Fantasy Football QB Tiers: Justin Herbert No Matter What?

AJ Brown produced nearly 1,500 yards despite quarterbacks not helping the Eagles offense. Ian Hartitz frames this as evidence of elite talent and suggests the Eagles' schematic improvements and Jaylen Hurts' QB4 ranking indicate last year's floor could be exceeded in 2025.

Ian Hartitz includes Baker Mayfield as a viable late-round QB strategy option, part of what he calls the 'boomer Sooner late round quarterback strategy' alongside Kyler Murray. Mayfield has provided QB1 numbers for stretches in the past and is a proven QB1 provider available late in drafts. Hartitz advocates for pairing quality floor play (like Jared Goff) with upside late-round QBs like Baker, Kyler, and Malik Willis after securing 5–6 RBs/WRs and a quality TE.

Ian Hartitz places Bo Nix in QB tier 13–14, describing him as 'very confounding' with a wide range of outcomes: he could finish QB6 or QB16. Nix's yards per attempt (under 6.5 over two seasons) ranks him alongside Jacobe Brassette, Joe Flacco, Bryce Young, and Cam Ward—'not a great group.' Despite leading the NFL in pass attempts last year, he couldn't clear 4,000 yards. His ADOT is moderate. Hartitz acknowledges Nix's talent (citing his Packers game and playoff win over Josh Allen with a beautiful throw to Marvin Mims) but warns that inconsistency and stats suggest caution. Nix's deep ball accuracy has been inconsistent; the Broncos rank second-worst in the NFL at 17.9% catch rate on passes thrown 30+ yards downfield over the past two years (only the Giants were worse). Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims 'just cannot find the chemistry.' Jaylen Waddle's addition to Denver should theoretically help Nix's deep ball game, but Hartitz expresses skepticism about Waddle's durability: 'Ankle wasn't great. Fourth career ankle foot surgery.'

Brock Purdy is ranked QB10 in Ian Hartitz's rankings. Over his first four years in the league, he has posted QB11, QB7, QB13, and most recently QB4 in fantasy points per game, showing a strong finish to last season. Despite concerns about the 49ers' offensive weapons (Debo Samuel, Trent Williams, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle all dealing with injuries or availability issues), Purdy's efficiency in the system—ranked number one in the Super Bowl era in yards per attempt, passer rating, and pass success rate—makes him a value play. Hartitz argues that even if Purdy is a system QB, it's the best and most efficient system ever deployed, and fantasy scoring doesn't reward style points, making the discount in ADP attractive.

Caleb Williams finished 2024 as QB7 in fantasy PPG and is Hartitz's most-drafted QB on Underdog Fantasy. Despite sub-60% completion rate, Williams posted QB7 numbers and made a massive year-one-to-year-two improvement in pressure-to-sack ratio (worst in 2024 at only Will Levis worse, improved to third in 2025). Hartitz emphasizes Williams' elite athleticism (top-five fastest ball carrier speeds, top-five throw velocity) and projects him as an MVP-tier candidate if he improves completion accuracy. Currently QB11 on ESPN, QB8 on Sleeper. Hartitz ranks him QB8 overall in tier three with sky-high ceiling upside.

Dak Prescott is ranked QB11 overall in tier three (sky-high ceiling tier) and is described as the NFC's version of Joe Burrow, with the Cowboys potentially being a top-two scoring offense in the NFL. Prescott posted 18.9 fantasy points per game (QB9) last season. While he has rushing ability (6.8-10.4 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons), he is more aligned with Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff on the rushing QB spectrum than with Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, or Drake Maye. At 33 years old and with the Cowboys potentially being run-heavy, Hartitz places him at the bottom of his tier alongside Joe Burrow, though acknowledging the gap between them may be too wide.

DeVonta Smith is putting up good numbers alongside AJ Brown in the Eagles offense. Paired with Jaylen Hurts' QB4 ranking and schematic improvements, Smith benefits from the same upside narrative as the Eagles' passing game.

Drake May is QB6 overall; Hartitz calls his 2024 season 'absolutely fantastic' and notes he led the league in EPA per drop-back, completion percentage over expected, explosive pass rate, yards per attempt, QBR, and pass rating. May benefited from a light regular-season schedule (opposite of a brutal playoff gauntlet vs. Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Seahawks—all top-nine scoring defenses). For 2025, Hartitz expects May won't repeat 8.9 yards per attempt but projects significant volume upside from Patriots' drop-back rate over expected (+3%, fifth-highest in league) and new weapons (AJ Brown, Romeo Doubs); McDaniels' system is complicated but May is in year two, and Hartitz wants close, high-scoring games to maximize fantasy upside.

