NFL Fantasy - The Athletic

Lemon is overpriced relative to Dontayvion Wicks, going 45 WR slots higher in ADP despite being a rookie. Author projects the A.J. Brown workload split at 10-7 favoring Wicks, not the market's implied 12-5 advantage for Lemon.

Wicks is significantly underpriced at WR84 ADP versus author's WR45 ranking. He signed a one-year $12.5 million starter contract, and author projects a 10-7 split of A.J. Brown's vacated workload favoring Wicks over rookie Makai Lemon.

Washington is Miami's highest-ranked WR with 1,175 receiving yards departed from the 2025 roster, leaving ~450 targets available that won't be significantly replaced by Tutu Atwell or Jalen Tolbert.

Washington is underpriced at WR70 ADP versus author's WR61 ranking and can be taken in the last four rounds. Despite poor 2025 efficiency (4.9 yards per target), he had 100+ receiving yards in 10 of final 11 college games and ran sub-4.5 40-yard dash.

Robinson was 13th in yards after the catch (YAC) but totaled just 27 yards over expected, and touchdown projection is uncertain at 4-5 TDs.

Robinson is underpriced at WR43 ADP versus author's WR35 ranking. Author projects 136 targets and 92 catches based on his 8 targets/game average and 68% catch rate under Daboll, making him "well worth the pick" at current ADP.

Pierce's red-zone target rate was only 11.6%, about half of desired levels, but it can increase with Pittman gone since Pierce is 6-foot-3 and well-sized for the red zone.

Pierce is underpriced at WR36 ADP versus author's WR23 ranking and has more upside than Jameson Williams (WR27) because he can be the alpha receiver. With Pittman gone, ~40 of 111 vacated targets should shift to Pierce, projecting ~1,200 yards.

Sutton is underpriced at WR35 ADP compared to author's WR24 ranking. Over two years with Sean Payton, he averaged WR13-15 PPR scoring with 20%+ target share, and at current price "he's almost certain to be a single or a double."

Mike Evans is overpriced at ADP WR26 consensus versus the source's WR39 ranking. At age 32, Evans was arguably the worst wide receiver in football, posting 5.9 yards per target (9th percentile this century) and ranking 11th percentile among age-32 receivers in yards per target. The market compares Evans to Davante Adams, who played last year at Evans' age this year, but Adams didn't decline like Evans did. The source questions how many receivers over age 30 who were as bad as Evans later rebounded, noting there are very few historical examples. While the 49ers' passing game is expected to help, the source questions how many top WR seasons this offense has created under Kyle Shanahan.

Ladd McConkey is overpriced at ADP WR19 consensus versus the source's WR27 ranking. The source ranked him ahead of Quentin Johnston (WR39), even though Johnston outscored McConkey on a per-game basis in 2025, with McConkey finishing 12 spots behind Johnston in points per game. McConkey was inefficient with 7.4 yards per target versus the 8.0 league average. The Chargers' offensive line was so poor that Justin Herbert had to run for his life, a challenge Johnston also faced. Johnston is back and the team picked up his fifth-year option for 2027 at $16.5 million, making the McConkey pick problematic relative to Johnston's WR39 price.

Emeka Egbuka is overpriced at ADP WR14 consensus versus the source's WR25 ranking. The market appears to have overreacted to his hamstring pull (which didn't cause missed games), ignoring his dramatic second-half collapse: WR11 in Weeks 1-8, WR36 in Weeks 9-18, and WR82 in the final four games. If the market weighted the second half equally to the first half, Egbuka would be WR19; if it weighted the final month equally, he'd be WR46. His efficiency metrics are poor: 125th in broken tackle rate, 28th in yards per route, and 64th in EPA per target. Mike Evans' departure doesn't justify the rank since Evans didn't receive many targets. Best Ball drafters on Fanball are more conservatively drafting him at WR20 on average.

Brian Thomas is overpriced at ADP WR30 consensus versus the source's WR42 ranking. His 2025 collapse shocked the source: he was WR47 in PPR points per game in 2024 but collapsed in 2025. The team doesn't believe he is a versatile receiver; he ran mostly deep routes with yards per target climbing to 14.2 from 11.4, the latter being the optimal zone. Tape evaluators have proven Trevor Lawrence has zero chemistry with Thomas, who doesn't know when to run a crisp route or when to improvise based on coverage. With a new head coach (Liam Coen) since his 2024 breakout and mostly a new quarterback, the source can't put as much stock into 2024 as the market does.

