. That's actually one of the
2:59smarter ways to create uniqueness is
3:01when you use these really, really small
3:04ADP values. Like, you take two guys who
3:06are generally speaking going in the same
3:08round, and that's what I thought. I have
3:101.9% of that combo, but less than 0.4%
3:14of the time in a given draft are those
3:15two guys paired together. So, I'm
3:17thinking that we're going to get we're
3:18going to get dinged a little bit on ADP
3:20value there for Luther Burden, but I do
3:23actually quite like that combination.
3:24That is, I didn't give really up any
3:26projected points. I mean, Luther Burden,
3:28Tank Dell, McMillan, Ekeler, Mike Evans,
3:30McLaurin. I think these guys are
3:32certainly all in the same tier. I know I
3:34didn't want to take Tee Higgins, which
3:36is
3:37a little bit of a bummer there. Frankly,
3:39I I cuz I am not going to want to take
3:41Burrow at 60, 61. I'm also not going to
3:43want to take Caleb Williams at 60, 61.
3:46Super, super small chance. I've I've
3:48seen it happen where Caleb Williams gets
3:50all the way back to 84. No chance Burrow
3:52is going to get back to me at 84, but
3:54let's see what the room gives me. So,
3:56checking the advanced rate stuff, we're
3:57still really no difference between two
3:59and three quarterbacks here. I'm
4:01probably aiming towards
4:03five running backs. Uh pretty good
4:06finals rate, pretty good semi-finals
4:08rate. Thinking that we do probably end
4:10up going seven wide receivers as well.
4:12Certainly three tight ends. You know,
4:14when you when you miss on McBride,
4:16Bowers, Loveland, and I I mean, I
4:18suppose you could probably toss Tyler
4:20Warren in there. Feels reasonable to
4:23assume that you're going to be going
4:24three tight ends. The late-round tight
4:25ends are just so good. Terrance
4:27Ferguson, Gunnar Helm, Dulcich. I mean,
4:29even you could toss Kmet in there as
4:31well. So, this is going to be a huge
4:34part of our draft grade. And and also, I
4:36guess I should add on top of it, I'm
4:38trying to get you guys to tell me that I
4:39had a good draft as well. So, we are
4:41going to take Brevyn Spann-Ford in very
4:42small ADP value there on Tuition. And
4:47then, we might as well add in Let's
4:49Let's actually give ourselves an out for
4:51a quarterback. Let's take Ryan Thomas
4:53Jr. there as well. So, we have James
4:55Cook, Amari and Hampton, Brevyn
4:57Spann-Ford, Tee Higgins, Luke Musgrave,
4:59and Brian Thomas Jr.
5:01I I'm I'm failing on the mission right
5:03now. Look at my Look at my little duck,
5:05bro.
5:06Uh C+ for advancement, C+ for ADP score,
5:08S tier for uniqueness. So, I am at least
5:11getting the uniqueness, although that is
5:12the smallest part of the grade there.
5:15And uh you know, by by hook or by crook,
5:17we are going to find a way not only for
5:20the Flock overlay to say that I drafted
5:22a good team, but I want you guys to
5:23comment down below. Just give me a
5:24letter grade on the team. It's all you
5:25got to do. A, B, C, D, E, F. Gosh, I
5:29hope not an F. S tier if I end up having
5:32an absolute masterpiece on this team.
5:34Comment down below your letter grade for
5:36this best ball team. All right,
5:37generally, this tends to be like a very
5:40difficult part of the draft because if
5:42you don't have an obvious stack set up,
5:44and I I mean, I guess Herbert and
5:45Hampton actually is probably fine.
5:48It's hard to take one of these
5:49quarterbacks on stack. You don't want to
5:51take Dak. Herbert goes. I mean, come on,
5:54guys. I'm getting getting absolutely
5:56bullied here. I mean, I guess that's why
5:58I took Brian Thomas Jr. So I can take
6:00Trevor Lawrence. I want to retain some
6:03flexibility. I I'd like to add in
6:05another potential quarterback here.
