Legendary Sickos: Fantasy Football ADP Landscape
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 57 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Mar 28, 2026
Published
Sat, March 28, 2026
36
Player insights
36
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAlec PierceAmon-Ra St. BrownAntonio WilliamsBijan RobinsonBryce LanceBucky IrvingChris RodriguezD'Andre SwiftDavid MontgomeryDenzel BostonDrake MayeJadarian PriceJalen Hurts
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeValue45:06
The source drafted A.J. Brown at pick 27. Trade rumors have circulated with the Rams mentioned as a team looking into him, creating uncertainty around his landing spot and roster construction.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeBust24:23
Alec Pierce signed a $30 million per year contract, but the source expresses skepticism about the valuation, stating 'I wouldn't pay him $30 million a year either,' suggesting the receiver is overpriced relative to his fantasy production. Pierce serves as the source's cautionary example of over-relying on film study and hand-in-dirt evaluation; Pierce was a prospect the source was convinced would be good, but he underperformed for 3 years in the NFL, leading the source to reconsider their evaluation methodology. The source calls this 'my Alec Pierce' moment—a multi-year disappointment that illustrates the risk of prospect conviction without NFL validation.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveRole20:20
Drafted as a primary wide receiver in a zero-running-back team strategy, indicating confidence in his role and production.
Insight pageAntonio Williams
PositiveValue17:24
Source increasing allocation to Antonio Williams due to decent draft capital; positioning him as a prospect worth taking more of in draft builds. Drafted as a late-round receiver in a zero-running-back team strategy.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveUsage42:19
Bijan Robinson had a 47% breakaway percentage in college, which is excellent and higher than TreVeyon Henderson's 45%. The Jaguars designed real receiver routes for him in college—motioning him out to run corners against linebackers and throwing him over-the-shoulder passes that he made. This demonstrates he is a good receiver with designed receiving usage, not just a runner, giving him dual-threat upside.
Insight pageBryce Lance
NegativeProjection18:18
Source hasn't taken much of Bryce Lance but is reconsidering; notes he's climbed to 88 on NFL Mock Draft database consensus board, suggesting he may go higher than initially expected.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveRole20:20
Drafted as part of a strong running back corps in the source's zero-running-back team strategy, paired with Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery, De'Andre Swift, and Jaylen Warren. The source indicated confidence in the overall running back depth, stating the team was 'looking set at running back.'
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeRole36:58
Chris Rodriguez was irrelevant to fantasy football last year despite being on the roster, but became the starter in Jacksonville after being signed. However, his career receiving history (never more than one reception in a game in his entire career) severely limits his receiving upside. He is a competent zone runner but nothing special, and poses a threat to Bashaul Tuit only if Tuit underperforms. The source drafted him heavily last year as an eliminator pick and views him as a decent eliminator pick now with a probable early role, but not a fantasy smash at pick 60. Most likely he comes in to help fill in touches in a crowded backfield rather than lead the offense.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveRole20:20
Drafted as part of a strong running back depth chart in the source's zero-running-back team strategy, paired with Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, David Montgomery, and Jaylen Warren. The source indicated confidence in the overall running back depth, stating the team was 'looking set at running back.'
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveRole20:20
Included in a strong running back rotation within the source's zero-running-back draft strategy team, alongside Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, De'Andre Swift, and Jaylen Warren. The source expressed confidence in the running back depth, indicating the team was 'looking set at running back.'
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveValue20:38
Source is not enamored with Denzel Boston as a rookie prospect; the price gap between Boston and other late-round rookie receivers (priced 50–85 on consensus boards, 180+ ADP) is alarming. The opportunity cost of Boston's slightly higher potential draft capital does not justify his higher price when compared to alternatives like Omar Cooper. Part of a group of late-round dynasty picks (sixth through twelfth round range) that teams will target in June/July peak draft season, currently available around pick 115 overall or later.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveValue45:10
The source double-tapped Drake Maye and Jalen Hurts as a quarterback stack strategy in their draft, indicating a deliberate pairing of the two quarterbacks to maximize correlation and coverage.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeRole4:53
The source included Judarian Price as a rookie running back selection in a draft build being discussed, indicating consideration of the rookie RB in the current draft landscape despite the weak 2026 rookie running back class.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue45:10
The source double-tapped Jalen Hurts and Drake Maye as a quarterback stack strategy in their draft, indicating a deliberate pairing of the two quarterbacks to maximize correlation and coverage.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
PositiveValue8:00
McMillan's draft value shifted significantly post-coaching/team changes; the source initially wasn't enthusiastically targeting him despite him being in a draftable range, but two weeks later became much more aggressive about acquiring him in drafts, reflecting how pre-draft strategy evolves with coaching changes and roster movement.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
NegativeDepth Chart44:51
Will lose touches and opportunity in Dallas due to Mike McCarthy's preference for Rico Dowdle. The source expects Warren to eventually get traded to a new team, stating 'When poor Jaylen Warren gets banished to the sideline cuz Mike McCarthy [ __ ] loves Rico Dowdle, that's really going to not be fun and then we'll we'll eventually get Jaylen Warren on a new team.' This represents a significant role downgrade despite his earlier inclusion in the source's zero-RB strategy.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveProjection18:23
Source projects Jeremiah Love as the 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts and believes that ranking is correct, establishing him as the consensus top running back prospect.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveBreakout10:06
The source characterizes Tyson as boom-bust but still rates him as a pretty good bet overall, suggesting upside potential despite volatility in his profile as a rookie wide receiver prospect.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveRole40:00
Kenny Gainwell is a versatile prospect who can run the ball more than he gets credit for and is a good receiver, similar to a Tootney-type player who never got a chance; he was really good at Memphis. As a hypothetical backfield signing, Gainwell would have been a disaster for Bashtaun Tuitan's fantasy value; the source explicitly states he would not be moving Tuitan up from his prior draft target if the team had signed Gainwell instead of Rodriguez. Gainwell's skill set would have been far more concerning to Tuitan's workload than Rodriguez's limited receiving ability because Gainwell does all the same things as the primary back and might actually be better, making him a scary depth-chart threat.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue21:20
Kyler Murray is undervalued in the current ADP landscape and represents a competent best-ball pick option. While not a franchise quarterback for Super Bowl contention, he is competent enough to get the ball to star receivers like Justin Jefferson, making him a viable mid-tier quarterback option at his current draft position.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveBreakout10:00
The source expresses solid conviction on Lemon as a rookie wide receiver prospect, indicating he's a player the source is actively targeting in the current rookie class.
Insight pageMalik Washington
PositiveValue20:20
Late-round rookie wide receiver drafted in a zero-running-back team strategy as part of a speculative group (alongside Rasheed Shaheed and Tank Dell) expected to gain draft capital and become productive.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeValue27:07
Rookie WR with first-round draft capital but limited early production; the source treats him as a reluctant 'vegetables' allocation—a mid-tier exposure play (4–8%) taken at cheaper prices early to avoid chasing him up later in the draft window. Golden was compared to Omar Cooper's trajectory last year but got more expensive; the source took him over Trey Harris early but acknowledges he's likely worse. The bet is on draft capital and 40-time rather than proven NFL performance. The source also notes the Packers had so many wide receivers they had to move one to corner, creating depth chart concerns. Despite these reservations, the source lacked 'super strong reasons' to completely avoid him due to his first-round status.
Insight pageOmar Cooper Jr.
PositiveProjection10:12
Omar Cooper has a unique dual-skill-set profile: he generates a significant percentage of his yards from both YAC (yards after catch) and downfield targets, making him one of the only receivers in recent years to balance both. The source describes him as 'kind of Debo underneath with the football in his hands' while also capable of getting open and winning contested catches downfield. This combination is viewed as 'awesome for an NFL player to have,' though he is not a perfect prospect. The source is actively trying to acquire more exposure to Cooper despite his ADP rise, viewing him as a potential seventh or eighth round pick who could land in the first round depending on landing spot. The source has gotten higher on Cooper as a rookie wide receiver prospect, in part because the NFL seems to really like him, indicating improving draft conviction based on professional evaluation signals.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveRole21:00
Selected as the quarterback in a zero-running-back team strategy, paired with Travis Kelce, indicating confidence in his production.
Insight pageRachaad White
NegativeRole40:00
White is cited as a hypothetical backfield threat that would have made the source more nervous about Bashaul Tuitan's role than Chris Rodriguez does. The implication is that White's skill set would pose a greater threat to Tuitan's workload than Rodriguez's limited receiving ability.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeValue20:40
Source notes Rice presents a binary outcome: either he will be suspended or he will be completely underpriced at pick 34, making him a high-risk, high-reward value play.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveRole44:24
Rico Dowdle is the number one running back on the source's zero running back strategy team. The source quite likes Rico Dowdle and expects him to be the primary back, with Jaylen Warren getting banished to the sideline because Mike McCarthy favors Dowdle.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeRole41:51
RJ Harvey is cited as a cautionary example of a young back who was inconsistent and boom-bust as a rookie, causing the team to lose trust and prevent him from leading the backfield heading into year two. The source notes uncertainty about whether Harvey is actually good and whether the team trusts him after his rookie season, illustrating the risk of inconsistency in young backs and how NFL teams respond by bringing in competition rather than committing to the young prospect.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveRole20:20
Featured as a lead running back in the source's zero-running-back draft strategy team alongside Bucky Irving, David Montgomery, De'Andre Swift, and Jaylen Warren. The source expressed confidence in the running back depth, stating 'it's looking looking set at running back,' indicating strong conviction in Barkley's role and production potential.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveValue20:20
Drafted as a late-round rookie wide receiver in the source's zero-running-back team strategy, part of a group of three rookie receivers (Rasheed Shaheed, Tank Dell, Malik Washington) taken on speculation that they will gain draft capital and become productive.
Insight pageTed Ginn Jr.
NegativeBust21:48
Ted Ginn Jr. could fall to the fifth round and become a non-starter, exemplifying the risk of overvaluing small-school prospects with good college numbers who fail to translate to NFL production. The source cites personal experience of drafting similar archetypes who became inactive on game days.
Insight pageTed Hurst
PositiveValue17:42
Projected 85 on board, climbed from 100s range; source notes NFL interest and physical profile (big, fast) but warns he's classic case of NFL overvaluation and will likely go second round to poorly-run franchises despite ninth round value. Drafted as a late-round tight end in a zero-running-back team strategy.
Insight pageTravis Homer
NegativeValue20:20
Drafted as wide receiver three at pick 154 in a zero-running-back team strategy. The source used Homer unconventionally as a receiver despite him being a corner, as part of a strategy to avoid forcing wide receiver early in the draft. This late-round value pick represents the source's willingness to roster non-traditional positions to maintain roster flexibility.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveRole21:00
Paired with Patrick Mahomes in a zero-running-back team strategy, indicating confidence in his role and production.
Insight pageZach Ertz
Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Coming up on the first episode of Legendary Sikos, a Legendary Upside and Spike Week collaboration
0:08for Best Ball Sikos, a breakdown of the 2026 ADP landscape. How what can we learn from
0:19our big board drafts, our pre-draft tournaments that we can use over the summer when Best Ball Mania and the Draft Kings Milly and all of those
0:28tournaments drop. We talk about some rookie conversations, what rookies are going to rise, maybe some guys you should draft right now before they rise
0:39a little bit later in the summer, some changes in the market, running backs, quarterbacks, a weird landscape that we have in 2026, a
0:50lack of quarterback firepower, maybe, that we should be concerned about in our drafts. How do we manipulate all of this stuff in our Best Ball drafts in 2026?
1:00That's what myself, Eric MyFour, and Pat Kerrane are going to get into on today's show of Legendary Sikos. Let's do it.
1:17All right, Pat. We are back after uh a little hiatus. We both um have clearly been watching a lot of F1. I've been
1:25watching a lot of college basketball. We had MLB opening opening day, but it's time to get back together.
1:32We're going to talk about some NFL Best Ball, some some fantasy football. And I think you posed this idea that I I
1:38really like the more I thought about it, where, you know, we're all talking about rookies, we're all talking about free agency, we're all talking about, you
1:45know, these coaching changes and all that kind of stuff. And that's super duper important. But it's also probably a pretty good time before May gets here,
1:51before the draft gets here to be like, okay, where where is this like sort of fantasy football market?
1:56We've had an insane roller coaster really like since the introduction of this form of fantasy football with Underdog, you know, back what six or
2:04seven years ago.
2:05And to now, and every year kind of has its own ebbs and flows. And to take a little bit of a step back and think
2:11about like okay, what is this market that we're living in right now? How is that going to look? Obviously, we're recording at
2:18the end of March. How's that going to look in May? How's it going to be different? Where can we exploit it? All
2:23that different stuff. I think it's a pretty darn good time to kind of have that conversation.
2:28Yeah, and it's interesting because I feel like this year um as Best Ball gets more and more popular and and kind of I feel like
2:37people who are into Best Ball, it's become more common to be into Best Ball before the NFL draft. Like it used to be
2:45that it was kind of funny that like we were drafting seriously in May.
2:51I mean, now it's like January, you know, that people are like serious about it.
2:57So, it's become I think the conversation around um like what this year's Best Ball landscape looks like is just like starting
3:06so much earlier.
3:08But, it's now you know, in this pre-draft period where I actually don't know how similar this market will end up being to the
3:17August market.
3:19Um I think it was I think it's going to be different in some really critical ways.
3:23Uh and so it's kind of it's kind of to me like we should probably should be thinking of this period a little bit
3:30differently than we than we will think of how to draft draft Best Ball teams in in August and early September and and
3:36you know, the same way that May always feels different than late summer, too. But But like obviously, we don't have the draft
3:43yet. So, that's like a huge huge domino to fall um that's going to shake things up. So, uh I'm doing some things in this
3:50pre-draft period that like I don't usually do um in terms of my builds. I did have a very fun zero running back build uh this
3:58morning. So, you know, still still sticking to the roots a little bit, but um it's definitely it's interesting how much I am doing more hyper fragile
4:09this year than than I tend to do, but I think it is it is partly related to the prices of all these different
4:17players that I think a lot or at least a a substantial portion of them will change. And then it's also related to
4:24this rookie class, which, you know, we can get into a little bit, which just does not have the running back horses
4:30um in that depth that, you know, even a couple years ago when it wasn't a great running back class, like we at least had
4:36like Bucky Irving and stuff like that.
4:38Like there was a few guys >> Jonathan Brooks year, right? Where, you know, he's the obvious one and >> Trey Benson, I think with that was that
4:44class. Like there was there were like I mean, and there are some swings like that. Uh I I took Nick Singleton on that on that
4:53team I'm referencing. I I had Judarian Price. So, like there are there are certainly rookie bets, but it's just not a deep group of rookie
5:01running backs, which makes it a little harder to uh you know, to to lean on like running back selections in the double digit
5:09rounds um right now. Yep. Uh I I totally agree. Um so, to I have to say this because uh I I got back into the sort the quasi
5:20daily streaming just this just this week. And uh someone in the chat, I don't remember what we're riffing about um while I'm
5:29drafting. And I was like, you know, I I'm still pretty much a beginner in this best ball space or whatever. He's like,
5:37I haven't even got to 1,500 drafts yet.
