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2026 Rookie Prospects w/ Pat Kerrane and JJ Zachariason

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 39 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Apr 2, 2026

Published

Thu, April 2, 2026

27

Player insights

27

Players mentioned

Topics

Aaron JonesBlake BortlesBryce YoungC.J. StroudCarson WentzDalvin CookDamien HarrisDerrick HenryElijah HolyfieldEno BenjaminJadarian PriceJames WhiteJared GoffJeremiyah Love

Player analysis

Player insights

27

Aaron Jones

PositiveProjection37:42

Aaron Jones represents the upside outcome for EMTT Johnson—a player without massive athleticism who became one of the most underrated receiving backs in the league since entering the NFL. JJ Zachariason sees this as a realistic outcome for Johnson if he lands in the right environment with a team willing to give him significant workload.

Blake Bortles

NegativeProjection13:38

JJ Zachariason projects Blake Gortles as a mid-tier QB outcome rather than elite ceiling. Gortles is physically comped to Justin Herbert due to size, but Zachariason clarifies he is a much worse overall prospect than Herbert, making him a lower-priority target for early QB investment. Zachariason groups Gortles with Carson Wentz as comparable fantasy outcome profiles, conceptualizing him as a bigger version of Sam Darnold in his current system, implying limited upside. Best-case fantasy outcome comp is Jared Goff, who can put up strong weeks despite system limitations, though Zachariason expresses surprise Gortles would reach Goff's ceiling.

Bryce Young

NegativeProjection13:18

JJ Zachariason acknowledges Bryce Young as a rare exception to QB value retention, noting he's still a starter available cheaply and could provide usable production to fill Superflex spots at a discount, making him a viable alternative to investing early draft capital in unproven QB prospects.

C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection15:15

JJ Zachariason cites CJ Stroud as the primary historical example of a QB with a true spike in production after his rookie season, but cautions that such trajectories can go wrong, illustrating the risk of banking on second-year breakouts in dynasty formats.

Carson Wentz

NegativeProjection14:02

JJ Zachariason groups Carson Wentz with Blake Gortles as comparable fantasy outcome profiles for the QB prospect, suggesting a mid-tier QB outcome rather than elite ceiling.

Dalvin Cook

NegativeProjection16:57

JJ Zachariason projects Jeremiah Love's career arc as potentially mirroring Dalvin Cook's trajectory, where limited year-one volume gives way to backfield lead role by year two or three, positioning Love as a potential RB3 or higher in dynasty formats once he secures increased touches.

Damien Harris

NegativeProjection27:41

Damien Harris is cited as a positive comp for Jarian Price due to their Alabama teammate connection, but the comp is undermined by the fact that Harris 'didn't do anything as rookie year.' Harris is also noted as another Alabama teammate who didn't produce in the NFL despite high expectations, illustrating the risk of Alabama running backs in the draft.

Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection28:45

Derrick Henry is cited as a historical comp for day-two running back picks with low reception shares who successfully converted to prolific rushing careers in the NFL. However, this comp is explicitly noted as not applying to Jarian Price, since Price lacks the rushing backbone that Henry possessed.

Elijah Holyfield

NegativeProjection36:16

Elijah Holyfield is referenced as an athleticism concern comp for EMTT Johnson; Holyfield ran a 4.8 forty-yard dash, representing the type of poor athletic testing that can derail running back prospects despite other skills.

Eno Benjamin

NegativeRole38:39

Eno Benjamin functions as a waiver-wire pickup type with limited sustained starting opportunity. Per JJ Zachariason, Benjamin adds fantasy value only when getting significant work—typically as a backup or third-string guy who breaks into a starting role around week 11, produces points briefly, then fades. Zachariason notes he 'loved and still love Eno Benjamin' but characterizes his fantasy value as temporary and dependent on injury-driven opportunity rather than a locked-in role.

Jadarian Price

NegativeProjection16:20

JJ Zachariason projects Jadarian Price as the second RB off the board in the 2026 class, likely going in the second round though potentially late first round. Price's analytical profile is described as 'extremely weird' and an outlier for a day-two pick. Pro-rated reception share sits at 3% (third percentile), adjusted yards per team play at 10th percentile, and adjusted yards per team pass attempt at 12th percentile. While he posted good explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt via PFF, the combine revealed concerning metrics: he weighed 203 lbs (lighter than expected at 210-212 lbs) and ran a 4.49 40-time that doesn't align with his explosive run profile. Scouts are concerned about pass protection and that he's not an elite receiver. If Price isn't catching passes or excelling in pass protection, he's being drafted as a pure explosive runner—a limited role. Top Zap model comp is D1 Ronald with Jordan Scarlet secondary comp. Zachariason states: 'if Jarian Price goes to Seattle, it's going to be tough' to justify the investment, though he'd consider him in dynasty drafts at ninth round ADP or later. His draft capital projection of 50–60 is significantly lower than EMTT Johnson's 87, explaining the model's RB2 ranking gap.

James White

NegativeProjection36:24

James White is a comp for EMTT Johnson's receiving back archetype, though JJ Zachariason notes that White's success was scheme-dependent and may not translate to most other offenses or the current era.

Jared Goff

NegativeProjection13:38

JJ Zachariason identifies Jared Goff as the best-case fantasy outcome comp for the QB prospect being evaluated, noting Goff's ability to put up strong weeks despite system limitations, though he expresses surprise the prospect would reach Goff's ceiling.

Jeremiyah Love

PositiveProjection0:03

JJ Zachariason identifies Jeremiah Love as the elite anchor of the 2026 draft class—the only legendary performer prospect in a class that typically has six across all positions. Love is projected as a top-half first-round RB who will hit 17+ PPR points per game in one of his first three seasons; every top-half first-round RB since 2011 (excluding Ashton Gentry) has achieved this mark, including Trent Richardson at 16.99. Zachariason emphasizes that teams investing this draft capital will feed the player regardless of landing spot. The Zap model ranks Love's profile lower than recent comps (Ashton Jent, Bejan Robinson, Jamir Gibbs), but Zachariason notes the model has limitations in capturing teammate impact (Jarian Price's role) and that Love's advanced PFF metrics are phenomenal. Reception share sits at 12–13% (solid but not elite); adjusted yards per team play and adjusted yards per team receiving yards metrics are strong. Zachariason projects a Dalvin Cook-like trajectory where limited year-one volume gives way to backfield lead role by year two or three, potentially reaching 103+ PPR points per game in reddraft leagues by year two or three. From a value standpoint, Zachariason would not remotely take Fernando Mendoza over Love in any format, citing superior production and replacement value. Love is a very clearly first-round rookie pick in the 2026 draft class.

Josh Jacobs

PositiveProjection28:45

Josh Jacobs is cited as a historical comp for day-two running back picks with low reception shares who successfully converted to productive NFL careers. Like Derrick Henry, Jacobs is presented as an example of a low-receiving-share prospect who succeeded, though this comp does not apply to Jarian Price.

Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection14:02

JJ Zachariason notes the QB prospect was physically comped to Justin Herbert due to size, but clarifies the prospect is a much worse overall prospect than Herbert, making him a lower-priority target for early QB investment.

Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeProjection36:24

Kenneth Gainwell is cited as a comp for EMTT Johnson's receiving back archetype, alongside Michael Carter and James White, representing the small-frame pass-catching back profile.

Kenny Pickett

NegativeProjection13:10

JJ Zachariason cites Kenny Pickett as historical evidence that quarterbacks retain decent fantasy value year-over-year in Superflex formats even after disappointing rookie seasons, supporting the case for QB value retention as a strategic consideration in dynasty drafting.

Latavius Murray

PositiveProjection43:03

Latavius Murray serves as a career-trajectory comp for Mike Washington's 80th–90th percentile NFL outcome; while not a stylistic match (Murray had a very upright running style), his career arc represents a realistic ceiling for Washington's production potential in the NFL. Murray 'made a great career,' providing a positive reference point for Washington's best-case scenario despite his below-average college production metrics.

Michael Carter

NegativeBust35:18

Michael Carter serves as a cautionary comp for EMTT Johnson's archetype as a receiving back. Carter had a solid rookie season but then disappeared from fantasy relevance, illustrating the risk of small-frame receiving backs in the NFL.

Mike Washington Jr.

NegativeProjection41:33

Mike Washington is the last running back in the weekly starter tier, positioned as a bet on draft capital and athleticism rather than production. His advanced metrics are well below average: explosive run rate is 'really not that good,' adjusted yards per team play in his best year was 65th percentile, and reception share in his best season was 62nd percentile. At almost 23 years old, he tested well at the combine but lacks the production profile to justify his draft capital, making him a cautionary example of prioritizing traits over production. JJ Zachariason notes 'everything looks not great for Mike Washington' and warns the model has historically 'ruined ourselves' by taking trait-heavy backs without strong production profiles. Latavius Murray (career-trajectory comp, not stylistic) represents a realistic 80th–90th percentile NFL outcome ceiling for Washington's production potential.

Paul Perkins

NegativeProjection39:19

Paul Perkins is listed as a comp for EMTT Johnson's archetype, representing the running back profile JJ Zachariason sees as similar to Johnson.

Sam Darnold

NegativeProjection14:20

JJ Zachariason conceptualizes the QB prospect as a bigger version of Sam Darnold in his current system, implying limited upside and suggesting he would not be a priority early-round pick, preferring to address QB elsewhere.

Seth McGowan

NegativeProjection41:52

Seth McGawan is positioned as an 'arbitrage' version of Mike Washington—a similar analytical bet but older and slightly worse across multiple metrics. McGawan outproduced Washington when they played together in college. As a fourth-round rookie prospect in the same draft class, McGawan will likely go three rounds later than Washington due to lack of market interest, making him a worse value despite the similar profile.

Tarik Cohen

PositiveProjection37:05

Tariq Cohen is referenced as a historical comp for EMTT Johnson's receiving back profile, but the current NFL environment has shifted away from that role; target share has moved from running backs to tight ends with heavier personnel, making the Cohen-type outcome less likely than in Cohen's era.

Tyler Ervin

NegativeProjection39:19

Tyler Irvin is listed as a comp for EMTT Johnson's archetype, representing the running back profile JJ Zachariason sees as similar to Johnson.

Will Shipley

NegativeProjection39:19

Will Shipley is listed as a comp for EMTT Johnson's archetype, representing the running back profile JJ Zachariason sees as similar to Johnson.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,012

0:01Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Crarane. Follow my content at legendary upside.com. With me today, JJ Jack

0:10JJ Zachares of lateround.com.

0:14It's early on uh on my end. I'm working on talking. Still still drinking my coffee. But JJ's here to talk through

0:20his late round prospect guide. Uh we're going to talk through all of the main relevant rookies um in this 2026 class.

0:30JJ, how's it going?

0:31>> It's good, man. I like that we've we've made this a yearly thing at this point where we can just dig in and and go

0:37through all these guys and, you know, it's another interesting class. Don't think it's as good as previous ones, but uh we we'll be able to dig in and

0:44hopefully find some gems.

0:46>> Yeah, that's where I want to start. Um before we do, I I do want to say we're recording this uh right after the day

0:54after PFF announced uh massive layoffs yesterday. And so just shout out to everyone over there. This is like a um

1:03you know doing prospecting like how could you not be leaning on the data that those guys have put together and the analysis over there has been awesome

1:13over the years. Um, it's, you know, it's helped me get more into fantasy, honestly, uh, the data that PFF has and,

1:21uh, and all the all the great content over there as well. So, >> just a, uh, really sad news and just

1:27wishing the best for everyone. Um, >> yeah. Yeah. Um, you know, I don't know what the future looks like for the

1:34company. Um, but I think that we can at least all agree that like it it changed the way we view stuff. It changed the

1:42way that we analyze this stuff. and um the the folks who have been there and that you know were let go yesterday, you

1:48know, hopefully they are able to bounce back fast and quickly. I sent a tweet out. I was like, if any of you are

1:54thinking about going out on your own, just go do it. You know, get out of the the uh the you know, the the the

2:01>> the grip of Yeah.