6:08I am going to select
6:11Jordan Addison gives me Kyler. Godwin
6:13gives me Baker. Let's do Let's do
6:16Addison for the Kyler Murray
6:18flexibility, which now gives us a
6:201-3-4-1 build. I'm up to a I'm up to a
6:23B- minus. I'm up to a B- minus, so I'm
6:25pleasing the the overlay the overlay
6:28gods there. That's just genuinely a a
6:31tricky spot when all the quarterbacks
6:32go. Harvey has the shoulder injury. It's
6:35like that I'm not really that big of a
6:36D'Onta Foreman guy. I'm more of a Warren
6:38guy. Just when you when you're not
6:39double tapping quarterback in the '80s
6:42and the '90s, a lot of these picks just
6:44do not feel very good. Well, all my
6:46favorite wide receiver targets just
6:47went. Josh Downs, Xavier Worthy, Michael
6:49Pittman Jr., and Matthew Golden. I mean,
6:52basically that is the It's my entire
6:54list of like every single draft. I'm
6:56trying to target those four players. You
6:58can add Casey Cansepsean in there as
6:59well. I actually just did a video about
7:01that over on the Maddock Fantasy
7:03Football redraft channel, which does
7:05make this upcoming selection a smidgen
7:07more difficult. I suppose there is
7:09minimal ADP value on Dart. You can
7:12definitely do unstacked uncorrelated.
7:15Kyler is going to give us our stack. So
7:17let's do Kyler. And let's take someone
7:20I'm below market on. I'm well below
7:22market on
7:24Well, Rashad White is also kind of good
7:26here.
7:27Do I want to take Rashad White or do I
7:29want to take Kyle Pitts? You know what?
7:31I I'm going to take three anyways. Let's
7:33take Rashad White. I have that week 17
7:35correlation with the Jacksonville
7:37Jaguars. There's We have Lawrence. We
7:39have Kyler Murray. James Cook, Amari and
7:41Hampton, Brevin Jordan, and Rashad
7:42White. Tee Higgins, Luther Burden, and
7:45Brian Robinson Jr, and Jordan Addison.
7:46So, both of our quarterbacks are stacked
7:48and correlated. We've got some week 17
7:50bring backs. But, I guess I guess I
7:53should have given myself maybe an easier
7:56mission, an easier thought experiment.
7:58It's a little bit harder than you would
7:59think to truly get yourself an S-tier
8:02draft. Even if that's literally your
8:04goal, it's a little bit harder than you
8:05would think. Definitely want to start
8:07thinking about taking a tight end here,
8:08potentially even two tight ends. I guess
8:11I don't have any correlated pieces here.
8:15We're going to go ahead and look at who
8:16the
8:17very small ADP value on Jake Ferguson. I
8:20could take a third quarterback here if I
8:23wanted. Trying to see if there's any
8:25late round quarterback that makes sense
8:26with this build. It really doesn't. I
8:28could wait and take Rodgers actually.
8:31That would maybe be sort of interesting
8:32waiting to take Rodgers and then go with
8:34Freiermuth. I mean, I don't really like
8:36Jake Ferguson. He does He does help me
8:38out a little bit more in terms of trying
8:41to get the good grade. Although this ADP
8:43value, I mean, 131 to 126 is is
8:46basically absolutely nothing. So, I'm
8:49going to take the guy who I want to
8:50take, which is Stefon Diggs, who is most
8:52important here.
8:54I guess I will take Fergus. I mean, I
8:56honestly kind of like Godert better. All
8:58right, we're going to take Stop hemming
9:00and hawing, Davis. We're We're going to
9:01take Ferguson. I'm going to take three
9:02tight ends anyways. Ferguson is going to
9:04have a really strong route rate and he's
9:06going to be out there. He's got He's got
9:08a ton of contingent value of Pickens or
9:11CeeDee Lamb were to get injured. But, I
9:12mean, Diggs is just such a slam dunk
9:14there. I cannot believe that Stefon
9:16Diggs, who is so obviously going to be
9:18signing with a good team, is going after
9:21Jaylen Coker and right next to Amari
9:24Cooper Jr. Um, is this team the best
9:26team I've ever drafted? No. Is it Is it
9:28a pretty good team? Yeah, I mean, look,
9:30if I drafted 150 teams like this in a
9:32given contest on Underdog, I I basically
9:35I I would be fine. There probably is not
9:37really much of a way for me to salvage
9:39this in terms of getting an S-tier
9:40grade. In fact, no one in this draft has
9:42an S-tier grade, which is Again, that's
9:44sort of interesting. I I guess the way
9:46the grades are going to tend to work is
9:48that if one team has a super team,
9:51everyone else is going to be blemished.