5:40And to think about the fact that someone in our space thinks they're a a noob drafting 1500
5:50fantasy football teams is hilarious and also like not wrong. You know what I mean? Like it's it's we're in this weird
5:58place where if you told like I try not to even tell like my normal friends or whatever who know what I do
6:04and all that kind of stuff but like how many teams I draft. And I'm not even in the top expert like if we took the
6:10fantasy football market they would think that guy's insane. Right? They'll be like they just draft like maybe two fantasy football teams a year for 30
6:18years of their life or whatever. Right?
6:20So they don't get to 100 fantasy football teams in their life. This guy thinks he's a a nobody cuz he has not
6:27even gotten 50 you know he's got 1300 drafts under his Yeah, yeah. or whatever and and yet it is such a crazy sort of
6:35the game is has changed and stuff so much even when it started back in those early days it was like well if you won
6:4050 like Underdog had one turn. Best Ball Mania was the one and there was no puppies, there was no Pomeranians and
6:48right and all that kind of stuff. So all this stuff is shifted and to your point now we're all getting ex- like when's
6:54the big board dropping? You know, it's like it's the week between the conference championships and Super Bowl and we're drafting for the next upcoming
7:01season which is a ton of fun and it's great and we all love it.
7:07But it's I do think it's important to like you said this is a ultimate like a different game. The big and the the big the
7:14pre-draft stuff is almost like it's own little different sections of different games. Right? Yeah. Early before like pre-free agency Pre-free agency, yeah.
7:23and then post-free agency but pre-draft.
7:26There's pre-the season ending now.
7:28Right. Pre-the >> stopping pre-coaching changes right? We don't even have all the coaching coaching changes, yeah.
7:35>> There's like four or five different of pre-draft strategy where for one week this guy is the best pick on the board
7:41and then in two weeks you never draft him again for three months or whatever, right? And and then Just the retirement stuff.
7:48You're like, oh, like this guy, you know. Yeah, like what did Mike Evans retire? Did he go back to the Bucks or oh, shoot, actually he's on
7:54the 49ers now, right? So what does that mean? It's like I wasn't drafting Jaylen McMillan really before I mean he was in
8:00a draftable range, right? If the rankings, but I wasn't like I wasn't like, yeah, I think Jaylen McMillan's a pretty [ __ ] awesome pick and then two
8:07weeks later I'm like damn, uh I think I need to get a lot more Jaylen McMillan into my But you know, it's like there's
8:13ebbs and flows and all of that. So we can't we can't just like take what the market is right now and be like, okay,
8:19let's think about that's what it means it's going to be in May and certainly we can't say that's what it's going to be
8:23in August and September. They're all different games, but I think there are like some sort of general market shifts that kind
8:31of happen every year, right? It's a little bit, not entirely, but a little bit of, okay, what worked last year?
8:36Right? Or in in what I think this year, why it's so pronounced to me is sort of the same thing, similar things have
8:44worked back-to-back seasons.
8:47And that's when it really feels like we get recency bias is a thing with one fantasy football season. When it happens
8:53twice in a row, we like we think the world started two years ago, you know, like everything that happened before we forget the fact that,
9:00you know, yeah, Kyren and Bucky and and Ja'Marr Chase went for 50, you know, in a a best ball final and remember the CD
9:07season, you know, like all we forget that stuff fairly quickly. So it gets built into to the market and then you
9:13add in, like you said, the overall consensus. I mean, I think we all I don't even think it's a hot take to say
9:19that this rookie class really across the board is just not particularly strong.
9:23That like that really makes this current market to me very different than what we've experienced in in honestly in in many
9:31years. The sort of the combination of those two things.
9:36And the wide receiver class solid.
9:38It's not um um Uh but can I say unsp- Yeah, it's it's not it's not one of the best wide receiver classes we've ever
9:44we've ever seen. It's It's fine It's fine. It's Yeah, solid I think is a is an appropriate term. But >> It's pretty good. I would say it's
9:51pretty good. It's not like >> I'm just a smidge lighter than than you are.
9:55>> I think Tate Yeah, I like Tate a lot. Um I think Tate's a really good prospect.
10:01Uh I like I like Makai Lemon a solid amount.
10:06Um Jordan Tyson I think is like kind of boom bust, but also a pretty good bet.
10:12I've gotten uh higher on Casey Concepsion as I've gone gotten a little higher on Omar Cooper uh in part cuz the NFL seems to really like
10:21him. Uh and then I think it's deep after that.
10:26Like there's a big group of In the same way I'm like, "Man, this running back class like don't have a lot of guys that I would
10:34spend like a like a mid to late second-round pick on in a dynasty rookie draft, right? Like there's I think I have right now
10:42I have three total running backs that I think are worth a second-round pick or higher in the entire class.
10:52Um maybe I'd say up to like up to five depending on how the draft goes.
10:58Um but it's probably going to be like someone will fall out of that and you know, another running back would would
11:03replace that. But it's really quite There's like basically five guys I would spend a third-round pick on or or higher. Uh obviously Jeremiah
11:12Love, you know, is the going to be the 1.01 and I think that's correct. So So that's great, but after that there's
11:18just like really not much depth at wide receiver.
11:21There's like a bunch of guys. Um you have those top three receivers. You have Casey Concepsion. You have Omar Cooper, but then
11:29it's like six or seven guys that I would spend like a mid to late second or a third on and maybe more depending on the draft.
11:40There's like a few guys who could who could bump up into that group. So That's where I think the wide receiver
11:47depth is pretty good and actually kind of under appreciated. I think it's one of the things that like
11:56I think we're going to have drafts in you know in June or July like kind of that peak when we control and like the hardcore
12:08best ball market like kind of most controls everything like we are all and and Twitter highlights and and you know it's yeah we haven't reached that
12:19point. So it's all all whatever is going on in our brains just like our hive mind is like finish we finished hyping up all
12:26the guys we're going to hype and it's like a lot of rookies and then and then like all the and then you you do like
12:30the followers week after week and like it will be every rookie from now until the rest of the the draft window
12:38that whenever that peak is I think we're going to have a bunch of teams that like include Jeremy Bernard and
12:49Chris Brazell and Omar Cooper and Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion and they're like they've spent a sixth round pick and an
12:59eighth round pick and a tenth round pick and a twelfth round pick to get you know to get those receivers and
13:08right now you're like you know the highest you might take the first guy is like you know pick 115 overall or
13:14something.
13:15So that's where I to me the one one way that I think that I think like a lot of people drafting now will
13:24end up with the same group of receivers but they're going to spend way more.
13:28Now, I like Ted Ginn Jr. Ted Ginn Jr. could end up being a fifth-round pick and a total, you know, and and someone I'd be
13:35like, "Yeah, he's not really worth drafting anymore." So, there's going to be I think what you're you're wading into is a little bit of risk with this
13:41group where like >> Mhm. you know, in the micro, right? In any specific In the micro, the case the risk is really high. But in the overall
13:48Williams worth drafting? Right. But in But But in the if you just said rookie class wide receiver, the risk is Yeah. Overall
13:56high, but in any one pick that you might Right, like it's I It's so funny you said that. Uh apparently Reeves talked
14:02about his love for Ted Ginn Jr. And I like Ted Ginn Jr. fine. I like Ted Ginn Jr. Yeah. I'd specifically he came up in
14:06the Spike Week Discord and I said, "I'm trying This is the exact like the exact archetype of player that I've tried to
14:14keep my wits about it. Ever like this is the guy, the small school prospect who looks really good, numbers look fine,
14:21all this different kind of stuff that I would have got out over my skis on. And then exactly what would happen is what
14:26you just said. He goes in the fifth round, never to be heard from again.
14:29He's inactive on game days in the regular season and I'm like I I just drafted the biggest zero. I drafted 30%
14:35or whatever of of the biggest zero.
14:37Doesn't mean he won't hit or anything.
14:38I'm not even trying to make it about Ted Ginn Jr. But that's like sort of how I'm thinking about once we
14:43get to that level of the this wide receiver class. Something is probably a hit there, but also the risk is so high
14:49that I I I've been personally terrible at the at managing that part of it and I feel like I hurt specifically my big
14:56board teams, but honestly probably a lot of my teams taking on I want to take it it the the balancing act of the risk
15:03versus the, you know, versus the floor type stuff is still something I'm always trying to figure out and I would have
15:08screwed it up with like this rookie class because I'm not as enamored with it as you are, but I do think there's a
15:13lot of names you can latch on to that will get you that that you'll like and you that can become a runaway train for
15:19for you if if like, you know, they keep on yourself about it. I think uh that when you end up spending like an
15:28eighth round pick on Jeremy Bernard or or Chris Brazell or whatever it is.
15:36And all of this seems absurd, you know, cuz we're getting these guys at the end.
15:40But like you know, Chris Brazell has projected draft capital of 51. Jeremy Bernard's 55. Branch's 64. Like it's a good chance
15:50that one of these guys goes early, you know, to middle of the second round in a really good landing spot.
15:56And like that means like they're probably going to go kind of where Jaden Heggings did last year. Mhm.
16:02And I don't really want to do that.
16:05I'm not saying that these guys are like great eighth round picks, but I'm saying like they probably will go some of them
16:12will probably go in that like general range.
16:16Like even like Trey Sermon, right? Trey Sermon was going what? 11th or 12th last year? Mhm.
16:22So, I mean you're going to get These guys are going to move up. The ones who get draft capital like are going to move
16:28up. And then I think that just to add, I think the difficult part of that is someone will say, "Oh, so you're saying
16:34like when we get there like this guy's a you know, I need to take him in the eighth round or whatever." It's like the
16:40point is the guy can be a I don't feel so cozy about Jaden Heggings at pick 96, but I feel quite good about getting Jaden
16:48Heggings at He'd have been a good 19th round pick. Exactly.
16:51He'd have been a good 19th round pick.
16:53So, I'm just yeah, I mean I think you're getting the opportunity to get like you know, maybe two two ninth round wide
17:02receivers for free.
17:04Uh you know, and and it's like you're going to have to probably eat, you know, a few guys like Elijah Sermon
17:12was someone I took a ton of to begin and he's he's fallen down the board and it doesn't seem like the NFL's that
17:18interested. He's now projected to be a third round pick. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he was a day three pick. I
17:24still kind of like him. I think he's a little like Alec Ingold to me where like I he came out pretty well on my stuff
17:30even after he was a day three guy.
17:32Um and I think Surratt will probably look look draftable as like a round four wide receiver to me, but I don't love
17:40you know, I've cooled off on him a bit because I I'm worried about the draft capital. But like you know, I'm taking a little bit more
17:46Antonio Williams now who's you know, decent draft capital bet and Ted Hurst is projected 85. He's he's made a climb he used to be in the 100s. He's made a
17:54climb up. There does seem to be some interest in him from the NFL. He's a big dude who's fast. I mean he's he's sort
18:01of a classic guy to me. You want to talk about getting over out over your skis.
18:04The NFL usually gets out over their skis That is on the Ted Hursts of the world.
18:09>> Which does not help my [ __ ] problem.
18:11They're not helping me. I don't care at all. Welcome to ninth round Ted Hurst brother cuz he's he's probably going second round to some you know, poorly
18:19run franchise. This is why I love with the Malik Washingtons of the world. I'm like there are all these guys I love are
18:25going to fail. At least give me the the Island of Misfit Toys guys who still go in the 17th round of Right. Football
18:31drafts.
18:32Yeah. Bryce Lance I haven't taken a ton of. I'm like considering maybe that he will go higher than I thought he would.
18:38He's up to 88 on the board now on the on NFL Mock Draft database consensus board. So yeah, I mean like
18:47you know, Jacoby Lane I take some of.
18:48I've started to cool off cuz I'm worried he's a a day three pick ultimately. But like I said, you know, some of these guys will
18:57will be busts and bad 20th round picks.
18:59But like guess what? It's the 20th round. You know, that that is going to happen. Some of these guys I think are
19:04going to be huge hits from you know, like a roster construction point of view where you don't have to force.
19:12I'm using the I'm using this group basically to like not force wide receiver and I had a build you probably would have hated this build but I had
19:21Amon-Ra St. Brown. Let me see if I can find him real quick. I had like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice.
19:27And like I I think my third wide receiver is like Travis Homer.
19:31Like I just like pushed wide receiver >> you drafted a [ __ ] corner as your wide receiver three.
19:38Hey man, he's a second overall pick last year.
19:41He he plays a really good at corner.
19:43Um But like I and but then I took, you know, um a bunch of these a bunch of these wide receivers
19:53uh at the end of the draft. So No, this isn't a this is the one I pulled up was actually a zero running
19:59back team. It was very fun. Oh, I'd like to hear that one. I'll I'll tell you that one. This that'll be a palate
20:04cleanser.
20:05>> that is robust IDP team that you drafted. Yeah, it wasn't truly robust but it it was Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, David Montgomery, De'Andre Swift
20:14and Jaylen Warren.
20:15So it's, you know, it's looking looking set at running back, I'd say. And then it had uh Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice and
20:25then Travis Homer as my wide receiver three at pick 154.
20:29And then uh I got Rasheed Shaheed, Tank Dell, your boy Malik Washington, Zach Ertz, Branch, Ted Hurst and Antonio Williams.
20:37I like that. I like that just fine.
20:40Yeah, so like I'm the thing with Rice, right? You're like he's either going to get suspended or be like completely underpriced at
20:48pick 34.
20:49And then you take some swings and you take the three rookies.
20:53And I've I've got it's a Mahomes team with Kelsey and good running back team, you know, I got Kyler Murray who's been he's still
21:00undervalued, I think. So anyway, it's a it's a way, I think right now, to like I'm trying to build teams that are just
21:09that are like going to be like I'm going to like there's a drafter listening to this who like hates what I'm saying.
21:16And my hope is that I'm just drafting a team that like they will draft in Right.
21:21in July. I like that. And you know what I mean? But like it's just like a way better team of of that team because like
21:28once they see that draft capital come through for the right wide receivers, they will take them in round like nine and 10 and I have them for free. And I'm
21:36taking I'm I'm casting a wide net. I'm not trying to be super um you know, like I I don't know exactly
21:44which of these wide receivers are going to matter.
