0:00Who is the best player to select in every round in fantasy football right now? Theo Ginger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire. Joined today by former baseball mania overall champion
0:11Justin Herszig. Justin, you're like one of the best ball experts out in the space. Uh do awesome work over at Establish the Run. We We're going to go through every single round here. We're gonna I mean, and you can kind of take
0:22it how you want. I didn't really give Justin any direction on this one. So it could be like the best structural pick.
0:28It could be the highest ceiling pick. However you want to take it, Justin. But Justin is going to share his favorite
0:34player in every round. Right now, we're going to be looking at underdog ADP. I'm also going to share a couple players
0:40that I really like. Why don't we start out with round one, who is the best value inside of round one. Yeah. And so,
0:47obviously, like, love Gibbs, love Bejon. But if we're talking from like a pure value, who's the player that I'm ending up with the most on, it's Justin
0:54Jefferson. And it's that back half of the first round. And for me, it's just I'm willing to buy into that. This is
1:00Kevin Oonnell. Kevin Oonnell has had success with just about every other QB except for JJ McCarthy. JJ McCarthy is the outlier. And so, if you look at Justin Jefferson, you've got he averaged 99 yards with Cousins, 95 yards with
1:12Wentz, 90 yards per game with Darnold. I believe that Kyler Murray has the ability to actually support an elite wide receiver. We've seen it previously in his career. And when you combine that with Kevin Oonnell, I think Justin Jefferson from a pure talent-wise, he's
1:24just a tier above the rest. and we should still be treating him like that true alpha. I love it. And we heard Justin Jefferson
1:29this week. He said he's going to remind everybody that he's the best wide receiver in the league. I cheated. I put him as my second rounder because I have
1:36been drafting him. You know, you get access to Justin Jefferson sometimes. I mean, you know this more than anybody. You're drafting high volume in multiple
1:43formats, but you get access to Justin Jefferson in the beginning of the second round. Sometimes he falls. And that's like an auto click for me, not only in baseball, but also in reddraft. For me, I kind of went in the same direction as
1:53you except with a different wide receiver when I'm sort of stuck in the middle of the first round towards like the 108. For me, it's Aman Ross St. Brown where it's just the incredible consistency. He's had three straight
2:06four straight years with 106 catches or more. Last year, we had 1,400 uh receiving yards. We had that 1500 uh season in 2023. We know he's going to get a ton of end zone targets. Always towards the the league leaders and end
2:19zone targets. three straight years with at least 10 touchdown catches and I think it's just a fantastic offense that I don't have any questions about. I think Detroit could lead the NFL in scoring. So, sort of with you on that
2:30and then I'll jump the gun here before you get to your second rounder. My second rounder was Justin Jefferson. Uh Justin so eloquently made the case for him. It's it doesn't really need much saying. And then another sort of cheat
2:42guy, Chase Brown, where Chase Brown is such a great structural pick. I also get access to a great offense. And with
2:49Chase Brown, I've seen it now for two two years in a row. Elite usage at the running back position. How about for
2:55you? Who's your favorite second round value right now? Yeah. And I'm specifically looking at like I went last night, I looked through
3:01all of my ownership percentages and who I'm drafting the most of. And so I want to make this as, you know, a real authentic as possible. And so for me,
3:07that's Derrick Henry. And I believe that he has as much upside as any other running back in that area. But his floor
3:13and his medium projection is so much better than the rest. Like you look at the other guys going around him. Yes, Chase Brown amazing role, but like does
3:21he have the talent? Kenneth Walker has the talent. Do we know he has the role? If you look at Ham with the offense, you
3:26look at some of the others. Genty now with the injury. Like for Derrick Henry, we know he's getting the volume. We know
3:32that he's on a highowered offense. I think the Ravens have a 10 and a half win total. And the only question is, is
3:37he going to decline as he gets older in age? Well, you know what? Last year still had 5.2 yards per carry at age 31.
3:44at 29, he had a yard per carry less. If we look at just from a yards after contact, that actually increased last
3:50year. Like there's, you know, there were macro issues with the offense last year that maybe kind of say, hey, here's some
3:56larger issues. But if we're going against the if we're going with the market, if we're seeing what the Ravens are going to be doing this year, if
4:02we're looking at the new offensive coordinator, I believe that Derrick Henry has the ability to really, hey, have those weekly, we're breaking the
4:08game type structures. And if you, you know, just from a yards, from a touchdown, from a pure projection, I think he's just kind of the best safe with a decent upside in that second round. Does your enthusiasm for Henry also
4:21extend to managed leagues, Justin? I know a lot of your exposure is baseball, but uh managed obviously things change a little bit. Uh Henry's sort of in that that clump of running backs, but he goes towards the end of that tier. We've seen
4:35Derrick Henry in FFPC main events go at like the 301, the 302, and we're seeing him going like behind Omar and Hampton and some of these quote unquote breakout
4:46type running backs. Are you also, if you were in a let's say an FFPC main event or or a F or NFC prime time, would you
4:53also be sort of clicking that button with enthusiasm when it comes to Derrick Henry? Yeah, I still think so. I mean, we want
5:00running backs that are on strong offenses and that are going to have a high workload. That's exactly what Dererick Henry is. Now, the knock in him
5:06is he's not catching as many passes as some of the others, but you know what? He hasn't done that his entire career and he's still been able to absolutely
5:13blow P, you know, surpass his value each year. So, yeah, he has that crazy upside we want in baseball, but also just because of the role and the strength of that offense, he's going to have such
5:24great value in reaff. How about your third round target, your favorite player, the best value in round three? All right, this one comes with more risk but ridiculous upside. I'm
5:35going to go with Jeremiah Love. When we were, you know, earlier before this injury, he was still going in that early
5:40third. Now, you can likely get him late third, sometimes even in that early fourth. But this is a number three overall pick. This is PFF's number six
5:47prospect grade. And there's a lot of JR, you know, Jir Gibs comp there. For me, I just think that we are, you know, taking
5:55maybe it's the algier, maybe it's the injury aspect, but this is a Cardinals team that is going to want to show that,
6:01hey, they justifi they're justified in making that pick at third overall. And so, I think the second half of the season, I think Jeremiah level will start slow, especially with this injury and you have the algier, but given that
6:12second half, I think he's going to have an absolutely huge year and they're going to have no issues. They're already giving him what 16 15 touches in a
6:19pregame in a preseason game to get him hurt him regular season when they're out of the playoffs and they're just kind of showing off what they have. I think he
