0:00breaking down the top 10 questions that you should be asking yourself for all things running backs ahead of 2026 fantasy football drafts with the one the
0:08only established the runs finest John Dagel what's up Johnny football doing great it's that time of the year where all of us are getting tagged in for
0:17seasonl long discussions tiers I saw you forawire also just put out a video of your tier running backs I along with you
0:25are also ready to discuss everything and I actually prefer to talk about running backs more than wide receivers. Maybe because there's less of them. Maybe
0:32because like there is a skeleton key in fantasies football and all it is is touches. So, we're just trying to find
0:37who's going to get touches. So, yeah, I'm really excited for this show.
0:41>> And it seems appropriate, John, because again, we're fully moving into home league's reddraft season. I get it. But a lot of times, baseball, I think, can
0:48help point us in the right direction of topics that are going to become more prominent amongst the, you know, more casual players as August comes. And this
0:56has kind of been the year of running back, man. We've seen it multiple years in a row now. These guys have finally
1:00stayed healthy. We actually have like 16 to 20 running backs. You can argue project very nicely to have this like bellcow role. It seems like everyone's
1:08finally buying into running backs. I just can't help think John that once we all kind of buy into something that's when the rug pulls out.
1:14>> Correct. I agree with you and that's why I'm a lot more open even after last year. I This is not even a humble brag.
1:22I won multiple championships in in charity leagues and like friends leagues, industry leagues that you and I both play in. But I only say that
1:29because everyone thought despite the increase the past two years in elite running back production that you then had to jam two heavy running backs to
1:39start your draft. But that's not the case at all. Especially when you get into deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.
1:43There were so many championship teams last year I had where I was even starting guys like Audrey Esttomay and Devin Neil for example. Like you got to
1:51remember the running backs will come.
1:52You have to win them off the waiverwire or have them stashed, but they will happen. Even starting someone like Woody Marks and RJ Harvey in the last month
2:00could have netted you a championship because the rest of your team was then elite and being extremely efficient, especially if you drafted all the 49ers,
2:08Christian McCaffrey, Brock Perie included. So, I think there are multiple ways to win fantasy championships. I'm not necessarily trying to suddenly think
2:16zero RB is dead, but we're going to talk about some late round guys as we move on in the show.
2:21>> We've seen some weirder running back performances over the last few years.
2:24Amir Abdullah, I think, was the RB8 during the 2024 fantasy playoffs.
2:28Bam/Zonovan Knight was a thing there for a little bit. Again, it really is that one position where just one injury has
2:34to happen before someone you've never even heard of. All of a sudden on the cover of those Waverwire articles. By the way guys, if you are looking for
2:40some fantastic Wavewire articles, invite you to check out Johnny's work over at ETR amongst the rest of their glorious crew. You guys really are setting the
2:47standard and I appreciate you my brother. With that, let's get into the show. John, with the top of the draft, I
2:52think everyone's going to be needing to ask themselves this question. Jir Gibbs versus Ban Robinson. If you're a hipster who prefers Jamar Chase, fine, go right
3:00ahead. But for me, Dagel, these are the top two players in fantasy football. I have been confidently just going with Jamir Gibbs because I think both him and
3:07Bejian are awesome. I think they project for similar volume. I think they're also in the prime of their careers. I just
3:12think the Lions scoring offense is going to be much, much, much better than the Atlanta Falcons. Is it really that simple?
3:19>> I think it is. And I'm not even saying this is what's going to carry over, but we do have six career starts without
3:25David Montgomery for Jir Gibbs, and he's averaged an absurd 27.4 PPR points in those six starts. Last year it was hit
3:34or miss to close out the season even with David Montgomery injured for Jir Gibbs because as we expected the offensive line cratered uh a unit that
3:43they really didn't make any improvements and just lost people during last off season. They understood that the Lions did and this year they improved it both
3:51in the draft and in free agency. So I think it's a significantly better situation for the Lions. I expect their offense to be humming along again,
3:59especially with Dan Campbell once again calling plays as he did in the second half of the year. And so I will have Jir
4:05Gibbs.
4:06>> Uh what now?
4:08>> I think Psoning's calling plays. It'll of course be a collaborative effort, but >> yeah. Uh because that was really John
4:13Morton's issue last year. A lot of play callers across the league, but John Morton literally did not learn a single thing and carry over a single thing for
4:22whatever reason from Ben Johnson. So, I would imagine Dan Campbell will not let that happen again and will still make sure the foot is on the gas at all times
4:30for this 2026 Lions offense. Having said that, Bejon Robinson still a very comfortable 102 uh last year improved in both yards per carry, touches, target
4:40share, especially points per game from the year prior. And that was including being out carried by Tyler Algier inside the 5yd line. Algier has since moved on
4:49to Arizona and maybe Brian Robinson gets that role. But really, I think Bjon Robinson is a a comfortable 102 given the running backs and wide receivers
4:58that then come back to you if you pick in the first two spots.
5:02>> Both guys capable of catching 80 passes and both guys have that one hitter quitter or home run speed that we love.
5:08So the Puket thing has just been the only potential red flag. But man, you mentioned it. Just seeing last year Campbell take over from Wharton and just
5:14kind of get the offense back to grooving, which kind of was just an example of him putting more work on Jir
5:19Gibbs plate in the first place. That should give us solace. I think it went bad last year. They made a bad OC hire
5:25and it still didn't really matter. I'm with you. I think the offensive line issues were far more detrimental than anything about Gibbs down the stretch
5:32last year.
5:32>> I'm also a petting bull. There aren't many of us, I know, but if you remove last year when everything fell apart in
5:39Arizona, which is now a tanking team, the Cardinals were second and third in team yards per carry the two years prior. I think he's actually one of the
5:48more intuitive run game callers in the entire league. And now with a beefed up offensive line, I just think it helps
5:55and makes uh gives Jir Gibbs more progressive play calling between the tackles.
6:00>> I've always looked at kind of like team running back yards before contact.
6:03That's one of those things where it can kind of give you a decent idea of like how good a schemer is and the play
6:08caller is. And we do regularly see the Ravens and the Cardinals, the teams with the dual threat quarterbacks of the world rank highly in it. But give Ping
6:15some credit for uh man do that with or without Kyler. I get it. These last again 2023 and 2024 seasons as you
6:21brought up. We did see the Cardinals actually work as a top eight offense in EPA per rush. So I'm with you there.
