0:05Drafting players on new teams has been fantasy football cheat code for multiple seasons in a row. Breaking them all down with Dave Klug of Football Guys, Theo
0:15Greinger, lead fantasy analyst, Roawire.
0:18Dave, the drafting these players when they get to new teams, whether they're traded or whether they're free agents, has been like a massive massive edge for
0:28fantasy managers. And I think it's a very like like multifaceted reason. I think a lot of times the long and short
0:36of it is fantasy managers get into this groove where they think they know what a player is and a new opportunity is
0:44presented and they don't always bake that in. your thoughts on this, Dave?
0:48>> You know, this is one of my favorite topics to talk about, and I'm glad that you wanted to do this today because this
0:52is such a layered discussion here. Like, this isn't just looking at the stats and saying, "Well, this is what this player
0:57has done for the last few years. We can look at that average and expect that going forward." Like, this you need to
1:01understand coaching tendencies and schematic fits and historical usage.
1:06Like, there's so much that goes into this. And I think that's what makes it such fun discussions. Now, I do want to
1:10say though, like you said, a cheat code.
1:12And I think that yeah, you can get really, really good values when players move teams. But there's also some really big downside that players that we think
1:19are good then go to a new team and get exposed to not be the player that we thought they were. Like I remember Kenny
1:25getting a massive contract for the Giants. Everyone thought he was going to be the wide receiver one and just faceplanted there. So I think you know
1:31what we look at when these players move teams is that some players can you know realize this upside that we didn't know
1:36that they had and other players can be exposed and just face plant in fantasy.
1:40So, I think this is one of the most important things and topics that you can get a full understanding of going into
1:46the season.
1:47>> Yeah. I mean, you for every Miles Sanders to the Carolina Panthers, there's a bunch of other guys who have hit. I I would say that I completely
1:55agree with you. Like, there's going to be players on this list we talk about that do not hit at ADP, but it's been a
2:01a really solid percentage. It's way higher than a 50% hit rate over the last couple years. And it's specifically it's been running backs who sign as free
2:11agents and then it's been wide receivers who are traded in the off season. Both of those have had hit rates. Tight ends.
2:18We've also seen some players. It's a little like movement is a little less frequent. We've even seen some big hits at the quarterback position. And I think
2:26it's sort of like the drafters years ago who refused to draft rookie wide receivers and then we'd find that edge and then you get your Jamar Chase in
2:34like round six when he's a rookie. You get your Malik Neighbors at a nice price tag when he's a rookie. There's always
2:40going to be those wait and see it first drafters in your league, Dave. It's like human nature where there's certain fantasy managers love taking on risk.
2:50Certain fantasy managers love taking on new things and then there's other fantasy managers who are just going to naturally gravitate towards last season
2:58stats, last season things that they know worked well. Um it's not a great game to play if you're a need to see it first
3:07manager. And I completely agree with you on like wide receivers that get traded or a much better hit rate because the
3:12reality is like wide receivers hold so much value in the NFL that teams don't let talented wide receivers hit the market. they either retain them
3:20themselves or they trade them. So, that is very important when I'm looking at these guys. Like, the receivers that traded are guys that I'm going to be
3:27much more excited about than the guys that a team just willingly let walk off the roster without any sort of return.
3:33And then with running backs, you know, that just comes down to how teams want to build, like team building philosophy there. You have a lot of teams that just
3:39want to keep hitting on these young rookies and bringing the guys in on rookie contracts. You have other teams willing to pay for running backs in free
3:45agency. So, as we talked about, you know, just such a layered and nuanced topic here. Really excited to get into it.
3:52>> Yeah, for sure. And and just looking at like sort of the history of these traded wide receivers last year, George
3:57Pickkins, massive, massive impact, especially where you drafted him in ADP and the wide receiver one production that he provided, outscored his teammate
4:06CD Lamb on a points per game basis.
4:08Pickins was just simply outstanding. Uh DK Mechaf last year traded as well. I would call DK's season sort of a a push.
