Legendary Sickos: Best Ball Regular Season Recap & Playoff Thoughts
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Dec 11, 2025
Published
Thu, December 11, 2025
31
Player insights
31
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownBijan RobinsonBucky IrvingChristian WatsonDavid NjokuDont'e ThorntonGeno SmithGeorge KittleIsaiah LikelyJack BechJalen CokerJalen RoyalsJames CookJaydon Blue
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeValue16:00
The source questions whether AJ Brown represents a neutral draft outcome in best ball scenarios, suggesting uncertainty about his role as a differentiating second-round pick in Jonathan Taylor avoidance strategies.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeValue26:00
The source deliberately avoided drafting Bijan Robinson despite acknowledging he's a great pick; in the legendary upside article, the source considered hedging by endorsing Bijan but ultimately decided not to take him, stating explicitly 'I'm not taking Bijan.' Bijan has been a great pick in 2024, but the source actively chose Gibbs over him in high-stakes leagues and best ball despite Bijan going later in drafts; the source acknowledges Bijan's strong season performance but maintains conviction in the Gibbs allocation, suggesting Bijan's ADP may not fully reflect his production relative to Gibbs.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeUsage13:00
Bucky Irving exemplifies the variance problem in best ball playoffs: he had a weak week 15 but a strong week 16, but by the time he performed well, so few teams with him had advanced that his breakout didn't matter for the overall portfolio. This illustrates how low-owned players can have variable week-to-week performance that doesn't translate to meaningful playoff advancement or chalk impact in finals.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout21:58
The source did not draft Christian Watson but views him as a smash late-season pick; Watson represents the type of later-developing rookie who can hit in weeks 15–16 and help advance rates to the finals despite not contributing early in the season.
Insight pageDavid Njoku
PositiveRole16:57
The source has drafted Bowers (David Njoku) alongside Trey McBride in best ball portfolios; while acknowledging Bowers has a harder path to advance than McBride, the source maintains confidence in his upside, particularly when paired with complementary pieces like Puka Achane.
Insight pageDont'e Thornton
NegativeValue30:25
Deonte Thornton is a rookie receiver with a 12% air yards rate, below expectations for a player installed as a starter day one. The source took Thornton hoping for Puka Nacua-style immediate impact, but he has underperformed and is now in the category of players you need to hit a late-season touchdown to justify the draft capital.
Insight pageGeno Smith
NegativeRole31:41
Gino Smith is the Raiders quarterback whose performance has been hampered by the worst offensive line the source has ever seen; while Smith is not blameless, the source does not believe the poor offensive line situation was the intended bet when drafting Jack Besh in the 17th round. Kenny Pickett has since replaced Smith, creating a new offensive situation for Raiders skill position players.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveProjection16:57
George Kittle is positioned as a tight end the source is actively trying to advance through the playoffs in best ball; recent performance spike (going 'absolutely nuclear' approximately 36 hours before this discussion) supports the case for getting him through the playoffs in best ball lineups.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeValue14:24
Isaiah Likely's early-season performance—outperforming Mark Andrews in week 1—created a narrative shift that led to massive draft value inflation; he was drafted in the second round of FFPC drafts the following year, illustrating how a single strong game can dramatically alter draft expectations and market perception despite not sustaining that level of production.
Insight pageJack Bech
NegativeProjection30:25
Jack Besh is a second-round rookie running back drafted in the 17th round of best ball; the source expects he will likely be a bust for most of the season but has late-season touchdown upside. In his recent week, Besh ran 31 routes and had 6 receptions for 50 yards, showing he is getting playing time and could catch a touchdown in week 16 or later to help a team in the playoffs. The source describes him as a 'blind bet' in best ball, a speculative play where draft capital and team investment justify the risk despite uncertain early-season production, with the expectation of potential late-season emergence.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveValue33:56
Second-round pick viewed as a strong blind-bet value play in best ball despite falling to round two due to off-field concerns (diva behavior, scout criticism) and a weak final college season. The source cites draft capital as a reliable indicator of late-season emergence, noting that teams rarely completely abandon second-round investments after a rookie season; Coker was seen as the number one wide receiver prospect in the class and the source expects he will be on the field by season's end.
Insight pageJalen Royals
NegativeBust28:28
The source liked Jaylen Royals as a home-run swing pick in the Chiefs passing game, betting on him to step into a role without injury given concerns about Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce's decline; however, the pick did not work out. Royals has a 14% advance rate, which is below expectations for a player drafted with late-season emergence potential. The source notes that speculative late-round archetypes like Royals are more likely to produce zeros, which can prevent team advancement even if one hits, suggesting limiting exposure to multiple high-variance players on the same team.
Insight pageJames Cook
NegativeRole16:06
James Cook is positioned as a secondary anchor in best ball portfolios for teams that avoided Jonathan Taylor; he provides coverage alongside JSN in Taylor-avoidance draft strategies.
Insight pageJaydon Blue
NegativeRole38:01
Speculative running back pick used as a team-construction example. The source recommends balancing high-floor players (like Jaylen Royals and Tory Horton) with speculative zero-upside plays like Jayden Blue to avoid loading a best ball roster with too many boom-or-bust players, as this increases the likelihood of hitting on at least one speculative play while maintaining roster flexibility.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveBreakout0:04
The source expresses strong enthusiasm for Jeremiah Love as a standout receiver prospect in the 2025 rookie class, stating 'I'm way more excited to talk about as everyone is to talk about Jeremiah Love' and confirming 'I know Love is good.' He is positioned as a top-tier receiver option worth highlighting among the available receivers in the draft class.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeProjection0:00
Jonathan Taylor delivered strong regular-season performance ('going nuclear,' 'been awesome,' 'advance rate god') and was described as 'the smashiest smashiest smash of all smashes' as a playoff pick, but his playoff value is complicated by multiple factors: Daniel Jones' injury and backup quarterback Riley Leonard, an unfavorable Seahawks matchup, and a low advance rate (~50%) in best ball playoff scenarios. The source notes tension between wanting him on most teams versus his actual playoff utility; even with 100% advance rate, half of teams won't have him, and the source would want him on roughly two-thirds of their teams. His week 15 performance becomes a narrative pivot point for teams that avoided him—they can tell themselves they only need Taylor to underperform to advance.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue23:07
Keenan Allen was a nice great pick as a late wide receiver; he was considered cheap and undervalued relative to expectations, similar to Adam Thielen from a couple years ago; he has a 22% advance rate, making him a solid advance-rate piece that helped teams get through the regular season. The source also views him as an ideal 'chaperone' pairing with Luther Burden in best ball team construction, providing veteran presence that balances high-variance young talent and supports 'handing the baton' strategy to maintain above-average advancement rates.
Insight pageKyle Williams
NegativeValue29:49
Kyle Williams is a late-season upside bet that has underperformed; the source notes Williams is at 14% air yards rate, matching Jaylen Royals, indicating both receivers have failed to deliver on their late-season emergence potential.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout20:39
The source has 18 best ball teams with Luther Burden and views him as a quintessential flag-plant playoff pick; despite producing nothing through the regular season, Burden has recently taken over as the slot receiver and is getting increased usage, positioning him as a potential breakout candidate in weeks 15-17. The source is excited about Burden's recent role elevation and sees him as part of a preferred archetype of talented young players, though ideally paired with complementary veteran presence like Keenan Allen to balance team construction.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeValue14:24
Mark Andrews' draft value collapsed after Isaiah Likely's strong week 1 performance; the source notes Andrews was perceived as 'cooked' and went undrafted in subsequent FFPC drafts, representing a sharp reversal from his prior elite tight end status based on a single week of competition.
Insight pageMarquise Brown
PositiveBreakout29:36
The source frames Hollywood Brown as a potential late-season depth chart beneficiary in a Burden-style bet, where if a competing player does nothing early but emerges late, he could take over Hollywood's starting role and provide significant playoff upside.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveProjection8:38
Michael Wilson delivered strong regular-season performance, described as 'going nuclear' and highlighted as one of the season's best picks alongside Jonathan Taylor. The source cites him as part of a group of late-season upside bets (Burks, Royals, Horton, Keenan Allen, Michael Wilson, Wan'Dale Robinson, Kyle Williams) used to inform draft strategy and balance between prioritizing late-season emergence versus over-indexing on single-season results.
Insight pageMitchell Trubisky
NegativeProjection4:25
Used as a ceiling comparison for a rookie quarterback prospect, characterized as a mediocre prospect level suggesting limited upside and inconsistent performance potential.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveBreakout32:29
Puka Nacua is cited as the historical benchmark for rookie receiver immediate impact; the source used him as the comparison point when evaluating Deonte Thornton, who was installed as a starter day one. The source took Thornton hoping for Puka-level production but acknowledged not expecting that level of emergence, instead targeting a player with drumbeat around starter installation and potential to help a team right away.
Insight pageRashid Shaheed
NegativeDepth Chart30:00
Rashid Shaheed was traded to the Saints after Tory Horton got injured, eliminating Horton's late-season emergence opportunity and creating a depth chart shift in the Saints receiving corps.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeProjection17:04
Saquon Barkley went in the first round this year versus Jonathan Taylor in the second, reversing last year's dynamic when Taylor was the playoff essential and Barkley was not. The source notes that while Saquon wasn't bad, his projection is now diminished 'because of all the things that we've learned,' making him less valuable than Taylor despite the ADP difference. The comparison highlights how Barkley's role or efficiency has declined compared to prior expectations.
Insight pageTony Pollard
PositiveProjection25:15
Tony Pollard set a career-high 170 rushing yards against the Browns in a recent game; this was a career-high single-game rushing performance for Pollard, surpassing his production with the Cowboys, demonstrating the upside available in his current role. The source had bet his rushing under and lost that bet when Pollard broke the line on his first carry.
Insight pageTory Horton
NegativeInjury30:00
The source took Tory Horton as a late-season upside bet but the situation deteriorated when Horton got injured and the team traded for Rashid Shaheed, eliminating the late-season emergence opportunity. The source also notes that speculative late-round archetypes like Horton are more likely to produce zeros, which can prevent team advancement even if one hits; portfolio strategy suggests limiting exposure to multiple high-variance players on the same team.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury16:57
Tucker Kraft was evaluated as a smash pick and took a huge step forward this year, but the injury he sustained negated his draft value; the source notes he was an awesome pick that didn't work out because he got hurt, despite not having significant personal exposure to him.
Insight pageTyquan Thornton
NegativeValue37:56
Speculative fourth-round pick with zero-risk profile; portfolio strategy example of high-variance player that produces zeros or close to zeros frequently, requiring careful team construction to avoid stacking too many similar archetypes on one roster.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
NegativeValue29:49
Wan'Dale Robinson is cited as part of a group of late-season upside bets (Burks, Royals, Horton, Keenan Allen, Michael Wilson, Wan'Dale Robinson, Kyle Williams) used to inform draft strategy and balance between prioritizing late-season emergence versus over-indexing on single-season results.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00There's there's got to be There's just way too much chaos. You know, we're talking about how much chaos there's this year where Jonathan Taylor
0:06is like the smashiest smashiest smash of all smashes.
0:10And then maybe not even that good of a playoff pick. Maybe you know, maybe not going to do that much for you once you The
0:15anti-undertaker gif. He did the If you did the undertaker gif in the >> [laughter] >> All right, Pat.
0:33>> [music] >> We're back. We made it.
0:35Taking a little hiatus from our our little podcast [music] that we have going on here. Hopefully the people are excited. I don't know that this is going
0:42to be one of our We'll save the 4-hour marathons for when we're dissecting Fernando Mendoza and >> Oh, man. I can't wait to dissect
0:51Fernando Mendoza. Where were you Where were you at on the postgame interview?
0:56Uh oh, I I didn't see What did What did he do in >> very polarizing. Because Mendoza has like a very very specific
1:03energy. I think we can all come together around that. [laughter] His energy is specific. And he um for some people it read like very
1:13authentic, very like this guy is who he is. That's why he's so great. He's But like in kind of a dorky Kirk Cousins
1:18way, but like lovable. Yeah. For me, it was extremely hard to take and like to the point where I was like, "I'm out."
1:27>> [laughter] >> I know this guy is like literally just just won the Big Ten, but I'm out.
1:32Just won the Big Ten. Just beat one of the best teams in recent year like last Just kicked the [laughter] [ __ ] out of
1:36everyone.
1:37>> seen more of him. Like he cuz what it is is that I think so the person's interviewing him and and and and you know the the thing
1:45too is that they course they interview his teammates after, so you get the comparison. And and I sat around. I I
1:51waited.
1:52I saw the next interview. I'm like, "Yep. Okay. This is This is what Right.
1:56This is what it feels like when two humans interact." So that the you know, the journalist she's asking you know, what does it What does it feel
2:02like to be How does it feel? And he and he just he takes the question and then he goes right to camera. "It's a
2:08beautiful thing, man. We all came together. This is a group. We all were brothers." And he's like doing all this stuff and then he like finishes and like
2:15back to her. I'm like, "Oh, man. It's like it's very Maybe it's Gen Z kind of streamer energy or something." Like I
2:21don't You know, it's like very like it felt like he's doing a Tik Tok.
2:25And Did he start doing a stupid dance? He might as well have like done a thing.
2:32And I couldn't I couldn't take it.
2:33>> And his brother's his backup, right?
2:35>> this person. There's a person next to you, you know. They could have done a Tik Tok. Like his brother like pops out
2:40from behind, right? Just go full Mendoza family Tik Tok to celebrate the the Big Ten championship. No, I quickly >> found it endearing, so I don't know.
2:48He's I think he's going to be kind of polarizing. Uh oh, he's definitely polarizing because and I love that we're getting This is what we do, right?
2:55Uh >> [laughter] >> This guy I let you know so we're not going to go down a rabbit hole. We're not going to get into 3 hours of
2:59Fernando Mendoza. Uh we'll see how long this goes.
