Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: 10 Must-Draft Players w/ Jared Smola
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
51 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 7, 2026
Published
Tue, July 7, 2026
16
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownChristian WatsonChuba HubbardDalton KincaidDrake LondonDrake MayeJames CookJayden DanielsJaylen WaddleJonathon BrooksKyler MurrayLuther BurdenMike EvansSaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue4:38
Jared calls AJ Brown an excellent pick anywhere in round two and is willing to chase him even into the beginning of round two if he climbs that high. He generally prefers AJ Brown over the RB cluster in the 1-3 round range, suggesting he'd rather take Brown in round 1 or pair him with a receiver in round 2 if picking near the 1-2 turn. The addition of Brown to Drake May's offense gives the Patriots a true number-one receiver, which Jared views as a massive upgrade for May's fantasy outlook.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveProjection37:38
Watson finished WR17 in fantasy points per game last year despite 61st route rate (68% of snaps) and Packers' 27th-ranked pass attempts, posting career bests in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade. With Romeo Doubs and Dantavian Wicks gone, Watson should see an uptick in targets (projected 110–120 range, up from sub-20% target share). Jared projects 20% target share and WR19 in half-PPR, but if target share rises to 23% while maintaining efficiency, Watson has a path to top-12 fantasy receiver. Key edge: Watson averaged 0.77 end-zone targets per game over three seasons—only nine WRs exceeded that last year—indicating consistent red-zone and touchdown opportunity. Green Bay's massive contract extension signals WR1 usage intent; Jared notes his efficiency metrics (top-5 yards per target, top-5 yards per route run) and sub-20% target share suggest he's not a target hog, but the contract and team investment indicate they're treating him as big-time WR1. Watson's ADP continues to climb, and if target share reaches 23%, he has immense upside despite not being a dominant target-volume player.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeBust12:12
Jared cites Hubbard's poor 2024 performance as justification for Jonathan Brooks' upside. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, Hubbard ranked 41st or worse in yards per carry, rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt. He lost the lead job to Rico Dael mid-season. In high-stakes formats (NFC, FFPC), Hubbard sits approximately 20 ADP spots behind Jonathan Brooks, creating a clear gap in market valuation between the two Carolina running backs.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveValue41:59
Kincaid is at a very cheap price tag and Jared identifies him as the number-two target in Buffalo, making this the easiest year to 'click on the Dalton King button.' Despite disappointing last two seasons, Kincaid has first-round pedigree and a strong rookie season (73 catches). The low ADP combined with projected role as second-most-targeted pass-catcher in Buffalo creates value opportunity.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveValue16:57
Jared prefers Drake London over the RB cluster in rounds 1-3, suggesting he'd rather take London in round 2 if picking near the 1-2 turn.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveValue3:58
Jared flags Drake May as a must-draft value and potential league-winning quarterback despite being QB5 in ADP. May was QB3 in fantasy points per game last year in his first season under Josh McDaniels with a mediocre supporting cast. He led the league in completion rate and completion percentage over expected, was third in passing touchdowns, and third among QBs in rushing attempts, fourth in rushing yards, and eighth in rushing touchdowns. The Patriots' offensive line is a year older with a first-round draft pick added, plus signings of Romeo Dubs and Eli Raridan (fast tight end), and the trade for AJ Brown gives May a true number-one receiver. In underdog drafts, May goes in the middle of round six, ahead of opportunity costs like Tony Pollard, Chuba Hubbard, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Jared projects a tougher schedule will increase pass attempts despite potential efficiency decline, and McDaniels has shown willingness to let May air it out. May is more expensive than last year but still too cheap given the Patriots' investment in his weapons.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue16:57
Jared mentions James Cook as a running back he'd prefer to take in round 1 over the consensus RB cluster, then pair with a receiver in round 2 if picking near the 1-2 turn.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeRole33:24
Jaden Daniels provided quarterback context for Terry McLaren's 2024 season performance. McLaren had a massive season with 13 touchdown catches and nearly 1100 receiving yards while playing with Daniels. However, both McLaren and Daniels dealt with injuries in 2024, yet McLaren still set a career-high in yards per route.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue24:23
Waddle is WR24 in ADP but projects as a top-12 fantasy WR. One of eight WRs last year to average 2+ yards per route and 15%+ route win rate, and has maintained this elite efficiency in three of his last four seasons. Situation upgrade from Miami (30th pass attempts, 25th pass yards) to Denver (4th pass attempts, 11th pass yards); also upgrade at QB. Jared expects Waddle to 'separate himself in a major way' from Courtland Sutton and be the clear number-one receiver in Denver's offense. Waddle was a top-10 pick in his draft and 'did some really good things in Miami,' but was limited by Tyreek Hill's presence and then the Dolphins' offensive collapse. Now in Denver, which ranked top-5 in pass attempts last year, Waddle has the opportunity and volume to emerge as a featured player. Jared prefers Waddle over Luther Burden and Tedo McMillan due to proven track record despite similar ceilings.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeValue12:12
Jared has been targeting Jonathan Brooks for months and is willing to chase him into the eighth round or higher as his ADP climbs. Despite the twice-torn ACL concern, everything from Carolina's coaching staff and beat writers has been positive regarding Brooks' spring workouts and health status. Jared projects Brooks as a clear lead back in Carolina by October if healthy, pluggable as an RB2 with upside in fantasy lineups. Brooks' college production at Texas was elite: 114 rushing yards per game, 6.1 yards per carry, 2.5 receptions per game, 29 receiving yards per game. At 216 pounds, he's a three-down back skill set in a good situation where Chuba Hubbard underperformed last year (ranked 41st or worse in yards per carry, rush yards over expected, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced among 51 RBs with 90+ carries). The big-time upside case centers on his receiving ability (2.5 catches per game at Texas), and this could end up being an all-time injury comeback given Dave Canales' track record with running backs (Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dael all produced at RB1 level under Canales).
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue8:30
Jared views Kyler Murray as underpriced at QB16 on underdog and would chase him up to QB12 easily. He projects Murray as a good bet to score as a top-12 fantasy quarterback this season, which Murray had done in every season of his career prior to 2024 when he only played five games. Among active quarterbacks, only six (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow) have scored more fantasy points per game than Murray. The Kevin O'Connell offense is described as the best situation of Murray's career, with top-tier weapons (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jawan Jennings, TJ Hawkinson) and an elite offensive line—a huge upgrade from Arizona. Murray's rushing upside (572 yards, 5 TDs in 2024) combined with O'Connell's track record of generating top-9 QB fantasy points in his first three Vikings teams supports top-6 upside potential. Jared favors Murray over Jared Goff (citing upside vs. safety; Goff would struggle to finish top-8), over Brock Purdy, and over Matthew Stafford (who had 46 passing TDs last year).