Ian Hartitz ranks Jaylen Hurts QB4, calling him the most controversial in the tier but defending the ranking. Hurts finished QB7 in fantasy points per game at 18.7 (first career season under 20) despite offensive decline. The Eagles weaponize the tush push more than any other offense, generating 93 fantasy points from one-yard line rushes over two seasons (Josh Allen second at 72; no other QB above 30). Despite using tush push on 89% of one-yard plays, Eagles had tied for 18th most such attempts in 2024 (vs. tied for second most in prior years), suggesting touchdown regression from volume loss rather than play ineffectiveness. Hartitz believes last year represents a floor given offensive weapons (AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith) and Hurts' passing ability, positioning him as a better early-round value than ADP suggests.

Jalen Hurts is Ian Hartitz's QB4 overall and is viewed as one of the better early-round values at the position relative to ADP; Hurts is expected to benefit from schematic improvements and additional weapons (Dantavian Wixs, Maris Brown, Eli Sters), with last year's performance framed as a floor rather than a ceiling.

Ian Hartitz names Jared Goff as his late-round QB of 2026, going outside the top 150 picks on ESPN and outside the top 120 on Sleeper—5.5 rounds later than Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott despite similar archetype. Goff has three straight seasons with at least 4,500 passing yards; only Sam Darnold has matched that back-to-back in the last two years, while the rest of the NFL has six combined 4,500-yard seasons, highlighting Goff's consistency. Stafford and Goff are tied for the fifth-most top-five weekly fantasy finishes over the past two seasons. Hartitz loves Goff at his price and believes he can provide a strong floor with underrated ceiling. Schedule concern: Lions face Chicago in Week 17 (outdoor/cold game), so will need backup for championship week, but should help reach playoffs.

Ian Hartitz ranks Jaden Daniels QB3, higher than typical ADP, citing rookie season averaging 20+ fantasy points per game (only Cam Newton, Justin Herbert, and RG3 achieved this in NFL history). Despite injury concerns (knee week 2, hamstring week 7, dislocated elbow week 9), he averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game in first four weeks (QB7 pace) and remains a high-volume rushing threat capable of fantasy stardom even as an average real-life passer. Hartitz acknowledges injury risk and uniform continuity concern (same team as RG3 bust) but maintains QB3 projection based on rushing floor study showing 77+ carries per season typical for elite fantasy QBs.

Ian Hartitz ranks Joe Burrow QB5 overall. When healthy, he has elite upside (averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 2024), but injury history is a major concern—he played through a calf issue in 2023 before being knocked out, and missed time in 2024 until Thanksgiving. Hartitz notes that when Burrow is forced to work at 80-90% of himself, production is rough, and he struggles to offer 25+ fantasy points per game upside compared to dual-threat QBs in traditional four-point passing TD leagues; he'd rank higher in five or six-point passing TD leagues.

Context for Malik Willis's 2024 role: Willis stepped in for Jordan Love in 2024 with heavy RPO and play-action scheme under Matt LaFleur. 2025 shows evolution: training wheels off, average target depth increased significantly, indicating expanded passing role for Willis. Love's injury/absence in 2024 created opportunity for Willis to develop.

Ian Hartitz ranks Josh Allen QB1, the undisputed king of fantasy football and all-time leader in fantasy points per game in the Super Bowl era. Allen has finished as QB1 or QB2 for six consecutive years since 2020. Hartitz quantifies Allen's elite playoff hit rate: 50% of ESPN rosters with Allen made playoffs in 2020, 49% in 2021, 59% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 58% in 2024, and 58% in 2025—significantly beating the 40% baseline for a neutral player in 10-team leagues. Hartitz views round 3 ADP as justifiable despite depth at QB later, comparing Allen to the Family Guy boat meme: 'We know who Josh Allen is. He's the boat guys.'

Ian Hartitz ranks Justin Herbert QB7 and is notably higher on him than the rest of the industry. Herbert has a 5,000-yard passing season on his resume and in his first couple years averaged north of 22 fantasy points per game, finishing QB4–QB5, which would rival top-one-overall finishes in today's landscape. Career-best 498 rushing yards last year. New coaching hire Mike McDaniel (from Shanahan family tree) is a major catalyst; Herbert is arguably the most talented QB to enter this system in recent years, compared favorably to Matthew Stafford's improvement over Jared Goff in the McVay system. Offensive line (Rashan Slater) returning healthy. Early ESPN ADP at pick 123.7 (QB15) is a major value opportunity. Hartitz states: "I will go after that every single draft that I get a chance to." Chargers receiving corps includes Quentin Johnston, Trey Harris, and SEC-leading receiver Brennan Thompson. Hartitz is "all in" on the Chargers and believes Herbert could be atop the MVP leaderboard in the 2025 regular season.