6:25can have 25 touches a game and have one of the highest projections on a weekly basis. Yeah. And we've talked about it and if
6:31you start doing the mental exercise, who's going to be a first round pick in 2027 and I asked you for 10 guys,
6:36Justin, and if I asked 10 other smart fantasy analysts, who's going to be in the first round? Everybody would sort of
6:41say Jeremiah Love, how does he get there? He doesn't get there by being shut down in the second half of the season or having some season where he's
6:48getting conceding everything to Tyler Algier. I think it's a little bit ridiculous. Love that you brought up the preseason usage cuz I think that's been
6:55sort of the narrative that if they're bad, they're not going to use him down the stretch. And I think it's sort of on the contrary. It's sort of establishing
7:01Love as their offensive focal point would be what what they should do. I I sort of cheated on this one. I Chris Ave
7:08who's routinely going like at the 25th overall pick on underdog but you do get him technically in round three. I think
7:14he's a fantastic value especially with Jordan Tyson maybe not playing until like week nine. I think's role is so sound and I think structurally a lot of the teams that I've been drafting running back running back and then I
7:27follow up with like Chris Ave. I feel like that's a really strong start for me. I think he could has top five wide receiver upside. How about in round four
7:35for you, Justin? Round four, I'm going to stick with Ohio State wide receiver and I'm going to go to Garrett Wilson. Um, if we look at what he's I think people just kind of forget either the talent or the role
7:46because of last year's injury, we've seen just a larger macro aspect where people are just fading the Jets, the Steelers, the Browns, the bad offenses. But I think Garrett Wilson has the level of talent and volume that he surpasses
7:59that concern. uh weeks one to five last year he averaged 9.6 targets per game 19 fantasy points per game wide receiver one pace before the actual before that injury and if we look at his kind of
8:12nextgen stats he was leading the way from an efficiency in many of those categories now when we look at this year
8:18we need to take into account like yes they drafted first round Kenyan Sadi they drafted Omar Cooper Jr. How has the
8:24offseason gone for them? Like this is Garrett Wilson is going to be the number one pass catching option and I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up leading the
8:31league in targets. Love I I love that one. I drafted Garrett Wilson uh recently in a in a $350 entry FFPC league. I've sort of made the same argument where you go back even to last year. He was so good out
8:45like right out the jump. If we look at the first month of last season, he was trending towards maybe his best usage
8:50season ever. Now, I think that New York has sort of stabilized that offensive line. Gino Smith is going to also provide a little bit of stability, uh, at least in terms of like normal quarterback production. You saw last year sort of the the Justin Fields
9:03experience where there was like no passing volume whatsoever. Uh, now you're going to have a team that's a balanced team that and Wilson really is the one that I think they're going to lean on. Then you also consider that
9:14like Omar Cooper has been slow out the gate, so like the target competition is really minimal. 170 targets could be there. I I think that this is a terrific round and for me Wilson I think is a
9:26great answer. I also think that Jaylen Wadd is a really fun answer. And then the wide receiver that I'll give credit
9:32to uh Jack Miller who you work with. Jack brought up the slot usage for Tedoa McMillan and he's a player that I had to bring up in my rankings. He's got the alpha profile top 10 draft capital last
9:45year. had 70 catches, seven touchdowns, and over a thousand receiving yards on sort of a bad Carolina team. If this slot usage is real, then I think McMillan could end up being a fantastic value with spike week ability and sort
10:00of the offensive focal point narrative you talked about with Jeremiah Love, but with Carolina. So, McMillan's one that I've I've had to play catch-up with recently. want to get your thoughts on him, but also just sort of like the name
10:12that stares you right in the face when you're in the fourth round of best baseballs right now, especially underdog. And then also, this is sort of staring FFPC managers in the face and I'm sure a lot of home league managers,
10:24everybody's pushing quarterback down and Josh Allen is just staring at me in round four in a baseball draft. Like, how much exposure do you have to Josh Allen this year? And do you think it's a
10:36you're you're gaining or sort of losing an edge when you embrace QB1 overall in these sort of builds?
10:42Yeah, so starting off with Hero McMillan, I agree with that preseason usage and playing in that slot. I do think this has the ability to kind of
10:48elevate him. I would not be surprised if we end up taking him as a one-two pick next year. And those are the type of
10:54players that, hey, in that sophomore year, the ascension could just be the focal part of that, you know, Panthers offense. Also, Panthers play in the NFC South, you get a lot of dome games, you get a lot of warm weather games, you get
11:05a lot of bad defenses with the Saints, the Falcons, and the Bucks. So, like, yeah, I mean, as much of their offenses
11:11can support it, the Panthers are at least going to be trying to get into some shootouts. So, I like that. As for Josh Allen, from a basketball
11:17perspective, there are just too many other quarterbacks that I like later in draft that I can end up going with a 3QB
11:24team. The data suggests that 3QB is stronger, especially when you're stacking it for these playoff structures. And so when you take Josh
11:31Allen, you're either then using up too much draft capital at the position if you're still going 3QB or you're limiting yourself to two, which now
11:37leads to a kind of uh it hurts you get for the playoffs. The second there is if you're going to talk about reddraft, I
11:43actually think Josh Allen is a better focus there. You know, when you know that, hey, I have this one player that I need to start each year. Josh Allen
11:49gives you an amazing median and ceiling projection that you're just not going to get it you know from many other players at that position. It's just not as
11:56important in baseball because your floor and median is um you know is uh it's neglected. I mean it doesn't doesn't matter as much when you have three QBs and you can just kind of piece meal them together.
12:08It's a really really good point. I think also in reddraft Josh Allen, even though it feels like sort of the square thing
12:13to do where I draft Josh Allen and then there's a few rounds gap between QB2 and maybe even more rounds gap between like QB3 or QB4. I avoid any chance of like a
12:24a pitfall uh any chance of sort of like drafting like a bust at cost where the Josh Allen as long as he stays healthy is going to be a top three scorer at the quarterback position. He's just so
12:35locked in. You brought up stacking and that's really not the the purpose of this show, but one strategy that I always enjoy talking about with elite baseball minds like yourself is the notion of stack cuffing backfields. And
12:50I remember years ago, I think it was Mike Leone talked about this a little bit with me and I've talked to Jack
12:55about this as well. Sort of another ETR guy that I think is super sharp. Uh, as well as a couple of high stakes guys. I
13:01know uh Billy Musio and Dave Hubard used to do this a lot in like the high stakes streets. really successful guys there.