3:03But he the class if you've looked at all not great. Not a great quarterback. Like he is probably the QB1 and he's fine.
3:12No, I don't think he's fine. I mean and this is the leaving the interview stuff aside, which you know, I think is funny.
3:17But like what is it Kenny Pickett or something like that, right? Like as a QB1 is he even Kenny Pickett? I guess I
3:22think he'd be Let me I haven't pulled like his numbers will go up uh a bit in my stuff, but I've been kind of going
3:30as we go.
3:31Um let me see if I give him What was Kenny Pickett? Kenny Pickett was the 20th overall draft pick.
3:36>> 20 something, yeah.
3:38Yeah, I think he he's a I think he's a Pickett-level prospect in my model right now.
3:44Uh But he's a worse number I had Cam Ward as the worst number one pick uh going back to like 2011
3:52or something. Mhm. Um and he would be like significantly worse than than Ward. He's definitely worse than Ward and Ward stinks in the pros in
4:01the pros. Yeah.
4:02So yeah, I mean it's not it's not a strong quarterback Yeah, so he would be he would come out worse than Pickett.
4:12Uh with the same draft capital as Pickett. But I But he won't get the same draft capital as Pickett, so maybe
4:16that's unfair to say. But let's say he's the number one overall pick, then he's he comes out signi- meaningfully better than Pickett, but um
4:25he's just above Zach Wilson. Uh he's below Jackson Dart even as the number one overall pick. He's He's He's tied with Mitch Trubisky, who was the number
4:32two pick.
4:33But that's probably Mitch Trubisky's probably like the level of Mhm.
4:37Like and I think like Trubisky maybe he could have a couple years where it's like, "Yeah, no, this this could work
4:42out. This could be fine." And then But I I think he's a Mitch Trubisky-level prospect. I'll put it like that.
4:47>> Right. Surround him with a bunch of good weapons and and they can go okay at times. Um At times. That's That's That's
4:52all right. Yeah. It's It's a rough quarterback class cuz he's the top of it. I'm Yeah, I'm way more excited to
4:57talk about as everyone is to talk about Jeremiah Love. Uh when we get to that cuz not not that's a good There's some
5:03good receivers, too. Right? I haven't dug dug in as much on the rest of the class, but I know Love is good and the
5:08receivers look good. And the best wide receiver in the class is not eligible yet to not in the class, right? But in
5:13the country is still not eligible.
5:15>> Yeah. Mhm. Not yet eligible to come out.
5:18But anyway, we'll get to the rookie stuff, of course, plenty. But you can see when you get to this time of the season
5:24it's kind of a good little segue in that it's a grind, dude. In the best ball world sweating out all of these injuries
5:31and the ups and downs before we went live. Um we were kind of talking about like what even is like a good team now
5:38heading into the playoffs, right? Like you would have said 36 hours ago, you would have said, "Yeah, man, like JT, right? A Chan. Like
5:476 weeks ago you would have said, 'Dude, Abuka best pick up, right? Abuka's like the new lad' or whatever." And like so
5:55much changes setting aside injuries, right? Of course, you know, Michael Penix, Malik Nabers whatever.
6:01All these guys that are that are hurt.
6:03But there's there's so much it's such a roller coaster. There's so much turmoil over the course of the season. So yeah, I do start to get
6:09excited for like, "Let's like look at the rookies." Cuz I I can't keep staring >> Yeah, no. down the barrel at some of
6:14these best ball teams that are like they might be advancing. Like I might have an like a bunch of advancing teams that I'm
6:19just like I pull it open and I'm like, "This is not going to win Like this has no chance." And this is one of my good
6:25teams. The rookies are fun cuz you get it's a chance to be like really really right and really really wrong in like a
6:30clear-cut way.
6:32Yeah. [laughter] You know what I mean?
6:33Where it's like, "No, this guy sucks and I thought he was good." Whereas like so much of the best ball right now The
6:38funny thing about the best ball stuff though is it will feel obvious later.
6:42Mhm.
6:43It will feel so much more clear-cut later even though it's not clear-cut now.
6:46>> weeks.
6:47Yeah. Yeah, we're going to be like, "Well, yeah, clear right? This and Clearly this guy is the league winner, but we're not going to like you can't
6:53even pick.
6:54It's tough to like is like how much Jonathan Taylor do you really want now?
6:59You know, which is like not Jonathan Taylor's fault. He's been awesome. From that pers- from a process perspective, he was an absolute smash.
7:05Um and he might well be a smash in every way you can imagine, but it's like it got you know, obviously with the
7:12Daniel Daniel Jones injury, which is awful.
7:15Um it just makes things a lot a lot tougher for him. And he'll be very chalky, too.
7:20So, you know, it's like if JT had you know, so there's that element of it as well where there's a ton of
7:27advancing teams even with the last couple weeks not being that strong. And they had a bye.
7:31Um you know.
7:33So, what do you think? I kind of like that subject as a starter. From a what we're going to do which is of course 7 minutes in and I'm
7:40going to finally now get to kind of the subject at hand. We're going to recap a little bit of what's happened in the
7:44season, you know, some process hits, misses, just overall observations about the 2025 / 2026 season. And then we're going to look ahead to the fantasy
7:53playoff, the best ball playoff specifically and like who do you want on your teams? Who do you not want, right?
7:58Like what are some possible takeaways that can happen? Maybe some good matchups. Well, I I imagine the old JT against the Seahawks
8:05uh matchup is going to come up a bit if you care about best ball over the course of the next couple weeks, which doesn't
8:10feel good with Riley Leonard. Like it didn't feel good with Daniel Jones at quarterback. It really doesn't feel good. Um a 50% like he's he's has a 50%
8:19advance rate. Jonathan Taylor does. And you're going to run into the stone wall that is the Seahawks defense in the fantasy playoffs.
8:25With Riley Leonard at quarterback. Or Anthony Richardson, but that's not necessarily better.
8:30>> Yeah, well, it's six of one, half dozen of the other. Um but like one of my favorite things to think about
8:38is I don't know that there's like a takeaway from this or like a lesson or anything like that. But like when we
8:43come to this point in the season, clearly like logic would say here's the like 10 best picks, whatever, you know. And like
8:51Michael Wilson's going nuclear, right?
8:53Jonathan Taylor had gone nuclear. Was Abuka like an awesome pick, right? Um Trey McBride bought Bowers, whatever.
9:00Like how do we How do we classify like the good picks? And then when you flip over the cards with your advancing
9:05teams, like where do we stand on like do I really want Jonathan Taylor on most of my teams? It's like this weird
9:12conundrum. Like that's what makes this game so fascinating.
9:14>> You'd rather have gotten there without Taylor. Like strongly. But is there is that just like a we just deal with the
9:20fact that this is a variance, right? And like, you know, I guess part of the fact is two teams advance. So that's an
9:27interesting little right nugget is that even if you don't have Jonathan Taylor on a team, that's not prohibiting me from advancing.
9:32>> Half the teams from every league Let's say he has 100% advance rate, right?
9:36Yeah, there's still half the teams don't have him. However, like we don't want to actively draft worse players, right? That's like the
9:43And and like we could predict it if we if we tried, right? No, I mean if you said like how much Jonathan Taylor you
9:48want, you'd be like all of it?
9:50But you wouldn't say all of it cuz you wouldn't want your entire portfolio resting on one player, right? But it'd be like high. I don't know. Like like
9:56two-thirds of your teams would have him I'm sure. 67% or something. You want to be above like if you said >> Like way above.
10:03Yeah.
10:04You want to be over that number I think given But but again now you have this injury. It's just a fascinating little
10:10thing because last year I almost wonder if the if literally we're going to have the exact the fantasy gods are just up there, you
10:16know. Uh going straight Geppetto and like just playing with us.
10:20>> Going straight Geppetto. Last year Jonathan Taylor is not a very good pick.
10:24Right? And say Saquon Barkley was like a you idiots. How could you not draft Saquon Barkley? Now I know Saquon went
10:30in the first and JT went in the second this year. But like it would be so funny. Because JT if you recall last
10:35year was the guy you needed Yeah. Yeah.
10:38in fantasy playoffs and it was not Saquon Barkley. It's not that Saquon was bad. He didn't go full Josh Jacobs or
10:42anything like that. But he Like you you really weren't winning anything with him if you had him over Jonathan Taylor.
10:48Now Jonathan Taylor looks like the advance rate god, great regular season great right like in the marathon if you're on drafters or whatever like
10:55Yeah, of course, you know, your home league you want Jonathan Taylor.
10:58But in Best Ball like do you really want like it's such a weird thing. Like do you want the really low advance rate
11:03piece? How much does it matter that they're low owned versus like dude Saquon's projection is just not very good anymore because of all the things
11:09that we've learned. Yeah, I don't think it matters now. I think it matter like you [clears throat] just want like So
11:15this is the week 15 heading into week 15 is the like you feel as good as you're going to feel I think
11:24in Best Ball if you have I mean unless you have a good final. Unless you have you know if But like you're
11:32>> you know about that?
11:33>> [laughter] >> That is a better feeling. But you But like the if you advance a ton of teams like you it's such a good feeling.
11:41And this is the the week where you get to like and live it up, you know. Like embrace that feeling because
11:51week 15 itself is unbelievable in terms of how much pain with your your portfolio just getting slashed with the way you know these
12:02really unforgiving uh you know, week 15 cutdowns.
12:07Whereas like you could advance 40 teams and not a single team gets through to the semis. That's like statistically quite reasonable. Um
12:16And so I just think like if you tell me like what do you want me to portfolio to be made up of? I'd be like of like the
12:21most highest projecting players you could give me and I don't give a [ __ ] about how many uh how many other people have them.
12:29Because I just need to like put up Like you're just going to need to put up for two weeks in a row really high scores
12:34uh to get through. And then right? You'd hope in week 17 that you have maybe not um even the whole roster
12:45being like unowned but you've got certain guys that you were able to get through. There's something there that you're like >> Like you smuggle through someone. Like
12:54that that's what you want I think. You want to have a bunch of really you just want that team to be stacked and then
13:00you you happen to smuggle through a Bucky Irving who doesn't have a great week 15 and he actually does have a good
13:06week 16 but by the time he did that like so few Bucky teams survived that like it doesn't matter, right? Or you know, or
13:13Bowers, right? One of these guys was hard to advance and then he actually does blow up in week 16 and gets you
13:18through easily but like there's just not that many Bowers teams left so he's not chalking the final. Something like that would be kind of perfect where
13:25I don't I think yeah. I'm just Just prepare yourself. Gird yourself for how much this stuff is going to be you know
13:35you were just going to lose all all these teams. The teams you're most excited about are going to die. Some team you don't think is going to be that
13:41great goes nuts, you know, that's hopefully, right?
13:45Right. But that's uh where we're where we're headed where Yeah, this week even if you have a ton through. And then you the funny thing is
13:53you might only get 20 teams through, 15 teams through and you could still end up with a with a semis team. I had a
14:01a really bad year last year in terms of advancing teams but still had a semi team.
14:05Um when like statistically I shouldn't have or I was like right there. So um Yeah, you're you just yeah. It's going to be
14:16There's so much more chaos left to come.
14:19It's the the uh It's like it's the swiftest change from This is incredible before week one is probably when everybody's the
14:28absolute most hopeful because we just spent all this time drafting and you haven't seen >> Yeah. Yeah. Week week one Not only am I hopeful about how
14:34many teams I'm advancing, I'm also like certain I didn't I'm not wrong about anything. Right. Exactly.
14:39>> [laughter] >> Exactly. And then the first quarter of the Thursday night game happens.
14:44Uh and then and then by the way Isaiah Likely right berries Mark Andrews in the first quarter of the Thursday night game
14:50and we have all decided Isaiah Likely is is greatest pick of all time in Mark Andrews.
14:55taken in FFPC the next day. And then it just turns out like Like literally that's not an exaggeration. He went in the second round of of those
15:01drafts last year. That was absolutely hilarious and like Mark Andrews is like going on drafted. People are you know, he's cooked whatever. And obviously
15:08things things uh stabilized. But anyway But heading What I was going to say is heading into week 15 is kind of the time
15:15where right other than that there's just the general optimism of a new season.
15:18But the like Cuz you can tell yourself anything. No matter your advance rate you could be awesome, right? You had a 50% and you're
15:26just crushing everything. You can tell yourself you're an absolute genius. You had a bad advance rate and you can say I
15:31just got to kind of run okay this week.
15:34>> Yeah. Right? You can tell yourself right like you had a bad advance rate because you didn't draft Jonathan Taylor. Well,
15:38you can tell yourself well you know, all I need is Jonathan Taylor to like not have a great game in this
15:44week and I'm alive, you know, and I get the whatever. Um yeah, like Bucky, right? Bucky pops up and scores three
15:51touchdowns in week 15. You have him.
15:53Yeah. [clears throat] Like something happens. You probably have a good second round pick if you got through without Taylor so Yeah. You might be JT McBride
16:00or something. That's pretty or Gibbs Gibbs McBride. Or you just have like a totally neutral Saquon which I don't even know who that would
16:06be necessarily. I think is AJ Brown neutral? I don't know.
16:11But you have like JSN. You have like JSN and like James Cook and like what you know, you're just kind of like covered
16:17off the JT guy and then you have this other guy who's like low. So you can tell yourself this stuff, right? Where
16:22you're like even if I had a bad year or like I think I'm going to have somewhere around 14 or 15% advance rate in in Best Ball
16:29Mania specifically. So a little bit a little bit under but not not too terrible. It'd have to be like Puka Puka
16:36Achane. We'll see assuming he's good to go. Puka Achane JSN Cook could be a start. Someone's got that.
16:44For sure.