6:27Unlike in Petting and also [ __ ] like I've tried to just revert to some, you know, more real life ball knowers. Not
6:32that we don't know our ex's and O's, but for me, ESPN's Ben Solic, Yahoo's Nate Ty, very, very sharp guys who I lean on
6:38a lot. They both love the Drew Petting hire, so who am I to overly disagree with that? But again, guys, Jir Gibbs
6:44versus Bejon. Can't really go wrong. If you want to draft Bejan, go for it. Me and Johnny though, team Gibbs 101 gets a
6:51little more interesting after this. All right, we got Chase, we got Puka, we got JSM, maybe even our one true sun god in
6:56this next conversation. Next running back conversation though is Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. So, the common adage, John, has been like when
7:04CMC's healthy, he breaks fantasy football. That is true. I'd also argue it's pretty much true for Jonathan Taylor, man, because we only saw 2021
7:11when he led the league in rushing and then last year where he still averaged, I think, north of 20 points per game,
7:16even with the second half fallout. Those are pretty much the only two years he hasn't had some annoying early season injury. He had to eventually work his
7:22way back through. So, CMC, JT, pretty much the consensus. RB3 and RB4. Any good reason not to take them in round
7:29one? In round one, it's fine. But where are they going round one? I'm personally skeptical. And I can sit here saying
7:38this now. Even though I believe you and I did a show together last year, and I was skeptical of Saquon Barkley at that
7:44time, too. I took Bjon Robinson and I made my entire personality around Christian McCaffrey from 110 on over Saquon Barkley last year, and I'm using
7:53the same argument for Christian McAffrey this season and why I'm worried about him. Uh his 450 touches were the 10th most of the 21st century last year. And
8:02there were only 38 times that a running back handled 350 plus including the playoffs since 2014. So over the last 12
8:08years and only six of those running backs, 15.7% improved in points per game the following season. That includes Saquon Barkley last year who handled 480
8:17plus touches in 2024. Then last year lost 7.7 points per game as the RB15 that you drafted in the first round. Not
8:26great. I'm not saying McAffrey is going to reach that point, but it's at least nitpicking enough in the first round where I do want other players over him,
8:35including Justin Jefferson, who we're not going to talk about on today's show, but I just think there are better situations for me to draft in. Same
8:41thing goes for Jonathan Taylor, who I'm worried about. Through week eight, everyone recalls with Daniel Jones healthy. The Colts were first in EPA per
8:48play. Jonathan Taylor in that time was the overall RB1 ahead of McAffrey with 27 PPR points per game. In the second
8:55half of the season though, Daniel Jones is injured. The Colts fall to 21st in EPA per play. Jonathan Taylor falls to
9:01RB9, averaging 11 fewer points per game than that first half of the season. So, my point is when you when you zoom out
9:08and ask which Daniel Jones and Colts offense are we going to see, given Daniel Jones's career, most likely it's not the one that's the most efficient
9:17offense in the entire league. It's somewhere a median between that first and second half. And if that's the case, I am a little bit worried about Jonathan
9:24Taylor given that throughout his career, he has yet to put together a double- digit target share in every season. And that's how you spike an overall RB1
9:32finish. So, in baseball, we're talking portfolios and many teams. I'm going to naturally sprinkle in those individuals.
9:39Sure. But if anyone's watching cuz they're a home league drafter, just your recreational better and more fun fantasy football drafter, they probably care
9:47about one to three leagues. And like in my quote unquote one to three home leagues, I'm not taking Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. And
9:54that's just me.
9:55>> I tend to agree with you, but it scares the [ __ ] out of me, John.
9:59>> Oh, yeah.
9:59>> You could just be looking at it again.
10:01And I I kind of did a similar study you did and had one of the same takeaways, too, where like the yards per carry fell
10:06off quite a bit. That's kind of been the case for CMC for quite some time. Like all the rushing efficiency metrics that
10:11we, you know, fantasy alleged experts care about, they tell you that CMC was a bad rusher last year. it just doesn't
10:17matter when you're legit a wide receiver one that happens to be playing running back. So that'd be my only, you know,
10:22potential push back with CMC. It feels like we're just saying like, well, look at the history. I get it, but the
10:28history isn't literally running backs catching 100 passes like CMC.
10:32>> I completely agree with you. I just think the argument is a lot like George Pickins this year and that I understand
10:38if you missed the boat because you were scared last season with Christian McCaffrey pickings, but now you're just chasing them at the prices that we kind
10:46of figured they'd end up in. And I don't like chasing last year's points because we don't get last year's points. And if
10:52you do, please call me. I want to join your league. [laughter] >> That would be quite handy. So, last thing on JT, which is why I would still
10:58keep him RB4, even though I'm with you.
11:00I've been clicking on Monro St. Brown and even Justin Jefferson often over him. Last year, you look at teams that actually left one running back on the
11:07field for at least 90% of their snaps.
11:09Very, very rare in today's NFL. Only the 49ers, the Colts, and the Raiders actually, shout out Ashton Genty, did that for at least a quarter of their
11:16games. So, that would be my one argument in favor of Jonathan Taylor. It's that he's not really this guy who doesn't
11:21catch passes anymore. He pretty much had career-high fantasy numbers from receiving last year. We don't have a Naim Heind to really be worrying about
11:27these days. So, could that change with Giddens or McCullen or one of these other guys? I guess. But I do think like
11:32I've heard the wide draft Jonathan Taylor when Dererick Henry is there around later. And Henry's, we'll talk about him in a minute. He's perfectly
11:38fine. But JT, I think his newfound pass game floor a little bit maybe underestimated.
11:44I understand the argument and again I'm going to sprinkle these guys in, but Jonathan Taylor is one that most likely I won't have a lot of given his ADP and
11:54the fact as we move along here, uh, the next tier of running backs, I like a couple guys quite a bit over JT and
12:01Christian McCaffrey.
12:03>> How do you like my name, John? RB5 through RB12 right now. And I'm just using baseball because I do think that
12:08ADP will generally be how we shift things in home league. But from picks 11 through 18, again, we have freaking eight different running backs going. The
12:17Great Wall of RBs, John, that's what we're going with. [snorts] >> It's very catchy.
12:22>> Thank you. Out of those RBs, John, again, we have Ashen Genty, James Cook, Saquon Barkley, Omaran Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, Deonte Chan, and
12:29Dererick Henry. Again, this is what you guys are going to be seeing in drafts, end of round one into the mid part of
12:33round two. Which one of these guys do you want on your team the most, and which one scares you the most?
12:38>> I'm going to take Ashton Genty over Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor.
12:42Uh, I think he's in for a massive year.
12:45Last year, of course, was blaming solely the offensive line and play calling, quarterback play as well. We're just changing everything up for Genty this
12:55season and having the number one overall pick at quarterback, a offensive coordinator or play caller head coach I should say in Clint Kubak that just
13:02allowed Sam Darnold to have a careerhigh and yards per attempt and vastly improved offensive line including the one of the best centers in the entire
13:10league Ty Linder bomb now really calling the shots from the center of their trenches. Not only that, but the Raiders last year were one of only 12 teams in
13:19the last decade to score 80% of their touchdowns through the air.
13:22Unsurprisingly, that's a high number.
13:24So, no, none of those 12 teams have been able to duplicate that number the following year. Thus, we're kind of expecting more rushing touchdowns. And I
13:33looked at where running backs were both drafted and then finished in PPR leagues on Twitter, by the way, not Jay Dagel,
13:41uh, for those follow-up seasons. And there are a handful of minor hits and misses, but like if you draft the RB14,
13:50let's say, and he finishes the RB30, that seems detrimental. You can get by with that. That doesn't win or lose your
13:57league and vice versa. But there were massive hits for those running backs in the following years. Uh Orleans Darkwis, if you recall, for the Giants in 2017,
14:07was undrafted. He finishes the RB 40 in points per game. James Robinson in 2020, I believe it was, was the RB67 drafted.
14:15He finishes the RB7 in points per game.
14:18So, Ashton Genty is being drafted, as you said, at the end of the first round, the RB5. There's not many more hills for
14:23him to climb to be any higher, but I do think there's the outs for him to outscore Christian McCaffrey this season. So, that's a player that I'm
14:32focusing highly on at the first second round term. The other one John the the big issue here would just be do we think
14:40the offense is going to be that much better improved? Sure. All right. They don't have much room to go but up. I
14:45like Clint Kubak too. You mentioned Linderbomb. Quarterback situation should be better. Again, not a high bar. I do like leaning though because this is
14:51July. We're all optimistic about everyone. It's the fun thing to do during the summer months. I like leaning on the Vegas implied team scoring ranks
14:58at this point and seeing what the, you know, people in Sin City think about it.
15:01Raiders offense 28th right now in again implied scoring rank. I went ahead and I did look in the past at how correlated
15:08our high-end fantasy running backs with their team scoring rank and it is pretty strong man. Only quarterbacks actually in fact had a stronger kind of R
15:15coefficient when looking at that thing.
15:17That said, the two the I should say the biggest variable that helped running backs and bad scoring offenses still be great in fantasy land, it was that pass
15:25catching upside. Man, I think the average of like the 14 running backs who have pulled this off. Average at least 50 catches. The medium was about the
15:32same thing. And it was like 12 of the last 13 caught at least 40 balls.
