The Worst Fantasy Football Pick In Every Round

A.J. Brown shows signs of declining efficiency entering his prime years: 2.13 yards per route run and 8.3 yards per target last season, the lowest target share of his entire Philadelphia Eagles career despite running 31 routes per game (second-highest of his career). While the move to a new team where he is the clear best player could help, his second-round ADP is less attractive than alternatives like Brock Bowers, Drake London, or running backs (Barkley, Henry, Achane, Jeudy, Ken Walker) available at the 2–3 turn.

Jonathan Taylor fades Aaron Jones as a worst fantasy pick, citing his age (31 years old), chronic leg injuries (played only 12 games last year), and declining production (9.8 PPG, RB32 per game, 118 total points). Jones has evolved into a passing-down back role similar to Samaje Perine, with limited upside. Jordan Mason was more efficient in EPA per rush and rushing yards over expectation. Taylor prefers Jacquory Cropper, Monangai, and Corum over Jones in this range.

Jonathan Taylor identifies Alec Pierce as a quintessential better-in-real-football-than-fantasy player and a worst fantasy pick in his round. Pierce led the entire NFL in average depth of target last year but only managed 2.18 yards per route run, indicating severe inefficiency. Off-season surgery raises health concerns; unclear if ready for season start. Pierce has good real-life NFL role and contract with Colts, but is unreliable week-to-week fantasy player. Taylor prefers Jaylen Warren, Mecole Hardman, Michael Pittman Jr. (in full PPR), and even quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye in round 6.

Jonathan Taylor identifies Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the worst running back pick of the round. Rodriguez has a relatively significant foot injury with no OTA participation. He cannot be trusted on passing downs, having generated only 6 receptions and 7 targets across three NFL seasons. His value is limited unless he monopolizes goal-line carries for Jacksonville, which Taylor doubts. Taylor drafted him in the 14th round of a $2,500 high-stakes league but prefers multiple alternatives including Omar Cooper Jr., Keaton Mitchell, Tajae Spears, Bryce Hall-Tuitt, and Matthew Golden.

In context of Roma Odunze analysis, Loveland's yards per route run and targets per route run metrics exceeded Odunze's in 2024, suggesting Loveland is winning the target share battle in Bears offense and will limit Odunze's ceiling.

Jonathan Taylor identifies Courtland Sutton as a worst fantasy pick despite a WR13 finish last season. Sutton has multiple concerns: only 1.72 yards per route run on 124 targets last season, just one double-digit touchdown season in his career, reduced downfield effectiveness post-knee injury, and age (heading into age 31 season). The arrival of Jaylen Waddle as the Broncos' WR1 further diminishes Sutton's role and fantasy value.

Host prefers Davante Adams over Terry McLaurin for touchdown mining, indicating Adams is a better target for red zone/touchdown upside in the same round or nearby rounds.

Jonathan Taylor identifies Denzel Mims as one of the worst picks in his round, listing him among players to avoid in draft.

Jonathan Taylor fades DK Metcalf despite acknowledging he is a very good real-life player with underrated YAC skills. Metcalf's fantasy production is poor: yards per target fell from 9.4 to 9.2, touchdown production is at a low, and his draft price does not make sense. The addition of Michael Pittman Jr. for short-area work combined with Pittsburgh's high percentage of throws to running backs makes his ADP unjustifiable. Taylor projects Michael Pittman Jr. could outscore Metcalf in full PPR.

Jonathan Taylor identifies D.K. Metcalf as one of the worst picks in his round, listing him among players to avoid in draft.

Host prefers Garrett Wilson over Terry McLaurin for touchdown mining, indicating Wilson is a better target for red zone/touchdown upside in the same round or nearby rounds.

Jonathan Taylor emphasizes with high conviction that Jaylen Waddle will be the wide receiver one for the Denver Broncos, not Courtland Sutton. The Broncos traded a round-one pick for Waddle and led the NFL in passing attempts last year, positioning Waddle as the preferred Denver WR target over Sutton.

