Stop Drafting Running Backs Like An Idiot

Davis Mattek expects Aaron Jones to be the starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings in week one, but expresses significant durability concerns. Mattek states: 'I don't know if Aaron Jones' body at this stage can hold up to playing football for 17 games. I mean, it hasn't held up for 17 games in quite some time.' Jones is going up in ADP, but Mattek prefers younger alternatives like Jordan Mason due to these injury-history concerns.

Source selected Adonai Mitchell as wide receiver in final draft roster, part of the ping-pong strategy of rotating correct receivers by week.

Referenced as part of the elite WR tier with 19-20 fantasy points per game ceilings. His team with Kenneth Walker and Jeremiah Love is cited as having a very, very good fantasy team that probably has honestly a higher ceiling than Davis Mattek's own draft team at wide receiver.

Davis Mattek is drafting Bijan Robinson at the 1.2 slot in a best ball format, positioning him as a premium early-round target in 2026 fantasy football.

Davis Mattek questions his confidence in Breece Hall's ceiling relative to TreVeyon Henderson, suggesting the two have comparable upside potential despite Breece's draft positioning, implying Hall may be overvalued at his ADP.

Davis Mattek stacked Brock Purdy with Ricky Pearsall as a best ball pairing, and later selected Jake Ferguson as a tight end to pair with Purdy. Purdy serves as the secondary quarterback in Mattek's final roster alongside Dak Prescott as part of a two-QB strategy, indicating confidence in his upside and stacking potential.

Davis Mattek expresses confidence in Bucky Irving as a mid-round pick with both upside and safety. Irving is already back at organized team activities for the Buccaneers, has running back one ceiling, and maintains a clear fantasy football floor even if Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell are strong contributors. Mattek notes Irving has had a stretch of running back one games, demonstrating legitimate ceiling upside. Irving is part of the Buccaneers running back room alongside Jahmyr Gibbs and Treyveon Henderson, which Mattek feels "very good" about. Mattek selected Irving as his tertiary running back in his final draft roster as part of a floor-ceiling and contingent value strategy at the position.

Irvin is drafted as a core running back in the best ball team, indicating confidence in his role and production as a primary back.

Chase Brown is listed among the elite running backs (alongside Taylor McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, Dalvin Cook, Kenneth Walker, and Saquon Barkley) whose draft capital gets 'hoovered up' at the 1-2 turn, indicating he is a consensus early-round target in 2026.

Source selected Chigoziem Okonkwo as tight end in final draft roster, part of the overall team construction.

Davis Mattek assigns Chuba Hubbard a 0% probability of a legendary upside season. A really good season for Hubbard would be approximately 14.5 points per game. Mattek emphasizes that Hubbard has a high probability of being the number two running back on his team and not contributing in the pass game, making him unsuitable as a building block style player due to his limited ceiling and downside risk.

Davis Mattek lists De'Andre Swift as a lower-probability ceiling option compared to Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, and Javonte Williams. While Mattek notes these players "certainly can hit their ceilings," he emphasizes they have much lower probability of doing so, positioning Swift as a fade relative to higher-ceiling alternatives.

Davis Mattek selected Dak Prescott at pick 74 in best ball to avoid falling too far behind at the quarterback position, noting that being behind at QB in best ball is too hard to overcome. Mattek emphasizes that top quarterbacks like Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence are likely gone by the next turn at picks 95–98, making it difficult to recover from a quarterback deficit. Prescott serves as the primary QB in Mattek's final roster, paired with Brock Purdy as a two-QB strategy.

Dalvin Cook is listed among the elite running backs (alongside Taylor McCaffrey, Achane, Walker, Hampton, Chase Brown, Barkley) whose draft capital gets 'hoovered up' at the 1-2 turn, indicating he is a consensus early-round target in 2026.

Listed among available WR options at the 4-5 turn alongside Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, and Jameson Williams; characterized as a 'good player who could have quite good fantasy seasons' but without the 19-20 fantasy points per game ceiling of elite tier receivers.

