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Angles and Upside Week 7 w/ Rich Hribar

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

2 hr 28 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 17, 2025

Published

Fri, October 17, 2025

30

Player insights

28

Players mentioned

Topics

Drake MayeIsiah PachecoBlaine GabbertBrock PurdyCam WardChigoziem OkonkwoGeno SmithGunnar HelmHarold FanninHunter HenryJakobi MeyersJalen RichardJayden DanielsJaylen Warren

Player analysis

Player insights

30

Blaine Gabbert

NegativeProjection44:15

Gabbert is cited as a historically poor quarterback start, ranking higher in efficiency than Cam Ward despite being considered one of the worst starters ever, underscoring how bad Ward's early career performance has been.

Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection43:40

Purdy is noted as one of the really efficient quarterbacks in NFL history (250-play career sample dating back to 1999) based on EPA data, ranking among the elite tier of early-career quarterback performances alongside Daniels, Drake Maye, and other top starters.

Cam Ward

NegativeProjection25:52

Ward has posted one of the worst quarterback efficiency starts in NFL history (250-play career sample dating back to 1999), ranking at the bottom of the EPA efficiency chart below Josh Rosen, Will Levis, Zack Wilson, and Blaine Gabbert. With only 16.2% boom plays (one EPA or more) versus league average of 24%, and the highest bust rate in the league, the source assesses Ward as fundamentally struggling rather than situational, stating 'I think he stinks. I think Ward's bad.' The source gave Ward a one-week window to prove himself and he failed to deliver. The efficiency has been so bad that by sheer variance alone things should turn in Ward's favor, but the source would consider it a win if Ward reaches Spencer Rattler's current efficiency level, suggesting significant downside from draft expectations.

Chigoziem Okonkwo

NegativeRole47:30

Okonkwo is part of a split backfield arrangement in the Titans offense, competing with Gunner Helm for touches in a situation that faces a Patriots defense elite against the run, limiting his upside in Week 7.

Drake Maye

PositiveProjection19:00

Drake May is quarterback one in EPA per game, just ahead of Dak Prescott, with awesome success rate and strong underlying numbers. He was a tournament-winning QB last week and faces a Titans pass defense with poor pass rush (Jeffrey Simmons is strong but the rest are weak). However, May's offensive line isn't great, he takes sacks when pressured, and he hunts big plays downfield, making him somewhat matchup dependent. This is a favorable matchup where he should have another strong game, though he's not the most stackable due to Stefon Diggs' injury status. Working with Josh McDaniels who knows how to design an offense.

NegativeMatchup25:06

Patriots QB expected to be the focal point of the offense if the run game struggles against Tennessee; however, source expresses concern that Jeffrey Simmons could disrupt Maye, who takes sacks, and the Patriots offensive line is not good, creating sack risk in this matchup. Despite ranking not far below the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history (since 1999), Maye faces a difficult defensive setup.

Geno Smith

NegativeProjection10:48

Gino Smith is struggling significantly this season with efficiency metrics very similar to Bryce Young and Justin Fields; he is turning the ball over frequently. The source notes the Raiders have the lowest drop-back rate in neutral game script over the past three weeks, but as huge road underdogs against the Chiefs, they will be forced to drop back more, creating an unfavorable environment for Smith and the Raiders offense.

Gunnar Helm

NegativeRole47:30

Helm is part of a split backfield arrangement in the Titans offense, competing with Chig Okonkwo for touches in a situation that faces a Patriots defense elite against the run, limiting his upside in Week 7.

Harold Fannin

PositiveValue14:01

DFS tight end at $3,900 on DraftKings with significant opportunity after David Njoku was ruled out. The source prefers Fannin over Noah Gray at only $400 more salary, projecting better fantasy output and describing him as 'more fun to go to' with better projection.

Hunter Henry

PositiveValue21:21

Hunter Henry emerges as the preferred DFS stacking partner with Drake May given Stefon Diggs' injury status. The source positions him as the alternative tight end stack option in a game where May is expected to perform well but lacks ideal receiving weapons.

Isiah Pacheco

NegativeUsage16:58

Chiefs RB has increased snaps and looks more efficient running the ball, but lacks a fantasy pipeline; he is only receiving additional handoffs with no receiving volume. Kareem Hunt retains all red zone work inside the 10-yard line. DFS consideration at $5,000 only due to weak RB slate; his rushing yards prop at 43.5 is the only actionable bet. The source notes he won't win tournaments this year and Kansas City is number one in neutral dropback rate, limiting his volume ceiling.

NegativeValue17:23

Pacheco is a DFS play in a weak running back week at 5,000 salary; his rushing yards prop at 43.5 is the only actionable prop bet on him. The source notes he won't win tournaments this year and Kansas City is number one in neutral dropback rate, limiting his volume ceiling.

Jakobi Meyers

NegativeUsage13:01

Raiders WR has been outscored by Trey Tucker in 3 of the past 4 weeks, indicating inconsistent production and a secondary role in the passing game relative to Tucker.

Jalen Richard

PositiveUsage11:24

Richard has been playing more on receiving downs recently with a 17% target share in week five and 18% last week, reaching 79% snap participation last week. Despite only 0.71 yards per route run, the source sees him trending toward a receiver role and questions whether he could develop into a viable receiving option, noting the trend is positive even if the current efficiency is modest.

Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection43:25

Daniels is highlighted as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history (250-play career sample dating back to 1999) based on EPA data, ranking among elite company like Mahomes, Manning, Brees, Allen, Brady, and Rodgers in his early career performance. The source notes 'Jaden Daniels is up there. He's he's having an incredible start.'

Jaylen Warren

PositiveValue15:57

DFS pay-up consideration on this slate. The source identifies Warren as one of the preferred targets if paying up from cheaper options, alongside Evan McBride.

Josh Rosen

NegativeRole43:50

Rosen is operating in organizational dysfunction with a head coach (Mike McCoy) who was not previously a head coach and a quarterback coach still calling plays rather than the offensive coordinator. This mirrors the cautionary tale of Rosen's previous rookie year under Mike McCoy's offensive system, where he was considered one of the biggest first-round busts in the last 15 years. The source notes this represents a lost developmental year that could ingrain bad habits and prevent recovery.

Kareem Hunt

PositiveRole16:58

Chiefs RB retains all red zone work inside the 10-yard line, maintaining his role as the goal-line back despite Isaiah Pacheco receiving increased snaps. Neither back is being used in the passing game.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

PositiveInjury16:03

Expected to play after being out of non-contact jersey; injury status cleared. Harrison was out of the non-contact jersey, indicating he is expected to be cleared for this week's slate.

Michael Mayer

PositiveValue11:56

Mayer had 80% snap participation and a 35% target share, positioning him as a potential volume accumulator. The source identifies him as 'somewhat interesting' on the Raiders side and emphasizes he could be a cheap tight end play for DFS; he played 80% of drop-backs last week with seven targets in a game where the Raiders only had 25 total drop-backs. If the Raiders are forced to drop back more against the Chiefs (who force teams to drop back more as huge favorites), Mayer's 7 targets could scale to 9-11 targets in a normal game script, offering double-digit target potential at a low salary.

Noah Gray

PositiveValue13:01

DFS tight end at cheap pricing with significant upside. Gray played 80% of snaps last week with 7 targets in a game where the Chiefs had only 25 dropbacks; with the Chiefs averaging 35 dropbacks per game, those 7 targets could scale to 9–11 targets in a normal game script, offering double-digit target potential at a low salary. The source identifies him as the only guy with mild DFS interest in this spot.

Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection4:00

Mahomes is operating at an elite level: QB8 in EPA per game, QB7 in success rate, with 9.6 EPA per game this season. His current play is in line with where Joe Burrow was last year and where CJ Stroud is this year. He's been running more, passing better, and has improved completion rate and yards per pass attempt. Mahomes is trending upward with 25+ fantasy points in four of the opening six games. The Raiders are a bad defense overall, supporting Mahomes' continued success. With Rice returning, the Chiefs' passing efficiency should improve further, and they've been running at a 10% pass rate of expected this season—twice as high as the second-place Chargers—suggesting more passing volume ahead. Mahomes' elite play this season now supports stacking him with pass catchers like Rice and Worthy in DFS, a strategy that was not viable last year when Mahomes wasn't operating at this high level.

Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeUsage23:13

Patriots running back under consideration for increased involvement against Titans weak run defense; however, source notes neither Stevenson nor Trayvon Henry have produced in the run game to date, and the Patriots offensive line remains subpar, creating uncertainty about whether the matchup will actually lead to increased carries.

Saquon Barkley

PositiveBreakout36:30

Barkley is a hidden hammer play against the Vikings' 23rd-ranked DVOA, 25th-ranked EPA, and 19th-ranked success rate run defense; recent comparable backs Quenton Judkins (128 yards, 40-yard TD) and Kenneth Gainwell (134 yards, 2 TDs) have exploited this weakness. Despite recent inefficiency and reduced touches due to the Eagles increasing their pass rate, Barkley is hiding in plain sight as a contrarian target with low ownership on a massively chalky week; the source frames this as a tournament-winning breakout spot where Barkley's elite matchup and potential game script funnel (Eagles establishing early leads) create a legitimate ceiling game, especially with the Vikings' elite blitz rate forcing Jalen Hurts into difficult situations.

Stefon Diggs

NegativeInjury19:30

Stefon Diggs is banged up and listed as questionable, creating uncertainty for DFS stacking with Drake May. A controversial catch ruling in the previous game (Saints) should have counted but was ruled incomplete, costing him production. His injury status makes him an unreliable stacking partner, pushing DFS players toward Hunter Henry or naked Drake May instead.

Travis Kelce

PositiveRole14:49

Kelce's role and target share are being diminished by Travis Rice's return from injury. Rice 'earns his targets' and 'does the Kelsey thing better than Kelsey now,' rendering Kelce's role minute. The source notes Kelce is touchdown-dependent for fantasy value and is not excited about him at current pricing; would be more interested if salary drops in coming weeks as Rice eats into his production.

Van Jefferson

NegativeRole47:22

Van Jefferson is now the primary receiver in the Titans offense following Calvin Ridley's removal, but the source notes he functions as a one-on-one clasher with no nuance as a route-runner, limiting his effectiveness in the passing game.

Will Levis

NegativeProjection26:32

Levis is ranked at the very bottom of NFL's EPA efficiency chart (250-play career sample dating back to 1999), positioned even below Cam Ward and other historically poor-performing quarterbacks, indicating severe efficiency struggles. The source uses Levis as a historical reference point for poor quarterback starts, noting that even historically bad starters like Levis rank higher in efficiency than Ward.

Xavier Worthy

PositiveValue6:30

Worthy is positioned as a strong tournament play option alongside Rice. With Rice returning, Worthy's role remains significant given Mahomes' elite play and the 30-point team total. Worthy's target profile is strong: 15% first-read target rate (vs. Jordan Addison's 13%) and 23% target share on route runs (vs. Addison's 17%). Worthy has been earning targets at a better rate than Addison despite not having Rice on the field yet. However, some second-read volume may shift to Rice, who specializes in underneath routes. Worthy functions as a more trustworthy, bigger part of the offense compared to a Jameson Williams archetype. Worthy can be double-stacked with Rice at current prices; the source positions Rice as the underneath specialist (Amari Cooper archetype) and Worthy as a more trustworthy Jameson Williams type—a bigger part of the offense.

Zach Wilson

NegativeProjection44:15

Wilson is cited as a historically poor quarterback start, ranking higher in efficiency than Cam Ward despite his own struggles, underscoring how bad Ward's early career performance has been.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,606

0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside YouTube channel and podcast. My name is Pat Ran.

0:04You can follow all of my content at legendary upside.com.

0:08With me today, Rich Rebar for Anglesand Upside podcast. Rich, how's it going?

0:13>> It's going good, man. It's what, midocctober, week seven. This is like managely like halfway home and it feels like it's it's like still so fluid. It's

0:22there's you know there's so many injuries and then we're getting guys back this week which is fun. So, we're at that point too where like guys got

0:28hurt and now are coming back from being >> Yeah, that's true. the the one and I'm getting to the point like there's some

0:34walkthrough stuff now where I'm like >> you know these guys like you know what they do you know so we're getting to

0:39that part of the season but it is still like there's still I there's a number of spot we'll get to some some spots where

0:46I'm like I don't know that we do know some of these teams yet like there are defenses that I think are overrated and

0:51there's you know some some spots that are like teams that have dealt with so many injuries where things are are pretty fluid so we're trying to figure

0:58out which version of them we're getting and Um yeah, we're but we're we are in trend season. We're in we have enough

1:04data to where we can start, you know, look at how this guy's over the last three weeks season we're we're there. So

1:11yeah, >> so it's I like that you can start parsing the data a little bit more instead of just like here's all the data

1:17we have, >> right?

1:18>> Um >> and I love that because some of that stuff just changes on the fly. Like you remember like last year like it wasn't

1:23at this point, it was a little it was like two weeks before this point, but like remember like the Eagles opened up

1:27last year as like a historically bad defense and then they were like literally the best defense in the NFL for like like the final 11 weeks and it

1:35always seems like that.

1:36>> Yep. Yep.

1:38>> Yeah. Like the like the Panthers run D is now like good. I know it's at least noteworthy like where you're like, "Hey

1:44man, like this is like three weeks in a row where like they're smooshing the run because especially when we get to that

1:48game because you know we're expecting Bruce Hall to get like a huge workload be out of necessity but like >> what else are they going to do?"

1:54>> Yeah. And u I was out at Davis and um I think you do the show at Davis Neil and he called it like that's going to be a

1:59service academy game.

2:01>> Yeah. Yeah. Which I agree with him on.

2:04>> Like Army verse navy.

2:06>> Yeah.

2:08Oh man. Um, all right. Let's kick it off with the Raiders at Chiefs, which, um, I have Rashi Rice as the cover boy this

2:15week of the walkthrough. Obviously, he's coming back and, uh, I think he's coming back in in a pretty awesome spot for his

2:25skill set and for the offense as a whole. I I noted that the Raiders play a ton of man, play, sorry, play a ton of

2:32zone coverage. They don't really play much man at all. and Rashi Rice has been awesome against zone. Uh and we've got

2:40this, you know, the the Raiders uh are just a bad defense in general. So, we should see Mahomes having a lot of

2:46success here. Um the, you know, some question of how much Rice will play here. Fowler did have a quote that, you

2:55know, he was gonna have a big workload right away and then Reed made fun of that when they asked him how much he's

3:00gonna play. He said, "Ask Jeremy." Um so, we'll we'll see. But uh but yeah, the to the zone point, Rice has a 28%

3:09targets per out run against zone since 2023. Um and 3.08 yards per out run over that span only. Puka Aua at 3.10 has a

3:18higher yards per out run against zone.

3:19He's also been great against cover three, which the Raiders play at a very high rate, the second highest rate in the league at 46%. Um and against cover

3:28three, Rice 29% targets per run and 3.32 yards per run. again only puka more efficient since 2023. Um so this yeah

3:37I'm like it's kind of a a rice game plan sort of game >> and obviously he's been you know he was

3:44so good last year where we're we're kind of all hoping for that like mini puka uh level breakout to continue in this game.

3:50What are your thoughts on this one?

3:52Yeah, it makes sense that he he is so good against zone because when you think of how he's operated in that offense,

3:57you know, near the line of scrimmage, big yak guy, uh lower A dot player, but I'm excited to see how it all fits

4:03together because, you know, we we thought we might had to wait to this point to like start believing in the Chiefs and they it already started a

4:09couple weeks ago kind of worthy came back.

4:11>> Uh we're because we're starting to see like sealing Mahomes is back. Like Mahomes was like in the last couple years, even when we get like a QB1

4:18scoring week, it would be like QB8, QB11. Like now we're seeing like like he has 25 or more fantasy points in four of

4:26the opening six games. Now some of that is like he's been running more and you're getting some of those rushing touchdowns. But

4:31>> we've also seen his completion rate, you know, go up. He's coming off a season high yards per pass attempt. Like

4:36everything's just been trended like snowballing forward.

4:39>> It's it's everything because he's he's he's running more. He's passing better.

4:44he gets Rice back. So now we're, you know, we're more excited about the passing efficiency. Um, and they're passing uh like the Chiefs. They've had

4:52last last two weeks 14% pass rate of expected against the Jaguars, 14% again against the Lions. They were at 17% on

5:00first and 10 against the Jaguars, 12% against the Lions. They have a 10% pass rate of expected this season, which is

5:05twice as high as the Chargers who are in second place. And so you you get the volume, you look at the efficiency, um,

5:14which this is EPA per game, so so volume factors in a bit as well, but Mahomes is up to quarterback eight in EPA per game

5:20and quarterback seven in success rate with a 9.6 EPA per game this year. Um, he's he's kind of in line with where Joe

5:29Burrow was last year. If you look at Mahomes' play last year, it's in line with where CJ Strad is this year. So

5:37like last year Mahomes versus this year M it's like literally like this year CJ Stra versus last year Joe Burrow, you

5:43know, that's that's the level. And um that's before he gets Rice back and and he gets a great matchup. So it's it's

5:51easy to get excited about him here.

5:52>> Yeah. Yeah. Sorry to all the people that are like, you know, exhausted by the Chiefs and still want this, you know,

5:58they're looking like it's getting better. Uh so so sorry. Here we are again. Yeah, I mean it's just it's an exciting matchup. up. I mean, they're

6:06huge favorites uh against a team that really doesn't rush the passer, even though like Max Crosby and Mahomes have like this little like little rivalry. Um

6:13but, you know, from a DFS perspective, Rice is going to be really popular on DraftKings. FanDuel at least had some religion and made like priced them up.

6:21It's also on a slate, too, like this week where the main slate is kind of void of like a lot of top receivers on

6:27the season. You know, JSN is on Monday night. Puka is not he wouldn't have been on it anyways, but they play in London.

6:32Drake L Drake London is on Sunday night.

6:34uh like all these all these top guys. So it it does really kind of uh come together for like Rice to kind of hit

6:40the ground running in terms of excitement and it does make kind of Xavier Worthy kind of fun for like >> uh you know tournament play and stuff or

6:47or just playing with it's not even like you have to fade Rice you can play him with you know Mahomes too because

6:53Mahomes is playing at that level. Last year we have never been like, "Hey, try to double stack Mahomes with like Well,

6:59you never did. It was always just Rice because Mahomes wasn't operating at that high level to take two guys.

7:04>> Worthy wasn't there yet.

7:05>> Yeah. And um so yeah, there's some like maybe like when you look at like the top end like targets that Rice had last

7:12year, we should expect those to maybe have some volatility because we haven't seen any single play with Rice Worthy, Kelsey, and Hollywood Brown on the field

7:19together yet. But all off season, the organization has talked about how like Rashid Rice is like their leader in the wide receiver room. Like this passing

7:28game is going to run through him. So, we're going to get a chance to see proof of concept. It's in a great spot. I

7:33don't I think you should be excited to insert him in lineups. I think you should be excited to play him. Um but

7:38also like said, just don't overlook worthy because I think the way Mahomes is playing, there's someone else coming along for this ride with a 30-point team

7:45total.

