10 BOLD Predictions for Week 4 of Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
36 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
No date
Published
23
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Brian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersCeeDee LambChase BrownChristian WatsonDaniel JonesDerrick HenryDrake LondonJa'Marr ChaseJacoby BrissettJalen McMillanJeremiyah LoveJonathan TaylorJosh Downs
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
PositiveProjection21:08
Jacob Gibbs projects Brian Thomas Jr. for a season-high 18 PPR points and a touchdown against the Bengals, citing the team's intent to get him the ball and Trevor Lawrence's desire to keep his momentum going. Gibbs uses Jaylen Warren's successful performance against the Bengals last week as a historical benchmark for Thomas Jr.'s potential output.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveRole0:34
Brock Bowers is coming off a smash week as the overall TE1. Jacob Gibbs is preparing a rest-of-season tight end rankings update that will provide a deep dive into the specific role and usage metrics that have driven his recent performance.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection20:32
CeeDee Lamb is expected to receive a high volume of targets in his upcoming matchup, with Jacob Gibbs noting that the Cowboys' high pass rate over expectation supports a big game for him.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveBreakout0:40
Jacob Gibbs views Chase Brown as a top-five fantasy play this week against Jacksonville, projecting 20-24 points. Gibbs notes Brown has averaged 20.6 PPR points in games with 51+ point over/unders since 2024 and remains a high-upside buy as the Bengals' offense continues to look strong.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveProjection15:16
Jacob Gibbs identifies Christian Watson as a player who could have a massive week, ranking him just behind Jalen McMillan in his weekly wide receiver outlook.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection15:53
Jacob Gibbs identifies Daniel Jones as the primary limiting factor for Josh Downs' fantasy ceiling, suggesting that poor quarterback play is the only obstacle preventing a massive 150-yard performance.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveProjection20:50
Jacob Gibbs highlights Derrick Henry as a high-upside option for the week, specifically noting his revenge game narrative against his former team where he could potentially put up 40 points. Gibbs also suggests the upcoming matchup against the Titans could be a game where the team leans on the run, making it a 'Derrick Henry game.'
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection24:05
Jacob Gibbs projects a huge game for Drake London if the Falcons are forced to play from behind, anticipating a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest. London is also used as a statistical benchmark for target volume, with Michael Wilson currently having more 15-target games than him over the last two seasons.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
NegativeUsage19:14
Jacob Gibbs notes that while fantasy managers are focused on Ja'Marr Chase and Parker Washington, this attention may create a favorable environment for a Tee Higgins breakout game. Additionally, Chase serves as a statistical benchmark for target volume, sharing the same frequency of 15-target games as Michael Wilson over the last two seasons.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
PositiveRole27:09
Jacob Gibbs views Jacoby Brissett as the established starter for Arizona, noting that a win in New York would solidify his position and likely delay any team interest in transitioning to Carson Beck.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
PositiveBreakout10:03
Jacob Gibbs ranks Jalen McMillan as his WR12, citing a prime bounceback spot against a Detroit defense that allows the league's highest rate of separation. Gibbs projects 20+ points and potentially a career-best game, advising managers to trade for him before his national TV performance increases his market value.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveUsage6:34
Jeremiah Love has been elevated to the RB11 range in expert consensus rankings. Jacob Gibbs identifies him as a core piece of the Arizona offense alongside Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, advising fantasy managers to start him every week.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveProjection20:12
Jacob Gibbs views Jonathan Taylor as a strong start, noting that as a favorite with a high implied team total of 26 points, the game script favors a productive outing for the running back.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveProjection15:14
Jacob Gibbs ranks Josh Downs as WR10 for the week, projecting 20 points due to a favorable matchup against a Washington secondary that struggles against the slot. Shane Steichen's usage of Downs, specifically his league-high rate of pre-snap motion, is designed to create space against zone coverage. Gibbs notes that while Daniel Jones' play is a potential ceiling-limiting factor, the matchup is otherwise ideal for a massive performance.
Insight pageKendre Miller
PositiveSleeper30:21
Jacob Gibbs identifies Kendre Miller as a sleeper and a potential desperation flex play for fantasy managers, noting that the game environment should be high-scoring.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeUsage14:18
Jacob Gibbs notes that Michael Penix Jr.'s involvement in the Falcons' offense contributes to a high-scoring environment in the Saints-Falcons matchup, as both teams rank in the top five for opponent pass rate over expectation.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveProjection23:39
Michael Wilson is coming off a 17-target game and is ranked as the WR11 for the week. He leads all players in pre-snap motion points and ranks as the WR11 in expected fantasy points. With a favorable matchup against the Giants' low-pressure defense and high catchable target rate allowed, Gibbs projects another monster game with 20+ point potential.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveUsage20:03
Parker Washington is drawing increased defensive attention, including double teams, which is expected to shift target volume toward teammates like Tee Higgins and open up opportunities for others like Bashel Tutin.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeUsage24:04
Puka Nacua is mentioned as a statistical benchmark, with Michael Wilson currently having more 15-target games than him over the last two seasons.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveProjection17:58
Jacob Gibbs expects a big game from Stefon Diggs, ranking him as a top-24 receiver, significantly higher than consensus. Diggs maintains a 30% target per route run rate and benefits from a favorable matchup against the Colts' slot coverage.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveProjection18:46
Jacob Gibbs projects Tee Higgins for a 30-point PPR performance, noting he has been just outside the top 12 in expected fantasy points and is due for a blowup game. Gibbs believes the defensive focus on Ja'Marr Chase and Parker Washington will create a favorable environment for Higgins.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage24:13
Jacob Gibbs recommends Trey McBride as a must-start player in the Arizona offense on a weekly basis. McBride continues to receive high target totals, which coincides with the high volume seen by teammate Michael Wilson.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout30:54
Jacob Gibbs ranks Zay Flowers as his WR7 rest-of-season, citing elite efficiency metrics: targeted on 50% of his routes with over 100 YAC on just 25 routes run. Gibbs projects a top-five finish for Flowers this week against a favorable Titans matchup.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Bold predictions for week four of the 2026 fantasy football season. We're into October. Theo Greager joined every week right here on Rotoire with Jacob Gibbs
0:10of Beyond the Box score. Jacob, we had a nice week last week. You had Trevor Lawrence boosting your guy Bashel Tutin.