De'Von Achane is listed among the elite running backs (alongside Taylor McCaffrey, Cook, Walker, Hampton, Chase Brown, Barkley) whose draft capital gets 'hoovered up' at the 1-2 turn, indicating he is a consensus early-round target in 2026. Davis Mattek describes Achane as an absolute layup pick in draft scenarios because the team doesn't have Mike Evans and needs more numbers to throw at the position, making him a strong value selection.

Source identifies Demond Claiborne as a potential late-round pick option in a build where the drafter could afford to take a zero at the end, suggesting he is a speculative deep-bench option. Demond Claiborne is mentioned as a possible final pick option in a draft where the source has built flexibility to take a zero at the end, suggesting he is a marginal late-round option.

Davis Mattek considers taking a third quarterback as a viable strategy and explicitly names DeShaun Watson as an acceptable option if the drafter has a strong positional preference, positioning him as a reasonable late-round QB target.

Selected in draft strategy over other WR options like Rashee Rice and Chris Olave; positioned as a preferred target in the mid-round range due to ceiling potential and scarcity of elite WR options at the 4-5 turn. Source made DeVonta Smith a giant favorite there due to target hierarchy and age factors. The source feels quite good about DeVonta Smith paired with George Pickens due to week 17 correlation benefits in best ball.

Dylan Sampson represents the platonic ideal of a running back room strategy; he has a clear stand-alone role as the passing-down back for a bad team that will have to pass frequently, and has already demonstrated massive contingent value when Quintez Cephus got injured, making him a strong late-round pick.

Emmanuel Wilson is not a good pick for fifth or sixth running back on Best Ball teams because he lacks the combination of contingent value and stand-alone role; he is generally a worse pick than wide receivers going in that range.

Davis Mattek notes that Geno Smith is falling in fantasy football drafts, suggesting he is undervalued and available later than expected. This makes him a good option for late-round quarterback selection in best ball, providing value as a secondary or tertiary QB option.

Davis Mattek is lower on George Kittle than the global consensus, citing his entry into his 30s and recovery from an Achilles injury; however, reports suggest he is likely to return for week one, mitigating some injury risk.

The source targets George Pickens in the 2-3 turn instead of Jeremiah Love, valuing his 'huge spike week potential' as a wide receiver. Finished as WR4 in fantasy football last season; cited as evidence that elite ceiling WRs are scarce and worth targeting early. The source feels quite good about George Pickens paired with DeVonta Smith due to week 17 correlation benefits in best ball.

Davis Mattek notes that JK Dobbins, even as a starting running back, does not project well in best ball formats, highlighting the difficulty of relying on running backs in mid-to-late rounds as part of his broader argument against drafting RBs early.

Ja'Marr Chase goes at the 1.1 pick in this draft, establishing the baseline for elite early-round wide receiver value in 2026; Davis Mattek references him as part of the elite WR tier with 19-20 fantasy points per game ceilings that the source is 'chasing' in draft strategy, representing the ceiling-upside standard that mid-round WRs cannot match.

Davis Mattek describes Jahmyr Gibbs as 'clearly the number one player in fantasy football' and views getting him at pick 1.2 (after Ja'Marr Chase at 1.1) as a 'huge gift,' indicating strong conviction in his elite 2026 fantasy value. Gibbs is positioned as the 'absolute superstar, number one running back' that you 'have to have' in draft strategy; he is the number one running back anchor in an ideal running back room strategy, with the team totally dependent on his fantasy performance, making him a critical anchor pick. Davis Mattek expresses confidence in Gibbs as part of the running back room alongside Treyveon Henderson and Bucky Irving, stating 'we feel very good' about this group.

Davis Mattek selected Jake Ferguson as his tight end to pair with Brock Purdy, preferring him over George Kittle as part of his overall team construction strategy.

Listed among available WR options at the 4-5 turn alongside Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Jaylen Waddle; characterized as a good player who could have quite good fantasy seasons but without the 19-20 fantasy points per game ceiling of elite tier receivers.

Available at the 4-5 turn alongside Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Jameson Williams as a good player capable of quite good fantasy seasons, but without the 19-20 fantasy points per game ceiling of elite tier receivers. Davis Mattek makes DeVonta Smith a giant favorite over Waddle in draft positioning, indicating Waddle is overvalued relative to Smith at their respective ADP.