21:47Um but I do think some of them will matter uh because cuz the NFL seems interested. Like that's really what it
21:54is. It's not like I'm I'm like, "Oh, these pro- these prospects like they they look so great in all these metrics." Like
22:00some of them do, but they've started to move up like Concepcion, right? Um but like man, I mean, I wish I had more
22:06Omar Cooper from the beginning cuz he looks like he's he's going to bank the draft capital for sure, but you know, like Bernard, Branch,
22:13Williams, Malachi Fields, Elijah Sorat, Ted Hearst, uh Skylar Bell, Bryce the Lance, um Chris Brazell, Chris Bell, like all those guys are between 50
22:24and uh 88. I'm not drafting Skylar Bell and Bryce Lance so much right now. So I'm kind of keeping it between
22:30the guys at 50 and and uh 85 on the consensus board.
22:36Uh of those like but on none of those guys cost anything. Right. None of them cost anything. They're all 200 or later or
22:45180 or later maybe. The price gap between like a Denzel Boston and those guys is pretty alarming when you start to
22:51to to start to >> Yeah, makes the Denzel Boston click harder for sure. Yeah. Um and it's not it's not that he won't get higher draft
22:56capital. It's it's not that he's terrible and no one is saying that, but it's just like when you see all of those
23:00guys like you said, as you can't give them away. Um, and you compare it to the opportunity cost of of someone like Boston with just a a
23:09slightly higher uh, potential draft capital. And and I wouldn't even consider that a lock. I mean, we're still early in the in the process. I'm I
23:16am I'm not enamored with with Denzel Boston, I actually quite like Omar Cooper more than than him. But, um, I I
23:26It took me a bit, but I I think I'm Cooper over Boston as well.
23:30>> Coo- Cooper >> Sanderson kind of convinced me of that the other day.
23:32>> Indi- Indiana is a peculiar uh, like case study like team to sort of figure out cuz nothing truly like pops
23:40off the screen in like any remarkable way, even down to the guy who's going to go first overall in the in the NFL NFL
23:46draft. Um, so there's like a whole lot of sort of uh, vibing nuance you have to put around some of those guys, I think. And um,
23:55Omar is one of those guys that I think is a little bit more of a hand in dirt than something that's in
24:01like I've sort of tried to not get not get too into I'm trying not to I've swayed back and forth at times in my life of
24:10two hand in dirt, uh, which is that was I call that my Alec Pierce where I was like [ __ ] convinced that
24:17Alec Pierce was good and then he sucked ass for 3 years and I told myself I'm an idiot, stop doing that. And now like
24:23Alec Pierce just made $30 million a year. Yeah, but like >> in the NFL.
24:29But, why? Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't pay him $30 million a year either. But, it it But, to anyway, uh, as you can tell,
24:35my brain is in a little bit of a pretzel. But, I think Omar's a a decent like balancing act of of the two. I think when you turn him on
24:41and watch, I think he has some some appealing I forget what the alumnus grew up the exact stat. I need to memorize it
24:47or or put a post-it note or something, but he's like the only receiver in the country, like one of the only receivers
24:52in the ex- last x amount of years who generated a certain percentage of his yards from YAC and then a certain
24:59percentage of his yards from like downfield targets as well. So it's like it's it's a very unique skill set of like he's kind of Debo underneath with
25:07the football in his hands, but he also can do the, you know, down the field both get open down the field and also
25:14contested catch down the field, which is like a he's not a perfect prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but that
25:19that's what is like awesome for an NFL player to have.
25:22>> It's starting to remind me a little bit of like Zay Flowers. Um he's like another four-year guy who like didn't
25:27really like check all the boxes, but he started to be like, you know, and he went middle of first or went in the 20s.
25:34So, you know, he was he was a guy that like I would have vocally been out on in like 2019, but I
25:43was actually like kind of in on.
25:46Um And like yeah, this guy's he's not as high upside of a prospect as I normally go for, but like he's
25:55probably going to be good. Like that was kind of where I got to on Flowers.
25:59Um And like I'm still in on Flowers. I think Flowers is a really good pick now, but >> It's eventually it's going to happen.
26:06Eventually it's going to happen.
26:07>> of sort of happened a few times. It just like never fully happens enough. He's not like >> he had the the the year you and I made
26:14the same amount of money in the best ball finals even though I beat you by a million. Uh what's what Zay finally had a big a big he
26:23caught like a yard touchdown in that game. That was A.J. and Waddle and everything. So that was That was That was fun, but it it didn't result in but
26:31Coop Cooper's payday.
26:33I will say that I mean like Cooper uh again, not a guy I'm taking like a ton of right now, but I think it's like
26:42he's someone I've been trying to think about how do I get a little bit more of um even now as he's risen because he's a
26:51guy like you want to talk about someone who could be a seventh or eighth round pick. I mean Omar Cooper was first
26:55round. I mean even higher like depending on the situation that he lands on, you know, the team he lands on like
27:03we what were we doing um Matthew Golden in what round five and six by the end? Yep. You know, like you
27:10you that could happen.
27:11>> And he didn't even have a clean path to playing time like it Omar Cooper could land on like the [ __ ] Ravens like
27:16speaking of Zay. Like they just get their they just get their next Zay and it's like Dude, Bateman and Tez Walker are his
27:23competition and likely is gone and they're not playing as many tight ends anymore.
27:26>> surprised too by like the people who like there's people who won't take Omar Cooper now who if he lands on the Ravens
27:34in the first round will declare that he is their wide receiver one. Yeah.
27:38>> And like obviously he's the wide receiver one and if you don't think he's the wide receiver one then you don't
27:41know what you're talking about because they just took him in the first round, you dumbass.
27:45It's like well he's been he's been projected to go around one this whole time. Yeah. Why are you guys taking him
27:50in the first round?
27:51>> for him or whatever and you love the landing spot for this guy and it's like but that's I'm glad >> That's going to happen. I'm glad you
27:59circled back to that cuz that was the takeaway that like as you phrased it that way where you you were you were
28:03saying because this is generally what happens is someone's hate watching and they're like everything you just said is wrong. I disagree with all the player
28:09takes and the all that kind of stuff.
28:11>> you to tell Omar Cooper over Jordan Addison in a month.
28:14>> you can also do that to yourself. And that's actually something that I that really hit home with me because I've
28:21tried to whatever cheesy phrase you want to use but like I always say like I'm going to take my medicine on X player. That's how I felt
28:29about Matthew Golden.
28:31Right? I didn't really like him as a prospect. I didn't even think the landing spot was that good other than I
28:35know the Packers have a good offense but like they had like six wide they they had so many wide receivers they had to move one to corner or
28:42something another another corner wide receiver. Like I didn't love it but I was like I don't know, man. He's a first round pick in
28:49the NFL draft, and I don't really have like a lot of super strong reasons to take some big stance away from him. So,
28:55I'm like, I'm going to take right or I'm going to eat my vegetables Mhm. of Matthew Golden. You know, I'm not going to I may not even get to my
29:028%, right? Maybe I take 4% or whatever.
29:04But, I I I don't I don't feel a reason why I need to take a like I feel really strongly about in this
29:12silly game of best ball is like probably the most important thing you can do is figuring out like your your zero your
29:18your true fades. I don't want to hear these soft fades and all that whatever these stupid things we come up with.
29:24Like, who is you you're you don't draft them. Right? Like, I'm not drafting that guy. That's like the most important thing you can do. Second most important
29:31thing to write is who is your highest exposure players. And then everybody else, that's So, there's like 5 to 10% of the guys that you're like, okay, this
29:38these are the guys that are going to for the most part define my season. And then these are the guys that are going to
29:43define my season cuz if they crush, I'm cuz I'm not taking any of them.
29:47The rest of the [ __ ] is like whatever.
29:49But, if they're in that whatever group, which often times rookies who you may not have loved, but get draft capital or
29:57a landing spot that you like, they end up in that middle group. And if you're willing to put them in that middle group
30:04at right at a steeper price all because you ended up sort of wrong on the evaluation or the landing spot or
30:10whatever, why would you not take them now?
30:13Why would you Why would you know, you should take them at the cheaper price or at least when Best Ball Mania opens, right? In
30:19May or whatever late April. Like, all right, let's get a let's get a little bit of this cuz then when they rise, I
30:25won't feel so squeamish that I full faded the Packers potential next great wide receiver in the eighth round or what You know what I
30:32mean? Like, that's the kind of I'm trying to get better at that, and I think the way that you phrased it is
30:38perfect. Like, that's an eat my vegetables guy. That's a take my medicine guy.
30:42So, like now's a great time to take some of your vegetables because look, the $10 you spent on the big board drives is still
30:48$10 you spent it's two puppies. What's the difference? You're So now maybe you know, later on you don't feel as uncomfortable about not having that guy
30:55when it didn't work out.
30:56>> Yeah. Well, you end up not chasing as much, right? Like if you don't take cuz Matthew Golden was a little bit Omar
31:03Cooper E last year in this part of the the draft window although he got more expensive than Cooper is now.
31:10Which I mean Cooper might and probably will get more expensive as we go. Yeah.
31:15Um but you know, Matthew Golden was someone like I was taking taking him over Trey Harris reasonably early and I remember
31:22we talked about like you're like this dude's not like I mean and frankly he probably is way worse than Trey Harris. So you know,
31:30fair enough, but I think Yeah, but >> the the draft capital element >> Six of one, half a dozen of the other.
31:36>> Right. I mean And if not there's no any fantasy points. So who did Did anyone hear the tree fall tree fall
31:42if nobody scored any [ __ ] fantasy >> Yeah.
31:44Yeah, but I mean like that was the the Golden one was pretty easy to see coming from a draft capital perspective and so then
31:55you don't chase and chase him up and when he's going in like the fifth rounds it was easier having taken him in the the big board.
32:03It's not like I never took him in in Best Ball Mania or whatever, but it was easier to wave goodbye to this prospect who was truly just a
32:13bet on draft capital and a 40 time.
32:16Um you know, and he was like an early declared guy like he was sort of theoretical upside there.
32:22>> Big big time recruit and then of course his best his best games when he did pop a little bit were in the time when everyone is
32:31watching, right? He didn't do it in October against whoever. He did it in the college football playoffs against Arizona State.
32:38>> his teammate might have been good, but then, you know, had this like off-the-field thing pop up and then he doesn't get drafted. So like but it was
32:45so it was all like in >> Remember the Quinn Ewers >> retrospect you'd be like, "See, there's so many reasons to think he's good." But
32:51then in retrospect also it's like well, that's pretty shaky profile actually.
32:57The best part is the amount of people who said "Trust me, all these Texas guys are awesome. It's Quinn Ewers, dude." Quinn
33:04Ewers sucks. And to be fair, Quinn Ewers is not good for the NFL. Yeah, yeah.
33:09Every one of those Texas players has failed.
33:12Every single one.
33:13>> I still think AD Mitchell might be good.
33:15Yeah, he and he might and he might be he might be the best one and he was the quickest fail. He failed [ __ ]
33:20immediately, dude.
33:23And he might in year five or whatever, AD Mitchell you're like, "Damn, AD Mitchell had a thousand yards." You know, and Xavier Worthy's [ __ ]
33:29selling insurance.
33:30>> be shocked if AD Mitchell was making 30 million a year in four years from now?
33:35can do it, [ __ ] anybody can do it.
33:37Okay.
33:39But like Ja'Tavion People are you know, Ja'Tavion Sanders, right? All that whole offense. Worthy, Sanders, AD Mitchell, on into Golden, into Bond. Everything we convinced
33:50ourselves and look, I I can be just as guilty of it. I'm just mostly joking around. But it it is it is just funny how sometime and and
33:59sometimes it does work out that way, right? The quarterback is terrible. And like so you got to kind of got to write
34:03some of this stuff off. And then but then sometimes it's like, "No, you know, I mean, Quinn Ewers for a college
34:09quarterback at least is competent." And it reminds me a little You mentioned Kyler before as like a pretty good best ball pick. It's like
34:17do I think do I want Kyler Murray leading my franchise if I'm trying to go win a Super Bowl? Of course not. It it's
34:22but is Kyler Murray competent enough to get the ball to Justin Jefferson? Of course. Like yes, of course. You know what I mean?
34:29Yeah. They just He like They just had J.J. McCarthy. They just had Max Brosmer against the Seattle defense. Like, you know, there That was [ __ ] hilarious.
34:37That was the the Max Brosmer over whatever one and a half turnovers or I forget what I bet.
34:43It was like the greatest It was like the greatest I bet Seattle defense to score a touchdown that week. It was like the
34:48great like, yeah, generational generational wealth against But that's what they were dealing with, dude. Guys who could not hit the Max Brosmer can't
34:56even throw it that far. And J.J.
34:58McCarthy can throw it a country mile, but you don't know where the [ __ ] it's going when you You neither does he.
35:02Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
35:05Yeah, it's Yeah. Anyway, uh these wide receivers are going to move up, I think.
35:14Taysom Hill on that. So, uh what I do want to ask is, all right, so >> And some of them will go to go to zero,
35:19basically.
35:20>> Go to zero, of course. That's just Welcome to pre-draft.
35:22>> That's the nature of things.
35:23>> Um contests.
35:25What about though So, if they're moving up what's moving down? And I'll lead the witness a little bit. I'm not necessarily saying these are going to
35:34move down, but the mid-tier quarterback prices right now are through the [ __ ] roof.
35:44This is like, you know, trying to get nosebleeds at the Super Bowl. Like, it's in like, yeah, you want Kyler now? Guess
35:50what? He's going to be in the top 100 so tomorrow or something like that, right?
35:53Like, any any quarterback with a pulse I I think for a variety of reasons that's a little bit of a natural pre-draft
36:01effect. So, like, comparing to May and August >> some pre-draft element to that as well, yeah. Because there's so much Once you
36:07get past the like total locked-in studs in the first four or five rounds, there's a lot of uncertainty. Right.
36:13>> Right. Like, the zero running back candidates are really squeamish because you're like, I don't know Dylan Warren looks good, but are they going to bring
36:18in Rico Dowdle or are they going to bring in some bum? You know, Basil Tuton looks good, but are they going to you
36:23know, oh, they brought in Chris Rodriguez, you know, like there's a lot of uncomfortability in those rounds. So, the quarterback prices
36:30Yeah, I I I agree. We don't got to do that one today.
36:33Uh I've I've already fought I've already fought that battle. Three three times.
36:38Uh Can't take Bashaun Tuit in the eighth round. It just doesn't make any sense.
36:41>> Okay, we're going to do it. We're going to do it. Uh What? Why? Chris Chris Rodriguez was so irrelevant to 99.9%
36:49of fantasy football players last year that while he was on the roster next to a guy who hadn't played football in a
36:56year and was a seventh-round pick, we we pushed Bill up into like the 70s.
37:02Right? Once Brian Robinson was gone, Chris Rodriguez was on that team.
37:07And and we didn't care.
37:08Chris Rodriguez ends up being the starter, right? Now, that's they split the backfield. They split the backfield three-ways, right? Passing down back and
37:15and those two guys. Now, Chris Rodri- because he got paid more than you thought he should get paid, Chris Rodriguez lands in Jacksonville.
37:25And the the whole world is sending out the [ __ ] bat signal on fade Bashaun Tuit.