15:35Derrick County was the only one that didn't do that. So that would be my alert for like Ashen Genty. Are you conf
15:40that he's actually going to have a high target share in Las Vegas because again that seems to be the cheat code in fancy
15:46land getting that full point per reception for our running backs. If you're catching 60 70 passes, man, it is awfully hard to bust even if you're in a
15:53bad offense. I am fairly confident especially because why it took until they started healthy scratching Raheem Moster I'll never know but from that
16:01point forward in the second half of the year that's when Genty had a double- digit target share and in terms of elus
16:06breaking tackles again it he was actually at a a terrific rate it's just that he was getting crushed behind the line of scrimmage at a league high rate
16:14because his offensive line last season was terrible >> they were they were so RB5 Ashen Denty is going to be John's click among the
16:21group who scares you You talk about fading Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. Uh the one I'm scared about who I'm going to
16:29have zero of in the second round is my boy Aggie great Devon Achan who benefited the last couple years with the
16:36second high third highest target shares in his position because of the deficiencies of Tua Tonga a statue quarterback. Now we're taking out Tua
16:45and adding a rushing quarterback and Malik Willis. We're taking away Mike McDaniel who then understands how to change the players and get the best out
16:54of them in his offense. And that's why I assume Achan had such a high target share. But then we're also adding an
16:59entirely different head coach and offensive coordinator and Bobby Sloic as well. I'm just not sure this target share and thus the ceiling carries over
17:07for Achan, especially with a rushing quarterback taking away carries logically. So, Achan is the player in the significantly worse situation that
17:16unfortunately I won't have any of.
17:19>> And it's just one of those things, man, where I know what we just talked about, all right, bad offenses. We can still
17:23have running backs overcome that by being gifted pass catchers, which A Chan is, but man, we're taking a big leap of
17:30faith to assume Bobby Slo's going to keep Achan anywhere near as involved as McDaniel was. I'm with you on the two
17:35and Malik Malik Willis difference as well. Malik Willis over these last two seasons, single highest scramble rate in the league in terms of how many times
17:42he's taken off per drop back. You guys have watched two a play. All right, he's bottom five, but you just know again
17:47from watching this dude that he's nowhere even close to that. So, that's the issue, man. Because I've seen also the push back. We're like, well, dual
17:53threat quarterbacks help their teams run game efficiency. And that's true. The grab and read option game. We've seen guys like Mike Vic, Tyrod Taylor over
17:59the years, like running backs have more yards per carry with them than without them. But Dgo, like an extra point4 yards per carry doesn't make up for all
18:07the loss and target share, and it especially doesn't make up for these quarterbacks factoring into the rushing touchdown equation once we get to the
18:13goal line.
18:14>> And I also want to give a shout out to Saquon Barkley, who I I believe his ADP should be flipped with Jonathan Taylor
18:20this year. You just have to ignore literally everything the Eagles did with Kevin Patulo last season. Uh, we're getting Shawn Manion now, who does come
18:28from Shawn McY and the Rams, but more importantly, at least in camp, seems very much open-minded to a far more progressive offense, not limiting the
18:37Eagles and their most talented players.
18:39Uh, you've, like myself, have written about the Vikings and Eagles, and it's funny because when you do that, all you're saying the entire time is career
18:47worst mark, career low number. Uh, that's what it is for like the Eagles and the Vikings across the board. And both situations have improved
18:54dramatically in 2026. So Saquon Barkley is also a player who I did not draft last year, but it's a new season and I
19:01think it's going to we're going to get not necessarily the 2024 numbers, but a top three top four running back finish
19:07is very plausible.
19:08>> Now Saquon is the guy I am highlighting over this, but again, a lot of good points with Genty. I certainly don't
19:12want to be missing the boat on him as well. It is funny with some of these offenses like Washington and obviously
19:18Philly and I'm forgetting uh the other one, but uh oh, Baltimore with Declan Doyle. These first-time play callers, it's all going to be great, John.
19:25They're going to be under center.
19:26They're going to use play action.
19:27They're going to use motion. It's all going to work out and just be fantastic for everyone involved. But in Philly's case, that is the one situation where
19:34I'm like, good God, is that Barlo. This guy has to be better.
19:38>> Has to be. And that's kind of one of the lessons as every year, you know, we do this a little bit longer. Now, it's been
19:43too long, frankly. But we we learn a little bit more every season and see where we went wrong. And I've said this
19:49on shows before, where I went the most wrong last year was trusting that the play callers uh who took over were just
19:57going to take what was right the year prior. Again, John Morton did not from Ben Johnson. Kevin Patulo did not from
20:05Kell Moore. And that happened across the league. Nick Kaye too for the Texans.
20:09And so just because you get a a coordinator change doesn't mean it's going to be different. But at least for the Eagles, it can't be as bad. Like
20:17even league average would be significantly better for these Eagles players and their ADP. So I'm just trusting Manny in this situation.
20:25>> I was hoping that Tanner Angstrand like you know would have stolen Ben Johnson's playbook kind of like the water boy
20:30coach back in the day who you know got got but unfortunately that wasn't meant to be either. So please please new
20:36coaches just just help our guys and fans. That's all we're asking. Next stretch of running backs John we got dogs and probably bad offenses. Right.
20:43Jeremiah Love, Bree Hall, Travis ETN, lesser extent in those two guys, but still also got kind of boring veterans and great offenses. Kyron Williams,
20:50Jamonte Williams, Josh Jacobs. Still guys who, you know, we shouldn't be surprised if they finish as RB1s, but obviously a reason why we don't
20:56necessarily have them ranked that way.
20:58What has been your general round three strategy around these guys? And do you have a strong take on anyone involved?
21:04>> I do believe the dead zone really starts around Kyron Williams and Breece Hall.
21:08Perhaps they they bounce back and ruin me because of that. But if you look at historically, Shawn McY has leaned on
21:16one running back. And for the first time ever last season, that did not happen.
21:21Before the Rams buy, Kavern Williams averaged 18.2 touches per game.
21:25Afterwards, just 16.9. The actual share of touches dropped from 74% to 60%. A massive drop. And that benefited Blake Corm, who was the more explosive player
21:36in the second half. Cororm actually led all running backs in success rate last year and finished up second only to Achan in his rate of 10 yard carries. So
21:44I am out on a Kairen Williams committee.
21:46But before that I do love two players in particular. Uh let's wait and see I should say on Jeremiah loves ADP because
21:55I'm interested. I understand the Cardinals have the league's toughest schedule. They're really rebuilding and it's plausible that no one in that
22:02organization is there after this year.
22:04That's how really bad this situation is for Arizona. But I like to take a a big picture look at everything. And Ryan
22:11Heath, who's doing tremendous work at fantasy points, I'm sure he'll be on this show with you at some point. Uh he
22:16had mentioned that, you know, for speed score when we're looking at how these players have fared in terms of their size and 40 time. Jeremiah Love, uh just
22:25like Jir Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Travis ETN, those were the last first round running backs with a speed score of 110 plus. Jeremiah Love fits that
22:34mold, fits into that bucket. And so even though Jir Gibbs' rookie year was the RB8 in per game points in a
22:40committee with David Montgomery, Bjan Robinson was the RB 17 in points per game in a committee with Tyler Algier.
22:46Although these players still started slow, ended strong and when they were isolated from injuries around their committee were amazing. That maybe could
22:53be the case for Love this year with Tyler Algier. I still think he's just put in the same breath as those guys and
22:59could eventually emerge um as a top 12 running back. So, I'll I'll take a chance and swing on that ceiling in the
23:05third round. And then I I think another great one who's going to go behind Kyron Williams and Brie Hall is Travis ETN.
23:13The Saints are the opposite of the Cardinals this year and that they're projected to face Warren Sharp's second easiest schedule and ETN as we know is
23:21at the very minimum a workhorse. He's had 290 touches in two of his last three years. And the Saints offense last year
23:28finished 29th in yards per carry. Now you're getting, although volatile, an explosive running back in Travis ETN, who can sporadically make everyone
23:36better. So, I like ETN a lot in that Kell Moore offense that last year was first in plays per game.
