Training Camp Begins (Fantasy Football Drafts)

Will be the clear wide receiver one in the Chargers' offense, positioning him as the primary receiving target in Mike McDaniel's system. This establishes Brown's role security and target priority within the offense.

Alec Pierce is on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, which affects his draft availability and timeline for return to practice and games.

Davis Mattek is lighter than intended on Amon-Ra St. Brown at only $469 invested in salary cap leagues, expressing uncertainty about his draft positioning. St. Brown doesn't feel as dominant as tier-1 WRs like Lamb, JSN, Puka, Chase, or Jefferson, suggesting relative underperformance or less elite upside compared to peers at similar ADP.

The source indicates a willingness to take Baker Mayfield 10 spots after ADP, suggesting he is undervalued relative to his draft position.

Bijan Robinson is preferred over Ja'Marr Chase in early draft selections, particularly in portfolio/multi-draft formats. Davis Mattek argues that taking Chase ahead of Robinson is inefficient because Chase falls regularly to picks 4-6, while Robinson provides scarce early RB value that is harder to replace later in the draft.

Likely to have the highest-scoring tight end season of all time; the source has 16% allocation to Bowers as a second-round player, which is significant conviction. The source explicitly states 'I'm in on Bowers,' signaling a bullish stance on his 2024 fantasy outlook.

The source is concerned that teams drafting behind will select Calvin Ridley before the next pick, indicating Ridley is undervalued at his current draft position and warrants immediate selection.

CeeDee Lamb identified as part of the elite six-receiver group (Chase Puka, JSN, St. Brown, Lamb, and Justin Jefferson) that projects in its own quadrant at week 10; these receivers are in a separate elite projection tier from other wide receivers.

Chris Rodriguez is probably not on the PUP list, clarifying his draft availability status and suggesting he is healthy for training camp.

Suffered a calf strain on the first day of training camp, continuing a pattern of theoretical promise undermined by injury setbacks. The source sarcastically notes the predictability of Kirk's injury history, calling him 'the most theoretical player of all time,' suggesting skepticism about his ability to stay healthy and produce.

Christian McCaffrey (CMC) was included in a mock draft team evaluated as B+ in advancement, B+ in ADP, and B− in uniqueness, indicating a balanced, consensus-aligned approach.

Davis Mattek views Christian Watson as fine to draft in every draft, noting it's not crazy to target him, though he's not a standout recommendation. Watson is part of the discussion around fourth and fifth round wide receivers that could be league winners.

The offense is relying on Hubard quite a bit; he operates in a ping-pong combo with Bree Salt at running back, meaning one of the three running backs taken will underperform each week due to normal distribution.

The source cites Chuba Hubbard's 2024 season as a cautionary tale of draft disappointment, noting he 'went to zero' with a series of low-production games (17 rushes, 10 rushes, 0, 0, 0, 7.5, 9.4, 4, 1.7, 2.5, 3.8, 8.3, 20 fantasy points across games). While Hubbard did reclaim production in the postseason, the source emphasizes the risk of relying on backup running backs who can lose their role unexpectedly.

Archetype comparison to Travis Kelce rather than Gronkowski, suggesting a different role and skill set within tight end evaluation. Identified as an important tight end in the format; the source notes that tight ends are more important than people realize and explicitly includes Loveland in the tier of critical tight ends, though acknowledges he is in a different projection category than Bowers and McBride.

The source states a willingness to take DJ Moore 10 spots after ADP, indicating the source views him as undervalued relative to his draft position and would target him at a discount.

Davis Mattek expresses almost no interest in the Colts and is not particularly high on Daniel Jones compared to other analysts. Mattek notes that while points can come from bad teams, Jones specifically could suffer if the Colts are really bad because he won't run, unlike running quarterbacks who can still produce. Mattek identifies Jones as a later-round quarterback option available after Love, Herbert, and others are gone.

Davis Mattek projects De'Von Achane in the range of 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns, drawing a comparison to Jamal Charles's 2012 season when the Chiefs won three games without Alex Smith. Achane is the smart move over Bowers at the draft slot despite concerns about the Dolphins being a bad team; he's the prototypical player to have on a bad offense because his production doesn't depend on team quality—he will get volume regardless. Tua Tagovailoa's checkdown tendencies were very good for Achane, and Malik Willis as a running QB should make things easier for him.