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeValue27:12
Jared likes Luther Burden's talent and ceiling, which is similar to Jaylen Waddle's, but prefers Waddle because Waddle has proven it at the NFL level while Burden has not yet demonstrated consistent production.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveProjection32:44
Evans was very good in the few games he was healthy last year and could score 15 touchdowns this year, which would not surprise Jared. In an ADP head-to-head comparison with Devonte Adams, Jared ranks Adams slightly ahead but views them as very similar profiles: older WRs still producing at a high level.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection16:35
Jared ranks Saquon Barkley just ahead of Ken Walker and projects bounceback appeal in his new offense with expected healthier offensive-line play and potentially increased passing-game usage. He's willing to buy Barkley for one more year as an early second-round pick, though he finds Walker more exciting due to age and remaining upside.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue33:27
McLaurin smashed his ADP in 2024 with 13 TD catches and nearly 1100 receiving yards alongside Jaden Daniels, finishing WR16 in fantasy points. At WR23 ADP this season, Jared flags him as underpriced with minimal WR target competition and an offense built around him. Despite turning 31 and injuries limiting him in 2024, McLaurin set a career-high in yards per route (13th among 76 WRs) and has historically been a 21–23% target share guy. Jared projects another similar fantasy season and notes 2024 was the only time McLaurin has been healthy with good QB play. New offensive coordinator David Blau plans to move him side-to-side and feature him dynamically, potentially providing more easy-button targets than Cliff Kingsbury's approach. Jared projects McLaurin could dominate targets and wouldn't be shocked by a 150-target season (career high was 134 in 2020). Caveat: if Stefon Diggs lands in Washington, Jared would downgrade McLaurin significantly and project him back to a 22% target range, lowering his rankings and reducing upside.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection21:10
Jared projects Zay Flowers as a top-10 WR if he reaches 7-8 touchdowns, with potential for top-8 or even top-5 finish if he breaks out in the red zone. Currently at 28% target share with five, four, and five touchdowns over three seasons; the primary limiting factor has been red zone usage rather than overall volume. New coaching staff (Declan Doyle) and Isaiah Likely's departure (15 TDs over four seasons) create a clear path for increased end-zone opportunities. Baltimore was dead last in pass attempts last season and second-to-last in 2024; if Declan Doyle improves the offense to just 10th-worst in pass attempts, Flowers has significant volume outs. Additionally, if Derrick Henry misses time at age 33 for rest management, the offense becomes 'a lot more Z Flowers focused.' Flowers is in his prime while Mark Andrews and other Ravens skill players are north of 30, positioning him as the focal point.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:05We're talking mustdraft flag plant players right here on RotoWire Fantasy Football. I'm Theo Griminger, lead fantasy analyst right over here at
0:13Rotoire. Joined today by one of the sharpest guys in the industry, Jared Smola of Draft Sharks. Jared is going to drop 10 of his mustdraft players,
0:22players he is flag planning. Some of these players are highly drafted players, others are very much sleepers, but we're going to break it all down
0:30today with Jared. Jared, we we've only got a little over two months before opening day kickoff. How locked in are you right now? How many drafts are you
0:39dropping in? And what do you guys have have coming out over at Draft Sharks?
0:44>> You know, we've been locked in since uh the Super Bowl ended. That's when we uh launched our 2026 projections and
0:50rankings. We've been keeping those updated throughout, you know, all this OTAAS and all these mini camp, all the news we've been getting. Um, yeah, I'm,
0:57you know, I I'm a slow drafter, so I I try to have like, you know, like like three to five slow drafts going at any
1:03point. Then once in a while, I'll hop in a fast draft. But, um, excited to get camps going and start getting some new
1:09news and tidbits on these players. I feel like we're getting the same stuff.
1:12This David Montgomery story, that quote from the running back backs coach, it was from like a month ago and like we're
1:18still seeing like new articles coming out about that same quote. I feel like we're starting to like double count stuff which is uh you know can be tricky
1:24around this time of year. So excited for uh you know camps to open in the next few weeks here.
1:28>> Yeah. I mean it's it's a it's a great quote though. The guy the guy the guy says he's when you when you hear
1:33offensive coordinator say somebody's all day tough. All day tough is an absolute bar. So we're not going to talk about David Montgomery today. We do have one
1:40running back you're going to talk about.
1:42Um and we're going to talk about some quarterbacks. We've got every single position covered. Uh and if you want access to Jared's rankings, go check out
1:48draftsharks.com. If you want access to my rankings right over at Rotoire, dropping all of my reddraft rankings, all of my dynasty rankings, and you're
1:56going to find all of my written work.
1:58Use the code Theo5 for 15% off of any Rotoire subscription. Really, really strong stuff we've got planned over on the site this year. Jared, I I love
2:06talking about this every time Jared comes on to pod with me and I've podcast with you at this point like dozens of
2:11times, Jared. Um Jared in 2021 told you to draft Cooper Cup. So it whatever he says on this show, you want to listen
2:19very carefully. Uh that was the comeback player of the year over at Draft Sharks and the it's a team over at Draft
2:25Sharks. But Jared, you're you're a major voice in that room when it comes to your awards. You've got your award uh your
2:32award articles sort of coming out. When can people anticipate this year's comeback player of the year? Yeah. So, we do comeback player, we do a bust
2:40pick, which is generally a guy going in like the first first two rounds of fantasy drafts that we're, you know, steering people away from. Then we have
2:46a breakout player of the year article as well. So, those will start to hit the site in mid July. Uh we usually save
2:52breakout player for last. That might be, you know, beginning of August. But yeah, Theo, you're my you're my best hype man.
2:57>> I know. I never let anybody forget. I never let anybody forget the Cooper Cup thing because 2021 Cooper Cup if you had
3:04him on your fantasy team just a quick reminder he was like QB2 that year and he played wide receiver so it was like
3:09you could have you could have had if in your first eight rounds you could have drafted three buss and as long as you
3:15had Cooper Cup it really didn't matter what else you did and love reminding everybody so people a lot of times get
3:22so locked in Jared on you know oh this is ADP I'm going to follow it Cooper Cup was the second drafted Rams wide
3:30receiver that year. People were on Robert Woods ahead of him. That same year, people were ahead um with T.
3:36Higgins ahead of Jamar Chase that year.
3:38And people, I believe, had Brandon Iayuk ahead of Debo that year. Three top five wide receiver finishes and they were drafted as the second wide receiver on
3:46their team. That's why we put in the work. That's why you're listening to guys like Jared, listening to guys like me, and you're putting in the work two
3:52months ahead of the season. Some of your league mates are going to come out of sort of hibernation when it gets to
3:58August 1st, but we're grinding. It's July. We're putting out a show every single day here on Rotoire. Let's get it started. Jared, like last year, Drake
4:06May was one of the stories of fantasy football. He was the the like quarterback steel, the best pick you could have made at the quarterback
4:15position. And it feels like no one's talking about his upside at this point in the year. It's kind of funny to me
4:21where New England went out and the offensive line's a year older. They also drafted a first round offensive lineman.
4:28They uh signed Romeo Dubs. They draft Eli Raridan, a fast tight end. Sort of improve the athleticism over like Austin Hooper alongside Hunter Henry. And then
4:38they go and they trade for AJ Brown. But no one's talking about Drake May as like a potential league winning value. Really
4:45happy to see that you have him as a flag plant.
4:48Yeah, I continues to be surprised at May's cost. You know, he's obviously more expensive than he was last year, but I think he's still too cheap. Um,
4:56like you said, the he was he was quarterback three in fantasy points per game last year. In his second NFL season, in his first season in Josh
5:03McDaniels offense with a pretty mediocre supporting cast. Um, you know, May and May did it with his arm and his legs
5:10last year. He was awesome as a passer.
