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Angles and Upside Week 16 w/ Pat Kerrane & Rich Hribar

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

3 hr 21 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Dec 19, 2025

Published

Fri, December 19, 2025

18

Player insights

17

Players mentioned

Topics

Javonte WilliamsBrady CookBreece HallBrock BowersCeeDee LambChris OlaveColston LovelandDavid NjokuHarold FanninJames CookJosh AllenJustin HerbertJuwan JohnsonKeenan Allen

Player analysis

Player insights

18

Brady Cook

NegativeProjection7:05

Cook registers minus 13 EPA per game, well below league standards, creating severe efficiency deficits that limit offensive ceiling. The source expresses disappointment at Cook's return, stating 'I am bummed that we're getting Brady Cook again' and 'Cook in terms of his efficiency is like he's just not an NFL quarterback.' Cook lacks a deep ball and is a turnover machine who doesn't push the ball downfield, creating a below-average starter environment for receivers and running backs.

Breece Hall

NegativeProjection9:03

Hall's fantasy appeal is heavily dependent on QB situation and severely limited by Brady Cook at QB. The source states 'I would be excited about Bree Hall if we had Taylor or Fields without those guys,' indicating that Hall's upside is significantly constrained by Cook's poor efficiency and inability to generate volume through the air. While capable of explosive plays like screen passes for touchdowns, the overall offensive environment makes it much harder to project a reliable fantasy floor.

Brock Bowers

PositiveValue30:00

Bowers is structurally similar to Harold Fannon—both are volume-dependent tight ends facing poor quarterback situations and betting on being the number one receiver on their team. The source projects Bowers as a fourth-to-fifth round pick, with the caveat that he will likely outscore receivers drafted ahead of him due to his elite target share and route participation (95% last week). Despite his team's 12-point implied total this week, Bowers has been averaging 14.5 PPR points per game, demonstrating strong production relative to tight end standards and suggesting his elite target share translates to consistent fantasy output even in poor offensive environments.

CeeDee Lamb

NegativeMatchup40:17

Against the Chargers' zone-heavy defense, Lamb shows 23% targets per route against zone and 2.32 yards per route run. While he performs much better against man coverage, the Chargers play predominantly zone, limiting his ceiling in this matchup despite solid zone-coverage production metrics.

Chris Olave

PositiveProjection1:15

Olave ranks 86th percentile in open score and maintains elite target metrics: 24% targets per route run, 93rd percentile in air yards share, 92nd percentile in target share, and 93rd percentile in red zone target share. With Shuck playing better and the Saints passing at 67% last week, Olave has a deeper ADOT than when Rasheed Shaheed was in the lineup, setting up a potential spike week against the Jets defense.

Colston Loveland

PositiveBreakout32:12

Loveland is closing the season strong, part of a cohort of rookie tight ends (Gadson, Warren, Loveland) who have flashed upside late in the year, suggesting potential for continued emergence and draft capital increase heading into next season.

David Njoku

PositiveUsage27:27

David Njoku is getting consistent target volume as the Browns' primary receiving option with a 23% target share, which leads the team. Notable as a backup tight end to start the year who has emerged into a high-volume role. The source emphasizes playing the volume regardless of matchup difficulty, suggesting his elite workload justifies starting him despite the challenging Week 16 matchup against the Bills.

Harold Fannin

PositiveUsage27:24

Fannon is receiving elite target volume with a 23% target share leading his team; the source emphasizes playing the volume regardless of situation because the workload is so substantial. Despite being a backup tight end to start the year, he has emerged as a high-end tight end one, with elite production in almost any other situation. Despite poor quarterback situation, Fannon will have strong analytical backing from advanced metrics-focused evaluators. The source expects pushback on early tight end selection next year due to circumstantial narratives around McBride, which could suppress Fannon's draft capital relative to his elite target share, potentially leaving him undervalued heading into next season.

James Cook

PositiveMatchup17:20

Elite matchup setup for Week 16 vs Browns. Bills favored by 10 points and expected to run heavily due to Browns' weak run defense (allowing -5% pass rate expected, 57% actual pass rate). Browns have allowed RB1 scoring weeks in past two weeks to Tony Pard and DeAndre Swift. Cook has been dominant in second half of season: 100+ yards in five straight games, 7 of past 8 games since Week 7, and leads NFL in scrimmage yards. Metrics show he's RB1 in rush yards over expected per game and RB5 in breakaway yards per game. The Bills' offensive identity is built around featuring Cook in a run-heavy scheme with heavy personnel groupings; they run in neutral situations and employ conservative pass rates (38% overall pass rate). The source notes the Bills are favored by 10 points despite being on the road and facing cold weather, conditions that further support a run-first approach. Cook is positioned to score multiple touchdowns with volume and efficiency both present.

Javonte Williams

NegativeUsage41:20

Cowboys RB expected to see inefficient rushing attempts in a potential run-heavy game plan against the Chargers; the source characterizes this as 'a bunch of Javante Williams inefficient rushing attempts that stack up probably,' suggesting limited upside despite volume.

NegativeUsage41:20

If the Cowboys don't get hot Dak performance and the Chargers lean run-heavy (likely given the Chargers' broken-hand quarterback and offensive line issues), Williams faces a scenario of inefficient rushing attempts that stack up; the source frames this as a downside path where Williams absorbs volume without efficiency.

Josh Allen

NegativeProjection15:23

Allen's Week 16 matchup against the Browns presents a low-scoring ceiling risk. His four top-three scoring weeks this season came against Tampa Bay (44 points, 32-win), Baltimore (41 points, 40-win), Cincinnati (39 points, 34-win), and Kansas City (28-21 win); his other two top-six weeks were against New England (35-31 win) and Miami (31-21 win). The source questions how the Browns generate the game script needed for Allen's explosive upside: "I just don't know how we get how the Browns push this to a game state to where we get the cape on Josh Allen." The Browns' weak offense (Deshaun Watson struggling) prevents them from forcing the Bills into a shootout. The Bills' run-heavy identity—featuring James Cook with heavy personnel and minus-29% pass rate on first-and-10 against Pittsburgh—suggests a low-volume passing game similar to the Panthers matchup post-bye, potentially yielding only low-20s fantasy points despite efficiency. Allen is still a starting option but not a premium DFS play this week; the source suggests there are cheaper quarterback options available to stack, making Allen less essential at premium pricing despite his usual elite status.

Justin Herbert

NegativeRole36:01

Playing with a broken hand, which combined with the Chargers' offensive line issues, is forcing the team into a run-heavy offensive approach to protect him; this limits passing volume and upside for Chargers pass catchers despite facing a favorable matchup against the Cowboys. The source notes that if hoping for the matchup to drive Herbert's ceiling higher than recent weeks, the offense would need to lean on pass catchers, but the overall offense is not more capable than recent weeks, limiting upside.

Juwan Johnson

PositiveRole6:18

Saints TE positioned for elevated target share in this game. The source characterizes the Saints offense as 'just Chris Olave, Jawan Johnson, and like a bunch of dudes,' indicating that Johnson is one of the primary receiving options in a game where the Saints are expected to pass more due to weak run game depth and a favorable matchup against the Jets defense.

Keenan Allen

NegativeRole32:10

Expected to depart the Chargers after next season, creating target share correlation dynamics with tight end Gadson; when Allen produces, other pass catchers struggle to establish consistent usage, limiting their fantasy viability.

Marquise Brown

PositiveRole15:23

Chiefs WR priced at $3,900 on DraftKings for Week 16; the source notes that 'he and he's going to be playing a bunch now,' indicating increased playing time and role expansion due to Rasheed Rice's concussion absence, making him part of a cheap stackable high-volume offense against the Titans' number one pass funnel.

Patrick Mahomes

NegativeInjury42:07

Chiefs QB ruled out with injury for Week 16 matchup against Titans; described as a 'gut punch' for fantasy purposes. Mahomes is elite and one of the most efficient QBs in the league even this year, making his absence a 'huge huge downgrade' for the offense despite Gardner Minshew being a competent backup.

Rashee Rice

NegativeInjury42:07

Chiefs WR ruled out with concussion for Week 16; the source notes it's 'very likely' given concussion protocol, with Rice going into protocol a day late, removing a key pass-catcher from the offense.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

2,172

0:01Welcome to the Legendary Upside YouTube channel and podcast. My name is Pat Crra. You can follow all my content at legendary upside.com with me today Rich

0:08Reebar for our angles and upside podcast. Reeves, how's it going, >> dude? It's going good, man. We're we're approaching the holiday season. Uh, you

0:16know, month of November, fantasy football was bad and December has just been like bonkers and these like start of the fantasy playoffs. I hope Sunday

0:23keeps it going, but man, last week was wild with all the 40point games, 30 point games, and then we opened up on

0:30Thursday night with just an absolute heater. Uh, so I hope we keep it going.

0:35>> Yeah, now that Phil Rivers is back, you know, the offense has the advantage again. That's all it took.

0:40>> We took it back. Yeah, he brought back that early 2000 scoring for us.

0:45>> Yeah, it's 2020 again.

0:48>> Not for his team, but for the other team.

0:50>> And for everyone to know, he's the mascot. the mascot for offensive football.

0:55Uh if if you're new to the worksheet, uh if you're new to the Angles and Upside podcast, welcome. The the worksheet is

1:02uh Reeves' article over at Sharp Football Analysis. Uh the walkthrough is my article over at Legendary Upside. We preview the games and we we come here

1:10and we talk through what we think is going to happen. So, um that's what we're we're going to do now. We're going

1:17to dive into the slate, talking through the game environments, players we like for whatever form of fantasy uh you're into. Kind of go through the DFS side of

1:25this, but also helpful for start sits.

1:28Uh good luck if you're in the playoffs and congrats on on getting there in the first place. Um I do hope you have Fuka

1:34and if not that you're not going against him. Uh you know, you're pulling up I'm pulling up matchups. I have this Dynasty

1:40League before [clears throat] we got going. I pull it up and I'm going against Mike Clay and I'm like, "Oh yeah, JSN." Cuz I checked. I was like,

1:45"Oh, I have JSN in that league. Let me see how I'm doing. Going against Puka.

1:48I'm going to lose to a team starting Matthew Golden. That's [laughter] That's how good Puka was.

1:54>> Yeah, he was so good that he was just a couple. He was three wide receivers.

1:58>> He was three wide receivers in one. Um all right, but let's let's go ahead and dive into this slate. Uh starting with

2:07the Jets at Saints. Uh this game, you know, maybe not like the most exciting game ever, except this Jets defense is

2:16so bad they just, you know, let the uh the Giant scores to Trevor Lawrence and and Travis ETN kind of defined last

2:24week's slate a little bit. Um, we now have the Saints taking on this Jets defense, which is, uh, just got rid of

2:30its defensive coordinator, who, you know, very anonymously and definitely not on the record, is uh, is trashing the team on his way out the door. Um,

2:42just between you and I is so good.

2:44>> Um, the, uh, but the Saints, I mean, the Saints have been better recently. Tyler Shuck has been 65th percentile in EPA

2:53play against the Bucks, 82nd percentile last week. He now has two games in the 82nd percentile or in the 80th percentile or above in EPA per play,

3:01which actually matches Jackson Dart. JJ McCarthy's now hit that mark twice. Um, so if if you're looking at the ceiling of this rookie quarterback class, which

3:11I kind of include McCarthy in since he didn't play last year, right?

3:13>> Um, >> Chuck is is right there with Dart. Uh Cam Ward is actually the guy who hasn't had any of these games. Um and Shuck is

3:24passing deep at a decent rate. Uh he's got an 8.4 ADOT. His number one weapon, Chris Olive, now has a much deeper ADOT

3:31than he did when Rasheed Shahid was there, which is going to make him a bit more boom bust. But this is a potential

3:36spike week setup. And Olave was good last week with 2.24 yards per outr run.

3:41So I'm I'm excited about Olave here, who he rates ranks 86th percentile in open score. He's still drawing targets at a

3:48very high rate. 24% targets per outr run. Uh he's getting a he's 93rd percentile in area airard share, 92nd percentile in target share, 93rd

3:56percentile on whopper. Like the role here is super strong uh with his quarterback playing better with the team passing a bit more last week with a 67%

4:06pass rate actually leaning into Shuck playing well. And you know, if you want to talk about the narrative stuff, like Kell Moore is is, you know, first year

4:15coach trying to figure out if he has the guy here. And meanwhile, the Jets are like imploding on the other side. Uh

4:23this this sets up very nicely for for the Saints to kind of make a statement a little bit about what the future of

4:29their offense is going to look like. So, um you know, you're kind of riding the coattails here on on the Jaguars just uh

4:35absolutely eviscerating this Jets defense, but they haven't gotten any better in a week. And I think the Saints with, you know, a hot streak of their

4:41own are kind of interesting here. A lot more interesting than normal, especially because they don't have any running backs healthy. So I I don't really see

4:49how this goes through the run game with Audrey Esté and and Evan Hall leading the way there now. And Devon Vele is out

4:57which uh which is we wouldn't have said a month ago that we needed Devon Vele to be out to unlock more ceiling for

5:03Crystal Abbe but Vele was kind of doing that Troy Franklin thing where Troy Franklin was like for that stretch of like four or five weeks was earning as

5:10many targets as Courtland Sutton. It was like wow is this like a 1A 1B situation because Shuck and Vele were the the

5:17previous month he had more targets than Ave and the second he left that game caught four straight passes in a row. uh

5:24scores. He had he had 40% of the team's targets after Vele left over four yards per out run.

5:30>> So we might be in a spot where you look at this Saints depth chart because also Mason Tim has it practice which is wild

5:37like but the depth chart here is like just just dudes that are like castoffs like King Moonraer himself built this like Dante Pettis is still like Dante

5:46Pettis is still in the NFL like >> that's crazy. Kevin Austin, like Kevin Austin, like we were talking about like old wrote of his guys like we would

5:53wrote like at uh uh athletic score maven Kevin Austin like uh so it's like dude Alave could have like a a huge target

6:03share here in this game.

6:05>> Uh especially if they if like these again the backfield's the same way. It's like built up all the same guys like

6:11Evan Hall and Audrey Est. It's just like guys that like were at the bottom of dynasty rosters that like were No, I had

6:17that guy still.

6:18like, oh, so it's like just Chris Alav, Jawan Johnson, and like a bunch of dudes. And so I I could see like those

6:25guys having like pretty uh high target shares. Hopefully, we get a little push back from the Jets.

6:30>> Uh but yeah, I mean, Crystal Lavy's in a tremendous spot uh to be I think a wide receiver one this week.

6:36>> Yeah, I think uh I I think I was a low-end wide receiver one. Um yeah, that's that's how I have him ranked. And

6:45it's it's a really strong matchup when you look at the Saints offense versus the Jets defense. Um even though the Saints offense hasn't been great this

6:53year as as I mentioned they're they're playing better recently. Um the problem is maybe on the Jets side like how much

6:59push back do we get? I I am for the purposes of of wanting to be excited about this game. I am bummed that we're

7:05getting Brady Cook again. I just don't see >> I mean uh let me ask you this. How how do you like how do you like this term

7:14forfeit for Fernando?

7:16>> Does that do anything for you?

7:18>> Because that's what's happening.

7:19>> You don't serve Brady Cook unless you're you're forfeiting for Fernando.

7:23>> They're trying they're making they're trying to make that push.

7:26>> But yeah, it's [laughter] Yeah, I was even I wrote it up earlier in the week. It's like even like stuff

7:31like if you had Adam and I Mitchell and you're trying to like all right, am I going to push him? Like you can get the

7:36targets. It's just with Brady Cook, we would have felt a lot more confidence with with with Tyrod coming back for sure. uh because they were so willing to

7:42throw with Tyrod. And it's not that they haven't been willing to throw with Brady Cook. It's just he's not good at

7:46throwing. So, he's creating his own volume. You know, we sometimes forget that inefficiency can breed volume.

7:52There's a relationship between efficiency and volume when you're bad at it. [gasps] >> Yeah. Although, so they had a minus 10%

7:59pass rate over expected last week.

8:00Saints have been a huge runfunnel. Um I I think they were minus 22% on first and 10. like this was a really now they

8:09were getting blown out and they just wanted to go home but >> I think they want to go home again you

8:14know >> they yeah they want to go >> for the season >> like Tanner Angstrom's like like texting his wife like what what what's for lunch

8:22you know that's is that's his halftime adjustment it's like no no I think we what about subs you know they're they're

8:29not I don't think very interested in playing football at this point um and like one of Trod Taylor for Justin Fields will be active for this game as

8:39the backup.

8:40>> Mhm.

8:41>> And if they're active, how are you not starting them? It's just it's so bad.

8:44>> Yeah.

8:45>> Cook in in terms of his efficiency is like he's just not an NFL quarterback.

8:51Um the here I'll share the the chart here.

8:57It's >> Yeah. Do we have a new line where Brady Cook extends it?

9:01>> Yeah, we do. So the chart here would not be like it would end. You see Cam Ward, Max Brosmer's the the dot way over here.

9:09So, he's creating a success rate that's out of control. Brazmer had like minus 28 EPA in this one game and like

9:16fortunately for him made an appearance in another game, which like >> which changes his so so he's actually quite [laughter] he would be well below Cook who's at

9:26like minus 13 EPA per game. But, uh it's still it's just it's not serious. It's not as bad as Fields and Taylor have

9:34been, like they're just they're completely different level. So, um it really really hurts the uh the Jets offense to have Cook back there. Um I

9:43would be excited about Bree Hall if we had Taylor or Fields without uh those guys. It's just like so much harder to

9:51see any kind of floor. I think he could still get there, you know, taking a screen to the house or whatever, but

9:57it's it it's just so much thinner. The one the most positive thing I'll say on the Jets is that AD Mitchell's AOT uh

10:04since joining the Jets has been 17.8 26.4.8 and 13.8 dropped to 8.6 last week which is a good thing if he's with Brady Cook

10:14because Cook doesn't have a deep ball.

10:16>> No. So 22% targets per outr run 8.6 AOT.

10:22He can, you know, kind of be like a wide receiver four type of dude. I think is just the continued he's he he he made

10:30the transition from number one deep threat to kind of number one possession receiver which is what he had to do uh

10:36with Cook being a quarterback. So that's something but the ceiling is is obviously not not exciting on any of these pieces.

10:44>> Yeah. And the Saints defense has been playing pretty good too the past several weeks. They've only allowed more than 21

10:48points their last five games. They're getting more pressure. They face some weaker quarterbacks but that's what we have here. Like it's it's just a

10:55trade-off. Like the streaming guys haven't been getting there. Like you know they face Kurt Cousins, they face Tua, uh you know, Bryce Young, Baker

11:03Mayfield over this stretch. Young twice actually. Um he didn't get there either game and that's just Brady Cook is like below those guys. So it's like how can

11:12we expect >> how can we expect that to be uh any change here for them? So yeah, I mean St. Steve's probably in play if you have

11:18they probably were picked up by a lot of people I'm sure because of this Freddy Cook also turnover machine. uh for for

11:24also for not pushing the ball down the field. He throws a lot of interceptions.

11:28Uh >> right.

11:32>> Quite the quite the combination, you know.

11:34>> Yeah. [gasps] >> I mean, you you when seriously like when you look at the the draft order and stuff, there's potentially like huge

11:43huge value like multiple first round picks type of uh value in term for the Jets to lose this game. like they should

11:52lose this game. It's important for them to lose this game. Um so I I I think I honestly think that's what's happening.

11:58You just don't start Brady Cook unless unless you're trying to lose >> and there's a lot for this too that and

12:03the Saints probably are going to end up falling a little bit weak because the Saints play the Titans next week too.

12:07like they could end up with a couple wins uh at the end of the season to kind of but they're probably you know with

12:12Kell Moore trying to trying to you know establish more of a culture and I I would assume at this point too they're

12:18going to they're approaching the idea that they're going to roll Shuck back and then use the pick on some other another position at this point anyways

12:25with the weaker >> I think you have to if you're the Saints um >> because the >> they might use a pick the LSU

12:31quarterback is the son of one of their coaches right the quarterback coach Nusmire.

12:37>> Oh, is he?

12:38>> Yeah, I believe so.

12:39>> Nmire got benched though, didn't he? I don't think he's >> Yeah. Yeah.

12:42>> But they might just like throw at him.

12:45>> Yeah, >> maybe. Yeah, maybe.

12:47>> I think his dad is a coach for the team.

12:50>> Okay. Um, at least they're not going to have him coach the offensive line like Pete Carroll. Uh, [laughter] it's a better

12:58form of nepotism. Uh, the Saints right now are at seven and it's not like a especially like at the it's a one

13:06quarterback class probably. Maybe Dante Moore comes out, but I'd rather have Shuck than Moore, I think. Um, and so you're Yeah, I I don't think the Saints are

13:16particularly concerned about the draft position.

13:18>> Nope.

13:19>> I wouldn't be if I were them. I I'd be trying to see what you have in shock.

13:21That's like by like far and away the most important thing for them. So, but the Jets are currently at five. The

13:28Raiders are at two. if they could if they could pass the Raiders, if I mean, if they could get to one because the the

13:33Giants could win a couple games here.

13:35Um, yeah, it's just if they they need to get the number one pick.

13:41>> Yeah. I mean, this is it for the Jets.

13:43Like, if they don't win, they're not winning. They go Patriots Bills. So, >> right >> after this, those are L's. And to be

13:50fair, the the whole key for the Jets isn't even getting the one pick. Well, it would help, but I mean, they've got

13:55to not roll Aaron Glenn back.

13:58I think >> they've got to do I know they've got to do what the Patriots did though.

14:02>> They really do. They really do.

14:05>> Yeah. Just >> the defense is quitting and you've got a defensive head coach >> and also the offense sucks. So what's

14:11the point, >> right?

14:13>> Just Yeah.

14:14>> A lot of what's >> And honestly, if you get Mendoza, who like I'm pretty I'm not that into Mendoza, but I think he's like I think

14:22Mendoza is like a first round type of quarterback. I haven't spent enough time with the college guys.

14:28>> Yeah, it's not I'm not that bullish on him, but I don't think he's like a gonna completely flop where I'm like I think

14:38Dante Moore could be interesting, but I think he's got to go back to school. I think he's just he's like, "Yeah."

14:43Anyway, um but Mendoza's like, "Okay, yeah, I this might work." But like if you're going to do that, like bring in

14:51the guy who's going to work with him from the start, you know? right?

14:54>> Find the right marriage for him. Like don't do like what what the Patriots did to May was they they got away with it,

15:02>> but like that's it's not you got really lucky that that Mike Verbel and Josh McDaniels were available to come in and

15:10like save you from a terrible decision in the first place, you know? So, don't do this. Don't don't do don't do

15:17the uh the Drake May rookie season to Fernand Mendoza. It's not It's not good.

15:21>> Right.

15:23>> All right. Bills at Browns. Uh, do you wanna do you want to kick us off here? [snorts] >> Yeah, I mean, whenever it's the Bills,

15:32you just try to ask yourself the question of, you know, do they get pushed enough to where we get super Josh

15:37Allen. You know, the Patriots made the mistake by getting up three scores on the Bills and they unlock the beast because Joe Brady will let you meander

15:46through the game, but then like the second like they have to let Josh Allen take over, he just goes nuts. Uh, are

15:53the Browns give that push? I mean, you look at Josh Allen, his four top three scoring weeks this season have come

15:59against the Bucks, 4432 win, the Ravens, a 4140 win, the Bengals, a 3934 win, and the Chiefs 28-21 win. His other two top

16:09six scoring weeks were last week's Patriots win 3531, and the Dolphins win where it was 3121.

16:15Where do we get these points from the Browns? Where where where do they come from? Uh, how do we get these points for

16:21the Browns? So, it feels this to me feels a lot like the Panthers game when they came out of the buy and we might

16:27get like 21 Josh Allen pass attempts or some some low number where he's efficient still with them, but maybe you only get like low 20s fantasy points. I

16:38just don't know how we get how the Browns push this to a game state to where we get the cape on Josh Allen.

16:45>> The cape is uh is Stan in the in the wardrobe. It's in the closet. He's not He's not Yeah, the cape is is not going

16:53to be worn this week. Um I don't see how they they It's not just the Browns aren't going to push. It's that the

17:03Browns run defense, which by the season long numbers still looks elite.

17:08>> It's not elite.

17:09>> It hasn't been the last two weeks.

17:10They're 21st in pay allowed per rush, 15th in rushing success rate allowed.