13:07But the idea of taking two running backs on the exact same team, sort of leaning into potential fragility at overall running backs, but having sort of locking down a back field. Is that
13:19something you're doing with your builds or is it something that you've kind of gotten away from or sort of open-minded to it sometimes? Yeah, so we at ETR did some great research on this and I think it was back in about 20 2021. If you Google should
13:34you handcuff your RB and establish the run you'll see the article pop up and the results were that there were you
13:40know well first we had to test does it actually increase like your expected value from a pointswise on your team and
13:46then we also had to test like is there a uniqueness angle that you are gaining um because the field may not be doing it
13:53and such and so the article goes really in depth but the highle TLDDR takeaway is ambiguous backfields it makes sense to take multiple backs in those back fields now why is one is you're making an overall bet that that running game
14:06that that team is solid. And so if the offensive line stays healthy, if the coaching staff is able to kind of build
14:12out an efficient run game, no matter who's back there, all the running backs kind of, you know, prosper, benefit together. Uh two is from a structure- wise, from a schematics, maybe that team likes to use workh horses. Workh horses
14:24are great for draft, I mean for basketball, for fantasy football. And so if we know that team wants to use a
14:30workhorse, whether we're right and wrong on one of the two, but one ends up pretty successful, maybe there's an injury, now we're more likely to see that backup move also into a workhorse versus like, hey, this is just a Shawn
14:42Payeyton three-headed backfield and we're spreading it out. And then the third part is, okay, now when we get to the actual fantasy playoffs here, well, what happens when, you know, hey, we have an injury or something. If you have
14:54a three-headed backfield that condenses down to two, that's highly valuable. both, you know, can kind of win together.
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15:57And so the great example was 2023. You've got Raheem Moster, Devon Achan, and Jeff Wilson at the beginning of the season for that Dolphins with um Mike McDaniel. We don't know really what's going on. I think all of them were
16:09around double digit um double double round double digit round uh draft picks.
16:14Then Jeff Wilson gets hurt and Mike McDaniel great offense. a Shannon's outperforming. Moer still is a very fast downhill runner and they both become two of the highest advance rate pieces for
16:26that season. So when you can kind of find the ambiguous ones, you can make a bet this year that could be maybe you go
16:32Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. And for that same logic, hey, we're betting on Kevin Oonnell, we're betting on that offense. Maybe they have kind of they
16:39split. Here's a good game for Mason. Here's a good game for Aaron Jones. Um and it can still work out. Now, the one
16:45time we don't want to do it that we research showed is when you are actually getting into, hey, I'm drafting Gibbs.
16:51Do I take PCA? Um, I'm drafting Bejian Robinson. Do I grab Brian Robinson? Because you're spending so much draft capital at the top of the draft and that elite guy. It's not worth it in baseball
17:02um to really be kind of handcuffing in the more traditional sense. Unbelievable answer. How about New England with Raandre and Trayvon where they've sort of converged where you'd be dumping like maybe let's call it a sixth
17:16round pick and a seventh round pick if that Justin once in a while it's like a fifth and a sixth. Uh would that be a
17:21little too much draft capital or is that sort of the sweet spot for what could be a top five scoring offense again and two
17:28players where we sort of pulling our head out hair out about where to draft them and who's going to get the usage on
17:33a weekly basis. Yeah, the comp there of when we were doing this research and think about it way back when is Alvin
17:38Kamar and Mark Ingram where both of those were going and I think Kamar was kind of sometimes a firstrounder and then Ingram was still going like seventh or eighth or maybe you had like you know something around there but they actually
17:51were able to show that hey there were games that both of them were top 10 running backs and they both across the season had a lot of success. So, this
17:58isn't to say that it can't work with the Raandre and the Travon, but the way that I think about that offense, the way that I think about kind of the ceiling scenarios there, I think it's a little too rich for my blood.
18:09I'll go with maybe the Pittsburgh backfield, I think that's a little one. It's a little less draft capital, but the Jaylen Warren, Rico Dattle, we know that Aaron Rodgers is able, you know, loves to feed his running backs. We know
18:21that, hey, even last year, both the Gainwell and Warren, you know, were pretty solid picks. So, I think that's one where their cost is a little cheaper and I could see it working out. The Tvon Raandre is probably just a little too
18:32rich for my blood. Yeah, awesome answer. How about uh fifth round? Who's your favorite target, the best value in round five? Okay, I'm going to cheat a little now. I'm going to go with because I've been getting mostly him in round five, but
18:43DeAndre Swift. That's a great answer. Great answer for that. Kyle Manongi injury was still very heavy on him. He had careers highs
18:50in year one under Ben Johnson. Um he let's see he still showed you know upside that you don't normally think of
18:57with DeAndre Swift where he had five games of 20 plus half PPPR points. Um I still want to get a lot of pieces of this offense and I think that DeAndre Swift is just kind of you know before
19:09this middle guy injury was just kind of getting overlooked. I love the answer. I mean we've we've heard some beat reporters yesterday. I think it was uh Courtney Cronin of ESPN was saying that there's people
19:21internally saying that Swift would had the best training camp of any skill position player on Chicago so far. He's sort of like this boring pick structurally but could give you low-end RB1 production and like you said was
19:33going inside of round five for a while. I think as we get to the end of the summer, probably more likely going to be
19:38like a late fourthrounder because when you look at sort of the running backs surrounding him, there's a lot of question marks with guys like David Montgomery with Bashel Tutin, even with like Cam Scataboo, uh, with the injury
19:50reagravation. On the flip side, you've got Manongi with the knee, the hyperextension knee, and Swift's like role as a receiver, I think, has a little more room to run this year in Chicago. And we know he's been very consistently good. And we know Ben
20:04Johnson's sort of the running back whisperer. I went with Jameson Williams because I'm a sucker for Jameson Williams. And I think the Sam Laaporta
20:11injury has sort of opened up. We could get second half of the year Jameson Williams like right out the jump. And we
20:18know how spike week friendly he is. And I just feel like Jameson is sort of we had a lot more it feels like we had a lot more hype on him last summer, Justin, when we were in August. I remember going on a lot of shows and
20:30people were like Jameson Williams, Jameson Williams. Now he's just sort of sitting there. And maybe it's me being an agist, but I like him more than a lot of those old guy wide receivers. Even
20:40the Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, all those sort of guys, they go right near him. I find myself clicking the button on JO.
