0:06ADP risers and fallers. We're talking about players that fantasy managers need to know about that are moving up and down in ADP as we're getting into the
0:15middle of July. This data is coming from the FFPC main event. our friends over at Fantasy Mojo displaying sort of this
0:24real-time FFPC main event um content over there where we've had a number of drafts where this is a $2,000 entry
0:34draft where you're playing for a milliondoll grand prize. And usually we see these drafts really taking flight in August, but there are more and more of
0:44these drafts that have gone off the board in the month of July. We've got nearly 15 of them um during the month of
0:50July here and we're getting a ton of actionable data that can help us prepare for our drafts throughout the rest of
0:56the summer. I'm going to be drafting an FFPC main event this Wednesday evening on Rotoire YouTube and you can also check it out on the podcast. So, I'll be
1:07competing in that one. That's going to be a lot of fun. I did a slow main event draft with Dan Williamson uh a couple of
1:14weeks ago. That was a good one. uh it feels like so long ago. Uh but we did that one a couple weeks ago. So, this
1:20will be my second main event, my first live one this week. But we've [snorts] got a ton of information that we can
1:25look at with some players moving up significantly and a couple of them falling from the June drafts comparing to again this July data. So, we're
1:35looking at the last two weeks again courtesy from Fantasy Mojo. And let's start off right at the top. We're looking at the end of the first round
1:43and you have a cluster of running backs that have sort of settled in and really these three sort of keep leaprogging one
1:51another and sort of passing each other by and then all of a sudden like one of them's at the top of this little tier
1:57but it's an absolutely a tier. You've got the big two at the top of drafts.
2:01You got Jir Gibbs, Bejian Robinson.
2:03Christian McAffrey is kind of his own thing in the middle of the first round.
2:07Then you get to the back end of the first round and this is when it gets interesting. You have Jonathan Taylor
2:13who is going side by side with Ashton Genty and James Cook. Now Taylor right now is at the top of this uh little trio
2:20of running backs, but if you listen to this pod a couple days from now, the the situation might have changed and one of
2:27these guys might have leapfrogged each other. These guys are neck and neck.
2:31It's a very interesting group because you've got Jonathan Taylor who is obviously we don't really need to talk about Jonathan Taylor. He's a guy who
2:39we've seen finish as the RB1 overall and then last year he was scoring at an incredible rate really up until Philip
2:46Rivers took over and then it sort of tailed off a little bit at the end. But Jonathan Taylor was an absolute
2:51challenger last year for RB1 overall.
2:53Then you got James Cook who had 1,600 plus rushing yards last year. ton of enthusiasm for what his role could look
3:00like this year with Joe Brady his first year as head coach. Little bit of optimism, at least with me, that he
3:06could catch a few more passes this year than the last two seasons. And he's in again one of the league's top offenses
3:12overall in Buffalo playing next to Josh Allen. Then you got Ashton Genty and I think there's a ton of enthusiasm and a
3:19ton of sharp money coming in in formats like the FFPC and NFC for Genty pushing him up into the consideration from like
3:27the 108 on. Genty is in a really interesting situation because you're going to see a potential Clint Kubak bump. We all saw sort of collectively
3:38how effective Zack Charbanet and Kenneth Walker were together last year. if you can sort of ext extrapolate what they did and take away a a second back sort
3:48of really cutting into one another's usage and kind of tell yourself a story that that could be Ashton Genty in a
3:55bellcow role where he not only is seeing a massive share of the rush attempts but he also has a chance to catch 65 plus
4:04passes out of the backfield and really presents that balance where I think Ashton Genty presents a little bit more of an upside receiving profile file than
4:13we have with Jonathan Taylor and James Cook. And I know there's been some optimism about James Cook's receiving role, but it is theoretical with Genty.
4:22We saw it last year. So really, these three have formed a trio of backs in the tail end of round one. I think an actual
4:29takeaway for us is you're going to get access to one of these guys towards that one that one two turn. So, if you're
4:37drafting at like the 11 or the 12, potentially even the 10 hole, there's a chance one of these guys comes back to
4:43you and goes at the 202 even. Maybe we'll see a 203 landing. So, there's going to be some interesting builds with
4:51these three backs, but they have absolutely settled in as their own tier.