5:12Led the league in a ton of different categories. completion rate. Completion rate overex expected yards per pass attempt. He was third in the league in
5:19passing touchdowns. And I I think his rushing production is probably underrated at this point. He was third among all quarterbacks in rushing
5:26attempts. He was fourth in rushing yards, eighth in rushing touchdowns. And I mean, the AJ Brown edition is obviously massive. Gives this offense a
5:33true number one receiver. By the way, I think AJ Brown's an excellent pick like anywhere in round two. I'm I'm going to
5:38be willing to chase him even up into like the beginning of round two if he ends up climbing that high. Um, I think
5:43the argument you'll hear against May is that his schedule will be tougher this season, and that's certainly fair. We're actually projecting his passing
5:51efficiency to come down. But I think a tougher schedule is also going to mean more pass attempts for Drake May if the
5:58Patriots just aren't leading and aren't winning so many of these games. This Patriots offense last year was 26th in the NFL in pass rate, but they were
6:06fifth in pass rate over expected. And so what that means is that means game script was, you know, turning this into
6:12a runheavier offense if they're in more competitive games. I, you know, McDaniels has shown he's willing to let Drake Mayer air it out. So I think any
6:19loss in efficiency is going to be made up with, you know, more passing volume.
6:23And the last point about May, again, I'll go back to the price tag. He's quarterback five and ADP. You know, we
6:27have ranked a couple spots higher than that among quarterbacks. But if you look at underdog drafts, Drake May is going in the middle of round six. like the
6:34guys you're passing on to take Drake May. It's like Tony Pard, Chuba Hubard, Marvin Harrison Jr. Like I'm I'm not worried about those guys beating me.
6:43Give me Drake May who I think has a chance to be like a big-time differencemaker at quarterback.
6:47>> Yeah. And you you mentioned the rushing production and that's something that seems pretty static when it comes to May where he's had 400 plus rushing yards in
6:55back-to-back seasons, had four rushing scores last year. The most explosive passes in the NFL. New England as a team, I love this stat, led the NFL in
7:07plays over 20 yards last year, averaged five plays that went for 20 plus yards a game. So Josh McDaniels was completely
7:14locked in last year and how to utilize May. Completely agree with you with on AJ Brown. I talked about him with Jacob
7:20Gibbs. I talked about him about about him with Dave Kugi. If you're listening on the podcast, just go back and listen
7:25to those two episodes. I'm all over AJ Brown. Jared is as well. So, like people are not really talking about that when
7:31it comes to Drake May. And you talk about the opportunity cost to draft him.
7:35He goes 30 spots behind Josh Allen in NFC and then in formats like FFPC, it's it's an even larger gap. And May is just
7:44sort of in this quarterback cluster where I feel like there's still a lot of unknown upside with him. He's only 23
7:50years old. He's my QB2 right now in my rankings over at Rotoire. Um, I'm completely with you. I think this could
7:58be a huge Drake May season and there's just not a whole lot of reasons to fade.
8:03You talk about and there's drafters are going to say, you know, guys, you you are talking about a top five quarterback, but again, it's where you
8:10have to draft him. Jared, like even like last year, quarterback two, quarterback three, those guys were going rounds and rounds earlier. Now you're able to get
8:18access to May in round six, in round seven in formats like FFPC. So, completely with you. Let's talk about a quarterback that's ranked lower. Um, and
8:28we talked about this maybe a month ago.
8:30You were on Kyler Murray. We're starting to see Murray come up. He's QB16 on underdog, but there's a lot to like
8:37about this profile in a Kevin Oonnell offense.
8:41>> Yeah, Murray's price has has climbed a bit. It's still not enough to me. I mean, I I chase him up to, you know,
8:47quarterback 12 easily. I think he's a good bet to score as a top 12 fantasy quarterback this season, which he had
8:52actually done in every season of his career prior to last year when he only played five games. Among active quarterbacks, only six active
9:01quarterbacks have scored more fantasy points per game than Kyler Murray. It's it's, you know, it's the usual suspects.
9:06Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow.
9:11That's it. Like Kyler Murray scores fantasy points and I think this is the best situation he's been in in his career when you factor in the weapons
9:19the Vikings had have with Justin Jefferson. Obviously Jordan Addison, Jawan Jennings, that's a nice like you know number two number three wide
9:26receiver combo. TJ Hawinson fine. I mean not exciting but fine at tight end. So and then and then Kevin Okonnell who
9:33again kind of kind of like Kyler until last year had just consistently put up strong passing numbers from his offenses. Each of Okonnell's first three
9:41Vikings teams finished top nine in total quarterback fantasy points and a lot of that came from Kirk Cousins, but there were some some scrubs who, you know, had
9:50to fill in for Kirk Cousins that put up big fantasy numbers. And none of those guys could run like Kyler Murray can. So
9:56I again I think his upside easily into the top 12 quarterbacks, probably even into the top like six when you factor in
10:01the fact that, you know, this guy could give us 600 600 or so rushing yards this season.
10:05>> Yeah. And people have talked about his like lack of willingness to run last year in Arizona. It feels like uh that
10:13could be a quick turnaround. It's a huge motivational season for Kyler because it's essentially a one-year deal in Minnesota. It's a it's a very
10:22teamfriendly deal. Murray's going to be I Jared I believe he's going to be the lowest paid starting quarterback on like a single season salary, but that could
10:31parlay itself into like a a big career trajectory changing move in 2027 or Minnesota could just figure things out with him and keep him in tow. But you
10:41talk about the rushing upside, 572 rushing yards in 2024 to go along with five rushing touchdowns. And then you talk about just the offensive ecosystem
10:52he's in where it's quality offensive line play. A huge huge uh boost from what we saw in Arizona. And then you've
11:00got Justin Jefferson, the best wide receiver he's played with since DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Addison, Jawan Jennings, TJ Hawinson still maybe has a little bit
11:09of gas left. Um there's enough there in Minnesota, I think, from a personnel uh department that I think Murray could really shine. And then you bring up like
11:17Okonnell like man Josh Dobs, Nick Mullins, all sorts of guys we were able to plug into our lineup. So I'm with
11:23you. Just a little head-to-head player debate, Jared Goff or Kyler Murray for you.
11:29>> I mean, give me Kyler Murray. I just think upside, right? I mean, yeah, sure, Goff's probably safer, but Goff is It
11:34would be very tough for Goff to finish the top, you know, eight fantasy quarterback. I think Kyler Murray has a much easier path.
11:39>> Brock Pury or Kyler Murray?
11:42>> Yeah, I got I gotta go pretty there. Um, yeah.
11:44>> Okay, I'll give you one more. Okay, it's close though.
11:47>> Okay, here we go. Last year's another quarterback steel last year, Matthew Stafford with his 46 passing touchdowns versus Kyler Murray. Those guys are
11:56essentially head-to-head on formats like underdog and and in reddraft, it's close enough.
12:02>> Yeah, give me Kyler there to to me Stafford is in that same bucket as as Jared Goff, like yeah, the passing
12:06production is going to be good, but Kyler gives you the exciting upside.
12:09>> So, we're starting to see a huge climb.
12:12You've been all over Jonathan Brooks for months now. We're starting to see the ADP climb up. Um there's actually like a
12:19lot of conversation you're going to hear in podcasts over the next couple weeks is Chuba Hubard versus Jonathan Brooks, but in high stakes formats like NFC and
12:28FFPC, there is a clear gap right now.
12:31It's about a 20 spot gap. In baseball, it's a little bit different, but your call between Brooks versus Chuba Hubard.
12:39And what's the appealing upside for you where you've circled Jonathan Brooks as a player you really want access to in drafts?
12:47>> Yeah, I'll say I'm I'm glad I got a lot of Brooks early because his price is climbing. I'm still willing to I chase
12:53Brooks probably into the eighth round at this point and potentially higher if we continue to hear good things about Jonathan Brooks when camp gets going.