7:45>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it was one of as I was like looking into it, I was like, "Yeah, I think, you know, maybe they'll work

7:50him back slow, but he's definitely wide receiver, too." I was like, "Well, they seem like play a decent amount. He's probably highend." Well, this is a great

7:57match. He's probably low end, and it's like by the end I was like, "He's a wide receiver one, baby." Like, I'm I'm I'm

8:01ready. I'm ready to trust Rasheed Rice in lineups. Um, I'm I'm going to be playing him in DFS. I compared Xavier

8:07Worthy in the walkthrough and this probably seems derogatory, but I don't think it's that derogatory, but I I compared him to Jordan Addison in his

8:14his profile. First read target rate of 15%. Addison's been at 13%, but Addison has Jefferson on the field and Worthy hasn't had Rice on the field. And

8:22>> Wory's been earning targets at a at a better rate. He's got a 23% target spout run to Addison 17%. But I think some of

8:29that like second read stuff is probably going to go to Rice. That's like, you know, that's his kind of superpower.

8:35He's he gets open underneath and and Mahomes knows where to find him. So I think but like if you think about double

8:42stacking him here like if you think of Rice is kind of the Jefferson but he's not as much of a downfield guy. He's

8:49more of an underneath. He's more of an Ammonro than a Jefferson in terms of archetype and then Worthy is kind of

8:54maybe your Jameson but a little bit more trustworthy. You know a bigger part of the offense a better version of of a

9:00Jameson play. You you could do that double stack at these prices. So, um I do I do have some interest in that. Most

9:08of my interest is Rice. He's going to be very chalky in DFS.

9:11>> Oh, yeah. On DraftKings, he's going to be real popular.

9:14>> Yeah. But so what? Like we don't have a lot, you know, like Yeah, I'm planning >> um the And we don't have JSN, right?

9:22JSN's on >> No, JSN's Monday night. Uh 10 p.m.

9:26Eastern start. So, apologies, East Coast dads. That's be a tough one for us. Ah, I don't I don't like the If you're going

9:33to double header Monday night, overlap them. The point is that I get the the tool the two screens. I want the split

9:40screen. I don't want to have to watch two island games back to back. That's the worst. That's the worst.

9:46>> You're West Coast. I know you're not like a Rams guy, but the Rams play in London. Like, what is everyone doing

9:51there? Like getting up at 5:30 and watching the Rams.

9:54>> It's 6:30. Yeah. And it's awful. I I I'm sick of it. It was It's kind of fun.

9:59like early in the like a week four London game is fun because you're so you're still like if football's on like

10:05I will change everything in my life to make sure I watch it but by like week seven you're like oh we've done this how

10:10many weeks in a row and 6:30 >> I think this is the last one right is it I can't remember >> it's time it's time to end it

10:17>> I feel bad when I feel bad when the West Coast teams are over there because the fan bases just like have to get up so

10:22early >> Yeah.

10:25Um what on the Raiders side of this game like the big the big concern I would say especially from DFS um you know do we

10:33have the upside for from homes double stack right well the reason that would fail or one of the reasons would be the

10:39Raiders just don't push them at all and they have a pretty low implied team total just 17 um and you've got you know

10:48Gino really struggling this year his efficiency is very similar to Bryce Young and Justin Fields on the season, which seem seems impossible given how

10:57bad Fields was last week, but he's had his moments, too. Uh Gino, yeah, he's turning the ball over a bunch. Um this

11:04isn't a great defensive matchup. Like the Chiefs are are pretty solid. Uh so, you know, not not an ideal spot. Jacobe

11:13Myers is banged up. Bowowers isn't going to play. Uh I at the same time if you look from like a fantasy perspective, Gent's been

11:24playing more on receiving downs recently. U and he's been targeted at a much higher rate. He has 17% target share in week five and 18% last week and

11:34he he was up to 79% of snaps last week.

11:37So I'm like if Jenty's out there all the time, isn't he like kind of achan? like is he is that where we're headed with

11:43him where like we could get there as a receiver even if he doesn't he's only at 0.71 yards per hour and so that might be

11:49optimistic but it's kind of like trending toward that role and then the other guy on the Raiders side that's somewhat interesting is Michael Mayer

11:56who had 80% rap participation and a 35 35% targets per out run and he could just kind of accumulate volume. So do do

12:05you see the Raiders maybe beating this team total or are they just going to flop here? I mean, they always give the

12:10Chiefs kind of one hell game. I don't know if this will be it or not. Um, but they've really tried to hide, Gino, and

12:16I don't think they're going to be able to do that here. So, the past three weeks, they actually have the lowest

12:20drop back rate in neutral game script in the NFL the past three weeks because they've been they're just not able to do

12:26that here as as you know, huge road underdogs. like this is they're going to have to drop back and have drop backs

12:32and we don't know if Meyers is even going to play if they're going to hold him out because maybe they're trying to

12:36trade him through the by week like >> um obviously in season long stuff you're just playing JTY like you just are it's

12:43not a it's not a desirable spot though on the road low team total you hope he can catch enough passes two weeks ago

12:48when they got blown out in Indianapolis he that's kind of like how he saved his game right like he had the same seven

12:54targets five catches 40 yards in the Indianapolis game that's what you're hoping for is game. You hope maybe you luck box and do a touchdown, right? It's

13:01like, but you're not bringing him along with any Chief stacks, right? Mayor would be like the only guy to to bring

13:07as like maybe a cheap tight end play because he he played uh 80% of the drop backs last week and had seven targets in a

13:16game where like they only had 25 dropbacks. So, if we're talking about the Chiefs, like the Chiefs faced inherently just on on base rate 35 drop

13:24backs per game. if we're going to have they can't they have to just drop back and throw those seven targets could turn

13:29into maybe nine maybe 11 targets and then you're talking about hey even if it's not like the most glowing matchup you're going to take a tight end with

13:36double that can push double digit targets like any time especially in in from a DFS perspective so he's really the only guy I have some mild interest

13:44in DFS um >> Trey Tucker had already out outsc scored Jacobe Myers in three of the past four weeks anyways but we kind of know what

13:52we have with with Trey Tucker too kind of like that boom bust vertical threat. So, not just a spot where I'm

13:58really into the Raiders altogether outside of like Mayor and like you just know what you're doing at JP.

14:03>> I do think Mayor is intriguing because as we'll get to Harold Fannon uh is it opened up with with David and Jooko

14:11being ruled out and on DraftKings he's 3900 and Mayor's 3500 and and Mayor looked like he was going to be like,

14:18>> you know, medium chalk and now I don't think people really go to him. So, uh, I mean some people will. He's not going to

14:24be like completely unknown, but for 400 more you can get Fannon and I think that's just it's going to be more fun to

14:30go to him and he's going to project better. So, um, yeah, Mayor Mayor's kind of an interesting guy who could get a

14:36little bit lost in the shuffle and it's kind of a it makes sense as a bring back bring back option where the Chiefs are

14:43kind of pouring it on and the Raiders just have have to just have kind of >> How do you feel about uh Chelsea with

14:49Rice coming back cuz >> he started a little better and then now like cuz you know the start of last year

14:55their splits were because of where Rice earns his targets like he kind of rendered Kelsey kind of minute last that that yeah, that's the thing that I think

15:04really hurts Kelsey is that like Rice does the Kelsey thing better than Kelsey now. So, I think you're probably you're betting on

15:14you're betting on them to score touchdowns. And like I can see, you know, you you can see Mahomes does a little scramble around, finds Kelsey,

15:20hits him on the six-yd line. Kelsey stiff arms the linebacker, scoots into the end zone. You're like, he got there, you know, you can see it. But I don't

15:28know. He's not someone that I'm that excited about. He's not like super cheap. Like if if Kelsey drops in a couple weeks because Rice is kind of

15:36eating his lunch, then it'd be more fun.

15:39I'm basically saying I want I want uh 4,100 Kelsey is what I'm saying, >> right? Yeah. Yeah. Can we do that? Uh

15:45yeah, I think when the because on the slate in particular, I think it's going to be a lot of pay down for the the two

15:50cheap guys. And there's a couple other cheap guys still on the board that I think will draw some interest. And >> um yeah, I think if I want to pay up it,

15:57I want it to be for, you know, Warren or McBride. Although Marv looks like he's going to play now.

16:03>> Oh, does he? Okay. Yeah, he he was out of the non-cont jersey, so all the people think like he's going to get

16:10cleared. So, >> okay, that's big. Um I I now regret looking up Xavier Weaver's uh season long statline.

16:20>> No, no, you did it for the people.

16:23>> Xavier Weaver. I was like, they've got Z Jones, Michael Wilson, and then Z Jones was backto-back DMP. So I was like,

16:31"Great. I gotta figure out who is not Greg Dor."

16:34>> Oh, okay. All right. I was like, "Well, who's playing if it, you know, and it's Xavier Weaver and he has one target on

16:39the season. It's 27 yards downfield." So I was like, "Well, >> yeah. We do this. We record this for everyone that knows like Friday

16:44afternoon and like so we're like in the middle of like trying to just see like who's practicing and who's not practicing." Yeah.

16:51>> Yeah. Um All right, let's move to do Well, I guess do you have anything on the the back field for the Chiefs or

16:58not? No, I mean, so like they even mentioned it during the broadcast about trying to get Isaiah Paca more touches and they've been doing that in terms of

17:05snaps and stuff, but like he still has no pipeline to to like stuff that matters for fantasy football, which is unfortunate.

17:11>> Like he has looked better and he's gotten more snaps and he's been more efficient running the ball, but all he's

17:16doing is getting like more handoffs.

17:18Kareem Hunt is still getting all the inside the 10 stuff and they're not really throwing to either of these guys.

17:23>> No.

17:24>> So >> yeah, it's pretty gross. Pacheco is like I think gonna get played a little bit in DFS because it's not the best uh week

17:31for like the the running backs and kind of his range. He's at 5,000.

17:35>> Yeah.

17:36>> Uh no.

17:36>> His rushing yard player prop would probably be the only thing I would look at for him.

17:41>> Yeah.

17:41>> I think it's like 43 and a half.

17:43>> Is PCO ever winning me a tournament this year? Like I don't see it.

17:47>> Yeah.

17:47>> No, they like you mentioned it. Even without Rice, I mean, dude, they're they're number one in neutral dropback rate.

17:53It's funny because we watch the Thursday night game and you see Jamar Chase get all these targets and when you look at

17:57the Chiefs you're like, "Oh yeah, of course they they run the the offense through Patrick Mahomes, but we take these things for granted when they

18:02happen. Like this is a bill these are billion dollar a billion dollar industry run by like multi-million dollar like organizations and like this stuff

18:10actually doesn't happen to the degree you think it should."

18:13>> Like Mark Chase getting targeted all the times or or hey we have Patrick Holmes maybe we should just like let him win

18:18the game for us. Like we take these things for granted because it doesn't happen all the time.

18:22>> I mean, we're blessed that that he ended up with Andy Reid. There's there's like >> someone would have turned him into what

18:29they're doing with Sam Darnold this year. Like there's there are coaches in the league who are like, "Ah, he'd be so

18:34much better if he only threw 20 times a game." Um, so I'm just I'm just very thankful.

18:40>> Yeah. You know, like when Shawn McVey is just dialing up play after play for Puka, we take that stuff for granted,

18:45man. Like >> Yeah. Yeah, we do.

18:50Um, well, speaking of last last year we had a great quarterback >> with a horrible coach who didn't have any idea to use him and now we get Drake

19:01May with Josh McDaniels who actually knows how to design an offense and he's cooking. We get the Patriots going against the Titans here. Patriots have a

19:1124.25 implied team total. Um, the Patriots stuff. Uh, do you want to talk about the last week OPI calls or should

19:21I >> man? Yeah, phantom. The phantom calls. I don't know how they didn't throw a flag, Rich on the on the Dear

19:30>> Dear Douglas. They didn't throw a flag.

19:33Then later they were like, I don't think it counts. Like, why?

19:39>> I still >> You know what it was? I actually I'm sick enough that I I figured out why.

19:45They said their official explanation was that Stefon Diggs who was getting pre coverage. He he can't get off the cornerback. He basically gives up on the

19:55route. He kind of like fights with the quarterback a little bit and then stops.

19:59>> That ref the ref logged in his brain >> he was blocking.

20:03>> Yeah. Like Yeah.

20:04>> And so if basically if there's going to be a throw then I'm going to flag. He didn't throw the flag because I guess he

20:10needed to wait and to see if a pass was thrown, but there was going to be like illegal blocking downfield, which is

20:14just like completely wrong. Like he was fully running a route and the guy was initiating the contact with him, the quarterback.

20:22>> Uh I'm not tilted. Don't put in the paper I'm mad, Rich. Uh they they they absolutely cooked the Saints, which

20:29we'll we'll come up later when we talk about the Bears. But uh you know, it was even better game for May than it looked.

20:35But even with May getting robbed of of that play and another Stefon Diggs catch, it should have counted. Um he's quarterback one in EPA per game right

20:45now. Uh he's just ahead of Dak Prescott.

20:48His success rate is awesome. He is looking really really strong in the numbers and he gets a Titans pass defense that does not have a good pass

20:57rush. Joshu Jeffrey Simmons is uh is awesome, but um >> yeah, >> the rest of the guys uh are not so good

21:05and uh you've got you've got May like as much as I do think May is awesome, the offensive line isn't great and May

21:14takes sacks when pressured and May likes to to big play hunt downfield. So he will he will take longer to throw than

21:23maybe he ought to at certain points. So, I I think he's a little bit matchup dependent right now. Um, but this is one

21:29of those matchups where you can you can see May really having another awesome game. He was a tournament winning quarterback last week. He's not the most

21:38stackable guy. Stefon Diggs is banged up. Um, he's he's questionable play, so we'll see if he even goes. So, it's kind

21:45of like we're back to Hunter Henry, I guess, as a stacking partner. Maybe naked Drake May. So, it's not the most

21:51like enticing DFS spot, but like writing this game up, Drake May is gonna have another good game here, I think.

21:59>> Yeah, it's be I'm curious to see if they'll be able to run the football at all in this game because right now

22:03they're second in passing EPA as an offense and they're dead last in rushing EPA. Some of that is the fumbles, like

22:09the actual turnovers in the run game.

22:11Um, and the tit nobody's like really throwing on the Titans because they don't have to like right.

22:16>> Uh, they face the 10th fewest pass attempts per game. when teams are throwing on them, they're 28th in completion rate allowed, 23rd in yards

22:22and passes. They suck at playing fast.

22:24They're not scared of a matchup in a sense, you're like, so I'm very curious to see like if it if the Patriots are

22:29just like, hey, well, we aren't a good running team. Maybe they just aren't a good running team against anyone either.

22:34Uh, so maybe they just swerve in like, hey, we're just going to build out the lead through May and then we'll see if

22:39we can try to establish something. Or if they look at this spot and they say, hey, the Titans, man, they haven't

22:44stopped anyone. you know, especially because we talked about it last week like it's not even that teams are running on the Titans. It's like these

22:50absolutely just like dormant running games like yeah, you know, like yeah, the the Cardinals like running out their like fourth, fifth, and their third,

22:58fourth, and fifth stringers against them and getting 180 yards, right? Like or Woody Marks going crazy against them. U so like I'm curious if they how they

23:06handle this spot because we've been kind of waiting to see like is like Trayvon gonna get involved? Is Raandre gonna get

23:13ramped up? like neither of these guys have done anything in the run game. And like you brought up their offensive line, their run games, the offensive

23:19line's not good. So, I'm very curious to see how this matchup just gets handled from that aspect. I mean, you're obviously not like going and playing any

23:25of those guys in DFS. I'm just just very curious to see if they try to use this matchup to like establish any establish

23:31a run for the first time.

23:33>> I think they might. I think they might.

23:35And that that could be kind of frustrating at points, but I really I think you know this stuff doesn't always matter, but I think in this case it

23:43definitely matters. Mike Verbel was fired by this team.

23:47>> Yeah.

23:47>> And Mike Verbel is the type of guy.

23:50>> We have a few of these spots this week, too, which are there's this a heavy narrative slate.

23:54>> Davis pointed out a really really fun one.

23:57>> The Rattler one.

23:58>> The Rattler one. Yeah. Um but yeah, I think I think Rabbel really cares. We also saw Stefon like he fully, you know,

24:05had Stefon Diggs going for the Bills one and and you know, we know Diggs was fired up about that. Like this part of

24:11the project here with Vable, I think, is is changing the culture and I think, you know, caring about beating this team is

24:18part of that. Um, getting his revenge.

24:22I don't think they're going to mess around here like this. They're not going to Packers it up and, you know, try to

24:27win by three and then, oh no, we threw an interception and lose, you know, and this is also this game has has a loss to

24:33the Raiders. They've lost to the Steelers.

24:36You know, they they can lose to anybody.

24:39You know, this is not like a great team.

24:42They still have holes. They're they're a >> building up. Yeah, they're they're getting there, but um I think that they're going to take this game

24:50seriously in a way that like maybe another team of a similar talent level might not. And you know, they're not This is not the Cardinals. They're not,

24:58you know, now now watch them go lose.

25:00But I I think, you know, they're going to be if the run game is like struggling, I I don't expect them to

25:04bang their head against the wall here.

25:06>> Yeah.

25:06>> I think they will pivot to what they know will work, which is May. Um, now I think the way this probably gets bad for

25:13them is that like Jeffrey Simmons just plays out of his mind and the Patriots offensive line is still it's not what it

25:20was last year when it was atrocious, but it is not good. Um, and and May does take sacks. So, that's that's probably

25:28the biggest concern that I have on the Patriots side. Um, and then if you combine that with them like wasting a

25:34couple drives with the run game, maybe this this game gets away from them. The problem for the Titans is that like how

25:40are they going to score points? I I looked up this week uh and I'll share >> this roster, man.

25:46>> Yeah. But you know what? I I think Can we talk about like the fact that Cam Ward's probably awful?

25:52>> Yeah. You gave you gave him you gave him a window last week. You said you were going to give him a window. I gave him

25:56the window.

25:56>> This is the test. You were like, "This is the test."

25:59>> And and you know what? He didn't he didn't deliver. So here's here's here's here's every quarter. So I went NFL

26:05fastar goes back to 1999. So this is 250 plays career and you can see at the top here we got Mahomes, we got Manning, we

26:14got Breeze, we got Allen, Brady Rogers, Jaden Daniels is up there. He's he's having an incredible start. Drake May's not too far down. Uh Brock Perie, you

26:23know, all these really efficient quarterbacks. And uh then we've got uh let me zoom back in. We've got Cam Ward

26:32down here at the bottom below Josh Rosen who is important for a reason we'll get to soon. And then way below this is Will

26:40Levice. It's like it's him. I don't even know who A Walter is. Ryan >> Andrew Walter. Andrew Walter.

26:47>> Andrew Walter. Okay.

26:48>> Yeah. For the Raiders.

26:50>> Okay. Chris Sims is up here, you know.

26:52We've got we've got Skel. Is it John Skelton? He stunk. Zack Metenberger.

26:57Zack Wilson's up here. Deshun Kaiser.

26:59Blaine Gabbert like the worst of the worst weren't as bad as Cam Ward has been. Now, it's still early. You know,

27:06he's he's a rookie. Some of these guys were putting up this type of efficiency as veterans. Uh he he will presumably

27:14get better over the course of his career. But like this is about as bad a start to a career as you could like have

27:19possibly worried, you know, was on the table. And I don't know. I mean, like it feels like people are still, oh, you

27:25know, Ward, he's he's in a bad situation. I think he stinks. I think Ward's bad. I'm ready to say it. No

27:33one's willing to say it. I think he's Most likely. Ward's bad. Are we Why can't we say that?

27:39>> Probably most likely. Yeah, I think it's Well, I think it's just fair to say it now. I'm willing to give some some

27:43runway here because, you know, we've seen some of these guys like be like so bad. Like remember like when Jordan Love

27:49filled in for uh Aaron Rogers and you're like, "Oh my god, what is this?" It's like so I mean and like the the

27:56infrastructure for the Titans obviously is kaput. It's terrible. They already fired their head coach. It's October uh 17th.