16:45For sure. Um if you pull >> have that than the JT McBride up. Yeah, if you pulled if you pulled McBride you
16:51pulled Yeah. Knowing what we know now >> I'd still be happy to have Bowers. He obviously has a harder time to get get
16:57him through but But if you could yeah, if you drafted him with Puka or something like that like you got I've
17:01got some Bowers teams going through.
17:03Yep. Um yeah, I'm very excited maybe we'll talk about some of the tight end stuff because I'm very excited about one
17:08thing I feel good about that among uh and you know, an ocean of mistakes that I that just happens definitely made
17:16this year make every single year. The tight end stuff is like man, like really like incredible, you know, like I have a ton of Trey McBride
17:24up, plenty of Bowers.
17:26Get Kittle through, right? Can can you can you find a way to get George Kittle through? Fanning just went absolutely nuclear. Literally yeah, like 36 hours
17:34ago George Harold Fanning goes absolutely nuts. Uh Tucker Kraft was Tucker Kraft a good pick? I think so.
17:39Didn't work cuz he got hurt. He was an awesome pick. I didn't really draft him so that's not even that's not my bags. I
17:44didn't I don't have much Kraft at all but he was he was a smash. That dude took a huge step forward this year.
17:49And so you can tell yourself all this stuff, right? Heading into this week.
17:52But then like you said it's also then the most immediately on Sunday, you know, by the Sunday afternoon games you're staring down the barrel at like
17:59dude you had a 40% advance rate and you might get two teams through. And the guy with a 10% advance rate also might get
18:05two teams through. Right. So Robin I talked about this on our show. It's like you went from you thought you had
18:12That guy is miserable. Thought he had a terrible season. You thought you had the greatest season ever and you got to week
18:1616 and you're the and you're the exact same. Of course that it doesn't always work that way. The tough part about it
18:21too is like there are going to be Personally I think there are ways to draft to get 40 teams through that don't
18:31that you actually like drafted to get 40 teams through and like you let the rest then I'll let it all shake out from there.
18:39You know?
18:40And you were actually like actively hurt your ability to get through the playoffs and win in the final. Yeah. And then
18:47there's like lots of But also you can just get 40 teams through by drafting awesome with all the same stuff we
18:52always talk about if like drafting for the end of the season. So it's not like you by getting a lot of teams through it's
18:59it means that you drafted for the beginning of the season.
19:02The ideal is to get all your teams through and have them all loaded up with players that do well at the end of the
19:08season.
19:09Um I I do not subscribe to the idea that they would all be too similar to one another to uh that you'd
19:16>> [laughter] >> that you wouldn't want to get them all through. I think you would want to get them all through. Yeah, I think I I
19:22think I can deal with the like it's a snake draft against 11 other guys and I think [laughter] they're not going to
19:27like unless I literally just pulled everyone up by like three rounds. Like they're all I'm going to have plenty of I take big stands, dude. Like some of
19:35the bigger stands of and and I I could go through all my teams right now and they're all wildly different. I have 60
19:41players. They're all >> [laughter] >> different.
19:43>> Yeah, so get as many teams as you can through. But but you know it's if you're drafting for the end of the
19:50season then you are somewhat to some extent sacrificing, you know, the the pure If we were just drafting to purely advance,
19:59we would draft a little differently than the way we do draft now. So, you you create you know, a little bit of a disadvantage
20:06compared to people who are drafting more focused on like all I want to do is advance and um And so yeah, this is like hopefully the
20:14time to shine for the teams that built for the playoffs, but it doesn't mean that you will. Like, you know, you could
20:20build awesome teams for the playoffs and then the wrong guys go off in week 15 or week 16 and and it doesn't go your way. But
20:26yeah, it's it's it's chaotic [laughter] as hell and it's hard to figure out, you know, one one slate, you know, it's tough to
20:33take too many lessons from. But at the same time like this is the To me this is the fun This is a really fun time of the
20:39year because you know, now you get you get to the the end like I have a ton of Luther Burden, right?
20:46And Luther Burden still hasn't really done anything.
20:48I I I'm so excited about having Luther Burden now, you know? Like that's because like Luther Burden is the quintessential pick where I'm
20:57And I have a I have 18 BBM teams and per BBM DB expected 19.6. So, hopefully a couple more get through tonight
21:07um that have Luther Burden. So, like he is one of like my big pieces. Now, Luther Burden might do jack in week 15 and 16 and 17 and and
21:17it's not a good pick. But like it's the type of He was one of these guys that I like kind of put, you know, like a flag
21:23plant play.
21:25He might be my highest drafted player.
21:26Um but he's my big flag plant play and it's just it's fun to see him now getting more usage and even before Rome got
21:32hurt. He he had taken over as their slot. So, it was all kind of headed that way and you know, it might work
21:38out, it might not. But like to me this is like a really fun time of year because you get to see these types of
21:43picks who to this point may have done nothing for your round one, but like this round is just as important as 14
21:50previous weeks and then the next round is just as important as those 14 previous weeks as well. And if we can
21:55just get one week from a guy like Burden um De'Shawn Tooton it doesn't seem as likely.
22:01Uh he was banged up last week, didn't do anything. But man, if you could get that running game looks awesome. So, if you
22:06could get a week from Tooton, I've got 16 Tooton teams coming through. And Tooton hasn't done anything. But I've got Tooton, you know? So, like you can
22:13We talk I talked about like smuggling guys through the final. But to me, what I'm trying to do with some of this stuff
22:19with these rookies and some of these later developing guys, unfortunately I I did not take Christian Watson. But like man, what a smash he would have been as
22:26a as a late late season hammer. Um so kudos to you if you were on that one.
22:32But then you know, you get that these guys through. They didn't maybe help your your advance rates through the first round, but they might still help
22:39your advance rates to the final um by hitting in week 15 and 16. Like they're it's just fun to see like, okay, which
22:45guys are kind of starting to bubble up as not just players that you want on your team, but players like you want on
22:50your team more than the than the guys who were getting tagged as league winners in week six.
22:55It's an interesting idea. Like as you were talking thinking about cuz you mentioned uh you know, so we have advance rate
23:02players.
23:03Uh you know, obviously the Jonathan Taylors of the world, but there's there's right there's lesser uh He's he's cooled off a lot, right? But
23:10like I think Keenan Allen could have probably been considered like a a nice nice great pick, right? That's a that's a good one, yeah. Late wide receiver.
23:17Like even if if you were drafting Keenan Allen you would not say like this is the this is this year's Puka, right? Like
23:23nobody was saying that. It was like, no, he's just too cheap. He's Everybody said he's Maybe he's this year's Thielen from
23:28a couple years ago. Which he kind of has the Chargers are getting At least he was early. It probably is and Thielen was
23:34very similar. So, you have that, right?
23:37Let's just let's just call that the advance rate guy that's like this was clearly a a team that a guy that helped
23:42you get guys through.
23:44But then you have the like get me to the finals guy, right? Where that could be a different thing. And and and I'm not trying to say
23:50that it has to be a certain Keenan Keenan has a 22% advance rate, so Right.
23:53So, Keenan is a pretty good advance rate piece. Solid pick. Um and then you have the this guy wins it for me in the in the finals. And the
24:03last two are some can can often be thought of similarly, right? Like Burden could fall in either one of those categories. Like he could have the big
24:10week 16 that gets your whatever, right?
24:13Uh Bowers has a bad week 16, but you just get the whoa, Burden went for 102 or whatever, right? In this in the spot and
24:20you happen to have Fannin with him, right? And Fannin catches the touchdown.
24:23So, like cool. Now you got Bowers through.
24:25I happen to have Fannin on a lot of teams as it turns out. Me, too. Me, too.
24:29Uh that was nice. That was that was very very nice. That was very nice.
24:33I I'm not a Shaddur fan, but I got to say it's much nicer having Shaddur back there for a Fannin and Dylan Sampson are
24:40two of my highest owned players across Best Ball. So, this has been a nice rejuvenation. I can't I It's just for my mental health. I can't watch
24:47Dylan Gabriel play professional football anymore. Yeah, Shaddur is I I I'm not in the Shaddur is good camp, but he is a lot more fun. You
24:57got to give him that. He's a lot more fun than Gabriel.
25:00>> He can do things on a football field that that that Dylan Gabriel just physic Dylan He mostly like, you know, he like
25:05points and then he like throws it out of bounds.
25:07>> [laughter] >> But he also does some cool stuff. Like I will give him give him credit. This was a pretty decent game. He's coming off a
25:15pretty decent game here. Yep. Yep. Uh in a loss to the Titans where Tony Pollard set a career high rushing yards against
25:22the Browns. Spoiler, I bet his rushing under.
25:25>> [laughter] >> He broke that on the one carry in the first quarter. I was like, oh, this might not go very well for me this week.
25:31>> Browns running has been good this year and they were awful in that game. Awful.
25:34Tony Pollard went for 170 or something like that in that in the game. Yeah, a career high. As good as Pollard was with
25:39the Cowboys, that was a career high single game rushing uh for Tony Pollard. But anyway, uh there's this like and that's how I'm
25:47trying to think about because I definitely I'm getting better at some of this stuff, right? The the people would come for you and say, oh,
25:55you zero RB bros, you idiots, right? You failed to take one. And I'm like, I'm well Jamir get I'm well overweight Jamir
26:00Gibbs and I feel awesome about that. I'm I'm doubled the field on Jonathan Taylor. Like I feel obviously And I was
26:06sweating bullets on cuz I in my legendary upside article I you know, you want it. Like part of me is like just just hedge, dude. Just be
26:15like, Bijan's a great pick, do it. But I was like, I'm not taking Bijan. I'm just telling you I'm not taking Bijan. I've
26:21had opportunities in the high stakes leagues and in Best Ball and you know, basically if you give me the chance, I'm just taking Gibbs. I'm
26:28just taking Gibbs.
26:29I'm not taking Bijan. I'm taking Gibbs and he was going behind him. And I'm just like betting on Jamir Gibbs over
26:33Bijan.
26:34Um and I have I mean Bijan the thing is Bijan has been a great pick. So, maybe that was dumb, but
26:41Gibbs is just like God. He's not even like it's not even all happening, you know? He's still splitting with Mont Montgomery to a degree and it's like,
26:48dude, this dude is different. So, This is it. It's [laughter] I'm I'm happy to see it. And we talked about it
26:54you and I talked about it like if there was a running back in the first round that you had to like I don't remember,
26:58you know, one of the episodes that were you know, asking kind of these theoreticals. Like you had to take this running back one to one, right? You
27:04couldn't do Chase, you couldn't do CD, you couldn't do whatever. You had to take this running back. And we both just
27:07like it's like uh we Oh, sorry, not Bijan. It was Gibbs. Gibbs. It was it was like Gibbs and it was like not even
27:13heat on on Bijan. It's just I put in Bijan's uh thing here to to look at his advance rate. That's why his name was
27:20Yeah, but Gibbs, we both said Gibbs.
27:22Right. And I it's sometimes it's nice to to right to to get one what a Kevin from The Office or whatever uh when uh
27:30uh they're they're working they're doing construction and they have to park in the like satellite parking lot and he's mad, you know, cuz he's sweating and his
27:38feet hurt and all that kind of stuff.
27:39And after they go and they get the guys together in the room and they're like give them their parking spots back and
27:44he's like so mad about the parking spots and he's just like, you know, they do the quick little interview with him.
27:48It's just nice to win one sometimes. You know what I mean? That's that's how I feel about Jamir Gibbs. It's like, you
27:54know what? You know, I get I'm I get We all win with Jamir Gibbs. That dude he's so fun to watch. It's just incredible to
28:00watch. It's really nice to root for the early round running back it instead of being like, god damn it, there goes
28:05Saquon again, you know? Last year it was like every time he ripped a 60-yarder just felt like, you know, you lost a
28:10year off your life. Now when Gibbs is doing it, it feels quite nice. But And Prime Vision.
28:15Yeah, just unbelievable. So, and sorry. When it's like exactly what your like thesis was.
28:23>> Yeah. Yeah. And that that sometimes it's just luck. Things shake out a certain way. But sometimes it's like, uh no,
28:28literally this is what we talked about for months is exactly happening. But there's this weird right like balancing act that I'm still trying to learn
28:36lessons from of like at what at what cost do we take some of these home run swings? How do I how do I
28:45appropriately balance the home run swings on individual teams? Right? So, like here's an example.
28:51I really liked Jaylen Royals.
28:54And but fully admitting it was like a home run swing.
28:57Right? This is like a I don't think Worthy's that good. Hollywood's kind of cooked. But I think the Chiefs are going
29:02to be good. Rashee's like I I mean I like him I like him a lot, but like there's a lot of weird, you know,
29:07anarchy going on around uh him. Kelce's kind of cooked. Like I don't I'm like, if this dude's good and I kind of think
29:13he is. Obviously that that probably is not true. But over the summer like if this dude's good and like you could just step into a real
29:21role on the Chiefs without an injury or something like that. Now, clearly that was wrong.
29:26And so I look at him on a lot of these teams where I'm like, did I need him?
29:30Was he still a good right taking 20% was that good? Was that bad? Should I Should I have done Keenan on this team? And
29:36like cuz part of you is like, well, he's also like the Burden style bet where like if he does nothing all year, but
29:42emerges right he just takes Hollywood's job or something like that later in the season, you're feeling really good about that. So, this like balancing act of
29:49during draft season specifically of taking these lessons from like you know Burden versus Royals versus Tory Horton versus Keenan Allen versus
29:56Michael Wilson versus right Wan'Dale versus Kyle Williams versus like there's like all this kind of stuff and you don't want to you don't want to like
30:04over index on on the results from the one season, but I do try to think about that a lot as someone who very much
30:09prioritizes the late season upside, but can also run into over prioritizing it uh certainly on individual team.
30:17Yeah, and I think it it's comes down to a lot of the rest of the team like I just so uh looking at PBMDB Royals has a 14%
30:25advance rate um right now. Kyle Williams is at 14% um and you know like I took a bunch of Jack Besh who probably is
30:37>> Donte Thornton similar. He's a he's a 12 and a half so he's not been there you know, he's below expectations
30:44uh although he was going much higher.