A.J. Brown is overpriced at ADP WR7 consensus versus the source's WR12 ranking. Brown declined ~20% in yards per target and EPA per target last season, finishing WR11 despite being 29 years old and at the edge of expected decline given his size. His tight window rate climbed 14%, quantifying declining separation ability, and he's breaking down in the lower extremities (knees). The Rams abandoned trade talks after reviewing his medicals, and no team beat the Patriots' offer despite WR scarcity. While many expect improvement with Drake Maye's QB play, the source questions whether Maye will perform as well with a tougher schedule and without the freedom to feed an alpha WR like Brown. The market is absolving Brown completely for 2025 despite these decline signals.

Henderson averaged 5.1 yards per carry and flashed exciting potential, leading fantasy managers to call for more usage; if he becomes a clear 2:1-touch lead back, 240–250 touches could yield 1,500 yards. However, Rhamondre Stevenson bounced back with 11.6 FPPG in 2025 (vs. 12.6 in 2022) and was preferred in the playoffs with 73 opportunities to Henderson's 36. From Week 8 onward, Stevenson outperformed Henderson in EPA/Play, yards per touch, rush percentage of 10+ yards, and play percentage of 20+ yards. The source votes close but no, saying Henderson would be a near-guarantee if Stevenson were injured, but the Patriots seem happy with their dangerous duo.

Harvey posted five straight double-digit scores from Weeks 13–17, including five rushing touchdowns in the first four of those games, and had the eighth-most targets (37) from Week 9 onward. Sean Payton's offense loves a pass-catching, explosive RB. However, Harvey needed a J.K. Dobbins injury and significant volume to have top-20 value, and Jonah Coleman could threaten a committee backfield. After the Dobbins injury, Harvey ranked just 30th among 43 qualified running backs at 4.3 yards per touch. The source votes solid no but acknowledges pre-draft excitement for Harvey as a potential fine RB2/3.

Stevenson bounced back in 2025 with 11.6 FPPG (compared to 12.6 in 2022) after two seasons of injuries and replacement-level performance. From Week 8 through the Super Bowl, Stevenson outperformed TreVeyon Henderson in EPA/Play, yards per touch, rush percentage of 10+ yards, and play percentage of 20+ yards. In the playoffs, Stevenson received 73 opportunities (rushes plus targets) to Henderson's 36, demonstrating the Patriots' clear preference for him as the lead back in high-leverage situations.

White is one of three running backs with 200+ receptions since 2022 and is the preferred receiving option in Washington's wide-open backfield competition. The source prefers White as the receiving option over Jacory Croskey-Merritt and would stay away from the most expensive Commanders RB if ADP reaches the top 25, but White's receiving volume makes him a more attractive target.

Judkins posted 11.1 FPPG with seven rushing touchdowns plus two receiving in 14 games for the Browns, and his receiving ability is underrated with potential to add 40 receptions over a full season toward 300 touches. Todd Monken and Travis Switzer's offense should favor the run game. However, his Dec. 21 injury was gruesome, and depending on the quarterback, he could see fewer targets; the revamped offensive line could be worse, and Dylan Sampson or Raheim Sanders might create a timeshare. The source votes yes for a breakout if a 15% FPPG bump qualifies, but no if expecting top-16 RB status.

The source believes Hampton's talent gap to Ashton Jeanty is as slim as Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs entering the league; he has bell-cow ability with plenty of pass-catching upside and can eclipse 300 touches over a full season. The Chargers' offensive line is healthy and improved (worst PFF run blocking grade of 37.7 last year), and Mike McDaniel as new offensive coordinator will push the offense forward. Despite concerns about a possible 60% backfield share and run-blocking struggles, the source gives an unequivocal yes vote that Hampton's talent and situation make him a locked-in RB1 breakout.

The Commanders have a wide-open backfield competition and were one year removed from a top-five offense that gave running backs 18 rushing touchdowns in 2024. However, Rachaad White is one of three running backs with 200+ receptions since 2022 and is volume-reliant; Croskey-Merritt did not impress last year, leading to Chris Rodriguez commanding touches late in the year. If Jayden Daniels gets hurt again, the offense likely collapses. The source votes definitive no, staying away from the most expensive Commanders RB if ADP reaches top 25, preferring White as the receiving option.

Rodriguez is a quality running back option in Jacksonville who could receive touches alongside Bhayshul Tuten; if Tuten struggles early, Rodriguez could create a full-blown timeshare. In Washington, Rodriguez commanded touches late in 2025, outperforming Jacory Croskey-Merritt and suggesting he is a viable committee option if Croskey-Merritt does not seize the lead role.

Before his Week 8 injury, Skattebo was RB7 in half-PPR FPPG from Weeks 2–7, and he showed passing-game potential with 32 targets, 24 receptions, 207 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in eight games. Greg Roman's run-game success and John Harbaugh's endorsement support his potential as a top-tier back; the Giants offered the ninth-most goal-line rush attempts (30) last year. The source gives a scary yes vote, with mid-RB2 value feeling like a lock if Skattebo plays a full season, though injury risk is real.

