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Angles and Upside Week 3 w/ Rich Hribar

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

2 hr 57 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 19, 2025

Published

Fri, September 19, 2025

21

Player insights

21

Players mentioned

Topics

Anthony RichardsonCam WardDaniel JonesDarnell MooneyDavid NjokuDontayvion WicksDrake LondonEvan EngramJayden ReedJonathan TaylorJosh DownsJosh JacobsJuwan JohnsonKyle Pitts

Player analysis

Player insights

21

Anthony Richardson

NegativeProjection38:26

Anthony Richardson's quarterback performance is a concern for fantasy purposes; the source notes Ward from a clean pocket is second worst in EPA per drop back, which constrains offensive efficiency and scoring upside even when the offensive line provides protection.

Cam Ward

PositiveProjection36:55

Cam Ward has the lowest success rate in the league at around 30% (compared to Daniel Jones' league-leading 57%), putting him in his own zone with no other QB close. From a clean pocket, he's second worst in EPA per drop back. Even when the Titans keep him clean, there are concerns about his performance. He's about the same as JJ McCarthy in EPA per drop back, just slightly better than Joe Flacco (worst in EPA). The Titans' offensive line is second worst in pass block grade, third worst in pass block win rate, allowing pressure at the second highest rate. The source compares him to early-career Josh Allen out of Wyoming, reliant on arm strength and making highlight plays while breaking quarterback rules, with a 4% target rate to running backs (lowest in NFL), 57% first read attempt rate, and 8.8 ADOT in an aggressive offense that may not be well-suited to a poor offensive line.

Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection28:15

Daniel Jones has posted the highest success rate of any quarterback through two weeks (57%) and is operating efficiently from a clean pocket (33 of 43 passing, 10 yards per attempt, third in NFL, 2 passing TDs). The source is buying him as an immediate fantasy option in Shane Steichen's system, which has a proven track record developing young QBs (Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts) and giving Jones the structural support to succeed. Jones won the starting job decisively because he keeps the offense moving and plays ahead of the sticks—exactly what Steichen designed for. The source projects him as a floor-and-ceiling play similar to Bo Nix's back-half performance last year, with matchup-dependent upside.

Darnell Mooney

PositiveSleeper12:26

Under-the-radar large-field DFS play with 100% route participation in week 2, confirming health after his return. Yards per route run of 0.83 and 17% targets per route run show a modest early return, but the source backs the bet on his prior-year profile to re-emerge as the offense gains efficiency. Positioned as a contrarian play away from chalk tight ends.

David Njoku

NegativeMatchup15:15

David Njoku is a potential volume play against the Packers, who have given up targets to tight ends. However, the Browns face a difficult defensive matchup overall, limiting touchdown equity. Njoku has posted 6.3 and 5.6 average depth of target in his first two games with 65% route participation and 22% targets per route run, making him a floor play rather than an upside option.

Dontayvion Wicks

PositiveUsage27:00

Dontayvion Wicks is a superior fantasy play to Golden, earning 26% targets per route run as the Packers' man coverage target. He's been a consistent target earner all three years under Rodgers, hasn't dropped a pass yet this season (only 2 drops on 58 targets as a rookie), and offers a much better floor than Golden despite the narrative around his drop issues.

Drake London

NegativeUsage13:00

Drake London received 15 targets in week 1 but saw minimal volume in week 2 due to the Falcons' run-heavy approach (60% run rate). The source advises against panic, noting that target volume fluctuations are scheme-dependent rather than indicative of declining role or health. Early target volume establishes a baseline of opportunity.

Evan Engram

NegativeInjury17:05

Evan Ingram is dealing with a back injury and has been non-existent in the offense so far this season despite preseason expectations. Not a fantasy factor at this point.

Jayden Reed

NegativeRole23:22

Jaden Reed is being removed from the Packers receiving corps due to injury/absence. While Reed had been an explosive option, he was limited by snap count risk—he never plays in one-to-two wide receiver sets and is vulnerable to being scripted out of games, making his absence less impactful than it might appear.

Jonathan Taylor

PositiveProjection32:34

Jonathan Taylor has a prime matchup against Tennessee's dead-last run defense this week. He's third in breakaway yards per game and fifth in rush yards over expected; he's now on the field for 71.8% of passing plays (RB5 on season) with snap share climbing from 71% in week one to 93% in week two, and team rushing attempt share rising from 45% to 78%. He's catching 3 passes per game versus below 2 receptions per game the previous three years—a 50% improvement in receiving volume, moving from a Nick Chubb-like role into a Dalvin Cook/peak Ezekiel Elliott role. He had 218 yards the last time these teams played. The source projects he's 'absolutely going to go nuts' with explosive rushing back upside and high DFS ceiling potential.

Josh Downs

PositiveRole42:38

Josh Downs had significant involvement in week two with a 35% first read target rate and very traditional first read looks (not RPO or play action). The source likes Downs, has him in best ball, and was pleased to see him come back to life last week. His target share could fluctuate week to week given Michael Pittman's involvement in the RPO role.

Josh Jacobs

NegativeMatchup22:22

Recommended as the most reliable fantasy play for the Packers offense in this matchup despite averaging only 2.5 yards per carry; the Packers continue to lean on the run game as their offensive identity. Against the Browns' elite run defense, Jacobs is projected to see heavy carries (21) but minimal production (59 yards) with touchdown upside coming from other sources, making this a low-upside game for the running back.

Juwan Johnson

PositiveUsage17:05

Second in tight end participation with historically elite route volume—the source notes tight ends leading the league in routes run have been viable fantasy assets even without elite talent. Johnson's high route volume provides a reliable floor for fantasy production without overthinking the situation.

Kyle Pitts

PositiveRole8:54

87% route participation marks a significant year-over-year improvement; Pitts is now an every-route type of guy compared to last year's blocking struggles and system fit concerns. Despite an 11% first-down target rate, he's earning targets at a 21% targets-per-route-run rate and has a strong connection with QB Kirk Cousins. Coordinator Zach Robinson has calibrated the offense to work around Pitts' strengths rather than force him into a role that didn't fit. Ranked as low-end TE1 for the week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

PositiveUsage25:49

Golden has a weak target connection with Love and limited route participation; at 68% route participation (up from 57% in week one) and just 11% targets per route run, he's an unreliable fantasy play compared to alternatives like Dontayvion Wicks.

Matthew Golden

PositiveMatchup22:42

Potential target opportunity against the Browns if the Packers are forced into a passing script due to Cleveland's elite run defense; however, Golden is not running all routes and had two plays left on the field last week with 41 air yards on target, making him a tricky bet despite the matchup upside. At 68% route participation (up from 57% in week one) and just 11% targets per route run, the Golden connection with Love isn't there yet.

Michael Pittman

NegativeRole43:20

Michael Pittman is the receiver in the RPO role per charting, which the source believes helps his floor a little bit. His involvement in the RPO role complicates the wide receiver pecking order alongside Josh Downs, whose targets could fluctuate week to week.

Romeo Doubs

PositiveUsage22:22

Route participation has declined significantly from last season; he was running all routes last year but is now at 75% route participation, indicating reduced offensive involvement and potential target share compression in the Packers passing game.

Samson Evans

NegativeRole18:28

Fourth-round receiving back currently being boxed out by Jerome Ford but showing 3.08 yards per route run efficiency on a small sample. Viewed as a hold with contingent value, particularly if Judkins goes down; could see a split with Ford, but the receiving role and team's need for playmakers as season progresses provides upside.

Tony Pollard

NegativeProjection41:17

Tony Pollard is performing better than expected given the Colts' offensive context; he has a 45% success rate (pretty good) and is running back 20 in rush yards over expected per game, which is solid relative to the quality of the passing game and offense. However, he's tethered to touchdown opportunities since Cam Ward is not throwing to running backs (4% target rate, lowest in NFL). The source is making excuses for Pollard more than for Ward, suggesting he's doing better relative to last year's quality of passing game, though it's uncertain if this is the week he rewards those who keep the faith.

Tucker Kraft

PositiveInjury21:22

Out for the Packers with a knee injury; reporting has been unclear but the injury appears to be the determining factor for his availability. Before the injury, Craft had posted 14 yards per target on the season and 20.7 yards per target last week against the Commanders with 74 yards after catch, showing strong efficiency as a receiving tight end, but his role in the offense is solid rather than elite.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,854

0:01Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Patrain.

0:05Come follow all of my content at legendaryupsside.com. With me today, Rich Rebar, Lord Reeves. We're going to be talking through the week three slate

0:14uh as part of our angles and upside podcast. Reeves, how's it going?

0:18>> It's going good, man. Week two was a little bit better, not just as a player, but uh as you know, the NFL. The NFL was

0:25a little bit better.

0:26>> NFL was a little bit better. But yeah, that's that's what we care about, you know, because even we always talk about

0:30as fantasy analysts, like sometimes we have takes and people always ask me sometimes like, "Well, you wrote up this player as you weren't on him in the off

0:38season and like now he's good like and you're like happy about it." And I was like, "Well, yeah." I was like, "Because

0:42fantasy football's better as many we want as many good players as possible, >> like you know, and and last week seeing

0:49some actual points scored and fantasy points scored even though I didn't get all of them. Like I was happy that there

0:54was just points to be scored out in the universe.

0:57100%. And like uh Bejian Robinson's the cover boy of the walkthrough this week.

1:01We'll get to that game here in a second.

1:04I would ultimately my legendary running back article I was like ah I'm going to take Gibbs. You know, I'm taking Gibbs

1:09and I'm uh I'm not taking Bean as the running back one. I'd rather take CD.

1:14I'm taking Chase. So I guess I guess I'm fading Bejian. And then Bejian's awesome. And I'm like, "Well, that was dumb." But uh I'm glad Bejon's awesome.

1:23That it's more fun with an awesome Bejon. and you know, they're they're using him as a receiver in a in a really

1:29fun way. So, um getting getting to that game, uh this this matchup really jumped out to me, you know, and it's it's not

1:39exactly under the radar that the the Panthers defense is not good. It's not good in in pass defense or run defense.

1:48I think Penn should be able to kind of keep things on the rails here pretty nicely. Part of that is going to be

1:53throwing to Bejian Robinson, though. uh who's up from a 14% target share last year to 20% this year. He's at 2.31

2:01yards per out run. So, the receiving role is really, really nice. He has lost some carries to Tyler Algier getting some of that short yardage stuff and uh

2:11being, you know, used as kind of a uh like a fourth quarter closer type of type of guy. But Robinson's receiving

2:18role is so damn good. Like even with losing some of that work to Algae over the the last two weeks, he's at 20.2. 2

2:25expected points per game in in PFF's expected points model. Um, this is a game where you could also see the Panthers just as they've done kind of

2:35air it out. You know, they're behind and they just they just start passing because they don't really they can't really do anything else. And maybe that

2:41kind of keeps this game a little bit more of a luminous than the one we just saw in Minnesota where they had uh the

2:47Falcons had just a 40% pass rate. So, I actually think Bejian is better off if there's a little bit of passing here and

2:54the matchup is so juicy on on both the run and the pass side of it for the Falcons. Just kind of a classic spot

3:01where I could see him being, you know, a three down workhorse and ripping off big plays in a good matchup.

3:07>> Yeah, we need the Carolina side here to give us a little push. They've just been so anemic uh from where they left off

3:15last year. Remember last year they were were putting up a fight. Obviously they had the shootout with the Falcons, but like remember they took the the Chiefs

3:24to overtime. They almost beat the Eagles. Like if Xavier Legette catches that pass against the Eagles, like they were in games that they shouldn't have

3:30been in, right, either. And it's like, man, like the fighting analysis, like this is what brought Bryce Young back because statistically he wasn't like

3:36still electric half the year, but they were like playing competitive games and punching up and that's what kind of gave people this hope. But now this year

3:44they've come out so bad in the first half of these. They've been outscored 40 to6 in the first half of these opening

3:50two games and it's just kind of put them in these jailbreak game scripts in the second half and it's also put their

3:56opponents into these situations where they're just not doing anything in the second half right of either game. And that's what that's what's kind of why we

4:05want some push back from them. And we saw that Atlanta do this last week. They had a 44% dropback rate last week. It

4:11was 31st. And last year when these two teams played, they only had a 51.9% drop back rate. Uh, and then it was going

4:18back to the game, Michael Penn's first start against the Giants last year when they played at the lead. They also were

4:24very just runheavy. And Zack Robinson comes from Shawn McVey and Shawn McVey would do this sometimes when they were up ahead. So, we do need some push from

4:32the Carolina side to just keep the tempo because you're right, like this is just a matchup. We want to attack with all

4:37the core Falcons pieces. We just need Carolina to just give us something something more than they've given us these first two weeks.

4:45>> So, if you look at the Falcons defense, it looks really really strong through two weeks. They're they're second in passing DVOA. They're fifth in e pill or

4:52drop back. their second and drop back success rate against um but uh looking at the I was actually listening to to

5:01Ali Connelly break down the the way that the Falcons looked against the Vikings and he was like pretty unimpressed with their coverage pointing out coverage

5:11breakdowns pointing out that uh Kevin Oonnell seemed to correctly be attacking Billy Bowman the rookie nickel quarterback but basically JJ McCarthy

5:20just failed. was his read that this was actually a defense that should have gotten exposed in a pretty big way last

5:28week going up against a really good offensive mind in uh Kevin Okonnell, but but maybe a guy who's not really ready

5:35yet in JJ McCarthy. Uh we don't it doesn't look like this is a defense that exploitable, but we can count on the Panthers to have

5:46volume. I think they had an 80% pass rate last week. So, if this if there's opportunities here in the passing game,

5:52I think the Panthers could find them.

5:54Maybe they don't find them until, you know, 5 minutes left in the third quarter until the end of the game. We We

5:59had a nice little 20 minutes. But, uh, yeah, I mean, it's it's like we do I mean, the Panthers are frustrating

6:07because they probably are going to get down and then they're going to be passing a ton. And does that push the

6:11Falcons? Are the Falcons feel comfortable enough to just kind of, you know, we can kind of run our game and and let the clock run out? But I think

6:17there's there is potential for them to push uh the Falcons here, especially if the Falcons defense isn't as tough as it

6:24looks through two weeks. I think it's improved from last year for sure. But, you know, I I don't think they're like a

6:28top five defense, which is how the numbers have it right now.

6:31>> And they aren't going to have AJ Terrell in this game as well, which kind of opened some things up, you would hope,

6:36on the back end, uh to attack some more of their younger quarterbacks there and younger defensive backs have to play, too. You know, Xavier Watts is also

6:43playing a lot of snaps for them on the back end. And hopefully this is a good spot for T kind of really cash in. T's

6:49like the and he did get a 100 yards last week, but he's like the like through two weeks he's like the almost, right? Like

6:56it's the hand uh horseshoes and hand grenades like lines for him. Like he's just he makes these plays that you're like, "Oh my god, that was such a sick

7:02play." And you're like, "Yeah, it didn't count."

7:04>> Like he had another one of those last week, like a one-handed catch on the sideline. You're like, "Oh my god, I

7:08didn't I can't I've never seen a human do that." And you're like, "Oh yeah, well I don't get points for that." Like

7:12cool.

7:14like that was really cool. But uh yeah, and they're they're going to be missing two offensive linemen, too. So, there's some injury kind of impact on this game.

7:21And it's kind of an epidemic right now with the NFL. Like, no one's really talking about it. Uh I had a couple

7:26charts on this the last couple years about like offensive line continuity.

7:29But since the NFL's gone to like these extended games, uh the 17 game schedule, just like these offensive lineman injuries are starting to really stack up

7:36across the league and we've got a number of offensive linemen like out again this week and they've already made an imprint

7:41on the start of the season some offenses. Um it's hard to like quantify them because it's like a one of five or

7:46a two of five, right? But we know that offensive lines can be like a >> a weak link like uh unit. Like if you

7:54have an offensive if you have a like four great offensive linemen and one bad offensive lineman it could make the other four guys look worse

8:01>> and >> 100 percent because I mean the at pass rush is a strong link system where if you have like the Parsons

8:06>> Yeah.

8:07>> Miles Garrett like you got Miles Garrett like cool >> it's nice to have other pass rushers too but like >> you don't need them necessarily you know

8:16>> so and then you know you're going up against a weak tackle you you know you get you make sure you Yeah. So, uh,

8:23offensive line injuries, especially when they start to stack up. We'll we'll get to the Bucks, but they're going to be without both tackles, which is which is

8:29obviously not not great.

8:31>> Tackle guard, maybe two guards, but let me ask you, uh, this game because I think most mostly people are going to

8:35play this game pretty straight up uh, as as expected. You know, Bejian's in a good spot. Maybe you even take a flyer

8:41that Tyler Alier stacks, you know, some opportunities and get the chance to get in the box. You go back to London and

8:47the volume. Uh, you've got Tet that people are gonna just play uh because we know that the opportunity has been there. What do What do you make of these

8:54first two weeks of Kyle Pittz so far?

8:58>> I like the usage. I mean, he's been out there so much more. Um, I wrote up last year. I haven't looked into the play

9:04action stuff, but I I look over the the offseason, I look into the play action participation uh ratios for the the

9:11tight ends, looking at their route participation on play action drop backs compared to the rout participation overall because it gives you a sense of

9:16like are these dudes >> big receivers in a bad way. Like they they pull them off the field on on run

9:22plays and then they're not out there for play action, which is a big deal for tight ends where we see, you know, we

9:27see the backup tight ends score touchdowns. Uh what was it? Who was the tight end who scored last night? And then uh

9:34>> Oh, Jackson Hos. Yeah.

9:36>> Yeah. And then and uh they're like, you know, our good friend uh uh Chrisworth has has this guy's the best tight end in

9:44the league over at BFF.

9:47That's not that's not an advertisement for PFF, man. Don't don't do them like that.

9:53>> Played seven snaps.

9:55>> Yeah. Got to set the snap minimum, man.

9:59Um but but yeah, I mean you see that stuff all the time and then you don't want you don't want these tight ends

10:05getting pulled for those types of runs.

10:07But when you have 87% route participation as Kyle Pittz does, that's where you start to to not have to worry about that so much. He's he's like an

10:14every every route type of guy right now, which is awesome. So, um I I would say my note of caution would be he has an

10:2211% first street target rate, >> which would indicate maybe he's not a huge part of the game plan, but he's got

10:29a 21% targets per outr run. So, he's earning targets. He's got a connection with PennX and he's running all the routes and this is a good matchup for

10:37Penn to be efficient even if there's not much volume. So, yeah, I think he's he's definitely in play and I had him as a

10:43low-end tight end one in the rankings this week.

10:45>> Yeah, that's kind of where I had him too. I uh I wrote him up as one of my tight end uh DFS plays too, just for the

10:51price point. I had him as four, not at the top because like just cuz he's a pivot off of uh Joan Johnson and Jake Ferguson who are

11:01like basically the same price.

11:03>> So it was like if you do want to kind of get away from these two maybe popular tight ends, >> um maybe Kyle Pittz is is a guy that we

11:10can luck box into maybe a vertical play.

11:12But like you I mean he it's just the fact that he's on the field this year compared to last year >> because you know he couldn't block last

11:19year and he felt lost in the system and it didn't feel like a system fit and then he was part of like trade talks

11:24this offseason and it was like man maybe Zach Robinson just kind of like this guy he went to the front office was like

11:29this guy just doesn't work with what I do and it's positive to see a coordinator maybe work around that and say like maybe this isn't the perfect

11:36tight end for what I want to do or what I want my tight ends to do but I can find a way to kind of marriage some of

11:41the stuff that he could do well with the things I want to do. And it feels like that's happening. And Zach Robinson's

11:46been a guy through a year and just a couple game sample that I'm pretty high on because he's doing he always feels

11:51like he's always changing stuff. And that's what I like to see coordinators do is like, hey, this isn't working or I

11:57have to work around this. Like the Kurt Cousin stuff at the beginning last year when it was clear like dude this guy

12:01can't get can't move.

12:02>> Like what do we do to work around this?

12:04And Zach Robinson calibrated that and then started to work around you know uh you know getting Pennix when he took over last year. experience like he was

12:11constantly calibrating and I like that.

12:13I like my guys to tinker.

12:16>> Yeah. No, I I like that too. I I'll also note um Neil Orfield on the DFS pod we do um shouted out Darnell Mooney here as

12:26a kind of under the radar more large field play and I'll I'll piggy back on that. Um where he you want to talk about

12:33routes, he logged 100% route participation last week which I I think tells you he's healthy. uh yards per outr run just 0.83

12:4217% targets per out run. Uh so not exactly, you know, roaring back in his return, but he was good last year. The

12:50offense would be efficient and if he's able to run all the routes like that, you know, you can kind of bet on last

12:54year's profile to shine through a little bit in this spot under the radar play.

12:58Uh I think is kind of interesting.

13:00>> Yeah. And I don't think anyone should be panicking yet on Drake London. I've seen some panic in the streets out there.

13:04there. I mean, he had 15 targets in week one and then they just didn't throw in week two.

13:09>> Yeah, they literally didn't throw. They ran 60% of the time. Like, come on. You know, um God, I really hope really hope the

13:18Panthers can at least keep things a little lively. Uh I don't know if the Browns will be able to keep things

13:23lively. they're going against like you want to talk about offensive line injuries. Uh and then going up against Micah Parsons, like it's it's a rough

13:32rough spot for the Browns here. Uh looks like they're going to like like I was breaking down their offensive line stuff

13:39and it's it's rough. And then they're going to be out a guard. Uh Bonio's going to be out for this it looks like.

13:46So >> um and he's the bright spot like you like you're like, "Oh man, Dwan Jones looks like a liability. He's 61st in

13:53pass pass block grade right now. He's terrible as a run blocker. He's dead last there. Um it's like, oh well, Ponio's played well. He's out.

14:02>> And then you got Parsons who's ramping up. Uh he he saw 30 snaps in week one.

14:07He was at 47 last week, which is the most among Packers edges. Um obviously he's a superstar, but they're they're getting rush from the inside as well.

14:15Their their coverage looks really awesome. Um, and so yeah, I mean they they their two DT tackles are both ranking well as pass rushers. This is

14:26just a like kind of an insane defense to have to go up against um if if you're like the Browns at full strength and

14:33they're not at full strength.

