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The Perfect Fantasy Football Draft (1.03)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 28, 2026
Published
Tue, July 28, 2026
26
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownBo NixBreece HallBrock PurdyCeeDee LambChase BrownChristian KirkChristian WatsonDak PrescottDalton KincaidDe'Von AchaneJ.K. DobbinsJa'Marr Chase
Player analysis

Player insights

26

A.J. Brown

PositiveProjection9:49

AJ Brown scored 18 fantasy points per game two years ago and the source believes he can get back to that level with the Patriots.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection9:29

Amon-Ra St. Brown is part of an elite tier of six wide receivers (Jamar Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and St. Brown) who are a clear cut above the rest and capable of scoring 16, 17, or 18 fantasy points per game.

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Bo Nix

NegativeValue3:00

The source notes that Bo Nix went off the board in the seventh round, along with other quarterbacks, and recommends waiting until round eight to target a quarterback.

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Breece Hall

NegativeValue0:58

The source passes on Breece Hall in the third round, selecting A.J. Brown instead. This decision reflects a strategy of prioritizing elite wide receiver depth over running back depth, with the source reasoning that when given the last of the tier at high-end wide receivers, you need to take it.

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Brock Purdy

NegativeValue3:00

The source notes that Brock Purdy went off the board in the seventh round, along with other quarterbacks, and recommends waiting until round eight to target a quarterback.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveProjection9:29

CeeDee Lamb is part of an elite tier of six wide receivers (Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown) who are a clear cut above the rest and capable of scoring 16, 17, or 18 fantasy points per game.

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Chase Brown

NegativeValue0:28

The source does not select Chase Brown in the second round from 1.03, reasoning that it is not realistic to get him at that spot in actual drafts, despite being available in this particular mock draft. This reflects ADP concerns and the likelihood of Brown being selected earlier in real-world leagues.

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Christian Kirk

NegativeInjury7:47

Kirk suffered a recent injury during the source's recording and is projected to be banged up for the entirety of the season, making him unavailable as a reliable fantasy option.

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Christian Watson

PositiveValue2:40

The source selected Christian Watson in the seventh round as part of a strategy to win the flex position, emphasizing that this year is more about flex optimization than in previous years. Watson returned from his ACL injury to a full-time route share for the first time in his career with the Packers last year, making him a flex target.

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Dak Prescott

NegativeValue3:00

The source notes that Dak Prescott went off the board in the seventh round, along with other quarterbacks, and recommends waiting until round eight to target a quarterback.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveProjection6:33

Kincaid is drafted as a second tight end with elite efficiency metrics; he ranked top-5 in targets per route run, fantasy points per route run, and first downs per route run among all NFL tight ends last year. His limiting factor has been snap share with Buffalo, but reports indicate he is healthy; if his knee is fully healthy, the source anticipates he will earn more snaps through improved run-game blocking contributions.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveValue2:06

The source selected De'Von Achane in the fourth round to lock up the running back two position, describing the resulting roster construction as basically the best start possible in redraft fantasy football.

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J.K. Dobbins

PositiveValue3:15

The source selected JK Dobbins in the eighth round as part of a strategy focused on running backs and wide receivers through eight rounds. Dobbins serves as a temporary depth option at running back while the Steelers backfield situation clarifies, and is characterized as a very nice reserve option who can even be started in a pinch if needed.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveProjection9:29

Jamar Chase is part of an elite tier of six wide receivers (Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown) who are a clear cut above the rest and capable of scoring 16, 17, or 18 fantasy points per game.

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Javonte Williams

NegativeValue0:58

The source passes on Javonte Williams in the third round, selecting A.J. Brown instead. This reflects a strategy prioritizing elite wide receiver depth over running back depth, with the source reasoning that when given the last of the tier at high-end wide receivers, you need to take it.

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Jaylen Warren

PositiveRole2:00

Jaylen Warren has a chance to be the clear lead back for the Pittsburgh Steelers in a way he has never been before. Even if he functions only as a primary passing-down back, the Steelers target running backs more than any other team in the NFL, providing significant opportunity. The source selected Warren in round 6 as a realistic alternative to Mike Evans, maintaining a balanced roster with three running backs and three wide receivers.

