NFC South Breakdown + Skat Talks to Jason & Mike - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/21

Alvin Kamara has signed with the Saints and will be involved in the backfield, but the source indicates that Travis Henry Jr. is expected to retain the primary workhorse role. The source notes that Kamara's presence will limit Henry Jr.'s ceiling but does not provide specific usage projections for Kamara himself.

Baker Mayfield dealt with significant injuries last year that affected his performance: sprained MCL and PCL in week two, bicep contusion and tendon issue that left his throwing arm numb at times, and an AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder. He has a pattern of forcing his way back on the field when his body cannot properly play the position, similar to how he lost his job in Cleveland. If he had taken a week off, the year might have gone differently. Despite these issues, the source is willing to give him a mulligan on the year and try again. He remains the most optimistic quarterback situation in the NFC South in terms of fantasy potential.

Baker Mayfield is part of a potential Buccaneers bounce-back narrative alongside Rachaad White, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin; the source believes there is opportunity for Tampa's offense to return to relevance with a new offensive coordinator (Zach Robinson replacing Grisard) and improved offensive line health.

Bijon Robinson is characterized as a fantastic running back with no qualms about his situation despite historical variables (Tyler Algier, quarterback changes). The source notes Robinson benefits from a quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who targets the running back position more than any quarterback in history, guaranteeing high checkdown volume. However, the source ranks him below Jahmyr Gibbs due to inferior offensive scoring environment (Falcons 37 total TDs vs. Lions 57), lower sportsbook odds for double-digit touchdowns (outside top five), and the loss of David Montgomery's touchdown competition. The source acknowledges Robinson's superior build for a heavier workload as a logical reason to prefer him over Gibbs if injury risk is a concern.

Bijan is built for a heavier workload and functions as the foundation of the Falcons offense similar to McCaffrey; last year he accounted for 41% of Atlanta's total team yards, positioning him as a potential RB1 if the Falcons offense improves with Tua and Stefanski's system.

Bijan has struggled significantly against the Minnesota Vikings, scoring only 4.3 fantasy points in week nine and 5.4 points in championship weekend last year, indicating a potential matchup concern.

Bryce Young's completion percentage has improved each year (60% to 61% to 64%), touchdown passes have risen (11 to 15 to 23), and rushing attempts have increased. He progressed every season entering year four at age 25. Last year he showed clutch throws, big plays, and sustained drives; he won seven close games, demonstrating quarterback ability to handle end-of-game situations. One game featured ~450 passing yards, showing capability. Vegas lines project him at 20.5 passing touchdowns and 3,000 yards, but the source projects him at 3,400-3,450 passing yards, suggesting upside over market expectations. A step forward in year two of the system is reasonable despite a difficult first-place schedule (Denver, Seattle, Philadelphia).

Bucky Irving said he will be good to go for training camp, clearing any injury concerns heading into the season.

Bucky Irving is an extremely talented running back, but everything around him screams bust as a fantasy football pick. He had no carries inside the five last year, raising questions about whether the team still feels that way. The addition of Kenneth Gainwell adds intrigue and competition to the backfield. Irving scares the source. While he will have every opportunity and the team wants him to run away with the job as he did as a rookie, the challenge is whether he can stay healthy and maintain his role if he gets banged up. The source is concerned about the backfield situation and whether Irving can secure his role.

Chris Godwin is a tried-and-true wide receiver for the Buccaneers who could easily come in as second in targets, maybe even first. The source thinks there is a chance Godwin is the number-one target on the offense, creating uncertainty about target distribution in the Bucs passing game with Emeka Buika, Jalen McMillan, Hearst, and Tez Johnson also in the mix.

Chris Godwin is part of a potential Buccaneers bounce-back narrative; the source believes there is opportunity for Tampa's offense to return to relevance with a new offensive coordinator and improved offensive line health.

Chuba Hubbard is a solid but not spectacular running back who produces fantasy value with enough volume. The source views him as a pretty bad pick this year in fantasy, lacking upside. In the seventh round, he feels like a pick that lacks upside. The source's best-case scenario is three or four solid games to start the season before the committee shifts toward Jonathan Brooks. Hubbard had zero runs of 15+ yards last year. The source would rather sacrifice his pick for other assets like rookie wide receivers (Jordan Tyson, Makai Lemon, Marvin Harrison), middle-round tight ends (Tucker Kraft), or other high-upside players. While he could be a flex play needed a couple times during the year, the upside is not there for anything special. He was RB13 in 2024 with Canales but didn't look that good on film last year and was losing reps after Rico Dowdle's injury.