14:36>> Yeah. with Parsons on the field this season and keep in context like they faced Jared Goff and the Lions in week

14:43one and Jayen Daniels and the Commanders in week two like not exactly like pushover offenses either but with Parsons on the field passers have

14:52completed 58.8% of their passes 4.5 yards per pass attempt and a 68.4 four rating. Like it's just And now they get

15:02Joe Flacco and the Browns. Like it just feels like such a spot where it's gonna be just, you know, trying to ski uphill

15:09for the Browns. Like it's just like it's just real tough, right? Like it's it's really hard to have any promise for any

15:16of these guys, right? Like you could say like, "Yeah, hey Fannon and Injoku maybe the the little bit they've been giving

15:22up to Packers that is the tight ends.

15:25And if you want to play those guys for some volume plays, you still can for some floor, especially at the tight end

15:30position. But like, is there any touchdown equity to be had this week for anyone here? And it's just really hard to talk herself into like an upside play

15:37for one of the Browns. Uh Fannon actually has some like positive splits that like extend for that because the Packers do play like so much zone under

15:45Jeff Hley. Uh he does have a team high 25% target rate per outr run against zone coverage. So, if you are still

15:51going back to him at like a cheapy on DraftKings or you're just playing him in like the tight end premium stuff, like I

15:56still think he can get by for as a as a floor play.

16:00>> Yeah, I think Fannon is a decent play.

16:03He's got 6.3 AOT and a 5.6 AOT in his first two games. He's going to get more of those underneath targets. They they

16:10move him around the formation. Kind of like more quick hitting stuff. He's still he's been at 65% route participation in both games. So you do

16:17need that high targets per out run to come through which he's had so far. Uh he's had a 22% targets per out run and

16:23joke is at just 13%. So you are getting that but you need it. You know he can't just like be out there as like a normal

16:30player. He has to be someone that that they're like clearly looking to prioritize. It just it makes a lot of sense for them to do that. And so I

16:37think he's in play as kind of that GP or late I would even say like a low-end tight end one in in reddraft where you

16:43know you might not have a better option.

16:45Maybe you can pick up Luke Musgrave, but >> we keep losing dudes. We keep losing tight ends.

16:51>> Yeah, tight end's always deep in in the summer and then immediately it's like, well, there's there's four guys and somehow I'm not sure Powers is one of

16:59them until until he's healthy.

17:02>> Tyler Horn and >> and McBride.

17:05>> And we have and the guys like people were counting on like Evan Ingram and TJ Hawinson just like they they're like

17:12they've been non-existent so far.

17:15Yeah, Evan Ingram is just I mean I know he's dealing with a back injury, but it's just like not a thing.

17:21>> Yeah, he's and yeah, he's just not a part of the offense at this point right now, but it's it's rough out there. At

17:25least we got uh our one true king, Jawan Johnson, on the board.

17:29>> We do, man. Second in participation. Oh, I mean, and like so historically like whatever tight ends just led the league

17:38in routes run even if they're not talented like because we've had some over last year Powers was also a good talented player led the league in routes

17:45run. So if you get that marriage, but like there was a year Evan Ingram led the league in routes one run at tight

17:50end and that was his best year's fantasy, right? We had a T.J. Hawinson year, the year he got traded from Detroit to Minnesota from that point on.

17:57>> Yeah.

17:58>> And it's like you could he can even have a lesser talent, but if you're just a tight end and you're running that many

18:01routes, odds are you're going to be viable for fantasy.

18:04>> Like Austin Hooper ran a bunch of routes in in the Falcon Atlanta. Yeah. Yeah.

18:09And it's like And then Hayden Hurst came into that role and was worse, but like still kind of usable.

18:13>> Yeah. Yeah. So, if you're just out there running that many routes as Jan Johnson's getting, like there's no reason to really overthink it.

18:20>> 100%. 100%. Um, >> what about the Browns backfield? Uh, big picture, just people might be curious to hear like, uh, you know, your take on,

18:28you know, Judkins being on the field, Samson still kind of being boxed out by Jerome Ford for right now. Like, how are

18:34you thinking big picture about the Browns backfield?

18:39My take has always been that they drafted Judkins in the second round because they want him to be their clear lead runner and that, you know, they

18:48they end up getting Samson um in the third, right? Or the fourth and >> yeah, fourth, >> you know, fourth. And so he's he's more

18:55of like, >> you know, like a solid value pick there and and looking like he's going to be used more as the receiving back at some

19:03point. Um, but Judkins was like, I think a core piece of their identity this year. Like that's the they want to be

19:11able to run the ball and he is like I think a pretty talented runner. Um, I have a bunch of him in best ball which

19:19was obviously kind of scary, but uh, you know, once he got super cheap, I was like, what? Like what am I doing? I'm

19:25taking like Jaden Blue over this guy.

19:26Give me Judkins. Um, so yeah, I think I think Judkins is going to take control of this backfield and be like the clear

19:33the clear lead back here. Uh he ran well in his first game. Um this is obviously a hellish matchup.

19:39>> What are you doing with Samson if you have him in reddraft? Obviously he had kind of the maybe the fortunate run in

19:46week one where like he he kind of had like the the PPR scam a little bit because he only ran 15 routes. Um and

19:52then he gets the late touchdown last week. So some gamers probably started him. They were like, "Well, I'll get one more week out of him before Judkins does

19:59stuff." And you do get the late touchdown. at least gave you something to latch on to where they were points.

20:05But I mean, is he a hold? Like are you like especially like these shorter bench leagues? Like what are you doing with

20:10him?

20:11>> I think he's old. I mean, his his receiving stuff has been his his efficiency. He's still at 3.08 yards per

20:18route run. It's a small sample, but like >> he's been he's been fun when he's out there. Um it's a team that like will be

20:25looking for playmakers as the season goes on. This isn't like some playoff team where they like at some point they're going to hey what what do we

20:33have here in Samson? Uh so I think I think he's a hold and you have contingent value to an extent. It would

20:39be a split with him and Ford as we saw in week one, but uh you know that split could favor him if like Judkins goes

20:46down in in week six or something. Maybe at that point Samson takes on a bigger role. So yeah, I think he's like a like

20:52a satellite back spot starter contingent value hold guy or like something like the the main event like Yeah, like like clear hold with shallower benches, you

21:01know, it gets a little tighter, but uh someone I'd be trying to hang on to if I could if I had it was like him versus

21:08like, you know, like uh I was gonna say Scataboo, that's that's extremely obvious, but like a Bashaw Tootin or something like give me Tootin all day.

21:15Um but >> yeah. Yeah.

21:17>> But, you know, if you those in like in like the main event, that's not the decision.

21:22>> No. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No. No. We're trying to trying to hold out all those all those running backs. Uh, hang on.

21:28>> Yeah. Um, on the Packers side, we're going to be without Tucker Craft. It looks like the reporting on that it's

21:36been kind of all over the place. It's hard to figure out. Uh, but it looks it probably Musgrave here. Uh, I wrote it

21:42up as Craft was was playing when I wrote this because the the knee injury was was reportedly minor at the time.

21:49>> Historically, the Packers have historically been cautious with player injuries, too. And they're seven and a half point favorites. I would assume

21:55that they're not gonna >> Yeah, I I I would like when I wrote up Craft though, I was he has a 14 yards

22:04per target. So, a lot of what his like he was crushing as a Yak player against the Commanders. had 74 yards after catch

22:11with a 20.7 yards per target last week.

22:14His role in the offense isn't like super super strong. It's good, but it's not super super strong. So, >> well, no one's is, right? Like as a

22:21pass.

22:22>> No one's is.

22:23>> Yeah. Like there's all time wide receivers.

22:26>> Uh last year Romeo Dobs was at least running all the routes. He's at 75% route participation now. Um Golden's at

22:3563. Wix was at 63 last week. uh 65 last week, but you know, same difference. And they're like prioritizing Wix as the

22:43target guy last last week. I don't know.

22:47It's probably Josh Jacobs, right? Just play Josh Jacobs.

22:50>> Well, that's what I think makes this matchup kind of curious if you're trying to do something from the Packers side

22:54because the Packers historically have always been a team that are tough to play like from a DFS stance because you can't stack Jordan Love because they

23:01just play all the dudes. It's like Josh Allen. Like it's like always trying to stack Josh Allen, right? Like there are

23:05spots like you want to do it that but you're like well I don't know if Coleman's gonna score a touchdown or

23:11Shakir's gonna score a touchdown or Elijah Moore is gonna get involved. Like that's how love's always been. Like we know Dos is like a touchdown or bust guy

23:19even when he's playing all the snaps because they trust him in the run game.

23:22Uh Jaden Reed would come in and like be an explosive guy but like he's always he's never playing in one to two wide

23:27receiver sets and you worried about him getting scripted out of the game. Uh, and but now we're removing Jaden Reed and we're potentially moving Tucker

23:34Craft. Is there anything here with like this getting kind of pushed in against the Browns defense because that's what I think this match up particularly makes

23:42interesting is because the Browns run defense has been so amazing to start the year. Like they pushed the Ravens out to

23:48give up on the run. The Ravens were like screw this.

23:50>> They were like screw this, we're not even trying. Malif's like never really done that. like they've been kind of like, "Hey, we know Josh Jacobs is only

23:57getting two and a half yards for carry, but we're going to keep doing this because this is what we do." But I

24:02wonder if the Browns run defense is just like that. Like Mason Graham has been so incredible these opening two games and

24:08if like anytime they push just the the Ravens to say like we're not even going to try to run anymore. Like could this

24:13be more of an uptick passing game?

24:15Because the one other thing about it is if it is a more of a passing script for the the Packers and maybe the implied

24:22line leads uh due to the matchup. The Browns play aggressive and they play a lot of man coverage which is historically like in the Shanahan system

24:31like this is what they want you to do.

24:32Like we're going to exploit that. That's what uh they did to Dan Quinn on Thursday night. Uh Jordan Love's the second highest blitz quarterback in the

24:40NFL this year. I think you and I talked about this last week. The Lions blitzed his face off in week one. Yeah. and then

24:44they didn't throw. It's like he's the second he faced the second highest blitz rate. Only Daniel Jones has faced a higher blitz rate. And against the

24:49Blitz, he's 16 to 23, just under 12 yards per pass attempt uh with three touchdowns. Um all of his all of his

24:58passing touchdowns this season have come against man coverage. And it's like, man, if we get more of a condensed target tree, maybe they have to throw

25:04more just because the Browns run defense, maybe is this legit. Like could this be a spot now we could attack maybe

25:11with like an Adontavian Wix or get the Matthew Golden flop lag here finally >> maybe. But I think the one thing with

25:18the Browns, right, obviously they've got the pass rush. So, you know, they don't blitz. It's not like they're they're 27th in blitz rate. So, I think this

25:28could be they might have the formula to to deal with love where they can actually get to him with four. And, you

25:35know, their their coverage has been okay. Um, and you know, I think Love will be fine here, but I it's it could

25:43be a matchup where the Packers aren't just doing that well on offense because this this defense is is really good at

25:49stopping the run as as you laid out, but they also have an awesome pass rush. Uh, and then their down craft. The Golden

25:56Connection isn't there yet. I think Golden is kind of a tricky bet here. I mean, he had a he had a 41 AOT last he

26:04had the two the two plays left on the field last week.

26:06>> Yeah, I know. I mean, right, it could have been awesome, but like he's not running he's not running all the routes.

26:1268% route participation last week was up from 57% in week one. Uh his his targets per out run is is just not impressive

26:20right now at 11%. Um Dantavian Wixs comes in and he has a 26% targets per out run. So just like >> Yeah, he's their man coverage guy. He

26:30like always has been too for like this is three years running where because you know everyone talks about the one year

26:35he where he dropped the passes last year >> but he still like you don't drop you don't have a chance to drop passes if

26:41they don't throw you the football >> and like that's true he's been he's been consist he's been a consistent target earner all three years

26:49>> um he's been targeted for his career on 33% of his routes against man coverage like he gets open um and he hasn't

26:57dropped a pass yet this year he didn't drop any he only dropped two of 58 targets is rookie. Like what if he just

27:01doesn't drop passes again? I know it's a joke because we had that sample. Like he recovered that onside kick on Thursday

27:06and every tweet was like Davian Wix is on the hands team. Like like you know it's like it's like well yeah like the D

27:15like he had one bad year at drops. Like are we going to pen like penalize this dude? Like and again you don't get to

27:20drop passes unless you're that you get thrown to.

27:24>> No I I agree. Like I would if you made me play Golden or Wix, I would play Wix.

27:31I I do think he's a better play than than Matthew Golden right now. You're getting like the same routes and he

27:35actually got targeted. Golden >> Well, the floor is better. Yeah, the floor is probably a lot better.

27:40>> It's way better. It's way better. It's not someone I'm looking to play, but yeah, that that is what I would do. Um

27:47>> yeah, this is going to be a total game where like Jacobs has like 21 carries for 59 yards and someone has three

27:53touchdowns. 100% 100%.

27:57Just Just settle in.

28:00This one's not When we talk about football being better, we don't mean this game.

28:07Uh let's let's go to the Colts of Titans. Uh Daniel Jones, man, he's been good now for two straight weeks. Uh

28:15through two through two weeks, Daniel Jones has the highest success rate of any quarterback. Uh just like we uh just like we all thought it would play out.

28:24>> Yeah, I I mean I'm in by the way. Like I I've seen a lot of stuff like people saying this is gonna be Derek Carr from

28:30last year. I don't think so. Well, first of all, the Derek Carr stuff like all the Saints died last year. Like they all

28:36got hurt, right?

28:37>> So like factor that in as well. But I just think proof of proof of what we have from Shane Stikken like over the

28:43course of his career, what he did for a young Justin Herbert when he was with the Chargers, what he did with Jaylen

28:47Herz in Philadelphia, and what he's tried to do in Indianapolis, like I just still want to just buy in because if

28:55you're going to hold Daniel Jones's hand, like this is the spot to do it.

28:58Like we seen Brian Dball two years ago do this with Daniel Jones and that was like throwing to like Ricky James and

29:03Isaiah Hajins. Like now when you look at the Colts, like the offensive line's not nearly as good as it was three years

29:09ago, but it's still solid. You've got Michael Pitman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Adai Mitchell, and Tyler Warren. And you have Jonathan Taylor. Like to me, like I

29:18don't want to like I don't want to like overthink this though either. Like I I think it's a good spot for a

29:22quarterback. He's in the good hands of a good coordinator. And the thing that just killed Anthony Richardson was he couldn't hit the freebies that was D

29:31that were like Syiken was giving him.

29:32like he never he got no layups. He he was botching the layups. And that's what I think frustrated Stiken. That's why I

29:38don't think he ever really had a chance to win the job is because Stiken never believed he was going to take what was

29:43structurally there. Daniel Jones is never going to make a 65 yard throw off his back foot to Alec Pierce like like

29:48Anthony Richardson could three or four times a year. But we care about keeping the offense moving and playing ahead of the sticks. And like that's why Daniel

29:57Jones won this job and why it probably wasn't a competition. Um, he's been incredible under pressure. He's been incredible getting his face blitzed off.

30:05And he's been awesome without no pressure, which is like the sticky stuff, right? It's like, how are you operating when there's no pressure? And

30:13from a clean pocket through two weeks, he's 33 of 43 passing, 10 yards per pass attempt at sec uh third in the NFL, two

30:19passing touchdowns. Granted, we probably won't get a one-yard rushing touchdown every week, but right, I'm I I'm buying him as kind of an immediate guy you just

30:27ride the wave with and he's probably going to be I think at least what like last year Bo Knicks was, >> right? Like I think there's I think

30:34there's floor here and then you take advantage of some matchups and have some ceilings, but I think very much like a

30:39one to one where I'm treating him is kind of where we were with Bo Knicks the back half last year.

30:45>> Yeah. I mean, he's So, the way I wrote it up in the walkthrough, I was like after week one, I was like, "Play

30:50somebody, dude. I'm not convinced." But he did. He just he just played. Now, maybe they shouldn't have won that game because of that stupid penalty, but you

30:58know, they did. They They just beat the Broncos. Um he's And like >> the way Daniel Jones is succeeding is how he keeps this job. This is exactly

31:08what Stiken was hoping for with the high success rate stuff. You look at his first read attempts, he's got uh he's

31:14throwing a first read on 68% of his dropbacks, which you know, he's out there trying to execute the system.

31:21>> He's completing his first reads. He has a first read completion on 52% of his drop backs, which is very high. So, he

31:28he is doing the Shane Stiken offense.

31:30They're running play action at a super high rate. Um it's it's all like Stiken's got to be so happy right now.

31:37This is exactly what he was hoping someone could come in and do. The one thing I would say with this team is that

31:44part of the Shane Styen experience I'm gonna try to share this chart here that I have. Uh let me let me pull this up.

31:52Yeah. Okay. So, if you're on YouTube, you can you can check this out. Uh this is a chart that shows pass rate and

32:00expected pass rate. So, the teams over here on the bottom left are they have low pass rates and low expected pass

32:07rates. These are kind of dictating the run teams. the Colts and the Eagles are overlapping, which is exactly where Shane Stiken wants to be. He wants to

32:14be, you know, playing like his old team where they get to dictate the run and he doesn't have to like lean on Daniel

32:20Jones for a ton of passing. It's just really efficient. He's executing what he's being asked to do. And what he's being asked to do is very well designed.

32:27But I think this could be a game where they really lean on Jonathan Taylor. And Taylor has like a big big game here. Uh

32:34he's he was like in cover boy consideration for me because I think uh you know the Titans run defense kind of

32:40has a reputation from a couple years ago still is like oh Titans good against the run like not this year. They're dead

32:47last and he paid a lot for rush. Um and Cam Ward although I I think he'll be probably a little bit better than he has

32:53been. You know he was better in week two than week one. Probably make some strides but like it's been really really

32:59rough uh from an EPA perspective. you know, Ward has has had this team in in bad situations. Um, you know, setting up

33:08the other offense for success, particularly if you want to be pounding the rock. Uh, I think Jonathan Taylor could could just go nuts here. And he's

33:16run really well this year. He's third in breakaway yards per game, fifth in in rush yards over expected. Uh, you know,

33:22was was looking great against Denver last week. Gets a a soft matchup here.

33:27And I think the Colts just want to lean on him.

33:29Yeah, they they're happy with Jones, but like why would you >> why would you test it, you know? Like don't you're not going to push it too

33:36far. You just take take what Daniel Jones has given you, but Jonathan Taylor, I think, is is kind of your identity back here.

33:43>> Yeah, I played a ton of Jonathan Taylor last week. We were talking about him and uh unfortunately I made a rule because I

33:48was also into Tyler Warren as a tournament play and I made a rule to not play Taylor on Warren teams. So the

33:54Warren teams had more Bruce Hall and you know so but I did have enough Taylor to where like I still he he definitely came

34:01through for me last week. What you like is that >> he's not going to turn into Christian McAffrey but he's on the field now for

34:08all these passing plays and he's with a quarterback now that will actually check it down a few times a game. Um you know

34:14he's been on the field for 71.8% of the passing plays that's RB5 on the season.

34:18Like he's not going to turn he's not going to catch 70 passes. That's not.

34:22But the fact that he was below two receptions per game the previous three years. Like him just being able to catch

34:28like a guy that catched you three passes a game is a significant improvement.

34:32Like that's a 50% improvement.

34:35>> Like it is is he has 77 receiving yards.

34:37I know a chunk of him came on that 43 yard uh play. But again, John Taylor is also a guy pretty good if you get him in

34:43space like where he could like he he could do some things. Uh, but the last three years, 143 receiving yards, 153

34:50receiving yards, 136 receiving yards the past three years. He's gonna blow past that this season. It It's kind of like he was in that Nick Chub role and now he

35:00gets to move into like where Dvin Cook used to be or, you know, peak Ezekiel Elliott where you're not like a

35:07receiving back, right?

35:08>> But it's not it's it's not barren. you you get enough to where then you add it to the the breakaway runs and and the

35:16the touchdown.

35:17>> I don't think we're going to see >> uh I don't think we're going to see happen to Jonathan Taylor this year what

35:22happened to like Derrick Henry on Sunday.

35:25>> Right. Right. Right. Yeah.

35:26>> Like you can't run.

35:28>> They Yeah.

35:29>> Well, for one thing, Jonathan Taylor like the numbers they understate his involvement in the offense because in week one he he had that thing. Yeah. So,

35:40he wasn't out there at all. He had a 71% snap share. Last week, he was at 93%. He had 78% of the team attempts, up from

35:4745% in week one. Uh, he had a 10% target share in week one, 6% in week two. So, I don't want to like overstate the

35:55involvement as a receiver, but it's not nothing.

35:58>> Yeah, it's something.

36:00>> It's something. And then this is like they're they're gonna they're going to win this game. They're going to be they're going to be in enough positive

36:07to neutral script where Taylor's going to get there. They're not going to get Browns vers Derk Henry here. That's not happening.

36:13>> Yes, >> Taylor Taylor will have like this is a really nice setup for him. I think >> it's like, oh yeah, he he'll get fed

36:19here. It's, you know, solid floor, but there's a huge ceiling here, too. You know, we've seen some of these like explosive rushing backs actually have

36:29have pretty high DFS ceilings in in recent ceilings. I seasons. I think he's uh I think he's a really fun play.

36:36>> Yeah, abs like 100%. So yeah, he he's he's definitely locked in this week again. You just go to him. Uh we're you

36:43brought up Cam Ward. JC Laam's already been ruled out too. So it's just offensive line bad. I was looking to see

36:48if Tamandre Sweat was ruled out or not, too, because he didn't play last week for the Titans. And if he's out again,

36:54like again, just just remove him uh from the defensive line. And Jonathan Taylor is absolutely going to go nuts.

37:01>> I think he had 20 218 the last time they played. These two teams played, he had 218.

37:05>> Geez. Yeah. I mean that that's the type of stuff that's on the table here. The Titans, it's not like Ward has been bad.

37:11As I mentioned, you know, statistically, he's got like the lowest success rate.

37:15It's it's actually funny. Daniel Jones has the highest success rate in the league and Cam Ward has the lowest success rate in the league around 30%.

37:22Daniel Jones is like it's like 57%. I'm just looking at the chart, but um actually I'll pull it up now that I

37:29>> have already added it. Uh yeah, so this is it's a pretty big difference here.

37:34Daniel Jones all the way at the top right Cam Ward is in his own zone here like no one else is even close. Um and

37:43that's obviously going to make it hard for them to sustain offense. But uh Laam out and then Dan Moore who is their big

37:50tackle addition in free agency has been awful. Uh >> yeah he was awful before they added him.

