What Happens When You Draft ONLY Your Guys In Best Ball

Analyst indicates he will not be taking Ainias Smith at the next pick.

Alvin Kamara is described as 'decrepit' in the context of the Saints' poor performance last year, suggesting his decline as a running back.

Analyst explicitly prefers Dylan Sampson over Kamara, suggesting Kamara is less attractive value at his ADP.

Mattek describes Alvin Kamara as 'decrepit' in the context of the Saints' 2024 running back room, suggesting Kamara is aging and no longer a reliable fantasy asset. Kamara is explicitly mentioned as a player Mattek prefers Dylan Sampson over in best ball formats, suggesting Sampson offers better value and upside than Kamara at their respective draft costs.

Davis Mattek's primary favorite pick; projects Jeanty to score more points than Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs, calling him "probably the best running back in the NFL." Cites college production (6.4 yards per carry, 29 rushing TDs in final season, 750+ career rushes watched extensively) and 2024 NFL receiving upside: 60-yard TD vs. Texans, 8 rec/58 yards + TD vs. Cleveland, 5 rec/47 vs. Jacksonville, 5 rec/42 vs. Indianapolis, 2 rec TDs vs. Chicago. Believes Jeanty is an above-average pass catcher who could reach 55-65 receptions with a 15% target share given weak Raiders WR room (Jaylen Nailor, Trey Tucker). Included in Mattek's ideal best ball roster alongside Kenneth Walker, Malik Nabers, and Luther Burden.

Analyst believes Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the NFL and will score more points than Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson.

Jeanty demonstrated strong receiving ability in college with 6.4 yards per carry and 29 touchdowns as a rusher in his final season, and showed he is an above-average pass catcher.

Jeanty had multiple strong receiving performances last season including a 60-yard receiving TD vs Texans, 8 rec for 58 yards and a TD vs Cleveland, 5 rec for 47 yards vs Jacksonville, 5 rec for 42 yards vs Indianapolis, and 2 receiving TDs vs Chicago Bears.

With a 15% target share, Jeanty could realistically have 55-65 receptions this season with no real limit on his receiving upside.

Ashton Jeanty was drafted as part of the analyst's best ball team, indicating confidence in his league-winner potential.

Ashton Jeanty was selected as a running back in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Analyst does not believe Bijan Robinson is a bad pick but prefers Ashton Jeanty in the first round.

BTJ has already delivered a top 10 wide receiver season, making him more likely to give another top 10 fantasy football season, though the analyst still prefers Jordan Tyson in this format.

Mattek likes Brian Thomas Jr. and thinks he's fine, but does not consider him a must-have player in the draft. BTJ has already delivered a top-10 wide receiver season, making him more likely to repeat a top-10 fantasy finish than a prospect like Jordan Tyson. However, Mattek still prefers Tyson slightly in best ball format for peak ceiling, suggesting BTJ is the safer/more proven option but Tyson has higher upside potential.

Author's most drafted stack is Caleb Williams with Rondale Moore (91 teams), which he secured in this draft, indicating strong conviction in the pairing.

Caleb Williams was drafted as part of the analyst's best ball team, indicating confidence in his league-winner potential.

Caleb Williams was selected as the quarterback in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek drafted Caleb Williams at pick 63 in his best ball league-winner strategy, pairing him with Patrick Mahomes as part of a stack designed to maximize ceiling upside. Williams is included in a Bears stack for the best ball draft, indicating confidence in his role and production in a winner-take-all format where stacking is a key strategy. Mattek also takes Williams in round 7 to prevent opponents from stacking him with Rondale Moore; the Caleb Williams and Rondale Moore stack is Mattek's most drafted stack on Flock Fantasy with 91 teams, topping the Mahomes and Rice stack (62 teams).

Analyst initially considered taking Christian McCaffrey in the first round but ultimately passed on him in favor of Ashton Jeanty.

Mattek selected McCaffrey at pick 1 despite pre-draft preference for Ashton Jeanty, calling it a necessary move to avoid "peak sloppyism." However, his true conviction is that Jeanty will outscore McCaffrey. Acknowledges McCaffrey as a viable first-round option but subordinate to Jeanty in his personal rankings.

Base rate projections for the Bears show Colston Loveland with 118 targets, equal to Rome Odunze, suggesting equal opportunity between the two.

Author explicitly hates DJ Moore as a draft target in this round.