13:00Hopefully we see see him in some preseason action. I mean, obviously the question with Jonathan Brooks is, you know, what what what kind of player is
13:07he now coming off a twice torn ACL, but man, everything we've heard from the coaching staff and from beat writers in
13:15Carolina has been positive about, you know, how how Brooks has looked in, you know, in spring workouts and how he's been feeling if he's healthy. He he was
13:23a super exciting prospect coming out of Texas. obviously sat behind BJ Robinson his first couple years there, but as a junior 114 rushing yards per game, 6.1
13:33yards per carry, and he caught two and a half passes per game, 29 receiving yards per game. He's 216 pounds. So, he he has
13:41the look and the skill set of a three down back. Um, and I think he's undoubtedly in a good situation in
13:47Carolina. And part of the reason is because Trouba Harbor just wasn't good last year. Uh 51 running backs had 90 plus carries last year. Hubard ranked
13:5641st or worse in yards per carry, rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced per attempt. We saw
14:05Hubard lose that lead job to Rico Dael, you know, in the middle of last season.
14:10So Dave Canel has shown he's willing to just go with the best player. And I I think if Brooks is healthy, there's a
14:16good chance he just proves to be Carolina's best running back. like by October he's just a clear lead back in Carolina. He's someone we can plug into
14:23our fantasy lineups every week as like an RB2 with upside.
14:26>> Yeah. And you talk about the upside case there. You know, for me it's really chasing that Dave Canales running back.
14:33That's also been sort of a cheat code for us in fantasy football. We saw it with Bucky Irving in 2024 where Irving
14:40was this double-digit round guy. He ended up overtaking Rashad White, producing in a major way. Uh, we saw Chuba Hubard himself as sort of a
14:49compiler, but a guy that Dave Canales, Dave Canales, I mean, for all of Chuba Hubard's limitations, he had Chuba Hubard as a near RB1 finisher his first
14:58year in Carolina. And then, of course, last year we saw Rico Dael set the fantasy world on fire. Had had like
15:05multiple RB1 overall type weeks. Um, so Dave Canales is a little bit of a running back whisperer. I think you nailed it with Jonathan Brooks. Really
15:14the the the upside case for him is the big- time receiving ability. And we've heard Dave Canales talk about it. We saw
15:22it at Texas. And like just go back in time, if we look at Jonathan Brooks, the prospect prospect pre-injjury. His numbers at Texas when he took over for
15:32Bean Robinson were very similar to Bejian Robinson. So like we've been waiting for this one for a while. Um this could end up being just an all-time
15:40injury comeback. And I think I agree with you, Jared, that it's much easier to click that button on Brooks when we're in round eight. You're starting to
15:48see him creep up into like the sixth round occasionally in these drafts where I mean, you're seeing like the gravitational pull of running back where
15:56people are so running back centric in their draft strategies this year where some of these drafts where you see the fifth round guys get pulled into the
16:04fourth and so on, you're seeing Brooks get pulled up there. Um, I agree it's much easier in the eighth round and sort
16:10of speaking about running backs. Uh, let's talk about it because, you know, you you only flag planted one, but we're seeing this massive cluster of players
16:20going usually like we get to the one-two turn, you see like those wide receivers like Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb.
16:27They're sort of in the mix, but it's really a lot of running backs. You get the James Cook, Omarian Hampton, Chase
16:35Brown, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Devon Achan, and then we might as well throw Derk Henry in the mix and Jeremiah Love. All of those guys are going to go
16:44between the end of round one and the very beginning of round three. Are there any running backs sort of in that huge
16:52cluster of guys that you feel way more comfortable drafting? cuz I think a lot of a lot of fantasy analysts, they're
16:59sort of like, "Oh, those guys are all one tier." Okay, I get it, but I'm OTC.
17:04Who should I take?
17:06>> So, for starters, I'll say I'm generally leaning towards the the wide receivers in that range of drafts. Like, you know,
17:12give again, give me AJ Brown over those guys, you know, generally give me give me Drake London. I I get I'd rather I'd
17:19rather even get like an Ashton Jensenty or James Cook in round one and then come back with one of those receivers in
17:23round two if I'm picking near near the one two turn. If I'm picking between those guys, I like Ken Walker. Um I I
17:29just think you're going to see a different Chiefs offense this season with the money they invested into Ken Walker and with Patrick Mahomes coming
17:37off the ACL. I think especially early on, we're going to see that team lean on Ken Walker. I think they're going to use
17:42him in the passing game. He has shown I know he hasn't always got the P, he didn't always get, you know, all the
17:47passing down snaps in Seattle, but he has shown to be a reliable and explosive pass catcher when he is used in the
17:53passing game. So, I think Ken Walker is in for a a big workload in an offense that's still going to be good. You know,
17:59maybe not the Chiefs of, you know, four or five years ago where they're a top five scoring offense, but they're going
18:03to score plenty of points. Walker's going to get those goal line carries. I think he's the guy that has the the
18:07clearest path to return like, you know, round one value.
18:11>> Yeah, I have him at 16 overall in my rankings and I think I'm with you. like Ken Walker, it's, you know, we've seen
18:17sort of the frustrating seasons usage-wise, but Kansas City saying all the right things and like like Emtt Johnson, Brashard Smith, there's some
18:28appealing traits those guys have and certainly I think EMTT Johnson could be put into like the fun handcuff category, but I think they're going to get
18:34everything that they can out of Walker.
18:37It sort of feels like it's not 2024 Saquon Barkley, but could it be like 2024 Josh Jacobs, 2024 Derrick Henry, like a massive season from like a free
18:48agent running back? Um, I think we could see that. So, I'm with you. I think Walker is a really easy click. And you
18:54just kind of you prefer him to the Chase Browns, the Devon Chans, uh, those kind of guys. And, and how about Omari and
19:01Hampton in that mix, too?
19:03>> Yeah, I have Walker just ahead of Hampton. I do have Saquon Barkley just ahead of Kenneth Walker. Okay, there we
19:07go. Um I I do think I do think Barkley has nice bounceback appeal with in the new offense with hopefully a healthier
19:13season from their own line. Maybe some even increased passing game usage for for Saquon Barkley. So I'm I'm willing to buy into Saquon Barkley for one more
19:20year. But even, you know, in that range, Ken Walker just excites me more, I guess, just because he's, you know, a
19:25younger player at this point. Maybe has some more gas left in the tank. But I I think Saquon's a fine pick, too, you
19:29know, in the in the early part of the second round. So, you're getting a lot of uh wide receiver values and people
19:35are sort of looking at these wide receivers who are like the starting at like the very high-end wide receiver 2 range down into sort of the low-end wide
19:45receiver 2, high-end wide receiver three. Much like running back in round two, I think there's a bunch of people that when you talk to smart guys like
19:53yourself, there's like a huge handful of wide receivers that people like. You've got a number of them to talk about here.
20:00Let's start out with a wide receiver that we're both locked in on. We're both sort of ahead of consensus when it comes
20:06to Z Flowers. Talk about your enthusiasm level for him this year. Really strong end of the season for Flowers last year
20:13and a very fun offensive coordinator fit with Declan Doyle coming over from the Ben Johnson trade.
20:20>> Yeah, I've been drafting a ton of Z Flowers. this guy he he finished wide receiver 11 in PPR points per game last
20:26year despite Lamar Jackson missing four games and and parts of a few others and despite the Ravens offense just having a
20:33down year in large part because of the Lamar injuries. The Ravens last year finished 16th in points. They were 29th in offensive plays. Um you know this had
20:43been a top six offense in both points and yards each of the previous two seasons with a healthy Lamar Jackson.
20:48They had also averaged 61.8 8 plays per game over Lamar's first six seasons.
