NFC East Breakdown + Late Round Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/23

Drafted by the Commanders in the third round. JJ Zachariason notes "we like to film" on him, indicating positive film evaluation. Part of the Commanders' offensive overhaul to replace departed veterans like Debo Samuel, Zach Ertz, and Austin Ekeler.

Antonio Williams was drafted by the Commanders in the third round and is a player the speaker and team 'kind of like to film.' He's part of the Commanders' offensive overhaul, replacing stopgap guys from last year. The speaker expresses positive sentiment about his film and potential.

Antonio Williams, a third-round wide receiver with high draft capital, played 93% of his routes from the slot in college. While slot production can translate, the concern is whether he'll be the second receiver in two-receiver sets for Washington; if limited to slot-only usage, his fantasy upside diminishes significantly.

Antonio Williams, a third-round wide receiver with high draft capital, is a late-round dart throw in mock drafts due to opportunity and talent with Jaden Daniels. However, he played 93% of his routes from the slot in college, raising concern that if the Commanders use two-receiver sets, he may not be the second option and could be limited to slot-only usage, which hurts fantasy value.

Albert Breer reports the Buccaneers are prepared to dive in on negotiations with Baker Mayfield this week; indicates active contract discussions underway.

Brian Robinson Jr. (referred to as 'Bill' in the transcript) is the backup running back for the Washington Commanders with explosive upside. He has the juice and talent to become a featured back if he improves in pass protection and the receiving game. The coaching staff's confidence in him in these areas will determine whether he becomes a full-time player, making this a training-camp watch.

CeeDee Lamb is ranked as wide receiver five and is in tier A/tier 1, near JSN. The speaker notes he's 27 years old and in his absolute peak prime. Over his last 17 games, he was an 'A in consistency,' including a game where he played almost 0% of snaps and still wasn't scoring touchdowns but was still great for fantasy. He has upside to score touchdowns (he had 12 a couple years ago). Lamb is the Cowboys' alpha and has a lot to prove coming off an injured year. The speaker has him definitely a tier above George Pickens without a doubt. When both Lamb and Pickens were on the field together, it was really CeeDee Lamb getting it done.

JJ Zachariason ranks him WR5 and places him in tier 1 alongside JSN, a tier above George Pickens. At 27 years old in his absolute peak prime, he was an A in consistency over his last 17 games despite playing almost 0% of snaps in one game and not scoring touchdowns. He's the Cowboys' alpha with upside to return to 12 touchdowns (from a couple years ago). When both he and Pickens were on the field, Lamb got the first look with 13 and 11 targets in the first two games.

Chigoziem Okonkwo signed a three-year, $17 million deal to be Washington's tight end one. He is a very athletic tight end with breakaway-play ability who will have high-volume opportunities in a passing attack with limited competition for the second target; he could be the number-two target in the offense. JJ Zachariason calls him an undrafted tight end sleeper with breakout potential, though he is not betting on it as heavily as some believers.

Dolphins placed rookie wide receiver Chris Bell on the active NFI list recovering from an ACL tear; he tore his ACL late in the offseason, making his Week 1 availability uncertain.

Dolphins placed rookie wide receiver Chris Bell on the active NFI list recovering from an ACL tear; he tore his ACL late in the offseason, making his Week 1 availability uncertain despite hopes for advanced healing.

Dak Prescott is going as QB11 or QB9 (depending on ranking system) but is a strong value. He passed for over 4,500 yards last year despite missing CeeDee Lamb and had 30 touchdowns. The speaker notes Dak remains one of the best values at the quarterback position. While there's a concerning trend—when the Cowboys won, he averaged 24 fantasy points; when they lost, he averaged 12 (the largest gap between any top-15 QB)—the speaker is not destroyed by this because you don't have to pay up for Dak. Some of those bad games make sense (half of week 18 against Giants for 0.7 points, a horrific game on the road against Denver). As long as Dak plays 13+ games, he has been a top-10 QB in his career six times (QB 6, 10, 2, 7, 3, 5). If he plays 16 games, he will finish as a top-10 QB.

Finished as QB5 last year despite missing CeeDee Lamb and throwing 30 touchdowns. Passed for over 4,500 yards. JJ Zachariason notes he remains one of the best values at QB and is going as QB11 despite a track record of finishing top 10 whenever he plays 13+ games (6 times in his career: QB6, 10, 2, 7, 3, 5). The concerning trend is his split performance: 24 fantasy points in wins vs. 12 in losses (largest gap among top 15 QBs), but this is mitigated by the fact that he doesn't need to be started in bad matchups.

