10 Tight End Questions with Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath!

Ian Hartitz notes that Bijan Robinson is drafted inside the top two picks in any draft and that the Falcons offensive system and quarterback situation are not concerns for his draft position. However, Hartitz expresses skepticism about whether Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees deserve credit for their offensive design, questioning if they are being overrated based on their success with prime Nick Chubb years ago. The Falcons offense could finish 30th in scoring in December, which would create downside risk for Robinson despite his elite draft capital.

Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath likes Bowers as a player and in the Clint Koviak Raiders offense, noting he averaged north of 16 fantasy points per game without his knee brace last year despite offensive chaos (injuries, Chip Kelly firing in November), giving him round-two pick-worthy upside. However, Heath's line in the sand is not clicking Bowers in round two ahead of running backs like Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, and Ken Walker that he thinks will outscore him. Heath advocates for a specific draft strategy: target one of the top-four running backs (Gibbs, Robinson, Taylor, or McCaffrey) in round one, then loop back to late round two to acquire Bowers. This strategy is more realistic in home leagues than higher-stakes drafts due to ADP variance. Heath is open to Bowers in mid-to-late round two after those backs are off the board, as tight ends have higher hit rates in later rounds than other positions and running backs/wide receivers provide more value of replacement.

Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath pushes back against the assumption that Carson Beck's arrival in week 8 will tank the Cardinals offense. He argues that Lafleur won't want to be the fall guy or tank commander (he already was for Zach Wilson), and therefore won't stand for the offense becoming bad after Beck enters. Heath cautions against assuming no one will score fantasy points in the Cardinals offense for the rest of the season once Beck takes over, though he acknowledges the schedule is brutal through week 12-13.

Ryan Heath cites Chase Brown as a running back example he prefers over Brock Bowers in round two, believing Brown will outscore Bowers and provide more positional value than using a round two pick on a tight end. Depending on league site ADP, at least one of these running backs (Brown, Henry, Walker) goes after Bowers, making them preferable targets ahead of the tight end.

Ian Hartitz identifies Christian McCaffrey as one of the top four running backs (alongside Jalen Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Jonathan Taylor) that he ideally wants to target in round one before looping back to Brock Bowers in late round two as part of a draft strategy to secure elite RB production while still getting Bowers at reasonable ADP.

Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath believes Loveland could reach consensus dynasty tight end one status by next year. From week 15 onward, Loveland led the Bears in targets per route run and fantasy points per route run on a much higher route participation rate than Luther Burden, making him the better version of the Burden bet. Heath has advocated for Loveland ahead of Burden throughout the offseason and is most interested in drafting him as the early-round tight end across all platforms. Loveland has real insulation relative to Bears wide receivers; there is a genuine chance he leads all Bears pass catchers in routes this year given the team's commitment to multi-tight-end sets (12 or 13 personnel) and lack of a serious wide receiver three option to replace DJ Moore. At the end of last year in heavy multi-tight-end sets, Loveland averaged over four yards per route run and a 50% receiving yards market share, suggesting the offense could look like that from week one forward. In a draft scenario where you can choose between Brock Bowers at the end of round two or Colson Loveland at the end of round four, Heath would take Loveland every time, viewing the later-round selection as the better value proposition. Ian Hartitz is ranking Loveland ahead of Trey McBride in tight end draft rankings, signaling preference for Loveland's value proposition over McBride's round-three pricing.

Ryan Heath identifies Dallas Goedert as his preferred late-round TE pick, getting a discount for no clear reason. His splits with and without AJ Brown over his career have been excellent. Goedert can be clicked and expected to deliver a low-end TE1 floor at minimum with no evidence of decline. Eli Stokes has no effect on his route share. The new Jalen Hurts offense emphasizes throwing over the middle, which benefits Goedert. He offers a stabilizing floor play with upside.

Ryan Heath cites Derrick Henry as a running back example he prefers over Brock Bowers in round two, believing Henry will outscore Bowers and provide more positional value than using a round two pick on a tight end. Depending on league site ADP, at least one of these running backs (Brown, Henry, Walker) goes after Bowers, making them preferable targets ahead of the tight end.

Ryan Heath is bullish on Drake London as an alpha target earner with elite fantasy upside when healthy and the offense has pass volume. Heath states "I'm very I'm big on Drake London this year. I I like him quite a bit just because he has uh been been like such an alpha target earner in so many situations throughout his career in so many different systems. I and has has been a good fantasy scorer. Anytime he's been healthy and that there's been like real pass volume in the offense." Heath ranks London WR9 and projects a 188-target pace (17-game) with Michael Penix Jr., which could result in 15+ more targets than the next-closest WR even if the Falcons finish 30th in scoring. London averages 20.6 fantasy points per game in his 12-game sample with Penix, described as "elite wide receiver one stuff." His presence on the field directly suppresses Kyle Pitts' efficiency and target share, making London the clear alpha in the Falcons passing game.

