Legendary Upside
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1 hr 50 min
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Jul 29, 2026
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Wed, July 29, 2026
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0:16>> Monday Night Football, baby. We're here.
0:20>> [music] >> And we are live on the RunPee Sports
0:45YouTube channel here.
0:47Little inputs and instincts of best ball breakdown, the first edition of this show here. And I have the man, Zack religious from legendary upside
0:58here.
0:59He's going to be the man behind the inputs. I am going to try and give my instincts, and we're going to see who
1:05wins this battle here, Zack. It's going to be a battle.
1:09One of us will be winning and one of us will be losing at the end of the day.
1:14I hope it's me, but I think my odds are like I think I'm putting myself at like a 30% here.
1:22Okay, okay. I'm I'm definitely interested. It should be pretty fun. I I don't know all of your, you know, IKBs where you deviate from the kick. I don't
1:32I'm not, you know, don't know all of the ones where you differ. I've got an idea on a couple where, you know, I've seen
1:38you do some streams and and I know a few of the guys that you like that we don't or that you dislike that we do. So,
1:44it'll be interesting to see how we navigate this draft. And you know, I think at the end of the day, we can both
1:50be winners if we just draft a shippier right now here. That's true. If we draft a $3 million winner, then one, I'm going
1:58to be sending you a nice care package.
1:59I'll tell you that.
2:01Two, we'll both feel really good that we did this on stream. So, we're going to get in a $25 best ball draft over on DraftKings.
2:10It's the 20M millionaire, 3 million to first here contest. And I'm just going to click in right now. So, if anyone did
2:18want to join, they they could here.
2:2210 of 12, so there's two spots left here, Zach. And bang, that thing filled really fast.
2:29All right, so we got this. So, we're going to go through and like Zach said, we're going to kind of go through and
2:36you'll see obviously as we go through the sidekick. I got the sidekick tool up here on the right. Um you know, we'll see where I start to IKB
2:45and then we'll we'll talk about those those spots. And if we agree on certain spots, we'll we'll talk about that as
2:51well here.
2:52See if I can load this draft board up.
2:55Oh, and we got the 101. I love that. I mean, woo. If you are in this draft and watching live, feel free to let us know
3:04where you're picking here in this spot.
3:06But the 101, okay, Zach, so you're Bijan 101. That's that's your Yeah, so I'm I make for for boring television, you know, if you were just
3:18watching me draft. I I pretty much just click top guy. The only time I'm ever going to really deviate from that is if
3:25I'm in a really high stakes draft, like if I'm doing the 555 or the luxury box and I'm I'm noticing something in the
3:31room where like someone's on auto draft cuz we got the room to fill early morning and someone wasn't at their computer, you know. And I see, okay,
3:39hey, they're just drafting off ADP. And if I, you know, push this guy into them around the turn, they'll just take these
3:45top two guys and and that's good by me.
3:48I don't want either of them. You know, that's a situation where I might IKB off the top cuz I know I can exploit someone
3:54in my draft room or if I see someone who's already got, you know, three quarterbacks and I don't think they'd take a fourth and I all I need is to get
4:01my quarterback through the turn, maybe I do that. But for the vast majority of my drafts, like greater than 99%, I'm just
4:08clicking top guy and really I mean a big part of that is I'm doing so many slow drafts, so it's like
4:16I mean gosh, if I was to pause and like think through every single draft myself for, you know, 400 slow drafts at once,
4:23I'd I'd never go to bed, you know.
4:25>> [laughter] >> Yeah, I so so me personally, and it's not a hot take. I have Gibbs as the 101.
4:31I have Bijan as the 102.
4:34Like it's not like a thing like I would have no problem clicking Bijan here. In my head though, this is the way I I
4:41think about this and it again, it's not that big of a deal cuz I think at the end of the day, both these guys are
4:47probably going to crush if they play a full season. Like just be honest. Like if they play a full season, both these
4:52guys are going to smash, but one guy has Michael Penix and Tua as his quarterback. And the other guy just has
4:58a more competent offense with Jared Goff in Detroit that I trust. And no David Montgomery. That makes me feel even better cuz I feel very confident that
5:09Isaiah Pacheco is extremely washed. I think he came back from that injury way too fast for the Chiefs and he might
5:17have messed his career up honestly cuz that dude has no burst. So that that's the I don't know like I'm sure you guys don't have them that far
5:25apart, so it's not that big of a >> No, we we don't. In like the underlying Sims for how many points these guys
5:31score and in what weeks they score them, they're you couldn't really tell the difference if you cover the name up, you're not going to know. If I just
5:38showed you the game logs that exist in the Sims, you wouldn't be able to tell who's who, right? Really for us, the the
5:45reason why Bijan's the 101 and Gibbs the 102 in the sidekick is cuz we think that they're close enough that we don't want
5:54you to put all your eggs in one basket on it. We're We're saying, "Hey, it's not a big enough difference for you to
5:59accept a a bunch of outsize risk. Just try and get, you know, about equal exposure to these guys." And right now,
6:06I'm actually really underweight Gibbs, not intentionally. Like, if you in my heart of hearts, if you were like, "You only get to draft one team, pick your
6:13favorite guy." I'm like, Jahmyr Gibbs.
6:15>> You know? Right. But, I'm going to draft like 3,000 teams. So, I I got to balance my risk out a little bit. And so,
6:23you know, just from other people I think agreeing with our preferences of like, you and I both were just like, "Ah, I
6:30think I kind of prefer Gibbs, but they're similar." I think a lot of people feel that way. And so, I just
6:35happened to get a bunch of Bijan at the 102 as well, where it's like, "Hey, Gibbs and Bijan, they're basically the
6:42interchangeable 101." Yes. Something where if you are drafting a ton of teams, maybe you want to pay attention if you're getting lucky or unlucky on,
6:50you know, how those guys are falling to you. And maybe that would be a spot where you're like, "Okay, I I kind of
6:55want to be pretty even on these guys."
6:56So. Okay, so uh real quick, I I I I do I love what you're saying though because that does make sense to me. Like, it you
7:04you want to kind of you're drafting a ton of teams. If you just throw Gibbs up there, you're probably going to get very
7:10little Bijan in general. So, like, keeping Bijan at the 101, you're still going to get some Gibbs at the one and
7:16it's going to kind of even it out a little bit even though it sounds like, you know, you're lower. Um you're still going to get some
7:23at the two cuz not everyone is going to have Bijan at the one like like me. You know, some people are going to have
7:30Gibbs there cuz they're that close. We do have a Josh Allen. I mean, this draft might be gold here, sacks, cuz we got a
7:36Josh Allen in round two right here.
7:38>> Yeah, it's it's looking looking promising. Um I was really hoping we might get Bowers to sneak all the way to
7:44us. That's my That's my favorite pick in the second round, honestly. If you just ask me, "Who is your number one pick?"
7:50it would be between Jente and Bowers.
7:52Both Raiders. I like both of those quite a lot, so we are aligned there. So, okay. We're We're up real quick, so
8:02let's go look at the I'm going to look at the pool here. I mean, Derrick Henry fall seems kind of nice. So, I like that. I'm
8:11I'm cool with that from the top of the kick here. So, let's let's queue him up.
8:15Then you guys got Nico, A.J. Brown.
8:17Let's see what happens when I click Derrick Henry here. Let's see if anything changes.
8:22I'm assuming Nico goes right up there.
8:26Now, I'll be honest. I'm not as much of a Nico guy in general.
8:31I I definitely prefer the A.J. Brown, George Pickens side of this conversation for a few different reasons. I like George Pickens week 17 matchup. I like
8:42Dallas in general as a team. I think I'm going to lean there, so I'm going to go off real quick. Then we can talk about
8:49that real quick.
8:51Houston's just not an offense that I feel like I want to be invested in at the top like that with Nico. They've got
8:58Tank Dell coming back, who I think is a pretty good pick, and I think you guys agree kind of in the late rounds is a pretty
9:05good pick. We all know C.J. Stroud and Tank are boys.
9:09If Tank is even 80% healthy, which I know the injury was bad, I think he's going to put up some numbers, which could affect
9:18Nico, but I also believe that both Jaylen Noel and Higgins are very good or not very good, but competent to
9:28good receivers that can also put a dent in because I think they're all going to play a little bit, and it's not going to
9:34affect Nico's playing time per se, but I think they're all going to cut in a little and I think the defense is so
9:41good, you're going to see this team try and run the football and be ahead a lot in games and and you know, play kind of
9:49defense first that you know, if they got a punt, they punt cuz they let's be honest, they probably don't trust CJ as much. Look at that game in
9:57the playoffs. Like that's not sitting well with me. So, I just rather take George Pickens and rely on Dak in the
10:05Cowboys offense over Nico Collins where I see so many threats.
10:11I I just I I rather be invested in a better spot in my opinion than Dallas.
10:15So, tell me why maybe I'm a little off there.
10:19So, I think fundamentally we're we're more aligned here than you'd think because a lot of the things you're saying about these risk
10:28factors for Nico are things that we're accounting for like the specifically you mentioned the CJ Stroud like hey the you know, kind of wasn't looking so
10:36great last season. We definitely reflect some of that in the Sims where there is some some downside risk for CJ Stroud.
10:44Even you know, in some really rare outcomes CJ Stroud might even get benched before the end of the year.
10:50Doesn't happen very often, but >> shocked. But we've got you know, stuff like that happens in the Sims. And so there is that risk on Nico. However, I
10:58think where we're probably farthest apart on the decision between say like a Nico and a Pickens is we think the bad
11:06stuff for Pickens also can be very bad and a lot of that is coming more from you know, that's of his own making.
11:14That's of like what happens when the Cowboys are sub 500 and it's week 14 and George Pickens is coming off back-to-back three target performances
11:24and he's just pouty. He's just not in a good mood. You know, and so unfortunately I you You to talk about
11:30like raw talent like how good these guys actually are at football, like playing at their peak. I think George Pickens is
11:37one of the best receivers in the league.
11:38Like the guy is very, very good. He does some absolutely freaky stuff. So, he's pretty fun. And we actually, let me
11:47let me pull this up here. I just want to I want to validate. I'm going to look at some uh some actual sim outputs here and see
11:56So, we there are games at the end of the season, week 17, where George Pickens and Nico Collins, like on their upside,
12:03are we have them pretty similar when the good stuff happens for them. But, the problem is when the bad stuff happens
12:09for Pickens, we think it gets a little worse than it can get for Nico Collins.
12:13And so, I think that's probably where we're farther apart. Interesting. Okay, I Yeah, I wasn't even expecting the the side to be more of like his own
12:23doing from like uh you know, what George Pickens can do when uh you know, that happens. So, this is interesting right here. Luther Burden
12:32shoots up. We do have the week 17. He's second in the queue. Um I I also do have Jaylen Waddle pretty
12:40high up here.
12:42Um I I think I want to take them both, to be honest here. But, let's let's see what happens here. I'm going to take
12:48Waddle first. I just want to see if the the kick throws Luther up there or if it goes a different route. Yeah,
12:56so Evans up there. So, so talk to me about this here real quick cuz I in my head, I'm a big Luther Burden
13:04guy because I'm I'm a huge believer in the Bears. I'm a I was a believer last year. I'm a believer this year. So, talk
13:12to me about this though because I I'm going to click Luther, but tell me why, you know, that happened and I'm I'm a little off. Yeah, so we
13:21like Luther Burden a lot. One of the one of the misconceptions that we get often is for players that you don't see
13:29at the top of the sidekick. You're like, "Ah, Leg Up Must hate this guy." And And like I personally don't have very much
13:35Luther Burden right now. And all of us who work on the inputs for the rankings team, I don't think any of us are Luther
13:41Burden Bears. Like we all Last year he was one of our, if not our most drafted player. Like we fully believe in the
13:49talent. We're pretty bought in.
13:52I think again, this comes down to what do the bad things look like for Luther Burden rather than what do the good things look
14:00like? You want to talk about what the good things look like for Luther Burden.
14:04Let me I'm just going to pull up some random Luther Burden games in week 17 just to show you what the sims
14:11>> I was I was excited. Pull them up. So here's here's some just random sim games that I'm I'm looking at for Luther
14:19Burden here. This is week 17. 27 and a half fantasy points. Okay, that's pretty good. 30 fantasy points. Okay, pretty good. We got a 32 and a half one in
14:28here. Okay. We got a 45 burger in there.
