Previewing AFC South & Almanac Stuff

Alec Pierce is coming off an injury and his fantasy outlook is heavily dependent on Daniel Jones's health. If Jones suffers a setback and is unavailable for week one, the source would not draft Pierce at all. Additionally, if there are setbacks or complications with Anthony Richardson's Achilles injury recovery, the source would be out on the entire Colts passing attack, including Pierce.

Jacksonville WR identified as the primary monitoring target for training camp news due to prior injury history. The source notes Thomas is 'probably the key guy to monitor news on if you're going to monitor anybody' in the Jaguars receiving room. In early 2024, the Jaguars attempted to deploy Thomas as an all-field weapon before his injury, but he struggled to produce in that role, adding uncertainty to his role deployment going forward.

Titans WR listed as part of receiving room depth chart alongside Elick Iomaner and Chimre Dike; the source notes Ridley is a temporary member ('for now'), suggesting uncertainty about his long-term role or potential departure.

Harris has drawn line in rankings saying he will draft Carnell Tate until he gets into round four, but will not draft him inside round four regardless of training camp hype. Blended Almanac ranks place him at 60 overall in standard and 57 overall in full PPR (approximately fifth round). Harris views him as talented player with immense ceiling due to fourth-overall draft capital and production profile, but wants to stem irrationality in rookie receiver market and avoid paying up for training camp helium. Harris notes that because last couple of rookie classes have been disappointing, Tate can be drafted at better discount than receivers like Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson were, and that fifth-round pick on him is low-risk relative to earlier rookie receiver investments. Harris acknowledges Tate's ceiling is immense given draft capital, production profile, and athleticism, but notes that good training camp news will only inflate his cost above where it should be. Harris prefers quiet training camp scenario to stem irrationality, as Titans organization is incentivized to hype young draft picks and will share contested catch clips on social media, which could drive his ADP higher than warranted.

Jacksonville RB candidate preferred over Bashaw Tootin due to superior talent profile: breaks tackles, accelerates into contact, keeps offenses on schedule, and posts top-five advanced analytics in broken tackle rate and success rate. Has college connection with Jaguars coach Liam Cohen. Expected to be significantly cheaper than Tootin in drafts despite superior film and analytics. The source expects Rodriguez to be more involved than market pricing suggests unless training camp drumbeat proves otherwise.

Daniel Jones's health is the critical linchpin for the entire Colts offense and all skill weapon values. The Colts offense was one of the best in the league with Jones healthy last year and one of the worst without him. Early reports indicate he should be ready for the start of training camp, but any indication that he is not quite there yet or delayed would trigger panic on the entire offense. The source will monitor his practice status closely and adjust Colts player values based on whether he is on the practice field.

The source is 100% confident that David Montgomery will be the three-down back for the Texans, mirroring the team's intention with Nick Chubb last year and Joe Mixon before his decline. Montgomery is expected to handle all offensive roles and is far and away the better running back compared to Woody Marks, making him the clear focal point of the Texans backfield.

The source came out of film review very positive on Jaden Higgins despite limited opportunities in 2024. While he didn't get to do a ton early in the season, his performance improved as the season progressed, suggesting potential upside if given more opportunities in the Texans receiver room.

Jonathan Taylor was an RB3 without Daniel Jones healthy last year but was the top-scoring running back with Jones on the field. His fantasy value is entirely dependent on Jones's health status. If Jones suffers a setback or is unavailable for week one, Taylor would fall significantly in rankings, though the source would not let him fall below the middle of the second round even in a worst-case scenario. With Jones healthy, Taylor is an early first-round pick.

Harris expresses skepticism about Jordan Tyson, noting he doesn't watch college football and all he knows is Tyson has been hurt his entire career. Harris notes that as long as everything is fine and he doesn't get hurt, he would not be mad at someone taking Tyson instead of Jacoby Myers in late-round scenario, as it could work out fine and you're not going to ruin your draft. Harris emphasizes the issue is when you get into should-I-take-AJ-Brown-or-Jordan-Tyson debate, which is when the market has lost the plot.

The source would love to think Josh Downs might be a sneaky high-catch-rate option in the Colts offense, but his value is entirely dependent on Daniel Jones's health; if Jones suffers a setback and is unavailable for week one, the source would not draft Downs at all. Additionally, if there are setbacks or complications with Anthony Richardson's Achilles injury recovery, the source would be out on the entire Colts passing attack, probably not wanting Josh Downs even if he's the cheapest of the bunch.

