AFC North Breakdown + Don’t Be Surprised! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/7

Aiyuk has been posting increasingly erratic social media content and has publicly stated he wants to be released by the 49ers to sign with the Washington Commanders to play with Jaden Daniels, his best friend. However, the 49ers can place him on the left squad list, which allows the team to keep him on the roster without paying him or counting him against the cap, giving San Francisco complete control over his situation and preventing him from playing elsewhere. Despite these off-field issues, George Kittle noted that Aiyuk is running faster than he ever ran before his injury, suggesting he retains his athletic ability.

Brenton Strange has a contract with the Jaguars and will be part of the receiving corps alongside Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and other weapons in Liam Cohen's offense.

Calvin Austin left the Steelers, vacating targets in the receiving corps.

The source is buying into another year of Derrick Henry for Baltimore despite age concerns, citing his 27 carries inside the five as an outlier and his elite goal-line role. Henry is described as an outlier in terms of red zone workload, and the source would draft him given the Ravens' projected 11.5 win total and sixth easiest schedule.

DK Metcalf was bad last year for the Steelers despite being paid well; he was a major target for the offense but did not produce fantasy value, contributing to the Steelers' 26th-ranked offense in yards per game. Ranked outside the top 30 in fantasy points in half-point PPR; the source has Metcalf ahead of Michael Pittman in total fantasy points due to more touchdown opportunity, but neither are viewed as primary targets in the draft. Aaron Rodgers' clean pocket 20-plus air yard throws were "really bad" on tape, suggesting limited deep-ball opportunity despite Metcalf's receiving ability.

Rookie Fernando Mendoza is not taking first-team reps in the Raiders' offseason program, with Kirk Cousins getting all the starter work. However, the expectation is that Mendoza will eventually get his opportunity once the team loses games and the groundswell builds for the rookie to enter.

Despite Brandon Aiyuk's off-field issues, George Kittle noted that Aiyuk is running faster than he ever ran before his injury, suggesting he retains his athletic ability and will eventually find a way back onto a football field.

Ja'Marr Chase is a key part of the Bengals' elite passing game with Joe Burrow. The source notes that Burrow is awesome when he has a healthy Chase and Tee Higgins, and Cincinnati's defense was one of the worst ever, forcing the offense to keep the pedal to the floor and score tons of points. The Bengals have the third easiest schedule and are favored in 15 of 17 games.

Jalen Warren is the first Pittsburgh player off the board in fantasy in the sixth round and will receive backfield targets in the Steelers' new pass-heavy offense under Brian Angelico. Workload has increased year over year, averaging 16 opportunities per game last year. However, red zone conversion is a concern: he converted only 4 of 14 red zone carries (29%), whereas Rico Dowdle converted 6 of 8 (75%) in Carolina. The source favors Warren over Dowdle due to Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy's prior connection and Rodgers' preference for quick-step drop timing and rhythm with a reliable veteran.

Joe Burrow is not being overdrafted despite the Bengals' strong offensive outlook. The source notes that Burrow is awesome when he plays and has a healthy Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cincinnati's defense was one of the worst ever, forcing the offense to keep the pedal to the floor and score tons of points. The Bengals have the third easiest schedule and are favored in 15 of 17 games. Zach Taylor is in his eighth year as head coach—the longest-tenured in the AFC North—and won't slow Burrow down. The source has Burrow ahead of Lamar Jackson in six-point PPR scoring.

Justice Hill remains the insurance back for Baltimore despite not having had a key to the building in five years; he is described as someone who "just waits for somebody to open the front door and he slips in." He is the backup to Derrick Henry.

Kenny Gainwell led the Steelers in receiving targets last year, which is problematic given the team paid for DK Metcalf and other weapons; he is departing the team, leaving significant vacated targets for the 2024 offense.

Kirk Cousins took all the first-team reps in the Raiders' offseason practices, establishing himself as the clear starter ahead of rookie Fernando Mendoza.

