11 Must-Draft Players for Fantasy Football (with Ryan Heath)
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Jul 24, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:05What impact will new play callers have in the 2026 fantasy football season?
0:10Joined today by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. I'm Theo Griminger, lead fantasy analyst right here at Rotoire. Ryan wrote an awesome article and we're going
0:18to dive into it. But before we get started, Ryan, is this the season that fantasy managers should finally fade Derk Henry?
0:28>> No, it's actually not. This is a new take for me. Every year I have been the nerd getting shoved into a locker by
0:33Derrick Henry, but I really like the value he presents this year. Uh I've done some additional research kind of on the impact of pass catching at the
0:42running back position that we don't need to get into now, but that has left me higher on Derk Henry. And also this new
0:49play caller in Baltimore, Declan Doyle, has left me higher on Derk Henry. We have been hearing that the running backs have been a bigger part of the screen
0:59game uh throughout these summer practices. Derrick Henry has been one of the most efficient running backs in the passing game uh over the past several
1:08seasons. He's fourth in yards per out run. Leads the position in yards per target. I really think that if there's any play caller that comes in and says,
1:15"Hey, I want to get the ball in Derrick Henry's hands more." Seems like a reasonable thing to do, right? uh that
1:21just a few like design targets per game for a Derrick Henry could go a long way for him in fantasy. You're getting a
1:27massive discount on him right now toward the end of the second round in PPR formats. I think this is a great year to
1:33draft Derrick Henry.
1:35>> Yeah, I agree with you and I keep trying to find reasons to fade him and the only reason is the age and that's usually a
1:40really good way to fade running backs.
1:42Like historically, if you were like the guys 30 plus, you know, let's let's slow our role here. let's look for a running
1:48back that's a little bit more in their prime. That has probably paid off if we look over like the last 20 years. It's
1:54been a recent trend where we've seen, you know, a lot of these 27 and up running backs, it's been like four
1:59straight years of one of those guys finishing as the RB1 overall. And Derrick Henry, like the second round valuation, we're seeing it, but we're
2:07also seeing like these one-off drafts where in the NFC, he's falling into the third round like a lot. FFPC, we're seeing, you know, a lot of those uh two,
2:17three turn type exposures. I mean, you can have a Jir Gibbs, Dererick Henry team theoretically right now. So, really, really interesting. Let's kind
2:25of back it up cuz you wrote this incredible article, Ryan, and you've been making the rounds on a lot of shows
2:30like this one, sort of talking about it.
2:32If you didn't get a chance to read it, it's it's very well SEOed over over at my old spot, Fantasy Points, 2026, new
2:38play callers, the fantasy football impact from them. Um, it's free, right, Ryan? That's still a free article.
2:45>> No, it is not free.
2:47Got Yeah. Got to have the Fantasy Points basic subscription to read that one at this point. The sub the subs got too
2:53upset that it was free for 24 hours. So, sorry about that.
2:57>> So, there you go. So, it's not free, but we're still going to break down a number of takeaways from it. But I think
3:01really, let's go kind of a macro here.
3:04Why should fantasy managers care more about play callers than ever sort of heading into this season? Ryan.
3:12So, one of the biggest things with play callers is that over the past few years in the NFL, we've just seen a bigger
3:19separation between the really good offenses and the really bad offenses. It feels like there are very few teams in the middle. Every year, we just get a
3:27handful of total cheat code fantasy point printers. Uh, and a handful of teams that are just feel completely dead. Uh, especially as we get later
3:37into the season. So macro level that's one of the bigger things happening. But some of the mechanism behind this I would argue is the spread of the Kyle
3:49Shanahan and Shawn McVey sort of way of calling an offense. Uh I call this and Retrievar calls it this uh the Mick
3:56Shanahan coaching tree. A Mick Shanahan system. It just means uh a play caller that has coached with Kyle Shanahan or
4:05Shawn McVey uh has just been driving incredible fantasy football outcomes, incredible team level efficiency as we look over the past several seasons. Uh,
4:17for example, it I like to break down uh successful fantasy football picks by league winner rate, which is just uh players that get into playoff teams on
4:28ESPN over 55% of the time uh just because ESPN is who releases that data, right? Uh literally half of them uh
4:36since 2022 have come from this Mick Shanahan coaching tree and it's been much less than half of the league over that uh period of time. So really, we're
4:47seeing the fantasy football players in these offenses dramatically outperforming expectation, right? Uh I will say this year, uh every year the
4:57Mick Shanahan tree expands. Uh teams keep hiring these guys that have coached with Kyle Shanahan, with Shawn McVey. We are up to 44% of the league now has some
5:09flavor of a Mc Shanahan play caller. So, I don't know if it's going to be uh like as potent of a cheat code to just
5:16blindly draft the guys on these teams uh going forward as it has been in the past few seasons, but we can kind of pop open
5:24the hood uh and just look at some of the underlying factors that lead to the successes of these offenses and kind of
5:32evaluate from there to try to get an edge uh in terms of this year's play callers and the ones that we should be
5:38targeting because there are so many new play callers this here. It's like over half the league has a new play caller on
5:44offense right now.
5:45>> Yeah. And we love it, too. I mean, you think about last year, the Super Bowl was two new play callers going
5:50head-to-head. Um, and it's a change league, and I think, you know, every year we have to be open-minded to certain offenses rapidly improving, and
5:58that's what makes fantasy football uh so much fun. It's there can be huge breakouts from a team perspective that can provide like huge ADP wins. You
6:08mentioned the the like the MC Shanahan coaching tree and I think one of the the coordinators that we are most excited
6:16about that's taking on a head coaching role this year is Clint Kubiaak. What are some things that make you really excited about Clint Kubak in Vegas and
6:26how how could that impact specifically Ashton Genty? I mean I've been talking about Brock Bowers for weeks here but Genti is also a player that I have
6:33inside my top 10 overall rankings. You can find those right over at Rotoire.
6:38I'm very enthusiastic about a year 2 breakout season. Where are you at specifically on Genty and then sort of your brief thoughts on Bowowers and how
6:46they could thrive in this Kubak system?
6:50>> Yeah, I'm very much in on Genty as well.