2:03>> the the uh the corporate >> overlords, if you will, and and you know, >> Yeah, for sure. For sure. But let's dive

2:13into uh the the class here. I guess the from o the overall view here for you I think uh consensus is that this is not a

2:24particularly strong class. Um but how do you view this class just you know are you like is it a fire sale for rookie

2:33picks or or is there you know kind of some interest here even though it's not the strongest? Yeah, I mean I think it's

2:40difficult to I think that the overall sentiment is that it's not a great class and so from a rookie pick perspective in

2:48in a moderately competitive league, it's probably not the easiest to sell like late first and get like the typical late first value for it. Um, I did some

2:55analysis on this using the Zap model, um, and looking at so like the way the Zap model works is that you get a score

3:02of zero to 100 for a player and then from there that'll categorize that player into seven different different categories just to kind of there's it's

3:10not like from one category to the next like there's this sharp drop off necessarily. It's just a way to to bucket players to talk about them a

3:16little bit easier. And so there's seven different categories. And what I did was is I looked at this year's draft class

3:22and the different categories at each position. And I compared that to 2011 through 2025, which is every other year that's in the Zap model. And so like for

3:30instance, legendary performer, which is like the top, you know, that's makes, you know, I'm on I'm on the the the legendary upside show right now. And so

3:37but but I couldn't say legendary upside, you know, I couldn't I couldn't have that as a category. That's been trademarked. Um but the the legendary

3:44performer category uh you know you don't get many of them but but for instance Jeremiah Love is in that category right

3:50now based on projected draft capital and so we have one of them in this class that's 04 more than what we typically

3:57have. We typically have 6 right but if you look down the line at running back we have fewer elite producers we have

4:03basically the same number of weekly starters and then every other group is below average. Now part of that is because only 21 running backs went to

4:10the combine. One of them was a fullback and one of them was Eli Hiden Reich who probably won't even be really a running

4:15back at the NFL level or at least like play the >> We need him to get listed. He's on he's a wide receiver on DraftKings right now.

4:20We need >> like it's bizarre like no one knows what he is, right? Yeah. And so, but he went as a running back so he's in the running

4:27back model. Um but regardless, you know, like like there were fewer running backs that were there, so obviously some of the lower tiered categories, there's not

4:34going to be as many of them. But that's also telling that it's not a great running back class, right? because there's not many of them that were

4:39actually invited to the combine. So, running back looks weak. Wide receiver looks beefy kind of in the middle tiers, uh, if that makes sense. You know, like

4:48the weekly starter flex play, these guys that we typically see in rounds two through fourish, you know, two and three, like day two picks. And I think

4:56the way that I interpret the data is that yeah, there's not as many like legendary performer, elite producer types. They're not like it's it's not

5:03that like I think the big three if you will if you want to categorize them that way you know I think there's other guys

5:08that I like at the top of this class.

5:09I'm just saying that they're not necessarily, you know, Malik Neighbors type prospects littered throughout, right? Um, and then, you know, but but I

5:18do think that what we're bound to see and what we're really seeing is that from, and I use projected draft capital

5:24from NFL mockdraft database, there are 11 when I did this study last week, there were 11 wide receivers that were projected to go uh in the first three

5:32rounds, day one and two. Yep.

5:34>> Which is more the the the highest number ti would tie the highest number since 2011. So, like what we're seeing is I

5:40don't think the analytical profiles are like bonkers for a lot of these guys.

5:45Uh, but we're getting volume. We're just getting a lot of them potentially with good draft capital. And so, since they're like average, some above average

5:52profiles, you know, analytical profiles.

5:54I think some of them will end up hitting, you know, like some of them will surprise us and just just purely

6:00because of numbers, right? Just because we have a lot of them. Um, and so I think the wide receiver class is fine.

6:05you know, I'm not I don't think it's like unbelievable, but I don't think it's a bad class. And then at tight end,

6:10uh I think it's probably an above average.

6:12>> I think it's a good class. I we'll we'll get to at wide receiver. I think it's a good class. I don't think it's a great

6:16class, but I think >> I think it's a good class at wide receiver. I've kind of come around on that. Um and I don't know. I think I

6:24think the wide receivers are getting a little bit painted with the same brush as the running back. Like >> it's a bad running back class. It's not

6:32an awful running back class because of the point you made about Jeremiah Love.

6:35Like we don't normally have Jeremiah >> Love, right? It's better than better than 2024.

6:40>> Yeah, it's been worse. Um, but it's not it's not a good running back class. And but I think the wide receiver class is

6:47actually, you know, it's it's it's better than if you just like opened a wide receiver class and were like, what's in here? You know, it's better

6:55than you I think would have a right to expect.

6:57>> I would agree. I would agree. I don't think it's as good as like I don't know like I don't think that the the top

7:03again it's like the the top end is good like I don't want to >> yeah we're going to dig into all these

7:07guys so like you know but like I think the top end is good >> I'm mostly thinking like you this is a

7:14class where >> it's a solid class overall but you can still poke a lot of holes there's not many like just flawless players that are

7:21out there >> like I think Tedro McMillan would be the number one wide receiver in this class still >> yeah probably

7:26>> you know if you just combine the last two years Well, yeah. Well, we well >> Well, we'll see. Yeah.

7:30>> From a modeling perspective, I think there's an argument against it, but from a more subjective perspective, I would agree. Yeah.

7:36>> Okay. So, >> you know, from that perspective, it's not like some amazing class, but it there's a there's >> there's a few different profiles that I

7:44think are pretty good. Um >> Yeah. Yeah.

7:47>> Even though there's no there's definitely no Malik Neighbors in in my view, and I think you you would definitely agree there. Yeah.

7:53>> Agree. And then at tight end, I think it's, you know, there was there's a lot of them, right? Again, goes back to sort

7:58of the opposite of running back where we had a ton of tight end invites this year. Um, and this was the first year

8:02that we did tight end writeups in this in the late round prospect guide. Uh, Brandon Gdulla, who I hired on, kind of

8:08ran point with that. We we built a new model together, uh, tight end model, which is really cool. And then he did a

8:14lot of the writeups or he did all of the write-ups for the tight ends. And of course, it was the year that we had the

8:19most tight end invites since like 2004.

8:22Right. More profile.

8:23>> Welcome aboard.

8:24>> Yeah, exactly. So, but but I do think overall the tight end like I I loved last year's tight end class. I w it's

8:30one of those things in hindsight I really wish I was more vocal about that, you know, as an analyst. Tight end

8:35wasn't it tight end always is just kind of like a background position that you don't prioritize in these discussions and stuff like that. Um, but like

8:42objectively like I loved, you know, I I liked Fannon obviously, you know, Gatson was like you could look at the prospect

8:49guide last year and see like I have really short blurbs and it was like something along the lines of like good

8:54everywhere has some opportunity or something like that for for Gadston in the way that >> Yeah. I slept too much on Gadston

8:59because I didn't think I've been spurned so many times by the Gadston profile that I just didn't think anyone would do

9:05it.

9:06>> Sure. Yeah.

9:06>> You know, and they did.

9:08>> They did.

9:08>> They did it. But but like the high end like I like Coloulston Lovelin and and Tyler Horn were both really really good

9:13prospects and uh Terrence Ferguson, you know, like like it was a it was a a good class last year. I don't think this

9:19class is as good as that, but >> Jason Taylor's a starter. I don't think he's very good, but >> Right. Right. But he's he's still could

9:26get something. Yeah.

9:27>> Yeah.

9:27>> Um so yeah, solid class at tight end, solid class of wide receiver, bad class at running back was how how I kind of

9:32see it.

9:34>> Cool. Um, let's do running back first since that, uh, you know, it it won't take too long. Um, Jeremiah Love, uh, you know, you do have

9:45as a as a legendary performer, and I think there's, you know, this is not a controversial take. He's he's seen as

9:52kind of the not just like the the prize of of the running back class, but the prize of the entire draft class. um

10:00Superflex 101, even though Fernando Mendoza will obviously be the number one pick in the draft. Um and you know, sort of creates an argument that he could be

10:10the the 101 in Superflex. I don't really hear anyone making that and I'm certainly not making it. I would take Jeremiah Love. Uh what what kind of

10:18stands out to you about Love that puts him in this tier?

10:22>> Um I mean, first and foremost is just projected draft capital, right? Like we have to just be real about this. If you

10:28look at since 2011, we've had 10 running backs drafted in the top half of the first round. And excluding Ashton Genty,

10:34who's obviously only played one year.

10:36Every single one of them has hit 17 PPR points per game in one of their first three seasons. That includes Trent

10:41Richardson kind of. Trent Richardson was at 16.99. And so I hate that with that stat someone could fact check me and

10:48sell me that I'm lying because technically he didn't get to 17 uh because his rookie season was 16.99. Uh, but you know, he essentially got to 17

10:57PPR points per game. And it's a lot cleaner.

10:58>> You can round up on 99. Yeah, you're >> allowed. Right. Right. It's a lot cleaner to just say at least one 17 plus

11:04PPR point per game season. So, I mean, just from that perspective, like I I think that we can just say yes, this is

11:09going to probably go in a pretty favorable way, no matter the landing spot almost, just because teams that invest like this will end up feeding

11:16that player. Now, if I were to compare his profile objectively, you know, like with what the Zap model is saying to

11:23other running backs that have come out over the last, you know, 10 years or so, five, five, maybe five years, like if

11:28you just look at like Ash and Jent, Bejan Robinson, Jamir Gibbs, it the the Zap model likes Jeremiah Love least of

11:35those guys. Um, but I I don't want that to like deter anyone from thinking that either I don't like Jeremiah Love or

11:42that you shouldn't draft Jeremiah Love because uh the marks are still good. And this is one of those situations too where, you know, a model isn't going to

11:50be like I have teammates score and stuff in the model, but like it's not going to be totally perfect in trying to capture

11:56the the true impact of Jarian Price in that backfield and what that all meant.

12:00Um, but yeah, I mean like he he doesn't have a glaring red flag analytically and that's that's the good part like the

12:07stuff that the Zap model is looking at because like at running back the Zap model will look at best season reception

12:12share that's not adjusted for anything.

12:14So, um, yeah, I mean, like his was at like 12 to 13%, which is solid enough.

12:19It's fine. It's not like elite. Uh, and then it looks at adjusted yards per team play and adjusted yards per team

12:25receiving yards per team pass attempt.

12:26Those are adjusted for age and, uh, and strength of schedule, and that's in their best season. So, um, so there's a

12:34little bit of an age adjustment, you know, program adjustment going on in there. And he's great in those metrics.

12:39Like, he's he's fine. I think the advanced metrics going back to the PFF discussion are phenomenal. You know, like that's where we really see, you

12:47know, a lot of the good stuff from from Jeremiah Love and it's just another it's just more evidence to show that he's

12:51probably a very very good player. So to me, he's the one in all these formats. I would not even remotely be taking a

12:58Mendoza over a player like Love because I think the not only are you going to get just as much prod like better

13:03production more than likely over replacement with a player like Love, but from a value standpoint, you know, and how the market might behave, there is

13:10good stickiness from like quarterbacks retaining value year-over-year, even if they're crappy. You know, like Kenny Picket retained decent value after his

13:18rookie season, you know, like like it it happens. Like yes, every once in a while we get like a Bryce Young, but it

13:24generally like these guys will will retain some value in Superflex. Um, but I I'm still like I I think that you can

13:30make the argument easily that some of the wide receivers should go over Mendoza just because I'm not sure that Mendoza >> I think they should I think I think they

13:37should go over Mendoza.

13:38>> He he to me it's like the best outcome is probably like a Jared Goff type player from a fantasy. I would honestly

13:44be a little bit surprised even if he's even if he's golf cuz golf like has this ability to actually put up pretty strong

13:52weeks that I think I'm not even >> tough in that environment for sure.

13:55Right. Like yeah right >> golf can I'm not sure he's like a true like point guard like that like he for

14:02me he comped to um uh well he comped to Justin Herbert because he's he's actually huge which is cool. I do like that and I think he'll

14:11have some some functional mobility. But um Carson Wentz, >> Blake Gortles, like that, those types of dudes, I think he's a little bit more

14:20>> he's going to be I mean I I I'm thinking of him as like big Sam Darnold, you know, in that system, which

14:27>> um you know, you wouldn't you wouldn't be considering the 101 for Sam Darnold, you know? No. Like I don't I don't know

14:34how much upside he really provides. I think he's he's he comped the Herbert.

14:39He's a much worse prospect than Herbert in my mind. So, I would rather if I need to, you know, I'd rather figure out

14:48quarterback some other way.

14:49>> Agreed.

14:49>> You mentioned Bryce Young. Bryce Young's still a starter. He's pretty cheap. You know, you could get like some usable production to fill the superflex spot

14:58>> for much cheaper. And then like take the guy who might be the 105 in a couple years in Jeremiah Love or you know and

15:05I'd be I think these other these wide receivers could be going really high as well in Superflex if they hit in in a

15:12year or two.

15:12>> Yeah, 100%. And I again there's a lack of just general mobility like probably you know we're probably not going to see

15:19crazy rushing from production from from Mendoza and >> that too is when you know >> we should be functionally mobile but

15:26>> Right. Right. And the only like I'm trying to think of recent history when we see that like true spike after a

15:31rookie season, the one that comes to mind is like CJ Strad, but you see you see how that can go south too and that's

15:36frightening, you know. So there's there's >> and you have to be careful with stuff like that, too. Like are you in a league

15:41where you can trade like it's it's not like you get to bank you don't go to like the dynasty banker and cash in your

15:48your >> trade no matter what. Yeah.

15:50>> Yeah.

15:51>> Like you need you need a willing trade partner. So if it's a really active league and you think but even then I

15:57mean I I still wouldn't be taking Mendoza one. I might take him like four or something. But but I I think he

16:04should probably be the 105 personally.

16:06Um I would take the three receivers ahead.

16:08>> Yeah.