Ryan Heath is intrigued by George Kittle despite age 33 and Achilles tear recovery. Kittle leads all tight ends in yards per route run over the last five years and leads all players in EPA per target over the last five years (ahead of Puka Nacua). Heath states "Uh KD I'm intrigued by... Uh leads all tight ends in yards per run over the last five years. Uh leads all players in EPA per target over the last five years which is crazy ahead of Puka Nua... So he him like over a Mark Andrews over a Travis Kelce for sure for me." Kittle is also the only tight end with a sub-6.5 average target depth who posted a top-three scoring season over the last decade, establishing him as the exception to the rule. He alternates with Tucker Kraft as the leader in yards after the catch per reception over the last five seasons.

Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath identifies Harold Fannon as the archetype example for pass-catcher tight ends on bad offenses in trailing game scripts. This archetype—flex-type tight ends that are pass-catchers only on bad teams—sees increased snap share when offenses are in constant passing situations and lack good receivers, forcing more opportunities to the tight end. Fannon is also one of the big four early-round tight ends (alongside Cal Pitts, Tucker Kraft, and Sam LaPorta) requiring meaningful draft capital in most leagues; missing these four early forces waiting 20-40+ picks.

Ryan Heath ranks Jahmyr Gibbs as the clear RB1 over Bijan Robinson, citing the Lions' superior run game compared to the Falcons. Heath states "Gibbs is like the clear 101 over Bejon to me," placing this preference in the context of his praise for Detroit's run game design and execution. This represents a direct draft ranking preference favoring Gibbs' situation and offensive line/scheme advantages over Robinson's despite Robinson's elite talent and top-two draft capital.

The market is currently drafting Jameson Williams as the clear number-two option for the Lions, but when Sam LaPorta is healthy and on the field, Williams is not the clear second option. LaPorta is either tied with or just ahead of Williams in targets per route run, target share, and all-pro route stats, suggesting the Lions' target distribution is more balanced between the two than current ADP reflects.

Ryan Heath highlights Jared Goff as one of the quarterbacks most effectively using motion at the snap in the NFL, positioning him as an ideal fit for incoming Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Heath states "Look at Jared Goff, uh, who is one of the quarterbacks that has like used the motion at the snap like the most effectively of anyone in the league." This is framed as a positive marriage of talent and scheme that could elevate the Lions' already elite passing game. Heath also cites Dan Campbell's track record of mid-season offensive improvements (2021 with Anthony Lynn, previous work with John Morton) as a safety net if the transition struggles.

Ryan Heath flags Jonathan Taylor as a massive concern despite round 18 ADP. Taylor did not live up to round one draft capital and is extremely game-script sensitive; he is not active in the passing game and relies on positive game script to get fed 25+ carries. In games where Daniel Jones was injured or when the Colts were falling apart at year-end, Taylor's production suffered significantly. Heath explicitly fades Jonathan Taylor in round one this year, noting he is not a different bet than Derrick Henry or Ken Walker who go later on better teams with higher Vegas win totals.

Ryan Heath prefers Josh Downs over Tyler Warren to capitalize on the intermediate target opportunity left behind by Michael Pittman's departure, liking Downs at his cheaper ADP as the better value play for that role in the Colts offense. The core bet on Downs is that he will run the most routes of his career by far in the Colts passing game. However, this thesis is threatened by potential free agent signings of Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, or Debo Samuel, which would signal the Colts are unhappy with Downs on the outside or want to rotate more, affecting his route share and target opportunity.

Ryan Heath explicitly avoids Kyle Pitts at his current draft price due to severe Drake London splits. When London was healthy (weeks 1–11), Pitts saw only 14% first-read target share in the intermediate range (5–15 yards depth), dropping to tight end 17 in fantasy points per game. When London was off the field, Pitts's intermediate target share more than doubled to 35%, demonstrating he was only involved in high-value fantasy routes for 3–4 weeks. Heath states "I'm just not paying the Kyle Pitts price uh relative to a Leaporta or to a Tucker Kraft" and "I'm out on Kyle Pittz," citing the Falcons offense upside concerns and the persistent London role conflict as reasons to fade Pitts despite his talent.

Ranked below George Kittle and Dallas Goedert in Ryan Heath's late-round TE preference; Heath explicitly prefers Kittle over Andrews in the veteran TE tier.

Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath views Marvin Harrison Jr. as a more relevant target than Trey McBride in the context of Carson Beck's potential week 8 arrival and the Lafleur-led Cardinals offense. The key distinction is price: Harrison Jr. is much cheaper than McBride, making him a better value play if the offense stabilizes or improves with Beck's arrival.