37:57like he he was one of those ads like uh because when I do the offseason like team needs going into the draft and like

38:02that salary is like well this dude's also been like bottom 10 in like every metric the past like three years. So

38:08cool. I hope this works out for you.

38:11>> It is not. Uh they are they're second worst in pass block grade. They're third worst in pass block win rate. They're

38:18allowing pressure at the second highest rate. They're allowing quick pressure at the sixth highest rate. Uh they're not really even getting blitzed. And then

38:26Ward from a clean pocket is second worst in EPA per drop back. So there there's some concerns about the quarterback even

38:33when they do keep him clean. Uh Colts don't have like a great pass rush, but this is such a bad offensive line.

38:39>> Matter.

38:40>> It might not matter. Yeah, you can do anything. You could probably get pressure here. So yeah, it just >> it sets up as um

38:47>> a game the Colts should really control.

38:49You're almost hoping that that the Titans show a little life to keep, you know, so they don't pull Taylor. Uh Ward

38:55has been a little bit fun at times. Um he's he has his moments. Uh you know, he's not worst in EPA. Uh Joe Flacco's

39:03worst and he's about the same as JJ McCarthy. It's just the success rate so bad, but he has he does pop up. We've

39:09seen the highlights.

39:10>> Our uh our guy Ryan Mcrist, our prospect guy, uh his comparison for Cam Lord coming out was early career Josh Allen

39:17out of Wyoming. Yeah. was like he was like this is a guy that coming into the NFL is just going to be so reliant on

39:24his arrogant arm strength like he plays the game with like arrogant arm strength until he learns to play quarterback is like we're he'll make fun plays remember

39:32we used to do Josh Allen sugar high Josh Josh Allen like he would do some crazy you'd be like what what was that

39:37like early career Josh he'd do some [ __ ] you'd be like whoa whoa what was that man like because he was so much better

39:42than like the competition he played against and he was he had so much his arm strength was so good but then when

39:47you learned the nuances of like not taking sacks and like playing the actual quarterback position. It took you know he's manifested and it doesn't always

39:54work out for everyone like the Josh Allen way. But uh that comparison was I thought pretty apt considering what we've seen like the first two games from

40:01Cam Ward like cuz like that touchdown he threw toomomen.

40:04It's just like that's the [ __ ] like >> dude threw that thing 75 yards in the air. It was a 10 yard pass vertical like

40:10but >> broke a bunch of rules about what you do. Yeah.

40:13>> Yeah. That's the stuff man. That's the stuff he he'll do. And right now he's not taking any free squares. He has a 4%

40:20target rate to running backs >> uh right now. By far the lowest in the NFL.

40:25>> Yeah. I mean, if you want to if if we want to do some excuse making for for Cam Ward. Um so he has a first read

40:33attempt on 57% of his throws. His ADOT is 8.8 which is pretty deep. Um, and so this is like the offense, I think. You

40:44know, like he's >> he's in an offense that is aggressive, >> which is kind of fun, I guess. I I think

40:50it's a little strange because our offensive line sucks. Like I'm surprised they're not doing like more gimme stuff, you know, but he's doing like he's he's

40:59executing the play, you know, at a high rate. Um, and so, you know, what's he what else is he supposed to do? Maybe

41:08>> Yeah. Maybe the offense just isn't that good, you know. Um but yeah, it's it's going to be it's going to be pretty

41:17inconsistent at the quarterback position. I think Tony Pard is is someone that um I'm kind of like making excuses for more than Ward where

41:26>> like he he's a 45% success rate. That's pretty good. He's running back 20 in rush yards over expected per game. Given

41:33the state of the offense, that's pretty good. I think Pard, you know, still like he honestly he's like kind of doing

41:39better than last year relative to the quality of the passing game that he's attached to, but uh it's like a little

41:45hard for me to get that excited this week. He gets a decent matchup here, but it's more like I think at some point

41:52Pard will will kind of reward those who keep the faith. I just I'm not sure if if this is the week or not. Yeah, I mean

42:00it's just right now without the receiving stuff with Cam Ward throw not throwing any running backs like you're just so tethered to him finding the end

42:07zone right now.

42:08>> Totally. That's that's the that's the hard thing because you have this guy that is doing well with the carries he's

42:13getting but he also hasn't had scoring opportunities because the offense isn't creating scoring opportunities and then he's also not catching any passes.

42:21>> Yep. Yep. not the greatest for fantasy football because he's playing good real football, but also >> we don't that doesn't help us to the

42:31great the degree the over sometimes it doesn't overlap to the degree we wish it did.

42:36>> We we talked a little bit about Warren.

42:38I think he's a strong play. Um Downs had a lot more involvement in week two. He had a ton of first read stuff. 35% first

42:46read target rate. I actually went and looked cuz I was like is this the R is he the RPO guy now? It's not. None of

42:51his stuff was RPO. He's at zero RPO targets. Um, and it's not even really like play action stuff where you see

42:57with Warren, he gets like these roll outs where it's like, I'm looking at you and I'm either going to throw to you or

43:03throw it out of bounds or scramble. So, it's like very, it's kind of like a one read type of play. That wasn't really

43:09what was happening. Down stuff looked like very traditional kind of first reads um to me. And then Michael Pitman um is the one in kind of the RPO role

43:20per per the charting um which I think helps his floor a little bit. But it was nice to see down like I I like downs. I

43:27have a lot of downs at best ball. So it was nice to see him kind of come back to life last week. At the same time it

43:32complicates the wide receiver pecking order because Pitman's still involved.

43:37Downs could kind of fluctuate week to week with the targets. To me, it's kind of Warren is really the only pass

43:44catcher in the entire game that I'm that interested in. I mean, Ridley is still the number one, but it's not a very

43:48exciting role. We talked about Ward probably struggling here.

43:51>> Um, Imanor only had 68% route participation last week, even though he had the touchdown. That was actually down from week one where he was at 82%.

43:59So, I think he's like a fun stash, but I don't really want to play him yet. Any thoughts on the pass catchers here?

44:05Yeah, I uh I just wonder how much of the last week's, you know, dip for Pitman and Rise for Downs just had to do with

44:12Certan, you know, Patrick, you him just him just getting Patrick Certan. I think we expected Pitman to not really be involved and like I think this is also

44:19the week uh when we get there, this will probably be the the reality check for Quinton Johnston as well. He's going to

44:25just be kind of sacrificed to Patrick Certan. I thought it was dope that Tyler Warren won a rep versus Patrick Certan,

44:31though. That was cool. Uh he won a one rep. Yeah, I was like because, you know, just more proof for Tyler Warren stuff.

44:37I just like I didn't need more of it, but I was like, you know, he won a nice little one-on-one and Daniel Jones hit

44:43like put a nice ball on him. So, I was like, "Oh, that's cool." But yeah, I just wonder if it's going to be the down

44:47stuff's always going to go to like matchup stuff when they face good outside defensive teams. That's where Downs makes the impact. And then we've

44:54al also talked up the game potential game script for this game as opposed to last week. And it just sets up to be

44:59like if they're running Jonathan Taylor at Nauseium, Downs just isn't gonna be on the field enough.

45:04>> They're not an 11.

45:06>> Yeah.

45:06>> Yeah, that's a that's a very good point.

45:08>> And like, you know, we just believe it's such a strong signal for a Jonathan Taylor game. But if you get out early,

45:13you know, he can, you know, it's all about how you score those early points in these types of games, right? Like

45:18>> Yeah.

45:19>> Yeah. You know, >> that's that's true. Jonathan Taylor tackled at the at the seven Josh Josh downs quick hitters touchdown

45:27>> because they've been bad to slot receivers the Titans the open the first two weeks they've been really poor the slot receivers so that you just hope you

45:33get it early because I think as the game moves on we'll see less of the 11 personnel stuff.

45:40>> Uh let's let's move to the Bengals at Vikings. Uh the Browning um you know oh wow do you even need Burrow? Yeah, you

45:49need Burrow. You need The Browning stuff is so fraudulent.

45:54They're they like they take Jamar Chase, they just pepper him with these targets.

45:59Uh the first read stuff on Browning is hilarious. He he's attempted a first read throw. It's one game, you know, things can skew in one game for sure,

46:06but he attempted a first read throw on 76% of his drop backs. Like 55 is high.

46:13So he's just like he they're like like what's the what's the what's the design of this play? Like cool, I'm doing that.

46:20He had a 9% turnover worthy throw rate.

46:22Like he's not he's just like I told him what to do and I'll do it, man. I'm not like don't don't confuse me with like a

46:28second read. I'm just gonna do the first thing. Um they did not really play action with him. He's he he actually did

46:36throw it deep a little bit, but mostly he just peppered Jamar Chase who saw his ADOT decline from 17.4, which is

46:43obviously abnormally high, but it dropped to 7.7. Um, and he had a 36% targets per out run. T. Higgins ADOT was

46:5112.3 week 1, 12.4 week two. Targets per out run 16% then 20% looks kind of like it's just going to be I mean at least

46:59last week he was just like, "All right, get the ball to chase." And uh there's no other second option. Just just get

47:04the ball to Chase, please. But that's I don't think going to hold up super well now. Brian Flores, >> right? Yeah. I mean, Brian Flores gives

47:13you so much stuff after the snap that's just like we talked about a little bit with like the week one Caleb stuff and

47:18uh you know, even Pennock while he was when he did throw last week didn't have like a ton of success. It's just yeah, I

47:25think Browning is going to have a lot of stuff that surprises him, you know, postnap in this game. And and you know,

47:31it's really hard to take anything from the 2023 sample uh from when he stepped in for those seven games because the

47:37offense was so different. It had Tyler Boyd. they weren't using Jamar Chase in the same capacity that they use him now.

47:45So, I don't know if there's a lot to take from that sample. Plus, like the immediate schedule, like these next four

47:49weeks with the Bengals is just really bad. I just don't think we're going to get a lot of clarity on like did is Jake

47:54Brown like a uh you know, someone that is that can keep this thing afloat like he did to the degree he did two years

48:01ago. I don't know. The offensive line still not good. They're not running the ball at all right now like with any type

48:08of effectiveness. Do you think that changes here because the Vikings not good against the run and teams have run against the Vikings at a at a pretty

48:14high rate so far?

48:15>> Yeah, I this will be kind of the test, right? Like can they can they find something because they didn't run it

48:21well in either game so far, but also in the other games that they faced, the the opponents that they faced, the their

48:28second game, the teams didn't run on those teams really either.

48:31>> So, you know, maybe this is a spot where they can get I assume they want to try.

48:35I I would I would at least assume they want to try and not have Jake Browning drop back 40 times against Brian Flores.

48:42>> And I think that the Vikings probably want to try. You know, they have Jordan Mason taking the lead back here.

48:49>> The ghost of Carson Wentz is back, baby.

48:53>> Garrison Wentz might be better than JJ Mar. I think it's possible.

48:57>> Well, the the two game it the two game sample. I mean, Kevin Oonnell's co some stuff out of Josh Dos and Nick Mullen.

49:04Like how far off is this current version of Carson Wentz to those guys?

49:09>> I think he's better. I mean Nick Mullins is like maybe maybe secretly actually good, but um it's like I just like just throw for a

49:19lot of yards, please. Um he's got some Jamus. But uh yeah, I mean Wentz I think went I don't know at times WZ has been so

49:29unwatchably bad but there's been other versions of him that have been like a little bit fun. Um so >> he's like Jimmy G in a sense where like

49:37if you give him like structure he's been all right like he's had moments or at least times where he say like hey we

49:43could at least do we could stay alive here in structure. Then like again when Carson wants goes on his own, >> he's like doing his own thing. It's been

49:52it's been horrendous. So maybe with Kevin Oonnell there's some structure here. This is going to be an interesting It's gonna be interesting because

49:58they've run the fewest plays in the NFL by far through two games. Um and just how much that was JJ McCarthy's

50:05influence on the offense. We obviously don't have Aaron Jones here either. So we know they probably want to run Jordan Mason. The word has been like they they

50:13they want to give him a workhorse role. Obviously, the backups are terrible, too, cuz Ty Chandler's on IR.

50:18So, like the backup situation again.

50:21>> Yeah. So, we we have a spot where Jordan Mason's going to be immensely popular in DFS weekend just by proxy of workload

50:28and cost.

50:30>> Yeah.

50:30>> And how much like can we get a leverage spot out of Justin Jefferson here? Like, what does this do for Justin Jefferson?

50:36Because he hasn't run any routes because the play volume. If I'm Carson Wentz, I'm like this might be my last go. I

50:42don't have any more games I'm starting in the NFL. I got Justin Jefferson. Like I might try to like cook some stuff up

50:47like and I wonder if just Kevin Cam Taylor Brit's not gonna play in this game for the Bengals. Uh he's got a

50:53hamstring injury. So it's like man is this like an immense leverage spot for Justin Jefferson? He's not cheap though.

50:58It's not cheap leverage.

50:59>> It's not Yeah, it's not cheap.

51:01>> And I think not having a bad spot.

51:05>> Yeah, you are.

51:06>> That's a great point about just be like if Burrow's here, you feel better about it.

51:10>> You feel way better. Um yeah, like the thing that would worry me is, you know, their so their pass rates and and Kevin

51:18Oonnell's been pretty consistent where he has a lean to the pass, but in week one they had a lean to the run, only

51:26passing 52% of the time. Uh then last week they were a little ahead of expected, but they were at 64% on a 63%

51:33expected pass rate. That's, you know, a little concerning in a game where um both teams might want to run. And so

51:42like what's, you know, are we looking at another kind of mid60s or even lower uh pass rate? The the positive thing would

51:51be this is the EPA chart again, JJ McCarthy here. This is like very very bad and pretty easy to improve on,

51:59>> you know? So like there's a lot >> that's what I was wondering how Kevin Oonnell approaches this. Does he feel

52:03like way cuz the way he called the first two games are kind of different than he's ever really called games and that's

52:10like how does he feel how has Wentz looked in practice? How confident is he to maybe do something similar to things

52:17he's done in the past or or he doesn't and it's just like we're just trying to hope Brownie makes some mistakes. We

52:23pound Jordan Mason. We get the [ __ ] out of here. Well, so Davis was making the point on on the pot earlier that I did

52:29with him where he was he's like, you know, you don't got to protect Carson Wentz and we've seen, you know, with

52:34Mullins that they're just kind of like they'll chuck it. So that's where >> But they also got pushed like the Mullins games came against like the

52:41Lions >> got pushed.

52:43>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's where the Burrow thing is is I think Wentz could be ultimately pretty fun for Jefferson.

52:49I'm not sure it happens this week because of Jake Browning being the on the other side of this game.

52:56Yeah, that's the bummer.

52:57>> Yeah, that's the bummer. Um, >> but yeah, I'm with you. Out outside of Jordan Mason though, I ended up not

53:04really having anyone in my pool. Even with the Chase stuff and the first read stuff he had last week, I think it's

53:09just hard with the context to receiver on the slate that I don't if I if if I get shadow run by Chase, I do, but I

53:15don't think at his cost he's gonna he's gonna make because there's just so many good receivers on the slate.

53:20>> I agree. And, you know, he's obviously very expensive, too. But, you know, if you have Chase in >> uh reddraft and stuff, he's locked in.

53:28>> I mean, you got to play him. But we have done this before. Like, we did it with CD last year when Dak got hurt. We

53:34actually did it with Chase two years ago when Browning came in. But guys like Devonte Adams, Justin Jefferson, uh DJ Moore, that stretcher, Tyson Beijing had

53:42to come in. Like, it's still it's still like we have to expect fragility even for a player like Jamar Chase. like

53:49reddraft you're just you're in bed like the you know >> you're playing >> but DFS you have a little more leniency.

53:56I don't know like if some what what would be the price point for you to move off of Chase for an offer if someone was

54:02like trying to buy >> uh I mean >> if I offer you say say I give you Z Flowers and a running back are you still

54:13like hell no?

54:14>> What's the running back? Uh, well, it would have to be like someone in like an RB2 range for it even be like a a

54:20palatable offer, right?

54:21>> I'm probably like a no there. I'm skilled enough that maybe I would take Hall and um, >> what if you have Jamar Chase and

54:30>> I'm probably not.

54:31>> What if you have Jamar Chase and have a need at running back >> and someone in your league has say like

54:37an underachieving wide receiver one and a running back that you have your eye on? Would you like Thomas?

54:43>> Yeah, I was going to say like if would you do like Chase for Brian Thomas Jr.

54:46and one of those like RB2 type guys for Chase? Uh >> it would depend a lot on the RB2 type of

54:54guy like that. Like who are we talking about? Is it >> Let's see. Maybe we can throw some guys out there.

54:59>> Uh what if it's like >> Jaylen Warren I think. No.

55:03>> No. What if it's like you know guys like Well, we had we had Pard Pard still be a no.

55:08>> He would be a no. Yeah. So it' have to be up in like the Kamar Kairen Williams area.

55:15>> Yeah, it'd have to be something where I feel like I'm like getting something >> and you probably don't get that offer.

55:21Yeah.

55:21>> Yeah, >> you probably don't get that.

55:24>> I don't Maybe I'm >> What about an underachieving? What if it's Amari and Hampton? Are you taking the double?

55:31>> Yeah. Yeah, that I actually might do. I think Hampton is going to be fine. I think it'll be >> Yeah, I do too. So yeah. Yeah. So, if

55:38you offer, >> you could do like a genty genty Thomas.

55:42>> Just get the old one two turn someone had. They're like, "Hey, trade. I'll take your 101 for my bad one-two turn."

55:49>> Yeah, I'd do that.

55:50>> Yeah, cuz I don't think he's like a clear cell, but I was just wondering like just running the gambit of like

55:54could you use this initial thing? So, we have like >> this run where they go what is it?

55:58Vikings, Packers, um Lions. Is it Vikings, Packers? Three of the four are on the road, too. Yeah, it's Vikings, Broncos, Lions, Packers,

56:07three of them on the road. And if Chase turns in a bunch of like 65 yard games, then you can't move him after that right

56:14now.

56:15>> Yeah, that's true.

56:15>> You still probably can. And it's like, >> so, and I'm not saying you just do this because he's your one-on-one. He's

56:22coming off of a good game. He just caught 10 balls from Browning. He could easily PPR scam his way to some

56:26production. Um, but I was just running I was just kind of picking your brain of like maybe if some gamers were thinking

56:31about it, you know, what what uh what would be the outcomes?

56:35>> Yeah. No, I think I think trading for Yeah, I would I would do like an underperformer like a Brian Thomas. Um,

56:43and yeah, a running back with upside a Hampton. Yeah, someone like >> Yeah. Don't don't give me like I'm not taking like James Connor or Chuba or

56:54Warren like >> Bree Hall. Oh, you still in Bree Hall?

56:56>> I I'm still, you know, I'm still in Bree Hall. I would do Breece Hall and Brian Thomas for for Jamar Chase.

57:01>> Yeah. Yeah.

57:04>> Something to think about. See, >> it is. Um, >> fun to talk about those things.

57:08>> Let me see. So, we've got >> I was in a league that actually had a Mecha Ibuka traded for Justin Jefferson.

57:14So, like this stuff happens. It's why it's fun to talk about these things like because stuff happens in leagues >> when I'm looking for injuries and

57:21obviously Bua popped up. So, I was I was, you know, poking around, searching on Twitter, and with with Ibuka, I was

57:28just exposed to like a whole world of like like boisterous uh kind of obnoxiously wrong, you know,

57:39casual fantasy takes on a Buka where it's like one of them was like, "Chabuka is a top five wide receiver rest of

57:47season. This is not an exaggeration."

57:49Like, it is an exaggeration. It's a wild exaggeration.

57:53>> This guy, this guy that uh literally does have 100 yards receiving and has a 20% target share each game. Uh but has

58:00three touchdowns. He does have the three touchdowns.

58:03>> His profile like is basically identical to Sterling Shepards through two weeks.

58:08I like I think he's >> I do. Yeah, let's not dunk on like Yeah, but let's not go crazy either.

58:13>> Let's not go crazy, please.

58:15>> Um anyway, uh Steelers of Patriots. This one is um a game where the Patriots are probably a little bit better against the

58:25run than than people think. I think their defensive line improvements have have been good. Milton Williams is is popping >> in some metrics.

58:34>> Yeah. Um and so I think their pass rush is is pretty solid and they're good against the run. The secondary is

58:41atrocious and probably without Christian Gonzalez again. So I God, you know, it's always this I can't believe I'm I'm here through just

58:51two weeks, but what if the Steelers are are are actually willing to attack through the air here? They they've been they've kind of been okay. Like 65% pass

59:02rate week one, that was 1% below expected. 67% last week, that was 1% above expected. Uh I I think DK Metaf's

59:09a little more interesting than he's been. He he's got an eight out of just 5.5. this would probably be like a

59:14get-right spot for him.

59:16>> Rogers has been, >> you know, his EPA is good. The con the consistency is concerning, but this is a really nice matchup for, you know,

59:25downfield passing production. The pass rush is better than it was for the Patriots, but it's not like super super formidable. Uh Jaylen Warren might see

59:33more work here than he has, which would be nice, but I don't think this is a great matchup. Um, I'm actually I'm I'm

59:39you know, it makes me nervous, but I'm kind of interested in the passing game for the Steelers here.

59:44>> I think I mean, it's easy to get there from just the top down stuff. I mean, these are the two teams that have

59:49allowed the most explosive pass plays in the NFL through through two weeks. And we'll see if Christian Gonzalez corrects that whenever he gets back on the field,

59:57but they're just giving up explosives left and right. The Steelers is easy because they don't have anybody healthy.

60:01Like, they keep losing dudes. Joey Porter Jr. is hurt. He's still not going to play. Deshawn Elliott's hurt. Derek Harmon's hurt. They also lost Alex

60:07Heismith. He went on IR, one of their better pass rushers. Uh Isaiah Loudermilk had a high ankle sprain. He's gonna be out. So, like they've just

60:14lost, they've just really lost a bunch of core pieces these first two games. Um where it's easy to kind of talk yourself

60:21into it. And it's a great spot, I think, for Drake May again, but the problem is always with Drake May. I think he's a

60:26great season long starter. It's just you don't know who to stack them with. The Patriots had another weird They actually had a weird wide receiver rotation last

60:32week. They got M. Collins involved. And I don't know if that's because they were they were going to run the ball more and

60:38they they they wanted to have Matt Collins's run blocking involved more, but M. Collins weasled his way into the rotation from week one and lowered

60:44everyone. So, >> you know what it was?