14:31So we've got Luther Burden going nuclear in some of these rankings.
14:35>> for a second. I I I'm sparking a little bit over here. I might need a >> [laughter] >> second. If you you got to chill out a
14:41little bit. 32 and a half? I mean So here's here's the stuff where we just are a little cautious on him. And I
14:49think Now part of it is you saw he was right there near the top of the sidekick, you know, him and him and
14:55Evans were going back and forth. I think part of that was the bye week maybe when you took Jaylen Waddle. It was like, uh,
15:02just a tiny little tiebreaker, you know, having that same bye might ever so slightly take your advance rate down a little bit and maybe it preferred Mike
15:11Evans cuz they're similar enough. Now we have Mike Evans and Luther Burden both with similar bad stuff that could potentially
15:21happen to them at the end of the year.
15:23Yeah. Uh but at the beginning of the year, we've got it more likely that Mike Evans is, you know, if you were if you
15:32were just going to be guessing, hey, you know, it's week five and we're setting our DFS lineups, like pretend these guys
15:40are the exact same salary, who are you going to want to click more? Who's going to be projecting for more? We think Mike
15:47Evans has a little bit of an advantage there, but we think as the season goes on that changes, where it's more, hey,
15:53Luther Burden, the young guy, is probably going to earn more as the season goes on, and Mike Evans, as he gets older, and, you know, you've got
16:01George Kittle coming back from injury, maybe you've got, you know, De'Shawn Shribling or Ricky Pearsall takes a step in his third year. So So Mike Evans is
16:10more of a taper off, and Luther Burden is more of a on the rise kind of guy.
16:15Um and really what it comes down to there is I think it's just, hey, right now, the sidekicks like, all right, we started
16:23with a running back, we started two running backs, and we just need to make sure we've got healthy points, you know,
16:30starting early in the season, get a strong start at the wide receiver position. So that would be my best guess. Um but I am happy that we're
16:37seeing Luther Burden there near the top, um cuz he was one where I'm pretty sure all of us on the rankings team were like, oh, man, can we
16:45please get some Luther Burden? And like, we never want to lie to the inputs. We don't want to be like, ah, let's just
16:51change this so we get more of this guy, right? Like, we got to be truthful and try and do the thing that we think is
16:56the most correct. Um so I'm glad he was popping up there. It is funny cuz every time I'm drafting, cuz I am just I I
17:03just I want like I love the Bears, so I want like Cole Kmet, I want Luther Burden. Like every time I'm drafting, I'm like, please just
17:11please throw them up there. Like what What do I got to do to just get Luther Burden to be at the top of my queue
17:16here. All right, so we got BTJ here. I'm not a big BTJ guy, but I don't like this range at all. So, I'm going to click him
17:24here. Um Yeah, it's a bit of a it's a bit of a rough range. A lot of the time we like
17:30Mecole Hardman here.
17:32That's who I thought you were going to give.
17:34>> It look It looks like a Sim subset where maybe we're just not as interested in Mecole Hardman, so it is nice to see it
17:41diversify like that where I'm not just going to slam Mecole Hardman draft after draft cuz that's what it does feel like.
17:46>> Yeah, and there's no Dak there, so we got a few uh All right, let's see where this goes here. I'm
17:52These are These are players that I don't click very often, but I'm going to I'm going to trust this here with DK Metcalf
17:57here. And Christian Watson said "Zack, give us the sell. How much is this product and what's the discount for being Jay's hype man?" I'll say this,
18:08the product is that good, you don't need a discount, okay? I don't I don't exactly Zack can talk about the actual numbers or
18:15whatever it is for the product, but if you're doing volume drafting, this is definitely a product that's for you. If you're probably someone who's
18:25just throwing in a couple teams or something like that, maybe not, but if you're someone who's really getting into best ball, trying to take it serious, I
18:35couldn't recommend a product more than the the sidekick because more than not, it's going to help you in just the areas where you're unsure.
18:46Like like like right there, I'm like I hate this range.
18:50I you know, I don't have a strong take, Zack. Let me just follow what the sidekick's giving me here. Let's see
18:56what it gives me and let's go from there. And I'll do that with certain pockets where I don't feel comfortable with uh
19:04you know, the guys that are on the board. So, again, you know, it help It helps me none. I'm just telling you what I see. I always say it
19:14straight. If a product's good, I'm going to throw it out there. Product's very good, especially if you're someone who's drafting a lot.
19:22Yeah, I like it because, I mean, my use case for the sidekick, the whole thing when we very first were developing this
19:29is Shady Advice came to us and said, "I really want to make this tool for myself cuz I have fun drafting best ball and I
19:37want to do it.
19:39Um but it's not really feasible for me to like spend all that time on it myself and also I need people to help me with
19:45the inputs. Would you guys be interested?" And and of course we were very interested. If If Shady Advice ever asked you, you know, to collaborate with
19:53him, you just say yes, you know, when when a crusher uh that strong is is coming asking to collaborate. That's That's a no-brainer. So, uh
20:02really for me because we just built this to be like, "Hey, this is Shady's process." basically is what we're doing.
20:08I'm like, "All right, cool. If Shady Advice offered me his DFS process and all I had to do is click the same button
20:13as him." I'm like, "Yeah, where do I sign up?" And so that's what the sidekick is. So, if you want to copy
20:19exactly what Shady does, cool. Just click the top guy. If you want this to help you on spots where you're less
20:24certain or you want it to help you with diversification or you want it You're like, "I feel pretty good about the
20:29starter drafts, but like landing the plane is where I have the problem."
20:33It can help you exactly as much or as little as you want. And so that's that's kind of the thing that I like about Uh
20:39as far as taking into account your current ownership, the way we handle diversification is a generative process.
20:46So, we have full NFL season simulations and we are also simulating out your individual draft rooms. I'll I'll pick that back up after we're off the clock
20:55here cuz I think we're in a fun spot with these quarterbacks. We are in a fun spot and my my favorite running back in
21:00that spot just went. So, we're going wide receivers here. I mean, uh quarterbacks obviously.
21:07I I mean, you got an issue with Jackson Dart? We got a >> No, no. I I like him. Uh yeah, and he
21:13doesn't make it to this turn all that often, I feel like.
21:16>> No, and I he's a perfect guy anyways, like you know, Jackson Dart you don't need like the top tier guys with Jackson
21:26Dart. You can get someone late. Like he's an he's an easy stackable person late. So, now it throws up Matthew
21:32Stafford which I don't love here. I kind of like the Jared Goff with Gibbs or Bo Nix. What do you think? I think all
21:43three of these guys are fine, and I bet you if you open this draft up in this exact same position like 10 times, you'd
21:49see a different one of them at the top of the sidekick every time. I The only thing with Stafford is like it just
21:54feels wrong to me to have Stafford without uh Adams, Puka like type guy. But maybe I could have gotten like a tight end later, so I
22:04guess that could have been the the route to go.
22:06>> Yeah, and and also it's there there are some there's some amount of time, just like in DFS, right? There's some
22:14frequency with which you should play naked Matthew Stafford, right? It's really hard to know, like my human brain's never going to be like, "Yeah,
22:22this is the right time to play naked Matthew Stafford, right?" I still remember the one time it hit uh in in
22:28showdown because me and Big T were talking about how there's no way we can play Stafford without Adams or Puka in
22:36the captain. It's just it's not possible. Like it just it's it's so bad.
22:40And then it ended up being the winner.
22:42Yeah, he had four four four touchdowns to tight ends or whatever it was, yeah.
22:46>> even know how this happened, but I can't believe that we're so wrong about this.
22:51Like So, you're right. Like I can still remember the one time this happened, and I was just sitting there just I couldn't
22:57believe it that he was the captain winner, and Adams and Puka I don't think were on the winner. Well, and that
23:02dovetails with Jim Gerry's question really well, where it's like, "Hey, there is some small amount of the time that you should take naked Matthew
23:09Stafford here." And then maybe your plan is that you're going to stack him up later. Maybe you don't end up stacking
23:13him up, and that's okay. And so the generative process of of building a diversified portfolio is that we know how many fantasy points these guys score
23:23in tens of thousands of different simulations, and so we're able to recommend based on how often you would find this situation in a given draft,
23:32cuz we're simulating your draft room as well. We can tell you, "Hey, you should you should break this tie to Matthew
23:39Stafford this time." Maybe a bunch of the other time it's Bo Nix there, cuz you've already got Jaylen Waddle, right?
23:44But it's just helping you out in generating that diversified portfolio and not pigeonholing you, so you're like, "Hey, every time I end up here in
23:52the one hole where I get Jaylen Waddle, do I get Bo Nix at the 8-9 turn, right?"
23:57Cuz you don't want all of your teams to be like that, cuz then Bo Nix, you know, breaks his ankle again, and you're like,
24:02"Oh, [ __ ] all those teams were actually really good if they just didn't have Bo Nix on them." Or something like that.
24:08Yeah, so this is an interesting spot, and I always, and I know why we're not getting him at the top of the sidekick,
24:16because of our team, and we have zero tight ends, and uh it makes sense to me, but Aaron Jones is always at the top of
24:23my side I feel like he just sits at the top of my sidekick here, and I need the sell hard case with Aaron Jones, because
24:31in my mind, I'm like, "This dude is aging. He's had a ton of carries." I I feel like he he won't like he hasn't got
24:38through a full season forever. Um I'm going to go Ferguson here. I'm just uh Kincaid is falling, but I think it fits
24:45the team better, so I'm just going to go him in my week 17.
24:50Let's see if it Well, actually, I might go Ferguson and Kincaid. Let's see what >> Oh, IT'S AARON JONES.
24:56>> [laughter] >> DO I click it? All right, Zach.
25:01I don't click much Aaron Jones, but I'm going to click it here cuz you're on here. I still want the sell though cuz
25:06we need running back. We we we still need some uh some running backs here. I'll go with the third one.
25:12>> So tell me the We obviously we've got in the Sims, we have situations where Aaron Jones is injured, right? He's not playing or you
25:21know >> I'll give you another situation. What if Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, and the rookie they drafted end up all
25:31getting a little piece.
25:33That's my worry is these two vets, they can't handle a full workload. Maybe the young kid starts eating in to both
25:42their share a little bit, and then it hurts everybody. So we do have man, we've got some really stinky outcomes in
25:49the range for Aaron Jones. Especially, this is kind of aligned with how you think.
25:54Especially as you get later in the season. Like by the time you get to week 17, we think there's a lot of the time where
26:03Aaron Jones is just not doing very much.
26:06And so for for this team specifically, and I think this is probably true for a lot of teams where Aaron Jones ends up being
26:14the best guy. It's like is Aaron Jones gross? Absolutely. He's one where for the rankings team, we've gone over his inputs so many times cuz
26:22none of us want to draft him either.
26:24We're like, "Oh, no. We don't want to be the Aaron Jones guys, you know?"
26:27>> that everybody doesn't want to draft, but you guys know it. And there's always these guys. I swear, every time I use a
26:34sidekick, there's always one or two guys where nobody wants them, but you guys know that, and you're like, "Well, wait. There's some outcomes where
26:43Aaron Jones is a winner." And and I don't disagree with that. There are definitely outcomes where the Vikings are good, Aaron Jones is the best running back on
26:53the team and he kind of wins out and the rookie doesn't do much because he's not there yet and Jordan Mason's not very good. I
27:02mean there there's paths, you know what I mean? I just worry about the other paths. I think it's very close and
27:08there's some of these other running backs. I think this whole range is like littered with them though. Like Rashad White's a similar thing. I think
27:15Washington, you can make the case they drafted Keaton Allen. They've used three running backs before. JCM fumbles. Like there's paths where they try out all
27:27three of their running backs.
27:29Yeah, we and that's kind of the point with Aaron Jones. It's like, hey man, after this it's like how it's not
27:35getting any better, you know, and we only have two guys right now and that's one of the nice parts about, hey, we got
27:41Bijan and Derrick Henry to start or or Gibbs Henry to start.
27:45One of the nice things about that is we don't have to take a ton of other running backs. And so Aaron Jones is
27:51really just kind of there to be like, hey, these guys have a bye week and like, you know, sometimes one of these
27:56guys will miss a week or two with a dinged up ankle or something. And really if we if I pull up the week 17 game logs
28:04for Aaron Jones in the Sims, like 70% of the time he's scoring, you know, like 10 or fewer fantasy points.