20:48Yeah, I like that one. I think uh we've mentally kind of pigeon holed him into just being that field stretcher, but he
20:55disproved us a decent amount last year. Um and I could definitely see another elevation this year. How about sixth round? I'm going to go to the quarterback position now. Uh and this is I think my
21:06highest drafted QB Jaden Daniels. Um whether it's just people, you know, we might be getting this dis like there might be a theme here with these injury discounts, the Garrett Wilson, the Jaden Daniels. Uh but people kind of forget
21:20that rookie year his rushing ability, he was actually pretty solid passer. And now you look at the new coaching staff, they're talking about, hey, we want more under center. More under center leads to
21:31more play action. More play action leads to more efficiency. Also, more scrambles. All positive fantasy goodness. Plus, you've got the addition of diggs. You've got McLaren healthy. I think there's just a, you know, I think
21:42like you can tell yourself a story of why he's a great pick. And also, even if he's like just guesses median outcome, I
21:49think it's still a strong value with where he's drafted. We can get into the whole specifics. I wrote an article about this about how he's actually a
21:56value in baseball which is setting the larger market because no one is fighting over him. Only the McLaren drafter is the only other commander drafted before him. So he falls to wherever McLaren drafter ends up going. And you compare
22:08that to a Dak who you've got the Lamb and the um Pickkins drafters fighting over him. The Caleb where you have the Odun, the Luther Burden, the Swift, the
22:20Lovelin all fighting over him. But because no one's fighting over Jaden Daniels, he just falls and we mentally are like, "Oh, okay. That's where he should go." I I love that answer with Jaden Daniels. I think it's a terrific one. I went with
22:33sort of like another like quote unquote one-off position. Uh Tyler Warren for me in this round where I think if it all
22:38goes well, Tyler Warren could lead all tight ends in catches and targets this year. I think we've also got sort of the
22:45wrinkle that could they embrace a little bit more of that Taesm Hill stuff that we saw coming out of Penn State. We
22:51didn't really see it last year, but sometimes we see year 2 leaps in terms of usage and it's not always what we're
22:58predicting. Like the of course we want more targets, more catches, but could be like, hey, let's let's line them up, see
23:04if we can get a couple of tush push snaps, maybe keep Jonathan Taylor a little bit fresh using Tyler Warren when
23:09we're sort of trying to figure out Seth McGawan versus DJ Giddons. It might actually be just let's get Warren these sort of uh touches. But love your Jaden Daniels take. Thought that was great. You got a sign over your head. Predict
23:21predict Q. What is this? What is this? I know everybody knows your ATR here, but talk about your new venture here,
23:26Justin. Yeah. So, predict Q.Market is the website. You can check it out. Uh, we're trying to help people that are whether it's sports betting, whether it's prediction markets. We'll find you what the best odds are. We're providing you
23:37with tools to actually do your research content to help you kind of, hey, understand what we should be doing here.
23:43And especially people who are heavy sports betterers are in the fantasy sports world like you've heard of prediction markets. They're rather confusing. There's markets, there's limit orders, there's order book, there's liquidity. We're trying to
23:54simplify all that for you and just help you make money in that space. Um, so check it out predict.market or if you
24:00have any interest, just send me a DM. Always happy to chat about that. Yeah, awesome. Definitely want to check that one out. Let's talk about round seven. And I'll say I feel sort of seen because you'd mentioned Dak Prescott
24:12before, but I do like clicking the button on Dak here in round seven. Uh I like Pickkins. Not a whole lot of CD
24:18Lamb, but I do like Pickkins a lot and I feel like I get that correlation with Dak. And then just from a general offense perspective, the Dallas Cowboys
24:26are a threat to lead the NFL in total scoring. We have no question marks about their offensive line. and Dak I think
24:32could put up huge touchdown total numbers, huge yardage total numbers, and I feel like just he's a really solid pick in that range. There's a couple of wide receivers in that range that I think are interesting, but I find myself gravitating gravitating towards Dak with
24:45an 80 80th overall ADP. For me, I'm going to go with, which might be one of the more boring wide receivers this year, which is kind of surprising given the actual player he
24:57is, but I'm going to go with DK Metaf. Last year he had a career low 11.3 A dot which was forced by check down heavy Aaron Rogers. He still though cleared 1.83 yards per route run. I believe this
25:09year you're going to have Pitman's going to play a little more to that line of scrimmage and lower A dot and this allows DK Mechaf to take that more
25:15traditional role that we're used to which is where he can also get that explo those explosive plays. Um I think when a pure projection standpoint this is also just one of those examples where I don't want to touch Pittsburgh. You've
25:26got a bad quarterback. They play slow, all of that. But I mean, like, from a pure raw standpoint, like I just think
25:32DK Mechaf shouldn't be going at his 7480p or where it is.
25:37How about when we go into round eight? All right, let's stay with Pittsburgh, but this time we're going for Rico Duttle. Um, Rico Duttle, you know, back-to-back thousand yard seasons. We
25:50saw the workload potential last year in the two game sample size. And you know, there's also multiple murmurss we've been hearing that Rico Dattle is the number one back in Pittsburgh. And I
26:01don't expect that to mean he's going to be a workhorse or anything, but even just the fact that that's being discussed, it's not surprising to think,
26:08okay, Jaylen Warren just going to continue to play that more complimentary passcatching role. And I talked about it earlier, but running backs and Aaron Rogers offenses and with Pittsburgh last year, yes, I know it's a new coaching staff, but it's still Aaron Rogers
26:19there, like have had success. And so for me, I think that like we are getting we are paying 1B running back price for someone who could be the 1A or even you
26:32know higher workhorse potential especially if there ends up being a Jayla Warren injury.