17:14And then the other thing with like run defense, right? Rushing efficiency is one thing. Rushing production is the efficiency plus the volume. And the

17:24Browns stink on offense. Uh Shidor was was terrible again last week, you know, after being promising against the Titans. Um that doesn't help if you're

17:34trying to not have teams run all over you to not be able to put up points. The Bills are all about that. Their identity

17:40is built around the run. This is a runbased offense. This is not a team that's built around uh featuring Josh Allen, which you know I've complained

17:50about endlessly, but it is what it is.

17:52Like this that they are built to feature James Cook. You know, they got the heavy personnel stuff and they're they're running in neutral situations. They're

18:00running they have they've I mean look at look at how they attack the Steelers a few weeks ago, >> right?

18:05>> Right. They had a minus 17% pass rate of expected, minus 29% on first and 10.

18:10They had a 38% pass rate. You know, this is stuff the Seahawks would be pre. So, the Seahawks might be like, "Whoa, guys,

18:16that's a little that's a little conservative." [laughter] You know, now you've got a huge Browns run funnel. Teams are averaging a minus

18:225% pass rate expected against the Browns, 57% pass rate. The run defense is showing cracks. Uh they're not going to push back on offense. Bills are

18:32favored by like 10 points even though they're on the road. Um it's going to be cold. You know, they're going to run the ball. They're gonna run

18:40the ball a bunch and uh they'll probably be pretty effective doing it. I mean, I it's like the thing that's kind of the most frustrating part

18:48about the Bills, right, is that I It's like the nerdiest thing you can do. Like this team that's like winning games and

18:55you're like, "But it's suboptimal.

18:57>> You could be winning by more. Your point, think about your point differential. It could be higher."

19:02>> It's like, "Yeah, shut up. We're winning." You know, and they've dropped games to the Dolphins. I think if they're playing better, they wouldn't be

19:09losing to the Falcons and Dolphins and stuff, but you know, they they beat the Patriots in Foxboro last week. They're going to crush the Browns here. James

19:16Cook's going to go nuts. They're fine.

19:18Like they're their particular formula, I don't think, is the best formula they could have, but there's a lot of different formulas that will work with

19:25Josh Allen, and this is one of them.

19:26This is the one they've picked, and it will work very well against the Browns, and it has the added benefit of avoiding

19:32an elite Browns pass rush. Um, you know, in a lot of ways, this is a smart strategy in this particular matchup, you know. So, uh, uh, I think

19:43James Cooks is is set up to to crush here. I had I had James Cook as the cover boy a couple weeks ago. Um, so I

19:49didn't go back to him here, but I mean, if I I would have had him as the cover boy if I hadn't I didn't want to didn't

19:56want to double dip like, >> you know, three times in two weeks or or two times in three weeks or whatever it

20:01was. But, >> yeah. Um the the problem is outside of Cook, what do you have? Because Allen's probably, as you mentioned, probably limited in

20:10volume and then concade uh miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so he could miss this game and he's obviously

20:20>> Oh, he Okay, so he's pretty interesting.

20:23>> Um the note I had on him, >> the bummer is is like how hurt is he right now, >> right? Well, he plays about half the

20:30routes anyway.

20:31>> Yeah. And he last week though was the first time him and Knox played together where it was even.

20:38>> Yeah. Yeah. 46% round participation last week. But he has on play action.

20:43Concincade leads the Bills with a 31% targets per out run and 4.14 yards per out run. Bills are fourth in play action

20:50rate. Browns are seeing the seventh highest play action rate against. And as part of this run-based offense, I think we'll get plenty of play action. So he's

20:57he's at least, you know, semi-interesting here. Um, but yeah, it's it's kind of a James Cook week.

21:04>> That's that's what it is, man. I mean, and Cook's been awesome the second half of the year. I mean, he's gone over 100

21:09yards, five straight games, total yards, seven of his past eight games since week seven. He actually since they're by, he's number one in the NFL in scrimmage

21:15yards. Um, because they've used him a little bit more as a pass catcher uh the back half of the year than they did the

21:20front half. So, like you said, Browns, they lost him with Elite Collins.

21:23They've allowed RB1 scoring weeks the past two weeks to Tony Pard and DeAndre Swift. So significant significant upgrade here uh in an opponent.

21:35>> Yeah. I mean I think Cook he's he's like a hair worse than like Gibbs and Bejon this week, but I think it you know he's

21:43not going to be maybe as projectable as those guys, but this is like an awesome spot for for James Cook. And he's been

21:50great. He's running back one in rush yards over expected per game, running back five in breakaway yards per game.

21:54like he's been >> all the metrics like stuff right every whatever whatever it is he's been he he's shows up well

22:02>> yeah so I mean yeah you're you're betting on efficiency but you're getting volume here like they're going to feed James Cook in this matchup uh he doesn't

22:12get like the the share of team attempts that that Bejon will probably get um at least if they use him like they they did

22:20last week with kind of Alier in a smaller role Uh but you know and it's kind of it's Jir Gibsey without as much of a target

22:29share, right? So he doesn't quite get to the level of those guys, but this is just a spot where like Cook could easily

22:37score three touchdowns, you know? So I'm I'm very excited about about James Cook.

22:42Not so excited from a baseball perspective where I don't really have much. Um I didn't draft much to begin with and I don't have any left and I'm

22:47going against him in some, you know, some teams that I would like to advance.

22:50So that is what it is.

22:52>> This to be a James. really like this not to be a James Cook week, but it uh it is.

22:57>> Yep. 100%. Yeah. And that's it. We can't trust any of these receivers. You're not doing anything this year.

23:02>> And obviously, you're still you're still starting Josh Allen, but I think it is a week where it's he's like he probably

23:08isn't necessary >> in terms of paying up uh in DFS.

23:14>> No. And there's um there's not a ton of value this week and quarterbacks one of the ways to save value in DFS. So I I

23:21don't think I mean Josh Allen is like very contrarian. I the way that I'm thinking about how to build teams this

23:27week. I mean >> he will be >> he's a Yeah, he's going to be you're like really flipping the build uh to go

23:36to Josh Allen here. There's a number of cheap quarterback options that you can stack.

23:41Um Shir, I'll note, was at 80% ro participation last week, but I think that's going to drop. uh he was at 50%

23:48against the Steelers and and this is going to be much more similar to that game than >> they're [clears throat] chasing points,

23:54>> right?

23:56All right. Look, the Browns side, uh Dylan Samson's going to be out and the Bills, you want to talk about a run

24:02funnel, Bills 57% pass rate against them, minus 6% POE, a 5% shift to the run uh from the typical PR that these

24:11teams have. So, this is a a team a defense where teams are going very conservative and it's affecting the way

24:20teams game plan. Uh, the thing with the Bills too is that we have seen some teams kind of take them headon, right?

24:29The Patriots didn't go super conservative against the Bills. Um, the Bengals passed against them. So, if you have like a legit passing offense, you

24:39can you can kind of look to put up points against the Bills, who aren't great against the pass, but they're worse against the run. If you're a team

24:48that's trying to like hide and limit possessions and kind of trick the Bills into playing overly conservative and like maybe you get lucky with like a

24:56special teams touchdown or something and you can actually upset them, then running the ball like makes a lot of sense as as the weak the weaker you are,

25:05the more sense it makes to just run the ball on the Bills. And the Browns are about as weak as I mean they're not

25:11Raiders weak on offense, but they're pretty weak.

25:14>> So I don't see any reason. and Tommy Reese has been pretty conservative generally since taking over. So I I think this game it just makes sense for

25:22them to to ride quinch Judkins here as much as they can get away with.

25:27>> Yeah, that's the question is how much can they get away with it even against the Bills. Uh because we have seen the

25:31Bills even in some like really bottom end run teams at least hold up and that's kind of what we have here which

25:38you know it's not Judkins's fault. It's just he's in a terrible offensive environment. The offensive line's just been so hurt injured. Uh, I mean, since

25:45week six, he's 27th out of 28 running backs in yards for carry, dead last in yards before contact before carry. Uh,

25:52it's really hurt him in terms of like any type of ceiling. Probably hoping like it's like the 49ers game a couple

25:57weeks ago where they're able to just stick with the run long enough he can accumulate yardage, hopefully catch a couple passes, but maybe get lucky, get

26:03some touchdowns, but it's just kind of him and fan in. Uh, I pulled some stuff for McDermott. McDermott against good against rookie quarterbacks. rookie

26:13quarterbacks against him are three and 11. Uh 10 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.

26:18Uh you know, Shador for like I said, at least he's not Dylan Gabriel, but like also like you get the bad side of that

26:23too is where like last week it's just like he'll just throw you into a hole like into the abyss. Uh whereas like

26:31Gabriel was just boring.

26:32>> It's the same. It's the same. Like you look at the EPA and the success rate and it's the same. It's just that like one

26:37of them it's like a little like if you think about like a pendulum, one of them just like swings like this and one of

26:42them's like that.

26:42>> Yeah. Yeah.

26:43>> So you get a little bit more of the upside with Shador, but the starting points the same. The middle point is the

26:48same.

26:49>> Yeah.

26:49>> We get just more I would say he gives you at least more for like the defense too. Like you feel more confident in

26:55playing Bill's defense this week.

26:56>> Oh yeah. Yeah, you do. [laughter] >> Like you know so that that's where you get the bonus from where Gabriel is like

27:03kind of in that boring range. just like gosh this dude's not even like making it fun like the game fun not even throwing

27:08interceptions or taking turn he's taking sacks >> I know yeah it's like death by a thousand paper cuts but like not the

27:16defense that's dying it's you soul >> yeah you're just internally just crippled >> yeah so if you do have Bill's defense

27:24you feel good about that and then you know Fannon is at least just getting targets like to the point of where the

27:30volume is like you just play the volume you don't even care. It's so much work that he's getting >> and it's it's a tight end, right? And so

27:38you're you're getting a number one wide receiver now. I mean, he's so he has a 23% target share which leads the team.

27:46Uh and remember, this was a backup tight end to start the year. So, >> but Shador is 33%.

27:54>> I mean, that's that's elite stuff.

27:57>> So, he's a high-end tight end one.

28:00>> Uh he would be an elite tight end one in almost any other situation. Where do you think he's How do you think the field's

28:05going to handle him next year? And I know, not that I know this is like we're going to talk about this [ __ ] all

28:09summer, but like I feel like he still might end up being undervalued next year.

28:14>> I don't see how he ends up being like because the the situation is so bad quarterback wise and I don't think they

28:24get the number one pick. Uh the Raiders are probably like they're currently second and they have one less win >> and the Browns beat the Raiders

28:33>> and the Browns, >> right? That's I've forgotten that. And then uh they're also for tradeup purposes like if the Giants or the

28:41Titans get the number one pick and they're they're auctioning it. The Jets have the the picks from the sauce trade and I've heard that the Jets like

28:51Mendozas. So, um, you know, they mean also like I don't know, Cleveland like giving up a bunch of future assets

29:00for another quarterback seems like are you really want to do that again? So, >> yeah.

29:06>> I think the only thing for Fannon that maybe pushes him, he's going to have like the like us like the nerds are

29:12going to like him. the nerds will be backing him, but you're gonna like Fannon will be >> I'm trying to think of like a comp for

29:18him because it's the the situation is going to be rough like quarterback wise.

29:22It's going to be really rough.

29:23>> But it helps too that you know the stuff that happened. There's going to be so much push back on early tight end next

29:29year uh because of the on because the Well, >> yeah, but then you know like people probably say it was circumstantial, you

29:38know, how how it came was so bad.

29:42McBride's McBride's awesome.

29:44>> Yeah, >> McBride will be >> Yeah, he'll be an early second or or first round pick.

29:48>> Yeah. And McBride, like we've talked about too, like he his route participation is like an uncharted land for tight ends, like even historically

29:57because he doesn't come off the field ever.

30:00>> Right. Right. Yeah. I mean, the funny thing, I mean, Bowowers's also, even with like a team that has a 12point implied team total this week,

30:11has been like averaging 14 and a half PPR points a game, like he's been pretty good for, you know, tight end standards,

30:18but it's like, you know, >> in in context, >> in context, >> like this like this, I mean, dude, in context, this like gosh, man, 30 30%

30:25target shares from tight ends. Like, you just don't see not rookie tight ends.

30:29No, it's probably like a little pitsesque, right, where you get like the Ritter.

30:36We're gonna have to go through like the the Mariota Ritter stuff. Um, >> but I mean, there's going to Here's a here's a a hot

30:46take. Someone can steal this on Twitter in in July. You know, you can do the the the guy standing up, you know, uh, at

30:56the meeting meme.

30:57>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. you know, um, you know, Brock Bowers is just Harold Fannon with a higher ADP, you know, that kind of

31:06that kind of take. You're gonna get that, >> right? Because it's like it's they're both going to have horrible quarterback situations and you're kind of just

31:12betting on volume uh as the number one the [clears throat] number one uh receiver on their on their team. But yeah, I mean it's going to be tricky

31:20because like it's you are seeing I don't know he'll probably be like a fifth round pick, something like that.

31:26Fourth, fifth round pick. interesting. I think he'll probably be in my head I was thinking he'll be lower, but we like I

31:31said, we'll see how it goes out. But >> I don't think he's going to be that much lower because you get to a certain point

31:35where like he's just going to outscore the receivers being drafted ahead of him, you know?

31:44>> So, I don't know.

31:44>> We'll be there. We'll be there.

31:46>> I think we'll be in. If I'm If you're thinking he's like a sixth, seventh round pick and I'm thinking fourth,

31:50fifth, that means I'm gonna be drafting him.

31:52>> Yeah.

31:52>> The rookie tight end, man. He's he's the number one wide receiver on his own team. 95% round participation last week

31:58and Jooku's going to be gone.

32:00>> Yep.

32:01>> Let's take him in the second round, dude.

32:03>> Fire it. [laughter] Fire it.

32:07>> Yeah, it's gonna be fun. It's gonna be fun to see what shakes out.

32:10>> It's gonna be bad.

32:11>> I'm excited to see what shakes out though. So, because the rookie tight ends all kind of flash a little bit like

32:16Gadson, Warren, Lovelin's closing strong. So, >> Gadson is an interesting one, too. Yeah, >> because we assume Keenan Allen will be

32:25gone next year. So, >> right.

32:28>> They've kind of been tethered. They've kind of been married like when one guy does well, the other guy's not has not

32:34or played. And so, they've been they've kind of had a a lot of correlation to when one guy's good and one guy's not

32:39been usable.

32:40>> Gatson strikes me as a guy who will probably go like near the double digits.

32:44And >> we're probably if he does, I think we're sleeping on him a little bit like for a rookie tight end to establish himself

32:50because he'll have the big receiver.

32:52>> He won't have the clear target share, but we'll have the offensive environment.

32:55>> Yeah. Yeah. And we'll have got the Yeah.

32:57He's going to be I'm gonna I'm going to be drafting him, too.

33:01>> Yeah.

33:02>> The Chargers in general will probably end up being underpriced based on how that we're going to close the season with them. But

33:08>> yeah.

33:09>> Yeah. Another time. Another time.

33:12>> Well, we're actually not another time.

33:13We're gonna talk about the Chargers right now.

33:15>> Okay, [laughter] let's do it. That's perfect. That's I mean that's a I I wish I was taking credit for that. The the the

33:23>> Yeah, you could have you could have gotten us right into that game.

33:26>> Professional transition there.

33:27>> Yeah, [laughter] quite good. Uh let's talk Chargers's passing game. They have a great matchup here. Uh it's a little spread out. Keenan Allen's getting

33:37targets again. Vlad Manki isn't even though Quinton Johnson was out last week. So, what's up with that? Uh Trey Harris is getting praise from uh Greg

33:46Roman. Uh you know, getting targeted, playing pretty pretty decently. Uh Davis Madak apparently is is uh re-watching his uh his catch that he doesn't think

33:57was a catch every every five minutes, tilting about that. [laughter] Uh he just shared that he's like, "That's the worst call I've seen all year." Um

34:08and yeah, so that the uh the passing offense is kind of spread out uh and potentially low volume now. Uh they've

34:17had over the last three weeks POE's of - 11, - 11, and - 7 and on first and 10 -7, -4, and -7%

34:26pass rates of 44, 58, and 54% over their uh last three games since their week 12 buy.

34:33Uh so that would be the concern for me.

34:34spread out passing game, low volume passing game, run defense that stinks.

34:3929th in uh DVOA, EPA, and success rate the Cowboys. And Quinnon Williams might miss this game with a concussion. So, his presence potentially will not be

34:49helping this run game or run defense, which is uh you know, he's been he's been quite helpful since they got him,

34:54but he's probably out. So, >> they did say he he they did say Quinton Williams is going to play.

35:00>> Oh, they did?

35:01>> Yeah.

35:02I thought I just saw >> and uh >> yeah, Brian Shottimer said it clear, doesn't he?

35:07>> Broen Shimemer said Quinton Williams is tracking positively for Sunday.

35:11>> Okay, >> that's just that was the thing. He was listed as full participant today.

35:16>> Okay. All right.

35:19That's probably that's one that >> Yeah. So, since they acquired Quinnon Williams, teams uh have the highest pass rate over expectation against the

35:28Cowboys. It's again, this is the thing we talk about. It's like become the little theme of our show here these last

35:33couple weeks. They should think about being worse against the run because since they got Quinn Williams >> Yeah. since they got Quinnon Williams,

35:41teams were like, "Oh, well, what if we just attacked you where you suck and like at a higher degree and like the and that's what's happened

35:49to the Cowboys. The Cowboys have turned into a pass funnel since they got Quinn Williams. It's like the worst thing because they still are bad against the

35:55pass. Like they're so bad against the pass. and getting Qu Williams just like threw like accelerant on that and it was

36:01like, "Oh, okay. So, maybe this is what we need for the Chargers because the Chargers since they lost Alt, like you

36:07said, have been extremely uh runheavy or like at least >> with Herbert's hand >> and Herbert's hand made it >> double whammy.

36:17>> Yeah.

36:18>> So, maybe this is like Quinnon Williams actually being here is what we need to get the kind of this thing flowing.

36:26I mean, I just don't know if I trust the Chargers, right?

36:30>> How could you?

36:31>> Yeah. And and [clears throat] I get I get why they're doing what they're doing. You know, they're trying to protect Herbert, although not enough to

36:37like sit him, [laughter] but you know, this is a playoff team.

36:42They're trying to make the playoffs. So, how do we make the playoffs and also not get our quarterback killed when we don't

36:48have an offensive line and he has a broken hand? You run the ball. So, I don't know. I mean, like, did they

36:55attack the the Raiders and the Eagles and the Chiefs? Cuz that's how you attack the like the Chief the book on

37:02the Chiefs is not to run the ball, but they did.

37:07>> Yeah. But also like those offenses >> aren't good enough to push the Chargers where this is probably an opponent over

37:16this stretch.

37:16>> So sad stuff. You're saying the Chiefs off like Well, you can the Chiefs >> the Chiefs and the Eagles, right? and

37:22the Eagles. Like >> Eagles. Yeah, >> these are two teams that uh the especially structurally the way the Chargers play defense, we're going to

37:30show I remember going into the Eagles game kind of like writing it when I wrote it up. I was like, oh my gosh,

37:34it's just negative bullet point after negative bullet point on Jaylen Herz in this game. Like to the point where it's like man like how do you sit him? But

37:41like you probably should have and I wish I would have been more bullish on that.

37:44But like even before that like they they face like the Steelers. So like we need what we need is is hot Dak here. We need

37:51hot dak in this game.

37:54>> Hot deck.

37:56>> But describe what hot Dak is going to be. What does that mean?

37:59>> Like we need Thanksgiving Dak in uh equals Dak. Uh because Dak the last two weeks uh or the LA on Sunday night like

38:08was just kind of okay Dak. We need Thanksgiving >> D. He was worse than okay Dak.

38:13>> Yeah. We need we need Thanksgiving Dak.

38:17We need Eagles Dak. That's what we need in this game. We need him.

38:20>> One thing I noticed about Dak against the Vikings, and I wasn't sure if this was bullish or bearish, but I'm guessing

38:26it's bearish given that they lost is for the the like pregame interview, like they're on the sidelines and they're they you know, the reporter comes over

38:35and she's asking him, you know, what specifically about the receivers, right?

38:39But the important thing is that Dak was like full like he was the sweatiest guy, you know? He was he was like just

38:47completed like an hourong hit workout, you know, like I guess from pregame warm-ups >> him doing that hip that hip turn.

38:54>> How are you this sweaty, dude?

38:57I was like running down his face.

39:00>> I was like, "Oh no, this I don't know if that's good. You seem exhausted." So, >> but that's what we need. your

39:0740-year-old dad. So maybe maybe just maybe he can sweat and not and not exhaust himself. I assume given he's a professional athlete,

39:16>> but uh didn't didn't seem great.

39:20>> Yeah, that's so that's I don't want him hot in that sense. I don't want him to really uh >> we need [laughter] body temperature

39:26cool.

39:27>> Yeah, keep the body temperature lower.

39:31I I wonder like is this the right type of offense to to beat this defense? I mean, it's like, hey, let's keep

39:38everything in front of us. Let's let's put a cap on stuff. No big plays, no explosives. Um, they double team at a

39:45high rate.

39:46>> I mean, they have the pieces. It's just >> they play a ton of zone >> up and down.

39:50>> I want I want the the Cowboys against like a I mean, they get the Jets, right?

39:55Like, you know, a team that plays a bunch of man and sucks at man. That's what I want the Cowboys against. This

40:01doesn't seem like a great matchup for the Cowboys in that way.

40:05No, I mean, not on paper, but it it's one of those ones where you just That's what we need to have happen, though. We

40:10need the We need this passing game to be hot. That That's how we push Herbert and the Chargers to be more adventurous.

40:17>> Agreed. Agreed. Um and I do think like Dak's been really good this year generally. I mean, he's been a little

40:24bit volatile, but he's the ceiling has been really high. Um >> and at home, at home especially.

40:31>> Yeah. So, I have a little bit of hope here as well. It's just that on paper when I was writing this up I was like h

40:39this doesn't seem like a blowup spot but like you know the zone splits for Lamb and Pickins much better against man than

40:46zone but like Lamb and Pickins both have a 23% targets per run against zone which is pretty good and uh 2.32 yards per run

40:53for Lamb and 2.17 for Pickkins which is good. They're they're just both awesome against man. So >> Right. Which >> and the Chargers don't play man.

41:02>> Yeah.

41:02>> Yeah. which is what you expect from front end receivers, >> right? So, I I do think that the the Cal

41:10like this doesn't it's not like an easy, you know, layup type of um spike week spot for the Cowboys, but I think they

41:17can overcome a difficult matchup here.

41:20Uh, but if the Chargers go run heavy against them, which maybe they won't with Williams in, but maybe they will because they don't have an offensive

41:29line and their quarterback's hand is broken, that would definitely hurt the Cowboy side of this. And I could see I could see a scenario where the Cowboys

41:37actually are leaning on the run. Um, the Chargers are worse against the run than the pass.

41:42>> So, you know, if if they don't get hot Dak, maybe they just uh maybe they just pound the rock. Yeah. And if we did not

41:51hot deck, it's just going to be Yeah. a bunch of Javvante Williams inefficient t uh rushing attempts that stack up probably. Right. But

42:00>> Right.

42:01>> But yeah, that's our path. If you're if you're hoping for the matchup to kind of drive Herbert having a higher ceiling

42:07than he's shown, post all Vlad any of these other Chargers pass catchers, we need them to kind of probably be pushed

42:14to it. But at least this isn't an offense I would say is more capable than recent weeks, >> which is a bummer to say, but

42:23>> it is a bummer to say. Uh, and speaking of Reeves, you're the transitions are incredible right now. Let's go to the

42:31Chiefs who are taking on the Titans without Patrick Mahomes. Uh, gut punch for them and for all of us. Mahomes got

42:41hurt last week. Uh they'll also be without Rasheed Rice. Uh I don't know if that's official, but very likely with the concussion

42:48>> that was he was a day behind too.

42:52>> Yeah. Right. Um >> he went to protocol a day late.

42:57>> Day late. Yeah.

43:00So yeah, this is a um >> Taekwon. I don't know if that matters, but just a note.

43:06>> Probably probably not.

43:08>> Yeah.