60:48>> Diggs went into the slot. He was 55% slot rate and then Deario Douglas's rout participation dropped from 74% to 35%.

60:57So, they they just >> what they did. Hollands wasn't in a full-time role. is at 58% but it's now like >> and then Austin Hooper jumped from 17%

61:05to 45%. So you have more 12 and now you have a fourth wide receiver who's rotating in. Your slot ride wide

61:11receiver didn't completely go to zero.

61:13He went to zero from a fantasy perspective but 35% still a decent chunk to steal from other people. Diggs was only at 58% route participation which

61:22was down from 70% in week one. He had a high targets per hour run of 28% but he just wasn't out there a lot. So, it's

61:27like literally you have M. Collins at 58% rail participation. Same for Diggs.

61:33Douglas is is gone, but but still a problem for other people. Hooper's not valuable, but he's a problem for Henry who dropped from 74% to 68%

61:42participation, which is in like kind of the Javon Sanders like tight end two zone now.

61:47>> Um, >> and Kahan Booty also dropped from 83% to 74%. So, not a single wide receiver at 75 Not a single receiver at 75% plus

61:58route participation last week for for the Patriots because they're they're rotating in guys and like I don't know.

62:04Do do your thing Josh McDaniels. Like it it worked. Like I I'm not mad about >> Well, we expect him to have success. We

62:10expect them to have success rushing here. I mean, the Steelers have been like I just lay out all the guys they

62:14have out and they've been bad against the run both games like they you know Kenneth Walker uh you know came out and

62:21the Breeze Hall torched them in week one now maybe they don't they're their explosive guy could break out here >> you know two explosive guys they got to

62:29play him >> maybe yeah get him out of the doghouse but >> 2% snap share last week did you see the

62:35thing about um Henderson's that play that Stevenson had that third and three >> uh that I don't know. What was it?

62:43>> Was on some podcast.

62:45>> Yeah, the catch was sick. Um, and it was a beautiful throw. But, uh, apparently they were having like a bad day of

62:51practice, you know, last week and they ran that play and Trayvon Henderson like made an awesome catch and like, you know, exploded downfield and like

63:01everyone got fired up and it like kind of revived. They're like and he like you pointed to it in as an example of like

63:07the way we practice is going to affect the way we play. But then they were like, and so it's just funny for that to

63:11like go to Raandre. So like both backs like fired us up, you know? I'm like, yeah, it's real funny. It's very very

63:17funny.

63:20>> Henderson had a uh he had a sick wheel route early in the game and then just made the couple mistakes that got him

63:25off the field. But >> yeah, >> they the fact that they were able to kind of play more 12 and and um have the

63:31run success that they had a little bit of it just better than week one. It did they were able to pivot and do some of

63:36the things we talked about that was a hindrance tournament in week one. So week one they were 30th in pre- snap

63:41motion rate. Last week uh Drake May goes from 28% to 56.7% uh you know pre- snap motion. Uh and that just been again uh through two

63:51games he's 22 of 27 82% completion rate 10.4 yards surpassed him but two touchdowns on those pre- snap motion plays. So it just makes it a little bit

64:00easier uh when they're able to run play out of base offense uh for Drake May. It makes life easier for him. So, um,

64:07>> their pass rate dropped from >> their pass rate dropped from 76% to 57% last week, which was which was 1%

64:15underexpected. So, they, you know, kind of playing to the script they had.

64:17That's that's where they want to be.

64:19They want to be like, >> you know, they'll be fine in the 60s, but they they had to chuck it a bunch.

64:24Honestly, it looked a lot. Week one reminded me of 2024 and I watched a ton.

64:29I'm, you know, big big fan of Drake May, so I watched a ton of the Patriots in 2024, which was not fun. And they,

64:37that's how they, it was like they just become one-dimensional and May's dropping back and like he will make mistakes if you just like force him to

64:45to constantly throw. He's much better in this type of um you know where where he can kind of front run a little bit and

64:53you know use his legs and and play action and and be part of kind of a more balanced attack. That that's what

64:59they're going to try to do here because as you point out the the injuries on the Steelers side and the run defense,

65:04they're 28th in EPL per rush, 28th in rushing DBOA. This is a pretty good matchup.

65:09>> It it's going to be Stevenson though I think you know he he had 65% snap shares in both games. He looked good. The

65:15bummer about the Trayvon and that split is like I always thought like Stephvenson was like dec like good. Like there's some of these other splits like

65:21the Hampton Nagi. It's like well Naji's never really shown us he's a good player and like Stevenson I was like man I

65:27think he's better than his environment the past two years and I think that these guys will help each other. Um it's

65:33just that you know Henderson's got to not make the mistakes he made last week.

65:37>> I think he'll get back on the field though. Like >> I do too. I do too. Yeah, he'll be fine.

65:43But like I my thing I have a ton of Henderson when he was going at the five six turn. I don't really have that much

65:48Henderson. I have some events, you know, but uh yeah, I wasn't in baseball. I was not taking a ton of them there. And I

65:54actually was taking a ton of Stevenson.

65:56So I I thought this >> last week after Stevenson had a bad week one. I thought they might they might kind of hand it over to Henderson

66:03quickly. But my preseason read was that it would be kind of Stephenson for a while. and he bought himself at least a

66:09week, probably a month with with that performance last last week against Miami. So, I think they lean on him here. He's like a solid, you know, he's

66:17he's someone you're you're happy to have in a reddraft. He's kind of a high-end RB3. Probably need him to score a

66:22touchdown.

66:23>> Um, but, you know, not someone I'm like looking to play in DFS, but I think he'll he'll be the lead back here.

66:29>> Yep. Yep. 100%. Yeah. I mean, that's what this game could like on the surface because both defenses have been so bad,

66:34you're like, "Oh, this game could be fun." But it's just like hard to get to a piece outside of DK Metaf to like make

66:40like a core argument for it.

66:41>> It's like Metaf and Drake May mini.

66:44That's that's how I think I'd play in DFS. I just like >> Yeah.

66:47>> I don't even know if I'd want to stack him with Rogers. I'd play him with the other quarterback.

66:51>> Yeah. And that's I actually do think though if you are in like a a reddraft league and you got boxed out at

66:58quarterback or you had Burrow and lost him or something like I do think he's a fine streamer this week streamer. Yeah.

67:05Because I mean both guys that they gave up points to uh the Patriots that is are already the QB2 streamer types, right?

67:12Like Tua and Gino. Like that's where Rogers fits in, right?

67:16>> Yeah. No, Rogers I think is like a totally I've got him 19th in the the rankings right now and it might

67:22>> Yeah, I have 18. Yeah, I have 18 so it's like right in and I do think it's a decent streaming week too for even the

67:28amount of injuries we had. U this there's some good QB matchups out here.

67:32Yeah, >> we have like Darnold, who we didn't get to, is in a good spot. Like, you know that you probably haven't played Darnold

67:38for two weeks, but this week you might actually talk yourself into playing him.

67:42We have Mariota on the board now, too.

67:45>> Yeah, Mariota. I probably need to move him up. He's going to run more than than some of these other guys. But, um,

67:53yeah, I think I think Rogers is is set up pretty well. I mean, it's one of those games you could just see him like

67:58I can just see him kind of running around and throwing for, you know, three, four touchdowns and and being like, god damn it, like you needed

68:04Rogers this week. What's going on?

68:07>> But even like week one, you seen it even you have the four touchdown Roger game like you can't bring any you know you

68:13it's hard to bring someone along for that ride because they just incorporate so many guys.

68:16>> Can I interest you in Darnell Washington? Can it stay?

68:21>> Yes.

68:23>> Ben Scourneck uh maybe gets in the end zone again. Um, all right. Let's go to Rams Eagles.

68:29Uh, this is a a game where I think the Eagles pass rush could be a problem for the Rams uh offensive line, but kind of

68:40like in week one where they, you know, they play the Texans and and Stafford, they got to Stafford and he was not

68:47efficient, but like when Stafford threw the ball, it was awesome. It's just like there were there were a lot of times

68:54where it wasn't awesome and and he was getting taken down. But uh I have interest in Puka Nakua here and interest

69:01in Devonte Adams >> always.

69:04>> I I don't think both will probably have big games together. It's not that type of game environment, but both guys roles

69:09are just insane right now.

69:12>> Yeah, they're both top five and in and target rate per out run. Listen, McVey understands the assignment. Like he's got our best interest at heart. like,

69:18you know, because even though you might not like Kairen Williams, he's always still at our fantasy best interests at heart with Kron Williams. Say, "Hey,

69:24what if I just gave your guy the ball a bunch and you get to score touchdowns?"

69:27It's like, "Cool, man. That's what we want.

69:30What if I just got the ball to my only two good receivers?" Yes, man. That's exactly what that's really exactly what

69:36we want. And I love that uh I love what he's doing this year, especially like, you know, uh I love what he's doing to

69:42like counter the current defensive meta and insulate his offensive line. I mean, right now, um, Matthew Stafford through two weeks, he's been under center for

69:5165% of his dropbacks, by far the highest rate in the league. League rate is 29.9%.

69:56His previous career high in a season, Matthew Stafford is 47% snaps under center and that was in 2019. And what playing under center allows

70:04>> you out this year? 65 >> 65% yes.

70:07>> Damn.

70:07>> Of drops. And what playing under center allows you to do is do all that dressing in pre- snap. like you get to run motion

70:14and you get to run play action and this is how you make your bad offensive line look better.

70:18>> Uh so on on just isolating just isolating the under center snaps, the Rams have run pre-nap motion 71% of those snaps and play action 77% of the

70:30time.

70:31>> Uh using pre- snap motion, Stafford's 33 of 39. Using play action, he's 21 of 26 with 11 yards for pass. Now, when he's

70:39both on the same play, uh he's 18 of 20 for 11 yards or pass attempt and two of his touchdowns. So, I just love

70:45structurally the position Shawn McVey is putting him in to be efficient. He doesn't run, so he's hard for fantasy.

70:52He did have 19 fantasy points in this matchup in both matchups. So, like, and that was a better version of the Eagles

70:58defense, I think, is right now, even though they're still very good, but you know, it is they lost a lot of pieces.

71:03So, he's another guy that's probably maybe undervalued as like a QB2 streamer type. Harder to get to in DFS because you don't get the rushing. Like, he has

71:11to throw three passing touchdowns for you to to hit and it's just tough to bet on that type of archetype. But, that

71:18trickles down to everything I just laid out, the Puka Nua, Devonte Adams stuff.

71:22>> Clean pocket EPA per drop back. Rams are the number one team in the league. If they keep Stafford clean, it's clicking

71:29right now. Uh, but they're not keeping him clean very often. They're 26th in preventing pressure and they're third worst in allowing quick pressure. Um, so

71:40it's just going to I think it's going to be like a very kind of like fits and starts type of game. You know, there's

71:45they've just punted for the third time in a row, but then also Puka has some sick play or Adams goes off. Uh, because

71:51the roles are just crazy crazy. Like Devonte Adams has a 34% target share and is also like clearly the number two.

71:59>> Yes.

72:01>> Well, I mean, yeah. I mean, it it'd be cool if Davis Allen stopped scoring touchdowns. Uh, but it's again, McVey

72:07just understands. It's just very easy.

72:09The Rams are just a very easy team to diagnose when we love that. Like, as just like we we can count on it.

72:16>> Where are you at on Kyron Williams?

72:17Because he he did lose the touchdown to Cororum last week. Um, but when I was looking at the numbers, I was still

72:23like, hey, 82% snap share in week one, 70% last week, 68% of the attempts last week. That's down from 72% but still

72:30really high. He's running back four in uh team carry share through two weeks, running back eight in snap share. The efficiency sucks. It's always kind of

72:39sucked as a receiver, but the the rushing efficiency is not so great, but 41% success rate is actually okay. And that's kind of the Kiran thing. He just

72:46kind of chugs along and and I don't know. I it doesn't look to me like he's like seeding a ton of work to Cororum

72:53here. It's still pretty much the status quo, but what are your thoughts? Yeah, McVey had the quote afterwards and he said his quote was in much more in

73:01alignment with how he wants things to look. But the question is how does that look when it's outside of kind of

73:06one-sided game scripts because >> in the first half Williams out touched Gorm 7 to1 and he out touched him 12 to2

73:12through three quarters. Um so I kind of also like you I my takeaway at least for this one sample was there's not much

73:20here to fret about until it starts to build up. Uh but that's really kind of where I'm at.

73:26Yeah, I think he's like a high-end RB2 for for fantasy right now.

73:30>> You always need the touchdowns with them because the efficiency and the receiving are just never there. But they always the Rams are also always one of his

73:36teams though when they get inside the 10 like they like to run the football.

73:39>> They do. Although Adams has given them a little bit more >> Yeah. He's got the the the >> the touchdown stuff.

73:48>> Yeah. He always and he's always had that.

73:50>> Right. That was why I was really bullish on him this year because last year Demarcus Robinson had 12 endzone targets

73:56and I'm like Jesus. I'm like if that's just not Demarcus Robinson like like that's gonna be Devonte Adams now. Cool.

74:03Like all right. Yeah. Like because even if I was like man even if Adams like is just hits like the age wall and he's not

74:07efficient like I think he's going to have touchdown opportunities.

74:10>> He has not hit the age wall as well.

74:12>> No he still and he still just gets open regularly. He has he has five end zone targets already through two games.

74:18>> That's wild.

74:19>> Yeah. like we we love this. We love this.

74:21>> I know. I I don't have enough. I didn't completely fade him. I don't have nearly enough. Um on the Eagles side, Jaylen

74:28Herz is coming off this disappointing game. I thought they would be efficient against the Chiefs. They were not. He had a 37th percentile mark in EPA per

74:34play, 23rd percentile in success rate and then they only passed 46% of the time. So, low passing volume in passing game.

74:43>> What? Yeah.

74:45>> Nine touch pushes. Well, we built the whole offense out of a tush push, >> right? Well, when you're allowed to uh

74:50to to go before the snap, I probably would too. You know that fi find a play where you can move before the ball

74:56snapped and then run the hell out of it.

74:59Um the Rams defense is really good. So, I don't this is not a bounceback spot.

75:04Uh they're they're great on their pass is awesome. They're the coverage numbers are really good.

75:10>> Um they're not really blitzing. So, you know, they're they're kind of Packer Packers light, you know, where you get the the pass rush, really strong

75:18coverage, and you don't have to blitz.

75:20Um, it's it's a it's a tough matchup.

75:24>> Yeah. I think the only wrinkle that if we're trying to have some optimism for the Eagles to potentially outside of

75:30just getting pushed and maybe having to throw, uh, because right now they have three passing plays of 10 or more yards.

75:37Three. The next closest team is 11. Like this is like they're the first team since 2010 to start two and 0 without a

75:45passing touchdown.

75:46>> Like this is all stuff that just like is not sustainable. Like this is you can't like this can't be the operation, right?

75:52Like there's and and there's too much talent, right? Like even if the offensive line isn't quite as good as it's been in years past, you still have

75:59AJ Brown, you have Deontay Smith, you have Saquon Barkley, you have D there's and you have Jaylen Hersz. Like there's just too much talent for this to be the

76:05way it is for 15 more games. So if like if there is an avenue outside of just the Rams pushing them, it's through two

76:13games, Jaylen Herz has uh faced two high drop two high safeties on 70 67.2% was drop x, the highest rate in the NFL.

76:21Right now the no teams run fewer two high looks than the Rams. They're at 70.7% single high safety. And in the two

76:29games these teams played last year because we have static coordinators uh for the Rams is that they ran single high on 64.9% of the drop bags Hertz

76:38had. So maybe that's the avenue here to where we get some more vertical passing and that could help out our guy Arthur

76:46Juan the because you know if it's going to help someone it's definitely Arthur Juan because against single high looks since he joined the Eagles he's been

76:53targeted on 30.4% of his routes at seventh in the NFL and he's at 3.2 2 yards per out run. That is third in the

77:00NFL. The other avenue here is that Oello Witherspoon broke his clavicle last week >> for the Rams. He's on IR now. With

77:07Witherspoon on the field last year in these two matchups, uh AJ Brown only caught four of 10 targets for 54 yards.

77:14With Witherspoon off the field, he caught all four of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. The last time we

77:20saw Arthur Juan Brown step on a football field with Emanuel Forbes as a locked in quarterback, he had 175 yards. I don't

77:28think we're getting that. But maybe if we just need Emanuel Forbes to un awaken the beast one more time.

77:35>> Please awaken the beast. What was the book he was reading last year? Inner greatness.

77:39>> Inner Yeah, inner greatness.

77:40>> Inner excellence. I Yeah, it's Read it.

77:43It's time for a reread. AJ, >> dude, eight targets last week for 27 yards. He's every He has 7.4 airs per

77:50target.

77:52>> Come on.

77:53>> It's such a boring >> Yeah. 0.58 yards per route run so far.

77:59>> Um I will say that the so week one Brown had a 3% targets per route run. He was at 30% last week. Devonte Smith was at

78:109% in week one, 23% last week. Um so I that's where you want if you're going to be like completely failing, at least be

78:19failing with targets. It was it was especially egregious when they weren't even able to throw to AJ Brown in week one. So, yeah, him waking up here would

78:28be awesome. I do worry about volume though in this game where, you know, I think the Rams could could lean on the

78:34run. They're going to have issues protecting Stafford. We're going to see drives stall out, you know, kind of punts, game slowing down that way. And

78:43then the Rams not so great against the run. um teams have a minus 6% passover expected against them which you know

78:51it's only two matchups that might not mean much but we know that the Eagles do want to run uh and this is not a match

78:58up that's going to push them off that so Barkley this you know want to talk about someone coming to life Barkley has not

79:04he's he's running back 30 in rush yards over expected per game he's uh running back 24 in breakaway yards per game but

79:11he has a 47% success rate which is awesome um it's running back 11, but like over the course of the year that

79:17that would be running back one probably.

79:20And uh you know that I think what that tells you, right, is like they're still turning out positive gains with Saquon

79:27Barkley. If that keeps happening, he's going to start breaking big runs again.

79:30Maybe not quite like last year, but >> it's going to happen. So this is a spot I think kind of like JT where

79:36>> you could just see easily Barkley kind of coming to life. And it's easier to see with JT who just did it last week to

79:43an extent. But this is a this could be like an eruption game for Barkley.

79:47>> Well, if you just look at the two games that Barkley played last year, you're going to feel really bad about just

79:52putting him in the lineup. So, I mean, you did 60 touches against these guy. 30 touches each game in each game against

79:58the Rams. Uh 302 yards and 232 yards.

80:02Seems pretty good to have two games against 500 yards for running back. His four his four touchdowns against the Rams were 70 72 62 and 78. So you do

80:12need those to have you obviously can't have 300 yards and the awful bunch of four yard runs. So um but >> yeah,

80:19>> but the one thing too is like he's run into a heavy box 50% of the time. It's a 10% higher rate than last year. But the

80:25while that sounds negative, the other thing is like Adrien Peterson made his career off this is that if you do play

80:31heavy boxes and you get to the second level, there's no one there.

80:35>> You're gone.

80:36like there's no one there. There's like if So that's the one gift in the curse of playing the heavy box against the

80:40Eagles is if Saquon gets the second level like it's it's a house call. So you always have that kind of in the back

80:48too like they're going to load the box.

80:49That also isn't as much as a negative as sometimes people say because that's how you get explosives.

80:55This is like a super deep cut, but back in the day I uh I got excited about Bishop Sanki when he was coming out as a

81:01rookie and like probably his like only like legit cool highlight in from college, which should have been a red flag, is that he had like it was

81:09probably like fourth and one and I don't think I knew the context of the play at the time, but it was like they just

81:15completely stack the box. He goes up, he makes one guy miss and then he like runs for the So if Bishop if Bishop Sanki can

81:21rip off long touchdowns with the with stack box, anybody can. And uh we saw we saw Barkley do that >> a ton last year. Like that was kind of

81:28the issue with like okay we're gonna take we're going to take Barkley away.

81:31It's like oh are you you're stacking the box but then he makes the dude miss and now there's no one that can catch him.

81:38It's over. He's just running for a really long touchdown. So you kind of last year they had these teams where it's like okay well you know are you

81:45just going to let Barkley like consistently turn out positive gains or are you going to come down and try to stop those? But then you set yourself up

81:52up for the the huge explosives. Um, so that actually might be cool if they if they try to do that. I'll take some more

81:59inconsistency if you give me the the long runs again.

82:02>> Yeah, this is this is a game I'll probably stack still, but it's would be like a small field single entry. Uh, and

82:07then just try to hope that we get those runouts for the big Eagles guys because I have no I know the floors for the Rams

82:12guys are there.

82:14This is one where like if I'm if I'm doing lineups and like Adams makes sense solo, I'm like cool, we're puka solo. I

82:22think to me it's like the those two pieces I don't need this game to go nuts. I just need like they can

82:28consolidate target so much they can get in the end zone. Um and you know I think I think like when things are going right

82:35for the Rams it could look awesome.

82:37You'll see them on Red Zone and like think like, "Oh, Rams, they're going to give the Eagles a game here and then you

82:41it's like no, they lost 24 or 17 and it was like never really that close." Um, but there were some fun moments. Uh,

82:48Jets at Buccaneers, Justin Fields is out with a concussion. He's also awful last week. Tyrod Taylor is taking over. Uh, what are your thoughts on this game?

82:59>> Just pain, just misery. This game's gonna It's I mean, you've got Tyrod stepping in. We've got potentially the Buccaneers missing four linemen too like

83:09Michael Jordan >> four now.

83:10>> Well, Michael Jordan didn't practice yet and I was waiting. I haven't seen yet today. He's their left guard. Well, we

83:15already know Worfs is out. They declared him out and he wasn't going to play anyways. But >> on injured reserve.

83:20>> Yeah, Luke Gagi's out. He was put on they put Cody Mock on IR. Um yeah, it's just it's just really hard because this

83:28Tampa Bay offense because this would be a spot where you would say like yeah, home favorite Bucky Irving, right? like easy, like pencil it in. And the the

83:37state of the offensive line >> just gives you a lot of pause. Also, like the Jets are coming off of a game

83:42where they just got waxed. Like they probably it's like, you know, it's always one of these spots where it tends to get overvalued the next week. Like

83:49when a team just gets destroyed like because we saw them fight in week one.

