0:00Fantasy football has certainly changed
0:01the most recent two years, but one thing
0:03that will never change is that running
0:04backs do get injured and unlike wide
0:06receivers, when there is a running back
0:08injury. We have a pretty good idea who
0:10is going to get the work when that
0:11running back is out and we have a pretty
0:13good idea how many fantasy points they
0:14are going to score. So, in this video,
0:16we are going to take a look at the five
0:17handcuff running backs that I am
0:19targeting in every fantasy football
0:21format because I think they have a great
0:22chance to be a league winner or at least
0:24a low-end running back one if the
0:26starter in front of them gets injured.
0:28So, we are going to begin all the way
0:29down here in the 40s with some names
0:31that you guys might not be that
0:33comfortable with. I'm not even going to
0:34do Katon Mitchell, by the way. I'm going
0:36to completely pass up Keaton Mitchell
0:38because I think he is above the handcuff
0:40tier of running back. And we are going
0:41to begin with Dylan Samson for the
0:43Cleveland Browns, who I think is being
0:46basically dramatically overlooked in
0:48fantasy football. First off, he started
0:49out his career way better than any of us
0:52remember. Basically having to start that
0:54week one game when Quinn Sean Judkins
0:55was out. did give up a touchdown to
0:58Rocket Sanders and we had Jerome Ford
1:00there as well. Not even to his age 22
1:02season. He's in a really interesting
1:04spot with the Cleveland Browns where
1:05they have a new coaching staff who might
1:07not be as beholden to giving Quinn Sean
1:09Judkins 30 rushes per game. I expect him
1:12to basically have a majority of the
1:13passing down work for the Cleveland
1:15Browns. But more importantly, Judkins is
1:17a legitimate health question mark coming
1:19into this upcoming season. He suffered
1:21the leg injury late last year. I expect
1:23him to probably be okay, but there's a
1:25chance if you do your fantasy football
1:27draft on August 10th that we get to
1:29August 25th. And wait, hold on. Judkins
1:32is on the physically unable to perform.
1:33Judkins is questionable for week one.
1:36No, I don't think that is the most
1:38likely scenario. Honestly, for me, it's
1:40kind of a talent-based situation. I
1:42think that Dylan Samson was quite a good
1:44prospect coming out of the University of
1:45Tennessee where he is the SEC offensive
1:48player of the year his final season. I
1:49think that he has some speed, some
1:52burst, and the most important thing
1:53about these handcuffed guys is in an
1:56absolute pinch. It's week seven, your
1:58running back one is on by, your running
2:00back two is missing with a hamstring
2:02injury. Can you start Dylan Samson? And
2:05I think in most cases, I mean, are you
2:06going to be particularly enthused to get
2:09his 4.4 points? Probably not. there's
2:11maybe some very small smidgen of an
2:14upside that Shadur Sanders improves from
2:16year one to year two or that Deshawn
2:18Watson, you know, finds something or
2:20that Todd Monkin totally reinvigorates
2:21the Cleveland offense. But this is a
2:23talent-based bet and I think he is
2:25easily going to have the role with
2:26Jerome Ford out of the building. There's
2:28not really a running back three who I I
2:30would expect to play basically at all.
2:32So I feel quite good about Dylan Samson
2:34as a priority target as a handcuff guy.
2:37This, however, my next one is my number
2:40one handcuff guy. I guess I should have
2:43if I was really good at YouTube, I would
2:44have saved this for later in the video.
2:46But Tank Bsby to me is an every single
2:49draft target in terms of handcuff.
2:51You're going to know exactly when to
2:53start Tank Bsby, and you're going to
2:54know exactly how many fantasy points
2:56he's going to get when he does start. He
2:58only had one game where the team used
3:02him at all. It was the week 18 game
3:04against Washington. What did he do? 16
3:06carries, 75 yards, scored a touchdown in
3:09that game as well. Also got a bunch of
3:10blowout run against the Las Vegas
3:12Raiders in week 15. Had the hundredyard
3:14game in the blowout game against the New
3:16York Giants. But the important thing
3:17here is that the market is treating Bsby
3:20with a little bit of uncertainty because
3:21of the presence of Will Shipley. Will
3:23Shipley is going to play passing downs
3:26and would play passing downs if Barkley
3:28got injured. However, Tank Bsby is the
3:30guy who's going to be able to take
3:31advantage of the worst year of Saquon
3:33Barkley's career in terms of efficiency.
3:36In fact, let's go up and we can go look
3:37at the Saquon Barkley efficiency and
3:39just show you guys how poor he was
3:42relative to his baseline. As you guys
3:44can see, he is further down here in the
3:46rankings. Look at these game logs. 3.3 4
3:492.6 2.3 yards per carry. Had a smash
3:52game here on the ground, but on barely
3:54any rushes against Denver. It was a
3:57dastardly bad season on the ground for
3:59Saquon Barkley. It was in fact the uh
4:01the least efficient rushing season of
4:04Saquon Barklay's entire career, which
4:06seems insane given that the dude played
4:08for the New York Football Giants. I
4:11think there's I mean this there's a
4:12slight chance, let's call it a 17%
4:15chance that Barkley is just not him
4:18anymore and that Bsby is able to earn a
4:20larger role as a very efficient rusher.
