Angles and Upside Week 8 w/ Rich Hribar

A.J. Brown has been hurt by Caleb Williams' accuracy issues over the past four weeks; 26.9% of his targets have been inaccurate throws. The source explains that Brown doesn't draw many screens and free plays that come with high success rates, making him particularly vulnerable to Caleb's poor CPOE and off-target throws.

Likely out for the Eagles-Giants game; hasn't practiced all week and while not officially ruled out, the source is assuming he's gone given the Eagles have a bye in week nine.

The Saints' run game is dysfunctional; the source states 'they functionally can't run with Alvin Kamara,' citing injuries to key offensive linemen Kendry Miller and Eric McCoy that have historically crippled the Saints' rushing attack.

Caleb Williams has a 3.23 second time to throw, the slowest in the NFL, which creates a matchup consideration against the Ravens' weak pass rush; however, Williams is also the worst quarterback in terms of completion percentage versus expected (CPOE) at -10%, with the highest inaccurate throw rate, creating floor risk even in favorable spots. The source notes he's uncomfortable in rhythm and tends to hold the ball longer, averaging two to two yards less per pass attempt on plays with motion—a cheat code for most quarterbacks but a liability for him. Ben Johnson is now simplifying the offense and using more under-center play action and pre-snap motion to hide Caleb's mistakes after a month of sample showing persistent accuracy issues. This directly suppresses receiver production; 26.9% of A.J. Brown's targets over the past four weeks have been inaccurate throws.

Chuba Hubbard remains the Panthers' starting running back despite receiving a contract extension, but his role may be shifting. The source questions whether the Panthers are turning to Kenneth Walker III, suggesting potential snap count competition or a move toward a committee approach in the backfield.

Loveland is up this week with Cole Kmet trending toward being out, positioning him at a really cheap cost in a wide-open tight end week. The source identifies him as a potential beneficiary if the Bears fall into negative game script and shift to pass-heavy play. With another tight end (likely Kyle Pitts or similar) out, Loveland is in play as a DFS option; the source suggests potential stacking opportunities with the Williams side, including possible doubles with Flowers or Henry.

The source expresses difficulty getting excited about DJ Moore in the Bears offense, indicating skepticism about his fantasy upside in this matchup.

Becomes a potential double-stack target with Jalen Hurts in the Eagles-Giants game due to AJ Brown's likely absence. With the Eagles' passing game coming alive (Hurts hit big plays downfield against the Vikings despite a low blitz success rate) and the Giants secondary depleted (Ado and Holland expected out), Goedert gains target share opportunity in a favorable matchup.

Dalton Kincaid has elite per-route efficiency metrics (2.59 yards per route run, 22% targets per route run, tight end one in open score) but is severely limited by snap count and route participation. His participation has been consistently capped at 57–63% this season, and with Jackson Haw mixing in at 23% participation last week, Kincaid's ceiling is fragile despite strong production when on the field. The Bills' run-heavy game plan and preference for blocking tight ends further constrains his fantasy upside.

Identified as chalk tight end play for Week 8; the source expects high ownership and volume in a wide-open tight end slate where gamers are prioritizing running backs and Jamar Chase, pushing tight end into pay-down territory. The source states 'we're going to see a lot of Dalton Schultz' this week.

Dawson Knox posted a season-high 77% route participation last week, but this ceiling is constrained by Jackson Haw's continued involvement in the Bills' tight end rotation. Knox is unlikely to reach 80–87% participation because the Bills like Haw and will continue mixing him in, particularly for run-blocking purposes. This limits Knox's upside despite the elevated snap count.

Derrick Henry benefits from Patrick Ricard's return to the Ravens offense; last year with Ricard on the field, Henry averaged over 6 yards per carry. The Ravens are expected to deploy significantly more 21 and 22 personnel packages with Ricard back after missing the entire season. Henry is positioned to see balanced offensive usage as the Ravens likely play through the run game with Lamar Jackson still not fully cleared from injury. The source expects the Ravens to lean on Henry and maintain a balanced approach rather than force a pass-heavy game plan, especially given the Bears' weakness against the run. The source highlights Henry as underowned relative to Jonathan Taylor: 'this is a week where Henry is not going to be very popular, has a always has a high ceiling' and 'Henry stands out to me a lot uh this week.' The source is skeptical of the Bears' run defense despite recent success, noting the Saints' dysfunction and questioning whether the Bears have truly turned the corner.

Ran down the Eagles' throats in the first matchup, but the source is skeptical this repeats in the rematch because the Eagles will have Quinyon Mitchell and Jalen Carter back to improve run defense. With Jalen Carter on the field, Eagles allow 3.7 yards per carry and 1.02 yards before contact to running backs; with him off the field, those numbers jump to 4.9 yards per carry and 2.15 yards before contact. Additionally, Singletary's carry share has declined to 50% over the last three weeks, making him a box-score-chase trap for those relying on first-game performance.