Tuten is explosive and better near the goal line than assumed, fitting HC Liam Coen's running back preference; even if he cedes touches to Chris Rodriguez, he'll have the vast majority of RB targets. However, he had only one game with double-digit carries as a rookie with sporadic performance and flashes mixed with underwhelming rushing plays. Rodriguez is a quality option that could create a full-blown timeshare if Tuten struggles early. The source votes no on a top-16 breakout but values him in a Jaylen Warren–RB2 range.

Jeanty is top-end talent who averaged 12.9 FPPG despite the Raiders' atrocious offense and offensive line (negative yards before contact heading into Week 5). With a healthy Kolton Miller and Tyler Linderbaum at center, the offensive line should be significantly better, and a bell-cow workload is still a given. The source votes an obvious yes for top 16, but an uneasy yes to breakout into 15+ FPPG territory and the top 10, given uncertainty around Kirk Cousins' performance and whether Klint Kubiak can succeed as head coach of a struggling team.

Warren disappointed in his rookie season given his potential and ability, but has significant upside if QB Daniel Jones remains healthy for most of the season; the source projects him to finish among the top three tight ends under that condition.

After his first two starts, Shough was QB12 in FPPG (18 FPPG in Weeks 10-17) with a 70.3% completion rate (second only to Brock Purdy) and 260.1 passing yards per game (seventh). He sparked the Saints offense with more downfield passing compared to previous starter Spencer Rattler (6.2 yards per attempt) and developed strong rapport with WR Chris Olave. However, the source gives a 'solid no' vote on Shough as a 2026 breakout QB candidate; despite his strong eight-game stretch, Shough only had eight passing touchdowns (T-18th), his accuracy on 15+ yard throws was poor (25% completion rate, fifth-worst among 32 QBs with 250+ attempts), and his rushing ceiling is modest (300-400 yards with a handful of TDs), unlike Dart or Willis.

Willis ranks fourth in TD or first down per attempt rate (22.3%) since entering the league despite facing pressure on 42.5% of dropbacks; he boasts a 13.3% designed rush rate (fourth-highest among QBs) and has rushed for 405 yards on 74 attempts (5.47 YPA) with four touchdowns. The source cites Daniel Jones' 2022 season (120 carries, 708 yards, seven TDs) as evidence that rushing production can elevate a QB to top-10 finish despite modest passing stats. However, the source gives a 'no' vote on Willis as a 2026 breakout QB candidate, noting 'it's close'; the source is torn between Willis' rushing upside and concerns about his limited career sample size, short-area completion bias, new offense learning curve, and an exceptionally weak receiving corps (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, three rookie additions).

Dart averaged 20 FPPG last year (excluding first two games), which would have ranked as QB6 over the past 10 seasons; his value heavily relies on rushing (487 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games). With new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and senior offensive assistant Greg Roman, the source expects Dart to maintain his rushing ability despite talk of 'making him more cautious,' as he has historically failed to change his ways like Cam Newton, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. The source gives a strong 'Yes! Yes! Yes' vote on Dart as a 2026 breakout QB candidate, citing Nagy and Roman's complementary skill sets (Nagy on passing game, Roman on run game) as a structural advantage that will allow Dart to maintain his rushing production while improving the passing game.

Likely's numbers jumped significantly without Mark Andrews on the field: route percentage (38.4% to 71.0%), team target percentage (7.9% to 16.3%), yards per reception (10.5 to 12.6), yards per route run (1.18 to 1.70), YAC per reception (4.9 to 6.0), and FPPG (5.2 to 10.7). He has an attractive 11.6 yards per reception (seventh best, min. 100 targets) and 5.5 yards after catch per reception, ahead of Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Brock Bowers. The source gives a 'yes' vote on Likely as a 2026 breakout TE candidate, though projects him as a 'backend TE1'; head coach John Harbaugh brought Likely with him from Baltimore (similar to Daboll with Robinson in Tennessee), suggesting Likely will get his breakout opportunity as the clear No. 1 tight end for the Giants, no longer competing with Mark Andrews.

There is a good chance Fannin leads the Cleveland Browns in targets, but the source believes that likely leads to a repeat of his rookie season and a borderline top-five TE finish, suggesting limited upside despite target volume.