Mattek explicitly states he hates DJ Moore among the Bears wide receivers, indicating strong negative sentiment toward the player in this draft context.

Base rate projections for the Bears show De'Andre Swift with 41 targets, significantly lower than the pass catchers.

Samuel scored 152 points last year and is now disrespected in the market because he's unsigned. He could have two good games if he signs with a team like the Chiefs, making him a valuable pick in best ball format.

Deebo Samuel was selected as a wide receiver in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Samuel scored 152 points last year at 11.7 PPG but is disrespected by the market due to unsigned status. Historical comparisons (Pierre Garçon, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, Jarvis Landry) suggest he will likely be slightly worse this year, but in best ball format only needs two good games to provide value. Potential signing with Kansas City would create a stack opportunity. Davis Mattek selected him as part of his best ball portfolio.

Sampson is undervalued and buried by the fantasy football market; he was better than remembered with 17 points in his first career game, played passing downs, and jumped Jerome Ford at points in the season.

With Jerome Ford now on the Washington Commanders, the Browns backfield is settled with Sampson as a key player, and he has contingent upside if Quintez Say Judkins doesn't return from his lower body injury.

Sampson is projected to have more targets and receptions than Quintez Say Judkins according to the analyst's quantitative model, which seems unlikely given his proven role performance and SEC Offensive Player of the Year pedigree.

Analyst prefers Dylan Sampson to Kamara and Raheem Davis, indicating he views Sampson as better value at the running back position.

Sampson is preferred over Alvin Kamara and Raheem Davis in draft value.

Sampson is described as "buried by big fantasy football right now" despite strong underlying performance. He scored 17 points in his first career game, played passing downs, and jumped Jerome Ford at points during the season. With Jerome Ford now on the Washington Commanders, the Browns backfield is "very settled" with Sampson as a lead option. Davis Mattek prefers him to Alvin Kamara and Raheem Davis, noting his SEC Offensive Player of the Year pedigree at Tennessee and strong performance when called upon should lead to more offensive opportunity. Quantitative models currently project him for fewer targets and receptions than Quentin Judkins, which Mattek views as "very unlikely."

His age 22 season was negatively impacted by a labrum tear on the third play of the game, which affected his performance that year.

Andy Reid said they had to change the way they used him, and the Chiefs fired their old wide receiver coach, suggesting offensive coaching changes rather than player capability issues.

Mattek defends Gabe Davis's age 22 season by noting he tore his labrum on the third play of the game, which explains the poor performance that year. Andy Reid stated the team had to change how they used Davis, and the Chiefs fired their old wide receiver coach in response, signaling the poor season was injury-driven and role-related rather than talent-based. This context supports Davis as a year-two improvement comp for Xavier Worthy.

The analyst is a little bit higher than the market on Geno Smith, suggesting he's undervalued as Adnan Mitchell's quarterback.

The analyst is going to be a little bit higher than the market on Geno Smith.

George Kittle coming off a torn Achilles at tight end nine pricing is insane value, with the analyst only having 3% exposure despite him being fully healthy.

The analyst is uncertain whether George Kittle or Tyler Warren is the better pick, acknowledging other tight ends like Bowers, McBride, and Loveland as alternatives.

George Kittle was selected as a tight end in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek targets George Kittle coming off a torn Achilles at tight end nine pricing, noting he only has about 3% exposure to a fully healthy Kittle at that price point, which he considers insane value. He acknowledges uncertainty about whether he'd prefer Bowers, McBride, Loveland, or Tyler Warren if he knew Kittle was healthy, but still views Kittle as a strong pick in best ball format.

Analyst does not believe Jahmyr Gibbs is a bad pick but prefers Ashton Jeanty in the first round.

Jerome Ford is no longer with the Cleveland Browns, having been traded to the Washington Commanders, which opens up the backfield for Dylan Sampson.

Ford is noted as having departed the Cleveland Browns to join the Washington Commanders, clearing the backfield for Dylan Sampson. The speaker states "Jerome Ford is now gone. Jerome Ford is on the Washington Football Commanders. So, the backfield for the Cleveland Browns is very settled," indicating Ford's departure improves Sampson's role clarity and opportunity.

Jonathan Brooks has insane upside in this format with an 18-19 touch per game role that none of the other running backs in this range have, despite limited NFL experience.