Davis Mattek identifies Jaylen Warren as a missed opportunity at pick 74, suggesting he should have been prioritized earlier as a running back option. Warren represents a better value than the quarterback selection (Dak Prescott) that was made at that spot.

The source explicitly warns against drafting Jeremiah Love in the 2-3 turn range, calling it 'a huge misstep' and advising to 'take what the board gives you' instead of overrating his floor. However, the source also notes 'I'm not the biggest Jeremiah Love guy, but I see paths to him having, you know, an 18-19 fantasy points per game season'; positioned as having ceiling upside but with less conviction than Kenneth Walker; part of a strong fantasy team with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kenneth Walker.

Source identifies Jordan James as a potential late-round pick option in a build where the drafter could afford to take a zero at the end, suggesting he is a speculative deep-bench option. Jordan James is mentioned as a possible final pick option in a draft where the source has built flexibility to take a zero at the end, suggesting he is a marginal late-round option.

Davis Mattek selected Jordan Mason over Aaron Jones, preferring the slightly younger running back for durability reasons in a 17-game season. Mason has both a standalone role and insanely high contingent value; if Aaron Jones were to get injured or not be able to play anymore, the ceiling is very high, making him a strong mid-round pick with dual value sources.

The source explicitly warns against drafting Josh Jacobs in the 2-3 turn range, calling it 'a huge misstep' and advising to 'take what the board gives you' instead of overrating his floor; this is part of a broader strategy to avoid middling running back production.

Referenced as part of the elite WR tier with 19-20 fantasy points per game ceilings that Davis Mattek is chasing in draft strategy; represents the ceiling-upside standard that mid-round WRs cannot match.

Source identifies Kaelin Black as a potential late-round pick option in a build where the drafter could afford to take a zero at the end, suggesting he is a speculative deep-bench option. Kaelin Black is mentioned as a possible final pick option in a draft where the source has built flexibility to take a zero at the end, suggesting he is a marginal late-round option.

Davis Mattek identifies Keaton Mitchell as one of the last viable running backs to consider before the position becomes 'cooked' in best ball; his draft selection exacerbates the running back depth problem, making it harder to find viable fifth and sixth running back options.

Kenneth Gainwell is a potential contributor in the Buccaneers running back room, but even if he and Sean Tucker are strong contributors, Bucky Irving still has a clear fantasy football floor and role.

Davis Mattek states 'I'm a big Kenneth Walker guy' and notes he is part of a very, very good fantasy team with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jeremiah Love that has a higher ceiling than the source's own draft team; positioned as a strong RB option with ceiling upside.

Davis Mattek would favor Kyren Williams over TreVeyon Henderson, but not by a large margin, indicating relatively close ceiling potential between the two running backs despite their draft positioning.

Davis Mattek views Marvin Harrison Jr. as a contrarian value play with significant downside risk. While Harrison has an insanely low floor—he could be benched entirely—Mattek acknowledges that given his draft pedigree, high draft position, and performance to date, it would be absurd to say he has no chance of a good season. However, Mattek does not love Harrison this year and flags him as part of a group of receivers (alongside Pearsall and Cooper Stribling) with a lot of potential zeros in the range of outcomes, indicating high volatility and bust risk. The upside scenario depends on Jacoby Brissett quarterbacking the Arizona Cardinals for the whole year and Harrison playing in a similar role to last season.

Listed among available WR options at the 4-5 turn alongside Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, and Jameson Williams; characterized as a 'good player who could have quite good fantasy seasons' but without the 19-20 fantasy points per game ceiling of elite tier receivers. Source acknowledges an argument to take Mike Evans but ultimately passes due to running back scarcity at the next pick.

Mike Washington is not a good pick for fifth or sixth running back on Best Ball teams because he lacks the combination of contingent value and stand-alone role; he is generally a worse pick than wide receivers going in that range.

Source selected Omar Cooper Jr. as wide receiver in final draft roster, paired with Brock Purdy as part of the ping-pong strategy of rotating correct receivers by week.