Ian Hartitz places Kyler Murray in the 'Run Forest Run' tier 6 (dual-threat rushing QBs). Currently QB17 across the industry, Hartitz expects the biggest week-1 rank bump of any QB, potentially top-12 by week 1. Among QBs with 100+ rush attempts over the past decade, 26 of 28 posted top-12 fantasy points per game, underscoring the fantasy value of dual-threat QBs like Murray. Hartitz has him higher than consensus and loves the late-round value at QB17 price. However, a significant concern is Murray's poor 2024 performance and head coach Kevin O'Connell's potential hot seat with JJ McCarthy waiting in the wings, creating bench risk—higher chance of benching than most QBs discussed. Still viable as a round-13 late-round strategy.

Ian Hartitz ranks Lamar Jackson QB2 despite 2024 decline due to week 4 hamstring and late-season lower back injuries. Hartitz quantifies the injury impact using NextGen Stats ball carrier speed: weeks 1-4 averaged over 15 mph per touch versus post-injury under 12 mph, explaining the performance drop. Hartitz emphasizes Lamar is responsible for two of the six greatest fantasy QB seasons ever and remains one of few QBs capable of 4,000+ passing yards and ~800 rushing yards. New OC Dicklin Doyle may help. Hartitz cautious on dynasty given age 32-33 outlook but maintains QB2 status for 2025.

Ian Hartitz places Malik Willis in the 'Run Forest Run' tier 6 (dual-threat rushing QBs), going alongside WRs/RBs like Cooper Cup, Jawan Jennings, and Brilan Allen in drafts—never-start bench players—yet could provide QB1 upside (albeit 'ugly variety'). Among QBs with 100+ rush attempts over the past decade, 26 of 28 posted top-12 fantasy points per game. Hartitz highlights improved passing in 2025 with Green Bay: training wheels off, average target depth increased significantly, moving away from the heavy RPO/play-action scheme in 2024. Willis is a viable late-round dual-threat strategy paired with floor play like Jared Goff.

Matthew Stafford finished as QB3 last season and is available as a mid-tier QB2 on certain websites, representing value relative to his recent performance; Ian Hartitz ranks him QB15. Stafford and Jared Goff are tied for the fifth-most top-five weekly fantasy finishes over the past two seasons, comparable to Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Caleb Williams. Touchdown regression is a concern given his 7%+ rate, but better offenses typically see smaller drop-offs, and the Rams are Vegas's fourth-ranked implied offense for 2026.

Ian Hartitz ranks Patrick Mahomes as QB13, a dramatic downgrade from his historical elite status. While Mahomes averaged north of 20 fantasy points per game in 2025 (his first time since 2022), nearly all of that production came from rushing rather than passing. His passing fantasy points per game remained flat at 15 PPG from 2023–2025, but his rushing production spiked from 2.4 to 2.7 to 5.2 PPG—a career-high that Hartitz does not expect to sustain. Hartitz cites Mahomes' torn ACL and advancing age as reasons to expect regression in rushing production. He also expresses skepticism that Eric Benemy's return as offensive coordinator will significantly improve the Chiefs' stale passing game, noting the offense remains a concern given aging Travis Kelce, Rasheed Rice's knee injury and limited route tree, Xavier Worley's injury history, and Taekquin Thornton as the primary deep threat. Despite Mahomes' elite talent, Hartitz expresses deep concern about fading him at his lowest price ever, comparing this fade to his 2024 Lamar Jackson fade, which he calls 'a horrible idea' that 'terrified' him—yet he still believes the fade is justified given the offensive context.

Romeo Doubs is described by Ian Hartitz as 'a damn good wide receiver two' for the Patriots alongside AJ Brown; Doubs is in his second year in Josh McDaniels' system and is cited as part of the offensive upgrades supporting Drake May's 2025 volume upside.

Trevor Lawrence was QB1 in weeks 10–18 of 2024 with 23 fantasy PPG, though Hartitz notes this was boosted by nine rushing touchdowns and a soft schedule (Colts twice, Titans twice, Cardinals, Jets). At 26 years old, Lawrence is a dual-threat QB capable of 400+ rushing yards and 4,000+ passing yards. Despite Jaguars pass catchers leading NFL in drops since his arrival, Hartitz advocates for late-round QB approach given Lawrence's upside is undervalued at QB11 on Sleeper and QB13 on ESPN. Hartitz emphasizes the late-round value opportunity, noting that Lawrence frequently falls to round 14 or 15 in drafts despite his upside, making him an attractive late-round target compared to other QBs taken earlier.