The source is fully in on Lamar Jackson for a bounce-back fantasy season. Last year he was injured and missed four games, was tough after week nine, and dropped from 25 fantasy points per game in 2024 to 16 per game last year—his lowest since his rookie year. He had only 349 rushing yards last year and his yards per attempt were way down. However, with the Ravens' 11.5 win total and improved offense under Declan Doyle, Lamar is being drafted in the fourth round—the cheapest ADP he's been in five years—making him a value play.

LaQuint Allen should be the third-down back for the Jaguars; the team likes him and wants to use him in that role.

Mark Andrews' statistical output has declined year over year: 11 fantasy points per game to 9 to 6. He is still a red zone threat but only had 70 targets over the last two years. However, he is free or undrafted in many leagues and could easily score 10 touchdowns this year, making him a viable late-round option. In games without a receiving touchdown last year, he averaged 4.2 fantasy points per game. Isaiah Likely is gone and the Ravens brought in Smythe, so Andrews remains the primary tight end.

The Steelers traded for and paid Michael Pittman, signaling a shift toward a more pass-heavy offense under new offensive coordinator Brian Angelico; Pittman should get a ton of targets given the vacated receiving production from Kenny Gainwell and Johnny Smith. The source projects Pittman to lead the Steelers in targets because Aaron Rodgers' tape shows he had to check everything down; clean pocket deep throws were very poor, so possession-type receivers are what the offense really needs.

Parker Washington is a slot wide receiver in Liam Cohen's offense; Cohen has a strong historical track record with slot receivers, and Washington should benefit from this proven connection. The source notes Cohen's slot receiver numbers are "unbelievable."

Pat Freiermuth is the biggest sleeper on the Steelers; with Kenny Gainwell and Johnny Smith departing and vacating targets, Freiermuth could emerge as a touchdown machine. The source would pick him as a tight end most likely to have 10 touchdowns out of nowhere this year. However, Freiermuth had only 54 targets last year in the Steelers offense, down significantly from prior seasons of 98 and multiple seasons in the 70s, reflecting overall target scarcity in an Aaron Rodgers offense projected to average only 14-15 fantasy points per game.

Patrick Mahomes is training towards being cleared for 11-on-11 work at the start of training camp, per Albert Breer, indicating he is on track to be fully healthy for the season.

Rashad Bateman is the wide receiver two on the Ravens and remains under contract for the next four years with continued contract extensions despite never coming through with production. New draft picks Jacoby Lane and Elijah Surratt are fighting to overtake Bateman, not to take over for Zay Flowers. In his nine healthy games last year, Bateman was on pace for 60 targets and 30 catches.

Rico Dowdle converted 6 of 8 red zone opportunities in Carolina last year (75%), significantly better than Jalen Warren's 29%. He played with Mike McCarthy during his breakout 1,000-yard rushing season when he took the job from Ezekiel Elliott. Dowdle is solid in the passing game with fine hands and a 77%+ catch rate over the past three years (yards per catch: 8.5, 6.4, 7.6). The source leans Dowdle in the draft based on ADP discount and the possibility he becomes the first and second down guy with goal-line work, still getting plenty of targets under Rodgers.

Roman Wilson is competing with second-round pick Jeremy Bernard for receiving snaps in the Steelers offense.

The source is softening a negative stance on Zay Flowers and views him as a strong value in the fifth round. Flowers' target share has increased each of the past three seasons and reached 28% last year—an elite target share. Lamar Jackson had 9% of his attempts as end zone attempts (highest in NFL) and likes Flowers. While Flowers finished as WR7 last year, he is being drafted as a mid-WR2, potentially a WR3 in the fifth round. The source views the offensive coordinator change (Declan Doyle, Ben Johnson protégé) as positive and notes Flowers will clearly be the number one option in the passing game. Red zone concerns exist: only 11 total red zone targets with one touchdown, but the talent and target share trajectory are compelling.