26:37I think that's a really really good uh answer there. Dattle is certainly one you brought him up in sort of the stack cuffing narrative where Warren and D I
26:44think will both score points this year. Um, for me when we get to this round, for me it's looking at like Trevor
26:50Lawrence because I talked about Dak, but also the ability to correlate with T- Laws there and just the ability to sort
26:56of beat his ADP once again. QB10, which is a a pricier uh number for Trevor Lawrence than we're used to in previous years, but it felt like he took a big step forward over the second half of last season, giving us like QB1 overall
27:10production for a long uh sample size. And I just trust the Liam Cohen offense like you talked about in in this underdog ADP and in best baseball you can do these two three quarterback
27:21builds and I think Trevor Lawrence has really been one of those foundational low QB ones that I've been attacking.
27:27The other player that sort of piggybacking off of your Jefferson take Jordan Addison sitting at 88 overall has been a player that I've been clicking on. I think if Minnesota can return to what we're used to with them
27:39offensively, Addison, while his return is definitely not going to be sort of as dramatic as Justin Jefferson potentially challenging for wide receiver one overall, Addison becoming fantasy viable again in the double-digit rounds in Reed
27:52raft and then here in baseball. 19 touchdown catches over his first two seasons as a pro and people are kind of
27:58leaving him dead and buried this year. Uh so I'm very much into him. How about getting into round nine?
28:05Yeah, very aligned with that Jordan Addison take. I think I have 16% of him. He's my second highest right behind Dow
28:10for that round. For this one, I'm now going to go to the quarterback. And I'm going to go for Matthew Stafford. Led
28:16the NFL in passing yards last year and touchdowns. Only had eight picks. He had four games with four plus passing TDs.
28:22So, this offense is just built for fantasy goodness. And normally, you know, you don't want to take QBs that don't have any rushing upside, but when you're getting in in round nine, when you look at the macro lens of where all these other quarterbacks are going and
28:35his ability to stack, you know, again, basketball talking, but when you have Dvonte, when you have Puka, when Stafford has a big game, his pass catchers are having that good game, too. And if you want to throw on the Terrence Ferguson or the Kobe Parkinson later on,
28:47like it is just a winning success for when Stafford has big games, so do his pass catchers. It's a parlay that makes
28:53it easier and you don't have to get multiple things right when you know that Stafford is going to be, you know, like
28:58throwing those touchdowns. That's where he gets his points. Um, I'm just saying, hey, like we got a discount last year with the injury. It's not that much different now. And he just came off that
29:09MVP season, so give me Stafford, especially when I'm stacking. Yeah, I think that's a really fun quarterback round in general. And then Stafford obviously it's it's sort of like last year. He's just so beat up.
29:21Pretty much him and Jared Goff are both guys that could throw for an exceptional amount of touchdowns and you're getting him for cheap. For me in this round, I gravitate towards the tight ends, the big passcatching tight ends where I
29:33think it's Kyle Pittz and I think it's Harold Fannon Jr. I understand sort of with Pitts, he took this big step forward last year. We have minimal wide
29:40receiver target competition at the wide receiver two spot. Sounds like it's going to be Jan Datson there, sort of a cap target ceiling player. And we also have a history of tight end success in the Stfansky offense. I think Pitts is
29:53set to return value where he's going. Fannon, I wish we would have seen a Shadur Sanders run out because we know
29:59he had a lot of those spike weeks with Sanders. I'm very much into the rookie wide receivers in Cleveland, but I think
30:05having Harold Fannon Jr. surrounded by the two rookie wide receivers a lot early in the year, I think Fannon could end up with still a very good target share in sort of a challenged offense. So, I'm looking at at the tight ends in
30:17in that range. How about we go into what is this now? Uh, round 10. Which way you going in this round, Justin? Sticking with quarterback here. And it's between two QBs that I'm highly
30:28stacking. Either Kyler Murray or Jordan Love. And so in a, you know, one one draft sample, if I've got to choose between the two, I think I'm going with Kyler. And so from the Kyler, he had six
30:40straight QB1 seasons before that rough 2025. He still was averaging around like 37 rushing yards per game. I'm not sure if we quite see that this year, but I think we're still expecting kind of 25
30:52to 30, which is just a solid, hey, helps with that floor from a fantasy production. And I'm still I'm continuing my my bet on Kevin Oonnell. Now, there is some risk here. I don't want to ignore that. If the Vikings are out of
31:06the playoffs by week 16, week 17, the fantasy playoffs, I do think there is legitimate risk that they say, "Hey, let's bench Kyler. Let's put in JJ just to see what we still have in him. They kept g they gave him more pre a longer
31:20preseason leash than I expected with these, you know, kind of subbing in for first snacks. So, it scares me a little,
31:26but you know what? I'm playing that the Vikings are going to be good. Kyler's going to be solid and that he's able to
31:31play for them the entire year. I I really like the take in this round. For me, it was really hard for me to come up
31:37with one particular name. Kenneth Gainwell. It's a little bit of cheating because I think he goes in round nine a lot, but when he's there in round 10, I
31:44think he's a really fun player. Uh we've heard a couple of the I think it was Greg Omen or Almond for the Bucks. Uh
31:50one of the big beat reporters, uh it was sort of a throwaway line by him and I don't know if it was hyperbole, but he
31:55said he wouldn't be surprised if Kenneth Dainwell leads the Bucks in catches this year. I think he's going to be heavily
32:01utilized in the passing game. We know that there is a chance Bucky Irving misses some time because the shoulder was already bothering him before. He missed time last year and he's a slighter back. And we know just how
32:11effective Kenneth Gainwell was last year and how these quarterbacks and offensive coordinators both seem to sort of gravitate towards him. Really good pass blocker, does all the little things. I also like Casey Conpion a ton in that
32:24range. I think that the Browns have really good players in a really ugly situation, but we could potentially hit on multiple ADP values if they're just like the 25th best offense instead of the 32nd best. And I think Casey
32:36Conpsion's an electric talent. And then George KD, George KD sounds like he's going to maybe miss one week. And Justin, I love for reddraft. It sounds like uh we had Jeff Mueller on and KD has said that he is not going to get on
32:49the plane unless he's playing. And we know that the 49ers are leaving one week before their Australia game. So KD is
32:55going to do us a solid. We'll know if we have to scramble and reddraft. But in baseball, KD, I think, has a chance to
33:01have do what he does every single year. And he's sort of going lower than some of the Tucker Crafts, Leaportas, Fannins, Pits, going in a range that I think he's going to potentially return a lot of value. And actually, it's
33:12interesting. He's going right next to dribbling. They're neck and neck in ADP right now uh on underdog. Uh any thoughts on those guys? anything stand out to you? I love all three of them. I think the cherry on top for the gain well is
33:25there's some murmurss that Shawn Tucker may actually not make the team. And if he was to get cut, the question then
33:30becomes is who's getting these goal line reps? And you know who didn't get goal line reps last year? Bucky Irving. And
33:37so maybe if Shan Tucker didn't make the team, that's actually a boost for Kenneth Gainwell um at getting more of that goal line work. So I love that. Love the KC1 for me with the George KD. I wrote an article earlier that he's
33:48kind of my was my highest owned or highest uh the bullish on from a tight end perspective. We were also getting
33:54him in like the 120s. I still think he's a solid value now as we continue to see the health kind of positive reports. And
34:01that'll lead me into my round 11 guy because I think in reddraft leagues if you take KD and you want to have kind of
34:07hey let me grab another tight end for those early couple weeks. Dallas got it. Dallas got it when AJ Brown was not on
34:14the field last year. He had a 26.4% 4% target rate, 2.65 yards per route run.