0:17Bashel Tutin getting that rushing touchdown. Taw uh t taking one for the team getting his running back the touchdown. I called out Garrett Wilson
0:24having a monster week and he did. I also called out Gino Smith having a very usable quarterback start week and he did
0:31Jets Lions ended up being really good for fantasy football and then the the really good one Brock Bowers tight end overall like clockwork he returns puts
0:40up a smash week. I took a big L on Chase Brown though. I said last week was going to be this huge Chase Brown week. We had
0:48this slow week against Houston. I said everything's lining up for Chase Brown in this game against Pittsburgh. They're going to play great defense and Chase
0:55Brown's going to have two touchdowns. I was completely off. He had his worst game of the season. So, a lot of wins,
1:00but one huge loss, but do we have a bold prediction on Chase Brown this week from you? Yeah, I think Chase Brown's
1:08bouncing back. I think he's one of the best bo in fantasy. The role is pretty much the exact same. And the Bengals
1:13offense looks really good. So, on Beyond the Box score, I just did an episode with Ryan Heath where we reddrafted, like how we would draft a day. And I
1:20picked Chase Brown 14th overall, and Ryan agreed with that. He said, "Basically, we've run really cold where they're scoring their touchdowns from
1:28outside of the 10 yard line. Um, a lot of these looks that would be going to a running back typically just haven't
1:34really been there because the way things have played out through three weeks. Um, I think that that changes. I think Jacksonville has a pretty good defense.
1:41Um, and is obviously Anthony Keanelli, their DC there, is really sharp and is obviously going to be focused on stopping these receivers. And the Jags
1:48have the lowest catchable target rate allowed on first three targets to wide receivers on the year. Um, so I think that this makes sense, just anecdotally,
1:57you could tell a story where this makes sense that we're going to see more emphasis on getting Chase Brown involved in this matchup. And then what really
2:05has me into this um in terms of just projecting this out for fantasy, how likely it is for Brown to have a big
2:10game is that if you look at the games where Brown has played in big projected shootouts by Vegas, this one has a 51 12
2:18point overunder, the highest of the week. Um dating back to 2024, these games have been really really impactful for running backs. I think um inherently
2:29we we feel that we know that. Um, but I did dig into it just to be able to quantify it. Um, running backs in games
2:35that have had an overunder of 51 or or more points have averaged 16.8 PPR points per game. If you're looking at
2:41starting running backs dating back to 2024, that's up from 13.1 in all other games, games with an overunder below 51 points. So, that's a 28% increase to
2:50production. It's a 33% increase to red zone touches per game within that split and a 65% increase to red zone touchdowns per game within that split.
3:01That's Chase Brown, man. That's his bread and butter is getting targets and getting red zone touchdowns. Um, if you look at Brown specifically dating back
3:08to 2024, um, he's had four of these games where the overunder is 51 or more points. He's averaged 20.6 PPR points
3:15per game, which is really high. It's basically CMC and Jir Gibbs that are the only ones higher. Um, so like 16.6 is
3:22the average for Derrick Henry for instance. Um, 18.6 for James Cook. And I told you the league averages about 16 points. It's been nearly 21 PPR points
3:32per game for Brown in these projected shootouts. Um, so I feel really good about him here in this spot against Jacksonville where they're probably
3:40going to try to get him going. Um, I know it's been kind of a slow start, but I think we're going to get a big bounce
3:45back here. I'll say uh top five running back finish for Chase Brown. I was really surprised to see Expert Consensus had him ranked as running back 11 this
3:53week. Um, there's some really good running back plays. Jeremiah Love, for instance, is like pushed up into that range. Um, I think Brown projects about
4:00as good as anybody. I'm going to say top five finish and 20 plus points, 24 points, something like that. Feels good.
4:07>> Yeah, you're making me want to go adjust things. I uh I dropped a podcast on my rest of season rankings, and I did drop
4:12Chase Brown. I think he's somewhere down in that like 18 range, right around 18, but you have him a little higher than I
4:18do. He's such a good player, and we did see the exact same thing last year. I said that I think that his his averages
4:25are going to end up looking like we saw last year where 16ish points per game.
