0:00All right, very simple. Your fantasy
0:01football draft is coming up today. Maybe
0:03tomorrow you're doing a little bit of
0:04last minute research. We are going to go
0:05through everything very quickly and
0:07concisely to get you ready to win your
0:09league. We're going to go through
0:10strategy, top values, top 100 rankings,
0:12and a very quick mock draft at the end.
0:14Everything you need to win your fantasy
0:16football league this year. There's
0:18basically two optimal ways to build this
0:20year. And you are going to decide before
0:21you head into your draft based on your
0:23draft slot which one you are going to do
0:25which is hero running back where you
0:28take one elite running back then you
0:29pick off a bunch of elite pass catchers
0:31or you do the flip-flop strategy where
0:33you start running back go wide receiver
0:35or start wide receiver then go running
0:37back. I do think you can get away with
0:38the running back running back starts
0:40though you are going to be behind at
0:42wide receiver. I think the top 10 wide
0:44receivers in fantasy football this year
0:46are clearly in a tier of their own. I
0:48don't think a zero running back strategy
0:50in 12 team home leagues is particularly
0:53attainable this year. I do think you are
0:54giving up way too many fantasy points.
0:56Of course, you can also take Brock
0:58Bowers or Trey McBride. That becomes
0:59your elite pass catcher. So, if you're
1:01looking at the flip-flop strategy and
1:03you go running back, wide receiver, wide
1:04receiver, running back, slot in the
1:06tight end for the pass catcher there.
1:08And then think about that. Little bit of
1:09math to show you why you should do that,
1:11which is that running back scoring is up
1:13and wide receiver scoring is down. You
1:16can see the most recent two seasons that
1:18the wide receiver 12 has lost to the
1:21running back 12 by 36 points in 2025 and
1:2613 points in 2024. Wide receiver from
1:292020 to 2023. The wide receiver 12 led
1:32by 34 points. We've seen an absolute
1:34massive shift in that the most recent
1:37couple years. The reason why that is NFL
1:39teams are less effective passing, more
1:41effective running, defenses have gotten
1:43smaller. offensive personnel formations,
1:4512 personnel, two tight ends on the
1:47field has gotten uh become a greater
1:49proportion of the overall scoring pool
1:51and I think that is going to continue
1:53this upcoming year and I also think that
1:55we see running back points disappear
1:57from the board. You know, we get to
1:59round five, starting running backs are
2:01basically gone. Meanwhile, very good
2:03wide receivers are still available. You
2:04can look at guys like you're going to be
2:06asking yourself a question, do I want to
2:08take Jadarian Price or do I want to take
2:10Devonte Adams? Generally speaking, once
2:12we get to about round five, round six,
2:14round seven, then we start to prefer the
2:17wide receivers. And also, wide receiver
2:18scoring is very flat. When you look at
2:21guys who are being drafted in round four
2:23at wide receiver, they effectively
2:24project the same as wide receivers who
2:26are going in round six or in round
2:28seven, which is why we do want to get at
2:30least one of our running backs very
2:32early in a draft. Question I always get
2:34this time of year, right? It is, "Hey
2:36man, who should I take in my fantasy
2:38draft? Who are your sleepers?" Well,
2:40I've got my favorite values at every
2:42position if you're heading into your
2:43draft. Patrick Mahomes, who has finished
2:45as a top 10 fantasy football quarterback
2:47every single year of his career. He is
2:49coming off a torn ACL. The offense is a
2:51little bit shakier in terms of the pass
2:53catchers than it has been, but he is
2:55going outside the top 100 picks. In the
2:56Flock League, no spoilers, but in the
2:58Flock League, Patrick Mahomes was
3:00drafted as a quarterback, too. A team
3:02drafted another quarterback and then
3:04also drafted Patrick Mahomes. I think he
3:06is an insane value. If you are not with
3:08me on that, then I think that you should
3:10go with Brock Pury. Projected for 292
3:12points from my guy Mike Clay, the
3:14quarterback 10. He is an elite fantasy
3:17football quarterback option when he is
3:18starting. Of course, was the highest
3:19scoring quarterback last year in the
3:21championship week. Adds Mike Evans into
3:24the offense. They're going to have
3:25George KD back healthy. They add Dean
3:27Stribbling, who is one of my favorite
3:29values at this point in Vantage
3:30football. So, I really like getting
3:31Brock Pury. If you were in a deeper
3:33format, so let's say you're in a 14 team
3:35league or let's say your league goes
3:37really early on the quarterbacks, then I
3:39definitely think that you want to be
3:40doing Malik Willis, who in my mind has
3:42this awful passing projection. Mike Clay
3:44hasn't projected as the quarterback 24.