4:56Continue talking about it. Let's talk about Coloulston Lovelin. And Coloulston Lovelin has been an absolute rocket ship to the moon in terms of all formats this
5:05year. It's Brock Bowers, it's Trey McBride, and then you've got Coloulston Lovelin. And Coloulston Lovelin is pretty much living in the second round
5:13of FFPC drafts. Like Trey McBride is is in his own little mini tier. Brock Bowers is settled in as like a top six
5:21pick in most of these FFPC main event drafts. Trey McBride going somewhere at the very beginning of the second round.
5:27Sometimes goes late first, but you've got Coloulston Lovelin who settled in as a lockedin second round pick. Now, you you see him go as late as like the 301,
5:37but I'm guessing that's a it's a one-off. Most of the drafts that I've been in and I've seen, Coulson Lovelin's living in round two, we've seen him get
5:45up as high as the 205 in FFPC main events, really, really uh interesting stuff from him. And it's not just from
5:54FFPC main event drafters. There's enthusiasm with Colston Lovelin in pretty much every single format right now. In Dynasty, they have a $2,500
6:04Rotoviz FFPC trilex draft, which is like a start 10 format. Like, if you're not a Dynasty manager, it it doesn't really
6:12matter sort of, but if you are a Dynasty manager, it's a start 10 format where it's tight end premium, you start three
6:18wide receivers, you've got two flexes, it's super flex, and in a superflex format, Coloulston Lovelin went at the 203 in this trilex startup draft. I
6:29mean, you're talking about Coloulston Lovelin is a rocket ship to the moon.
6:34Yesterday's price is not today's price.
6:37It It's just Colston Lovelin gets more and more expensive. It's the summer of Loveland and this is a player that is
6:45going to continue to rise up. There's people that are walking into their draft saying it's Coulson Lovelin for me. I'm going to take him in the second round if
6:53he's OTC. It's that same sort of level of enthusiasm for Lovelin in round two that we're seeing really for like Bowers
7:00in round one. When it comes to FFPC, Trey McBride is actually kind of the the guy that is people are kind of viewing
7:06as a structural pick. I think Trey McBride is is actually getting a little bit underrated in FFPC drafts. He's a player that I will consider uh when I'm
7:15drafting in the FFPC main event on Wednesday night live on Roto Wire YouTube and also check that one out on the podcast. Like McBride's falling into
7:23a range where I think he's becoming sort of an pretty easy click even with fears about the offense. Talking about a
7:29player who had the most catches in NFL history at the tight end position in consecutive seasons and also set the record for the most in a single
7:39season last year. Even if there's quarterback issues, I mean Trey McBride's almost like too big to fail in tight end premium. I I mean I say that
7:46with a with kind of like a little guarded optimism. It's sort of a is Trey McBride sort of quarterback proof at
7:53this point. The guy just catches pass after pass after pass. Maybe the ceiling outcome is definitely not where my guy Brock Bowers is, but I think McBride is
8:01in a decent spot. He's getting a little bit beat up by the community. But at the same time, Coloulston Lovelin can
8:06outscore Trey McBride and he's going behind him. And he's also structurally looking like a really fun pick. So keep an eye on Coloulston Lovelin. He's not
8:14the only tight end though. we have a tight end four that's sort of settled in as their own tier. And again, this is
8:211.5 point tight end premium. So, if you're drafting in a PPR setting like NFC or a sleeper league or an ESPN
8:29league, something like that, you could expect to see Tyler Warren in like the fifth or sixth round. But in tight end
8:35premium 1.5 point tight end premium scoring FFPC drafts in this very expensive FFPC main event format, you're seeing Trey McBride really settle in as
8:45the tight end 4. And what's interesting is we've now seen a Trey McBride second round appearance. He one one time went
8:54at the 212 in these FFPCM events and I think we could see that maybe a little bit more often where it's a huge gap
9:01between Tyler Warren and where we're seeing the Tucker Craft, Harold Fannon, Kyle Pittz tier. So those guys and then Leaporta is essentially in that tier as
9:11well. So you've got the the group of four tight ends between tight end five and tight end eight. Those guys are
9:18going off the board really at the late fifth. You're seeing Tyler Warren, his average ADP is the mid third, but again,
9:26we're not seeing him fall out of the third round ever. And we're we have now seen him make a second round appearance.