Dallas Goedert is described as 'the most sneaky, hidden, possible tight end gem that exists.' With AJ Brown gone and Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers growing into their roles, Goedert could have a 'solo project year' where he gets 90+ percent of snaps in the Eagles offense all year long. He had 11 touchdowns last year (an outlier; he's typically a four-touchdown-per-year guy), and with AJ Brown gone and proof he can be utilized around the end zone, he's worth a late-round shot. His points per game last year was 10.3 (his best), though he's had years of 9.5 and 9.1. He's always been injury-prone (played 10, 14, 12, 15, 11 games in recent years), but if healthy, he could be left in your lineup all year as a late-round pick.

JJ Zachariason calls him "the most sneaky, hidden, possible tight end gem that exists." With AJ Brown gone and Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers growing into their roles, Goedert could have a "solo project year" with 90+ percent of snaps. He had 11 touchdowns last year (an outlier; typically 4 per year) and 10.3 PPG, his best mark. Ranked as TE10 overall by Zachariason versus TE13-15 for Kelsey and Andrews. Late-round target for teams punting the position.

Darius Slayton gets no respect in the Giants' wide receiver room discussion, but he is part of the new direction alongside Malachi Fields. With the departure of Wandale Robinson and the injury to Malik Nabers, Slayton could see increased opportunity in the passing game.

Devontae Smith is mentioned as part of the Eagles' receiving corps alongside Mekhi Lemon and Dallas Goddard following A.J. Brown's departure; the offense will spread the ball around more without being forced to target one direction.

ADP is rising into August and he's being drafted as a wide receiver one in best ball formats. Without AJ Brown, he's essentially a WR1 for fantasy and has finished there before when Brown missed time. However, the upside is already baked into his ADP; he's not a discount pick and the excitement level is muted because the market has already priced in his elevated role.

DeVonta Smith's ADP is rising into August and will continue to do so. In redraft, he's being drafted around wide receiver choice territory, but in best ball he's a top-12 guy. Without AJ Brown, Smith is essentially a wide receiver one for fantasy—he's already finished there before when AJ Brown missed time. However, the upside is already baked into his ADP; he's being drafted like a wide receiver one in best ball drafts right now, so there's no discount available. The speaker notes he's a fine pick when push comes to shove later, but the upside is not surprising to the market.

George Pickens is ranked as wide receiver 11 and is described as a certifiable stud. He had a special year and was much better with CeeDee Lamb off the field. When both Lamb and Pickens were on the field together (first two games), Pickens had a solid week two but not great week one. However, Pickens 'went absolutely nuclear' in the time that CeeDee Lamb was off the field. Both are worth the price of admission with both staying healthy, and both are number ones. The speaker is very okay with George at wide receiver 11.

Ranked WR11 by JJ Zachariason. Had a special year and was much better with CeeDee Lamb off the field, going "absolutely nuclear" during Lamb's absence. Both are certifiably studs and worth the price of admission if healthy. Pickens had a solid week two as a Cowboy but the sample of both receivers on field together is limited (first two games only).

Isaiah Likely is Jackson Dart's primary tight end target and was the first and only player Dart named when asked about his weapons at Fanatics Fest. Likely is the more explosive, fun player compared to Theo Johnson and will probably produce more fantasy points. He is a weapon for Dart in two-tight-end sets, especially while Malik Nabers is recovering.

Isaiah Likely is the more explosive, fun player between the Giants' two tight ends and will probably produce more fantasy points than Theo Johnson. He is a weapon for Jackson Dart and will benefit from two tight-end sets, especially with Malik Nabers sidelined. Dart specifically named Likely first when asked about his weapons at Fanatics Fest, suggesting early rapport and confidence.

NFL Network's Ian Rappaport reports the Cardinals are in agreement that Jacoby Brissett deserves more money; Brissett is his own agent, and while all parties agree he deserves a raise, they have not yet reached agreement on the amount.

Jake Ferguson had eight top-10 fantasy finishes last year, second only to Trey McBride on the season, but the speaker won't draft him. The reason: most of those games were when CeeDee Lamb was out. As much as Prescott loves throwing to the tight end position, there's only enough volume for two, and if one of those two is Jake Ferguson, he's going to be great. But otherwise, the speaker would avoid him. He's a conditional play only if one of the top two Cowboys receivers goes down.