16:09>> Um but for me with love uh I think the one red flag like analytically would be he

16:20didn't have a ton of volume. And so you look at like some of these guys. I I did like a little little deep dive into the

16:27guys who uh went round one and like broke them out into like, you know, the high volume guys versus the lower volume

16:35guys. And the lower volume guys, it's like it's Gibbs and then a lot of guys are disappointed. And I don't think Love

16:42is Gibbs. I do think Love is Love. Like I think like in two years I'm gonna go yeah Jeremiah Love and Jir Gibbs were

16:51the outliers here because Jeremiah Love was sharing with Jadarian Price who is probably going to be the second round second running back selected in this

17:01class could easily go second round could could potentially go late first although I think he probably doesn't. Um and they were in a position where they didn't

17:10have to just use Love a ton. And so when I look at his profile, I think this guy didn't get enough volume in college. If

17:18he gets more work in the pros, look out.

17:21And with his draft capital, that's very likely to happen. Exactly. So I I think that my thing with him is that maybe it

17:28starts a little bit like Dalvin Cook where he's not getting a ton of work year one, but by year two or three, he

17:37is the backfields. And at that point, you're you're talking about a guy who's an, you know, the 103 or even higher in

17:44in uh in reddraft leagues that year. So, >> I think there's like I don't necessarily he's not as clean to me as Genty was

17:52because Genty was just an absolute workhorse. And >> yeah, >> he got he got used that way last year even in a terrible situation like he he

18:01was still he was putting up decent weeks. This is the crazy thing too about running back and I I've said this a lot

18:07on shows this off seasonason because I think it just like really captures what we see from the position. But I have the

18:12year two model, right, where it looks at uh how a player performed during his rookie season. It combines that with his

18:18zap score and it tries to project how well they're going to play in years two through four of their NFL career. Right?

18:24If you look at year one PPR point per game numbers at running back, the the year one PPR point per game correlates

18:32worse to year two to four output than just zap score itself. So just the guy's prospect score, right? And so much of

18:39that is that if you look at day three running backs historically, who again because the day three guys would be the

18:44guys who have lower zap scores, right?

18:46Lower prospect scores. If you look at those players, the ones who break out, almost all of them, if not all of them,

18:53have their best fantasy season as rookies when they when they quote break out and then they start to trail off as,

18:59you know, for a lot of reasons, but they start to trail off in years two through four. So really what we're grounding to

19:04and what we need to ground to is just the the prospect score and how we like Ashen Genty still has a 100. He had a

19:10100 Zap score. He has a 100 uh year two score or like close to 100 because his score was so good as a prospect. And all

19:18the markers and the things that we care about as rookies are usually just volume based met like weighted opportunity type metrics as opposed to the efficiency

19:27stuff. And Genty had that like he was top five or six in in one of the weighted opportunity methods that I use

19:33and stuff. Like he was getting the volume like that all of everything like he checked those boxes the ones that matter. And if you can get a discount I

19:40think you should go after the discount because like the efficiency stuff will fluctuate year-over-year.

19:46>> Yeah. Especially if the offensive line stinks. The quarterback situation disaster. They fire the OC in season.

19:52Yeah.

19:52>> Yeah.

19:53>> So I I agree. Um, but yeah, I think I with love I could see you maybe there potentially especially

20:03the way I could see it not going great is if he goes as like a weapon to the Titans or something. Yeah.

20:10>> And they're like, you know, >> and and I have talked I've kind of joked about this. Someone actually tagged me

20:16uh Wes Doggy on on X tagged me. Uh he goes, "Here it is." Because Dan Orlosski has said, "We have to stop saying

20:24Jeremiah Love is a running back.

20:25Jeremiah Love is instant offense weapon football player." This is the stuff I don't want to hear at all.

20:32>> Oh my god. I hate it so much.

20:34>> Don't do it. He's a running back.

20:36>> So much running back, guys. I'm sorry.

20:38He's a running back.

20:39>> Hand him the ball. Yeah.

20:40>> Yeah. Because I I don't want if a team talks themselves into, you know, some kind of goofy ass role for him early on

20:48instead of just treating him as a running back, that would obviously undercut the draft capital a little bit, but that's you have to get kind of in

20:54the weeds to it's use it's basically like is there a coach out there dumb enough to mess this up?

21:00>> Yeah.

21:01>> And uh yeah, there is. But hopefully that won't happen. So um yeah, he's he's a great prospect. Clear 101. um excited

21:09to have him entering the league. Uh the running back two for you in in the Zap model is a bit of a surprise, but it's

21:18probably because of Jadarian Price's extremely weird analytical profile. So, I want to talk about him first. Um he's never

21:28going to be great like come up any model you come up with is not going to love Jadarian Price or you probably built it

21:34wrong. Yeah, you can, you know, like again I have a teammate score in mine and essentially what it does is that it

21:42says, okay, you had a Jeremiah Loveesque teammate and so therefore, yes, this number looks like this, but actually it should look closer to this. And then it

21:51just calculates based on what that closer to is. The thing the thing with this is that like Jarian Price as a day

21:59two pick is already an outlier based on his analytical profile, right? like if he goes day two and because of that I'm

22:06willing to have an open mind you know I'm willing to say >> you know this this we can't model this super super well

22:13>> my thing with price though cuz like look like the again going back to the metrics that the model looks at pro-rated

22:18reception share is 3% it's in the third percentile uh for that model running backs you know adjusted yards per team play 10th percentile adjusted yards per

22:26team pass attempt 12th percentile um and then yeah like he had some good advanced metrics like explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt

22:34uh via PFF data. Some of the other stuff wasn't necessarily as amazing, but it was still like he has a good advanced

22:41pretty good advanced data.

22:42>> The per touch stuff was pretty good.

22:44Although >> the the problem is the problem is that >> in these cases, this is actually one of the rare instances where I'm going to

22:52want to see what happens at the combine.

22:54Um and I think there's two things that were bad for Janarian Price analytically at the combine. Number one, he weighed 203 lbs, which was lower than what I

23:04think I think a lot of people >> everyone thought it was two listed 210 and I was like it'd be two maybe 212.

23:10>> Right. Right. If we got that that's and yes that does matter like weight matters. I know that you'll say oh love

23:16is too.

23:16>> Yeah. Right. Yeah. I know you'll say Devon Achan Jir Gibbs. like yeah but they had other parts of their profile

23:22that were very the model loves a Chan and Gibbs you know like but this is a different situation because we don't

23:27have >> so a doesn't split with Raheem Moer in his rookie year if he's 212 pounds instead of like 188 he doesn't you know

23:35>> right >> and he wouldn't have fallen in the draft either like >> Yeah. Yeah. And then he and then he runs

23:39a 449 which doesn't match up as well with the explosive run rate stuff and what and so and then when you look at

23:47and like I watch all these guys but I certainly after I'm done writing the guide I look at what other people what

23:52more like you know people with differing angles to prospecting are saying about these players. And the one thing with Janerian Price is that they're concerned

24:01about pass pro and that he's not necessarily like an elite receiver uh based on the sample size they're looking at and what they are looking at. And to

24:08me, I'm just like what what is good?

24:10Like we we know we know we know that receiving like the model is so hyperfocused on receiving because draft capital is usually kind of capturing the

24:21rushing portion of Yeah. of what matters. And so like a differentiator is the receiving aspect, especially for day one and day two picks. Once you get into

24:29day three, it's more wild west. There's not there's not as much actually the model will like convert and look more at

24:34uh adjusted yards per team play for day three guys as opposed to like reception share and stuff like that, right? Um so

24:42like Jarian Price, I'm like, okay, if he's not catching passes on the back field or you're worried about that, if he's not good in pass, you're drafting

24:48him as an explosive runner on the ground, right? And that's fine if that's the weapon that you want to use if you

24:55want to use him in that way. But again, going back to the combine, he was lighter than we expected and he wasn't

25:00as fast as we expected. And so to me, it's coming together. And I think it's hilarious that we're talking about price

25:06right now and I'm on your show because his top comp in the Zap model was D1.

25:10Ronald.

25:12>> Yeah. I'm surprised to hear you being so bearish with such a strong top comp.

25:20>> Right. Yeah. Uh, but yeah, I mean like he he got like a Jordan Scarlet comp and like again the comps are all objective.

25:27Like I'm not I'm not trying to like I think it's important to like build a narrative of sorts with comps so that

25:33you can kind of explain because comps are just for fun and you can kind of explain the type of player that you're

25:38looking at here. But yeah, for me with Price, um, you know, I don't think in rookie drafts, I don't think in rookie

25:44drafts any of the non Jeremiah Love are like very clearly first round rookie picks right now, right? Like I want to

25:52see what draft capital generally looks like. But I'm going to have a really hard time like if Jarian Price goes to

25:58Seattle, it's going to be tough, right, for us to >> get him now, man.

26:03>> To reconcile.

26:04>> Yeah. But I also >> I take him right now in in baseball drafts because you know he's like in the

26:08ninth round or whatever and guess what if he goes to Seattle at 32 or at 64.

26:14The funny thing is I don't think it will matter which pick he goes to Seattle.

26:18Obviously it should matter and will like affect his outlook but I don't think the market will treat it differently really >> if there's no way to prove this one way

26:26or the other because only one outcome will occur.

26:28Um, if he goes 64 to Seattle, I think he's going to be like a fourth round pick. And if he goes first round of

26:33Seattle, he'll probably be a fourth round pick.

26:35>> That's true. I I my thing with him is that I I I would I would imagine that I'm going to probably get my exposure

26:41more in season long than in Dynasty because >> I think so, too. Yeah. Unless you got rookie before the drive.

26:47>> Yeah. Yeah. It could just go really really south this profile.

26:52>> I agree. I think so. Uh, his comps for me were also included Darington Evans as his second comp. Um,

27:01>> but Miles Sanders and Damen Harris, I guess you you would say, was another positive one. Although Harris didn't do anything as rookie year.

27:09>> Harris is interesting because he's another teammate score guy, you know, like he's another, you know, didn't have the the production because of that that

27:16was that sort of funneling that was coming from that from Alabama.

27:19>> Alabama. Yeah. you know. So, yeah. I mean, like >> that was another because there's like I can't remember exactly. It was like Derk

27:25Henry. Um I >> Jacobs. Yeah. Guys in general who had like low reception shares as day two picks and some of them could be

27:36explained away from teammate score. I'm only saying Derrick Henry because he didn't have a, you know, he wasn't catching passes and he just happened to

27:41convert. But like another one was like Deontay Foreman, you know, who didn't catch passes either. But those guys had the backbone of like prolific rushing

27:50careers, you know, and we just don't have that with Jarian Price.

27:54>> We don't. We actually do. The thing he shares with Deontay Foreman is that he tore his Achilles. Um >> Oh, that's a good point. Yeah.

28:01>> Which the thing So with Price With Price for me, I think he's got How could you argue otherwise? He's got

28:09a super low floor. He was a he was a NFL or he's a college backup who probably will have pretty good draft capital.

28:17But, you know, I would say at the very most he's going to be, you know, the 32nd pick and most likely, you know,

28:24we're talking about a second round pick and in a good outcome. Those types of we see second round picks bust. You know,

28:30that's not, you know, it's it's it wouldn't be all that surprising uh for a running back just to not be very good

28:37even selected that highly. and he's a rush rushing driven pro profile.

28:43He was a really good kick returner, which I think is is kind of fun and kind of backs up some of the the game speed

28:49stuff, but coming in at 203 449, he was a bet on draft capital and athleticism, right?

28:55>> So, >> athleticism is not that great. It's not like bad, but it kind of undercut like the thesis of the play a little bit and

29:04certainly I think makes the range of outcomes. It just confirms that this is a really wide range of outcomes. Yeah.

29:10>> But it is his his journey is interesting because he uh he tore his Achilles um before

29:21uh in summer workouts. He tore his Achilles and then he comes back and uh at this point like they don't know what

29:30they've got in Jadarian Price. They've never seen Jadarian Price in a football game. um he tore it in summer workouts before his freshman year.

29:38>> So they he ends up uh you know they get Jeremiah Love and it's kind of I I think that's interesting too because it's like

29:46well you know you're kind of like we don't have a running back now potentially with an Achilles tear like you can't count on that. So, um, he was

29:56he was like a a a very strong prospect or very strong recruit that, you know, suffers this injury that shakes up the

30:03outlook of that backfield going forward.

30:05I think it at least tells you a little bit more about like how it came to be that he was splitting with Jeremiah

30:11Love. like he's not some random guy, you know, like he was he was a really um high upside recruit and he has recovered

30:21it looks like from a pretty devastating injury.

30:24>> Uh on the other hand, he's already torn his Achilles. So like what's the longevity here, right?

30:30>> So I just like it's just a >> it's a really wide range of outcomes in terms of like how good of an NFL player

30:36he is.

30:37I think from a fantasy perspective, the range gets a little wider in a it gets a little less wide in a bad way because

30:44how many fantasy points can he like realistically score as a two down guy?