9:33I think that there's a lot of enthusiasm with Tyler Warren drafters that they think they're getting sort of a Trey McBride light, a player that can lead
9:42his team in targets and take a big leap forward. So really both of those guys who were drafted in the top 15 picks in
9:49the the 2025 NFL draft, Warren and Lovelin, who are going to forever be tethered together because they were drafted so closely in the NFL draft are
9:58both being steamed way way way up the board. So there's a ton of enthusiasm for Tyler Warren, a ton of enthusiasm
10:04for Coloulston Loveland as well. Keeping it going, there is a ton of marketplace fear when it comes to Jeremiah Love. And
10:13in the NFC, you've already seen him fall as far as like the occasional fourth round uh showing. Like again, that's a
10:20wide receiver heavy format, but the $350 entry drafts in the NFC, we've seen Jeremiah Love fall into the fourth round occasionally.
10:31That's wild. I mean, if you've been drafting for a long time, a guy who gets uh top 10 NFL draft capital at the
10:38running back position, there's usually a huge bull run and optimism when it comes to ADP in drafts sort of no matter what.
10:48We saw last year Ashton Genty going inside of round one really at the one-two turn. And then you had obviously years past guys like Zeke that was a
10:57different situation, a different team, but Zeke going super high. You had Saquon Barkley going super high. You even go with a guy like Naji Harris who
11:06wasn't a top 10 pick but he was a first round pick. He was going super high.
11:10There's been so many situations where these guys steam up. But with Jeremiah Love, there is absolutely fear in the marketplace. Love is a really
11:19interesting player, but he's falling now into a round three average ADP. He's going somewhere in that 3034 range. And
11:29what's interesting is he's going a few spots behind Derrick Henry, which is not shocking, but you are seeing Bree Hall neckandneck with Jeremiah Love. And I
11:40wouldn't be surprised if over the next couple weeks we see Bree Hall leapfrog Jeremiah Love. Now, there's still a little bit of a gap between Jeremiah
11:48Love and like the running back 15 through 18 range. Like, there's a ton of resistance. Drafters are not going to let him fall down into like the Josh
11:57Jacobs, Kyron Williams, Travante Williams, Travis ETN uh range. There's still too much unknown upside, too much talent. But you are going to see some
12:05drafts where Jeremiah Love falls. We've seen him go as low as the 308 in some of these FFPC main events. Like, it's just
12:13wild to me. And again, check out this ADP over at fantasymojo.com. I'm pretty much over there all the time. It's a
12:20great site, especially if you play FFPC, but if you're not playing FFPC, just go check it out. Really cool stuff on
12:26there. fantasymojo.com. It's where I'm getting all this data from. And Jeremiah Love though, like I don't know, it just feels very weird where we talked about
12:35Trey McBride where he's falling in drafts. Everybody is fearful of the Arizona Cardinals. I think the quarterback situation is terrifying to
12:44some drafters, but there is one Cardinal that's moving up. We'll talk about him a little bit later, but Jeremiah Love just
12:50sort of sitting there next to Bree Hall, this electric talent, and you're getting him in the third round. So to me,
12:58Jeremiah Love when he starts to fall, I immediately have made him sort of a guy that I'm going to consider drafting
13:04because I think it's a bet on talent situation, bet on the receiving profile situation. And when we talk about a format like the FFPC main event, it's a
13:14can I get Jeremiah Love red-hot to towards the end of the season? Can we ramp him up throughout the season? A lot
13:21of times we'll see that with these exceptionally talented younger players.