37:31Like just let Travis Etienne go and replace him with Chris Rodriguez and all of a sudden that's a huge concern. You
37:36want >> That's not a fade signal, guys. I Yeah, I I don't get it. I'm not saying take Bashaun Tuit in the at the two-three
37:41turn or something like that, but I'm saying if if Bashaun Tuit is good, Chris Rodriguez is not a [ __ ] hindrance to
37:49him being a fantasy smash at pick 60 or whatever. No.
37:54How many what What's the most receptions in a game you think Chris Rodriguez had?
37:58One? One.
38:00That's correct. How does he have double digits in his And when I say most in a game, I don't mean last year.
38:07I mean in his entire career.
38:09This dude has never had more than one reception in a game. Dude, I drafted a shitload of >> games. a shitload of Chris Rodriguez
38:18last year. Like a [ __ ] because it it was It was of what we're talking about.
38:21>> I drafted a You know what? I took a bunch of them, the eliminator.
38:26Awesome eliminator pick. Yeah.
38:28Yeah, and he's a decent eliminator pick now, I think. Cuz I I think he'll probably have a role early.
38:33I'm not saying Chris Rodriguez is a bad pick. I'm saying Chris Rodriguez is not a hindrance to Bashaul Tuitan being a
38:39good pick himself.
38:41Oh, yeah. I mean, that's what you're hoping for, right? Like with Bashaul Tuitan, someone, you know, I've been in on Bashaul Tuitan
38:47like before he was drafted. I was in on him. So, I'm I'm I'm I'm you know, maybe there's a bias here. I think, you
38:55know, maybe maybe I've just been ahead of the curve the whole time, you know.
38:59I'll say I'll say the second one.
39:00>> Never wrong, just early, brother. Never wrong, just early. I just hope Tuitan is not your Alec Pierce. We don't need to
39:05do three more years of these podcasts.
39:07>> Yeah, let's let's have it hit sooner.
39:09And I frankly don't care what he gets paid. I just like him to score fantasy points.
39:13The the Bashaul Tuitan thing, I mean, like it's never they were never going to give the entire backfield to like just Tuitan and
39:24Laquon Allen, you know, like they were always going to probably bring in somebody.
39:29I would say of the somebodies, Chris Rodriguez isn't like the best-case scenario, cuz cuz he did play pretty well last year, and I think like does
39:37pose like a threat to a mediocre player.
39:41Like if Tuitan's not that good, then Rodriguez will be a problem.
39:45Rodriguez has a skill. A good Yeah, he's a skill. He's good. He has a skill. He's a competent zone runner. I He's nothing
39:51special there, but he's I think he's competent. But like, you know, compared to I don't know, like 3 years ago Devin
39:57Singletary type of guy, you know, like a guy who kind of who comes in and is like really trustworthy in all facets,
40:05uh frankly, like a Rashaad White would have made me more nervous. A Kenny Gainwell would have made me way, way, way more
40:12nervous.
40:12>> Gainwell would have been a disaster.
40:14Gainwell would have been it would have been certainly, you would not be moving Basha up from where we were taking him if they
40:21if they took Gainwell cuz I think you'd probably I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm I was already high on him and I'm and I'm moving him up
40:27after his rookie season. He's yeah I don't know if anyone moved him down you're just you zeroed him out he's one
40:32of the guys you're you've decided you're not going to have a single share of cuz I mean yeah he's going at like the
40:38what the four five turn now or the five five six turn yeah five six turn sorry. Yeah five six turn. I was visualizing the board
40:46and I visualized it and I said the yeah I mean Tuton is is like you know he's a day three guy who didn't get that
40:58much run as a rookie who didn't like pop as as a breakaway runner. Oh can he not can the four three guy not actually
41:06break away or God God forbid the guy doesn't break an 80 yarder in a a small amount of touches and we're writing off the fact that he's
41:14a big guy. But he's super consistent which to me is like I thought he looked I thought he looked great.
41:19Like you know with like the idea of we can have priors and stuff if you have a guy who is like a really good breakaway
41:27runner with like borderline elite speed you sub four four speed and then you're going to have a small sample would you prefer that data to
41:35tell you that like he's really consistent at the NFL level or that he breaks long runs. I'd rather have it tell me that he's consistent cuz
41:42now I'm like this dude might be awesome. Yeah. You know. This is this this is the this is like the RJ Harvey bear case. This is
41:51like what happened with RJ Harvey was really inconsistent was really inconsistent so much so they're like we can't we can't let him lead the
41:59backfield heading into so now we're in this weird awkward spot with RJ Harvey where we're like I don't know if he's
42:04good I don't know if the team trusts him after that rookie season like I don't he could get better right any
42:11any young player can get better These things can change. Right, he can become more consistent, but he was already a little bit of a boom bust a little bit
42:17of a boom bust. And he was a massive boom bust.
42:19>> And we know we know NFL teams don't like that. They want they want consistency.
42:24They want a guy, you know, who hits the right hole and you know, they can trust around the goal line and short yardage. Um and and by
42:31the way, Bijan Robinson he had a 47% breakaway percentage uh in college, which is excellent. Um It's higher than TreVeyon Henderson, who
42:39was at 45%. The Jags threw him like real receiver routes.
42:45Like like they'd motion him out, he'd run a corner uh against a linebacker and they'd throw him, you know, like an over the shoulder
42:52and he and he made the play.
42:54You know, they design they design some >> He's a good receiver, too. He's a he's a >> Yeah. And so I'm not trying to make it
42:59>> I like the Gainwell stuff would be way worse because that's part of the Now, I know they have Lequon Allen there and
43:05and he did kind of have that like D'Onta Foreman type of Wally type role, Yeah, Lequon is like D'Onta Samaje Perine
43:11type.
43:11>> Yeah. type of Which is which is not ideal, but it it's better than Gainwell Gainwell is can like And and look, it was just one year with
43:19Rodgers or or whatever, but like he was like a real weapon. Like a legit real weapon as >> Yeah. Gainwell I think Gainwell can I
43:27mean, I thought Gainwell could play coming in. Like that Gainwell is one of those types of prospects who he's like a
43:32Tootney type of guy who never got a chance. You know.
43:36>> awesome at Memphis.
43:38Yeah, he was really, really good at Memphis. Um So so Gainwell is someone that like I I kind of believe in as a player. So if he
43:45showed up and then obviously he can do a number of things. He's a versatile player. You know, he can run the ball
43:50more than he really gets credit for and he's a good receiver. So that would have been like that's the type of player that
43:56would have really concerned me with To'oto'o cuz you're bringing in a guy who might like hey, To'oto'o could be this like
44:01versatile guy who gets used around the goal line, maybe doesn't have a total lock on touches, but he he's a he's a
44:05receiver. He he's explosive. He's going to you know be in this really fun offense. And then it's like here's a guy who like does all those
44:14same things and might actually be better.
44:16Um that and Kenny and Kenny Gainwell.
44:18That would really scare me. Rodriguez to me is like most likely a guy who comes in and it's like helping fill in touches the way there's
44:26there's always a guy who helps who helps fill in. So uh you know I think Rodriguez is fine. I took him on that zero running back team
44:33I promised to tell you about. I I took I took I took Chris Rodriguez. So uh Yeah we got to save this team sharing
44:40episode that you got going on here from your IDP leagues that you are sharing. Number number one running back on this team is
44:46Rico Dowdle.
44:48Uh dude I two zero running back. Yeah I I I actually quite like Rico Dowdle.
44:52When poor Jaylen Warren gets banished to the sideline cuz Mike McCarthy [ __ ] loves Rico Dowdle, that's really going to not be fun and then we'll we'll
45:01eventually get Jaylen Warren on a new team and we'll do that whole song and dance again. You know what I did here?
45:06Uh I took A.J. Brown at pick 27.
45:10And then I double tapped Drake Maye and Jalen Hurts.
45:14I got the stack covered baby. I love it.
45:16I love it. Uh wait till the Rams trade for uh the Rams and their Madden off Yeah that would be that would be no fun.
45:25That was a that's a great rumor uh that I I I I still feel unsure of like if someone's just with us or something like that
45:32that like there's all these A.J. Brown trade rumors and all they kept mentioning was the team that's looking into him was the Rams. And I was just
45:38like this is like sixth grade me playing Madden. Like what is Sean McVay Sean McVay doing dude? He uh like you do
45:46have to fill out a full roster. But uh with that with those guys uh I don't know. Although did you see I was going
45:54to say they're putting a seven on seven team together but did you see what the US like the non NFL uh flag football team did to the NFL
46:03players in the >> they spanked them, huh? beat the living out of uh, the NFL players and I forget who it was that was talking so
46:10much [ __ ] you know, the NFL players about like, yeah, come on. Like, you know, we're professional football players and they got that ass beat by
46:19the professional flag football players.
46:20It was awesome.
46:22That's great.
46:23Um, I so the court the quarterback thing though, it's it's funny you said that obviously joking about covering the A.J.
46:29Brown trade.
46:31But the the whole quarterback like environment I'm I'm I'm still a little bit torn on like how does this shift?
46:39So right now, uh, hold on, let me pull it up cuz I I did this just just the other day. So the top six quarterbacks go
46:47about the same as they did last year and have gone in most years. But if we go from from QB7 to QB12
46:55you know, so still sort of your QB1-ish, right? That's kind of through that that generally pick 100 range. Last year, that was through pick 104. That's down
47:03to pick 90 right now.
47:07Is that big board? Maybe some. But I also think the rookie class stuff is important in that regard. The lack of
47:16back-end cheap quarterbacks that we've had for many years that you could draft back there is important in that regard.
47:23So it's like it's like a feeding frenzy in drafts for quarterbacks.
47:28>> The other thing is that even in 18-round drafts, you know, with with the sidekick and and using Sims, we can like get a
47:35better sense of roster construction stuff and the Sims like three quarterback in 18-round drafts. So when you get to 20-round drafts
47:46um it likes it. It likes three quarterback, you know, and it does it I'll get recommendations when I when I go zero running back,
47:57um it will often push up quarterback.
48:03And it op- it it pushes up quarterback in like it's like, "Hey, how about Drake May, Pat Mahomes, you know, uh
48:12Kyler Murray's, you know, frequently suggested, but you know, like like even like um above that, like a like a Purdy, Mahomes, May, or Prescott,
48:22you know, Caleb Williams, Lawrence, you know, like like those guys getting a few getting getting like a quarterback room that's loaded because
48:34in this environment if you go zero running back, your odds of like what we always talk about wanting to do with zero running back of not just
48:45keeping pace, but actually like hitting on enough of these guys to where like our running back rooms are strong as the
48:50guys who spend all the the capital at running back, and we're lapping them at wide receiver. Mhm. It's it's harder to
48:56pull off right now, I think, in these rooms because we don't have those rookies. We don't have like this really deep group of zero running back targets.
49:05There are some guys, but it's not like this incredible, rich, you know, underpriced group of running backs. So, uh I what it ends up happening
49:16like some of these builds I end up going with running back rooms that are okay. You know, I'm taking my shots later. I'm
49:25hoping, you know, like a Nick Singleton breaks out or whatever, but you know, I actually don't have like eight running backs. I've got like five to six running
49:35backs, and I've got three really awesome quarterbacks, and I probably have like good tight ends.
49:40So, I'm good I'm like I'm just like really good at the onesies plus receiver, and then my running back room, you know, I'm not I'm hoping it's not a
49:48full punt, but it's probably not ever going to be the strength of the team.
49:51I'm I'm hoping to find like two running backs who fill uh give me enough points in the playoffs and then like I'm
49:59I'm posting like crazy scores in each of the playoff weeks at quarterback cuz I I've got a a ton of upside at that position.
50:07Um And so, you know, I think that's that's part of it in my opinion that like three quarterback I think it's generally been undervalued.
50:17Um I think it's undervalued in more with 20 rounds instead of 18 and it's undervalued in some ways because of like what the
50:26way these extreme builds you know like and it's the same way. Like if I go with a heavier running back build and
50:34then you get to this portion of receivers that's not that interesting.
50:39I'll tend to get recommendations as well. Like, "Hey, just grab three quarterbacks. Just be really strong at quarterback. Put up a bunch of points at
50:45quarterback and then your receivers are mostly going to be, you know, these top two guys like that Amon-Ra, Rashee Rice team and then
50:54you'll fill out other receiver points, but like your receiver depth is never going to be a super big strength.
50:59Uh it's going to be good enough and you're going to like lap people at quarterback, which is helpful, actually.
51:06So, I think I think we just probably were under-pricing quarterback. Like on that on that uh Hurts-Maye team, like I have
51:12Stroud on that team. I didn't stop, you know, I didn't stop at two. So, I think I will stop at two a lot more
51:19often in 18 rounds because the opportunity cost, right, of the extra roster spot. But here >> pool the player pool weeds out, too.
51:26Like you know, it's when when like you said we you just talked about earlier like some of these guys are going to go to zero or
51:32whatever. It's like, "Well, we're drafting those guys as if they're not going to zero right now and eventually they will." So, there's just fewer
51:37draftable players, which makes it tougher, etc.
51:40Yeah, and it's also like sometimes with the extra roster spot you think like, "Oh, I've got got extra roster spot like
51:46at the end of the draft, What can I do?
51:48What can I tack on in round 20? It's like, well, in round 20 you don't really want to tack on a quarterback, but you
51:52could tack on a quarterback in round 11.
51:57And then you can say, you know, that extra roster spot the literal extra roster spot will probably be spent on a
52:02receiver or tight end.
52:04You know, once you get that down that deep, but you know, you have the extra roster spot in that middle round to take
52:12quarterback. So, I think that I think the quarterback prices will probably drop a little bit as we lose that flexibility of the two extra roster
52:18spots, but I don't know that they're going to drop a ton or at least I don't think they necessarily should drop a ton. Like
52:25we don't have I don't want to make a bunch I don't want to bet on like Ty Simpson, you know? I don't want to like these are
52:33like true like scratch-off quarterbacks. I mean, Michael Penix maybe a a little bit depending on on, you know, like I think he probably
52:43is going to start for them to close the year.
52:45>> Number two, uh Somebody heard you talking about these shit-ass quarterbacks and was like >> Yeah, but I don't want to really like
52:49I'm not trying to take a bunch of Michael Penix, like you know? Like what you know, there's not some years you got great quarterback bets at the
52:57end of the year. Some years you get you get to take Bo Nix in the 18th round. In 17th, 18th round Bo Nix
53:03day one starter for for the Broncos. You get you get Drake May, you know, in the what? He was like four four maybe a 13th round
53:11>> reason he moved up is cuz you took him.
53:13Yeah, it's cuz I was taking him. I don't know if he would have moved up to 18th round. Remember the great Sam Howell
53:18debates?