6:52He's one of my favorite picks uh kind of in the back end of the first round. He's one of my biggest targets there. Uh the
7:00reasoning for that as it relates to Kubiaak is everywhere that Clint Kubak has gone and called an offense, we have seen them overperform in terms of
7:11efficiency relative to their offensive line personnel or at least what we thought of their offensive lines in the previous season, right? Uh, I just went
7:20back and checked the Fantasy Points preseason rankings, the PFF preseason rankings, uh, just comparing several different offensive line ranking sources
7:30from the preseason of all these years.
7:33And you look at it in 2021, uh, when Kubiaak was with the Vikings, they were a bottom five to bottom 10, uh,
7:42offensive line by consensus in the preseason. They end up ranking 15th in EPA per play. Uh the 2024 Saints were I
7:51depending who you ask a bottom three or a at least a bottom 10 offensive line heading into the year. Uh they were
7:58ninth in EPA per play as long during Derek Carr starts when they had their starting QB healthy. And then of course
8:04last year the 2025 Seahawks win the Super Bowl. Consensus bottom three offensive line uh by PFF, by fantasy points, by pretty much every source that
8:15uh aggregates offensive line rankings.
8:17And they were still 15th in EPA per play uh overall across the full season and yeah, of course overperformed enough to
8:24win the Super Bowl. So the offensive line was just the biggest thing holding Ashton Genty back last last year. Uh he
8:31led the entire NFL in yards after contact per attempt on plays that he had at least one yard before first contact
8:39with a defender. So uh largely on plays that were effectively blocked. He was one of the most efficient and explosive running backs in the league. He got hit
8:48behind the line of scrimmage on nearly half of his attempts, which is like the worst rate of any qualifying running back in the league. So just some
8:57additional competency on the offensive line. Of course, they also get Colton Miller back. They sign Tyler Linderbomb.
9:04So the personnel has also improved some.
9:06But just Kubak being there and knowing that he's able to kind of scheme around deficiencies in that way in a way that's
9:14led to efficient offense just makes me feel really good about Genty because he kind of had everything we look for uh in
9:21a league winning running back last year.
9:23He had an amazing passing game role. Top five in target share. Incredible route participation right off the bat. Uh was top five in uh team carry share inside
9:34the 10. Like he he's there in all the highv value situations. He had the opportunity share. It was really just that the Raiders offense couldn't
9:42support a real RB1. And now that I think they will be able to. Uh it it's just wheels up for Genty is how I'm looking
9:50at it.
9:52Yeah, I love it. I mean, I think that you you nailed it. And I think that one other thing we used to talk about a lot,
9:57Ryan, when we potted together over at Fantasy Points was sort of these how consolidated could this offense be?
10:04That's another sort of efficiency hack in itself. when you're looking at the Raiders, how consolidated can it be where Bowowers and Genty, even though we
10:12have maybe some question marks about this offense, can both of these guys uh still beat expectations at their ADP based on just how heavy the usage will
10:22be for these two players combined?
10:25>> I think they can. Uh, so what we've seen from previous Kubak offenses, probably the like the most defining efficiency cheat code from him has been the deep
10:36targets on play action. Uh, looking at last year, Jackson Smith and Jigba led the NFL just in fantasy points on deep
10:45play action targets. 5.1 per game just on those specific plays, right? Uh you look at Rasheed Shahed with Derek Carr in 2024. Uh 4.1 fantasy points per game
10:56just on deep play action. Both of those are top five marks over the past handful of seasons. So that that's like the
11:03number one defining thing of a Kubak passing game is that even if you don't have the league high passing volume, uh
11:12you are getting the really strong play action efficiency from the preferred downfield receiving option. Uh and I do think more than likely that is just
11:23going to be Brock Bowers this year. Uh I I have like Trey Tucker interest in baseball for that kind of reason from
11:30that angle. But ultimately when we evaluate play callers, it's really easy to try to pattern match like, oh, this player is the deep threat. He's going to
11:40be the Rasheed Shahed or however you want to look at it or the JSN in this offense. I think ultimately a lot of the
11:47time just the most talented players are the ones that are benefiting from the play calling cheat codes at least for the good play callers, right? Uh, I
11:54think Clint Kubak's a smart guy. I think that therefore he's probably going to want to find ways to feature Brock Bowers, right? [snorts] It doesn't have
12:01to always be as galaxy brain as well, actually. Uh, and I literally did this with Tory Horton last year being so in
12:09on him and kind of leaving JSN to the wolves and not not being as in on him for this exact reason, right? So, I I
12:16just want to not overthink it. Not Galaxy Brand like Yeah. uh efficient play action can lead to in like incredible efficient big plays for the
12:26top receiver on an offense. That's Brock Bowers. That's kind of where it can stop and that's okay. Yeah, I think it's
12:32really interesting. And you mentioned the offensive line improvement. I love this stat where if you look at 2024, Seattle allowed 54 sacks. Last year
12:41under Kubak, that number turned around to 27. And so they went from having the fourth most sacks allowed in 2024 to the
12:49fifth fewest in 2025. Uh a lot of you know that can be can be pointed towards improved offensive line play, but it's
12:55certainly scheme and coordinators. Uh and Kubak is just a remarkably bright guy. And then you talk about providing big ADP wins. We sort of saw it Kamar
13:05was a big ADP win in 2024. Last year JSN a league winner. And then if we kind of look at collectively Kenneth Walker and
13:12Zack Charbanet without like the splits, those guys had 19 rushing scores combined, a way way less uh push from the backup running backs in Vegas. Guys
13:22like Mike Washington are way lesser threats to challenge anything when it comes to Genty. Talking about play callers, Ryan, you know, two of the
13:30players that you circled uh in your article were were Mike McDaniel guys. I mean really it's Omar and Hampton and it's Lad Makanki. Let's start out with
13:41Lad Makanki because you've taken a very bullish approach with Lad sort of this entire off season. What are some of the
13:49things you're seeing with the Mike McDaniel scheme uh that could lead to a huge bounceback season for Lad Maki? Go back to his rookie year. 15 points per
13:58game right outside of wide receiver one land. Had that remarkably good NFL playoff game where he set the record for the most receiving yards ever by a
14:05rookie and then last year failed to deliver in round two. Now he's sort of in that mid wide receiver 2 range in ADP
14:13where there's a lot of really fun clicks around him. What makes you uh in on lad this year?
