Top Guy Tuesday Mailbag - Training Camp Crystal Ball

A.J. Brown was selected as a wide receiver in the 555 league draft, representing a wide receiver start in the second round (5.5 pick). The source drafted him as a core wide receiver target.

Selected in tournament draft as part of a balanced offensive stack; drafted in the 555 tournament alongside CD Lamb and Bree Hall in a multi-position Cowboys strategy. Ranked as a top-four draft pick in an eliminator format alongside Bruce Hall, Javonte Williams, and CeeDee Lamb; the source took Lamb, Brown, Bree, and Javonte in that order, positioning Brown as a preferred wide receiver in the early rounds. Also drafted as part of dual stacks: Cowboys stack with CeeDee Lamb and Patriots stack with Trevian Henderson, with both quarterbacks (Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes) going in the early seventh round.

Quarterback drafted significantly later than Dak Prescott (early seventh round) in a 555 contest, providing potential quarterback value advantage. Has week 17 bringback element with the Patriots, indicating a game-stacking strategy for playoff weeks; noted as 'backstack stackable to a degree,' suggesting flexibility in lineup construction.

Drafted in 555 contest as part of the stack; no specific fantasy argument or projection provided beyond his selection in the roster construction.

Selected in the fifth round of an eliminator draft; the source committed to taking him when he circled back.

The source finds it unlikely that Quentin Johnston is straight-up better than CeeDee Lamb; while Johnston could outscore Lamb in a bad year for Lamb when the Cowboys offense is humming, the source rates this outcome as unlikely, suggesting Lamb remains the safer and higher-ceiling option.

May not hit in weeks when the Giants are likely to be healthiest and scoring the most points, implying limited upside in high-value weeks due to team health and receiver depth; may not crack lineups even with solid scoring (e.g., 13 points) during early weeks when the Giants are less likely to be healthy and scoring heavily.

Identified as the top recommendation for the eliminator tournament draft; the source committed to taking him if he remained available, indicating strong conviction in his value for immediate scoring in a head-to-head format. Also drafted in a 555 contest at past ADP, where the source secured him at a discount relative to his previous market price, describing the pick as 'glorious.'

Selected in the fourth round of an eliminator draft after being added to the queue; the source removed Brooks from consideration and brought Myers in as a replacement option.

Jalen Hurts was drafted on both teams in the current simulation draft and is described as the star of the stream, indicating he was a priority target for both drafters and reflecting his high demand in the draft.

Selected in tournament draft as the running back complement to the Cowboys wide receiver stack (CD Lamb and AJ Brown); part of a double-Cowboys running back and wide receiver strategy in the 555 tournament. Ranked as a top-four draft pick in an eliminator format alongside Bruce Hall, CeeDee Lamb, and AJ Brown; the source took Lamb, Brown, Bree, and Javonte in that order, positioning Williams as a preferred running back in the early rounds.

Ranked as a top-four draft pick in an eliminator format alongside Bruce Hall, CeeDee Lamb, and AJ Brown. The source took Lamb, Brown, Hall, and Javonte in that order, positioning Williams as a preferred running back in the early rounds.

Positioned as QB1 in the sixth round for draft strategy in the 555 tournament, indicating early-round quarterback selection with confidence in his tier placement. The source drafted him as his starting quarterback in the sixth round, demonstrating confidence in Daniels as a QB1 option at that draft capital.

Reed is mentioned alongside Mai Lemon in the context of WR3 draft options; no specific take is provided beyond the pairing.

The source selected Jaylen Waddle as his number one wide receiver in the fourth round, noting he's moving up in ADP and wouldn't necessarily expect to get him there, but is happy to land him at that price point. Waddle is being drafted as a WR1 in the fourth round, which the source views as good value.

Selected as the lead running back in an eliminator team roster that prioritizes immediate scoring; part of a constructed team built for head-to-head competition requiring top-half week-one finish. Also identified as one of three early running back picks in the eliminator draft, indicating strong conviction in his early-season scoring potential.

Consensus view is that Josh Allen is overpriced in DFS; while he has single-week spike potential, the source argues his spike ceiling is not unique relative to other quarterbacks at his price point. The source plans to largely avoid Josh Allen in DFS this year unless pricing dynamics shift (e.g., injury-related price drop), reasoning that the spike-week upside doesn't justify the premium cost when other quarterbacks can deliver similar ceiling performances at lower prices. In eliminator format, Allen's appeal is contingent on the price gap between him and other quarterbacks like Drake Maye, Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson remaining wide; if other quarterback prices moved up, Allen would become a more efficient pick, but the current price gap makes him a tricky selection.