30:45Thornton's at 12% So, I mean these guys have hurt you, but to me like you with these receivers I think you can
30:57swing it like you the running backs to me are the um in some ways like the true home run swings where like they get they
31:05might not like literally see like Jack Besh is out there now. Mhm.
31:10>> [clears throat] >> Um Jack Besh probably won't do anything for the whole year and is probably just a straight up bust, but
31:17Jack Besh is playing I don't know how many routes he ran this past week, but like he's out there now because he's
31:23their second round pick Mhm. and he it was just always very likely that he was going to be out there.
31:29Um you know, he's not I don't think he's good he ran but he ran 31 routes this past week and he had six receptions for
31:3750 yards.
31:39He's he's pretty live to do to catch a touchdown in week 16 or something and and actually like help a team get
31:46through. Now, he's probably like a Deonte uh no a Tyquan Thornton level rookie pick where you're just like praying he scores a touchdown in the
31:55right week.
31:57Um >> [clears throat] >> It's also not his fault entirely. It's he's certain >> It's not his fault I mean no But the
32:01Raiders are the Raiders are >> I'm I'm like happy that I was happy to see Kenny Pickett. Uh that's that's where the Raiders are at. So
32:07>> need a change like I don't ultimately think this is Gino's fault. We don't got to dissect the Raiders. They have the
32:12worst offensive line I've ever seen in my entire life like Ohio State was out there with a better offensive line and
32:16they couldn't block Indiana >> [laughter] >> in the in the big like Indiana would sack Gino four times. They would. Like
32:25Gino was not blameless, right? None of these guys are blameless. I get Flowers is probably blameless, but like none of these guys are blameless, but it's not
32:32his fault. We didn't this was not our bet if you took Jack Besh in the 17th round that the Raiders were going to be
32:37the worst offense in football. No, but I think it does show you like kind of the these the rookie to me the the guys that
32:44um I tend to go towards or like more the guys with draft capital.
32:49Although like with a with a Puka guy, you know, I want to be if there's the drumbeat around a guy and this is why I
32:55kind of took some Deonte Thornton cuz they're like installing him as a starter day one. Mhm. Not that I thought he was
32:59going to be Puka, but it's like hey like this guy has the potential to actually help you to just be good right away and matter.
33:06Um but he could also uh he could also like uh obviously be the one of the guys you need at the end of the season. So, if
33:14you're if you have that drumbeat that that helps. Yeah, the flip side is that's I took a bunch of Tory Horton as
33:20well which makes me feel like obviously that the run out has not been great for him here for the he got hurt and then
33:26you know that when he gets hurt then they trade for Rashid Shaheed. Yeah. Um That was kind of a bad beat the
33:33Horton. He he looked good. I I think he's good. Like I think we'll be drafting him next you know next so that
33:39that's the flip side to all this is like similar to the Kraft thing is like I think Tory Horton was right. Like
33:44generally right. Like a good just an overall pick, but then it doesn't right it doesn't work out. To me to me I think
33:49that's the chaos. It's I I do think draft capital is such a when you get the discounts on draft capital. And one of the reasons I was
33:56just like hammering with the Burden cuz I was like this dude was like you know, seen as the number one wide
34:02receiver prospect in this class you know, for like kind of like Debbie stuff, you know, coming like he was and it wasn't even
34:09the number one wide receiver in the nation coming into college. Mhm. Um three year guy comes out there's some off the field not like serious off the
34:18field stuff, but like Nah, he's just a diva.
34:20>> kind of some crap about yeah.
34:22>> He's a wide receiver diva. He's Yeah.
34:24Um but they like who's the guy at Bob McGinn you know, his stuff they were like oh these old these old scouts didn't like him that
34:31type of that type of off the field stuff. So, and you know, he fell to the second round. So, clearly the NFL had
34:36some concerns Weird final year. Yeah, the he would have been a first the if his third year went the same as the
34:41first two he would have easily been certainly as as a second year he would have been much higher drafted, but it
34:47was just a weird final season. Still like plenty of draft capital and plenty of talent where it's like I think I'm
34:53pretty sure this guy's going to be on the field by the end of the year even if it's like a Rashee Rice thing where it's
34:57like where like man this this isn't happening like week I mean and this that's what happened when he got that concussion Mhm. at that
35:04point I think pretty much everyone not me cuz I just didn't want to believe it, but yeah >> [laughter] >> everyone would have been like yeah this
35:10is over. This dude is not doing anything.
35:13Um it's a long season man. It's a long season. So, when you get that draft capital and the team's invested in
35:17seeing what they have I I still think we just almost have like blind bet. Like we get another Jack Besh I'm going to blind bet it in the in the
35:2516th round again. Like that's what Chase Claypool was and like you know, he was he was both a bust and a smash as a
35:32rookie, you know, and I think we just that this this is a game that really rewards having guys come on at the end
35:39of the year and that and that draft capital is just a really strong indicator of who we're going to see at
35:44the end of the year. If if a team drafts a dude in the second round unless they absolutely suck in a in a
35:51way that's very uncommon like like Jaylen Polk did.
35:55Right. Um like that that's just a miss. Like if a guy's that bad if he if it's bad enough where the team
36:02like just straight up moves on after their rookie season um then you're you it doesn't matter what the draft capital was. But that's pretty
36:11rare that level of bust is pretty rare.
36:13It's so much more common for someone to bust like a Kadarius Toney or Claypool Tyquan you know and and and then the the
36:20Tyquan still like stick around. Tyquan right and he bounced around a little bit. Now he's on the Chiefs and he he
36:25provided some useful weeks. Right, he was like an advance rate piece.
36:28Honestly. Yeah, most most NFL busts at least like have a with with draft capital most guys in the first second round like they still go on
36:36to like play a little bit, you know, even if it's just their rest of the rookie contract like on another team or
36:41whatever like they don't just like wash out of the league immediately.
36:45I mean like even Jalen Reagor caught on, you know, AD Mitchell every AD Mitchell's going to keep getting shots from every cuz he's he certainly has
36:52talent, right? He has whatever talent that never actually shows up on the field is AD Mitchell has that in spades.
36:59But [laughter] it's not last week a little. I know he had finally had a good game. But AD Mitchell is the king of
37:04we're going to he's going to be 30 and people are going to be like I promise he's always open. It's just the
37:10quarterback. And I'm like he's played with 15 quarterbacks and none of them throw him the ball. So, you're just not going to tell me that he's always I'm
37:17I'm done with the always open thing. I do think that AD Mitchell's like interesting not to make it about him.
37:21But same thing like No, he's one of those guys too. I mean he's not a rookie, but he's second round pick. I
37:25have a bunch AD Mitchell especially on DraftKings where they have the extra rounds and I've got a bunch of him because it's
37:30like hey this dude's he he kind of had like a red shirt rookie season but he was behind someone else. He
37:37flashed his yards per route is really good like maybe he maybe he makes uh a play on Alec Pierce's job which he never did and and
37:46I think you know, a lot of Colts fans would have correctly told you it wasn't going to happen, but quite good. Well,
37:50he got traded so I still you know someone was interested in him that wasn't the Colts cuz they thought he was
37:56a really good prospect. Mhm. Um so I yeah that that draft capital to me just just matters a ton and and
38:02the when you look at like building teams I do think you want to think about if you're with the guys like Royals and
38:11Horton um like how many of those dudes you have on the same team cuz there are uh they are those guys are more likely to be zeros
38:19and then if you have them with guys like a Jayden Blue or you know, some of these like more speculative running back picks
38:28Tyquan Thornton Tuten Tuten was one of mine you know, where he was he was definitely speculative in in a fourth round pick
38:35and so like it didn't you know, those guys are zeros or close all the time.
38:40Um but if you just like if your your team is like loaded up with those types of guys then you're so much
38:46you're you put yourself in a position where you could actually hit on one of them and the team still doesn't advance.
38:50So, it's it's I think like portfolio wise I do want to be overweight on a lot of those types of bets, but the specific
38:57team um you know, like it's it's nice to advance it's nice to advance over expectations with like a lot of players who have
39:07under expectate they they they advance less than expected. And the way you do that is like you kind of mix up which
39:15type of which you know speculative late season play you you put on a given team a little bit.
39:21We're working on something I literally just met with um Hacker who's our CTO end of last week and we started to crystallize
39:29kind of like what you're talking about this exact problem that we're describing now cuz I I personally think it's like probably my biggest problem is not
39:37>> [clears throat] >> it's really not like any we're going to be wrong about certain right like you said Jack Besh like he probably just sucks or
39:43like Jaylen Royals, like you know, it sometimes it's wrong, but sometimes you get Tory Horton, sometimes you get >> But give me Jack Bash on my team. If I
39:48have advancing teams that have Jack Bash on them, I'm fine with it. Okay. I know he's probably not going to do anything,
39:53but I didn't pay anything for him and he's going to be he's going to run like 30 routes again, probably. Right. But
39:57figuring out in the draft how to blend together these archetypes of players.
40:04Because like look, I'll fully admit like I just like the sexier fun names that I can dream on, the rookies, the young
40:10players, the whatever, like guys that I just think are talented, whatever.
40:15But like I also need to make sure that I'm like checking myself sort of, right?
40:19So like oh, you like Burden? Yeah, you like Burden, you like Tooten, you like Jack Bash, you like Tory Horton, you
40:25like Harold Fannin.
40:26Right? You like Dylan Sampson or whatever and it's like You can put all those guys on the same team, you know, you like them all.
40:32They're all like core parts of your portfolio, but every time you draft uh every time you draft Luther Burden, you probably want some, you know, we
40:42>> [clears throat] >> coined them, right? Like chaperones. I think that's a not not the convo for today, but a convo for next summer is
40:47addressing the I think the chaperone thing is very real. I think we're really bad at identifying chaperones and like like managing them and putting them onto
40:55teams. But I think we want these [ __ ] right? Like it would be really great to have Keenan paired with Luther Burden to
41:02like we talk about handing the baton and stuff like that and it's not just those guys, but like how do we blend these
41:07things together? Cuz I want to have I want to have exactly what we just discussed. I want to have an above
41:12average advance rate, right? I'm not going to pipe dream about some insane number, but I want to have a really good
41:18advance rate, but I also don't want to forego the advance rate to to like give up too much Burden, to give up too
41:25much Bash, to give I don't want to give up all of my Jaylen Royals swings, right? But then maybe I can do it better
41:30with my Jaylen like I want to have some home run swings, I want to have all these types of these archetypes, but I
41:35also don't want to like advance too few teams cuz then you just never have enough shots on goal, but I don't want
41:40to have a bunch of weak ass shots on shots on goal. I right? It's like I I want to I want to
41:45find that fine line and And to be clear, I'm not like going through like I hope I see Jake Bash here, like I don't I'd
41:50rather not. I'd rather hear first. It's way more fun.
41:53Let's skip that one. But it's like one of those things where it's like Jack Bash is like a horrible pick, right? In
41:57any form of fantasy, like Jack Bash is like Jesus.
42:00But not in this form where like he's actually fine. Mhm. That's that's what I'm saying. Like he's like running a lot
42:05more routes than guys like he's going to run more routes than Keenan Allen.
42:08Right?
42:09>> Yeah. This this week. You know, when we week 15. Um I guess we'll see tonight how many routes Keenan Allen runs, but
42:16uh it you know, it'll be he's got a good chance. Uh but you know, obviously there's like lots of guys like
42:22Quinshon Judkins would be, you know, kind of one of these guys, especially you got him late. Um there are kind of
42:27later round guys and then there's later round veterans too, like Javonte Williams like just never turned into a pumpkin. He's just been a really awesome
42:33pick and not someone I was on.
42:35Um So yeah, there's there's different there's different ways to get there, but um yeah, I mean we have so, you know, we
42:43both have our tools and one of the things I love about the sidekick is that it does help you do this is that, you
42:47know, we've got we've got sims now uh working for the for the recommended picks. So it's one of those things where like I I
42:54KB'd off of, you know, what the sidekick was saying to get more like Luther Burden, but then that team I just like
43:00took I I hurt its chances of advancing when I take a Luther Burden cuz we don't, you know, as much as I like
43:07Luther Burden, we never had him as like an absolute smash in the early part of the season or whatever. So um
43:14you know, so then >> sims are the the sims are helping you with that specifically because they're optimizing for more right? Your I can
43:21Because the sims are basically saying his Burden They're optimizing for advance rate, early season production and stuff. So you need to know when to dip away from
43:29there to balance the two.
43:31Yeah, your your team now has like we now expect this team to score fewer points in the Now that you took Burden
43:39compared to like a a running back there.
43:41Like it's like Burden versus Aaron Jones or something, right? Like I'm taking Burden in the eighth instead of Aaron Jones.
43:49I you know, it's like well this team's like pretty desperate to score points now to get through to the to round, you know, to get through round
43:57one. So we have it, you know, set up to where it like we're simming out this team's ability to get through each round the way you
44:05actually do have to get through each round. So it's able to the next recommendations are going to factor that in that your team doesn't
44:13have as much ability to get through. So uh you know, or less with Burden most likely.
44:19Um And so yeah, so that that's that's part of it and that's I think one of the key things, but even if you're not, you
44:26know, even if you don't have the sidekick or whatever whatever else, like you're still um wanting to think through this like in a big way of like what am I
44:36and it does I think one of the things that um conceptually we probably overemphasize is age where it's like oh, Keenan's a
44:44chaperone cuz he's old. Right. Well, you know, Michael Wilson was a chaperone.
44:48Mhm. And he's not old. And didn't do for like the whole season.
44:54And then crushed at the end.
44:57And now has like a 23% advance rate and probably um you know, maybe even a little Yeah, yeah, it'll be about 23% looks like
45:06based on the expected over at BBMDP. So um it's like not even the chaperones aren't necessarily guys who are going to produce in like
45:17week four.