14:21Yeah. So, first of all, we've just got to recognize that this offense could just be one of the most efficient in the
14:27NFL from a macro level, right? Uh, since 2022, Mike McDaniel has had Tua Tonga Valoa ranking seventh best in adjusted net yards per attempt. That's ahead of
14:38like every quarterback in the NFL that everybody agrees is better than Tuatunga Valoa, right? It's ahead of Drake May, Matt Stafford, Dak Prescott, everybody.
14:46Right? So you add that to Justin Herbert and you kind of have to say step back and say, okay, there's an outcome here
14:56where Justin Herbert just leads the NFL in passing touchdowns that this offense leads the NFL in yards per attempt. And we we have to kind of evaluate the pass
15:05catchers based on at least that ceiling outcome having that in mind, right? So when I look to Lad McConi and I think
15:14about, okay, who are the receivers that can kind of push push efficiency here, push the big plays? I think the answer
15:23to that is Lad. Uh he's like an incredibly underrated go ball and deep threat. Uh by yards per run, just on go
15:31routes down the field, he's fourth best since 2022. He's just ahead of Tyreek Hill by yards per out run on these deep
15:39go balls. You also see his splits come way up uh whenever Joe Walt and Rashawn Slater are on the field. In 2024, his
15:47rookie season with where largely both of them were healthy and playing, he averaged over four yards per out run on go routes. And of course, yeah, that's
15:55when he was driving these hyperefficient fantasy performances. So you get the personnel along the offensive lineback.
16:04Uh you get Mike McDaniel system in which he will often utilize a fullback taking an extra wide receiver off the field. Uh
16:13which means that McConi is competing with one fewer other wide receiver.
16:17There's uh no Keenan Allen in the offense this year. And you can just paint a picture of like, well, Lad McConi could just lead the NFL in yards
16:27per run this year or he could lead the NFL in deep touchdowns this year. Like these are the types of like far out 95th
16:35percentile outcomes that I see for Lad.
16:37Uh, and that just has to get you at least interested, right? Um, I I would agree with the thought that his price
16:45over the summer has come up uh quite a bit to where maybe yeah, we're pricing some of this in. Uh, but I still think
16:53there's like juice left to squeeze there. He's he's somebody that I'm pretty interested uh in drafting around where he goes. Um, moving over to Omar
17:02and Hampton though, I I think the case for him is even clearer uh from a McDaniel standpoint. So McDaniel's backfields have always just been some of
17:11the most valuable in the NFL. Uh at fantasy points data, we have a stat called expected fantasy points per game that just measures the total backfield
17:20opportunity. Uh like weighted for goal line touches, receptions, all of that, the things that lead to more fantasy points. Uh McDaniel since 2021 ranks
17:29sixth best in total backfield expected fantasy points per game. Uh [snorts] last year uh was we had Greg Roman with the Chargers. he ranks dead last on that
17:39list. So, it's a massive increase just in the value of a McDaniel backfield where he does throw to his running backs, he does use them at the goal line
17:47in creative ways, right? So, there's just a big pie here available for Omar and Hampton. And I just am not that
17:56convinced by any of the con arguments that people have brought up for Hampton this year. Uh yes, he was in kind of a
18:03committee with Kamani Vidal for a couple of games after he came back from injury, but that's not that surprising. That happens to plenty of running backs as
18:10they're coming back from lower body injuries. Uh I think Hampton is actually a pretty strong McDaniel scheme fit. Uh people are obsessed with Katon Mitchell
18:21for this because he's like the small and fast guy, but I mean Hampton was top five in yards per carry on outside runs
18:29last year, which is a lot of what McDaniel likes to do, right next to Devon Achan on that list, right? So I I
18:35really see the Hampton skill set translating to a McDaniel offense. And yeah, as I've said, just his his running backs have been amazing pretty
18:44consistently, even when his offenses haven't been amazing. So, I I feel really good about Hampton uh in round two, and I don't actually think that
18:52like the downside is that much worse than a Saquon Barkley, for example. Uh even if he's at like a 55% opportunity
19:00share and like a really worst case scenario where he's not this everyown bellcow, uh in like a McDaniel backfield, that's still 14 15 fantasy
19:09points per game. Uh that's like what Saquon Barkley averaged last year, for example, right? Like I I don't think that the risk is actually that much
19:16higher for Hampton than most every other round two running back. And I I think the ceiling is is better than pretty
19:22much all of them. Yeah. I mean, last year at this time, Omar Hampton was one of like my guys and and I was pounding
19:28the table to draft him in literally every league and I felt like it was actually happening. He averaged 15 points per game last year. That's
19:35running back 12 as a rookie. Obviously, he got injured sort of right as he was ramping up and then he came back to sort
19:42of a different situation where the offensive line was decimated, but Omarian Hampton was an elite prospect and the first round pick. They also
19:50drafted him in in the first round Harris that year. So, sort of told you what LA thought of Omar and Hampton the
19:57prospect and elite production as a collegiate, 1500 plus rushing yards in back-to-back seasons on very different UNCC teams. One of the teams was a Drake
20:07May team and then the other team was Omarian Hampton stepping up and being the focal point and not missing a beat.
20:13I'm into Omar and Hampton as well. I think second round he's a potential edge pick. There's definitely some unknown upside there. And we talk about Mike
20:21McDaniel being like a running back whisperer. A lot of that's the Devon Achan uh kind of what we've seen the success with him. But the Raheem Mostard
20:28season, Ryan, it's like, couldn't we also see a scenario where Amarian Hampton just falls in the end zone 15 times and it's like leads the NFL in
20:36rushing scores. I think that's in the realm of possibilities. And then we also love being a year ahead on guys. You
20:41talked about Genty. We're talking about Hampton. There's a chance that if Ryan and I are podcasting together next July, we're talking about like do we take
20:50Hampton or Genty with like the fourth overall pick in our draft this year. So, bet on good players with with good
20:56offensive coordinators and a lot of times that pays off. Uh, Lad's a little bit more interesting for me. I I've talked about him in previous shows and
21:05sort of I like him structurally in that range, but I'm not like reaching for him. But I think you're right that if
21:10things fall his way, there's going to be a big ADP winner. Um, that's not just in the backfield here. There's going to be
21:17and Lad's, you know, really the the highest pedigreed pass catcher in this offense and it's not even close. So, he's probably the best bet to lead the
21:24team in targets and catches. Just how much of of will that will that impact?