4:30The year before was like 15.9, maybe 16 and a half points per game. But you're a little more optimistic, a little more
4:36bullish on that one. Would love to see it this week. Jacksonville Cincinnati is one of the games that we have circled
4:42for fantasy football where multiple players could put up big spots. So, love seeing you on this one with Chase Brown.
4:49I've got another Bengal I'm going to talk about in a little bit, but I think another game that fantasy managers are
4:55really excited about. And it's one where if this was August, we probably would have brushed by this one. But Carolina Detroit, my bold prediction is the
5:04Carolina Panthers are going to beat the Lions this week. They're three and a half home dogs. So, do that. Do do what
5:10you will with that gambling information.
5:12But Carolina is going to beat Detroit this week straight up in Carolina. I think it's going to be a huge Bryce
5:18Young game. It's going to be a huge Darren Waller game. The Lions are the worst team in fantasy football in the
5:25NFL uh against opposing tight ends.
5:28They've given up somehow they've given up five tight end one weeks this year in only three games played. It's it's seems
5:35impossible, but they are a tight end funnel. And I think Darren Waller gives us a top six tight end finish this week.
5:43I think Darren Waller is not only a starter for you at tight end this week, but I think if you're in a bind, you can
5:48use Darren Waller in the flex this week.
5:50I think he's going to put up a really good number. Bryce Young continues to be the NFL uh passing yardage leader, and
5:56he continues to do so this week. He's going to be a top six scorer at the quarterback position. And then I am
6:03very, very high on Tedo and McMillan in this one as well. But you're also high on McMillan. So, I'm going to pass you
6:09the mic. Uh what are you seeing with McMillan? really disappointing week last uh last last week for McMillan. I even had somebody like tweeting at me for me
6:20being enthusiastic about McMillan like, "Oh my god, I can't believe believe this guy had me drafting Tedo McMillan." And I'm like, "Yo, dude, it's like it's week
6:28three. We had 100 yards in week two. So, what does week four look like?"
6:31>> Yeah, let's be patient. Um projected shootout here feels really good in terms of game environment. Um, I will say I
6:37watched every snap for Carolina last week and I'm nervous a little bit, Theo, about their protection plans. Um, I think that this team, Bradic, a lot of
6:45young pass catchers here that are playing well, they've got their eyes like really set on some big aspirations.
6:50They're being very aggressive in how they draw this thing up. Um, and a few times the execution just wasn't really there with the protection plan. And that
6:58has me a little bit nervous against Detroit, who has actually really gotten pressure on people um, this year.
7:04Obviously, they've got some really talented defensive linemen and that's borne out in the stats. So, that is how this could go ary again. Um Tedo
7:10McMillan I thought was open a lot last week um and could have been targeted. Um particularly when they got down to the
7:16red zone, he was open three straight times on three straight dropbacks at the end of the first half. Um Bryce Young
7:22threw it out of the back of the end zone twice and then got sacked. Um and it's just it was a problem. Pressure was a
7:27problem all week long or all game long.
7:29um they had the second highest um or the second quickest time to pressure last week. Um so that scares me a little bit
7:37in this spot, but if Bryce Young's able to get the ball out, um if they're able to, you know, watch the film and kind of
7:45rebound after some of the things that went poorly last week for Carolina, um I think it's going to be a huge game for
7:51Ted McMillan. He's so good. Um so it's kind of like Chase Brown. We don't want to overreact to players who we know are
7:58good um and are in a position to succeed, which is what we have here with Tedro McMillan. Um and particularly when
8:06we've got such a great matchup and project a game environment, um it feels like a good opportunity to start them, play them in DFS, trade for them,
8:14whatever you want to do here. Um so McMillan is facing a Detroit defense that has allowed a 94% catchable target rate on first three targets to wide
8:23receivers this year. 94% catchable target rate. The league average is 79%.
8:28No one else is above 90%. Um, so it's been as bad as it looks out there, particularly to the wide receiver
8:34position. Obviously, tight ends as well have eaten in this matchup um for fantasy. Um, but yeah, wide receivers have gotten whatever they want. Rocky
8:43has the highest um rate of his targets where he allowed at least one step of separation in coverage this year according to the fantasy point data.
8:52They chart this all out. So on his targets, the receivers's open at a really really high rate, the highest in the league among qualified coverage
9:01players. Um so yeah, I I just feel like this is a great bounceback spot for T-MAC. Um there's a lot of there's a lot
9:08to like at wide receiver this week.
9:09We're going to talk about some of my favorites um that I actually have ahead of Tedo McMill that might surprise people. So I've got him at wide receiver
9:1612, which is above some really good players like the Rams receivers, above George Pickkins, who I think you're excited for this week. um above
9:23Christian Watson, who I think could have a massive week. Um I have a lot of confidence in Ted McMillan in this spot.
9:30I think there's massive massive upside if Carolina can block um enough to to allow for some of these looks to be
9:38converted upon. Um in terms of Bryce Young finding Ted McMillan. So, I'm going to say 20 plus points for T-MAC feels good here. And I think it honestly
9:45could be even more than that. I think this could be one of the biggest games we've seen from him to to this point in
9:49his career.