23:42>> What's the argument for ETN over Javvante? Because is ETN maybe a little bit better in real life? Sure, I'll give
23:48you that. But I don't need any guesswork to conclude the Cowboys offense is going to be a freaking wagon this year. I am a
23:54little bit more more worried about the Saints version.
23:57>> I am a little bit concerned that the Cowboys offense could be different. Like we're all copying and pasting their their passing numbers from last year.
24:04And Dak has always been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Uh most efficient one of the most efficient passers I should say whenever everyone's
24:10been healthy. That's really been a struggle. But the defense is not going to be the same as last year. like all
24:16the the dogs they added, especially if you look at their splits whenever they traded for Quinn and Williams, they quietly became
24:24>> they they quietly became one of the best run defense in the entire league and then teams just started throwing on
24:29them. But now we're adding Caleb DS and other players who I think are going to make a significant impact for Christian
24:35Parker or new defensive coordinator there. So, I I am curious if the Cowboys can actually carry over that ceiling and maybe they're just a better team this
24:43year that is not as good for fantasy.
24:46>> Any concern about Alvin Chimera? Seems like he wants to play football this year.
24:50>> Do the Saints want to play football this year? That's my concern.
24:53>> I know, man. I just if I hear you. If ETN, if we don't have the Chimera factor, if they decide, hey, you know
25:00what? I would like to go play with my old friend Shawn Peyton. or if the Saints just say, "You know what? We
25:05appreciate everything you've done. See you. Best of luck with everything and they cut him." Okay. I just feel like they already would have done it by now.
25:11I totally get shooting ETN the top of this kind of tier of players if he is going to be just the only running back
25:16involved. But I'm just worried that Chimera is still there. We get to week one and it's like way closer to a 6040
25:22split than he was anticipating.
25:24>> Completely fair. I've actually just washed Kamara out of my mind because I genuinely don't think he's on the roster uh in week one, but I could very well be
25:35wrong.
25:36>> You should not look at my underdog exposure, Johnny. We are playing some risky >> I've heard about Jerry Judy. Don't
25:40worry.
25:41>> Oh my god. Yeah, don't even get me going with that one. So, Jeremiah is an interesting one though because again once we're starting like
25:48earlier in the offseason, I feel like he was being pitch and hold as this like round two pick and I definitely wasn't
25:52doing that. But more and more as we get in to round three, you know, Josh Allen's off the board. we already have,
25:57you know, the tight ends we really like or we're just kind of waiting for round four for Coulson Lovelin anyway. Like
26:02there is a point where we're starting to get in these wide receivers where it's like yeah maybe it is going to be the
26:07lab makoni or maybe it is going to be a mecha IA or Jaylen Wald or one of these guys or maybe we just take the number
26:13three overall pick who we know is explosive who we know can catch the football and yeah he's not in a great
26:17offense but man if that Cardinals offense is just average below average instead of dog [ __ ] John like we're going to be like why didn't we just
26:26draft the freaking baller in round three and worry about the rest later. And I think that's what Jeremiah Love and Travis ETN allow me to do because I
26:34really want to make all of my drafts about winning that third tier of wide receivers. Zay Flowers, Lad McConi, Amecha Ibuka, Terry McLaren, Luther
26:44Burden, Mike Evans, all those guys are going to compete to be top 12 wide receivers, not being drafted as top 12
26:51wide receivers. And I want to hammer that tier, four to six of them. And so what running backs can I take that still
26:59allow me to carry out that draft plan?
27:02And I think ETN and Love still potentially do that. That's also though why I'll probably jam Ashton Jenjenty and Saquon Barkley up my home league
27:10boards and then pick apart the wide receivers in rounds three through eight.
27:15And we'll talk a little more overall strategy here at the end too. But that is kind of John where I don't even feel
27:20the need to go with the double click necessarily. But hero RB in particular if you will call superhero where you get
27:26two running backs early. I'm more so than just hero RB. Give me the Bejon.
27:30Give me Gibbs or something. I'll figure out the RB2 later when I got probably a sick tight end and then four or five of
27:35those wide receivers you mentioned.
27:37>> And again, Bejon and Gibbs, you have to be one of your first two picks. By the way, uh I I was thinking about this last
27:43night. I clearly was under the influence. Uh, we are just one month away from pretty much guaranteeing someone in our league takes Brian
27:52Robinson over Bejian Robinson. And I absolutely cannot wait because you should not allow them to take that sticker off the board. They should keep
28:01Brian Robinson at the 102 whenever they inevitably draft him.
28:05>> If that sticker hits the board, it's done. I don't care if you messed up.
28:08>> Exactly. We've already made that rule in my league, by the way. Once that happens, because it's going to happen, it's you. It's all you from there. I
28:15absolutely love it. I actually went into an ESPN auction mockdraft lobby in like the middle of June on a Tuesday. I think
28:22there was four of us in there and I nominated Brian Robinson for 50 bucks hoping that someone would just not catch
28:28it. I got Brian Robbins for 50 bucks, John. Apparently the uh ESPN auction mockdraft lobbies are a little bit sharper uh than I gave him credit for.
28:36So, shout out to those guys. All right, we've kind of gone through basically like the top 18 19 or so running backs
28:43at this point. actually had a video go up on this channel with my guy Jagger May breaking down zero RB strategy. And
28:49this was kind of like the part that we just said, okay, we've gotten past Kyro Morris, we gotten past Josh Jacobs, like
28:55RB20 on is about what you should expect to be taking running backs round four, round five and beyond. These are kind of
29:00like our zero RB heroes or at least we would like to think. Again, with this range, we have a mix of players. We got
29:05the horrible 2025 injury. Now they should be go should be ready to go in week one. How healthy Cam Scaboo, Quinn
29:12Sean Judkins. We got other guys where it's like, yeah, there are going to be touches for him and decent offenses, but
29:16what's a split going to look like?
29:18DeAndre Swift, Trayvon Henderson, Bucky Irving, Bashaw 2, Ninja Darian Price.
29:22And then we have the potential dead zone vibes, lack of pass down roll, how good's the offense going to be? Dave
29:26Montgomery has been getting a lot of flack for that. Actively clicking or fading any of these guys? Like, was there a name or two that really piqu
29:33your interest there?
29:35Yeah, when I talk about the running back dead zone, I I come back always though, assuming I'm still not hammering wide
29:43receivers in this spot. I come back for two players. One is none other than boring David Montgomery. The changes the Texans had this off season emphasized
29:55David Montgomery strengths. Whether it's Ed Ingram, who they signed for 37 million, I believe it was. They brought back Trent Brown at tackle, drafted
30:03Caleb Ruten in the first round. Those three guys adding to their offensive line, they all rank elite at Pro Football Focus in gap blocking schemes
30:13rather than man blocking. And Dave Montgomery's yards per carry, 5.7 in gap blocking last year per FTN Fantasy. It's a terrific situation. If you're curious
30:24how they're going to use him, just recall a couple years ago they traded a seventh round pick for Joe Mixon. Gave
30:29him 20 touches per game as fantasy's RB9. They gave a fourth and seventh for David Montgomery. They are going to use
30:36him until he cannot be used anymore. So, I think he's just a boring we're going to beat you down and win games RB2 that
30:43I'm definitely interested in. Also, I thought I was going to be fading this individual, but ADP didn't catch up to really the run out that Bashel Tutin has
30:53had all off season where they haven't been interested really in adding anyone.
30:57I understand Chris Rodriguez, Liam Cohen's boy from college is there, but also Bashel Tutin is volatile enough in being an explosive player who perhaps
31:06doesn't pan out. You have to remember in baseball you mix in Chris Rodriguez, that's fine. But in season long leagues, all we care about from fourth, fifth
31:15round on, maybe even before that, is ceiling. And Basel Tuton is the kind of runner as the second most athletic running back in combine history only
31:24because Mike Washington showed up for the Raiders and is now the most athletic running back ever. Basel Tuton is the kind of player who can win your league,
31:31especially if you're taking him at his cost. So, I'm going to just take a shot on Basil Tutin every time and cross my
31:38fingers it works out after finishing with the fifth highest success rate of any running back last season.