13:24I get the fear. Nobody wants to see Carson Beck back back back there. But I think Jeremiah Love, it's really a bet
13:31on talent situation and it's a bet on Tyler Algier not being as much of a factor as I think some people are are
13:38fear fe fearful of. So I'm sort of of the opinion that Jeremiah Love can overcome his con his situation and we
13:46take him with the upside bet especially when he falls to like the second half of the third round. I get the fear in the
13:52marketplace though. Carson Beck situation is a scary one. One other player we're seeing rising up and really settle in is Z Flowers. There was
14:01situations where we would see Zay Flowers in like very early drafts falling. He's settled in where he's going in the early to mid third round.
14:09He's settled in as the wide receiver 14 overall. Feels like a pretty aggressive ADP for Z Flowers. I'm I'm bullish on Z
14:17Flowers though this year. I think he's a good value in this range of drafts.
14:21Would I rather take him in round four?
14:23And I have round four exposure to Zeflowers in FFPC 350 entry drafts from like way early on in the process like
14:31early June. You'd see him a little bit lower. Now he's just settled in and there's sort of collective enthusiasm about Z Flowers in this Declan Doyle
14:40offense where people are bringing up things like positive touchdown regression. People are bringing up things like maybe the targets moving up
14:47and just the general offense being a little bit more pass happy than we were used to seeing in Todd Monkin era years
14:54and Zlowers sort of it feels like the clear offensive focal point. Mark Andrews getting a little older, a lack of clarity as who the wide receiver 2 is
15:03in Baltimore and Zlowers ended the year last year on a tear. So Zflower is sort of settling in wide receiver 14. Uh, and
15:11really could we see him headed to occasional like more and more like two three turn type situations where drafters maybe want to get just a little
15:21bit different with their builds. Not sure if we'll see a 212 type uh Z Flowers exposure, but he's has going in
15:29that early third more often than not now and he's sort of settled in as like a mid third round pick. Interesting player
15:35to look at. Keeping it going. We talked about Z Flowers. Let's talk about a player where no news is good news, and
15:41that's Josh Jacobs. Josh Jacobs is at running back 16 overall. Essentially, he's a 34 turn pick. So, late third,
15:51early fourth round pick, and it feels like a player that could sneak up to the early third round if like literally
15:58nothing happens the rest of the summer.
16:00There are people sort of debating Chris Brooks versus Marshon Lloyd as the handcuff right now. And that's really the only news in Green Bay. The off the-
16:09field stuff with Josh Jacobs, I think there was a ton of fear in the marketplace. I know I talked about it on
16:14a Dynasty life a couple months ago where it was a really scary situation uh for for the Jacobs managers in Dynasty
16:20especially, but in reddraft it's like all this craziness off the field and we want to be very cautious with that. But
16:28it's been like a slow drip. If we get to August and there's no more news, Jacobs, I think, is going to move up a little
16:35bit because drafters become very comfortable with the situation. Now, these sort of situations, there's always legs and like there's always like the
16:42potential of like could there be more bad news? Could the exemplus be on the table? We never really know, but right
16:48now it looks like maybe nothing will happen. And Josh Jacobs, like what is Josh Jacobs? Josh Jacobs is a Bellcow back who's older, but he's had 30
16:57touchdowns over his last 32 games and the Packers offense has really revolved around him. Even if the Christian Watson's and Tucker Crafts are major
17:05parts of the offense, if Josh Jacobs is healthy and on the field, he's going to get a high volume role. And right now
17:13where he's going, it feels like a relatively upside type value pick for a player that could have great volume and is really
17:23down because of fear in the marketplace that might not really need to be there.
17:27So keep an eye on Josh Jacobs and where that goes. Speaking of running backs, Jadarian Price is dropping. Jadarian Price, rookie running back of Seattle.
17:35We talked about sort of the fear in the Jeremiah Love uh streets. The Jadarian Price one is interesting. He's down to
17:41running back 26. So you're looking at about a round behind guys like Bashel Tutin. And Jadarian Price is sort of in
17:49his own little mini tier right now where he's like kind of goes behind the Bashel Tutin, Bucky Irving backs and then he
17:58sort of is his own little tier and then you get sort of the Jaylen Warren, Tony Pard, Jonathan Brooks types like sort of
18:05behind him. So Price is interesting.