20:54That was down to 57.3 last year. So, part of the Flowers thing for me is just betting on a Ravens bounceback. And I think he is the clear
21:02clear number one target in this passing game. They lose Isaiah likely. They had a couple rookie wide receivers. You know, I I I like Elijah Stout. I'm not
21:10sure he's going to be a huge factor this season. So, I I think Flowers, he was at a 28% target share already last year. I
21:16mean, it's tough to project someone to to have a higher target share than that.
21:20there. There's definitely a path for him to get there. The one thing we need from Zay Flowers is more touchdowns. You
21:27know, he has five, four, and five touchdowns in his first three NFL seasons. That's what's kind of prevented him from truly like breaking out and
21:33becoming an elite fantasy wide receiver.
21:35A lot of that has just been a usage problem. He just hasn't gotten many targets inside the red zone and and you
21:40know, in the end zone. That changing coaching staff, too, Declan Doyle, I mean, that I think that could be the impetus to get him more looks inside the
21:48red zone and in the end zone. Um, and I think Isaiah likely being gone, too. I mean, he has 15 touchdowns over the last
21:52four seasons. He's been a bit pretty big part of the Ravens red zone passing offense. So, I'm I'm just hoping Zay
21:58gets some more uh touchdown opportunities. If we can get him to like seven or eight scores, I I think we're talking about a top 10 fantasy wide
22:04receiver.
22:05>> Ravens dead last in pass attempts last season, second to to last the in 2024.
22:12Um, I mean, if Declan Doyle can just get that, you talked about sort of the plays per game. I I'm looking at sort of just
22:18the raw pass attempt total if we can get rate Baltimore to being like the have the 10th like be be 10th worst like you
22:26don't need to be the bottom of the barrel here be just slightly more balanced and I think Z Flowers has outs
22:32there. So you talk about the positive touchdown regression you talk about him just maturing as a pro. You talk about the potential that the target volume
22:40goes way up. There's just so many outs there. I'll also throw outs that people don't like talking about because Derrick Henry's superhuman. If Derrick Henry at,
22:50you know, 33 years old does miss a little more time this year just because they want to keep him fresh, I think the
22:56offense uh maybe becomes a lot more Z Flowers focused. Then you sort of talk about Mark Andrews who I know I I don't
23:03I don't think there's a whole lot of people fading Mark Andrews at his current cost, but you are talking about a player that's north of 30. So there's
23:11a lot of players on Baltimore sort of north of 30 that they're relying on.
23:15Zaflflower is very much in the prime of his career and you're seeing some love coming out for like Rashad Baitman on
23:21the timeline right now on X because I don't think those rookies or Tez Walker or any of those guys is sort of
23:27separating themselves from the pack here. So they draft Jaylen Lane or excuse me, which was the wide receiver from I'm drawing a blank here. Jacobe
23:36Jacobe Lane. Jacobe, not Okay, I'm getting my lanes mixed up. Jacobe Lane from USC. They draft Elijah Sat from Indiana. Um Tez Walker still in the
23:44building, but none of those guys have really taken a forward a step that they're like overtaking Rashad Baitman.
23:50Those guys are all going to cannibalize one another. I think at least early on Z Flowers could be a 30% target share guy
23:56right out the gate. So completely with you. I think Ze Flowers a very very easy click and I think the upside outcome for
24:03him is way way higher than in seasons past. I think we could be talking about a top eight wide receiver scoring
24:09finish. And dare I say it, if he does get loose in the touchdown department like you think he can, then maybe maybe
24:16top five. So Z Flowers, I'm into him here. Um Jaylen Wadd, another player, and I talked about him with Dave Kugi
24:23sort of at length here where Wadd um new team, they trade a first, third, and fourth round pick to acquire him. And
24:32yet there's still sort of this disconnect in the fantasy community where there's some smart people who think that the fantasy scoring between
24:40Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Wadd could be close. I think Wadd is going to separate himself in a major way and be
24:47featured heavily in this offense. And Jared, we talk about pass attempts.
24:52Denver top five in pass attempts as a team last year. What's your ceiling outcome case for Jaylen Wadd?
24:59Yeah, I expect Wadd to to separate from Sutton and kind of, you know, be the clear number one receiver in this
25:04offense. I I and I think Sutton's a fine player. I think Jaylen Wadd's really really good. I mean, he was a top 10
25:09pick in his draft. He He's definitely he obviously did some really good things in Miami. I think there was kind of always
25:15something getting in the way. A lot of it was Tyreek Hill being there who, you know, I don't know if Tyreek Hill is
25:20gonna make the Hall of Fame, but he he was a Hall of Fame caliber talent, you know, in those prime years in Miami.
25:25Then of course last year Tyreek goes down but the Dolphins offense just kind of falls apart with you know two and all
25:30all of his issues. Uh Jacob Gibbs who I think you said you had on Theo are going to have on. He had a great stat on
25:36Jaylen Wadd. He was one of eight wide receivers last year to average two plus yards per route and have a 15 plus
25:43percent route win rate according to fantasy points. And you know the other seven guys it was Puka Nakua Jackson Smith and Jackson Smith and Jigba Z
25:51Flowers who we just talked about George Pickkins Nico Collins Devonte Adams Ricky Pieraw interesting guy on that list but you know Wadd is one of those
25:58eight guys and Wadd by the way has done that he's averaged two plus yards per route and had the 15 plus percent route
26:04win rate in three of his last four seasons. So it's just not not just last year. He has consistently been efficient, been getting separation. Huge
26:12upgrade in situation I think going from Miami to Denver. I mean, just look at the the pass volume in production. Last
26:18year's Dolphins were 30th in pass attempts, 25th in pass yards. Last year's Broncos, fourth in pass attempts, 11th in pass yards. I think it's an
26:27upgrade in quarterback situation for Jaylen Wadd. I think, you know, he's wide receiver 24 in ADP. I think this guy could be a top 12 fantasy wide
26:35receiver this year.
26:36>> I'm with you. And there's been a strong hit rate on traded wide receivers. Wide receivers traded in the offseason. At
26:42least one of them hits in a major way.
26:44We talked about this the other day with Dave Klo. It was George Pickkins last year. Go back the year before Jerry Judy
26:51ended up having a near wide receiver one season. Go back the year before. It's DJ Moore. I mean, and you can go all the
26:57way back to like 2019 with this one.
26:59Guys like Stefan Diggs for your Buffalo Bills, AJ Brown, multiple times probably for AJ Brown here. Um, so really when it
27:07comes to Jaylen Waddle, the hit rate is strong there when we're chasing this sort of a profile. You mentioned sort of
27:12your willingness to draft him. Luther Burden versus Jaylen Wadd.
27:17>> I love Luther Burden, but but give me Jaylen Wadd. I think um the ceilings are similar and I I feel just a bit better
27:23about Waddle having shown it to us.
27:24>> And then Jaylen Wadd versus a guy who I know we love the talent maybe don't love the situation. Tedo McMillan.
27:31>> Give me Wadd.
27:32>> So there we go. And I think people love talking about unknown upside when it comes to younger players. And I think
27:38it's a smart way to go about things.
27:39Like Jared could write a novel on how guys entering year two and year three, you know, how beneficial it is for us to
27:47attack them, but players on new teams also have sort of that unknown upside because we don't know what's going on in
27:54that building in Denver. We do know that they're in a Super Bowl window and they gave up a firstrounder, a third rounder,
28:01and a fourthrounder to go acquire this player and he and he and they gave him a contract. So like Jaylen Wadd for me is
28:08in a situation where if we're just looking at like rational coaching, they were a few plays away from the Super Bowl last year. This window is there.
