AFC South Breakdown + Booty Scootin' Bhayshul Tuten - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/9

Alec Pierce received a $114M contract (4 years, $84M guaranteed), signaling the Colts expect him to take on more than just stretching the field. However, the source is skeptical Pierce will be very good for fantasy football, believing he will stay in his current role of stretching the field and catching deep bombs despite the team's public statements that he will handle way more targets. The speaker notes Pierce had high-volume target weeks (13, 10, 8 targets) during the season, suggesting he could handle more responsibility, but remains skeptical he will be a massive producer.

The source is skeptical of Tuten's hype despite a fan club forming around him. He averaged only 3.7 yards per carry last year and faces competition from LaQuint Allen and Justice Hill on third down. At RB22 in the fifth round (ADP), he's a mid-round dart throw on a player the source is not 100% certain will deliver, with the source leaning toward David Montgomery as the safer choice between the two.

CJ Stroud is viewed as a game manager at this point. He averaged 13 fantasy points per game in year two and 14.9 last year with a mid-60s completion percentage. He only had three top-12 finishes in each of the last two years and doesn't generate prolific weeks. The source notes that taking fewer chances is probably what the team needs most, which limits his upside.

The source indicates Calvin Ridley was not the focal point the Titans needed in their offense, grouping him with Io Manor and DK Metcalf as role players rather than focal points of the offense.

The source identifies Cam Ward as having significant upside for 2024. Ward ranked number one in the NFL in completion percentage above expectation in the red zone, indicating strong efficiency in high-leverage situations. Despite playing the toughest schedule in the NFL last year, Ward improved over the back half of the season, demonstrating developmental trajectory. The source believes Ward has the potential for a big step forward this year, particularly with the addition of Carnell Tate as a focal point receiver in the Titans' offense.

Carnell Tate, the fourth overall pick in the draft, is identified as the primary value play and real focal point of the Titans' offense, unlike Calvin Ridley, Io Manor, and DK Metcalf who are role players. The speaker ranks Tate at WR27 (moved up live), projects him for 7 touchdowns, and states: 'If I leave a draft and I have Carnell Tate, I'm excited.' The speaker made a live adjustment upward, increasing his target percentage, believing Tate must have way more targets than Wandale Robinson.

Dalton Schultz continues to be the second-highest target earner for the Texans, which the source views as suboptimal for an offense to thrive. Having a tight end as your second target is not ideal for offensive production, limiting Schultz's upside in a pass-heavy role.

Daniel Jones is recovering well from his Achilles injury, has been at practice and participated in everything. In 12 starts with the Colts, he was a prolific pocket passer (not a runner like with the Giants) on pace for 4,400 yards and 28 touchdowns with only 6 picks on 516 passing attempts and 71% completion percentage. He was electric with Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman. The source is optimistic about his return and believes his presence will help open up the running game for Jonathan Taylor by preventing defenses from stacking the box.

The source is increasingly optimistic on David Montgomery for Houston. He will carry a lion's share of the backfield as a three-down back, and the source projects 12 touchdowns as reasonable. Montgomery is a volume guy who will benefit from Houston's elite defense keeping them in leads late in games, allowing him to salt the clock away. At 29 years old and in year nine, he's the exact profile the source usually bets against, but the source believes he can sustain a featured role for 14 quality games. He had 13 touchdowns and 1,000 yards in 2023 when he finished as RB13.

Jaden Higgins passed the eyeball test but was disappointed in his utilization as a rookie; he didn't get as many snaps as expected and the team preferred veteran Christian Kirk. The source is hopeful that in year two, with experience, Higgins will play 85+ percent of snaps on the outside. Houston is favored in six of the first seven games, including a juicy early schedule against Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Giants.

Jonathan Taylor will benefit from Daniel Jones returning to the Colts; when Jones was removed and the team had no deep threat, defenses could stack the box and stop Taylor. With Jones back, the source is more optimistic Taylor will get better offensive support and not face the same defensive stacking. However, the source expresses concern about Taylor's fragility from a fantasy perspective, noting the Colts' inconsistent record (9-8, 9-8, 8-9, 4-12 in recent years) and 8.5-win projection. The speaker suggests if the Colts lose 10 games, Taylor owners will be unhappy, and questions whether RB3 is the right spot given the team's volatility. Taylor is currently drafted as RB3.

Josh Downs is expected to take over the Michael Pittman role with increased outside routes; the team has said he will be more involved with more outside routes than he's ever had before, positioning him as a key target in the Colts' passing game. The source indicates Downs will receive more outside routes than ever before and will have increased opportunity in the Colts offense, though notes Downs has never played outside routes at a high level before.

Despite all the excitement and hype, Luther Burden is going into year two and the source questions whether he will turn into a breakout. The source prefers Parker Washington in a similar situation, noting that while Burden has excitement and draft capital, Washington has more proven production over a longer period and is a better value play.

Michael Pittman was a target hog for the Colts but is now gone; Josh Downs is expected to take over the Michael Pittman role with more outside routes than he's ever had before, though the team hasn't explicitly said Downs is taking over the role.

Nico Collins is very good but will be capped by limited passing volume from CJ Stroud and Houston's elite defense. Stroud averaged 13 fantasy points per game in year two and 14.9 last year with a mid-60s completion percentage and only three top-12 finishes in each of the last two years. Collins will get more top-12 weekly finishes than explosive weeks, and the source wishes he was on a team with a worse defense to unlock his upside.

The source is getting closer to Parker Washington over Luther Burden despite Burden's hype. Washington's production was solid over a long period last year, especially after the bye week, and he plays the slot position which has been a fantasy dominator. The source notes that Washington is going into year four on a 13-4 team and may be a steal due to lack of name recognition compared to Burden, who has more excitement and draft capital but less proven production over a longer period.

The source expresses concern about Tony Pollard's fantasy outlook despite his four consecutive 1,000-rushing-yard seasons. Pollard finished as RB23 last year with only 5 touchdowns despite 283 opportunities and playing all 17 games, earning the label 'fantasy vegetables' from the speaker. At age 29, the speaker believes Pollard is not getting better as a player and is getting worse. The speaker projects him to finish in the RB23 range even if everything goes well, noting the Titans' offense ranked 30th in points per game and 31st in yards per game last year.

Tyler Warren was electric with Daniel Jones in the Colts' passing game and is positioned as a key target. The source highlights Warren as a late fifth-round pick with exciting draft cost, comparing the Colts' receiving setup to the old Raiders with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro, casting Warren in the Waller role as a tight end with significant upside. The source notes the Colts cannot live and die on Warren alone in the passing game, implying he will be a significant part of the offense.

The source projects Wandale Robinson for 112–115 targets in Tennessee, down from 140 last year, ranking him outside the top 30 wide receivers. Despite finishing as WR19 last year with 1,000 receiving yards, Robinson had only 35% consistency (graded D), meaning he mattered in fantasy just 35% of the time. The speaker struggles to see Robinson being very relevant for fantasy in Tennessee going forward, even acknowledging he could be a good number two receiver on the team.