9:54There are a couple guys here who are
9:55like totally like, "What is this guy
9:57doing?" Bo Nix at 73. I mean, look,
9:59you're always going to get someone
10:00acting squirrely in these rooms. The The
10:02later and deeper it gets in the summer,
10:04the more people are going to be acting
10:06squirrely. We are up on the clock. We
10:09don't even have the option to take
10:10Brenton Strange.
10:12Uh we can go ahead and take Sure. I
10:14mean, I never take T.J. Hockenson, but
10:16sure. T.J. Hockenson is fine there,
10:18second tight end, and we can be done at
10:21running back with Jonah Coleman.
10:23Coleman, a guy I've been taking a little
10:25bit more. Now, I actually was arguing
10:27with Corrine and Jacob about wanting to
10:29draft Jonah Coleman after he went in the
10:31fourth round of the Broncos. I had him
10:32ranked quite high in my initial rankings
10:35right after the NFL draft, much higher
10:37than Corrine and Jacob did. I I pulled
10:39it back a little bit from there. But now
10:40that Harvey had this off-season like
10:43shoulder {slash} labrum surgery, J.K.
10:45Dobbins is I believe what, a 2-year $8
10:46million deal? Like Coleman has a role
10:49there for him, and he's now going to get
10:52a ton of practice in, you know,
10:54off-season team activities and in
10:56training camp where he's going to get to
10:57play with Bo Nix in the ones, which I
10:59think is pretty bullish.
11:00A Jake Ferguson T.J. Hockenson tight end
11:03room, you know, not particularly
11:05inspiring, but wait till we add Terrance
11:07Ferguson. That rug is really going to
11:08tie everything together. In terms of the
11:10advanced rate stuff, three quarterback
11:12is still giving us 16% if we go five
11:15running backs, 15%.
11:17Yeah, there's just I guess I guess
11:19really what it is is that historically
11:21the running back running back starts
11:22have actually done quite poor on
11:24Underdog because you leave yourself
11:26without the wide receiver firepower, and
11:28that is true for this team. I I Higgins,
11:30Burden, BTJ, Addison, and Diggs is a
11:33nice wide receiver room, but you would
11:36it is lacking a little bit of firepower,
11:38right? I mean, we just do not have the
11:40wide receiver stud there. One more tight
11:42end, maybe one more quarterback here.
11:44Probably, I mean, Geno is fine here. Can
11:47I do Geno and add 9 Mitchell?
11:49I can do Geno and add 9 Mitchell. That's
11:51going to leave me a bit in the lurch
11:53with third tight end. It would really be
11:55am I able to get Terrance Ferguson at
11:56the next pick or am I not? I think Geno
11:59and 80 Mitchell is what we're going to
12:01do here if the if the room gives it to
12:02me. Lawrence and Murray would be
12:05probably below my line where I would be
12:07thinking about wanting to do a third
12:09quarterback. So, we're going to do Geno.
12:12I guess I should have just checked to
12:13make sure Adedayo MItchell Okay, he is
12:15still available. So, that now gives us a
12:173562
12:19planning on doing one more wide receiver
12:21and one more tight end cuz that's what
12:23the recommendation from the tool is. We
12:25are still at a B- C+ on advancement, B-
12:30on ADP score, B+ on uniqueness, which I
12:33quite like. I am very big on the Geno
12:35Adedayo Mitchell connection. I think
12:38that is is an elite elite late stack
12:41option. Like, give me Geno and 80
12:43Mitchell over Rodgers and Freiermuth
12:46over Mendoza and Jaylen Nailor or Trey
12:48Tucker over I mean, I guess there's not
12:50a late stack with Jacoby Brissett
12:52really. Uh over
12:55Tua Tagovailoa and Zachariah Branch over
12:58Deshaun Watson and Isaiah Bond. Someone
13:00Someone mentioned that to me in the
13:01stream the other day. I thought that was
13:03a bit much. I I
13:05I know it it seems like I'm doing a bit
13:08with the Adedayo Mitchell thing, but
13:10man, I I am there's enough chatter from
13:13everyone involved in the Jets camp that
13:15I I'm honestly really starting to buy
13:17it. I think that Adedayo Mitchell is
13:18going to Let me Let me lay down a marker
13:21right here.