45:20Cuz everyone puts up points in week four.
45:22Like Michael Wilson was a chaperone because during by weeks and weeks where like Cam Skattebo's no longer on your team or like the team's
45:29gotten a lot weaker, could like desperately use a receiver.
45:33Michael Wilson who was always locked into full-time routes uh didn't have any competition behind him on the outside.
45:42Harrison gets hurt and he just gets targeted a bunch for like three weeks and puts up points. I mean no one would have
45:49expected him to do what he's doing, but like these those types of those types of like hey, he's definitely going to run routes. Like an Alec
45:55Pierce, Alec Pierce was a chaperone.
45:58Um And so I think that's that's one thing to think through I think next year is like it doesn't have to be
46:04age.
46:06You know, it doesn't have to be like this guy has a role and someone's [clears throat] coming for that role, but he'll produce for me in
46:13the first six weeks. I think some of these guys is like this dude's on his rookie contract.
46:18Um he's very likely to retain his role.
46:21Pierce, you know, your mile mileage may vary there compared to where you're at on AD Mitchell, but you know, he's he's
46:26likely he's got a role on the team.
46:28He's pretty good at it. He'll probably play the role the whole year. He probably spikes three, four times during the season. And he costs a 15th, 16th
46:38round pick.
46:39Uh that's a chaperone too, not just like Keenan will produce for six weeks and then turn to dust. Yeah.
46:47Yep. Um and that's that that's what's so interesting about it too. Uh I do just want to say on Michael Wilson a couple
46:54things.
46:55Couple of lessons and slash non-lessons.
46:58One I think we've learned is in Now maybe this will also end up being foolish in a two years. We'll look back and like oh
47:06no, he's actually pretty good. I don't believe that actually. Um I I he's fine. He's he's an NFL wide receiver. That's what I believe, right?
47:16To this extent that he's scoring fantasy points, this feels like the most Travis Fulgham ass [ __ ] I've ever seen in my
47:23entire life where I do I like I think Travis Fulgham was a professional wide receiver at that at that point in time.
47:29And things just can shake out in a particular situation to where if you're just good enough you can you can put up a bunch of
47:40fantasy points. Right? But you have you know, there's a lot like you have to you have to get over a certain threshold of
47:46being talented. And I'm I was not convinced he was that.
47:49Uh as a matter of fact, I would have told you in July that I don't think he that I don't think he is above that
47:54line. That was wrong by a lot.
47:57But right? It's like every time Marvin Harrison comes back, it's like oh no, yep, there's Michael Wilson back to back to being Michael Wilson, right? When he
48:04had Kyler Murray, it was like who cares about this guy? Right? Like he's doing absolutely >> first read target community which I'm a
48:11part of.
48:14Like it's so clear that they are installing Michael Wilson as the guy where the play the plays are running through Michael Wilson.
48:24>> But they have no other al no other alternative. What are they Xavier Weaver? No, I mean it's not going to be
48:30the first read. That's what I'm saying.
48:31He's better than those guys. He's much better than those guys. But he goes first read, goes away, right? It's not Well, then then Marvin Harrison comes
48:38back, he's the first read on those plays and Right, Wilson's not To me, I mean it's not great coaching. Like maybe like
48:43mix up Clearly both these guys can play.
48:46So like why are you It's not working. [laughter] Well, it is working as long as Harrison's out. Or is it cuz they keep
48:52losing all their games?
48:53>> That's what they're That's the other that's the last thing that I was just going to say is I mean sustaining drives
48:57and helping your team sustain drives is is important. But they're they're down multiple scores every single game throwing 50 plus passes. Right? This is
49:06this is also like Cedrick Tillman E when James was back there. That's such a good comp. Where it's like >> this is this year's James, yeah. Cedrick
49:15Tillman is a professional NFL wide receiver and when [ __ ] goes crazy and other guys are hurt and your pass volume
49:23spikes, it's like that kind of player can do this what Michael Wilson is doing. Like I said, I was wrong in
49:29exactly like where does Michael Wilson like fit can is he capable of this? Like I said, I would have said no, that was
49:34wrong, but it's still also right? Like if you drafted Cedrick Tillman last year cuz you're like look at all those numbers he put up. It's like
49:41Well, look it didn't play out right?
49:42They're not it's not James throwing 50 pass attempts anymore. It's Dylan Gabriel and Shaddur Sanders and it just don't work. Right? It's just not and
49:49obviously some other things have changed.
49:51But, that's it that's this weird thing where like if we look back in two years and you're like Michael Wilson's on a
49:57new team and he's like you know, he he's the new like whatever Jahan Dotson on the Eagles or whatever.
50:02Like you know, he's out there he's he's not very good. He's a wide receiver in the NFL. I'm not saying that's what
50:07he's going to be. But, I'm just saying if we look back and you're like yeah, this was Travis Fulgum this was Cedric
50:11Tillman this was whatever. Like were you wrong like you were still wrong cuz Michael Wilson ended up being an awesome pick this year
50:19and that's I think that's one of the things that I at least I personally struggle with because right? We care about like we're analyzing these players
50:25all summer. Like I want to draft the good players. Right? Like why are we drafting you know, a lot of these guys
50:29is is is not just because like yeah, we they're a second round pick. That matters. But, also So, like most of the
50:35guys aren't rookies. So, we're like assessing how good is this guy? Right?
50:39Why did people draft Jaden Blue? Not really cuz they like Jaden Blue cuz their assessment was that Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders suck.
50:45Right? Which is fair. Which is totally fair. But, like that balancing act of like in dynasty you wouldn't touch you wouldn't have touched Michael Wilson
50:52with a 30-ft pole. Right? But, in >> I have him on a pretty good dynasty team. That's hilarious. But, he's he's
50:59on the >> [laughter] >> He's I lost I lost I lost the >> just like see him on your bench cuz I'm
51:03like never you know, it's like I It's like I was like Audrey Estime. I never thought about this dude. But, it's like
51:0814 teams so like I didn't cut him. You know. I have him on my two two two I I played three non-FFPC like three home
51:15leagues or whatever. That Michael Wilson's on [laughter] on I mean, I added him. But, I I picked him up on two
51:20teams and I'm starting him every week.
51:21It's just like well, if I'm going to lose all my my best ball players at least I can do well in these uh like
51:27he's just filling in for like I lost Malik Neighbors and I'm like it's fine.
51:30I have Michael [ __ ] >> It's I don't even I'd rather have Wilson to be honest. [laughter] Exactly. Uh Anyway, that but that's the conundrum
51:39right? I know you're big in the dynasty space. We talk about right? We do three-hour pods on rookies where we're like really trying to get to the to the
51:44nuts and bolts of like how good are these players and then in the best ball game sometimes that just like totally doesn't
51:51matter. You know, and then sometimes it really matters. Right? Like Puka Nacua was a superstar. And if you identified that Puka Nacua was a superstar,
51:58congratulations. Like you just won all the money. But, then sometimes it's like you were right. Michael Wilson's just whatever. Right? Cedric Tillman is just
52:05whatever. Like figuring that stuff and I don't know that we'll ever figure it out. But, that's it's it's such an interesting game. Cuz
52:11>> Cuz you're like how much how much firepower do you have later? Like do you have guys who can come on and
52:16and just be like the absolute you know, like had to have it players late or like are you and it's it's
52:23funny like Hayden's talked about this where like certain players are like on you know, paired with other players cuz it's like the
52:29same type of draft or tends to take these guys. But, like not doing that as much and you know, taking more out I didn't take any Alec
52:37Pierce. I think I've like one Alec Pierce team, right?
52:39Um Uh I took 10 Michael Wilson teams. I just checked. I have I have three Alec Pierce teams, 10 Michael Wilson teams.
52:46So, I was under weight on both these guys. So, it's it's more it's not like me saying like oh, you know, you should
52:52have drafted Alec Pierce like I did. I didn't draft him.
52:54But, it's like I'm trying to think through it for next year a little bit more of like yeah, like Alec Pierce and
52:59Michael Wilson they can be kind of chaperones in that same way.
53:04Um I didn't draft any Cedric Tillman. I didn't I literally did not draft Cedric Tillman once in Best Ball Mania. And
53:12but he was a little bit more expensive.
53:13And he so he was like coming off of one of the years where he was that same formula where it's like you
53:19you caught lightning in a bottle a little bit with James and the pass volume.
53:23And James is gone and they've got the quarterback situation has gotten worse.
53:27And I didn't want to pay for that. Like I think so the price of it is important.
53:34Um But, but the archetype I think has been around >> of like you said the lightning in a bottle happening Yeah. for two seasons. I don't
53:43also don't have any Rashod Bateman who was at one point like one of my favorite players.
53:47But, I mean that it it's just clearly not happening. He was an expensive He was like what's the difference between Michael Wilson and Rashod Bateman? Now,
53:53of course it's like well, you just well, he I the only thing you would say and this is the this is another interesting
53:58part of it is like the only thing you would say is Ravens.
54:02Ravens. Right? Right? I don't think we want to pay So, if we're paying for Ravens versus Cardinals and not for the
54:08player Mhm. Um I think that's probably bad in this in this type of game cuz Ravens didn't doesn't mean what it did at the at the
54:15beginning of the year. And Bateman No.
54:18No.
54:19No.
54:19No, it doesn't. Good lord. [laughter] Yeah. They And Bateman had been has been okay. But, um we all knew he was the number two wide
54:29receiver probably the number three option on the team.
54:33>> [clears throat] >> So, uh yeah, I mean I think figuring out like these guys who I mean, Hollywood Brown was another version of this
54:43uh who I I took a little bit of but not a ton of.
54:47Um Right? You're No one was saying how like you could >> of those teams actually. You could certainly like if you you can make a
54:54case for anyone, right? But, like you could certainly I guess make a case of like Hollywood's been banged up and all
55:00you know, whatever. He's going to bounce back a little bit. And like I sure I'll listen to it, I guess. But, there was no
55:05like real tangible argument of like Hollywood's just a stud and you just draft him.
55:10>> of expensive. And he was it was a he'll he was the the classic chaperone of he'll produce while Rice is out and then
55:18who cares? But, it's like Well, what he doesn't produce when Rice is out.
55:22>> Right.
55:23Cuz then he's just useless. It reminds me of I I always remember this because uh uh I I know like Grech was on it. I
55:32remember talking to Grech like about this player. This was the year uh Javonte was on still on the Broncos but coming off the the bad knee injury.
55:41And so, the premise was they signed Samaje Perine if you recall the Broncos.
55:45And the premise was exactly that. Well, Javonte is like maybe going to start on IR. Going to be they they paid this guy
55:51in free agency, right? A very Hollywood type of of situation. Like we kind of like the Broncos, right? This was Russ
55:58and all that. We kind of like the Broncos.
56:00And so, it's like well, he's you know, he's he's probably not going to be anything in the fantasy playoffs. But, as like zero hero running back type
56:07bros. Like this is the kind of guy theoretically that you think that you need. We're so bad. Like this is like
56:13kind of my chaperone thing is like you said like Michael Wilson and Alec Pierce were awesome chaperones.
56:18When did anyone ever talk about Michael Pearson and Michael Pierce? I just put them into Just make them one. That would be Now,
56:25that would be a player I would be interested in Alec Pierce and Michael Wilson together.
56:30But, the like we never right? It's always like Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen. And I'm as guilty of this as absolutely anyone. Right? Yeah, yeah.
56:37It's just easier to think through it.
56:38It's like you know, or like the early running back cuz he's old. He's old or the early running back that we don't
56:43really think is that good. But, you I think he's the starter in week one. And then it's like you know who was the real
56:48chaperone in the Panthers backfield?
56:49Rico Dowdle who went in like the 16th round. You know what I mean? Like we're just not very good at that. That's
56:55one lesson I think that I feel it's not just like a single season thing. It's like we come in every year and we're
57:00just like well, this guy's going to get me through the first four weeks. And it's like how accurate are you ever
57:05with that?
57:06>> It's more it's more about the guys who don't do anything all season even once are probably rookies.
57:14Right? Or are probably backups who you think Yeah. could you know, have contingent value. Like though it's more about like how many of those guys do you
57:23have? Cuz you're right. Like if you're if you But, if you're like building a team it's just like loaded with guys who aren't
57:31going to produce for most of the season and then it's like it's fine cuz I have Kamara. Like it's not fine.
57:38Kamara sucks.
57:39>> [laughter] >> You know, he's a turnover.
57:41He's He used to be awesome. He doesn't He's not awesome anymore.
57:44So, >> to say my boy Kendre also getting hurt when Kamara officially turned to dust and Kendre was playing I got some big
57:51board Devin Neal teams. Was he's he's on I didn't draft that much big board Devin Neal. I got We're riding the Devin Neal
57:57RJ Harvey season an explosion in in cuz I I liked Devin Neal. I think we talked about it liking him.
58:05>> I'm advancing three big board Devin Neal teams. Look at that.
58:09Let's go. Got to love By the way, I know I think we were I think we were >> one of I'm only expected to advance 2.4. So,
58:16one of them is on the bubble.
58:18>> [laughter] >> You got the Devin Neal game, too. And still still on the bubble.
58:23>> on the bubble. Uh God the the the big board. What a just such an insanely wild but fun Um >> Very fun.
58:31tournament. But, yeah, I you know, I don't want to keep going on this. We'll talk a lot about this over the course of
58:36the summer and stuff. But, I'm trying to right? Think now in this moment because after just like the last thing on this like
58:44you said, we'll know like who you need right? Who is the guy you actually needed in a few weeks. I mean, we'll
58:49know on Sunday to some extent like some guys that you needed cuz like somebody's going to go crazy. And it's one out of
58:5516 advance in Best Ball Mania. So, you better freaking have you know, that guy or pray that he's not in your pod,
59:01right? So, I like to like at least >> [clears throat] >> start to crystallize not necessarily some like lessons or takeaways. But,
59:08some things to think about. And in really just that like that blending like cuz it's really easy like you you talked
59:13about using the Sims and stuff. It's also really easy for the Sims to lead you down Okay, I'm going to I'm going to
59:18diverge on Burden. But, then you do a little too but, right? That you do a little too much of the like
59:24is just one right? Like late season guy.