9:50>> I I love it. I love it. I I had I was going to do McMillan as one of my bold
9:55prediction guys. So you you said it better than I could there. Um love the first read rate information.
10:02McMillan is just an alpha wide receiver and I think it's a perfect opportunity.
10:06I said exactly the same thing on my trade show where you should trade for him before this national TV blowup spot.
10:14He's going to be much more expensive on Monday than he is going to be on Sunday.
10:20uh now is the time to go get some McMillan. There's there's a reason that we were drafting him so highly at the
10:26end of August. Like everything's setting up and I think Bryce Young's success early on in the season bodess well for McMillan rest of the way. I will say you
10:34are correct on how bad that offensive line looked last week and I think that really derailed everything against Cleveland. But it's a chance for them to
10:42reset against Detroit. Detroit's had multiple games here where they've just been allowing big numbers. And I think if Carolina can keep uh Bryce Young
10:50upright, the numbers are going to be massive for them. So, we're locked in.
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11:26I'm going to go with two wide receivers for mine. The first is T. Higgins, and it feels like a blowup game for T.
11:32Higgins is coming. Last week we had it I mean blow up enough. He scored over 20 PPR points. He had six catches for 90
11:40yards on seven targets. The week before could have been even bigger at Houston where he had five catches for 95 yards.
11:46He had 10 targets. Uh per fantasy points he's been just outside of like the top 12 in expected fantasy points at the
11:54wide receiver position. Uh he's right there. the targets, the usage, and I think a lot of people are focusing on Jamar Chase and Parker Washington in
12:03this game, but I think it's going to bode well for a T. Higgins game. I think T. Higgins scores 30 PPR points in this
12:11one. He's the one that you I think 30-pointer for T. Higgins. We've seen these massive blowup weeks for T multiple games throughout his career. We
12:19had a 21-pointer last week. I think we get a 30 burger this week. It's been back-to-back Jamar Chase weeks. We're going to see a T. Higgins week this
12:26week. And then George Pickins. George Pickkins is the one where I think people are starting to tilt out a little bit. A
12:32lot of discourse this summer about about George Pickins versus CD Lamb. So far, CD Lamb completely lapping him, but we have a lot of data supporting Dallas in
12:43this game. Uh looking to the pass. When we look at like the the Dallas Cowboys, they're plus 8.9% pass rate over
12:51expectation. So, they're going to attack Houston uh with the pass. I think that CD Lamb is gonna end up getting a ton of
12:57attention in this one. It's it's an opportunity for Pickkins to put up a huge number in instate matchup. It just feels like a George Pickins game. I know
13:08you probably talked about this one with Ryan. I know he's he's big on George Pickkins as well this week. But George
13:14Pickkins, it's been such a bad runout. I think people are getting super frustrated. He had 15 points last week, but through three weeks played, zero
13:23touchdown catches. I think two touchdown catches for George Pickkins this week.
13:27So, two touchdown catches for Pickkins and a 30-pointer for T. Higgins. Is that bold enough for everybody? I know people are keeping track of these, Jacob.
13:35>> That is bold indeed. Yeah, good luck getting to like such lofty totals. I appreciate the boldness. Um, yeah, you mentioned it. Houston has uh the ninth
13:43highest opponent pass rate over expectation this year. A lot of the defenses we're going to focus on today for these receivers have really high
13:51opponent pass rates over expectation.
13:54For instance, the Detroit Lions have the third highest rate, of course, since they've been so easy to attack. I gave that stat in terms of like first three
13:59target rate allowed to wide receivers.
14:02Uh their opponents have been well above the league average and and the expectation every single week. Um couple other defenses we're going to get to
14:09here like the Saints and the Falcons.
14:11I'm really excited for that game. Both of those teams are top five in opponent pass rate over expectation. Both those teams like to pass the ball, especially
14:18like with Michael Pennix back in there.
14:20I think that could be a shootout. Um, I think that's something people might not realize with Houston, but it's been a
14:25positive PE every single week.
14:28>> So, we talked a lot about these wide receivers and you have a couple of more wide receivers to talk about both
14:34playing in the same game. Indianapolis against Washington. a really interesting one where you've got Washington come off off this big win over Seattle. You've
14:43got the international game element and it's one of these nationally televised games. 9:30 a.m. on the East Coast. Who are players in this game that fantasy
14:52managers should be banking on?
14:54>> Well, it's Josh Towns, of course, Washington as the second highest pass rate over expectation if you look at their opponents and how they've chosen
15:02to attack. Um, so even the Eagles were high in terms of proe against them in week one, which is unusual for the
15:09Eagles. They're normally pretty runheavy. Um, and then the past two weeks, Dallas and Seattle have been extremely pass heavy against this
15:16defense. That's really unusual for Seattle. It was the highest POE game of Seattle during like the past two seasons. So maybe that's a Brian Flurry
15:25note. Maybe they're going to be more pass heavy this year or something. Or maybe that's just like how teams want to
15:29attack Washington's defense. Um, so I think that that the latter could make a lot of sense. Um, and that's borne out
15:37in the stats. That's why if you just watch the Washington games, it feels so easy to attack this defense down the
15:43field. And then particularly I feel like we've got this matchup here where they're really bad against the slot. Um, that lines up so well for Josh DS. Dude,
15:53I watched I'm I'm nervous about Daniel Jones. That's the real That's the only thing that I think is keeping Josh Downs
15:58from having like 150 yards in this game.