21:29And I the only thing I worry about with Vlad is the other pass catchers going around him sort of the opportunity cost
21:35to draft him. Do I miss out on some guys? And >> one of the guys that you have listed that goes close enough to Lad and easily
21:42the oldest player we've talked about here is Terry McLaren. Now, McLaren is is in an offense led now by David Blau.
21:50So, we've got another younger coordinator. Uh, you know, sort of we we've got a kind of a trend here.
21:56Baltimore with Declan Doyle, David Blau in Washington, these like 30-year-old guys. Um, where are you at on Terry McLaren and the sort of value that he
22:05presents for a really big 2026 fantasy football season?
22:10>> Uh, I I short answer, I'm into him. Uh, and I just want to go back and agree with you a little bit that yeah, the
22:16best the best case against Lad is the opportunity cost. There are so many good wide receivers in this range. I fully
22:22agree. I I'm like through in the process of sorting through like exactly the one or two that I want to pick for anatomy
22:28of a league winner for my draft guide.
22:30Like I I agree that's like a really tough spot to get right in drafts this year and like very uh difficult and
22:36impactful potentially. So with you there. Uh but yeah, to make the case for McLaren, uh David Blau as the new play
22:45caller is replacing Cliff Kingsbury. I I talked a lot about kind of this transition in the article, but the sort
22:55of TLDDR is I think that Blau is still going to play relatively fast. I don't think the pace is going to come down a
23:02ton here. I think that the commander defense is still going to be a little rough. So, there could still be like an
23:09outcome here where there's a lot of dropbacks in this offense just because they're trailing a lot. uh kind of regardless of what Dan Quinn wants as
23:16the head coach that says, "Well, we need to run the ball more and play slower to help the defense." I just kind of think
23:21they're not going to be able to do that.
23:23Uh so that's at least intriguing for fantasy if if we get just a ton of drop back volume uh off of a bad defense,
23:32right? Uh and going from Kingsbury to Blau, we enter this world where Terry McLaren isn't going to have to just be
23:39stuck on the left side on every single route anymore. Kingsbury was notorious for this, just sticking his wide receiver one on the left side of the
23:48field, basically never moving him around. And we see like an efficiency loss for McLaren and for DeAndre Hopkins
23:57uh in Arizona with this, right? We see every like on the very few occasions that they're allowed to actually move and go somewhere else on the formation,
24:06uh these guys yard per outr run, fantasy point per outr run efficiency just massively increases, right? because it that's just not really how most NFL or
24:14modern NFL offenses operate. It like they move guys around. They don't just stick one guy on the left side the entire time. So, we are hopefully going
24:22to have McLaren moving around the formation more. Blau has literally said as much that he's going to move McLaren around more than he did last year. And
24:30McLaren, the last time we saw him healthy, was already one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL. Uh 15.8 8 fantasy points per game in his last
24:39healthy season in 2024. Uh over the past two years, so including a ton of time with Marcus Mariota and injured Jaden
24:48Daniels, he's the wide receiver 10 by fantasy points per route run. And ultimately, we get Debo Samuel leaving this offense. That is the most designed
24:59targets in the NFL, uh courtesy of Kingsbury leaving this offense. So, even more opportunities available for their number one receiver in McLaren. And you
25:08can paint the picture pretty easily that maybe it's not crazy that David Blau says he wants to give 10 targets per
25:13game to Terry McLaren. Like that that's a quote I want to reject like off out of hand cuz that's like, yeah, okay, cool.
25:20But what else is this team going to do?
25:22Who where else are those 10 targets going to go? So, I kind of believe that honestly. Uh, last year McLaren was
25:29fourth in the NFL in first downs per outr run. That's a really big efficiency stat that I found is strong in terms of
25:36predicting future league winners. Uh so I yeah, there's just so many reasons to like McLaren and be in on him in this
25:43offense. I might like pose it back to you uh cuz I I know you're pretty big on him as well. Would you be would you
25:51pause if Stefon Diggs gets signed by this commander team or if another one of these veterans gets signed? Like how how
25:57much of your love for McLaren is just based on the lack of target competition?
26:01I I kind of go back and forth. I think I still might like him just as much even if the Commanders were to sign a Stefon
26:07Diggs just because it well yeah creates uh just hopefully like a more functional more efficient offense. Yeah. I mean I think it's a really interesting
26:16conversation. I think that the idea that McLaren could have an otherworldly for him target total. Could we see a 145 target, 150 target season for Terry
26:27McLaren based on the lack of teammate target uh target competition? That sort of narrative would would take a back seat. Stfan Diggs has never had lower
26:36than like a 20% target share even like the last two seasons. And I'd imagine he'd probably step in with maybe a 21%
26:44target share this year in Washington. So it would sort of limit the ceiling case with targets. But in terms of the
26:50offense and like the the pie growing larger as a whole, Stefon Diggs is a massive improvement over and I like Antonio Williams. I know you do too,
26:58Ryan. But still like a third round rookie wide receiver being the number two target or Chicka Conquo who I I like. I think he's a fine target sort of
27:06at ADP. Both of those guys being like the number two target versus a refined receiver like Stfan Diggs who averaged like 12 points per game last year in in
27:15New England and had over a thousand receiving yards. um certainly would make the offense better. So, I think like the touchdown upside for McLaren could go up
27:22a notch. Um but I think he becomes more of a a little bit more of a structural pick than hey, I'm going to get this
27:29league winner at this range. But I still think he'd be fine. I mean, he's priced right right now at wide receiver 23 on
27:35underdog. If he falls to like wide receiver 26 um because of a Stfan Diggs signing, then I think it becomes it
27:44sounds like a close enough, but it's a little bit more of a kind of a micro edge there. So, I think it it's really a
27:50the dream season for him probably takes a back seat, but the chance for him to do exactly what he did in 2024 in terms
27:56of scoring a bunch of touchdowns, uh, that narrative could be there. So, it wouldn't kill Terry McLaren by all means. It would just make us like Jaden
28:04Daniels uh a little bit more. And I think we both like Jaden Daniels a lot.
28:08We'll get Ryan's quarterback targets right at the end of the show.