31:44>> I am also a 2026 Tuton guy. Wasn't in the bandwagon so much last year, but new year, new me. The thing I keep coming
31:51back to, man, is like this borderline RB2, if not even high-end RB3 price tag.
31:56I feel like that's where Toutton lands in the weekly ranks. If it is like a 6040 split between him and Crod or 603010 Sha
32:04Laquent Allen Jr. If we just see him week one it's like oh man Tutin had 18 combined carries and targets. Crod had
32:12six 75% snaps in that offense bro like Bashalt Tuton is the one guy that sticks out here where as soon as we get
32:19reasonable usage that we can I think reasonably expect the lead running back here in offense. We like Bash Ton could be ranked in the top 12 as early as week
32:27two or week three. completely agree. And again, it could go wrong, but all I care about is upside in our home leagues. And
32:34I think he offers the kind of upside that could then suddenly sneak and we could be drafting in the second or third
32:40round next year.
32:41>> So, I'm with you. I'm chasing the upside, too. That's why I feel like it's a little bit backwards to also be cool
32:45with Dave Montgomery. Is that more so like a build type of thing? Because I will admit, okay, if I found my way to
32:51get, you know, three awesome wide receivers early, I got a Coloulston Lovelin there and I don't have a running back yet. Yeah. Okay, I am a little more
32:57willing to take a guy whose ceiling is probably more of a low-end, you know, RB1 like a Dave Montgomery. Is that kind
33:03of where you're coming from?
33:04>> Coming from a usage standpoint? Yeah.
33:06Again, there's no skeleton key in all of fantasy football, but projecting touches is as close as we get for especially at
33:12running back. And so Dave Montgomery is a guy given the mix and workload that I mentioned. I really do think we're
33:17looking at 20 plus touches per game. um they're and they may not be exciting, but also we don't give Dave Montgomery
33:24enough credit for earning those touches alongside Jir Gibbs. We always just wanted to see only Jir Gibbs, but Dave Montgomery was very good when he was
33:31healthy for Detroit.
33:32>> Kind of like the DeAndre Swift thing, too. They get kicked the curb for a really freaking good running back.
33:37Perhaps gave him a little too much slander for that. So, well said. I will say there is a skeleton key, John. His
33:42name is Marshon Lloyd, but we'll save that topic for another day.
33:46>> Would you let's paid as well. Do we have time?
33:50>> What's your fade? Yeah, go.
33:51>> Yeah. So, we talk about this to your players. Uh, the first thing I look for, like my alarms go off whenever we start
33:58projecting running backs who have never had large workloads for large workloads.
34:03And Jadarian Price, I can't believe the cost. Uh, just 295 touches on his collegiate resume. And despite that small workload, still four fumbles, only
34:1415 career catches. and even on a per route basis because people say, "Oh, he just didn't get targets, didn't get catches because he didn't play."
34:21Jeremiah Love was first in this class and target per route run. Uh Jiren Price was second to last in target per run
34:29among this class. Even when he played, he could not earn targets at all. And now we're trying to jam him 18 touches
34:34per game just because he got drafted in the first round for an offense that plays outdoors without Clint Kubak.
34:40There is no chance in hell we are taking Jenerian Price at ADP. No way.
34:46>> Okay, I do appreciate you making that argument without trying to act like George Helani is some sort of big concern that we need to be worried
34:52about.
34:53>> I will give you credit there. I think it's more of a Kenneth Walker situation receiving wise. Sure, we haven't seen
34:59it, but we have no reason to actually think that Price can't catch the football. Funny but true, John. 55 receptions during his last two seasons
35:06in high school. Okay, how about that for Darian Price? Then he like ruptured his Achilles, I think it was early at ND. We
35:12don't talk about that anymore. So, I hear you from the profile standpoint. A lot of people did believe it was a reach
35:18for him to go round one in the first place, but don't you think there is a chance that we're sitting here in
35:22November just being like, "Yeah, why didn't I take the round one running back on the Seahawks, though?"
35:27>> I would be shocked if we're sitting here doing that. If you if you loved Zamir White two years ago, you're going to
35:32love JM Prize this year. Love >> Fair. I will say out of this group, I prefer Swift. I prefer pretty much
35:41everyone other than Bucky Irving J to Jarian Price. I can't get behind Bucky this year.
35:46>> Well, it's it's very obvious all the signs they've given us in Tampa Bay that they want to use a committee whether it
35:52be allowing Shawn Tucker to be there inside the fiveback last season now adding Kenneth Gainwell. And I don't copy paste Kenneth Gainwell's target
36:00share from last year, which you know, we'll discuss Aaron Rogers in a bit here for another running back I really like
36:05in the mid rounds. But the fact is they now have a bruising running back at the goal line, a passcatching back and Bucky
36:11Irving between the 20s. And so Bucky Irving, if he's not going to get those target shares because of his of being
36:17undersized, we are now seeing it kind of trickle out throughout his career that he's battling multiple injuries. It just doesn't seem like the ADP is worth the
36:25squeeze.
36:26>> Last thing on Tooten because again I'm with you and I want to just continue to hammer home that he is our big target
36:30here in this range. Don't love the Chris Rodriguez foot injury, John. I'm even a little curious if it could be one that,
36:36you know, rhymes with KissFrank or something uh going on there. It's not ideal man.
36:43>> I agree with you. Uh and that's about it for me in this tier, though. I I think I'm comfortably talked about where I'm
36:51coming back in and then zooming back out. I'm still deciding personally in my draft strategy what my tight end plan is. It It's Brock Bowers over Trey
36:59McBride. I won't have any Trey McBride again. This is not the show for that.
37:02invite me back on. We can talk about it in depth. Um, but when do I when and if do I draft Colston Lovelin? If not, then
37:08who am I waiting for? That's really what I'm working through right now.
37:12>> It is interesting the fall off that kind of happens around round 10, round 11 with tight ends. But to John's point,
37:18story for another day. Let's get really gross. Now, personally, I found very little reason and accordingly I haven't done this much to click Tony Pard, Chuba
37:26Hubard, or RJ Harvey this off seasonason. Good idea or bad idea?
37:30>> Terrific idea. Uh, I mean, you can't you can't take the starters that are worse than the backups. We we want to just
37:36rather take those pot shots on the players we think have a higher ceiling, even if we have to wait them out. And I
37:42think that's what's ultimately going to happen for this this crew of backups.
37:45But starting with Tony Pard, uh, that's not the pass catching back. It will be most likely Nick Singleton who again we
37:53will probably have to wait on Nicholas Singleton to earn that role later on.
37:57But players who have played historically on passing downs have more outs in those laterers rounds. And Nicholas Singleton did earn a double- digit target share in
38:05his last two seasons with Penn State. He also averaged one and a half yards per out run and his last three playing slot
38:13or out wide on 20% of snaps. So, he could definitely be the pass catching back uh who could outscore Tony Pard.
38:20>> Well, Spears should be it from week one either way.
38:22>> Correct. The thing is about drafting Spears 2 though is that he has not been able to beat out Tony Pard and so I
38:29don't want to then take that chance thinking he's the one who wins the backfield. Most likely, you know, really, most likely we are dropping Taj
38:38Spears and Nicholas Nicholas Singleton by week five. That's fine. But that's why you take the ceiling shots.
38:43Understanding we're going to grind the waiver wire anyway.
38:45>> RJ Harvey, uh, it's always bad. You do this like me, so I know you understand.