83:53>> So they probably have a little more fight in them this week. I would have been all in on Bucky Irving it wasn't

83:58for all these injuries, but like it I I just have some pause there. Also, Rashad White like did play well last week and

84:04like >> and got that touchdown late which was annoying and and one of those ones where they like they called a timeout and then

84:10White was on the field and then they came back and White was still on the field. It's like I hate that. That's not

84:15good.

84:15>> Yeah. And I wonder if they were because Bucky actually caught three passes that drive, but uh White kind of made like

84:21that uh saving play where he recovered that fumble where he recovered that fumble and it was like >> he also got I think he was the one who

84:26had to run down to the end zone.

84:28>> Yeah, he did.

84:28>> Yeah. Okay. Uh but yeah, I mean I think outside like there's just not a lot to love here I think from like a fantasy

84:35stance because the Bucks haven't really been a good offense even though they've won games and Baker still has like the high touchdown rate. He's thrown for

84:41under six yards per pass attempt in both games. They're 23rd in yards per play.

84:45They're missing basically their entire offensive line. Mike Evans is going to get shadowed by Sauce Gardner. So maybe that opens up some for for Ibuka if you

84:52want to keep running that out. And then you just have the Garrett Wilson high target share which you're going to keep

84:57plugging away, right? like you're just gonna keep just you're just just gonna keep towing the line.

85:02>> Yeah, I I think I I'll say for Mike Evans um he he has a 30% target share.

85:09He has a 24% targets per outr run which would have tied Drake London, you know, if he kept that up for the season would

85:15have tied the number one first target rate from last year that Drake London had. Uh 25% targets per out run. Very

85:22strong. He has a 5.6 yards per target.

85:24That's 4% not 4% four yards below expected for his 13.8 ADOT yards per target. Not super sticky. That's something where we do see that you know

85:35swing around. We want the targets >> per target efficiency is you know you kind of get some positive aggression potential here with him running super

85:44super cold with that 5.6 yards per target. So, you know, betting on him just like getting the targets and then yes, you are without a ton of offensive

85:53linemen, but you're going against a Jets pass rush that's 27th in pressure rate, 25th in quick pressure rate. Uh not a

86:01very imposing uh pass rush here, and they're they're okay in coverage, but not amazing. So, um yeah, he's getting Gardner, but uh I I still kind of like

86:12Evans a little, especially from a reddraft perspective. I think, you know, kind of keeping the faith with, not overthinking it. Like, I think he's a

86:18wide receiver one here. Like, I I'm plugging him in my lineups. Um, not my favorite game environment by any means, but I I think like the Ibuka hype and

86:29the touchdowns and and then Evans's poor yards per target. I think people are missing how awesome his role is in this

86:35new offense. Uh Bree Hall is the if you want to talk DFS, I think Breece Hall is actually the guy I'm most interested in

86:43where Mason's going to catch a ton of ownership rightfully 5400 on DraftKings.

86:48Um he's good chalk there. I think he's a you know I I'll have him in lineups for sure.

86:53>> Walker we might get. Uh, I haven't seen >> Yeah, I was trying to find something on that, but you know, they're West Coast,

86:58so >> yeah, I don't think we have that yet.

87:01But if if Charbanet DMP DMP doesn't get into practice today, then then it'll be Walker and uh with the backfield to

87:08himself, he's 5,800 on DraftKings. Um, and then Hall's 6,000. Like he's gonna if if we get Walker and Mason, he's going to be like 1%.

87:15>> Oh, he's going to be Yeah, absolutely.

87:17Absolutely. Yeah, >> especially after last week because you know people like us talk some people are going, "Oh, you guys told me played

87:24Reese Hall and he was terrible and >> he's terrible."

87:27>> Oh, he's not getting played.

87:28>> I'm going back if if we especially if we get Walker. I think I would probably pivot off Walker and go to Hall for 200

87:36more with just like no ownership. Um he has a 52% success rate this year, uh which is awesome as a runner. Uh he's

87:44been he's been explosive. his 2.14 yards per route run, been explosive as a runner as well. Uh Brilen Allen barely played last week. He had a 19% snap

87:53share, 10% of team attempts. Isaiah Davis got used in kind of that garbage time role, but Hall's snap share went up

88:00from 58% to 64%. Um his routes went up from 32% to 45%, held an 11% target share in both games.

88:09I think like pretty quickly they're realizing like, oh, one of these guys sucks and one of these guys is good.

88:15Yes.

88:16>> And um they just got shellacked last week. They've got the backup quarterback in here now. I think we're going to get

88:22plenty of breeze. And if the Bucks >> Tyrod and Tyrod's live like it's not like >> Yeah.

88:28>> One, he's going to be able to run the offense the way they pro like it's and he, you know, he can throw. He can still

88:33throw too. He's he's viable, too, if you needed a body. like he last time we seen him he averaged 17 points per game uh

88:40over his complete games with the Giants.

88:44>> I I mean his ceiling is obviously lower than than what Fields has when he's cooking, but like the floor that Fields gave you last

88:52week is that's you I mean Tyrod can be bad, but it's hard to be that bad. Uh >> he could be okay for Garrett Wilson,

88:59too. Like absolutely. Like I actually probably think he's safer.

89:04Uh yeah. I mean, you're saying Tyrod makes Wilson safer?

89:09>> Yes. Yeah.

89:10>> This this, by the way, was Justin Field's efficiency. Uh 92nd percentile success to 98 percentile.

89:16>> Second and first, >> he literally went from the highest EPA per drop back of his career in week one to the lowest in week two. Like it was

89:27>> the highs and the lows. Yeah.

89:28>> Just completely. Just completely just was that all right, cool jack.

89:33>> But yeah. No, I think Wilson I mean Wilson's role is is absurd. Um >> they're crazy.

89:39>> I'll pull up his profile I have from the walkthrough. It's like >> it's uh it's just nuts.

89:46>> He's also moving around more, too. I mean, he's played 41% of his snaps in the slot, which gives you access to some

89:52better targets, too. So, I mean, I'm not playing him in DFS or anything. I'm just trying to make the bull case like you

89:57saying like, "Hey, I uh it was so bad last week. I want to bench him." I don't think you do that.

90:02>> No, you don't do that. uh he he has a 41% target share and better chance at like at least competent quarterback

90:09play. So, correct. I think you keep the faith >> with Garrett Wilson. I'm a little bit like he he strikes me as somewhere like

90:16I don't know he's like winning me a GPP.

90:19>> Uh but he's going to get fed. So, um yeah, I'm definitely playing Wilson.

90:26Kind of a you know, solid wide receiver too type. I I think uh the the rest of I mean there's nothing in

90:36the rest of the passing game. Um >> and yeah, I think Bucky Irving like Bucky Irving I think is still an RB1 in

90:43reddraft. I I would I wanted to be excited about him in DFS this week.

90:48>> Uh and I'm not. And it looks like he might even catch some ownership, but um maybe not. Like I guess he could be an

90:55under the radar play if we do get Walker because I think he'd be like the first guy people completely cut out. You'd go

91:00to Taylor, you'd go to McCaffrey on the expensive end, you go to Robinson >> and then you don't you don't play Bucky

91:07um if you have like a cheaper option in in Walker.

91:10>> So, right, >> I think Bucky could be like super super lowowned and like they they had the you know these injuries popped up during the

91:18game last week and he still ran pretty well. So, um I don't know. You bet on talent with Bucky potentially.

91:26>> Yeah. I mean, they're going to it's just Yeah, this game could also just be lower volume and just one that's just not fun.

91:32But I like I I think the Jets are going to be pretty competent here. I still at least be more competent than the week

91:38ago, which is a low bar, but >> it's a very very low bar, but but we'll take it. Um, speaking of guys cratering in

91:47efficiency, uh, Gino Smith had the similar type of crater.

91:52>> Yep.

91:53>> To Justin Fields went from 88th to seventh in EPA per play. Uh, not not a fun experience. Bowers was practicing

92:02this week after only getting one practice in last week. So, you know, him being a lot healthier would be would be

92:08really really nice. Um, he was clearly not 100% last week. And Carol made some comments after the game that was basically like, "Yeah, we just have it

92:16to have him out there type of stuff."

92:18Uh, Meyers is going to project really well. Um, and and I think it makes sense, but uh, you know, with Bowowers

92:28maybe taking a step forward that like where you at on that? You think Bowowers is ready to be the number one here or is

92:33it kind of Myers for now?

92:35>> Um, I I would still lean towards Myers, but I'm interested in Bowowers a little bit. I'm interested in this game as a

92:40little small stack early on because the one thing we really haven't touched on as we go over these games from like the

92:44DFS side is this is like our first like game theory slate because we are Cowboys Bears is going to be so popular.

92:50>> Yeah. And the way to play slates like this, and obviously uh we'll have different pivots at four because we also

92:56have four four o'clock games and all the ownership's really kind of centering around one game is you can take these shots on guys that are going to be lower

93:03owned at one:00 and if they hit you then can eat more chalk and if they don't like you can kind of pivot and make your

93:11make your moves, right? So, there's a lot of these there's a lot of guys in these one:00 games, especially a couple

93:16in these games we haven't even touched on yet, that I'm looking at for like runners and to do some things at one and

93:21if they hit, then it's going to dictate the way I play like the afternoon and what I'm going to do in terms of

93:25adjustments because we haven't had that type of slate yet through the first two weeks of the season where we've only had

93:30the three one uh three late games each week and then the ownership hasn't really gone to any of those games. Um

93:36because week one it was supposed to be Packers Lions and it never really got there in terms of ownership and last

93:42week Eagles Chiefs was the popular game for the NFL. No one cared about really for DFS. This is the opposite this week

93:48where Bears Cowboys is literally everyone is gravitating around that game right now.

93:53>> Yeah. And you can play from both sides.

93:55So it's like it's I mean and you can like legitimately play I think both side Dunay is so cheap and Moors is playable

94:03and I think this is it. we'll get.

94:05>> But this is one of the games I think that offers like >> I'm not like onslaughting this game, but this game has pieces in it that I'm

94:12interested in early. Bowowers being one because I don't think it's going to end up being a payup tight end week and you

94:18know Bowowers ends up playing really well in the early games, you know, Washington. They haven't been good um against tight ends to open the year. He

94:27was still on the field for 85% of the dropbacks. Also, I think stylistically, the way the Raiders want to play their

94:32offense is just a terrible spot to the way Jesse Mter wants to play defense for the Chargers. Like, they want to give up

94:39really no explosives and you push ball.

94:41Like, dude, Gino threw the ball away in a fourth down on Monday night. Like, >> that was so frustrating, man.

94:47>> Like, what the hell, man? Like, what the hell?

94:49>> He's been in the league way too long to be doing that. Yeah, but they they're an offense from I think their signal is

94:54they want a big game hunt though and I think they're going to have a spot here to be able to do that and Myers you just

95:00get he has double digit targets in each game and they can't run the ball yet. So like and we'll see like if that

95:06eventually comes out but like I wrote about this when Genty got drafted about the state of their offensive line. He has 30 handoffs, right? 30 carries right

95:13now and 20 of them he's been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. Some of those are his own fault, but also like

95:19you you you're not getting any push.

95:21They didn't have any push in week one in positive game script. Like they're right now, at least the way they're set up is

95:26to throw the football and their road dogs. So Myers and Bowers, I'm interested. And then dude, like I Mariota like I'm sure he'll end up being

95:35like the cash game guy now. But uh this dude had more points per drop back than Lamar Jackson last year in the small

95:42very small sample we've seen him. Like the offense doesn't have to change. Is that right?

95:46>> Yes, dude. He played so he he had uh he came in the the first time he came in was against the Panthers where Jaden had

95:53the broke the rib injury and then he finished QB8 in scoring that game. He had 19.6 fantasy points. Then in week

96:0018, Daniel sat sat out the second half.

96:04Marot only played 55% of the snaps and scored 26 fantasy points. Um he ran 18 times for 92 yards and a touchdown. He

96:12threw for nine yard like this offense is made for him too. like it's this is like what we did. And if you go back to even

96:18the the Falcons and Raiders time, he has like a a 15 game sample where he's played over 30% of the snaps and he's at

96:25like 16 fantasy points per game. So like it's the Raiders haven't been as bad as we thought they would be over here, but

96:31like this is kind of a really good spot.

96:33They have the rest advantage. He can run. He's he's like the archetype of quarterback we want. Um, and uh, then I

96:40think this is the spot too where Terry McLaren it's like finally lines up for him this week to have kind of a little

96:45bit of a breakout. Uh, remember last year this time?

96:49>> Yeah, I'm Yeah, I kind of the way I'm looking at this >> he only had 39 yards through two weeks

96:54last year, too. So, it's like not thing.

96:56We knew he had to hold out. He's still on the field a ton. He's get he's on the field 94% of drop backs. He's still 23%

97:02of the targets. Uh Debo's a factor here, but because I don't think we can roll over the complete Mariota splits, but

97:09Mariota targeted McLaren on 33% of his routes on his drop backs last year and he had just under four yards per out run

97:16with Mariota. I don't think we're going to get that because now Debo is involved. But structurally, where McLaren gets his targets is where the

97:23Raiders have been bad to open the year.

97:25But right now, >> just to receivers alone, they're 22nd in yards for target to receivers, 24th in touchdown rate. where they struggled is

97:32the downfield throws. That's McLaren's specialty, right? Where the first two weeks really kind of lined up for Debo.

97:39We talked about Debo in week one against the Giants being uh potentially in a good spot. And then last week on

97:45Thursday against the Packers was a Debo game because the Packers don't give up anything downfield and they have a good pass rush. Uh so it's like I didn't

97:52expect McCorm to do well. Now we've got a Raiders team that doesn't necessarily rush the passer. Well, they've allowed a 60% completion rate on throws 20 yards

98:00or further to to wide receivers. That's 25th. We saw Kahan Booty in week one get them for 100. Uh Quinton Johnson at the

98:0760ard touchdown on Monday night. So, I kind of like this as the the little McLaren spot here. He's he's one of the

98:13guys I'm going to be peppering in uh into tournaments at the one in the one:00 spot. And if he doesn't, I I've

98:19got to play other guys outside the Cowboys games.

98:24I I was my read on it was that I was kind of excited about him if Daniels was able to play but not so excited about

98:31him with Mariota just so that you know the downgrade in quarterback play but then Debo actually kind of popping potentially given the Echoer stuff like

98:40how do they replace it could totally happen >> could be Debo so but that is interesting just the downfield nature of the matchup

98:48um potentially helping um Raiders have been decent against the run we we probably see Jakory Kroski Merritt get the uh the lead back role here, but it's

98:57a little bit hard. Like it wouldn't shock me if it was kind of a three-way split still with McNichols, Rodriguez, and JCM. But

99:03>> and you have Debo still >> and the Debo. Yeah. Um but I think you know JCM I'm going to in rece.

99:16>> Oh my god. Remember when it was Chase Edmonds versus James Connor? And and now and now like Connor's still the starter

99:23there. Chase Edmonds is signing.

99:25>> I didn't think about it. Edmonds had to be on Edmonds. Was he on the um the Cliff Cardinals? He had to have been

99:34right. That must have been. Yep. Yeah, he was 20. Yeah, he was there 29. He was there. Yeah. So that's why.

99:39>> Yeah.

99:40>> Yeah. And then he went to the Dolphins.

99:42>> They were like, "Who should we call?"

99:43And Cliff was like, "I know a guy. I know a guy.

99:47>> I know a guy. He's not doing nothing.

99:49He's available. Like, you know, like you ever see the movie? You've probably seen the movie Major League, I'm assuming.

99:53And like he's like, you know, I got a guy on the other line about some white walls. Like, it's like that the same

99:59thing with with Chase Edmonds. Cliff's like, I got a guy like >> he's not other teams calling him. He might have stuff going on. It's not

100:06over.

100:07>> What do you think Chase Edwards was doing like when he got the call? Like, >> dude, I don't know. He maybe like made

100:12himself a nice little lunch, you know?

100:14It's like having a nice little day.

100:18>> Uh, I guess I'm going to play. Hey, babe.

100:20>> I'm going to be a running back again.

100:22>> Going back.

100:24>> I'm going back.

100:25>> Yeah. Cliff calls.

100:27>> Um, all right. Let's uh I think Are we Are we done on this game? I think we're done.

100:33>> Yeah. Yeah, I think so.

100:34>> Um, >> all right. Let's go to the Texans at Jags. This is a game where uh Jags offensive line been better than

100:42expected. Um but they've got uh one of their lineman's out. Uh guard Cleveland might be out backto-back DMPS. I didn't

100:52see what he did today yet, but uh that's not great. Um the rest of the line looks pretty good though. Uh and then you're

101:03going up against a truly elite pass rush. So, it's like, hey, you guys have been playing a little bit over your

101:09heads. That's cool. Congrats.

101:11>> You're probably going to get exposed, though. Um Texans pass rush is awesome.

101:17Just, you know, they're popping in the numbers. You look at the individual players, they look great. You know, the expectation was that they're going to be

101:23great. Uh this is a really, really difficult test for the Jaguars. But I do I view it a little bit like the Rams

101:29where I think like when things are going well, they might go kind of well. And um it's a little bit like the what the case

101:36I was making with Mike Evans where you have that super low yards per target.

101:40It's even lower for Brian Thomas. Uh he's got the wrist injury. He's going to play. His yards per yards per target is

101:483.3. That's 13th percentile. He has a 14.2 AOT. That's 78th percentile. when guys are running this far down the field and they're getting targeted uh with at

101:59a 24% clip on the routes and 26% of the team targets like you just cannot sustain >> a 3.3 yards per target. It will get

102:06better at some point. Um >> we promised >> we promise and I think it could be this week. I just don't know like the game

102:14environment here not not great. I think uh the Jaguars are still probably going to look frustrating. people are going to be talking about Lawrence being a bust

102:23in this system and just, you know, never being any anyone we can count on. I think that's probably the narrative coming out of this. But maybe Thomas

102:30revives himself a little bit. And I could honestly see Hunter, depending on how many routes he runs, being interesting here, too, is kind of the

102:36more shallow guy. Um, he's got an eight out of just 6.5. And if you're trying to beat the pass rush, quick passes to

102:43Hunter would make a lot of sense.

102:45>> I wouldn't play them together. I'm not like stacking this, but >> Oh, no.

102:49>> Yeah.

102:49>> Yeah. My I was always gravitated towards the Jaguars in the offseason like in terms of builds for like the later round

102:54guys because of these two matchups, right? Okay, we're opening Carolina Cincinnati. I was like, I'll just see what happens with some of these pieces

103:01and then we'll try to figure it out the rest of the way. But now the the test comes and to see what we really have

103:07here because right now Trevor Lawrence the least pressured quarterback in the NFL, but the two teams he faced outside of facing the Jaguars also didn't get

103:15pressure those other games either.

103:17>> Right. So, right, >> they're going to get heat here. Texans are what, fourth in pressure rate, ninth in blitz rate. Uh, and also, even those

103:24two teams that he's faced, when they have blitzed him, he's only completed 58% of his passes uh for 6.8 yards or

103:30passets, 22nd and 20th. So, I do think we start to see this offense maybe not look as good uh as it did for stretches

103:38of weeks one and two. They have at least had spurts each week where you're like, this could work out. Um, and that's the

103:44only thing that gives me pause of like going in on like the full bounceback for like a BTJ. But we know it's going to

103:50get better. I hope they move him into the slot more in this matchup, too, because the Texans are just so good

103:55against outside receivers and they rolled that over in weeks one and two uh as well. We've always like to attack them through the slot. So hopefully uh

104:03Liam Cohen is uh sharp about that and getting him matched up in the slot more this this week.

104:08>> That would be nice. Yeah, it's it's a bad matchup. It's more just like when you look at Brian Thomas' profile, it's

104:13just a >> Oh yeah.

104:15>> positive regression candidate. Um >> Mhm.

104:17>> This game environment though could be kind of bad. There's some bad game environments in week one or in the early

104:23window of this uh of the one:00s is what I meant. Um because the Jaguars defense looks like kind of okay. Uh they're um

104:32they're seventh in DVOA right now, eighth in passing DVOA, sixth in EPL or dropback. They're eighth in drop back success rate against. Uh they're fifth

104:40in pass rush win rate. Uh they got some dudes um in, you know, as pass rushers.

104:47And then you get this this Texans offensive line that absolutely stinks.

104:51They're 29th in pressure rate.

104:53>> Um they can't get anything going. Their run game stinks. Um like they knew about Mixon's foot. Like this this is they had

105:01so much time to prepare. They had like they knew in July. How did they how is the plan Nick Chub and then we'll like

105:09work in more Woody Marks over time?

105:10That's an insane plan.

105:13>> I mean, the offensive line, the the building of this offensive line was an insane plan, too, when you knew obviously when you trade tonsil. Um

105:20because remember, not only did they not use any of their high draft picks on offensive linemen, the receivers they take, they're now

105:28also not playing like the receivers they use those draft picks on, they didn't play those guys either. So, it's just been

105:35>> they're playing Justin Watson.

105:37>> Justin Watson is 50% round participation.

105:39>> The roster construction and the deployment of said roster construction through two week or through two weeks in the offseason is crazy because you trade

105:46tonsil and you cut Shagmason. There was internal stuff that happened there behind closed doors where there was like a mutiny between in like the offensive

105:52line meetings and stuff. But you also don't replace those guys. You literally just bring in a bunch of castoffs like Lake and Tomlinson and Ed Ingram and

105:59Trent Brown and Cam Robinson and you just like hope it's like literally the rest of develop meme where it's just like it hasn't worked out for any of

106:07these other people but maybe maybe it'll work out for us >> somehow delude themselves. Yeah.

106:12>> And you look and it's exactly playing out like as it we thought it would be on paper and that and and on top of it

106:18you're just running a lot of 11 personnel not giving any help to these bad offensive linemen. You have no run game to speak of to like insulate or do

106:26anything creative because you we talked about it with Drake May in like week one when you're forced into these scripts.

106:32You can't do anything creative right now. CJ Strad pre- snap motion rate of 31%. It was his first two years in the

106:40NFL. 55.6% 59 a.5%. They have an 11.8% play action rate right now. Come on. Uh CJ Strad, his first two years in the

106:49NFL, even this is PFF Bobby, who everyone hated. His first two years in the NFL, 23.6% and 26 and a half%. So

106:56more it's been cut in half. Uh also, he's been stuck in the shotgun for 70% of his drop backs. So he's just static

107:02shotgunning behind a bad offensive line.

107:05Uh it's just hard to run offense like that in today's NFL. Like that's like that just plays into the hands of

107:11everything the defense wants that every defense in the NFL is trying to do top down.