28:11Maybe not 70, like 60. So he's not doing a ton for you as far as pull Honestly though 10 as crazy as this sounds, 10 can
28:20sometimes play. Yeah, exactly. And that's Like I'm just saying and I hate that stuff, but it it it can in Best
28:27Ball. Yep. We're we're locked in here.
28:30Let's let's pick this one back up in a second here.
28:33Uh so we got Jordan okay, Jordan Mason at the top with Aaron Jones. That's interesting. I like Tyron Tracy and I think there's paths where
28:44So I'm going to click Tyron first. Let's see what the team does and then >> an Omar Cooper fan.
28:50So, I don't This is another pick that I don't understand is the Omar Cooper thing and I need the hard sell here.
28:56There's another guy though that I love and I'm just going to take him because I don't know if he'll be there at the end
29:03and I just have a problem with not taking him because it's another It's another argument that I want to have with
29:08>> I know this is one you like a lot.
29:10>> over Woody Marks and Jordan Mason and some of these other dust balls, but before we get to him, Tyrone Tracy.
29:19Uh You guys seem like lukewarm on him, I would say. Like you you don't hate him, but you don't like love him is kind of
29:27how I'd view it with the sidekick cuz he he will sometimes, you know, get up there in the queue, but he's very rarely
29:33is he at the top and I don't know. I see outcomes where Cam Scarbrough is not 100% or you know, he plays like Cam Scarbrough
29:44which can get himself dinged up very easily here. Um he's coming back off of a tough injury and I like Scarbrough. I
29:52think he's a good player and there's outcomes where he smashes, but that guy Did you see his comments by the way? I
29:58mean, he struggled with math. That's not That's not a stat guy. I'll say that.
30:03Like you should be a Tracy You should be team Tracy. Like you should be holding the signs up. You should be like Mike
30:10McDaniels posting those posters for Ke'Shawn Mitchell. That's what you should be doing for Tyrone Tracy.
30:17Wanted, Tyrone Tracy.
30:19Um we I don't think we really dislike Tyrone Tracy. I think this is kind of a like the way that the Sims think about
30:26stuff.
30:28He's He's like We've got him pretty similar to a lot of these A lot of the other guys we just kind of saw like
30:34Woody Marks, Tyrone Tracy.
30:36They're kind of similar. We've got them relatively similar. We just have Woody Marks just a touch better.
30:43Um, hm. I think part of that is probably like a level of competition thing where when Scat [ __ ] is good
30:53we think Scat Abbo's, you know, better than David Montgomery. Now, granted Scat Abbo's got that injury stuff to clear, which can be concerning.
31:00Um, but yeah, for Tracy the other thing that's like the fly in the ointment with him there is Devin Singletary still exists and I know that
31:09seems like such a nothing burger, but Devin Singletary is one of those players who's kind of like creeping ivy, man.
31:15Like every every team that finds themselves with Devin Singletary on it that dude just finds a way onto the field, man. He He is just Devin
31:23Singletary is a professional ass football player. Like he might not be sexy. He's not, you know, out there breaking long runs anymore or anything,
31:31but he does what coaches like. Like he understands the assignment and he's out there doing the right stuff. And that's just annoying enough that in the really
31:41good outcomes for Tracy like you're talking about, "Hey, Scat [ __ ] banged himself up again or he's not 100%."
31:47In those scenarios, it's like, "Ah, it's so frustrating. Freaking Devin Singletary came in and got a goal line carry again, took that away from Tyron
31:55Tracy, right?" And in the scenarios that are similar to to that for Woody Marks, it's like, "Oh, David Montgomery's old and dusty. You know, he's he's toast.
32:04They got to really lean on Woody Marks."
32:07It's like the next guy behind Woody Marks is like you know, are you Dare Ogunbowale where Woody Marks is more like duplicative
32:14skill So it So So you're putting a little more stock into the third running back, which is interesting for these two teams to to tiebreak
32:24almost, right? Yeah, and I think really they're they're pretty similar. There's not a huge difference between them.
32:30Okay. All right. So the kick is telling us tight end here, which is interesting.
32:35We got Dalton Schultz at the top. Um A.J. Barn, I don't know. I like Our tight ends Oh, we're we're kind of
32:43lacking it. We only got Ferguson.
32:45Uh well, one guy I'm definitely going to take cuz we have Goff and I I like his Isaac TeSlaa. Um the kid doesn't like
32:52him very much, but I don't think a lot of people like Isaac TeSlaa, so I don't think that's like a I think I I think he's a guy a lot of
32:59people are low on. Um Gunner Helm, we got a week 17.
33:06Uh we'll take Schultz. Uh we we just need we need bodies here at tight end, so this might this might be a
33:12four tight end team here, Sam.
33:14>> Schultz is Schultz is like a great definition of a body cuz that guy is he is out there. He's going to be playing.
33:20There might be a little bit of concern where, you know, maybe Cade Stover is more healthy this year. They drafted Marlon Klein, and so it's like maybe
33:27that eats into it a little bit, but we've got that reflected in our Dalton Schultz inputs where we've we've got some pretty bad stuff, and even in like
33:35the not not bad outcomes for Dalton Schultz, I'm looking at it right here.
33:40And we have we have times where he's losing work even in like more likely outcomes, not talking about like the bad
33:46tail stuff. Um so Yeah. even even that it's just like at this price that's that's one thing I've noticed with a lot of these late tight ends.
33:54It's like the market just depressed them a lot this year. It's like, man, these guys are just going to be out there
33:59getting targets like basically every week. And you're starting to get down in the range of the draft where that's not the case for a lot of the other
34:07positions around here. You know, you're looking at like a Dylan Sampson or like a Chris Bell here goes goes around here,
34:14and it's like, man, like Chris Bell's cool as a prospect. Like I I liked him a lot as a prospect, but
34:20you know, he's coming off a torn ACL.
34:22Like that can be really hard for rookies. That The saying I really like about, you know, why that can be difficult for rookies is a Tomlinism.
34:30It's it's hard to board a moving train.
34:32you know? It's like, "Hey, you miss all of mini camp as a rookie, maybe he's active for the last, you know, couple
34:39weeks of training camp, or maybe he even misses that." And then it's like, man, it's just hard to get up to speed. And
34:44and especially, you know, the dolphins are probably playing it's a lost season anyway. So, they're like, "Eh, whenever this guy's ready, he's ready." And so
34:51>> That's like the good but bad thing is they probably have no need to rush him back. Right.
34:57>> So, if he's at all still nursing something or not 100%, like there's no way they're just going to be like, "Yeah, you're good. You're
35:05at like 90%. Like, you're fine. Like, start start practicing, learning." Like, they're they're going to be probably ultra cautious with them. Uh but
35:14if he does figure things out, he could be a rookie that helps you at the end, right? A lot of rookies, you know, not
35:21do much all year. And honestly, you see it in a lot of the the winning best ball teams, where you'll look at these
35:27winning best ball teams, and you'll be like, "Well, they have three dudes on this team at least that like didn't contribute at all." And then they they
35:35had like two dudes who didn't contribute until like week 15. But then they started contributing and ended up helping them win $3 million, or $2
35:45million whatever.
35:47Yeah, no, it it definitely uh you know, I I can definitely see the paths like that for Chris Bell. But yeah, look at
35:53like if you look at these picks immediately after we take Dalton Schultz, it's like Nick Singleton. Like, there's paths where this guy gets on the
35:59field this year. There's also paths where he doesn't really play. Tyreek Hill, like, that guy might not ever play another snap of football. He's a
36:0632-year-old with a knee dislocation.
36:09>> report from a Schefty today that said, um he might be looking more like a mid-season if he plays. Like, I
36:16>> We yeah, I think we are closer to like if he is going to come back, we're looking like week 10-ish in in the sims.
36:23And we've got stuff where he comes back before that, and stuff where he comes back after, but we we do a lot of
36:27research on, you know, this injury recovery timeline stuff and I'm definitely more worried. I was like into Tyreek Hill as like a last round pick
36:35cuz I'm like, as a last pick, like that's fine, you know what I mean? But I don't I like if he's going earlier
36:43than that now, I'm a little worried.
36:45Deebo just went. I like the Deebo pick there. That was a good fall.
36:50Um I'm totally into Ted Hurse, so I love that pick. He's one of my pre-draft he was one of my highest
36:58rookies um that I drafted, so and I love the spot. I love the landing spot, no Mike Evans.
37:05I think he's got a clear path to uh some real playing time at least and they kind of they kind of said that uh a little
37:12bit, so that's good. Let's see where the kick goes now. It it jumps tight end.
37:17I think that's the right move, right?
37:19We're at a 2572 here.
37:25Yeah, I really like Freiermuth, too. I think he's a pretty strong click for how cheap he goes. I mean, remember when we
37:31were drafting this guy in like, you know, the 10th round just a couple years ago?
37:35I think people just are like over indexing to the Arthur Smith years where he's like, all right, I'm going to play
37:41three different tight ends and you know, I'm sorry, Pat Freiermuth, you just don't get to do the same stuff you always used to
37:48>> Washington like really messes him up to a little bit cuz they love him as like a blocker, but then he'll leak out and
37:55catch some random touchdowns and you're like, what the heck? You know, and Freiermuth's more like the he plays more like the Mike Gesicki role like like in
38:04Cincinnati where Gesicki's not always on the field, but when he's on the field is when they're like for sure passing, right?
38:12And you get those like obvious passing situations. I feel like that's a little bit more Freiermuth's role. He might have a a little better role than
38:20Gesicki, but it's closer to that and it it probably irritates people cuz he's not on the field as much as like let's
38:27say Gunner Helm probably will be this year.
38:29>> Right. Right.
38:31Uh yeah, I think I think with Freiermuth the other thing that helps him is there's no more Jonnu Smith there. So,
38:37him and Darnell Washington should be able to consolidate a little bit. And it it wouldn't surprise me if they end up,
38:42you know, playing a decent amount of two tight end sets as the NFL meta seems to be shifting towards that. And if they do
38:49that then >> happening.
38:52You know it's happening. They're all going to two and three tight end sets.
38:56And you could see it by the draft, too.
38:57There were teams that I felt didn't need tight ends that were just taking tight ends. Oh, the Jags were Jags were
39:03slamming tight end. They did go Nate Boudin in the second round, and then yeah.
39:08And they took another blocking tight end there.
39:10>> Took the other one in the fourth. I'm trying to remember his name. He actually He was the one we liked better from a
39:16fantasy standpoint. Not that he's, you know, really on the radar very much this year.
39:21>> What's his name? Oh, let me look.
39:27JSU, what are you doing with $3 million?
39:28Uh what would I do with $3 million? I don't know. I'd probably just jam more basketball.
39:34>> Tanner Tanner Koziol. That's what it is.
39:36Tanner Koziol. Yeah, I remember that that kick actually in the pre-draft stuff was liking him a little bit. Yeah, we we sprinkled him a little. He was in
39:44that like Justin Jackson kind of range.
39:47Unfortunately, Justin Jackson is we've put him in the I love Justin Jackson, and he just went to my nightmare. Yeah. Absolute nightmare of
39:56>> Sean Payton put him in the coffin.
39:59God.
40:00>> [gasps] >> I can't do it. I can't do Evan Engram, but I can't do Justin Jackson, and I I want to do Justin Jackson so bad, and I
40:07can't do it. He was really fun. If he had landed in a good spot, he he could have been interesting. Um but yeah,
40:13>> been, Zach? What could have been?
40:17Unbelievable.
40:19Um All right, let's see here. Oh, this range is going to be brutal here. So, I Greg Dulcich, Evan Engram, these are not
40:29guys that I jive with here. So, we're going to have to Oh, you're not a you're not a Dulcich believer. I am not a Dulcich believer.
40:36Even though he did win me actually actually this is a lie. He won me like 60k in showdown. So, I I'm a massive Greg Dulcich fan. I forgot
40:47about that. You know what?
40:49That's just reminded me. I'm going to take my first Greg Dulcich pick.
40:52>> Yeah, I think it I think it's got to come back around. I think Dulcich is a pretty good click >> [clears throat]
40:57>> with all the nobody there. Like what's the what's the Dulcich? Oh, we're we're back up here. Hold on.
41:04Mhm. Trey Harris or Mooney. It's kind of a nice fall for Trey Harris. I do like Mooney though.
