Angles and Upside Week 3 w/ Rich Hribar

Anthony Richardson's quarterback performance is a concern for fantasy purposes; the source notes Ward from a clean pocket is second worst in EPA per drop back, which constrains offensive efficiency and scoring upside even when the offensive line provides protection.

Cam Ward has the lowest success rate in the league at around 30% (compared to Daniel Jones' league-leading 57%), putting him in his own zone with no other QB close. From a clean pocket, he's second worst in EPA per drop back. Even when the Titans keep him clean, there are concerns about his performance. He's about the same as JJ McCarthy in EPA per drop back, just slightly better than Joe Flacco (worst in EPA). The Titans' offensive line is second worst in pass block grade, third worst in pass block win rate, allowing pressure at the second highest rate. The source compares him to early-career Josh Allen out of Wyoming, reliant on arm strength and making highlight plays while breaking quarterback rules, with a 4% target rate to running backs (lowest in NFL), 57% first read attempt rate, and 8.8 ADOT in an aggressive offense that may not be well-suited to a poor offensive line.

Daniel Jones has posted the highest success rate of any quarterback through two weeks (57%) and is operating efficiently from a clean pocket (33 of 43 passing, 10 yards per attempt, third in NFL, 2 passing TDs). The source is buying him as an immediate fantasy option in Shane Steichen's system, which has a proven track record developing young QBs (Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts) and giving Jones the structural support to succeed. Jones won the starting job decisively because he keeps the offense moving and plays ahead of the sticks—exactly what Steichen designed for. The source projects him as a floor-and-ceiling play similar to Bo Nix's back-half performance last year, with matchup-dependent upside.

Under-the-radar large-field DFS play with 100% route participation in week 2, confirming health after his return. Yards per route run of 0.83 and 17% targets per route run show a modest early return, but the source backs the bet on his prior-year profile to re-emerge as the offense gains efficiency. Positioned as a contrarian play away from chalk tight ends.

David Njoku is a potential volume play against the Packers, who have given up targets to tight ends. However, the Browns face a difficult defensive matchup overall, limiting touchdown equity. Njoku has posted 6.3 and 5.6 average depth of target in his first two games with 65% route participation and 22% targets per route run, making him a floor play rather than an upside option.

Dontayvion Wicks is a superior fantasy play to Golden, earning 26% targets per route run as the Packers' man coverage target. He's been a consistent target earner all three years under Rodgers, hasn't dropped a pass yet this season (only 2 drops on 58 targets as a rookie), and offers a much better floor than Golden despite the narrative around his drop issues.

Drake London received 15 targets in week 1 but saw minimal volume in week 2 due to the Falcons' run-heavy approach (60% run rate). The source advises against panic, noting that target volume fluctuations are scheme-dependent rather than indicative of declining role or health. Early target volume establishes a baseline of opportunity.

Evan Ingram is dealing with a back injury and has been non-existent in the offense so far this season despite preseason expectations. Not a fantasy factor at this point.

Jaden Reed is being removed from the Packers receiving corps due to injury/absence. While Reed had been an explosive option, he was limited by snap count risk—he never plays in one-to-two wide receiver sets and is vulnerable to being scripted out of games, making his absence less impactful than it might appear.

Jonathan Taylor has a prime matchup against Tennessee's dead-last run defense this week. He's third in breakaway yards per game and fifth in rush yards over expected; he's now on the field for 71.8% of passing plays (RB5 on season) with snap share climbing from 71% in week one to 93% in week two, and team rushing attempt share rising from 45% to 78%. He's catching 3 passes per game versus below 2 receptions per game the previous three years—a 50% improvement in receiving volume, moving from a Nick Chubb-like role into a Dalvin Cook/peak Ezekiel Elliott role. He had 218 yards the last time these teams played. The source projects he's 'absolutely going to go nuts' with explosive rushing back upside and high DFS ceiling potential.

Josh Downs had significant involvement in week two with a 35% first read target rate and very traditional first read looks (not RPO or play action). The source likes Downs, has him in best ball, and was pleased to see him come back to life last week. His target share could fluctuate week to week given Michael Pittman's involvement in the RPO role.

Recommended as the most reliable fantasy play for the Packers offense in this matchup despite averaging only 2.5 yards per carry; the Packers continue to lean on the run game as their offensive identity. Against the Browns' elite run defense, Jacobs is projected to see heavy carries (21) but minimal production (59 yards) with touchdown upside coming from other sources, making this a low-upside game for the running back.

Second in tight end participation with historically elite route volume—the source notes tight ends leading the league in routes run have been viable fantasy assets even without elite talent. Johnson's high route volume provides a reliable floor for fantasy production without overthinking the situation.

87% route participation marks a significant year-over-year improvement; Pitts is now an every-route type of guy compared to last year's blocking struggles and system fit concerns. Despite an 11% first-down target rate, he's earning targets at a 21% targets-per-route-run rate and has a strong connection with QB Kirk Cousins. Coordinator Zach Robinson has calibrated the offense to work around Pitts' strengths rather than force him into a role that didn't fit. Ranked as low-end TE1 for the week.

Golden has a weak target connection with Love and limited route participation; at 68% route participation (up from 57% in week one) and just 11% targets per route run, he's an unreliable fantasy play compared to alternatives like Dontayvion Wicks.

Potential target opportunity against the Browns if the Packers are forced into a passing script due to Cleveland's elite run defense; however, Golden is not running all routes and had two plays left on the field last week with 41 air yards on target, making him a tricky bet despite the matchup upside. At 68% route participation (up from 57% in week one) and just 11% targets per route run, the Golden connection with Love isn't there yet.

Michael Pittman is the receiver in the RPO role per charting, which the source believes helps his floor a little bit. His involvement in the RPO role complicates the wide receiver pecking order alongside Josh Downs, whose targets could fluctuate week to week.

Route participation has declined significantly from last season; he was running all routes last year but is now at 75% route participation, indicating reduced offensive involvement and potential target share compression in the Packers passing game.

Fourth-round receiving back currently being boxed out by Jerome Ford but showing 3.08 yards per route run efficiency on a small sample. Viewed as a hold with contingent value, particularly if Judkins goes down; could see a split with Ford, but the receiving role and team's need for playmakers as season progresses provides upside.

Tony Pollard is performing better than expected given the Colts' offensive context; he has a 45% success rate (pretty good) and is running back 20 in rush yards over expected per game, which is solid relative to the quality of the passing game and offense. However, he's tethered to touchdown opportunities since Cam Ward is not throwing to running backs (4% target rate, lowest in NFL). The source is making excuses for Pollard more than for Ward, suggesting he's doing better relative to last year's quality of passing game, though it's uncertain if this is the week he rewards those who keep the faith.

Out for the Packers with a knee injury; reporting has been unclear but the injury appears to be the determining factor for his availability. Before the injury, Craft had posted 14 yards per target on the season and 20.7 yards per target last week against the Commanders with 74 yards after catch, showing strong efficiency as a receiving tight end, but his role in the offense is solid rather than elite.