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30:06I've had a lot of smart people on the show like yourself. Um, and Jacob Gibbs, Pat Karine, Derek Brown, uh, Nelson
30:14Susa, myself. We're We all like Jaylen Wadd. Everybody likes Jaylen Waddle at 80 right now. Um, where are you at on
30:21Jaylen Wadd? another player who not only has a new offensive coordinator with the team, but is also on a new team himself
30:28after coming over in that big trade this off seasonason where Denver sent a firstrounder, a third rounder, and a fourth rounder to acquire him from
30:35Miami.
30:36Yeah, I I mean, I really like him, too.
30:38Everybody likes Jaylen Wald at ADP.
30:40We're going to Yeah, we'll have to see where his ADP is at in a couple weeks from now and if that's going to change
30:45because everyone can't like him at ADP.
30:46Surely it'll move at some point, right?
30:49Uh but yeah, for Waddle, it's pretty simple for me. Uh over the past handful of seasons, he's just been one of the
30:56most efficient per routeout receivers in the NFL. Uh eighth in yards per out runs since 2022 on a fairly low first read
31:07target share below 24%. So not like so not like an alpha target share, but a really alpha yard per route run
31:14efficiency. And that's kind of what we saw with guys like George Pickkins last year uh before he moved to Dallas uh
31:23just gets into a higher volume offense and completely smashes. Right. I think there's like a pretty similar case to be made for Waddle there. Uh just because
31:33the Broncos uh Bonick led the NFL in dropbacks last year. Everything we're hearing from new play caller Davis Webb is that the primary reason he's taking
31:42over for Shawn Peyton is just that they want to get the plays in faster. Uh so the Knicks can go into the no huddle
31:48even more, get even more plays off. So Knicks could just lead the NFL in drop backs again. Uh and Wadd could lead the
31:56NFL in routes. Uh if if Jaylen Waddle at his efficiency from the past couple of seasons had run as many routes as
32:04Courtland Sutton did last year, for example, he would have been a mid-range wide receiver one by fancy points per game. Uh he just has been so efficient.
32:12It's a Shawn Payeyton offense where he could also steal some of kind of the design target work from guys like Troy
32:20Franklin, Marvin Mims that have been uh getting some of that like Shawn Payeyton designed workload over the past couple years. Easily Wadd could step in and do
32:29that. He averages over 10 yards after the catch per reception uh on throws behind the line of scrimmage since 2022.
32:36So on on average a first down on first and 10, that's pretty damn good. Uh, so that that could be like an extra couple
32:43of PPR points per game on top of Waddle statline. I yeah, I just really think he's a great pick where he's going. I I
32:51I would put him up in the tier like with Alad Mcconkey with Terry McLaren. Like the these are the guys that you kind of
32:58have to sort through and decide between uh just like right in that amazing wide receiver pocket this year. And yeah, he
33:05he's right there with him for me.
33:08>> Yeah. And it's interesting because I talked about uh Wadd, you know, a couple weeks ago where it felt like there was
33:13all this resistance for him in ADP, but the market's starting to shift a little bit. We saw him pass Luther Burton on
33:20underdog, which I think is significant.
33:22Burden's wide receiver 22 and Waddles wide receiver 21. Could like the next guy to go be like maybe a Tedo McMillan.
33:31When you look at like a Garrett Wilson next to a Jaylen Wadd, are you willing to push Wadd above Wilson, a player
33:38where we have question marks about the offense, but certainly not uh the target volume? It's been very consistent and Wilson scored very very highly to start
33:46last season. Just sort of your conviction level with uh with a Waddle and McMillan for that matter too, Ryan.
33:51You throw him in that that mix.
33:54>> Yeah, I would take Wadd ahead of both of those guys. Um, but I'm probably a little bit lower on McMillan and on
34:00Garrett Wilson. Uh, just in general. Uh, I think both of them are awesome players to to be totally clear. Both like great
34:06dynasty guys. But yeah, when I when I write this play callers article and I am just like, okay, uh, Frank Reich is one
34:14of the worst play callers by adjusted net yards per attempt over the last 5 years. Um, he has never had like an
34:22ascendant wide receiver one. He's had one00yard receiver in eight seasons as a head coach or an offensive coordinator.
34:30Uh, and that was when he had Andrew Luck and prime Ty Hilton. So, I don't know. I just don't totally see the upside for
34:38Garrett Wilson. Same with a Teteroa McMillan stuck in a Bryce Young offense.
34:42Uh what while I think that Dave Canales and his new play caller Bradzik uh certainly do some good things in the run
34:49game, they do some like sharp uh like analytics based things right now. They just are not going to be high volume
34:58like drop back offenses uh with Bryce Young. That's just what we've seen from him over and over his entire uh career
35:04in the NFL. So it's just really hard to get in on McMillan as his pass catcher.
35:10Like, yeah, McMillan can finish as a mid-range wide receiver, too. He can meet ADP for sure, but you need like some you need something to change
35:18really. You need a different quarterback to come in for whatever reason for him to hit like a mid-range wide receiver one type of ceiling. And I I think
35:27that's just accessible to Wadd uh without any changes or any other assumptions this year.
35:34>> Yeah, I I I I really like Wadd a lot.
35:36and he sort of falls in that range of drafts where if you're stuck in that range, you can just take Wadd. I think
35:42he's going to beat his ADP. Just how highly can he finish, I think that remains to be seen. But he's one of
35:47these players that feels like he's being drafted sort of at his floor. Um I mean there's a chance he could be a low-end
35:53wide receiver one this year. I don't think that's that crazy. One player who's going ahead of Wadd Ryan, another wide receiver to talk about. We open the
36:00show talking about uh Derk Henry and how could Z Flowers look in this now Declan Doyle offense in in Baltimore. Flowers
36:10ended the season last year on on a tear.
36:13Scored very well in like the fantasy playoffs. Um he's had been snake bitten throughout his career on touchdown scoring and he's also been sort of a cap
36:22target ceiling guy. They never target him in the end zone. It's like those end zone targets just don't exist. Is that
36:29something you think we could see change this year? Um, is he set up for maybe a peak usage season as a pro?