43:08>> Oh, they ruled him out one exactly one minute ago. rolled out Rashid Rice so we don't have to do it. Uh here's the whole

43:14list of guys they rolled out too because remember we are in uncharted territory at the Chiefs here because they've never been out of it. Like you know that's the

43:21thing is that are they going to start sitting guys that are hurt and are they going to play into these young guys that

43:25they got but Trent McDuffy also rolled out. He didn't play last week either but uh Joan Taylor out, Leo Chanel out,

43:32Jaylen Moore out, Taekwon Thornton out, Jake Brennan out. So like they're >> so so the tackle situation is getting

43:41dicey. Uh they're now down uh Essa I think it's Essa Ple.

43:47>> Yeah. Well said Jaylen Morris out. So the top three guys are out.

43:53>> I think the top four guys are out.

43:55>> Yeah cuz we're counting Jane Morris too, right?

43:57>> Yeah.

43:58>> So they're down >> Yeah. Oh four. They're down to tackles five and six.

44:02>> Yeah.

44:04I might have miscounted because I think I said six and seven on the walkthrough, but I might have miscounted. Oh, but

44:08they're down they're down a bunch of tackles.

44:10>> Yeah, it's also because Simmons and Morris on IR, >> right?

44:14>> And then Taylor and Moore are out now.

44:16So that's four. Either way, we're in the bag.

44:20>> We're Yeah. And Pley's been okay. So they might be like better off than you would think, but it's still like pretty

44:28rough to be down this many tackles um >> for anybody. for anybody. Uh yeah, Simmons, Moore, Morris, and Taylor.

44:39>> Yeah, >> I think I counted more twice in Am I right? But uh yeah, it's uh it's not great. I'm not even sure who

44:48the other tackle will be besides Ple. Uh they might like kick a guard out there.

44:53I don't know.

44:55So, that's not good. Um Titans actually have an okay pass rush. Mhm.

45:01>> Uh they've got Jeffrey Simmons who's who's really good interior. I He's he's more of a he's a dtackle, not an edge.

45:08So, you know, I guess if you're going to be out four linemen, you'd want them to be tackles, but it's not good. Um and

45:17then you got Gardner Mchu. I compared Mchu to Tangaboa because they have Garder Mchu's career efficiency is like right overlapping with where Tangalo

45:26has been this season.

45:29And I basically was like, look, Mchu is a good backup quarterback like and so is

45:37so is Tua now. So it's not like we are moving to uh a Brady Cook situation, right? This

45:47isn't the worst type of, you know, efficiency that you can expect that in the in the it can always get worse NFL.

45:55I actually feel okay about what we're going to get from Mchu here.

45:59>> Uh obviously it's a massive downgrade from Patrick Mahomes, but that's because Mahomes is elite. Even this year, he's been one of the most efficient

46:06quarterbacks in the league. He just hasn't been as good as Mahomes usually is. Uh so so it is a huge huge

46:12downgrade, but I don't think it's like a bottom falls out from the offense. They can't move the ball against the Titans

46:18type of situation. Although you do have the offensive line issues. So overall, I mean, on one, like I'm kind of torn here

46:26because you have Xavier Worthy at 4,400 on DraftKings. You've got Travis Kelce, I believe, 4,700.

46:33>> Yep.

46:33>> 47.

46:34>> And you've got Gardenner Mchu who was like 45.

46:37>> Yep.

46:38>> So you have this like really cheap stackable probably high volume offense >> and Hollywood 39. I think Hollywood's 39 >> and he and he's going to be playing a

46:49bunch now. So on the one hand I'm like yeah this is like really a cheap stack um in a week where we could use the value against a

47:00pass funnel.

47:02>> Yeah that's the test pass funnel.

47:05>> They're the number one pass funnel in the NFL again another team that should be thinking about not being so good

47:11against the run. We talked about Pury last week and like Ricky Pieraw and like you know Perty stacks I played a bunch

47:15of them uh got there. They've allowed eight QB1 scores in a row. This is the test, right? like can another guy get

47:21there because it's been like Shadur Sanders has gotten there, Davis Mills, uh because they're they just force teams to throw against them and like Andy Reid

47:29is going to throw. I still think even with this group because who are they going to run the ball with like who like

47:36>> they used PCO last week and you know didn't go >> that's the one wild card is do if you're going to play like Hollywood or

47:42something is do we see them like just say like hey we have three weeks to like Jaylen Royals go do something uh

47:48Brashard Smith do like we'll just see uh but they're not going to run the ball regardless. I don't know if they will

47:54either, but it's just ex just I'm just like saying hypothetically. We've never seen them in this spot, so I don't know

47:59what they'll do. Uh, but they're not going to run regardless. Like, whoever they do hand the ball off to with this

48:05offensive line in this group, like, who are you bullish on to say even if they did hand the ball off 20 times this

48:10player, you'd be like, "Yeah, that'll be effective here." There's nobody, >> right? Yeah. Yeah. And the Titans, so the they opponents only have a 60% pass

48:19rate against them because they stink, but 3% pass rate over expected, 2% shift to the pass. So they are the the path of

48:26least resistance against the Titans is through the air. Like when you're beating the Titans, you're going to put up points generally with a pass first

48:31approach and then later you can run the ball on them so you can you can go home a little little earlier. Uh Titans are

48:38terrible against the pass. 29th in passing DVOA, 28th in EPA, 28th in success rate. So I I think I it's Andy

48:44Reid like I didn't have, you know, there's no sample to go to of like, well, when Mahomes missed four games or

48:50what because Mahomes has been very healthy. So >> yeah, we had that Matt Moore stretch uh when he had the knee.

48:56>> Yeah. Yeah.

48:57>> That's why that's why he'll never see again.

48:59>> Matter too, like you know.

49:03>> Yeah. It's that's what makes it a little tricky. But I think that you'll get a lot of >> Yeah, you're going to get a lot of drop

49:08backs I think from Mchu. Um, and that's >> and that's what I think makes Worthy uh in play at his cost and startable in

49:16your manage leagues too. Again, this stuff is with Mahomes, so you always have to grain salt this, but when Rice was off the field, I mean, Worthy had uh

49:24was target on 22% of his routes, uh, compared to 15% of his routes, the snaps, the routes he's run with Rice on

49:30the field. So, you get a pretty sizable bump here. uh maybe potential less volume, but uh uh like or less uh

49:38efficient quarterback play, but the volume should be fine, I still think.

49:41And then they've been just crushed by wide receivers. Remember the Titans?

49:45It's not even that they're bad against the pass, they have two remaining players from their pre like their week one roster and their entire secondary,

49:53not cornerbacks, their entire secondary.

49:56>> Wow.

49:56>> So like they're just in they've just been playing guys that just probably wouldn't they didn't expect to play at all this year. And that's why they're

50:03getting smoked. Again, another T like be worse against the run. Just let us.

50:08Since week nine, the Titans have allowed 171 yards per game to wide receivers.

50:13That's 29th in the NFL. 1.3 touchdowns per game. That's 28th. They have allowed uh 48.1 PPR points per game to wide

50:21receivers is 29th over that stretch. And tight ends equally overlap. 22.4 PPR points a game. The tight ends over that span. It's 27th um over that. So like

50:30yeah, I think Kelsey still has some stuff to like track down in terms of record. He's chasing, I believe, Jason Whitten for second all time in yardage.

50:37Uh he's 99 yards short. So that's still something I think they'll get him >> uh over these two weeks or three weeks.

50:46>> He had some comment about Mahomes coming back and he's like >> to the Chiefs >> something that you would expect a guy

50:52like Kelsey who's like overly emotional anyways to like say some [ __ ] in the moment that would look bad. Uh, I think

50:59they'll eva he still evaluate some stuff and it's the first time the Chiefs like anything you saw Chris Jones and he

51:04didn't even know they were out of the playoffs and when they told him he was you saw like his whole transition like

51:09what like kind of like it looked like he was going to cry like and I get it man like like they haven't been in this spot

51:15none of these guys. So you expect him in the moment to be emotional and say especially guy Kelsey like to say some

51:19stuff maybe he >> when you ask him maybe a weeks after he's like oh you know I would I would have said something different.

51:27>> That's fair. Um I do think he retires though. So >> probably I mean he he probably does but >> but the you know it's a good like what's

51:36what are these games but he's not going to quit Travis >> Kelsey. He's not going to quit these last three games.

51:41>> No I think it's the opposite. I think you're you're trying to like >> pad the stats a little bit. Um because

51:47these might be your last your last games. I kind of like Kelsey here.

51:51That's the one piece because it's like what can Mshu do? We've seen it >> can throw short a bunch.

51:57>> Yeah, >> that's why I was going to be really bullish on Rice. I because I had this game done before the Rice concussion

52:04>> because we saw last year when Devonte Ams got traded, Mchu wasn't a good quarterback, but Jacobe Myers and Brock Bowers were good fantasy plays. And in

52:122023, Michael Pitman was a really good fantasy play. So these guys, that's what makes the Worthy stuff probably the most like adventurous is because

52:22>> you know where does Worthy is there a clear overlap? But we saw Worthy when Rice was out. He gets he will get like

52:28that slot usage and he'll he moonlights around the formation.

52:32>> He does. Yeah. I I prefer Kelsey to Worthy, but you can see how Worthy gets there.

52:37>> Yeah.

52:37>> Um and and he's actually cheaper than Kelsey on DraftKings. So, >> but he plays a position where you're trying to squeeze a little bit of value

52:44out of this week because we don't even have a lot of like the sub 4K guys this week now that Quinton Johnson's going to

52:50be back. Um >> Yep.

52:55on the Titans side. Um, what's what is there to say? I mean, Ward just hasn't flashed anything in terms of like weekly ceiling. He's

53:04peaked 61st percentile in EPA per play, which was against the Seahawks, actually, which is which kind of interesting. But, um, he was okay last.

53:12>> He ran a lot that game, too. That's like the one game he ran a lot.

53:17>> Yeah. And the thing like, you know, for Ward, um, he's he doesn't have any weapons, you know, so I will

53:27>> I felt so bad for him last week. He made that he made three awesome plays in that game. The first was the Gunner Helm

53:32touchdown, the Jeffrey Simmons touchdown. He made an awesome play to DK and it just hit DK right in the chest and he dropped it and it's just like,

53:40dude, he just has no >> Yeah, the situation is definitely bad.

53:44But his if I was like going to you know look at like where is Cam Ward going to excel I would I would not want him going

53:54against Steve Spagnolo.

53:57>> No.

53:57>> Uh because his whole deal is that um not his whole deal but a big part of the problem is that he has a really high

54:02pressure to sack rate. Uh and he's not particularly uh aggressive. He has just a 7% deep pass rate which matches Tuatanga.

54:12So, you're getting kind of like shador Sandersy like like play playtoplay floor. Um, >> and I don't know if people don't want to

54:21hear that, but he is literally when you look at the way he plays and runs around, he is kind of just like top

54:27shelf Shador Sanders.

54:29>> Yeah, it's and and Shador's a little different because Shidor actually avoids sacks when pressured. Um, but he takes on just an absurd amount of pressure.

54:38>> Maybe not even top shelf. Maybe he's like uh >> uh Joseé Quervo to uh El Toro. Uh Shidor Sanders,

54:49>> you eat the worm with Shidor Sanders.

54:52>> Shidor Sanders is real. He's He's like, "What kind of tequila? I don't care."

54:57>> But you know, you know. [clears throat] >> Yeah. I'm going to regret this. Regrets are going to be made tomorrow.

55:03>> Yeah. Cam Ward is you name a brand so they don't give you rail. That's what it is. It's not top shelf.

55:10>> Okay.

55:11>> Yeah, exactly.

55:12>> What's the blue bottle? You know, that's not that. It's not the 200.

55:15>> Oh, yeah. He's not Kas Aul. Like, he's definitely You're not ringing the bell.

55:18You're not ringing the bell at all.

55:20>> You're not.

55:21>> That's some good stuff. I don't know who that is, but it's not Kimart.

55:28Um, but you know, it's it's kind of like this is just a really tough spot for I I think it's fine to make excuses for for

55:37award in in some ways, but this is all >> you're you're not bullish in this game is a 37 point total. What are you like

55:43rough, man?

55:44>> Like you're not you're not bullish on any Chief here. You might just chase the dragon, continue with Tony Pard because

55:50maybe the game script now doesn't get away. Like you're just >> And that's what the Titans are doing.

55:56The Titans have 46% pass rate that was 14% below expected two weeks ago uh in a win and they had a minus 13% against the

56:0649ers last week. So like they are trying to just build this game build the the offense around the run now. So uh yeah,

56:15I think that's what they're going to do.

56:16So why why shouldn't we follow?

56:18>> Yeah, it's a bummer because the I actually think the tight ends are playing the best of this offense, but they just cannibalize each other. Both

56:24guys are pretty efficient in terms of their opportunities. It's just that they're playing both guys and that's that's >> I think Gunner Helm is is pretty

56:32interesting. I would like to see more Gunner Helm.

56:34>> I would like them to play more is the problem.

56:36>> 34% round participation last week. He's he's he's unplayable at this level.

56:40>> Yeah, but his like the underlying stuff looks good. It's just he's not playing enough. And when you're and you're not

56:46playing enough in a bad offense, >> [ __ ] [clears throat] Targets per outr run since week seven for Gunner helm 33 16 14 18 32 32 17 and

56:5640%.

57:00>> Solid.

57:01>> What if >> Hey, I don't know if you know this, but uh your head coach was fired. This is a

57:06completely lost year. You might end up with the number one pick for the second year in a row. Maybe play a rookie tight

57:11end. Just an idea. Although I guess you have to bench maybe your rookie wide receivers to get him on the field, but

57:18do it. I mean, they're playing Van Jefferson. Like, >> Van Jefferson's your best receiver.

57:25>> Yeah, there's just it is what it is.

57:29>> All right. I just mentioned to a tongue of Aaloa as a whole. We're just >> Look at us. We're We're It took us seven

57:3716 weeks, but we're professionals like just rolling this thing.

57:42>> Just turning it in. Look at the setups transitions like god dude that the editing on this is smooth [laughter] and Wes Anderson [ __ ] just like bleeding

57:55in like [laughter] >> I know I can't believe how well this has gone completely unplanned. This is just just happens to be the order I wrote

58:03these games up in the walker. Um all right so two is gone. Yours is in. How are you feeling about the the Quinners

58:12era?

58:14for at least one week. I'm pro I think I'm more optimistic than the field. Uh the stuff I've been on and talked to

58:20people uh you know, everyone seems like a disaster. This game dropped one point in the as a total. So that's just I mean

58:28>> you know I'm not in charge of of the betting markets. If I get to wave my magic wand, it would have been like

58:34three.

58:36>> Well, I also think it's a testament to how bad Tua has been. But >> yeah. Well, just wait. Yeah, I still I

58:43still think yours though in this particular spot is I don't know like intriguing like you're going to play yours, but I think in terms of

58:50functionality for what Miami is going to set out to do, they're they might be able to get away with it uh here. So

58:56yours in general, I just want to see what anyway anyways what he looks like because obviously he played the whole season last year with that oblique

59:02injury and it did impact like everything he did like ADOT dropped but all the handholding that Sarkc did with him last

59:10year like can happen here. That's what I think is is interesting. So last year he had the lowest rate of passes that came

59:18without play action, motion or screens like the handholdy stuff. Uh 16.4% of his passes. 28% came at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in

59:26this draft class. What do you think Mike McDaniel's gonna do? Like they just gonna do the same stuff like all the

59:33same stuff. So, and yours as a prospect like his bugaboo was you want to pressure him and you want to blitz him.

59:41Bengals don't do any of that or pressure a quarterback. They don't blitz. So, I feel like it could be just a game plan

59:47where it is more to adjacent or what he did in Texas and they're going to be able to get away with it uh to a degree

59:54uh pending uh you know how good their defensive plays and where the state of the game script is in. So, if you had if

60:00you had to start one guy for his first start at home against one of the worst defenses in the NFL like this this like

60:06objectively a spot to where at least I'll come in and take the glass half full approach.

60:12>> Yeah, you're right. If if if we're going to start Quinn Yurs in his first game, it's nice that it's at home and against

60:18the Bengals defense. I still don't want to do it though because this dude, like it's not just that he was a bad college

60:26quarterback, which he which he really was.

60:29>> He was literally he was a part of other people's prospect profile. Like you'd be like, "Oh yeah, >> well you got to keep in mind that he

60:39played with Quinners. So basically, don't pay attention to his stats, which aren't that great. You know, like Xavier Worthy can't catch deep balls, but

60:47actually it's Quinn Quinners uh can't throw a deep ball. So, so don't worry, Xavier Worthy will be okay.

60:54>> Um now, Adai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy and Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond.

60:59>> Although, did he get Matthew Golden drafted?

61:03>> Yeah, right. So maybe [laughter] it's I guess we could leave live in a world where we all owe Quint apology because

61:09these receivers are all kind of plopping except AD Mitchell is actually maybe awesome. I don't know. But [laughter] but like there could maybe we got this

61:19like really wrong. But I do think it's important to remember that yours was used as an excuse for like why these

61:26receivers weren't producing because he was he was that bad. Um, his best season in QBR is below guys like Sam Howell,

61:34Riley Leonard, Bailey Zappy, among, you know, a million others. I cherrypicked those guys for for a fact, but but they were pretty close to him. Um, so,

61:46you know, and then you look at his style of play. He's conservative, weak deep ball, poor playmaking resume, as you mentioned. He's, you know, kind of just

61:55doing a bunch of handholding stuff. So, he's like a terrible bet to to generate points for himself generally. Uh, you know, matchup aside,

62:03>> if you look at his um I don't think it's me like get talking myself into playing Quinn. Yours is more like

62:11>> can the rest of this be okay? Can the rest of this still be okay and functional?

62:15>> His comps were for me Gino Smith, Trevor Simeon, Cody Kesler, Garrett Grayson, and Brandon Allen. But Smith is like, "Okay, you know, that's you don't hate

62:26that." Um, and then but the other thing that he so he was pretty bad throwing to the splash zone 10 plus yards and over

62:34the middle of the field, which I started writing about because the Dolphins offense was just spamming targets there to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd. Uh, and

62:43that's like was generating absurd efficiency to Tyreek Hill with these targets. You look at Jaylen Wadd this year, he's 99th percentile in splash

62:51zone target rate. This is still a core part of what the Dolphins are doing, including to Darren Waller as well. Um,

63:00he's 100th percentile among tight ends with splash zone targets and actually has a higher rate than Jaylen Waddles, so he might actually lead all players in

63:10splash zone target rate. So, this is like a still a a staple of the McDaniel offense, and I don't think it's

63:16something that yours is very good at.

63:18Uh, so my thing with yours is if if this works, I just don't see how Devon Achan doesn't isn't a huge part of it. like if

63:28if yours gets there, which I do admit is a pretty pretty decent chance by of the bar of like a $4,000 DraftKings

63:39quarterback. Like there's a decent chance he's pretty good play this week, but how does it not involve a Chan?

63:45Because it's got to be a bunch of screens and dump offs. Like I don't think he I just do not trust you even

63:50against the Bengals to like sit back and and like read out stuff over the middle of the field, right? Well, that that's

63:56where I think this works though is because probably I believe they're still be able to run the ball and they're that

64:01marriage that comp that compliment play style is still going to be there and uh we he had a guy like this the a really

64:09poor man's version in Jaden Blue that literally led college football last year as a running back and in snaps played in

64:17the slot and out wide too. So I don't think they have to change a lot of what they want to do here in this matchup. So

64:24I I think you're just going to see a ton of real run game pass rate still below expectation for them while they can

64:30unless unless there's like yours has a turnover early in the game. Bengals are cooking and then we're in hellscape, right? But I think they want to run the

64:40football here against the Bengals and the Bengals will obviously facilitate that while the game script allows it.

64:46if the Bengals cooking is is kind of a key part of this um you know changing the way that the Dolphins do stuff

64:54because if the Bengals get going then that might push the the Dolphins to the air which is not where they want to be.

65:01They've been really runheavy. Um last five weeks pass rates over expected of - 10% - 10 -4 - 11 -3 and on first

65:10and 10 - 20 -4 -12 - 17 and -12%.

65:14They've really shifted to a runbased team. They have now for the season a minus 5% pass rate of expected and minus

65:216% on first and 10. They're overlapping with the car with the uh with the Falcons with the Bears. Uh they're right

65:31near the Panthers in terms of um their approach and they're not a good team. So this is kind of like stubbornness,

65:37hiding the ball, you know, uh not really like running from a position of strength, right? They're not the Rams and the Seahawks or the Bills or the

65:44Packers or the Eagles even. Like this is um this is them stubbornly running the ball, refusing to pass the ball. You

65:52know, they just bench their quarterback.

65:54You you get why. But uh you could see them kind of continue to run the ball even if the Bengals push back, but

66:00obviously it's going to raise their expected pass rate if the Bengals start putting up points against them. So what what's your thoughts on the Bengals

66:07offense and their chances to push the Dolphins here? If T. Higgins plays, I'm I'm pretty bullish on them having success. Uh, we'll see. I mean, I think

66:16a lot of us looking from the outside in think it would be pretty crazy that they played T. Higgins at this point, but it

66:21sounds like he has he has a chance to play. He was a full practice today. He's had been practicing the last two weeks.

66:28Um, so if he plays I I mean, I talked about it last week, too. Uh, we have a two years running now. Like when T.

66:34Higgins does not play, this offense is not efficient. It just isn't. And that happened again last week and it was efficient when Higgins played the, you

66:43know, against the Bills. So if he's back, especially against this Dolphins team that just allowed Aaron Rogers to have his best completion rate since 2014

66:51that got a hall pass with Brady Cook the week prior, but the week before that Tyler Shuck was efficient against them.

66:56We saw Marcus Mariota over the past month have a QB1 scoring week against them. So if Tegan is back, I think the

67:01Bengals are going to be able to throw on the Dolphins. So that that is is the is the wild card here for terms of pushing

67:09Achan out because Achan I want to play at low ownership because the field wants to play Bejan and they want to play

67:15Gibbs for good reasons but like this is Devin Aan against the Bengals and like he's if he's gonna be single digit like

67:23sub 10% man >> and yeah and like it feels to like a tremendous spot man

67:33>> it's a pretty good spot.

67:35It just depends. Yeah. If they if they push them out though, if like the Bengals are throwing all over the Dolphins, then

67:42>> and I had um I had a sweat to get a a baseball mania team through that required Han and Wadd

67:49to be quiet. Um Han had to score less than 17.2 half point PPR points, which was it was close. I I didn't I didn't

67:58get through, but I think I got through by like like half a point or something.

68:02And just there's something about when you're anti-sweetting a player, right?

68:07You're you're like just please don't do anything and you have to like watch that player. You do come away appreciating the really good ones when you when all

68:17you're just like please don't touch the ball and he's like running >> he's running you're like oh it's good like they're dropping back and two is

68:24looking downfield and you're like no is is running a crossing route and he's getting the ball now he's got yak he's

68:31just he's incredible man is just you know a top tier talent so I do think he can over like it's gonna be somewhat

68:41because he just gets peppered with targets and with screens and stuff and and maybe Wadd gets in on that too a

68:47little bit, some wide receiver screens, but I so much of this has to be built around Devon Achan and we're seeing this

68:53this offense already do that. They're already shifting to be more about Achan and not in a way where they're just more

69:01about the run game. Like they're specifically more about Achan. He's this was supposed to be like a 188 pound scatback. This isn't supposed to be a

69:10workhorse runner, but that he is. He's a workhorse runner. So, I I like that take a lot. Um, yours definitely, you can, you know, I'm

69:18pretty bearish on yours as a as a prospect. So, some of that bearishness is maybe coloring my my agent's uh views, but I think

69:25>> well and remember too, >> if anyone gets there, it's him.

69:28>> But remember, Achan also people will glom on to the previous nona splits, right? Like anytime two has missed, a chance in bad. I will argue he's been in

69:36a different role this year than some of those previous years, but uh I get it. I understand. I just >> give me give me yours over Zach Wilson

69:44all day for a champ.

69:45>> Well, there's a reason why they're playing him. Obviously, they now that they're out of it, they they just have to see, right? They just have to take a

69:51peek >> and see what it looks like. I just look at this this potential matchup and saying if the Miami Dolphins want to

69:57play a certain play style with a guy in his first career start like this they like this is probably an objective spot

70:04for the them to be in a lane to where like it probably can happen. I mean this 47% of Han's runs are outside zone runs.

70:12The fourth highest rate in the league.

70:13Bengals are allowing six yards per carry on outside zone. We talk about like Trey Hendendrickson's not coming back.