Second-round running back who has increasingly caught the source's attention due to potential for increased pass-catching volume in an offense that could pass more than any previous team; he has demonstrated the ability to catch the ball better than expected as a prospect. The source notes this is somewhat speculative but represents a significant shift in their evaluation.

Wide receiver who emerges as a valuable pick due to draft positioning dynamics; he typically falls after Romeo Doubs and Casey Conklin in the receiver tier, making him a strong option relative to alternatives. In this particular draft, he fell to pick 120, which would have made him a top sidekick pick had the drafter taken D'Andre Ferguson earlier. The source notes that while Shakir wouldn't have been super high on their list initially, simulations reveal he's a strong pick in that receiver tier.

Quarterback positioned as a cheaper option compared to historical precedent, but the source expresses significant concern about his fantasy viability due to the Dolphins' poor offensive outlook. The Dolphins are projected for below 5 wins (4.5 win total), and Willis will likely be replaced next year, making him more comparable to Sam Howell's situation than a true value play. Unlike Howell, who was a 17th-18th round pick, Willis is priced considerably higher, which the source views as a negative given the team's dysfunction.

Mike Evans was an early second-round pick in the source's BBM draft and dropped 50 points in the final, but wasn't well-represented in the final because his expensive ADP didn't pay off relative to his production. The source uses Evans as an example of an expensive weapon that is so costly it becomes a poor pick despite scoring well; his high cost made him unavailable in the winning build, which instead prioritized cheaper value plays like Chris Godwin.

Undervalued in general drafting and specifically in Eliminator format; slated to start out of the slot, and the source believes people are being overly negative about his prospects. The source also secured him as part of a sidekick combo with Travis Hunter in Eliminator 2, and acquired him at pick 151 in eliminator draft, leveraging cheap rookie pricing despite general rule that rookies are riskier in formats requiring consistent weekly scoring.

Patrick Mahomes was a smash in 2023 and scored well last year, matching Drake May's points per game and only 1.2 points below Josh Allen per game in Underdog scoring. At eighth-round ADP, he can easily beat that price. The source frames Mahomes as a late-season upside bet—he doesn't need to match last year's full-season performance, just trend closer to it by year's end. While rushing upside may be slightly down post-ACL, the price is forgiving enough that Mahomes can outperform his ADP without matching 2023 production.

Wide receiver whose upside potential is already baked into projections; the source believes the team's valuation is fair and notes he's occasionally seen in simulations but not at the top of rankings. The source assesses he's probably slightly overpriced rather than undervalued.

Saquon Barkley was drafted in the source's winning BBM team during his Giants bounceback season, acquired after Mike Evans was off the board. He was generally a mid-second-round pick that year but was expensive and didn't pay off his ADP, making him unavailable in the final. Barkley's value relative to his cost made him a better target than expensive receivers; the source prioritized him as part of a value-focused build.

Despite contract/signing controversy, Diggs is not falling much in ADP rankings; the source notes it doesn't seem like he won't sign, suggesting the market is holding his value steady pending resolution of his status. The source would adjust if there was buzz that teams are out on him.

Tank Dell is the source's longest-shot prop bet at +8000 odds for comeback player of the year. The source expresses confidence in the bet, saying 'I could see it,' indicating belief in Dell's potential to return from injury and have a strong season.

Tight end acquired at pick 210 in an eliminator draft; part of a team construction that pairs an elite tight end with multiple cheap rookie wide receivers (Omar Cooper at 151, Deshawn Stribbling at 186, Jeremy Bernard at 199) to balance scoring across positions. Selected as the final pick in the contest, described as 'a nice pick for the point I wanted to make,' suggesting it was a strategic late-round selection to illustrate a draft principle.

Brady was drafted on the source's winning BBM team as a naked stack option (without pairing him with expensive receivers like Mike Evans). Brady had an awesome final game and proved to be a better value play than stacking with expensive receivers; the source notes that at a cheap price, a quarterback can be a strong pick even without receiver stacks, especially when his weapons are overpriced relative to their production. Brady was stacked with Chris Godwin, who was significantly cheaper than Mike Evans and therefore a better pick despite scoring fewer total points.

Part of a viable sidekick combo stack with Omar Cooper in Eliminator format; the source successfully executed this pairing in Eliminator 2, securing both players together as a paired stack strategy.

Selected in eliminator tournament draft as part of a balanced roster construction focused on immediate scoring; part of a team built for head-to-head competition requiring top-half week-one finish. Selected as the tight end in an eliminator team roster that prioritizes immediate scoring; part of a constructed team alongside Jonathan Taylor, Devonte Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Sean Judkins, Jaden Daniels, Jaylen Hertz, and Mai Lemon.

Considered for draft stack in 555 contest; the source was attempting to secure him to pair with his quarterback stack but was unable to do so (sniped by another drafter).