A Simple Fantasy Football Edge The Jabronis Ignore

Brock Purdy is being punished too heavily by the market for injury concerns; he was the QB2 in points per game last year when healthy.

Cam Akers is being punished too much for injury concerns; he should not be available in the fifth round given his role in the passing game and goal-line usage, regardless of the Najee Harris signing.

Trey Harris is lower on Courtland Sutton than the market, preferring Jaylen Waddle and noting that Sutton will not lead the Broncos in targets, though he acknowledges Sutton's consistent ability to produce touchdowns.

Trey Harris considers Deebo Samuel a good pick at his current ADP (130-140), noting his past success and potential to regain star status in the 49ers offense. Davis Mattek adds that while Samuel is available at a cheap price, managers should carefully consider if they are truly smarter than the market when betting on such discounted players.

George Kittle is being undervalued due to injury concerns and should be drafted closer to the range of Tyler Warren, Harold Landry, and Kyle Pitts.

Trey Harris is not interested in drafting Isaiah Likely due to bearish preseason usage, noting that Likely has only played on obvious passing downs and has not taken any snaps as an inline tight end.

Jayden Reed is a fade because his situation has not changed significantly; he remains limited to 11 personnel and is expected to run routes on only about 65% of snaps when other personnel groupings are used.

Trey Harris is buying Josh Downs, citing improved quarterback play and a clearer path to targets following the departure of Michael Pittman Jr. and the injury to Alec Pierce; however, Harris notes that Downs' fantasy value depends on his ability to improve his downfield production, as veterans like Keenan Allen currently outperform him in his primary role.

Justin Jefferson is a must-buy exception to regression rules; despite finishing 2025 as the WR35, his low touchdown total was driven by poor quarterback play from McCarthy, Brosmer, and Wentz. Trey Harris notes that his pairing with Kyler Murray and play-caller Kevin O'Connell makes him a valuable target, even though he is currently being drafted as the WR6 in 2026.

Trey Harris views Keenan Allen as a dependable veteran receiver who remains highly effective at his specific role, comparing his utility favorably to younger players like Josh Downs. Davis Mattek notes that Allen is currently available at a cheap price, prompting managers to question if they are smarter than the market when betting on such discounts.

Trey Harris warns against drafting Kenneth Walker at his current RB7 ADP, arguing that players overdrafted based on anticipated situational changes are historically poor bets, especially given Walker's RB29 finish last year.

While not expecting an 'awesome' season, Mattek argues Kyler Murray is a league-average quarterback in EPA per play, comparable to Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud, making him a significant upgrade for Justin Jefferson.

Lad McConkey's inclusion on the list of overvalued players is surprising, as Trey Harris notes his performance last year was arguably better than his WR36 points-per-game ranking suggested.

Luther Burden is a buy despite a limited NFL resume. Trey Harris believes the Chicago Bears' situation has improved enough to support a breakout, projecting Burden to serve as the team's version of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Matthew Golden is a buy at his WR47 price point. Trey Harris highlights that his situation has improved significantly following the departures of Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs from the Green Bay Packers.

Trey Harris believes Michael Pittman Jr. is a better stylistic fit for Aaron Rodgers than DK Metcalf, arguing that Pittman's average depth of target makes him a superior option at this stage of his career.

Pat Bryant is an interesting sleeper candidate for the Denver offense, with potential to eventually overtake Courtland Sutton for a primary role.

Trey Harris views Stefon Diggs as a reliable fantasy asset who, as the WR2 for the Commanders, provides a safe floor of approximately 800 yards and five touchdowns.

Trey Harris is a risky draft pick; despite a marginally improved situation under Mike McDaniel, his projected playing time remains unclear and inconsistent.

Zach Charbonnet is currently discounted in fantasy drafts due to injury concerns and the addition of Kendre Miller, but Mattek believes there is little signal in those factors to justify the lower price.