30:47So >> that's what I'm saying. Yeah, that that's the fear in my opinion is like >> we can we can >> I think that there's still a big problem

30:57with running back evaluation in that the focus is always on rushing. It's always on and and to be clear >> when I'm looking at this analytically

31:08and talking through these players receiving profiles that receiving profile is not simply can you catch passes at the NFL like yes if you're a

31:15pass catcher in the NFL you were almost definitely a pass catcher in college like like flat out you very rarely get

31:21the opposite kind of profile. Um but >> Reese Hall jumped a bunch in an interesting way.

31:27>> Yeah. I mean but he went from being like above average to like elite right.

31:31>> Yeah. Exactly. So like, so like I mean more so like we would very rarely see a Derrick Henry or a Damen Harris, you

31:38know, whoever the case may become >> Kenneth Walker is added a little, but >> a little Yeah. Like a little bit. But

31:44like the bottom line is is that like it's not only that connection, but also it's a talent proxy. It's the fact that

31:53they're using these guys in a lot of different ways and they're getting them the balls, right? To some degree. Yeah.

31:59and and it's an important thing to have as a as a skill slash talent aval from a talent eval perspective right and like

32:08that scares me the gener like we just haven't seen anything like this before and to me you know if I get burned by

32:14this I get burned by this you know like I I'm fine with like weighing cost and being trying to be levelheaded about

32:23where this could go if landing spot this is more dynasty take right >> yeah yeah >> if if landing spot is great if he goes

32:31to Seattle and then all of a sudden he's getting drafted around like Kenyan Sadik or something like that which sure red

32:37flag sure there's problems but like I can't do that. I just I can't I can't do that logically given this analytical

32:44profile.

32:45>> I'm definitely higher in than than you are. I think um like for me I some of these wide receivers I get into um and we'll we'll

32:54kind of dive into the profiles, but I I'm like I have some red flags on some of these receivers too. And you know, if

33:01you're like not a first round receiver, I'm probably taking a second round running back over you. Um just kind of like sight unseen in a way because if

33:11Price is a starter, he's going to he's going to rise. uh if he even if he doesn't go somewhere as clear as like

33:19Seattle but he he goes somewhere with opportunity and then secures a starting job like young running backs are really valuable in Dynasty even if you don't

33:28believe long term they're going to be you know elite producers but we see like Walker I mean Walker was a clear clear

33:34as day two down profile and uh became extremely valuable very quickly so I think there's there's a lot of room to

33:42gain uh even if you ultimately they're just looking to flip him after a year.

33:47Uh so I, you know, in a thin class generally, I think for me, he'd still be, you know, a first round rookie pick

33:54type of guy. Uh I'm not as excited about he he's sort of a guy like he's an early second round value for me as a rookie

34:02pick, >> right?

34:03>> I would take him in the first round of this year's class. Yeah, I think I think that you're right with like where some

34:07of these wide receivers go and we can dig into where because there are some guys that I do like a decent bit at wide

34:12receiver that are outside the obvious choices and so that will play a role though of of like where they go, how

34:19high they go, you know, all that stuff.

34:22>> Uh so for the rest of the running back, let's talk EMTT Johnson because he's a guy that you know I think comes out

34:28pretty well for you ahead of Price. He's like, having done this a while, it's just like the classic kind of guy. Um,

34:38but I I'm like used to anything, you know, I look at liking Emtt Johnson and then him being DeAndre Washington or any

34:47of these other guys who never really do anything. So, that's that's part of it for me. I also think draft capital is a

34:53is a concern with him. Um, as you know, he's he's an undersized kind of receiving type of guy. But his comps for

35:00you, Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, James White, those feel like pretty dead on. Um, thank you.

35:08You know, uh, but I think in some ways he kind of shows the there's not a ton of depth in the running back class, but

35:16he's also a guy who can catch passes.

35:18And, you know, even Carter had a pretty good rookie season, >> right?

35:22>> Um, and then disappeared forever. But, uh, you know, being able to catch ball matters.

35:26>> Yeah. I mean, look, his receiving numbers are actually kind of out of control. Like, they're his best season reception is 19%, 94th percentile.

35:34Adjusted yards per team play, 95th percentile, adjusted yards per team pass attempt, 89th percentile. I mean, th those are crazy numbers for a potential

35:43day three pick. Now, he went out and he tested, I'd say, generally poorly. Uh, but, you know, he ran the three cone and

35:51people were dinging him for like a 20 25th percentile type three cone. He's the only running back that did it. Yeah.

35:57Right. Like Yeah. I I actually think that teams might reward players who are being competitive in that way, right?

36:04Where like he goes out and he actually tests and does this thing and people made it seem like he was the least

36:11athletic running back they've ever seen.

36:13Like he's like Elijah Holyfield or something. And you know it's it's not Holyfield just catching strays. Uh >> yeah, for real.

36:22But I just remember Holyfield ran like a 48 or something like that. So I always reference him. Uh >> but like EMTT Johnson still had like an

36:29okay enough athleticism score, you know, depending on how you want to measure that. Uh speed score was like 93. Yes, you'd rather that be closer to like 100,

36:38you know, of course. But um I think this is an an archetype that again, you saw the comps, Michael Carter, Kenneth

36:44Gainwell, James White. James White's probably not James White in most other offenses to be clear, you know?

36:49>> Right. and and potentially in this era as well. I mean, you've talked about this too, like this isn't a >> great time to be like a receiving

36:59specialist at the running back position.

37:00>> Yeah. This isn't like like Dez Reed for instance, you know, out of pig who's like a great receiving back and smaller.

37:05He's like Tariq Cohen 2.0.

37:07>> Let's just do it. Let's just let's just have Can we do Nhines again? That would be fun.

37:12>> Yeah. Right. Right. Right. And so like like that's fine, but like like we've seen uh target share shift from running

37:19back to tight end with heavier personnel and such. It's just not the same kind of game as it was when Tariq Cohen was

37:24doing his thing. Um and so but with Emtt Johnson, I actually think >> archetype-wise, if you were to look at this like on the spectrum of, you know,

37:34one side is a Tyler Bedet who I think this could be who Emma Johnson might end up being, right? or you know the other

37:42end of that spectrum I think is Aaron Jones right where like you don't have massive athleticism but you get a really

37:50good pass catching back Aaron Jones has been one of the most underrated receiving backs in the league since he entered the league and I think there is

37:56that outcome for EMTT Johnson right we've seen you know you could maybe throw like a Kairen Williams in this bucket as well

38:03>> I think he could >> yeah where like he obviously you know I think he's he's gotten better in the NFL

38:08like as a player versus what he was in college, but he was a great receiving back in college, too. And then he found

38:14a team that is willing to say, "You're you're you're great at grinding it out and you can handle this workload, uh,

38:21you know, to a degree and we'll give you a lot of work because we like you." That can happen with an Emma Johnson type in

38:26my opinion because like he checks enough boxes to be a three down guy in the right kind of environment. Do I think

38:32that's the likely outcome? No. But this running back class sucks so I have like you have to you have to find these

38:42these uh you know edge cases which I think is is with Emma Johnson that edge case is like an Aaron Jones type outcome

38:48you know and being that kind of player in the NFL.

38:51>> Yeah. And Kairen Williams I have is 194 coming in. So um you know he's 5 foot n 194. So I think the the push back on on

39:00that type of case would be like dude he's a he's 202 pounds like he's not going to be like a workhorse back. But

39:05we have seen some smaller backs. I mean, you don't even have to go to like a Chan and stuff, but we have seen a guy like

39:12Kairen Williams be like a traditional between the tackles runner >> at a smaller size like that. Um, where you almost forget that he

39:21>> I mean, I'm sure he's put on weight since, but he's, you know, he's not a huge dude. And >> his comps for me, Emma Johnson, are a

39:28little bit more running backy I suppose.

39:31I mean, so like for me it's it was Will Shipley, Wayne Gman, Woody Marx, Paul Perkins, Tyler Irvin, and Eno Benjamin.

39:39It was >> Yeah.

39:40>> Seeing Benjamin, I'm like, "Yep, I knew it. I knew it."

39:42>> To be fair, I I I I loved and still love Eno Benjamin, so this makes sense. This all checks out. Yeah.

39:48>> But Benjamin, when he did add value at times, you know, is like a waiverwire pickup type of guy, it was because he's

39:55actually getting a bunch of work. It wasn't, you know, he he's like a >> he's like a fillin. He's like the a

40:03backup or third string guy who kind of like makes his way into a starting role by like week 11 and puts up some points

40:10and then goes away again.

40:12>> Can do can can do it all like like >> can do it all. Can do everything well enough.

40:16>> I still think that you know Benjamin's in the same bucket as like a Tyler Bedet. Bedet just hasn't been able to

40:21like find any I'm not saying that he would ever I'm just saying that like he's he's not he's clearly not a early

40:26down guy. that's not the way that that team view him and stuff and so >> but neither is Markx and Markx was a

40:32starting running back basically >> saying like a lot of this comes down to like will he you know again so the draft

40:37capital projection at the time of the prospect guide launch was 87 for EMTT Johnson which is part of the reason why

40:43he's almost clearly >> as the RB2 and so if he goes day three it changes the dynamic a little bit of

40:50of like where you like I'm not going to pick you know or rank you know if Jarian Price goes RB2 and Emma or goes round

40:57two and Emma Johnson goes round five.

40:59That would be idiotic. You know, I'm not that the model won't even see it that way, right? Right. Um but right now

41:04based on 87 versus I think price was like >> 50 to 60 or something like that, that's why the model saw, you know, the the the

41:11difference between the two >> and you have them close. So, um >> yeah, >> my I would probably take I would bet

41:17price in the the post-draft Zap model.

41:21Um cuz I think >> I think I think the draft capital gap will be bigger than than it was then.

41:26>> Wouldn't be shocked.

41:27>> Um speaking of a guy where you're probably going to be moving the draft capital up, Mike Washington is the last

41:33running back that you have uh in the in your weekly starter tier. Um he's I mean you want to talk about a bet on draft

41:41capital and athleticism >> where you do get the athleticism.

41:45>> Yeah. That's it with him, right? Like to me >> it really is. his advanced numbers are really not that good. Uh really well

41:52below average in like explosive run rate, which is also >> really not that good is a kind way of putting it.

41:56>> Yeah. And it's also it's it's kind of frightening because he tested so well like I do think that his final season

42:02was a lot better than the other years that he played throughout college. So that's at least good. But you get you

42:08know he's he's almost 23. He's not I wouldn't call him old just given the way that prospects are coming out. Like he's

42:12not Seth McGawan. Seth McGawan because to me McGawan >> Seth McGawan outproduced him when they played together, >> right? McGawan though, McGawan is like

42:20arbitrage Mike Washington in that he's it's it's a very similar analytical bet except he's older and wor like he's like slightly worse in a lot you know what I

42:31mean like like arbitrage from the standpoint of like like >> well he won't go I mean arbitrage in the sense that like he's in the same draft

42:39class and probably goes three rounds later.

42:41>> Right. Right. Right. And I mean, he's going to be like a fourth round rookie.

42:43Like, people are not going to care about Seth McGawan. But, um, although this class may be third round, uh, but but

42:49yeah, I mean, like, everything looks not great for Mike Washington. Um, his adjusted yards per team play in his best year was okay. 65th percentile. You

42:58know, reception share in his best season, 62nd percentile. He doesn't look horrible, but I think that this top comp, it's not stylistic because

43:06Latavius Murray had a very very upright like you knew that it was Latavius Murray when he was running the football and that's not what we're getting with

43:14Mike Washington. But I do think from like a if you think about like a probably a 80th percentile type outcome for a guy like Washington of like what

43:22his production could look like in the NFL, I think Latavius Murray's kind of career trajectory because he made a great career. Like that's

43:29>> Oh my god. I when you said 80th I was like >> yeah that's not a bad top comp at all.

43:33>> Yeah right yeah maybe maybe a 90th uh percentile outcome.

43:38>> Uh so I don't mind Washington but I do think that you know we've we've uh we've ruined ourselves at times over the last

43:4615 years of doing this of you know taking the traits back who doesn't necessarily have the best production profile in the world and that's kind of

43:53what we're looking at with Mike Washington. Well, we're going to we're going to, you know, quadruple count the athleticism. Um because like this is the

44:01type of back who is only going to get drafted because he crushed the combine.

44:08Like not drafted at all, but like his his the draft capital we care about him not being like a fifth round pick is

44:13because he crushed the combine. Yeah.

44:16>> And so, you know, if on top of that you're like Andy crushed the combine.

44:20It's like Yeah.

44:22We know, you know, like and of course the stuff after the combine was funny because it's like, oh man, look at this.

44:29Look at this 4340 at 223 pounds. And obviously, you know, we're not just raising a guy on the on the athletic

44:36season. We're going to go look at the tape, but you know, we' never just raise him.