Most scenarios for Jonathan Brooks are probably disappointing, with likely time-sharing with Chuba Hubbard, losing third-down work to ETN, and potential pass protection struggles.

Jonathan Brooks was selected as a running back in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek calls Jonathan Brooks a phenomenal selection in best ball format because of his insane 18–19 touch per game role, which none of the other running backs in his range (Gainwell, Aaron Jones, JCM, Jordan Mason) possess. Brooks could easily be the starting running back for Carolina, a team that would much rather run the ball than throw with Bryce Young at quarterback. While acknowledging downside scenarios (time share with Chuba Hubbard, third-down work to ETN, pass protection struggles), Mattek emphasizes Brooks's ceiling is light years better than comparable backs.

Jordan Addison was drafted as part of the analyst's best ball team, though the analyst notes they would have preferred Byron Shelton at pick 58 and Caleb Williams at pick 63.

Mattek drafted Jordan Addison but noted he would have preferred Byron Shelton at pick 58 instead, suggesting Addison was not his ideal selection at that draft position in his best ball league-winner strategy. However, Mattek clarifies he does not dislike Addison, indicating Addison was an acceptable fallback choice.

Tyson came out very good in slot model and early dominator rating, and the analyst is higher on him than the market. He's going to a team with a quarterback and play caller the analyst is higher on than the market, making it a good situation to invest in.

Jordan Tyson came out very well in author's slot model and early dominator rating, with author being higher on him than the market.

Jordan Tyson was selected as a wide receiver in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek is happily taking Jordan Tyson in round 6 despite hating the round overall. Tyson came out very well in Mattek's slot model analysis, and his early dominator rating season is doing a ton for him. Mattek is higher on the market on Tyson and is willing to take him despite the weak round. Tyson is a prospect Mattek quite likes going to a team where he's higher than the market on both the quarterback (Tyler Shuck) and the play caller (Kellen Moore), whose play-calling history (excluding one poor Chargers season) ranks among the NFL's best. Mattek selected Tyson in round 6 specifically for peak ceiling in best ball format, acknowledging the pick may be slightly ahead of Rome Odunze or Brian Thomas Jr. but preferring Tyson's upside in this context.

Analyst indicates he will not be taking Josh Jacobs at the next pick.

Analyst loves taking Justin Jefferson and would be happy with him at the 10 slot.

Mattek lists Jefferson as a favorite first-round pick option alongside Ashton Jeanty, indicating strong conviction in his value at the position in this draft context.

Mitchell is a must-draft in this format, described as 'Devon Achane part two'—a high-upside running back in a similar situation to the Devon Achane experience that people are now waving on.

Keaton Mitchell was selected as a running back in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek emphasizes absolute necessity of drafting Keaton Mitchell in best ball format, comparing him directly to the Devon Achane experience that people are now waving on. Mitchell is positioned as a high-upside running back in a format that rewards bimodal hero running back strategies.

The analyst is consistently higher than the market on Kellen Moore, noting that his one season with the Chargers makes him look worse than he is. For most of his play-calling career, he has looked like one of the absolute best play callers in the NFL with finishes of 6th, 17th, 1st, 4th, 21st, and 7th in points.

Author is consistently higher than the market on Kellen Moore, suggesting he is undervalued.

Mattek is consistently higher than the market on Kellen Moore as Saints offensive coordinator. Mattek argues Moore's play-calling career has been elite except for one poor season with the Chargers; his historical finishes are 6th, 17th, 1st, 4th, 21st, and 7th in points. Mattek believes the Saints' offensive situation will improve significantly this year with better quarterback play (Shuck over Rattler) and a healthier running back room, making Moore's scheme more effective.

Analyst considers Kenneth Walker one of his favorite starts in fantasy football and believes he can provide legendary upside.

Kenneth Walker averaged 4.2 receptions per game last season, which exceeds the threshold of 4 receptions per game needed for legendary upside seasons according to research.

Walker now plays with the best quarterback and best offense of his career, and despite having only 19 receptions in college, he proved he could be a better receiver in the NFL.

Kenneth Walker was selected as a running back in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek's second-favorite running back pick after Jeanty. Highlights Walker's receiving upside despite 2024 season obscuring his talent: averaged 4.2 receptions per game, which exceeds the 4 rec/game threshold Pat Corain's research identifies as necessary for legendary upside seasons. Notes Walker now plays with "by far and away the best quarterback, the best offense of his career" and proved he can be a pass-catcher in the NFL despite only 19 college receptions, suggesting significant untapped receiving potential. Included in Mattek's ideal best ball roster.