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Josh Downs

PositiveProjection3:58

Downs is a breakout bet at wide receiver with strong efficiency metrics when deployed as a full-time player; he averages over 10.5 PPR points per game in 10 career games where he ran 75%+ route share for the Colts. Alec Pierce's PUP designation opens opportunity, though a potential Keenan Allen signing could slightly diminish target share.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection4:31

Herbert is drafted as a top-10 quarterback projection under Mike McDaniel's system, which generated the highest-scoring NFL offense with Tua Tagovailoa; Herbert is viewed as a breakout candidate and superior talent to Tagovailoa at this stage.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection9:29

Justin Jefferson is part of an elite tier of six wide receivers (Jamar Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown) who are a clear cut above the rest and capable of scoring 16, 17, or 18 fantasy points per game.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage0:28

Kenneth Walker is projected to catch approximately five passes per game in Andy Reid's offense for Kansas City. He had 4.6 receptions per game in 2024 during an injury-shortened season, and this receiving role is what Reid has envisioned for him this year. The source selected Walker in round 2 from 1.03 ahead of Chase Brown, reasoning that it is not realistic to get Chase Brown at that spot in actual drafts.

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Luther Burden

PositiveSleeper2:30

The source selected Luther Burden in the fifth round, describing him as basically the best wide receiver pick on the board right now. The source created a dedicated video on the channel about Burden's value and identifies him as their favorite breakout bet in fantasy football.

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Mark Andrews

PositiveProjection4:59

Andrews is drafted as the starting tight end with minimal target competition; the Ravens released Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely, drafted only backup-level tight ends (Matthew Hibner, Josh Quevas), and lack a second true target earner at wide receiver beyond Zay Flowers. The source projects another 10-touchdown season for Andrews given his elevated target share.

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Mike Evans

NegativeValue1:52

Mike Evans is available on the board in the fourth round alongside Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Quentin Johnston, and Luther Burden, but the source selects Luther Burden instead. The source notes that Mike Evans appeared as a sixth-round option in the mock draft but acknowledges Evans will not realistically be available in the sixth round in actual leagues, so the source passed on him.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveProjection9:29

Puka Nacua is part of an elite tier of six wide receivers (Ja'Marr Chase, Nacua, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown) who are a clear cut above the rest and capable of scoring 16, 17, or 18 fantasy points per game. While the source would not take Nacua over Ja'Marr Chase at 1.03, he is grouped among the few elite receivers with that scoring ceiling.

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Quentin Johnston

NegativeValue1:49

The source considered Quentin Johnston as an alternative option over De'Andre Swift in the third round, suggesting Johnston was in consideration for the draft slot but ultimately passed. Quentin Johnston is available on the board in the fourth round alongside Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Luther Burden, and Mike Evans as the source considers options.

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Trevor Lawrence

NegativeValue3:00

The source notes that Trevor Lawrence went off the board in the seventh round, along with other quarterbacks, and recommends waiting until round eight to target a quarterback.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