Davis Mattek's quantitative model projects Denzel Boston for 132 PPR points; however, the source suspects the distribution among Cleveland Browns wide receivers (Boston, Conpsion, and Judy) will not be normal, with one likely to fall significantly lower.

Derrick Henry is presented as a draft slot decision point competing with De'Von Achane and Bowers at a specific draft position.

Gunnar Helm is Davis Mattek's second-most drafted tight end and represents the most obvious value play of the draft; he is even more obvious than Ferguson. The source attributes his earlier-round availability to a foot injury that affected his previous season.

Gunner Olszewski (Gunner Helm) was included in a mock draft team evaluated as B+ in advancement, B+ in ADP, and B− in uniqueness, indicating a balanced, consensus-aligned approach.

Davis Mattek has a hard time taking Ja'Marr Chase ahead of Bijan Robinson or Anthony Gibbs in early drafts, particularly in portfolio/multi-draft formats. Chase falls regularly in drafts and can be acquired at picks 4, 5, or even 6, making early selection inefficient when better WR options are available at picks 23-27 and early RB value is scarce. Voluntarily giving up early RB share by taking Chase early is viewed as shooting yourself in the foot.

Cannot be drafted due to 50/50 rep split with George Helani; splitting reps with Helani in July, making him unreliable for fantasy purposes.

JSN identified as needing a giga mega ceiling at wide receiver in the Badge Bros Brawl format; the source emphasizes that JSN and St. Brown will project insanely well at week 10 and are in their own elite quadrant of projection alongside Chase Puka, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson.

Davis Mattek is bullish on Jaylen Waddle, projecting a 28% target share and expecting him to come out of the gate strong with games like 147 yards. While acknowledging Waddle's injury durability concerns—getting nicked up, banged up, entering the medical tent frequently—Mattek notes he has not actually missed that many games in his career. Mattek expects Waddle to outproduce Courtland Sutton by approximately 400 yards, though Sutton may have more touchdowns. Waddle is positioned as a draft value if you believe in his durability.

Jeremiah Love is the biggest training camp value opportunity, available at picks 28-29 as a result of draft overreaction to the Cardinals' offensive coordinator change. Davis Mattek views this as a pure overreaction based on people remembering who the OC is rather than actual news, making Love a significant value pick.

Jonathan Taylor is presented as a draft slot decision point at pick 7, competing with Amon-Ra St. Brown as a potential selection in the early second round.

Currently at ADP 95 but faces significant concerns: two torn ACLs in his recent history, unproven recovery at full speed, and uncertainty about whether he can return to pre-injury form. The source expresses skepticism about assuming Brooks is 'who he was two years ago, two torn ACLs ago,' and predicts a boom-bust cycle where Brooks will be 'chased up' in ADP before 'bad news' emerges and he falls again. The source prefers Hubbard at ADP 90 for safety in the running back market.

Jordan James, the 49ers running back two, suffered a training camp injury on the first day of practice; he was playing with the second team, got hurt, limped off, and did not return to practice. The source treats this as a classic training camp red flag that immediately impacts his depth chart standing and availability.

Davis Mattek would take naked Stafford over Jordan Love because Stafford is going to throw down; Love was selected in a mock draft team evaluated as B+ in advancement and ADP, indicating a balanced, consensus-aligned approach, but Mattek prefers Stafford's upside and touchdown potential despite Love being available earlier in the draft.

Davis Mattek likes Josh Downs but views him as secondary to Tyler Warren in the Colts passing game; Downs will lose the targets-per-route battle to Warren, who is positioned as the first option in the offense, especially with Pierce out to start the year.

Davis Mattek expresses concern about Josh Jacobs facing suspension risk and potentially being cooked following a knee injury at the end of last season. Mattek groups Jacobs with Henderson, Judkins, and other mid-tier running backs in the same tier rather than elite tier, indicating diminished expectations.

Justin Jefferson identified as part of the elite six-receiver group (Chase Puka, JSN, St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson) that projects in its own quadrant at week 10; these receivers are in a separate elite projection tier from other wide receivers.

Jawan Johnson was included in a mock draft team evaluated as B+ in advancement, B+ in ADP, and B− in uniqueness, representing a balanced, consensus-aligned roster construction.