DJ Moore is referenced as a historical comparison point; the source notes that Moore, like Terry McLaurin, was subject to quarterback concerns ('oh, I wish they had a quarterback'), but Drake London is positioned as superior to Moore and immune to such concerns.

David Montgomery is noted as the previous season's touchdown competition for Bijon Robinson in the Falcons offense; the source states 'David Montgomery was more involved, took more touchdowns,' indicating Montgomery's departure creates additional scoring opportunity for Robinson.

Derek Carr's passing yard projection has adjusted upward and is now tied with Justin Herbert; the source attributes this to Kellen Moore's offensive scheme and a favorable schedule. Post-bye week last year, Carr would have thrown for 4,400 yards; with a nicer schedule ahead and rookie wide receiver Jordan Tyson added to the roster alongside Michael Olave, Carr has significant upside potential. The source notes that having two true number-one wide receivers is a gift very few quarterbacks have, positioning Carr similarly to Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott in terms of receiving weapons.

Drake London is positioned as immune to quarterback concerns that typically plague receivers in weak passing situations; the source credits his superior talent relative to historical comparables like DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin, noting he is 'a better player than those guys.'

Drake London is positioned as a tier-one wide receiver prospect immune to quarterback concerns; the source argues he is a better player than DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin, comparable to Garrett Wilson. With Kyle Pitts as the only target competition and a projected 30% target share, the source contends it is analytically very difficult for him not to finish as a wide receiver one. London's 2023 production with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix (both suboptimal) demonstrates his ability to produce regardless of quarterback quality.

Drake London is expected to be the primary target for Tua in the Falcons offense, with the source noting that as a defensive coordinator, the strategy would be to focus on stopping London, suggesting limited offensive diversity and concentration of targets.

Eli Stowers has not generated positive headlines during training camp; the source reports that he has not been going very well and has received only negative reports, which is concerning for a raw prospect new to the tight end position who needs strong rookie training camp reports to suggest year-one impact potential.

Garrett Wilson is cited as a tier-comparable to Drake London; the source states 'I think he's in that tier of Garrett Wilson' and notes that Wilson, despite playing with a suboptimal quarterback, was also 'kind of, as far as draft cost, immune' to quarterback concerns, similar to London's positioning.

Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked higher than Bijon Robinson in the source's draft hierarchy, with the source stating 'Gibbs is a much better pick than Bijon in fantasy' and 'I don't think it's that close.' The source cites superior offensive scoring environment (Lions 57 total TDs vs. Falcons 37 last year), higher sportsbook odds for double-digit touchdowns (Gibbs had the highest likelihood), and the removal of David Montgomery's touchdown competition. The source acknowledges Gibbs' slightly undersized frame relative to his projected workload as a potential injury concern, but maintains the offensive upside and scoring opportunities justify the ranking.

Gibbs' slightly undersized frame raises injury concerns given the heavy workload he's receiving, which is cited as a logical reason to prefer Bijan Robinson despite Gibbs' superior scoring ceiling.

If both Gibbs and Bijan remain healthy and are compared purely on fantasy scoring potential, Gibbs is viewed as unstoppable and will almost certainly get double-digit touchdowns, making him the higher-scoring option despite Bijan's role advantages.

Jalen Coker signed a contract with the Panthers and is an ancillary target option beyond Ted McMillan in an offense with low passing yardage from Bryce Young. Coker is going around the 12th round and might be a flex play. He is at least interesting as a flyer with no downside risk compared to McMillan's upside, though there is a chance targets are consolidated to McMillan and Coker.

Jonathan Brooks is a second-round draft pick and very talented running back who tore his ACL back-to-back and is essentially a rookie in year three. He was an 86th percentile SPARQ score, better than Jahmyr Gibbs. The source does not expect Brooks to take over the entire backfield immediately in week one; rather, he will be part of a committee with Chuba Hubbard. The first three matchups (Chicago, Atlanta, Cleveland) present opportunities for Brooks to establish himself, but the team has financially invested in and respects Chuba Hubbard, so Brooks will be a piece of the puzzle, not the whole solution early on.