13:23Adedayo Mitchell is going to out target
13:25first round pick Omar Cooper Jr. How
13:27about that? I think we are just about
13:29going to get lucky here in terms of
13:30being able to get Terrance Ferguson.
13:32He's still there. Would be the slam dunk
13:35option. I probably wouldn't take Injured
13:37Greg I would probably just jam in
13:39another wide receiver. Although none of
13:41the parts of the game tree that we are
13:43currently in are really all that
13:45favorable. 16% historical with this
13:49capital spent at quarterback which is
13:51right about average at 16%. So come on.
13:55I'm just fading fading one pick here.
13:57All right, we got it. Give me T Ferg.
14:00And then
14:01who would be a good I mean Keon Coleman
14:04gives us some multiple outs there. You
14:06know what?
14:07Actually let's take Xavion Thomas.
14:09Xavion Thomas just remains a very fun
14:11pick for me and relatively low stakes
14:13here in the 18th round. So we end up
14:15with a B minus. I think this is better
14:17than a B minus. I'm going to go ahead
14:19and go out on a limb and say this is
14:20better than a B minus team. At the end
14:21of the day Trevor Lawrence stacked with
14:23Tuton and BTJ, Kyler Murray with Jordan
14:26Addison and Hawkins. Geno Smith with
14:28Adonai Mitchell, running back room of
14:30James Cook, Amari and Hampton, Tuton,
14:32Rashad White, Jonah Coleman. Oh man.
14:35Oh, horrible mistake that I didn't
14:38realize until just now.
14:40This is what you get. This is what you
14:42get for not paying attention. James
14:43Cook, Hampton, Tuton and Rashad White
14:45all have buys in week seven. So I'm
14:47going to be down a running back in week
14:48seven. That is
14:50That's pretty dark. Not loving that. So
14:53maybe maybe the B minus maybe the B
14:54minus is accurate. Tee Higgins, Luther
14:56Burden BTJ Addison Diggs Adonai
14:59Mitchell, Xavion Thomas, Jake Ferguson,
15:01TJ Hawkins, Terrance Ferguson. You know
15:02what? I'm actually going to go ahead and
15:04agree. This is a very B minus team. Just
15:06going back through that list. The tight
15:08ends don't really have enough ceiling.
15:10Ferguson, Hawkins and and and T Ferg.
15:12Ferguson and Hawkins are high floor but
15:14very low ceiling guys. Ferguson has
15:16almost no floor but a very very high
15:19fantasy football ceiling. I'm not going
15:21to have any running back points in week
15:23seven. It's going to be whatever Keona
15:24Coleman can get me. Honestly, uh maybe
15:27maybe going all the way back, maybe the
15:29thing I should have done, truly,
15:32would have been passing on Tuton and
15:34double tapping Tate and Thomas there.
15:37And then potentially maybe even doing
15:39Harvey or Manongay over Trevor Lawrence
15:42here at 84 85. I mean, I would have
15:45taken Jaylen Warren there. And then
15:46instead of Rashad White, we could have
15:48done Kyler and Dart or something like
15:50that, but uh nice little postmortem
15:52there. But if you want access to these
15:54tools, head on over to flockfantasy.com,
15:56use code Davis. Link to that is in the
15:58description and in pinned in the
16:00comments as well. Make sure you like
16:01this video. Make sure you subscribe to
16:03the Davis Matics Best Ball channel and I
16:05will be back with you guys with a
16:06special recorded video tomorrow.