34:19That's top two among tight ends. That gives him elite usage when AJ Brown wasn't on the field. Now, we're not going to say that that's just going to easy pro, you know, easy just to, hey, play that out for this year. But
34:29especially in the early season when Mai Lemon is still coming off the injury and hasn't fully ingrained himself in the offense when you really just have the
34:35Devonte Smith, I think Dallas Goddard is set up for a great year. But even more so, those first couple games, if you're
34:42missing KD, grab Dallas. I love that one. And and Goddard's been a real target of mine in reddraft as well. Tight end 15 price tag, 11 touchdown catches last year. His situation got
34:54better because of the loss of AJ Brown. Mai Lemon has not been on the field. I know Mai's back now, but the chances of
35:01Mai Lemon being like a a rapidly fast starter out the gate are sort of a little bit considerably lower than if he would have had a full-on training camp. And like you said, Goddard not only had
35:12the touchdown grabs, but a very high target share. The splits have been really solid for him over the years when guys have been out. So, I'm with you. He's really good. Round 11, I've also liked drafting Baker Mayfield. Uh I
35:23think Baker Mayfield in round 11 could pay off in a major way. We all know that he hasn't received the contract. It
35:30feels like you're going to get a little bit of yolo baker where the touchdown numbers might not be 2024 level, but
35:35they could be closer to 2024 than maybe the the ADP is reflecting. And there's chances to correlate him in a in a bunch of ways. I brought up Gainwell, certainly if you have Ibuka, Godwin, and
35:48then there's the later targets where Jill McMillan I think is a really fun uh target in pretty much all formats, but
35:53if you want to go like 18th round, guys like Ted Hurst fall into that range. though and Kate Uton certainly is one of
35:59the last sort of draftable tight ends. So Baker very very easily easily correlated. Your thoughts on round 12.
36:07Now we start getting a little bit murkier sort of in the weeds here. Um but these are very important picks. And
36:13Justin, when we get to these like final six rounds, is there any sort of macrolevel strategy that you think uh or
36:20big mistakes that you see managers starting to make when we get into like the endgame, the final third for best baseball? Yeah. So, for best baseball, I think it really is is just kind of filling out
36:32that roster, but doing it with where you can kind of get the best either, you know, projection or upside and not just
36:39fitting it to, well, I need to finish with a 3683 or a 3573 or whatever that roster construction is. Um, so for me, if I invested heavily at running backs
36:49and I grabbed two running backs in the first three rounds, okay, awesome. Now, I'm going to be looking at to figure out
36:55like how do I get complimentary backs here? Am I looking to make this just a four or five RB team and then I just want somebody who's going to be seeing
37:01the field or did I only grab one early? This is going to be a six running back team and I know I'm going to have the
37:06quantity so let me just be going for upside with these picks. So, it's really just like figuring out how do you tell
37:12how does your team tell a story from a reddraft angle? Obviously, very different. You don't want to be going after these wide receivers that you're, you know, on best ball give you spike week, but in reddraft, when do you
37:23actually feel comfortable starting them? Instead, going for those running backs that, hey, when there's an injury, you know, this player has the projectable volume of putting them in. And that's where my round 12 is a quarterback, but
37:35it's someone that you're going to very know, you're going to know very quickly whether or not he's able to give you that value. And that's Malik Willis just
37:42rushing QB. Is he gonna suck? I don't know. Is he going to have great pass catchers? Well, there's actually been some positive news on Caleb Douglas. We've got Chris Bell coming back. They still like Malik Washington. Um maybe
37:54you have the Dolich. Like maybe this team just isn't as bad from a passing standpoint. If they can even be just
37:59like, as you mentioned with Kansas City, like 25th worst, then you throw on Malik's rushing ability. I think that's one where draft him in that cheap price and from a reddraft standpoint, you can get rid of him. or from a best ball,
38:12he's still going to likely give you spike weeks when he can just throw for one or two touchdowns combined with what he's doing on the ground.
38:18Yeah, I I love that one. I have a ton of Malik Willis and you bring up like the three QB builds. He's like the perfect
38:23number three quarterback in a lot of those builds. Um the rushing upside is immense. I've seen some of these books that have him listed at like 549 and a half rushing yards. That feels like a and I'm not I don't rarely give out like
38:36sort of the prop bets, but if he just starts the entire year, I think he's going to crush that rushing total. The
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39:14entry gets you 50,000. Ian Hardit and I are both competing in this one. So, you can play against me. You can play
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39:40when we get into round 12, I like Woody Marks where I think that there's a little bit of split potential in this
39:47backfield. And with Marks, I'm able to get the passcatching upside. There's certainly the contingent upside if Montgomery were to miss time. But even in the weeks that David Montgomery gets a heavy workload, I think Woody Marks
39:59can give me usable weeks at the running back position due to his pass catching ability and I think he's going to be on
40:04the field a pretty good amount. So, I've sort of played catch-up with him. Uh, let's get into round 13. Any guys sort
40:12of standing out to you? Um, honestly, when we get to this late in drafts, who's round 13, 14, 15, 16, all really
40:19kind of just blends together. And so I'm really just looking at like, okay, who are the players that I, you know, maybe want to be adding that I haven't been
40:25taking as much earlier, I want to double down on. One of those players for me right now is Trey Tucker. We got some a
40:31positive, uh, I'd say, you know, just reading that he leaves from the preseason with Jaylen Naylor actually being out on the field while Trey Tucker getting the healthy scratch. I believe he's wide receiver one in that depth chart. And really when you look, there's
40:44not much around him besides the Brock Bowers and, you know, maybe Michael Mayer. Uh, and now has he done it before? It's a oneame sample size, but we saw last year he had that eight catches, 145 yards, three touchdowns.