3:46Couldn't disagree with Mr. Clay Moore.
3:48Over the most recent 10 seasons, every
3:50quarterback who has gotten 100 rushes or
3:52more has finished as a top 10
3:54quarterback. Malik Willis is easily
3:56going to crest for 100 rushes. And if
3:58Will Willis does not work out, you can
4:01easily drop him. and move on to someone
4:03else on the waiverwire. These are three
4:04guys I'm targeting late. You can also
4:06tell by the values I am waiting on
4:08quarterback. I'm not drafting Josh
4:09Allen. I'm not drafting Lamar Jackson in
4:1112 team home leagues this year. Doesn't
4:13mean that you shouldn't do it if you get
4:15a crazy good price. Like maybe Josh
4:17Allen falls to the fifth round, Lamar
4:18Jackson to the seventh or the eighth
4:20round. Then certainly take him. But I
4:21think the opportunity cost for those
4:23guys is far too large. My favorite
4:25values at running back Kenneth Walker
4:27Belle Tutin and Jacori Kroski Merritt.
4:29Kenneth Walker moves from the Seahawks
4:30to the Chiefs. He signed with the Chiefs
4:32because they told him he is going to be
4:34a workhorse running back. My
4:35anticipation is that this ends up being
4:36the best receiving season of Kenneth
4:39Walker's career. Reports have been that
4:40he is working in the screen game. You
4:42can start with a wide receiver in round
4:44one. You can do something like Justin
4:46Jefferson in round one and then that
4:48gives you the option to get in my mind a
4:50running back one and Kenneth Walker in
4:51round two. Belle Tutin is my favorite of
4:54the tier of Quinchan Judkins, David
4:57Montgomery, Cam Scataboo. I am opting to
4:59go for Belle Tutin there. I think that
5:02he is a much better running back than
5:03Chris Rodriguez Jr. I think he will
5:04easily slot into the role that Travis
5:07ETN left. I'm buying on the Jacksonville
5:09Jaguars. He seems like an extremely good
5:11running back to option in round five. If
5:14I wasn't going to include Toutin, I
5:15would have done Jadarian Price. Then
5:17Jakori Kroski Merritt as my favorite
5:19late running back target. He's probably
5:20going to go a little bit earlier than
5:22this in your league than round 10 at the
5:23running back 39. He is going to be the
5:25lead running back. He actually had 800
5:27yards and eight touchdowns last year.
5:29Rashad White had a hamstring injury in
5:31training camp. JCM has been involved
5:34more as a pass catcher in the Washington
5:36Commanders training camp. I love JCM. My
5:39favorite value wide receivers are Parker
5:40Washington, who is going to be the wide
5:42receiver one for the Jacksonville
5:43Jaguars. I started out the off season
5:45not buying it on Parker Washington, but
5:47it looks like Travis Hunter is going to
5:48be a reserve wide receiver. Parker
5:50Washington is going to be the starting
5:51slot wide receiver. Then we have Josh DS
5:54who has actually gotten a little bit
5:56cheaper as a result of Keenan Allen
5:57signing with the Indianapolis Colts.
5:59However, I expect DS to play better than
6:01Alec Pierce. I expect him to play better
6:03than Keenan Allen. I expect him to play
6:05in two wide receiver sets. I think he is
6:07easily going to clear 100 targets. Josh
6:09DS is probably my favorite value wide
6:11receiver who goes early who like, you
6:14know, everyone has a favorite sleeper
6:15wide receiver that goes a little bit
6:17earlier than their ADP in your league.
6:19DS is my favorite of those guys who
6:21definitely gets a little bit hyped up.
6:22Then we have post hype sleeper Matthew
6:24Golden. They removed Dontaven Wixs. They
6:26removed Romeo Dubs. Matthew Golden is
6:29going to be an every down player.
6:30Matthew Golden got missed on what would
6:32have been two different 90 yard
6:33touchdowns by Jordan Love last year. His
6:35stat line would have looked a lot
6:36different if that had not happened. And
6:38he is also a favorite of the
6:39projections. Wide receiver 36 by my
6:41friend Mr. Mike Clay. My favorite value
6:44tight ends. They're all very boring, but
6:46they are all absolutely free money.