44:39>> We're we're going to go look at his 22nd percentile explosive run rate and and pretend and pretend that it's not bad

44:46>> and pretend that he was actually good on tape um when he clearly wasn't. Uh but yeah, I mean he look I mean the

44:53athleticism athleticism does matter at at running back like big guy run fast kind of works sometimes. Um Matt Jones popped up as a as a comp for me which

45:02you know he had like a minute there where he kind of was a starter sort of.

45:06Um Kaylin Bell another another comp who was instal he got some offseason hype.

45:11>> He got drafted high once.

45:12>> That's a great comp. It's it's because last year's Cayen Bell was DJ Giddens and that's one of the comps for for Mike

45:18Washington. Yeah, >> I did like Giddens. Um >> I did too.

45:24Giddens had a better Giddens had a more well-rounded production.

45:27>> He had more he had more stuff going on.

45:28Yeah.

45:29>> Um >> Jeremy Langford pops up as well.

45:32>> Yeah.

45:33>> Um >> there's there's I could see people feeling vindicated on if you're into Mike Washington, I think there's a moment where you'll where where you will

45:42feel vindicated. I don't think he's going to have a great career. He could have a a handful of games where like

45:48starter goes down or like again it's literally the Latavius Murray kind of like outcome where like yeah he might be a starter for a year or you know coming

45:57in for an injured guy and be able to carry a a decent workload and be relevant. So like that's that's still

46:04valuable in Dynasty even if it doesn't hit the way that you would want it to hit. You know >> I I think it'll be more than a couple

46:09game. I think because of the draft capital, I I would say he I could easily see him, you know, producing down the

46:17stretch and actually being kind of exciting in of his rookie year and then being installed as the early down starter in his second year and that

46:27generating hype and, you know, pretty good reddraft >> price and then uh absolutely flaming out >> dynasty after that that year in the

46:37offseason. Yeah.

46:38>> Yeah. the Zamir White uh career path is kind of what I'm what I'm expecting. But like you could make a profit even from

46:44>> the problem with with Washington is that he could go so high after the draft. So rookie draftwise like if you're telling

46:50me like yeah I'm going to take this dude over Jordan Tyson. I'd be like don't do it.

46:56But I think he might like if he goes 64 to Seattle like I think that will happen.

47:02>> I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna raise hell if that happens. You're just going to go around to every league in the country.

47:09>> Yeah, that happens. I'm going to make fun of the of the drafter doing that in every league. Yeah.

47:16>> All right. Submit submit any drafts you see. Washington, go ahead of Tyson. Send them over to JJ.

47:22>> Yeah.

47:22>> Um All right. Let's let's kind of rapid fire the rest of this class. Uh Jonah Coleman, Nick Singleton, Kron Allen um

47:30are are kind of the next tier of guys where you could expect some draft capital. um and have some interesting elements to their profile. Kron Island's

47:41more of a two- down guy. Singleton and Coleman have some receiving interest, but I'm not sure they get the draft capital. I Coleman I've I've cooled on

47:50substantially because of him not testing, which uh some people said have related to like uh you know, health and him kind of working back and and not

48:00wanting to turn in bad numbers that aren't reflective of of what he can actually do. but also he might be slow

48:06and unathletic. I think that that was kind of a red flag to begin with. And so I'm worried he falls to day three and I

48:12and I think Singleton and Allen are kind of expected to fall to day three.

48:15>> Yeah, Coleman I think at least had like I think Coleman probably has the third best production profile in this class if

48:22you were to if because I think Emitt Johnson's is really good just because I care about the receiving stuff so much.

48:26I think Coleman's is probably next. Like it's it's pretty well-rounded all things considered, right? Um >> I like Coleman's a little bit more to be

48:33honest. Yeah. Yeah. And I I wouldn't even argue that. Yeah. Um and so, uh I think Coleman's at least interesting, especially again if that draft capital

48:42is like if he goes round three or something like that or even early round four. Um I think that he's pretty

48:47intriguing. Singleton really strikes me as a the fantasy community is going to like him more than the NFL will kind of

48:55player. Uh I usually am a sucker for, you know, biggerbodied, fast receiving type players. you guys who can catch pass out of the backfield kind of

49:04players. But this is also the CJ Proise, Tevin Coleman, you know, Buck Allen type.

49:11>> You know who popped up?

49:12>> Who's that >> for me?

49:14>> Izzy Aacanda.

49:15>> Yeah, there you go. We talked about him a couple years ago.

49:18>> Yeah, I loved him.

49:20>> But yeah, so like Singleton scares me from that. I still think that he has like in in this kind of class an

49:26interesting enough ceiling that >> the the problem the problem I run into is that what I I've now analyzed rookie mockra or like rookie ADP and he's just

49:36higher than where in in the in the fantasy and dynasty community than where I think the NFL sees. Like I've not

49:43talked to many film guys slash I'm looking at mock drafts that are like high on Nick Singleton per se. Um, I do

49:50think that Kron Allen is more of like the classic film grinder back that they'll just like him a little bit more.

49:56And maybe that dichotomy of them sharing the backfield is why we see, you know, the the lesser with with Nick Singleton.

50:02Kron Allen just is not the kind of back that does it for me because there's not a receiving profile there. Like I think

50:07he's like a like Mike Gillisley was one of his comps. He's like an older version of >> Oh man, that's a name. He's like he's

50:12like an older version of Kendra Miller, you know, where Miller at least had the age on his side where he came out where

50:19he was like 21. Kron Allen >> also looked real fluid as a pass catch.

50:22You're like I could see him.

50:23>> Yeah. You could see even though pass catching numbers weren't there, right?

50:25Weren't there. Yeah.

50:26>> Um Kron Allen just didn't have that at all. Like they're to me most likely fillin types, you know, just guys who

50:33>> Brian Robinson popped up as a >> Yeah, Brian Robinson. I think you could even throw a Damen Harris type as like a

50:38a comp for Allen. So yeah, I same page.

50:41It's like there's just not that much three down upside I think with Allen >> very yeah basically no real three down

50:48upside no realistic three down upside but um Ray Davis popped up as well you know I think that's probably what Allen

50:55will be Allen strikes like I wrote him up I was like look to be honest this is a contingency bet I don't know behind

51:03who but like he's going to be >> very likely kind of a a guy you're hoping like pops up for some games um if

51:10someone gets hurt in front of Um, but I think he can run. So, you know, >> and then it gets pretty thin after that.

51:18Uh, let's move to receiver.

51:20>> Um, >> where you have Jordan Tyson as a uh legendary producer, which is a new tier.

51:29Do you want to talk a little bit about uh this part of it?

51:33>> Yeah, I mean, it's a new grouping. Um it's reserved for like only the elite guys at running back. So like you're not

51:40going to see as many you're going to see a little bit more at wide receiver just because there's more wide receivers in

51:44general. Um the hit rates are are just better for for that tier. They're they're very very strong. And I don't know man, Jordan Tyson to me analyt it's

51:55like it's like kind of and I want to I want to hear your thoughts on this because obviously we're approaching this

52:00in a fairly similar way. But to me, it's kind of interesting that Jordan Tyson, not not only in, and this is only from a

52:08fantasy community standpoint because the fantasy community is very analytics heavy compared to what you'll see with just like regular draft analysts and

52:15what you see out of mock drafts and all that kind of stuff. And it's kind of shocking to me that Jordan Tyson is not

52:20the consensus wide receiver one in Dynasty. Um, where right, I'm not saying that like he like if you like another wide receiver more than Jordan Tyson, I

52:29get it. You know, that's not what I'm saying here. I'm just saying that when you look at everybody that are that are

52:35creating this ADP, I'm shocked that he's the wide receiver three. You know, it's not even that he's the wide receiver one

52:41or two. You know, Tate and Lemon are typically ahead of Tyson. Analytically, he has the best profile in this class in

52:48my opinion. And I don't think it's necessarily that close. Like you look at his journey and you walk through his journey and you're like, "Oh my god,

52:57this guy just dominated when he was healthy." Like he he gets to Colorado, right, his freshman year, he leads that team in receiving as a freshman, right?

53:08Then he and then he just tears up and destroys his knee. And so he he led the team in receiving in nine games. He

53:15didn't even play a full season uh for Colorado. Then >> yeah, 43% dominated. doesn't happen because of that knee. He comes back and

53:23he puts together, this is what's interesting. I feel like Jordan Tyson's third season, which you know, obviously could have easily been a second, but he

53:30got hurt. His third season in college, uh, is the best single season in my opinion of anyone in this class, uh,

53:37from a from an analytic standpoint, from an advanced number standpoint. And it reminds me a lot of the way that people

53:44have viewed JSN, have viewed Luther Burton, have viewed these guys who didn't necessarily that production. The difference with Tyson is he's not an early declarer,

53:54which is a little bit scary because he had that second season where he didn't play, right?

53:59>> The other So, so then you know he has that third season where he dominates like objectively incredible season, right? and then he breaks his collar

54:07bone and then the following season. If you look at Jordan Tyson's numbers before the hamstring, they're phenomenal. Like he he was great up

54:15until that injury happened and then he fell off a little bit, right? And then now obviously the stuff is going on this

54:21off season with the injury with the with the hamstring. And >> from my perspective, >> although he is going to work out, I

54:27think he will the draft. It's it's very it's very JSN if we're being honest.

54:33like that that side of it where like he didn't do any testing. We didn't I'm not saying he's JSN. Uh I think JSM was like

54:39JSM was a better prospect in the model like he looked better. But uh if you look at like like I breakout score as

54:46the main metric at wide receiver that I use. Uh breakout score looks at age adjusted and program adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt and it

54:54scores it from zero to 100. Uh, and and just so that you guys have some clarity, like if you look at top 100 wide

55:00receivers and you look at draft capital and then you compare that to breakout score, breakout score is just as predictive as draft capital is just

55:07straight up breakout score when you're looking strictly at top 100 wide receivers. And so, uh, naturally, he has the best breakout score in this class.

55:16He has like a 99th percentile breakout score and >> from that 2024 season.

55:20>> Yeah. And it but it also it'll it'll factor in every season that the guy plays in. It's like think of it as okay

55:26like there's it's not threshold based like like breakout age would be right where it's like this binary yes or no you know like did you break out so like

55:34if he had a because he did and he was young right that's the other thing too is that it's age adjusted so he no

55:39player for for a four-year guy and so he goes to Colorado and he puts up like a relatively decent >> uh receiving yards per team pass attempt

55:48mark especially when adjusted for strength of schedule and that's all prrated as long as you play more than six games or five games and so that

55:55number looked decent as a freshman. So that got his breakout score kind of moving and then there was some additive stuff that happened because it got

56:02better. So you can technically like if you don't do anything like Xavier Legette and then you have a really phenomenal final season as long as

56:09you're not like 24 years old or something like that. Uh you can still have some breakout score. Legett wasn't like great. It's just that like it

56:15wasn't a zero uh for him because you know it happened so late. And so with Tyson, like you're you're kind of

56:22rewarding both the peak of the career, right? So like a guy like Burden, a guy like JSN, like those guys were rewarded

56:30for having whether it came their final year or not, they had that peak, which what I found is actually more predictive

56:36than the trajectory side, right? If you do have that crazy peak, that's more important than just getting better every year, you know?

56:45>> Yeah. I also think >> I think the draft capital tends to focus on the final season a little bit more

56:52like you have to you know and I think when you're thinking about like how much how many games have you know has every

57:00scout studied of every player >> probably looking at the final season you know more than going back and digging through the previous year like just

57:09generally. So, I do think that it just sort of makes intuitive sense to me that uh some undervalued elements when you

57:17could compare to draft capital would be would be hidden in, you know, two even three years ago. And that Arizona State team two years ago

57:25was also like pretty decent. Uh the the last year's not not as much and then the Colorado team like not a great team, but

57:34that Arizona State team was like a pretty pretty solid team, right?

57:38>> Yeah. I mean, it's it's like again, it's just kind of shocking to me that there like, is it the medicals? Probably,

57:46right? Like that's >> I I think the medicals are some Yeah, we should talk about that, >> right? I I have a hard time with it

57:52because I have no idea how to measure it and there was I actually I had Steve Palazolo on uh my show last week and he

57:59um and I because I like getting perspectives from people that aren't doing anything from a fantasy standpoint, right? Um, and he made the

58:06point that he wants to go back and and create almost a database of players that had red flag medicals and to see if

58:14anything actually came of it because we keep throwing this stuff out there without any sort of substance of whether it actually matters or is predictive in

58:23some way. Like I think intuitively we can say hamstrings are bad. Yes, they're bad, but how much does it matter? Like

58:29Casey Conpsion had that knee scope right like a couple weeks ago. If that happened to any NFL player, we wouldn't care at all. We would not care at all.

58:38But we're caring about that for Casey Conpion because a team is about to invest heavy draft capital and then salary in that player, right? It's the

58:47timing of all of this that's that's making this a bigger deal. And I it might be a big deal. Like I I'm not a

58:52doctor, but what I am trying to do is at least be like logical and think through this in a concise, you know, like smart

59:01way as opposed to saying too many red flags because of these injuries. I mean, a a a devastating knee injury, a broken

59:08collar bone, both could be fluky. We like like easily, right? And then and then a uh the the the hamstring is a

59:16little bit more frightening and scary because we know >> I think the knee is the most frightening. And it's not because it's

59:21going to recur, but like you had he had a triple ligament knee knee tear and um we've seen like I don't know like

59:30there's some there's some percentage chance that that actually like limits his career a little bit.