70:18There's no pass rush here. Um they also are dead last in receiving points allowed to running backs this year. So we have that going for us. I just like

70:27man if the field is like this scared of playing him and we know this guy just has an immense ceiling. This is when I

70:34look at this slate in general because you know in your season long stuff you're just playing AJ like you got him

70:37like course >> when uh I'm thinking about this slate in general you when you're playing like running backs on this slate they have to

70:44they have to have to have to have like 25 plus point upside uh in this slate unless it's like you're playing like a

70:51punt to facilitate like getting a a really highend wide receiver because Jir Gibbs and Bejian Robinson are going to be popular and they have that outcome in

70:59their range. So like we don't have >> they have that outcome almost double that outcome in their range. I mean they

71:05>> and they're going to be played and that and and them being played is why you have to yeah >> take guys like James Cook and and Achan

71:14uh when they're >> they're both going to be played at a very high rate.

71:16>> Correct. Uh, so Achan to me like particularly stands out in the way the slate's going to be played as someone I

71:23I want to incorporate into into into my play because you get the Bejian game where like just Al Alier scores two

71:30dumbass touchdowns or you just have the thing where Gibbs doesn't go crazy like this is where you're getting leverage, you know? So that I think he's a huge

71:39leverage point on this slate. Um, and he could bust. Ian's been doing the uh the the ping pong weeks with he's been

71:46noting that Gibbs scores either three touchdowns or >> it's a it's a three touchdown week, dude.

71:51>> And we'll get to that. We'll get to them. But like yeah, you got to be scared. I mean, dude, last week we

71:57talked about fading Gibbs and fading CMC and it being like completely just terrifying. And it is like it is. But like it's terrifying to play a running

72:05back attached to Quinn. I get it. But like this is a guy that has the same type of ceiling as the really popular

72:11plays and he's gonna be a third of the ownership of those guys. Like this is how you have to play DFS.

72:17>> Just the rules.

72:20>> It's it's the rules.

72:22>> It's just the rules.

72:24>> Yeah. Him and Cook I think are the two guys where it's like >> I don't think you have to play yours.

72:30Like I think objectively I'd much rather play >> you have a tight quarterback pool. Are you >> Yeah. Do you envision him being a part

72:36of that?

72:37>> I don't think so. I didn't like the guys I wrote up and I don't think so. I think I would rather play Mchu at 45 than

72:44yours at four.

72:45>> I think so too.

72:46>> But I will say there's a version of this game where I was out with Hyo that we did build a lineup that was yours,

72:54Achan, Waller, Jamar Chase, and you can also get one of the other big running backs your flavor of choice whether it

73:01be Gibbs or Bejian.

73:05Yeah, I don't even know. Like I think it's just an H like to me I'm just like yeah HN gets there because he's he just

73:13becomes the offense and you know that's if you're an offense in one man that that's pretty good.

73:21>> Like I'm not playing Wadd uh and I'm only I only still would entertain Waller because he's so cheap. Like he's 3500.

73:29Like at 3500, dude, you could catch you catch a touchdown, you might be you might be all right. And let alone if you actually

73:37have a good game.

73:38>> For sure.

73:40>> On the side, >> I would play Wadd. [snorts] >> I I don't I would not play Wadd either.

73:44Um >> even in manage leagues, how what's the cut off for you like for Wadd? Like >> like are you playing Lad, Manki, or

73:53Wadd? You're playing Lad, right?

73:54>> I'm playing No, I'm playing I think I'm playing Wadd. overlap.

74:01>> I don't know, man. Lad's buming me out.

74:03>> Sure, [laughter] sure. Sure he is.

74:06>> Let's see. Do I have I have waddle over lad? Yeah.

74:12>> So, you're in on yours. You're going to double stack him.

74:14>> No, I'm going to lower him right now.

74:17>> Yeah, you don't have to.

74:18>> No, I am double stack.

74:20>> It's buming me out to be in on Waddle.

74:23Uh because like >> because with with Tua Wadd already was like kind of basically like did he score a touchdown this week? Then he was okay

74:32and then if he didn't you got nothing.

74:36>> Yeah, I know. It's you think you think he would have maybe been Wadd's been like a a good pick because Tyreek got hit hurt

74:46but not as good as you would have thought.

74:48>> No, it's the environment. It's they they're they're so limited in what they've done offensively and Tu is you just hasn't facilitated anything because

74:56the per uh target per route stuff for Wadd is good. Uh >> it's just they're not throwing at all.

75:06>> There's so many receivers where I just like like Nico Collins, you know, it's just like, hey, what if we just took you

75:10and put you on an offense that throws because the per route stuff is >> right.

75:15>> There's some good per route receivers.

75:16I'd like to see >> the first six games after the Tyreek injury, Wadd had 82 or more yards in five of those first six games and since

75:25then 52 40 50 26 >> sadness >> and he should have got there right like

75:36uh the the process for Wadd was always kind of there like if Tyreek is volatile you know gets traded the contingency it

75:45happened in terms of target share and area yard share and yards per out run.

75:49It just they caved in like they were like we're not going to throw this our we don't trust our quarterback.

75:56>> Yeah. I mean the quarterback situation is so tough here and you saw the report uh before they they decided to go with

76:03with yours, right?

76:04>> Mhm.

76:04>> They they called Dan Marino.

76:09>> They dan you come back be awesome [laughter] dude. To be fair, I guarantee you Dan's arm strength is better than what Phil

76:18Rivers was throwing on Sunday. And Phil never had the greatest arm strength as Apex, but boy, that thing was Do you

76:24remember uh you're a little younger than me, but OG Techmobile, the quarterback was literally just uh decided by arm strength. So like the worst quarterback

76:34rating you had, the ball would loop like it would be like woo like like a hot air balloon. So if you

76:38had like Scott Zolak, if like you tried to throw like Scott, like the ball would just be like woo. It take forever. But

76:44Marino was like the techn [laughter] strike.

76:48>> Phil was throwing those scots the old original like he was like >> and it was and it was to Josh down six

76:55yards downfield.

76:58>> That's a hot air throwing them hot air balloons, man. Like you crazy, man. But yeah, Marino. I bet Marino could still

77:06wing it, though.

77:07>> 64 years old. But I bet I bet he could do it. I bet he could do it. Yeah. He's that dude that goes to like the uh the

77:14the driving range. They can still lace him. He's long ball and still the driving range.

77:19>> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] >> Uh >> I got one trick still. One trick.

77:26>> Speaking of retired quarterbacks, uh let's talk a little bit more about Joe Burrow.

77:30>> Yeah. Yeah. Emo Joe.

77:32>> Yeah. Emo Demo Joe.

77:34>> It's sad, man.

77:36>> Don't >> And I hope he's really not go I hope he's not really going through like a a shitty time. It's the vibes are bad

77:42though.

77:44>> He's clearly going through a shitty time. I hope it's not like too shitty, you know?

77:48>> Did you see Jamar Chase after the game?

77:50>> No.

77:50>> He does like I He was like I might need to talk to him. He's like feels like he feels like I need to talk to him. I

77:55haven't seen him this basically was implying like I haven't seen him act this way. And Jar Chase was with him at

78:00LSU. Like they've just been together.

78:04>> Yeah. I saw him talk about he there's a clip going around of him talking about Pokemon and he seemed >> Yeah. Yeah,

78:11>> it's But he seems like so detached. He's just sort of like, "Yeah, I'll sit here and talk about Pokemon." Like, as long

78:15as I don't have to talk about the Bengals.

78:17>> Yeah. Talk about being here. [laughter] >> Yeah.

78:21>> You [clears throat] guys seen any good movies? Like, you guys streaming anything?

78:26>> Do you think like he has the vibe, you know, you're like in college or whatever, high school, you're like you

78:33got to you got to study for something and so you you kind of like you open the book and then you put the TV on. So you

78:39tell yourself the lie. I'm here to do this. And then you're like, but the TV Oh, look at that. And wouldn't Oh, a

78:47controller's in my hand. How did that happen? Guess I'll just play some Madden.

78:54So, I kind of I wonder if the the old Bengals playbook's open on the coffee table and he's uh he's playing some

79:00Pokemon.

79:01>> The vibes vibes are just >> they're not good.

79:04>> They could quit last week, too. like after that pick six he threw they just were like I guess we're done like they

79:11just laid down after that >> they did lay down this you know it's Zack Taylor they always pass the ball minus 7% proe minus 21% on first and 10

79:22uh that's a give up that's a Bengals giving up that's what that looks like so yeah it's pretty rough at the same time

79:30uh Aaron Rodgers looked awesome against this defense >> everyone everyone besides Brady Cook has been has been good. [laughter] >> Why is that?

79:42>> Yeah. [gasps] Um, so, you know, this could be like a real nice rebound spot. Do you have like how much because it's it's been such a

79:51bummer, but like wouldn't this be a a a potential spot for bro? Like we talked about the slate and the if Higgins is

80:00playing I'm actually I actually am pretty bullish on their passing game.

80:05I mean that that would be like talk about a way to do something that that people aren't going to be doing, you

80:11know, like you're not going to be building through like a Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow type of stack generally on this slate, but

80:17>> you're going to get uh you're going to get golf stacks on this slate for sure.

80:21>> A lot of built out and they're kind of he's priced in kind of the same range I think as golf. I think burrow 65 and

80:27golf is 63 >> and Amra is what? because Chase is 8600 and Omar's 84.

80:37>> Yeah. And then Higgin Higgins and um >> Jameson >> are probably pretty close too.

80:43>> Although I probably won't get down to Higgins just because I'm worried if he takes one hit like we're >> right.

80:51This game should be we should do a petition to get this move to four so that we can late swap to this off Golf

80:57Star.

80:57>> Correct. This would be perfect. It would honestly it's the symmetry is amazing.

81:01But also, like you said, you can be bullish and play ahead of the field if I mean gosh, when I mean it's gonna be

81:07hard to fade the golf stuff, but uh especially if the those pass rushers are gone. But this is like this is the

81:13parallel though. You have the same setup and you get the bring back. You have the Hand bring back. Although it is probably

81:19hard to fit that in.

81:22>> Well, honestly, in a if I if I was able to fit it in, I don't think I'd play Han. I think I play Gibbs.

81:28>> Well, oh yeah, you would. You would because it's the direct leverage.

81:32>> The direct leverage off the golf stacks that are >> You would 100%. You would 100% just play Bengals with Gibbs.

81:38>> Yeah. But but pricing wise, that's going to be really tough because you you're not like the easiest way to save to save

81:45as wide receiver and quarterback. Uh what you're not doing. So yeah, it's it's definitely an interesting spot though for the Bengals offense where you

81:55can see it's like a little thin, but you can see how it works. Probably large field stuff. I I don't think I don't

82:00think I'll end up on it. But for Largefield, I don't see how this is a a popular stack at all given the vibes. We talked

82:06about the Vibes being bad, but you know, it's also Joe Burrow and Higgins will be back and they're playing a terrible

82:11defense, so there's upside.

82:15>> 100%. Yeah. I mean, if we if we flipped over the cards on Monday and you got to like see this and you were like, "Oh,

82:21Joe Burrow was QB4 and had 28 points and Jamar Chase had two touchdowns." Be like, "Against the Dolphins?" You're like, "Yeah, okay. Yeah,

82:30>> great. That's how football works."

82:32>> I don't know. I I I made one just for grins and yeah, I tried to do the Gibbs Chase Burrow and it wants me to run

82:39double tight end and I'm like, I don't know if this is the week for that, but yeah. Uh, Vikings at Giants. Um,

82:50we've got JJ McCarthy coming off 95th percentile mark paper play against the Cowboys, 86th percentile mark against the Commanders. Both those are very bad

82:58defenses. Uh, and you know, these are the the types of defenses where it's like, hey, okay, you did it against the

83:05Cowboys, but like show me against someone real. But like the bar, we just needed him to get one of these.

83:14>> Yeah. Yeah. Do anything. Do anything.

83:16But now against the Giant, the Giants are not a good defense either. Um they're they're really bad against the run. They're like the worst run defense

83:25in the league, but they're also bad against the pass. And the Giants, they have a 62% pass rate against them, which

83:32is 1% above expect or above average.

83:34That league average is 61% this year. Uh 0% pass rate ever expected by opponents.

83:41So the Giants have the worst run defense in the league and are not a runfunnel. I think that tells you the pass defense is

83:48pretty vulnerable as well.

83:51Over the last two weeks, the Vikings have had pass rates over expected of 6% and 4% and on first and 10 9% and 7%.

84:00They've gone from like full-blown we have to keep this dude off the field where they they have these like really really conservative game plans. Minus

84:0727% on first and 10 against the Bears, minus 19%. Uh that was with Brazmer against the Seahawks. Uh, and then the

84:15Packers, they had a - 9% proeus 14% against the Bears. So, they've gone from that, which is not how Kevin Oonnell has

84:22like ever played. He's always been kind of, you know, usually with a a lean to the pass. Doesn't tend to go like super

84:29super pass heavy, but very very consistently with a lean to the pass.

84:34Uh, he's kind of doing his normal thing now. Now, uh, they won last week. They had a 52% pass rate. Uh

84:44they beat the Commanders too, right? I'm blanking on that, but they they had a 52% pass rate in both games.

84:49>> Yeah, Commanders Cowboys.

84:50>> They're expect >> Sorry, >> Commanders Cowboys. Back back to back.

84:53>> Yeah, Commanders Cowboys. Yeah. And they uh they had expected pass rates of 46 and 48% in those games. So we we don't

85:02know for sure that like he would pass 65 70% of the time if pushed, but it is nice to see that McCarthy is playing

85:10better and Okonnell is playing more like Okonnell now. So the whole thing starts to be looking more like we were hoping

85:15it would. Uh including Justin Jefferson coming off a 31% first week target rate, which is his highest of the season, and

85:23a 31% targets per out run, uh which is his second highest of the season.

85:27Unfortunately, he had a 0.85 yards per out run. Uh he has no connection with McCarthy, but they're trying to get him

85:34the ball, you know.

85:35>> Should have had two touchdowns.

85:37>> Should have had two touchdowns, one called >> Changed it a little bit, but one he dropped one uh and then had the one

85:42called back. Yeah, >> I blame most drops on McCarthy because he throws too hard, but um [laughter] but he did get one called back.

85:51Um so yeah, I mean the I don't know. I'm starting to like now they're not projecting well and I don't know if I end up getting to the Vikings,

86:01but I I'm intrigued by the Vikings this week, I have to admit. And I and I was completely out before the Commanders

86:07game on McCarthy. I was the guy I was the the tunnel tunneling for diamonds meme. I I walked away right before you

86:13beat the diamonds.

86:14>> Yeah, I did. But I don't know. I'm back in the mines now. I'm going to see if there's any more diamonds down there.

86:19>> Yeah, you can go with I could see him uh actually being kind of like the cash game quarterback, too, at 4,900. him or

86:24Brassette at 53 will probably be the kind of the chalky plays.

86:29>> I don't know if yours >> yours in cash [laughter] >> 4K. I It's 4K, man. 4K. If you want to

86:36play a 4K quarterback, I'm not going to talk you out of it. Ever >> against the Bengals. 4K against the Bengals. It's like I don't it doesn't

86:43matter.

86:44>> Yeah, he gets you 16 points. That's why I said that's I said at least I don't think I'm going to get to yours, but

86:50because there's so many other quarterbacks, but I'm optimistic. I'm taking the glass half full approach still >> at least for one week. At least for one

86:57week. But also here too because >> because this is where the Vikings are going to be able to play uh complimentary football again. Like

87:04they're going to be able to do >> they're kind of be a they're going to be able to marry the run at the pass game

87:08and that's where McCarthy's at his best, you know, going back to college. And I think that's why we've seen him play a

87:12little bit better here these past couple weeks. Game scripts have been better.

87:15Everything's kind of working. You know, it doesn't have to all be about him. Uh, yeah, they're and they're going to run

87:20the ball effectively here 100%.

87:24>> This may be a a strange comp, but it's I think they want to be like the Colts were earlier in the year where

87:31>> they're fundamentally like not passing that often because they get to play from ahead, but and they have a really good defense. So,

87:40you know, they could that that formula sort of holds up.

87:44>> And at the same time, they're prioritizing the pass and neutral situations to help their quarterback out. So, it's not, this isn't like the

87:53Seahawks where they're just like running the ball and using the quarterback for like more like play action shots downfield. They're actually okay using

88:02the quarterback uh you know more than you would expect given the game situation, but they really want that game situation to be neutral or tilted

88:09in their favor so they don't have to drop back like 70% of the time.

88:14>> Yeah, they're set up pretty well for that.

88:16>> Yeah, 100%. That's I feel it's like pretty adjacent to because he's given you you have the confidence. He had the

88:21two matchups in a row where he delivered. I feel like this is just the third one in line and he's been building

88:26up that confidence. I think the the offense will continue to look like it kind of has the past two weeks.

88:33>> Okay. I thought I was kind of hoping you'd talk me out of bullishness when JJ McCarthy and >> now I feel better about it which makes

88:41me feel worse.

88:41>> Yeah. I think the one worry is this this could potentially get closer to two weeks ago when they faced the

88:46Commanders. Uh because I'm terrified that the Giants are going to do anything against this defense.

88:54>> Yeah. So, the Vikings defense is interesting. It's a very good defense.

89:00Um, but you have seen spikes of efficiency against the Vikings this year. Uh, however, the guys who've gotten who've beaten this defense.

89:11>> Aaron Rodgers 72nd percentile in EPA per play. Jaylen Herz 98th, but he had a horrible success rate. 28th percentile success rate. So, it was, you know,

89:19downfield. He's got him with some big plays.

89:21>> Justin Herbert 91st percentile. Jordan Love 81st. Everyone else, which includes Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Jaden Daniels,

89:31and Dak Prescott, >> have been 50th percentile or lower. Um, Jackson's, uh, yeah, Jackson 45th. Oh, and Goff was with, yeah, 50th

89:41>> percentile against him. So, uh, he's gotten some really talented quarterbacks this year. And, you know, guys like Jake Browning and Michael Penn and Dylan

89:51Gabriel.

89:53um have been awful. So, it's it's like rookie quarterback not your champion against Brian Flores.

90:01You know, you you'd really like a a savvy veteran if you're going to go against this Vikings defense. Vikings lead the the league in blitz per

90:09dropback. They lead the league in quick pressure rate. They lead the league in pressure rate. And Dart has been okay against pressure, but not good against

90:17the Blitz. So, this is a rough spot.

90:20Like rookie quarterback going against the Blitz. I'm a pretty big dart guy. I think um obviously I would like for him

90:25to protect himself uh more like everybody else, but >> I actually think that that part of the conversation is like really

90:31overshadowing the fact that this dude >> rates like really well in efficiency so far. He's quarterback 13 in EPA per game, quarterback 19 in success rate.

90:40He's he's profiling as a top 15 NFL quarterback right now in efficiency. Uh and he's got a pretty decent sample size

90:46at this point. Like my view is actually that the Giants have found their guy and I would like much much much prefer him

90:52over someone like Cam Ward because even if he can't protect himself he can play ball so give me the guy who can play

90:58ball.

90:59>> I'm not sure I'm not sure Ward can.

91:01Maybe he can because the situation is bad but like dude Dart lost Malik Neighbors. His head coach got fired, right? Like he's got Juanale Robinson as

91:10his top wide receiver. Cam Scataboo goes down and they're they're leaning on Devin Singleary and Tyrone Tracy who's been horrible in rushing efficiency this

91:17year. Like the situation sucks >> and he's still been good.

91:22>> So I I I'm I'm a pretty big Dart guy.

91:25This is a not a spot where I want to be backing Dart though. I I think this is a this is a really tough setup.

91:31>> Yeah. I mean Brian Flores has been in his they dude they haven't even allowed a passing touchdown since week 10. like

91:37he's been in he's been in his bag uh of late like in you're you're gonna see the Jackson Dart's gonna see stuff that he

91:44has not seen like pre- snap post snap but it's been like a huge topic I know you've seen like all the quarterbacks

91:49like this week talking about it but it's be that's going to be massive for Dart and like it's not that that they even

91:55blitz and bring pressure it's what he does behind it like this is a team that blitzes but don't play man coverage it's

92:01like all zone behind it different different versions of variations of cover two they're dropping dudes ever because the defense got really uh it

92:08took off when they got the linebackers back. Uh Cashman and Van Ginkle when those dudes came back like this thing's all like it's all come back to like it's

92:17got the dudes because when you have those guys that could play coverage like that and Blitz because but Van Ginkle is

92:22awesome. Like what an underrated NFL player that dude is like he's so good man. Uh this is like I just I have a

92:28hard time seeing them having like passing success in this matchup uh in general. So it that that's what kind of is the steering of the ship here for me

92:36is like it's like is this a game where maybe if you are bullish on McCarthy and Justin Jefferson or uh the passing game

92:43is just like is it a spot in the second half where it's like the commanders game where like they're just not throwing at

92:47a certain point because they're just whipping the Giants. Um that's what you don't want to have happen.

92:53>> And I think it's important to note that the Vikings are a huge runfunnel. uh opponents have a 54% pass rate against

93:01them and a minus 6% pro and a 3% shift to the run. So, this is a defense that's affecting the way opponents are

93:09attacking them. They they have a mediocre run defense. They've got a terrifying pass defense. Like again, they're not all they're not the most

93:18efficient pass defense, although they're top 10 in, you know, in the metrics I site. So, they're good. Um, but they're also like the worse you are, the the

93:28less I want to face the Vikings. Like if you have, you know, like if if you've got uh the Rams, I wouldn't be too too

93:36concerned about it. But if I've got a rookie quarterback, I really do not want to face the Brian Flores defense. So,

93:43uh, I I do think the Giants try to run here. And and the other thing to note is that Mike Kfka has had a negative pass

93:49of expected in all four of his games as the head coach. Uh he last time they were getting smoked. They they quit.

93:57>> They Yeah, they'll quit.

94:00>> You can tap.

94:01>> They quit against the the Patriots. They had a 58 58% pass rate uh in a game they they lost handily and were losing from

94:09the jump.

94:10>> If they're in a position where they feel like they can't win the game, they're probably not going to put Dart in like

94:14any harm's way.

94:16I mean, it's it's like when these narratives are this big, you know, ownership's involved, like there's do not get our quarterback hurt.

94:25I thought I heard something where they basically said like you've got a a quota on how many designed runs you can do.

94:30Like >> they did run more last week at least with him um than they did in week 13 before the buy. But even that, like

94:39that's all we're hanging on to. I think if you're hoping Dart's going to get there, it's going to be on rushing

94:44stuff.

94:45Right.

94:47Which we know they're going to try to limit that. They don't want to.

94:51It's like C Kfka is not going to be the Giants head coach, but he's he's looking to have a job in the NFL next year, and

94:58>> is going to help.

94:59>> Yeah.

95:01Um, on the the Vikings, I just real quick, I I probably my favorite lean DFS- wise is just playing this like a Justin

95:10Jefferson alpha game because then I don't have to worry about um the overall pass volume. Like I like I like just

95:18saying like that 31% targets per out run was a signal. McCarthy playing better is a signal. Giants defense stinking is a

95:26signal. And I'm I'm betting on efficiency and the volume to funnel to one guy stacking up McCarthy.

95:33I mean, he's cheap enough you could do a single stack for sure, but um it's more I I like playing it mostly through

95:39Jefferson where I I'm like McCarthy, I'm pretty sure is still bad, but I know Jefferson's amazing. So, like if he can

95:47just clear that bar, McCarthy, you know, to just be just and figure out the way to get, you know, Justin Jefferson the

95:53ball consistently, uh, maybe we get a little bit of a revival there.

96:01All right, Buccaneers at Panthers. Baker Mayfield. Is Baker Mayfield back, Rich?

96:07>> I am excited to Baker is probably the quarterback I'm probably most excited to kind of dabble with this week. I think

96:14>> we saw him. They had their highest They had their highest pass rate over expectation of the season last week. Uh

96:2053% of his passes were 10 or more yards downfield. That was the highest rate.

96:24>> Uh 32% or 15 or more yards, his highest rate since week one. We saw the band back together. He's also facing another

96:30team that's going to run a ton of single high. And yeah, and this is a game that has stakes. Uh >> yeah,

96:38>> yeah, I'm I'm into Baker. I don't know how far I get past Mike Evans. Maybe you have some more to sell me on uh in terms

96:44of sorting out the the rotation behind him, but I'm very interested in in Baker Mike Evans Stacks.