53:19Sam Howell, yeah. Sam whether whether or not, you know, we agree on whether the guy is a good pick, like the upside was
53:27obviously that like there is not a Sam Howell back right like you said, it's okay. Michael Yeah, Michael Penix is maybe the closest
53:34>> not Sam Howell because Sam Howell was starting day one. Like that's where And that's off of his third ACL tear.
53:40Right.
53:41Par- partial partial, just kidding.
53:43>> But close enough.
53:44>> Once you've done it twice already, I think a partial just [ __ ] counts.
53:48Like, do you even have You just don't even have anything left. So, Sorry, Michael. Uh We just went ahead and tore it the rest
53:55of the way cuz you've torn it so many times before.
53:57>> cut that middle part of your leg out and just said, "Why don't you try without these things? Cuz they ain't helping you
54:03very much." Anyway, it's like if Tyjae Spears hurt his knee, like what would they do next? There's nothing.
54:10He's I think he doesn't have He's never confirmed that he has two ACLs. He's been asked directly and he's like, "Crazy weather we've been having, huh?"
54:19Uh what I what I love about So, you know, we've discussed before and I've actually had people I'm not as big
54:28of a proponent as you of the three-quarterback thing, but what's what I love about it is A, of course I everything that you just said makes
54:36perfect logical sense. I get it. I think that's a great way to win.
54:40I think the but the like sort of how you defined the why behind it is the thing that really matters and it is it is like
54:51it's what makes roster construct like good roster construction in in bestball.
54:55You said, "I'm going to have strengths on this team and I'm going to have a weakness. You will never leave a draft where you don't
55:05have Even if you think it doesn't have a weakness, it has a weakness. It's It's not It's just not possible to draft a
55:12you know, heading into the season. Now, chaos may shake out, right? You can find Puka Nacua in the last round, sure. Now,
55:18your wide receivers are great. No [ __ ] Right? But like, heading into the season, you cannot build a team without a
55:24weakness, right? What And And the weaknesses all vary, right? Just inherently two-quarterback has a level of risk {slash} weakness that three-quarterback doesn't have.
55:34Right? You can punt quarterback and even if you draft three, punting it is very different. That right? A two tight end
55:40versus three, elite tight end versus all these things are different, right?
55:43Strengths and weak weaknesses.
55:45But the good roster construction says, "I know I'm weak here.
55:50So, I better be [ __ ] awesome everywhere else."
55:54Right? And that's the thing. You're like, "Look, this zero running back team, I kind of What you're hoping for is of course you
56:01hope to hit the scratch off lottery ticket. No [ __ ] That's that's That would That's the dream, right? Find Kyren or Bucky or
56:07whatever.
56:08But like, I'll get by cuz I'm scoring so many points at the three other positions.
56:14Yeah.
56:15>> That I just need to scrape by at running back and hope of course to get lucky in the playoffs. But also like, I don't
56:22know. If I just keep dominating at the other positions and I limp by at running back and nobody goes crazy. I know it
56:28feels like that's impossible, right? Cuz Derrick Henry goes for 50 in the play and and you know, Jonathan Taylor and these guys go. But it doesn't always
56:34happen that way. Sometimes the RB1's like 23 points. Right.
56:38>> like, "I don't know, man. My two guys both got 16.
56:42And I outscored you at all the other positions. So like you you built around a strength. You said, "This is the story
56:49of how this thing wins." That's [ __ ] best ball roster construction, right? We do all this debate and we can argue till
56:55the cows come home about, right? Like you said, like quarterback, three quarterback is undervalued, three tight end, four tight end, zero running back,
57:01robust running back, like all this kind of [ __ ] we can argue about it. At the end of the day, the goal of each
57:06strategy is, "I'm really strong at this one position. I'm really weak at this one position and here's the story in in
57:11how I win because of those strengths and weaknesses." And it's like, I feel like we [ __ ] forget that, dude. Like I I
57:17feel like because we're so deep in it now, like when we first started talking about all this stuff years ago, you
57:23know, we we we started to figure this Now that we've figured that out, we've like leaped two steps too far ahead and
57:30forgot like the why behind why you do any of this [ __ ] Yeah, I think it's also okay to be like
57:36overpowered at all four positions. Like you don't need cuz I think we we think about being overpowered at at wide receiver, you know, running
57:46back, you know, it's you don't want to get like too crazy running back, but like if you have you know, like if you go three X running
57:54back and you tack on a fourth around like if you go three straight running backs and Judarian Price and then Price
57:59ends up being like the you know, the Seahawks pick at 32 or something. Mhm. You're pretty overpowered at running back. Um
58:07and so uh we'd normally kind of think about the two main positions where you can where you can flex guys rather than
58:14the onesies, but I think it's totally fine to be overpowered at uh I got some really fun, you know, like bully tight end type teams last year
58:24that, you know, I'm like sweating like, oh man, I like please get through, please get through the final. Um you know, and then you've got like two
58:31cracks at at like Bowers-McBride was was one of the teams I was like really hoping would make the final for BBM for me. Um it's
58:39like, man, I've got two cracks at just like the tight end going nuts. Um and I think it's fine to be
58:49kind of especially because like, look, I spent in this room I I spent pick 70 on May and pick 75 on Hurts. So, it's not like I'm
58:57spending It's probably the other thing we should talk about here is that Allen is still really expensive. He's pick 29.
59:08God, is he the worst pick on the board?
59:11He's up there.
59:12It's It's pretty It's pretty hard to justify how he's pick 29 and then Lamar's pick 50 51?
59:20I don't get that at all. Yeah, Jayden Daniels uh 63. Right, like uh just literally less than a year ago these
59:29guys were all pretty close together and now Allen has remained the same. Yeah.
59:34>> In the 60s, Maye's now in the 70s.
59:37Uh Maye like was way Maye would I would like I had a dynasty team that I won with where I had
59:45Josh Allen and Drake Maye and I started Drake Maye over Josh Allen and had I not, I wouldn't have won.
59:50Like it was predictable and it worked.
59:53Why You know, like it's not not to say that like Maye should be going over Allen. I would take Allen ahead of Maye,
59:59but it's not Allen doesn't strike me as locked as locked in as um as his ADP would would suggest.
60:09>> Dude, they're running it back with the same brain-dead guy calling the plays who's been calling the plays that has kept Allen in check for multiple seasons
60:19and all they did was add deep They upgraded what? Josh Palmer to DJ Moore? Like you know, what is functionally changing
60:28about Josh Allen other than when the game gets crazy right? When when the game gets [ __ ] wild, Josh Allen is going to do stuff
60:35that other fantasy quarterbacks just just can't do. So, that that's what someone would say. It's like, right? To to play devil's advocate, what someone
60:42would say is like I understand it's rich. I understand like the you know, like the to use a DFS reference like a a point per dollar,
60:49Josh Allen is terrible, right? You would much rather have Jaden Daniels and Maye and Dak and and whatever, but like he can get 50 in any week and like But
60:58isn't it like it's like Josh Allen's like 8,500 and like the rest of the quarterbacks are 6,500 or something?
61:03Right. That's what it feels like.
61:05>> Yeah, that's exactly what it is. Why don't we just draft the guy like okay, like have fun with 8,500 Josh Allen. Like he could
61:13beat me, but I'm not doing that, you know? And by the way, this isn't the only slate in the pricing sense. It's
61:19the only slate of games that we'll see, but we are going to see prices shift.
61:24Some of the prices might come up on these other quarterbacks post-draft. I suspect that they probably will because, you know, we're going to be doing a
61:32little bit less of the three quarterbacks, and so then, you know, you kind of want to prioritize getting the good quarterbacks a little bit more for
61:38two quarterback builds. It's like opens up a roster spot. They probably gain a little bit of value. Mhm. And so, maybe
61:44then Allen, you know, by comparison kind of kind of, you know, doesn't look like as bad of a pick. So, but like, I don't
61:51know. Right now, I just it's a I have a really hard time understanding the gap between Allen and Lamar, you know, if you just want to
61:58leave it to that. And then, yeah, and then Da- and then Daniel's Burrow.
62:02>> People hate Lamar, dude. May- like, these are >> The fantasy football community that drives this market that I can't ever
62:09figure out hates Lamar Jackson.
62:11It's crazy.
62:12>> Yeah, imagine Lamar Jackson with the guy who's just uh, you know, working with Ben Johnson and comes from from the Sean
62:19Payton tree. Like, then there's no upside there. Yeah.
62:24There's no upside there. He's been working with a bunch of schmucks for years.
62:28>> even taking that much Lamar because he is um, you know, he is still more expensive than that than some of the
62:33other guys, but I'm not saying Lamar's the best pick. I'm not saying Lamar's the best pick, but if we're comparing these these two things, like, you have
62:40MVP quarterbacks who both run and have nuclear individual week upside, and they're the best quarterbacks on the planet, and one goes two and a half
62:47rounds cheaper than than the other one does.
62:50Yeah.
62:51So, I I think with the quarterback stuff, it it it it will shake up a little bit, but um, it's
63:01it is not It's cozy right now to kind of sit there in that pocket and take three of those guys. Like, I I'm doing that a
63:07bunch. Um, and I'm trying to be done before Like, you know, I will take uh, a Jacoby Brissett or Geno, you know, late for an
63:17Inman I think I got him in like the 170s today, which is really nice. I like I like Mendoza now more
63:24post free agency even that I did and I was sort of bullish that this would happen in for but the Linderbaum thing I think is big.
63:32The solidifying the offense of obviously Kubiak is there. I'm not saying Jaylen Naylor is some game changer, but just bring in more bodies of
63:40competent NFL players to surround this guy plus Clint Kubiak is like okay, this feels this this feels pretty darn cozy.
63:48Yeah, I think he's a solid pick. He's not He's more like a quarterback three that you're like yeah, sure. Yeah, exactly.
63:55But a lot of times I'm taking like Stroud or Darnold um and kind of before the a little bit of a a little bit of a drop
64:03off I think. So, but uh but yeah, that the that's a big that's a big big feature of this pre-draft market that kind of like that
64:14quarterback pocket. I think that general pocket has been like a feature of best ball drafts for a long time. One of the
64:20few things that hasn't really changed.
64:22One of the very few things.
64:24And so I don't think that's going to change like in a huge way. I think it'll shift a little bit. I think that like
64:31upper middle class moves up.
64:34Um I think there's a little bit of a gap like right now, you know, like Mayes in the 70s and uh like Jackson Dart in the 80s.
64:46I think there will be a bigger gap there.
64:49You know, like >> It just depends if Dart comes out and like his buddy and gives a horrible quote on a podcast that gets even fewer
64:59views than this than this podcast that we're on does. Uh you saw the Cam Skaterbu uh Not only is CTE not real, asthma
65:08>> Oh, asthma's not real, yeah, yeah.
65:10>> not real. And he was just joking. It was just It was just sarcasm. And as as some Well, his mother said that. He He
65:17apologized.
65:18His mom came He apologized, of course, cuz they all do this the stock right apology.
65:25His mother came out and said that that's just Cam. He's just sarcastic.
65:29And I'm like, "Look, I'm sarcastic and I've slipped up and said things that I shouldn't have said plenty of times in
65:33my life."
65:34That wasn't even a good effort at comedy. That wasn't That wasn't funny at all. Like, who's that funny to? Like, what is the joke asthma isn't real? How
65:42is that How is that funny?
65:44>> Skatabu Has someone Has anyone done the Joker meme of the of the asthma isn't real joke?
65:51>> But I'm worried about Jackson Dart.
65:53They're best buds. And Jackson Dart At least Cam Skatabu is a little bowling ball. Jackson Dart plays like he's a bowling ball, but he's a but he's a
66:01quarterback. And so, I want I I wonder how the bucks >> I'm waiting for Matt Nagy to say he sees a lot of Trubisky in him in a
66:09a complimentary.
66:10That That should lower his ADP by at least a round. That's a Sorry. That just reminded me. Did you see with the bucks
66:16they resigned Cade Otton, right?
66:18>> Yeah. Did you see the GM quote about about Cade Otton? Hold on. I want I want to make sure I don't screw it up
66:24cuz it's very funny. It's It's It's supposed to be a compliment, okay? And on what made Licht want to bring Cade
66:31Otton back. If you can find a wide tight end like him who can receive and also block, maybe not at an elite level at
66:39anything, but really good level at everything. It makes that player very valuable at the position. He basically said this dude's not that good at
66:47everything, but he's okay.
66:49>> him a jag post signing. He literally just said we really needed this guy back. He's the most mid ass tight end
66:55you've ever seen in your life.
67:00Well, he is. I like the Rashad Shaheed one where they they signed him and then it was like, "Oh, so you guys like have a huge role planned
67:08for him?" And they were like, "We we just like can't believe what a huge contribution Rashid made to our team last year. Like
67:15we can get anything close to that that that would be it would be well worth the money."
67:21I was like, "Oh, no."
67:23I mean, he's great in the return game, but we were all hoping you'd, you know, play him on offense. That would be nice.
67:30Not Then they brought back Jake [ __ ] Bobo. Did you see that? They matched like a $4 million offer for Jake Bobo
67:37and Dawson Knox have to have incriminating photos on the GMs in the like Yeah, I know Dawson Knox that he You saw the ones he He's got photos of
67:47uh of Dalton Kincaid's knee.
67:52Dalton Kincaid's knee and Brandon Beane out out with the woman who isn't his wife or something at at dinner because I
68:00Dawson Knox should have been cut so easily before this year and then they just Jackson Hall's was going to be the
68:06the guy there.
68:08They just restructured it and it was very It was It was very very disappointing, but uh sorry Dawson. I'm sure he's a good guy or maybe. I don't
68:15know. But uh You're either a good guy or a horrible guy who is blackmailing your teammates.
68:20What happened? We don't know which.
68:22Maybe Brandon Beane deserves it. I don't know. He doesn't strike me as the world's greatest you're going to blackmail a GM
68:28and I'd be like, "Don't do that." And you're like, "Well, it's Brandon Beane."
68:30And you're like, "Well, yeah, the you still shouldn't do it, but Jeff of the of the woman where she's like, "Well,
68:39that that that that's the I would yeah, I would go through the computer sticks for sure.
68:44Um but anyway, so uh I I thought that the quarterback thing was was was pretty fascinating both because um I agree with you know, everything you
68:54said three quarterback all that, but it's like it's genuinely so it's more expensive.
69:00Like I said, okay, so the top 12 top six, whatever, but seven to 12 are round more expensive than usual.
69:08Uh 13 to 18, like QB 18 is 16 picks uh a more expensive. That the QB 18 goes about at the same price as the QB 12 did
69:17last year. Now, again, this is current prices right now, but even if we adjust that down a little bit, we're still talking about pretty hefty
69:25prices, right? QB 24, same thing. Goes goes But then it at the end, what I think is a little bit fascinating is at
69:31the end the QB 30 goes at the same price literal stone cold same price, 199.