59:36>> But but the thing is with that is that he came back from that and had the best season of anyone in this class.

59:41>> Yeah. Yeah. He recovered from it amazingly. That's what I'm saying. You do you do see you know I don't know some

59:47guys >> Yeah. I mean it can linger. We all we all we're getting old. We're unk like we know that you know we get

59:55>> swelling up man later you know like you know few years from now. So I think like longevity uh triple ligament knee tear definitely

60:03I would prefer he hadn't you know I'd prefer he never did that. So that that's like a a minor I I would say minor red

60:10flag. And then there is, you know, until he's drafted, I'm going to have that in the back of my mind as well, cuz for me,

60:18those red flags, the injury red flags, if you're telling me he was the 11th pick in the draft or the ninth pick in

60:24the draft, uh, let's say, >> just hypothetically, >> um, >> I don't care. The hamstring, like, you can have your hamstring red flags and

60:33stuff and your knee red flags. Like, he clearly fully checked out medically.

60:38He's good to go. uh any kind of at this point you're just being like a a nervous Nelly if you're if you're talking about

60:46the injury stuff if he's if he's you know drafted that highly. But I I think before the draft it's it's it's more I

60:53think you know something that you can kind of keep in the back of your mind with him because we don't know for sure

61:00that that the NFL is uh you know super bullish on on his long-term health. I don't I I just I'm I'm trying to be cuz

61:07like I think that me coming on this show or any other show and being like pro Tyson, it's more so I'm trying to show

61:14that side more than anything else, right? Like I'm trying to explain that this analytical profile is really really really good. Like the the and and

61:24historically this is a profile that has traditionally hit at a pretty high rate.

61:28There's there's misses that that will come. You know, Rashad Baitman exists.

61:32like we know that that good age adjusted production can lead us down a a bad path. Baitman though obviously was a

61:39later first round pick which is why I do think that like draft capital can play a role here in some way. Um I'm just again

61:46it just goes back to like it's not that I think that like I had them all the three of them in the same tier in my

61:52rankings. You know, this isn't this isn't a situation where I'm like you're a [ __ ] if you don't have Jordan Tyson

61:57as your clear-cut wide receiver one. I'm just saying I'm surprised >> that the dialogue has not been so focused on him when this is a profile in

62:07the past that people would have loved.

62:10>> Why do you do you do you have any sense of why he ended up going back to school?

62:14I don't really know that.

62:16>> I don't know it either. Could have could have been the injury and >> just only the two seasons.

62:21>> Yeah. And like wanting to just have show more and such. But um yeah, I mean like that's one thing to at least consider

62:29the lack of early declare. Like it's it's not nothing. Um but like again I I go like if you look at Tate and Lemon

62:35like there's red flags to their profiles too. I do think with Tyson the analytical red flag is that he's not he

62:40wasn't like a good tackle breaker in college. Like he his mistackles force numbers were were pretty weak. But I looked and there's not like a massive

62:47correlation. It's he's kind of an outlier with it. But like, you know, he's in like the Devonte Smith, Chris Ave range, but you and you had like

62:54Jaylen Reagger was down there, like he was bad at it. Jan Dodson was bad at it.

62:58Um, but there's not necessarily like this clear-cut correlation to tell me that this is a really big problem for him and how he might translate to the

63:07NFL.

63:08>> Yeah. Also, I wish like Rager was a guy I wasn't really looking at yards per route run at that time and I wish I had

63:14because uh >> Oh, there's stuff like that all the time.

63:16>> You go like, "Oh, oh no.

63:19Why did I do this? Yeah. Why?

63:20>> Yeah.

63:22>> Let's just look under. Oh god.

63:24>> Yeah. I look back at like prospect guides I wrote four when I first started doing that like went out on my own and

63:29stuff because this is the fifth prospect guide and I look at like the first one I did and I'm like I was terrible. Like

63:35this is it's like completely different.

63:37You know my >> outr run the bear. You know what I mean?

63:39>> Yeah. Yeah.

63:40>> Um the uh >> or no not outrun the bear. You didn't outrun the bear, but you outran your friend, which is uh Yeah, there you go.

63:48>> the point I was trying to make.

63:49>> Um, >> all right. So, Tyson, I don't I don't like Tyson, I think, as as much as you, but I total I love that you're making

63:56the case because I mean, he's he does have like these insanely good seasons, particularly uh you know, 3.48 48 yards per team attempt uh per the boxcore

64:08scout over Riv uh for for Jordan Tyson in that second season when he was 20 years old when he was a a junior when he

64:15was the first year back off of a devastating knee injury where he uh you know transferred first year in that school. So yeah, I think he probably

64:26does he probably isn't getting enough love. Um, one one thing with him when he was when I was like, uh, you know, first kind of

64:35familiarizing myself with the the prospects, I assumed that he would be kind of a tape darling.

64:41>> And he hasn't really been >> as much as I thought he would be >> cuz he looks fun on tape, but you know,

64:48when I had I had Eric Froton on, he was sort of talking about like him kind of overselling things and not being wasted

64:54movement. I think I think Matt Harman talked about that as well. He he wasn't quite as bullish on him as I again I

65:00kind of he it's not like he's an outlier there but like I was you know I don't know I just watch these guys I'm like he

65:07looks fun and he didn't he's he doesn't seem to be generating like the hype there as much as I thought >> in a way that actually like Carnell Tate

65:16kind of is >> Yes.

65:19>> Yeah. Harmon was very very positive on on Tate and Tate's an outside wide receiver. um not like the biggest guy in

65:28the world, but uh you know 6'2 192 and you know didn't run as fast as I think people thought he would. That doesn't

65:37seem to really be affecting his draft capital. Maybe it takes him off, you know, out of the running for like going

65:43to the Titans or whatever at four, but >> um he'll still go pretty high. and he does he's he's my wide receiver one cuz

65:53I'm I'm like this dude looks like a clearcut kind of outside NFL wide receiver. He does all the wide receiver things. He's going to fit right in and

66:05he has this really strong final season playing alongside Jeremiah Smith. you know, uh, he he didn't have this amazing profile before, but it wasn't it wasn't

66:17bad two years ago, and he had a Mecha, I bua and Smith there.

66:22>> And so, you look at, you know, just the guys coming out of this Ohio State program. Um, and then honestly, I think

66:28a very impressive final season, uh, playing alongside Smith, who, you know, next this time next year, we're going be talking about him. You might have to

66:37create a new tier.

66:38>> Yeah. Have a score of 100 for sure.

66:40Yeah, he's going to have a score of 100.

66:42So, like it's not I mean it's not common that we're talking about a guy's like younger >> uh teammate is is like a a reason to be

66:51excited about him, but like Jeremiah Smith is different. Like he he's going to go down as one of the all-time wide

66:58receiver prospects. Um and like we just we just know that, you know, it's it's it's not like a big projection to say

67:06that at all. So, >> yeah. Um that's having having put up uh a really strong final season alongside him and then kind of just like checking

67:17a lot of the boxes of uh like like real life valuable outside producer I like a lot. And then I think I think he's

67:27ultimately he profiles and and this is where you know looking at Matt Harmon's route running stuff I'm like he kind of

67:34profiles as more of a target earner than he was in college which again kind of would make sense uh given that you know

67:41he was playing alongside Smith. So there is some downside to this profile where you're like yeah he's fine he's like a solid outside wide receiver

67:51starter in the NFL but he's not really a great fantasy guy. Um, but I think there's a ton of upside to this to this

67:57profile too, you know, given true junior breaks out uh, you know, elite teammate competition, elite program.

68:05>> Agreed. I think he's a good prospect.

68:07Like a really good prospect. I when when I line up breakout score ver with him versus the other Ohio State wide outs

68:13that have come out recently. So like a Wilson, JSN, Nabuka, he had the worst of those. Marvin Harrison Jr., he had the

68:20worst of those guys. Uh, from a breakout score perspective. It's still good though. still an 87th percentile breakout score. And then the model also

68:27does not account for underclassmen that are very good because I don't know like yes I could I could plug in Jeremiah

68:35you know what if you did >> Yeah. Right. Right. Like like I could plug in the assumptions but that's like a whole other I mean just that's just

68:42like a a like it >> breaks my brain thinking about how that would all be built out right because you have to

68:49>> think about where because it's all based on where these guys get drafted where their teammates get drafted and stuff. I

68:53can look at the previous year and previous season, you know, it's hard to to project that. So, he's not getting any love for playing with Jeremiah

69:01Smith, which I think is a little it's like objectively unfair, but at the same time, uh I can subjectively change that,

69:07you know, and like look at him differently then. Um but yeah, I think the big thing that you mentioned is what

69:12my red flag and concern would be is like is he a target earner for like is he a better is he a better real life player

69:18than fantasy player? I think that's very, you know, someone who can who can stretch the field, play all three levels, but not necessarily be a target

69:25hog. And he, you know, like there is like if you split up his his wide yards per route run and slot yards per route

69:31run, like his wide yards per run actually wasn't that amazing. Like it was 54th percentile. It's like 2.13 or so. Like it's not

69:40>> incredible, you know? Uh he actually did a lot more from a uh yards per run standpoint in the slot, oddly. Um, but

69:47that can be skewed by some big plays and stuff like that. Um, but overall it's a it's a really good profile. Um, I'm

69:53again I'm not going to fault anyone for having Cardinal State wide receiver one because it's a very good uh, you know,

69:59like profile overall and there are some flags with Jordan Tyson too. I just think that Tyson profiles with a better ceiling based on his his analytical

70:08profile.

70:10>> Yeah, that's fair. I mean, I I I think when I think about Tate, uh your top comp is is George Pickkins. Um like that

70:20would be pretty awesome. Like when I when I think about Cardinal Tate, I'm not like think, oh, George Pickkins, you know.

70:26>> But isn't that But isn't that also Isn't that because like Pickkins from a target earning perspective?

70:31>> Yeah.

70:31>> Right.

70:32>> Although Pickins the thing I like about the comp is like I think Pickkins is kind of underrated as a target earner,

70:37>> right? Sure. Sure. But like he's not the because like you go to Mai Lemon I think Mai Lemon has the complete opposite kind

70:43of profile where >> the reason why we love like you can love Lemon >> targets baby.

70:49>> Yeah. Is because this is the the Aman Ross St. Brown cheat code in fantasy football right where >> Tate might help better in real life but

70:57Lemon might in the right spot.

70:59>> Well like I think Tate is safer just in general from a fantasy perspective. Like >> we'll be able to fit anywhere. It's

71:05fine. And that's why I think pre-draft it's even easier to put Tate as your wide receiver one, right? Uh because again, like if you have three really

71:14good wide receivers, you should be using things like landing spot and such and you know, projected draft capital or actual draft capital as sort of tie

71:22breakers, you know, with these players.

71:24And then like you get to Lemon. I won't lie, like Lemon, I know that I just moved on and just started talking about

71:29Lemon, but >> No, you're good. Um, the more I looked at Lemon's profile, the more I liked him, the more I'm, you know, aside from

71:37>> I like Lemon a lot.

71:38>> Aside from the crazy stuff at the combine that, you know, >> that was a bit odd.

71:42>> Yeah. Little strange, but >> described as lusty. That was so funny.

71:50I'm like, what are you going for, man?

71:53Uh but yeah, like Lemon Lemon obviously has been like typ casted as this slot dude by some. He had the best perimeter

72:01yards per hour run in this class career uh yards per hour run on the outside.

72:06And so like and if a team drafts a player like this in the first round, they're not using him to be strictly a

72:11slot guy. You know, we see this exact same conversation happened with Jackson Smith and Jigba a few years ago, you know, where where people thought he was

72:19slot only. Amecha Ibuka last year it happened and you know, I landed in Tampa Bay where they don't even remotely care

72:25if you play slot or not. You know, they drafted Jaylen McMillan and threw him on the outside. But but like like I think

72:31with Mia Lemon um it's just a really solid profile that if there's because like Aman Ross saying Brown of course he's good and of course he's developed

72:40and become but I think just it's human nature and it's natural that like if you get off to a hot start doing something

72:46as a person you get more confidence you're able to do that thing a little bit better and and and maybe have a

72:51little bit more of a leg up on on the rest of the competition from from that standpoint. And so like Amar St. around

72:57going to a place in Detroit where there wasn't competition and then he's able to play this inside out role right away and

73:03then he he obviously dominated down the stretch when even more of that competition was banged up I think helped him become what he's become. I think he

73:11would have eventually gotten to close to this point. But what I'm saying is I like if Mai Lemon can find that kind of

73:17environment, we got to pound like we got to be more proactive than maybe we otherwise would be from a landing spot

73:23perspective because he could be a a 100 catch player in the NFL, you know, in in the right spot. And >> yeah,

73:30>> that's >> What are your thoughts on like I mean if he goes to Miami or something?