38:49We may be talking to each other. It's always bad when you have to scroll to the last page to find a player's
38:54numbers. Cam Ward is the first player that comes to mind. RJ Harvey is the Cam Ward of running backs where you have to
39:00go to the very last page to get to his success rate, his explosive rate. You could stay there if it talks about
39:05getting stuffed to the line of scrimmage. R.J. Darby was incredible at that stat, but very clearly Shawn Payeyton then focused on Jonah Coleman,
39:14who does have also an elite resume. 6.8 yards per carry at just 20 years old with Arizona, 80 catches on 90 targets
39:22in his last three years. And his yards per route run last year was second in the class behind Jeremiah Lot. So Joe
39:28Nicoleman is someone who I actually think it's going to happen much quicker than Nicholas Singleton for Denver, albeit it still may have be a committee
39:36with R.J. Harvey. And then of course Jonathan Brooks behind Chuba Hubard. My only issue with Brooks is that he still uses an O and Jonathan. I wish he
39:44changed it up, but that's fine. I know how to spell it. I I know how to spell it, so that's okay. But really just
39:49think about I talk about not being able to beat out the starter. Chuba Hubard could not beat out Rico Dael who was
39:56Walter Peyton whenever he got a chance without Chuba Hubard. And so Jonathan Brooks is at such a discount compared to Chuba Huard. Regardless of whether we've
40:05seen him play football and we haven't for two years, I just think taking that dart on Jonathan Brooks is perfectly fine compared to what we know Chuba
40:14Hubard does not offer us.
40:16>> Let's everyone listening here, let's just all agree. Don't talk about Jonathan Brooks. All right? Let's keep it our secret. Let's keep him as a late
40:24round pick. He's going outside the top 120 on Sleeper and ESPN right now. I was in an FFP draft where I saw him go ahead
40:30of Chuba. And it wasn't that ridiculous, John. I could I I I'm going in a draft.
40:34I'm looking at my ranks. It tells me Chuba Hubard is the next player to draft. What do I do? I don't draft Chuba
40:40Hubard. I move him down in my ranks.
40:41He's the Corland Sutton of running backs. I don't want anything to do with it.
40:45>> Completely agree. And Brooks is definitely going to be the biggest riser in FFPC drafts as we move along this summer. No doubt.
40:51Man, oh man. So, the RJ Harvey stuff, I just I get worried because I'm so out in the guy. Like, I ranked him like an
40:57insulting RB41. Like, that's just a point where it's like, oh my gosh. Like, really? Yeah, I'm saying really because I don't see it. It wasn't as good as
41:04Dobbins. Wasn't wasn't good at all last year. And I'm with you on everything about Coleman could be a nuisance to him
41:09both pass pro and goal line. Also still facing all those, you know, just chasing, I should say, the Shawn Payeyton, you know, Alvin Chimera,
41:15Darren Sprouls, ghost from past years, and we just haven't really seen that show up in Denver as well. So, yeah, R.J. R.J. Harvey not quite doing it for
41:22me. That said, I'm not really interested in Coleman or Dobbins either, man. I just think it's going to be this annoying three-back committee. If one
41:29guy gets hurt, like, all right, we'll adjust at that point. But the problem is last year, and I see this push back a
41:34lot. It's like, all right, well, what happened when Dobins? He gets hurt every year. He got hurt again last year. And
41:38Harvey put up RB1 numbers down the stretch. That's fine. He was the only show in town during that time. I am
41:44very, very skeptical that would still be the case even if Wen Dobbins gets injured to the point where I'm kind of
41:49with you. Coleman could just take the whole handcuff job.
41:52>> Again, it might be slower, but also for RJ Harvey, that's kind of why we were drafting him, too. Uh, he could have
41:58been your RB2 and deep championship teams despite being so inefficient just because he gave you 20 touches per game.
42:05They were bad touches, but 20 touches per game, you're going to plug in regardless of your situation pretty much every time. And that's why we're kind of
42:12talking about these running backs because I do think that is their range of outcomes despite going later on. All his good plays coming against the early
42:20season Cowboys and Bengals, too. I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical, Johnny. All right, after this range, this is where we get like the cheap backfields that
42:28are cheap because we don't exactly know who's going to be the leader. Okay, we got Pittsburgh. Talked about Denver and Carolina a little bit already, but
42:34Washington with Shaw Rashad White and Bill Krosky Merritt. Also Minnesota with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. So those five teams, John, Pittsburgh, Denver,
42:42Carolina, Washington, Minnesota. Again, that's a big chunk of the RB3, RB4 range. I got two chips for you. You got to throw them on any of these running
42:50backs that we mentioned from these back fields. Who do you want to take?
42:54>> You told me two chips, but since I just talked about Jonathan Brooks, who I will I will make it a point to draft in my
42:59home leagues. Um, I'm going to push that to the side and use two more chips. So, we're going to give a bonus to everyone
43:04listening. [laughter] Love Jonathan Brooks of course, but let's start with Jaylen Warren because Aaron Rodgers did not lead the league in running back
43:12target rate last year because Kenneth Gainwell was that good at earning targets. Aaron Rogers led the league in running back target rate because he
43:20cannot take hits in his age 40 season, which is also why he finished with the quickest time from snap to throw.
43:26Regardless of Mike McCarthy coming in and increasing the place and most likely pace and most likely playing more three wide sets, Aaron Rodgers is who he is in
43:36his final years and he's going to throw to running backs. And who do you think now will get those running back targets
43:42considering Rico Dael wasn't even the passcatching back whenever Chuba Hubard was healthy? It is going to be Jaylen Warren. And that's how we get this
43:50mid-round running back and push him up the board to suddenly be a fourth or fifth round value. So, I think Jaylen
43:55Warren has outs to lead this team in touches, but more importantly, always be viable to flex if we need it in a pinch
44:01because he's the pass catching back from Aaron Rogers in Pittsburgh. And then the second one is ugly. And actually, I'm in
44:08the minority of thinking this and that's okay. I've been in the minority. I've been right and wrong. Totally fine. But I do like getting a discount on Jaori
44:16Crosky Meritt again this year. Last year the ADP got increasingly too high and the passcatching resume is certainly concerning. Just nine catches all of
44:25last year. Uh his highest in cross five seasons I believe it was in college was 13 catches. Not a pass catching back. I
44:32get it. It's something he was reportedly worked on in camp. But whether that's true or not, I don't know. The team even
44:37went out and added Rashad White who probably is the passcatching back. But in terms of leading the team in carries and touches, Crosky Merritt again, you
44:44get a two to four round discount in your home league compared to last year.
44:48Already like that. And he was still a very explosive player. He was 10th in his rate of 10 yard carries last year
44:54finishing between Bejan Robinson and Dererick Henry. If you look at the numbers, it is those two elite players and then Jaka Cross Merritt right there.
45:02I'm I'm not even squinting and suggesting we're going to get more catches because that's how we really unlock the upside of Jakory Cross
45:09Merritt. but in an ambiguous backfield with both players going in similar ranges. I do know a lot of people want Rashad White because the pass catching
45:17resume, but Rashad White's touches have also decreased in every season in Tampa Bay since 2023 because he could not win a committee backfield. I'm still going
45:25to cross my fingers and guess that the player we wanted to draft in the sixth round last year that we can now get in
45:30the 10th round can win a committee backfield. So, I like Jaka Crosky Merritt this year. And it's unfortunate that the Bill hype got as crazy as it
45:39did because again, it's just all relative to his ADP. If Bill had come out of nowhere to the same extent as
45:45like James Robinson, we'd be saying, "Oh man, what a great rookie season he just had."
45:50>> Agree. And that's why I didn't get him in much home leagues because I I fear that's what's going to happen with
45:54Jerian Price this season is that everyone's just going to assume this this rookie that we haven't seen. Thus, we paint uh an infinite ceiling in our
46:02heads. We haven't just seen it yet is going to cause the EDP to skyrocket. But I like discounts. I like discounts a
46:09lot.