40:57This, you know, you know, it's just so late in drafts to be getting what might be a young semi-talented number one wide
41:04receiver. And if you're talking baseball, you have the ability to then late stack him with a um, Mendoza a round or two later. I actually had Trey Tucker written down as well. I think you're spot on with this one. I think a lot of the early off
41:18season were was people sort of gravitating towards Jaylen Naylor. But I think Tucker could end up filling if we trying to look for like a this year's version of if Brock Bowers is sort of filling a JSNesque role but at the tight
41:31end position then maybe we could look back to Clint Kubak in New Orleans and we could see Trey Tucker in sort of a Rasheed Shahed role. I think he could return a lot of value. like you said,
41:42this sort of range, it's harder to predict guys when they're going to be available. It's sort of a little bit more get your guy. So, I'll go with
41:48round 13 and 14 sort of combine here. Tucker's a great name. I'll also throw Jaylen McMillan in there where if there's a chance that Amecha Ibuka has the toes sort of lingering. McMillan, I think, uh, had his own little injuries
42:02early, but he's back. The market's sort of treating him like he's still injured. He's back at training camp. I think he could put up a number of spike weeks.
42:08Uh, I talked about Baker before. or I'm into that Tampa Bay offense. Tai Spears I like a lot. Uh I think that that
42:16Spears can end up being a very useful sort of passcatching back, especially in baseball. Uh Tennessee is a mess. The offensive line's a mess. And we saw sort of some usage in the preseason where Spears is getting a lot of first team
42:31usage and I think his pass catching ability would sort of make sense on a team that's going to need to get the ball out of Cam Ward's hands a lot. And
42:37I'll throw probably a little bit of a swing guy that could go in round 13 or 14, but I think Brentton Strange gives
42:43me a tight end with access to a really good offense and he's sort of beat up a little bit because people gravitate towards the wide receivers. Now we've got Jacobe Meyers who's dealing with a
42:53thumb injury. Could that sort of linger into the regular season? And we saw Strange put up spike weeks last year at
42:59different times of the year, especially beginning of the year with Trevor Lawrence. So I think Strange is an interesting one. Any thoughts on the guys I just talked about, Justin? I like them. I had Jayen McMillan as one
43:10of mine as well. Uh Brandon Thorne uh puts the Bucks as a top five offensive line. Now, there's often fragility with this stuff, but if they can stay healthy, I think that's really strong. If you've been watching the quarterback
43:21show on Netflix, you'll see that Baker had to play through that shoulder injury all last year. And yeah, with the, you
43:27know, Mike Evans goes over to San Francisco. Abuka, we're a little, you know, I'm not sure on the injury. Chris Godwin two years remove now what a year and change removed from that injury before that he was elite but does he
43:39have you know is he really gonna bring that efficiency back I'm not sure so I think there's a lot to like about Jaylen
43:44McMillan I think early on people were a little too bullish on the Ted Hurst and thinking like oh he's going to you know take over Jaylen's role I don't think
43:51that's the case um so yeah I love that pick now ju just for time sake why don't you give us a couple of your final picks and let's go really choice a couple of guys
44:02that you're really into when we get into like round 15, 16, 17, and I think the most important round 18, Justin, where I think a lot of people don't know what to do in this final round. Help him out
44:13with a couple of really strong endgame candidates. Yeah. Um, let's go for I think my highest owned tight end, uh, particularly on drafting is because it's 20 rounds is Michael Mayer. I think that
44:27we are current, you know, when we're in the 20th round, we're often looking at, well, look at this running back who has contingency upside because if Jonathan
44:33Taylor gets hurt, then maybe Giddens or or McGowan end up taking that or if McAffrey gets hurt, there might be a
44:38Kaylin Black or a Jordan James, but you still have to get it right and there's still that injury. With Michael Mayer,
44:43one is he actually might give you usable weeks just as the kind of number two, number three pass catching option in
44:50that offense when Bowowers is healthy. We've seen it, you know, even preseason he had the touchdown, but even last year when you had some Bowers, you had the two of them on the field. I think we can expect that this year with what their wide receiver core looks like. But if
45:01Bowowers goes down, Michael Mayer becomes a top six, seven projected tight end for each week. And like you just can't get that
45:12at any other position. Um, and so and we know with like there's no other competition for him for that backup. Like we have certainty. He's one that I'm often doing three, maybe even four
45:23tight end drafts for best with the 20 rounds. And Michael Mayer loves stacking on there.
45:28Really, really a fun one. Ryan Heath, uh, when I was at Fantasy Points was sort of talking up Michael Mayer for
45:33months and months and months, has been a guy that he's mixed in in a ton of his best balls as well. Is there a like a
45:40final draftable running back? You hear people wide receiver seems to go on forever. Is there like a if you need you
45:46mentioned the structure the structure Justin it seems like you're open-minded in sort of how you build your teams this year. Uh you mentioned the three QB builds but let's say you need to sort of catch up at running back. Is there a
45:59running back you find yourself clicking on maybe in round 16 17 18 more so than others.
