Top Guy Tuesday - Getting Medical w/ Michael Dubner

High-value asset with upside fully priced in at current ADP; speaker recognizes Jones as a 'disgusting click' with math that supports his value even as the broader market avoids him. Portfolio allocation would increase significantly if Javante Williams were not drafted, positioning Jones as a secondary option to Williams but with strong underlying value at current pricing.

Alec Pierce carries significant injury concerns heading into the season with uncertainty about week-one availability. Despite the injury news, Pierce's ADP has not fallen as much as expected, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the risk. David Montgomery and Michael Dubner are now more bearish on Pierce than before the injury was reported, with Dubner stating they will likely never see Pierce in the Sidekick tool. The market has shown resistance to Pierce falling, with auto-drafters and value-seekers potentially propping up his ADP despite the injury concerns.

Blake Corum carries an ADP of 92 as a year-three RB2 behind a veteran back on a high-powered offense. As a prospect, Corum was a late second-round rookie pick type, placing him in a lower tier than Tayvon Henderson (mid-first round prospect). While there have been hits from the late second-round prospect group (Aaron Jones, Rondre Mosley, Bucky Irving), Corum's prospect profile is more similar to Rondre Mosley than to Henderson, suggesting his current ADP may not fully account for the gap in prospect pedigree.

Preferred draft selection over Chris Godwin; David Montgomery has more confidence in Ridley's production potential given recent performance divergence. Ridley has posted 1.86 and 1.89 yards per route run since joining the Titans despite a difficult situation, compared to Godwin's 1.72 YPRR last year and 1.02 in the prior season. Ridley profiles as the Titans' number-two outside wide receiver in 11 personnel and is priced at a level where even three weeks of production feels like good value.

Underperforming relative to Calvin Ridley in draft strategy; David Montgomery has been taking more Ridley than Godwin. Godwin's recent efficiency metrics (1.72 yards per route run last year, 1.02 in prior season) trail Ridley's 1.86-1.89 mark since joining the Titans, leading to lower confidence in Godwin's production potential given performance trajectory and situation.

Running back in similar ADP range as Judkins and Scatteraboo but preferred over those injury-recovery candidates. David Montgomery is more comfortable drafting Swift at this price point compared to ankle/tibia-fibula injury recovery cases.

Dalton Schultz is the only tight end over 25% exposure for both analysts at 27% for Karine and over 25% for Dubner, indicating both have significant conviction on Schultz as their primary tight end target in draft simulations.

Injury confidence has improved from the beginning of the offseason; speaker gained more confidence that Jones would not miss big chunks of the season, which contributed to a strategic shift from three-quarterback to two-quarterback roster construction.

David Montgomery is at 23% exposure for both analysts at running back, making him the closest to the 25% threshold but not exceeding it; neither David Montgomery has any running back over 25% exposure. Not placed on PUP to start training camp, which was unexpected good news; however, return to performance remains uncertain despite not starting on PUP. Suffered complicated ACL injury with meniscus damage and cyclops lesion requiring two surgeries, which delayed rehab. May not be 100% healthy in week one and could take several weeks to return to form; there is a chance he does not return to full performance until 2027. Market repriced upward after PUP news, but speaker expected him to potentially fall to 5-6 turn if placed on PUP; now unlikely to reach that price floor. Fair value estimated around 3-4 turn by Sims even if downside risk existed. Speaker holds approximately 7% exposure and is not fully fading him but also not overweighting.

Debo Samuel is over 25% exposure for both Pat Karine and Michael Dubner at wide receiver, indicating both analysts have significant conviction on the player as a target in their draft simulations.

Presence in the Broncos receiving corps creates route distribution pressure that may affect target share for other receivers; his routes may ultimately come down by season's end, impacting opportunity for teammates like Tate Skowronek.