28:16One of they probably have the best offensive line in football. A dynamite defense and then Bo Nicks entering year three. Got to like that one. And Jaylen
28:25Wadd 27 years old. This is not some guy that you have to worry about some sort of big breakdown. He's very much in the
28:31prime of his career. So love that one.
28:34Let's continue talking about wide receivers. You know, we talked about a couple of guys in their 20s. Let's talk about an old guy, uh, Devonte Adams.
28:42You're still very much in on Dvonte Adams. I believe you were in on Dvonte Adams last summer as well, Jared. And
28:48and Devonte Adams ended up looking like he was going to challenge maybe for the all-time record for touchdowns. Um, ended up getting a little bit banged up,
28:56but still had, I believe, 24 I mean, excuse me, 14 touchdown grabs last year.
29:01Um, it's really hard to envision his target share dropping below like 21 22% in what should be a highly consolidated offense. What's your enthusiasm level?
29:11Is it the cost or is it the upside?
29:14>> It's the cost mostly honestly with Dvonte Adams. He this is an ADP that's just kind of confused me all draft
29:19season. Um, he's wide receiver 26 on underdog right now and that's you know that's half PPR where I think Adams gains value because he is going to get a
29:26lot of his value from his touchdowns.
29:29that he finished wide receiver eight in half PPR points per game last year. So he's going 18 wide receiver spots lower
29:35than where he finished last year. A lot a lot of people want to, you know, bring up their, you know, I guess regression
29:41argument with Devonte Adams. He actually he underachieved versus his usage last year. He was wide receiver two in expected half PPR points per game last
29:51year. Even if we omit the one game that Puka missed and the three games that he was limited, Adams was still wide
29:57receiver four in expected half PPR points per game in in his other games.
30:02The touchdown total was obviously huge.
30:03You know, 14 touchdowns in 14 games.
30:05Tough to repeat that, but again, he had 14.9 expected receiving touchdowns. So, he again actually underachieved his expected touchdowns based on the usage.
30:13He led all wide receivers in end zone targets. He had 12 more than any other wide receiver. He led all receivers in
30:19red zone targets. And again, again, like Stafford's not going to throw as many touchdowns as he did last year. Adam's probably not going to average one
30:26touchdown a game again this year. But like all that stuff worked for the Rams last year. This was one of the best
30:31teams in football. The awesome the offense was awesome. Like why would they go away from that too much? I think they're going to continue to lean on
30:36Devonte Adams when they get inside the red zone. Like you said, Theo, they didn't really add anything to the offense. It's going to continue to be
30:41concentrated. Um I get it. Adams age worries me a little bit. the, you know, lower body injuries worry me a little
30:48bit, but a wide receiver 26 ADP, I think on a per game basis, he's going to crush that.
30:52>> Yeah. And it's interesting when it comes to Devonte Adams because people talk about the regression uh touchdown wise, he was still a big-time touchdown
30:59producer for very bad offenses when he was on the Raiders. So, he had eight touchdown grabs in 2024, eight in 2023,
31:07and then that's bracketed by two 14 touchdown catch seasons in 2025 and 202022. certain players are just really good at something and it's hard for us
31:17to chase touchdowns, but with Dvonte Adams, that's really the the way he's gonna generate his fantasy points. 33 and a half years old though, Jared,
31:25that's like the one thing where if you're going to if you're going to be an agist, now is sort of the time. Um, your
31:31thoughts on on just the age of Devonte Adams? Do you worry about this or is he sort of just like a oneonone here? Yeah,
31:39again like we we see these elite again, I'm not sure Adams is Hall of Fame worthy, but he's he's a very very good
31:45NFL wide receiver. We see those types produce into their mid30s. And man, last year, I'm glad you brought this up because I wanted to make this other note
31:52on Devonte Adams. Last year, there was no signs of decline. 84 wide receivers ran at least 250 pass routes last year.
32:00Adams ranked first in fantasy points separation score and first in fantasy points win rate. So that's, you know, their fantasy points metric, watching
32:09the tape, seeing how much separation he's creating, see seeing if he's, you know, winning his one-on-one battles with defensive backs. And Adams was the
32:16best wide receiver in the league at that last year. So really on tape based on those metrics, no signs of decline from
32:21Devonte.
32:22>> Yeah. And and you talk about like Devonte Adams has talked about and I've heard of some of these older players
32:26talking about like tracking their miles per hour. Um, and you're really not seeing a huge like drop off in terms of
32:33like the miles per hour data. Uh, when it comes to Devonte Adams, so he's an interesting one. I'll give you old guy
32:39versus old guy. Um, ADP head-to-head choice. Mike Evans versus Dvonte Adams.
32:44I talked about this one with Dave a little bit. Um, it feels like Mike Evans, people, a lot of people including
32:50myself have sort of said he could be this year's version of 2025. Devonte Adams Adams. Which one of these two are
32:57you betting on?
32:59>> Yeah. Yeah. I'm looking at the rankings.
33:00We have Adams just ahead of Mike Evans.
33:03So, I'll I'll lean that direction. But I do think they're very similar profiles, right? Like older guys, but we're still getting it down. Like Mike Evans was
33:09still very good in the few games he was healthy last year. And I'm with you. You know, he he could score 15 touchdowns
33:13this year. It would not surprise me.
33:15>> Another player who could have a ton of touchdown grabs is Terry McLaren. Uh we're talking about another sort of older wide receiver. Mcccluren uh 2024
33:24had a massive season with Jaden Daniels.
33:2713 touchdown catches, nearly 1100 receiving yards. He smashed his ADP. And then last year, uh, drafters were really chasing McLaren up. It was sort of the
33:37highest we've ever seen Terry McLaren drafted. A lot of, uh, I remember FFPC managers sort of the thing to do was at
33:45the 3, four turn, draft Jaden Daniels and Terry McLaren together. That failed miserably. Now you're having a Terry McLaren sort of bounceback vibe. Uh,
33:55tons of great positivity coming out of Washington from David Blau, coming out of from the players. It's really feels like a Terry McLaren offense. He's wide
34:05receiver 23 in AP. But when you look at sort of the wide receiver target competition, it's incredibly minimal for him and we've already seen it. Do you
34:15think McLaren is priced correctly where he could have another huge smash year?
34:20>> Yeah, I think he's a bit underpriced at wide receiver 23 right now. Um, and you know, Mcccluren is the newest addition
34:27to my flag plant list, and it's I'm ready to go all in on him now that I seems very likely to very unlikely to
34:34land in Washington after his, you know, >> is Brandon going to play another down in the NFL, Jared. Is he ever going to play
34:38in the NFL again?
34:40>> I I' I'd say it's less than 5050 at this point. And I I had actually been drafting him quite a bit and I'm I'm
34:45kind of mad at myself that I have because now I kind of think he might end up just not not playing again because I
34:49Washington just seemed like the perfect landing spot for both team and player.
34:53But um kind of seems like Aayuka has burned that bridge. So I'm kind of all in on Mccclure now because like like why
34:59can't he get to 26 27% of this team's targets. I mean it is probably Chico Conquo as their number two target and
35:07then it's you know Antonio Williams.
35:08It's it's that Jaylen Lane you mentioned earlier. Um I mean there's not much there. So I think McLaren could dominate targets for this team. He was still good
35:17last year on a you know per routeout basis despite the injuries to both him and quarterback Jaden Daniels. actually set a careerhigh in yards per route last
35:25year. Uh Terry McLaren did. He was 13th among 76 wide receivers in yards per out. So, still a good player. And again,
35:31I think he's going to see a ton of targets. And remember, just go back to the 2024 season. Really still really the
35:36only time that Terry McLaren has like been healthy and gotten good quarterback play in the NFL. And he finished wide receiver 16 that year in fantasy points
35:44games. I think you could see another similar type of fantasy season from McLaren this year.