16:00I watched the Josh DS uh tape last week and it was unbelievable. It's truly like close to what Z Flowers is doing right
16:08now where Shane Stiken was just cooking.
16:10He had Josh DS in motion before at the snap of the football on nearly onethird of his routes which is the highest in
16:18the league last week. Um and so much of it was to find and create space for him against different zone coverages. Um and
16:27really attack what defenses are doing.
16:28And I think that we're going to see Stiken ahead of this Washington defense here um in week four. So the Commanders
16:34have allowed an 89% catch ball target rate on first three targets to wide receivers. That's second. That's almost as high as the Detroit rate that I gave
16:42you earlier. Um and then if you look individually at the quarterbacks, um the the the coverage players on this team, they have the number one and number five
16:51players in terms of fantasy points per target allowed among qualified cover players. 10 or more uh targets defended this season is what I used uh using the
17:01data suite 2.0 here from Fantasy Points.
17:03Number one, number five. Number five is Nick Cross, who missed week three and is out again in week four. So, he's who
17:08typically covers the slot. So, he was struggling and now he's out. So, presumably it's even worse. Um the guy that they moved to the slot is the guy
17:17who's number one in fantasy points per target allowed this year. It's Mike Sandra still. Um he has the league's highest rate. He's just been getting
17:28people have been able to get whatever they want against him in coverage this year um down the field all over the
17:32place and I just feel like it's such a good spot for downs. On the other side, I've by the way have downs at wide
17:36receiver 10 this week.
17:38>> Yeah. And before your before your Washington take I'll add I mean it's wild. The Washington secondary is so bad. They've allowed the most catches,
17:46the most touchdown receptions to wide receivers and the third most receiving yards to wide receivers. are getting fried week in week out by opposing wide
17:55outs. So, uh yeah, that's a that's a great take right there.
17:58>> On the other side of the ball, we're again looking at slot receiver here with Stefon Diggs. 64% slot rate. Um and he
18:05faces an Indianapolis defense that has just funneled targets to the slot. Sauce Garner and Charvarious Ward are really good. That's the strength of this
18:14defense. Um for the Colts, they stay on their side. They don't really go to the slot. So, um, their rate of, um, targets
18:23where they were in coverage and the receiver who was going against them had at least a step of separation, um, was
18:2962 and 67% for Ward and S Garner. That's a very good rate. Um, the rate for their slot corner is 82%. Their slot corner
18:37has allowed 15 catches on 17 targets this year, 88%. It's the highest rate among qualified players. Um he has the fifth most yards allowed in total in
18:46coverage this year as their slot coverage player. Um that's where Diggs lives. Stefon Diggs is just doing the same thing we've seen him do here for a
18:53while now. He's eighth in target per route run rate on the year 30%. Um and we saw him run a lot more targets last
18:59week in week two. Uh his role got scaled back a little bit in the Jane Daniels game and the debacle there the second
19:05half. It was just kind of ugly and he didn't play that much. I was curious what it would look like for him going
19:10forward. He was close to a full-time player in week three and obviously they beat the Seahawks. So the vibes feel much different here now just a week
19:17later. Um and I think in a projected shootout, a potential shootout here against the Colts, um the easiest way to attack being through the slot, we're
19:23going to see another big digs game. So I'll say I have Josh Downs ranked at top at as a top 10 receiver, I'll say we'll
19:28get um yeah, let's go with 20 again. 20 points for downs. We're just calling out 20 points for everybody here.
19:34>> Everybody's getting 20 this week.
19:35Everybody. This is a wide receiver week.
19:38>> Can Diggs get to 20? We're gonna say Diggs finishes as a top 24 receiver, which is way higher than Consensus has
19:43him ranked and has points in McLaren.
19:47>> So, McLaren also, we are recording this uh in the afternoon on Friday. Terry McLaren, it sounds like he's a little
19:54bit banged up. Um he's questionable for Sunday's game. He was added to the injury report, questionable for Sunday's game. So, we don't have all the
20:01information there, but make sure you're monitoring that one uh throughout Saturday. and we'll keep an eye on if you have Terry McLaren, you might
20:08potentially need a pivot for this one.
20:10Feels like a game with a lot of points.
20:12One question for you, Jacob, you you watch a lot of these Colts. Um, we're seeing Jonathan Taylor plus 10% target share. Uh, is this potentially a
20:20Jonathan Taylor game as well or is it It's all Josh DS, man.
20:24>> I mean, anytime you get the Colts as favorites, it should be a Jonathan Taylor game. The Colts have a implied
20:29point total of 26 points this week. It's top five. It's tied with the Chiefs. So, like, yeah, anytime you get that kind of
20:34game script, it's a Jonathan Taylor game. Um, I there's it feels like so many of the fantasy stars this week are
20:41like lined up with really good matchups.