46:10>> Cory Cross, Rashad White, one of the single most important camp battles. to try to figure out because again guys, one of these guys, whoever ends up
46:17winning that majority job going to be moving up the ranks in a hurry. I'm with you on Jaylen Warren. My thing has just
46:23been like take one of the Steelers running backs and let's face it, Rico Dattle usually goes a couple rounds after. So, I've been more okay getting
46:28that. I think though the nail on the head, I'm with you 100%. Get running backs attached to just elderly freaking 42-y old quarterbacks because time and
46:37time again, dude, Leonard Fornette was catching 70 passes from Tom Brady at the end of his career. Drew Brees had everything going on with, you know,
46:43Chimera and just the other guys before that and now we're seeing it with Aaron Rogers. Like, man, I run the numbers if
46:49you don't, John. There's got to be just ridiculous target totals coming from any quarterback age 38 plus.
46:55>> And I am back in on uh we're talking about like just running backs in general that we like in this range. I am back on
47:01in on Washington as a whole. It's not just JKR who suddenly discounted. Jaden Daniels as well is one of the bigger
47:08steels. he's going to be drafted after Drake May and Joe Burrow in your league, making Jaden Daniels the the target among those players. Um, also for Terry
47:17McLaren, again, last year without Debo Samuel on the field, he was targeted on 30% of his routes. He put up career
47:23highs in points per game and endzone targets in 2024 from Jane Daniels, assuming everyone's healthy, like these are the players, Washington's offense,
47:30uh, similar to how we discussed about Philly's players whose ADPs are just too low for last year's results that we're going to ignore. The one problem,
47:38potential problem, I think James Connor is going to play somewhere. Why not Washington?
47:44>> That would that would be detrimental.
47:47>> Do you think there's many more running backs out there? I I would love to see Joe Mixon holding up a newspaper. I
47:52don't know if that dude is still alive.
47:53Kareem Hunt is technically still a free agent. He might just be waiting around to see if Kansas City calls him again.
47:59James Connor is like the only veteran who I could definitely see changing teams and just kind of making this a little bit of a ruckus here because we
48:06have a bunch of wide receivers we're worried about. I feel like Connor is the only running back that kind of applause.
48:11>> He's really the only one that comes to mind unless the Eagles would want to trade like Will Shipley, but you're
48:16getting into to that range of players that perhaps have upside and they can also play special teams, but I'm not too
48:23scared of anyone. Speaking of the Eagles, Johnny, who's your favorite late round handcuff, and why is it Tank Bsby or someone else?
48:30>> Uh Tank Bess makes sense. I I just can't imagine a situation where we're ever going to know when to start him in
48:37season long league. So >> pure pure injury contingent handcuff >> that's a lot harder. But uh speaking of injury contingency, there's there's a
48:43lot of good guys this year. Woody Marks is one we just saw. We just saw after their buy, he handled 16 and a half
48:50touches per game. Two postseason contests, 19 touches per game. So although David Montgomery is there, if Dave Montgomery is injured, we already
48:57have the evidence that Woody Marks will be like a low-end RB1 in terms of usage.
49:02So love Woody Marks later on. Jaden Blue, if you just want to bet against Javante Williams having a career year, like it is the kind of age, right, where
49:10I think he's going to be 26 this year where it's not surprising he broke out in two years post serious injury. But
49:16again, we haven't seen those numbers from Javante Williams ever. So maybe it's just not the same case. Jaden Blue has reportedly matured this off
49:23seasonason. We'll see if that's a real thing after, you know, he finally got a chance mid year last year and showed up
49:28to practice with blue Versace cleats and got blisters because they weren't the right cleats to practice in. We'll see if he's actually matured. But I like
49:35Jaden Blue a lot. Uh Ray Davis, >> this is the one guy in that Sorry, John, real quick. Like >> you're good.
49:40>> Phil Mafa, I know Malik Davis actually was the backup during the second half of last season. That's like earlier when I
49:45was starting to go through his deaf choice. I was like, really? We're doing the Jaden Blue thing again. even though Malik Davis had it. But if I do look at
49:52the guys behind Javvante and I try to see like who actually could maybe carve out like maybe not a 1B role but earn a
49:59legit change of pace role like it's definitely Blue with some of the pass catching and explosiveness he brings to the table.
50:05>> Uh I and that's why I like Jaden Blue.
50:07Ray Davis is another one because a lot of times what happens when you're looking at contingency players, a lot of people think just because let's say
50:13Justice Hill for example plays touches when their starter is healthy that means that is the player who takes over. That is not at all the case whatsoever. Uh
50:23that includes Ray Davis. Like Ty Johnson has only gotten double digit touches for Buffalo two times in his career with the
50:28Bills. Ray Davis though the one time in the last two years that James Cook was injured. Ray Davis 20 touches 150 yards
50:35from scrimmage and a touchdown. Like that's the guy who can't get on the field because he is James Cook. So when
50:40James Cook is out, it's not Tai Johnson, the satellite role player. It is Ray Davis who gets all the touches. So I
50:47still like grabbing Ray Davis and stashing him. And then for for the reason I mentioned in regression in the running game in Las Vegas, it does seem
50:54like Mike Washington is also uh Ashton Genty's direct backup. So I'll probably stash Mike Washington in deeper leagues, too. But in season long leagues, recall
51:04like you have to actually look at your roster and be wary that you cannot use these guys for six weeks probably. Like
51:10they just sit there and the way it works out is that the moment you scratch them, that's when they're going to start the
51:16next week. But don't worry about that.
51:18You still have to then put them at the end of your bench because you understand they can win your leagues if they ever
51:22play. And I feel like John, if I am going more zero RB where my first running back is, you know, god forbid a
51:28DeAndre Swift or, you know, in your nightmare, someone like Jadarian Price, that would probably dissuade me from wanting to have guys like Pacheco and
51:35Tank Bigsby and Mike Washington on my bench because I'm going to be needing to potentially tap into these guys sooner rather than later because I don't
51:41actually love my, you know, initial death at the position. So maybe that's when a Kenneth Gamewell or a Woody Mars or a Jonathan Brooks becomes even more
51:47appealing. Whereas, if I do take Saquon Barkley and Ashen Genty out the turn, you know, we got our two running backs.
51:54We're feeling great about it. I'm going to load up on other positions for the majority of the draft, that's probably when I'm more so inclined to take some
51:59of these guys where no, we're not going to get the week-toeek utility of a Woody Marks necessarily, but the best handcuff
52:06upside might be even higher.
52:09Agree. And that's kind of why my draft plan changes not only every year, but really based on the league. I have I
52:16have an idea of where I want to go. Last year I wanted to live in the Jawan Jennings Ricky Pieraw range of wide
52:23receivers for example because I understood like that tier can win your league and a lot of those wide receivers did ultimately break out. Um and this
52:31year like I said it's the third tier of wide receivers I really want to to live in. Not to mention Brock Bowers at the
52:36first second round turn since last year Trey McBride was the value you should have picked over Bowowers because he's going a full round after Bowowers in
52:44your league. this year they're they're neck and neck. Thus, we want Bowowers and we want to fade Trey McBride.
52:50>> So, with that in mind, John, take me to our second to last question here. And that was again, you kind of already
52:54answered this, so you don't have a specific like year-to-year running back strategy you typically lean on, which I think makes sense having a quarterback
53:01more late round strategy. I think that is more easy to apply year-over-year.
53:05So, looking at 2026 as things stand right now, from what you're describing, it sounds like this might be the hero RB
53:12year for you. I believe so. Again, I want to live in the back of the draft with Ashton Genty and Saquon Barkley in
53:18particular, maybe even both of them, and then hammer wide receiver, find out which late round tight end I want the most. Last year, I was only in on Tucker
53:26Craft, Jake Ferguson, and Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard and Kyle Pittz this year. I I think I'm going to live in that range if I miss out on Brock
53:33Bowers and Coloulston Lovelin. Uh so, yeah, I think hero RB is the way I'm going to go, but again, I'm very
53:38open-minded to robust. I just don't think especially in home league because baseball, you've talked about this on past shows, I know you've written about
53:46it, quarterback ADP for everyone just tuning into baseball leagues, has surged to exponential heights this year. Uh record-breaking that the QB2s, like the
53:54QB 20 through 26 are being drafted like, you know, in the 13th round, and by that time, it's only third stringers left.