35:47>> Yeah. And we talk about offensive coordinator upgrades here, like the Cliff Kingsberry, uh, you know, the the production he had with Cliff Cliff
35:55Kingsberry, um, that was unbelievable.
35:58But in terms of the creativity and how they used him, basically they would park Terry McLaren on one side of the field
36:05and that was it. It sounds like David Blau has plans to sort of move him side to side, feature him in in like dynamic
36:12ways. Maybe we see a little bit more like easy button targets for McLaren.
36:16And I do think despite being uh turning 31 this season, there's a great chance that we see Terry McLaren have a
36:23careerhigh in targets, it's pretty low bar for a player of his caliber. 134, but that was way way way back. I believe
36:31that was in 2020. I wouldn't be shocked if we get 150 target season out of McLaren. And I'll say with your Brandon
36:38Iayuk like Washington thing, I'll say the one player to keep an eye on with Washington is Stfan Diggs. DMV guy.
36:45seems like there's some mutual interest there and a hole that Washington has. If Stfan Diggs does end up being a Washington commander, would that sort of
36:54change your enthusiasm level for McLaren or would it be that just helps the offense as a whole uh type situation?
37:02>> No. Yeah, that would that would force me to come down on McLaren. Um Stefon Diggs, by the way, was still really good
37:08last year. here. I know, you know, he the Patriots limited his playing time a bit, so the fantasy production wasn't huge, but like on on a per route basis,
37:14Diggs was really strong. He was still a strong target earner. So, and that's the tricky thing about McLaren. You mentioned the target total, Steo, like
37:19he throughout his career has kind of been like a 21 to 23% target share guy, which is like it's a good number, but
37:25it's not like a dominant fantasy wide receiver one level number. So, like if they brought in someone like Steph Diggs, I would kind of probably go back
37:32to projecting McLaren in that, you know, 22%ish target range and that would lower him in our rankings. But I think again I
37:38think as it stands now I think he has a path to like you said you know set career highs in target share in total
37:43targets.
37:44>> So let's also talk about one more wide receiver and I feel like I'm like contractually obligated to talk about Christian Watson on literally every
37:51single show because there's a lot of people like yourself are flaging him.
37:55Jacob Gibbs actually on Jaden Reed. Go and check that podcast out if you're listening on the pod. If you're watching on YouTube it's one of the most recent
38:03ones. But Jacob Gibbs is in on Jaden Reed at cost. But, uh, you were not the only one. I've talked about the upside
38:09outcome for Christian Watson. Um, and I feel like we did this a couple months ago and Watson's ADP continues to climb
38:16and climb and climb. Doesn't hurt that Green Bay gave him a massive, massive contract. But what is the upside outcome look like for Christian Watson this
38:25year? And do you think Green Bay could become a little bit more balanced as an offense overall?
38:31Yeah, I think a more balanced Packers offense and just a more condensed, you know, wide receiver pecking order in terms of both playing time and target
38:39shaft or they kind of been, you know, spreading that out between, you know, four or five guys in the past. Um, so
38:44just with Watson, he was wide receiver 17 in fantasy points per game last year.
38:50Coming off the January 2025 ACL AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC AC
38:53AC AC AC AC ACL tear, um he finished 61st among receivers last year in route rate. He only ran a route on 68% of
39:00Green Bay's pass plays in the games he played. Again, that goes back to, you know, uh the Packers kind of spreading
39:06stuff around at wider sopore last year.
39:08And going back to, you know, this potentially being a more balanced offense, the Packers finished 27th in pass attempts last year. So Watson had a
39:16lot working against him and he still again finished wide receiver 17 in fantasy points per game. Had career bests last year in both yards per route
39:24run and PFF receiving grade. I think you know with Romeo Dobs gone with Dantavian Wix gone at this point it's it's it's
39:32like it's Watson, it's Matthew Golden, it's Jaden Reed. I' I'd be surprised if again we don't see an uptick in playing
39:39time for for all those guys and Watson especially uh especially like you said uh Theo with them giving him that massive contract. So and I get the the
39:47scary thing with Watson to me from a fantasy perspective is that he he does rely on the big plays and the
39:54touchdowns. Like I do think he'll see an uptick in targets this season. Is he going to be a guy that gets 140 targets?
39:59Probably not. You know, I think maybe 110 120. I just I'm willing to count on those big plays and touchdowns, the
40:06touchdowns especially because he just he he gets those end zone and red zone targets we want our receivers to get.
40:13Just, you know, over the last three seasons, Watson has averaged.77 endzone targets per game. To put that in perspective, only nine wide receivers
40:21averaged more than that last year. And that's over a threeseason sample for Christian Watson. Like when this offense gets inside the red zone, gets near the
40:28end zone, they're looking for Christian Watson. So yeah, again, he's not going to be a target hog, but I think he's
40:32going to see an uptick in targets, and I I do expect this guy to continue to be very, very efficient.
40:37>> Yeah, his efficiency last year was sort of through the roof. He was like top five in yards per target. Uh he was uh
40:43top five, I believe, in yards per route run. And then we look at sort of the target share number. Uh right at that
40:49sub 20% target share. like I don't think he's ever going to be a dominant dominant target guy. But if we talk
40:55about maybe we get that number up to like 23% target share, then I think that the upside is immense. And Green Bay
41:01basically told you a lot with the amount of money they paid Christian Watson.
41:04They're viewing him. That's big-time wide receiver one money. And I think they're going to give him wide receiver one usage. Um just such an explosive
41:13player and we could see him get there with a huge touchdown outcome. I believe it was you that made the comparison to
41:202024 Terry McLaren as sort of an upside outcome >> for sure. And you know just getting into the weeds with our projections like we
41:26have Watson projected for a 20% target share right now and he comes out as our wide receiver 19 in in half PPR points
41:34per game. So like Theo if he gets to 23% Yeah. and maintains, you know, even close to the efficiency we've seen from
41:39him the past few years. Like he he he has a path to being a top 12 fantasy receiver. It would take like a big
41:45touchdown rate, but you know, he he's capable of doing this.
41:47>> Yeah. Shout out to Matt Laflur. Let's get him a couple of 3%. We're not asking for much. Just 3% increase there on
41:52target share. And Christian Watson could feed families. Let's talk about tight ends. Uh we'll save the best for last.
41:59Let's go with Daltton Concaid, who we've talked about on a number of times. and sort of just from a like an anecdotal
42:07perspective, it feels like it's the easiest year for me to click on the Daltton King button because it's a very cheap price tag for a player that I
42:17think will be the number two target in Buffalo. Uh King's had some positivity in his career. You know, we saw a 73
42:25catch rookie season. He's got first round pedigree. The last two years have sort of been disappointing overall.
42:32Where are you at on King Kade? Do you finally feel like this could be a like I we'll call it a not really a breakout
42:38year, but maybe the best fantasy football season he's ever had in year four?
42:43>> Yeah, with Concaid, I I just love the upside at cost. You mentioned Theo. This is a guy that was a former first round
42:49pick, had a nice rookie season. He's even, you know, flashed at times the past couple years. And last year, again, he was a disappointment in fantasy, and
42:56that's a large reason why he's going so late in drafts right now.
43:00When Concade was on the field last year, he he was the most efficient tight end in fantasy football on a a per route
43:05basis. So, there were 53 tight ends last year who ran at least 150 pass routes.
