0:00Every single year for the last 10 years
0:01in fantasy football, there has been a
0:03tight end drafted outside the top 15 at
0:05the position that has finished top 10.
0:07It is the easiest position to project
0:09breakouts. We know exactly what a
0:11breakout at the tight end position looks
0:13like. It is a player who ends up running
0:15over 70% of his team's route and has the
0:17ability to finish second on his team in
0:20targets. I think that this year is a
0:22particularly great crop to find a
0:24version of what I call the Gary Barnidge
0:26archetype. But here is a list of the
0:28last 15 years tight ends in the regular
0:30season less than 99 touchdowns and
0:33receiving touchdowns over eight. See how
0:35many of these seasons you remember. The
0:37Dawson Knox season. He ended up being
0:39drafted as a top 12 tight end season.
0:41The Robert Tonyan season. The Jonnu
0:43Smith season. The Jared Cook New Orleans
0:45Saints season. The Kyle Rudolph Vikings
0:48season. Cameron Brate, Tyler Eifert,
0:50Richard Rodgers. The Julius Thomas
0:52season with the Denver Bronco Peyton
0:54Manning team. Kyle Rudolph, Jermichael
0:56Finley. Obviously, all of these guys
0:58pale in comparison to the true insane
1:01Gary Barnidge season. In 2015, he had
1:04125 targets, 79 receptions, and nine
1:08touchdowns, and then was out of football
1:10within a year. Point being,
1:13at the tight end position, we know that
1:15we do not want to overpay at the middle.
1:17Some of the worst picks in fantasy
1:19football are these guys. And I'm not
1:21saying Laporta, Pitts, Fant, and Kittle
1:23are going to bust. There's a situation
1:25to draft all of them. But we do know,
1:27and I actually have another video on
1:28this channel with historical tight end
1:30breakout research, that the bust rate of
1:33tight ends who go in the middle rounds
1:35ends up being basically the worst
1:37position to take in fantasy football. So
1:39we are going to diagnose five breakout
1:41tight ends this upcoming season, and we
1:43are going to begin pretty low down the
1:45list with a guy who a lot of people seem
1:47to have forgotten. And that is going to
1:49be Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh
1:51Steelers. Remember that Pat Freiermuth
1:53in his career has already finished as a
1:55top 12 tight end, has actually already
1:57been drafted as a top 12 tight end. And
1:59you might be saying, "Davis, this guy
2:01has never averaged 10 PPR points in his
2:03life. Why would he be drafting him? I
2:05mean, look how poor he was last year. He
2:07had the one big game against the
2:09Cincinnati Bengals, then only finished
2:10as a top 10 tight end in a given week
2:13one other time."
2:15To which I would say, the 2026
2:17Pittsburgh Steelers are not going to be
2:19Arthur Smith's Pittsburgh Steelers.
2:21Arthur Smith is gone now calling plays
2:23for Ohio State. Johnnu Smith is gone.
2:25The team is going to be playing much
2:27faster. They have Brian Angelino who
2:29comes from the Minnesota Vikings who is
2:30now going to be the offensive
2:31coordinator. And they also brought in
2:33Mike McCarthy. I think that distinction,
2:36the offense to me is going to look quite
2:38different. My imagination, my projection
2:40for what the 2026 Steelers are going to
2:42be, it's going to be a lot more 12
2:44personnel. I don't think that Darnell
2:46Bernard is going to end up running more
2:47routes than Freiermuth. And with Johnnu
2:49gone and Darnell Washington as the tight
2:51end two, I think that we are going to
2:53get a snap rate so much higher than what
2:56we saw for Freiermuth last year. I mean,
2:58in over half his games last year, he did
3:00not even play 50% of the snaps. I would
3:03imagine that not only is Freiermuth
3:05going to run over 70% of the routes, I
3:07expect this to match his 2022 season in
3:10terms of yards per route run. Would not
3:12be surprising to see him be the second
3:14red zone target. And really, what you're
3:17asking yourself is, who is going to earn
3:19more targets, Pat Freiermuth
3:21or Michael Pittman Jr.?
3:22It very well could be Michael Pittman
3:24Jr. and I like drafting him. But Pat
3:26Freiermuth is free at the end of your
3:28drafts. He has demonstrated the ability
3:30to be an average or above average NFL
3:33starter. And if you think that the new
3:35offense with the Steelers is going to be
3:37a better offense, which I do. I mean, I
3:38think they're also going to play much
3:40faster. Arthur Smith had some of the
3:41slowest offenses. I think we could see
3:44like a 10-15% increase in total play
3:46volume for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I
3:48love buying Pat Freiermuth. That is our
3:50number one breakout option at the tight
3:53end position. You guys obviously already
3:55know if you are watching this channel
3:56about Terrance Ferguson. Terrance
3:58Ferguson is going to be the tight end
4:01two and the wide receiver three for the
4:02Los Angeles Rams. Funnily enough, Colby
4:05Parkinson actually shows up on this list
4:06here from last year. Eight touchdowns,
4:09but only 8.6 fantasy points per game.