41:14Should I take the fall or Mooney? What do you think, Zach? Uh Uh [gasps] I think Harris uh we man we really think
41:22Harris stinks, too. Like we I took Mooney. I took >> That's okay. Save save me from Trey Harris. You know you know it's a guy
41:29that I don't like to click when it's top guy and I'm like God, I guess. Uh dude >> That's like the first time I've ever
41:35heard you say that. Like I've never heard someone clip that. That's the first time they've ever done that. We we kept looking at the Trey Harris inputs
41:44that we had were like I mean this guy's bad though. Like how do we how do we tell the Sims he's he's worse cuz he
41:50keeps popping up and like all the inputs are are right, you know, like we're not telling him he's good and we just like
41:57could not we really couldn't stop getting him to pop up. I think it's just because you're getting to the point in a draft
42:04where it's like everyone else is starting to be like hey, there's not really a way for this guy you know, barring injury or barring some
42:13really unlikely thing happening for them to be the person that could be on the field and through wide receiver sets all
42:19the time. Right. And even though we think Trey Harris stinks and we think that it's very possible that he's not on
42:25the field in three wide receiver sets and and he loses that role to someone else. Like he's bad enough that you
42:31could literally be learning a name. It might not even be Brandon Thompson, you know, it's just like, oh, who's this guy
42:36that's playing wide receiver for the Chargers, right? But even with all that considered, even as as bearish as we are on his outlook, it's still like, yeah,
42:45but the likelihood of him doing that and being on the field there is strong enough that it's worth a click. And so,
42:54he's one where I just plug my nose and trust that we we did our homework well and and put the right inputs in. Um It's
43:00really interesting cuz I was looking at all the the numbers for Mike McDaniel's in the Dolphins last year and, you know,
43:07EPA per pass, uh they were number one um out of 13 personnel. So, three tight ends, right? Like they they were number
43:15one there. And then, um pass rate, uh they they one of the highest pass rates out of 13 personnel. So, um it's interesting because they clearly
43:27went in free agency, they signed Charlie Kolar, they go get David Njoku, they have Arion Key Gatson.
43:34I mean, you can't tell me that their idea is not to go heavy and play, you know, 12 and 13 personnel with their their moves, you
43:44know what I mean? Their moves are just telling me that they view Arion Key Gatson probably more as just like a a
43:50pass catcher, like a a you know, a Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth type like pass catcher. And you know, these other guys,
44:00they probably want to go heavy sets.
44:01They probably want to run a little more, throw a little more. The problem is like, is Trey Harris only going to play
44:07in those heavy sets? Is he going to play or are they going to use the the Thompson kid they drafted in three wide
44:14receiver sets, which I think is an actual thing that could happen because McDaniels was literally having like a hard-on in the draft room when they
44:22drafted this kid. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see.
44:27>> He said he was going to take his shirt off.
44:29I'm really interested to see how they deploy him. My thought is that he's probably there as like the this is the best job we can do at
44:38stretching the field. And so I think a lot of the routes he gets will be empty calorie routes.
44:44Um We're up with the last pick here and I kind of love this Theo Johnson pick right here.
44:50This is our fourth Wait, is this our fifth tight end?
44:54Screw it. I think we need five tight ends.
44:57Let's see. We had Ferguson, Schultz, uh Uh Ferguson, Schultz, uh Friermuth Friermuth, Dulcich, yeah.
45:06I'm done.
45:07>> we were we were really late to start at tight end. So we didn't get any elite guys. What we lacked in quality we made
45:13up for in quantity. Yeah, I I don't have much five tight end rooms, but uh there we go right there. My first uh
45:20five tight end. We got a 2585, which is interesting. We got Gibbs, Henry, Pickens, Waddle, Burden. I love our wide receiver room. Even though I'm
45:31not that high on BTJ, still BTJ, DK Metcalf, um I think that's kind of unique, too.
45:37Go just like wide receiver just heavy in that range. And then we got Dart and Goff, um right there uh together like
45:47comboed. And then Ferguson, Aaron Jones, Tracy, Keaton Mitchell, Teslaw, Dalton Schultz, Ted Hearst, Pat Friermuth, Greg
45:56Dulcich, Darnell Mooney, and Theo Johnson to round that off there. I You know, Zach, that's a pretty solid team right there. I kind of like it.
46:07Yeah, this is a fun one. It's a little different than a lot of the times I notice the Sidekick wants in those late
46:13windows. It's trying to hit some of those undervalued receivers like you commented about Debo would have been nice if he made it to us. It likes
46:20Travis Hunter a good bit, but I think the way that it handled wide receiver in this draft is like, all right, we didn't
46:26get any of the first two round guys.
46:28We're just going to hammer all these guys that, you know, I pretty much every one of our first five receivers are all guys that should be out there
46:37for all the routes and should be, if not the target leader on their team. I think Brian Thomas is the one that's like a
46:44little more ambiguous there. I guess you could say DK Metcalf might not lead his team. It might be Pittman there. Um, but
46:50you know, between >> you can make the case that Pittman has a real shot at it. Like it's close, I think, is is more what I'm saying. I
46:58think Pittman as a receiver fits Aaron Rodgers better because he's more of that short um, you know, Aaron Rodgers low a dot. He's
47:09more of that short to medium range just kind of receiver, right? Whereas DK Metcalf I don't know if he's he's not as much of
47:18like the volume, you know, stuff. He's just going to make the big plays after the catch, whereas Michael Pittman is like the He's like the meat and
47:25potatoes, right? It's just like there's not a ton that's special about him, but he's going to do things right. He's a
47:31vet and Rodgers likes that, right? He doesn't like the young rookies, you know, that don't know what they're doing or he has to tell them. He he's going to
47:41go for these vets. So, like Michael Pittman, I think is someone that will fit well with Aaron Rodgers, just the way
47:48because Aaron Rodgers, if you go back and watch last year, I'm he did not want to get hit. No.
47:55>> like it was like very clear and evident he was getting the ball out quick because he was terrified of getting hit.
48:02He couldn't take any more hits cuz he's too old and frail, which I totally understand. And So he was getting That's
48:09why they were check-down Charlie and and stuff like that. That's That's why that was happening or one of the reasons at
48:14least.
48:16Yeah, I don't know how much money it would take for me to take a a hit from an NFL defensive player.
48:23But yeah, it would probably be a good amount. So I don't I don't judge Aaron Rodgers. Um but yeah, his time to throw
48:28was like, you know, sub 2.6 seconds.
48:31He's just ripping that thing out there.
48:33So yeah, I do think, you know, Pittman is a wide receiver who is in the place where he expects you to be. And I mean,
48:39you want to talk about something that tilts Aaron Rodgers off the face of the earth. If you're not at the spot where
48:43you're, you know, you're supposed to be at the spot at this time, and you're not there, like that's a great way to ride
48:48pine. So I think Pittman definitely fits well with him there where he he's a professional wide receiver. He'll be able to do all that stuff. So he could
48:56lead the team in target share, but I think those those five receivers we start with just all have such strong target volume that's a really good floor
49:04for us. And then we've got some pretty fun ceiling stuff where it's like, man, you get the Luther Burden breakout, or
49:09what if BTJ returns to form that he had his rookie season, what if Jaylen Waddle, you know, really just ends up
49:16being like, you know, the Michael Thomas slant boy of the Denver offense.
49:20>> I like that. George Pickens keeps his stuff together, you know, I mean, shoot, we saw when when Pickens was, you know,
49:27at his peak powers last year. My god, like Look out.
49:31>> too, like when I like getting Pickens and Ferg or CD and Ferg because we know like Ferg's weight path is is when one
49:41of these guys gets banged up. So I I feel like the actual best stack is when you get one of them with Ferg. Cuz Ferg,
49:50if both those guys stay healthy, is going to be a not that good. Cuz his his target share when both those guys are in
49:57goes way down. Yeah, he's more ho-hum then. He's he's kind of he levels down to like Dalton Schultz tier, you know.
50:03>> That's why I like the five tight end build a little bit more the more I was thinking about it cuz I'm like, all
50:07right, kind of covers us if if Ferg doesn't get that good run out with one of these guys going down kind of kind of covers us there. Do you
50:15want to hop in one more draft? Yeah, let's do one more. Let's do let's do it here. I'm going to hop Hop in right now
50:21$25 on DraftKings if anyone wants to join us.
50:25We got three of 12 here.
50:28Perfect. Hop on in DraftKings 3 million to first here. Okay, so this gives me time though real quick as we uh
50:36you know hop into this next draft here. I got to get my Keaton Mitchell take out here real quick.
50:42>> Okay. And I don't know if the sidekick actually takes cuz you guys take a lot of things into account a lot more than I
50:48actually thought in my head. So, I don't know if it takes into account coaches putting up wanted posters of play saying
50:57like, "Please get me Keaton Mitchell."
50:59just all over the place in his new job.
51:03Um but that's like legit what happened and you can't tell me that Mike McDaniel doesn't like a certain type of player.
51:12Like he doesn't prefer certain types of players. And if you just told me to build him build Mike McDaniel a a player that he would love, I'd build
51:23him Keaton Mitchell.
51:24Like literally, I would just I I would literally build him a carbon copy of Keaton Mitchell because he is exactly what he wants. Dude, speed
51:33speed speed. That's what he cares about.
51:35That's why they drafted that kid Breiden Fehoko. Um dude is fast as hell.
51:40Uh Keaton Mitchell is going to give that offense almost like the the the the the different like you're going to have like Omarian Hampton who's
51:50going to be like the bull and he's going to be like lightning [ __ ] and it's going to compliment each other really
51:55well. And I I would bet that this is going to be more of like a 60/40 type thing with Hampton and Keaton Mitchell.
52:04And Keaton Mitchell is going to have weeks that we won't be able to predict maybe for DFS. But in best ball we don't
52:12have to do that. He's just going to have weeks where he's going to rip off some massive runs. And he's going to hit some
52:19lineups for people in the 160s right now. Like 160 to me is a steal. If you like I'll take him over Woody Marks.
52:28I'll take him over Isaiah Pacheco. I'll take him over Who else is in that range right there that I'm I'm trying to think of? Um
52:37Zach Charbonnet who who we don't even know if he when he's coming back. Jordan Mason.
52:43Uh Algier. Jonah Coleman. Nixon Like give me give me him over all those guys.
52:49Like that I think that's like the easiest click ever. And I don't get his ADP. I don't get the 160 I got to pull
52:55this up here real quick. Um I don't get it Zach. So explain it to me a little bit cuz I feel like you guys are more
53:02maybe in line with ADP. Yeah. So we Pat really likes Keaton Mitchell and the upside. So we definitely you know we're
53:10we're aligned with Like for example I just pulled up a random let's see what week I pulled up.
53:15I pulled up week eight in the Sims just to see you know hey we're halfway through the season what's happening for
53:20Keaton Mitchell.
53:22And I just I want to get a temperature check to see how far off we are from you. So if you had to tell me like how often is
53:30is Keaton Mitchell putting up more than 10 fantasy points in week eight?
53:36How how often? Yeah.
53:39Um I I know like Like a percentage, you mean? Yeah, yeah.
53:47I'd I'd say I I would literally say, but again, I I'm higher on him, but I would say like I think he's got like a
53:5330 or 40% chance of putting up 10 plus.
53:57Okay, I don't think we're that far off from you. Let me Let me look at this. So But I It sounds like to me I also think
54:05there's a chance where he could steal more and more of Hampton's stuff. Okay, so we're a little off from you. I think
54:12we're we're probably, you know, about 5, 10% off from you as far as like how likely he is to to clear 10. We do have
54:19some pretty big spike weeks in here for him, cuz I think a lot of the way that those happen for him are breaking long
54:25runs, like you're talking about, you know, a guy rips off a 70-yard touchdowns, like, oh, all of a sudden he has like I'm looking at a a week here.
54:33There's 22.7 DK points. Okay, cool. And and like you're saying, that's pretty nice for best ball, didn't have to decide when to start it, you know.
54:41But I think it it might just be that difference in how frequently it happens.
54:46Um Not not just the spike weeks, but like the kind of like what we were talking about of the, you know, Tyron Tracy and and
54:53type stuff there. We got JSN at six.
54:55We'll take a Yeah. Say JSN at six here.
54:59So So yeah, so okay, so Um The other thing I will say Oh, go. Go.
55:05Finish. As far as taking the work from Hampton, we do have outcomes where like say Hampton gets injured, or we also
55:13have outcomes where Hampton's pretty bad. Like he's just not a not a very good or or special or exciting player.