20:43So, of course, it's probably just going to be one of those weeks where everything sucks, but yeah, on paper looks really good for JT.
20:50>> Yeah, we're not even talking about Derrick Henry, who has his revenge game against his former team and might put up
20:55like 40 points. So, uh, we we left that one alone, but Dererick Henry would have been a fun one to talk about as well.
21:01Uh, continuing these bold predictions, I'm going to go back to the Well, we talked about T. Higgins in the Jacksonville Cincinnati game. I think
21:08it's a Bashel Totin game. You talked about Chase Brown. I think it's going to be Toutin. [clears throat] You've been making these bold predictions about
21:14Bashel Tutin. I think it's signal that the team wanting to get him points. I think Trevor Lawrence wanting to keep him going. And I think we finally see it
21:23against these Bengals. Last week, Jaylen Warren fried the Bengals. And I think we see something similar with Bashel Tutin.
21:30I don't think it goes quite as crazy as what we saw last week with with Warren, but I think he's going to have a season
21:37high in points. I think Bashel Tutin getting 18 PPR points. Continues the trend of scoring more points each and every week. 9.8 in week 1, 14.2 in week
21:492. Last week was 17. Goes north of 18 this week. And the touchdown streak continues. He finds the end zone once
21:56again. One thing I think was interesting and I'll give a shout out to Pat Karine on this one. It was something Pat Karine
22:01wrote. Pat's going to be on a show as a guest sometime in the next couple weeks.
22:05Uh talking about Parker Washington, we finally saw teams doubling him last week and I think we're going to see more of
22:11that. So, I think it's a chance for other Jacksonville Jaguars to put up numbers this week. Keep an eye on Jacobe
22:17Meyers in in in other leagues as well. I think he's setting up well, but I think teams are going to start really selling
22:23out trying to take away Parker Washington. And I think it bodess well for Toutin. One thing we haven't seen from Toutin is a game with more than two
22:31receptions. I'm not going crazy bold here, but I think he gets more than that against Cincinnati as well. You see the
22:37success with Jaylen Warren. I think Toutton ends up with, let's say, four catches in this one. Is that bold, Jacob?
22:44>> I think it makes a ton of sense, right?
22:46You look at this Cincinnati defense and um they did give up more rushing than expected last week. Jaylen Warren played really well against them. Um, but I
22:53think you the way to attack this defense in theory, right, is to get the ball to your playmakers out in space. Um, I
23:00don't think you want to just be like jamming it up the middle with Chris Rodriguez over and over against this defense. Um, so I think that makes a lot
23:06of sense. I think we could see a lot more catches for Tudin in like a the high-flying type of game here.
23:10>> Yeah, you talked about that. Jim Coventry's talked about that a lot where where the linebackers in Cincinnati struggle against running backs and tight
23:16ends. We saw that huge Daltton Schultz week followed up by a huge Jaylen Warren week. So getting Toutin out in space,
23:23it's always a beautiful thing and we'll continue to try to sneak in Bashel Tutin each and every week, but at some point
23:28it's not going to be bold cuz the guy's going to be averaging 15 points per game in the next couple weeks. So not going
23:32to be bold. We got to get it in now. Um, another player who >> was fantastic last week.
23:39>> 17 targets for Michael Wilson. I mean, >> it's insane. And I I I always love putting this out on X, but over the last
23:46two seasons, the only player to have more 15 yard 15 target games or excuse me, the same amount of 15 target games
23:54as Michael Wilson is Jamar Chase. That's the list. It's Chase Wilson ahead of Pukanakua, ahead of Drake London. Uh, unbelievable. This is like another
24:05another crazy target total week and it's it's coincides with Trey McBride continuing to get his big target totals and it coincides with a Jeremiah Love
24:14week. So, where are we at on Michael Wilson this week? I know you've talked about him on multiple shows this week.
24:20Let's talk about him again. How good will his week four look against this New York Giants team?
24:26>> Everything looks really good on paper.
24:28Um I'm curious how this will go because the Giants are very easy to attack. have been very easy to attack this year. Um
24:34they're struggling to get pressure and now they're down Brian Burns. So like maybe this is an opportunity to get Marvin Harrison Jr. going or something.
24:41I don't know. But um I think on paper it looks really good if what we've seen is how is going to be a carryover here. The
24:48Cardinals are implied for 23 points this week. That's like barely below the Rams.
24:53That's above, you know, the Commanders who we talked about in that potential shootout against the Colts. That's above the Cowboys this week. That's above the
24:58Packers. That's a really strong implied point total here. And I think that says so much about this defense. And so this
25:06is a defense you've kind of been able to do whatever you want. And what we saw last week is that the Cardinals wanted
25:11to get the ball into Michael Wilson's hands. Um they were very intentional about doing that. They ran screens to him. They used him as a pre- snap motion
25:18man a ton. He led all players in points, scored as a pre- snap motion man last week. Um they're getting him the ball as
25:25a catch-and run player. And so I think that there's a chance that we see that carry over here into week four. Um the
25:31Giants have the second lowest pressure rate. Um and in terms of like quick pressures, that's very low. Um so I think this is a really good spot for
25:40Wilson to again play well potentially.