59:26I know I'm being hyperbolic. But, like it's just like oh, you did Burden and then you did all boring dudes. Right?
59:31It's like like, that doesn't work. I You know, figuring out how we can, like I said, have our cake and eat it, too, really,
59:38amongst this late season upside, but also drafting teams that can like realistically like we can realistically advance these teams while having an
59:45understanding that like who saw Rico Dowdle just taking TuTu's job, right? Who saw like Tory Horton was like helping advance my like Tory Horton
59:54helped advance my Luther Burden teams?
59:55Like, what the [ __ ] That doesn't you know, that doesn't make any sense. So, there's like a level of chaos that we
60:00have to acknowledge, but we also still want to try to learn stuff and I try to do it now cuz like our brain's
60:05going to be rotted in 3 weeks where we're like, yeah, Bucky Irving scored 50 fantasy points in week 17. Like, what's the lesson from
60:11that? Like, [ __ ] nothing. Like, I you know, I don't know.
60:14>> Yeah.
60:15Well, yeah, to me and and with the way I draft the sidekick it is kind of like I'm sort of saying like, no, like even
60:21compared to, you know, like what we think as a collective at like up like I'm I'm like TuTu's going to be the
60:28truth by the end of the season. So, give me give me some extra TuTu cuz that's like one of the guys I'm I'm just really
60:33betting on to exceed expectations even relative to other people who are high on TuTu. Um and then so that's going to be kind of
60:42some firepower, but then, you know, you are you are going to need some some dudes that um produce and help you get there in the
60:51first place, but there's there are a lot of different options that you can pick from. So, like one thing I think I did do a better job of
60:58this year is um and Parker's like this is something that we have the sidekick kind of helping just reminding you of even if you're not
61:05always uh following exactly. It's reminding you that, you know, hey, there's like a number of different options in later in the draft that you
61:12can pick. Like, I probably had the those 10 Michael Wilson teams like I probably those probably zero Michael Wilson teams a couple years ago or 3 years ago where
61:20I'm like, totally I'm not drafting Michael Wilson. But, it's like, hey, like actually this guy could be useful on this team cuz you have you have a
61:27bunch of rookies. Like, you this is a an RJ Harvey Trayveon team and like in your brain you're like, yeah, I'm going to crush all season with these
61:35guys. I don't know if you heard, but like Harvey is the starter in Denver. Um and then it's like, actually he's not
61:40and now this team's I mean, I remember checking teams in like week 7 and 8 and be like, I don't have any running what I
61:45literally don't have running backs. What Who are my running I said, oh, Harvey.
61:49Harvey's on this team.
61:50So, you know, you but you know, the way we have that um the way we had it ranked it's like that's
61:58you the Sims would have been a little bit less they they would have been more skeptical of Harvey as an advance rate
62:03piece than I would have been personally.
62:05So, it's it helps.
62:07Yeah, it just kind of keeps you honest a little bit that way. Um but I think, you know, at the same time
62:13if you're just betting on like one guy it's like, oh, it's fine cuz I'm like I'm hammering at I'm feeling that would
62:19have worked and it would have worked and then it didn't work at all. You know, so you you you do want to I think mix up
62:24these bets and then also like be incorporating a number of of those types of bets on any given team because like, dude, Michael Wilson we're
62:31talking about as a chaperone. Michael Wilson might be the nuts in the playoffs. Right. Right. Like, he might be the guy. And and it's like, who would
62:39have thought that? So, and and we've had this before with Zay Jones, you know, who I was like, Michael Wilson's back up at the end of
62:46the season, Yeah, that's right. Coming full circle.
62:50>> [laughter] >> But the year he signed with the Jaguars and they didn't have any receivers, he was like the guy I think in week 15.
62:56Dropped 30. Or one of the guys. Huge huge helpful piece is a late season hammer, which I would have, you know,
63:02which I was shocked by at the time. So, that that archetype I think does have value.
63:06Um and then you have the the running backs, you know, the running back side of this is so interesting cuz you mentioned
63:15Dowdle being a guy who is like is like literally an advance rate piece. We'll see. I mean, he he honestly might just be an advance rate
63:22piece. It's possible he doesn't really do much going forward. Yep. Uh cuz cuz Hubbard's kind of coming back up. So, some of these contingent guys
63:29Yeah, you think they're they're in a season plays they might not be.
63:33Some guys have had their run. Like, if you happen to have a Tucker, he was an advance rate piece. The Sean Tucker
63:37would have been an advance rate piece.
63:38Rashad White's not even a great one, but he's an advance rate piece. You mentioned uh like you're looking at teams and not
63:44having running backs. I lost my last eliminator team it's week 14 in week 12. And uh it was an it was
63:52it was it was a it was a really nice run. If if you recall, it was a Jamar Chase team and the [ __ ] got suspended.
63:58Uh you know, we get to like there's like 60 teams left or whatever and I lose my first round pick to a suspension cuz he
64:03spit in a dude's face. Uh but it it didn't ultimately really matter, but it's funny you say that because
64:12you can like you can put together teams that just like like you said, you look at it and like, how is it like I dude,
64:18this is the eliminator. This isn't just like, oh, it was advancing like you survived or what like I'm obviously I'm surviving in the eliminator, but the
64:24running back room was it was I mean, Dowdle was carrying it, but it was like Dowdle, Algier, like Chris Rodriguez, Mhm.
64:35um I'm trying to think. Charbonnet, whatever. And it's like none of you know, Dowdle was a good pick for at least at least for a while, but just
64:42generally a good pick. And Sean Tucker.
64:44I think Keaton was on like Keaton Mitchell was on there, whatever. And you're just like, none of like you don't look back at the season. This is one of
64:50my favorite things about best ball like you were just like we've been talking about like Jack Bash. Like, nobody says yeah, if you didn't have Jack Bash,
64:56close your laptop.
64:58>> [laughter] >> But like, you know, that's what happened. You look at I I drafted seven [ __ ] running backs on
65:03this team. And there's not one besides Rico Dowdle where you're like, it was a zero running back team, which also I was
65:08told you can't do in eliminator. You're like, none of them look like smashes, but it's like, I don't know. Algier popped up for
65:14one of his good games, right? Survives.
65:16Dowdle has a couple of big games. Sharp scores a touchdown. Sean Tucker pops up for the 30 ball, right? In the the Sean
65:21Tucker week I think I used Keaton's like 1.6 or whatever at RB2, but Sean Tucker goes for 35, who gives a [ __ ] right?
65:29When you have decent pick-ins and all that kind of stuff on the team. Trey McBride on the team. It's like, there's
65:34always that there's that weird part of it, too, where in redraft, right? We have to set our team we have to set our
65:38lineups. So, it also like really the hits are so are like the season long hits. Whereas in this it's like, dude,
65:46Tyler Algier is a [ __ ] awesome pick.
65:49Like, awesome pick.
65:50>> Yeah. And Bijan has Bijan's getting 25 touches every every week, but Tyler Algier >> TuTu was in my lineup multiple times,
65:56you know. But TuTu is just I think TuTu is still like it didn't work and it kind of still worked. At worst neutral. Like,
66:02he's like a neutral pick, right? Which is like, man, it what for a rookie who doesn't really see the field that much,
66:07that's an incredible that's an incredible win. So, like there's always just that weird stuff like in the best ball space just
66:13you know, where like the blending of scores is like I Tyler Algier and it's actually like the starter didn't get hurt and I like got
66:21to the top 50 of the eliminator. Like, what? How that doesn't make any sense.
66:26Yeah, I know. I think yeah, I mean, Algier has a positive advance rate. He's He's like 18% and hasn't it didn't work, right? So, that
66:36that it's it's a great point. Like, these guys who it doesn't work it still kind of works.
66:41That's um now TuTu only has a 13%. So, he's he has hurt your your times.
66:46>> are drafting TuTu, so And the slappies are drafting and we're pairing them.
66:49It's It's actually cuz he was paired with Jaiden Blue too much. He's paired >> [laughter] >> Well, you He hasn't been a great pick, but
66:59like kind of What did you say? That would that would be another one. Who do they play in week Who do the Jags play in week 17? I've
67:05forgotten the the it's >> it's ETN has been such a smash, you know, I I don't have enough of him, but
67:10um I have some. I have a little.
67:14Yeah, me, too. I have just a sprinkle. A little sprinkle of Just enough just enough to where I can at least search
67:19the ETN teams >> Yeah. Okay. Okay. It it I don't really want him to go crazy, but there are worse there there's worse there
67:26>> ETN teams, but I'm advancing four of them. It's it's kind of like that type of year.
67:30>> Oh, yeah, the Colts. They play they play they play the Colts who they just ransacked and now have right Riley
67:35Leonard. So, yeah, ETN or TuTu could be pretty good. Yeah. Um But yeah, I mean, I think the the the the chaperone type of pick is
67:48probably like a like an ETN or something.
67:53Uh some of these running backs I think it can be like a little bit more like, you know, like a Tracy is funny as a
68:00chaperone pick because he was and then he wasn't and then he was again.
68:07Um God, I have I have way too >> very few Tracy teams. Is he Is he ever No, he actually has a terrible advance
68:12rate. That's funny.
68:14Um cuz Scat back was such a smash, dude.
68:16>> And Singletary takes all the damn touchdowns. Ty Johnson Tracy was finally starting to play well, but Devin Singletary gets all the like Scat back
68:23was a chaperone. Scat back was an 18% advance rate. So, he actually chaperoned some teams.
68:29It's crazy. I mean, JK Dobbins, right?
68:31JK Dobbins another like in that similar range of like And maybe maybe he maybe he profiled more of like that that would
68:38be the He's a classic we we correctly identified a chaperone.
68:43Uh and I'm assuming So, actually he's a neutral advance rate player, but you know, injury. He would have been above advance rate. That's an interesting one
68:52before we should talk a little bit about the actual fantasy playoffs.
68:55Where are you at on something like a pairing You like Harvey, but you also acknowledge that JK Dobbins is like probably going to get a majority
69:03of the work to start the season. Putting them together and and you know, I like it so much better with with the
69:09TuTu and a and a ETN compared to a Harvey Dobbins where Dobbins was To me, I was like, I want to be
69:17Yeah, price wise. I I want to be taking both guys. Um and I don't want to get cuz this is like something that you
69:23struggle with as a drafter where it's like uh like I don't want to Like I So I have 16 Dobbins teams
69:31um which is overweight, right?
69:34It isn't my expectation to be. Mhm.
69:37Yeah. So uh I think what what what is it? 12?
69:4212 would be your expected. Yeah. So I'm a little bit over I was a little bit overweight on Dobbins.
69:47Uh and I was I was pretty heavy on Harvey. So in the past I'd be like well it's Harvey. You know, I'm not going to
69:55draft Dobbins. But like being able to live in two two different universes in the universe we don't have uh RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins is actually
70:02really good pick.
70:03Um thinking through it that way.
70:05Uh I did a bit better of a job this year cuz yeah, I had I had uh I I keep I'm going to keep trying to pull up
70:13Harvey. Hang on.
70:15Harvey teams, I had 35 Harvey teams. So I was like very overweight on Harvey. Mhm.
70:22>> But then being able to also take an overweight position on on Dobbins and Parks, I was like I bet and this hasn't really happened
70:30cuz Harvey isn't very good, I don't think. But um you're like this Broncos team has to have a better running game
70:36this year. Like they've got a great offensive line. They've got a good defense.
70:41Uh Javonte then he goes is really good for the Cowboys. So I guess I misread this whole situation, but that was what I was thinking.
70:51There's We're all trying to figure out who did this. There's a a particular coach who uh is at the center of this that is
70:57possible we have uh slightly overrated.
71:00>> It's possible. Although Dobbins Dobbins ran decently. It's I think Harvey I blame Harvey for some of this, but >> Uh Har- I mean Harvey is We Harvey kind
71:07of is who we thought he was in just in the sense that uh he's a little Kenneth Walker-y from uh the way running style. Yeah. Um
71:18and just just he I wish he was more explosive if we're going to have him be Kenneth Walker-y though. Right, he
71:22hasn't hitting But that But but he tries occasionally.
71:26Right.
71:27>> too much where he doesn't hit the hole.
71:29He's going to bounce try to That's what he did at UCF. He was a constant bounce to the outside to try to hit home runs
71:34guy in college.
71:35>> Yeah. And uh that doesn't always translate, you know, at the or it takes time or you need to earn trust and and luckily
71:42for our Harvey bags uh it was forced upon Sean Payton and and Co. to give him more work and he's getting the work and so
71:50the the real life part doesn't ultimately matter that much, right?
71:54That's the beauty of the running back position is it matters. It obviously matters. Like watch Dameer Gibbs play, right? It matters. But
72:00you know, for for like Rico Dowdle is fine and he was putting up 30 fantasy points multiple weeks and was good last year,
72:07right? The I I think Cal drafted a veteran Cowboys running back, by the way. Drafted a veteran Cowboy Not not too much of a veteran. Don't draft Miles
72:14Sanders, but draft a draft the actual starter.
72:18Yeah, I think if as far as pairing guys it I want it to be cheap. So ETN and Tooton was kind of the the way to do it
72:25this year. Or you could have done Scat Abu and Tracy, I guess. Although even that wasn't like super cheap. That was
72:30like eight, nine or something like that.
72:31>> Eight, nine, yeah. But if it's both are in the double digits or one is like nine plus a double digits guy
72:36I mean I wish I had some Javonte, Jaylen Blue teams.