55:20Um cuz we did get a relatively limited sample from him last year. And after, you know, he had a couple decent games before he gets
55:29hurt, then he's gone for most of the season. He comes back, and he's really not 100%, so it's really hard What I'm
55:35saying is we got a pretty wide range of outcomes for Zamir and just because really good prospect you know goes in
55:41the first round gets good draft capital but then we just don't get to observe very much in the NFL so we just can't be
55:46too confident in anything with him. We can't confidently say oh he's this or he's that. And so there are outcomes where
55:54it is more of an even split like you're describing like when I look at let me pull up the the bad Hampton and then Cuz
56:01real quick like Raheem Mostert when you look at him as a runner like he he didn't get a lot of opportunities but
56:07when you look at his numbers like they're pretty good like I mean it's it's super limiting but like 5.7 yards per carry I mean like
56:15that's that's up in the top range of the the top running backs. Now obviously it's a very small sample size so I don't
56:23think you can really take a ton from that but you know like Devon Achane was the Miami running back and he's the he's
56:31like got the best yards per carry mark of any running back with over 100 touches. By by a decent margin at 5.67 like I think
56:39Mike McDaniel was trying to find a guy like an Achane to kind of fit to complement with a Hampton. That's my
56:47that's my idea behind it.
56:49>> Really quick are you Trey McBride here or are you Chase Brown?
56:52>> I am Chase Brown. I'm not I'm not into Arizona as much so yeah what what what do you think of
56:59that? I definitely understand it. We have we have a lot of bench risk for for Jacoby Brissett. We we think there
57:07are lots of outcomes. If you've if you've done any superflex drafts with the sidekick you'll notice we do tell you to take some Carson Beck.
57:15>> [laughter] >> And so we do think they can get back.
57:19What's the sidekicks like what's the percentage that you guys see like the playoff weeks Carson Beck quarterback cuz I think it's pretty high. Let me
57:28see. I don't know if I don't know if I can tell you the exact percent or Shady might kill me, but I
57:33can give you an idea.
57:34>> don't tell me an exact I don't need you getting I don't need you getting killed here. Um I think it's very
57:39>> I can I can tell you we think it's more likely um that Carson Beck is starting in week 17 than Jacoby Brissett. I I
57:47100% agree. Like 100% >> We Now, hang on. Here's a fun one, too.
57:52We also think that there are some outcomes where Gardner Minshew is starting in week 17. Ah, interesting.
57:58Okay. That Not Not a lot, but some.
58:03Huh.
58:04I get I mean, I guess it could be like a Jacoby Brissett run out from last year, right? Well, we I I think I think what's
58:11happening in those sims is that Jacoby gets benched, Beck comes in cuz they want to give the the rookie a shot.
58:18>> Yeah. And it's so bad that they know by you know, maybe Beck takes over week nine or something. And then by week 14,
58:26they're like, "Enough. Enough of this.
58:28>> [laughter] >> We're not This is We We already know. We have the answer. We don't need to put people through this anymore." And And at that
58:36point, you're like, "I mean, maybe What if Gardner Minshew could could do like a you know, a little reclamation project for us here. Maybe he's the bridge next
58:44year when we get a a rookie." Um And so, I think that's probably what's going on in those sims. So, yeah, I I definitely understand your
58:53hesitation with uh with the car >> Listen to this, though. You can't tell me this schedule wasn't set up for Carson Beck to play in what's this? 15
59:0216 17 Week 15 start against the New York Jets at home, right? Like it makes total sense to me. Week 15, Carson Beck is
59:13your starter at home. Um before that, this schedule is brutal. Like like they get the Jets, the Raiders, the Saints, and San Francisco to finish out their
59:24season. Those are the four games.
59:27The The rest of the schedule though is absolutely brutal. They got to play Philly and and the Rams and Kansas City
59:33at Kansas City at Seattle, Denver, Detroit.
59:38This is not the Chargers. This is a rough schedule, man. Like the Arizona Cardinals are not going to be good in
59:45this division. Carson Beck starts that the Jets game. That's my That's my call right there. That Jets game, week 15, playoffs. You'll You'll see Carson Beck
59:56as the starter. I I hope so cuz I'm going to be making a lot of money in Superflex then. I mean, provided he does
60:01like anything, but >> [laughter] >> I I won't lie. I have drafted some from the Kicks' advice in in some Superflex
60:09drafts. Uh there with Oh, Rashee Rice went 29th there. So, that's good. Uh Jeremiah Love is a faller here at 30. We
60:19got Nico Collins also a faller.
60:23Uh some people listening Some people in this draft might be listening to my Nico takes.
60:26>> I was going to say, it's two guys you don't like. You don't like the Cardinals. You don't like Nico. What are
60:30you going to do here? I'm a Tee Higgins fan. Can I go Tee Higgins? I'm going to go Tee Higgins.
60:35>> Yeah, you you you can go Tee Higgins.
60:36You can back with Chase Brown. Yeah, Chase Brown. I like that there. And I think the Ravens have some really interesting late
60:46picks. I I don't know And I think the sidekick's starting to come around to some of these these young guys like Surratt and the like
60:54>> We do like Surratt a good amount. Um we haven't I thought he'd pop up more for us just based on the inputs that we
61:01had cuz we liked him a lot pre-draft and then we, you know, we still liked him post-draft but I think it's probably just the way that
61:09it shakes out in the sims where there are a lot of the times when it's like, "Ah, shoot. Jacoby Lane's the rookie
61:15that's important there." Or and vice versa, where they just the opportunities there might be limited enough where it's like, ah, without the
61:23clarity, we have uncertainty right now.
61:26But shoot, a month from now or two months from now, maybe we get more information and it's like, oh yeah, Surratt's playing with the ones in camp
61:33here. Like he's he's the guy that's playing with the ones and it looks like Lane is more like the Rashod Bateman,
61:39you know, replacement or like those guys will will swap snaps or something. Then all of a sudden, that uncertainty would collapse and we would like Surratt a lot
61:48more even. And so, I don't think that's a bad, you know, take at all to try and like front run that a little bit. What I
61:55would say is the way that we handle all that stuff in the Sims is where we've got that uncertainty baked in to some of these more ambiguous
62:04situations and we're helping you manage your risk by trying to do that at hey, we're saying this is the frequency that
62:10these different events happen at. Right.
62:12>> And so, if we're saying, hey, maybe only takes Surratt one out of every 10 drafts right now. It's like, okay, cool. And
62:19then later we might Like this happened last year where we were kind of telling people to pump the brakes on Que Shawn
62:25Judkins when stuff was up in the air and then prior to getting all of the news out just from our our research and
62:31digging into the situation, it really looked like it was going to be wheels up for him. We started hammering him. Like
62:37just right before, you know, all the positive news comes out where it's like, hey, it looks like there's not going to
62:42be charges pressed. This guy's going to be in a good spot. He's going to play.
62:47Um and so, I think we do a pretty good job of adjusting very quickly to new news. And so, what I would just say is
62:56if you're using the sidekick and there's guys that you got your eye on like that, like Surratt, and and there starts to be a drumbeat or
63:03even you might not have even heard anything yet, but we're just we're grinding this [ __ ] And so, if you start
63:09seeing a guy where it's like, oh my god, Surratt's coming up in the 19th round every draft. It's like, all right, you
63:14might want to slam some drafts in because we're we're telling you, you know the drum beats here. Right. Uh all right, so top of the sidekick is Devonta
63:22Adams. Cam Scarabos right below it. Um Colston Loveland just went. He was the top of my uh my ranks here. These are like three of
63:33my my favorite picks on the board. So you wouldn't make me sad with any of them. I'm kind of a Scarabos guy though
63:38at heart.
63:38>> Yeah, I I'm going to go Scarabos too. I just I like the I like the spot like I like having Trey Sermon Tracy too. I
63:46honestly wouldn't have anything against probably taking them together honestly cuz I like the situation, but um it's a spot where like even though I
63:55like Tracy, I do agree with you like there's definitely got to be some outcomes where some pretty good outcomes where Scarabos is just a winner at this
64:03They've got a way better pick than Bucky Irving. Like Bucky Irving to me, I think is one of the worst picks on the board
64:11in this range. Um and I think it's because you have two other guys that are going to play a clear role that's going to
64:19kill Bucky Irving's upside. It's going to kill him from a touchdown standpoint probably with the goal line stuff and the passing down work with Kenny
64:28Gainwell. So you got Sean Tucker who they've shown will they'll throw right in there at the one and you tell me you
64:35guys are looking at these these third running backs like Sean Tucker is got to be playing a little bit of a role in
64:44Bucky Irving, right? Like you guys got to be somewhere >> a lot of we get a lot of Sean Tucker. We
64:48like Sean Tucker. Um Scarabos though going back to him, that offensive line is going to be so much improved from what it was last year um
64:59just from health and then also additions. So I think that's pretty strong. Also you get Greg Roman there coordinating the run game who like say
65:07what you will about Greg Roman, but like there is one thing he he very well and that's [laughter] that's the running
65:12game. So, when >> He's always done it well. when you only give when that's his only job, it's like, all right, cool. I I can trust you
65:18to handle this, you know?
65:20So, I'm I'm pretty excited about that.
65:22And then also the fact that like Sk a b not having the absolute elite athleticism that the very top tier guys
65:31like a you know, the first round running backs have, Sk a t a b o o's basically built in a lab for like being a fantasy
65:38running back. He is extremely high success rate, very good at the goal line, very good you know, in pass protection and
65:47receiving. And the pass protection very good might be overstating it a little bit, but he's very enthusiastic in pa- you know, that guy ain't ever he's never
65:55dogging a snap out there.
65:57So, we're up. And And in my head, I was like, man, this team actually Lamar Jackson fits kind of interesting with
66:04this team, the way we have it with Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, like going the opposite way with the week 17. Mike
66:11Evans is at the top though. I think they're both really good. I I like Mike Evans a lot. I'm kind of surprised that
66:17his ADP is where it is. Um, like I I think that he really should probably be more in that, you know, into the fourth round
66:26rather than the fifth round here.
66:28Um, I I think >> should be going where Davante Adams goes.
66:31>> Ex- Exactly. Thank you. Like, what's the difference between There's no difference. The only difference maybe you could say is that,
66:40you know, Matthew Stafford's a little better than Brock Purdy. Okay, what whatever, fine.
66:45Like, the Rams maybe a little bit. But, outside of that, it's not that big of a difference. And he doesn't have Puka to
66:53contend with with targets and stuff, even though he is the the dominant red zone guy still. Like, Davante is the the
67:01goal line >> He's their goal line back, you know?
67:03>> But, Mike Evans is that and more. Yep.
67:06>> Like, Mike Evans is that and and more.
67:09And if you told me at the end of the year pick someone not named Davante Adams to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, I
67:16would pick Mike Evans. Like out of every receiver because if he you guarantee me full health I'll take Mike Mike Evans in this
67:26offense is going to smash. Well, it also there's there's other factors that really make that like that path seems really really plausible when you think
67:36through Christian McCaffrey's rushing efficiency was way down last year, success rate down, right? The only thing that he's really holding on to is he's
67:45still a fine pass catcher, right? And so all of a sudden you got this guy who's kind of wavering in his effectiveness as
67:50a rusher. So you get down to the goal line, they need other answers. What are their answers been historically? Well, Brock Purdy throws it up to George
67:57Kittle. Well, unfortunately, that guy's coming off an Achilles tear and he's in his 30s. And you know What [laughter] was that What was the
68:04next answer?
68:05>> Or two. Jauan Jennings who's down there.
68:07>> third third and Jauan. And so now you've got the biggest-bodied receiver on the team is Mike Evans. And you know, it's
68:14not like he's he's new to this role.
68:16Like this this guy is a touchdown scorer. So I do really like the upside with Evans.
68:21I'm pretty lockstep with you that he he and Davante Adams are more or less interchangeable. Okay, so we're up here.