6:48Travis Kelce, who did finish as a top
6:50five PPR tight end last year in the
6:52games that Mahomes played, is just going
6:54to easily deliver that value. It's not
6:56very exciting, but it is very easy. If
6:59you want something that is a little bit
7:00more exciting, the reports on Daltton
7:02Concincaid and his health have been very
7:03good. Daltton Concincaid is top five in
7:05the NFL amongst the tight end position
7:07in targets per route run, fantasy points
7:09per route run, first downs per route
7:10run. His fanfiction metrics are insanely
7:13good. The question is, can he be a
7:14full-time player? I think the Buffalo
7:16Bills are telling us, yes, he can be a
7:18full-time player this year. And again,
7:20if it doesn't work out, you can drop him
7:21and you can just pick up this next guy
7:23who's probably not even gonna get
7:24drafted in your league. Terrence
7:26Ferguson of the Los Angeles Rams is
7:28probably my favorite player in the
7:30entire player pool. I expect him to have
7:32a great first game of the season against
7:34the San Francisco 49ers in Australia. I
7:36think he's going to finish third on the
7:38Los Angeles Rams in catches, receptions,
7:41and yards. I I love Terence Ferguson and
7:44he is uh basically my favorite guy to
7:46tack on late in drafts. Now, we are
7:49going to transition to my top 100 picks
7:51in fantasy football. You can just, you
7:53know what, I don't even care. I mean,
7:54you guys can go to flockfantasy.com and
7:56use code Davis, download my rankings,
7:58download my cheat sheet. The season pass
8:00is $34. But if you don't want to do
8:02that, I don't even care, man. Take a
8:04screenshot right here. My top 100
8:06players, the top tier of players, Gibbs,
8:08Robinson, Chase, Puka, JSN. My second
8:10tier of players goes all the way from
8:12Christian McCaffrey all the way to Brock
8:14Bower. So I think that second round is
8:16very flat. You can see how large the
8:18tiers are in fantasy football this year.
8:20My third tier, my B tier goes all the
8:22way from Derrick Henry to Javvante
8:24Williams. Again, I don't really think a
8:26serious person can say there are too
8:28many distinctions between these players.
8:30I think that the tiers are really large
8:32this year and I think that should really
8:34inform our strategy and it's why I like
8:36going running back early. Then we have
8:38the C tier that for me goes all the way
8:40from Jaylen Wadd down to Carnell Tate.
8:43This is the last tier where I think
8:44there are clear running back one
8:46options. And I think the wide receivers
8:48in this range are either old, which
8:50brings in huge question marks, or
8:52they're of a younger variety and have
8:54larger question marks in terms of how
8:56their efficiency is going to scale with
8:58more playing time. Then the final tier
9:00inside the top 100 does include guys
9:02that I am pretty heavily targeting. So
9:04that would be guys like Raandre
9:06Stevenson. That would be guys like
9:07Jonathan Brooks. That would be the
9:09quarterbacks we talked about. Mahomes
9:11and Perie. They have uh Jakory Kroski
9:13Merritt in there. We have Blake Corm in
9:15there. Stapon Diggs. A bunch of guys.
9:17But seriously, I don't care if you if
9:18you don't want to go to
9:19flockfantasy.com. Link to that is in the
9:21description and down in the comments and
9:22use code Davis. Just take a screenshot
9:24of this and you will still probably win
9:25your league based off of this. And then
9:27we are going to do a very quick
9:29mockdraft. I figured the best way to do
9:31it was probably just to go from the
9:33middle to show you guys the way that can
9:35happen. and we're going to use the Flock
9:36Fantasy settings. If you want to do some
9:38practicing, you can go over to
9:39flockfantasy.com if you sign up with
9:41code davis and send up here. We are at
9:43pick six. We're going to take Jackson
9:44Smith and Jigba and I'm going to show
9:46you guys how easy it is to actually do
9:49the flip-flop start because I would not
9:50start wide receiver wide receiver from
9:52here. I mean, there's a chance no
9:53running back is left for me. Frankly, I
9:55don't love taking Derrick Henry here. I
9:57really don't. But I think structurally
9:59it is so hard to overcome if you do not
10:01take the running back there. if we had
10:02taken Brock Bowers there because largely
10:05the best picks available to us sitting
10:06in here round three. Well, okay, this
10:09draft actually went a little bit
10:10differently. Sometimes Rashi Rice and
10:12Malik Neighbors will make it. We are
10:13going to end up taking we are actually
10:15going to take Bree Hall here. So, this
10:16will be the modified hero running back
10:19strategy and I am following my ranks
10:20here. Bree Hall is coming back from a
10:22groin injury, but it should be fine. The
10:24wide receiver values here are quite
10:26good. Amecha Ibuka sounds like the
10:28turftoe injury is basically going to be
10:30nothing. and we have executed my start.