Davis Mattek selects Pat Bryant as his final pick, explicitly stating he has no range of outcomes where he becomes a league-winning player and will not achieve even 12 fantasy points per game. However, Mattek values him for floor stability, expecting him to be active on the field and part of team plans, capable of delivering around 11 points in a given week.

Referenced as part of the elite WR tier with 19-20 fantasy points per game ceilings that Davis Mattek is chasing in draft strategy; represents the ceiling-upside standard that mid-round WRs cannot match.

Quintez Cephus's injury previously demonstrated Dylan Sampson's massive contingent value, showing that Sampson can step up when opportunities arise.

Davis Mattek likes Rhamondre Stevenson and drafts him, but emphasizes the need to be very clear about what you are getting from him and what sort of teams he fits. His fit depends on draft context and available alternatives at specific pick positions. Stevenson is the incumbent running back ahead of TreVeyon Henderson; if Stevenson gets hurt or loses the job to Henderson, Henderson has the chance to finish top 10 at the position.

Davis Mattek selected Ricky Pearsall to stack with Brock Purdy, preferring this pairing over Xavier Worthy despite the pain of passing on Worthy. Pearsall is drafted as part of the best ball team's wide receiver core, indicating confidence in his role and production as a stacking partner with the 49ers quarterback.

Davis Mattek flags Rondale Moore (referred to as 'Pearsall' in the transcript) as part of a group of receivers with significant downside risk, noting there are 'a lot of potential zeros' in the range of outcomes, indicating high volatility and bust risk. Despite this concern, Mattek selected Moore in his final draft roster paired with Brock Purdy as part of a ping-pong strategy of rotating correct receivers by week.

Was a 15.5 points per game player as a rookie on a bad team. If the Giants improve offensively and Tyrod Tracy's role diminishes, there is legitimate RB1 ceiling for Saquon; also listed among elite RBs whose draft capital gets 'hoovered up' at the 1-2 turn.

Sean Tucker is a potential contributor in the Buccaneers running back room, but even if he and Kenneth Gainwell are strong contributors, Bucky Irving still has a clear fantasy football floor and role.

Davis Mattek considers taking a third quarterback as a viable strategy and explicitly names Shedeur Sanders as an acceptable option if the drafter has a strong positional preference, positioning him as a reasonable late-round QB target.

Tank Bigsby is not a stone zero and will have some kind of small stand-alone role, making him a viable fifth or sixth running back option on Best Ball teams. Davis Mattek prefers him over other late-round backs like Mike Washington, Emmanuel Wilson, and Cam'Ron Vidal who lack the combination of contingent value and stand-alone role.

Terrance Ferguson is one of Davis Mattek's absolute favorite tight end picks; the source believes Ferguson and Chigoziem Okonkwo have so much floor and safety built in that it doesn't really matter which one is selected, indicating strong confidence in Ferguson's floor and consistency.

Davis Mattek identifies Tony Pollard as a missed opportunity in the draft at pick 74, suggesting he should have been prioritized earlier as a running back option. Pollard represents a better value than the quarterback selection (Dak Prescott) that was made at that spot.

Davis Mattek highlights TreVeyon Henderson as a player with legitimate RB1 ceiling potential. When Rhamondre Stevenson was out last year, Henderson looked like one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL, demonstrating efficiency metrics that support high-end production. Mattek notes Henderson will definitely have a week one role and has the chance to finish top 10 at the running back position if either Rhamondre Stevenson gets hurt or Henderson clearly takes the job, providing both floor and ceiling value.

Davis Mattek expresses confidence in Treyveon Henderson as part of a running back room alongside Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucky Irving, stating 'we feel very good' about this group. Henderson is positioned as a core piece of the team construction with legitimate ceiling upside in best ball.

Tajae Spears is not a stone zero, indicating he has some fantasy value as a late-round running back option on Best Ball teams.

Davis Mattek identifies Woody Marks as one of the last running backs worth considering before the position becomes 'cooked,' marking the cutoff for viable running back selections in best ball formats.