4:13Terrance Ferguson is a much better
4:14player. He led all tight ends in average
4:17depth of target last season and A dot
4:19over 18. The team did not make any
4:21significant investment for wide receiver
4:23three. Right now, their wide receiver
4:25three would be, you know, your
4:26preference of Jordan Whittington, Xavier
4:28Smith, or Kanat Mumfield. Sean McVay has
4:31already said that T-Ferg can play all
4:33three positions inside of their tight
4:35end room and also play their wide
4:37receiver positions. I think the sky is
4:39the absolute limit. Now, Ferguson is not
4:41going to finish second on the team in
4:42targets per game unless Davante Adams
4:45gets injured, but he does have the
4:46insane touchdown spike potential, which
4:48does give one of these seasons, you
4:50know, I think some comps there. The
4:52Robert Tonyan season for the 2020 Green
4:55Bay Packers is I think very attainable
4:57for Terrance Ferguson, and I love
4:59drafting him in fantasy football. Gunner
5:01Helm is going to be next up for us, who
5:03actually had a much better rookie season
5:06than you remember, and the pathway is
5:07totally clear for him. Daniel Bellinger
5:10is the tight end two. He came over with
5:12Brian Daboll from New York to the
5:14Tennessee Titans. Helm got on the field
5:16right away as a rookie last year, 40% of
5:18the snaps in his first game. Chigo
5:20Okonkwo has departed and is now playing
5:22for the Washington Commanders. Chigo
5:24Okonkwo is actually going to feature on
5:25this list as well. They're complementing
5:27each other by Chigo Okonkwo choosing to
5:30leave.
5:31What Helm would need to do, he just
5:33needs to be a little bit better than
5:35Wan'Dale Robinson. And maybe that ends
5:37up being wrong. Maybe Helm does end up
5:39being a 75%
5:41of the routes guy, but he's not able to
5:43be second on the team in targets. I
5:44think a decent comp, if you want to
5:46think about the range of outcomes, would
5:48be Cade Otton, but Cade Otton in a
5:50season where he ends up scoring eight or
5:52nine touchdowns. And this bet is a big
5:54bet on the Tennessee Titans. If you
5:56don't think that Cam Ward can take the
5:57next step, if you don't think Brian
5:59Daboll can coax a better performance out
6:00of Ward, then you probably should not
6:02draft him. And honestly, these guys are
6:05probably going to be on the waiver wire
6:06in most of your leagues unless you are
6:08in a tight end premium format, but these
6:10are real breakout guys that uh that are
6:13on my list. Now, we are going to move
6:14into the next tier where these guys
6:16actually are going to be drafted more
6:18frequently, and we are going to
6:19highlight one Mr. Greg Dulcich, who is
6:22top five in the NFL in terms of yards
6:24per route run, targets per route run,
6:26and first downs per route run of the
6:28tight end position starting from last
6:29year. And keep in mind that this is a
6:31guy who had been injured a ton in his
6:34career. He's played for the Giants, he's
6:35played for the Dolphins, and then got
6:37let go by the team that drafted him, the
6:39Denver Broncos. 2.53 yards per route run
6:42for Dulcich last year. His target
6:44competition, of all the players on this
6:46list, Dulcich is probably number one on
6:49the team in targets. All he has to do is
6:51earn more targets than Malik Washington,
6:53Jalen Tolbert, Ty Ty Watwell, Kevin
6:55Coleman Jr.
6:57It's a fairly big bet on Malik Willis. I
7:00actually, if you made me choose a side
7:02of the aisle to sit on, I would
7:03certainly be on the pro Malik Willis
7:05aisle. I think that he played insanely
7:07efficiently for the Green Bay Packers
7:09last year, and I think what the Dolphins
7:11did with Malik Willis is quite
7:13intelligent. They gave him a reasonable
7:14contract. If it turns out that Malik
7:16Willis is quite good, they are set up so
7:19well in the future, and I'm comfortable
7:21making bets on him. Now, the Dolphins
7:23are going to be very bad. Don't don't
7:24get me wrong. This is going to be a bad,
7:26painful football team. They are going to
7:28be certainly bottom five of all NFL
7:30teams in points scored and in
7:31touchdowns. But at the tight end
7:33position, this volume that I expect that
7:36we are going to see from Dulcich is
7:37going to be unrivaled by anyone else in
7:39the tier where he is in the rankings. I
7:41think he's easily going to out-target
7:43Knox, Schultz, Parham, Juwan Johnson,
7:45T.J. Hockenson, Hunter Henry. All of
7:47those guys have real target competition
7:50that Greg Dulcich does not have. And if
7:52the Dolphins were even slightly better
7:54of a team, if their Vegas win total was
7:56slightly better, I think that he'd
7:57probably be a top 150 pick in fantasy
8:00football. So, we have covered
8:01Freiermuth, Ferguson, Helm, Greg
8:04Dulcich, and then now we are going to
8:06get to our true breakout tier. I'm
8:08actually going to give you guys a bonus
8:10one, which is going to be Chigo Okonkwo.