Harris regrets moving Matthew Golden up in rankings during training camp last year despite pre-training camp conviction he was not a good receiver and Packers reached for him in draft. Golden received nothing but puff pieces from Packers organization and beat reporters during August, with GM and coaches raving about him, causing Harris to begrudgingly move him up and draft him in handful of leagues. Golden finished as WR 40 last year. Harris uses Golden as cautionary example of how training camp hype can override pre-camp conviction. Opportunity cost of reaching on Golden: could have had Mecca Buka instead in eighth or ninth round, who was better at least for couple months.

Harris views Nicholas Singleton as very, very good running back with high ceiling. Singleton was five-star recruit coming out of high school and is very good athlete. However, Singleton fell in draft due to concerns about mental toughness and effort last season at Penn State, where he appeared to check out mentally after Drew Allar got hurt and Katron Allen took over workload. Harris prefers Katron Allen to Singleton based on college tape, but acknowledges Singleton's ceiling is there if he can get healthy and engaged. Singleton suffered broken foot in spring, which is key variable that will determine how Titans backfield looks. If Singleton is still struggling to get back or misses training camp, Harris will not factor him into regular season expectations, as it is very hard for rookie to miss training camp and then find path to production mid-season. If reports indicate Singleton healed faster than expected and foot is healthy and ready to go, Harris would view backfield as three-headed committee.

Jacksonville WR with significant limitations in receiving role; terrified to go over the middle and requires sideline-only deployment. The source notes Collins 'could play anywhere' initially but coaching staff realized he cannot handle middle-of-field routes, forcing them to 'ride him on the rail, on the sideline.' This role limitation constrains his usage and fantasy ceiling in the Jaguars offense.

The source has a positive feeling about Parker Washington as a slot receiver in the Jaguars offense. Washington was glued to the slot on over 70% of snaps last year, and the source notes that slot receivers in a Liam Cohen offense can be very productive, suggesting defined role clarity and upside within that role.

Tank Dell suffered a brutal knee injury and was not 100% at OTAs, still watching from sidelines and doing limited workouts. While he is considered the alpha and leader of the Texans receiver room, his recovery status is critical; the source will not factor him into expectations until preseason performance demonstrates he has returned to pre-injury form. Positive news on Dell could suppress other Texans WR values.

Harris has consistently held middle-ground view on Tony Pollard's draft value: willing to take him in seventh round but not in third round; characterizes him as serviceable NFL running back and cagey veteran, rejecting both hype cycles where fantasy community overvalues youth and narrative that he's washed at age 29. If Nick Singleton is healthy and heavily involved in training camp, Harris would move Pollard down in rankings. Singleton's health is key variable that could change backfield dynamic; if Singleton is healthy, three-headed committee with Pollard, Spears, and Singleton would make backfield harder to get read on and potentially cause Harris to avoid position entirely. With new coaching regime and both Pollard and Spears on expiring contracts, team might want to get look at what Singleton can do with bigger role late in year, which would be worst possible scenario for Pollard.

Travis Hunter's offensive vs. defensive snap split is a critical X-factor for the entire Jaguars WR room. The source expects Hunter to play primarily defense (no cornerback was drafted, filling a position of need), but if he splits time with the offense at 50-60% of snaps in training camp, it would significantly complicate the three-WR room structure and suppress ADP expectations for all Jaguars receivers. The source plans to monitor practice reports closely to determine his offensive involvement.

The source states they do not want Tyler Warren if there are setbacks or complications with Anthony Richardson's Achilles injury recovery. If Richardson shows multiple setbacks, complications, or cannot get up to 100%, the source would be out on the entire Colts passing attack, including Warren.

Harris projects Titans WR Wandale Robinson for 700 yards and 5 TDs despite undersized profile (4 inches shorter and 17 pounds lighter than Amon-Ra St. Brown). Film grades: Speed B, Elusiveness B+, End Zone C, Hands upgraded to B; Situation grade B-. Robinson's 1,014 receiving yards in 2025 would be the highest total for any receiver his height/weight this millennium; Cole Beasley's comparable 967 yards required injury to Malik Nabers and Giants dysfunction. Robinson is a 'hard-working wiggly worm' with fearless play and tackle-breaking ability; Harris willing to use bench spot despite modest projection. However, Titans drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall, which quieted speculation Robinson would become high-volume WR. Cousin Josh's Almanac commentary questions whether Robinson is materially different from Parker Washington or Ladd McConkie, noting WR position is 'super flat' with 'pretty good solutions pretty far down the draft board.'

The source does not believe Woody Marks is a good running back and is skeptical that beat reporters can convince him otherwise. While Marks could theoretically play on some third downs and might be involved as a pass catcher, the source views him as unlikely to significantly impact David Montgomery's usage or role. Any positive news about Marks (e.g., pass-catching involvement) may create draft board helium but should not suppress other Texans skill weapon values.