329
0:00Drafting from the third slot in the
0:01first round does have some unique
0:02challenges this year, but of course you
0:04do get to begin with the best wide
0:05receiver in fantasy football, Ja'Marr
0:07Chase. I would not take Puka Nacua over
0:09Ja'Marr Chase. Where it gets a little
0:11bit more difficult when you're drafting
0:12from the 1.3 is in the second and the
0:15third round. I've got the ESPN ADP
0:18pulled up here on flockfantasy.com. If
0:20you guys want to try some fantasy
0:21football drafts over there, you can as
0:23well. We actually get lucky here in this
0:26little draft with the ability to take
0:28Chase Brown or Kenneth Walker. I'm
0:30actually going to select Kenneth Walker
0:32ahead of Chase Brown. I just don't think
0:33it's very realistic that you're actually
0:35going to get Chase Brown there. I would
0:37be fine taking the Bengals together, but
0:39we're going to hue towards reality. We
0:40do have a start that I love in drafts,
0:42which is the ability to do running back
0:44and wide receiver. Back in the day, the
0:45magic formula used to be running back
0:47running back. I definitely do not think
0:49that is the case, particularly when you
0:51are drafting from the 1.3. I think you
0:53want the extreme ceiling from Ja'Marr
0:55Chase or Puka Nacua. We are going to
0:58select A.J. Brown with our third round
1:00pick ahead of Garrett Wilson, ahead of
1:02Olave, ahead of Pickens, and crucially,
1:04ahead of Breece Hall, ahead of Javonte
1:06Williams. I think that when you are
1:08given the last of the tier at the
1:10high-end wide receivers, you need to
1:11take it.
1:12And you guys can see with this selection
1:14right here, we are in a much better spot
1:17having taken A.J. Brown because when we
1:19come up here, we can select Tee Higgins,
1:21Jaylen Waddle, Quentin Johnston, Luther
1:22Burden, or Mike Evans. But what we
1:24definitely want to do is lock up our
1:26running back two position. We are going
1:28to take De'Von Achane Swift there with
1:30our pick in the fourth round. So we have
1:32what I think is basically the best start
1:34possible in redraft fantasy football
1:36this year. We have got a high-end wide
1:39receiver. We have got a high-end wide
1:40receiver two, a high-end running back,
1:42and a running back two that is pretty
1:44dependable. Luther Burden is on the
1:46board for us here. Mike Evans is on the
1:47board for us here. We are going to
1:49select Luther Burden. I of course did
1:51the video on the channel about Luther
1:52Burden. I do think he is basically the
1:54best wide receiver pick on the board
1:56right now.
1:57But structurally, we feel pretty good
2:00about our options at all positions. We
2:03skipped on all the elite tight ends
2:04because it didn't make sense to take,
2:06you know, it didn't really ever make
2:08sense for us to. I guess we could have
2:09taken Quentin Johnston over De'Andre
2:12Swift. I also would have thought about
2:13taking Loveland over Luther Burden if we
2:15had that option, but we didn't have that
2:17option. Now, this again is very rare.
2:20Obviously, you're seeing the computer
2:21giving me a chance to take Mike Evans
2:23here. Mike Evans is not going to be
2:24available in the sixth round in your
2:26league. So, what we are going to do
2:27instead, we're actually going to take
2:29Jaylen Warren. So, we now have our
2:31alternating. We have three running
2:32backs, three wide receivers. We feel
2:34very good about our flex spot in this
2:36league. We are not going to be looking
2:37at quarterbacks here. There would be a
2:39temptation in the seventh round to start
2:41thinking about our stacks. Do we want to
2:43take Caleb Williams or Luther Burden? Do
2:45we want to take Drake May? Do we want to
2:47take Joe Burrow? I mean, obviously, some
2:49of the high-end quarterbacks are already
2:51off the board. Burrow went, May went. We
2:53could take Caleb Williams. We are not
2:54going to.
2:56I think more so than any other year I
2:58can ever remember, this is a year of
3:00attempting to win the flex. I'm going to
3:02select Christian Watson. You could sub
3:04Mecole Hardman in there. You could sub
3:06Jordan Addison in there, you know, in if
3:08the context of your league is a little
3:10bit different. It doesn't really matter.
3:12I mean, if you have a strong opinion,
3:14then I guess it does. We just saw a
3:15bunch of quarterbacks go off the board.
3:17Purdy went off, Nix, Dak, and Lawrence
3:19all go. Round eight is where I would
3:21start thinking about a quarterback. My
3:23observed experience though is that