4:22I don't think Bsby is going to
4:23contribute at all in the passing game.
4:25He would not be a break glass in case of
4:27emergency start situation. I guess
4:29unless the Eagles were like a 10 and a
4:30half point favorite or something like
4:32that, but I do expect him to be very
4:33efficient on the ground. And I would
4:35expect him to basically fill in Saquon
4:37Barkley's exact role in any game where
4:40he was injured. More of the same with
4:42our next guy. And I think this is just
4:44so easy. You know, the more that we
4:45think about fantasy football and the
4:47more complicated we make it, sometimes
4:48it doesn't have to be that hard. Brian
4:51Robinson is going to fulfill the exact
4:53role that Tyler Algier was in behind
4:55Bjun Robinson. There's very little
4:57chance that Brian Robinson Jr. ends up
4:59ever being a startable player. But sort
5:01of the way I think about fantasy
5:03football, I sort of think of my running
5:04backs like a portfolio. And in your
5:06running back room, you want to have one
5:08or two locked on every week starters.
5:11You know, you've got Chris McAffrey and
5:13you have Kenneth Walker. Great. Then
5:15you'd love to have a Jaylen Warren,
5:17Raandre, RJ Harvey style guy where he
5:20can be your running back three. He could
5:22be a flex starter, but if it's not a
5:24good matchup, if he's a little bit
5:25nicked up, you don't have to rely on
5:26him. Then I would love to have a Dylan
5:28Samson type on a given team. You know,
5:30your pass catcher, your guy who if you
5:32absolutely had to get 6.2 fantasy
5:34points, you could. And I want to have
5:36one or two of these pure stone cold
5:40handcuffs on basically every roster that
5:42I build because in a season where Bejian
5:45Robinson gets injured or in a season
5:46where Saquon Barkley gets injured, it is
5:48going to be so easy to win your league
5:51when you do have one of these guys and
5:53Brian Robinson Jr. fits that to an
5:55absolute tea. When he is called upon, he
5:58ends up being awesome. You know, he was
6:00quite a good fantasy football running
6:02back in terms of what he is when he was
6:04with Washington. He was traded to the
6:0649ers to be exactly what he is this
6:08year, which is a handcuff to an elite
6:10running back. Christian McCaffrey didn't
6:12get injured, so we never had to start B.
6:13We never had to start Brian Robinson,
6:15which is okay. A lot of the times that's
6:17what's going to happen when we target
6:18these handcuffed running backs. They're
6:19going to end up being roster cloggers.
6:22But it's so unlikely that you're ever
6:23going to have a 15, 16, 17 man roster
6:26where everyone is contributing. And
6:28particularly if you are trying to do a
6:30hero running back or a zero running back
6:32build, you probably have to have at
6:33least two guys off this list. So the
6:36first group of guys was Dylan Samson,
6:38Tank Bsby, and Brian Robinson. Next up,
6:41we have our little bit more tricky of a
6:44tier, but still plenty of guys who are
6:46very interesting. And we are going to go
6:48with a guy who everyone has soured on to
6:50some degree, and I maybe don't
6:52understand exactly why, but we have Mr.
6:55perfect rass himself, Mike Washington
6:57Jr., now let me be clear, Mike
6:59Washington Jr. not a particularly great
7:02prospect. But that's okay because one
7:04thing that we know about the running
7:05back position, and it's why I'm making
7:06this video to begin with, is that again,
7:09unlike the wide receiver position,
7:11running back carries and points are
7:13given. Think about some of the running
7:14backs that you personally have started
7:16in fantasy football before. Did you
7:18start Kareem Hunt in fantasy football
7:19last year? Did you ever start Jeremy
7:21Hill when he was on the Cincinnati
7:23Bengals? Do you ever start Alfred Morris
7:25on the old Washington Commanders when
7:27Robert Griffin the third was the
7:28quarterback? There are plenty of these
7:29guys who are athletic enough, good
7:32enough, and I basically see absolutely
7:34zero competition for Mike Washington Jr.
7:37on the Raiders roster. They have my boy,
7:38this is actually true, my boy Dylan Lowi
7:40on the roster. Raheem Mostard is not
7:42there. Amir Abdullah is not there. Zamir
7:45White's not there. Sincere McCormack is
7:46not there. They have no one behind Mike
7:49Washington Jr. who I would even consider
7:50playable at the NFL level. Now, I guess
7:52it would be possible. Maybe they bring
7:54in Naji Harris. Maybe they bring in I
7:56mean, maybe Raheem Moster comes back.