Jonathan Taylor's first-round ADP is inflated relative to peers like Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson. His back-half decline was severe when quarterback play deteriorated (Daniel Jones injured, Philip Rivers). After a 50-point game vs. Atlanta, he had only one more RB1 finish (17 points vs. Jacksonville in week 17). With uncertainty around Daniel Jones's return from Achilles injury and concerns that Shane Steichen's offensive scheme may regress, Taylor is projected closer to 13–17 fantasy points per game rather than his 2025 peak, making him safer to let others draft in round 1.

Jordan Mason demonstrated superior efficiency metrics in the 49ers backfield compared to Aaron Jones: much more efficient per-rush stats, strong EPA per rush, and positive rushing yards over expectation. Speaker has Jordan Mason ranked ahead of Aaron Jones on flockfantasy.com, indicating preference for Mason's value at the running back position.

Josh Allen's third-round ADP is a poor value relative to skill-position alternatives (Tee Higgins, Jacobs, Flowers, Neighbors, Achane, Doubs, Waddle, Ladd, Teat) and cheaper quarterback options available later. While Allen has finished as QB1 multiple times and posted 42- and 37-point games, the massive trade-off of passing on premium skill players in round 3 is not justified when Jayden Daniels (round 6) and Jalen Hurts (round 7) are available. Pairing a cheaper QB with a more expensive RB (e.g., Javonte Williams + Justin Herbert over Josh Allen + Rico Dowdle) is the superior strategy.

Jonathan Taylor would rather have Keaton Mitchell over Chris Rodriguez Jr., indicating better value at the running back position.

Host prefers Luther Burden over Roma Odunze in round 5 and mentions having done a full video on Burden the prior week. Also prefers Burden over Terry McLaurin for touchdown mining. Indicates Burden is ranked higher and is a preferred alternative in the round.

Jonathan Taylor prefers Matthew Golden over Chris Rodriguez Jr., indicating better value at the running back position.

Jonathan Taylor projects Michael Pittman Jr. in full PPR could straight up outscore DK Metcalf in fantasy football. Taylor prefers Pittman over Alec Pierce in round 6 in full PPR format, indicating Pittman is a better value pick in that scoring format. The addition of Pittman for short-area work in Pittsburgh's offense is a positive for his role and production relative to Metcalf.

Jonathan Taylor would rather have Omar Cooper Jr. over Chris Rodriguez Jr., indicating superior value at the running back position.

Despite strong RAS and draft capital, Odunze's NFL production is underwhelming: sub-1.5 yards per route run career average; only 2.5 yards per route run at Washington prospect profile. Had breakout game early 2024 (11 targets, 128 yards, 2 TDs vs. Detroit) but got injured against Washington. In remaining games, yards per route run and targets per route run were mugged by both Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. Projected to be shunted into sacrificial X role in Bears offense, likely finishing as top-30 WR at best. Preferred alternatives in round 5 include Bucky Irving, Cole Tootson, Judkins, and Judarian Price; Brian Thomas Jr. and Jordan Tyson also ranked higher.

Jonathan Taylor identifies Rondale Moore as one of the worst picks in his round, listing him among players to avoid in draft.

Jonathan Taylor identifies Terry McLaurin as a worst fantasy pick despite recent ADP inflation from Brandon Aiyuk's non-signing with Washington. McLaurin's career profile is weak: only one truly good season with 2.12 yards per route run career average (2.29 in limited 2024 sample); heading into age 31; only seven-plus touchdown season was 2024 when Jayden Daniels stayed healthy. His 2024 masterclass (82 rec, 1,096 yards, 13 TDs) was touchdown-dependent and unsustainable. Underappreciated risks include potential trade acquisitions (Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, or Jerry Jeudy) that could fragment targets. Red zone concerns: not a red zone style player; Chig Okonkwo's role could hurt him, and Ben Sinnott's increased role would be negative. Taylor prefers Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden, and Davante Adams for touchdown mining.

Jonathan Taylor would rather have Tajae Spears over Chris Rodriguez Jr. on most of his teams, indicating superior value at the running back position.

Jonathan Taylor considers Tyler Allgeier's value to be not dissimilar from Chris Rodriguez Jr., suggesting Allgeier is a comparable or superior option at the running back position.