3:25fantasy managers have just gotten a lot
3:27better about this. The most recent
3:29couple years, quarterbacks tend to go
3:31later in redraft formats than ever
3:33before. Tucker Kraft is on the PUP list
3:35right now. He might even start the
3:36season on the PUP list, so we are not
3:38going to take him. We are instead going
3:40to take JK Dobbins. You'll notice I've
3:43only taken running backs and wide
3:44receivers through eight rounds. That is
3:46basically a normal strategy for me at
3:49this point. I think
3:51with scores lower, so if this makes
3:53sense, in fantasy football, the average
3:56score of the running back two has gone
3:58down. The average score of the wide
3:59receiver two has gone down. The average
4:01score of the wide receiver three has
4:03cratered. The average wide receiver
4:05three score in 2025 was below 10 PPR
4:08points. I want to be focused on getting
4:11as many breakout bets as my flex options
4:14as possible. So, I'm going to select
4:16Josh Downs at this pick. Alec Pierce
4:18went on the physically unable to perform
4:20list. Now, of course, there's a chance
4:21that the Indianapolis Colts sign Keenan
4:23Allen. If that does end up being true, I
4:26would maybe be a smidgen lower on Downs,
4:28but Downs as a full-time player is
4:30something that I am incredibly
4:31interested in in fantasy football. He
4:33averages over 10.5 fantasy points per
4:35game in the 10 career games where he has
4:38ran over 75% of the Indianapolis Colts
4:40route. I think JK Dobbins can kind of
4:42hold us over as we wait to see what
4:44happens in the Steelers backfield. So,
4:46we feel great about this situation right
4:48here. I'm going to add in Justin Herbert
4:51as our quarterback cuz I just don't
4:52think it's realistic that Caleb Williams
4:54would be available here. That's just
4:56based on I mean
4:58I mean, I've done hundreds, thousands of
5:00fantasy football drafts already this
5:02year, and I know that Caleb Williams is
5:04not going to go after Bo Nix. So, just
5:06to make it a little bit more realistic,
5:08we are going to take Herbert. We're
5:09going to tab over to the tight end
5:10position. Now, if Tucker Kraft was
5:13available here, I would take him. I
5:15don't think he's going to start the
5:16season on the physically unable to
5:18perform list. So, we are going to take
5:19Mark Andrews as our starting tight end
5:21here. Andrews has very little
5:23competition at the tight end position.
5:25There's a chance the team signs Darren
5:27Waller. They drafted Matthew Hibner and
5:29Josh Quevas to be their backup tight
5:31ends, but they let Charlie Kolar go.
5:33They let Isaiah Likely go. They don't
5:36have a real second wide receiver who is
5:37a target earner. None of the guys other
5:39than Zay Flowers on the roster project
5:42have a targets per route run above 20%.
5:44Bateman, Jacobi Lane, Elijah Serratt,
5:47these are complimentary players. I think
5:49we could very easily see another 10
5:50touchdown season for Mark Andrews. And
5:53now, because we have our quarterback and
5:55our tight end situation solved, we can
5:57go back to stock piling some zero
5:59running back guys. We feel very good
6:01about our wide receiver, so we can add
6:03in Keaton Mitchell. Nice that he is
6:05teammates with Justin Herbert. He is one
6:06of my big breakout bets at running back
6:09that will be covered in another video on
6:10the channel. In fact, already has been
6:12covered several times on the channel,
6:14but I think Keaton Mitchell is a
6:15phenomenal zero running back pick this
6:17year in fantasy football.
6:20Now, a key element of strategy for me
6:22this year is I actually want to have two
6:25tight ends on a lot of my fantasy
6:27football teams. I think that it's going
6:28to be too hard to find a clear, clear
6:30breakout, and I want to give myself
6:32multiple bites at the apple. Tight ends
6:34are actually more important than ever in
6:36fantasy football because 12 personnel is
6:39going to be played at its highest clip
6:40of all time. In fact, last year we
6:43already saw the trend up of 12
6:44personnel, which means two tight ends on
6:46the field, which has brought wide
6:47receiver scoring and wide receiver
6:49targets down. Tight end scoring and
6:51tight end averages have gone up. We are
6:53going to add Dalton Kincaid as our
6:55second tight end here. Dalton Kincaid
6:57was top five in all of football last
6:59year amongst tight ends in targets per
7:01route run, fantasy points per targets
7:03per route run, first downs per route
7:05run. All that is very fancy, nerdy ways