7:58However, Mike Washington is going to be
8:01in an offense that I expect to be much
8:03better than last year. He's the clear
8:05handcuff behind my guy Ashton Genty, who
8:07is going to be one of the few workh
8:09horses in fantasy football. What do we
8:11know about workh horses? They are
8:13tackled more often per game. When you're
8:14tackled more often per game, you have
8:16the ability to get injured. So instead
8:18of having to spend, you know, 50% 70% of
8:21your fab on Mike Washington, I love him
8:23as the end of the bench stash in fantasy
8:26football, he will probably end up
8:28because he's so cheap. You know, if you
8:29go look at the ESPN ADP or the Sleeper
8:31ADP, he ends up being one of those guys
8:33that like if you go do a mock draft
8:35right now, he probably won't even get
8:37drafted in a given league. So, I love
8:39being able to nab one of these guys in
8:41the 15th round. I don't think there's
8:43any chance sadly of like a real breakout
8:45for Mike Washington Jr., but the next
8:48guy I actually do think there is
8:50legitimate breakout potential for. I
8:52might be alone on this, but I am
8:54probably the last person on earth
8:56leaving the light on for my guy Marshawn
9:00Lloyd, nicknamed the yeet cannon by the
9:03Green Bay Packers coaching staff.
9:04There's now been multiple reports that
9:07Marshon Lloyd is clearly the running
9:09back, too. The team has actually said
9:11they're excited about him. Why has
9:12Marshon Lloyd Why are we even still
9:14talking about this guy? We are talking
9:16about a player with legitimately
9:19nine career touches. I mean, sorry,
9:22sorry, seven career touches. I He
9:24actually never even got on the field,
9:26which is so completely insane. However,
9:29when we look at what the team has done,
9:31they've not called Naji Harris. They've
9:33not brought in any of these other
9:35veterans. They didn't make a trade. They
9:36let Emanuel Wilson go. and Emanuel
9:38Wilson actually played quite well for
9:40them last year before they let him go to
9:42the to the Seattle Seahawks. I think
9:44that Marshon Lloyd is the perfect type
9:46of asymmetric bet to make in fantasy
9:48football. You probably think he stinks.
9:50All your friends think he stinks. And I
9:52wouldn't want to be taking him a ton in
9:54a format like baseball where the zeros
9:56really hurt you. But the thing that I
9:58really like about Marshon Lloyd compared
10:01to everyone else that I just talked
10:02about, you know, I don't think Bigby can
10:04earn too much more of a role. I don't
10:05think Mike Washington can earn too much
10:07more of a role. However, given Josh
10:09Jacobs's age and that he slowed down at
10:11the end of last season with that knee
10:13injury, I think there is certainly a
10:15chance given how runheavy the floor
10:17system is that Marshon Lloyd could
10:19actually turn into a flex starter. I
10:20think a really good comparison for
10:22Marshon Lloyd would be someone like
10:23Blake Cororm who basically did not play
10:26at all after being a third round pick.
10:28Now, Corm did not have the same injury
10:30issues that Marshon Lloyd has had, but
10:32if we just assume that he's healthy,
10:34like for example, Jonathan Brooks right
10:36now is so much more expensive. Marshon
10:38Lloyd and Jonathan Brooks have basically
10:40had the exact same start to their
10:41careers where they were drafted highly
10:43and then have been so injured that
10:45they've not been able to play at all.
10:48Marshon Lloyd, I think, was a pretty
10:49decent prospect. You know, an 84th
10:52percentile. Raz was not a huge
10:54contributor in the passing game, but did
10:56enough. The the big issue with Lloyd and
10:58his prospect profile was that he was
11:01basically just never a full-time player
11:03in college, which well, not really that
11:05surprising that he's not even been able
11:06to be a part-time player in the NFL. But
11:08this is a talent bet. This is an
11:10asymmetric upside bet. And if you're
11:13taking Marshon Lloyd and he doesn't play
11:15and he's injured and you have to cut
11:16him, what do you really lose? I mean,
11:18Marshon Lloyd goes in your draft where
11:20defenses and kickers go. So, I think he
11:22is basically the best kind of bet that
11:24you can be making later in draft. So, my
11:26favorite handcuffs to target right now
11:28in fantasy football are Dylan Samson,
11:31Tank Bsby, Brian Robinson Jr., Mike
11:34Washington, and my guy Marshon Lloyd. If
11:36you want more of this analysis or if you
11:38want to get access to my rankings and a
11:39host of reddraft fantasy football tools,
11:42head on over to flock fantasy.com. You
11:44can sign up over there using code Davis,
11:46get the season pass for $34 and enter
11:48into a giveaway to win some of my
11:50fantasy football winnings this upcoming
11:52year just by signing up. Make sure you
11:54like the video and I will be back with
11:55you guys