The source estimates Katron Allen has only a 5–25% probability of securing a rushing role in week one, with the most likely range being 10–15%. Despite being drafted in the fifth round, the source views this as a thin bet given the uncertainty around his role and the shakiness of the team's other running backs.

Kenneth Walker III selected as the running back pick in the Badge Bros Brawl draft strategy; the source chooses KW3 as the preferred running back option at that draft position.

Davis Mattek strongly endorses Mark Andrews as a tight end, calling him 'the dude' and indicating he should be prioritized over Travis Kelce in draft strategy.

Davis Mattek believes Matthew Stafford is way underpriced and underpropped in general. Mattek projects Stafford to throw 35+ touchdowns (he threw 40 last year) with elite receiving weapons including Puka Nacua, DeVante Adams, Debo Samuel, and Terren Ferguson. Mattek argues Stafford is worth taking naked in drafts because of his high touchdown ceiling and scoring upside despite being an older quarterback, and would take naked Stafford over Jordan Love with Watson.

Davis Mattek identifies Michael Pittman Jr. as a viable draft pick in the current round, suggesting he makes sense as a selection option alongside Xavier Worthy.

Mike Washington is presented as an infinitely better running back option than Katon Kron for this draft build, particularly given the team already has Hubard who could lose touches quickly. Washington is preferred because he will generate touches in week one, addressing the need for a player who will actually play rather than a speculative lottery ticket.

The source mentions Patrick Mahomes (referred to as 'Love') as an available quarterback option in the draft, indicating he is still on the board at this stage of the mock draft.

At ADP 79 is characterized as 'so brutal' and 'a terrible pick' by the source. Johnston's ADP has risen significantly from an earlier 130 ranking, making the current draft position unjustifiable. The source questions his role quality in Mike McDaniel's offense, noting that despite being the clear wide receiver one in the Chargers' system, his role 'is not even that good' and relies heavily on touchdown variance. The source also criticizes the fit, questioning why McDaniel would target a receiver with 'bad hands.'

The source illustrates variance in player outcomes by noting that ending up with 30% roster allocation to Rashad Penny does not work out in practice, using him as an example of a high-allocation draft strategy that failed.

Davis Mattek recommends skipping Russell Wilson as a quarterback option in draft strategy.

Davis Mattek calls taking Kelce a 'small dipperino' (downside), suggesting it's a minor mistake to draft him when Mark Andrews is available and preferred as the better tight end value.

Davis Mattek identifies Trevor Lawrence as his most drafted quarterback and projects significant upside; notes he will run a lot, showed strong performance in big moments down the stretch last year, and the Jaguars added Tyson Etienne (who can catch) and have Calvin Ridley (better than people think), creating multiple scoring opportunities.

Tucker Craft is on the physically unable to perform list, affecting his draft availability and timeline for participation in training camp and games.

Has the potential to be Gronkowski on a worse team; positioned as the first passing option on the Colts offense, especially with Pierce out to start the year. Warren will be wide open frequently due to play-action usage, which suits his skill set. He will win the targets-per-route battle against Josh Downs, who the source also likes but views as secondary to Warren in the passing game. The source compares Warren to Gronkowski as a player archetype, emphasizing that despite being the same age as Brock Bowers, Warren and Bowers are not similar players; Warren's comparison is specifically to Gronkowski's playing style and skill set.

Davis Mattek identifies Xavier Worthy as a 'pretty big dipperino' (downside) and suggests Taekwon Thornton is live to outscore him this year. Mattek notes that Worthy's injury history and the threat of Thornton taking over snaps when Worthy gets hurt creates downside risk; when Worthy gets injured, Thornton with Ken Walker threatening will be open on every play. Separately, Mattek projects Worthy for approximately 800 yards and four touchdowns, which aligns with his current draft range, and expects him to go in roughly the same ADP range next year as this year.

Davis Mattek is in on Branch as a draft target due to a clear target vacuum in the Falcons offense. Branch is positioned as a quick, explosive receiver (5'8", 177 lbs) who will have to "mess up to not be on the field" given the role opportunity. The archetype overlap—small, explosive slot receiver—matches the source's historical preferences. Concern: Stefon Diggs trade rumors could negatively impact Branch's target share if Diggs joins Atlanta.