107:16The other thing is that they're minus 5% pass rate over expected on first and 10 against the Rams and then drops to

107:23minus3% last week on first and 10. That's you like okay, you know, if this was the Colts and you got Jonathan Taylor like

107:34okay, you know, that's one thing. If you're if you're the Eagles, you got Barkley and and the offensive line. You have Nick Chub and a horrible offensive

107:42line and you're just straight up wasting first downs where they don't know you're going to throw. So you you go, "Let's

107:48run at a really high rate when they don't know what we're going to do and then let's get in the shotgun and let

107:54everybody know we're going to pass behind this terrible offensive line and not do any kind of trickery." It's It's bad. I Nick Kayley first time OC. It It

108:02doesn't look good through two weeks. I kind of want to do a draft next year. uh like you know deep maybe this is like a

108:10like a May June type of thing where we we draft the teams that we're gonna make fun of in November and December like who

108:20are we going to be like what are they doing because it's so easy to be optimistic in the summer but there were

108:26so many signs with this team like they don't they're and this was a little bit later but they're like they're bringing

108:31in okay they brought in Nick Chub and they Mixon's clearly not healthy and They why haven't they replaced Tonsel and why did they get rid of Tonsel? Why

108:40couldn't they have worked that out? Like >> this there were a lot of red flags here in retrospect.

108:47>> Yes, >> it looks like >> quite quite a bit. Yes. That are played out and uh I had some optimism not for

108:53their offensive line or run game, but I had some optimism for Kaylee just because you know where he comes from.

108:59Yeah, it's you know the Yeah. So I had some optimism in that capacity and just nothing creative, nothing optimal.

109:05They're just doing any everything. so suboptimal. It's a pulling teeth. The like the one thing you can say about CJ Stout is he's running a lot more because

109:12he has to literally has to run.

109:15>> Right. Right.

109:16>> It's like the Mahomes thing. Like Mahomes has to run right now because it's the only thing that the offense can

109:20do. And that's like kind of where the Texans are. Like CJ Strads had some good scrambles since like all their best

109:25plays outside of the touchdown run were it sounded like after the game too the Buccaneers let Nick Chub score on that

109:30touch that play like the >> Yeah, I think they did. I mean I >> to get the ball back like they they

109:36basically said like the word was like kind of like we just wanted them to score as fast as possible.

109:42>> I mean it's it's galbrain because you could have stopped they had three timeouts so you could have stopped them.

109:46They kick a field goal, you get the ball back and then you don't have to you just drive down for a I think it would have

109:51been a game-winning field goal.

109:53>> Yes.

109:53>> Um >> but if they get a first down then the game's almost over because they can they can bleed.

110:00>> They run it all the way down. They run it all the way down >> and you never get the ball back. So, I I

110:05kind of like it.

110:05>> It seemed like it seemed like all the commentary like was kind of staying like it was like they like they let him

110:10score.

110:11>> I included a a two uh two tweets about it. One from Rick Straoud when the quote from from BS was I don't think it

110:19matters we won the game. So, he refused to say. And then there's a there's a very funny clip of Antoine Winfield uh

110:27where he just like is laughing and it's like he's like, "Yeah, no, it was a great run, man. It was a great run."

110:32Like they they let him score. I'm convinced now.

110:35>> I'm I'm also convinced.

110:37>> What if they let him score again, Rich?

110:39Is that >> That's how we That's how Nick Chub gets there. This is how we win.

110:44>> Everybody lets him score.

110:47>> What if we just >> He's a great guy. People love Nick Chub.

110:49Just love him.

110:50>> They do love him. They do love him.

110:52>> Um >> I still have some mild interest as a as Nico as a wer here as much talked about it being terrible.

110:59>> Yeah, I mean he's kind of the uh the Brian Thomas thing where he's got a 5.5 yards per target. That's 3.3 yards below

111:08expected. Uh he's a 29% target share.

111:12>> So, you know, kind of classic positive aggression candidate where you get in the targets, not getting the efficiency.

111:18Uh at some point it'll click. He's by far. I mean, he's got to be helped.

111:22>> He's he's not clamoring for them to take Xavier Hudson and and uh Justin off the field. It's helping his target

111:28competition quite a bit.

111:30>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's he's had a good history obviously, which doesn't matter, but three of us through over 100 yards

111:36three of the past four against the Jaguars. And the one thing the Jaguars have done so far is kind of allowed some

111:42receiver production through the two games. They T should have had a big game in week one. Again, the horseshoe hand grenades receiver. Maybe he always will

111:50be, but uh they had injury to Jiren Jones which forced Hunter to play more defense, but Tyson Campbell's already allowed two touchdowns. Uh Jordan Lewis

111:58has already allowed seven catches two games. So maybe if there was, it's a step of faith, like I said, to even play

112:03anyone in this offense. But uh again, I'm looking for like these guys in these 1 PM games that maybe offer like the 20

112:10to 30 point outcome. And I still think Collins does fit that profile that if he breaks, so be it. I go in another, you

112:17know, it's the thing. you go in a different direction.

112:20>> Any interest in ETN here? Because the Texans have not been good against the run. They're actually success rate.

112:25>> We thought they'd be better. Um I I have mild interest. It's one of the ones too that he got there. Like the fact that

112:33Tuton was already getting like red zone touches. uh very bullish kind of signal in week two cuz we thought he was going

112:39to be the guy that take over most of the tank biggsy runs but we the fact that they were coming calling screens cuz

112:45that's a Liam Cohen special is using your running backs in the receiving game in the red zone like he's done this

112:50always he did it with uh Ray Davis at Kentucky a ton he did it with the Bucks obviously last year a ton and to see

112:56already in week two those both those guys get screen pass touchdowns in the red zone it's like oh this is going to

113:01be a thing here again like this is what he does so and to one of those was pretty pretty awesome to see.

113:08>> I did enjoy that.

113:09>> Yeah. So, just a little >> but 66% snaps for ETN last week. That's up one.

113:15>> Yeah. He's clearly still the guy here for for this week. I think Tutin like I have a decent monetary investment in the

113:23idea that Toutin will take this job over the course of the year. But, uh but I think for this week, ETN's more than

113:29safe. Um.

113:30>> Mhm. Mhm.

113:31>> So, you know, I guess it wouldn't shock me if like Tutin had 40% of the attempts. He had 30% last week. Um, and

113:37that would obviously hurt ETN, but this is kind of a good matchup. Um, or at least potentially a good matchup. And

113:44then you look at the game environment.

113:46Like I think the J the Jags have been looking to play uh looking to kind of run the ball from ahead so far.

113:51>> Yeah. And like I said, their defense is better than we expected and the Texans offensive line and all the stuff going

113:58on there is more disastrous than we were hoping. So, uh, this could be a spot where the the Jaguars are able to kind

114:05of run the ball and um and feed uh ETN and Tooten a little bit. So, >> yep.

114:11>> I think ETN's definitely he's he's like an interesting reddraft guy for sure.

114:14And I don't think off the radar for DFS.

114:16I mean, he wouldn't he be kind of one of these like super lowowned one:00 plays?

114:20>> Oh, yeah. he's not going to be popular uh on this slate in particular just because of the price point where he's at

114:26and especially like you brought up the Walker stuff. Like anytime you get those two guys kind of priced in that same

114:31zone, people are just going to have blinders for some of the other guys.

114:34>> Yeah.

114:34>> That were and we're going to talk about a couple of receivers probably too because like that's going to happen with

114:38Rome this week, you know, is where Rome's pricing there's some receivers around him that could still be good this week, but everyone's just gonna have

114:45Rome blinders.

114:48Yeah, David as a as a pivot. I I prefer Hall to ETM, but I think ETM like if you want to

114:53>> I would also% >> I would also prefer Hall >> but but it's he fits in the same profile >> 100%. Um all right, Broncos at Chargers.

115:05I feel like we haven't talked about a game that I thought could be like legitimately fun for a while. I think

115:09this game could be legitimately fun.

115:11>> We're about to close strong.

115:13>> We're gonna close strong. Yeah. Four o'clock window. Stick with us. um for the for the third hour of the pot. Um

115:19the uh we're we're almost doing this in real time where it would now be the four o'clock window on Sunday. Um

115:30the uh the Chargers side of this I I'll kind of kick that off. I The Broncos defense is good. The pass rush is really

115:40good. They're second in uh quick pressure rate. They're first in pressure rate. They're first in blitz rate. Like they're they're gonna create some

115:49problems here for the Chargers. But the Chargers have a very good offensive line. Joe Alt has been awesome. Even without Rashawn Slater, the line has

115:57performed really well so far. They they're used to getting blitz. They have the fifth highest blitz rate against.

116:02Herbert has been very good against the Blitz. Um they're they're ninth in preventing pressure. They're eighth in preventing quick pressure. Uh, so this

116:10is an offensive line I think will hold up reasonably well. And then the Broncos, they're 26th in coverage grade.

116:17They actually have allowed some plays downfield.

116:21And uh, we have the Chargers obviously with the pass rate over expected stuff looking >> pretty bullish. But >> the thing the thing is, right, like it's

116:30overexpected. So 14% over expected, 13% over expected. What's expected?

116:36the lowest pass rate in the expected pass rate in the league. They they have a 51% expected pass rate. That's 3%

116:43below the Packers who are at 54% as the second lowest. So they have a 65% pass rate this year, the Chargers. That's

116:5215th in the NFL. So it's not particularly high because they haven't been one of these game environments where they actually get pushed. Like

117:00>> what if they have a 65% expected pass rate and this keeps up? Are we are we talking about them throwing nearly 80%

117:06of the time or at least like 75% of the time that that's the potential that we get if this stuff is real and they're

117:14actually in a fun game environment. So, yes, the the the matchup gets tough here, but maybe you have Bo Knicks pushing on the other side of this game a

117:23little bit and uh them actually having to pass where, you know, when you look at the way the Broncos are going to

117:30approach this, they've been committed to the pass. Uh Knicks had a much better week two than week one. Uh the Chargers

117:37pass rush is is not been strong. They they've been very good in coverage, but they they have not been strong as a pass

117:44rush. and the Broncos offensive line is awesome. So, you might have a clean Knicks here even if he's, you know, got

117:49a difficult secondary to work against.

117:51Um, we could have him looking looking pretty strong here. And Shawn Payeyton willing to pass where they've had 65% and 62% pass rate over the first two

118:00weeks, which have been well above expected. Uh, they they had just a 58% expected pass rate in week one. Uh, so

118:077% above expected there. And they were 5% above expected in week two against the Colts. So offenses pushing each other, right? Like defensive matchups

118:16matter, but we also want offenses who can push each other. Not a lot to happen here given that, you know, both defenses

118:22are good, but um this is one of this is like the late window game that's not the game. We'll get to that.

118:29>> But this is this is one of those like pivot off the the Cowboys Bears, come here. And there could actually be like a

118:36lot of fantasy goodness in this game.

118:38Maybe a bounceback spot for Lad Mani. Um um the Broncos stuff is obviously harder to chase, but but I think specifically

118:45playing it through the Chargers side here and betting on this passive expected stuff to be to be real and betting on the the Broncos defense to be

118:52good, but not someone we have to avoid.

118:55>> Yeah, 100%. I mean, the Broncos, as good as their defense is, and we respect them, we've seen this now, multiple

119:00examples where they can be pushed into these high tempmpo games. Obviously, we had the game last week that that got there. Um, and then you go back to last

119:09year, they when they faced teams that, you know, necessarily couldn't run the football, but had really high aggressive pass rates, they would play in these

119:17shootouts. Joe Burrow, the Joe Burrow game. Obviously, uh, we had that. We had the Jameus Winston Monday night game, uh, where the Broncos got pushed into a

119:25shootout. And we had this same matchup, the last time these teams played in Los Angeles was 61 combined points, uh, 34

119:32to 27, uh, Chargers game where both teams went over 350 yards of offense. Uh so they as good as the Broncos defense

119:39is like yes we have that here like we have a potential still for this game to have a really good run out be

119:45highscoring have touchdowns scored u because if we just come into that late game slate and that Cowboys game is the only game that pops everyone's going to

119:54have those guys. So, we're gonna have to find some find some pivots, especially if your one o'clock players did not do

119:59good um that you need to come off of that offer some upside or you just want to get away from that game. Uh if you're

120:05building like, you know, late game slates as well. So, yeah, I love that. I love uh and I love the fact that right

120:11now >> that's a great call. The late the this is an interesting late slate >> type of type of approach because that I

120:18mean god the the Cowboys Bears are going to be chalky on the main slate late slate is just going to soak up a ton of

120:24>> Yeah. Yeah, I love playing those two. I don't don't ignore those gamers uh last week. Uh our guy that we talked about,

120:30uh Taekquin got me there uh late in a late game lineup. Uh yeah, uh Mahomes missed him on that one where he was like

120:37uncovered and I was dying inside. I was like, "You got to be kidding me, Mahomes." And then he hit the one and we

120:42got back. So, I was happy. But the the reason we like the the Chargers here is because right now they're having a lot

120:48of trouble running the football. And if this game is gonna get there and because remember when they played last year too

120:54like this is this they they caught the Broncos with an iteration where they weren't running the football well at that time too and they and Herbert threw

121:02the ball really well in that game over nine yards for pass attempt two touchdowns absolutely cooked Vance Joseph when he tried to blitz a little

121:09bit in that game and Vance Joseph just called off the dogs. Um, so if they're not going to be running the football,

121:15they're going to be throwing the football. We know and we have Patrick Certan kind of locking around Quinton Johnson for most part like we know we

121:23can just play it through literally Herbert Keenan Allen and Lad Maki like to me like it's it's pretty clean like what to do like with the if you want to

121:31come and just do if you're if you had Dak Stacks or Caleb Stacks to just turn them into Herbert.

121:36>> There's no tight end. Yes, there's no tight end. And the kicker is these guys played on Monday night. So their pricing

121:43was already set. Like Keenan Allen's 4,700 on DraftKings. Like >> that is, >> you know, like the So the like it works

121:51out really well. And then I think you can try to whack them a Denver guy if you want. It is a lot harder. Like you

121:56said, >> it's hard.

121:57>> It is very hard because all we have is a cheapy is the Troy is a chase the Troy Franklin stuff. And we've been down this

122:03road before. But I do think it's a little different for Troy Franklin because it's a constant ramp. It's been a constant drum beat ramp up. Like they

122:10talked about him in the preseason and they were >> they traded Vle like it's it's things have happened. Like it's not just talk.

122:17>> They talked about him in the preseason.

122:18He played well. They trade vele. Week one he comes out and plays more snaps than Marvin Mims. Then in week two he

122:23literally has the high highest route participation of any non-Cortland Sutton wide receiver over the past two years.

122:30Now, the one thing that we have to put at least in some question is the target share stuff because the target share

122:35also came in a game where Portland Sutton had no targets.

122:38>> Yeah.

122:38>> You know, like that's not also going to happen. Like we need I'll fully believe in a game where Troy Franklin gets

122:45targets alongside Courtland Sutton getting targets. And we could have that here. Like that could exist. But it is harder to chase flying blind uh because

122:54Courtland Sutton also had no it would have been a lot easier if Courtland Sutton had a eight target game last week

122:58and Franklin had his target share. But the fact that Court had no really no targets is like all right well how many

123:04weeks is that going to happen?

123:06>> He also saw four screen targets last week.

123:09>> Yeah.

123:09>> Which is like >> which you will have in this offense anyways because that's what they do.

123:13>> Yeah. But but that's like a game plan. I joke that maybe he's the Joker. He's in the Joker role. Everyone's the Joker.

123:20That's Sean Payton's true joke is everyone's the Joker.

123:25>> Yeah. So, I mean, you know, four four screens. He might be, but um his first read stuff was like whatever 11% in week

123:34one jumps to 14% in week two. If you add in the four screens, it jumps to, you know, screens plus first reads, he was

123:40at 29%. So, like they very clearly were trying to get him the ball, but they're trying to get him the ball in like this

123:45specific design touch way, which really might be game game plan related and and would be the type of thing that potentially would not translate uh the

123:55next week. And and Courtland Sutton, he had a 16% first rate target rate week one, 17% in week two. So, you know,

124:04didn't do anything with his targets in week two and didn't have any other targets. He just had a 17% target run

124:10overall week two. So, uh, not obviously a great week for Courtland Sutton, but like not the type of thing where I'm

124:16like, "Oh, he's dead. He's out of the offense." Like, >> no, he had a higher first target rate than than Franklin in in both weeks. So,

124:23>> it's it's the type of thing where I'd prefer to see it again. It'd be We talk about like the late slate. That might be

124:29where I would I would play Franklin in in the late slate. I think in a main slate, it's it's a little thin.

124:34>> Oh, yeah. Um, >> but uh he's more like in reddraft or you know Yeah, like if you're like I mean

124:42you probably don't need to think about it would be a deeper league. Maybe the Scott Fishbowl, you know, if you got him

124:47and uh floating on your bench, you could throw him in there. It have to be pretty deep league. But >> yeah,

124:51>> it's definitely more like I'm like, "Okay, this was cool. Let's let's see let's see if it can build from here."

124:58>> Because he's done it to us so many times. like Bay last year he had a game I think where he ran 80% of the routes

125:03and you're like oh can we pick up Bele and he could be a weekly starter and you're like hell no that didn't happen

125:08and then Mims started to do it and then it's like you're like well it's cool that Mims keeps scoring a long touchdown

125:13every week you know so it's a we've been here Shawn Payeyton's definitely Lucy Lucy just pulled the football on us many

125:20times >> and on the other side it's like like you're saying Allen Allen's gonna have some ownership but still a strong play

125:27um and then Herbert Maki It's just it's just an easy double stack. Move on with your life. I I don't I don't think I'm

125:33going to waste the brain power on trying to figure out Denver here >> 100%.

125:38>> Um >> they did run like a a nonbackfield split last week. I mean, we're not getting to Dobbins probably unless it's like a 4pm

125:44only because he's not running any pass routes.

125:46>> Uh he has to get a touchdown. But last week was like a the first week it was like kind of a 50/50 to open the game

125:52and then Dobbins was the closer. Like in week two it was just Dobbins to open as as the as the guy.

125:59I I know that the success rate on Harvey is 27%. It's that's that's real bad. Um and uh Dobbins is at 36% which is also

126:09bad. And he was he was uh inconsistent for the Chargers. He had just a 34% success rate.

126:14>> Coaches really care about this stuff. I think like you're you're not turning out positive gains in the run game. They

126:20they don't like that. That's kind of the point of the run game in a lot of ways.

126:23And uh you know, Dobbins is kind of this like more boom bust runner. Harvey's like a more extreme version of that

126:30right now, which I don't think helps in the short term. It could help in the long term because if he's if he's more

126:35successful, like if he gets the success rate stuff sorted, then you just have then you're just Dobbins with more juice, which is how you just take the

126:43job. But this week, I think it it'll it'll continue to be Dobbins until we get more consistency from Harvey. And then and then Tyler Bedet still had 22%

126:51of snaps this week. still.

126:53>> He's a thorn, man.

126:55>> Yeah, >> it's it's uh >> it's Yeah, the Denver side like through and through. I I think you could play

127:01Dobbins as kind of like an RB3 trying to get a touchdown in reddraft and that's about the extent of my interest. Knicks,

127:07I guess like this could be a good game for Knicks. You know, if you're not so worried about the stacking stuff,

127:13>> it's a pretty good spot for Knicks. I could see him producing.

127:16>> Yeah, I mean, if you just don't have the salary to swap from Dak or Caleb and you don't want to go to M. Jones and you

127:22probably don't even have a salary in that stance to even get the Kyler. You might have to do Bo in that st just to

127:29just to do something different and hope you get some rushing and you don't try to guess the touchdowns, right?

127:34>> Yeah. Yeah.

127:36>> Yeah. Because Herbert and Kyler are more expensive than both Dak and uh Kayla, but Bo Nicks is right in between them.

127:45>> So, >> and like Naked B isn't isn't crazy, you know? He he can run, he can scramble.

127:49>> Oh, yeah. Absolutely not. It just saves you the the heartache of you pick a guy and he's not the guy.

127:55>> Yeah, it's it's Bo Bow and May. I'm like, you're you're >> Yeah, Drake. He is. Yeah, >> I'm noting you.

128:01>> Drake May adjacent.

128:03>> Yeah. Um Saint Seahawks. This is Do we do we have the news yet? Do we want >> I just checked and uh uh Zack Shar is

128:12doubtful to practice. So I'm going to assume that that Yep. Zack Zack Shar doubtful to practice. I've been checking as we were approaching it to see if

128:20there's anything lit new and he's doubtful practice.

128:22>> All right. Well, let's cover it as as uh this is going to be a Kenneth Walker.

128:27>> Yeah.

128:27>> Polo game then. He's going to be big time owned in DFS. Uh 5800. Um he's ob, you know, he slots right in kind of I I

128:36would say he's to me he's probably like a high-end RB2 in reddraft as opposed to like an RB1, but I guess I could be

128:42talked off that.

128:43>> Um >> it's close enough though to where it's that area. Yeah, it's that area like would you play him or Kirn?

128:51>> Probably Walker.

128:52>> Would you play him or Chimera?

128:55>> Oh, uh, full PP I could be swayed in the Camaro a little bit, but I guess we're going to talk about that, but uh,

129:00probably still walk. I think it's a spot where you're just a seven-point home favorite. Uh, it's just you just do it.

129:05You just play it play the dude.

129:08>> Uh, any interest in George Hooney here as a as the as the new starter?

129:15>> Who knows, man? He'll probably get some touches. Uh but this is this was this is honestly as good of a run out you could

129:21hope from the week one disaster for Kenneth Walker that like cuz just going from week one to being explosive in week

129:27two and then now Zack Sharp is hurt in week three like this is cuz week one if you had Kenneth Walker you felt terrible

129:35>> really bad. I I think it's even better like the fact that his snaps fell in week to in week two. He went from 40% to

129:4335%.

129:45That is now bullish because it created this like huge backlash to the coaching staff. Like you idiots like given his performance like how and then Sharon's

129:53on a per attempt basis. Kenneth Walker was literally RB1 last week in rush yards over expected per attempt and Sharon was dead last. Like they could

130:02not have been any more polar. He's failed to gain yards, period. Gain any yards on 37% of his runs. It's the

130:10highest rate >> in the league.

130:12>> So bad.