Analyst indicates he will not be taking Ladd McConkey at the next pick.

Author has 23% of Luther Burden and is very confident he is a better player than Rondale Moore, citing his early declare status and superior college production metrics.

Luther Burden posted 2.78 yards per route run in his rookie season and finished as WR1 in week 17 after scaling to full-time snaps, significantly outperforming his college production.

Luther Burden was drafted as part of the analyst's best ball team, indicating confidence in his league-winner potential.

Luther Burden was selected as a wide receiver in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek has 23% ownership of Burden and is steadfast in belief that Burden is a better player than Rondale Moore based on college metrics: Burden had 2.7 yards per route run in college vs. Moore's 2.5; in his rookie season, Burden posted 2.78 yards per route run. After getting 50% of snaps post-bye week, Burden scaled to full-time and finished as WR1 in week 17. Base rate projections show 113 targets for Burden vs. 118 for Rondale Moore. Included in Mattek's ideal best ball roster.

Author is confident Malik Nabers can provide real wide receiver one upside and is willing to take him in a winner-take-all contest despite his knee injury concerns.

Analyst is confident Malik Nabers can provide real wide receiver one upside and is willing to take him in a winner-take-all contest.

Analyst is not as worried about Malik Nabers' knee injury (torn ACL and lateral meniscus repair) in a winner-take-all contest, despite acknowledging the complexity of the injury.

Author is not nearly as worried about Malik Nabers' knee injury (torn ACL and lateral meniscus repair) in a winner-take-all contest context, despite acknowledging the complexity of the injury.

Malik Nabers was drafted as part of the analyst's best ball team, indicating confidence in his league-winner potential.

Malik Nabers was selected as a wide receiver in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek selects Nabers over ETN in a winner-take-all contest, prioritizing WR1 upside. Addresses injury concerns (torn ACL and lateral meniscus repair requiring second surgery) but states he is "not nearly as worried" about his knee despite common narratives about it being "cooked." Emphasizes that in a single-entry, high-stakes contest, the upside of real WR1 production outweighs injury risk management. Included in Mattek's ideal best ball roster.

Andrews is disrespected based on situation; despite a bad end to last season, he scored 27 points in week three and had multiple double-digit games. With Lamar Jackson returning as QB and weak backup TE options (Durham Smythe, Josh Oliver, Matthew Hibner), Andrews could score 10 touchdowns in a similar configuration to when he's done so before.

The analyst is kind of interested in Mark Andrews as a tight end option in this draft context.

Mark Andrews was selected as a tight end in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek views Mark Andrews as disrespected by the market despite solid production last season. Andrews scored 27 points in week three, 16-point, 10-point, and 15-point games, though finished poorly when Lamar Jackson was not the quarterback. His yards per route run has been above 2.0 every year of his career except last year at 1.3, suggesting regression was scheme-related rather than talent-based. Ravens backup tight ends (Durham Smythe, Josh Oliver, Matthew Hibner) pose no competition for targets. With weak Ravens wide receivers and Lamar Jackson's expected pass attempts, Andrews can score 10 touchdowns in a similar configuration to past seasons.

MarShawn Lloyd is described as 'the odds-on favorite to be the running back two' for the Green Bay Packers, assuming his body stays healthy.

Mattek identifies Lloyd as the odds-on favorite to be the Green Bay Packers' running back two, contingent on health. Lloyd is selected as a best ball target with upside tied to his projected role in the Packers backfield.

The analyst reaches egregiously on Mahomes in this best ball format, believing it makes sense to reach on your quarterback in a league-winner focused format.

Patrick Mahomes was selected as a quarterback in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Davis Mattek reaches egregiously on Patrick Mahomes in round 7 of his best ball draft, arguing the format justifies reaching on a quarterback. Mattek views Mahomes as his preferred target for this strategy, believing best ball rewards ceiling plays and quarterback scarcity/upside. Mahomes is also included in a Chiefs stack with Caleb Williams, signaling confidence in his role and production in a winner-take-all format where stacking is a key strategy.

Author has a slight preference for Rashee Rice over Malik Nabers because Rice is currently less injured, though he is still dealing with an injury.