7:07of saying when Dalton Kincaid is on the
7:09field, he's a very good fantasy football
7:11player. He just has not been able to
7:12earn a full-time role for the Buffalo
7:14Bills. Reports are that Kincaid is
7:16healthy, and I think that the team would
7:19I mean, it would be a huge benefit for
7:21the Buffalo Bills for Dalton Kincaid to
7:23be a full-time player for them. If his
7:25knee is healthy, I would anticipate him
7:27able to more contribute in the run game
7:30as a blocker, which would earn more
7:32snaps for him. And then we're going to
7:34take one final wide receiver here. Now,
7:36this is going to depend on when your
7:37draft is. If your draft is on August
7:4030th, Stefon Diggs is going to be
7:42signed. He is not going to be available
7:44to be taken in the 14th round.
7:46You should be able to take De'Shawn
7:47Shribling who we're going to take here.
7:49Christian Kirk did just get banged up
7:51when I was recording this video. I would
7:52anticipate Christian Kirk mostly being
7:54banged up for the entirety of the
7:56season. That's just kind of the way that
7:58things go. Now, according to the
8:00projected points in our rankings on
8:02flockfantasy.com,
8:03I was third in this league which makes,
8:05you know, honestly that makes sense to
8:07me. We got Justin Herbert who I think is
8:09going to be a top 10 quarterback this
8:11year. He should be trending for a
8:12breakout season with Mike McDaniel. Mike
8:14McDaniel generated the highest scoring
8:16team in the NFL with Tua Tagovailoa. I
8:18think we can all agree that Justin
8:20Herbert is better than Tua at this stage
8:21of their career. Now, I'm a little bit
8:23worried about the structural fit between
8:25Herbert and McDaniel. Herbert has
8:28generally been better with faster
8:29offenses where he's been able to get out
8:31of the pocket. McDaniel does play more
8:33of a point and click system. It's
8:34actually one of the reasons why I think
8:36they stuck with Tua in Miami as long as
8:38they did is those two were actually a
8:40good stylistic fit. Our running back
8:42room of Kenneth Walker, De'Andre Swift,
8:44Jaylen Warren, JK Dobbins, and Keaton
8:46Mitchell. To me, you can screenshot
8:48that. You can put that on your cheat
8:50sheet. You can take that to your draft.
8:51When you're drafting out of the 1.3,
8:53that's about as good as it gets in terms
8:55of a running back room. Kenneth Walker
8:57is going to catch, in my mind, about
8:59five passes per game. He had 4.6
9:02receptions per game in 2024. His
9:04injury-shortened season, that is the
9:06role that Andy Reid has imagined for him
9:08in Kansas City this year. Jaylen Warren
9:10has a chance to be the clear lead back
9:12for the Pittsburgh Steelers in a way
9:14that he never has done before. And even
9:16if he is just a primary passing down
9:18back, no team is going to aim more of
9:20their throws towards running back than
9:21the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dobbins and
9:23Keaton Mitchell are very nice reserves.
9:25You can even start JK Dobbins in a pinch
9:27if you had to.
9:29A key element this year in fantasy
9:31football is, how are we going to find
9:33ceiling at wide receiver? I think
9:35there's a group of six guys, Jamar
9:37Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, Lamb, Jefferson,
9:41and St. Brown. They are a clear cut
9:43above. They are the few groups of wide
9:45receivers who can score 16, 17, 18
9:48fantasy points per game. As long as you
9:49get one of those guys, you feel great.
9:51AJ Brown has been an 18 fantasy points
9:54per game score two years ago. He can get
9:56back to that level for the Patriots.
9:58Luther Burden is my favorite breakout
10:00bet in fantasy football. I did a whole
10:0115-minute video on that. Christian
10:03Watson returned from his ACL injury to a
10:06full-time route share for the first time
10:08in his career for the Packers last year.
10:10And then we have our breakout bets in
10:11Josh Downs and Jahan Dotson Stribling.
10:13Mark Andrews is our steady veteran at
10:15tight end and Kincaid is one of our big
10:18breakout bets. Structuring teams this
10:20way out of the 1.3 with those
10:22alternating running back and wide
10:23receiver picks is one of my absolute
10:25favorite things to do. If you enjoyed
10:28this video, make sure to like it, leave
10:30a comment down below, and you can check
10:31out all my content over on
10:32flockfantasy.com. You can get a discount
10:35over there using code Davis or the
10:36season pass for only 35 $34 using code

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