68:27Chase Brown, Kam Skattebo, JSN, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans and Carnell Tate is at the top of the sidekick. Um Tyson just went. I am slightly Tyson over
68:38Tate, but it's more that I like the Saints situation more than the Titans situation just as an overall. But we'll take Tate here. I don't I don't hate
68:47Tate. I I think you know, I'm Yeah, I you know, it's it's it's it's a slim margin, I think, between Tate and
68:55Tyson. I feel like you guys are really close with them cuz whenever I see one, normally the other one's like right
69:02there, like right next to them. Yeah, we've got them all very close. Pat, uh his underlying prospect modeling preferred Tate a little bit. Um I think
69:12another part of it was just like the uncertainty and ambiguity of Tyson's recovery and and his health. Um you know, when you have like I believe
69:23it was triple knee ligament. Um and and yes, like Tyson came back from that and played a college season after that. So,
69:28it's not like we'd never seen him on the field after that. But then he's got hamstring issues that are so serious
69:33that he misses a pretty major chunk of the season. And then those same hamstring injuries linger long enough to where like the guy's not able to do
69:41anything at the combine and then also not even really able to work out until like a couple days before the draft and even
69:49then like extremely limited fashion.
69:52Doesn't, you know, doesn't do any any like time drills. He's not running the 40 or anything or doing a shuttle, anything like that. It's just like,
69:59"Hey, I'm going to go out here run like 15 routes." And you know, that's I'm going to call it. And then now he's not
70:05participating. It's like, "Man, it's just like a little concerning to me."
70:09And I'm you know, I we let the Sims handle all the the injury risk stuff for guys. Like we don't we don't have anything in there
70:18that says, "Oh, Jordan Tyson's so much more likely to get injured than anyone else." We're not treating him like that.
70:23Um it's just I think that ambiguity played a little bit into Pat's initial prospecting stuff. And so we like Tate just a tiny bit better, which is funny
70:33because like I'm pretty like don't think Cam Ward is very good, you know? Yeah, yeah, I I agree with you on Cam Ward.
70:41I'm not a big fan, but the the the one like redeeming quality there is like the arm talent's sick.
70:47Like if you took someone who doesn't know anything about football and just showed them like Cam Ward's coolest throws, they're like, "Oh, so this guy's
70:54like one of the best quarterbacks in the league right?"
70:57>> like in the weird arm angles and the stuff he does, like it's it's cool. Like Oh, baby. Jalen Hurts falls to 76. I
71:04mean >> That's That's a I was eyeing him and I'm like, man, that'd be sweet if we could get Jalen Hurts to somehow fall to us here. All
71:11right, so we'll take him. He pairs well with uh I think Mike Evans in the week 17.
71:18Yeah.
71:18>> works out.
71:20I like that start. All right. All right, we're we're rolling right here. I like >> here.
71:25I like this team. Uh >> Man, we got we got a bunch of touchdown scores at wide receiver, too. Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Carnell Tate, like
71:31those are some big-bodied boys going up there hauling them >> way, like Carnell Carnell Tate to me, doesn't he seem like a receiver that
71:38like fits the NFL mold better than he would almost like the college in a way?
71:43I know he was still good in college, but even he was dealing with the best prospect you know, next year. So, it's it's not
71:50anything to say, oh, he's the number two. Like, well, he's the number two to a guy that's going to be like the best
71:56prospect >> Yeah, this guy's going to be on the on the level of like Calvin Johnson. It's like I'm I'm so unconcerned about
72:02someone being behind Calvin Johnson, you know? And not many people are There's very few people on the level of Calvin Johnson. So, uh we That's a That's as
72:11high of a praise, in my opinion, as you could probably give a guy. Like, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, um those are like the the top-tier like
72:21freak receivers that we've seen in a really long time.
72:26Um and that kid seems like he's going to be right up there.
72:30I'll be interested to see where he goes next year in the draft cuz it's got to be like top three. Just has to be.
72:36Oh, oh, yeah. I It wouldn't I mean, the the quarterbacks being like it right now, currently, the the quarterback class looking like it should be
72:45relatively strong and there being so many teams that are very much putting themselves in the position where they plan on addressing the quarterback
72:53problem for themselves in the draft next year is the only thing that prevents him from going one over.
73:00>> That's why I said top three because I know the draft is loaded and there's a lot of people waiting for these
73:06quarterbacks that are supposedly coming out after this year. So >> Some some team is going to get team that doesn't need a quarterback is going to
73:14get an absolute steal. A guy who in this draft class he would have gone one over one with a bullet. You know, it would
73:20not have been close. Easily.
73:23Easily. All right, so Justin Herbert just went. I'm a big Justin Herbert fan.
73:27You guys are pretty high on him too. I got him pretty high in my ranks. We like him a lot. We would take so much more of
73:34him if it were not for the market giving us our guy Patrick Mahomes.
73:39>> Patrick Mahomes. here. So Dude dude's out here on the golf course already like hitting balls. What are we doing, you
73:45know? What so what do you are you okay with Pat like obviously the kick's okay with Pat Mahomes like in the spot? We
73:51don't really have I guess we can back stack though. Like all right, let's do it. Cuz I want to get >> mean
73:57the thing is like it's just like at a certain point I don't even care if you're making me take naked Pat Mahomes and like we could
74:06still get Kelsey or we could still get Worthy, right? We actually we like both those guys a a good amount. Um
74:13but it's like man when it's week 17 DFS where is Pat Mahomes going to be as far as QB? Like you're looking at the QB
74:22projections on the slate as you're getting ready to build your lineups.
74:26You really think Pat Mahomes is going to be like what QB 13 or 14 or wherever you got him in this draft? Like I don't
74:32think so, man. Like that's not a thing that's ever really happened before.
74:36The one thing I worry about and I don't know if you you guys are thinking about this too.
74:41I'm sure I'm sure comes off but Pat Mahomes coming off the the ACL and stuff.
74:48Does that hinder him from running? Cuz he ran a lot last year, especially early in the year.
74:55Um he kind of tapered back a little bit, I felt like in the back half, but Does that hurt him a little bit? Cuz that's
75:02got to hurt his fantasy output a little bit.
75:04>> does. And we're we're reflecting that, especially at the start of the season, where we're saying, "Hey man, this hurts not only his ceiling, it's also hurting
75:12his floor." Because that's the way that rushing works for a quarterback. I I feel like I hear so many people say like, "Oh,
75:19rushing for a quarterback isn't a ceiling thing, it's a floor thing." Or, "It's not a floor thing, it's a ceiling thing." It's like, "No, it's it's
75:25literally both of them. It's just taken all the other stuff and just shifting it up by that rushing." Uh All right, so we
75:32get We don't get Brock Purdy, cuz he just went, but we get one of my favorite picks in the hundreds here, Mr. Blake Corum.
75:43Why do we take him here?
75:45>> We do We do like him a lot. We uh We actually were just I'll give you a little little peek behind the curtain.
75:50We were talking the other day um about Blake Corum and like looking at his contingent upside and kind of some similar players we're looking at at the
75:58inputs for him.
76:00And we we get a good amount of Corum. I think we're, you know, not quite double the field on him right now, but we're,
76:06you know, we're overweight on him.
76:08And we looked at him compared to Monangai, and we were like, "Man, we get no Monangai." We're I'm like 1% Monangai
76:16right now, like probably 12% Corum.
76:19Like, "Man, are they really that different?" So, we went in and looked at the underlying inputs, and I think we're just being a little rude to Monangai.
76:27And so, now we've got him a little bit more in line, where we still prefer Corum, because it's like, "Hey, yes, we
76:33think the Bears offense is going to be good, but it's more of a, you know, how how about you show me?" Kind of thing.
76:40Like, there there's going to be some projection we're going to do, but like I know the Rams offense is very likely to be good. And we already
76:48saw Kyren start to take more work last year where it's like we can see that from Monongai, but I think that Kyren is
76:55in the position where if Kyren were to go down or if Kyren were to become less effective, Kyren is a little more likely and
77:04cleaner to step into a higher fantasy value role than Monongai, but we did we did evaluate that recently with our inputs and
77:13found out we were we were being a little rude to Monongai, but I think both of those guys are are interesting, but you
77:19know, gun to my head I do prefer Kyren.
77:22Yeah no it's it's kind of what you said where it's like I want to attack these good offenses when it comes to these running
77:30backs and stuff like that, and Blake Kyren when you look at what they used Kyren and Blake for, like these two guys were
77:37two of the most successful running backs in the league with what they did well.
77:42Like they used Kyren in a lot of zone schemes, and they used Blake Kyren in a lot of man gap schemes, and they from a
77:49rushing success standpoint were two of the best running backs in football.
77:53Literally, go look at rushing success and go look at it from a man gap standpoint for Blake, he was one of the
77:59best in the league. Like literally overall, and Kyren was the same when it came to zone. So, that tells me like the
78:06coach isn't just trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Like he is he is a sharp dude who's not going to force
78:12someone into a scheme that doesn't fit them. He's going to actually have multiple schemes that go well with both guys, and if we ever get the run out and
78:22and we're up right now, I'm going to take Kelse cuz I think it think it fits the bill a little bit
78:28better.
78:29Yeah, I would I would bet these guys are both very very close. I don't think there's a huge difference between Kincaid and Kelse there. But if one goes
78:37down, Zach, the other guy's a league winner.
78:41So, I I want Kyren and Blake. Like I I want I have more Blake cuz of where he's going obviously but
78:48I'm fine with picking Kyren and Blake Corum together. Like that's one running back situation I'm totally okay with cuz Matthew Stafford had the most touchdowns
79:00by far in 5 yd or less in the league. Like not even close. He had 25 of his throwing touchdown or passing touchdowns
79:11were 5 yd or less. Imagine if like you took six of those and and and and spread them out. Give them three to each of them. Like you
79:20know what I mean? Like you start You start pulling back those numbers a little bit or even more, honestly. Like the next guy was at like 14. That's how
79:28much he had to the next guy. It was like an Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams year. I don't know if you remember that year.
79:34Oh, yeah. Aaron Rodgers kept stealing those touchdowns at the goal line, just flicking them to Davante. Like It it it it was like one of those years, but I'm
79:43just sitting there and I'm like yeah, like this this makes sense to me.
79:46Like I could Corum and and Kyren definitely got screwed out of like way more.
79:52Yeah, and I I do agree with you. I prefer to play that through the Corum side because what do you win when you win? Like how
79:59does that break your way in the the biggest benefit that's like man, Corum can totally can crush his ADP so much
80:08harder than Kyren could crush his. Yeah.
80:10>> Um you know, I cuz I think more or less like you you asked me like what's the absolute ceiling outcome for either of
80:18these guys?
80:19I mean, I think the absolute ceiling outcome involves the other one going down, and I think both of them probably score pretty similarly to to one another
80:27there. You know, I don't think there's such a meaningful talent gap to where oh, well, What do you think the ceiling
80:33is if one goes have that.
80:35>> Like how high?
80:37I mean, let me look at what we've got here. I mean, I I think we've got it as it's quite high in the in those
80:43contingency cases. So, the kick is saying Khalil Shakir.
80:48I >> [laughter] >> Khalil Shakir is definitely the toughest click on the board for me. I'm going to go Matthew Golden here. Okay. I think
80:56there's paths to I mean, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson.
81:02I Show me because I've seen them get hurt. I think there's path to Golden being the number two or even number one guy
81:10and I don't know. I think it's more just we haven't seen it and everyone's a little apprehensive because people were picking
81:18them higher last year and had like high hopes for them and he kind of disappointed.
81:23But sometimes it just takes a little bit with these guys and in a situation where the Packers where they had so many
81:30receivers, it wasn't like a need thing to just shove them out there. You know what I mean? Now they're got rid of Romeo and
81:39they got rid of Wix. These are guys that took his role. You know, like those were guys that were you know, kind of in well, Dobs was in
81:49front of them and Wix would steal some work, but they were playing the same position is what I'm saying. Like I
81:54think now with them gone, Matthew Golden's going to see a lot of time on the field and he's the cheapest of the three. So, I don't know. I'll
82:04take the 60 pick this discount even though I love Christian Watson as a player.
82:09I mean, show me for a full season you can stay healthy. You showed me for the back half. Show me again.
82:15Yeah, we're definitely aligned on the fact that the Packers route should consolidate this year.
82:21I think where we differ on the Matthew Golden thing is that when when a guy has a season that unsuccessful
82:31the likelihood of him turning into something good that you're really happy about is just so much lower now.
82:39And so we still have some pretty cool stuff that could happen for him.
82:44Um it's just we think that the bad stuff happens so much that he's a little scary.
82:49All right, so we're up here. Omar Cooper's at the top. Brandin Strange, not really in love with these picks. I don't mind Travis Hunter even though I
82:57feel like I like Stefon Diggs too a little bit here. So I'll I'll tell you a little little secret here. Um you know,
83:04don't don't share this one, but if Pat had his way, we're being pretty conservative on Travis Hunter right now. Um if Pat had
83:13his way, Travis Hunter would be top guy there and with a bullet. Travis Hunter was the top guy a round or two ago. You
83:19know.