69:37Which is not trying to draw too, you know, draw too many specifics from this, but it does make me wonder when we get
69:44to the summer, I think it's this would theoretically be the time where the cheap guys you're like, you know, in past years, there's guys that are going
69:51to, you know, there's rookies where we can speculate on. There, you know, there would be five Ty Simpsons, not one.
69:58There would, you know, there would be a bunch, you know, there would be a bunch of these, but right, there would be the
70:02Sam Howell, there would be the Darnold, J.J. McCarthy stuff, there would be the whatever, right? There Yeah, we talked about Drake Maye and
70:09yeah, Jacoby Brissett would be more interesting and whatever.
70:12>> Maye going his rookie year, now? Blank deck, cuz I was taking pre-draft in like the >> Super cheap. 10th round. He was, yeah,
70:17he was like 16th, 17th round by the by the end of the summer, right?
70:20>> Brissett was starting. Oh my god, I forgot. Yeah, Brissett was starting, right? So, you could get Maye Maye for free. But Russ
70:27>> I still kills me that Maye didn't didn't crush his rookie season, you know, even though he did crush the ball. Yeah, exactly.
70:35He's only essentially the MVP. I I blame Mayo. I blame Jared Mayo. Yes, for sure.
70:41But I wonder how much price like reduction we really, really get. Certainly some guys are going to fall, whatever, but like
70:52there's a supply issue.
70:54There's a supply issue, yeah. They they for sure do.
70:56>> issue.
70:57The The other thing is that I think so this is related to the the point on the wide receivers I was making earlier.
71:05Like if there are three to four wide receivers who are going to kind of come up into that range, you know, and then there's
71:13there's probably some running backs who who will come up on opportunity, but we don't know which ones and I'm less willing to speculate on those guys. I
71:20think that will Some of these rookies I think will push down the quarterbacks a little bit. Like the you know, you're talking about like six
71:29picks difference like for the quarterback 18. Like that that might account for that right there. Like the rookies might come up because
71:36um they're this running back class is not good, but I don't know like if Ke'Shawn Allen goes third round and has a path to playing
71:45time like we'll get there. We'll get there as like a 12th, 13th round pick. Totally. Um and there's a and it doesn't have to be him,
71:52right? It could be like who got there um Yeah. Uh whatever. I'm trying to think of some other but it it just hap- it
71:58just happens.
71:58>> It's going to happen and I I think and I totally like I'm not I'm not that into Ke'Shawn Allen right now because he
72:03could be a fifth or He probably didn't get fall out of the fifth.
72:06>> If you're drafting corners at wide receiver, you can draft a fullback at running back. I don't know if I want to
72:11draft a fullback without drafting a fullback, you know? Like I'm not that into Emmit Johnson. Um he's like the he's like I think he's
72:19probably Eno Benjamin to be honest, but >> Um he's Hey, if he goes third round and has a path to playing time like
72:28>> he's Kyren. How about that?
72:31I mean I hope your two Kyren, not your one Kyren. Yeah. Right. Right. Year one Kyren. Well, uh that would be very
72:37fitting um for me if he is your if he is year one Kyren and I uh uh but I I I I tend to like that kind of
72:44prospect. Um you know, the the guy who does it all, dominates the backfield, good receiver.
72:49Yeah.
72:50His breakaway stuff is atrocious uh in a way that Kairn was not.
72:54>> I also Kairn's not not super fast, but Do as I say not as I do or or don't listen to what I said earlier, but
73:01uh so for the can you know me calling out the Quim Youer stuff. Dylan Raiola awful.
73:08Absolutely [ __ ] atrocious. All this baby Mahomes hype is the most was the most unwarranted ridiculous [ __ ] I've ever seen in my
73:16entire life and he was awful. They should have benched him They should have found out a fake injury for him right where in the end of NBA
73:23season where guys have you know sore neck from sleeping wrong on their you know thousand dollar pillows or whatever.
73:30>> Fernando Alonso's like 30 laps in laps into a race and he's like oh the car's He's been lapped twice. You guys hear
73:36that?
73:37I think I'm just going to retire.
73:39Yeah.
73:40Can you guys check check all good? No.
73:43>> All good. All good Fernando. I I don't I don't think so.
73:46>> sure the car's not going to make it another lap. So I'm just coming in.
73:50Uh so yes, I'm being a I'm being a hypocrite, but uh the the Nebraska situation was quite was was was quite bad. I'm also not a
73:58big fan of Matt of Matt Rhule as a head coach of of any team including including college teams, but that's a
74:05that's a that's a a a pro an archetype that I tend to fall for a little bit and there's hits and
74:11there's there's Cam Newton and there's Eno Benjamin and there you know there's >> He's He fits in the general group. What
74:17I'm actually trying to say is like Keaontay Ingram, Emmit Johnson, Seth Williams These are guys that and then there's like that would be like a tier of guys that
74:26I'm not that interested in, but are like very high on my list of guys I could become interested in Yeah. post draft um
74:37and Allen I take a little love cuz he's he's he is he falls sometimes and you know he's not super expensive. And then
74:43there's like a fairly long list of guys where I'm like Yeah, yeah. I mean, if you got like if you were a surprising third-round pick,
74:51like I guess I could be kind of interested maybe. Uh like a Jamari Taylor, you know, or like a Damani Cleborne or Jamar Emmett Johnson, which
75:01is generally not a good uh description, but that's it. He was a Yeah. He was a slow, boring Yeah. workhorse back who
75:08can do you know who >> catch a little, yeah. Yeah, so there's like a bunch of guys like that's not even worth cuz like so many of these
75:13guys are literally going to be nothing.
75:14I'm not taking them at all.
75:16Um but they're kind of like watch list players. But some of them will probably be 14th round picks or 13th round picks
75:22even because they land in a in a with a path to playing time and we get excited about them. Like this happens every
75:28year, you know, like Dakorey Cross Kemirite. It took until the late summer, but like I wouldn't have expected to be to be drafting him I took bags and bags
75:38of and I I I remember after >> Cam Erving Guy, yeah. He was getting expensive, but >> him a little bit more like as a
75:45prospect, so there's a little bit of bias from me in that, but I still wasn't taking him and I definitely wasn't
75:50taking him in the early summer, but then the drumbeat starts, right? So you also have that too. They're like You know what I'm saying?
75:58Yeah. These these ebbs and flows of like we said, there's like four phases of pre-draft contest stuff. There's also multiple phases of the summer too. So
76:06like you're like, well, in the summer, you know, this Sure, you're going to get the guy that lands in a right a good
76:11spot, you know, goes higher in the draft than we think and lands in a good spot who shoots up the board. But you're also
76:16going to get the guys who go in the maybe don't land in what we perceive as a great spot and then the summer starts
76:21to play out like Bill, like Camerun Guy, like what and you're like, oh [ __ ] Uh yeah, this guy's a thing, but he
76:27wasn't a thing in May. You know, but he's a thing in July and August. And so there's all of that too. It's not just
76:34like, oh, once the draft is over like wash your hands, you know who >> Ali Gordon moved up, you know, Ali
76:39Gordon would have pushed down, you know, that that probably like the the Darnold tier of quarterbacks maybe or at least Mendoza. So, there's going to be guys
76:46like that, I think. Like, regardless of whether or not they themselves end up being good picks, it's it's that I think
76:53they will help spread out the quarterbacks a little.
76:57A little. So, so I think yeah, I think they the bunching is related to uncertainty within the rookie class to an extent
77:05where we just this rookie class is bad generally.
77:09Um I like I said, I like the wide receivers a little bit more Mhm. uh than than probably consensus, but mostly
77:14because of the draft capital I expect them to get. And they can't but they can't make up They can't make up for the entire lack
77:21of quarterbacks, running backs, even tight ends, right? They can't. They can't. The Sadik Shaquille Stewart, whatever, Trey, whatever. It's like some
77:28years we have seven rookie tight ends we're drafting.
77:32This year we have like 1.5.
77:34You know, Stewart I think is a good pick and and probably should be going a little higher, but Call it two, 2.5
77:39rookie tight ends that we're drafting, right? 1.5 rookie quarterbacks that we're drafting. Fewer rookie running backs than we draft in multiple seasons.
77:46So, even if the wide receiver class is good and we get some of these risers, there's still only so many guys that can
77:53that that can But the running backs will help there post draft once we have certainty. They will help a little. Not
77:59as much as we would like, but they'll help a little. And I think it helps at the back end of that pocket like we
78:04talked about, right? Like, I don't think those guys are impacting so much that you know, now if Omar goes in the first
78:10round or whatever, that's one guy that could do this, right? But that's one that's one spot of ADP, not that big of
78:14a of a difference. But I think it's that potential pocket of the Yeah, the Purdy whatever, Kyler type range or whatever.
78:21Then Zach Wilson could go there, too.
78:23Yeah. I think he could jump up there, too. That range is always in a little bit of flux cuz it's like stacking
78:28dependent, you know? You know, we do this song and dance every summer where it's like, well, you the CD team, are
78:32they going to take Dak now or they going to wait you know, we we do that [ __ ] So, that range is always a little bit in
78:38in flux, but I think I think generally speaking, because it is a supply issue, we're not going to get much discount. It's going to Quarterback
78:49is going to >> Yeah. play differently this year. And unless you love Ty Simpson or or or whatever, right?
78:56Unless you love someone like that, >> Is he going to go first round? I [ __ ] hope not, dude. I like to make fun of
79:01some of these prospects, but he he stinks. Like he did I I I just I just published my quarterback article this morning.
79:11And like >> What is it? How many quarterbacks did you talk about? I haven't read it yet.
79:14>> I I talked about like the whole class.
79:16Um cuz I did I did I did >> you.
79:20Oh, I I I actually screwed up the title. I It's It's supposed to be tiers 1 through 6, and it says tiers 16.
79:28So, I got to change that right now.
79:30>> I That's That's That's really >> I know, it's kind of apt, yeah. It's like a pretty funny type of have class.
79:37If If it said tiers 1 through 1 through 6, >> 1 through 16 is what I was hoping it would say, but yeah.
79:42>> 1 and 16, that would be great, because you'd be Mendoza and then the tier 16 guys, cuz they all [ __ ] suck.
79:50All right, I just fixed that. The um that's so funny.
79:54Uh Let me change the freaking I guess now that's going to stay. Um Anyway, I wrote up Yeah, I wrote up like
80:03a bunch of guys. Um Like I wrote up Drew Allar. Uh So, Once upon a time, uh mocked as the QB1 overall in uh He was going to go
80:14first round. It was you know, we were told.
80:17Really bad. Not good.
80:19The uh Ty Simpson, my I'll give you guys the at a glance.
80:25Simpson has the statistical profile of a day three quarterback, but the NFL seems into him, which matters.
80:33Yep. It's cuz he he he look he looks the part. You take him out to a 7-on-7 game and you're like, you know, he's the he's
80:38the he I get off the bus is not the right term cuz he's like 6'1, 190 or something, but like you go out there and
80:44you play a game of 7-on-7, you're like, "Holy [ __ ] this guy can sling it around, he can run, he can move." You
80:50know, but he's just not good at he's he's Bama's Zach Wilson.
80:56Yeah, so the comps I have for him were Teddy Bridgewater, Brandon Allen, Geno Smith, Cody Kessler, Brock Purdy, and JJ McCarthy.
81:06Um I like Cody Cody Kessler, a little more athletic version of Cody Kessler, but that's a pretty I like He's he's
81:12like he's somewhat mobile, but he's like he's he's like a game manager type I don't What I don't get about Simpson is like
81:20you're you're trying to It's like the same bet you're making with Garrett Nussmeier, I think.
81:26But you have to pay for Simpson. Mhm.
81:29Nussmeier was thought to be a Heisman favorite coming into this season, and then LSU went to [ __ ] obviously.
81:36Right. Like I think I'd if you were like, "Hey, we're going to draft Ty Simpson." I'd be like, "Can I convince
81:40you to spend a fourth on Carson Beck instead?"
81:44Yeah, cuz cuz first really matter and we shouldn't use one on Ty Simpson. Yeah.
81:48>> Um But yeah, I mean it's I think the my my number three quarterback in this class is North Dakota State's Cole Payton.
81:58Cuz he could actually be really fun if he got a shot.
82:02But I don't expect him to get a shot.
82:04We've never failed with North Dakota State quarterbacks before.
82:07>> It's never been us once.
82:09Uh especially not dual threats who like drop back 23 times a game.
82:14That's never gone wrong. And and there's a Lance on the team.
82:18And there's a Lance brother >> Yeah, there is a Lance brother. God.
82:21>> So uh Even better. Yeah, very >> Uh but yeah, I mean the this quarterback class is just it's it's Mendoza's fine,
82:28you know.
82:29He's he's going to start right away.
82:31They might pretend he won't start, you know, like, well, we got to got to work him in slowly. Got to Mhm. Yeah.
82:37This is we got a program in place.
82:39You know, it would it would sometimes get that [ __ ] but he's he's functionally a day one starter even if
82:44they make him wait 2 weeks or something dumb.
82:46Um and he's he's uh you know, I don't think he's a great prospect, but he's like he's fine. He's fine.
82:55I would I would like that he's being dropped into what should be if the Raiders stink doesn't wear off on what
83:01they got going on here. It should be a good situation. It's like a pretty good situation for him. Like I think he's uh
83:07he kind of profiles as maybe like a Sam Darnold-y type of guy. Like a bigger Sam Darnold is is sort of what he can
83:13end up being. Um Herbert was one of his comps, but so was Blake Bortles, so was Carson Wentz. Yeah. Uh I mean, if he
83:21turns into a pumpkin, I don't think it would be the the reason.
83:24>> be surprising to me. He wasn't particularly good at Cal. He showed flashes of being good Yeah. at at Cal, but he wasn't
83:30>> really good last year. But he was outstanding last year. And so again, that's why I'm like if the the that's
83:35why this whole I went on a long >> one guy. Yeah. You know. Yeah, we have one. But that's also why one guy.
83:42comfortable about him with what the Raiders got going on is because I think he's very right? If you get the Darnold
83:48Zach Wilson thing, you're like, we can't drop this dude into the Jets, man. Like you can't drop Mendoza into the Jets as
83:53an example and expect him to succeed.
83:56Now, the Raiders, like historically, what has been really [ __ ] Spider-Man meme, but what they have going with Kubiak, with the major offensive line
84:04upgrades, a foundational piece in Brock Bowers, a foundational piece in Ashton Jeanty, more draft capital to invest in possibly that range of wide receiver
84:12that we're talking about is frothy. Like the there's plenty. I mean, they could draft this they could draft Who knows?
84:18They they could literally take Amari Cooper who he played with in in college if he falls to to them. So, like
84:24there's a lot of of goodness around him that makes me less worried about some of the concerns I have for Mendoza. But, as you said, he's
84:32one guy and he isn't the the the Drake May, the Sam Howell price, the Sam Darnold price, or whatever you're paying
84:38for I think a totally normal, reasonable price for him. So, he doesn't jump up >> more expensive than Ward was last year,
84:44too, I think.