96:51>> I'm really interested in Baker Mike Evans stacks. That's that's basically what it comes down to for me. Mike Evans came back and like I test

96:59>> dominated. Yeah, >> that's Mike Evans.

97:01>> Well, especially the single it's the single high stuff for me because like if Baker sees Mike Evans one-on-one, dude, he's gonna give him a chance to win all

97:08the time.

97:09>> Yeah. Just like because that's that's who they played. They played the team that was three, the Falcons in rate of

97:15cover three single high and they face teams number two in Carolina this week.

97:19>> Yeah. But uh are you watching Plurbus?

97:24>> I haven't I'm I'm going to but I just inseason haven't had a chance but I will be. So, there's a character who uh is

97:30kind of living on scraps for a while food-wise and uh at one point he gets a chance to just and it's the meal he gets

97:39uh is like been in the fridge for, you know, four days or something, but he but it's real. It's like real food, you

97:45know. Um and he just like scarfves it down like it's just like the most delicious thing cuz it's finally >> Yeah.

97:52>> a wide receiver who can beat man coverage in Mike Evans. That's that's what I'm saying. Baker Mayfield has been dealing with these

97:58zone beaters. You [clears throat] know, Mecca Ibuka can't win 101.

98:03>> Uh he's got 0.80 yards per hour run against man this year. Mike Evans comes back.

98:08>> He targets him on 36% of his routes.

98:11Yeah.

98:12>> With 4.71 yards per route run. Uh so the stats very much agree that that Mike Evans was playing at a Mike Evans level.

98:20So, I I think it's not just that like Evans is a good fit for this matchup, which I agree with you that he is, um,

98:28and that he's good. It's like Baker's been dying for this. He's been dying to have Mike Evans back, and here he is.

98:35So, I'm really excited for >> he just left enough on the table last week for people to like not like be bull

98:41because if he would have like had like I think like 25 to 27 fantasy points, people would be more aggressive. But the

98:47fact that last week was so high scoring and he left just enough on the table.

98:51Yeah. That like it feels like he's still like on the outskirts. I think he's a QB1 this week.

98:56>> Nice. Okay. I'm I'm excited about that.

98:59I think I have him. Uh let's see. Where do I have Baker?

99:04I've got Baker at quarterback 12. So, >> okay.

99:08>> Yeah. Quarterback one.

99:10>> And he'll move up as I I always pull out the the guys already played. So, um, although I think I had him over

99:17Stafford, so he won't he won't move up.

99:18Bad rank.

99:19>> Unfort Unfortunately, I did too, but uh, so [laughter] easy L already.

99:25>> Start off the week with a big Stafford do last night. Stafford wasn't good last night, right? [laughter] >> No, you uh,

99:32>> we saw the first half. We saw the first half, was he? [laughter] >> Yeah.

99:38>> I'm not gonna break that news to you.

99:40Um, [laughter] >> no, I'm I'm a fan. I I guess Ibuka here, what are your thoughts on him? Because he he this is a defense that plays a

99:50good amount of zone.

99:51>> Yeah.

99:54>> Uh 2.28 yards per hour running against zone and you know going to be I would say the secondary guy, but I like him

99:59more than Godwin.

100:01>> I do too. I think Godwin's in like that tertiary like we'll play the most routes of the non Evans guys, but like is that

100:06guy that's just kind of out there um?

100:08>> Right. So, I'm not like necessarily scared about it. I think Ibuka is still startable. Uh, you wish the price would

100:17maybe dropped a little bit more based on recent output in terms of DFS, but we talked about this last week like with

100:21Paw like >> you're it once your price goes up, it takes a while to come down.

100:26>> Uh, so yeah, I don't have a problem with him though. I I still think he's playable still too in uh seasonl long

100:32stuff. Obviously like the bar like the the posts have moved dramatically now, but >> he was still uh second on team in what

100:39first target share when he came in uh LA or last week behind Evans. Uh he still had a high target per run. He lost

100:46routes because Jaylen McMillan also got routes. He was back, but uh I think there's opportunity for efficiency per target to bounce back here now.

100:56>> I agree. Yeah, I mean he's he's a rookie and he was asked to be the number one and it kind of looked like it was going

101:04to work and then it didn't work. Um but like that's a lot to ask and that's not really what he profiled as. He profiled

101:12as like an awesome number two receiver and I think I think that's what he'll ultimately be. Um, so you know, I I think Ibuka, especially

101:22for season long stuff, DFS- wise, yeah, I I'm not gonna play him. He's too expensive. But, uh, season long, I think

101:30he's he's pretty interesting.

101:32Um, kind of a bounceback spot for him.

101:36Uh, on the Panthers side, I guess we let's talk Bucky Irving here because this is a pretty good matchup for him. Uh, I had him as a low-end RB1.

101:45Panthers run defense. It looked there was like three weeks that like tricked us into thinking maybe they were good, but they're they're down to 27th in

101:52rushing DVOA.

101:53>> They're not good. You can run on them.

101:55The Bucks have been generally kind of a run first run heavy team. Last week, as you mentioned, they were uh the past

102:01heaviest they've been all year, but you could see them leaning on the run in a matchup that, you know, shouldn't punish

102:08that type of approach. I know that's the version of this game that is a little bit scary still is that >> totally

102:14>> because you know the Panthers Panthers want to run the ball too.

102:18>> Yeah, they did. The Panthers Well, let's wait. Let's do the Bucky stuff.

102:23>> Yeah. Where you at on Bucky?

102:24>> Well, yeah. The problem with So Bucky on Thursday is the scary part is that he had he lost both awesome roles.

102:34>> Yeah. Like so we he lost the goal line work to Shawn Tucker which could have been a one-off or it could be uh part of

102:40the sample. I mean he has the the lowest success rate in the red zone of all running backs now this season. Uh he's a

102:45firstrounder touchdown 9% of his red zone runs. It's the lowest rate of of anybody in the league. So getting him involved like a bigger back Shawn Tucker

102:53it makes sense. The problem is that Rashad White was just like eating empty snaps like empty calorie snaps. He played the two-minute offense and but

103:02like wasn't doing anything. He was just out there and it's like this sucks like get Rashad like I wish there like there

103:08wasn't a third guy involved and it's like >> Goomba >> for people who weren't as obsessed with Ronald Jones as I was which you know is

103:18the earth um the it was it was uh what was the dude's name Payton Pton Durham was that guy's name

103:28>> no it was uh gosh I know it too Um, >> Payton Barber, >> Pton Barber, >> um, >> Pton Barber,

103:38>> Daria Goomba, and Ronald Jones. And it was split three ways. And like even when Jones would like kind of be the guy,

103:46this would happen to him where he he'd lose a goal line carry. And then Daria would come in and just soak up empty

103:53snaps, which is kind of what Dari still does. He's still hanging around soaking up empty seat. Did it last week. So, uh,

104:00it's just a it's right. Rashad White, I guess it was his destiny all along to just become the next Daria Goomba. It

104:06really hurts when you don't have that two-minute drill stuff because Buckyy's best thing, one 1.82 yards per hour run.

104:11That's running back three. He's running back three in ESPN's receiver rating. He was a really good receiver as a rookie was one of the reasons I was very

104:18excited about him entering the year.

104:20like this dude looks like a three down back and he's undersized but you know in kind of that Devon Achan way he's he's

104:27explosive he's versatile we don't need a ton of touches as long as we get the high value stuff and since the injury it

104:34it looked like maybe that was that was going to happen by the way because to start the year he had target shares of

104:3914 17 14 and 13% >> but since coming back 88 and seven >> and his his carry shares have been high

104:47but uh you know he's losing goal line work now to Shan on Tucker.

104:51>> So, yeah, Davis Davis talked about this on our DFS pod like that he's a trapback and maybe maybe he is.

105:01>> Yeah, I mean it it does on the surface, but like we are still working with a small sample. Maybe it flips like where

105:06you know where he does get a goal line carry, right? So, I don't want to rule it out.

105:13>> Tucker's good though. That's the problem is that when it was just White >> and Tucker was was, you know, the RB3

105:20and kind of off the radar, >> then it's like don't give Rashad White short yardage stuff because he's not good at it. And so he goes to Bucky. But

105:27now if Tucker's like Tucker's good and he's good at that, like he's a downhill guy.

105:34>> Yeah, I think he can get the early some early down targets are still going to be part of his profile. Um you hope you

105:40turn turn those into efficiency like he has been. Still touched the ball 17 times. It's just that we want that uh

105:45that two four-minute drill stuff and the obviously the goal line work we really need for ceiling potential.

105:51>> Totally. Uh Panthers side the Bucks pass funnel pretty big pass funnel. Good run defense, vulnerable

106:02pass defense. Do the P do the Panthers care?

106:07>> They should. And he did. Dave Canals did care in both games last year against them. They're I think their two highest

106:13pass rateations came against the Bucks last year.

106:17>> The problem is is I just wonder if the 49ers game broke Dave Canales or not.

106:21And I just don't know if he's going be able to snap out of it. Last week they should have won the game, but because he

106:27was so overly stubborn to the run, they let the Saints hang around and they blow a 10-point lead. That game they were

106:32they were terrible running the football last week and they just stuck with it when they could have thrown the ball.

106:37Bryce Young was actually playing pretty well in that game and they lost that game because they just overly committed to the run. The one game that Dave

106:45Canales in the past month was like willing to throw the football. He should have run the football and I actually said he should have like the 49ers game

106:53and like you you want to run on the 49ers and then he over he was like well man like we just came that was he

107:00had just come off the Bryce Young Atlanta game. He's like well let's let him loose a little bit >> and they overcommitted to the past.

107:06Bryce Young played bad, turned into a stinker, they were bad, and then they've just overcommitted to the run ever since because the run game has been terrible

107:13for weeks. Like they have been a bad running team and they're just sticking with it. So hopefully that that it does

107:20push them out of it. We got Zion McCollum now out in this game. This is a game they have to throw the football.

107:26They have to. Will they? Remains to be seen. Place I think both games last year, I'll try to find it. Uh they did

107:32throw the ball heavily in both games.

107:37Yeah, I don't think they I don't think they throw the ball.

107:44They just to me as much as the 49ers game, it's the Rams game where they had a 39% pass rate and won. Like when you

107:52if you're like convinced that you can run the ball and win and you beat the Rams with a 39% pass rate, like how do I

107:59ever convince you that you should stop doing that, you know?

108:03>> Right. But yeah, I mean this Bucks pass defense is bad. They're down real bad.

108:09>> But you look at the last two weeks with a 39% pass rate and then a 56% which was uh 11% below expected.

108:19Bryce Young's been efficient. 97th percentile lead paper play against the Rams, 77th percentile last week. Uh his success rate has been super low in both

108:27games, 29th and 13th percentile. I think you're kind like to me if and and you know I'm generally a fan of passing the

108:38ball but like I would I understand the idea if you're building an offense you're like hey we have this quarterback who we cannot count on to consistently

108:46move the ball but >> has been actually making some plays and I'm not interested in just like riding that out and giving him like you know 45

108:55drop backs or whatever but I'm okay with like limiting his drop backs and seeing if you can give us a little splash of

109:01efficiency and then building my game plan around the run. Um, and I I think that's probably what they do even in a

109:09matchup where you'd normally expect a team to drop back more. But, um, the takeaway for me ultimately is that I just don't trust the passing game here

109:19uh, in a spot where I would I would like to be excited. But you look at um Bryce Young, he's had a 50th plus percentile

109:28mark in EPA per play and an above average pass rate just twice all season.

109:33It was against the Cardinals in week two. He combined those and the Falcons in week 11. Um and other than that, it's

109:41been one or the other. Usually neither.

109:44Uh because he's had a 50th plus percentile or higher in EPA paper play just five of 13 games. So So part of the

109:50issue is he's not been good. um not been efficient. Uh so you know you you have that working against you and then the

109:58volume question is is still a pretty big worry even in this matchup. Uh the other part is that Jaylen Coker has been

110:05coming on a little bit. 26% targets per hour run against the Rams, 15% last week. He's been decently efficient and I

110:12think this hurts Tedaro McMillan who's been at a target per hour of nine and 14% over the last two weeks. Obviously,

110:18I still like McMillan a lot more, but um part of the the play with McMillan is like, yeah, they don't pass, but he's

110:27the whole passing game. But is he anymore?

110:30>> You know, I'm not as confident that he is. He probably >> is, but it's not like he's the only game

110:36in town.

110:37>> Yeah. And here he's going to he's going to draw the worst of this. He's going to get a lot of Jamal Dean in this game on

110:43the outside. Uh the Bucks are still really good against opposing wide receiver ones because Dean's played really good. He's he's third in catch

110:50rate allowed when targeted this season.

110:51Hasn't allowed a touchdown. Should have allowed one on Thursday, but David Sills put that ball down. But we're Zion McCollum left that game and now we're

111:00like deep into the rotation at quarterback. I think Benjamin Morrison's going to start. He's been inactive, but they have Jacob Parish and uh Kendall

111:08Vador who they're going to play. But like all these guys have been bad the whole year. So, I actually >> kind of think you don't need this. I

111:14don't think it's necessary because you need Carolina to throw to facilitate this, but I do think if you were going to like bring back someone with Evans

111:21and Baker, it would be Coker and not McMillan.

111:26>> I agree because he what what is he? Uh >> he's 44.

111:32>> Okay, that's a little higher than I was hoping you'd say.

111:35>> Yeah. I mean, he's been >> 58.

111:37>> He's been a little solid. He He's been solid of Lakes. He's been what? He's over 50 yards three of his past four

111:43games.

111:43>> I wanted you to say 38. Then I'd be like, >> "Yeah." Nah. Yeah. He's He's been getting a little nibbled.

111:48>> Yeah.

111:49>> Nibbled on.

111:51>> But as I said, I don't think he's nec he's he's not necessary either. I just think if you were to pick if you were to

111:57tell me at cost which Panther receiver to bring back with Evans, I would lean Coker because I think you're going to

112:03get a lot of Jamal Dean. I think Tech could still score a touchdown, but I think I think he's gonna be he's going

112:08to need a touchdown this game. Well, and and the best practice here would be just to pay less, right? Like I don't trust

112:17the Panthers to throw. So like the cheaper of the two is probably you're on the right track.

112:21>> Correct.

112:21>> Um yeah.

112:24So yeah. What about the run game for the Panthers?

112:28>> It's bad. And I don't think it's in a good spot either. Uh like you want, like I said, you want to be throwing the ball

112:32on the Buccaneers right now. U you look at uh Dowel was all ear out of the buy.

112:38They kind of told us they were going to do this. It was going to be early down uh passing down Hubard sprinkling a

112:44little bit as a compliment. Uh but since week 10, Carolina running backs, no matter who the running back is, are 24th

112:50in yards per carry. They are 31st in success rate uh since week 10. Only the Raiders are worse uh than them. Dowels

112:58rush for 3.2 yards per carry since week 10. Is it your dog is aware of this? So like yeah, like this is running game

113:05hates the Panthers running throw the ball. Uh, Dowel is only ahead of Quinchan Judkins and Ashen Janty in yards to carry and that and the Bucks

113:14are still a really good high success rate team against the run. They'll just give up a splash play. Like their thing

113:19is when they when they give up a run, it's like they give up all of it. But when you look at the backs that have hit

113:25against them, are either of these Panthers backs I guess they could be explosives. We saw doubt will have explosives, but >> we saw doubt will do it.

113:32>> It's Henderson, it's Gibbs, it's Bejian Robinson. like is these explosive backs.

113:38So yeah.

113:41>> Yeah. And and the funny thing, the Bucks past defense has actually been the opposite where they're 29th in success rate against. They haven't allowed

113:49>> I mean it's here for Dave Canales. It's so obvious what to do in this game.

113:54>> And they've done that with Bryce Young before where like occasionally he he will just drop back a ton. like the way

113:59they played the Cardinals when I know they were like coming back in that game but like were you just like let him pass

114:05a ton and he was okay in that game that that was he was 55th percentile on EP play wasn't great but they had an 80% pass

114:12rate it was Jacobe Brassette be Jacobe Brassette right that that's what that's the way to attack the Bucks is just like

114:20we're just going to throw it a bunch >> high success rate or at least you know sufficient success rate and we're not

114:28going to attack this run defense where it's pretty strong. And you know, passing is generally more efficient than running to begin with. So, you know,

114:35we're just going to take on this pass defense that's allowing a really high success rate against it. Uh, which is what everyone else is doing, by the way.

114:42That's why they're a huge pass. So, um, like Kirk Cousins just cooked against this defense, man.

114:48>> Yeah.

114:50>> Brassette was good. Shuck was good. You It's like everybody's getting there.

114:54It's been a while since someone hasn't hasn't been uh really good against this Bucks D. So, I I think we're in

115:00agreement of how they should go, but I also just don't >> taking Yeah. taking that step of faith of >> I said I think that 49ers game broke

115:09him, man.

115:11Well, I mean, but then he wins the next week, so that's where I I think it's the Rams game that broke him because he I

115:18mean, it's a sort of the same it's the flip side of the same coin there, like which >> which broke. But yeah, he's

115:24>> he's a changed man. He's he's never going back.

115:29Uh, all right. Jaguars at Broncos.

115:33These are two passfunnel defenses, but one of the passfunnel defenses is the Jaguars and one of them's the best probably second best pass defense in the

115:42league, >> right?

115:44>> Uh how do you think this game environment plays out? Because there's it's thin, but I I could see this game

115:49actually being pretty fun.

115:51>> Yeah, I actually do want to take uh an aggressive stance at least in tournaments on the Broncos side, on the

115:57Bonick side, which could also go wrong.

116:00Like don't don't get me wrong. like putting it even we know we know what we're getting like very boomer boss style quarterback bon Nicks

116:07>> but there are a few things I'm looking for truths on the Jaguars on one of them is their defensive resurgence that has

116:13come against Brady Cook Riley Leonard and Cam Ward these past three weeks now they also the week before that smothered the Chargers and didn't even let them

116:21come up for air uh in that game so we I mean grain of salt because like the Chargers after Joel have been bad but

116:26they also just like nuked them like didn't even let them do anything in that But prior to that, like they were a team

116:32we were kind of picking on a little bit, you know, between Gino Smith getting there out of the buy, Davis Mills had a

116:3727point game against them. Uh the infamous Davis Mills week on the show, uh that was the against the Jaguars. So, I'm looking for like some truth on like

116:46how how back is this Jaguars defense?

116:48How good are they since Denver lost JK Dobbins? I mean, they're second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation behind

116:55the Cardinals. Bonenix is 295 or more passing yards in three of his past four games. So, I kind of interested in like

117:02saying, "All right, are we gonna get some Bonick's passing volume here?" And how good is this Jaguars defense to facilit like how much how far has the

117:09growth come? So, and we're getting Pat Bryant back, which means we can just play Courtland Sutton uh out of the receivers and like he's a nice mid-range

117:18guy. Lets us play all those running backs we want to play. We could play Courtland Sutton with Mike Evans on those teams. Like I

117:23>> you know, so it's like he kind of just fits. So I I'm I'm going to play some tournament Bonix for sure this week.

117:32>> I think it makes sense. My you know there's a little bit of caution here like >> Yeah, of course.

117:37>> Bonix's EPA chart [laughter] kind of looks like like a crypto meme.

117:41>> Yeah, dude.

117:42>> You know, it's like it's like it's going up and >> it's the Bitcoin of quarterbacks.

117:47>> Just absolutely. And it and >> Bitcoin's not been too hot recently, so you be careful out there. When it goes

117:54down, it goes down hard.

117:56>> Yes.

117:57>> Yep. [laughter] >> So that's >> And there's no predictability to Bonix either. Like he'll leave good matchups on the table. Like

118:04>> dude, he he's been [snorts] horrible.

118:07Horrible against the Titans.

118:09>> Yeah.

118:10>> And the Raiders.

118:11>> Yeah, man.

118:12>> Like how does that happen?

118:16I mean it [sighs] he was awesome against the Packers.

118:19>> Lit the Packers up.

118:21>> Yeah. So I don't know. I can't tell you what Bon Knicks is going to do. No.

118:25Right.

118:26>> But I do.

118:27>> You got a dollar. You got a dollar cost average into Bon Knicks. [laughter] >> No way to predict it.

118:33>> 100% man.

118:37>> Oh man.

118:41We need Bonix with the lasers. The lasers coming [laughter] out because he is he just is Bitcoin.

118:50Uh the guy got like that guile haircut too. He could be fit.

118:54>> I mean he looks like I mean Bonix owns Bitcoin like that's not that's not up for debate.

119:02>> You know like Bon Bon is like a 25-year-old college kid or whatever.

119:06Yeah.

119:06>> So you know he's told all like you know >> Troy Troy Franklin didn't have bit Bitcoin until Bonex told him about it.

119:17>> Absolutely.

119:21That's what I'm saying. Um, so Jaguars defense a lot better recently, but the quarterbacks here, Davis Mills is is the the one here in the middle where it kind

119:33of goes down to him in the 54th percentile. Then Herbert Lance filled in the end of that game. Brat, Cam Ward,

119:40Riley Leonard filling in for Daniel Jones and Brady Cook. So, they just haven't faced anybody. Uh, I mean, they got Herbert, but Herbert's going behind

119:48a uh terrible offensive line at this point. Daniel Jones was playing with the uh the fractured leg and gets hurt in

119:55that game. Uh, so most likely this is just a really bad pass defense that has gotten a super soft opposing quarterback

120:04schedule recently and we're going to get right back to targeting them again. Uh, they're are good against the run, so they've been a big pass funnel. Um

120:14they're a defense that has not had a good success rate against the pass. Um they've had some big plays on defense,

120:20but uh this is the type of defense where if you're going to be like a pass first, pass heavy um type of offense and and

120:30kind of just like pick apart the defense uh with volume, great matchup for that.

120:37So, I'm I'm actually pretty optimistic on the Broncos here as well. You know, as you mentioned, they've pivoted to being more of a a pass heavy team. Last

120:48four pass rates ever expected of 3%, 7%, eight, and 3% first and 10, five, seven, 15, and five. Um, and dude, Sutton, he's

120:58kind of the only guy here. Like, it's they're they're doing a bunch of bunch of stuff. Troy Franklin still didn't have full-time usage last week even with

121:06Pat Bryant out. They played little Jordan Humphrey 76% round participation.

121:10>> Yep.

121:11>> Amazing.

121:12>> Pat Bryant's probably back. I'm not messing with anyone who's not Portland Sutton.

121:18>> Uh Evan Ingram was at 41% round participation last week. Not doing that.

121:22So, it is really clean. It's just Knicks to Sutton.

121:26>> And he'll probably throw a touchdown or two to one of these Jamokes. But good luck guessing who like >> Yeah.

121:32I'm not doing that.

121:34>> But I do I do like the Knicks call.

121:36>> Yeah. I mean, it's one of those things like Yeah. Franklin and right when we saw Franklin come back and get a little

121:40bit involved last week. The dude earns targets when he's on the field. Like Yeah. And he and he earns red zone

121:45targets, too. He should had two touchdowns in that game. Uh he was so mad they called that one back. Uh but

121:50yeah, it's like I said, it's it's really clean to just be able to play Sutton here as the guy that's going to be on

121:54the field the whole game.

121:57>> Yep.

121:58If the Broncos push, which I think they will, at least I mean again, we don't know, but uh because Bonex is is tough

122:07to predict, but >> good chance they do, [clears throat] then you could have the the Jaguars needing to pass. And the thing about the Broncos

122:17defense, they're good against the run.

122:19And they actually profile as a pass funnel defense. 67% opposing pass rate, 1% pass rate of expected against them, a 2% shift to the pass. The Packers we

122:29just saw go aggressive against them, 73% pass rate, 4% pass rate of expected.

122:35That was not from a position of strength, but like so what? You know, if the Jaguars are chasing here, like great, uh, we can use the volume. Um,

122:42I'm kind of intrigued by Jacobe Myers a little bit. It's like a volume based play. Probably more for season long, but

122:49>> yeah. Um I do think like I do think the Jaguars will pass more than usual here.

122:54Uh but at the same time you do have Travis ETN consolidating the backfield to an extent because Bashalt Tutin will be out. You will have a Quinn Allen

123:02who's kind of their Daria Goomba which which hurts him but >> rushing volume should at least consolidate to ETN.

123:10>> Yeah. My my thing with the Jaguars and like is more like you said more like I think towards seasonal long stuff. I

123:16think if the guys that get there, they kind of get there as like start starting value, but like ceiling stuff I still

123:23think is kind of tough to project here for any >> 17 points. You know, >> that's why I think because Lawrence has

123:30faced five top 10 pass defense already and his highest week was the QB6 game against the Chiefs, but he had two

123:36rushing touchdowns in that game.