130:14>> And the other thing that Walker has going for him is what we talked about Barkley. The Seahawks are number one in

130:19running back runs against heavy boxes, but Charburn is he's like a he's a dude that gets you consistent runs and he's

130:26not he wasn't even doing that for two weeks, but he's never like the pullaway guy where Walker is the pullaway guy

130:31because he had four runs of double digit yards last week. He's the guy that beats the stack box.

130:36>> Now, he'll also have six runs in a row where he'll lose yards, but that seventh run might be the 35 yard.

130:45>> Yeah, it's sort of like I understand the idea of like Kenneth Walker is a little boom bust and we're sick of it. But like

130:51to then put Charbanet in as the lead guy when he has a 23% success rate, it's like he's worse, guys. Like Walker's at

131:0039%. It's fine. you know, >> I saw some stuff that he was uh that he was that they just loved his pass

131:06protection.

131:07>> That's what was like creating the difference. But it's like, okay, well, you don't have to hand it off to him

131:11then. Like, there's plenty of >> Daria Goombal is a pretty good pass protector, too. He doesn't start. What are you guys doing?

131:20>> Right. It's just like, yeah.

131:22>> So, I feel like it's a spot to not overthink it really that much. Even if you're even if you're a Walker

131:27detractor, I think it's just like, come on. It's seven.

131:31>> I'm a little bit of a Walker detractor on that. I think when people get really excited about how good Walker is, I'm

131:37kind of like >> fair.

131:38>> He's He's good. He's not amazing, >> but you know, I don't think he's bad. I think the stuff of them playing

131:45Charbanet was ridiculous. I also kind of thought it was like a little funny because I thought Walker was overdrafted and I didn't I didn't take a ton of

131:51them, but it was obviously dumb. Um, they shouldn't have been doing it and and now they won't be. So, yeah. I mean,

131:58I think you're right. Um, I just I just moved him up to running back 14 uh in the in the ranks here. I'll obviously be

132:06be revisiting that, but yeah, kind of the high-end RB2 in between Chimera and Kairen for me.

132:12>> I mean, here's here's the the fun one. I mean, you playing Kenneth Walker or Chase Brown.

132:18>> See, I think I would play Chase Brown.

132:21He's >> he's running back one, I think, in in team attempt share. Like, he's still getting all of it. Uh, I know the the

132:28targets aren't quite as good as we were hoping, but yeah, he he's got a 91% and 94% carry share through two weeks and

132:37then 14% and 7% target share. So, that's not nothing.

132:40>> Uh, and then, like I said, I think we we could see them lean on the run a little bit. Um,

132:46but I don't know. I I was looking at some stuff. I think I might be like a little bit higher on on Brown than

132:53Consensus is just like a bet on the roll. Yeah, we didn't really we didn't really talk about him.

132:59>> Yeah. Uh, >> but again, I just like Yeah, I just feel like when you have one of these spots where it's like

133:05running back getting a lot of touches as a huge home favorite, it's always just one of those. Yeah, just do the thing.

133:11Just do the thing.

133:13>> Yeah. No, I'm with you. I'm with you.

133:15>> Um, >> keep playing JSN, too. Just keep doing that.

133:20Well, JSN, I mean, uh, this was the one of the funny things. He, you know, um, I've noted that he was puka, uh, kind of

133:29like a puka type of role. I think Scott Barretts talked about him in kind of a puka type of role.

133:34Cup obviously coming from the Rams and now he's getting the leftovers that are gigantic leftovers. He had 21% first target rate last week, 29% targets per

133:43hour, and 3.21 yards per hour. And this is Cup.

133:45>> Um, so he's getting the like >> the like, oh my god, the great great role. Andrew the number two kind of

133:50stuff that that Adams has right now. Um it's just that this team doesn't pass.

133:55Uh and and so my worry here for JSN would be that you know you don't have to pass on the Saints and they've had 51%

134:04and 55% pass rates >> over the last two weeks.

134:08>> Uh they were at minus4% pass rate expected in week one.

134:11>> They were at minus 1% last week. So maybe their their goal is basically to like pass about half the time and

134:18they're going to do that regardless of the game script. Um but they're not going to it it was nice to see they

134:23didn't like pass like 40% of the time last week at least with the with the more neutral game script. But >> either way, we're not going to see a ton

134:30of passing volume in most of their games. And this is a game where >> they could they could dominate and they

134:36could do it with a with a heavy dose of the run. I mean, Walker being out, let's be honest, helps them. Like, Walker is better than

134:44Charban. So, if you're going to run a bunch and now it has to all be Walker because you can't use Charbanet like

134:50that. You're getting saved from yourself a little bit, aren't you?

134:53>> Yeah. You're not giving bad as many bad handoffs, at least through the what the sample we have this season.

134:59>> Yeah. So, Saints aren't terrible against the run. They're worse against the pass, but I I I'm betting more on the

135:04philosophy here. I mean, Mike McDonald fired his OC for passing too much and brought in um brought in Clint because he he runs the ball a ton. So, like this

135:13is they're going to run they're gonna run a bunch.

135:17>> Yeah. And this is a spot too where the Saints have been putting up some fight, but this is their their first road game.

135:22It's, you know, they're going to Seattle. It's tough. So, I've been optimistic that at least they're losing with like the way we care about for

135:31fantasy because like they're keeping like the games relevant. But, uh, this is a spot where I could see them kind of

135:36maybe getting blown out. Like it maybe could be a spot where like they just not are as competitive. But you, you know,

135:42Jawan Johnson still like we talked about last week like these guys that just run all the routes at tight end and he's not

135:48even priced up yet. Like he's still they're they're lagging like on his opportunity like because it's not just he's running all the routes. He's also

135:55he his target share is good while running a lot of routes and he's got the red zone and endzone targets. He kind of

136:01has it all like right now. So, like it's another one of these things.

136:04>> He's a tight end one.

136:05>> Yeah. Like it's I don't even think it's like clo like he's way underpriced still for where he's at on both sides. Um and

136:13then Seattle hasn't particularly been great against tight ends, you know, through two games either.

136:19>> Yeah. Uh I I think he's he's a pretty clear-cut um target here. People are like Yeah. not fully baking in how

136:28strong it's been for him. Um, I would also note that Chris Olive ran 100% >> 100% of the routes last week. Uh, 25%

136:39targets per out run, 30% in week one.

136:41Another one of these guys, yards per target of 4.7.

136:45Uh, that's 3.8 below what you'd expect, but he's getting used in the slot. 40% slot rate. Um, he's an eight out of 9.8,

136:54so he's not being asked to be like a 14.

136:56Like I talked about Mike Evans and and Brian Thomas uh and Nico Collins and kind of this same role where the yards

137:03per target is bad. All those guys are downfield players and so the yards per target is like way worse than you'd

137:10expect in part because they're getting some more boom bust targets but you could really see it coming the other way. And you know a week all of a sudden

137:17their yards per target it's like 20 you know or 15 because they're they hit on some of those plays and it swings wildly

137:23the other way which is awesome. Olave is not being used so far downfield, but I think given that Rattler is his

137:29quarterback, good. You know, give me the and sure he's his yards per target when you get to the end is probably going to

137:35be worse than you'd expect just given the depth of his targets because he's got >> Spencer Rattler as his quarterback. I

137:41understand that, but this is still way way below what you would expect for his yards per target, his 22nd percentile yards per target. Um, that's not going

137:50to hold. So his his his 1.3 yards per hour run very much understates his role in the offense. I think for a player

137:57this talented with this role, you'd be kind of looking at like probably 1.8 1.9 yards per run. Um and I think he he gets

138:04back to that at some point. So uh kind of a keep the faith guy right now. I think he's still probably more of a wide

138:11receiver three than wide receiver two, but um >> yeah, full PPR guy, >> you know. Yeah, full PPR reddraft type of type of keep the faith, keep them in

138:19your lineup, I think. Yeah, Devin Witherspoon looks like he's also going to miss the Seattle slot quarterback.

138:24Maybe it helps him just continue to just again do like the six for 50, seven for 60 type thing kind of uh the poor man.

138:32Is it Is it crazy? It's like Jacobe Myers now. It's like Chris Lav Jacobe Myers.

138:37>> Dude, that's wild. I think you're right.

138:40I think it's Jacobe Myers.

138:43>> It's like kind of what he's doing. He's doing like he's doing like the Jacobe Myers bit, right? like that.

138:47>> Yeah, she's moving around. They use >> target share, getting the slots up, but not really getting downfield targets, but getting double digit targets a game.

138:55>> Yeah, they're not gonna not gonna have any touchdowns because those will go to Jawan Johnson, >> but he I guess.

139:01>> Uh yeah, I like it. Um all right, let's save the Cowboys game for the end so we can end on a high note. Uh,

139:09>> I just say too, yeah, Kamara, uh, Seattle's been awful against running backs the first two games, so like full PPR, he has a little bit of juice, too.

139:17>> Also, I did this whole thing where I was like after week one, >> I was like, you know, Kell Moore,

139:23it might seem weird to us not to use Alvin Chimera as a as a receiving back, but look at the EPA. Like, he he's like

139:30sucking value out of this offense when you when you throw it to him. He's a from a value from a real life

139:36perspective like this dude has not been good like it's he has washed in all senses um they should not be throwing to

139:43him and you know good on them smarter them to only give him a 5% target share and he was up to 18% last week

139:50>> and they weren't good he only had 21 yards and fumbled >> yeah so I don't know I mean I you know I

139:56probably got too excited about he's probably still in the same scammy >> you look right still though because six catches for 21 yards What?

140:03>> Well, I'm right that it's dumb, but I'm I was wrong that it would stop.

140:06>> Oh, that Yeah, that would just go away.

140:07Yeah, sure.

140:08>> I was like, look, it's going away like it should. And then it did not at all.

140:12>> Um, so I've got Camaro on some eliminator teams, though, so it's fine.

140:17>> Uh, please scam and keep me alive. Uh, the Cardinals and 49ers. Uh, anything jump out to you about this game?

140:27>> Yeah, a couple things. This game, I think, offers a lot of isolated pivots, too. uh that stood out to me when I

140:33wrote up this game. Uh definitely the first one was Kyler Murray uh who's had pretty two nondescript games and I think

140:41people look at the two games against Carolina and the Saints and they're just like ah just as un it's just uninspiring, right? Like you know we're

140:49going to wash our hands with the Kyler experience. I actually I felt that way too, like watching those games. And then

140:55when I came away to write up this game, I came out way more bullish as him potentially being a guy that you could

141:01maybe pivot to or look at in these four o'clock games. Uh because it's very similar to why people want to play Caleb

141:07Williams, right? Like, but so you brought this up last week and I was kind of like, I'm going to give it one more

141:13week about the Arizona running game and they can't run the football right now.

141:17And it's very interesting because the Cowboys can run the football and they hired Clayton Adams and Clayton Adams left the Cardinals and it's like, man,

141:23it's very rudimentary. There's definitely more to it than this, but it's like, oh man, like the Clayton Adams departure actually like have an

141:29impact on this run game. They're actually very pass heavy too in neutral game scripts that I didn't notice like because it's just sample of one in week

141:37one and now we got a two game sample.

141:38But >> they have a 67% drop back rate in the first half of games. sixth in the NFL >> and and uh it goes to 21 or it goes to

141:4621st in the NFL, 54.9% in the second half because they just haven't played anybody like they weren't pushed in either game uh against the Saints or the

141:55uh the Panthers. Uh so it's like man, all right, so they want to throw the ball, they can't run the ball. And then

142:01I'm also looking at this, I'm like, right now Kyler Murray has a career-high scramble rate as well. It's 10.4%. He said this offseason he was going to rug.

142:12He was like, I'm going to run more. And I'm like, wow, if they're going to drop back more and be pushed because they're

142:17road dogs here, Kyler is running more than ever, like, is this a spot he could hit? Then I uncovered one more nugget.

142:24In in five career games against Robert Solid defenses, Kyler's run for 58 yards per game with four touchdowns.

142:31>> He averages he averages 24 fantasy points per game against Robert Solid defenses in better versions than the one this current one is. And I was like,

142:40man, like Kyler actually I came in I was like like you don't see like the pre like sometimes you do a walkthrough

142:45probably and you're writing a player and like you kind of have an idea where it's going to go and sometimes it just goes

142:49in a different direction. That was >> this is one of my favorite things about doing it where I'm like I >> I could write this up in my sleep and

142:55then I go to like do all the stuff and I'm like >> none of this is what I thought it would

142:59be.

143:00>> That was me because like if I wasn't racing I would totally look at Kyler's first two games and be like Panthers

143:05Saints didn't give us nothing. There's no way he's giving us anything here. And as I uncovered, I'm like, man, they're probably gonna have more dropbacks,

143:11which means more running. He's also run all over. He's run a lot in this matchup. Anyways, uh yeah. So, it's like, man, like I came away like a

143:19little bit more optimistic on Kyler through definitely probably more through his legs than through uh him throwing the ball, but I still think it's uh you

143:27have the opportunity to stack him too as well. They're trying stuff with Marvin Harrison. it's not necessarily clicking.

143:33But then Trey McBride, no one's going to want to click Trey McBride because no one plays guys against the 49ers.

143:39>> And in his three games against the 49ers, granted, we still have to do a thing where he just he has no

143:43touchdowns, but he's got 11, 11, and nine targets in this matchup.

143:47>> Like he dude, they he gets the ball still. He gets the ball.

143:52>> Yeah. And the looking at the uh 49ers on defense, they have their their linebackers cover really well. their their safeties, their quarterbacks are

144:02all looking pretty weak right now. And uh you look at what the way Kyler has passed thus far, he's he's got a 2.55

144:12time to throw um he's not been super aggressive. Uh, so part of me I'm like, is this a spot where Kyler, who's who's

144:22had just a a 6% deep pass rate, and um his average throw is traveling three yards short of the sticks, which is

144:29super conservative. So, it's like this quick, you know, get the ball out really quickly, get it out pretty shallow, not taking a lot of shots. If he's

144:37scrambling around, if he's running around a little bit more, we could we could also see more downfield passing.

144:42That's where this defense looks kind of vulnerable actually. Um, and then the 49ers, they've had uh a 57% pass rate against them with minus 11% over

144:53expected. So, so you're like, oh, maybe this is like kind of a run funnel, but they played the Seahawks and the Saints.

145:00>> And I think that's probably because the Seahawks and the Saints don't want to have to pass a ton. Um, and and if

145:05you're going to let them run, they will.

145:06But if the Cardinals want to pass on this defense, they might be kind of able to expose the 49ers a little bit here.

145:11here. I think the 49ers might be a much weaker pass defense >> than the numbers show through two weeks.

145:17Yeah. And >> uh I actually am kind of interested. I don't know. It maybe like this would be this would be like pivot or late game

145:25slate stuff, >> but I I'm going back to Marvin Harrison, I think, here. You know, I think he's like a low on wide receiver too in

145:32reddraft. Like I would break ties to Harris. I think he's I think his upside here like his his targets look weak. you know, uh, 16% targets per

145:40out run, 10% first target rate. Those are weak numbers, but Kyler's not throwing deep. Kyler's throwing quickly.

145:48Like, that's not how you emphasize. They unfortunately, like, I wish his role was better. I wish they they were using him

145:53more creatively.

145:54>> They're trying very small things, but it's just it's not, you know, he's just he's also just not going to turn a dom

146:01on Ros.

146:03>> No, no, no, no, no. But it's more like a Dunay, right? Where it's like if you're attacking downfield, he could go off

146:09that way. And I I think that's kind of the spot. You're hoping he you get kind of an adun type >> game out of Harrison. I I think there's

146:15a pretty decent chance of that. And then >> you can always get touch the one thing that is still true with him is the

146:21touchdown equity stuff is still real. He has two end zone targets. He's got an endzone target in both games. Uh so like

146:27you know that that exists, the touchdown equity >> and Kyler missed him on that that throw that would have been a super long

146:32touchdown in week one. like he it it could be better. Um McBride's obviously always an awesome play, but I I think

146:39this is uh >> Mhm.

146:42>> like relative to the starts, this feels like a Harrison setup to me. Um McBride's still the number one in the

146:48offense, though. He's got a 30% target share. Uh he's run the most routes at tight end. He's absolutely he's clearly the tight end this week with Bowowers

146:56not 100%.

146:57>> And uh pretty nice DFS play as well. Um although I wonder if people maybe it will become a pay up a tight end week if

147:04if everyone can save salary with with uh with Walker now and >> Mason.

147:09>> I mean maybe it's we're still going to have uh >> it Jan and um Jake Ferguson are going to be real popular.

147:18>> Well Musgrave's 2700.

147:20>> Oh yeah. He'll be punt well people will be punting with him too.

147:22>> People just punt. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but anyway, I so tough to say exactly how pan owners play, >> but yeah, I like that. And then we and

147:31it's cool about the Cardinals, too, is we don't have to worry about anyone else.

147:34>> No, including the running backs because because Ben was playing.

147:38>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean I you tried to talk me off that too and I was like I want to give it one more week cuz he was you

147:43know I was like oh in week one Connor like absorbed the D Marcato stuff and was still running a lot of routes and

147:49then that went away last week and it was like all right so now you had two great matchups against the Saints and

147:55Panthers. you didn't hit. He he did get the touchdown deodorant in both games, but I mean he right now he's got 28

148:00touches for 96 yards through two games in matchups where we wanted to attack and >> yeah, >> I just think and like maybe they just

148:08aren't running the football well as good this year and like said that maybe that played a role into why they're throwing

148:12earlier in these games. So if they're not going to be able to run the football effectively, that kind of pushes just

148:17more of the passing game. So >> 100% >> that's the way I I was looking at it.

148:22>> Anything on the 49ers side?

148:25>> Yeah. I mean, yeah, again, lots of stuff. I think uh with the receivers because well, I think Jennings is a

148:31really good like core play. Anyways, I think it's been kind of proven now that Jennings is the foxhole guy in this

148:37offense. Um he just gets to he just gets to run more, you know, floor saving routes than than Ricky Perol, but I am

148:43going to get to Paw second because I actually think he's very >> he's the number one, right?

148:47>> Yeah, he's he's just he's just the number one. He's running stuff. So we now have a 47 route sample this year

148:53where he and Pearaw have been on the field together at the same time without George KD and Jennings is 13 targets and

149:00Paw is six. Um >> and this is goes back to last year.

149:06>> Nice.

149:07>> It's he's getting used downfield.

149:09>> Yeah. Oh, that's why I want Yeah, because I want to get to to touch on him for a second because I actually think he

149:14in a tournament play is very interesting in this game especially because he's priced right near Rome who's gonna be popular. uh is because now that we

149:22started to see like maybe it settle a little bit and we know that what Jennings and Pieraw are playing, we got

149:26we got kind of see like the routes they're running and like the way they're utilized and it gives Jennings a higher

149:31target share and it makes his floor better. But also, I don't want to say like Paw is like bad now either. And I

149:38feel like that's where we're kind of like it it started to pick up steam like that at at the end of last week. But

149:43this is a guy who still had 100 yards in week one is still averaging 21 yards per catch. Uh, and like to me that offers

149:50upside in this specific matchup because he's running all like the routes early career Brandon Iayuk would run where like people would get mad at like IU

149:58because they'd be like, "Oh, he's only get six targets." And then he'd somehow get 100 yards or like 85 yards and two

150:02touchdowns. And like people would be like, "Well, we can't play him because he's not getting any targets." Like that's what Pier is doing right now is

150:0818 yards per target, high like the targets he's getting like carry a lot of fantasy fat. It's why he leads the team

150:14in air yards. And that specifically matters for this individual matchup. Uh because he doesn't uncover against man coverage. That's like the one thing even

150:24going to like the beat reporters this summer. It's like, oh man, like he doesn't get over man's coverage. Well, the Cardinals don't really run any man

150:30coverage. Pier has been targeted on 20% of his routes compared to 9% against man coverage. But it also matters this matchup because those deep posts and

150:37those deep ends, like those are the zone beaters in the Shanahan offense. like th those are the ones where you get like

150:43the big gains and the chunk gains. And if you look at Brandon, I don't want to do a one to one Paw versus Brandon. I

150:49think Brandon's a better receiver than than Ricky Pieraw, but the top three yardage gains for Brandon Aayuk in his career, two of them came against a

150:56Jonathan Ganon defense. Like he's getting these those plays get dialed up against this scheme, this defensive scheme. So, I don't want to ignore him

151:05because he didn't run out have the run out at more at a a higher ownership rate last week. then he's then people are

151:12like, "Ah, it's just Jennings." Now, I still think there's some upside for him, especially with the types of targets he gets in this particular matchup.

151:20>> So, Jennings was a DNP both uh Wednesday and Thursday. I haven't seen anything for him today.

151:26>> They said last Wednesday, but like >> Okay.

151:30>> Yeah, I guess that's something to keep an eye on. Um, you guys listening will know more than we do now, but

151:37>> um, you know, it's like one of those things where cuz it was a new injury. Is it like the ankle and then the shoulder?

151:43So, like he was up to 91% route participation Jennings last week. Uh, Pawol was at 93%. Those those guys are both locked in. But it's possible. You

151:53know, Jennings was only at 67%.

151:56We'll see. It is possible he's banged up again and and that hurts him.

151:59>> Yeah, it could be him. And then Pearl, I mean, he definitely does have that ceiling you're talking about. I mean,

152:06>> I just he's he he's not practicing today.

152:09>> Okay.

152:11I don't know that people are going to like rush to play Pierol even if he's the only guy there.

152:16>> I mean, if he's definitely the only guy, I'll be back because like part of my thesis was and I w I actually lowered

152:21him by the time we got to set lineups after we did our show because Jennings practiced on when we did the show.

152:25Jennings practiced Friday and then was up because at that point when we did the show last week, Jennings hadn't practiced all week and it looked like he

152:32wasn't gonna play. Um, and that's why I was bullish on Pierce all the time and then I was like, "All right, I'm going

152:37to scale this back now uh in terms of ownership." But I'll be right back if he's the only guy if he's the

152:44Yeah. I mean, he like he has a 44% area share. That's 89th percentile. He's got a a 74th percentile whopper, which is higher than than

152:54Jennings. I mean, he's he's got a big chunk of this offense. He also has 2.19 yards per hour run, so he really hasn't

153:00been bad.

153:01>> Um, I do think Jennings is is like the safer bet for targets like we talked about.

153:06>> But yeah, there's there's upside here.

153:08Uh, if you have Pierce, say Jennings doesn't play and you have Paw and like how do you feel about when Brandon comes

153:17back, what happens to these guys?