Had eight top-10 fantasy finishes last year, second only to Trey McBride, but JJ Zachariason won't draft him. The issue is that most of those games came when CeeDee Lamb was out; there's only enough target share for two receivers in Dak's offense. If one of Lamb or Pickens goes down, Ferguson becomes a must-add, but otherwise he should be avoided.

Jalen Hurts' consistency metrics show significant decline: 2022 had 53% great games, 80% good, 7% bust; last year dropped to 13% great games, 44% good, 31% bust. The range of outcomes is wide—he could have a resurgent year with a new offensive coordinator (Sean Mannion) and spread offense, but also faces risk from losing A.J. Brown and aging supporting cast.

Jalen Hurts' consistency metrics show significant decline: 2022 had 53% great games, 80% good, 7% bust; last year dropped to 13% great games, 44% good, 31% bust—a humongous difference in week-to-week outcomes. Loss of A.J. Brown and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion create uncertainty about offensive trajectory despite Hurts' historical ability to run a good offense.

Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdown production collapsed from 14-15 per year to 8 last season, a loss of 7 rushing TDs worth significant fantasy points. Rushing yards also declined from 700+ range to 421, outside of the touchdown argument representing a major downgrade. The tush push conversion rate dropped from 81% (48 attempts in 2024) to 64% (33 attempts), with only 8 goal-line attempts last year versus 13-15 in prior years.

Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdown production collapsed from 14-15 per season to 8 last year, losing seven rushing touchdowns worth of fantasy points. Rushing yards also declined from 700+ range to 421, a massive downgrade. Tush push attempts dropped from 13-15 to only 8, reducing his goal-line scoring opportunities despite the play remaining the most successful in football.

Jalen Hurts is currently being drafted in the sixth round at his lowest ADP in several years; despite losing A.J. Brown and facing offensive uncertainty, he finished as QB7 in points per game last year and can still produce rushing touchdowns via the tush push, making him a fine value pick at this price point.

Jalen Hurts is currently being drafted in the sixth round at the lowest ADP of his career, positioned as QB6 after Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, and Joe Burrow. While he likely won't be a top-three fantasy QB anymore due to reduced rushing yardage, he should remain a solid QB due to rushing touchdown upside from the tush push and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion's system.

Javante Williams is the clear, unquestioned lead back for the Cowboys with no debate in the backfield. The team paid him again and he's their running back—there is no competition from Jaden Blue, Phil Moppa, or Malik Davis; none of them matter. He's the goal-line back (100% when they're on the goal line, he'll get the touchdown opportunities in the rushing game) and is past two (over 50 targets from Dak last year; he's had over 70 recently when in Denver, though he won't do much with them). He's on a good offense with the same coaching staff and an offensive line with a former offensive line head coach (Clayton Adams from the Cardinals). The speaker has zero fear of anybody else in that backfield and can start him every week without thinking about it.

No debate in the Cowboys backfield; he's the clear, unquestioned starter. The team paid him again and he's their running back with zero fear of competition from Jaden Blue, Phil Moppa, or Malik Davis. He's the goal-line back (100% when on the goal line) and will get rushing touchdown opportunities. Receives 50+ targets from Dak (had 70+ recently in Denver). The team got a lot out of him last year with the same coaching staff and an offensive line led by former Cardinals line coach Clayton Adams.

Jaden Daniels is trying to get back to health after a lost 2024 season for the Commanders (5-12 record). Last year, he and Terry McLaurin didn't even get to play together—they had only three games out of 17 together due to injuries. The speaker notes uncertainty about what the Commanders will be on offense with the departure of Cliff Kingsbury and Jaden Daniels' health situation. However, Jaden has an offseason to get healthy, and Terry McLaurin will be back. The speaker doesn't feel they know what the Commanders offense will look like and feels far removed from seeing it.

The Commanders had a lost 5-12 season after a great rookie campaign. Daniels and Terry McLaurin barely played together (only 3 games out of 17) due to injuries. JJ Zachariason expresses uncertainty about what the Commanders offense will look like with the departure of Cliff Kingsbury and questions about Daniels' health recovery. The team's win total dropped from 9.5 to 7.5, reflecting the uncertainty.

Daniels dropped from third-round ADP last year to sixth-round this year due to durability concerns and weapon losses (Eckler, Debo gone), but JJ Zachariason is comfortable taking a shot on him given his rushing floor; he was on pace to break scrambling records last year before injury, with potential to rush for 800 yards, which guarantees fantasy production regardless of passing weapons.