Despite missing time and playing through injuries, Kincaid ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per target over the past two seasons; he leads all tight ends in targets per routes run rate (TPRR%) at 25.9% and boasts the highest off-target percentage (13.7%), showing his dynamic playmaking with limited quality targets. He posted 2.13 yards per route run (second-highest) and there is speculation his usage will significantly increase under new OC Pete Carmichael. The source gives a 'yes' vote on Kincaid as a 2026 breakout TE candidate, stating 'we finally get our wish'; the source expects new OC Pete Carmichael and head coach Joe Brady to significantly increase Kincaid's usage after he was involved in only 41% of routes over the past two seasons due to injuries and offensive design.

Loveland broke out late last year; the source's projections put him first overall at tight end, though the source notes a top-three finish feels far more likely than not at this point. He is a second-year tight end showing high-upside potential.

Ward posted 15.1 FPPG after the Titans' bye with 10 touchdown passes and just one interception (vs. 4.9 average for all QBs during that span), despite throwing to fourth-round rookies Chimere Dike, Van Jefferson, and Elic Ayomanor. The Titans added WR Carnell Tate in the draft and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll brought WR Wan'Dale Robinson, significantly improving Ward's weapons and offensive scheme. However, the source gives a 'wavering no' vote on Ward as a 2026 breakout QB candidate; despite improved weapons and Daboll's arrival, Ward's rushing upside is modest (200-300 yards, 2-3 TDs), his completion percentage remains concerning (62% post-bye, 57.6% pre-bye, seventh-highest off-target percentage at 12.8%), and he will need weeks to learn a new offense.

At age 28, Herbert is below the quarterback peak age range of 29-33, suggesting upside ahead and that his best fantasy seasons may still be coming.

Kraft expects to be full go for Week 1 after tearing his ACL in Week 9 last season, stating he's doing 'better than expected' physically and recently clocked 21.5 mph while sprinting. He anticipates starting training camp on the physically unable to perform list but head coach Matt LaFleur left open the possibility for him to be on the field for the first training camp practice in late July. Kraft said: 'With how I feel, I would say I'm gonna get all the conditioning I need in camp to start Week 1 on no pitch count.' He also reported: 'I feel great. My quad looks great. Swelling is minimal to none. No weird pains and aches coming out of my treatment and my trainings.' Before his injury, Kraft ranked third among tight ends in receiving yards (469 yards; Tyler Warren had 492, Travis Kelce had 474), tied for second in touchdown catches (six; Dallas Goedert had seven), and first in yards after catch per reception (11.2; second place was 7.9) through Week 8. Kraft believes he was the NFL's best tight end at the time of his injury and expects to return to that form immediately, stating: 'That's what Week 1 is all about. I'm not really buying into the people come back off an injury and aren't the same.' He is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is likely to sign a contract extension with the Packers in the near future, potentially becoming the highest-paid tight end in the NFL this summer.

Kraft expects to be full go come Week 1 after tearing his ACL in Week 9 last season. He said he's doing 'better than expected' physically and recently clocked 21.5 mph while sprinting. He anticipates starting training camp on the physically unable to perform list but head coach Matt LaFleur left open the possibility for him to be on the field for the first training camp practice in late July. Kraft stated: 'With how I feel, I would say I'm gonna get all the conditioning I need in camp to start Week 1 on no pitch count.' He also said his quad looks great, swelling is minimal to none, and he has no weird pains or aches coming out of treatment and training. From Weeks 1-8 last season before his injury, Kraft ranked third among tight ends in receiving yards (469 yards; Tyler Warren had 492, Travis Kelce had 474), tied for second in touchdown catches (six; only Dallas Goedert had more with seven), and first in yards after catch per reception (11.2; second place was 7.9). He described his role as a do-it-all Y tight end capable of performing across all offensive schemes and situations, claiming no other tight end in the league was doing it as well as he was at the time of his injury. Kraft expects to return to that elite form immediately, rejecting the narrative that players come back from injury diminished: 'I'm not really buying into the people come back off an injury and aren't the same.' He is entering the final year of his rookie deal as a 2023 third-round pick and is likely to sign a contract extension with the Packers in the near future, potentially becoming the highest-paid tight end in the NFL this summer (George Kittle currently leads at $19.1M/year, followed by Trey McBride at $19M/year).

The source uses Jeremiyah Love as an example of how to customize individual player projections in the tool; users can navigate to the Arizona Cardinals team tab and adjust yellow-shaded cells to tweak Love's projected rushing yards, rushing attempts, and overall workload to reflect custom assumptions about his role and productivity.

The source uses J.J. McCarthy as an example of a customizable projection parameter in the tool, asking whether he will start 10 games; this illustrates how users can adjust individual player game-start assumptions to model different scenarios for his overall fantasy output and rankings.

The source uses Bucky Irving as an example of a customizable projection parameter in the tool, asking whether he will get benched and only see 25% of the rushes this year; this illustrates how users can adjust individual player workload assumptions to model different scenarios for his rushing volume and overall fantasy output.