83:20>> That's why I picked him cuz I thought out of those guys he's got to be the top guy.
83:23>> really really like, "Hey man, what if this guy does play cornerback and does What if he's the wide receiver four on
83:30the team?" We got a bunch of really crappy outcomes for him. And I think we we talk about it a lot cuz it's
83:38obviously a tricky situation. But if you had the if you asked me right now, I'd say we're probably leaning just a a hair on the
83:46safe side and maybe we could get a little bit more aggressive on Travis Hunter. But I mean, dude, I've got like
83:5250% of him. We slam him already, you know, like Yeah, I mean >> He's been He's been coming up. I do
83:58think part of that is just there's other people drafting with the sidekick and we're We're all We're all trying to find
84:03the guy who did this, you know, we just keep pulling him up. Um but yeah, >> guy though like you can take 10 picks
84:10past ADP like it just like he's just cuz like you said in the range of outcomes where he hits big like he's way better than
84:21even that pick, You know, like >> here's the easiest thing and it's so funny to me because it's like there are
84:26sometimes where it's hard to see the path for a player and so I think that obfuscates the ceiling case for guys and and makes it
84:34hard for the market to figure it out.
84:36But for Travis Hunter, I mean, dude, the ceiling case literally is the game that happened prior to his injury where in
84:43the first half he's like got 20 fantasy points, you know? And then also, you saw Parker Washington take that role over
84:51down, you know, at the end of the season when they no longer had Travis Hunter was the guy they were wanting to use in
84:57that role and then they're like, all right, Parker Washington will do. And so, the ceiling outcome, you know, that guy that you're taking in like the sixth
85:04round, everybody loves Parker Washington now. It's like, hey, what if that's actually the guy that they traded up for to take number two overall, this this
85:11generational prospect and like one of the best football players, you know, we've seen in a decade, like I don't know, man. Kind of seems pretty easy to
85:19see how Travis Hunter could be crazy good.
85:21>> So, I got a question.
85:23You know, cuz you said the Matthew Golden year, not a great year, right?
85:28And it's tough when they have such a down year to kind of come back and stuff like that.
85:33I think what people are seeing with Travis Hunter, they view his year as disappointing.
85:40I think that's one of the reasons why people some people aren't as in.
85:44Even though he got injured, before he got injured, cuz I think and then I'm going to take Keaton, obviously, Keaton.
85:51>> And there you go. Look, he's second guy.
85:52So, we, you know, we're not so different here.
85:54>> Right, right there. Love that. That's what we wanted right there. But I think that might be some some of not the
86:01people that are using the sidekick, but some of the people that aren't in the Travis Hunter that are kind of letting
86:05this fall happen where you can get them at 150 sometimes, it is that maybe they view it as disappointing, even though he got
86:14injured before that. Cuz if you remember, he was kind of slow rolled and and he started to pick it up at the end.
86:21He had that big game right before he got injured where he scored like what? Like 30 DK points or something like that. It
86:27was It was a match like >> He had a a pretty insane amount of targets to him. I'm trying to remember.
86:33I think he had something like 11 targets.
86:35>> overseas game, too. Yes, it was. I I remember waking up early for that showdown slate. And uh and I think that
86:42week prior on uh on stat chasing, we were talking about, "Hey, I I think the Travis Homer breakout's coming." Like And and here's the thing.
86:51The the way that Travis Homer's season started from a scoring fantasy points perspective, I definitely see why it could be
87:01interpreted as disappointing. But like they were trying to have a guy who's involved on both sides of the ball as a
87:10part of their passing game that was so important that they are like scheming it up every week. And it wasn't like, "Hey,
87:16that's the only way we can get the guy the ball." Because then as they expanded that role later, it's like, "Oh, this
87:22guy's earning downfield targets and beating guys." And that's where we started to get the breakout game. And then unfortunately, we get robbed. I I
87:29honestly think I would just say if you're like an anti-Travis Homer person and you're really trying to like wrap your head
87:37around it, just go back and watch the last two games, you know, the the two final games he plays before the injury,
87:44and just pay attention to like, "Okay, how how many routes is he running? He's on the field here." Like where is he at in the target
87:51progression? How's this all shaking out for him? And I think you'll convince yourself. I don't think it's something where someone else needs to make a case
87:57for you. I think it's just like a, "Hey, go back and watch this." And like cuz to me it was pretty evident that we were
88:04watching a young player ascend to where it's like, "Okay, this guy could very easily become the focal point in the offense."
88:12>> And I'm not disagreeing with you there.
88:14I'm just saying I think that's where the hiccup is with some people is I don't think they agree with the Ascension
88:22point that you just made. And I'm not sure if I agree with Ascension, but I agree that they drafted him so
88:31high, they traded so much to get him that they were clearly trying to get him to that point. Or maybe that could be
88:41consistent. Maybe that game, I don't know if that type of game would have been consistent, but like something a little less crazy than that, but still a
88:50lot for Travis Hunter to be involved.
88:54And Parker Washington kind of showed what it could be on a consistent basis.
88:59And that's your take is like, "Hey, he was going to be Parker Washington before Parker Washington who was playing behind him, you know, and only became Parker
89:10Washington when he got hurt."
89:12Yeah, and I think I think your point is a really good and what you're saying about the people who aren't into him is
89:18a really good counterpoint where it's like, "Hey, man, maybe it wasn't an Ascension. Maybe you just happened to observe a really good week for a guy."
89:26Which happens for guys all Anyone remember the JoJuan Jennings 40-burger, you know? Like Hey, good week for him.
89:33>> it. Yeah, players players are allowed to have good weeks.
89:37They don't they don't have to just do that over and over every week. So I can tell you Greg Dulcich won me 60k in
89:42showdown at captain. I mean, players can definitely have good weeks. Yeah. So I Yeah, dude, Evan Evan Engram won me 100k on showdown like and I I can't
89:51stand drafting the guy now. Like You'll never forget [laughter] those guys. I almost did, but you'll never forget those guys that were good
89:58to you that just randomly came off and and gave you a good good week that week.
90:03Those are the those are the good ones right there.
90:05Uh so again, we are back to this tight end uh jam tight ends. We might end We might end up doing five tight ends again
90:13here, Zach. We We did the thing where we kind of waited a little bit. I'll I'll be honest to you.
90:19I draft a lot of Brock Bowers and and Kolton Loveland. Um, so I'm I'm a very pro you know, what? Hero tight end, whatever
90:28you want to call the the builds, right?
90:30Uh uh um, I think on DraftKings too, especially, they're just so just so good to have, like such a weapon um that makes it tough for teams to
90:41contend at the end of the year. Uh, let's let's take Hm, let's take Barner.
90:49We have JSN. Uh >> I Yeah, I bet we'll we'll probably end up with multiple of these guys, so I'm not too picky about which one we take.
90:55>> Yeah, that's what I was thinking, too. I was like, it's kind of like whatever one falls to you and uh you just kind of
91:00take it, and so that's fine, but um Yeah that's >> Yeah, sometimes too, like hypothetically say we got Bowers in this room, one of
91:10the things that I never would have done before the Sims, I would have just been like, "Okay, I got Bowers. I'll get one
91:16other guy to cover his bye week, but like I got [ __ ] Brock Bowers on my team, like who cares?"
91:22And the Sims are just smarter than my brain cuz they're like, "Hey, dude, sometimes you show up in the playoffs and Brock Bowers is literally the only
91:29reason why you're advancing." And so you show up in your week 16 pod and everyone has Brock Bowers, and it's kind of not
91:37chill for Brock Bowers to be your only path at tight end.
91:40>> Yeah.
91:41>> And so we'll get four tight end builds sometimes or or three tight end builds with a couple of these late guys, with a
91:47guy like Bowers or McBride or Loveland, where it's like my brain was locked to the Ah, this guy scores all the points
91:55at tight end, so I don't need these other guys. It's like, "Hey, man, what you actually want is you want those
92:00seasons where Bowers is just going nuclear. You want him to go nuclear in the playoffs and then you want one of
92:07these other late losers you take. You want Cade Otton to be out there and it's like, "Hey, Chris Godwin's injured and
92:13Ted Hurst, you know, is banged up and and so Cade Otton's going to be out here and get 13 targets in week 16 and he's
92:20the thing that drags your Bowers team to the finals when Bowers has a dud game cuz they double cover him all game or
92:26whatever it is, right? And then you're one of the few teams with Bowers in the finals and he's been the man for you all
92:34season. And then it's just like in a DFS tournament where you turn over the cards you're like, "Oh my god, they let me get
92:40this guy at that ownership." And like what a feeling to be in the finals, you know, with a thousand people and you're
92:45one of only, you know, 50 or 60 Bowers teams and there's 3 million up top. Like >> You know, you say that and it makes
92:52total total sense because even when I draft those guys, I'll still end up with like two more tight ends. You know, what
93:01wherever they wherever they come and I'm like, yeah, in my head like I would have never done this a couple years ago. Like I would have
93:08just I would have took Brock Bowers, I would have took one other tight end, I would have called it a day, like you
93:12said. But uh those are the guys, like you said, like these weird guys at the end that can kind of drag the good
93:20players that bring everybody there, like you said, like in a in a world where Brock Bowers smashes, right? We I think he could be like a top five
93:29player in fantasy. Like just overall, like top five player in fantasy um with the skill position guys.
93:36I- in that scenario, there's a lot of Brock Bowers teams in there. So, what is actually advancing you when you get to
93:42those playoff teams and everybody has Brock Bowers?
93:46It's these other guys.
93:48Uh Cade Otton and Eli Stowers.
93:56Um We'll take We'll take Otton here. Let's see if we can push down ours.
94:04Yeah, these are both fun guys. I I mean, Otton probably feels less fun, you know, but I do like for our purposes, like a Cade
94:13Otton guy who's just real lunch pail guy, going to show up every week, get get his snaps in. It's going to be 90%
94:18snap rate plus, you know, like >> And he's going to get a bump if anyone goes down, like he'll get a little bump.
94:24Yeah, I He's kind of He's the the diet Jake Ferguson, how you described it. You know, Jake Ferguson really really comes
94:30to life if CD or Pickens is missing.
94:33Cade Otton's like diet Jake Ferguson. I also thought too, like going into this year, I was like, man, Tampa Bay they would make a lot of sense to bring
94:43in like one of those like solid tight ends, like from the draft. You know what I mean?
94:48Like and they didn't really do anything with that. Like they didn't I don't know if they Did they bring in anybody? Did
94:55they draft Maybe they drafted one rookie. Yeah, sixth round uh Sharp from LSU. That was it though.
95:03>> Okay.
95:04Um I mean, that was it though. At a position that offensively I was like huh, I feel like they could use another
95:13tight end here.
95:14Uh like earlier than that and they didn't do that.
95:20Yeah, I do think they really like and trust Otton. It's the reason that he just has such a high Whenever we do stat
95:27chasing in the season, Cade Otton's always up there with like highest snap rates among all tight ends. So yeah, this guy just doesn't leave the field.
95:35He is a a very professional tight end, you know. Yeah, yeah, he's that type of guy that you you hold your nose when you
95:44click, but like you said, can randomly have that like eight target game where you're like oh yeah, Cade Otton smashed.
95:50That that helped get me to get me the promised land here.
95:54We're almost up here. Cooper Cooper Kupp's at the top of my kick right here.
95:59Hold on.
96:00>> [laughter] >> I'm going to throw up in a second here.
96:03I I got to take Stowers here. I want to get Stowers with uh Stowers is he's definitely the more fun click than Cooper Kupp. I'll agree Yeah.
96:11>> [laughter] >> I agree with you there. And I I Cooper Kupp might still be there, honestly. Let's let's see uh
96:19Let's see what happens here. Maybe not.
96:21Where's the Where's the Sam Darnold team?
96:24Is Sam Darnold Oh, he's Is he behind us? Where is he at?
96:30>> he is. He's on the He's the 12th spot.
96:32Oh, he's the 12th spot. Okay, so he might Let's let's see. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. I feel like if he's
96:38going to go, it's going to be the last >> I don't know. He's he's looking a little sloppy here. He's got Geo Bernard,
96:43Jaylen Nailer, Nick Singleton. He might not be into a old dusty guy like Cooper Kupp, you know.