Jordan Tyson, a top-ten draft pick, is positioned as a true number-one wide receiver alongside Michael Olave in the Saints offense under Kellen Moore. The source acknowledges some hesitation due to Tyson's injury history and the younger quarterback situation, but frames this as a range of outcomes rather than a slam dunk. If Derek Carr hits his 4,500-yard ceiling, Tyson is positioned to significantly outperform his draft cost. The source notes that Tyson was a top-ten pick and should be considered in the same tier as elite receiving duos like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Kenneth Gainwell was brought in to the Buccaneers and adds intrigue to the backfield situation. Bowles indicated early in March that Gainwell is the 1B to Bucky Irving's 1A, not just backup territory. Gainwell is currently better than the departed Rashad White, making the competition for carries more difficult. However, the source believes Irving will have every opportunity and the team wants him to run away with the job as he did as a rookie.

Kenny Gainwell is positioned as the 1B to Rachaad White's 1A in the Buccaneers backfield, not in pure backup territory; Todd Bowles indicated Gainwell is the 1B. Gainwell has a history of endearing himself to rosters and potentially taking over if the lead back gets injured or underperforms.

Kyle Pitts is identified as the only target competition for Drake London in the Falcons offense, implying limited role overlap and supporting London's projected 30% target share.

Kyle Pitts is mentioned as a potential target option for Tua alongside Bijan Robinson, though the source questions whether Pitts could finish as the number one tight end at his position, suggesting limited upside despite being the team's top tight end.

Makai Lemon said he will be 100 percent ready to go for the start of training camp after dealing with a hamstring injury at OTAs; the source notes that any missed reps as a rookie is a negative, so his clearance is positive news.

Michael Penix Jr. is listed at 6'3" and is one of two quarterbacks (alongside Tua) expected to see starting time for the Atlanta Falcons; the source indicates both are likely to start at different points in the season.

Mike Evans is no longer with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, representing a significant loss for the offense. He was a stabilizing force for the team, and losing him is not good for the offense. His departure creates questions about who will step up in the wide receiver room, including Emeka Buika, Jalen McMillan, Hearst (rookie), Tez Johnson, and Chris Godwin.

Mike Evans is part of a potential Buccaneers bounce-back narrative; the source believes there is opportunity for Tampa's offense to return to relevance with a new offensive coordinator and improved offensive line health.

Kenny Gainwell is currently better than Rachaad White, creating increased competition for the Buccaneers backfield; Gainwell is positioned as the 1B to Bucky's 1A rather than pure backup territory, per Todd Bowles.

Rachaad White suffered a foot and shoulder injury last season that derailed his performance; he was never the same after the injuries and did not maintain his early-season pace.

Rachaad White presents a boom-bust profile: undersized, fragile, coming off injury, and a fourth-round pick in a backfield where the team brought in other running backs. The source notes everything about White right now screams bust, though he retains upside if healthy and the offense bounces back.

Rachaad White's fantasy relevance pathway as a rookie was not as a decent RB2 but as a breakout RB1 heavily involved in the passing game; he was on pace for 382 opportunities, 80 receptions, and over 1,000 rushing yards before injury derailed his season.

Rachaad White was drafted as RB7 last year and the source believed that was too high; he is no longer being drafted at that inflated level. If he bounces back healthy with Tristan Werfels healthy and returns to his rookie form as a pass-catching back, he becomes a fantastic pick at his current draft position.

Terry McLaurin is referenced as a historical comparison point; the source notes that McLaurin, like DJ Moore, was subject to quarterback concerns ('oh, I wish they had a quarterback'), but Drake London is positioned as superior to McLaurin and immune to such concerns.

Tua Tagovailoa is listed at 6'1" and is one of two quarterbacks (alongside Penix) expected to see starting time for the Atlanta Falcons; the source notes 'probably both of them at some point during the year,' indicating a potential platoon or transition scenario.

Tua was very poor at times last year and is described as head-scratchingly bad; while he is an upgrade over Marcus Mariota, he is not expected to elevate the Falcons offense to a top-10 unit, limiting upside for Atlanta's skill position players.