Angles and Upside Week 15 w/ Pat Kerrane & Rich Hribar

Brandon Cooks is running 42% of routes in the Bills passing game, a significant role that reflects his increased usage and active phase-out of Keon Coleman (down to 22%). Cooks sits between Gabe Davis (70% routes) and Tyrell Shavers (50% routes) in the Bills receiver hierarchy, making him a more reliable target in the passing game despite the team's overall run-heavy approach.

Chase Brown increased his carry share to 63% last week from 45% two weeks prior against the Ravens, showing improved role opportunity. However, he remains inefficient as a runner and only adequate as a receiver, making his fantasy value entirely dependent on workload and scoring opportunities. The source projects him as an RB2 type (RB-15 in snap share, RB-14 in backfield touches, RB-15 in route participation), with upside only when efficiency or touchdown opportunities materialize, as evidenced by his 35-yard, 2-TD performance last week.

Dalton Kincaid is running 53% of routes and is the clear play in the Bills passing game with elite per-route metrics: 2.86 yards per route (highest among all tight ends) and 98th percentile target share at 24%. The source emphasizes he is getting fed when on the field despite nursing a knee injury, making him the primary tight end option in the Bills offense with strong upside against a Patriots defense that ranks 6th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and allowed him 100 yards in the first meeting.

Derrick Henry had only 11 touches in the first game against the Ravens, which the source expects will not repeat against the Bengals. The Bengals run defense is exploitable, ranking 31st in DBA, 30th in EPA, and 30th in success rate, positioning Henry for increased volume and efficiency in this matchup. However, Henry's short-yardage splits are poor this season, contributing to the Ravens' 29th-ranked short-yardage efficiency (third down and goal-to-go situations), representing a significant decline from last year when Baltimore was the best short-yardage team in the NFL.

Metcalf benefited from Aaron Rodgers' improved health and vintage form in Week 14 against the Ravens, catching a 52-yard deep ball as Rodgers displayed willingness to extend plays and take hits. Rodgers' mobility and decision-making resembled peak Green Bay form, suggesting Metcalf could continue to benefit from Rodgers' upside if his health trajectory continues to improve from two weeks prior when he looked compromised against Buffalo.

Drake London has absorbed a significant role in the Falcons offense, which was disappointing for the source who was previously bullish on him. London's route-opening impact on the Falcons offense is notable—his presence and workload in the passing game creates route separation for other receivers—but he is currently not playing. The source notes the Falcons shouldn't bring him back given they already have him on roster, though his fifth-year option status creates uncertainty about his future with the team.

Drake May is ranked number one in EPA per game this season. The source notes he has not thrown a 300-yard passing game but has thrown 200+ yards in every game and 250+ yards 10 times, demonstrating super consistent performance. Against the Bills, the source is most interested in Drake May because the Bills defense can be exposed through the air; Tua Tagovailoa was super efficient, Joe Burrow had 80th percentile EPA per play despite two interceptions, and Lamar Jackson was 98th percentile in week one against them. The source expects the Patriots to attack through the air with a balanced lean to pass, using Drake May as the key to victory.

Wilson is positioned as a potential leverage play if Josh Jacobs is unavailable. His role would expand significantly in a backup capacity, making him a valuable DFS option in a tight slate where Jacobs' absence creates opportunity for elevated usage and scoring potential.

Gabe Davis is running 70% of routes in the Bills passing game, representing a significant recovery and role increase after the source thought he might medically retire. This elevated route participation makes him the most-used receiver in the Bills offense and a more viable fantasy option despite earlier health concerns.

Rich Hribar has drafted and advanced a significant amount of Harold Fannon shares and is actively rooting for him to have a strong game this week; Fannon is among the players Hribar has concentrated holdings in and is banking on for positive fantasy performance.

With Higgins out, Chase is positioned to get peppered with targets just as he was two weeks ago when Higgins was previously unavailable. The source sees him as the cover boy in the walkthrough and it's really hard to see how he doesn't get heavy target volume. The Bengals will run their offense through the passing game as they almost always do, evidenced by their 7% pass rate over expected against the Bills last week despite facing a huge run funnel.

James Cook is set up well against the Patriots run defense with 75% of snaps and 62% of carries last week, ranking #1 in rush yards over expected per game. The Bills are heavily committed to the run this season, and Patriots pass protection is compromised with Will Campbell out and Bosa returning, which could force the Bills to lean on Cook even more if they establish early success.

Despite two interceptions in the last game (one tipped, one a misjudgment), Burrow was the most efficient he's been all year at 80th percentile EPA per play and 92nd percentile success rate. He was well protected last week, which is important given the Bengals' typical offensive line issues. The Ravens have no pass rush answers since losing Mad, ranking 29th in pressure rate, so Burrow will have time to throw and should be better than his Thanksgiving game against the Ravens when he was solid but in his first game back from injury. Burrow's efficiency is directly tied to Higgins' availability; when Higgins played last year and returned recently, Burrow's efficiency spiked noticeably. In his first game back with Higgins, Burrow threw the ball heavily but struggled with pass attempt efficiency (under 6 yards per attempt in the first half), though this may have been rust.