8:12In his career, he's never scored more
8:14than 7.2 fantasy points per game. Last
8:18year was actually his best game, but you
8:20can see that his snaps trended up last
8:22year. So, to me, he's already
8:23demonstrated the very difficult thing,
8:26which is scaling up his playing time
8:28from being a part-time player. You see
8:30going back in years past, he'd always
8:32been a part-time player. Had also always
8:34played on bad teams. Now, he is on a
8:38good team with the Washington
8:39Commanders. He's now on an efficient
8:41team that we expect to have I mean, are
8:42the Commanders going to finish top five
8:44in points scored? This is a team that
8:45made the NFC Conference Championship
8:47with a rookie quarterback. Jayden
8:48Daniels was injured for all of last
8:50season, so it's kind of obfuscated how
8:52good the Commanders' offense can be,
8:54particularly with the change in
8:56play-caller. I expect things to be
8:58awesome there.
8:59And a big deal for Chigo Okonkwo is that
9:01as of July 30th, Brandon Aiyuk is not on
9:04the team, Deebo Samuel is not on the
9:06team, Stefon Diggs is not on the team,
9:08and I will re-evaluate if any of those
9:10guys are on the team. But if they had to
9:12play a game today, tomorrow, I would
9:14expect Chigo Okonkwo to have an 18, 19,
9:1620% target share. I would expect his
9:18route rate to be well north of 70%,
9:21given that he is attached to Jayden
9:23Daniels in an offense that we want to
9:25buy. I am I'm a little surprised,
9:27actually. I I'm a little bit surprised
9:29that Chigo Okonkwo is this far down the
9:31positional ADP list. My my true rankings
9:34would certainly have him ahead of
9:36Gadsden. Uh honestly, would take him
9:38ahead of Isaiah Likely straight up. If
9:40you ask me who scores more fantasy
9:41points this year, Chig Okonkwo or Isaiah
9:44Likely, I am taking Chig Okonkwo. And I,
9:47for the first time ever in my fantasy
9:49football career, I am making this bet on
9:52Dalton Kincaid. This is my number one
9:54breakout pick at the tight end position.
9:56Mostly because I don't see any way that
9:59the Buffalo Bills ascend to the next
10:01level as a football team to get their
10:03offense to a Super Bowl winning level
10:05without a real Dalton Kincaid breakout.
10:0810.5 points per game last year, but
10:10before he got injured, 14, 7, 17, 9,
10:1416.8. Injured in week six, comes back
10:17against Kansas City, scores 22 points as
10:19the 14-point game in week 14. All the
10:22reports from Buffalo this offseason is
10:25that Dalton Kincaid is finally
10:26legitimately healthy. There's a chance
10:28he ends up being a full-time player. I
10:29mean, he was not a full-time player in a
10:31single game for the Buffalo Bills last
10:34year. He was barely a full-time player
10:36in 2024 before he injured his knee. And
10:38then when he injured his knee, he never
10:40played full snaps for them again.
10:43If I'm wrong about Kincaid, I honestly
10:45don't think it will be wrong because he
10:46can't do it. Dalton Kincaid is, again,
10:49top five in the NFL amongst the tight
10:51end position. Actually, he's number one
10:53in the NFL in targets per route run. He
10:56is
10:57top five in the NFL in yards per route
10:59run over his career at the tight end
11:01position. This is a guy who, when he is
11:04on the field, gets the ball. We just
11:05need to extend him to 70, 75% of the
11:09routes. He is attached to one of the
11:10best quarterbacks in the NFL. Now, the
11:13market has a slightly different opinion
11:15than me about his teammates Khalil
11:16Shakir and DJ Moore. DJ Moore had a 1.14
11:20yards per route run last year, which is,
11:22you know, outside of the top 50 wide
11:24receivers in the NFL. I do not view that
11:26as an addition that is going to
11:29meaningfully change the range of
11:30outcomes for Kincaid. Either he is the
11:32player that his a limited sample says he
11:35is and he plays more snaps or he isn't
11:37and I'm betting that he is. So, if we
11:39get Kincaid to 75% of the routes, I
11:41expect him Honestly, I do expect him to
11:44finish as a top five tight end if he is
11:46able to get those routes and he is
11:47available outside the top 100 picks in
11:50fantasy football. So, your breakout
11:52tight end bets this year, Pat
11:53Freiermuth, Terrance Ferguson, Gunner
11:56Helm, Greg Dulcich, Chigoziem Okonkwo,
11:59Dalton Kincaid. Make sure you like the
12:00video. Make sure you are subscribed to
12:02the Davis Mattek Fantasy Football
12:03channel and if you want more of my work,
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12:15and I will see you guys back tomorrow.