54:01That's not going to happen in home leagues at all. Home leagues are still going to chase running backs heavily.
54:05And so rather than avoiding that run, I do want to make sure I I sandwich myself in between that run and get at least one
54:11strong one and then start picking apart other positions from there.
54:15>> I do think there's a scenario if you're kind of in the middle of round one or more of a zero approach makes sense. You
54:21know, you get your Amra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, you get Brock Bowers in round two. Maybe you don't love the options in round three. So you just say,
54:28"Hey, I'm going to take these great, you know, wide receivers or even a Josh Allen from there." Then more of a zero
54:32method makes sense. But no, I'm with you, man. Just with more and more of the builds I've been trying to practice,
54:38getting through mocks and best baseball lineups and even some of the reddraft leagues I've gotten in early, I just feel like getting that one running back
54:44to build around and then having the rest of your running back room just to figure out that RB2 spot, John, like that's
54:49kind of where I'm coming from here. I feel like it's the best of both worlds where like it's not obviously I feel
54:54best for my running back room if I'm taking two in the first two rounds, but like exactly what you said and that's I
54:59think a sign of a very smart individual and fantasy analyst, bro. But like it's when a running back question has to
55:05include the other positions because we're not just trying to, you know, singularly pick out like, oh yeah, I think Ashen Genty is gonna have a really
55:11good year. It's can I draft Ashen Genty and get that really good year while not falling behind other positions and building the best overall roster. So
55:18that's kind of where I'm at with your RB. Yes, I think it's good for the RBs, but it's also, man, allowing us to go
55:23after that Brock Bowers potentially and load up on those wide receivers where I'm with you, bro. It almost makes me want to be in auction leagues more than
55:30ever cuz I just want to draft like each of these wide receivers 18 through 25.
55:35>> Like in home leagues, I promise this situation going to rise where everyone's looking at the board of players available and it's the guys we
55:41mentioned, right? RJ Harvey, Tony Paul or Chuba Hubard. But also on the board at that time are Jaylen Herz, our god
55:48inside the five and Mike Evans are god of touchdowns. Like imagine ever drafting that tier of running backs whenever those two winning players are
55:57right there. you're not going to do it if you want to win your league. So, you just have to be very wary and that's why
56:02I'm pretty much making the cut off Kairen Williams and then I'm going to dance around and go from there.
56:07>> And that's why it can be helpful, you know, after you finish a draft or a mock or whatever, like go back and look at
56:12that board and just kind of see where those pockets of players you really like are. I'm with you. Those wide receivers,
56:16man, rounds even kind of four through seven where you should be playing catch-up at running back if you're going more of a zero strategy. Very, very
56:23tough passes there. But John, great stuff. Before you get out of here though, I know you're a man who travels all around the world and especially
56:29America. So, I want you to give the viewers, if not three, at least one or two most underrated vacation spots in
56:36continental America.
56:38>> Three spots in America. And underrated means you're going to hate these answers, by the way. Yeah. Uh, so I'll count down from three to one.
56:46>> Three, New Orleans. I'm a big fan, which is why I've I've grown so fond and proud of the city of Chicago. I'm a big fan
56:55when any stature of life can have what they want, like 75 cent tacos or $8 tacos. Uh New Orleans, as you saw when
57:03you were there for the Super Bowl, Ian, New Orleans is a culture that brings like Texas oil money and uh a poverty
57:12situation together for everyone to have a lifestyle. And New Orleans like squeezes out of you that stature regardless of where you sit in the
57:22economy. So, I love that everyone can just get together and Greg Olsen can be on a run right next to us while we're
57:28drinking at 10:00 a.m. Like, I I love that about cities. So, New Orleans, I think everyone should go to, especially because I'm a big food guy. Uh, some of
57:35the best food in the entire country.
57:36Number two, because again, underrated, so you're going to hate these answers. I think Coler, Wisconsin, or Wisconsin in general around like the Dells is a
57:45beautiful area. Wisconsin, especially in the spring and summer, is extremely green and has a cheap cost of living.
57:53Thus, like, you know, your beers are $2 to $4, right? But the outdoors are, like I said, ecstatic and extremely green and
58:01vibrant and beautiful. Not to mention that that's when it's warm. I understand you want to leave Wisconsin when the winter when it's when it's horrible and
58:08it's dark by 400 pm for six months. But uh I'm going to say Coler Wisconsin because the goth there, but honestly
58:15even Milwaukee is so underrated in the spring and summer. And then finally what I tell everyone is the most underrated city in America and everyone's
58:24disgusted. It is Cleveland, Ohio.
58:27Cleveland, Ohio is one of the best cities in the country. Uh regardless of whether you like food, nightife, staying in, going outdoors, there's rivers
58:37there. There's a giant lake there. The Browns play lakeside. I know you don't know because we don't watch Browns games, but honestly, Cleveland has
58:44everything you would want. I understand in the winter it gets miserable and it is a little it can feel a little bit
58:52lonely because it is a smaller population still but I think the town of Cleveland despite being small for a metropolitan uh is my kind of people and
59:00the kind of person I want to be. So I think Cleveland is an incredible place.
59:05>> You see John, I had to bring you on the show for you to preach the Ohio propaganda because no one's going to
59:09believe me if I try to tell them Cleveland's cool. I am the only person knowingly that says I like Ohio who's
59:15not from Ohio. I love Ohio.
59:17>> Jok Noah somewhere shaking his head, but I'm with you, man. Like, would I want to spend a week in Cleveland? Probably not.
59:22But you can have a hell of a night or two there, guys. Four Street is a lot of fun. Shout out to Cordelia. Amazing
59:28burgers and just food overall there.
59:30Starting to get Apparently the Michelin star people are finally working their way through Ohio. So maybe that'll give us some better national attention going
59:36on there. Yeah, man. Got a casino down there. multiple sports teams varying in how good they are. I get it. But yeah,
59:44>> Florida is the hell space of America.
59:45Like imagine ever wanting to go to Florida over Ohio. No chance. You the propaganda that the public has told me that's wrong. Like do not listen. Ohio's
59:55better than Florida.
59:56>> Bro, I'm with you. We're like nothing is better than actually getting your receipt and being like, "Oh, that did they get everything? Is that
60:02affordable?" Because that's when I went to Milwaukee for the first time. That was my thought, too. It was like, "Oh, I
60:07had a nice meal. I got beer as much as I wanted to and I'm pleased with the receipt.
60:12>> The kind of places that you can pay for the group and not sweat it out. Yeah, >> maybe a little more expensive down there
60:17by the Bay, but New Orleans is still awesome. If you guys do make it down there, make sure you pay your respects
60:22to our GOAT Sigman Bloom and the rest of New Orleans natives. But Johnny Football, fantastic stuff at notJ Dagel on Twitter. I see you still haven't
60:30found a way to get the actual Jay Dagel Twitter handle there. I appreciate holding out. Obviously, you and the entire established run team doing some
60:38sweet stuff, man. Hell yeah.
60:40>> I appreciate it. Thank you. And again, everything's coming out at establish.com right now. I've taken over all the team previews, which will all be posted by
60:47the time training camps open Saturday because it's the time of the year where everyone is tuning back in and listening to this show.
60:56>> We appreciate you guys listening in to this show. If you like the show, please like the show. Make sure you guys go
61:00support all of John's work over at ETR as well. So, thank you guys again.
61:04training camp on the way. We'll be back next week with some wide receiver content, a little bit of tight end DST
61:09stuff after that, and then strictly league wedding hopefully content as we get you guys into August and get you ready. So, appreciate you guys again for
61:17John. I'm Ian. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, take care everybody.