96:49>> Yeah, he he's into the young bucks, I think. There you go. Zachariah Branch, he's staying He's true to character.
96:56I mean, one more rookie. He might as well just throw just slam the rookie out there.
97:00>> Chris Brazell, you called it.
97:02>> [laughter] >> I I What's funny is I actually I like Chris Brazell the player uh and then I just hated the landing
97:09spot.
97:10>> Yeah, he was one of our most drafted pre-draft. And I I mean >> [snorts] >> it definitely could have been a better
97:16landing spot. Could have been worse. But man, yeah, he he's a fun player. I wish he went somewhere else. He just like
97:22he's not going to be better than Tate.
97:25Coker's good, and Bryce Young is so bad.
97:28He's just so bad. Like I He's one of the guys like I I just don't draft. And the kick never actually tells
97:35me to draft him either, which is nice, so.
97:37>> No, yeah, we we liked him before the draft. We like him less now.
97:42Um I think I've had him pop up occasionally, but yeah, much much lower frequency than we used to.
97:48>> the kick is higher on the running backs anyways. Give me the run Give me the running backs. See, look at that. Dusty
97:53Cooper still falls to us here.
97:57Uh and and >> The Sims are in your head. You knew he was going to come back. See, I I knew it
98:01right there. I knew he was going to come back. Um I don't ever click Cooper Kupp, but since you're on here, I'm going to
98:07click Cooper Kupp and he kind of fits this team here. The I noticed too like a lot of the times the sidekick will still like even if you
98:16don't get like your main stack somehow like like JSN here, the sidekick will still push up those players from like a
98:24a team stacking pers- perspective here.
98:27And I noticed that a lot with a lot of the builds that's just like as much correlation as possible jamming you
98:34know, as many teams as you can even if you're not stacking fully with the quarterback. Well, yeah. So, a big part
98:40of it too is think through like what happens when the market just was wrong on the underlying assumption on a team like how good a
98:50team's going to be or how much they're going to pass or right? So, think through like the Patriots last year.
98:56Drake May was going so late, right? And you get Drake May and unfortunately for the Patriots a lot of the you know,
99:05the passing stuff was spread out. But I mean Hunter Henry was late enough, Diggs was late enough and so May, Henry, Diggs
99:11were all just so fundamentally mispriced because the assumption was ah the offense wasn't very good last year. It's probably not going to be very good this
99:20year. And so, when you get those you know, hey, we just had the wrong assumption about an offense. I like to
99:26think of it through like all the game totals just came out, right? All the sports books are hanging all the game
99:31totals out there and you can see you know, who's who's projected for how many points in a given week. And it's like if
99:37you could fast forward into the future to week eight how would those game totals all the way in week 17 change with what you know by
99:45week eight? And that's kind of why you want to stack all these guys because right now, let's just assume, you know,
99:51the market's saying, "Hey, Seattle, they're probably going to be slightly negative PROE cuz they were last year."
99:57It's like, "Oh, actually, that was a Kubiak thing, man. They are down to chuck the ball around now, and all of a
100:03sudden they're like a positive PROE team, and they end up, you know, adding a couple points to the team total, and
100:09by you having Barner, Cooper Kupp, JSN, it's like, "Hey, actually, we're going to benefit from that because all of these guys are in an environment that
100:19the market wasn't anticipating." The market was saying, "Hey, there's going to be one to two less targets per game than all the for all these guys than
100:25there actually are." And so, that's how the team stack even without the quarterback can be really beneficial.
100:30Interesting. So, we got Dontayvion Wicks at the top of the kick.
100:35I like Dontayvion I had a ton of Dontayvion Wicks previous uh pre-draft or whatever.
100:42I do worry that with the A.J. Brown trade that they're getting another receiver on the way back, but we do have
100:49Hurts, so he kind of fits. So, let's take him here. Uh I saw like Kayshon Boutte could be a guy that uh
100:56comes back there. That does worry me a little bit. Now, the kick is just like, "Hey, dude, your tight end sucks."
101:01>> Finish Finish off with one of these guys. Um there's one tight end that I'm high on that the kick isn't high on. Um
101:10I I kind of like Michael Mayer.
101:12Oh, no way. We That's so funny you say that. We literally, I don't know, a week ago were reviewing Michael Mayer, and
101:19you're like, "I think we're a little too light on him." So, I did I've had him pop up once. He doesn't pop up uh super
101:26often, but like uh I'd say he pops up a touch less than Darnell Washington right now. We were getting a lot of Darnell Washington. We
101:34we came back down to Earth a little bit on him and cooled on him a little bit uh just under the assumption that when he
101:41is on the field now, it's likely going to be with Freiermuth doing the pass-catching stuff from the tight end role. Um and so we we scaled
101:50back a little bit of the, you know, hey, Johnny Smith is gone and so Washington could consolidate some of that. We got a
101:56little less bullish on that. But we did get Mayer up to be a little bit closer to that range. So hopefully you'll see
102:02him every once in a while now. Yeah. I did have him pop up as top guy, but that's that's really funny that that
102:08we're aligned there. He is one that we we do like. Seattle, obviously they get Kubiak in there who was the OC last year
102:16and Seattle was number one in 12 personnel EPA per pass, uh number one as a team, and I think the reason why they decided to not really
102:27draft any wide receivers, which I was kind of shocked about. They didn't and they all they did was go out and get
102:33Jalen Nailer of all people. Like literally like Jalen Nailer is like a wide receiver three, right? Like wide receiver is like he's not a wide
102:40receiver one, okay? And obviously Brock Bowers is wide receiver one, but just in the context, right? Brock Bowers tight end. The wide receivers are not very
102:49good in the Raiders and I think one of the reasons they were okay with just having a bunch of whatever at wide
102:55receiver is I think they view not just Brock Bowers, but I think they view Michael Mayer as a a really good tight
103:03end and I think they're going to play a lot and run a lot out of 12 or even maybe heavier 13 personnel
103:10um and pass a lot out of those heavy uh sets too because they have two really good tight ends. So they can line Brock
103:17Bowers up wherever and have Mayer in line. I think what's going to happen is Mayer's going to play even more this
103:24year. I'm going to click them and keep talking.
103:26>> Yeah, do it. Do it.
103:27>> Um but um that's kind of my take is like the they kind of showed us with all them doing getting Jaylen
103:35Nailor. And they had so much money, remember at free agency? They had all this money to play with and they just
103:40said, "No, we're just going to we're going to go pay Jaylen Nailor."
103:44And that's that's that's about it. Uh and I'm like, that's that's weird. I like the Linderbaum signing for, you know, the team. I think that's a very
103:52sharp move. But I'm just saying like they still had money and they decided to go get other positions.
103:59And so that it kind of tells me they might be confident in Brock and Mayer because I don't know how you can be
104:06confident in the receivers.
104:09Yeah, I know. We we're definitely aligned there. I I like Mayer. I think he's a good football player. He happened to just get extremely unlucky that he
104:18got drafted by the team that then drafted Brock Bowers. Like if if he was on for example, if he happened >> on a lot of teams. I'll tell you that
104:27right now. If he was on if he was on the uh the Texans he's probably already passed Dalton Schultz for the job. You
104:32know, like if he is on uh like if he's on the Bucks, he's giving Cade Otton, who we just said like how
104:39much the team likes and like he's out there every snap, like he's giving Cade Otton a run for his money. Like he is a
104:44talented tight end. He just happened to get really unlucky professionally with with where he landed and his competition. SJ says JSU in college
104:53Mendoza loved his receivers. Would that be a concern? Well, Mendoza had really good receivers from what I know in college. He had really good receivers.
105:00Um and I think Brock Bowers is going to end up being a receiver anyway. He's going to line up a lot as a receiver. So
105:07maybe that could affect the Mayer stuff, but I I think it's more the Kubiak thing. I think Kubiak and what he's
105:13going to be running is going to kind of dictate it more than like, "Oh, Mendoza really likes throwing to the X."
105:21Or the like I I think it's going to be more the Kubiak scheme and Mendoza's going to going to kind of follow it.
105:28Well, it'll be Kirk Cousins probably first and then after like five games they'll be like, "All right, Kirk's washed. Let's let Mendoza run the ship."
105:35And uh but yeah, no, I don't know. Do you take that into account like a quarterback loves receiver and you're like, "Oh, they always throw to the
105:43slot. Like we got to bump the slot guy up." Yeah, in this circumstance I would not be particularly concerned about it because I Brock
105:50Bowers is probably just one of the best pass catchers in the league. Like it doesn't matter what you call him. You
105:56know he like for example, there there are seasons in our sims here like why don't you throw out a a number for
106:06for DK fantasy points Bowers could score in a season that seems crazy to you? And I'll I'll tell you if we got that in the
106:12range of outcomes just so you can can kind of get a sense.
106:15>> Lions Cubs is not happy with me. I swore no one was going to take Mayer with my Raiders team. I'm sorry, man. I'm sorry,
106:23okay? I talked about him for five minutes. I'm sorry. I I can't help it.
106:27I'm a >> [laughter] >> I'm a Mayer stan right here. All right.
106:30Um that that was fun, man. I I like this team. I think I like this team more than the first team here. We had JSN, Chase
106:37Brown, T Higgins, Cam Skattebo, Mike Evans, Carnell Tate, Jalen Hurts, Pat Mahomes, Blake Corum, Travis Kelce, Matthew Golden, Travis Hunter, Keaton
106:48Mitchell, Tajae Spears, AJ Barner, Cade Otton, Eli Stowers, Cooper Kupp, Dontayvion Wicks, and Michael Mayer to
106:57round it out. 82585.
107:00That's two drafts in a row with five tight ends from the kick, but I totally get it with our tight ends cuz they are
107:07gross. Yeah, this is a fun one. We uh we ended up a little thinner at running back where in the other one we had Gibbs
107:13and the big dog to kind of hold us down.
107:15Here we like slide down a tier to Chase Brown and Skattebo, but we end up with some guys at the end that have some
107:23ceiling in Keaton Mitchell, and then you've got Tajae Spears who, you know, hopefully can just like help hold us down if we end up with a dud week from
107:31one of our other guys, maybe he's involved enough that he's putting, you know, 10 points up for us. And he he has
107:36a little bit of contingent upside himself, you know, if Pollard goes down.
107:39So, I think we we did Oh, and we get him stacked with Carnell Tate, as well. Yep.
107:44>> Um and then really, I mean, the thing that supercharges this team and makes it so we're we're not even tripping about
107:50running back at all is the Blake Corum pick where >> Blake Corum, that's If the Blake Corum pick turns into, you know, the absolute
107:56ceiling outcome, it's like, all right, we're we're coasting at running back then.
108:00That's the that's the key is you got to get one of these guys, the Blake Corums, the Keaton Mitchells, Tajae. I mean,
108:06honestly, I think all these guys that we have late, they have some decent outcomes. They don't have the Blake Corum outcome, probably. Blake
108:14Corum has like the ability to be really, really good in a in a few situations, but uh I I think it's uh a
108:22good mix, I'll say, with the with the running backs, the five running backs that we have here. And uh I like the
108:29unique builds. Like I I normally do a lot of three-quarterbacks, so doing two drafts with two is is interesting. And then the five tight ends, obviously,
108:37waiting is is interesting, as well. Jim says he likes my team a little bit more this time, so I can I can win first and
108:45he'll take second. Thanks, Jim. I uh I appreciate that. We'll we'll we'll take first sta- First or second, it doesn't matter on draft. We'll take
108:53either. Survive Survive and advance, baby. That's it. That's all That's all that matters. But uh Zach, man, it was fun. Appreciate you uh
109:00coming on doing this show. I hopefully people enjoyed it here. If you did enjoy it, smash the like button, whether you're watching it over here on the Leg
109:07Up uh YouTube channel here. We appreciate everyone checking this show out. And hopefully, we'll be back uh next week as long as Zach allows me to.
109:17Um you know, I might this might be a one and done show. I don't know. We'll see.
109:22We'll see how I did here.
109:24But hopefully we'll be back again for a little second edition of you know, inputs versus instincts. If you disliked it, you can dislike it. I'm
109:35sorry Christian Watson. I get it.
109:37Michael Mayer, I screwed myself with that one. But appreciate everyone watching here. That was a best ball breakdown here for Zach. I'm JSU. We'll
109:47see you guys next Wednesday. Until then, right here. Peace.
109:56>> [music]