Daniels dropped from third-round ADP last year to sixth-round this year, but JJ Zachariason is comfortable taking a shot on him given his rushing floor; he was on pace to break all scrambling records before injury, with potential to rush for 800 yards. Even with limited passing weapons (Terry McLaurin, Antonio Williams, Traylon Burks), his dual-threat upside provides a guaranteed fantasy floor that can overcome offensive limitations.

Daniels' passing efficiency declined significantly in year two: completion percentage dropped 8%, yards per attempt fell 0.7, and touchdown percentage was down almost a full point. His rookie schedule was a cakewalk, and the harder schedule combined with injuries and a weak defense suggest regression from his year-one pace.

Daniels' passing efficiency declined significantly in year two: completion percentage dropped 8%, yards per attempt down 0.7, and touchdown percentage down almost a full point. Last year's rookie schedule was a cakewalk; this year's is harder, and the Commanders' weak defense and five-win record suggest limited game script support for passing volume.

Makai Lemon is a first-round wide receiver prospect coming into a team that lost AJ Brown, creating significant opportunity. He's being drafted in the mid-to-late seventh round despite being a first-round pick at the position—a tier-one talent in a good offense with clear avenues for production. The speaker believes Lemon could be a breakout surprising year-one player and should move up in ADP from his current mid-to-late seventh round range. His talent is there, and the opportunity is clear, making him a player you should draft at a place where that impact will be very helpful for fantasy football.

First-round wide receiver prospect joining an Eagles offense that lost AJ Brown, creating clear opportunity and avenues for production. JJ Zachariason notes he's a fantastic receiver being drafted in the mid-to-late seventh round—a significant discount for a first-round talent in a high-opportunity situation. With training camp ahead, Lemon could move up in ADP significantly as utilization becomes clearer.

Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending ACL injury that has turned into a difficult recovery. He will likely start the year on the PUP list and miss the first four to five weeks of the season, limiting his early-season fantasy value despite his star potential.

Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending ACL injury in week six that has turned into a difficult recovery. He is expected to start the season on the PUP list and miss the first four to five weeks. However, JJ Zachariason believes he will be a star fantasy option by season's end if he reaches 85-90% of his capability, and he projects him as a fourth-round pick when healthy, with fantasy playoff potential.

When Jackson Dart was the starter, he targeted Wandale Robinson (185 pounds) 140 times, throwing him 14 targets in some games. Dart will give Malik Nabers every opportunity to succeed when he returns, and Nabers will be a monster at the end of the year. His target volume and Dart's aggressive passing to his top receiver suggest elite fantasy production once healthy.

Malik Nabers will be a star fantasy option at the end of the year if he reaches 85-90% of his capability. Jackson Dart targeted him heavily (140 targets to Wandale Robinson at 185 pounds), and when Nabers is on the field, Dart will give him every opportunity to succeed, making him a monster at the end of the season and a fantasy playoff asset.

Malik Nabers should be targeted in the fourth round in 12-team redraft leagues. At that point, the entire league will start getting sweaty on him. If you have a strong running back and two other good wide receivers, you can afford to take the shot on Nabers in the fourth round despite his injury status, given his star potential.

Mark Andrews is ranked 21st overall at tight end by the speaker, behind both Dallas Goedert (10th) and Travis Kelce (17th). He's grouped with Kelce and Goedert as one of three older tight ends being drafted near the end of the draft (tight end 13, 14, 15), essentially as undrafted or near-end-of-draft tight ends.

Ranked TE21 by JJ Zachariason, placing him in the tier of undrafted or near-end-of-draft tight ends alongside Kelsey (TE17) and Goedert (TE10). No specific production or role concerns mentioned, but the ranking suggests limited upside relative to other options.

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports Sam Laporta fully cleared for training camp after herniated disc; the tight end is expected to be healthy for the season.

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports Sam Laporta fully cleared for training camp after herniated disc; the tight end is expected to be available for the season.

Saquon Barkley had an explosive 2024 season with 17 20+ yard runs and 740+ yard runs, but last year showed no explosiveness. Among 55 qualified RBs with 80+ attempts, he ranked 48th in stuffed at the line of scrimmage and 48th in rushing success rate, 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. He tends to hunt for home runs rather than taking short gains; this worked when lanes were wide open but failed when defenses stacked the box due to the Eagles' poor passing game.

Saquon Barkley's running style has historically involved seeking home runs rather than taking guaranteed short gains; this approach worked well when lanes were wide open but became problematic last year when the Eagles' passing game struggled early, forcing more defenders into the box against him.