72:41I didn't really draft Jaylen Blue that much cuz I I just never bought him into I I just didn't think he was good.
72:46Uh I I just think if he was good he probably would have played at Texas.
72:50Um was was my read, but you know, I also didn't draft any Javonte. So that's like what if I what if I paired them both? I have six Jaylen
72:59Blue teams.
73:01And Javonte I probably have even less. I have one I have one Javonte team. That's one of the way too big of a stand. One
73:07of the few things that It's a good example. We both have those, right? Like like everybody does, I think, where you look
73:13back and you're just like and it's not just a result >> draft two Dallas Cowboys running backs including Javonte Moore? And the the
73:19results I I always struggle with it cuz people say, "Well, you're just being results-oriented." And sometimes I think other people are being results-oriented.
73:27But what the results can do in this Javonte example is a good one where it it can just be a reminder or like it can
73:34it can spur some thoughts where it's like we don't necessarily want to always just go hammer every next like next year's Javonte, right? That's what
73:41That's that we make fun of like who's this year's Kyren? It's like there isn't one cuz that's just how this stuff works. There's probably not a
73:47Javonte next year. But you can learn from like you said Like if I'm willing to draft Like just like if I'm willing to draft Michael
73:54Wilson. If I'm willing to draft Alec Pierce. If I'm willing to draft yeah, Miles Sanders. I understand Javonte is more expensive. But it's like
74:01But it wasn't that much more expensive.
74:03Cuz he got real cheap cuz everybody hated him. So >> Everyone hated him. Yeah. That's why I'm like why couldn't I have just drafted
74:08Javonte Jaylen Blue, Javonte, Miles Sanders and just taken two cracks at that backfield.
74:13Mhm.
74:14If there's if there's both if the first starter is outside the top 100 picks I do want to take more crack more cracks
74:22at two two guys on the same team. Mhm.
74:24Um I think that that's probably I mean it's tough because once it gets more expensive than that, I think it starts
74:33to get kind of bad pretty quickly.
74:36Um cuz you you run into like Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.
74:41Right? Like theoret- like that's okay, you know, I guess. But like then the Vikings suck.
74:46And you have two You run risks, yeah, of like this this is really bad cuz they're both losses cuz They're both losses. Cuz cuz the Vikings
74:56It feels like they can't be both losses and like It feels like that. You're like it's the Vikings. It's O'Connell. Like
75:00the you know, there's always a good back, right? Like Ty Chandler did stuff on the Of course, how could they possibly both losses? And then like just
75:07that's the the chaos, the variance part of it. Like who thought that the Vikings would be this bad and JJ McCarthy would
75:12be this bad? Like nobody was actually predicting that. So like but you you introduce that risk the pricier it gets, right? These are unknowns.
75:21>> Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason teams have a 9.3% advance rate right now.
75:26I would take that over some of my shitty running back rooms.
75:30>> [laughter] >> You're like it happened and one of them was like healthy the whole time. Right?
75:34I guess there was a Xavier Scott week, but basically you had a guy uh It's I mean Jordan Mason's pretty much been healthy the whole the whole
75:40season. It's just that Aaron Jones been in and out of the lineup. Jordan Mason had the I guess really just one I know
75:45he he had a okay game this week. But it was just the Bengals just the Bengals explosion that's probably helping keeping his
75:52uh uh advance rate. And they're still pretty big opportunity cost in those rounds where like that's where that's prime quarterback territory. Mhm. Um
76:00There's still, you know, some good wide receivers there. Like uh you know, there's there's there is still opportunity cost there. So there's
76:08I I mean frankly there's just other running backs that you could have hit on there as well. Um Yeah. But I think once a guy gets into
76:15that where it's like two cracks and only one of them's a top 100 pick or both aren't top 100 picks, I I do want to do more of
76:22that next year. The The Chase Brown, Zach Moss you had that for a minute um and then both of them got more expensive, I
76:31think, or at least Brown did. No, they switched, right? It was Moss Moss was ahead and then uh and then Brown and then Brown flipped them. They
76:39kind of It was kind of like one was always going in the 80s and one was going at like pick 100, but it was just
76:43by at the beginning it was Moss and yeah.
76:46Yeah. Yeah, I think the That was Tracy and Scat Abu this year, right? Scat Abu was going ahead.
76:52And then Scat missed like the whole all of training camp and it was like, "Oh, yeah, Tyron Tracy is the starter." And
76:58then the other interesting thing about that is like I don't think you and I particularly like we're like worried about Scat Abu as a player, but you
77:05talked about draft capital where it's like, "Ooh, he's missing all of the summer." And he was a fourth-round pick.
77:11You know, he's not a fourth-round >> a little nervous during that period, but then I I quickly got back on board once
77:15he once he was >> And I didn't get back on board enough and that's the interesting part. The last thing I wanted to bring up is
77:22so like De'Andre Swift could have been included in this range of the draft. He ended up getting really I Jesus Christ
77:26on his team. He's team. He's team.
77:29It was crazy.
77:30But uh an interesting other But also I'm I'm a little bit more um thinking that this is uh something we should sink our teeth into every year is
77:42like the the camp Right? So sometimes you get your Corey Kluber-y where the drumbeat is maybe not so good. I'm not totally convinced it's
77:51all his fault. But also like if you recall the Kyle Manongay stuff. Like I know you're in the Coach Speak Index
77:57Discord, too. And he would like post like almost like jokes about like days since they mentioned Roschon Johnson at Bears camp or whatever. And it was
78:06like, "I don't know, man. They're talking about Kyle Manongay every single day." And like talking about >> drafting him at the end. I I was not
78:12into Manongay as a prospect kind of for all the reasons that if you watch Manongay you like you see like the
78:18ceiling is capped. Yeah. But like he does his thing, you know? He definitely does his thing. And I didn't give enough
78:24credit for that. So I started drafting Manongay at the end, but yeah, he's God, he's you're like what are they The Bears backfield was always such a
78:33conundrum cuz I was like it can't just be De'Andre Swift. No.
78:38But what is what else is it going to be?
78:40It can't be Manongay. But isn't that Yeah, isn't that when you don't I'm not saying to draft him You said Yeah, I
78:45think you probably played this well.
78:48But you didn't believe in Manongay.
78:49>> Played it okay. They shoved it down your throat. Cuz I drafted some Swift. Right?
78:53This this isn't like a we like kind of like this guy. This isn't You remember This is what got me I actually drafted a
79:00bunch of Javonte and then I backed off at the end because you remember the one quote from from Shanahan where they were
79:06asking about the backfield. Javonte had been working as a starter all year, but he wouldn't stop talking about everybody.
79:12Right? Miles Sanders vet, we trust him, whatever. Jaylen Blue super explosive.
79:16We like to use Kavontae Turpin in the backfield. You know, we got to get him We got to get him touches. Uh the
79:22whatever. the Deuce or Malik like he literally talked then he get Hunter Lepke. Baller. Right? He just Hunter like he would always
79:29Yeah.
79:30Which got me cold feet about Javonte. Me too. I was like it's going to be split.
79:34It's going to be gross. Exactly. It's not going to feed anybody. And they fed the [ __ ] out of Javonte.
79:38>> Which was clearly wrong. But the Monongai thing was like they shoved like Ben Johnson was shoving it down your throat for 3 months. Like I'm telling
79:45you we like this kid.
79:47Like I'm telling you we like this kid.
79:49And so eventually it just becomes like at what point do we stop pretending we know better? And sometimes we you know,
79:56that's another one of those weird things like how many rookies are right versus these chaperone city takes. But it's tough too with Monongai. Like Monongai I
80:02have on and I don't think the team's going to get through but it's a team that has been kind of on the bubble for
80:06me at 555 over on DraftKings and it's like Um I think it's actually dead now but it would had Rico Dowdle and Monongai
80:15and you know, some other stuff but that was like oh this is actually like a really fun now. This seems like they're
80:20a running back team and I had those guys and you know, a few others but um 3 4 weeks ago I was like oh my god. Like
80:26I I got I got the the guys you want.
80:29Mhm. But so I I have a little Monongai but then the problem with Monongai, right? Is that he was never in line to
80:37be the starter. So you always had to pass D'Andre Swift and say what you want about D'Andre Swift and I've said a lot
80:43but he's like way more talented physically than Kyle Monongai. He's got way more receiving ability. He's so much more explosive. And I mean Swift has
80:53been much better than I thought he'd be as far as consistency goes. Ben Johnson's even talked about how he's bought he's
80:59way more bought into the system this year.
81:01Um and so and Swift has been a good pick.
81:04That's the other thing. Swift has been like a the key yeah, Swift has a I think a 20% advance rate.
81:11Uh Is that what I mean? I'll check that in a minute.
81:13>> And whether or not his advance rate is good. I mean he's he's just he's just Yeah, he's been a good pick. fantasy
81:17points. He's just been very very good. Absolutely. Yeah. So then Monongai is Now obviously we would know we know Swift's actually 22%. We know
81:26that if Swift's were to get hurt in the next couple weeks that Monongai would be an absolute smash. So he's been a really
81:31good >> We've already seen that. We've already seen that. Yeah. Process-wise he's been a great pick but it's just it was tough
81:36for me it was tough for me to get on board with because it's like this isn't really a committee, you know, like Mhm.
81:42I have to believe in the talent of the player to take the backfield away from someone else and I just really don't.
81:48Um and I'm still not sure I do.
81:51You know, he's like more he's more Zach Charbonnet than he is like someone who's going to like come take the backfield.
81:56>> He's getting better. There's it that's the interesting thing about running backs is we kind of view them as like finished products generally and I think
82:03that I don't think that's like wrong generally as you kind of are what you are as a running you can get better
82:07at certain things, right?
82:09He is he's he's notably more like more decisive and that's his thing, right?
82:14He's a downhill smash like you said Charbonnet like smashmouth type type runner. He's not going to like it yeah, the RPO Monongai ain't bouncing it to
82:21the outside, right? And beating people to the pylon.
82:24But he's been significantly better, right? And if He's been good. He's been good, yeah. has has gone on but I think
82:31that's where and This is like this is it, right? This is the whole best ball conversation but like those are the guys
82:38that like where you and I are like we end up like you were like okay, yeah, I think it's time to draft Monongai where
82:43I'm like like like my ears are like perking up the moment in July that they're like yeah, we love Kyle Monongai
82:50and I'm like oh.
82:52You know, I and then like I'm willing to like that right? But that also it leads me to like I mean I have a bunch I have
82:5730 BBM Kyle Monongai teams. Feel really good about that, right? But it also leads you it's we talk about like paying
83:03a tax is like should I have 25 of those to limit my Jaylen Royals, right? Or should I continue right should it and I don't
83:11know what the right answer is. It just takes it takes me more. Yeah. And I I think for me too I'm definitely
83:19sometimes I just can believe in a guy a little bit easier than some other guys and it's a personal thing like 2 years
83:25ago I saw it with with um Tyron Tracy who rated like crap in my model but I was like yeah, but he I know why he rates
83:34like crap cuz he was a converted receiver. He didn't have enough of a sample. 25 years old.
83:39Yeah, he's all like he doesn't but he's like but I can picture how it still works. So I'm going to just draft him and not
83:46worry about it. Um and you know, and then you draft a bunch of Vadol who's like a terrible pick but then of course he's now, you know, a
83:55great pick. So it's you know, some of these things is it's like so funny like Vadol should have been a smash last year
84:01actually. I got roasted, right? Uh from the YouTube commenter multiple times. He has not let me live down the fact that I
84:08didn't really like Brian Thomas Jr. that much it before [snorts] his rookie season, right? Like I was light on Brian I had I
84:14had concern like he was talented of course but like I had concerns, right?
84:18About Brian Thomas Jr. And just, you know, after one season was like you are a [ __ ] idiot, you know, whatever and
84:24I'm like I yeah, you're right. You're right. You're right. I was and now we look at this year and it's like well,
84:29right? And I remember I remember I put out I think one of the like uh the Twitter accounts that dunks on people or
84:36whatever uh I had put out before Tank Bigsby's rookie year that I thought Tank Bigsby was just straight up better than Travis Etienne. And you want to
84:44talk about a [ __ ] roller coaster that that one was. Like could not be more wrong. Like [laughter] Tank Bigsby like can't catch, can't get
84:51on the field, whatever. And then the year second year it's He was better at second year. He is better than than
84:57Travis Etienne. And then the third year and then the third year >> [laughter] >> Yeah. So but that's that's like another
85:04like interesting part about this that I'm also trying to learn for myself is like you can be right and you can eventually
85:11be right but you're wrong right now. You can be wrong right now but be right down down the road and there's just
85:18introducing I want to trust myself and because I think overall it's a net positive, right? I want to trust acting on news. I want to trust my prospect
85:27evaluations but I also want to operate with a level of humility. Yeah. You know, that is like >> Yeah. you're not going to be right about
85:33everything and like there's going to be that there's also got like Travis Etienne where there's this win condition that we're seeing right now. It's like
85:40you don't really like him but there's clearly right like Javonte Williams is another one where people, you know, would be stubborn about like he just
85:46sucks. I don't care what you say. He just sucks and it's like yeah, but what if you're wrong? Like we're seeing what
85:51happens right now if if you're wrong, right? About Javonte Williams.
85:54>> one of the things that's tough is when you're wrong about it with like so I was optimistic on Javonte in 2024 coming off of the knee injury
86:04his second year off the knee injury.
86:06Might be better behind a good offensive line and then like you know, Javonte was like not even startable, you know, in like
86:14it's just there wasn't any competition.
86:16It's like should we start the Javonte this week? He's like god, I I don't I don't think >> [laughter] >> What's the point? You know, like he's
86:22maybe scores a touchdown. Like he's just doing nothing. And then so now you're supposed to believe that he's going to like take over the backfield in Dallas
86:30like and look better. It just seems so implausible.