28:04>> But in terms of uh like I have like I have like a boom bust rate in like true media the filter. So like boom plays are

28:11uh plays that generate one EPA or more like a full point EPA or more. And he's dead blast in that. He's at 16.2% of his

28:19drop backs. The league average rate for guys that cor qualify for quarterback rating is 24%. And on the flip side of

28:25that, he has the highest bust rate, which is plays that lose one EPA or worse. So, he's dead last at that, too.

28:32So, he's just living bust u you know, bust the no boom all bust. Like, it's like it's real bad, man. And now you

28:40remove Calvin Ridley from the offense.

28:42>> Yeah.

28:42>> And like it's Van Jefferson who is like a one-on-one clasher right now. But like he's he has like no nuance

28:50as a receiver like >> and like you have like a split now between Chicka Conquo and and uh Gunner >> and Gunnar Helm there. You have a split

28:59back field now against the team that's awesome against the run. All that money the Patriots spent on the defensive front seven is like playing out on

29:08>> Milton Williams has been awesome.

29:10>> Splain has been not great in pass coverage but good against the Red. You got him to stop the run though. Uh like

29:15they've been they've been incredible against the run. They haven't faced like the greatest schedule, but like we saw them like against the Bills two weeks

29:21ago, nuke them. So, I actually believe like >> Landry might be out, but he's he's been a pass. He's been kind of whatever

29:27against the run. So, he's that's not a huge loss.

29:29>> I really can't see the Titans running the football on him because like that maybe is like what you're hoping for

29:34like Cam Ward. So like last year when Caleb Williams when like Waldron got fired and all those guys got fired and

29:39like Thomas Brown took over there was like an immediate bump but there was like talented players involved like where are the where are the talented

29:48players for like to help out like to facilitate anything here?

29:52>> I I don't it's really tough.

29:54>> There's like been some stuff about like the trade you know like trade candidates and people have brought up Titans. I'm

29:59like what why would the Titans be trading away anyone? like the Titans need people coming in. They don't have anything. Um so they probably should

30:09trade Jeffrey Simmons though and uh and yeah, >> I don't know, figure out figure out something on the offensive line. They

30:15need they need offensive help badly.

30:17>> Um the reason that Josh Rosen is relevant is that the last time we saw Mike McCoy calling plays for an offense,

30:28it was for Josh Rosen.

30:30>> Incredible. and now the biggest first round bus like ever and or at least you know in the last 15 years and uh now we

30:40get him he's not actually calling plays uh their quarterback co not the OC so they had a head coach who was an

30:47offensive head coach and an OC and who called plays the quarterback coach that's how you know things are going good and uh so he's still calling plays

30:56but um and the OC is still the OC I think Mike McCoy like he was some kind of like senior offensive assistant and

31:01basically like, hey, you've coached before, so you be the head coach.

31:05Everyone else can stay doing their their same stuff. So, don't have to like overload these these guys who, you know, haven't been head coaches before and

31:12it's a lot to take on. So, it's probably smart enough like it makes sense to bring to have if you're going to fire

31:18Callahan, you might as well hand it to McCoy because he wasn't in charge of the offense or whatever. But, ah, it's this

31:25is a dumpster fire, man. I mean, >> it is. It's it's a lost year for the a rookie quarterback. Like it's a it's

31:31already like a punt year and he might he might he might be like put in a situation where like you can't

31:37recover from this because you develop bad habits. You like >> So I've been looking into the quarterback class a little bit and it's

31:44not very good. I don't think so this isn't I don't think this will be a Josh Rosen situation.

31:49>> Yeah. I I it's too early to say for sure like someone could emerge but it doesn't look promising. So, I don't think they

31:57like take a guy, you know, number one.

31:59Maybe.

31:59>> Oh, no. They'll like make a hire that's like, >> you know, like like the Bears did.

32:04They're going to try to do like something like that this offseason. You would believe, right? Like >> you would say they're going to try to

32:10hire an offensive quarterback, you know, uh, facilitator to try to try to max out this rookie contract. But you already wasted a whole year. They're like,

32:20>> here here's my advice to Josh Grisard.

32:22Don't do it. Ah, >> don't do it.

32:25>> Don't do it.

32:27>> Stay. Wait another year. You got Baker, you'll be good again 2026. See what's available in 2027. Don't do it.

32:34>> Yeah. Do the Ben Johnson approach. Just wait until you get all the money.

32:37>> Wait it out. I'm skipping this. This one. This is a This is a pass for me.

32:40I'm not I'm not going Don't Don't be the guy who goes to try to save Cam Ward as your your head your I got a job. I got a

32:47chance to coach in the NFL. I was a head coach in the NFL. How'd it go? Well, I picked Cam Ward. Didn't go great.

32:56Um, >> I did say now I've I've, you know, talked a lot of crap >> the efficiency has been so bad that by

33:05sheer variance alone, things should turn in Cam Ward's favor. It's possible that he does. It's very likely that, you know, at some point this season he has a

33:14good game, maybe even a really good game, you know, and it looks like I I'm I'm a total fool. I I I I anticipate

33:22that he will make this look like a you know an overly bearish take at some point but big picture like long term I

33:30think like at this point I think they would be lucky if he turns into what Spencer Rattler is doing. Uh different

33:36stylistically but like if you could get that kind of efficiency out of Ward that would be like a big win at this point.

33:41Um I'm I'm pretty out.

33:45Uh, Eagles Vikings.

33:49The Eagles have been passing over the last couple weeks. It has not gone well, though. What What are your thoughts on

33:55the Eagles?

33:56>> Yeah, I mean, just it's it's very clear when you watch the Eagles, like this is the team just going through an identity

34:01crisis. Like, they're trying to find out what their actual identity is. I mean, you know, through through the first four games, they were below pass rate

34:08expectations like you said, and then, you know, week six, they were 5% over last week, uh, or they were 5% over last

34:15week, 19% the week before the Broncos game. Um, and that's like really kind of reduced Saquon Barkley's touches. This would be a spot to maybe flip back, but

34:23I don't know. I couldn't tell you what they're planning right now. Landon Dickerson is coming back. It's a very intriguing though because as bad as it's

34:31gone like you can kind of look at some of the stuff and say like it's actually been okay for us as like a fantas as

34:36fantasy gamers. I mean definitely people that that took say AJ Brown in the second third round and took Saquon the first round will disagree but like

34:43Jaylen Herz is still scoring fantasy points every week. Uh so like you still feel like you don't feel great about the

34:48matchic or what the Eagles are doing but like he keeps scoring points and like it's like well what are they going to do

34:54man? Just what's the game plan this week? Kevin Patulo. None of us should even know who Kevin Patulo is. And it's

34:59a bummer that like like everyone hates him. Like the only thing he's done is get Gallas Gallas got targets, but like

35:06cool.

35:08>> It does suck, man. You're like, "Hey, I've got to take over as OC." Cool. Uh a month later, everyone hates your guts.

35:14>> Yeah, because nobody knew who he was and now everyone knows him for the worst reasons.

35:18>> Yeah, I mean it is bad, man. Like they I don't think I included the chart in here. Let me pull it up. like they they

35:24are like not doing any of the stuff that you're supposed to do.

35:27>> Um >> none of the stuff >> none of the stuff. They like motion and play action. Like they they they rank

35:35>> uh 29th in play action per drop back.

35:38They're 28th in motion rate. Like what are you doing? Isn't this isn't this supposed to be built around like say especially the play action stuff?

35:47>> And they haven'ticition on their play action drops either.

35:49>> Yeah, it's cuz they're just exclusive shotgun team. And we saw this with Kyler being out >> number one.

35:54>> We saw it with Kyler being out last week. Like when you just get a quarterback and play under center, what

35:57does it unlock? Like you can do more of that stuff. Like the stuff that's actual cheat code. So there's a little chicken

36:04and egg stuff, you know, with the way Jaylen Herz does play. But like Kellen Moore incorporated, you know, a good amount of that stuff and was able to

36:11work around it. Like there there still is an answer. Like it can't be all or nothing basically. You know what I mean?

36:16>> Yeah. But this week they get the Vikings who are number one in blitz rate. Herz has been uh the most blitz quarterback.

36:24Hasn't been great against the blitz.

36:25Vikings are the most efficient blitzing team. Uh when >> he's even worse, which is all Brian Flores does.

36:34>> Not great. So now you've got uh look, here's here's the thing I'm wondering is do the Eagles just go, you know what?

36:45Who needs the passing game? We're going to have We're going to get Saquon Bart like you. You talk about the Patriots

36:51might try to get their run game going maybe.

36:54>> I feel like the Eagles have to do that here. Have to. They're going against a Vikings team that that's that's how you

37:00play them because they're not great against the run. They're 23rd in DVOA, 25th in EPA, 19th in success rate.

37:07>> Teams are averaging a 54% pass rate against them, which is, you know, kind of where the Eagles would like to be,

37:12but they've had to have to pass more recently. They have a minus 5% Vikings opponents have a minus 5% POE. They're

37:20shifting in POE 4% to the run from from their average. So this is like this profiling is a legitimate runf funnel.

37:27>> Uh the the Bears had a 68% pass rate uh against um the Vikings in week one. Then we've seen 40% by the Falcons, 61% by

37:37the Bengals where Bengals went minus 9% proe. That's not what the Bengals do against the Vikings. And then uh Steelers are

37:45>> 48. They were like they after after Jake Jake Browning gave them 28 points, they were like, "Well, maybe we just don't

37:51have this guy throwing."

37:54>> That's right. That's right. Yeah. And uh the Browns last week had a 52% pass rate minus 11% pass rate over expected. Like

38:01there's there's a a way you play this Vikings defense and it's the way the Eagles want to get back to playing. I

38:07think we see a ton of Barkley here. He hasn't been efficient this season, but like I don't know if he's got any of the

38:142024 juice left. This would be the spot to show it, right?

38:18>> I still think he looked fine like from a health stance. Like the opening two carries the last week's game, you know,

38:22he goes for what 18 and 14 and you're like, "All right, it's finally moving downhill and they can just get away from

38:27the run." Um both guards played terrible in that game the rest of the way too. I think he had 10 carries for 27 yards

38:33after that. Dickerson is back. They asked Brian Flores about this the buy like well what did you do to fix the run

38:39game? He's like well we watched a lot of film. He's like there's really nothing to fix except for we need to tackle

38:43better and get off blocks better. It's like well okay like sure he basically was just like we need to play better. Like there's like I

38:52I can't fix anything. Like these guys need to do better.

38:55>> I respect it man. You you've got like the best pass defense in the league.

38:58like, hey, could you guys tackle somebody in the run game and then we have the best defense >> cuz it's >> it seems fair.

39:03>> Before the buy, they allow 128 total yards to quench on Judkins and he had a 40-yard touchdown call back in that

39:11game.

39:11>> And then the week before that in London, Kenneth Gainwell goes for 134 total yards and two touchdowns. Like if this

39:18is not the spot for Saquon, I don't know like if we're going to have other ones.

39:23like it feels >> if Saquin doesn't go off here. I'm pulling up his efficiency and I'm I'm doing the Cam Ward. I'm going to do a

39:30whole diet tribe about how he's watching. No, I'm kidding. But he's this is I mean this is this is where >> doesn't this look so obvious in

39:37retrospect like oh yeah, of course Barkley went went nuts here. This was the breakout game.

39:41>> He was my uh show with Hilo. We do a segment called Hidden Hammers and it's like hammers of the slate and I was like

39:48my guy is Seaquan. He's actually hiding in plain sight, but like you know he's not going to be played because of he's

39:54been one he's been bad. Two he we it's going to be a massively chalky week for Quinn John Judkins. Gamers are still

40:01going to get the Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs in good spots.

40:04>> Uh yeah, Bree Hall's popping like every optimal. Uh so like man, I'm like this is a spot like it's the matchup is here.

40:11He's going to be lowowned. Like we got to swing, right? We have to >> we got to swing. I think we got to

40:16swing. We at least got to get in the batters box here. Like we are we might strike out, but like we got like

40:23everything is here. Lowowned matchups on the board. It's indoor game.

40:28Like it it's it's an early game too.

40:30Like all the these the popular games like are on the late slate. So it's like you have these this guy it's everything

40:36sets up to where you'd want to make this swing. Will it work out? I don't know.

40:40But I feel like it's a swing we have to make.

40:42>> I agree. The other thing is that the Eagles are coming off a loss to the Giants, right? Like the the vibes are

40:49bad, but you look at, you know, and then you also have WZ had played has played pretty well and the Eagles defense

40:58hasn't been that great. Um, >> including against Jackson Dart.

41:02>> JJ McCarthy was like, I don't know what's going to happen, >> right?

41:07But he's still Carson Wentz fundamentally. And you have the Eagles didn't have Jaylen Carter against the Giants and then they lost Quinon

41:15Mitchell during the game.

41:16>> Yep.

41:17>> Um and they're expected to Carter's been practicing in full and then Mitchell got in a full practice on Thursday. We'll

41:24see what he does today. It's a hamstring injury so like it's like a little bit you know touchandgo but if he gets in

41:29another full practice like he he's good.

41:31So that's that's a big deal. Quinnon Mitchell is good and keeps Adori Jackson off the field who as soon as he was on

41:39the field against the Giants they were like you >> you know and and he like he's literally been benched he stinks. So keeping him

41:45off the field and Ringo's terrible like when they asked Vicio on uh I think it was Tuesday's like presser they were

41:52like well if Mitchell can't play like who's up is it going to be a Dory or is it going to be Ringo? He just kind of

41:58like internalized himself like processing. It's like >> guess it's gonna be a Dory like he's like uh because Ringo's been terrible

42:06too like it been awful. So like I mean I it's it's one of these things too where like you because they don't want to move

42:12to Jeene but like I feel like they have to like I feel like they eventually have to >> the outside.

42:17>> Yeah.

42:17>> Yeah. Yeah.

42:20>> No, I mean I think um Yeah. Who's Yeah. Ringo has been bad.

42:26So, so yeah, I mean it's it's not >> And the dude they traded for from the Raiders hasn't really played uh is I

42:31forget his name. Um he played it like week is it I can't right before the season they traded for him.

42:38>> I can't remember who it was. I lost. I'm not going to try to pull it up off the top of my head.

42:43>> Bennett.

42:44>> Yeah. Oh, he he's on IR.

42:46>> Yeah, he's hurt. Yeah.

42:47>> Yeah. Um >> yeah. So I mean if Mitchell Mitchell and Carter being back and Wentz being Wentz like this is all again in kind of like

42:58oh yeah in retrospect the Eagles defense getting two key pieces back going against Carson Wentz and having a

43:08obvious rushing funnel type of matchup with Saquon Barkley needing to get going and then being pushed off of what they normally want to do for two weeks and

43:17losing both games. They come in here and they get back to Eagles football and they win going away with good defense

43:23and running the ball. Like I I just can see it. I mean, I don't want to completely count the Vikings out here. I

43:28think that, you know, the script that I laid out is not like set in stone, but there's a way where it's like, yeah,

43:33tournament winning type of performance from Barkley and he's helped actually by the defense getting him the ball back and and then being able to front run.

43:40So, um, yeah, going it requires going against what we've seen over the last couple weeks, but you know, they they had some injuries against the Giants and

43:50they they lost to the Broncos. There's no shame in that. Broncos have an awesome defense and >> and they were up 17 to be fair. Like we

43:57we joke about like we looked at that game plan afterwards and you like everyone was dunking on it but like they

44:02were up 17 nothing and like it was working like the actual it it wasn't like pretty but like if if he if Herz

44:08hits that one throw to AJ Brown like they're up 24 nothing at that point and like the door might be closed. Um, but

44:15like it was kind of working like what they were doing structurally against the Broncos was working in the and I'll be

44:20honest on Thursday night they were fine too until the second half and then it was a disaster.

44:26>> Yeah.

44:27>> I mean that interception was was gut-wrenching. It >> Yeah, I I did I mean I'll be honest. I was rooting for the Giants there. They

44:35the vibes are quite good. I enjoy I enjoy the way the Giants are playing football right now. Um, and I normally

44:41root against uh the Eagles because I find them boring, but um, >> yeah, >> but maybe not this week. On the Vikings

44:47side, what what jumps out?

44:49>> Well, you talked about Jaylen Carter being back. I think that's pretty massive uh, for like what the Vikings want to do in terms of like, you know,

44:55establishing Jordan Mason. With Carter on the field, they're only allowing 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, 0.93 yards before contact on those running

45:04back runs. remember he he left week one before the actual play like after the kickoff got rejected in week one. So

45:12when he's played like he's been good and they've stopped the run. To me it's kind of like the only guy like I can make a

45:18real case for is just Justin Jefferson, right? Like especially in context of the slate with the removal of so many good

45:24front end receivers. That's only if Wentz plays too by the way. Caveat if Wentz plays just because they have a 67%

45:31pass rate with Wentz in the game. small sample with JJ McCarthy, but it was only 56.8%. And that's what they told us all

45:38offseason. The signal was, right? Like they spent a lot of money on offensive lineman. They trade for Jordan Mason.

45:44They extend A D A D A D A D A D A D A D A D A D A Darren Jones. They extend Josh

45:46Oliver. Like they were like, we want to play power football and insulate our young quarterback. And that's kind of all gotten a little bit thrown by the

45:54wayside. So, I don't think we want to see McCarthy here in this game. I don't think that they do either, to be honest.

45:59>> They don't. I mean, they clearly don't.

46:01like they just came off the by-week like he's they're nursing it.

46:05>> I I feel like that too. But so Jefferson double digit targets in the past two games. Probably would have had that

46:11against the Bengals game if like they even had the throw in that game. But you know I said Jake Browning gave them four

46:17touchdowns. So it's like whatever. And that was in like in like spots where like Steelers, Browns, like not like clear spots. If you would watch last

46:24night's game you would have said yeah it's obvious spot for Justin Jefferson.

46:27But, um, he's been good. 32% of the targets, you know, with with Wentz. He's running. The thing about it, too, is

46:34like, so when the first two weeks happened, I was like, man, I don't like what's happening here with the Justin Jefferson's offense. He was only running

46:4127 routes per game those first two because of what we talked about. And he's at 40 routes per game with Carson

46:46Wentz. So, Quinton Mitchell being up does dampen it a little bit, but I think Justin Jefferson can win though against anyone. Like so I'm not

46:56>> It's also more that like it's not Yeah, it's just like it's nice when you have a guy going against >> We would have liked the Dory Jackson to

47:02be playing.

47:02>> Yeah, Dory Jackson. Yeah, that's that's what that's what it is. It's like, hey, they really can't cover. Um now they can

47:10cover, but you still have Justin Jefferson who can who can uncover against good corners. Um but yeah, I mean I think you do have like it it is a

47:20bit of a weird matchup because you mentioned that like you know one of the games where uh I was pointing out how runheavy

47:28people have been against the Vikings.

47:29One of them was the the Bengals giving up as you pointed out. Um but you do have the last two games uh Gainwell and

47:38Judkins going off. Um you had Bejon was just like they could not stop Bejan in that game. Nobody's been able to.

47:45>> Nobody's been able to. But I mean, they they had a 40% pass rate. They just like you they had a 40 they ran 60% of the

47:53time and won, you know. Um >> Yeah, that was that gross Sunday night game.

47:58>> Yeah. Uh that that was the one where McCarthy just tanked and we may not see him for a few more weeks because of

48:04that. Um >> yeah, we we don't we're not tend to be talking about the the Bejian, but uh Bejian's gone over 100 total yards in 15

48:12of his past 17 games. And one of those he had 98.