153:19Because this also could be a spot where like you just use this as a carrot for parasol and like try to do you just try

153:25to make him >> for sure.

153:26>> Like >> Yeah, I I think you probably want to wait. I would wait until after this game because it's like I don't know. He kind

153:34>> They're not going to run a lot of 11.

153:36Like we know that.

153:38>> No, you mean when IU comes? Yeah.

153:40>> Yes. Correct. Correct. Correct.

153:41>> Yeah. I think you gota >> and then you have KD still coming back.

153:45>> Right. Right. You probably want to wait until after the game and then and then try to sell high >> something to think about though just to

153:53throw it out there. This is you know >> it is I mean if you got a real active league where people are like oh yeah

153:59give me Pierce Hall because he's the only he's the only guy this week.

154:02>> Yeah sure I would do it. Um McAffrey any worries about his rushing efficiency which has been horrendous.

154:09>> Yeah I mean I've been talking about they didn't run well when he came back last year. Um, he's made up ground just by

154:14all the receiving stuff, right? Like all the receiving work and >> 25% target share.

154:19>> And if we're not going to have Jennings here, h how has it come down, right?

154:23>> It might go up, >> right? I mean, he leads all running backs. Um, because they actually are working in the other running backs. Like

154:30in the first two weeks, he's only RB15 and RB13 in share of backfield touches.

154:35>> Like they're they're they're trying to alleviate his workload as much as possible. It's just they haven't had any pass catchers available. So, they're

154:42mixing in Robinson like in the rushing game and to get carries. But yeah, I mean this offensive line is not very

154:49good overall. Like they've got Trent Williams and a 38-year-old Trent Williams at that. But the offensive line and Dominic Pun is good, but like he

154:56hasn't been as good these opening two games as where we were last year. So maybe he he has just has some

155:01regression, but like it's not a good offensive line. They didn't run it well when he was available last year either.

155:06So, it has to be one of these things that at least exists that when this target chair is not a necessity.

155:12Is there some pullback here? But right now, he's getting so many damn touches.

155:16Like, >> PFF has him at 24.4 expected fantasy points per game.

155:22>> I mean, it's just Yeah. And because the receiving stuff's a weighted, too.

155:26>> Yeah. And Yeah. So, he's he's a smash.

155:30He also might be completely >> He's looked good as a receiver, too.

155:32Like, he ran two.

155:33>> He's still good as a receiver. Yeah.

155:35>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean he ran that the the touchdown the route he ran on the touchdown was awesome. He had another

155:39route where he motioned in the back field and just ran like a comeback like it was it was just like yeah he can do

155:45but like I do worry a little bit the rushing efficiency that that's like something we don't get back but I it

155:51also could just be a thing that is a twoame sample too like who knows >> it's tough because it's been two years

155:56now since we've seen it >> and yeah so you start to get nervous but >> like and we might just not get the

156:01explosive McAffrey plays again.

156:03>> Yeah. Yeah, talk about a potential sell high. I wouldn't do it this week. I would just keep riding the the points, but um

156:13>> there there is still like a Yeah, the underlying metrics do show some fragility here. Maybe they're just trying trying to be as cautious as

156:19possible because it warrants it. But >> yeah. No, but like the success rate's really bad. The >> they're also winning though, too. That's

156:27the other thing is when we talked everyone's talked about Nazi about this 49er schedule all offseason, right? and they they're winning games and if by the

156:35time the 49ers get Iayuk back and they get KD back and it and they're running at full steam like what if they're like

156:42eight and two or some [ __ ] like >> there's no reason there's no reason to to run him out for an 80% backfield

156:48share right >> that's an interesting take he gets worse as the offense gets better >> that tells you something

157:00>> seems Easy. But because right now they just need him as a pass like he's needed as a pass catcher.

157:05>> Yeah, he's needed >> to the degree they're running him out there as a pass catcher >> 100%.

157:09>> All right. Should we do it? Talk to the gym.

157:11>> And then we'll bring it home. We'll bring it home here.

157:13>> Yeah. Cowboys at Bears. Uh why don't you kick us off on this one?

157:19>> I mean, we got Yeah. two bad defenses. I came out of week one remember trying to say like man I hope that week one was

157:26kind of an anomaly for the Cowboys with Matt Everfloose and it was it turns out now we have a twoame sample of the

157:31Eagles just throwing these three yard passes but I was like because we need the Cowboys to start giving up explosives. I was like, we we don't want

157:39a bunch of teams. I was like, we don't want teams doing like the week one thing where it's like all these short passes

157:44and the Cowboys don't have the ball and like we want we want we want >> the Cowboys to give explosives so they

157:50get the ball back, they can create explosives, we start running like we got it like you know like it happened last

157:55week where Juan Del Robinson was creating explosives and it's like all right cool like all right I feel a lot better now about like the the potential

158:04runout for this passing game. And the crazy thing is Cowboys, they're running the ball, too. Like, and we talk about Clayton Adams, that hire of Clayton

158:10Adams because that, you know, I don't think there's a Cowboy you could tell me is not playable in this game.

158:16>> I I honestly don't think you like if you were like, I like this Cowboy >> Jaylen Tolbert.

158:21>> Well, you know, the core the core the core Cowboys.

158:24>> All the all the the big three pass catchers and >> and Javvante and Javvante.

158:29>> [ __ ] dude. He's the RB7 in uh expected points and that's >> I know >> and he's doing it not just with like the

158:38touchdown deodorant which he does have a little bit boost the touchdowns but >> um he's rushing for yards over expected at a high rate

158:48like it's >> RB10.

158:50>> Yeah, it's >> Yeah.

158:52>> Yeah. So I mean the Cowboys wheels up all the way as it pertains to like Dak I mean just the way this matchup sets up.

158:58No, Jaylen Johnson again. Right now, the Chicago Bears are the worst team against throws 10 yards or further downfield.

159:07Uh, like they're allowing a 74% completion rate on those throws.

159:13>> And that's crazy.

159:14>> The league rate is 49%.

159:16>> That's crazy.

159:18>> They're 31st in pressure rate. They're not getting any quarterback pressure.

159:22like yeah it's there's not a cowboy where you're like any core cowboy you're like yeah I want to play him I'd be like

159:29okay cool >> I mean the Cowboys last week you know they they have this Giants defensive line that's quite good uh it wasn't a

159:38huge problem for them it wasn't like Dak was constantly under pressure there there were some some plays where they got to him but I think it affected

159:44sometimes you see with these matchups like okay this this defense is good at getting pressure they don't actually generate a ton of pressure but the types

159:52of of throws change.

159:53>> Yes, that happened.

159:55>> That's what we saw where where Ferguson becomes a big priority last week. Um, and he had a shallow AOT, but he's he

160:03was at 6.3, but he had a 28% targets per route run. Cavante Turpin only runs a route on 21% of dropbacks, but he has a

160:1233% targets per route run. Kind of a big piece of that the underneath Yak stuff they were trying to do, get the ball out

160:18quickly. Um, that obviously hurt CD Lamb who only had a 20% targets per out run.

160:23Still 2.07 yards per run. Wasn't a bust of a game or anything, but not the awesome explosive game I was hoping for.

160:29And then George Pickkins is just at 1.24 yards per out run. Only had a 15% targets per out run. Both these guys ran

160:36all the routes, 95 and 96% route participation, but they just didn't get targeted at the rate that you would hope for the for the that game being really

160:43exciting. I think that changes this week. Like to me, this is a big big time spot for the downfield passing game. I

160:51think Pickkins could be the dude here.

160:54And you know, Lamb's the number one, the most likely guy. Yeah, it's most likely that Lamb just smashes. But >> from like DFS perspective and, you know,

161:03getting getting Pickins probably back into your lineup um in in reddraft, like I'm I'm very in on Pickkins here. you it's a bet on last year's kind of you

161:14know talent level profile like what sort of the returning to the the preseason prior a little bit because the the targets really haven't been there yet

161:22for for George Pickkins but like he is he is in the deep threat role he is a 14.5 AD like this is the point of George

161:30Pickins that there's no pass rush you can attack downfield and you can attack downfield there's there's a ton of weak links in the secondary in addition to

161:37the lack of a pass rush obviously we just saw the Lions completely completely light them up. I did note the only thing

161:43I I guess I'm a little bit cautious on here is that the Cowboys offensive line does not look that good. Uh Tyler Gayton

161:51is having a really rough start to the year. Um and they're like the the Bears do have like Montes Sweat

161:59>> um and uh Deo Dingbo both look okay. So, I I could see I could see uh I could see the Cowboys letting us down a little bit

162:08in terms of the the pass protection, but even then, like Javvante gets there, probably CD Lamb gets there, but but the

162:15the highest the highest upside version of this game includes Pickkins going nuts, I think.

162:22>> Yeah. I mean, there right now and it's only two games, but Bears 31st and yards are target allowed to outside wide

162:28receivers right now. It's just this would be the spot. This would be the spot where you hit a home run. you hit

162:33home d runs and I mean we could have had a couple already. Uh right now he he already has 80 yards in pass

162:39interference.

162:40>> Uh uh >> yeah that's that's a good point.

162:43>> Through two weeks he has he has he has 19% of the the NFL's pass interference yards.

162:50>> It's a kind of a fun stat they like to say like >> I like that.

162:54>> Like one player >> that's amazing.

162:56>> Yeah. One player he's drawn three three pass interferences for 80 yards so far.

163:02Wow. Wow. We We should We got to get those counting. Pass interference yard should count.

163:08>> Yeah, we got to get something.

163:10>> Listen, Scott Fish will be the one to do it. He'll be the one to add it in this league next year.

163:16>> The Scottfish stuff. I got to set my last no projected points that I'm just I'm just vibing. Hey, you play tight

163:23end.

163:23>> Yeah. The way I draft my teams there is like I don't know. What is the scoring this year?

163:30>> I like I have Harold Fannon, so I assume I'm going to win the league. That's that's >> Yes.

163:37>> Um, Bears side, this is, uh, so I I broke down some stuff on the Bears in this game and noted that, uh, this is

163:48kind of a fun write up because it like sort of started bearish and then got bullish where I was like, okay, what did

163:53Ben Johnson do last year? he had this very efficient uh quick attack, you know, quick throws, 2.5 seconds or less. Uh they were

164:03awesome last year with the Lions, they didn't actually run play action at a at a particularly high rate uh on those

164:11plays. What was happening instead is that they because they ran play action at the highest rate in the in the league, but they had a really high play

164:18action rate when on longer throws on on kind of longer developing plays. Uh and they were at 47% play action on throws

164:29of 2.5 seconds or longer. The Cardinals at 44%, the Rams at 42% were the only teams above 40. Um and the Lions were

164:36second in EPA per play on those throws.

164:40Um they were third in EPA per play on the short throws. So they were just good. But uh kind of interesting to see

164:46like low lowish 17% play action rate on those short throws, really high play action rate on the long throws. We're not seeing that in Chicago. Both that

164:55the play action rate is just lower period. They're 26% play action on the long throws. Um and the short stuff sucks right now. like it the the the EPA

165:07per play, the yards per attempt for Caleb Williams is close to the worst in the league. Um he's actually dead last

165:15in uh in yards per attempt on quick throws uh with 3.4 yards per attempt.

165:22Cam Ward is 3.8. He's the only quarterback below 4.5 other than Caleb Williams. So, not good. Um, but the long

165:33throw stuff has been okay. And although it's not kind of built into the Ben Johnson system, you're you're you're kind of incorporating the ability to hit

165:42quickly and then the play action and the the awesome run game, which they definitely don't have. None of this stuff is really coming together the way

165:48that I'm sure Ben Johnson was hoping.

165:51But this is an offense that you can freelance against and attack deep. As you mentioned, Wendell Robinson can beat these guys. like this this is a Caleb

165:59Ball type of setup.

166:01>> Like this is where we get Caleb Williams playing Caleb Williams type of football.

166:06>> The the marriage with Ben Johnson is not working. But this is he's he's just out on his own. He this he's he's getting

166:13out. He's partying. You know, Ben Ben's at home.

166:17>> This is this is Caleb Williams doing his thing. I think he could he could have a really strong game here. Obviously Roma

166:23Dunes came alive last week looking like the the number one guy. You called that out last week is a is an awesome play.

166:29Him running the big boy routes.

166:31>> Oh, thank God how this breaks out.

166:33>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

166:36>> Yeah. Thank God I was a week ahead of that, man. Him and Neighbors uh defense families saying like I literally my my

166:43three wide receiver core last week was Jamar, Chase, Neighbors, and and Rome.

166:48Like I I literally had a 100 points like of receiver points like like out of those guys. It was even with Bree Hall,

166:55it was impossible for me to lose money last week. Like it was amazing >> because those end to be my three core

166:59receivers because when Jennings got up, I kind of cut persole down. Uh so it worked out great. Uh I will say there is

167:06some signal here for DJ Moore and obviously like yeah there is a little bit of stuff here. Um well the reason

167:12you know I said one of my big signals why I was I wanted Rome was the the aggressive nature of the Lions defense.

167:18like you know the man coverage stuff looked really good and now through two games Rome has now been targeted on 47%

167:24of his routes against man coverage uh compared to 18% against zone coverage uh no team's played less man coverage by the way through two weeks than the

167:32Cowboys they just play on the soft zone no matter was special um that's the other thing good thing about Caleb too

167:38is they're just not blitzing or getting a pass rush and like that's been Caleb's ultimate undoing through two years in the NFL is like

167:44>> you put any type of pressure on him it just all falls apart so far taking sacks uh uh the low YPA stuff, all that

167:51happened. But this Cowboys defense doesn't do that. I still think you can look at Rome despite that because the Cowboys are giving up all those splash

167:58plays, right? And that's still going to be Rome. They've allowed eight receptions to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards. Like it's crazy, man.

168:06Through two weeks like the And that's with just one one of those being against the Eagles, you know, the Jan Dawson

168:11play. Um, but the the Cowboys also play they've played through two weeks the most cover two in the NFL. And the the

168:18sample we have against the cover two stuff so far for the Bears is DJ Moore actually leads the team in targets.

168:23>> So there could be a spot where this also while the the obviously Rome is still I think the alpha and he's taking that

168:30over.

168:31>> Uh and I still think he's a really good play as well, but I do think that there also could be your Caleb doubles or to

168:37play DJ Moore. this could be a spot where he actually has a really solid game too as well. Especially on DraftKings, too, where the catches mean

168:44a little bit more.

168:46>> Yeah, it's it's one of those like kind of boom bust setups for more I think from, you know, he got he didn't get

168:54fully called out, but I think he got a little called out by Ben Johnson with like the we'll see who wants to practice

168:59hard this week and you know, kind of like some hm someone seemed to quit on their routes. I wonder who that could

169:05have been. Wasn't Rome. We can rule him out.

169:09Yeah. So, I don't know. I mean, I'm that makes me a little nervous, but at the same time, those types of narratives kind of come

169:17and go pretty quickly in in in a NFL season where you're like, "Oh, this dude, you know, they they didn't like

169:22his effort level in week two." And when you're coming off week two, it's like, "Oh, that matters. That's going to be a

169:28big thing." And then, no, we immediately forget because it doesn't matter because he has a good week three and a good

169:33matchup. So, >> uh, >> and they like they need play. They need they need to play to win this game. Like

169:40they're 0 and2. Like >> Yeah. Yeah.

169:44>> Like he's just a guy like they can't afford to woodshed, right? Unless they're going to finally play Burden.

169:48But >> could they please play Burden?

169:52>> Could they play Lovelin and Burden?

169:54Could you please play the two guys use top 40 picks up?

169:57>> It's crazy. They they they like they're Lovelin's at half the routes. He has uh he had a 5% targets per out run last

170:06week. Like why?

170:09>> Held catchless.

170:11>> Yeah. Just sad, man. We want these guys to play.

170:13>> It's just sad. You got to play Cole Kit.

170:15Why?

170:16>> At first I was like, man, maybe it's cuz these guys were injured. Like these rookies are coming off of injuries. You

170:20know, Burden was hurt in the preseason, but it's like they've had all this time now to get acclimated. It's the similar

170:25thing we talked about with the Houston guys. It's like these guys should be playing by now, >> right?

170:30There's stuff that happens in the NFL where it's like clear that these guys like have a plan that they're like sticking to, but it's like a terrible

170:38dumb plan that no one should have made in the first place. And it's just like like you're not smart for sticking to

170:43your plan. Like your plan sucked and it's clear. It's evident. Everyone knows. We're all seeing how bad your plan is. Change your plan.

170:51>> Yeah, please.

170:52>> I think I I think I just talked myself out on Ben Johnson. It's taken two weeks.

171:00That's how much Luther Burton I have. I now think Ben Johnson's a donkey.

171:04>> But uh but again, there's nothing I could reiterate more about this game, though, is the game theory side of this

171:09game. This is where the ownership's going to be. Everyone's projecting to be highly owned in this game. Like even Caleb, right? Like there there people

171:16like don't even think Caleb's good and he's tracking to be like immensely popular uh on this slate. So, >> it's a great Don't do not forget because

171:23we haven't had uh slates like this.

171:26Utilize late swap this week. It's all I could if I have a parting thing to say on this show is this is a definite late

171:32swap week. Uh please utilize the late swap.

171:37>> Well, you know, you say everyone's going to be owned. We we have uh we have running backs in the mid-range

171:46opening up. I I I actually do wonder if Javvante doesn't really get that owned.

171:50I actually would he would be the one that I think probably just because again by proxy of Mason and Walker.

171:57>> Um >> let me see if there's any update on this.

172:01>> The pivot the pivot off the stack to then go to Javvante and then you stack up either Kyler or or uh or Herbert

172:12>> that seems pretty good to me as a pivot.

172:14You know if you have the nuts in in the early window I'm not doing that but >> Right. No, no. That's the way you play.

172:21If you if you are ahead of the field in in these one in the early slate, >> you could you take the chalk out, you're

172:28good to eat the chalk.

172:29>> You're plenty good. And then, you know, vice in in inverse uh if you if your warers fail, you've got to find other

172:36avenues to get points because everyone else is already getting those other points.

172:40>> Right. Right. Right.

172:42>> You need those other guys to fail.

172:45>> Yeah.

172:45>> But there's a couple for the slate.

172:48Yeah. I mean, it's everywhere >> like a Dunay. People are gonna play a Dunay. That's not gonna change. 5,300.

172:54He's the clear number one.

172:55>> People like him as a bring back. People are gonna pair him with with Williams.

172:59He's getting played.

173:00>> But like, >> yeah. I mean, Javvante, I don't know.

173:04>> Oh, and and with the running back salary, like Lamb is tracking for like >> he's tracking for over like 25% for a

173:12guy that price just because you can do it. You He's the >> That's where people will go. Yeah.

173:16Totally. Totally. Um because again we talked about the Jefferson stuff and like so it's it's going to be Lamb and Rome. So

173:23>> but that that'll keep Pickkins in check I think. I think Pickkins is another pivot.

173:27>> Yeah. Pick like I said Pickkins and DJ Moore will definitely come in lighter than the other two. Pickins I would be

173:32way more excited about because the the big play stuff >> um and and just the defense. But Javvante is a great name to remember not

173:39to overlook on the slate. We kind of talked about him but then we're just like yeah he's doing this stuff. But

173:44like I'm looking at it right now on the stuff I'm looking at and Javvantee is like sub 10%. And that's before even

173:50probably a Kenneth Walker movement. So like he looks >> you're saving $300 to go to Walker. Like that feels good.

173:57>> It Yeah, Javvante looks like a pretty good definite pivot to just play outright like in your player pool.

174:04>> Yeah, I think he gets squeezed. Um >> yeah, >> Swift not good. Losing work to a seventh round

174:13rookie. Uh, but if you're gonna play Swift, you'd kind of want it to be where they're passing a bunch because he's

174:19he's got 13% target share. He's 5600.

174:22>> Um, >> you know, I think he's kind of like a a running back three. I I think >> it's just how does he make it's just how

174:29does he make your player pull this week?

174:31Like you can make the argument like and just say like yes because we could do that anytime for a GBP guy, but like how

174:37does he make your player pull with like all the like us walking through every guy that was priced in this range?

174:41>> Yeah. Yeah. No, you're right. You're right.

174:43>> Because like we still want >> He's playable though in in reddraft.

174:46>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And um because we've talked about even the guys in his price range, but like dude, we still

174:51want to pay up for Beijing Robinson. We still want to pay up for Jonathan Taylor. Like >> I want to get those guys. So like I just

174:57don't see how Swift makes with just how he makes in into my player pool.

175:02>> I agree. Yeah. Yeah. It's like if you're not doing CD, then go go pay up for Jonathan Taylor or Bejian or Squan. Um,

175:10don't >> I'd ra Yeah. And I'd rather do that.

175:15>> Way rather do that. Yeah. All right, man. I think I think we've done it. Um, >> that's us.

175:22But, uh, >> yeah. Listen, we we we covered a lot of ground though with a lot of nuanced information. That's the way the way it

175:28goes. So, uh, appreciate everyone that and definitely shout out everyone that has given us the positive feedback these first two weeks. We do appreciate it as

175:36well because that also encourages us to keep doing this even though >> uh it's just two dudes talking for like two and a half hours about these

175:41football games. So, I appreciate it. Um >> I don't have anything cool for the worksheet this week because uh I was

175:47running around my hair on fire this morning and I forgot to like reach out for a promo code. So, I do apologize. If

175:53I do get one, maybe I can reach out to Pat to send it to Coleman and maybe put it in the YouTube description. But other

175:58than that, check out just the stuff at the at uh the site because uh uh writing up all these games. We're building up

176:04that sample, right? The the two games are now going to turn into three games and so on and so forth. And that's how

176:08you develop trends. So, please check that out.

176:11>> The trends are coming. Um all right.

176:14Yeah, check out uh check out the walkthrough over at Legendary Upside. Um and I'll be writing up the Monday game as well. If you're a Legendary Upside

176:21subscriber, uh I also narrate the article. Um, if you're listening to this, you're clearly into multiple hours of football content, which which that

176:30article becomes as well. So, uh, there's a private podcast feed. Message me at legendarysitegmail.com if you're if you need any help setting that up. Uh, one

176:38of the perks for subscribers there. But yeah, we'll be back next week. Good luck in week three. Hope to see you at the

176:45top of the leaderboards of of whatever you're playing. And, uh, good luck in your reck match ups as well. See you

176:49next week.

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