25:43Um the Giants have the seventh highest catchable target rate allowed on wide receiver first read targets. Um so I think Wilson has a chance to give us
25:52another monster game. Um, I've got him ranked at wide receiver 11 just behind Josh DS. Um, and all, you know, Park
25:59Washington, all those guys at the top.
26:01I'm ahead of some really, really good receivers this week. But that's what the volume has looked like for this guy.
26:05He's wide receiver 11 in expected fantasy points on the year. And with a really good matchup here with Arizona projected to score a lot of points, I
26:13feel good about that. So, um, we're going to say he's right there with Josh DS, one of the top scorers at receiver
26:18this week. Um, 20 plus feels pretty easy. Um, as long as Arizona doesn't do anything weird here in week four, >> this is one of the most important games
26:29for fantasy football, I think, on the slate because you have Jacobe Brassette with the opportunity to win his second game of the year. I Arizona going into
26:40New York getting a win this week, I think like would go such a long way for the team just sort of closing the door
26:46on maybe we want to see Carson Beck at some point. Uh we knew in week one that was a huge win for him. Getting this
26:53second win starting out the year two and two. Let's keep this offense going.
26:57Let's go Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Jeremiah Love each and every week. Uh go Jacobe Brassette. Go get this win in New
27:03York. Sorry Giants fans about that one, but we want to keep seeing Jacobe Brassette the machine go on. More 15 plus target games for Michael Wilson.
27:11Let's keep that thing going. Uh I made a prediction about Bryce Young. sort of like two quarterbacks we talked about uh
27:19since we started doing this this this year. Uh Tyler Shuck and Bryce Young.
27:23How does Tyler Shuck line up for you this week? I had somebody asked me on the Start Sit Show, Trevor Lawrence
27:30versus Tyler Shuck. And I went Trevor Lawrence. Am I wrong on that one, Jacob?
27:35>> I have Tyler Shuck ranked QB3 this week.
27:37I have Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson ahead of him. Um so I I really like this spot. I think um we saw the Falcons
27:45potentially play with a little bit more pace. They've been extremely runheavy during the Cooper Rush experience. Um I think that there's a chance that if this
27:53game ends up being one where the Falcons are playing from behind um that we see a huge Drake London game and a lot of
27:59passing and it just gets into a back and forth game between these two offenses.
28:03The overunders 47 and a half points.
28:05That's good. Um the Saints are implied for 25 points. That's good. And I think that Vegas actually took sort of conservative approaches with that
28:11because you know that the Falcons offense can go to the under any given time and that kind of tanks it. Um but
28:18if the Falcons play up to their potential, I think this could be a like the highest scoring game on the slate
28:22potentially. Um they the Falcons have been a team that offenses have really really aggressively attacked through the air. They have the highest opponent pass
28:33rate over expectation uh on the on the year and it's been extremely high every single week. Um and I mean you look at
28:40the Saints team like that's what they're going to do, right? Like no Travis Han, they were already extremely high in pass
28:47rate over expectation. And so when you face a passel defense without your starting running back, it seems like that's probably just what you're going
28:54to do. So I feel really good about Shuck. Um I obviously feel really good about Alave as well. So we'll say a top
29:02three finish for Shuck at the quarterback position. Um and then Devon Vele I think is a startable player here.
29:09I've got him in like the exact same range as Stefon Diggs as like a lowend wide receiver 2, high-end wide receiver
29:14three. Um I think basically like all the underlying peripheral type data backs up the strong start for Vele. Um so for as
29:24long as Jordan Tyson's out, Vile is going to probably still be a a trustworthy producer for fantasy.
29:31And then Joan Johnson easily could be a top five tight end, too. So, I just feel really really good about this spot um
29:36for all the Saints pass catching options. And that starts with Tyler Shuck.
29:41>> It's wild with Tyler Shuck. He has a chance to to like join Drew Brees in these record books for like most
29:48touchdown passes in New Orleans Saints history. He won't get to like one of the the insane seasons for Breeze. I mean,
29:55right now, Tyler Shuck has uh eight passing touchdowns on the year through three games played. We got to think that that 2.66 passing touchdowns a game
30:04maybe comes down a little bit, but when you look at the all-time seasons for the Saints, Drew Brees has the top 12
30:10seasons. I think when we get to the end of the year, uh Tyler Shuck's going to be in there. North of 30 passing
30:16touchdowns seems like a very, very reasonable bet. This team continues to pass a lot. I also say I'm on the sleeper show, I'm going to throw Kendry
30:25Miller in there. I think he's sort of a a sleeper, a desperation flex kind of running back. I'm not ready to put a
30:31bold prediction on Kendra Miller, but I do agree with you that it's a game where it it should go over. There's a ton of
30:37confidence with both offenses. Atlanta last week against Green Bay, I think they're they're really really um headed in the right direction. And we know
30:45Tyler Shuck and the Kell Moore experience, Chris, all these guys set for a really big week. So, we're rooting for it. How about Z Flowers, Jacob? We
30:54are we going to see a a full snapshared Z Flowers week this week. Um, just awesome stuff. We talked about the
31:00disconnect where fantasy managers who are like on X and listening to podcasts like ours, they'll know about some of these advanced metrics with Z Flowers,
31:09but like the general fantasy player who's looking at like counting stats, are they quite aware of what's about to happen with Z Flowers rest of the way?