123:37>> Yeah.

123:38>> Yeah.

123:39>> He's only thrown for more than two passing touchdowns in one of those games. That was the Seahawks game. They didn't have Deon Witherspoon, but he was

123:43only at six yards or passed them.

123:45Granted, that was preJacobe Myers, but I think even if Lawrence gets there, it's like, yeah, like you said, like that 17

123:50to like 19, right? Like backend QB1, he just gets there. But like at his price jump, like you're probably not getting a

123:5625 30 point game. So like maybe you don't stream form if you've been riding him, but like jamming him in I think in

124:04DFS is tough. And then the same thing for the receivers. I mean, this is a team that's allowed five touchdowns to

124:07wide receivers this year. Like it's so it's like >> it's just real tough to like project a lot of ceiling projections on here. And

124:15the other thing for ETN is like we got pretty lucky last week. You know, I was overweight on ETN, but the whole thesis

124:22of playing ETN was their huge home favorites against like this inefficient run defense of the Jets. And they sucked running the ball. He ran 12 times for 32

124:31yards. He had three catches for 73 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Basel Tutin caught a fourth touchdown for the

124:37running backs in that game. Like we can't count on that to roll over here.

124:41This is a guy that didn't have more than 31 receiving yards in a game until last week. He had three he had three career

124:45receiving touchdowns before last week.

124:48>> Wow.

124:48>> And the Bengal uh Broncos, we talked a little bit last week and Jacobs did catch that wheel route. Was an awesome play. But only 13% of the

124:56receptions allowed by Denver have been by running backs. It's the lowest rate in the NFL. Um and this isn't a oneweek

125:03thing for ETN in this run game. This run game has been kind of bad for a while.

125:08ETN since the buy has only rushed for over four yards per carry one time and it was against the Cardinals. Like I

125:14might rush for two and a half yards per carry against the Cardinal. [laughter] But over the past three weeks, he has a

125:2027% success rate rushing.

125:24>> Like in the last front end run defense he faced, Tennessee, 12 carries for 28 yards in that game. I It's hard to be I

125:32think season long he's going to have so much work. He's a val I think he's like a volume RB volume based like kind of

125:36RB2 guy here. Maybe if he gets in the box uh once or twice, you get like a pass interference at the one or

125:41something and you're able to get that touchdown, you feel really good about it. But it's just hard for me to objectively look at the Jaguars guys and

125:47and paint like spike week outcomes. It's like if you play Jacobe Myers, you're hoping he he gets there as like a wide

125:54receiver three plus. If you play ETN, you hope it's like an RB2 plus. You play Lawrence, it's like a backend QB1,

126:01right? Like that's what I see here. Even if they are aggressive >> with the uh running back reception stuff, is that because they're blitzing

126:11so much?

126:12>> Yeah, we kind of talked about this in like a little bit last week. It's hard to kind of diagnose because typically

126:16when you have a team that gets so much quick pressure, they will give up catches to running backs like quick hitters and it hasn't. Our theory that

126:23we kind of pitched last week was are these guys staying in the block more?

126:26And I just never I've never looked at that. So >> I haven't looked it up. Yeah. So, yeah, give us give us another couple weeks.

126:32>> Yeah.

126:33>> When [laughter] when the show's over.

126:36>> So, I don't know. But all I know is one running back has more than three catches in a game against him this year.

126:41>> Okay.

126:43What would your running style be if if you did have to have to be an NFL running back? Would you in your current

126:49form? Not like you don't get to go back in time.

126:51>> Yeah, I was bad, man. Yeah, I was a receiver, so real real real rough, man.

126:56>> Well, you I think I'd just be like up the middle. Like I just I'm not gonna be >> Oh yeah, I can't go wide now, man. You

127:02want me running? I'll look like Have you seen any time the Saints have tried to have Taesm Hill like go anywhere that's

127:08not straight forward off that injury?

127:10Like that's what I'd look like. That's what >> Okay.

127:12>> Yeah.

127:12>> Yeah. I think I'm It's like give me like give don't even hand it to me. Just like put me in the wildat

127:19>> because I want I don't even want I want as little time as possible to have elapsed. And then I'm running right

127:26up to the guy. I don't want you to see me. [snorts] Like my my goal is to like hide from the camera. [laughter]

127:33I'm trying to get in that pile, baby.

127:36Worst thing that could happen is you see me versus an NFL defender in the open field. [laughter] Um, all right. Let's move on.

127:46>> Yeah.

127:47>> I mean, do you have anything you have anything different? Like I mean are you excited to throw darts on Brian Thomas

127:51or any of these dudes or >> No, I I think if I if I'm betting on Lawrence and I was excited about

127:57Lawrence last week ultimately should have been more excited, but I I talked him up about, you know, like >> completion percentage never good, right?

128:05Uh where does he try to make throws a lot of times outside the numbers and downfield and >> that's an awesome way to attack the Jets

128:13because they they allow uh production there >> and and the Titans and the Cardinals.

128:17That's like that's why I said this is such a big test for this team to see where we are because even the last month

128:22while everyone's been excited about how because you've seen the clips and he has played great in these games.

128:26>> But now like show show us how real this is. This is like the spot because the past month they have faced nobody.

128:35>> And I I don't know. I I'm of the mind that we know where we are. This is like what year five of Trevor Lawrence. Like

128:41>> we know what we have. Like he's not you know when it's like oh this dude stinks.

128:46like he doesn't stink, but he's not good. You know, he's okay. And so, he's like an okay quarterback who's been on a

128:54run that's been pretty good, but and really good last week, but like I mean, the Jets like it's I'm excited about

129:02Tyler Shuck because he's playing the Jets, you know, right? This is This is >> So I think that I mean I hope he's he

129:12surpris It would be fun actually if Lawrence has turned a corner and we get you know him being like no this dude's

129:16like a legit like Baker Mayfield kind of breaking out under Cohen type of vibe.

129:21That would be great. Um I hope this is an awesome football game.

129:25>> I hope this is an awesome football game >> because we might see it again.

129:29>> We we very may well. Uh, and and if depending on how it goes, it might be in Jacksonville, >> right?

129:38>> So, yeah. I mean, it would be fun. I think if I was going to take a stab on anyone, it would be Meyers is just like

129:44a bet on like volume.

129:47Um, but yeah, I don't I don't have a lot of interest in in Brian Thomas who's uh he's 5400

129:57on DraftKings and Jacobe Myers is 55. So they're they're they're equivalent. I would I would go Myers over over Thomas in this setup. And I liked Thomas more

130:07last week. It's just more about like I >> I don't think the Bronx be giving up a bunch of big plays here, which is

130:13generally why I'm not that into uh into Lawrence. But >> uh if you want to bet on the volume, I I

130:18would take the the possession receiver personally.

130:21>> Yeah.

130:22>> All right. Falcons at Cardinals. Uh speaking of the Cardinals, Falcons should be able to be efficient here.

130:29Kirk Cousins coming off 87th percentile mark in EPA per play. They passed 69% of the time. They were still 2% below expected and are generally a

130:40run heavy to run first to run heavy team. And the Cardinals are also not good against the runs. So this one sets

130:47up pretty easy on the Falcons side where I think run first to runheavy approach but then efficient off of that. Um with

130:55Drake London back. Uh hopefully. I don't know if we've gotten that officially yet, but >> so Raheem Morris said he's going to

131:03play, but he also is DMP today.

131:07>> Weird.

131:08>> Yeah, it's very It was a very weird thing. So, he came out and said he's definitely playing. He He said they're

131:13listing him as questionable, but he will play, but he also didn't He got He was labeled DMP today, >> which is just weird. It's a like real

131:22weird.

131:23>> Okay. [gasps] Um, >> yeah, because the both both guys coming back in this game are what throws this game into like a weird thing because if

131:30this game happened a week ago, this would be we would have stacked the [ __ ] out of this game.

131:36>> Yep.

131:36>> Like we would have played Pitts. We would have played uh Well, maybe not.

131:39Well, we probably would have played Pitts. Oh, just McBride. Maybe both. We would have played Michael Wilson. Like we would jam the dudes in. Now that

131:47Harrison and Wilson or Harrison and London could play, it throws those two guys in kind of a oh, what do we do with

131:53these guys now?

131:56>> And and what do we do?

131:58>> I wish I had an answer because last time Marv came back when Marv came back from the appendecttomy, they they just

132:04ghosted Michael.

132:05>> They gave they gave him the role. Yeah, he got the role.

132:09>> Yeah. Uh, >> and he only had 64% participation, but but that that heel Davis reminded me that heel injury was uh was he suffered

132:16it in that game. So, >> yeah, I have the actual uh splits because True Media I can filter the actual plays. So, they he ran 29 routes

132:25with Michael Wilson on the field like they were on the same play 29 times and uh Marv had 30% of the team targets 2.38

132:35yards per hour run in that game. Michael Wilson's at 13% 0.93 yard sprout run on those plays. Now it's only a 29 play

132:42sample like maybe they did that and then you got two more weeks of Michael Wilson playing good and they're like hey let's

132:48just play this dude like we don't know but that's all we have to work with too though it's we are just we've got to

132:54take a step of faith in some direction.

132:55Are you choosing to take it on Michael Wilson who's now a thousand more than Marvin Harrison or are you choosing like

133:02it's it's just a tough spot.

133:03>> Marvin Harrison is is how I like because I'm getting $1,000 >> and their investment to Marv is real.

133:09Like there this team is hyperinvested in Marvin Harrison Jr. being a good football player.

133:17>> If you're Jonathan Genner, are you hyperinvested in anything?

133:20>> No. At this point, >> he's clucked.

133:23>> Yeah. So everyone's leaving. So the people in charge of who call >> I I wouldn't care unless >> give Trey McBride all these records.

133:31>> Yeah, that's cool. Do that. That's something you can like tell people about. You know, I had the tight end who

133:38like broke this or that, right?

133:40>> He's 11 catches shy of the record. Let's just do it this week.

133:45>> Who says no? That's That's great. I mean, I don't really see unless they're like I don't know, you know, Marvin

133:54Harrison the person. Maybe they maybe they're invested in him as like a guy.

133:58Maybe they're like, "You're our dude. We want to see you get back and, you know, we're rooting for you out there." That

134:04would make sense. But it from an organizational standpoint, like, who cares? Who cares if Marvin Harrison works out? They're they're gone.

134:13>> I think that's why they don't I think that's also why Michael Wilson, they don't care either.

134:19>> [laughter] >> right? Like like it's just what it is.

134:24>> They found this guy. They're he's established and they're like, "Yeah, we don't care."

134:27>> I mean, dude, the entire back half of the season has been like they've just run the offense. It's like kind of

134:31whatever, right? Like, let's just like they got Jacobe Brassette dropping back nearly 50 times a game.

134:37>> It's wild. I think it's just they're trying to prove that they can coach basically, which I'm not sure they they

134:43have fully proven that. Oh, they dude, they're they're 0 and6 with a minus 95 point differential in the past six games. Like, [laughter]

134:53what the [ __ ] are they proving?

134:55>> I think they're proving that Kyler should get another shot. [laughter] >> They're That's almost what they're back door doing is saying it's not Kyler's

135:02fault.

135:03>> They're kind of They're almost showing it wasn't Kyler's fault >> cuz I mean, yeah, it's Kyler's >> which I still It's also which I also

135:10think is still the wrong read.

135:12>> Well, Kyler, it's Kyler's fault. If you're trying to get Trey McBride touchdowns, that's definitely Kyler's fault. Right. But if you're trying to

135:21win football games, I'm not sure.

135:23>> Right.

135:24>> Kyler's got to start somewhere next year, right?

135:27>> He will for sure.

135:29>> Like Quinn Eurers and Brady Cook are starting games this week. How is Kyler Murray not starting football games next year?

135:34>> I mean, there's going to be a bunch of dudes. I would assume someone's gonna take Anthony Richardson. Like, >> there's gonna be a coach that had a high

135:42thing. Hey, I agree. I They're like, "Dude, I could do it."

135:46>> You know how much hubris is in the NFL?

135:48>> Yeah, but you got to trade for him.

135:50>> It's true. You didn't give something up.

135:51But what is >> I don't think you can give up anything.

135:55>> I mean, it should be like a fourth or a fifth.

135:57>> And I guess now that Daniel Jones got hurt, maybe the price of the brick went up.

136:03It definitely went up because they Yeah, that's like part of your cell to not fire me is like, well, we got Anthony,

136:10you know, we're going to be able to take a look at him next year. And what do you do? Are you guys franchising Jones?

136:16>> A number of these guys. The one I think that we that we the guy we talked about I think that's the hardest to make the

136:21case for is Tua.

136:24>> I I don't see the point of Tua. Like, >> right, >> Tua.

136:29If you're trying to sell me on Tua, you'd be like, "Well, there's this like young hot shot in San Francisco who like

136:34comes up with a bunch of gimmicky offense. We'll pair them together. His name's Mike McDaniel.

136:39>> And [laughter] but we just did it. It didn't work.

136:43>> We just did it. We just did."

136:45>> I'm not doing it again. You can't convince me that Tua can be something.

136:48We rode those tires as long as they would allow us.

136:51>> Yeah. [snorts] Ta is a backup. He's a backup quarterback, right? I think he's the one guy out of all like the dudes

136:57that I don't think is I think he's the thinnest to start next year.

137:03>> And Tua is um under contract. So Tua they can't even get rid of Tua. Tua is Deshun Watson.

137:10>> Oh, they're just going to eat it. Yeah, they're just going to eat this salary.

137:14>> Well, they're going to eat it. But I don't think they can move him. Like they'd have to >> No, >> they're going to have to cut him. No

137:21one's No one is trading for Tua. There is absolutely no chance.

137:26>> But if they cut him, like Tua has a $99 million cap hit next year. Uh, sorry, dead cap number. That's not his cap.

137:35That's his dead cap number. So if you you would all that would accelerate. He So he has he signed 26 27 28 and it has

137:42a void year in 29 where they have some money sitting there which will accelerate under the cap if you cut them. So they're going to have to take

137:50basically $100 million just not that they don't have to work with if they cut Tua.

137:57They they can like they can ease the pain by having that spread out over a few years.

138:04>> They're going to they'll do the uh probably the June one. Yeah. I think it'll be >> even if you post June one, I think it's

138:11horrendous.

138:12>> Yeah. Oh, well there's no it's like it is >> like 50 over two.

138:16>> We're starting at the point where it's horrendous. Yes. Uh well, everyone just did this because after he got benched, everyone broke this down. I think it So

138:24like Yeah, it's uh it's 67.4 million dead uh post June 1 and then it'd be 31 the year after uh where it's just like

138:32it's I mean, but that's the lesser of evils. It's the lesser of e like I guess >> I mean two are ruins.

138:40>> Does he have other stuff that guarantees?

138:42>> Yeah. Well, he had something that already guaranteed uh for next year. So, but he's he ruined contract extensions, I think, for all these mid-range

138:49quarterbacks forever.

138:51>> Yeah. I don't see 20 2026 option bonus.

138:57Uh >> but everyone's already like the the capologists have already like broken this down. So, like we don't have to we

139:02don't have to try. Like the articles exist.

139:05>> Okay. But they're they're going to cut him.

139:08>> I'm pretty sure they will. Like I think that they've signaled he's not their quarterback and no one's trading for this contract.

139:17Dude, $54 million of his 26 compensation is already fully guaranteed.

139:21>> It's already That's already in Yeah, it's already in the books.

139:27>> Yeah, >> this bad news, man. It's bad news.

139:31>> Having the Kyler contract and being like, "Oh, this is actually pretty good."

139:34>> But Kyler, like someone would be like, "This dude's an athlete." You know, >> Kyler I would I mean, look, M. Jones is

139:42gonna be starting for someone next year.

139:45So, >> the 49ers. No, >> he both Well, what's funny is both the Cardinals and 49ers pulled the shrewest moves that anyone did. They signed those

139:53guys to two-year contracts.

139:56Was it that true to get Buret for two years?

139:59>> But if they if if they gave a one-year contract, someone would have signed him.

140:06Like, he someone I I don't I doubt someone's tra. But like, you know what I mean, though? But like, at least they

140:10left the >> They're not winning any games. Like, this is you. I mean, from the perspective of real football, like from

140:16it's shrewd from like I can draft Trey McBride again next year, but I don't know if it's shrewd from like an

140:22organizational standpoint. This dude's not doing anything.

140:25>> They might they gives him the option to outright punt again and just like try to just reset.

140:32>> Yeah. Although, not to go too far down tangent rabbit holes, but I'm not convinced the 27 quarterback class is really any good at all. Most of the the

140:41cell for the 27 quarterback class is >> it has all the guys from 26 who stayed like oh Arch Manning will be in it

140:49because he was too bad to come out this year. Lenor Sers who stunk >> will be back and maybe he won't stink

140:55this time. like and I know like Julian Seyan and some other guys underassman will be eligible but it doesn't seem it's a type of year where it's like I'm

141:06sure like hopefully the number one number two quarterbacks will maybe be good but part part of I don't think sellers being in the class is is that

141:14big a cell um or Arch Manning frankly I'm not sure >> I say I don't know what they're gonna do but those those two teams at least

141:21giving to your contracts at least left more options on the table you know, for trades or anything than just the one year

141:29>> because I mean M. Jones is definitely a sellable piece.

141:32>> So, >> well, M. Jones was straight up shrewd.

141:35Like, that dude is going to get traded for something and like maybe a second round pick.

141:40>> He's an asset.

141:41>> Yeah.

141:43>> I think you got like if you're the Vikings and with the McCarthy little flashes, you you got to bring in

141:47somebody like a M. Jones and just be like, we have two outs, two outs to quarterback play. And they tried to be

141:54fair to the Vikings. They tried. I mean, Daniel Jones talked about that the the Vikings offered him more money, but he

142:00thought it was, this is how you knew Anthony Richardson was down bad is like Daniel Jones basically said, "I think I

142:05could beat out Anthony Richardson.

142:06That's why I signed here."

142:08Like it was between the tea leaves and he was right. He was right spoilers for the 2025 season. He he easily did.

142:16>> Yeah. He talked about the Vikings offering him more money to stay there and he was like, I got a I think I have

142:20a better chance to start with the Colts.

142:21That's why I took a job.

142:23I mean he Yeah, it's it's crazy. But yeah, but Brassette's gonna throw a lot of times here and uh his price is really

142:31good on DraftKings.

142:33>> His Price is good. You've you've been kind of the guy of like, "Hey, eventually this music's gonna stop."

142:39>> I don't know the gonna stop, dude.

142:41>> Apparently it's not, man. Apparently it's not.

142:43>> This is like a a New York uh EDM show.

142:48There's an afterparty, brother. We're We're dancing till noon, >> dude. I've been Aaron Paul in the the Aaron Paul meme. Like just

142:55see just keeps away. He's keep getting away with it, man.

142:59>> I'm the John Ham at the club meme.

143:01>> Yeah, >> I'm [laughter] not fighting this thing, man.

143:06>> The hilarious thing is like he just gets there. It's like the Jacob thing is like if you need 20 DraftKings points, he

143:12gets you 20 DraftKings points. Like I need 28. No man, I got you drafting >> because people are keep using his status

143:18at QB1 and every like and he just gets to like QB12 every week. That's where that's where the trade stops.

143:27>> McBride even with Do you care that Harrison's back for McBride? It's kind of like who of you is the X and then it

143:35doesn't really matter, right? The number two slashnumber one depending on the week is McBride.

143:40>> Yeah.

143:42Uh Michael, >> I mean the thing with McBride is just where we've been is just he's just do you have the luxury if you can fit him

143:47in you fit him in. It's just that when we t when we tend to save salary at the expense of pieces, typically tight end

143:53is the way to go. But this dude just dropped 37 on the Texans. Like to know like dude, whatever. He's running

144:05screens. He's running out of slot. Like it's >> Yeah. This is the closest thing I think we have to like nextgen Kelsey because

144:12like this dude maybe better because this dude plays in the run game too. But the quarterback he should if he's not a

144:20first round pick next year it's just the smashes the smashiest smash like the elite tight end stuff's hilarious because like it's happening right now.

144:28Like McBride is literally getting teams through these weeks. Like Kyle Pitts went nuts and Trey McBride teams are still getting through because 30 from a

144:36tight end is so awesome. Even if you have to pay a second round pick for it.

144:39>> To be fair, the the every spade flipped for him though. Every spade. Kyler got hurt. Like the Kyler can't throw in the

144:49middle.

144:49>> I'm sorry, but but his starting quarterback getting hurt is not like >> I know I know it's been helpful in this

144:56out.

144:57>> Marv's been out. The the >> doesn't matter because Wilson gets targeted 30% of the time.

145:01>> But I'm just saying everything everything still happened. Like then uh the defense >> the only thing that happened is this

145:06guy's the truth. Yeah, >> Trey Fry's awesome.

145:08>> Well, he also is good, but literally every Spades still the passing volume has been legit. I agree with that.

145:15>> He leads the NFL now in routes run >> per game.

145:18>> Yeah. Yeah. You're get you're getting that >> you're getting that drop back volume which has which is but >> I I am telling you what's going to

145:25happen. This is going to be I'm going to make the arguments for what's going to happen for the tear down.

145:29>> Uhhuh. Okay. that every running back got hurt and the defense fell apart. Kyler left the, you know, the receivers all

145:37were b the top receiver was banged up and like the team had to drop back the most in the NFL. Like this is what

145:44everyone's going to use to pull it down.

145:46>> Well, guess what? The Cardinals were the shudest team in football and they signed Jacobe Brassette to a two-year deal. So,

145:51we still got Jacobe. [laughter] >> Kyler's elsewhere.

145:55>> That's right. Conor, you can't count on James Conor. Yeah, >> clearly can't count on Trey Benson.

146:04>> And they just brought in Ken Dorsey as the new OC and are going to drop back 50 times. Ken Ken's actually

146:10thinks they didn't pass enough.

146:12>> No, that's the new O whoever the new OC is is going to pass way less and that'll be a bummer,

146:18>> dude. He still plays the Bengals next week, >> man. Dude's going to nuke. Yeah, >> McBride's going to win someone $2

146:28million and then we're gonna have to hear about how elite tight end doesn't work.

146:31>> Uh maybe Levitan and Silva, right?

146:33Aren't they in eighth in the main >> the Trey McBride team? I think they're eighth overall. I thought Levitan just tweeted this out. They have a team

146:41that's eighth in the main and it was a McBride first round team.

146:45>> I really I saw they had a team uh it's the team they drafted on stream with Leone and uh I think it's Leone,

146:51Levitan, and Silva. I'm almost positive it was a Trey McBride team in the first round.

146:56>> Nice. All right, there you go.

147:00>> Any thoughts on uh Michael Carter here?

147:04>> It's tough if if we knew he just had the same role that that we ended last week in. I would say sure, but he got priced

147:12up and that was air Amir Dimcato's first game back and he really didn't practice a lot either and Bam Knight left the

147:19game. So like do we see because we anytime that like they've had one of these guys it's never been a guy it's

147:26this guy plays really downs this guy plays passing downs right and it's kind of oscillated. So I just don't know I

147:31think that still exists in the range of outcomes is all I'm saying. I don't know like how bullish I am on just like him

147:37having the 80% of the offensive snaps after Bam Knight left is as static as we would love for it to believe and if I'm

147:44willing to pay that price for it. Also Atlanta pretty good against one receiving backs and the run in general.

147:50So, like you have to take a I think you have to take a step of faith. If he was like 4600, I'd be okay with it. I think

147:56the fact that he's 54, I'm like not I'm like that not that like into it.

148:03>> I agree.

148:05And like I kind of want to play the Cardinals through the passing game if I'm doing that.

148:09>> Yeah, of course.

148:11>> Um on the Falcons side, do you have any nits to pick here with Bejian Robinson?

148:16because obviously the Tyler Algier stuff is probably the biggest issue, but 90% of carries last week,

148:24>> 27% of the targets. Um, and like Algier has not been good this year. Uh, he's he's running back 44 in rush yards over

148:35expected per game, running back 42 in rush yards over expected per attempt, running back 34 in success rate. So, like the idea that he's kind of like

148:41your consistent short yardage guy, he's been worse than Bejian Robinson in success rate. Robinson's running back 25 there. Not not crazy there. Uh, but he

148:50breaks a ton of tackles. Running back won an elusive rating. He's uh really explosive as we know. He leads all running backs in yards per route run.