Allen is coming off an awesome game at 97th percentile in EPA per play and ranks third in EPA per game alongside Love and May. The source emphasizes Allen's MVP case relative to peers like Stafford and Drake Maye, noting that despite the Bills being probably the worst team in six years, Allen consistently delivers when asked to win games. His rushing role and ability to take over games make him a clear fantasy asset, especially in matchups where the Bills are pushed. The source notes Allen 'just has that rushing role' and the Bills are a run-based team, which creates ceiling upside even though the passing game spreads touchdowns around multiple receivers.

Jacobs' availability status heading into Week 15 is uncertain and has major DFS slate implications. If he plays, the slate becomes tight with limited value opportunities. If he's unavailable, backup Emanuel Wilson could open up as a leverage play. His injury status is a key variable for DFS construction and lineup strategy.

Keon Coleman has declined to 22% route participation and is being actively phased out in favor of Brandon Cooks in the Bills passing game. This sharp drop in usage makes him a difficult fantasy play going forward, as he has fallen to the lowest route share among Bills receivers.

Rich Hribar has two Kyle Pitts teams heading into the fantasy finals and is uncertain about his impact; Hribar is hoping his Pitts teams are among his weaker lineups. While Pitts delivered an exceptional single-week performance in standard scoring (zero PPR) that was described as 'unbelievable' and helped one team overcome a 20-point deficit in a semifinal, his long-term fantasy value is contingent on landing spot and team fit. The source notes Pitts' free agency value will depend heavily on whether he lands with a team that can utilize his receiving skills over the middle versus deep ball capability; blocking limitations are a concern for his market value and would prevent him from receiving a premium contract.

Lamar Jackson is expected to show significant improvement against the Bengals defense in Week 15 despite recent underperformance. The source cites improved physical appearance, reduced inaccurate throw rate, and high-variance play losses in the first matchup (likely fumble, OPI on Flowers, tuck rule fumble, tipped interception with Mark Andrews wide open for touchdown) as reasons for optimism. Jackson's red zone regression from last year's 15% touchdown rate is expected to normalize. The Bengals defense has allowed strong EPA per play marks to other quarterbacks (Wentz 78th percentile, Boicks 82nd, Fields 84th, Rudolph 95th), and the Ravens have no pass rush answers since losing Mad, ranking 29th in pressure rate. The source expects him to be significantly better, particularly in the run game, though notes the Ravens' conservative 55% pass rate last week (vs. 72% expected) and hiding of Lamar in a must-win division game is concerning about his current form. The source also recommends stacking Lamar Jackson with Ravens tight ends (Mark Andrews and/or Likely) against the Bengals, who have allowed the most receiving yardage to tight ends in a season since 2015 and are two touchdowns behind the all-time season tight end record (15 allowed vs. 17 record).

Mark Andrews has a 29% target share in the red zone and 35% target share in endzone targets against the Bengals, who have allowed the most receiving yardage to tight ends in a season since 2015 and are two touchdowns behind the all-time season tight end record (15 allowed vs. 17 record). Andrews was at 86% route participation last week (season high) after a health question mark, and despite a low 3% first-read target rate and 6% targets per hour last week, the source believes something changed in his usage and considers him a pretty nice play given the tight end matchup weakness.

Tinsley is one of the better DFS punt plays on DraftKings for Week 15, particularly in Bengals-focused lineups. In the Thanksgiving game, he was targeted on 30% of his routes with 9 targets, though that elevated volume came in an 80-play game and will likely regress. He ran 62% of routes against the Ravens and 77% when Chase was out against the Patriots, providing deep-threat upside with 16.3 and 15.9 aDOT in those games. He has 20% targets per route run and 26% first-read target rate, though he produced only 0.97 and 0.71 yards per route in those contests. At $3,100 salary, he offers value as a salary-cap facilitator to stack with premium receivers in stars-and-studs lineups, though the source acknowledges the boom-bust nature of the play.

Diggs' route rate has dropped significantly from just under 90% in week 11 to 54–61% in the last two weeks before the bye; the source wants him played the entire game in this divisional matchup against the Patriots, noting his peripherals and efficiency are excellent and he just needs to be on the field more. This is a big game to win the division, and the source argues Diggs should get elevated usage in a matchup where the Bills defense can be exposed through the air and the Patriots are expected to attack through the air with a balanced lean to pass.

Higgins' injury status looms as a critical variable for Bengals efficiency and Burrow's production outlook. When Higgins played last year and in his return game, Burrow's efficiency spiked significantly—80th percentile EPA per play and 92nd percentile success rate in his most recent game. However, Higgins being off the field casts a shadow on Burrow's performance. The Ravens ran 80 plays in their first meeting, which cannot be counted on to repeat; if the Bengals have reduced play volume and Higgins remains unavailable, it could depress overall offensive production and passing efficiency.

Tyrell Shavers is running 50% of routes in the Bills passing game, establishing a moderate role in the offense. This route participation level places him in the middle tier of Bills receivers, behind Davis (70%) and ahead of Cooks (42%), with limited upside in a run-heavy offense.

Zay Flowers has had only one bad game since the Week 7 buy, but he was awful against the Bengals specifically, posting 0.16 yards per hour in that matchup. The source is not excited about Flowers in this Ravens-Bengals rematch despite the Ravens being better overall than in their last meeting.