84:44>> Right. Right.
84:46So, >> And and then I I I find them similar to the Raiders with the Raiders situation being a little better than Tennessee.
84:52>> Raiders situation's better, but but the he actually comes out slightly worse for me. Like like a hair worse than Ward did
84:57last year. Um they're the same tier.
85:01Uh and I like the situation better. And I think it where he's going is fine-ish. I'm not I took him, I think,
85:07twice in I don't think he is a reason you win or lose, no matter what.
85:13But, he it but but also that has you he has utility as a draft >> Yeah, he's utility. He's utility, yeah.
85:20But, I think he kind of is going to bring up the rear to an extent, you know, at at quarterback. So, not fully,
85:27you know, you'll have your your Brissett's and Geno's and stuff, but um but like that group of of like guys that
85:33I'm not worried about getting benched.
85:35Correct.
85:36>> Uh he's he's going to probably bring up that rear, but the rear's just I think it's just going to be a little higher
85:41cuz you don't have you just don't have his I mean, like there's just what's you know, what's going on with the Dolphins, right? Like this that's
85:51bad. What the the Cardinals guy could be a disaster. Like the the Jets are always a disaster. Um they brought back a
86:00Like they had they took Geno Smith.
86:03They benched him within like a like the second or third year he's done. Mhm. He got like punched by a teammate and then
86:10lost his job.
86:12It was like a disaster.
86:14And now Now back. Now he's their day one starter. Like, what? Teams almost never do this where they're like, "Hey, remember this guy who like we have a
86:21shitload of baggage with?
86:23He's our starter now at quarterback, the most important position." I saw a meme of when Geno Smith signed with the Jets
86:32that they they did a a meme of when LeBron came back to Cleveland.
86:39And I thought that was just That's really good. Like, do you think he walked through the door, you know, like LeBron coming? Like, "Cleveland,
86:47this is for you." You know, like he did it. He did You think he's going to do the You know, the throw the
86:53chalk up in the sky on the side?
86:55>> think if Geno Smith wins the Jets a Super Bowl that it would be genuinely more meaningful than LeBron bringing Cleveland a championship? Cuz I kind of
87:04do. Yes. That is a job broken by a by a teammate punching him after getting benched immediately and like almost was like out
87:12of the NFL because it was it went so bad.
87:15Just the sheer improbability of that happening has to mean something.
87:19>> His career was almost shorter than Johnny Manziel's, dude, and he's back starting in this in this organization.
87:25It was like it was unbelievable when he like when he was filling in for Russ.
87:30He's like, "Oh, Geno Smith, okay. We're He's And then when they're like, "No, no, no, like we like Geno. Like he's going to be our
87:36starter."
87:37It's like, "Oh, okay."
87:39That seems That's not what I was expecting to say. He's pretty good. That already felt like his redemption and probably was, but
87:48imagine if he makes a run with the Jets. I mean, that would >> This poor guy. Surely legendary. What a career, though.
87:54The whole Jets debacle, I mean, legendary debacle. Obviously then bounced around. Gets a gets a backup job, succeeds uh certainly exceeds expectations,
88:06whether it was success or not for the Seahawks is debatable, but certainly exceeds expectations.
88:11>> No, I think you have to give him credit for succeeding with the relative I mean it wasn't just relative. They were solid
88:17team. They're solid team with him. Yeah.
88:19>> Mhm.
88:20And then of course gets run out of town cuz it just had sort of worn out. We'd reached the ceiling of what the Seahawks
88:27could be and then you know Pete Carroll gone and everything.
88:30Hey, credit to the Seahawks which I did not I did not think this was what was happening but they realized they could
88:35trade Geno and then upgrade a quarterback.
88:38And and they won a Super Bowl so Yep.
88:41Good roster management to you. But then he goes to the Raiders and you're like, "Whoa, if he if he plays like he did in
88:48in Seattle, Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Gentty is fine, some young guys on the you're like, "Hmm, this is interesting." And then that goes
88:56full Jets. That had to be he had to be having [ __ ] nightmares, dude. Like that was and I'm not saying he wasn't
89:02partially to blame but holy [ __ ] did everything burn everything just burn down around him and then he went he went
89:10he locked the door and just started playing.
89:11>> "I I know just the thing to turn this around.
89:15I'll go to the Jets."
89:17So like what a career. I'm glad he got those couple Seattle years cuz my god what a disaster. I want to share one I
89:25want to share one thing with you about some running back prices if you don't mind before we Yeah, yeah, just one last
89:29thing on quarterback that I think is worth mentioning as a particular you know a particular thing this year is that we do have
89:36uh you know, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time coming off an ACL tear.
89:43And he's a pretty good pick I think at pick 91. Mhm. Uh you can have Jackson Dart, I'll take Patrick Mahomes.
89:52Um especially like everything we have always talked about with these best ball tournaments like the back way to production, the idea of Mahomes
90:00you know, at the end of the season looking like peak Mahomes again and you're getting like you're having a chance to have those
90:09teams, you know, hitting their stride in the fantasy playoffs. These stackable Kelce's cheap. You can take Xavier Worthy. Rice is a target, I think. It
90:17is, you know, yep, not a fun target, but he is he's underpriced relative to how many points he's likely to score this season.
90:24Um And so you get Mahomes and then look, you're probably going to have to fill in some some additional kind of
90:31quarterback. You got you took a little bit of a hit to your advance rate when you take Mahomes even though he is, you
90:36know, somewhat cheap. You know, he's he's the cheapest we've seen him.
90:40Um but that means you probably are looking more at three quarterback builds. So I I end up taking a lot of Mahomes
90:49and that makes I think three quarterback builds a little bit more appealing. So it's like a quarterback who would normally be
90:55like a clear two quarterback build at least in the way we used to think about things couple years ago. Like he's now a
91:01clear three quarterback build. And I think you would also probably say the same of Kyler Murray who like I I like
91:07drafting Murray, but you know, it's a little shaky. You know, things could things could fall off. He could be benched and come back or something like
91:14that. Like that seems very plausible. He could, you know, he could get banged up or whatever. Um and so there's there's like more utility even
91:25to the Geno's and to the Jacoby's because of Mahomes and and all but also like Darnold and Stroud, those that that
91:35tier I think has a little bit more I have more interest in those guys too because I don't I don't want to like have my Mahomes bet
91:45only pay off if he like starts playing well in week one. Like I would like him to like not have to play well for like
91:51six weeks and I'm fine. It doesn't matter because I Right. I spent a pick that's not worth that much on another
91:56quarterback. Yeah.
91:57>> Yep. You can make you can make it easier on yourself without really giving up too much.
92:01>> Yeah. What plays into that plays into your quarterback stuff, plays into all this pricing is what has happened to the
92:07running back landscape. I don't want to like belabor this forever cuz I got to go in a few, but it this is a and this is something I
92:13don't expect to change too much because the majority of this is expensive running backs where we more or less know, right? Like
92:22sure, a rookie could come in and bury Cam Akers Akers or whatever. Like yes, totally agree, right?
92:28But but but it but it's Jeremiah Love and he already goes like goes in the second round. So Right.
92:33>> Again, similar to what we were talking about with the quarterback stuff. So the top 12 quarter top 12 running backs,
92:38what has essentially happened in the first couple rounds, round one is pretty similar. The order is a little bit different, but it's it's pretty similar.
92:45Six running backs, six wide receivers.
92:47Change the order however you would like it, close enough to the last year and the last couple of years. Though it was
92:52like three years ago where it was like nine wide receivers in the first round cuz we, you know, we we did the thing we
92:56did. It it it Nobody needs to worry about it.
92:59>> We did. We had the wide receiver apocalypse. It was a lot of fun. It triggered a lot of people.
93:05We maybe took it a little too far, but anyway.
93:08Round one round one is mostly the same.
93:11Round two has like completely flipped.
93:14It's like all running backs. It's the two tight ends.
93:17It's the two tight ends, like nine running backs or eight running backs or something like that and a couple of wide
93:21receivers in round two, give or take.
93:24So what that what that did is it pulled up, right? All your sort of RB1s are seven to eight picks more expensive on
93:31like the collective group, right? And you move down a little bit more the RB16 last year, the RB16 went at pick 46.
93:41Right? So almost the four or five turn.
93:43The RB16 goes at pick 31.5 right now on on Underdog. So another big shift down to RB24, which is ironically Brevin Jordan who we talked
93:53about. He goes at pick 60.
93:55That was pick 70. Which is not a smash now, right? And it but it he was I you know, I kind of found it funny that
94:03there was like the big backlash to him going in the what the seventh or eighth who used to go around where Warren I
94:09guess I little ahead of where Warren goes now, but yeah, he was he was right next to Warren before Dowdle signed and
94:15and ETN signed in New Orleans.
94:17Um, but yeah, I mean he's he's jumped up now to where like you are you're paying for him maybe not as like a every down starter
94:25there's plenty of upside if you were to have that, but um but yeah, I mean he's there's some risk to to where he goes now for sure.
94:33Then to get down through, right? RB 25 to 36 again still more expensive, right?
94:39The RB 36 was at pick 119 last year, it's at pick 108 this year. So sort of everything in the expensive-ish
94:47or and or the premium zero RB candidates, right? Sort of your your elite running backs down into your dead zone down into your like premium zero RB
94:57guys are all more expensive than they were last year. But then what plays into like what you talked about with quarterbacks, what we've sort
95:05of talked about with this market now you get down to the cheapies, right? RB 48 and beyond.
95:12They're cheaper.
95:13Because there's this feeding like people are panicking about quarterbacks, more people are drafting early running backs, so they need wide receivers now. Right?
95:23And once you once you get into the 150s, I need my I need my wide receivers. So these and your quarterbacks, yeah.
95:29Right? Yes, you got to have corners, full backs, corner, full back and really bad NFL quarterbacks.
95:39Like Gino, Travis Homer, and Ke'Shawn got to be on these teams.
95:43But they get it gets right the running backs back there get cheaper. So So like you talked about with like maybe a zero running back team
95:52you're "Okay, I'm accepting a little bit more weakness."
95:55It's possible that you're getting a better running back at pick 150 than you would have gotten in the last couple of
96:02seasons.
96:03And so, if you're embracing all right, I'm going to make all my three other positions really good, these pot running backs are not as bad
96:11like the profile is not as bad as it used to be at this price, even though we're losing the rookie like the the
96:19kind of good rookie running backs. I think that might even solidify the late running backs a little bit more. Not necessarily in terms of like you may
96:26Okay, so maybe Kyren and Bucky aren't back there, but like locked in like year two, year three potential breakout type guys, the
96:33backups are probably a little bit more clear post NFL draft back there. It's just a it's a oddly stronger crop despite a lack of
96:43influx of rookie running backs back there just strictly through like what the market has done because they've said, "Oh god, I got to get running
96:50backs now." Right? For a variety of reasons. Running backs have smashed early for the last couple of seasons.
96:55The rookie class sucks. Blah blah blah.
96:57But so everything got priced up there and quarterback got priced up, but the cheap wide receivers are not cheaper.
97:04Because that's what that everybody needs those cheap wide receivers now.
97:07>> Yeah. You know what I mean? So, you might actually get, you know, uh I always think like Jonathan Brooks and Keaton Mitchell are back there,
97:15right? And these there's going to be some rookies back there that are going to be appealing, but they just get priced down because this is what the
97:21market is. We take our running backs early. We got to get our quarterbacks.
97:24And now we need receivers back here. So, there's actually maybe a little bit of, you know, a fruit that could bear back there back
97:32at the running back position even though like at a at a glance with the rookie class it doesn't feel that way.
97:38Yeah, I mean, it's a little I that that the late running backs I don't think are there's not a ton of guys I like and the guys I
97:46do draft are probably going to gross you out. Like I I take Aaron Jones.
97:51I think that's fine. Yeah, I mean he's he's so cheap. He's at 141. Like I you know, he's he's he's someone I'm used to
98:00being like, "What are we doing? Ninth round Aaron Jones, come on. This guy's washed."
98:04Um but you know, you get him in the 140s, so there's stuff like that that I that I'm comfortable with and
98:10um I want to be more in on Jonathan Brooks than I actually am. I've like for our stuff I I like have reviewed
98:19him. I'm like asking anyone I know, like, "Hey, like do you think I should have move up Jonathan Brooks?" You know,
98:25cuz I just like want to and then like everything like that I dig into I'm like, "I really can't justify this because
98:33he's I I probably he's he's the profile of guy who like so often you're like, "Oh yeah, like Jonathan Brooks.
98:42I was drafting him."
98:45No, like I forgot. Yeah, this team could use could use a running back unfortunately and has Jonathan Brooks on it. Um
98:53you know, like there's there's like so many of those guys uh that you like you know, we wipe our minds of
99:02and I'm I'm a little bit worried he he could be someone like that um you know, where we're getting we're getting that second go round with him
99:11and so we're thinking it might actually happen, but like Brooks might be like uh you know, an Isaiah Spiller in our in our minds
99:19eventually. The the thought the thing for him is >> A Ke'Shawn Vaughn. we haven't seen anything.
99:25Right. A lot of these other guys flamed out, so the the feature and they let Rico Dowdle go and did not as of yet.
99:32Um other than Trevor Etienne who was terrible. Um they have not added anything to the >> A Bryce Love. to the running to the
99:39running back room.
99:40Uh Bryce Love, there's a name I haven't heard. But, I'm definitely not trying to make it about any of these, right? Like,
99:46specifically these guys.
99:47>> I know. I I I I want to Yeah, Brooks I'm waiting on like >> the rookie wide receiver thing, right?
99:53It's like I can I could nitpick I could nitpick Omar who I like. We could nitpick Concepcion. We could we could
99:58But, like, collectively, there's a generally good price you're getting on these this uh profile of a of a back that we used
100:08to pay more for. We did. We just It's just flat out true. We the the backups and the like But, we have more
100:14certainty. Like, with with Brooks, right? Like, we don't know I'm making a bet on those wide receivers like Cooper or whatever. Like, I'm making a bet that
100:23um and Cooper it's somewhat priced in.
100:25It's more It's actually more of the guys who are free where I like it better.
100:27But, like, when I when I take Jarmar Bernard or Chris Bradwell or whatever, I'm making a bet based on the consensus big board right
100:36now that has those guys as second-round picks.
100:39And I'm betting on other guys that has a second-round picks or early third-round picks. And I'm saying, "Hey, I bet if
100:44these guys are second-round picks based on everything we know about where second-round picks go in the current best ball market, that they're not going
100:53to be available in the 18th, 19th, and 20th round. Um and there's like pretty strong I have like a pretty strong piece of evidence in my
101:03favor that that will happen for, you know, a few of these guys.
101:06Because the board is not usually like completely wrong when you get when you're talking about like, you know, top 64 player. For
101:14sure.