46:05Yeah. So like Brian Robinson is probably the one where his ADP is 186 and I just don't understand why. Um, I'm not
46:12expecting him to have the Tyler Algae role, but I'm also not expecting the Falcons just to say like, "Okay, Bejan, we're going to give you literally everything." So, I think Brian Robinson could have some just, hey, games here or
46:22there where he gets a couple touchdowns or some usage. Um, or if Bejan does actually get hurt, it's not a lock, but
46:28I think Brian Robinson actually becomes the a primary back in that offense. And for his price, I think it's really solid. If I want to go even later, last round or so, I'm going to go Kamani Videl. Um, we've t, you know, we've had
46:41the expectation from Mike Mana that they're going to be using all three running backs. He said it in the press conference and this is a player that
46:48when Omarian Hampton was hurt last year, they used him as a workhorse. Even in that playoff game, they still use him
46:53that way. If Omaran Hampton were to get hurt, sure, Katon Mitchell might get a little more uptick, similar to what you'd expect of a Justice Hill or something if Henry went down, but I'm not expecting Katon Mitchell then become
47:05the starting running back. I'd expect it to be by Dell. So, at the very last round, you're getting an explosive offense, strong offensive line, coach that likes to use his running backs as
47:16weapons. And so, you have some weekly upside. And then, if there were an injury, I think Vidal, oh, probably projects as a top 15 running back if Hampton went down.
47:29Um, pulling that up from the hip, but I think that's pro that could be about right. That sounds about right to me. Uh really
47:35really strong stuff today. Before we get you out of here, a couple of questions. I think a lot of people want to know
47:41your interest level in Ashton Genty and at what cost. Now, the time we're recording this, Justin, today it's the information age, so we could get a huge news dump in a couple hours on Genty,
47:53but by the time we're recording this, sort of there's a lack of clarity on the severity of the ankle injury, uh how
47:59long he's going to miss. sort of when we have no information, are you more likely to sort of take shots on him or are you
48:07going to take a step back and sort of what would be a number as of today? And we we are recording this one for the
48:13record. We're recording this on Tuesday the 25th where where is your interest level in him and the and sort of a price
48:20tag you'd be comfortable with Ashen Genty? Yeah. So, for me to dive into this, I need to think through like, okay, how many games are we expecting to miss? Is this going to be a lingering issue? What is it? Is this role going to change at
48:31all? The way I'm thinking about it is well, first off, if you look at Kawoshi, the expectation is that he's about 38%
48:37right now to play week one. And so, you know, you take into account, okay, so 60% he misses week one. What's the
48:43additional chance he misses the next week, you tie it in, I think it's fair to assume he's going to miss about a game and a half as an estimate
48:48projection. Uh these type of injuries, ankles do lead to some kind of downstream efficiency loss. So, we do need to take that into account from our projection. Now, from a game theory aspect, we are playing specifically if we're talking baseball, we're talking
49:02large GBP tournaments. We're going for upside and Ashton Genty all summer has been drafted at that one two turn picks between 11 to 134. And so, the teams that have him are all very similar, but
49:14starting last couple days and going for the next week or two, he's probably going to be closer to that 23. So, when you are taking him, you're also getting
49:21substantial uniqueness. not only a little extra value from where he went before, but also substantial uniqueness in pairing him with the Gibbs, the Robinson, those top three elite wide receivers. So, that's where I'm waiting
49:33like another day or two with hopes that like, you know, we're going to see I don't know, maybe it doesn't even
49:38matter. Maybe I should just be taking a little more now cuz as I've been doing it in the early third, I'm willing to take him. He's been going more in that
49:45midsec and in the midsec I just don't think I'm willing to pull the trigger because you may not actually be getting
49:50that much uniqueness. Um but uh yeah, I think that's what I'm thinking from a game theory aspect is when I know he's
49:56going to go with a unique firstrounder, especially one of those three elite wide receivers, I'm more likely to start taking. Yeah, for me I from a reddraft lens, I dropped him down to about that two, three turn area, and it's sort of a risk
50:07tolerance, but there's so many good options where he's going if you want to be a little bit on the safe side. I get it. But it's just the potential especially in a large scale field like
50:19this one to have a Jir Gibbs Ashton Genty type build. It's sort of hard to pass that up. One one question I ask a lot of guests here and it's a fun one. If you could
50:30know the final stats of any single player in fantasy football this season, who would it be?
50:36Yeah, this is always a fun one. And in past years, I felt like there was a more clear answer where if you learned about
50:43this running back or this wide receiver, then you would know more about like the larger team. You could maybe say the
50:49Randre Trivon one. You could maybe go with like a Brian Thomas because you know the Jags are going to have a strong
50:54offense so he can give you more information the others. Uh, but I'm going to go with a player I talked about earlier and just go with Malik Willis
51:00because if we can know that Malik, like knowing Malik Willis's statline, he could be your just absolute draft every time QB with that rushing upside and boom. If we know that he actually has
51:12some passing success, you can get so much value on all of those pass catchers late in drafts that you're really kind
51:19of making a bet that hey, this is going to elevate the entire offense. I'm now getting some very, very cheap, that's
51:24high value stack. So, I think that's the one for me that gives me the best. You know, if he has either a really strong
51:32year or at least an average passing year, both of those worlds can give us a lot of valuable information.
51:38Awesome stuff today from Justin Herszig. Let everybody know where they can follow you and what you have coming out for the
51:43rest of the summer. Yeah, I appreciate it. Thanks for always, you know, hey, chatting and inviting me to Theo. This is always fun
51:49to be, you know, talk fantasy football, especially when we're like what, two weeks away from the season. We're right there.
51:54You can find me justinherszig on Twitter. Uh that's where I've got all my stuff with ETR, with predict Q, uh anything there. And uh yeah, a oh, one more I'll throw out. ff60.com.
52:06It's a free daily newsletter for fantasy football that just gives you everything that happened the day before in 60 seconds or less. Um check it out. Go subscribe. Uh you can always unsubscribe if you don't like it.
52:17Always uh recommend Justin's work. Really, really sharp guy and receipts to prove it. Uh, we'll see how he does this year in the best maybe maybe first two-time winner. I have one baseball mania left. Really excited about that.
52:29Justin, you got like 50 to go. So, happy drafting to you. Make sure you stick with us here right at Roto Wire on the
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52:43I'm going to be doing a $350 uh NFC online championship with Davis Madak. On Thursday, Dan Williamson and I are going to do an NFC prime time. So, if you're into the live drafts we've been doing,
52:54we are going to cram a bunch of them in here. I have shows dropping every single day. Stick with us here at Rotoire.
53:00We're going to help you crush your leagues this