36:38>> I think he could be. Yeah. Uh, on the like targeting him in the end zone thing. We we have seen that change for
36:45players in a big way that in a way that really impacts fantasy football. We saw it with Trey McBride just last year like
36:51that was the guy that back since high school he was never really a touchdown scorer and that that immediately changed uh when he got Jacobe Rouset under
36:59center right so like the those kind of like hypersp specific usage narratives I never buy like too much into uh but will
37:07what I will say for flowers is pretty consistently over his career we have seen him benefit primarily from play action uh he's been the most efficient
37:18receiver in the NFL by yards per out on play action over the last two years that's ahead of Pukanakua that's ahead
37:24of Rashi Rice that's ahead of like every per route yard per route run darling on play action and what we can expect from
37:33Declan Doyle I think is an increase in the play action usage for the Ravens uh Lamar has also always been one of the
37:42NFL's best playaction passers makes a ton of sense there's a lot of gravity there uh in a backfield with him and
37:48Derk Henry of course the defense is going to have to bite and commit to the run a little bit helps out uh when you
37:54fake the play action and drop back and can throw to save a flowers. That all of that just logically makes sense. Uh and
38:00also we've seen we or we saw Lamar's play action drop back rate crater last year. I don't know if you blame it on
38:08Monin or if you say, "Hey, he was injured so they they were probably running their offense a little bit differently." But yeah, he filled the
38:1420th in play action drop back rate last year. has been top 10 every other season of his career. Also averaged over 20
38:21fantasy points per game every season of his career. Like the Ravens offense just is always cooking with play action. And we've seen Declan Doyle uh influence the
38:31play action rates of the 2024 Denver Broncos and of last year's Chicago Bears. Uh there's a great Doyle quote uh talking about Caleb Williams from last
38:40year and his improvement on play action being what really unlocked uh the ceiling for the Bears offense at the end of the year. So I I think that's going
38:48to be like a point of emphasis for Doyle. Uh this is Yeah, it it's just one of the biggest cheat codes. We we see
38:55efficiency come way up uh across the NFL anytime a team is faking with play action. So, uh, and Doyle is just like
39:02one of the poster children, uh, for that, at least in my mind right now. And I think that's huge for Flowers, as I
39:09mentioned, the Yeah. most efficient play action receiver in the league.
39:12>> Yeah, Flowers has a lot a lot of outs to return value this year. So, it's like I'm very open-minded to it, but I feel
39:18like a lot of people are in on Flowers, and the ADP just keeps rising and rising and rising. Um, had this conversation.
39:25Yeah. And and I know like you know you podcast with Jacob Sanderson on Dynasty Points and you know Jacob's all in on on
39:32Z Flowers right now. I had Mike Schop on. We talked about Zay Flowers and like everybody likes him but I mean wide
39:40receiver 14 it feels like he's being drafted in a spot where if he doesn't give you like a top 10 scoring season
39:47it's sort of a it's sort of a failure there especially considering some of the very talented players around him. So like Flowers in or out having to use
39:55like uh the 305 on him in like an FFPC main event. Ryan, >> I think that's fine. I mean, he was over
40:0215 fantasy points per game last year in games with that Lamar started like that.
40:06That's like roughly where he finished last year. I just made a case for him to use even more play action, be even more
40:12efficient this year. You can also always get the outcome where uh if the Ravens do not have one of the lead, which I
40:20think they will to be clear, but if the Ravens aren't one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL, they have to
40:25increase the pass volume. That would also go an in an incredibly long way for Flowers. I like he's succeeded on these
40:32very overall runheavy teams. So, just yeah, I like to keep in mind that if something goes differently, the Ravens ever find themselves trailing more, uh,
40:42there has to be more dropback volume.
40:43Like, that that's massively bullish for Flowers. That's like another really big out to upside for him, even at his ADP, I think. Going a little bit further down
40:53into wide receiver three land, you have Marvin Harrison Jr., who we have Mike Laflur taking over where everybody gets excited when you sort of say Mike Laflur
41:02from from the Rams and then you're like oh and and uh Nathaniel Hackett is like the technically the OC and then we're
41:08like gh but so we'll stick with Laflur on this one and we'll take like a glass half full one. Um is this the year for
41:15Marvin Harrison to take a big leap forward after two very disappointing seasons? He's wide receiver 34 on underdog. we've seen him starting to
41:24trend up in like FFPC and NFC, like a sixthround value in those formats. Um, or is it Michael Wilson? Are we, if
41:33we're searching for wide receiver value in Arizona, is there which player would you be gravitating towards? And are you enthusiastic about either?
41:41>> Yeah, if I'm drafting a Cardinals pass catcher, it is Marvin Harrison Jr.
41:46pretty clearly to me. Uh the reason for that is that we had a sample last year of him out alphaing Trey McBride that ve
41:56that that very few people talk about, but we had three games of Marvin Harrison Jr. uh play playing fully, not not injured, not leaving early or what
42:05have you. Uh with Trey McBride and with Jacobe Brassette as the starter. So three games with all three of those guys
42:12fully on the field. And what we saw in those three games was a 38% first read target share for Marvin Harrison Jr. Uh
42:21ahead of where McBride was in those contests. Would have been a top five mark at the wide receiver position last year. Uh nearly 19 expected fantasy
42:30points per game by volume in that uh range. So of course that's a ton of just drop back volume that is probably not
42:39going to be there for the Cardinals uh this year, right? they had the highest pass rate uh over the past five years in
42:45the NFL. Uh so that that's like hard to expect it to repeat, but relative to McBride, the fact that he's commanding
42:52more targets uh in that sample and and again with Jacobe Brassette like the most tight end obsessed quarterback in the NFL, he like leads everybody in
43:02tight end target rate over his career.
43:04Uh that that's like notable to me. And Harrison is not really being discussed that way still. And I don't think his
43:10ADP really has that especially factored in. Uh like yes, I I think that like the reason he goes in round six and the
43:20reason Michael Wilson goes round eight, round nine or where wherever or like past him is because of the pedigree and people understanding, yeah, this was one
43:29of the best prospects uh to enter the NFL at the wide receiver position over the past 10 years. Like who knows what's
43:34going to happen. Uh, but I think that there's like a Yeah, I just think there's a lot of juice to squeeze there
43:39at around 680p. Uh, where even if uh Harrison isn't the number one target earner on the Cardinals, there's still outs uh that are related to Mike Lafleur
43:51in terms of he has said that he views his offenses as the receivers being more interchangeable uh than maybe they were
43:59for the Cardinals in the past with Drew Ping, right? Uh it's not just going to be one guy stuck at the X, one guy stuck
44:06at the Z. Uh that contrary to some quotes that got aggregated on that earlier in the summer, that's like not at all what he was saying. He's very
44:14>> We talked I I remember talking about it's it was it was unbelievable. So it was like, you know, the breakdown people
44:21were just like running with like one guy's take on it and then we watched like the actual uh like Laflur quotes
44:27and they were so different. Um, I think, you know, that's a good takeaway from Ryan there is, you know, a lot of times
44:33what you see on X is not telling like the entire story. And it's very accessible if you want to actually watch
44:38the the coach give like his full quote.