43:10Concaid led all 53 in targets per route, yards per route, and fantasy points per route. Uh he actually averaged the most
43:18yards per route from a tight end since George KD in 2020. So, he was super efficient. The problem, of course, was
43:23the playing time. He ran out on just 52% of the Bills passing snaps. And that's partly by design. Like Concade Concincaid's never gonna be an every
43:32snap an every down player. You know, he's his blocking limitations are going to uh prevent that from being the case.
43:38But I think it was partly healthy related too. And Brandon Bean has made multiple comments this offseason that have sort of alluded to the fact that it
43:44was the injuries that kept Concaid from playing more last season. So I think if he's healthier and he's had a healthy
43:50offseason by all accounts so far, you know, he was at a 61% route rate in 2024. He was at a 70% route rate as a
43:56rookie. like I think he can get back to that level if he's healthy. And if he does that and you know maintains
44:02anywhere close to the type efficiency he had last year in in a strong Bills offense. This is an offense that consistently finishes you know top five
44:09in points. Um I again I think Concade's he's not going to threaten the top three. He's not going to, you know,
44:16score with Bowers and McBride and Loveland, but why can't he at least get into that like Sam Leaporta, Tucker Craft, Kyle Pitts tier? I think he can
44:25at least get that high and he's going, you know, three, four rounds after those guys in draft.
44:28>> Yeah, it's it's a super cheap bet to make, especially considering this is the number two target with Josh Allen. So,
44:34like you look at like underdog ADP, a lot of that is is boosted by correlation. Um, and you're still able to get King Kade in that range. There's
44:42going to be home leagues where he's around tight end 15. I think he's very interesting in that range. and you talked about sort of the health factor
44:49where King Kada said that this is the healthiest and the best he's felt in his entire career and it was a PCL injury
44:57but it didn't wasn't like something where they had to give him surgery. It sounds like more it was like a rehab and
45:01rest type thing. Uh and it sounds like he's fully ready to rock. So this could end up being like a post hype uh year
45:08for for King Kade where we saw him steamed up in drafts in year two. We saw last year some enthusiasm and this year
45:16he's just sort of like right there and he's attached to one of the best quarterbacks in football, if not the best, in one of the league's best
45:22offenses and way way way cheaper bet for you to make than like a DJ Moore who's climbing up and up and up if you want
45:29Josh Allen correlation. So Jared, we saved sort of the most fun one for last.
45:34The the first uh podcast slashvideo I dropped over here at Rotoire when I started doing this was uh Darkhorse League winners and one of them was
45:43Colston Lovelin at the tight end position. I've maintained that if we see a non Brock Bowers Trey McBride finish as the tight end one this year. It's
45:52going to be Colston Lovelin. Such an easy click for me and I'm so excited that you're locked in as him being one
45:59of your flag plants as well.
46:01Yeah, I mean it's it's tough to rank Lovelin over McBride and Bowers just because we've seen those guys, you know, get the 25 plus percent target shares
46:08and score and elite level for fantasy over the course of a season and we have Leloin behind those two guys in the
46:14rankings. But even if if you look at our ceiling projections, you know, we project the upside on all these guys.
46:19Lovelin is right there with McBride and Bowers. And to me, that's why he's so exciting is that you're getting this guy
46:25a round and a half to two rounds after Bowers and McBride. I think by the end of the season he could be right where
46:30right there with those guys, you know, scoring even with them, potentially even outscoring them if things click. Love was an awesome prospect coming into the
46:38league. You know, he goes 10th overall.
46:39He kind of shares time with Cole KT for most of last season. So never was, you know, a true fantasy league winner until
46:47the very end of the season. He was unleashed over the final five games for the Bears, including the playoffs, and was just unbelievable. He ran out on 80%
46:55of pass plays in those five games. 25% target share. Again, that's the type of target share we see McBride and Bowers
47:01getting. So, he's already done that, you know, albeit over a smaller sample. And what I love most about Lovelin is that
47:07his efficiency got even better over those final five games versus his first 13. His yards per out climbed from 1.89 to 2.49. His fantasy points per out from
47:1843 to 0.52. So, a lot of a lot of times we see these young players like get into bigger roles and their efficiency kind
47:24of suffers a bit in those bigger roles.
47:27That was not the case with Level. He remained super super efficient on a per target basis. And he's just he's set up
47:32perfectly this year, right? You get Ben Johnson second year in Chicago. Caleb Williams third year in Chicago, DJ Moore gone, he leaves behind 85 targets. This
47:40should be a really concentrated pass game. That's why I think you can even, you know, bet on Coulson Lelin and one
47:45of the receivers because I just think you could see Lovelin plus Burden plus Odun getting like 65 to 70% of this
47:52team's target. So, I just think it's going to be super concentrated. I think Lovelin's just in for a a big season. I
47:56just I like the price tag you can get him at compared to the, you know, his top two tight ends.
48:00>> Yeah, I I'm completely with you. I actually have him close enough to Trey McBride in my overall rankings where it
48:06makes Lovelin just a much easier click.
48:09and Lovelin when you get him in Titan Premium it's a little bit harder conversation to have but in uh regular you know PPR leagues like NFC sleeper uh
48:19you're able to get him in the late fourth/fifth round I think he could be a massive massive edge pick there in so
48:25many ways there's also a chance he just goes absolutely nuts in the touchdown department we've already seen a tight end one overall season in recent memory
48:34with Sam Leaporta with Ben Johnson in Detroit and I would argue that Lovelin has a exceedingly higher target total to his name. Like that season for Leaporta
48:44was fantastic where Laaporta had 120 plus targets. I mean, if it all goes right for Coulson Lovelin, you're talking about 135 targets here. Uh and
48:52that sort of efficiency and that sort of big playability, that's scary, scary stuff at the tight end position. If you want access again to all of my rankings,
49:01go check them out at Rotowire. The code Theo gets you 15% off. and go check out everything Jared's putting out there at
49:09Draft Sharks. Some really awesome stuff from Jared and the team over at Draft Sharks. Uh, also, if you're listening to this on the podcast, hit the subscribe
49:17button. And if you have time, write a podcast review. Doesn't cost you anything. Helps us out a lot. Same thing with YouTube. If you're watching this on
49:24YouTube, hit that subscribe button. Um, we love it getting those new subs and we get to bring in guests like this Jared
49:31Small guy. Uh, Jared, let everybody know once again what you have coming out.
49:36Yeah. So again, those uh premier articles will be coming out soon, the comeback pick, the bust, and the breakout. Um, of course, our rankings
49:42stay updated and our projections stay updated, you know, every day leading up into week one. And I want to shout out
49:46to our draft war room, which I I don't draft without it. Uh, it's going to sync up to your league platform. Uh, it's
49:54going to give you customized rankings based on all your league roles, all your league rules. And it it's a live draft
49:58sync as well, meaning as players come off the board in your draft, they're going to come off the draft for room
50:03automatically. So you have updated rankings throughout your draft. Don't quite worry about, you know, crossing guys off or, you know, clicking the
50:08buttons to remove guys from your rankings. All that is done automatically. So it just makes the whole drafting experience a lot more
50:13enjoyable. Let you kind of, you know, focus in more than you would otherwise.
50:16>> Yeah. And people also want to hear about this year's version of 2021 Cooper Cup, too. So make sure you check out stuff,
50:21Jared. Yeah. Stay tuned for Jared on that one. And stay tuned for Rotoire.
50:25We're going to be dropping shows like this every single day of July. Stick with us here. We're going to help you
50:30crush your leagues this season.