148:58So, he's an incredible receiver as well.

149:00Um, and in a weird way, I was kind of thrown out there in the walkthrough that like, okay, when you're trying to when

149:07you're trying to make the playoffs, you know, whatever, we'll play our guys.

149:11When you're trying to keep your job, you play Behan Robinson. And that's kind of where Raheem Morris is on the hot seat

149:17now. So, >> all of them. Zack Robinson, everybody.

149:21>> Well, Zack Robinson, I think, is gone no matter what. I don't see how he's back next year, but um, Morris might [clears throat] be able

149:28to survive. So yeah, I think uh I think they feed Robinson here and he is set up to absolutely smash.

149:36>> Yeah. Oh, 100 percent. Yeah, he's gonna be I would say probably the most popular guy on the slate. Uh well, he scored

149:43what it's funny because a lot of people have talked about the Jir Gibbs and the how he's had like those super spike

149:48weeks uh that have been gotten you by, but like Jir uh Bejian's like right behind him these games. I mean, he's

149:54gone 29 and a half PPR points or more in three of his past five games. Uh you're facing now an Arizona team that are

150:02allowing running backs 5.3 yards per carry to running backs in week 10.

150:05That's 30th. They're allowing the most rushing guards per game since week 10 to running backs. They're also 20th in receiving points allowed per game over

150:11that span. And they've allowed a league 10 touchdowns the running backs over that span. It's all there. It's all on the table for you. No no weather to

150:19worry about in this game. It's it's inside.

150:24Everything's there.

150:27Raiders at Texans.

150:29Uh, as >> you have a take on Kyle Pittz or no with are you?

150:37>> So, I can't remember if I mentioned this on the pod or just told you beforehand, but I I beat my cousin in a uh a dynasty

150:44league. This is like a a standard scoring dynasty league with twoe matchups. So, >> yeah. Yeah, >> this he's got like a crazy good team.

150:53Um, but the two-week match ups week 14 and 15 was the semi-final. So, he didn't have Christian McCaffrey in the first

151:00week and then in the second week in standard scoring, I put up a tight end score against him with three touchdowns

151:08and, you know, like 40 points or whatever, which it's just it's unfair and ridiculous. And, uh, so I'm now deciding now I'm in the championship.

151:18But I'm like, am I just not like at what point do I just not play Kyle Pitts? Like if Drake London is back, do I am I do I have to

151:27just put him in because he had this insane week? But I don't I don't feel that good about Kyle Pitts if Drake

151:32London's back. The concern I have with with Pitts is that the Falcons are going to run the ball and they're going to run the ball

151:42very effectively and they're a runbased team. Kurt Cousins was just efficient against the Bucks and they passed. But you, as we talked about for a while with

151:50the Panthers, like that's smart. You pivot to the pass against the Bucks.

151:54They had a 52% pass rate in each of their previous two games. They were 50% the week before that, 53, 54 the two

152:00weeks before that, and then they jumped to 69% against the Bucks. I think we're back down in the 50s probably this week.

152:06And I I like the the Falcons to win this game as well. So, um I think you know their expected pass rate is not going to

152:14be super high.

152:16If you look at the Cardinals defense, the pass defense, they're 31st in drop back success rate, but they're not allowing a ton of explosive plays. And

152:26they're just they're the type of defense where if you pass on them with high volume, you're going to put up production.

152:32But they're like, it's more like, hey, if if London's back to the extent that you're getting like possession receiver type of volume, it's probably going to

152:40London, not Pitts. And the big play stuff, you know, this isn't that's not the big weakness of the defense. And so,

152:49does Pitts get enough volume? It's just like a a really kind of clear spot where we could see like a very middling

152:56passing line here. Um, if London is out, then he becomes a smash because you get the London role in in a tight end

153:04eligibility. So, >> yeah, I I'm all in on Pitts if if we get kind of another week of the same stuff.

153:11But, um, I guess with the the DNP and he's definitely going to play stuff >> weird.

153:19>> I just want to see like what what are we expecting to get from London this week?

153:23Is it like a half?

153:26It It's It's like directly correlated to how much I think London plays because um if he's like going to be in a limited

153:31role then I think you know Pitts is Pitts is pretty strong.

153:38>> Love [snorts] it.

153:39>> It's Michael. It's Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison kind of >> right. It's that's what it is. It's like I think we could just see them be like,

153:47"All right, thanks Pitts. London's back."

153:50Um, but I I probably will start pitts against my cousin for people who are wondering.

153:58Um, all right, Raiders. When I wrote this up, they had an implied team total of 11.75.

154:04I think it's since jumped to 12.

154:07>> So, congratulations to the Las Vegas Raiders.

154:12>> You don't have a sub 12 point implied team total. No, you do. It's back down.

154:17>> Yeah, I'm 75. Kendall Hinton is your starting quarterback.

154:23>> Wait, is that right?

154:25>> No. No. That was like the last time whenever everyone asked like what's the lowest implied team total? Like that's the answer to the question is that the

154:31that Kendall Hinton team had the lowest implied total.

154:34>> I was like did I miss Gino Smith being ruled out and they went to No, >> I forgot I forgot who who Kendall Hinton

154:39was. He was the the co quarterback >> co receiver who was put in a terrible spot. It's a bummer that like he got

154:46dunked on for this, but like because imagine anybody being thrown to that spot. Yeah. It wasn't his fault at all.

154:51>> Uh they were like, "Dude, you got to play."

154:52>> Literally not a quarterback.

154:54>> Yeah. Yeah. That's crazy, man. But >> shout out Kendall Hen.

155:01>> So Gino Smith's been the worst quarterback in EPA per game, uh of anyone who has started for more than one

155:07year in the NFL.

155:09Um, and he'll be back this week and that's a good thing because Kenny Picket had the same level of efficiency last

155:17week with an a much worse success rate.

155:20Uh, the problem for Gino Smith is when you look at his season, okay, he's been good a few different times, but it was

155:29against the Patriots in week one before they had Christian Gonzalez. Uh, you know, new coaching staff. They're trying to figure stuff out. So, he's pretty

155:38good 85th percentile. Would you say >> and sometimes and sometimes in the beginning of these NFL seasons like [ __ ]

155:43like that happens like >> Yeah, that happens pretty consistently that something weird that something look that looks insane happens. Um he was

155:5287th percentile against the Commanders.

155:53We know they stink. 60th percentile in the paper play against the Titans.

155:57They're the Titans. And then 79th percentile against the Jaguars uh who are are pretty vulnerable against the pass. Otherwise, it's just like anyone

156:06who's decent at all, he's just been bad.

156:10Um, Chargers, Broncos, Browns, he was terrible against the Cowboys, awful against the Chiefs, bad against the Bears, bad against the Colts, bad

156:19against the Chargers again.

156:22So, it's like we we've yet to see Gino do anything except in spots where it's like, yeah, you could you could maybe

156:28see a bad quarterback getting here, right? He's Quinn Eurs, but old. He's old Quinners. He was my closest comp for Quinn Yurs. It all comes full circle. Uh

156:39he gets the Texans defense at the best pass defense in the league.

156:43>> Is 12 points too high? [laughter] >> Yes.

156:48>> Yes.

156:49>> What would you set this line at for implied team total?

156:53>> Six and a half.

156:57>> I was going to say nine and a half.

157:02Six. Do they get three field goals or a field goal and a touchdown >> cuz three field goals doesn't get you.

157:08>> He's going to he's going to get sacked seven times in this game.

157:12>> Just seven?

157:13>> No, I don't know. Did you have Colt Miller coming back?

157:17>> I want to see Cam Miller. That's the >> I want to see Cam Miller, too. We talked about this a couple weeks ago. Like just

157:22play >> Cam Miller. How are you not playing Cam Miller?

157:25>> Cuz Pete, >> come on, man. Dude, when you look when you take the 10,000 foot step back on how the Raiders like built their team

157:35this off seasonason, like it's just like it's literally the uh uh the the meme of like, who could have done this? Like,

157:41who could have done this? They hire like a near 80-year-old coach. They pay the most money to get Chip Kelly to leave

157:48Ohio State. U the most money for any coordinator. They draft a running back at six with no offensive lineman. Uh like it's like,

157:56>> by the way, all of this had like universal approval.

157:58>> They traded for criticizing them.

158:00>> They traded a draft pick for Gino and then extended him.

158:04>> Yeah.

158:05>> Like it's like literally when you take a step back, it's like, "Oh yeah, that was all dumb." That's all real dumb. Like

158:10how do we not like all this was real dumb? Like how' none of [laughter] this work out? Like >> the football cognizant was was all for

158:18this. I I felt like I was sort of um along for the ride, but that I got convinced. I was like, "Yeah, I guess

158:25this is good." Gino Smith stability smart. Chip Kelly back in the NFL.

158:30>> Pete Carol. Yeah. Like everybody likes Pete Carol. Doesn't matter. It doesn't matter that he's old because he looks young and he's he's got energy.

158:38>> He takes his shirt off.

158:40>> He takes his shirt off.

158:43Would an old person take their shirt off?

158:45>> No.

158:46Absolutely not. I just watched that Hot Ones at Woody Harelson and they talked about the movie they made together and he said McConey was just like out there

158:53shirt off and he was like once McConey took his shirt off, he was like, "I'm not taking my shirt off." Like

159:00Pete's like Pete's abs. He's like, "Screw it, man. I'm taking my shirt off as much as possible."

159:04>> But that's the thing. It's like you get what they didn't account for is that there's I'm too old to take my shirt off

159:13and then I'm so old I'm taking my shirt off. And they didn't realize that >> he stopped giving a single [ __ ] He's he

159:23that I'm taking my shirt off because I'm too old and my son's coached the offensive line now. That's that's what they got with B [laughter]

159:32>> and coaching that offensive line. Like it'd be great if like you had like the 1987 Washington Redskins offensive line or something, but like this like coaches

159:41themselves [laughter] this Raiders offensive line.

159:45>> Yeah.

159:47>> Yeah. Big big whiff. I mean, and I wasn't I was in I was in. I just wanted I wanted good things for Bowowers. So, I

159:54basically was like, "Oh, everyone's thinking this is good and it's better than it could be for sure."

159:59>> Quarterback upgrade, >> you know.

160:01>> Oh, man. The the biggest thing this season is the I'll take back is the football Illuminati trying to tell us

160:06that Gino Smith was a top 10 quarterback on every like platform.

160:10>> Well, good thing it was just that one time and not for like five straight years. [laughter] I mean, but it literally is when you

160:19like movement when you really step back and put pen to paper like all the moves they've made row, it's like >> like this all happened in one off

160:27season.

160:28>> Junior Smith is like quarterback 20 in EPA per game for like four straight seasons and actually he's awesome.

160:37>> I don't know, man. But I got nothing good to say about any of these guys. Who like like what are you doing with the

160:42Raiders at this point? Like I get it.

160:44You're probably playing Bowers if you're still alive.

160:48>> You're just praying that Bowowers gets there. And this is what I did in the walkthrough. I little I made a little

160:53prayer. I said, "What if we just have them be the Cardinals? Just be the Cardinals. Just pass it an just an

161:02insane amount of times." And if that happens, maybe Bowowers gets there. We don't have to worry about anybody else.

161:09Trey Tucker literally had zero yards per hour run last week on I mean Reeves.

161:16We almost didn't cover this.

161:18>> This is the ultimate cardio >> player we've ever seen. This is 100% route participation.

161:25>> And he did this last year. He also did this last year. I think he led the NFL in routes run last year.

161:32>> I believe that because he was uh he he was like yeah he was a a full-time player for them. So

161:39zero I mean he hasn't done anything in in weeks but literally zero yards per hour.

161:43>> No he had that commander game that one commander game >> is he so Chris Hogan was the original guy >> he was the original cardio guy

161:51>> out there doing cardio. So is is Trey Tucker Chris Hogan's won the Mount Rushmore.

161:57>> MBS is also MBS is an alltime he like took MBS had the throne like he like got the torch like the baton like the

162:06>> is is Tucker Mount Rushmore cardio.

162:09>> Tucker Yeah, Tucker is new MVS like 100%. like there's >> he did things for like two weeks and and

162:17people kind of bought in a little but um >> well I mean he actually scored some touchdowns those weeks he was he was

162:24useful.

162:25>> No the commander he had the three he had the three touchdown game against commanders and then he had one more

162:29touchdown the rest of the year.

162:32>> Was that against the Titans or was that >> he was all right. So he was the wide receiver five last year. He ran 639

162:38routes 0.84 yards per route run. He was targeted on 12.7% of his routes.

162:45>> Yeah. Yeah, >> he is.

162:48>> 100% round participation in zero yards per hour run is special stuff.

162:52>> I mean, they had a special game last week.

162:57>> Well, I've got news about this week.

162:59It's not gonna be any better.

163:02>> Just pass a lot, please.

163:04>> Just pass a lot.

163:05>> Anything for Genty? I mean, Genty, like where did you have Genty ranked for season? Obviously not doing DFS stuff with Genty, but

163:12>> No, I I had him as like a backend RB2 like that line. It's just such a It's such a tough spot, too, just to have any

163:21belief. Colt Miller's coming back. Did I mention that? That's like all I got.

163:24That's like all I got. That's all I got.

163:26>> That is bullish. That is genuinely quite bullish.

163:30>> That's like my thing. It's like, well, K Miller's coming back.

163:35>> It's like a >> Is that Is that definite? Because he's coming off IR, right? Yeah. Limited limited >> that's all I wrote up. I was like Colt's

163:44gonna but I mean dude they're on the road >> if they activate him. That's big.

163:49>> Like how how are we like that? We're not that excited, right? Like >> No, no, no. We're not excited at all. I

163:56think the only excitement would be on the Texans side and just hoping they can be efficient enough to take advantage of

164:00a really >> The Raiders don't have a run. The Raiders The Raiders don't have a run of 20 or more yards in their past 10 games.

164:09Come on.

164:11Like usually in the NFL like you accidentally like something happens like >> Yeah.

164:19Yeah, that's true. Some [laughter] That's so bad. When when even like an accident would have normally occurred.

164:28It's the Jet. It's the Jets not having a pick, right? Like nor like how is that possible?

164:34They average 0.96 points per drive on the road this year.

164:42>> Oh, here's a great Raiders stat points per >> Oh, yeah.

164:46>> Points per drive. So, they less than a point per drive. Uh here's a real good Raider stat that kind of this might this

164:52might say it all.

164:53>> They've scored 76 fewer points than their implied total this season, >> which is by far the worst of the NFL.

165:03Like I mean this week they they can only score 12 fewer than their employee total this week.

165:08>> They can only finish 12er.

165:11>> Oh god, dude. [laughter] It's just so bad. Like what are you like what is there to be excited about? Um yeah,

165:16let's just talk about the Texans.

165:18>> Well, the efficiency here has to be really strong. It looks like Woody Marks is going to play. Um, but I don't think that really ma like my

165:29thing with the Texans is basically, hey, in case you didn't realize, the Texans actually do have a slight lean to the

165:34pass and you can attack the Raiders through the air.

165:38>> So, I think that passing volume won't be like atrociously bad here, but at the same time, like they could play a they

165:46could have like a 2% POE and pass 48% of the time.

165:49>> Correct.

165:50>> Right.

165:51>> So, there's not going to be bullish than we were last week. Remember last week and I played a ton of Straoud stacks and

165:56I was the only one but like it's not like we called this but we were bullish on the >> we were bullish

166:01>> the Straoud stacks one it was leverage on Woody Marks who was going to be popular and then Woody Marks did his

166:06thing where he left in the first quarter and then we felt real good after that and uh but this week I just don't we

166:11were we were into him because the Cardinals passing game though >> as well >> the Cardinals passing game and >> and like the keeping the clock rolling

166:20keeping you know keeping some points in there. I I don't trust the Raiders to do the same thing. I want them to do the

166:25same. I'm not as bullish. I think you can still stream Straoud if you're, you know, whatever. But I'm less bullish in

166:31the him getting to what he got us last week because of the Raiders.

166:37>> Me too.

166:39>> You play Neo Collins, play the dudes.

166:41Daltton Schultz has been real solid.

166:42We've talked about him, but >> Daltton Schultz has been good.

166:46>> He's legitimately good.

166:49>> Yeah, Nico's a wide receiver. I have him as a low-end wide receiver one. I didn't have anyone actually as a wide receiver

166:55one. I just have >> Yeah.

166:57>> Uh that's kind of how I tiered it. But yeah, lowend wide receiver one for me.

167:02Uh Daltton Schultz, I think it's like tight end one.

167:07Uh you're kind of betting on efficiency, but he's been very efficient and I think the Texans will be very efficient again.

167:14So yeah, like I have him above Tyler Warren, Dallas Goddard, Hunter Henry, Joan Johnson. I do like >> I did I did have him over Kobby

167:24Parkinson too. So luckily I know it's a part of that windfall that happened yesterday.

167:31>> Yeah, >> I unfortunately had Kobe Parkinson as like a fringed like startable with Adams out, but I had like Schultz over him,

167:38Waller over him. So Love I had Lovelin over him. So little safe still. We didn't need to Ferguson >> below him. I actually had Parkinson

167:49ahead of Ferguson.

167:51>> I mean, you should have.

167:52>> Yeah.

167:54>> Um All right. Anything else on this game?

167:58>> No. I mean, it's like the same thing.

168:00It's Yeah. Play those dudes. No, no idea about what's going to happen with the backfield, though. I think even if Woody

168:04Marks plays, we're flying a little bit blind. I think that this coaching staff like they were pretty like they the way

168:12Demetica Ryan talked about Jawar Jordan who I want to call Jawar by the way which is a really would be really cool

168:18phonetically. Jawar is an amazing name instead of Jawar.

168:22>> Yeah because that's how I I went because I was you know I thought it was the H was before the W but W's before the H.

168:28>> So it is Jawar Jawar.

168:31>> Jawar sounds amazing. Like I wish I I I would be I would tell people my name is Jawar.

168:37Sounds like a great >> But what happened is people would start saying it faster, Jiar. And they just get to you have to you'd have to insist

168:45that they hit that W real hard.

168:48>> But he talked him up. They they actually immediately promoted him to the active roster on Monday. They were like >> because remember this is the first dude

168:54that ran for more than 80 yards in a game for them all year.

168:58He he had a 27% success rate though, so it was like very boom bust.

169:03>> So >> I just wonder if it's going to be if it's because remember Woody Marks hasn't been as good as anyone thinks he's been

169:09either. I just wonder if it's a mess.

169:10That's basically all I'm saying. I just wonder if it's not.

169:14>> Yeah. What does Dead Man never die? Like this shit's been a mess all year.

169:18>> Correct.

169:18>> It's been a mess since >> that's all I'm saying is just because Woody Mark for Mixon to not play.

169:23>> Yeah.

169:24>> They brought in Nick Chub. Like they haven't they haven't figured this stuff out like all year. This this is a team

169:29that like legitimately could make the Super Bowl that the defense is that good and they just never figured out running back.

169:36>> Correct.

169:37>> Bree Hall was available all year to anyone that wanted him and you had to >> All you needed was a third round pick

169:44>> and your plan was Jawar or Jordan. Great job.

169:49>> It's all you need.

169:50>> The plan was actually Woody Marks I guess but I just wanted to say Jawar.

169:53>> Yeah, they traded up for Woody Marks too.

169:57H [sighs and clears throat] yeah, >> deep running back class.

170:01>> I want to say Jawara a lot again. Just want to make sure. [laughter] There's a couple names like I like saying Manangai

170:06a lot. Like >> Manangi is a fun one.

170:08>> And Pacheco. I like saying Pacheco.

170:10That's We're going to be stopped saying that probably.

170:12>> Shout out to Connor Rogers who called himself a Kyle Manungai.

170:17>> Right. That's the Manungai hive. It's >> pretty good.

170:21>> I like it. Manangai just fun.

170:25Uh, all right.

170:26>> Steelers at Lions, last game here. Uh, let's talk Steelers first quickly. Um, do we think they're going to be pushed enough to

170:38where, you know, guys like DK Metaf? Um, we can't really do the tight ends because they're all split. I want to

170:44play Darno Washington.

170:46>> We wish. Just make the whole plane out of Darnell Washington.

170:49>> I Dude, they have all these guys signed next year. Brian, Janu, they're all there.

170:57>> We deserve Darnell Washington in a starting role.

171:00>> Yes.

171:02>> I mean, and not this year. I'm fine waiting. I'll wait one more year. But come on. 2026, we should have Darnell

171:07Washington as a starting tight end. This dude's awesome. He's so fun.

171:10>> Why Why couldn't have that part of that trade, Darnell Washington went for Johnny?

171:17Like, and Darnell and Mike McDaniel had Darnell Washington.

171:22My dream is now for Darnell Washington to go to LA and play for Shawn McVey.

171:28>> Yeah, because they're just gonna start they're gonna literally just play 11 tight ends.

171:33>> A 10 quarterback and 10 tight ends.

171:35>> It's quarterback.

171:37>> They're going to make Puka switch to tight end.

171:39>> Well, people forget like when they were when they were playing 13 last night, it was really 14 because Puka is such a

171:43demon. Like Puka out here Puka's out here blocking his ass off too. Like >> right, dude. Darnell Washington, who's a free agent in 2027,

171:54>> playing for the Rams.

171:56That sounds awesome, right?

171:57>> That's the saddest thing he ever told me, though.

172:01>> Free agent.

172:02>> It's sad because how much I want it to happen.

172:05>> Well, cuz I want Darn Like Darnell Washington like >> Oh, it's in 2027.

172:09>> Yeah. I got We got to wait like Yeah.

172:12Arthur, he's with Arthur Smith. Arthur Smith's not getting fired. Like, no.

172:17They're going to make the playoffs, >> right? Well, hopefully.

172:20>> So, Jonnu Smith is signed. How when do you think Jonnu Smith's contract?

172:25>> No, they extended him as part of the trade. That's the reason he got traded is because the Dolphins weren't going to

172:30extend him.

172:32>> On the on the Steelers books, when do you think Johnny Smith has a deal through?

172:37>> I can't remember how long they throw it out. It was so a while ago. But is it Did he get like a three

172:41>> 2030 >> cuz there's two out the real the real the real out is after next year.

172:49>> Uh no wait this is Tua. I have Tua's contract pulled up.

172:53>> You have so >> I just gave that just literally gave you misinformation. Uh that was Tua. But that's actually >> I wish you gave me misinformation on

173:01Darn Washington.

173:02>> No. So he's actually a free agent in 2027 as well. Johnu.

173:08God, that would be so funny if Johnny was signed through 2030. Um, >> it would be especially they they >> has one more year left,

173:17>> but they traded also for Jon not to use him. He's never had a role from the beginning of the season.

173:24>> Pat Frymouth is signed.

173:27>> He got an extension last year, too. He got an extension this off seasonason, too. This is the whole team, man.

173:35They could they could cut Friouth.

173:39They could save like $4 million by cutting FM after the year.

173:45>> Somewhere else too, >> maybe. But >> if they cut Fri, we could have D Washington in a starting role because

173:51they're kind of phasing Jonnu out.

173:53>> Yeah, they just hand off to him.

173:58I hate it. I hate everything about him.

174:01But >> either way, Darnell Walsh is super cool.

174:03Should get the football a lot more.

174:04>> He's super cool. And I love that like we're just all including Darnell. Like everybody's like, "Yeah, you're like 310 pounds. It's fine. It's great."

174:13>> Pretend you're 265.

174:14>> I don't know. Anyone tackles him. We talk about it every week.

174:18>> I want to talk about >> We were the We were the show that kind of talked about him early on in that

174:22Bengals game. I was like, "Dude, this is the week like he's gonna this is where it starts to take over."

174:26>> I want to Here's what I want to say about Darnell Washington. Darnell Washington 5200.

174:31Pretty interesting. That's what I want to say. Help me say that. NFL >> 32. 3200.

174:37>> No, 52. I want to say Darnell Washington's only only 5200.

174:41>> Yeah, that's what I want to say. Yes, >> that's what I want to say.

174:43>> Good. I would love for that to be >> Help me say that.

174:47>> That's how excited I am. Maybe maybe we get Frymouth cut and we get Darnell started, but but we're stuck he's stuck

174:55on the Steelers uh at the very least for next year.

174:58>> Yeah. And [snorts] they'll have Kyler Murray, so >> [laughter] >> I mean, the Steelers, the Kyler, we didn't talk about it during that whole

175:07segment, but like this is the most Steelers destination ever. Like, there's no way that Kyler is at a Steeler.