Already hot with three WR1 scoring games over the past five weeks. Faces a big spot with both AJ Brown and Noah Debo out. In the previous Eagles-Giants matchup, he had an 89-yard touchdown that was wide open but was overthrown by Hurts. Since the Eagles acquired AJ Brown, Smith has run 207 routes with Brown off the field and been targeted on 28.5% of his routes with 2.51 yards per route run, firmly in WR1 usage territory. The source identifies him as a potential double-stack target with Hurts in this rematch.

Priced at $2,600 on DraftKings coming off 85% route participation in a favorable game environment; the source views him as a viable punt play at tight end. Despite only peaking at 9% target share despite high route volume (compared to Mark Andrews at 73% route participation in 12-personnel sets), the source notes that even if Likely doesn't hit, 'I don't know if it if it kills you' given the chalk is Schultz and five points from Likely might be acceptable in this wide-open tight end week.

Referenced as a chalk play that drives lineup construction strategy; gamers are prioritizing 'the two hammers at running back and Jamar Chase,' which pushes tight end into pay-down territory for DFS.

Came alive last week against the Vikings despite a low blitz success rate; hit big plays downfield, indicating the Eagles passing game is coming to life. This sets up potential double-stack opportunities with receivers against a Giants secondary missing multiple defensive backs. The source expects the Eagles to move the ball well through the air against the Giants, supporting Hurts stacks. In the first Eagles-Giants matchup, the Giants did not blitz Hurts at all and called an extremely conservative defensive game plan: they blitzed Daniel Jones 46% of the time (their highest blitz rate of the season; next closest was 28.9%), played man coverage on over 50% of snaps (next closest was 34%), and the source questions whether the Giants will feel compelled to adjust their approach in the rematch, similar to how the Ravens manufactured pass rush against their secondary.

Expected to get fed in Bills' run-heavy approach against Panthers. The source identifies Cook as a ceiling play running back that serves as a pivot off the obvious ceiling plays like Robinson and Taylor. While passing volume is limited, the Bills' game plan to get out in front and control the game should result in heavy Cook usage.

Theoretically set up for a big game against Panthers defense that lacks pass rush and doesn't blitz at high rate. However, the source expects Bills to lean heavily on running the ball rather than pass, as they're not worried about Panthers run defense and will aim to get out in front early. This limits Allen's ceiling despite the favorable matchup; the source notes Allen rarely brings teammates along in high-volume passing games due to the Bills' balanced approach, limiting ceiling upside for pass-catchers.

Kenneth Walker III is emerging as a potential threat to Chuba Hubbard's role in the Panthers backfield. The source raises the question of whether the Panthers are transitioning toward Walker, suggesting increased snap count or role opportunity going forward.

Vidal's recent strong performance against the Vikings run defense is cited as evidence that the Vikings are vulnerable to running back production, supporting the case for Barkley to have a breakout game in the same matchup.

Lamar Jackson was a full practice participant and expected to return for Week 8 after hamstring injury. The source expects reduced rushing volume as he recovers, with the Ravens likely to rely more on their ground game through Derrick Henry and 21/22 personnel packages. Jackson is still not fully cleared, which will keep the Ravens balanced and run-heavy rather than forcing a pass-heavy game plan. Despite injury concerns (26th percentile EPA per play vs. Chiefs, missed time, not fully 100% healthy), the source projects upside as a passer against the Bears' weak pass rush: 'Lamar with Monin against this defense, I think can still get there as a passer.' Stacks well with Isaiah Likely as a double-stack option, and Flowers-Lamar is noted as a 'pretty strong single stack.'

Recorded 73% route participation in 12-personnel sets before the bye week, providing context for tight end route distribution and usage patterns in the Ravens offense.

Judkins was 'big-time chalk last week' and despite poor overall metrics, scored three touchdowns and had a 46-yard run, demonstrating that running backs in favorable spots (home, big favorite, team leaning on them) can produce fantasy value through goal-line touches and chunk plays even when efficiency metrics are poor. This template applies to Barkley's upcoming matchup.

High-upside pivot play in his fourth revenge game against the Giants; had his best rush yards over expected of the season against them (12 carries due to game script), but this week the Eagles are favored and unlikely to abandon the run. The Giants run defense is bad and will be without multiple secondary players (Ado and Holland expected out), preventing them from stacking the box like Brian Flores did last week (50% stack rate). Two weeks ago against the Giants, Barkley was efficient with only 25% box stacking. The source made him the cover boy because 'if this if he can't do it here, then I don't know that, you know, 2025 is just kind of a lost season.' Barkley faces a classic good spot for running back spike weeks: big home favorite against bad run defense; at the goal line he was productive last week. The source compares his situation to Quinchon Judkins' spike-week setup: both are at home as big favorites with their teams likely to lean on them heavily in the run game. Judkins was 'big-time chalk last week' and scored three touchdowns despite poor overall metrics, suggesting Barkley needs only touches and goal-line opportunities to produce fantasy value. Despite poor recent metrics and inefficient run game production (10 carries for 27 yards after his first two carries in the last game), the source believes Barkley's physical tools remain intact and he is due for positive regression similar to Christian McAffrey and Jalen Gibbs, who had poor metrics entering last week but exploded.