86:34But obviously, you know, some of some of my feelings about how likely that was were was tainted by having been optimistic that it could happen the
86:43previous year and then it doesn't doesn't happen and you're like no, like it's over. Like you know, a microcosm of that this this week would
86:49be JJ McCarthy. I was like I've been kind of willing to be optimistic about his ability to take advantage of bad
86:56matchups as like a cheap DFS quarterback and then this this week I was just like I'm not doing this again. And then this
87:01was actually the week to do it. You know, it's like I If I had written him off, if I had been
87:05like I'm not doing JJ McCarthy and then and been right this whole time, I I I bet you I would have been more willing
87:13to be like cuz you get you almost get like the parlay of being right every time. So you're like all right, I'll
87:18play him this week now that everyone's off of him, you know? And so I think that you know, that that's one of those
87:24biases that's that's tough where like you used to be in on this guy and now you got another piece of negative
87:30information and you're just like no, dude. Like there's no this just isn't happening.
87:35You're not you're not fooling me again.
87:36I think that's a that's a really dangerous one.
87:39Um and what like probably when we need to think about too with like the Vadols of the world where those rookie running backs who just
87:46don't do anything and then they suck.
87:47They they suck, right? Like and this happened with Tank Bigsby. This happened with Chuba where you just get written off and it's like this dude's nothing.
87:55He's never been anything. He was a day three guy. He he's got an opportunity already. We've seen it. He's he's bad.
88:02And they get another opportunity later and they're really good. Um So yeah, I mean what the one guy I was going to bring up
88:10this year that was easier for me to see compared to Monongai was Brechard Smith.
88:14And like not that much better of a prospect than Monongai even in my stuff but I was just like um you know, he's he's a pass catcher.
88:21He's on the Chiefs, you know, you so he could be the Jerick McKinnon by the end of the season. He could have a role and
88:27it's like clearly not going to happen.
88:28But he's someone where in the spirit of of a Vadol I might I might go back to the well.
88:36>> [laughter] >> Depending obviously depending on uh you know, how training camp plays out with him.
88:41It's actually a really interesting concept and I've thought about a lot about that as well where like it the Kamani Vadol syndrome, right?
88:50It's like Munchausen syndrome or whatever. Like I I I don't know what to do with this thing.
88:57And and I don't want to like like and like over index on this crazy Kamani Vadol outcome but there is something to
89:04be for like growth is not linear and we give up and we do but we do the opposite a lot too, right? Or at least I
89:14sometimes sometimes we're very stubborn but sometimes you're also like damn, I was way wrong on that guy last year, right? Like totally wrong on that guy
89:22and he was actually very good. And we don't we don't hold we don't hold to our priors. We're like I I
89:27I still kind of think maybe I was, you know, he he isn't all that good.
89:31And maybe this is just me, right? But you'll be like, so here's an example.
89:34Last year I thought Darnell Mooney was a terrible pick >> [snorts] >> on the Falcons.
89:39We it was like I memed him. There was a debates with him in the the Discord cuz I hated him and
89:44other people liked him. And so I put him at like 275 in the rankings for fun just to troll people.
89:50And he was the one I don't know why he was the only guy I did that with. And naturally he dunked all over me, right?
89:54Just straight dunked all over me. And so this year I Yeah, the perfect Shep run.
89:59Could have used him.
90:00This year I was like, okay, so I was wrong, right? I was wrong about Darnell Mooney. And so, you know, he's going to
90:06be and then it like then he was like plummeting in drafts and so I'm like, I'm going to buy this Darnell Mooney
90:11dip. And it's like, no, you don't like now you look back and you're like You just provided exit liquidity for the
90:15Darnell Mooney drafters from like It's [laughter] like they all knew to get out. It's like I love this sale on Darnell Mooney.
90:22We don't want to be the kids the kids at the, you know, my my niece is is six and she's she's really into
90:29soccer. But the you know, the kids at the soccer game that just they all just huddle around the ball, right? They all
90:34just chase the ball. Nobody goes One person went on the other side of the field, you would score, but none of them
90:40have the like awareness. Like you're just chasing the ball. You're not chasing to where it's going, right?
90:45>> I skate to where the puck is going, not where it is. And like it's >> Let the record show I didn't draft
90:50Darnell Mooney a single time at this tournament. Yeah, and I'm an idiot, right? I it's so but it's so easy to do
90:56because you're like, okay, I have this new information now that says I was wrong about something or I was right about something, right? Both of those
91:04things can be true and you're like, well, I was right. So let's let's keep let's let's keep going back to that
91:09well, right? And it's like, oh [ __ ] actually, nope. That Tank Bigsby is useless, right? He's really really bad.
91:14>> Yeah, yeah. And it's I don't again, these are these are just things I'm thinking about. I'm these are not things that like I think I have
91:20figured out by any stretch, but it's always fascinating cuz like the the ups and downs like you could be right like
91:26was Tank Bigsby right? Was Tank Bigsby wrong? Was Kadarius Toney all right or was he wrong? And like I I don't know.
91:31>> Kadarius Toney was right. I don't know.
91:32Kadarius Toney was a good pick last year, actually. Even though we all thought he was a bad pick. I think he
91:36was a good pick because you you like you just can't We talked about the chaos of it like we just I think there's universes where he was
91:43he was an awesome pick last year. And maybe not because he did anything all season, but like at the end of the
91:47season he had a he, you know, he got hot. Like whatever he figured out this year, there's probably some universes where he figured it out
91:55last year, too.
91:56And dude is clearly good enough to, you know, to run really well behind a pretty bad offensive line, by the way, this
92:02year.
92:03And it was pretty good last year. So there's there's got to be there's just way too much chaos, you know, we're talking about how much chaos
92:10there is this year where Jonathan Taylor it's like the smashes smashiest smash of all smashes.
92:15And then maybe not even that good of a playoff pick. Maybe, you know, maybe not going to do that much for you once you once
92:20you >> gif. He did the If you did the Undertaker gif in reverse. [laughter] He closed He's a Remember when they set
92:29Undertaker's coffin on fire or whatever?
92:33When they set Undertaker's coffin on fire or whatever?
92:37>> [laughter] >> That's the that's the Jonathan Taylor season. It's like he's crushing in this match, but they he gets thrown in the
92:42coffin and they lit Yeah, yeah.
92:44>> it on fire. That's Riley Leonard and and the Seahawks are coming.
92:48Yeah. God. So, I mean, that's just >> [laughter] >> that's just crazy. That's just insane chaos. There's like clearly universes where Taylor's the guy you need in 2025
92:58the whole way.
92:59Um So, yeah, I mean, I just think that some of this stuff like to me like thinking through the process of it like
93:07cuz you see there's always people who are like oh, Cam Akers was a terrible pick because he got hurt. Which I mean like
93:14that's just Come on. Like you you have to be able to think past like >> argue specifics of every single season. You
93:21could argue he was the best pick on the entire board. Dude was an I mean, he's he's awesome.
93:27And obviously he ran with reckless abandon and was probably going to get hurt in some other way, but the way that
93:31he got hurt had nothing to do with his running style. It was just >> No, you would expect him to like have a
93:34neck injury or head injury cuz he headbutts everybody and tries to run all over. Not the way he got hurt. Yeah. Do
93:40you think it's good for Jackson Dart's career that Cam Akers is not around to encourage him to headbutt stuff? Can't be any worse. It can't be any worse.
93:49This dude is a [ __ ] Jackson Dart should have stayed at Ole Miss and got another degree. He's great. He's so fun.
93:55I'm excited for him. But like He's just getting laid out on the sidewalk. And he and he and he doesn't care. Like he comes out and they're
94:03like, don't you think, you know, maybe you should protect yourself a little bit. And he gives this [ __ ] like
94:07like he thinks he's like tough, I guess.
94:09He he has that like he has a lot of learning to do in that regard. You're actually not tough Yeah, you're actually
94:14not any tougher by getting yourself injured and hurting your and hurting your team. Like you could have stepped out of bounds and not one single person
94:21would have thought you were not tough, dude. Like Josh Allen can always remind us that he's actually a a superhero when
94:28he when he picked but he picked He's picking his spots now, but those spots are like winning games. Right? Like straight up. Like he just like, oh, how
94:37about I just win this game right now? He doesn't stay inbounds along the sideline to to just get absolutely [ __ ] for no
94:44reason.
94:46>> [laughter] >> Yeah. God. But I'm so glad Jackson Dart's in the league. He's fun.
94:49Kafka came out, too, afterwards and like he kind of like didn't say anything. So like the whole like Daboll's getting him
94:56hurt. First of all, Kafka was the offensive coordinator. The whole like Daboll's getting him hurt by running him too much and stuff. Like that got bumped
95:03fast. [laughter] Kafka like doesn't seem to care that he's not sliding, really. And Daboll has been saying since the preseason like
95:10Remember the Dart got hurt or not hurt, but like a got hit hard a bunch of times in his first preseason game even though he
95:16played really well. And afterwards the first thing Daboll says like he's got to be smarter. He's got to learn how to
95:20protect himself and all that. He was trying so hard to keep Jackson Dart healthy cuz he knows he's he's good, but
95:27my god.
95:28He's fun, but I don't know I don't know I don't know how long we're how many games we're going to get from Jackson
95:32Dart every year the way he plays. Yeah.
95:35All right, I got a I got a hard out in like a minute. Okay.
95:38Here's here's here's here's what I want to hear. What's what's the what's the thing in the fantasy playoffs that you're most like excited for,
95:47right? Like what do you want to see on teams or like what's a right? What's a thing that we're we're about to be We
95:53have one game left as we record this in week 14. In week 15 you you flip over teams in Best Ball Mania or DraftKings
95:58Milly or 555 or whatever and you're like, I want to see this.
96:02So, I want to see either Trey McBride or Brock Bowers or George Kittle
96:12turn in one of those weeks where you have the Not the you know, you never have to have it, but like where you kind
96:19of have to have it. And we have So, McBride is our best bet because he gets the Texans this week.
96:27Not so great. But then he gets the Falcons and then he gets the Bengals.
96:32And think about the passing If you get a Trey McBride team to the finals, >> [laughter] >> oh man, that could be good.
96:39Um so, he's he's a really strong bet to to be one of those dudes. You You also do have Brock Bowers getting the
96:46Giants in week 16, but he his schedule's pretty tough.
96:51Uh who do they play?
96:53I just had it.
96:55Um Philly, Houston.
96:56Philly, Houston. So, that's that's going to be tougher for you to get there um with him, but yeah, I would also be
97:04happy if it's George Kittle. They they get the Titans this week.
97:07Uh then they get the Colts, then they get the Bears. So, he's probably your best bet, actually. And I I mean, I just
97:13the the tight the elite tight end discourse. This is one of the classic I think week four or five or something,
97:20you get the like this is your your reminder that elite tight end is a scam type type tweets. [laughter] It's just
97:26it's just Like McBride has been an awesome pick.
97:30You know, like And and he he would be a much better pick if not for the fact that Jonathan Taylor happened to have that
97:36that ADP on that side of the board. If Taylor was a one-two pick um McBride's advance rate would be like nuts cuz he would have had the
97:43>> Jamar Chase, Trey McBride JSN teams.
97:45Like in every draft if you wanted. Every time you got the 101 if you if you wanted to do >> If you wanted it, yeah. Which we weren't
97:51taking JSN high enough, but um Yeah, McBride's at a 20% advance rate. I mean, he should be I guess you could you
97:57could say he he and probably is paired with Jonathan Taylor at a decent rate, but um I was taking McBride in the second,
98:03so it wasn't as easy for me to get him in the third.
98:06But [laughter] uh but man, I would just I would love love love for one of these elite tight ends to do one of the weeks that they
98:14really only they have access to where they just you know, go nuclear. So, that that that's something I'm rooting for.
98:21Um Of course, I'm rooting for my my guy Harold Landry to do it again uh tight end wise. But I just think it'd be
98:29fun if we if we get And then of course, it is fluky, you know, if these tight ends putting up that type of spike week
98:36in that week where we where where we've decided for this game that it counts more than week 12 or whatever, but it's
98:42still it's still be very fun because we've seen a couple times with McBride now that he scores touchdowns with Brissett and with Bowers um
98:51that they can they can just, you know, access ceiling that not a lot of other guys can.
98:56Uh I mean, the easiest slam dunk answer for me is if you could get one guy to week 17 it's Trey McBride and I'm not sure that
99:04it's particularly close for me. Let me just Yeah. I said on >> Bengals? Dude, the Bengals The Bengals stuff is so wild. So, they played the
99:13Bills this week, right? This If you want to know how bad this team is against the tight end position. And like the whole I
99:18like kind of hate the like defense first position stuff. And even I >> Especially tight end.
99:24>> But there's nothing I can say about the Bengals with tight ends that can ever like make any sense because it is it is
99:30every Hunter Henry 30 ball, right? Like it it just doesn't matter who it is.
99:36They go nuts. Here are the Bills they played three tight ends this week, right? Dalton Kincaid's dragging around his right leg around the field.
99:44Dawson Knox with Dalton Kincaid out there 6 for 93. Dalton Kincaid 4 for 51 and one touchdown. Oh, do you know who
99:52scored another touchdown? Jackson Haws tight end three for the Buffalo Bills. They combined for 11 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns the Bills tight
100:04ends did against the Bengals. What the hell would Trey McBride do?
100:07>> [laughter] >> In that game. On the 57 pass attempts that Jacoby Brissett will throw.
100:12That that's it for me for sure.
100:14>> Yeah, I I like literally have to run, but uh We're going to get out of here.
100:17Go get some Spike Week.
100:19Use 40% off Off The Line Drake Maye, of course. Use 40% off with code Leg Up at Spike Week. And we'll see you
100:24guys soon. We'll come back in another playoff week and sweat some best ball teams with you. See [music] you guys next week. Cheers.
100:30Later.
100:35>> [music]