175:14>> Kyler with DK could be fun because he's real tall, you know? He's he's outside.

175:18It could work, right? Although, is this just Marvin Harrison again? Kind of is.

175:24>> Well, if if Dave Canal has any foresight, they get Kyler and they run the trench coat quarterback. Were they wrong? [laughter]

175:31>> Yeah, >> we have any any foresight here of something that could work.

175:37>> The problem with the trench coat quarterback is Bryce Young has this little pop gun arm. So, >> I'm not sure what I think what we might

175:45need is to do three quarterbacks and have what we need is maybe JJ McCarthy up top because he's got enough arm strength that he does if if you only

175:56had J.J. McCarthy's arm and he couldn't use his legs cuz uh Collinssworth talked about his form's all messed up anyway.

176:03So you actually just want him arm throwing and you can have Bryce Young's job is to make sure we get enough like

176:10>> torso rotation.

176:11>> Oh dude, if if McCarthy was a pitcher, he would have already had two Tommy Johns like >> Oh yeah.

176:18Labroom surgery and there'd be a bunch of stuff going on. Bunch of stuff.

176:22>> 100%.

176:24>> 100%.

176:26But I think we figured it out. It's It's Kyler on the bottom for the last >> He's literally Rick Vaughn like from the

176:31movie Major League. Like that's >> Yeah. Yeah. Maybe take a little heat off there, JJ. Just an idea.

176:39>> But yeah, I think the Steelers I think the Steelers throw though.

176:43>> You do? Okay. I do because uh and we'll talk about this because I think their defensive injuries are a problem for

176:51this ga for them and Rogers has played well these past two weeks because I said the beard's getting darker, you know, like always gauge Rogers like

177:02how well he's playing by the color of his beard. It gets darker the better he plays.

177:05>> Dude, this dude is going out of his way to talk about Kenneth Gainwell at every stop. Like he's never liked a human

177:13before. I've never seen Aaron Rogers even talk about another human more than Kenneth Gainwell.

177:18>> In the Rogers interviews recently, I found him less off-putting. I have to say like the way you talked about Rivers, I was like that's I I feel like

177:25you he's genuinely rooting for Philip Rivers in this crazy situation. He feels it felt like, you know, he felt some kinship with like his fellow old

177:33quarterback and he's like I and I was like I kind of I'm enjoying watching this interview of Aaron. I'm just like

177:40watching Aaron Rogers talking right now and it's not making me irritated. That's bullish, I think.

177:46>> Yeah, [laughter] >> because I didn't like in 2012 my brother who's a Vikings fan was completely out on Aaron Rogers. He's like he's a huge

177:56douche and I was just like what are you talking about? Like Rogers is I have no like opinion about Aaron Rogers as a

178:01person. And you know I've since gotten one [laughter] but >> he forced one on people. he forced one on. But if we go back to him just

178:11playing quarterback and looking kind of fun out there and talking about other quarterbacks and and wishing them well, you know, maybe we get some passing

178:20production [laughter] there. That's what I'm saying.

178:23>> He's played really well the past two weeks and this Detroit secondary is still a problem. And I think the fact now that

178:31the >> Steelers pass rush is basically going to be nuked here, >> they're going to be pushed. They're I think they're going to have to score

178:38points unless they just choose that they don't want to score score points. They choose that door. Uh but I believe they're going to be pushed to score

178:45points here. And Rogers uh they've been better against like man coverage of late like these past two weeks. Like Rogers and DK Metaf had like really bad like it

178:53was an outlier for DK Metaf was like why is DK Mechaf so shitty against man coverage? Like his whole career has been

178:58based on being like bigger and faster than everybody and he said this is where we want him. like AJ Brown, it was like

179:03the same thing. And then like he had terrible man coverage splits and he's been good the past two weeks. He has

179:09>> uh 169 yards receiving against man coverage this year. DK Metaf 108 of those have come the past two games.

179:16>> Wow. His his ADOT's been up recently, uh which is, you know, obviously quite bullish for him as a deep threat. 14.8

179:23against the Ravens, 11.3 against the Dolphins. The Steelers were like crazy pass heavy for Arthur Smith two weeks ago against the Ravens with a 17% pass

179:33rate of expected and 29% on first and 10 in like a crucial game for their season that they won. So this is I I mean I

179:44think that and and Rogers looked really good in that game. Uh he was 79th percentile in EPA paper play there >> and then 85th last week. So, um,

179:53>> he's he's over eight yards per pass attempt in each of the past two weeks.

179:56It's the first time he's done backto-back weeks of that. And then he's 60% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield these past two games.

180:05Before that, he was only ahead. He was at 38.7% ahead of only Cam Ward and Caleb Williams. So, like he's found something

180:13here.

180:15>> I think he's found heart. I think he's out there. Oh, it's like the literally This is literally the Grinch Stole

180:21Christmas.

180:22>> This is the Grinch, man. Yeah, his heart grew 10 times.

180:28>> This is 100% it.

180:30>> It's the Grinch.

180:32>> Did he get a dog recently?

180:33>> It is.

180:34>> Maybe he got a dog.

180:35>> He might have gotten a dog.

180:36>> Max helped unlock.

180:37>> He's Kenneth Gainwell.

180:38>> His empathy.

180:39>> Not to compare Kenneth Gwell to dog like he's so excited about Kenneth Gainwell.

180:42Like >> Yeah, man. Maybe that is what it is. is like what I here's what I actually think it is. He has not been pressured a ton

180:54recently. He's not been pressured a ton all year because he gets the ball out so quick, but he's been able to actually or

181:00been willing to throw downfield a little bit more. He now gets a Lions defense that ranks 27th in pass rush win rate,

181:0720th in quick pressure, and they are allowing plays downfield. So, this is a this is a spot where I think Rogers, you

181:16know, should have a little bit of that spark left. Like what I think the issue for Rogers is when he ends up in spots

181:24where there's the threat of pressure. It just it's like the most like kind of like there's nothing left in the tank

181:31football where it's like I'm just getting the ball out so quick because I'm not going to be getting >> touched. I don't want touched.

181:37>> Yeah. I'm not going to get touched.

181:39That's not going to be happening. and you know, at worst maybe my one of my offensive linemen will jump on me, but

181:46I'm not going to get hit by the opponent. So, he's going to he's going to get the ball out too quick, but I

181:50don't think this is one of those spots where like he has to be overly afraid and they will get pushed. We just saw

181:55them actually pass, you know, in a in a situation where they really needed to get the win. This game doesn't have like

182:02huge playoff implications for them because I think they just need to beat the Ravens.

182:05>> They need to beat the Ravens. Yeah.

182:06>> Yeah. So, >> that's the one wild card here. But but I'm thinking about the Steelers here as the Cardinals, another Cardinals team. Just help the

182:18Lions put up points. Correct. I don't care that much about the Steelers to be honest. I'm not trying to play DK Metaf.

182:26Um I'm not I'm not trying to play Jaylen Warren because >> No.

182:30>> You know, >> because he's not got Kenneth Gainwell.

182:33Yeah.

182:34>> But I'm not I'm not confident enough in Gainwell yet either. No, he's the RB5 now in target share. Uh, which is crazy.

182:41And he leads all running backs now in target rate per out.

182:46>> Metap's only 5,400.

182:48>> Yeah, I think he's fine.

182:49>> I think he's fine. He's He's also projecting his chalk, though, so I'm not super excited about it.

182:54>> That is Yeah, >> you don't want to play Steel Steelers chalk ever.

182:58>> Steelers chalk sounds like a bad time, but it can help us play Lions chalk. And I'm much more into Lions chalk. Do you

183:05know why I'm into Lions chalk ribs?

183:07>> Please tell me.

183:09>> Cuz they're our wagon of the week.

183:11>> This is our wagon, baby. The wagon of the week.

183:13>> The [music] team's just rolling right now. This team is just their wagon.

183:17>> They are [ __ ] wagon. We're going to have a nice old picnic. Load that wagon up. Like we're whatever you need to put

183:22in that wagon.

183:23>> Their wagon.

183:24>> Yeah, this is our wagon of the week, baby.

183:26>> What does that mean? What does wagon mean?

183:31>> I forgot. I should bring it back to the segment every time. Like, you know, >> I love it. I love it. [laughter] I love

183:36the Christmas Christmas cowboy. We need to get like a little uh little holly.

183:42>> Yeah. Yeah. Just a little something off of it.

183:44>> Yeah.

183:45>> Yeah. I got to utilize it these last two weeks. We only got two weeks left. I gota use that it

183:50>> one week left in about 10 minutes.

183:52>> That's true.

183:5410 minutes gener generous here.

183:56>> 10 minutes. I know. Maybe.

183:59>> Although we're Yeah. Yeah. There was a point earlier where I looked up and we had one game left and we were at like

184:032:30 and somehow we're at three and I was like >> I got loose. I I I we started going on a

184:07bunch of tangent because I realized I was I was in no danger of of missing my my heart out. So we I got a little

184:13loosey goosey there for a minute.

184:15>> Um Lions implied team total 29.5.

184:20Man, where kick us off here on the Lions.

184:23>> Yeah, Lions uh pretty fun here. Well, as in total for the game environment, uh what's fun is big plays, right? That's

184:30how we get here in this game. Lions are second in the NFL in plays now of 30 or more yards and they've allowed the most

184:35plays of 30 or more yards.

184:37>> But it all starts here at the start of this game with what the Steelers are entering this game with. And I did just

184:42check TJ Watt officially out. Nick Herbig doubtful Jays Pierre out. So >> okay, >> we're we're missing

184:51>> a full-time corner. a pretty good pass rusher in TJ Watt and the number one edge in pass rush win rate and basically held that position

185:02all season in Nick Herbig. He doesn't he's not like a full-time player in terms of snaps, but he's had a massive

185:08impact. Uh and so they're down two pass rushers now. And the Steelers defense is built on the idea that they can generate

185:19quick pressure. They're fourth in quick pressure rate. And the whole thing stems from their ability to do that. If you pull out those pass rushers, um it's

185:29just a it's complete. It fundamentally changes the defense. And I don't and this is not a defense known for creativity or week- toeek scheming. It's

185:38like that it's a defense that does what it does and now they can't do what they do.

185:43>> No. And uh we know if you're not going to breathe on Jerro. So So just some context before we get to the golf stats.

185:49When the Pittsburgh Steelers do not pressure the opposing quarterback, they allow 7.6 yards for pass attempt. That's

185:5523rd in the NFL. Um, and they've allowed 21 passing touchdowns, which is 26th in the NFL when they don't get pressure.

186:06And compare that to, like you said, when you when you do get pressure for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They go to 5.6

186:12yards per pass attempt, which is sixth in the NFL. uh they only allow a 49% completion rate uh when they get

186:18pressure. Uh this is a huge huge deal.

186:22And then you know when you don't touch Jared Goff or you allow him to operate in clean pockets, he actually has been

186:27better against pressure. But the big thing is when you don't pressure Jared Goff ever, second in the NFL completion rate, fourth in yards or pass attempt,

186:34second in touchdown rate. Like if you're gonna let Jared Goff stand back there clean at home in Detroit, man, good luck. Hats off to you.

186:44Yeah, I I I think that's exactly right.

186:46Like he's just going to be the best the best chance they have of like limiting golf, I think, is

186:57we give them the presentation.

187:00We We go around right to all these teams and we tell them to stop stopping the run.

187:06>> Stop stopping the run.

187:08>> This is We're going to build We're going to build a a whole thing on this the offseason.

187:13Stop stopping the run, NFL.

187:17>> It's the Don Draper meme. [laughter] Just stop stopping the run because I actually don't think it will work. Like in this [laughter] case, like stop

187:26stopping the run's a terrible idea when you're facing Jir Gibbs. Like it's not going to be good at all.

187:32>> He's just gonna go nuts.

187:34>> Yeah, that's their only hope though.

187:36>> [laughter] >> But that I mean if you if you want to contain Goff, you just have to let Gibbs go and go insane, which is he's going to

187:43do. He's gonna he's going to run all over them. I I mean, here's what I'll say for the Steelers. Like, they do they

187:51have Cameron Hayward, they have Alex Highmith, they they do have two other solid pass rushers. Do you think there's a chance they can still get pressure

187:59here? The the Lions offensive line has not been what it once was.

188:03Yeah, it's just it's just the you know, Herbig being the efficient pass rusher and then Watt kind of the volume guy. I

188:09mean, it's literally that the top two guys in quarterback hits uh and sacks on the team are gone for this game. So,

188:16>> Right. Right.

188:18>> It's just hard to manufacture that uh with with other guys. Um that's what makes it tough. But maybe the run

188:25defense is still okay. They I don't know. That's that's why >> isn't good. I mean, it's it's it's okay.

188:32It's but they're like 28th in EP allowed per rush, 20th in in rushing success rate. Like this is not a good run

188:37defense. And >> no >> Steelers just if you want to, you can just come in and be like, we're just going to dominate this game with with

188:46like a heavy dose of the run. I I think the line the Lions came if John Morton was running the offense still, they'd

188:52have like a minus 12% passer expected and just like completely pound the rock.

188:57David Montgomery would be getting involved. I think >> I think Dan Campbell will take a little bit like he'll have a lean to the run,

189:05maybe a positive pass expected on first and 10 though and basically do what they did against the Rams or they were minus

189:115% overall and 7% on first and 10 which is kind of a a Dan Campbell type of approach where you you prioritize the

189:18pass in neutral situation. um kind of sh like Shane Styen does this too, but you have a lean to the run overall and

189:26that's going to work like super well in this in this spot. Um and the big plays I mean the one thing I would note from

189:34the big plays perspective is that Amanra St. Brown had a 40% targets per out run last week and is Amanra is an efficiency

189:42play, not a volume play. He >> Oh yeah, >> he can consolidate volume. he can get like half the targets almost. Um, so we

189:51don't even need that much drop back volume because he's so good at getting the targets. Uh, so he's he's a smash

189:56here. Jameson Williams, though, is like a a very intriguing play as a splash play type of um receiver in this in this

190:03game. So, I pulled it real fast just to just so we don't have to guess. I we don't have to assume. Can Cam Hayward

190:09and uh well there's there's like no sample with both Watt and Herbig off the field, but with both I have the separate

190:16splits. So with TJ Watt off the field this year, the Steelers are 31st in completion rate allowed. Uh the highest they've allowed the highest yards per

190:24pass and they're 20th in touchdown rate.

190:27Uh and with Herbick off the field, they're 31st touchdown rate allowed. So they have not been able to really manufacture even when one a guy when one

190:35guy >> You need both on the field.

190:37>> Yeah.

190:37>> Wow.

190:38So, >> man, that's that's that's a really good find. Wow.

190:44>> Yeah, it's not great. It's not great for the >> It is great if we're trying to play Lions, though, man.

190:51>> Yeah, the [clears throat] wag the wagon is going to be chalk. Everyone is on This is a band wagon. Everyone's on this

190:56wagon.

190:57>> Yeah, everyone's here.

190:58>> We've got Gibbs, Amanra, Jameson.

191:01They're all going to be chalky this week. What what is your if you're like I mean first of all what is your approach

191:07to this game in DFS um are you at all worried that it's going to be chalky?

191:13>> Um yeah I mean just the fact that it's be so owned. I'm curious to see like how the receiver stuff does play out. I mean

191:20Jameson got a little bit of a bump but yeah he's going to be popular still. Um yeah I still I think golf doubles are

191:26still my preferred way to play it. And like again it's terrifying right? It's always terrifying to leave Gibbs on the table, but I do think if you're forcing

191:33me, if I'm making lineups where I think Achan is potentially leverage on one of the guys, I think it would be more Gibbs

191:40than Bejan of the Lesser of Evils. And it's just because the Lions are a bad running team and they have been. So like

191:48if Gibbs doesn't have a home run, which he can absolutely get, by the way, he can have this 60 yard touchdown. But

191:54yeah, >> the Lions are 28th in success rate rushing. Uh Gibbs over the past three weeks is only at 3.3 yards per carry.

192:02He's now rushed for fewer than four yards per carry uh in five of his past seven games. Like they're a bad running

192:06team. They're like a legit if he doesn't pop one like they're just a bad running team. Um so like that's the out, but he

192:13is getting so much use in the receiving game. He didn't it didn't translate last week, but he did still have seven

192:18targets. They had they had 38 targets last week. 35 of them went to Aman Rod Jameson Williams and Jir Gibbs. Like

192:25that's everything you want. Like it's everything. It's volume and it's to good players.

192:29>> It's so good, man.

192:30>> But Dan Camp, keep wearing the glasses, man. Keep wearing the glasses.

192:34>> But I my preferred way would be golf doubles still if like just the first way. I do want I am going to play Gibbs

192:39as well. It's just I do want to play the Gibbs or the golf doubles again because I think they're in a good spot. I mean,

192:44Aman Rosen another really good spot. He plays like 50/50 inside out. It's almost like a direct split like how CD Lamb has

192:52been in previous years where he plays inside outside and like the Steelers and the interior is where you want to attack

192:57them specifically. Um they're getting crushed like uh from receivers in the slot, but I just think these guys uh both hit. Anyways, Amanra is now behind

193:06JSN in target share and shituka might catch him these last month after we see these Dvonte Adams splits uh play out

193:13for a few more weeks. But yeah, Alman R is just he's up there. And Alman R is a touchdown equity is what you like. He

193:19has 45% of the team's red zone targets, which is wide receiver one, and 41% of the end zone targets, which is wide

193:26receiver six. So, you get those tuds from him. But, I mean, I have no push back on any Lion you like, though,

193:32because that's why the wagon.

193:34>> I still like Jameson, too, because I think, you know, part of the the stuff with him with with Dan Campbell is that

193:39it's not just kind of >> you're doing clear out route stuff.

193:42They're giving him the ball more over the middle, >> you know, kind of tacking giving him yak opportunities like and you give G extra time to throw

193:52and he I mean Goff's Goff's got a great arm, right? He's not he's not like ripping it like down the sideline so

193:59much, but like if you need someone to zip it in, you know, 18 yards over the middle of the field, as long as he's not

194:06pressured, like he's he's very good at that. And this is this is a spot where I you know I could see Jameson Williams

194:12catching a few of those types of targets and maybe taking one to the house. You know he's he's a really really good

194:18play.

194:19>> Gibbs is obviously a smash here.

194:21>> If you're playing golf doubles, what you need is just like two opening drives where the Steelers play good run defense.

194:27>> Like just start the game slowing down the run for like two drives. Push the Lions. They'll be willing. Like if they

194:35just don't run it well early, they'll just pivot and then we then we're going then we're off to the >> You also need I think you want the

194:42Steelers to get the ball first, go down kind of like march down the field. You get a Kenny Gainwell screen.

194:50Rogers just sees Kenny running. It just gives him, you know, that little you see the heart grow in real time. And then

194:56they hit Rogers uh throws to um to Damn it, I can't remember who's the fourth tight end. The guy couldn't >> Oh, hey. Other Hayward.

195:07>> Other Hayward. Yeah, the other Hayward.

195:10He throws to the the fourth tight end and other Hayward for a touchdown. And uh and that's how we get the game rolling. And then that that

195:17kind of activates Dan's competitive spirit. He he he can't let Aaron Rogers, you know, be scoring and and doing the discount double check, doing the belt.

195:26He can't be doing that. So then we get the Lions just rolling up points because we do want the Steelers to push a little

195:31bit here.

195:32>> We do.

195:32>> Um but you know, the Lions like to score points.

195:36>> They do.

195:36>> They will run up the score.

195:38>> So as long as we as long as the Steelers show little signs of life early, that's all the justification that that Campbell

195:44needs.

195:44>> And no matter what happens on Saturday helps the Lions. So, like they'll be aggressive. Packers, Bears, like they like they're in for either outcome.

195:55>> They just need to win games, right? They just need to win games.

195:57>> And they still play uh the Bears left.

196:00They still play the Bears.

196:02>> Okay.

196:04Okay. All right. They're the wagon.

196:07>> Yeah. I mean, it's And like I said, the best this it's not even it's the combination of the Dan Campbell plus the

196:13Leaporta injury, man. Like, >> it's just been perfect.

196:16>> Yeah. the perfect storm.

196:19>> The one thing like golf is 6,300 and doesn't necessarily look like he's going to be super chalky, >> which is weird because I bet he comes

196:27along for the ride though because people inherently when the projections kind of show stuff if like I'm like if people are paying up for a wide receiver, you

196:35almost always try to get the stack.

196:38What do you think about stuff like, you know, like a Rogers Metaf with a Gibbs or Rogers Metaf with a Jameson and

196:46trying to play the Lions stuff that way?

196:48I mean, Rogers only 5,000. Metaf's 5,400.

196:52Um, dude, what about Rogers Darnell Washington 2600?

196:59>> We could just It's Christmas. Let us have it.

197:01>> Let us have it. In all seriousness, I don't actually think this is a great Washington spot because he's tended to

197:05be play more when they run the ball a lot. So, this is actually not a week probably to to do Washington.

197:10Unfortunately, >> to be fair, they all should be Washington spots, but >> they should all be Washington spots.

197:15>> Yeah. But we have to wait until 2027 for that.

197:18>> Yeah. 2027 for a Washington spot.

197:21>> Unbelievable. Uh but I do I am mildly >> There are a lot of ways to play it. It's >> 5K.

197:28>> Yeah, he's 5,000. Um and this game is different than golf doubles than last week because the hardest thing about golf doubles was the Rams guys were all

197:36expensive. outside of Parkinson who we talked about last week. But like DK, Gainwell, like these guys are affordable. Like they they at least

197:44facilitate more than we had last week >> for sure.

197:50>> I'm not anti- Gainwell on DraftKings.

197:52FanDuel maybe, but >> 5100 I don't hate it. I I you could you could talk me into it for sure,

198:02>> but the only the only thing Yeah, maybe 4 PM only because because the thing with um with Gainwell is that

198:12Warren had an illness last week. He popped up on the injury report and he was kind of like legitimately questionable to play it seemed like.

198:18>> And typically Warren has been ahead and Gainwell's had that receiving role, >> right?

198:23>> So last week looked like oh Gainwell might be ahead now and he might be >> but he also might not be. It might be

198:31Jaylen Warren.

198:32>> I only care about the rece I'm only looking at it from the receiving stuff really. the receiving stuff it's it's

198:36gain well, but like Warren has has an even better yards per out run. He He gets targeted on >> Yeah. The problem is they don't let him

198:43run routes.

198:44>> They don't. Yeah. But maybe they will here because Lions aren't blitzing a ton, right?

198:50Uh >> they've still been playing a lot of man coverage injuries, which is >> They actually No, that's Steelers.

198:57>> Did they blitz?

199:01They don't really blitz that high.

199:04>> Yeah.

199:05>> So, they're playing a lot of man, not blitzing a lot.

199:07>> Yeah. Perfect.

199:10>> That seems good.

199:12>> Yeah. But yeah, they I will say Joey Porter Jr.'s been really good the past month. Uh just give him some credit, but

199:19that's it.

199:20>> They completely reworked their secondary, right? Steelers.

199:23>> Yeah, they um they signed Desante Samuel. He'll be playing for Pierre.

199:28Obviously, they cut sleigh. Ramsay's been playing safety, but >> I just think without this pass rush, it's not gonna be like and and it's it's

199:38the Lions, too. Like, the Lions are going to find ways to be successful against good defenses like we saw last week for the first half at least.

199:45>> But if you're not touching golf, you're not getting pressure on him. It's it's rough. Real rough.

199:49>> Yeah.

199:51All right, >> that'll do it.

199:54>> Uh tell the people what you got going on.

199:57>> Yeah. worksheet wrote. We somehow didn't cover something, but we wrote about it, one of us. So, check out stuff with

200:01that. Yeah, check out the worksheet. Got one more week of going strong there. TFS writeups will be out uh this weekend.

200:08Other than that, the holidays will occur by the next time we see you. So, I I do wish everyone a merry Christmas.

200:14Appreciate everyone that's hung on to us for for this long. It's been a lot of fun doing this, but we still have uh at

200:18least one more week of doing this.

200:21>> Yeah. Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah, happy holidays, and uh we'll be back next week for the week 17 uh week 17

200:31angles and upside, the week 17 walkthrough, week 17 worksheet, all that good stuff. Wishing you good luck in week 16 so that you can join us for week

200:3917 as we talk through what you're going to do in your fantasy football championships. Uh we'll see you next week. Good luck.

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