31:17>> I don't think so. Um yeah, Ryan Heath and I mentioned we did this um like draft where it's like kind of looking at
31:22rest of it might as well be rest of season rankings, you know? Um and Flowers was a early to mid round two
31:27pick. Um and I think that in most people's minds, he's probably still like a round three or four pick, right? Like
31:34just where he was drafted. Um for the terminally online like us, like they know what's going on. He's been targeted on half of his routes. He has more
31:42receiving yards than Amaran St. Brown and he's run 25 routes and Sun God has run 111 routes and Z Flowers has more
31:49receiving yards on the year. He has over 100 yards after the catch already. It's just insane. Like he's played basically one game um in terms of snaps. Not even
31:59really. So I have him wide receiver seven rest of season. Um and that's just because the receivers who are ahead of
32:07him are so dang good. Like do you take him over Chris Alve? That's why I have wide receiver five rest of season, you
32:13know? um or wide receiver six, CD Lamb is wide receiver five. I think he could be as good as any of those players. And
32:19I mean Tennessee Titans, man, it's like the perfect time timing here where it all just aligns where it's like, okay, you have the basically the easiest
32:28possible matchup and his hamstring seems to be in a good place where he's putting in full practices and the dude is just
32:37absolutely shredding to the tune of almost 10 yards per out run. So, I don't know. Hot take a thousand yards for Z
32:44Flowers this week. I don't know what to say. Like, the Titans have the second highest catchable target rate allowed on wide
32:51receiver targets. Only the the Lions were worse. They have the lowest quick pressure rate. Their time to pressure is 2.9 seconds. That's crazy. The second
33:01lowest rate is 2.68. So, they're like way way way above everybody else. So, it's like do whatever you want. Run your
33:08play action stuff. this is an opportunity for you Declan Doyle to just test out all the stuff that you want to
33:13do here. Maybe it'll just run all over him. Maybe it's Derrick Henry game. That makes a lot of sense. So between that
33:17and Z Flowers, like the chance that his hamstring might not be where we want. Um I do have them ranked behind some
33:24players who I think are safer, but I I mean if there's if there if they have more than 25 dropbacks, I think Flowers
33:33probably leads all wide receivers in scoring this week. So, I'll say top five finish for Flowers this week.
33:38>> Yeah, I was going to say we got to put something with it or somebody's going to hold your feet to the fire on the
33:42thousand receiving yards prediction that are tracking our stuff. A quick note that this show is brought to you by Better. If you're watching football, you
33:49want a little more action on the games.
33:51Check out Better. Make your picks on your favorite players or jump into the Better Sports Book for spreads, totals, and money lines. It's all in one app.
33:58And I want to give a big shout out to Jacob because Beyond the Box score YouTube, you guys went over 10,000 uh
34:05subscribers. That's a huge huge uh accomplishment by you guys onward and upward. Uh everybody who's watching this show on YouTube, go over to Beyond the
34:12Box Score, hit that subscribe button.
34:14What else do you guys have coming out?
34:16Is this uh your final recording of the week or you got anything else going on, Jacob?
34:19>> 10,000 sickos. Yeah. Thanks for joining us. Uh we do live uh podcasts every Tuesday and Thursday if you ever want to
34:25hang out and ask questions and stuff like that. Um, we've got a I've got a tight end rest of season rankings update
34:31where I'm going to really get into the nitty-gritty about the Brock Bowers role and everything that we've seen updating uh people on the tight end position. But
34:38yeah, that's pretty much it for this week, Theo. Um, you and I have just been grinding away. Kenan Sadique, a big
34:43updates on him for sure. So, if you want to check out that video or if you haven't seen any of the stuff that I put
34:48out this week, like I do a rest of season rankings update at every position and I dig into the usage uh for every
34:54team. The wide receiver video is two hours long this week, but it's I think worth it if you're really deep into the
35:01weeds on this stuff. It took me like freaking six hours or something to make that video because it's like everything I'm curious about with every single
35:08player on every single team at the wide receiver position. Um, so if you want to keep up with all that stuff, you can
35:12check us out at Beyond the Box Score.
35:14It's pretty sick stuff.
35:15>> What's your podcast speed when you're listening to podcast, Jacob?
35:18>> What's my podcast?
35:19>> Where do you go? Do you go like Are you a 1.5 guy or you >> normally? Yeah, >> I go 1.5. I know there's some people out
35:24there that go way higher than that. I really can't consume, but that one two hours I might I might maybe the gym
35:30tomorrow morning. I'm going to go maybe maybe one I'm going to go one point 1 1.75 cuz you're not you're not a slow
35:36talker. I feel like if I go 2.0 Jacob, it might be like way too much. I'm not going to have to rewind sometimes. I
35:42will give it I will give it a listen for sure. And check out I'm I'm over with Jacob every single Monday uh doing some
35:48really really fun shows over on his channel. So make sure you go check that one out. I will be dropping my sleeper
35:53show that's coming out probably Saturday. Uh we're dropping a ton of content right here at Rotoire. We're going to help you crush your leagues
35:59this season.