Javonte Williams appears frequently at or before ADP on best ball platforms despite a traditional dead zone back profile; David Montgomery notes he runs near the coldest expected touchdown rate in the NFL by opportunity, suggesting best ball algorithms may be capturing his scoring upside more than redraft models. Montgomery prefers him in best ball over redraft, where he'd rather find receiver production later and maintain overall team strength. Williams is fragile and has high exposure in best ball at 3–4 turn ranges, indicating the Sims love the hyperfragile running back build in 2026 due to weak late-round RB depth.

High-value asset with upside fully priced in at current ADP; speaker recognizes Williams as a 'disgusting click' with math that supports his value even as the broader market avoids him. His draft priority crowds out allocation to secondary running backs like Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, and Rashad White, indicating strong conviction in his value relative to alternatives.

Running back with fragile profile and limited upside that would receive significantly more portfolio allocation if Javante Williams were not drafted; speaker indicates they would have substantially more Mason exposure if they had skipped Williams, positioning him as a secondary option to a preferred early-round running back.

Khalil Shakir is over 25% exposure for both analysts in draft simulations, indicating significant conviction on the player as a wide receiver target.

Kylen Allen is emerging as a late-round running back option with a credible path to production in zero running back builds. David Montgomery drafted him in a recent best ball mock and feels increasingly confident he has a legitimate path rather than just a speculative one. Unlike forced zero RB builds from a month prior, Montgomery notes there are now a couple late-round guys (including Allen) where he's starting to feel more confident about their opportunity.

Has dropped in quarterback rankings from the beginning of the offseason; previously the top quarterback recommendation but is now behind a wide receiver in the rankings, though he remains the second-ranked quarterback overall. This shift reflects changing draft strategy and ADP landscape adjustments.

Omar Cooper is over 25% exposure for both analysts in draft simulations, indicating significant conviction on the player as a wide receiver target.

Patrick Mahomes commands exceptional conviction from both David Montgomery and Michael Dubner, with Montgomery at 32% exposure and Dubner at 38% exposure—both analysts' highest-exposure quarterback. Montgomery notes they've been drafting slightly less Mahomes over the past three weeks and not reaching for him around a round and a half ahead of ADP, which has kept exposure still above 35%. Additionally, Montgomery's injury confidence on Mahomes has improved from the beginning of the offseason; they gained more confidence that Mahomes would not miss big chunks of the season, which contributed to a strategic shift from three-quarterback to two-quarterback roster construction.

R.J. Harvey is David Montgomery's third or fourth highest drafted running back at 16% ADP. Sophomore running backs like Gibbs showed boom-bust rushing in year one but made big improvements in year two success rate; Harvey was a good prospect with some boom-bust tendencies as a bounce-it-outside runner, but has potential to improve in year two and can pay off current ADP as an explosive receiver and runner even without rushing improvement.

Speaker is at 10% allocation on Dobbins in BBM; Dobbins is expected to come back healthy despite age and injury history; Sims indicate Dobbins is a perfectly fine pick in the running back range where he goes, not too expensive relative to other options, and pops on certain build types like marathon and eliminator formats.

Travis Hunter is sitting at 60% advance rate pricing with David Montgomery drafting him at 23% ADP, one of his highest drafted receivers and well below the 25% threshold, positioning him as underpriced relative to market expectations. Montgomery recommends clicking him every time at current pricing.

Used as ADP reference point; speaker indicates McBride's draft position (around pick 28) as a benchmark for where Montgomery and similar players in the 3-4 turn range sit in draft order, establishing context for mid-round running back valuation.

Tucker Kraft has moved up in draft priority and is now drafted frequently; David Montgomery drafts a lot of Tucker but gets him less now due to his ADP rise. He appears to be the primary target on the offense ahead of Jaylen Naylor, but the rising cost has reduced Montgomery's allocation.

Historical example of player ADP movement without news catalyst; cited as precedent for how players can rise in draft order organically due to market sentiment shifts rather than new information, illustrating volatility in the 3-4 turn range where multiple players can flip positions.