Ryan Heath is rooting for Michael Penix Jr. to win the Falcons starting job or at least become the starter at some point in the season because of the elite chemistry he has shown with Drake London. Heath cites London's 20.6 fantasy points per game average over 12 Penix starts, which he describes as "elite wide receiver one stuff." This suggests Penix's presence in the lineup significantly elevates London's fantasy production and represents a positive scenario for both players' fantasy value.

Ryan Heath notes that Omar Cooper is round-one talent whose poor offensive situation is already priced into his draft cost. He can be taken late without concern because the bad offense discount is fully baked in.

Ryan Heath's favorite tight end pick and flag plant for the year. Over his career with 75%+ route share, LaPorta has averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game across an 18-game healthy sample, which would have ranked as TE2 behind McBride last year. He is tied with or ahead of Jameson Williams in targets per route run and target share in all-pro route stats, yet the market is drafting Williams as the clear Lions WR2 when LaPorta is healthy. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has maintained Trey McBride above 75% route share in each of his last 29 games, suggesting LaPorta's route and target volume could increase. With the Lions having the highest implied Vegas points per game total of any team, LaPorta has outlier touchdown upside and is positioned as an underrated middle-to-late-round tight end target. LaPorta also has significant contingent upside if either Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jameson Williams gets injured; his weekly projection increases by three to four points in those scenarios. However, LaPorta is recovering from a back injury and avoided the PUP list, though there is some concern about his health status.

Favorite tight end pick and flag plant for the year; drafted several rounds later than historical ADP despite excellent full-time role production. In 18-game sample of games with 75%+ route share, averaged 15.9 PPG—which would have been TE2 behind McBride last year. Tied with or ahead of Jameson Williams in targets per route run and target share on all-pro route stats, yet Williams is drafted as clear Lions TE2 option. Undervalued relative to production when healthy and on field.

Ranked below George Kittle and Dallas Goedert in Ryan Heath's late-round TE preference; Heath explicitly prefers Kittle over Kelce in the veteran TE tier.

Ian Hartitz expresses skepticism about paying a round-three price for Trey McBride in 2025, despite acknowledging McBride's elite 2024 production. The fade is grounded in offensive context changes: Marvin Harrison Jr. being healthier will reduce McBride's target share; the Cardinals won't feature as many two-tight-end sets or heavy tight-end usage; and McBride will face better cornerbacks rather than the weak receivers he faced last season. Hartitz prefers any wide receiver in round three over McBride. However, Hartitz notes this fade "scares" him given McBride's demonstrated talent, distinguishing it from a confident fade like TJ Hockenson last year. Fantasy Points' Ryan Heath similarly fades McBride despite acknowledging his talent; won't pay a round-three price. While McBride has averaged north of 17 PPR points per game over the past two seasons (top 7 among combined WR/TE), Heath views the Lafleur-Hackett partnership and overall offensive environment as insufficient to justify early-round capital.

Ryan Heath values Tucker Craft highly for exceptional tight end efficiency metrics. Craft leads or ties for the league lead in yards after catch per reception over the last five seasons alongside George Kittle, and excels in yards per target and yards per target over expectation. Heath states he cares about hyper-efficiency for tight ends and Craft checks that box because he is special after the catch. Ian Hartitz notes that Craft and Evan Anderson have very low average target depth (sub-6.5 yards), which makes them exciting with the ball in their hands but potentially limits their ceiling. However, Craft's exceptional efficiency profile mitigates this concern and makes him a special prospect. Craft is recovering from an ACL injury but should be back by week one.

Ryan Heath values Tucker Kraft highly for tight end efficiency metrics. Kraft leads or ties for the league lead in yards after catch per reception over the last five seasons alongside George Kittle, and excels in yards per target and yards per target over expectation. Heath states "I really do care about the hyper efficiency for tight ends. Uh I would say Tucker Kraft like checks that box for me in that he's just so special after the catch. uh like every single year for the last like five seasons, it's been either him or George KD that leads all tight ends in yards after the catch, per reception." This efficiency profile is critical for tight ends given their lower target volume relative to wide receivers, making Kraft's ability to maximize per-target production a key draft asset despite his sub-6.5 average target depth.

Ryan Heath views Tyler Warren as part of the consensus top-three tight ends but expresses uncertainty about his trajectory. Warren's rookie season stats were comparable to Brock Bowers' rookie year, and he had a hotter start than Colson Loveland despite being two years older with five years at Penn State as a backup. His early-season success came off play-action and RPO when the Colts offense was leading the league in passing yards per game and top-five in red zone visits, though Heath views him more as a beneficiary of that system than a driver. However, Heath has concerns about Warren's durability given the Colts' quarterback situation—Daniel Jones is coming off a right Achilles tear and may not be at 100% in week one, which Heath frames as a concern for Warren's fantasy outlook, though less severe than for Jonathan Taylor.