10:33We have JSN, we have IUK at wide
10:35receiver. We feel great about that. We
10:36have Derrick Henry, we have Bree Hall,
10:38and we can kind of take whoever we want
10:40here. By my rankings, Jadeen Price is
10:43far and away the end of a tier. So, that
10:45is who we are going to select with that
10:46pick. I feel very good about Jadeen
10:48Price. And in most situations, in most
10:51leagues you have, you would not have to
10:53start him week one if you did not want
10:55to. We are gonna easily skip on the
10:57quarterback tier here. The wide receiver
10:59tier here is a little thin. So, what we
11:01are going to do is we are actually going
11:03to add in Jonathan Brooks at this pick.
11:06He just scored a touchdown in the
11:08preseason game for the Carolina Panthers
11:09last night. And then we are going to
11:11skip on the quarterback tier again. We
11:14are going to add in a wide receiver.
11:16Maybe going back now, maybe I should
11:18have taken a wide receiver instead of
11:19Jarian Price, but we are going to select
11:22uh Mai Lemon, who has returned to
11:23practice from the hamstring injury.
11:25Something I like to do is make sure
11:26every team I draft has at least one
11:29rookie wide receiver on. I think rookie
11:30wide receivers we've seen are just big
11:32outsized benefits in fantasy football.
11:35We are also going to select RJ Harvey
11:37who scored a very nice wheel route
11:39touchdown in the preseason. I think that
11:41betting between him, Price, and Brooks
11:43gives us a potential breakout bet if we
11:45don't get anything from Derrick Henry
11:47because Derrick Henry is so old. Now, we
11:50are going to add in Jaden Reed, meaning
11:52that one of Lemon or Reed is a good
11:54potential breakout bet for us. And we
11:56would really actually like to take one
11:58more breakout bet at the wide receiver
12:00position. Let's take a look at the tight
12:01end. Oh, here you go. Perfect. We're
12:03going to take one of my favorite values,
12:04Travis Kelce in this one. I love to take
12:07Travis Kelce at the tight end position.
12:09I mean, that just feels like free money.
12:10You know, you're getting a top 10 tight
12:12end. Uh we are going to do I actually
12:15missed on all my favorite quarterbacks,
12:16so we're going to skip there. Uh,
12:18actually, no, we'll take we'll take
12:20Malik Willis, who I highlighted as one
12:22of my favorite quarterback values. Feel
12:24pretty good about that. We feel very
12:25good about the positional distributions
12:27of this team as it stands right now. And
12:30our final pick needs to be a wide
12:32receiver on this one. And we will select
12:35Omar Cooper Jr., so we have multiple
12:37wide receiver bets at that position
12:39right now. We'll go to the post draft
12:40review. There you go. Right in the
12:42middle of the pack, although not by not
12:44by too much here. And that was an
12:46execution of the strategy that I feel
12:48fine about. We feel completely fine
12:50about the quarterback position because
12:51we didn't spend too much on it. We feel
12:53very good about our running backs. We
12:55have two studs in Derrick Henry and Bree
12:57Hall. And then we have the three
12:58breakout bets in Jarian Price, Jonathan
13:00Brooks, and R.J. Harvey. The wide
13:02receiver room, we have our two studs in
13:04JSN and Ibuka. Our breakout bets in
13:07Lemon, Reed, and Omar Cooper Jr. And
13:09again, in a shallower format, you can
13:11drop Omar Cooper Jr. No sweat. and we
13:13got Travis Kelce at tight end. So, that
13:16is a wrap-up of how you should analyze
13:18and draft fantasy football this year. Of
13:20course, I will answer any of your
13:21questions down below. If you want my
13:22rankings, if you want a little bit of
13:24additional help, you can head on over to
13:25flockfantasy.com. The season pass is
13:28$34. You can get rankings, draft tools,
13:30and everything you need to win your
13:32league. And I will see you guys back