44:40You're not asking we're not asking you to watch half an hour. You could watch a threeinut uh response to something that
44:45gets whittleled down into like two sentences by an aggregator and people just run with it.
44:50>> Yeah, it's it's a little crazy. Um, but yeah, sorry, just off of that tangent.
44:55Uh, I I think that of any year in his career, this is going to be the best in terms of just being used in more places
45:03on the field for Marvin Harrison Jr., just more diverse usage. I don't think he's going to be stuck to the outside
45:08the entire time. That's not at all what I've gotten this off season. Uh, and that could really improve his fantasy outlook in in a real way. Uh, or just
45:19let him uh just kind of reach more of a ceiling as a year three breakout. So, I I'm just kind of open to that case. I
45:25think if you say Ryan, I don't want to draft any Cardinals, uh, then that's fair enough. But I I would also say like
45:32Mike Laflur has done this with not so great offenses and not so great personnel before. Uh, 12 games with the Jets with Mike White and Joe Flacco
45:41starting, those teams averaged over 300 passing yards per game. Like, it it's not a foregone conclusion to me that this is just going to be a slow, boring,
45:48runheavy offense. uh especially if the defense is as rough as it was last year.
45:54Like this could be a scenario where Lafleur has something to prove, wants to stuff the box scores like he was doing
46:00with the Jets to try to kind of point out, hey, it's Zach Wilson, man. It's not me. Like there's totally a world we
46:06could live in where that's happening and it is a at least a if not an efficient like at least a high volume productive
46:13passing offense. And just yeah, just for that scenario, Marv is like my favorite bet at cost.
46:20One other player you wrote about in the article that I thought was interesting is you were very bullish on Chase Brown
46:26as a very strong second round target.
46:29And one thing you talked about was the potential for more under center snaps from Cincinnati this year with Joe Burrow. Uh Brown averaged 21 points per
46:39game in games where Joe Burrow played last year. Um he's just absolutely printed the last two years in terms of returning value at ADP. Where are you at
46:49on Brown this year? How enthusiastic are about are you about him? And do you think he could potentially be a league
46:54winner?
46:55>> I think he can. Yeah, he is in among round two running backs probably my favorite target at ADP. Like I'm back
47:02and forth on whether I'm going to rank him or Omar and Hampton higher in my final reddraft rankings. It's like very
47:08close for me. I'm very into both. But Brown to me is almost safer just because yeah, anytime Burrow has been on the
47:14field, he has been an elite high-end fantasy RB1. He has done it on like these insane 90% snapshare CMC light type of workloads. He has done it on
47:25kind of like more normal workloads with some AJ Pine mixing in where the efficiency actually comes up uh when he's not being fed 20 plus carries per
47:34game. Go figure that makes sense for most NFL running backs. So I it just kind of any scenario in which Burrow's
47:40on the field I I think Brown is great.
47:42Uh and yeah, with this under center angle, uh for those unaware, Joe Burrow has been one of the lowest quarterbacks in the league in terms of taking drop
47:51backs from under center over his career.
47:55Uh and you I think you can argue either way for a player like Burrow whether it's actually better to be in the
48:01shotgun or under center. uh for him to like see the defense versus turn his back and uh facilitate the play action
48:08game from under center. Uh but I I think clearly it would be better for Chase Brown or for any running back in the
48:15Bengals offense if they run more from under center just because that marries the run in the pass game more effectively. Uh it just makes it harder
48:23for the defense to know what you're going to do on the play as you as you line up. And we we see across the league
48:30uh running like yeah run game efficiency comes up whenever you get under center.
48:35We see that for Chase Brown uh over his career. Uh 5.1 yards per carry from under center uh per Jared Small uh who
48:45whose work I linked in the article who had some awesome breakdowns of this. But yeah, I do think that it even if not for
48:53Burrow and the pass catchers, it if it's not like an obvious efficiency gain, it and it might be to be clear, it it
48:59generally is across the league, I think clearly it will be for Chase Brown in the run game. So he he's someone I'm
49:04really excited about in round two. Yeah.
49:07Yeah. He's he's just such a value there.
49:09And you know, I have Hampton ahead of him. It feels like that could end up being incorrect. It's like Brown were
49:15just gotten so used to talking about him of being like an opportunistic, you know, smash play at running back. Like talk about like the pedigree of players
49:24and he was a day three pick and I think that's sort of like stuck by him. But the situation is absolutely perfect and
49:30he's been so good and a lot of these players we talk about, we want them to take these big steps forward as
49:36receivers. Chase Brown had 69 catches last year. So like him taking another step forward would put him into what 80 catches and then you're talking about a
49:45potential RB1 overall range guy. So it's like Chase Brown. It's it's wild how structurally perfect he is whenever he falls to like 21 22 overall. You get
49:57access to like a Puka Nua and you're able to recover at running back with Chase Brown. So really interesting value there. Uh let's talk about tight end.
50:05two players you circled in this article uh with new play callers. You've got Dallas, Rashan Manian. Uh and then you've got Sam Laaporta with Drew Pig.
50:14Uh where are you at on these two guys?
50:16Are they players that fantasy managers should be targeting right now at the tight end position?