101:14>> So, with Brooks, who I again I would really like to be more in on, I don't know that we have that
101:22information like headed the way we want. I don't know I don't know. Like, I don't know anything about where Brooks is right now and what
101:29his role actually is. I I acknowledge that like if we get information if we get hype about him like looking awesome that he will move up and he will
101:39be he will have been a smash to take here but like it it seems just as likely to me if not more likely that we just
101:46don't really hear that much and it's just sort of like this deafening silence and like we kind of know what that means you know
101:55it's like well you know it's just probably not happening I guess it's just like they really are just going to go
102:00back to Chuba well they they use Chuba ahead of Breida in the playoffs they're definitely going going back going back to Chuba for sure but the
102:12I don't mean this about just right now as as an example I'm I'm extremely fearful of like every late round frankly
102:19every late round everything but every late round running back right now because of that there's still so many dominoes to fall and there's so
102:26much uncertainty but when we what what my prediction is is when we get to the summer that the quarterback stuff okay a couple
102:36guys fall but it's specifically probably because of a couple of rookies like you said that get some good right we we get
102:41some good rookie stuff they move up a couple of the quarterbacks fall or whatever but I don't think that the market is going to change its opinion on
102:49early round running backs I don't think it's really ultimately going to change its position on quarterbacks because it like I said it's a supply issue it's
102:57like they can only get so cheap if if a lot of people if everybody wants two minimum and a lot of people want three
103:03and there's only 28 that we can draft you just run out of numbers at a at a certain point right I think I think the
103:11market changes a little bit on early round running back who what rises and what like how how does that happen well I think part of the reason it
103:21happens is that I think right now like hyper fragile is a pretty strong build because it takes advantage of >> I made of the big board was how I that
103:31that's like one of my preferences of how I build >> It's a great build right now. It takes advantage of of a number of things like
103:37though that cheap wide receiver firepower that you get you get the wide receiver upside. End of season wide receiver upside is available for free in
103:44the final rounds of drafts.
103:46It is. You know, you can't tell me it isn't because cuz we have that draft capital to back us up. We know that's a
103:51very strong signal. These guys are going to get looks at the end of the year uh if they get that draft capital and
103:57some of them will. So you you have that right there. So you know, that that takes part of your wide receiver room,
104:03you know, take is taken care of for free uh if you if you target some of those guys.
104:09Um and that I don't think will be the case post draft as I've been saying. Like I don't think that that cluster will exist. I
104:17think you'll have to pay for that now.
104:18So So now that means well, I need post draft to get more wide receiver firepower. I'm going to have to pay for
104:25wide receiver firepower. And in fact, the guys that I was taking in the big board for free are kind of overpriced
104:30now and so I probably want to be targeting wide receivers a little bit earlier in the draft.
104:35You know, depending on the prices, maybe I'm not hammering them, but I think I'm I'm I'm probably breaking that tie in the fifth
104:43round to Carnell Tate if he's still going there. Mhm. Where like I was drafting a bunch yesterday and I was I was breaking
104:50the tie to Carnell Tate over you know, like a Trevion Henderson or or Scat [ __ ] or whatever running back there.
104:57And I I have to say, I mean, some of those teams I I was like this this team is hurting at running back. Like I didn't
105:05really figure it out. Mhm. And I kind of wish I'd just taken the running back there and then uh I wasn't getting Carnell Tate later,
105:15obviously, but I I could get, you know, maybe a Cooper or a Casey Conceicao and like get a more premium wide receiver
105:22rookie bet. Uh or even, you know, I I like Jayden Reed, you know, I like Josh Downs. Like those those types of guys
105:30there to help fill out my wide receiver room. Maybe I get a couple of those guys instead of one Tate, but I take a couple
105:36of the running backs I drafted who like weren't very good picks.
105:40You know, and and I replace that with with like a second year breakout guy like Henderson or whatever.
105:47Or Skatabu and they don't draft love and he ends up shaping up as a pretty big value as a result. So,
105:52or Quintez Johnson is right there.
105:54There's there's you know, these are like young backs. Young backs that we think are talented are going in the fifth round. And if you don't take a running
106:03back there as your second or third guy, then you end up feeling a lot of times like, man, I never really figured it out cuz I
106:11don't know I don't have enough confidence in which running backs are like the good bets. But I think we get a
106:16little bit more confidence in terms of which running backs to pick post-draft, you know, I think we you know, and and then we
106:24we're going to get we're going to start to have more clarity on some of these backfields and which which kind of handcuffs and that
106:30type of thing is like really the the prime ones to target.
106:34And then and then frankly, you're just wide receiver is going to have more scarcity in terms of end-of-season upside. And so that will then become a
106:42bigger priority to take care of early and then and then I'm I'm taking Tate in the fifth round. Like if Tate's available
106:49fifth round post-draft, I think he's a smash. I'd take him now cuz I still think he is kind of a smash. But then
106:55when I look at the team after, some sometimes, not always, but sometimes I'm like, yeah, it's probably team to take Judkins
107:02actually.
107:03And I think the I think the market will I'll be I'll be fascinated to discuss it again when we get to the summer
107:13because I I don't I don't think the market is going to give up this chokehold on the early running back stuff.
107:20A little maybe a little shift here or there.
107:22>> a little. But I think generally speaking the shift to more early running backs and this whole like uh right so how how it sort of how the
107:32average drafter is going in is they're getting their early running backs.
107:35Right? I I I I hear the most wide receiver bro I mean to to people like you and I or did you we just [ __ ]
107:40touted the hyper fragile robust running back type draft strategy, right? Cuz I do think it's good. But I think like DeAndre Swift will fall like that to
107:48that level of running back. Yeah.
107:50>> that's fair. But but then I but so you're but if the quarterback stuff is still close enough, right? So let's just
107:56say the running back prices are close enough because people still have this running back thirst. If crushed for 2 years, dude, you can't draft all these
108:02early wide receivers. You definitely can't draft the second round tight ends.
108:05You can't draft whatever.
108:07So we get we get our early running backs. We double back for a little bit of wide receiver, right? We got to get a
108:11a Terry McLaurin or or whatever on on this team. Then it's like Well, let's take Mike Evans on this one. All right,
108:17deal. Mike Evans.
108:19Uh star Christian Kirk, ready? Okay, so star Brock Purdy and star Christian Kirk now on this team. Uh that's this is This
108:27is a This is a definitely a boomer team.
108:28Saquon's on here, Derrick Henry's on here, Mike Evans. We got to then we got to get Brock Purdy in our our little QB
108:34window, right? Because of A we need him stacked, but B because I I don't want C.J. Stroud. I don't want, you know, I don't want Geno Smith. I
108:41don't want Jacoby Brissett. So the quarterback stuff is still going to remain the same.
108:45But now I do even though everything that you said is completely spot on and I agree with your approach and your
108:52assessment that they don't care. They're like, well, I need late wide receiver. I I haven't thought about the fact that those rookies aren't there anymore. I
109:00don't Why do I care? I might not even take the rookies. Give me Darius Slayton again, right? Like that that's a They
109:05Those people just Right, give me Darnell Mooney. Give me give me that archetype of a player.
109:10And they'll draft those guys and we'll get Right, so maybe not it's not Jonathan Brooks, but you said Jones, Chris Rodriguez,
109:18Zach Charbonnet, Emanuel Wilson, Keaton Mitchell Jones >> Charbonnet's not going to play most of the year. I think he's a little
109:25Which is definitely Okay, so Emanuel Wilson George Holani Seahawks rookie right there.
109:31>> I took the other day when on one of these teams where I felt like I got boxed out? Braelon Allen. Yeah. They
109:36haven't added anything that Breece hates his [ __ ] life with with the Jets.
109:41Like he's going to have the old hammy by week six, right? Ready to get the hell out of dodge. Isaiah Pacheco. David
109:46Montgomery's gone. Isaiah Pacheco goes at pick 169.
109:50Right? It's like What happened?
109:51>> me. What happened?
109:53But I'm just but I'm just saying, right?
109:54These are the I'm not sure he's even dressable. Dylan Sampson >> washed. Tank Bigsby backs up Saquon Barkley in in Philadelphia.
110:03>> What about Will Shipley, your boy?
110:05Well, it's over. Just give it up. If I'm giving it up, Tank it Tank is a better runner than than Will Shipley. Also, Will Shipley
110:12>> mean, I don't know. Tank's Will Shipley is one of the greatest Sklansky moments of my life. The I have bad news. I took him at Johnson. The
110:23three Oh, no, hold on. The three minutes on the very in the very first football game of the season when Will Shipley
110:30checks in like five plays into the season at four Saquon Barkley and you feel like we did it. He is the backup. That is
110:39true. He catches a swing pass and takes it down to like the three-yard line. He gets like three touches on the opening
110:45drive of the NFL season. Look, I was like This is This is I just I needed it. This is my moment. We did it. The next
110:53kickoff, because of course the backup running backs are on the kickoff, he gets [ __ ] rocked. Absolutely rocked.
111:01Concussion, whatever, broke something, whatever. He's out for a while. So much so that they trade for Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley comes back never to be
111:09heard from again.
111:11I got about seconds of joy out of thousands of dollars of investment into into Will Shipley.
111:21Uh Emma Johnson's top comp for me was Will Shipley.
111:25Uh I don't know if that's good or bad.
111:28>> Woody Marks, Wayne Gallman.
111:30Paul Perkins, Tyler Ervin, and Eno Benjamin. Where's Paul Perkins from? UCLA?
111:37I think he was UCLA, yeah.
111:39Um Yeah.
111:42>> UCLA. UCLA.
111:43>> Led the pack 12 in rushing as a sophomore.
111:47There you go. Seems bullish.
111:49>> was a uh pick 149 uh in the So he fits in this if if the NFL draft were our best ball draft ADPs,
111:57he fits in this late running back window that we're we're talking >> Yeah, Paul Perkins would be >> Aaron Jones. He's basically He's
112:04basically Aaron Jones.
112:06All right, I do I do have to run. Uh this was This was a ton of fun. It's always a pleasure to get back to to
112:13talking with you. We'll get back to these more on a little bit uh regular basis here, but uh I do got to
112:20give you the chance to talk. I know you just came out with your quarterback article and running back article and everything. Um what do you want to shout
112:25out?
112:26Yeah, so I just uh I just published my quarterback article. Uh it is tier 16 of the quarterbacks. So we I went deep.
112:35AKA the Ty Simpson tier. The Ty Simpson Yeah, Ty Simpson covered in detail in tier 16. Uh now, tiers 1 through 6 wrote
112:44up uh you know, I I wrote up pretty much every quarterback who you might be mildly interested in.
112:50Um but uh you know, brief write-ups on on the non-top guys. Uh I did write up the Diego Pavia just cuz it's like, come on,
112:58man. You can't can't be that productive in the ACC and and he's tier 6 in his own tier cuz he's not going to get drafted. That's why
113:05there's a tier 6. Uh but I also wrote up all the running backs, uh got statistical comps, and I went deep
113:11there, too, even though again, I said it's not a deep class, but I did little mini write-ups on like the Jamar Taylor
113:16type guys, Terrion Stewart, Le'Veon Moss, Kylin Black, Robert Henry, all that kind of kind of stuff for for dynasty purposes. Just kind of watch
113:24list, you know, like something to refer back to when one of these guys gets drafted fourth round and we're like, do we care?
113:30Um and then working on the wide receivers, uh which will be out next week, tight ends as well. Uh Matt Herbie has an
113:37article dropping on Monday, uh dynasty focus looking at uh some wide receiver buys. He's going to be doing a series of articles uh in the next couple
113:46weeks for the site as well. And then uh check out Underdog rankings, DraftKings rankings, and uh dynamic rankings have you covered with our our sidekick
113:56um tier, which uh yeah, we've got that's covering big board and all DraftKings stuff as well, and got you covered there
114:03for uh all the content that's through the end of the summer and then again for for playoff best ball if you if you do that,
114:08the the yearly sub covers that as well.
114:11Beautiful. And of course, you get 40% off of Spike Week Premium with code LEGUP if you are a Legendary Upside subscriber. We just launched I got some
114:20good stuff coming out. Uh we're calling it the Draft Optimizer. So, we have the Draft Hacker, which of course shows, you
114:25know, all your exposure stuff, right?
114:27And the playoff schedules and all that different kind of stuff. Um we launched the Draft Optimizer, which um in if you've played DFS before, right? Like
114:36you know what an optimizer an optimizer is. It's it's a little bit like that where um we're not, you know, like the
114:42the psychic is is really helping push you like in in the right direction for the everything that Legendary Up like all the incredible work that you
114:50guys have done, right? The Draft Optimizer is sort of like take what's in your brain, go onto our website, and put it and put like you
115:00heard you you you agreed with 90% of what Pat said, but there's this 10% you're like, don't add it you Pat, you know, Basile Tooten
115:07sucks. You know what I mean? Like Basile Tooten's terrible, Isaiah Pacheco rocks.
115:11I want to I want to take that guy. You come over and you put it in and it's just like a DFS optimizer. It's going to
115:15spit out while you're drafting like, remember I always call it the like the remember this tool. It's like, remember you said you wanted to draft X amount of
115:24this guy or you can create groups. You can create stacking rules. You can create right it's like when I draft so
115:30like you said, I'm drafting a zero running back team.
115:33I might need some kind of chaperoni guy or I'm drafting a robust running back team. Remember you said when you draft a you know, hyper
115:40fragile team, you need to get multiple of these rookies, right? Like you can create that group and it will remind you
115:46of like you said this, you know, and but then you also have your exposures on there, right? So like you could have the
115:51sidekick being like, hey, take this dude and then you're like, well, I got my exposure I took and I said >> Yeah, I want to counter right now
115:57actually. Right. So like all this like we're trying to build this like tool suite that I think it works perfect with
116:02what you guys have done and then we all do rankings and everything. That it like all works together to like not only is
116:08it helping make drafting easier for you, it it like it gets in your it's so hard actually to to draft teams with the exact plan of
116:18attack that you said you you get to you get to week one of the season and you're like, [ __ ] man, I only got like 7% of
116:24that dude or like, you know, I go look at my Tooten teams and I'm like, I don't have a single cowboy stack on my Tooten
116:29teams. You know what I mean? And you're like, what? You're like, what? Why did that why did that happen? Sometimes the
116:34draft works out that way, right? Like cuz you're trying to optimize every draft and I'm trying to just draft my you know, my favorite team or whatever
116:41in that draft. Having this sort of remember that tool, I think all this plays together and of course as I said, you can get 40% off just use code
116:48leg up. Go check out the stuff Pat's going got going on. We'll see you guys again very soon and enjoy I guess
116:55baseball if you're a baseball fan. It's been don't got football for a while and there really ain't [ __ ] going on in in
117:01the NFL.
117:02Uh, so we'll catch you next time. Peace.