48:17>> That you got to set the set it to 95.

48:19You know, you got to do the wonder pick 95.

48:23>> Just Van's just absolutely going crazy right now.

48:27>> Um the thing though, right, is like that's one way the game could play out is the runheavy stuff. But the other the

48:34problem with this matchup and why Saquon is I think fragile is that you have Jaylen Herz who's struggling an offense that can't really figure it out

48:43and they're going against the best passing defense in the NFL by EPA per drop back. That could be bad. So it this

48:51you know there's a few different ways this game can can play out. I think the Vikings um I believe are the Vikings

48:57favored here.

48:58>> Uh no it's like it's tight though. It's like one and a halfight. One and a half and half.

49:03>> Yeah. So, yeah, it's a really tight game. Um >> we we can talk ourselves into the Eagles >> uh front running, but that's that's

49:12>> No, it's the same stuff, right? Yeah, it's the same stuff with the Eagles where we've been at. Like, they have to

49:15at least put one whole game together for us to like really believe. Um Yeah. I mean, Herz Herz did have, I think, is a

49:23standout because what makes Herz, I think, kind of interesting on this slate is that he's also gonna not be popular because of Jaden Daniels, Mahomes, and

49:31Prescott.

49:32>> And he I mean, you go back to the Broncos game though, he had 20 passing points against the Broncos. He only had

49:38three rushing yards in that game. No tush push, nothing make inflating his production. So like you know the the the Vikings have faced like not a pretty

49:48great rogues gallery of quarterbacks so far. You know Caleb Penn, Jake Browning, Aaron Rogers, Dylan Gabriel.

49:54>> It's a good point.

49:55>> I think there's a case to be made I I think for Herz to have tournament exposure at largefield because like well

50:01one you know you get the the the the tush push BS anyways as an out but those 20 fantasy points against the Broncos

50:07are on his resume. Like so we know it's like they they have the talent. It's just a bunch of like they just don't

50:14have an identity.

50:15>> Right. Right.

50:18Let's go to the Saints at Bears. Um this was the game we were teasing. Do you want to set this up? The uh the the

50:24ultimate revenge game.

50:26>> Uh yeah. Yeah. Uh where you know cuz uh Caleb Williams is who replaced Rattler in Oklahoma.

50:32>> Yeah.

50:33>> So like you know Davis Davis uh said is like Caleb left his is living Rattler's dream. I was like, I don't know if this

50:39was his dream, but like I get it.

50:42>> Davis Davis on our podcast said he ruined Spencer Rattler's life. I was like, he's a starting quarterback in the NFL. Like, how how could you say his

50:51life is ruined?

50:54Take your life.

50:56>> Yeah. Hilarious. And then you have like the Dennis Allen too thing too. Like the some of the Saints guys been talking

51:00about Oh, that's right.

51:01>> Uh I'm excited about that.

51:03>> Revenge for the Saints against Allen.

51:05I'm excited about this game if we don't get like the goofy weather stuff. Roth has this one and the Browns game as like

51:10kind of games to monitor. Yeah. Uh I already offered too. I said if you guys want me to throw a football in my

51:15backyard uh to to see how cuz I also am a lefty. So me Tua and Dylan Gabriel like >> Yeah.

51:24>> I don't have the same arm strength as those guys. But >> you don't have Dylan Gabriel arm strength.

51:28>> I don't know how far off I am though either.

51:30>> Yeah. You think you might have it.

51:32>> Don't sell yourself short. But this game in general because like neither of these defenses are very good and that's always

51:38fun. Uh so the Saints obviously they're 27th in points allowed per drive.

51:43They've given up a bunch of points on the road too in their road games. And the Bears are hilarious like their

51:48defensive stuff. So they lead the NFL in takeaways per drive. 21 and point4% of opponent drives. They get takeaway. But when they don't get a takeaway, they're

51:5731st in scoring rate odd per drive. So they either get a turnover or the other team scores. like it's like it's like

52:03what happens like with the with them and RER we talked about him last week like he hasn't been playing bad he's been

52:09largely like a bus driver but like he's not making mistakes. Um he's running a little bit but the only thing that's

52:14hurt him for fantasy is he has one or fewer passing touchdowns in every game but one well he's facing a team that is

52:20allowing the highest touchdown rate in the NFL. So like I kind of can see where this game like you can like there are a

52:26lot of stacking avenues on the cheap end of this game that are fun. Um, I I won't take everything, but like I'm I'm at

52:32least intrigued by >> I'm just like I'm signed because on our DFS pod, we were basically like everyone was sort of talking themselves into

52:41Saints and and I kind of got there by the end of the pod and now you're you're getting me even more thinking about I

52:49don't want to do it. But I think it's smart.

52:51>> That's fair. That is fair.

52:52>> I think it's smart though.

52:54the uh So, yeah, I mean the the the numbers I have here back up exactly what you're saying.

53:00>> They're a large field stack if you're doing it.

53:03>> Yeah, but it's cheap.

53:05>> No, that's what I said. That's I mean, yeah, cuz if you're doing >> I do like medium field stuff. I think

53:08it's viable like 3,000 5,000 fields.

53:12>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I just wouldn't do like they're not like who you would earmark for like to do small field like

53:17on.

53:17>> They're not high confidence. Yeah, you're right. Um but yeah, the the Bears are 23rd in EPA laper dropbacks. Not good, but they're they're second worst

53:28in dropback success rate. So, you know, they're getting the big the EPA is not so bad because they're getting big >> on on their side. Yeah. Turnovers. Um

53:37but they're they're dead last in quick pressure rate. They're 28th in pressure rate. Really poor pass rush. Um and then you also have them playing a ton of man

53:47coverage. Uh they have uh uh where's their man? They even higher man coverage rate than than the Patriots who the the

53:56Saints just faced last week. And one of the things I noted last week and is even more true here is that this kind of

54:05focuses targets in to the guys we care about. Shahed and Olav both have a 35% targets per hour run against man. Only

54:12Tedro McMillan, Roma, Pukanakua and Aman Ross St. Brown have a higher targets per hour run against man this year. We also

54:18have Joan Johnson getting a high targets prop run against man over the course of the season, but if you look at his stuff

54:22recently, >> yeah, >> it's he's he's way down and and his stuff um is also less interesting. Like the other angle about this game that I

54:32like is that the Bears aren't good on play action either. And you've got uh the Saints using play action at a decent

54:39rate. The Bears are third worst at defending play action this season. If you look at the play action stuff, that's good for Rasheed Shahed and Chris

54:49Olive. And it's one of the few spots because Olave's usage has been a little bit more shallow this year, but he's

54:54actually Yeah. looked good.

54:56>> Yeah. And and on the play action stuff, he's getting targeted downfield. He has an 11.2 AOT against man coverage and

55:0315.1 AOT against play action. So there is some like legit upside for a lav with the potential, you know, we're going to

55:11see some man coverage and potential for a lot of play action here. Uh Rashijah has also been spiking on play action. He

55:17has a 24% targets per run at 4.32 yards per out run. Obviously gets used deep there as well. Johnson has a 2.7 AOT.

55:26He's a checkown on play action. Um he's al and his stuff's fallen off recently.

55:30He he was at just a 4% targets per out run last week.

55:34>> 0.63 63 yards per hour run, which is uh basically in line with where he was in week five. So, I think this is like

55:40becoming a more condensed offense and one that this matchup will potentially condense even further from baseline and one where I think both guys can have

55:50pretty good games. So, I like I've been thinking about it more as like Olive and Shahid as oneoffs, but I like both the

55:56Saints receivers and the quarterbacks for pretty cheap and I like this game environment. So, I think I think Saints doubles are in play.

56:03>> Yeah. Yeah. Is the only thing you got?

56:04And then the other side look I said the other side looks great too. I wrote this up as a potential larger field kind of

56:10be aggressive game. I wish DJ Moore was going to miss. I did try to check he because he practiced yesterday um at

56:16limited so I was trying to see if he was backup today.

56:18>> He'll he'll be okay I think.

56:20>> Yeah I think so because >> Jeff Mohler said he reading the tea leaves he thinks it was testicular torsion.

56:29>> That doesn't sound great.

56:31>> Doesn't sound great. Yeah, but he's back at practice. So, >> but we love what the Bears did out of their buy like was, you know, anytime we

56:37have these first time head coaches or these offensive driven head coaches, you know, it's like, all right, what did they do with that week off? Like what

56:43what what did they figure out? Like what did they calibrate? And the Bears did make some changes like there were some

56:48adjustments.

56:49>> Yeah. High highest route participation of the year for all Zakius. Ben Johnson.

56:53>> Well, that's the change we did not want unfortunately.

56:56>> No.

56:57>> Uh but they did use pre- snap motion. uh season high 64% of the time, highest play action rate in a game. Now, you

57:04know, hopefully this wasn't just opponent driven. It was the the play against Commanders cuz like we talked about this with Drake May last week

57:10because Josh McDaniels had ramped these things up. Is that like this is how you beat the Saints, man. I mean, they're

57:17alling uh 8.7 yards for passive on play action passes, that's 24th. 8% touchdown rate is 20th. Um pre- snap motion plays,

57:248.8 yards for pass is 29th. uh and the league highest uh 11.3% touchdown rate on those as well. They've allowed multiple passing touchdowns um in all

57:34six games this season. Uh they're 30th in passing points allowed. Also, they don't get any pressure which is like the Caleb Bugaboo, right? Like

57:41>> can they clean?

57:43>> They can get pressure. It just takes forever. So Drake May last week had a 49% pressure rate. Saints had a 49%

57:52pressure rate against May >> cuz he wants to go down field. Okay, >> cuz he wants to get on field against

57:56pressure. He completed six of 10 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns. He also scrambled four times for 30 yards.

58:05So, this is fake pressure.

58:07>> And this that's exactly what you want.

58:09You want you want Caleb Williams being able to hang back, take his sweet time. He he takes a long time to get the

58:16ball out, >> but if if you give him that time, he will punish you. Like I I think this is a really fun spot for Caleb Williams.

58:25And if I'm playing Saints receivers, I think I'm more excited to play Caleb.

58:29And then the guy who I was surprised, I've looked at some projections. Roma Dunce not popping. And he's so the uh

58:36the Saints play a bunch of zone and he's really good against man. So, you know, in that sense, the matchup's not like

58:43perfect, but you look at um you look at when Caleb has a bunch of time to throw.

58:49So throws of 2.5 plus seconds or longer.

58:53Uh Roma Dunay has been the primary weapon with a 24% target per run. He has an 18 AOT. Um but he's had a just a 44%

59:02catch rate. Uh and only 1.84 yards per route run. So a lot of meat left on the bone, but that is the primary target

59:11when Caleb Williams has time to throw.

59:12Like it's it's it's Roma Dunes. Deep shots are a big part of what he's doing.

59:17So, I think this is this could be a a big-time spike week spot for for Odun.

59:22Uh, I also like, you know, and Shahed as well as as potential spike week spots for them. But I feel like the the thing

59:29I'm most confident in, I think, is that Caleb Williams basically comes in and is like, "Hey, can you give me that game? I

59:36want the May game plan. That looked cool. Let me do some of that stuff." And if you don't give him the game plan,

59:40he'll still do it. He'll still hold the ball. So, uh, I think I think we're getting deep shots from from Caleb

59:46Williams, and I think they're we're gonna we're gonna see some connect this week. I I wish, man, do I do I ever wish

59:52that Zakius was out of the picture for this game and we had Burden because he would be so fun here.

59:57>> Oh, yeah. I actually was wouldn't be more excited if it was going to be filling in for more.

60:02>> Oh, yeah. Me, too.

60:03>> Yeah. Because, you know, you know, my my take on Burden is that he's be he shouldn't be used as a slot receiver. He

60:10should be used as a vertical receiver.

60:11Yeah.

60:12>> Like uh and I was like, man, if if Zakius just being the slot Zakius, he can just go do those things and play

60:20some more. I was like, oh, Burden would be cook this be awesome. But unfortunately, >> if more were to miss, I would be very

60:25excited about Burden here.

60:26>> Yeah, I think a lot of people would be.

60:27I am very excited about a doomsday like you said. Uh well, Caleb is still doing the Caleb thing of uh he's number one in

60:33the NFL in an accurate throw rate. He's he has the worst differential and expected completion rate, you know, completion rate versus expected. And

60:41that's directly impacted Roma Dunes over the past three games. 25% of his targets have been inaccurate targets. That's kind of where we've seen this kind of

60:49slow down from a little bit, but he's still getting all the usage we like.

60:52He's led the Bears and targets uh in four or five games this year. He still has a monopoly on all of the uh high

60:59value touches. He's got uh he leads the Bears in red zone targets 30%. He has 56% of the end zone targets. had one

61:06that didn't count last week, the touchdown that came back. On another call, like the illegal motion um that didn't impact the play. And while he

61:15does have like the the wide splits versus man and zone, I don't know if it matters here in this matchup regardless

61:21because the Saints have just been giving up to everyone. I mean, they're they're 30th in points allowed to wide receiver one targets and they've allowed a 10%

61:29touchdown rate to those targets. So, like I don't know if it really matters.

61:33We need a filter that just exempts like the Cowboys and the Raiders and the Saints.

61:40>> Well, I don't care.

61:41>> It's funny because offenses are so bad this year again like in totality like it's still just trending like not great.

61:48But we do have like four or five like almost historically bad defenses like and like there's some of these have like

61:55no hopes of turning it around. I don't know like Trayvon Diggs is even playing this week. Like, >> yep, it's it's you know,

62:01>> some of these teams like Miami, at least they play in Cleveland. Like, maybe playing the Browns in a in a downpour

62:07will help the Miami defense.

62:10>> That's their only chance.

62:13>> We play in a hurricane against Dylan Gabriel, maybe we got a shot, but I don't know.

62:20>> Oh, man. Yeah. I mean, that's we we talked about this with McMillan, and he he actually didn't have like a huge

62:25yardage game, but he scored twice.

62:27>> Yeah. Um, but it's like, hey, you know, the zone stuff's cool, but also like some of these defenses just suck and the

62:34Saints suck. They're they're not a good defense at all. And they can't get pressure like they, you know, when do I

62:41want to play Caleb Williams? When cuz he's gonna he's going to have a long time to throw regardless. So, it's when

62:48that doesn't hurt him and that's not going to hurt him here. So, I'm I'm pretty into Caleb Williams. Um, I'm probably gonna force a Caleb Williams

62:55stack in I usually play like six lineups. I think I'm gonna force a Caleb Williams stack in one of them.

63:02>> Yeah. Yeah, he's one of my QBs. You know, I always I always do I have a very tight quarterback pool and he's he's

63:07he's one of one of them this week. So, >> nice. Anything >> I like the DeAndre Swift I noted like is

63:14is an RB2 in um you know, season long stuff. I don't know that I'll end up getting to him in DFS and then he he

63:19popped up limited yesterday. Um, do you have a read on on him?

63:25>> Seems like he's gonna be okay. Like it was more Russ. I like I haven't seen Friday practice for the Bears. I tried

63:30to pull because I was looking at DJ Moore. Um, they did bench out of the by Braxton Jones, their left tackle for

63:36Theo Beneday and Jones or Swift had a 100% success rate running behind the left off the left side. And obviously it's not going to be 100%, you know,

63:45moving forward. definitely run. No one's ever 100% in the run game, but it looked like, like I said, Ben Johnson did some

63:50calibration that seemed to at least work against a team that up until Monday night, Washington had been awesome against the run.

63:57>> Like they had been great. They were actually number one even ahead of the Browns and yards allowed before contact on running back runs coming into Monday

64:04night. And like they got diced like by DeAndre Swift, right? It was it was it was the most rushing yards he's had in a

64:10game since he faced Washington last year like in week eight.

64:14>> Swift looked good, too. like he was.

64:16>> Well, he does this to us though. That's why I at least want to like we always get roped back in by him. I want to see

64:21more.

64:22>> The one thing I I noted with Swift, he has a 44% success rate uh in the NFL NextGen stuff, which is running back 15

64:28and the line is kind of like you want to be at 40% or above and he's typically been at like 35% or 33%. Like he sucked

64:36in success, right? Very boom bust.

64:38>> This is like why Detroit gave up on him, you know? he him being and I noted before that this was before the

64:45commanders game he had a pretty solid success rate. I think that the Bears are are probably much happier with Swift than you know we would anticipate. Now

64:53that's easier enough to say after he kind of sealed the game for him last week but I did write it. It's in writing

64:57last you know before the game. I think I think that he actually has been better this year. Like he's he's been better in

65:03a real life we can lean on our running back when we want to run the ball kind of way which is pretty important. Um, we

65:09always like the boom bust guys because they're fun, but like >> teams get super frustrated with the Kenneth Walkers of the world with with

65:15Bruce Hall. They get frustrated.

65:17>> Yeah. And they they play like grinders and it's like get Why are you playing Brillin Allen, man? It's like because

65:23they think he's going to have a higher success rate basically. Um, so Swift Swift success rate is pretty important.

65:29If he's healthy, I think he's I I don't think I get to him, but like, you know, it's probably like a 150 set, which I

65:36don't play. Uh, you know, I could I could see him being involved. He he seems like an okay play to me. Um, as

65:41long as the health isn't a concern.

65:43>> He's a home running back. He's a home favored running back with a with a team total of 26. Like, right. Like it's just

65:51an objectively blind spot to have faith in like a running back like to at least be pro like >> and catch. Yes.

65:59>> And I I like this game environment. This is this is uh one of the game environments that I think I'm going to

66:05be targeting when I'm not targeting the game environment, which we'll get to.

66:09>> Yeah. I mean, it's one of these early starts. You you're trying to find these these early start guys, so you know how

66:13you have to adjust to some of the chalk that will be on the late slate.

66:18>> 100%. All right, Dolphins at Browns. Um this is the potential Weather Bowl, although it doesn't look like it might be too too bad. Um what jumps out to you

66:29in this game? Yeah, I mean this would be an interesting match. I think if it was if there's nothing we have to deal with,

66:34we might not have to. Like it's we've been here before with weather stuff.

66:37Like I try not to get too crazy about it. When Roth usually says stuff about it though, I kind of like my ears perk

66:42up a little bit because he's just so good at what he does.

66:44>> He's pretty good.

66:45>> I mean he's his baseball is amazing.

66:48Like when he's like he'll like 12 hours like that game's getting postponed. I'm like uh but like we have this historically

66:56bad Dolphins defense. Uh they have a lot of opponents to score on 60% of their possessions so far. It's the highest

67:01rate through six weeks of any team uh in the 2000s. They are 31st in EPA as a pass defense. Only the Cowboys are

67:10worse. They're 32nd in rush defense.

67:12Like it's what do you want to do against these guys? What do you want to do? And then we have this Browns team that, you

67:18know, hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since uh the Jamus Mile High game last year. It's like I think it's

67:24close to a record. So, it's it's interesting. I think there's some great dynamics of this game. I wish that we had some like cleaner weather because I

67:32think there's some paths for like optimism even on the Dolphins passing side, but I just don't know if the weather's going to hold up. So, the

67:38Browns are we know that they have like a great pass rush to play a lot of man coverage, right? But these these

67:45quarterbacks that are quick processors against them and I don't know if I would label I don't know if I want to label

67:50two of them a quick processor versus like the scheme is just generated on you throw the ball quickly. like we don't

67:55deal with it. But the Browns and they s you saw this happen with Aaron Rogers last week against them too. We saw it a

68:01little bit with Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Like these quarterbacks that get rid of the football against them give them problems on throws within two and a

68:07half seconds of the snap.