73:35>> Oh, obviously there's targets available, but like >> I don't want anyone in Miami. I don't want anyone Miami, but he I think would

73:42be especially hurt by something like that where like the the type of quarterback like we want a point guard quarterback. Yes. You know, get the ball

73:49out quickly and, you know, on time in the right location and let the guy win after the catch. I think he is more that

73:58type of of receiver.

74:00>> Um, and so I think there's some downside to landing spot there too.

74:04Yeah. And there might be like like I think there's a chance that like the Rams go after him and there might be

74:09that like year one not quite like it could be an Aman Ross St. Brown type situation where like maybe one of Adams

74:15or Puka get injured down the stretch or something and then M >> what's Puka been up to recently you know >> right and and but obviously like the way

74:22the Rams have been handling things it's very clear that this would be Adam's just playing out this contract and then he's and then he's done.

74:29>> Yeah. I mean, >> they also just need someone young there with Puka needing the new contract uh and that up. So, like

74:35>> like it could be a situation where, >> you know, he's in this spot where he doesn't necessarily become a massive

74:42fantasy producer immediately and just some things need to fall in place. Um, but I do think that the ceiling from like a again the way fantasy football is

74:51played standpoint, right? Like I I I I think that Tate could help a team better in real life. Lemon could end up being

74:58the the bigger just fantasy asset and then for years we're gonna sit there and say, "Oh, he's not good enough to be an

75:05elite receiver. He's not good enough to be an elite receiver, but he's just producing like an elite receiver like Aman Ross Brown has done."

75:09>> Right. Right.

75:10>> You know.

75:11>> Yeah. So, for me, Tate, uh, his Tom Cop was, uh, was Chris Olive, which I think kind of shows again kind of like

75:18Pickkins in some ways the like the the good and the bad of the profile.

75:22>> Uh, Lemon JSN pops up. So, you know, and then Garrett Wilson's on the list, Jerry Judy as well. But, um, yeah, these guys,

75:31it's like even if you're not that good, you can still kind of earn targets, you know, Jerry Judy. Um, >> so I the funny thing you mentioned, the

75:40Rams of of any of these three guys, if I could just like put one of them on the Rams, I think it would be Tyson

75:46>> probably >> because, you know, it's like putting him with McVey, I think it's like then you talk about, you know, talk about upside.

75:53That's like the That's like the burden with Ben Johnson of last year, you know?

75:57>> Right. Yeah, exactly. Um let's hope let's hope uh he doesn't put him behind a lameday Zakius for most of the year.

76:04>> Yeah.

76:04>> U but yeah. Um all right, let's I mean I I don't have too much else on on Lemon.

76:11I I think he like I like Lemon a lot. Um I actually have him above Tyson, but I think, you know, it's very close. Mhm.

76:21>> Uh I would take all three of these guys ahead of Mendoza as I said earlier.

76:25>> Yeah.

76:26>> Uh I would take to me it's like you take you take Love then you take the three receivers.

76:31>> Well I I actually in the prospect guide when I published it I had Mendoza at my 102 and Superflex and then I updated my

76:37dynasty rankings yesterday and I was like why did I I don't want to do this.

76:43I have the three wide credits Adamos and Superflex. And so I mean that's a the beautiful part about the pre-draft version of the guide is that it doesn't

76:51matter because no 99% of people are not drafting before the NFL draft happens.

76:56>> Um so it's a it's a deeper class, but let's uh I've got a I've actually got to run reasonably soon. So let's let's kind

77:05of rapid fire some of these guys. I mean Casey Conpsion I think it's a little rude to rapid fire him. I to me he's

77:11like you have him in a weekly starter tier. The way I would kind of rank this out I would probably have him in his own

77:17tier.

77:17>> That's how I have it >> behind these guys.

77:19>> That's how I have it too.

77:20>> Okay, nice. And then uh Omar Cooper has had a big rise as far as, you know, the projected draft capital. Denzel Boston's

77:28cooled a little bit. He's he's, you know, was seen as a first round wide receiver, maybe more of an early second

77:34round type of guy now. Um, so those three guys are kind of the next three up. What what jumps out to you about

77:39them?

77:40>> Conceptsion is really good and it drives me nuts when people are looking at, you know, yards per run numbers only and

77:46they're just querying PFF and saying, "Oh, he has a bad analytical profile."

77:50Because he just doesn't like it's it's >> No, he he has a good analytical profile.

77:53>> He has a 78th percentile breakout score.

77:55You know, if you look at his um you know, his career yards per run, sure, it's only like a 50th percentile

78:01overall, but you know, first downs per out run looks fine. uh he played in the slot a lot obviously his first couple

78:07years at NC State uh and then he when he transferred they moved him to the outside at at&m and when he was on and

78:14last year he had his best yards per run season he was actually better uh yards per out run-wise on the outside than he

78:19was out of the slot and then the big thing to his profile that the model looks at is rushing production like he

78:24was able to uh line up in the back field frequently you know he got a lot of that work and it it doesn't look at like if

78:31you had 700 rushing yards in college it's not better than a guy who has 100 rushing yards. Just a a signal of did

78:37you get something, you know, out of uh because the team is using you in different ways and >> can you do it?

78:42>> Yeah. Yeah. And like that's why the the comps for him are guys who did that in college where you get Christian Kirk,

78:49Amecha did that in college and Randall Cobb uh all did that in in Randle Cobbs was like a really weird >> Yeah.

78:57>> He was almost a running back.

78:58>> Yeah. Right. But but uh I think Conpion is really really good and I agree like in his own tier next I think he's a way

79:04better prospect than than uh not way better but a better prospect than than Omar Cooper and Denzel Boston.

79:12>> I do too. And I hope um you know that he ends up going first round. Uh Kirk is is his top comp for me as well.

79:20>> Yeah.

79:20>> Um >> so yeah, I'm I'm a fan of his and I think he's he's a guy that kind of threw

79:26some like gadgety red flags. uh where I was like this is kind of a wide range of outcome type of profile where you know

79:32you could be talking about a guy who can kind of do it all and you know maybe you know like a little Jaden Reedes but he

79:40but he runs all the routes kind of kind of upside um but then also like we've seen we've seen the like oh man he's

79:48gonna be really fun for fantasy but then he kind of isn't enough of a wide receiver uh like a true wide receiver.

79:55Harmon was very bullish on him as like an actual route runner and that that's I loved seeing that because that >> that tells me the draft cap that draft

80:03capital might end up being there then >> draft capital might end up being there and like when you have gadget right is

80:08this guy like a real receiver and then he's breaking down the route running he's like this guy's a real receiver okay good you know so I I'm very um

80:16>> I I like him a lot and I've been trying to get more of him in the in these best drafts I think he's

80:22>> he's pretty cheap for a first round wide receiver that I think could pretty good.

80:25He's cheap.

80:26>> He's really cheap. So, I I like him a lot.

80:29>> Cooper is still fairly cheap for a first round wide receiver. I'm not sure he's really good. Uh is my issue there.

80:36>> Um but, you know, you get him. He's still his ADP in these best drafts right now is like in the 140s still. I've been

80:42trying to draft more of him. I do think the drum beat's been so consistent that he does go first round now. Um and I

80:48don't think he's going to go in the 140s. Uh, and you know, obviously rookie draft, like he'll be a first round pick

80:55in these rookie drafts in Superflex.

80:57Yeah.

80:58>> Uh, once he's a first round pick in the NFL draft, so you know, any kind of discount if you're doing any any rookie

81:04drafts pre uh dynasty or sorry, pre-NFL draft in Dynasty, uh, I think he's he's clearly a target, but best baseball is

81:12probably where you're going to be able to get ahead of that draft capital. And I do think he's a target there now as

81:16well.

81:16>> Yeah. I mean, I I don't think his profile is like that bad. you know, 55th percentile breakout score. Uh, his

81:22career yards per out run is actually in the 79th percentile. It's pretty strong.

81:25Um, he did get the I mean, I know people have made this comp, but he did get a DVO comp in in my model. He's like a

81:31he's like a lesser >> from a size perspective, he's not nearly as big, but I wrote in his blurb in the

81:37guide like there's a lot of identical marks uh compared to Debo, like production related marks. D.A. played less in the slot than Omar Cooper did,

81:45but Cooper was still like a 50-50 slot outside kind of player. Uh, Rasheed Rice was his top comp though. Like, and and I

81:52I say that and people are like, "Oh, man, Rasheed Rice." And I'm like, I mean, the model didn't love Rasheed Rice.

81:57>> Yeah, Rasheed Rice wasn't that great of an I mean, >> that amazing of a pro.

82:01>> Second round pick, you know?

82:02>> Right. So, I I think I think Cooper >> Ricky Paw is the top guy for me.

82:06>> Okay. I think I think that he's good.

82:09Um, and and like I have no like I'm I'm pretty middle of the road with Cooper overall cuz he does have the, you know,

82:15additional stuff, the some of the rushing stuff, you know, some of the like using in different ways kind of player. Um, and so, you know, that that

82:23helped him a little bit as well.

82:25>> Yeah, Matthew Golden comes up as well as a little bit of this year's Matthew Golden vibes to me. Um, but I do I do,

82:33you know, I I don't know. I think he's the golden bet is like should we have been drafting him in the fifth round or

82:39whatever what he you know he finally get up to in baseball no >> um postdraft but like >> getting ahead of a guy who's going to go

82:47first round the NFL draft that people kind of haven't priced that in is just good process right and so if you can get

82:53him now in the 140s you're going to be less inclined to chase him later >> like don't have your head in the sand on

82:59Omar Cooper he's very likely at this point I think to go in the first round and if he doesn't go in the first round

83:03he's going top 50 like this this is not just some BS like there's there's I think >> I think there's a real signal to to hear

83:12on his draft capital and obviously it's not a lock >> but uh the NFL seems pretty enamored with him. I would be kind of shocked if

83:19he fell out of round two at this point.

83:21So >> Oh yeah. Oh yeah.

83:22>> Um yeah, you you do want to bet on that draft capital. Uh Boston, any thoughts on him?

83:29>> He looks so much like Jaden Higgins for me. Um, I think that's that's kind of the player that we're that we're looking

83:36at here. Um, I can see Courtland Sutton, you know, in that that kind of like but I I don't think that this is a like cuz

83:43cuz Tedro McMillan for me last year had a Courtland Sutton comp and I think that was more of like a median to probably

83:50more median comp, let's say.

83:51>> It's sort of like Courtland Sutton complimentary versus Courtland Sutton derogatory.

83:55>> Right. Right. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah.

83:57This is this is a this is a that that's more of a ceiling outcome I think for Boston. The thing I'll say about Boston

84:02is that he played the first couple years with a lot of competition and I do think that we should adjust even if it's

84:09subjectively you know for the fact that he played with three NFL pros. The one thing I'll say also to that is that he

84:14played with Jeremy Bernard in Washington for one of those years that second year that he was there and Bernard outperformed Denzel Boston. Now, they're

84:23to two totally different wide receivers, but from like a a raw production stamp, like they were getting Jeremy Bernard some like special touches and and more

84:32some sometimes gadgety touches and then offense, but that also is kind of telling in a way, right? But they're totally different wide receivers. I

84:40don't think it's like such an apples to apples comparison, but I do think it's an interesting one at least because we

84:44have someone in this class that he actually did end up playing with. But look, his his like breakout score isn't terrible. It's not again Jaden Higgins,

84:51like I thought Jaden Higgins was fine last year. Like he's and I I still think now he's fine, you know, like I I don't

84:57think he had like an egregiously bad rookie season, especially whenever you compare what he did to the other Texans wide receivers. I think that's probably

85:04the outcome that we're looking at with Boston.

85:07>> I'm drafting some Boston now, too, cuz he's falling. He's he's kind of flipping with Cooper where the ADP says Cooper's

85:13in the 140s, but he might go in the 130s and the Boston's ADP is in the 130s. you can get him in the 140s now too because

85:19because people I think rightly are are thinking Cooper is more likely to go first.

85:24>> Yeah.

85:24>> Uh top comps for me were Xavier Lette and Denzel Mims. So he's a little bit like but it might work for us. Uh but

85:32but like but it might you know.

85:35>> Yeah.

85:35>> It really might. Um >> and I think you know just betting on the oh god I pulled in the next one. It's

85:41it's Jaylen Pulk. Uh run run for the hills. Um he's I think the draft you're betting on the draft capital with him.

85:49Um but I think the draft capital although not as strong as it once looked will be there. Uh you know kind of top

85:5550 level anyway. So, >> yeah.

85:57>> Um, this class is I would say like it doesn't it doesn't stay like super deep,

86:05but there's a big group of of uh players that I think are like solid swings like swinging for contract.