Saquon Barkley's 2024 season was prolific with 17 20+ yard runs and 740+ rushing yards, but last year he did not show the same explosiveness. Among 55 qualified running backs with 80+ attempts, he ranked 48th in stuffed at the line of scrimmage and 48th in rushing success rate, 42nd in yards after contact per attempt—indicating defenders were getting bodies on him and he was not hitting home runs as effectively.

Ranked 48th in stuffed at the line of scrimmage and 48th in rushing success rate; 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism about a resurgent year despite Lane Johnson's health, noting that Tank Bigsby looked great behind the same offensive line last year. At 29 years old with only 13 carries inside the five and one rushing touchdown, the declining touchdown volume is concerning.

JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism about Saquon's resurgent year despite Lane Johnson's return to health. Barkley ranked 48th in stuffed at the line of scrimmage and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt last year; he was hit frequently and the Eagles' poor passing game kept defenses stacked in the box. At 29 years old, Zachariason notes that while Lane Johnson's health could open lanes, he was skeptical when watching Tank Bigsby behind the same offensive line last year—Bigsby looked great. Additionally, Barkley had only 13 carries inside the five with one rushing touchdown, a significant decline in goal-line work.

Terry McLaurin is expected to be back and healthy for the Commanders after a lost 2024 season where he and Jaden Daniels had only three games together out of 17 due to injuries. The speaker notes McLaurin will be back out there as part of the Commanders' offensive changes, but expresses uncertainty about what the offense will look like overall with the departure of Cliff Kingsbury and questions about the wide receiver room.

Will be back on the field after a lost 2024 season where he and Jaden Daniels played together in only 3 of 17 games. The Commanders made offensive changes including bringing in Chigakonkwo and Rashad White, and drafted Antonio Williams in the third round. JJ Zachariason expresses uncertainty about the offense's direction with the new coordinator and questions whether there will be reliable pass catchers for Daniels.

McLaurin is the reliable pass catcher in Washington's offense, but he is older and was thriving on touchdowns a couple years ago. Ceiling is debated—one JJ Zachariason thinks top-ten potential, another thinks lower—but there is uncertainty about his role in an offense lacking other weapons.

Terry McLaurin is the reliable pass catcher in Washington's offense and a top-ten ceiling candidate. While he is older and was thriving on touchdowns a couple years ago, his ceiling remains solid as a top-ten wide receiver despite questions about the overall weapons around Jaden Daniels.

Theo Johnson had a great rapport with Jackson Dart last year and will be part of two-tight-end sets alongside Isaiah Likely. While Likely is the more explosive option, Johnson is a complementary weapon for Dart and provides depth at the position while Malik Nabers recovers.

Theo Johnson had a great rapport with Jackson Dart last year and is a weapon for the Giants' passing game. He will be part of two tight-end sets alongside Isaiah Likely, especially with Malik Nabers sidelined. Both tight ends complement Dart's playmaking and provide passing-game support early in the season.

Travis Kelce is ranked 17th overall at tight end by the speaker, behind Dallas Goedert (10th). While Kelce still had 76 catches for 850 yards last year, the speaker notes 'he is clearly on his last' and this is 'the end for Travis.' Kelce will probably have more work than Goedert in PPR and will likely still be the number two target for the Chiefs, but the speaker has Goedert leaps and bounds ahead of him. Kelce may still get work around the goal line, but the speaker's ranking reflects declining confidence.

Tyrone Tracy is the backup running back behind Cam Saquon Barkley in the Giants' deep backfield. The team has a strong run-game focus under John Harbaugh, with Tracy serving as a secondary option in a run-heavy offense.

Tyrone Tracy is the backup running back behind Cam Scadaboo in the Giants' deep backfield core. The team has a strong running game with Tracy as a complementary piece, which will be a key part of the Giants' offensive strategy while they develop their passing game.

Wandale Robinson is gone from the Giants, leaving a significant void in the passing game. He was Jackson Dart's primary target last year, receiving 140 targets despite weighing only 185 pounds, and his departure removes a key weapon from Dart's arsenal.

Wandale Robinson, at 185 pounds, received 140 targets from Jackson Dart when Dart was the starter, including games with 14 targets. This demonstrates Dart's aggressive target distribution to his primary receiver, setting a precedent for how he will target Malik Nabers when he returns.

Seahawks officially placed running back Zach Charbonnet on the PUP list; he is expected to start the season on the PUP as well, meaning he will miss at least the first few games.

Seahawks officially placed Zach Charbonnet on the PUP list; he is expected to start the season on the PUP as well, meaning he will miss at least the first few games.