68:08>> These are kind of jarring.

68:10>> The Browns are 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 31st and rating allowed to quarterbacks. Like you would not

68:15believe that like watching the Cleveland Browns defense, right? Um, and then yeah, >> teams that hold the ball, they go to

68:22second in yards per 10 to ninth in rating. Uh, and then obviously to a whether you want to be a to a thing, a

68:28Mike McDaniel thing, scheme thing, like 52% of his passes come within two and a half seconds, which is the eighth fastest rate. So, so the Browns rank

68:36first in pass rush grade for PFF at the team level and first in pass rush win rate from ESPN. They're only 15th in

68:45pressure rate and they're 20th in quick pressure rate. And I dug into this because it's like, well, what's going on? Are they overrated? They're not

68:54overrated.

68:56>> Teams are like making a huge effort to get the ball out quickly. If you look at >> against the 31 other defenses in the

69:03NFL, teams are averaging 2.81 seconds per throw. Against the Browns, teams are averaging 2.65 seconds per throw. bigger than the gap between Justin Herbert and

69:14Tua Tonga Aloa in time to throw this year. So they are they're trying to play like the Dolphins against the Browns.

69:21The Dolphins obviously are going to do it up. They're going to get the ball out really quickly. I do worry like I was

69:27wrong about this with the Steelers. I was like what are like okay they get because the Steelers also play like this. I'm like is this going to work?

69:33Like they're not going to be able to speed up you know like they're they're against normal pass rushes they're going to have to they try to get the ball out

69:40quickly. like are the are they going to kind of struggle here, but it's actually the Steelers. It it was it suited the

69:47way they play. They get the ball out quickly anyway. And so it it ended up being an okay matchup for them. So I

69:52think there's upside for the Dolphins here >> to just like do their thing and that's their thing is how you play the Browns.

69:59So in that sense, it's good.

70:02I also do worry though anytime you put Tua against an elite pass rush that's an extremely low floor setup as well. So if

70:12he's someone like in season long stuff I would be like oh boy. But in like large >> in the Cleveland home games like they've

70:20been real good.

70:22>> Yeah. Well and they face Burrow in week one. Jordan Love in uh that's it.

70:29They've only had two, right? Because the Vikings game was a home game, but not a home game.

70:33>> Not a home game.

70:34>> The Love game, they Yeah, they you know, they only gave up 17 points to Burrow and Burrow. What? They had the fewest

70:39yards. Did they have negative yards in the second half of that game or something crazy? And then Jordan the Packers did nothing in that game against

70:45them in Cleveland.

70:47>> They lost. Yeah.

70:48>> Yeah.

70:49>> Um Yeah. So, I don't know. It's it's pretty boom bust for the for the Dol and not much boom. It's it's competent or a bust

70:58for >> but there with the Dolphins like we know what to do anyways right because like even if you like Tua

71:04>> itua is like still a QB2 like he's not going to give you probably a tournament worthy score we like Wadd all the first

71:10read stuff for Wadd even if it's not a great rushing match up like they can get him involved and then you have like

71:16Waller with this red zone role although like his rout his routes keep expanding which we're going to need to because literally 53% of his fantasy points are

71:24touchdowns right Dude, 78% route participation this year though and he's his we've got three games and he's at a targets per hour run

71:34of 18% first two target of 15% 1.77 yards per hour run. I'm kind of like bought in. I think baller's >> Yeah.

71:43>> He's a low end tight end one.

71:44>> Yeah. Yep.

71:45>> So I think he's you know I I don't know.

71:48I haven't thought about him in DFS. I I don't like what's he priced at.

71:52>> It's a it's a really good tight end slate. Yeah, 4200 I don't think so. But um like give me Fannon over that all

71:59day. So I won't play Waller here. But but Wadd I think is okay. Achan I actually don't love that the the rushing

72:07matchup is so difficult and then and then you have a really low floor for the passing game and and maybe like there is

72:14a path where they're just like utilizing him constantly in the quick quick passing game and um >> it feels like a floor spot though.

72:21>> It does. Yeah. It feels like if you get remember when the Browns played Gibbs and Gibbs had like 90 and a touchdown

72:27>> like feels similar to that. Like if we get that like we feel good but like his salary like are you willing to pay that?

72:33Like that's not going to win you anything.

72:35>> I don't think I he's not going to be a priority at all. If I have a lineup with him that maybe that seems well okay

72:41fine. But the the computer's going to have to talk me into it.

72:44>> Um >> come on robots.

72:46>> Come on robots. Yeah. Balls in your court robots. Um the Browns uh side, we do have Damon Joker ruled out.

72:56>> So we got our duckfooted King >> Fannon.

73:00>> It's I mean it's happening, man. He's >> Yep.

73:02>> Last week 78% route participation. That was with Andoku uh still running 41%. So we could have 80% plus route participation this week.

73:13>> Yes, >> his targets per out runs have been very consistent. Uh he was at 15% in week two, but otherwise 21% or above. in

73:20every game. Uh he had 29% back in week one. He's at a 22% targets per out run for the season, which is 91st

73:27percentile. He's a 17% first read target rate, which is 91st percentile. He's been pretty efficient, 1.47 yards per out run. I mean, and like we know that

73:36Dylan Gabriel is trying to get the ball out pretty quickly. Th this is a matchup where he's going to have like a little

73:42bit more time to throw because the the Dolphins don't have a good pass rush.

73:46and he's gone against the Vikings who blitz constantly and are awesome and the Steelers who have an elite pass rush.

73:52So, um you he had to he's got a he's got a 2.47 second time to throw which is the fastest in the NFL. It's just like get

73:59the ball out as soon as you can. He's still going to have a little bit of trouble holding the ball because they're

74:05probably going to be out both their tackles. Coughlin is uh is going to miss the game it looks like and and Dwan

74:10Jones is on IR >> and Cam Robinson left last game too.

74:14>> Oh god. Okay. So, they're they're really hurting a tackle. Uh it's not like an amazing setup for and then the weather.

74:21So, you know, Dylan Gabriel, I'm not I'm not playing, but I think he can support one duckfooted tight end. That's That's

74:29what I'm hoping.

74:30>> I mean, listen, if you got webbed feet, >> this is You want to be playing You want to be playing in the rain, man. Like,

74:37>> that's true. That's true.

74:40>> Yeah. Yeah. It's set up, man. I want the duck, man. And I wanted to >> also think about that >> hilarious thing for the for the Dolphins

74:49is uh not only are the Dolphins in bat against tight ends all year like they're 28th in yards target. They're 23rd in

74:55touchdown rate. Dude, it's all rookie tight ends. So this has got he's got to complete the cycle. Listen to this.

75:00>> Oh my god.

75:01>> Tyler Warren 7 for 76 against them.

75:05Mason Taylor 5 for 65. Aronda Gadston last week seven for 68. They also allowed touchdowns to Jackson Haw and Mitchell Evans. Like the whole draft the

75:14whole draft class gets a piece of the Dolphins. Like it's your time, Harold.

75:18Like it's >> all right.

75:19>> Yeah.

75:20>> I could not be more in.

75:22>> Every tight end, every t every rookie tight end gets a piece of the Dolphins this year.

75:26>> What a stat.

75:29>> Quinn Sean Judkins is another rookie, not a tight end, but another rookie here who is going to be big-time chalk uh in

75:35TFS. He's 6,000. They're going to build the game plan around him. Uh, as you mentioned, the Dolphins can't stop the run. The Browns are favor. They're home

75:44favorites. So, you know, this is the spot to play their running back. Judg has looked awesome this year.

75:49>> Um, he's run really efficiently. The number of support that he he's he's playing really well. He's still not really involved as a receiver. Uh, had

75:58just a 2% target share uh last week. Uh he's peaked at 13% but typically you know kind of around 5% uh 7% in week

76:09five. Not not a lot of targets but uh you know that definitely makes him more fragile.

76:15At the same time the upside really is through the running game where you're you're betting he scores a couple times and has an efficient day on the ground.

76:22Uh Davis was sharing his rushing prop.

76:23It's like 95 yards.

76:25>> Dude, it's it's crazy. Like his yardage is crazy high.

76:28>> Yeah. So he's expected to produce here.

76:31Um you do need him to score I think cuz he just doesn't catch passes but right this is a a pretty good setup.

76:36>> Yeah. Historically like and obviously like in your smaller field stuff like he's he comes along for the ride like large field stuff like you laid out

76:45though like this archetype of player when they're tracking to be popular >> like which he is.

76:51>> Sometimes are worth getting out from because if he just doesn't have the touchdowns >> your door is open. Now, if he's going to

76:57be like 35% large field and he had he could even rush for over 100 yards because he's probably not going to catch

77:03many passes and if he doesn't score a touchdown like he's not paying off now.

77:09>> He's also not like 5,000.

77:11>> Yeah, >> he's 6,000. So, it's >> and we used to do this all the time when like old Ja Taylor would be like super

77:16chalky or like something you'd be like, "All right, like here we go." So like uh but uh I mean I'm playing him still too,

77:22but like I think in large field there are reasons to come up with different builds, especially I think playing like well we already mentioned Saquon and I

77:29know people will just roll their eyes at that but like if you even want to do like two uh big build uh backs like with

77:35Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs on this slate, I think that becomes interesting as well as like a pivot off of Judkins.

77:42Um but I mean I'm still playing him.

77:43It's a great matchup. He's at when are we going to get him as a home favorite again? Um, and then just like look at

77:47the guys that have gotten there against the Dolphins. It's not like uh you know all these awesome backs are getting there against them. Like they allowed

77:56Kamani Vidal to have 140 total yards.

77:58Like Donald went for 240. Reandre Stevenson had 142 total yards against them. Some of that was through the air, but it's like and you know Bree Hall

78:06over 100. Like everyone's getting there.

78:08So it just you got to do it. You got to go do it.

78:13>> Yeah. I I mean he's he's a very strong play. He he's a little bit of a fragile play. So yes, when he gets

78:19>> I think more so than people consider that though too, like just because of his archetype.

78:24>> Yeah. When he runs for 80 yards and doesn't score, >> that's not going to do it, you know, at uh at 6,000. Like there's he can have a

78:33really good he can have 4.7 yards per carry in this game, right? And and fail because he he doesn't really catch

78:39passes. Now, you know, he has 6% target share. not zero. Maybe maybe he does catch a few passes and and uh turn in

78:46some production there. But yeah, that that it just makes him a little bit more boom bust.

78:52The Let's see. Yeah, I think that covers that game. Um >> yeah, >> Panthers at Panthers at Jets. Um the uh the service academy bowl.

79:03This one they apparently so I saw the underdog account had tweeted out a quote from uh from Dave Canales saying

79:13something along the lines of we've decided who we're going to start and who's going to get the bulk of carries but we're not going to tell you who. So

79:22that sounds like dattle doesn't it?

79:24>> Yeah. He also had this quote that Coach Speak Index repopulated as well that Dave Canales said, "Rico Dole ran with

79:33violence, a man on a mission. He takes our schemes and makes them come alive."

79:39So, I don't know, man. Sounds like that dude is ready to not play Chuba Hubber.

79:44>> Yeah, we just can't figure out who they're going to play.

79:48He takes my schemes and breathes life into them. Yeah, just takes that scheme and just Frankensteines that [ __ ] Like

79:58>> he's a mad scientist.

80:00>> I I love Did you see Dowel after um they you know he told the the Cowboys they better buckle up. Did you see his quote

80:06after the game?

80:07>> Oh yeah. What? Yeah. What was it? I remember verbatim. Uh >> he said they wasn't buckled up.

80:12>> Yeah, they wasn't.

80:15>> They wasn't buckled up.

80:16>> Hell yeah, man.

80:19I Rico did me good. I thought, you know, after I said I fumbled two weeks ago, uh the Rico bag, I said, "All right, don't

80:25let me down, Rico. I'm coming back. I'm getting on board." And he he was there for us again.

80:30>> Yeah, he sure was. He sure was.

80:32>> He is one where if we knew like if Trouba Hubard was missing this game, we would be very excited about Rico

80:42Dowel again here, right?

80:44>> Absolutely. So, do we have the stones to just play it like Rico Doubt as a starting running back?

80:54>> You I mean, why not? I mean, they take at least like and and I say why not in the context of like we talked about like

81:00some Saquon stuff like >> Yeah.

81:02>> taking that swing.

81:06You know, I don't want people like people their takeaway after listening to the first, you know, hour of us record and they're like they said don't play

81:11Judkins Kids and play Saquon. what I heard like it's not at all what happened.

81:16>> That would be a fair takeaway of this discussion, but that there's nuance.

81:20>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, but I mean I think you do want to uh like at least mix them in uh just to see cuz it's also a player

81:27that's coming back from injury with Chuba Hub, >> right?

81:30>> That was ineffective to the point before injury. So, and this is a team that wants to run the football. They're

81:34probably being a game script to run the football. They're facing another team that even if they get ahead are going to

81:38try to run the football on them.

81:40And so >> I I really really struggle to see how the Panthers aren't in a position where they decide they can't run the football,

81:50>> right?

81:50>> Like that that feels almost impossible to me. Not that they're in negative game script, but that they care and that

81:57they're in like such negative game script that it's like, okay, we have to pass the ball because we got to get we

82:03got to eek out, you know, four possessions in like, you know, eight minutes or whatever. And that that's not their opponent. the Jets. I mean, the

82:12Jets might like run the ball the entire fourth. They might get the ball with 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter and

82:17never never give it back. You know, they're that kind of slow uh methodical team, but um you know, this is not

82:25they're not going to be down by like 17 points here in the fourth, right? Like that's the Jets. Even if they win, they

82:32play so slowly. They run the ball so much and they're just not good enough, you know? So, I think the Panthers and

82:38here's the other thing, right? The Panthers over the last three weeks have had pass rates over expected of minus 7, - 10, and - 10%. And on first down,

82:47minus 20, - 29, and minus 25%. Like, they've been running the crap out of the ball, prioritizing the run game. The

82:54Jets and the Panthers are going to hold hands here and say, "Let's do our favorite thing in the world. Let's let's

83:00run the ball." They're going to skip happily along, and both teams are going to run the ball a bunch. And I think

83:06they, you know, most likely we're looking at probably a bit of a back and forth game. If anything, I like the

83:13Panthers here more than the Jets. The Jets, you know, they just crater. They can crater against anyone. So, if if one

83:19of these teams really going to let us down, it's probably the Jets. Um, but I think most likely this is a back and

83:24forth game where both teams are very runheavy. It hurts overall volume. But if we get Rico as the lead back, he can

83:32he can seed six carries. you can see maybe even eight carries to to Chuba Hubard and I think he he'll be fine

83:37here. They're going to run the ball.

83:38>> 30 carries last week.

83:40>> Yeah, he he could honestly like it's crazy. Like I was Yeah, I was saying he could have like 18 carries and still get

83:45like 60s something percent of the carries. It's Wow.

83:48>> Yeah.

83:49>> No, I'm with you on that. Uh this would be a spot too where like I would probably be down. We chased we I feel

83:55like we martined Tet as far as we could and we got the two touchdowns like in the three target game and we were like

84:01let's just leave that. I'm gonna leave it alone for a week.

84:03>> It's kind of like Yeah. You're kind of like, "Okay, I got away with it. I don't want to go back to it."

84:08>> Yeah.

84:09>> And you know, uh, and he's going up against Sauce and the Jets like have been awesome against wide receiver ones

84:15all year. So maybe that allows like a little bit run out for the cokeheads that are getting their dream of him

84:19returning this week. Um, but they are second in the league in points allowed to posting wide receiver ones. And they only allow 5.2 targets per game to wide

84:28receiver ones. And we've seen this play out every week. We saw it with Court Sutton last week. We saw at George

84:33Pickkins. George Pickkins got the long touchdown uh the week before. Um but like yeah, like they push targets elsewhere away from the wide receiver

84:41one. So, and then when you're talking about getting to like the Panthers wide receiver two, like we're counting on Bryce Young to do some stuff and they're

84:48like, I don't feel any confidence in that. Do you?

84:51>> No. And they don't want it. The That's not what the Panthers want. the Panthers.

84:57You know, I think Bryce Young is is probably at his best when they do just like drop back a ton and and and like

85:04kind of have like four wide receivers on the field and like play spread and stuff, but that that's not Dave Canales.

85:11And they're not interested in I don't think they're interested in like what technically is Bryce best at. They're like how do we win games in a way that

85:20feels good to Dave Canales? And that's the way they've been playing recently.

85:24like that this style where they just run the ball and they beat the Dolphins and they beat the Cowboys. Like >> this is what he wants this team to be.

85:33And that's clear from last year too with you know they they want to be a downhill running team that utilizes Bryce Young as kind of a

85:43you know a secondary secondary punch here. So this is a this is an ideal spot for them for for them to to play that exact style

85:52of football. The Jets are not going to push them off of it. Jets are going to be playing the same style of football on

85:57the other side. Yeah. So, I just I don't trust Bryce Young. The volume like and and don't make me bet on Bryce Young

86:03efficiency. He hasn't been efficient all season, >> right?

86:06>> You know, he got benched last year. He you know, I I think Bryce Young's not good. I don't think he's a good

86:11quarterback. So, I'm not betting on his efficiency.

86:13>> And the the few times I have been kind of excited about Bryce, it's because I thought he was going to drop back a ton.

86:20And and I don't think that's going to happen here at all.

86:23Fields is the guy if you want me if I had to get excited about a quarterback here, it would be Fields because

86:29as we saw against the Broncos, uh if he gets pressure, >> Yeah.

86:33>> Uh it's it's it's a huge problem. He sucks against pressure. Um but it's not just that he sucks against pressure,

86:43which he does. It's that their offensive line, which I hear talked about as like a good offensive line, it's not good.

86:49They they allowed quick pressure on 41% of their drop backs last week. The Vikings lead the league with a 31% quick

86:56pressure rate. So that's 10% more than the league leading Vikings they allowed last week against the Broncos. The Broncos quick pressure rate last last

87:04week was higher than the Rams overall pressure rate this year. The Rams pretty good pass rush. So what do you do with

87:12that? If you're getting quick pressure is not on the quarterback. That's 2.5 seconds or less. That's like you don't get the ball out that quickly. It's

87:19they're on you immediately and Fields takes sacks when he gets pressured. So that it's it's enhancing a negative about your quarterback. And then also

87:28Fields holds the ball forever. So if you do if you do hold up, he's going to create pressure against a good pass

87:34rush. So you know, last week was was pretty predictable. Yep. He is going to crater against teams like the the Broncos, but he gets the Panthers.

87:43They're second worst in quick pressure rate. They're dead last in pressure, right? I think Fields could bounce back here as a as a fantasy play. Now, it's

87:51more about like you go back to him in your seasonl long leagues. I don't think I'll have him in DFS, but I do think

87:57he's viable. I think he's he's a a viable play this week coming off the the absolute horrible game. Um, you probably

88:05stack him with Mason Taylor or with Bree Hall. I think both are fine. I think you could maybe even play all three of them

88:12because the targets could really condense to those three players or to those two players from Fields. Um, and yeah, Fields is only 5,700. He does have

88:20a ceiling, right? Uh, he can run and you know, if if you give him time to throw, he can do some stuff from time to time.

88:28So, I think the the Jet side of this as far as like stacking goes is is one I'm way more interested in. And Bree Hall,

88:35you know, could just rack up targets here. He's going to be big- time chalk.