86:14>> You're going to get some hits from this group, >> singles and doubles, you know, kind kind of I mean, you could you say that

86:19upside's always hard. You could hit some home runs here, but like these are these are good swings to be taking. Like I'm

86:26excited to be able to get uh to take swings on this like final group of players here. That's really deep. Um we

86:34haven't talked about Jeremy Bernard, Chris Brazzle. Um Ted Hurst, I like Malachi Fields got some buzz, kind of cooled off a bit. Antonio Williams I

86:44like have some interest in. Zachariah Branch is kind of scary as a gadgety guy, but he's athletic and could be kind

86:50of fun, especially for best baseball. I think, you know, like maybe he he surprises a little bit the end of the

86:55year. Chris Bell, it would be interesting, but he tore his ACL, which which muddies the picture there. Elijah Sat kind of pops for me more

87:03analytically than clearly does on tape because he every day I look at mockdraft database, he he moves down a spot.

87:08>> Um Bryce Lance is starting to move into the day two conversation.

87:13Uh those would be kind of the Jacobe Lane I would like if the NFL liked him more. He seems to be probably more of a

87:19day three guy now. But uh yeah, a lot kind of a big group after that. Any anyone jump out to you there?

87:26>> Yeah, I mean I again I think that like I think that there's a lot of upside to a Chris Brazzle profile even though you

87:33know he has a Denzel Mims Josh Reynolds as his top but then like George Pickins shows up you know like he has

87:38>> that ability for sure.

87:40>> Talk about the but it might work for us.

87:41I mean, the Tennessee wide receiver, I think the Tennessee wide receiver is actually he's get like he is cheaper than he would be in the fantasy

87:48community. Yes, because we're all sick of it.

87:50>> We've all been burned by Jaylen Hyatt and such like his breakout score was 64th percentile. Uh first downs per route per route run was actually 71st

87:57percentile. Like he he didn't have that bad of a production profile. Um and there's some people that like really do like him a lot. So, he's he's definitely

88:06interesting. Jeremy Bernard, the problem I have with him is number one is his his route run like per route run profile

88:14isn't very strong, but um when you look at his comps, a lot of them come out to be kind of gadgety. Uh you get Paris

88:21Campbell. Yeah. Uh Lynn Bowden was one for me. Mohamed Senu was one where it's that would be fine, whatever. But like

88:28>> hey, the Patriots traded a second round pick for that guy.

88:30>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh I I I think he I think that he can work in the right spot like as a um you know slot inside out uh you

88:39know maybe play a little bit on the outside and and uh you know just be a a target earner and in a bad offense you

88:46know if he were to land in that kind of environment. Elijah Serat you mentioned I think that he has the best day two

88:51production profile of anyone you know age adjusted production profile. He went from a zeroar recruit playing at St.

88:58Francis to winning the national title and being basically Indiana's contested catch guy, you know, like it's it's crazy how his journey has gone and he's

89:07just gotten better every year. Um, and so there's there's at least some intrigue there. Uh, you mentioned Zack Branch. I hate Zack Branch. I just can't

89:16like it's just like you look at you look at >> I kind of like him.

89:20>> Okay. like not for dynasty, but like I just I it's so easy for me to see how this guy like

89:25>> puts two usable weeks >> 18 like 18 18 followed by 22 in the at the end of the season. I'm like, "Yeah,

89:32baby. That's it. You don't have to do anything else."

89:34>> So, I query I queried this for the guide. He had he had 45.5% of his career targets coming behind the line of

89:40scrimmage, which is obscene, right?

89:42That's the highest of anyone in the database.

89:44>> Just try it out. See how it works around next December. just >> but if if he's selected inside the top

89:49100, okay, he'll be the 11th player drafted in that range with a breakout or since 2020 with a career behind the li

89:57behind the line target rate above 30%.

90:00He's at 45 and a half% 30%. Is this is this amusing? The first uh he's the first to exceed 40%. Okay, the only two

90:08players in that bucket who have kind of hit or have hit are Wel Robinson and Luther Burton, but but both of them had

90:14really good age adjusted production profiles. The other players were Lynn Bowden. It's literally every gadget player who has busted in the second

90:21round or third round since 2020. Lyn Bowden, Amari Rogers, Anthony Schwarz, Cadarius Tony, Rond Del Moore, rest in peace, Bis Jones, Trey Tucker, and

90:30Malachi Kley. I mean, like, let's >> The only guy you didn't mention there because Wel Robinson is his top comp for

90:35me too, but Curtis Samuel also popped up.

90:38>> Yeah. I mean, I I got I mean, Miko Hardman was his top comp for me.

90:42>> Mik Hardman. Yeah.

90:43>> Yeah. Greatard Hardman. Harbin had a better production profile.

90:46>> Great. I'm into it. Give me Give me a He's He's completely for the purp Zachary Branch. I'm looking at him at

90:54the end of drafts, 19th round, and it's like him versus Jeremy Bernard or whatever, and I'm like, you know what?

91:01Give me Branch. I I like I I've been breaking ties to Branch because I just feel like I know like what he's there to

91:07do and he's there to get scheme targets and and you know what? See See what you got. you spend a third round pick on the

91:14guy, see if he's any good.

91:15>> I mean, look, if a team really thinks they can develop him, then good on them.

91:18It's just a really tough bet to make.

91:20And then the one guy that I think the best ball market in particular has just not caught up on with what where he

91:26could go in the draft is Antonio Williams where >> Yeah, I've been taking him more recently.

91:31>> No one cares about Antonio Williams in in the fantasy world. Like like >> I don't either, but I but I care about

91:36draft capital.

91:37>> Right. Right. and he and like but he he was one of those guys that had like okay production throughout his collegiate

91:42career. It wasn't he didn't have the spike, but he had okay enough production throughout. And actually, one of his comps was was lad maconi in my now I'm

91:50not looking at yards per I'm not looking at per route run stuff with the comps.

91:54It's just looking at zap model inputs and they're not using uh route run stuff. So obviously that's where lad looks look unbelievable.

92:02>> And so uh but yeah, I mean like he also gets Marcus Wheaten and Roman Wilson. So it could be like a very bad slot player,

92:08you know, if it's like a Roman Wilson type.

92:11But yeah, I mean like he's someone at least who I remember like my rankings had him at like wide receiver 11 or 12,

92:17you know, in the prospect guide in this class and then I looked at the best rankings and cuz I I I have I didn't do

92:22any best ball until after the guide was done because I just didn't have any time and I looked I'm like, "Oh, he's like

92:27wide receiver 20 right now from from a rookie standpoint, right?"

92:30>> Yeah. Yeah.

92:30>> And I just think there's a there's a delta there that's just that's just not matching.

92:34>> He's completely free. Yeah, I I have been taking him in in the 20th round and and I love this group where I I know

92:42that a lot of these guys aren't going to hit, but you can get I mean, you're getting guys who you're going to find a

92:48guy who was taken in the second round.

92:50>> You take you could bank a guy who goes in the first round completely for free, you know, in at the end of these drafts

92:56because there's so many guys who have like pretty solid draft capital projections. Um and none of them really cost anything. He's in that mix. I mean,

93:03he's been pretty consistently like, you know, in the 60s or, you know, late 50s or whatever of uh >> projected draft capital. So,

93:11>> the only guy that I throw out there the only guy I'd throw out there that I just can't get behind as Malachi Fields.

93:16>> I'm not into him.

93:17>> Aside from Zack Branch, who obviously, you know, I think is more of a I think like a meme receiver, right?

93:22>> You're right. I I do think you're right.

93:24I just think that the meme like might have like might catch on for a minute.

93:28>> No, it could. In a way, I actually agree with you. Yeah. But the Malachi Fields thing, I mean, his his analytical

93:33profile is so beyond egregious. And I think this is a this is a Senior Bowl thing. This is a >> it's a Senior Bowl thing and it faded.

93:39That's the other thing with Fields is like that cuz I was like I was willing I was willing to entertain it and then it

93:44faded. We haven't heard about Fields much at all. Like I I don't think he's going to be drafted. I think he's

93:48probably a day three guy. I think he had his moment in the sun. But >> yeah, agree. Um, before we get out of

93:53here, just anything on the tight end, Sadique, uh, super athletic, but so is Eli Sters or Sters. Um, and I like them

94:03kind of very similarly, but I know Sadi rated very well for you in in the new tight end model that you guys launched.

94:09>> Yeah. So, I'm definitely worried about Sadi just because like it's he just has like a good production profile. It's not

94:15elite by any means. And Sters definitely has a better production profile overall, a little bit better of a breakout score and stuff. and Sadiq also comps to

94:23scarier players in general like you know like no a fan OJ Howard is top two. The one thing I'll say though is that I do

94:31think that people are going to be scared off of Sadique because of the comp side of things right when tight end just

94:39inherently doesn't have as many players to choose from from a comp standpoint >> and so it's a little bit more difficult

94:45to put a lot of eggs in the comp basket for tight ends. Also, like no offense a scary comp, but like

94:53>> intellectually like is a tight end who's hyper athletic on the field to catch passes and got drafted super high. Is

95:00that like a bad comp or >> Right. And we're looking at we're looking at these like singular outcomes when you know like like and then and

95:06then the other thing with tight end comps is that you say, "Oh, he's Evan Ingram." And everyone's like, "Oh, I don't want Evan. You should want Evan

95:11Ingram." That's a really good outcome.

95:13Yeah. Like like that's that's good, you know. And then like Sters, I think that there could be something to the blocking

95:20stuff and like, you know, we want these guys on the field and and whatnot. Like maybe there's a little bit of that, but

95:25I do think that he has the ability to be pretty transcendent, you know, but I I also think there's a chance that he's

95:31like Mike Cassiki, right? Like that's an outcome that we could see from him as well. Sure.

95:36>> That would be that would be scary. So, you know, I I the model does like Sadique more. That's largely draft

95:42capital driven because I think that the numbers themselves are really not like like Sters I would argue has a better production profile. Um

95:50>> do you do you know like where Sadiq would have come in against last year's class? Like would he have ahead of these

95:55guys?

95:56>> Last year so I think that he was more in line with Warren and and Lovelin was the tight end one of the three. Um yeah and

96:02that's not hindsight because they're they're not even part of the test set for this new tight end model that we did

96:06because they haven't played enough. So, um, yeah, the model's really interesting the way that it brings things together.

96:11I I can get like really quickly like it'll look at like take Hunter Henry versus Michael Mayer, right? Hunter Henry and Michael Mayer had very

96:20identical size profiles. They had very identical uh production profiles with the stuff that we're looking at. The difference is that Michael Mayer was and

96:27they had similar draft capital. The difference was that Michael Mayer had much better athleticism. And you would sit there and say, "Oh, that means

96:33Michael Mayer is the better prospect."

96:35But the model actually likes Hunter Henry a decent bit more because of what draft capital is lifting in that profile. It's likely telling us that

96:42there are things that we're not necessarily measuring that draft capital is measuring. And so there's sort of this weird dynamic between uh speed

96:50score, you know, athleticism and draft capital and production. This like sort of like triangle of factors uh that are playing off of each other based on where

96:59these guys go. Just like Harold Fannon being a day two, you know, round three guy with really good production, but bad

97:06athleticism is actually not a bad thing because he was still able to get decent draft capital despite that bad athleticism.

97:12>> Did you include the duckfootedness in the model or not?

97:14>> Yeah, you know, I met I met his mom last year. Did you know?

97:16>> I heard you as >> she's a wonderful woman. She's a wonderful woman.

97:22>> Yeah, she seems she seems wonderful.

97:24>> Very happy for I I actually did the I I I asked her. So, for people who don't know, I asked her, I saw her at the

97:29fantasy football expo and I asked her if uh she too walked like a duck. I was a little bit, you know, had some white

97:36claws in me, but >> yeah, I was about to ask.

97:39>> Luckily, luckily, luckily her response her response was I said I said, "Oh, do you walk like a duck, too?" And she goes

97:46she goes, "Who do you think taught him how to do that?" And she started waddling back and forth. It was amazing.

97:51>> It was incredible. And then for him to be awesome, like what a >> you know.

97:55>> I'm gonna love Harold Fannon forever because you know.

97:58>> Yeah.

97:59>> All right, we gota we got to get out of here. Uh JJ, thanks so much uh for jumping on here. As as you mentioned,

98:05this is a yearly tradition now.

98:07>> Um and and a draft class that honestly, you know, maybe we've gone too far.

98:12We've jumped the shark a little bit.

98:13This is there's some intriguing guys in this draft class.

98:17>> Next year's will probably be better, but uh we'll talk about that then. Um, uh, yeah, good luck to everybody in in your

98:24drafts, your rookie drafts, um, and your baseball drafts, and we'll we'll see you back here soon. Uh, JJ, thanks again.

98:31Anything else, uh, you just want to let the people know where can they find this guide, and, uh, yeah, tell us,

98:37>> yeah, late round.com. You can purchase it on there and then, um, you know, the podcast and stuff. I'll be talking I

98:42mean, I'm talking about prospects for the next, you know, month and a half, two months. So, check it all out.

98:47Laterround.com.

98:48>> Love it. Later, guys.

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