18:08People are reacting to uh the Seattle coaching staff talking about maybe he'll play a little special teams. Like this was a funny one because Jerian Price, if
18:17you watch Notre Dame, like Price was one of the best return men in the entire country. I don't think it's crazy that
18:23they'd want to get Jaden Price a couple of returns this year and get him opportunities maybe for a like a couple
18:28of kickoff returns, uh maybe even a punt return. It's not it's not something that should scare us off of him. The idea
18:35with Jadarian Price is they took him in the first round. He's electric athletically and he has a pathway to scoring a lot of touchdowns. It's a very
18:44simple one. Can he catch passes? It's all theoretical. He never did it at Notre Dame. Was it because Jeremiah Love was this exceptional prospect? We would
18:53have liked to seen a little more there.
18:54But can he be like an opportunistic pass catcher who has like 25 catches this year, 30 catches? I don't know. I think
19:01he could. He's an exceptional athlete and he's on a very good offense. So, Price is an interesting one to me. When
19:07he keeps falling, it makes me more interested where you could essentially see some Jadarian Price in some of these formats in like the seventh round. We've
19:17seen him in oneoffs where he goes in the seventh round, even in FFPC. We're also seeing that in NFC. Jarian Price right
19:23now a middle of the sixth round pick, but a player who could score a lot of touchdowns on a very good team in
19:29Seattle. Uh, I think he's interesting. I think it's an interesting player at ADP, especially when the market pushes him down. But if you're fearful of guys like
19:37Emanuel Wilson and George Hani really taking away from Jadarian Price, um, I think that's not where I'm at. I I do
19:46think one thing that is interesting is Seattle has this incredibly difficult schedule to start out the season. Like, if you start looking at it, it's very
19:55difficult. You've got New England in the opener. Then you've got a couple of like pretty tough matchups down the line. Like you look at the
20:06early matchups. You've got a 49ers match up early in the season. P uh the the Patriots won. Um not sure. And then
20:13certainly like Denver in October, but I think Jarian Price when I look at it, Jarian Price could still get off to a
20:19very hot start. And that's sort of the thesis with him is even if Zack Charbanet comes back, could Jadarian Price be off to such a good start that
20:28the return of Charbanet doesn't like destroy his value? Um, I think we could be there. We also with Charbanet like this is a team that wants to make the
20:38Super Bowl again. Could they hold Charbanet out until like week 12? I'm not sure what the injury timeline with Charbanet is, and I'm sure we'll have
20:46more clarity as the summer moves along.
20:48But Jadarian Price, a very interesting player. Um, and he's falling into a range where it's really a low risk a lower risk bet than I thought it would
20:57be at this point. Speaking of injury optimism, you have George KD rising.
21:02When you drafted back in June, you'd see George KD falling into like the eighth round sometimes. I even saw a draft
21:07where he fell into the ninth round in the 350s. Now he's living at the 67 turn area. He has a main event. We've seen
21:16main events where he's gone at the very beginning of the sixth round. And I think that's kind of where he's going.
21:21There was a video of him like trap bar deadlifting 600 lb. And I I know that this has nothing to do with the injury
21:28recovery. We sort of see this every year where guy gets injured, guy lifts a lot of weight, and we it doesn't really
21:35necessarily correlate to his cutting and moving, but it's still kind of cool to see George KD out there ripping off a
21:41650lb trap bar deadlift. Um, and the guy's obviously been a maniac for years, but the organization is telling us he'll be back early. KD's telling us he'll be
21:51back early. They have that opener in Australia. Do they have George KD make like that long trip or do they keep him
21:59press him like fresh at home for like the rest of the season? I don't know. We could see KD I think left home in that
22:07game, but is there a chance he plays week two? I think so. And the ADP market is showing you that. I think KD will
22:14continue to rise, especially in the 1.5 point tight end premium FFPC leagues.
22:19Speaking of players rising up, you're getting sort of a collective enthusiasm for Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison Jr.
22:27like a lot of fantasy content creators are out there being very very enthusiastic about potentially like a year three leap for Marvin Harrison Jr.