88:39>> Yeah, he's going to be like the computer guy cuz he's he's going to project for such a high workload. Um, you know that

88:45that it's just going to stand out like he's going to look really good in projections. We'll say like we we hinted

88:50upon it though like we do have like this little bit of a mounting sample and it might not matter just because the volume

88:55is there like where the the maybe the Panthers aren't just a pushover in the run game. Uh, you know, the past three

89:01weeks 2.7 yards per carry allowed to running backs. They're second in the league in yards lot before contact and like last week that was you know Devonte

89:08Williams had been running hot and running efficient nuked him. Devon Achan nuked him the week before that. So you know maybe

89:16>> first in rushing success rate this season.

89:18>> Yeah >> the the lowest rushing success rate against and they're third in DVOA now against the run. So that >> it's not just like a a trend like or a

89:26sample you know I think you got to slice it. It's the whole season.

89:30>> Yeah. Yeah, I think I would rather play it through, you know, Fields Taylor. Uh it was it was the uh third time in

89:36Fields' career, seven sacks while throwing for fewer than 100 yards. Um over the past 10 years, that's only happened four other times. He has three

89:46games. The the rest of the NFL, four uh in the 2000s, no other quarterback has had more than one of those games. He has

89:53three of them.

89:53>> My god.

89:54>> In his career. Like what a nightmare.

89:57Um, but I'm glad you brought up Mason Taylor because I feel like he's getting lost in the sauce this week because

90:02Fannon won, Mayor 2, Cheapies that just stand out.

90:06>> Yep. Yep.

90:07>> But we're removing uh 34% of the targets, 46% of the air yards from this offense with Garrett Wilson uh doubtful, not going to play.

90:16Uh those are second and third in the NFL. And two weeks prior the the Denver debacle, uh, he had 65 yards and 67

90:25yards in games where the matchups were favorable and he had 26% and 27% of the team targets in those games. He's been

90:33on the field for, you know, 85 86% of the dropbacks >> and tight ends against Carolina have scored 27.6% of the fantasy points

90:42they've allowed. Um, >> so that's the, you know, that's a le that's the highest rate in the league.

90:48They're also 31st in yards for targets tight ends, 26 in touchdown uh touchdown rate. And they under a AO run a ton of

90:55cover three. They're third in the NFL in rate of cover three. Taylor was already second on the team in target rate

91:00against cover three behind obviously Garrett Wilson. We're removing him. So I kind of like Taylor as a large field pivot off of some of the chalkier guys.

91:08Obviously I like the other two guys and have them ranked higher, but I think Taylor is interesting this week though, too.

91:15>> I do too. and he's he's pretty cheap at 3,400. Um, and like they're going to they're going to throw some like the

91:25>> there will be completed passes.

91:26>> There will be completed passes and I think Bree Hall, you know, literal leverage off of Bree Hall because Hall gets a tough running a tough rushing

91:35matchup. Um, maybe >> and Hall only has he doesn't have a rushing touchdown this year, right?

91:40>> I don't think so.

91:42Yeah, it's not perceived as a tough rushing match up, but it is. It really Hall needs to get peppered with targets,

91:48which he probably will be, but you know, they do have Isaiah Davis. He plays on kind of long down and distance stuff

91:56>> if they're playing from behind. Hall's a weird one, right? Because you're you're betting on targets uh is a big part of

92:04the value. Not everything, but it's a big part. And yet if the Jets get down, they probably have Isaiah Davis out

92:12there a lot. So it's like you it's a front running receiving back is is kind of the which makes him a little bit more

92:19fragile than you'd think. And then one of the ways that like Taylor gets there potentially is that in that kind of

92:27trailing script, uh Isaiah Davis is out on the field and and they're throwing to to Mason Taylor and he's just racking up

92:33catches. he has like seven or eight catches, you know. So, I do think he's in play. Um I think he's in play with

92:40Hall as a bet on the Jets, but he's also in play as kind of a a sneaky little pivot off of him. Um so, yeah. And I and

92:48I do think Fields, you know, he's going to be like sub 5%. It's not the craziest thing.

92:54>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. It's I mean, this slate is going to be so concentrated on uh Momes, Daniels, uh Dak. He's got the

93:02ceiling to compete with those guys now.

93:03Yeah, >> you're gonna feel bad when he has uh 11 points. Yeah, that's what I said in the walkthrough. I was like, you like you

93:11don't have to watch it. You really don't.

93:14>> As ugly as last week, but it will be disjointed.

93:18>> It will be tough to watch at times for sure.

93:22>> Um, Broncos or Giants at Broncos.

93:26I I would say the theme for me this week is there was a lot of game environments that I was like, "Oh, kind of like this

93:32one. Not this one. I I did not I did not like this game environment." Where did you land?

93:38>> Uh yeah, similarly, I think there there's case to be made for the Broncos.

93:41There is also this the the weird rest uh disadvantage though for them, you know, coming back from London and then the

93:47Giants playing on Thursday. But it feels like such a letown spot for the Giants having a big win at home and then going

93:53on the road to Denver on uh you know Dearius Thomas Ring of Honor day. It just feels like such a such a spot where

93:59they just get they just get crushed.

94:01>> Um >> yeah, >> and the other thing too because we'll see how much I eat this, but like I already bet Jackson darts like rushing

94:08yards under. Uh his like out has been like his legs cuz we don't expect them to throw. Not with, you know, not

94:14without neighbors, not without Darius Sllayton like against this Broncos defense. Like little Jordan Humphrey ain't jumping over nobody in this game.

94:22>> Little Jordan Humphrey revenge game.

94:23Rich, >> it is a revenge game. But uh uh man, I looked at this like not even just this year, but going back for three years uh

94:30under Vance Joseph, they've had one quarterback uh to rush for over 45 yards. It was Anthony Richardson, 46 yards. And in that sample, they face

94:39Justin Fields three times. Uh Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. This year they face Jaylen Herz. He only had three rushing yards. Like I don't know if it's

94:46the pass rush like because it's they they play so much man because usually it would be like if you play a lot of man

94:51and you blitz like then the barn doors open.

94:53>> They do run. Yeah.

94:54>> But like dude like no quarterbacks under advance. Like these last series I'm like oh my god. Like they don't give up any

95:00running rushing yards to any quarterbacks. So it's like Yeah. So it's like if if Dark can't be running around and maybe they don't even want him

95:06running around because he probably was concussed last week and then Daveball like phoned a friend and like was like you got to get him out of here man like

95:12got to bring him out. Uh remember that on the sideline he's like dude like >> they brought in the the independent

95:18neurologist Cam Scaboo.

95:19>> Do you dude they brought in the independent neurologist? Yeah. Yeah.

95:23Scataboo did the test. It was like it's good to go coach. I just ran into a telephone pole. But like, you know,

95:28like, did you hear that thing about Scataboo like putting on like his brother's helmet? Like, >> yeah. And running into telephone polls

95:34as a child.

95:35>> Most thing. It's literally the Tommy boy thing. Like, did you eat paint chips as a kid? Like, like, >> yeah. Why do you ask?

95:46>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. But, uh, so if Dart can't be running around like what is this offense going to do against this

95:51defense? What's the out? What's the out for like the Giants to score points this game? I don't know because the the

95:57Broncos are good against the run, too.

95:59Like, this isn't a Vikings setup um where they're actually like struggling against the run a bit. The Broncos, they're number one in drop back success

96:07rate, number two in EPL per drop back.

96:10They have the highest pressure rate in the league, fourth highest in quick pressure. They blitz non-stop, fourth highest uh in blitz rate uh per drop

96:16back. Um it's it's not a good spot, man.

96:21And and the other thing about um about Dart is he hasn't been good against the Blitz this year.

96:28>> No. Or pressure.

96:29>> So >> Yeah. Or pressure.

96:31>> He was good. He was good against pressure on Thursday, I should say. The previous two games he wasn't.

96:36>> Yeah. So I I worry I mean this is this is just a very very difficult defense and um even if you know they weren't

96:44coming off the big high beating the Eagles, they would be in a tough spot.

96:47The the other thing is, you know, even in the win against the Eagles, they only had a 54% pass rate. Um they're at 46%

96:55against the Chargers. They did pass 68% of the time against the Saints, but that's the Saints, right? So, uh the Eagles pretty good defense, not as good

97:04when they played them because they, as we talked about, they had the injuries.

97:07Chargers are very good in coverage. Um but they win both those games.

97:11I think that's probably the formula, you know, kind of a a leaning on the run, trying to run like 45ish% of the time

97:19and limiting dart, but I just don't think it works that well here against a decent Broncos run defense that they're eighth in dboa, 12th in EPA, eighth in

97:27success rate. So, they've been they've been solid against the run. Um, I think Scataboo will get plenty of work as they

97:33kind of try to, you know, keep I would say the big thing they're trying to avoid is Dart dropping back a bunch in

97:39obvious passing situations. like they don't want the rookie quarterback to get exposed against this defense.

97:44>> So, I would expect that we see, you know, a good amount of of Scataboo here.

97:48I think the hope for the Giants is honestly their own defense. It's that they that Bo Knicks, who's kind of sucked in in a number of games this

97:58year, plays poorly because he's pressured. Mhm.

98:03>> And Nick Knicks, he's playing behind an offensive line that ranks first in pass rush, sorry, pass block grade, uh, first

98:11in pass block win rate. They have the lowest pressure rate allowed in the league, and they're allowing quick pressure. They're third best there in

98:18preventing quick pressure. So, you know, you you have some optimism about Nicks having some time to throw, but they are

98:26going against a good Giants pass rush and they're down their starting left guard, Ben Powers. He was replaced by Matt Per, who's now been placed on IR. I

98:36don't I do not know. I I was reading Denver Broncos blogs to try to figure out who their left guard was going to

98:42be, and they're like they're just spitballing. So, it's it's unclear. They might they might move their center left guard and and use a backup center. Um

98:50they might have a a swing tackle play guard like there it's unclear to me.

98:54Maybe they've announced it. I didn't see it. But it's this is like a potential liability on the line for them against a

99:01you know a deep they've got Brian Burns, they've got Abdul Carter, they have Dexter Lawrence. Like this isn't just like one guy you have to worry about. So

99:07I could see this actually being a spot where the Broncos struggle a little bit too. Um, and if the Giants win this

99:14game, I think it's going to be one that you you get off the the quad box immediately. It's it's not be a fun

99:20watch.

99:22>> Yeah, definitely that.

99:23>> Yeah, Giants have spiked in pressure the past three weeks. Um, and then when they've gotten to the quarterback, like actually gotten pressure, the pass

99:30defense has held up. Um, they they they're another team, they play a lot of man coverage. Um, you're counting on Bo

99:36Knicks. I think this is a spot where I'm entertaining, especially on this slate.

99:40Uh, Courtland Sutton.

99:41>> He was coming off three really good games and then he's he ran into that S Gardner treatment last week, but uh he's

99:48a 35% first read target rate against man coverage. He's got a 29% target rate.

99:53Anyways, we've seen some big body guys give the Giants trouble like Quinton Johnson, George Pickkins, AJ Brown was on his way to a big game until the

100:00second half happened last week. And again, like just to add a little bit of the narrative stuff into it, like he's

100:05talked about all week like what Demarius Thomas meant to him and he was a rookie when they traded Dearius Thomas. He was

100:11on the team that year and like he took over uh tradition like Dearius Thomas like he's bringing donuts to the Saturday meeting and like he still does

100:18it to this day like for him. Like it's like so he's like he's he's up for this game. Like Corin Sutton is up for this

100:24game. So like I'm I'm at least going to well before you even get to the narrative stuff like I all the the stuff

100:29kind of there is some signal form and then like cherry on top it's like we got a little bit of motivation and then the

100:33slate I think is set up too to where like if you don't pay for Lamb and you don't pay for Jefferson like you are

100:39probably playing like more three mid-rangy guys or two around Rishy Rice.

100:43Um and he fits kind of that profile like where he's priced like this is a guy that could have touchdowns he can get to

100:47100 yards. Um, so like I'm interested in Sutton, but he's like really the only Denver piece I am interested in.

100:55>> I agree. And I I think the way this game I think is gross is if like the Giant If the Giants are winning this game, I

101:02think they kind of need to bring the Broncos down to their level because I I just struggle to see how the Giants are

101:06are like really >> Well, that's the Bon factor, right? Like it's >> Yeah, >> but Bon is he's a boom bust quarterback,

101:13but there's boom. Like he's been really good in game. He was really good. uh he has 86th percentile in EP play against

101:19the Colts, 82nd percentile against the Bengals, like and and the Giants are vulnerable in the secondary. Um and the offensive line, you know, maybe this

101:27this thing I'm talking about the left guard, they get it figured out. It's not a big deal. So they they play great. Um

101:32so if they, you know, that's not a liability, then they probably can hold up against a good pass rush. And I do

101:38think Sutton um is interesting. The the Giants play a bunch of man. Knicks has been pretty good against man, as you

101:44mentioned. Sutton's getting targeted at a really high rate against man. So, um he's the only guy though because Pat Bryant's involved now.

101:52>> Yeah. Troy Franklin's lost his juice.

101:55>> Yep. Um Marvin Mims is down to 45% rap participation over the the last couple weeks. Uh Troy Franklin dropped to 70%.

102:02Pat Bryant has uh like no targets. Um he was literally not targeted in week five.

102:08>> Nope.

102:09>> He had an 11% target rate last week. He has a yards per hour on the season of 0.56. So, it's not like he's doing a

102:15lot, but he is nuking the value of the non Sutton guys.

102:19>> Probably good for last year.

102:21>> Hey, we saw this last year like them like outside of S just play everyone.

102:27Remember Lil Jordan Humphrey.

102:29>> Lil Jordan Humphrey. Yeah, Franklin is doing or Pat Bryant is doing the little Jordan.

102:34>> Yeah.

102:34>> But Franklin was like locked it like early on like with weeks two and three was like, "Oh, he's like actually the

102:39wide receiver too." And then he's bled out. He's actually had some mistakes, too, I think, that have led to >> Yeah.

102:43>> Um him losing some reps, too.

102:47>> And then Evan Ingram uh obviously had a big game uh last week, but he only had 52% round participation, so I'm not

102:54interested in him either. Do you have any interest in the in the running game?

102:57I mean, we we kind of mentioned Scataboo, but either either running game jump out to you.

103:01>> No, I Scaboo, I think you're just doing the the the seasonl long stuff, right?

103:05Like he's he's taking control of the back field. We saw when they were road dogs two weeks ago in New Orleans, he

103:10caught some more passes, like was involved as a pass catcher in that.

103:13That's like what I think you're hoping for is he's involved as a pass catcher in this one with if they're down and he

103:18is out through that uh capacity. And then the Broncos guys like we just know what we're doing. Like it's Dobbins is

103:25like literally like touchdown dependent like flex type play. Uh there's he's not running any routes. He's not getting any targets. And then Harvey is like in like

103:33this very like poor man's like in auxiliary like receiving role. You the game could get out of hand and maybe you

103:40get some more touches for him because he's he does play more when they're ahead, but he has like there's just like

103:45nothing to glom on to with him right now.

103:48I think he and maybe we'll never get there because Shawn Payeyton likes to dick around, but he has this like role

103:56potential where like if he improves as a runner, he would be like such an intriguing fantasy play like like start to fail as a runner.

104:06>> If Stop starts to fail as a runner.

104:08Yeah. There's there's like underneath the surface you can see I can see it like in you know six, seven weeks how

104:13we're super excited for R.J. Harvey, but right now Yeah. He's barely playable.

104:19It's like PP RB4 type of stuff.

104:22>> Yeah. Yeah. And I thought it start slow, but I thought we'd get the I I mean, Dobbins has obviously played well, and

104:27then we just haven't had no run out for >> I didn't think it would be a three-man committee. I mean, they keep playing

104:31other dudes.

104:33>> Yeah. Molin.

104:34>> Mofflin was getting >> Yeah. Um gross.

104:38>> All right, let's move to the Colts at Chargers. This is This is one of those games now. I can see this playing out a

104:46couple different ways, but I like both of the ways for tournaments. So, I this game I'm excited about Jonathan Taylor who's not going to be super owned. He's

104:56very expensive.

104:56>> He's so expensive but so good.

104:58>> So expensive. But dude, I mean, they are going to try to get him going here and they they've been so effic like the the

105:05formula that they have has been so effective and I don't think that the Chargers are really going to be able to

105:11push them off of what the game plan is, which is going to be an established Jonathan Taylor and then have an

105:16efficient passing attack, bunch of play action off of that. It's really welldesigned. They don't have like a super It's like some of these rushing

105:24offenses, but then they do like a lot of the smart things like it they it really you you can be run heavy and be be very

105:32efficient and be sharp and and Shane Shane Stiken is is proving that. I I just don't think that the Chargers are

105:39going to be able to push them off of their game plan um on defense. I do think that maybe the Chargers offense

105:48can push the Colts to to shift, but the Chargers run defense ranks 26th in the DVOA, 23rd in EPA, 20th in success rate.

105:56So, the Colts are going to do the Colts thing. They have the highest play action rate in the league, super efficient on

106:02play action, 11th highest in motion, they have a pretty decent pass rate on first and 10, so they're not just like

106:10slamming the ball into the line. They're they're they're taking advantage of neutral situations to prioritize Daniel Jones's efficiency, but then Jonathan

106:18Taylor is ultimately the engine of the offense. So, >> in a lot of ways, like if you just look at the simplest, you know, Colts offense

106:26verse Chargers defense, I really do like this spot a lot for Jonathan Taylor and I like it a lot for Tyler Warren, who I

106:32view as kind of, you know, this piece where with their front running, he's going to be involved in play action.

106:37He's got a he's a huge part of their play action game um as a receiver, also as a run blocker, but you know, then

106:43when they fake the run, he's out there catching passes. Has been great. Uh but obviously, you know, if they were to get

106:50pushed to the air, Warren could benefit there, too. So, I think it's a great spot for Warren, a great spot for for

106:55Taylor. Um and we'll talk about the Chargers in a bit, but what what do you what do you view on the the Colts side?

107:01>> Yeah, and Colts have already ruled out DS and Ashton Dulan, >> right? So it kind of pushes >> he's back.

107:09>> Yeah. Well, but he's back, but also like he's probably but he's back in a different capacity because it's downs that's out,

107:15>> you know, and so he's see he's not going to have though when we were excited to chase Adam and I when Pierce was out.

107:22It's because Pierce plays a role where he's on the field every snap.

107:24>> Yeah.

107:25>> And that's not going to happen now. Like he's only even if they move Pitman into the slot in three wide receiver stuff,

107:30it still means Adai is not going to play he's only going to play in 11 personnel still. He is not playing over Pierce and

107:37Pitman like ever in 12 like they're just >> Yeah.

107:41>> So you we're not chasing that this time uh because of the guy that's out. So I think it just pushes stuff to to to me

107:48just Pitman and Warren. Uh I think that those guys get the concentrated stuff.

107:51So Jesse Miner and like his style of play like you know they they're they're at the bottom of the league in man

107:56coverage. They're top six in in cover three cover four quarters. Uh they're predicated on not allowing big plays.

108:03They're third in the NFL in completion rate. A allowed on throws 10 or more yards downfield. The Colts have the guys

108:08for this. Like they do like they'll they'll throw a bunch of eight yard passes to Michael Pitman and throw a bunch of plaction passes to Tyler Tyler

108:16Warren. Like they have the dudes for this. So I I think the Colts are going to do just what they do to be honest.

108:22Yeah.

