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Legendary Upside fantasy football takes on Patrick Mahomes
Every source-backed video insight STACKED has extracted from Legendary Upside about Patrick Mahomes.
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Insight ledger
All Legendary Upside insights about Patrick Mahomes
PositiveValueSep 1, 2026
Patrick Mahomes is highlighted as a recommended target at the quarterback position in an upcoming article by Matt Herby, which utilizes a new 'Apex score' methodology.PositiveValueSep 1, 2026
Legendary Upside identifies Patrick Mahomes as the most obvious good fantasy pick in their lifetime, noting they have drafted him on 32% of their best ball teams on Underdog, making him their second-highest drafted player. The source emphasizes that Mahomes is a player who can crush his ADP and move the needle, though exposure is slightly tempered by the existence of other value options like Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray.PositiveValueAug 27, 2026
The source considers Patrick Mahomes the most obvious good fantasy pick of their lifetime, maintaining 32% exposure. Despite concerns regarding his recovery from a torn ACL and potential rushing regression, the source argues the market is over-correcting by assuming his rushing production will drop to zero. His current ADP is significantly cheaper than in previous years, creating an asymmetric opportunity tilted toward the upside, with potential benefits from an improved running game, the return of Eric Bieniemy, and the development of weapons like Xavier Worthy.PositiveProjectionAug 25, 2026
The source identifies Patrick Mahomes as the QB1 on their squad during a draft.PositiveValueMay 9, 2026
Mahomes is significantly underpriced despite being Patrick Mahomes, coming off a torn ACL with all positive recovery reports suggesting he's on track for OTAs-level readiness and expected to play most of the season. He finished QB3 in Underdog points per game last year at 20.9 PPG (tied with Drake May), below Josh Allen (21.9) and Matthew Stafford (21.1), representing a discount relative to his prior performance in a similar or slightly improved offensive situation with Eric Bieniemy replacing Matt Nagy and Ken Walker replacing Kareem Hunt. In best ball, he's an ideal fit because he's not expensive early, may return reasonably early (missing only a couple games), and provides elite upside in the high-value final weeks (15-17) when playoff money is concentrated. The source made a deliberate bet on Mahomes at a discount, citing successful ACL recovery precedent with Breece Hall; expects functional mobility to be curtailed early in the season but projects return to form by season's end, emphasizing that Mahomes' arm is his primary tool so the injury impact is mitigated. His rushing ability is classified as Herbert-level mobility—intelligent scrambling and escapability rather than elite rushing production like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen—but in best ball he can still provide ceiling lifts with occasional 70-yard rushing games or rushing touchdowns. The source double-tapped Mahomes at a turn with a stack of Rashee Rice and Ladd McConkey, viewing his ceiling as not baked in due to injury recovery. Mahomes and Herbert are identified as two really strong ways to play the QB position this year.PositiveRoleMar 28, 2026
Selected as the quarterback in a zero-running-back team strategy, paired with Travis Kelce, indicating confidence in his production.NegativeInjuryDec 19, 2025
Chiefs QB ruled out with injury for Week 16 matchup against Titans; described as a 'gut punch' for fantasy purposes. Mahomes is elite and one of the most efficient QBs in the league even this year, making his absence a 'huge huge downgrade' for the offense despite Gardner Minshew being a competent backup.NegativeMatchupNov 21, 2025
Mahomes faces significant matchup challenges vs. Colts elite secondary in Week 12; he ranks 22nd in completion rate against man coverage and 27th in yards per attempt against man. Recent success rates have been poor: 13th percentile vs. Bills and 22nd percentile vs. Broncos. The source expresses concern about stop-start offensive rhythm against an elite secondary, especially if Colts employ heavy man coverage schemes. However, the Colts lack a good pass rush (especially without Forrest Buckner) compared to the Broncos and Bills, which could allow Mahomes to throw a bunch of completions to Rice and Kelce, similar to how Jacoby Brissett had high completion volume last week despite middling EPA per play. This completion-heavy game script should benefit Mahomes' fantasy output.PositiveProjectionOct 17, 2025
Mahomes is operating at an elite level: QB8 in EPA per game, QB7 in success rate, with 9.6 EPA per game this season. His current play is in line with where Joe Burrow was last year and where CJ Stroud is this year. He's been running more, passing better, and has improved completion rate and yards per pass attempt. Mahomes is trending upward with 25+ fantasy points in four of the opening six games. The Raiders are a bad defense overall, supporting Mahomes' continued success. With Rice returning, the Chiefs' passing efficiency should improve further, and they've been running at a 10% pass rate of expected this season—twice as high as the second-place Chargers—suggesting more passing volume ahead. Mahomes' elite play this season now supports stacking him with pass catchers like Rice and Worthy in DFS, a strategy that was not viable last year when Mahomes wasn't operating at this high level.PositiveValueNo date
Patrick Mahomes commands exceptional conviction from both David Montgomery and Michael Dubner, with Montgomery at 32% exposure and Dubner at 38% exposure—both analysts' highest-exposure quarterback. Montgomery notes they've been drafting slightly less Mahomes over the past three weeks and not reaching for him around a round and a half ahead of ADP, which has kept exposure still above 35%. Additionally, Montgomery's injury confidence on Mahomes has improved from the beginning of the offseason; they gained more confidence that Mahomes would not miss big chunks of the season, which contributed to a strategic shift from three-quarterback to two-quarterback roster construction.PositiveValueNo date
Patrick Mahomes was a smash in 2023 and scored well last year, matching Drake May's points per game and only 1.2 points below Josh Allen per game in Underdog scoring. At eighth-round ADP, he can easily beat that price. The source frames Mahomes as a late-season upside bet—he doesn't need to match last year's full-season performance, just trend closer to it by year's end. While rushing upside may be slightly down post-ACL, the price is forgiving enough that Mahomes can outperform his ADP without matching 2023 production.