22:37Whether you agree with it or not, the money is moving in the FFPC and we're seeing Marvin Harrison Jr. now going
22:43inside of round six. He's got a sixthround ADP after sort of being like a seventh round uh player uh when we
22:51went back to June. So Marvin Harrison Jr. moving up. There's enthusiasm there.
22:56He is is going in the middle of the sixth round in terms of his average ADP, sort of middle to late sixth. And you do
23:04see the occasional seventh round, but you're also starting to see the occasional early sixth round. So Marvin Harrison Jr. is really creeping up on
23:13Roma Dunce, Carnell Tate, Jameson Williams tier. And there is a 35 spot difference between Marvin Harris, excuse me, a 40 spot difference between Marvin
23:23Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. So drafters are really settled that decision where we had a like a who's going to be the better pick this year,
23:31Wilson or Harrison. There was a discourse for many weeks, but certainly in FFPC, it gets to be a wider and wider
23:38gap between the two wide receivers.
23:40Speaking of uh offensive players that are moving up, Drake May, Drake May was QB4 in June. He's up to QB2 this month.
23:48He's right next to Lamar Jackson, but he's ahead of Lamar Jackson at the time I'm recording this. And I think one
23:55other thing that Fantasy Mojo does very well is they share uh stack information.
24:01And shout out to Darren Armani. He tweeted out like sort of the most uh common stacks that he's seeing. And one
24:07of the most common stacks that he's seeing or correlation plays if you want to be more technical uh for the people
24:14who want to define stacks differently.
24:15Correlation play stack, whatever. If you're an old school drafter, NFC, uh FFPC, people just call this combo. So, whatever you're calling it, Drake May
24:24and AJ Brown are one that's being routinely uh built. So, it's pretty much like clockwork. If you draft uh Joe like
24:32T. Higgins becomes a Joe Burrow team.
24:34That's very common. And then you're seeing a lot of these teams with Drake May and AJ Brown. It's really one of the
24:41most common uh correlation plays now. So makes sense if you're betting on AJ Brown going very early. You could see Drake May sort of joining him in those
24:49sort of builds. So keep an eye on that one. And then the final player to kind of talk about it, Jonathan Brooks.
24:55Jonathan Brooks rising and rising. We talked about him last ADP Riser show. He continues to rise even more. He's up to
25:02running back 28 and very significant. He has passed Tony Pard and Raandre Stevenson by in FFPC main event IDP which is essentially he's neck andneck
25:14with those guys but you're seeing Brooks leading the charge. So, you're talking about Jonathan Brooks. The year three bet is real in especially with the FFPC
25:24drafter, NFC drafters as well, but Jonathan Brooks is up to running back 28 and there is a significant gap between him and Chuba Huard. He's going uh many
25:35spots ahead of Chuba now. I mean, not many, but it's about a round ahead of of Chuba Hubard. And I think there's
25:40collective enthusiasm with like the the Jonathan uh Brooks Bulls where if you're bullish on Jonathan Brooks, you're willing to push him up what's looking
25:49like now late sixth round pick. Um so Jonathan Brooks kind of to the moon with some of these drafters. There's been
25:56other uh people I've talked to this off season sort of taking a cautious approach looking to avoid that situation. But you do have a combination
26:03of this guy can catch the football. This guy was a top-notch talent coming out.
26:08if he's fully healthy, does he regain some of that talent that we saw at Texas and he's in a situation with Dave
26:15Canales where Canales has been a bit of a running back whisperer. So, there's a ton of enthusiasm with Jonathan Brooks.
26:21But, if you're entering your draft in August thinking, "Hey, I'm going to get Jonathan Brooks in round eight." That ship has sailed. Unless there's an
26:27injury, Jonathan Brooks is going to continue to climb. Keep an eye on where he settles up. I'm Theo Greinger, lead fantasy analyst for Roto Wire. Make sure
26:35you're checking out all my shows. If you're listening to this on the podcast, go ahead and check us out on YouTube. If
26:40you're watching this on YouTube, do me a favor, subscribe to the podcast, give us a nice review. Uh, it doesn't cost you
26:47anything. Helps us out a lot. Stick with us here at Rotoire. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.