108:23>> I think it's because the Chargers have gotten flooded the past two weeks by explosive runners. I mean, uh, literally the same line, back-to-back games. 150

108:31yards and two touchdowns to Dollar Bill Crosky Merritt and then 150 yards and two touchdowns to Devin Han last week and now they're facing, you know,

108:40Jonathan Taylor. So, sets up really good. Tyler Warren's cooked against all those coverages that we talked about. I mean, he's he leads uh the team with 35%

108:48of the targets, 3.9 yards per run. Just it's a not a great matchup for tight ends because of Derwin James stuff, but

108:54like it's Tyler Warren like it's he's a He's like not a guy like where you're like going to get like over like it's

109:01one of those matchups where it's like a strength on strength match ups where he can win still too. So >> totally.

109:06>> Yeah. So I'm I'm in on the payup for Warren especially in tournaments. I'm in on the pay up for Jonathan Taylor in

109:12tournaments. I like Pitman as a cheap play. Like he has a few 20 point games already too. So I just think it's that

109:19we remove downs. Like those two guys are going to benefit.

109:23>> I Yeah, I I like the Colts here. Um, the only reason I wouldn't, you know, it's it's funny because I could see the

109:33Colts struggling from a team level, but then it's not bad for Warren and Pitman and maybe even Taylor because he's catching catching passes a little bit

109:43more.

109:43>> Yep. where what happens is that the Chargers are actually very good on offense here and are are kind of able to push the Colts

109:54off of this very like, you know, this is the type of of of offense where everything's, you know, kind of like

110:02fine-tuned. You know, it's like um it's they're getting efficient. It's like kind of the Seahawks are doing like they're getting really efficient play

110:11out of the quarterback, but it's they're limiting. It's very kind of like curated on offense on, you know, from the drop

110:17back offense and it's built around >> really strong. It's a It's kind of like the Packers play like this, too. Like,

110:24we're going to have the strong running game. We're going to lean on the running game. Packers lean on the running game

110:29too much sometimes. That's how you lose to the Browns. And they, you know, but we're we're not we're not in the

110:35business of like just dropping back a bunch and exposing our quarterback in obvious dropback situations.

110:42there. There's no reason that they would do that here from the defensive matchup, but I do have some hope that the that

110:50the Chargers could push them. And one of the reasons that I have that hope is that Chvarius Ward is out. He's just

110:57been ruled out.

110:58>> Yeah. Yeah.

110:58>> Um and Kenny Moore, LPLPD, DNP, he's missed the last three games. So, they have these two backup quarterbacks that

111:09I wrote up because Xavon Howard retired.

111:12>> Yeah.

111:12>> Um, so they they're down him >> and Jaylen Jones they lost in the preseason.

111:17>> So, they're down to this dude Edwards.

111:20Um, Jonathan Edwards and Mai Blackman.

111:24Blackman I was looking at looking at rate of of yards allowed in primary coverage per per uh coverage snap.

111:31Blackman ranks uh 95th there and Edwards ranks 111th which is fourth worst at the position. So these dudes and these are

111:40your two outside quarterbacks because um they got this dude Lammons who plays in the slot and he's actually been really good uh replacing Kenny Moore. But if

111:48it's if it's both of these guys as their primary outside quarterbacks and maybe the Chargers get Joe Altback who got an

111:56a limited practice yesterday. I haven't seen the practice report for him yet.

111:59But we've got the first of these two dominoes was do we get both of the backup quarterbacks. Moore is questionable. He's not officially out,

112:06but he DMPed today, so I I think he probably doesn't play.

112:11I like the Chargers passing game here.

112:13Like, and the Chargers passing game maybe isn't fragile because they could either get there and and and win through the pass

112:25because, you know, I think that's the path of least resistance here that it's a weak pass. Not super weak, but it's

112:29not a great pass rush. And now the secondary looks like one to target. But also, you could get there in trailing

112:34script if if Jonathan Taylor puts it on him and they're they're trailing the whole game. Now all of a sudden my my

112:40Chargers stacks maybe even look better.

112:41So I I like the Chargers a lot more than I thought it would. Um you know, as I dug into these these

112:48quarterback injuries, it's like, oh man, this this this potentially unlocks something here. Um a secondary a and look that the Colts have been like okay

112:58on defense, but they haven't really played that many people. You know, the the offense that they've gone against like >> they could get exposed by by a good

113:06offense. I would really like if Joe Alt plays that would make >> Well, they've given up big games to to Knicks and Stafford.

113:12>> Yeah, but I mean if they've played um the Dolphins >> No, it's I mean Herbert couldn't get them.

113:18>> Yeah, they can. Yeah. Uh Rams, Raiders, and and Brassette.

113:23>> Yeah, >> this this team was good. And was Yeah, when when Ward left the game, Arizona wide receivers caught 14 of 18 targets

113:32for 164 yards and a touchdown. That was with Marv leaving early. like it was Z Jones and Michael Wilson and Greg Dorch

113:39like yeah Z Jones was was eating man. So >> uh yeah I mean same thing and it looks like QJ is going to be back. Uh he took

113:46it to like 11 he took it to like the 11th hour last week like to pregame and then they shut it down but he it's

113:51already practicing and >> he was full practice yesterday.

113:53>> Yep.

113:54>> Yep.

113:54>> So yeah, I would go I would like go back to him in this matchup. I mean, I know it's kind of kind of whack-a-ole like,

114:00but he he was still trending towards the being like the alpha role. Like even when the AOT shrunk, like when Joe Alt

114:06got hurt, >> that was like his he had that was his highest like first retarget game was like the game all got hurt and it was

114:11like man like he's starting to get it all. It's all coming together. Um he picks up that injury. We don't see

114:16Maki's been fine the last two weeks, but like he had the week before he had just a touchdown and then last week he he was

114:23okay and then he had the 40 yard catch and run that sealed the game. Um, awesome play by by Hassan Haskins on

114:28that play too. Uh, who uh did not win the hot hand award, but he he was huge on that that play though for Maki. Um, I

114:37don't if you saw it like he like he he made the block for Herbert in the backfield first and then he passed up

114:43Vlad Maki and threw a block downfield like >> Oh wow.

114:47>> It was an incredible play. Like absolutely bonkers, man. Uh, but he he did not he did not win the backfield hot

114:53hand. He didn't. Well, what's what's your your read on that? Is Is this Fidal's backfield or is he just the hot

114:59hand last week?

115:00>> Um I think he will have the first go. I don't think it's quite a Michael Carter situation or like Michael Carter like

115:06>> was bad and then like because I remember writing up Michael Carter last week like man this dude was even like he was even

115:12good. Like this feels very fragile.

115:14>> Vidal at least like turned in explosives contributed in the pass game. Like is there some volatility here? Yeah, it came against the Dolphins. Yes, he had

115:23like he lost yards on 20% of his runs.

115:26Is it still a bad offensive line? Yes.

115:28But like the Colts aren't very good against the run either.

115:30>> No.

115:31>> Um so I think he's gonna have first crack at it, but like could we still see some high jinks like inside the five? Do

115:38I think he's like open and shut case to where like he's going to have like 80% of the backfield touches? I don't

115:43either. But I do think he's going to have first crack uh at rolling over what they he showed last week.

115:50Okay.

115:50>> Yeah. I I I view it the same. I think >> you're >> not really playing him though either.

115:54>> Yeah. I'm wondering if maybe I'm like buying into him a little too much.

115:57Although you you do have the dowel thing. It's like sometimes this works, you know? Sometimes.

116:01>> Yes. But yeah, I'm kind of torn on I I may end up playing him. I'm I'm I'm not >> I might pivot to him. Uh, so like if I

116:10am playing >> because this game is a pivot game because if you're rostering Jaka Kroski Merritt, >> you got to and you're and you're chasing

116:18points like Vidal's your JCM pivot >> if you're doing Javvante. So like you gotta you got to keep him in mind for

116:25that.

116:25>> You start with your Cowboys and and commander stacks and then you end up playing Chargers.

116:30>> Yeah. I mean because that's the way this is the pivot game. It's indoors. It's got a it's it's a high total tight

116:36spread game. It checks all the boxes.

116:38Um, but it's just getting dwarfed by this command uh commanders cowboys game.

116:42>> I I really like this game though. So yeah, maybe maybe I'm just >> I'll just start with Cowboys Commanders and and end up pivoting because you know

116:49you're going to end up pivoting. You know those >> they're just outright pieces I like.

116:52Like like I said, I like the three core Colts a lot anyways. Like even if you play one if you like whatever fits your

116:59build, >> I kind of like QJ still, especially in the slate in large field stuff. And then Vidal is gonna be your pivot guy if

117:07you're playing JCM or Javvante.

117:09>> I I like this game so much that I think I can win a tournament with this game and 13 points from Saquon Barkley.

117:18>> Yes.

117:20But no, Dance.

117:23>> Yeah.

117:26>> Uh all right, let's go to the Chargers at Commanders. Um, what I mean this there's a million ways to to tackle this game. I'll throw this

117:36one to you.

117:38>> Uh, yeah. I mean, the Cowboys, it's every team, right? Like it's it's everybody. I mean, Bryce Young had eight yards per pass attempt. And like like he

117:46only had 18 and a half fantasy points, but like when you like when you that's like transit of property, that's like

117:5230.

117:52>> Yeah. For Bryce Young. Yeah.

117:54>> 30 fantasy points.

117:55>> Fantasy.

117:57>> Price points over expected.

117:59>> Yeah.

118:02It's the run, it's the pass, they're they're the Dolphins, right? Like they're it's the same thing, man.

118:06>> And this game is everything. It's got a almost a 55 point total. Cowboys games are averaging 799.2 combined yards per game. That's uh

118:15highest rate in the league. And then Washington, >> so Washington's fourth. They're allowing they their games average 702 and a half

118:24uh combined yards. Their defense stinks, too. Especially now they're going to stop stopping the run because early on they were just like it was like oh

118:30they're a pass funnel like they're great they're giving up all these yards because they're making teams throw against them and then Monday night it

118:36was like well whatever you want to do we'll allow it. So like it's it's one of these games I'm curious to play this

118:41game the Washington injuries well we have that's the the interesting component to this game right is the Terry McLaren still out dbo's clearly

118:49dealing with this heel injury and then the Cowboys are getting CD Lamb back.

118:53How does that, you know, impact the early run out for guys that have been great value plays in terms of Jake

118:58Ferguson and George Pickkins? Like those are the things in motion.

119:02>> My preferred way to play this, I think, is through the Dallas passing side. And then if I'm doing the Washington stuff,

119:07I actually think playing Daniels and JCM just together to get all the touchdowns is my preferred way to do it because I

119:13don't want to play Luke McCaffrey. I don't want to play Chris Moore. I don't want to play Zack Z. And I know you got

119:18there are like every you know you guys all want to play Zack Z. I know. Well, I mean, I'm fine with it.

119:25>> Yeah, I know.

119:25>> I'm not gonna argue against it.

119:27>> Yeah. Yeah. And that's fine. That's fine. I just like how so many other tight ends, but I think you if you're

119:31going to do Washington, you do Daniels plus JCM and you just hope you get all the touchdowns.

119:37>> Yeah. I mean, you I I assume you would.

119:40Um I guess maybe Jerry McNichols or something, but um I mean Daniels is going to be pretty chalky and is a great

119:47play only 6,900, >> but yeah, I mean he's not as stackable and Dak can go off here.

119:54>> Yes, >> Dak can have a huge game and and so much easier to stack. CD Lamb, I'm I was kind

120:00of hoping maybe people would not get to him, but I think with as much projectionbased stuff, you know, DFS is is really driven by projections now.

120:09think he's going to project really well.

120:10>> No.

120:11>> So, people will play him. Uh, and they should I don't Did you see this the the pictures from practice? I think

120:19Wednesday.

120:20>> Yeah. I mean, he he talked about he could have played last week.

120:24>> Shanheimer, I think it was his 52nd birthday. He was he was exclaiming.

120:31It was like one of these things where like Shanheimer exclaimed after this photo this quote and then he another reporter was like he he said after this

120:37picture this other quote but he kept telling anyone who had listened that CD Lamb back at practice was his birthday gift and he was taking pictures with L

120:45like he was posing for pictures with his own receiver like you guys are together constantly like what are you what are

120:51why are you seizing this opportunity to get a picture with your own receiver like what are what's happening but that they were like stoked to have Lamb back

120:59and then they've since been reported you know, he's definitely playing and he's going to play a lot. Um, I think he's

121:05back. I think like I'm treating this as like Lamb is actually back. So, I I I'm not They said no restrictions. No

121:10restrictions. Yeah.

121:12>> And it's a great spot for his like where he wins to come back to. Uh cuz like the one thing Washington does, they do can

121:18they can generate a little bit of a pass rush. Yep. Uh, and what in turn that has done is like they give up the bag to

121:25tight ends and slot receivers and CD moon he's like a 50-50 player like he moonlights he moon moon moonlights inside outside so he's walking back into

121:32like a pristine spot to just have a lot of targets like a game environment we're excited about and it's on a slate again

121:39where we're missing so many high-end wide receivers. That's why I think people will still get to him too is just we're just missing so many receivers.

121:46But does the Daniel's value >> keep him like if I just want to play, okay, you're telling me got the highest

121:53game total, highest uh yeah, game total of the week. Both teams here have implied team totals of 26 plus points.

122:00These guys be pushing each other's points uh going to be, you know, available for both teams. But like Dak CD is not going to be like uber popular

122:12because because of the Dak side. I mean, CDI will be plenty popular, but I'm I can just play it through Dak Sidi and

122:17not be eating like a a huge amount of chalk. That seems pretty fun.

122:21>> Yeah, seems great. And Dak for a pocket passer. Uh I mean, he's got three straight weeks as a top six scorer and

122:27he's been a top six scorer in four of his past five games. Like he's had like an immense ceiling for a pocket passer

122:33because it's because the defense stinks, too. And like, yeah, >> these games have so many plays and so many points. But this is the Commanders

122:41this year have allowed the most fantasy points to both Gino Smith and Michael Pennix on their resume. Uh and you know

122:48they're 24th in passing points allowed per game. So it's like I I love Dak here uh a lot.

122:53>> Yeah, I I I do too. Dak Dak's second in EPA per game. He's been he's been fantastic. I mean, you look at like,

123:01okay, they lose CD Lamb, you know, what's what's going to happen now? And obviously, like there's no way Dax's going to be able to keep up what he was

123:11doing when he had Lamb, except he was like much much more efficient over the last three weeks than he was to start

123:18the year. Uh to start the year, he was in the 58th, 67th, and 40th percentile in e- paper play. Loses Lamb goes 94th,

123:2688th, and 96th percentile over the last three weeks.

123:29He's been I mean he gets a tie, a win, and a loss over those three weeks. It's it's pretty frustrating. I mean, he's

123:35playing out of his mind and is going 500 in a three-game sample somehow. But, uh, you know, he is he has been playing so

123:45good. It's a good matchup. I I agree. I mean, the pass rush is the one thing that you have to worry about here, but

123:51the Cowboys have pass protected well.

123:53They're they're preventing quick pressure at the second highest rate.

123:56Second best rate, I should say. um fifth best against uh pressure. Uh they're they have they're ranked fourth in pass block win rate. So I feel pretty good

124:05about their ability to hold up. Dak has been really good against the Blitz. He's been good against the Blitz his entire

124:11career. The Commander Blitz uh at the eighth highest rate per per drop back.

124:15So, you know, maybe we get some big plays against the Blitz here.

124:19>> And we get to see him play against Dan Quinn last year. He didn't play in either game.

124:22>> Oh, that's a good point. That's interesting. Yeah. Yeah. So I >> obviously that you know obviously Dan Quinn's familiar with him.

124:29>> Sure. Pickins is you know I think doing the DFS show um with Davis and Neil and Squirrel squirrel patrol we were kind of

124:37like you know Pickkins you know our big brains uh overpaying for Pickkins is actually quite smart or we're very we're very very smart. Um but like what if the

124:47actual good play is just to pay 200 more for CD Lamb? Well, it it is. It's do you It's I think it's all about who do you

124:56who else are you bringing with Dak if you're for if you're doing a double because that's where the conundrum kind of comes, right? Uh I feel like this

125:03particular matchup sets up better for Ferguson. But >> do you need to double him?

125:07>> No, you don't. But you can also I think in a small in small field I think I'm I'm going to onslaught the [ __ ] out of

125:13this game in a small single entry. Yeah.

125:15>> I I'm going to play like I'm going to play like six dudes from this game. Like six or seven guys. Well, do you think

125:20that the I know you said you don't want to play them, but but do you think they're viable? The the cheapies on the

125:24Washington side.

125:26>> I mean Oh, yeah. I mean, it's the Cowboys.

125:28>> Yeah.

125:29>> I'm not going to rule out anyone. The problem is is like, so Chris, >> and this is if Samuel's out. Samuel

125:34needs to >> Oh. Oh, I'm assuming Samuel is going to play still because he did practice, but you know, >> he just didn't look good on Monday. That

125:41was a scary part. You know, he didn't the week before though. He didn't practice and like look great. And then Monday it was like, oh, this looks like

125:47it's really bothering him. like he didn't look he didn't look right. Um he did practice.

125:52>> Oh, he did get limited DMP DLP.

125:55>> He was limited today in practice. They already rolled McLaren out. Um so I mean you can do a little Debo. The problem

126:01with the other guys is like so Chris Moore is directly playing for Terry McLaren. It's like playing that position, right?

126:08>> But he's also not getting any targets.

126:10He did have a touchdown last week, but he's not getting any targets. And then they're splitting the other reps between Luke McAffrey and Jaylen Lane 50/50.

126:18like they're literally doing this like rotating these dudes. Luke McCaffrey has had a huge play in each game like just a

126:25huge play. He he obviously has an uncovered touchdown on Monday night. He had a 50-yard catch against the Chargers. He had a touchdown against the

126:31Falcons, but like he's lit he's on the field for 30% of the like he has three touchdowns on eight touches. Like

126:38>> it's just so tough, man. It's just so hard to like chase.

126:41>> His target numbers are like exactly the same as Jaylen Lanes. He's just he's just run really hot.

126:45>> Yes. He's just run pure. So, it's like really hard to chase those whack-a-ole dudes. I I would say if you're making me

126:51That's where I would say I would rather play ZS than one of those guys. But, >> let me ask you this. So, I this is this

126:58was not on my radar when I wrote up the walkthrough because we had Chris Rodriguez DNP DNP then Friday full practice not on the injury report.

127:09>> So, yeah. And and I just I just Googled it. He is he is good to go. He's clear for week seven. He does not carry an

127:14injury designation.

127:16Does that change anything for you with with uh dollar dollar bill?

127:20>> Yeah, maybe just because of the fumbles, but um you know that he fumbled back toback games. You do like that they went

127:26back to him both times. He fumbled and then immediately was on the field again.

127:29Like it wasn't like he came back in like a quarter later and like missed a couple drives like immediately came back in and

127:34the last >> fumble did Jaden Daniels. That was Jaden Daniels.

127:37>> Well, he fumbled earlier in the game too.

127:40>> Right. Right. But but the second fumble was Daniels.

127:42>> Oh, but he fumbled against the Chargers.