50:22>> Yeah, I'm really interested in both of them. Uh for GDDR, it's much more of an overall Eagles offense type of take
50:30where I think the like the overwhelming narrative right now around the Eagles offense and Jaylen Herz is that this isn't going to work basically, right? Uh
50:41Shawn Manion coming in wants to have Herz uh get under center more, use more play action, throw over the middle of
50:47the field, all of these kind of Mick Shanahan types of things for an offense, right? And yeah, Jaylen Herz has one of
50:55the lowest middle-of the- field target rates of any quarterback over the past five years. I like I get that. I get
51:01that he hasn't thrown to the middle of the field much uh over his career, but he's been very efficient whenever he's
51:09done it. Uh second in adjusted net yards per attempt and EPA per drop back when targeting the middle of the field since
51:162021. That's pretty damn good. I I look tried to look into a bunch of different ways to determine like is this selection
51:23bias? Is he just throwing to wide open receivers? I didn't think that was the case as I dug deeper into the data. So I
51:30I really think we that maybe we're just all overthinking the Eagles offense. I think maybe it actually is just more efficient than it was last year where it
51:39was very stagnant. Uh AJ Brown, of course, they don't have anymore, but he was also not at 100% and certainly not
51:46at 100% job satisfaction at any point last year. So, I I really think there's a world where this Eagles passing game
51:53is just better than it was last year.
51:56Uh, and and Goddard is a clear beneficiary of that, where he's going in like the really the late rounds for a
52:02tight end. You can kind of wait for a while and draft Dallas Goddard and he's just like one of the clearest guys that
52:09Herz has targeted over the middle of the field before uh and should easily just be in a full-time role. uh his
52:17efficiency has also come way up anytime AJ Brown's not been on the field over his career. Like there's just so many
52:22reasons to think that if there's a step forward statistically at least for Dallas GDart this year. So he's been one of my favorite tight ends to target. Uh
52:31and with Leaporta, we have Drew Petting as the new play caller for the Lions.
52:36And the biggest thing to me there is I think it's just more routes available for tight ends. Uh we've seen Trey
52:42McBride hit uh at least a 75% route share in something like his last 27 consecutive games with petting, right?
52:51He just uses tight ends more uh including sometimes multiple tight end sets. uh just getting Leaporta up to like well beyond that kind of 70 75%
53:02route threshold where he's a legit full-time player that unlocks a ton of upside for him because he's averaged nearly 16 fantasy points per game uh in
53:12his games with that amount of route volume over his career. Uh it it's really just been some of course like some injury related luck uh and things
53:22like that that have taken him out of games early. Uh and just the Lions offense uh really like running more through the two wide receivers of
53:31course. Not to say that that those guys are going to be hurt or come off the field, but just having Leaporta on the
53:36field in a full-time role I think unlocks way more upside than like his tight depending on the platform. I've he's anywhere from the tight end seven
53:44to the tight end nine at different points this offseason. Like I think there's just way more upside than that implies.
53:51Yeah, there's like infora falls and falls and falls. It's it's uh it's becoming just like a Sam Laaporta value time. The back concerns me a little bit,
54:00but you're talking about a guy who had 17 touchdowns his first two seasons as a pro, had the tight end one overall
54:06season. So yeah, Leaporta is really really interesting. and Goddard. If Lemon sort of slow out the gate, could we see Goddard take on a little bit more
54:15heavier usage than maybe we're used to seeing with him? Um, we know he he ran pure in terms of the touchdown scoring
54:21department last year. Uh, Goddard's just priced right to sort of return value.
54:26Uh, he's down, you know, in that tight end 15 range. Talk about drafting players at their floors. If he stays healthy the entire season, I think he'll
54:34beat that quite easily. So, really interesting players right there. Ryan, this was awesome today. Before we get you out of here, give us a few. You
54:42don't have to give us all, but give us maybe three or four quarterback uh values you like right now. Guys that you
54:47think are going to be, you know, foundational quarterback targets for you when you get into draft season here.
54:54>> Yeah, I mean, I'm still, to be clear, still debating between a couple of these guys cuz some of them are just mutually
54:59exclusive at the QB position, right? Uh you can you can only have like one or at most two late round quarterbacks that
55:05you're into. But yeah, there's a lot of great options this year. So, to give a few names, uh Kyler Murray, of course,
55:11is really, really interesting. Uh 5.8 rush attempts per game last year, which was the most he's posted since 2022. He ran a lot more last year than anybody
55:22remembers. Uh you put him into a Kevin Oonnell offense where we've seen Okonnell with all of these kind of veteran quarterbacks. So, aside from
55:32like disaster JJ McCarthy, uh he's gotten over 18 fantasy points per game out of Nick Mullins, Josh Dobs, Carson Wentz over the years, uh like that this
55:42could just be an an awesome like late round target, like final round of your like home reddraft league. Just click Kyler Murray and have that be your plan
55:51at quarterback, I think is compelling.
55:53Uh, another guy that's interesting is Bon Knicks. for some of the reasons I laid out earlier. I just think the drop
56:00back volume could continue to be excellent. Uh he has finished as a low-end QB1 each of his first two years in the league and he's drafted well
56:10behind that. He adds Jaylen Wadd. The efficiency could come up. He could just get better as a player. So, he's someone
56:16that I kind of have my eye on. Uh, and then Malik Willis is I I think maybe the most intriguing super late round
56:24quarterback. Uh, just because of course the rushing has been awesome for him whenever he has been in like a starting role. Seven rush attempts per game, 58
56:34rushing yards per game. Uh, in his three starts with the Packers, 23.6 fantasy points per start uh would be behind only
56:42Josh Allen over the last couple of seasons. So there there's clear rushing upside there. He's also been great from an EPA per dropback perspective, too.
56:50Uh, and I I mean, hey, our last couple of small sample EPA darlings were rookie Brock Pury and Sam Darnold with the
56:58Panthers in 2022. So, that has been like a predictive stat in terms of finding guys that can turn into actual long-term
57:07starters in the league, right? So maybe that's some signal that Malik Willis is actually really good and that the Dolphins offense uh could could be good
57:15enough for him to just be a mid-range QB1 on top of the rushing. Uh so yeah, those are some of the names I'm kind of
57:21swirling around. I I don't have a final stance on any of them yet. You'll have to read Anatomy of a League winner in my
57:26draft guide for that.
57:27>> Oh, nice professional uh professional segue there to your article, but definitely check out all of Ryan's work.
57:33It's absolute fire. Uh, look for Ryan at some point to return to to this podcast cuz I podcast with Ryan probably 50 plus
57:40times at this point. Uh, always you Ryan, you're always well prepared.
57:44Always have great stuff to bring to the table. Uh, stick with us here at Roto Wire. We're going to be dropping shows
57:48like this all throughout July and August. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.