Mattek has a slight preference for Rashee Rice over Malik Nabers because Rice is currently injured but not as severely as Nabers. This injury context makes Rice a more attractive option in the speaker's view compared to Nabers' knee injury situation.

Base rate projections for the Bears show Rome Odunze with 118 targets, equal to Colston Loveland, suggesting equal opportunity between the two.

Rome Odunze is mentioned as a comparable option to Jordan Tyson in this draft round, though the analyst prefers Tyson.

Mattek considers Rome Odunze as an alternative to Jordan Tyson in round 6, suggesting Odunze is a reasonable pick at that stage. However, Mattek prefers Tyson for peak ceiling in best ball format, implying Odunze is a more conventional/safer choice but lacks the upside Mattek is targeting.

Author is below market on Rondale Moore and prefers Luther Burden, noting Moore was not an early declare and has inferior college production metrics (2.5 yards per route run).

Rondale Moore was part of a 91-team stack with Williams, indicating significant ownership in best ball formats.

Mattek is below market on Rondale Moore and believes Luther Burden is a better player. Moore was not an early declare from college, and his college yards per route run (2.5) is lower than Burden's (2.7). Burden's rookie season yards per route run of 2.78 significantly outpaced Moore's college production. Base rate projections show 118 targets for Moore vs. 113 for Burden, but Mattek remains steadfast that Burden is the superior player. Mattek expresses disinterest, stating he would happily give Moore to whoever wants him.

Spencer Rattler's poor performance with the Saints (1-7 record) is contrasted with Tyler Shuck's better performance (5-4), suggesting the Saints' situation improved with the quarterback change.

Ferguson is a preferred tight end pick in winner-take-all best ball format, with the analyst planning a dedicated 13-minute video covering every aspect of his profile.

Terrance Ferguson was selected in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Ferguson is a preferred tight end target in winner-take-all best ball formats. Davis Mattek states "I would really like to take Terrance Ferguson in this format" and ultimately selects him, indicating strong conviction in his upside. Mattek is building a dedicated 13-minute video on the Mattek Fantasy Football Channel covering "every single aspect of his profile, every single aspect of what he can do," underscoring his confidence in Ferguson's best ball potential.

At this draft range, Hunter has a better range of outcomes than other available wide receivers like Khalil Shakir or Amari Cooper Jr.

Hunter has the best range of outcomes among wide receivers in his draft range in best ball format where ceiling matters more than floor. Davis Mattek states he's "not sure what wide receiver has a better range of outcomes than Travis Hunter" and explicitly rejects the notion that Khalil Shakir or Amari Cooper Jr. have superior upside.

Thornton scored 71 points last year with three touchdowns, and if he repeats that performance this year, he would be valuable in most formats.

Analyst targets Tyquan Thornton as a value pick, noting he scored 71 points last year with three touchdowns and would be a happy selection if he repeats that production.

Davis Mattek targets Thornton as a best ball value, noting he scored 71 points last year with three touchdowns. Mattek believes if Thornton "runs back 71 points with three touchdowns again this year," he's a happy outcome in most formats. Thornton's ceiling is highlighted by his ability to spike 13 points in a single week, which Mattek references as league-winning potential in best ball.

Author quite likes Tyson Bagent as a draft target.

The analyst believes Xavier Worthy could be a lot better than remembered, noting his age 21 rookie season was better than people recall. His age 22 season was impacted by a labrum tear on the third play of the game, and Andy Reid changed how they used him with a new wide receiver coach.

The analyst believes Xavier Worthy is one of the better picks on the board and would rather have him than Chris Godwin, citing the Chiefs' offensive coaching overhaul as a positive sign for his future.

Xavier Worthy was selected as a wide receiver in the best ball draft where the analyst drafted only his preferred players.

Mattek defends Xavier Worthy as a breakout candidate, arguing his age 21 rookie season was better than remembered and citing smart analysts backing the situation. Worthy's closest comps (JSN, Rondale Moore, Gabe Davis, Robert Woods, Stills, Kenny Britt) mostly improved in year two, with Ruggs as a fair bust comp but Worthy's upside potential emphasized. Mattek believes Worthy has much better things coming based on the Chiefs' offensive coaching overhaul—new running back coach, wide receiver coach, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy returning—signaling the front office identified the issue as offensive play-calling, not personnel. Mattek would rather have Worthy than Chris Godwin and considers him one of the better picks on the board.