127:43I mean, this two weeks in a row >> against the Chargers two weeks in a row >> and then he still had a huge game. So,

127:47we like that they stuck with him. So, two weeks in a row he has lost the fumble and then yeah, the last one

127:51wasn't his. It was uh the exchange, >> but uh he he keeps ramping up. I mean, he still has I believe their best back

127:58and like it was only a matter of time like till like he did take over. So, >> I agree with that. It's just

128:04>> Yeah, it does it does account for this eventually, but um >> it adds a wrinkle for sure, man. Um, I

128:10mean this is the matchup to have him like I mean the big games the Cowboys are allowing to running backs like not

128:16even like nickel and like we were talking about the Titans a little bit like it's I mean they're giving up like

128:21huge huge games to running backs like 240 yards to Rico Dael 155 yards to Bree Hall 157 yards and two touchdowns to

128:31Josh Jacobs like these are huge huge games to write >> Paul was just like gashing them and then you know he fumbled but it's it's just

128:39like yeah they this is a this is a good matchup for for JCM.

128:44>> Yeah and the price is right. He unlocks a lot because there was on Monday night so he has priced his price the same. He

128:50does unlock a lot. Like I said you do have pivots if you are overexposed to him. You can go to Vidal late eight if

128:56you need to.

128:56>> Yep. Yep. Um, so they're out still too, but I think he's it's he's tough to avoid, but I think you're right on

129:04saying like, hey, if Chris Rodriguez is playing, it just it just adds a different wrinkle to element that could play out.

129:11>> Yeah, I bring it up because he is he's not projecting maybe as like mega chalk right now, but I think he could end up

129:16being pretty chalky. So, um, especially like if Debo Well, I guess dbo is going to play. What What are your thoughts on

129:23Debo? cuz he he looks like he might be chalky and didn't get into full practice this week. Did look limited buying the

129:30heel injury like for for DFS. Are you >> I'm probably only going to play him like in I think like aggressive builds of

129:37this game >> and then try to come off if he's gonna if he's still tracking to be this popular >> for the whole weekend. But um I I'm

129:46obviously going to be playing some like single injury onslaught this game from both sides. I'll actually have I think more Cowboys just spread out overall uh

129:55in my player pool though, like in non like builds of this game. Like I I pro I might actually just 100% lamb to be

130:03honest.

130:04>> I might just play him in every lineup.

130:07>> I I don't hate it. the the thing with Ferguson, you know, because when from a matchup perspective, he's had this like

130:15crazy low A dot and >> Oh, dude, if if the volume ever gets compromised, he's the dude that's screwed.

130:21>> He's true, but I don't think it does. I think there's going to be plenty of drop back volume here. And um I actually

130:28think that the fact that the commanders can rush the passer a little bit >> could get him back in that low AOT role

130:33because last week he was at a 10.3 AOT is the only time he hasn't been peppered with targets. his other eight outs of

130:39six, 6.3, 3.3, 3.1, 3.1. Uh, and he's been targeted really heavily, no lower than 21% targets per out run in those

130:48first five games and peaking at 48% in week three and he had 41% in week five.

130:52So, he just got absolutely fed targets.

130:55Part of that's Lamb's out, but Lamb played uh in uh the week two and I believe in week three, right? So,

131:02>> yeah, >> he um you know, it wasn't >> week one and two. Yeah.

131:05>> Yeah. Okay. But uh 28% he got hurt literally like the first drive >> right in the beginning of week three.

131:11That's right. Yeah. So still 21% uh target sprout run to start then 28 um for Ferguson in those games with Lamb.

131:21And I think part of like his part of his value to the offense has been helping Dak get the ball very quickly when the

131:28when there is a pass rush to worry about which this matchup sets up. So from that perspective, I'm like, "Oh, okay. Jake

131:33Ferguson, just this could be good." But he's 5,500. I I'm not doing that.

131:37>> Yeah. It doesn't feel great.

131:39>> Yeah. So I think Dax Singles and maybe some Bill and maybe maybe J what I mean Daniel's stacks. You could do Daniel's

131:49Daniels Debo Bill with CD.

131:53>> Is that >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh that's that's like I like Daniels. Yeah. That's what I'm I'm not probably doing or it's either for the

132:00>> like I I like Daniels and Dollar Bill together and then Debo added on to that.

132:06>> Um yeah, >> the way to play it. That's why that's why I like to do the commander side. I'm not really going to chase the Lukes and

132:11the >> No, I I don't think I'm either, >> but man, there's so many good um spots in that game. And then you can play

132:19pickins for sure. Uh >> Oh, yeah. I don't talk about a pivot, right? You after after you you know, you swing

132:27>> also. Yeah. If you're ahead with Lamb.

132:30>> Yeah.

132:31>> If you're ahead or if you're be If you're behind, I'm sorry. If you're behind with Lamb, >> go to pick,

132:35>> you probably you've got to play pickets.

132:37>> Yeah. So, you got a pivot game and a pivot wide receiver. Um All right.

132:41>> It's a big late swap slate for sure, man.

132:43>> It's a big late swap slate for sure.

132:44Yeah. This final game, I don't think it's going to be as fun to late swap to.

132:49To me, the premium late swap game, >> what counts? Yeah, we really should have. Um the the the key late swipe game

132:58as we covered is is the Chargers, but um and the Colts, but uh Packers, Cardinals, uh you know, you could do some Jacobs

133:06here that that's that's in play. Um what what jumps out to you about this game?

133:10>> Yeah, just Well, there I I think the mini that the the McBride Jacobs stuff is in play. Uh so well, Jacobs, man,

133:17like his usage is going crazy right now.

133:20And it's not just like last year where he was getting like all the touches, right? Or he's getting he's like involved as a pass catcher now.

133:26>> He is. Yeah.

133:27>> I don't know if that's a Jaden Reed thing or if it's just like been kind of but it's it's been static for three

133:31games in a row. Like cuz he has no usage to begin the year.

133:35>> Yeah. So none. None. And then he's got five catches, four catches, five catches over in the yards like because Jonathan

133:41Taylor's gotten more use as a pass catcher this year, but he still has a lot of games where it's like he's

133:45getting some checkdowns for like four for 14 like stuff like that. But like Jacobs, man, like 44 yards, 71 yards, 57

133:53yards. Like these are big. These are like on top of his rushing and touchdown equity. It's like very significant. Like if this holds up, like he looks like

134:02actually he honestly he looks like Jonathan Taylor >> and you know the Cardinals just faced Jonathan Taylor. Gave 140 yards and a

134:11touchdown to him. Um I think the Cardinal stuff is really interesting.

134:15Uh, I'll let you circle back to Jacobs in a second because we had talked about this a few times. I think we brought it

134:20up on this show that the marriage the intersection of Drew Petting, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler like there's something up and it's like maybe if you

134:29isolate some of these other some of these other elements, we can get some more truths revealed. And I came away last week a lot more confident in Drew

134:37Petting. I was like, "Oh, I can't wait to see like what the Cardinals do today without Kyler Murray." And we got to see

134:43Brassette play under center for 50% of his drop backs. Kyler's at 23% under center rate. And what can you do? We

134:50talked about Jaylen Herz. When you were able to play under center, you can do more cool things like especially against this current defensive meta. Um, so you

134:58know, wi with Murray taking so many shotgun snaps, they only use play action on 21% of Murray's drop back. He's in

135:04shotgun so much. Well, Brousette was at 41%, fourth highest rate in the league.

135:08on his play action passes he was 12 of 18.1 yards for pass attempt when they didn't use play action 15 of 26 57% 6.7

135:17yards for pass attempt this is not a pro Jacobe Brassette versus the Packers thing it was just like uh functionality of the offense if they're

135:24>> the offense is actually working as designed >> and that is like a huge signal for Trey McBride so uh you know Trey McBride in

135:32the even before last week led the NFL in target rate on play action passes so It was like it's like the thing we talk

135:39about like Harold Fan and like he's getting all these targets. He just needs the routes. Well, McBride was getting all of these play action targets. They

135:45just weren't running play action. Now, if that's the plan to run more play action and we'll see if it holds up, you

135:50know, being underdogs because I mean he is 43% of the team targets on play action passes. Uh uh and he he leads the

135:58NFL. Um and also the matchup is like the only the only position that's like getting over on the Packers is the tight

136:05end position. They've allowed good games to Ferguson, Zackertz, Leaporta, even Tanner Hudson scored a touchdown against them last week. So, I do like the mini

136:14because no one's paying up at tight end.

136:15That's why we brought the thing with Warren, but we have some tight ends that are actually in context of the slate,

136:20wide receivers. Like Tyler Warren to me is a wide receiver. Trent Bride's a wide receiver to me. And the wide receivers

136:26that are going to get played at the price point on DraftKings, especially at the price point of these tight ends, aren't as good as these guys. So, it

136:34makes some intriguing plays, I think, in in tournaments where you would play one of these guys with Bannon or with Michael Mayer.

136:41>> I like it. I like that call a lot. The the when I wrote up this game, I came away feeling like

136:48it has some real potential for Brassette to turn into a pumpkin.

136:53>> Sure. where you go against the Colts and you look okay and then you go against the Packers and the Packers haven't had

137:02like the dominant pass rush that that we were expecting, but like you look at Parsons and all the the numbers, he he's

137:07still awesome. Um they might be without uh Wyatt in this game, which would hurt their interior pass rush, but this is

137:14still a dangerous defense to go against.

137:17And like >> look at Brassette last year. Like he stunk. And I know he was against uh you know he was behind the Patriots

137:23offensive line, but like May was much much more efficient than Brassette last season in the same situation. Obviously May's a lot better, but like he he was

137:33he was quite poor. Uh he was like between he was like kind of like around where Jake Browning was um before he got

137:40benched this year in terms of Brassett's efficiency.

137:43>> Oh yeah. Yeah. last year. He's got a um he had worse EPA per game than Dylan Gabriel has this year last year. So the

137:53floor I think is really low for Brassette in this matchup. At the same time I kind of like I'm like okay the

138:00floor is like looking at kind of the game level like uh yikes. Then you get down to McBride and it's just like yeah

138:06it probably doesn't matter. He's going to get fed targets. Like you just don't see this at tight end. So, uh, yeah, I

138:14mean, he he had 27% targets per out run last week. They're actually passing the ball a little bit more. They had a 69%

138:21pass rate last week. They've had a lean to the pass all season, actually.

138:25>> Yeah, they can't run.

138:27>> They can't run. Yeah, they're not going to be able to run with Bam Knight and Michael Carter here. Yeah, >> it's it's it's gonna be tough. So, uh, I

138:36I really like McBride here. I I don't have much.

138:40>> That's it. I'm not interested in like doing a a sneaky little stack or something with Brassette. Like I think Brassette's gonna going to be pretty

138:46bad, but I think McBride still gets there.

138:49>> Exactly. I think Br could throw for 165 yards and we get 90 of them to Trey McBride and you know 12 targets to him.

138:56>> 12 targets. Yeah. Let's go.

138:57>> 12 targets to ride. Yeah. I like it as a mini. Uh and I'm not going to exclusively play two tight end. This

139:02would be DraftKings only. Not on FanDuel either. Uh but just because a lot of people are going to be paying for

139:07receivers in that same price point. And >> why why wouldn't you play McBride on FanDuel?

139:11>> No. Oh, I mean you can, but like he has two touchdowns, man.

139:16>> He has two touchdowns. Like we're ahead of the pace, man. We're we're doing real good.

139:20>> He actually does score.

139:21>> Yeah, he might score six this year. Wow.

139:23>> We are okay.

139:25We got two. Um, but no, I mean because because on FanDuel like you don't get the run out for like the the Fan and

139:32Michael Mayer stuff >> like uh as you do on DraftKings whereas like you can pay because I think I would include I think Fannon and and Mayor

139:41also are going to have target shares that are wide receiver adjacent.

139:45>> Yeah, I agree.

139:46>> That's why I think it's okay. I'm not telling everyone to play two tight ends.

139:49Like it's I get it. It's it's it's donkey stuff. But like the in particular with that quartet of guys, >> it's not always donkey stuff. if it

139:56depends on the slate and who's available and what the prices are.

139:58>> These are guys that I'm projecting to have 25 plus target shares though >> like >> yeah, >> you know, all these guys and you're

140:05talking about the wide receiver spot like some of the receivers that are priced at, you know, the the 5,500 range, you know, on DraftKings and then

140:13you you're getting a 3K guy, you know, if in between three and 4K guys over there, like you're going to get a lot of

140:19like ownership on these guys. Obviously, Rashid Rice is is fine. I'm gonna play him, too. But, uh, yeah, it's just so I

140:25I like those guys there. But it's really it. And then the Packers just this is a we saw it last week like when they get

140:31ahead, they just run the B. They just run the ball, man. Like just run the ball.

140:35>> Yeah, they do.

140:36>> So, >> yeah. I don't I don't have a lot of interest in the Packers passing game.

140:41Um, honestly, looking at the numbers, post by bump um for Golden didn't really happen. He He had a good game.

140:50>> He was just good with opportunities.

140:51He's just good with the normal opportunity that he normally gets. Uh, and then Romeo Dobs was the guy. He had a 30% target per run last week. I I

140:58think like I I ranked Dobs as a wide receiver three and Golden is wide receiver four.

141:04>> Yep.

141:04>> This week. Um, so, you know, Golden's more exciting and and I think eventually becomes the number one, but he's not

141:10really now. And then Trey Tucker, you know, or Tucker Craft, uh, Trey Tucker, geez. Uh Tucker Craft. Uh he, you know,

141:19he keeps scoring more points than his expected points say he should, but um I don't have a lot of interest in him

141:26either.

141:28>> Honestly, based on the matchup, I mean, he's he's gone over five targets one time.

141:32>> Yeah. So, give me Warren for for 300 more or or find a way to get to McBride or or I'll go down. Um then there's lots

141:40of guys that I'm interested in.

141:42>> But McBride's definitely not going to be popular. Warren will get some popularity and then he has some late stops swap.

141:47But like I think if I'm actually chasing with some Warren stuff too, I might go to McBride. Uh if like I'm I'm chasing

141:53points.

141:55>> Yeah, >> cuz I mean he's he's he's tracking like the stuff I have like singledigit ownership, half of Warren's ownership.

142:01And not that Warren's gonna be super chalky either, but he's gonna be half of Warren's, but he's also his 500 more.

142:08>> And I think that >> he's only 200 more than Jake Ferguson, though.

142:12I mean, yeah, but McBride, like Ferguson is a bet on the game environment.

142:16McBride's just a bet on him getting 12 targets, which I think is even have more play action and more under center stuff.

142:24I think that helps bride a lot in this particular matchup, too.

142:28>> But but Fannon opening up, I think, definitely makes it much harder for people to get up to McBride where you're

142:33like, well, if I'm betting on a guy to get 12 targets, why don't I just take the guy who's at 3900

142:38>> easy. Um, so >> I'm gonna definitely have more of him as well. I just don't I feel like I don't I

142:44definitely don't want to I want to come in over the if it's if it ends up holding seven eight% of McBride. I think

142:50I want to be higher. I definitely want to be higher than that though.

142:52>> For sure.

142:53>> Yeah. No, I I like that call. I think I think it's a good call. One job we didn't talk about it as I'm just looking

142:59at my tight end up. I do I do want to mention um on the Eagles side, we we talked about how

143:05>> we did the only thing Pulo has done is get the ball. I think you know you did you did say it but we didn't spend much

143:12time on on Gddard and I think he is actually semi-interesting maybe at 4500 not like um I don't know I probably

143:20don't end up playing him but I I wanted to circle back to him quickly because >> he does he fits this match up well

143:26>> yeah they're running the new the the wide rece or the the tight end pass tush push now which is that underhand this

143:32underhand stack like >> do you think that's why They're struggling. They spent all offseason just doing wrinkles of the tush push and

143:41they they're like, "Hey, uh >> because we've seen a few, right?" Like uh we saw the Saquon one a couple weeks

143:46ago where they ran the >> Yeah. No, that's what I mean. They had the the flip to him there. It's like

143:52that's all Kevin's been working on. It's not It's like, "Hey, what do you need?"

143:57Like, "You have those new drop back plays for me, Kevin?" Like, uh yeah, I'll get you those. But, uh check out

144:02these three more wrinkles on the tush push. What if we built the whole playbook out of touch push variations?

144:09We did the whole thing out of it.

144:12>> If they ban If they ban the tush push, we're going to have 31 NFL franchises.

144:16They're gonna they're going to have to have to shut down the Eagles. That's all they got right now.

144:21>> It's definitely getting banned this year, too.

144:23>> I think it is. I think I think when they did it four times in a row, that was it.

144:26That Yeah, >> that that was the final nail in the coffin.

144:29>> And when everyone was just like, "Hey, the guards went off sides every single time." Like, >> but they won't call it still. They still

144:35don't call it, >> but they call it on other teams. Other teams.

144:39>> Yeah, it's crazy.

144:39>> Last night we had one. We had one last night where the >> uh Flaco did a sneak, and they called

144:44the Fallar >> Yep.

144:46>> Yeah, but they don't call it on the Eagles. It's It's nuts.

144:49>> It is crazy, man. It's >> I I hope Saquon nukes this week, wins me some money, and I can root against the

144:54Eagles again. That's >> But overall overall, I I think this is a fun slate. It's a It's a weird slate of

145:05games like from like a real football perspective, but like also uh from a like a DFS slate, it feels like there's

145:10more unique ways to play this than there's been so far the last few weeks.

145:15>> I agree. I I it wasn't was not my favorite write up of the year, but then taking it to the DFS prices and

145:22projected ownership and stuff, I'm like, I like this slate a lot. I think this is a really fun slate. Um probably means

145:28I'm going to punt off everything I I put in, but >> yeah, probably. But like I said, I mean, I'm going to I'm going to mix in some

145:33some two tight end builds. I'm going to mix in some because, you know, because the other thing, too, is this is our

145:38first payup quarterback week.

145:40>> Yep.

145:41>> We haven't really had like we've we've been playing Drake May a lot uh so far.

145:45>> Last week, none of them were on the the >> none of them were on the slate.

145:48>> Yeah. Yeah.

145:49>> And everyone wants to play Mahomes and Jaden Daniels and >> Yeah. It's the first payup slate, but but I'm gonna have Spencer Rattler

145:56double stacks.

145:59This is like This is the way. Switzer Rattler double sacks with Saquon. We did it. We cracked the game.

146:05>> Yeah.

146:06>> As Jonathan Taylor runs in four touchdowns.

146:10Like in the end, the Cowboys game is 65 combined points >> and naked Dak takes it down.

146:19>> Yeah.

146:20>> It's gonna be something crazy.

146:21>> Yeah. We got our 18 Rattler points, though. We did it.

146:23>> Yeah, for sure.

146:25>> All right, man.

146:27Uh tell people what you got going on with the worksheet and sharp football analysis.

146:31>> Yeah, sharp football analysis over there writing up all these games and somehow we didn't cover a player you wanted us

146:35to cover. Uh we did I did write all them up so you can definitely check that out.

146:39I'll also have my condensed player pull available this weekend too. We post that on the site every week as well. So week

146:45seven, uh if you're still in managed league streets, you know, this is a halfway point. Uh be be prepared because next week we have uh the bypocalypse.

146:53So, me and Pat will have a nice light week with uh three fewer games.

146:57>> I'm going going away for the for the weekend. Uh we'll still be doing the pot, but I'm going to take off Friday

147:02afternoon. I'm like I'm already anticipating uh the lighter week. It's it's nice by Apocalypse is nice if you cover all the

147:08games. Uh but but check check out the walkthrough. Legendary Upside cover all these games as well. Um also will be publishing the London game walkthrough.

147:19Matt Irby uh covering in an article called the quickslant the Sunday night game and then we've got the Monday night double header that I'll be writing up as

147:27well. So got you covered. Uh also have rankings and and all that good stuff. So uh over at Legendary Upside, check it

147:33out and we will be back here next week to preview week eight. Thanks for watching and good luck in week seven.

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