4:16If not, I'd give him like a C++. It wasn't something that tanked you. If you took DK Mechaf at cost, you still
4:22enjoyed some spike weeks. Um, it wasn't like a catastrophic season. It certainly wasn't like a massive hit. Debo Samuel actually was a win at his ADP. Average
4:33double- digit points per game. You're getting them super cheap all off season and he provided like some quick start value at the beginning of the year. So,
4:40like of all all three of those guys, interesting. But Pickkins clearly the winner. Go back a season before Jerry Judy in counting stats finished as a
4:48low-end wide receiver. One when he got to Cleveland. Absurd. DJ Moore in that big uh Bryce Young uh trade the season
4:55before going back to you know 2023. Uh had that wide receiver one season and then before that it's just like hit
5:03after hit after hit. Tyreek Hill, Stfane Diggs. I mean like the list goes on of guys who just simply crushed their ADP.
5:10So, let's go ahead and talk about it.
5:12The biggest name at the top of the food chain. And and Dave, one of my least favorite things is when I hear a podcast
5:18like giving inaccurate ADP. You're in theFC streets right now with all the content you're doing over at Football Guys. Like, I hear these people saying
5:27AJ Brown, third round target. And I laugh and I turn off the show cuz AJ Brown, you're seeing some of the
5:33sharpest drafters in the country right now in the high stakes in FFPC and NFC pushing him up to really top five wide
5:42receiver land. I saw AJ Brown going in the first round of an NFC draft last night. There's a couple of like drafters
5:49sort of in the no in FFPC that have the ability to sort of move ADP. guys who have won millions of dollars in fantasy
5:56football are pushing AJ Brown into like the mid-second round in FFPC. AJ Brown is is to the moon for some of these
6:03people. And I think it's interesting when we talk about traded wide receiver.
6:07We talk about a wide receiver who with a history of wide receiver one production.
6:11And when we talk about Josh McDaniels who twice has had a wide receiver traded to his team that he's running offensively who's led the NFL in
6:19touchdown catches. You had the Randy Moss season in New England way way long ago when he had like 20 plus touchdown
6:26catches. And then you had Devonte Adams in his first year traded to the Raiders.
6:32I believe he had 14 that year which led the NFL. Is AJ Brown a threat to lead the NFL in touchdown catches this year
6:38in New England?
6:39>> Absolutely. I don't see how you can't love this move. And you talk about him getting moved up. I did a draft last
6:43night on NFC where he went uh 11th overall. Like he is moving inside of round one now. And I don't think that's
6:49crazy whatsoever when you think about this upside. I mean, last year we know everything about the Philadelphia Eagles, like a low volume pass offense.
6:56We have some question marks about Jaylen Herz's efficiency as a passer. And AJ Brown, who was dealing with an early season injury, still finished as a top
7:0510 wide receiver in a not good situation. Now, we look at him going to New England where last year Stefan Diggs
7:11hit a thousand yards last year in a part-time role. Like 58% snap share on the on the year and he hit 1,000 yards.
7:17So, we know that there's an opportunity here for a wide receiver one to step in.
7:21And you talk about like some of these big players that we have seen move to new teams and immediately break out. And
7:27I think AJ Brown like he kind of channels that like '9s 2000s alpha wide receiver energy. And when I look at some
7:35of those guys like Terrell Owens, every time he would go to a new team would just break out in a massive way. I think
7:40about Brandon Marshall, every time he would go to a new team. We remember that 15 touchdown season with the Jets. We
7:45remember him coming to Chicago and immediately solidifying himself there.
7:48And I see AJ Brown as that type of emotional player and we saw that early in his career. He went from Tennessee to
7:53Philadelphia, immediately had a career season. I think he's still got plenty left in the tank here. This is exactly what the Patriots needed. So, I'm
8:01drafting him at the one-two turn without hesitation. I can't get him quite up as high as like a top five wide receiver. I
8:07still do prefer Cidi Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Amanra St.
8:11Brown. But I think if you're sitting there at the one-two turn, we see a lot of running backs getting pushed up there
8:16and especially in formats where you're able to start three wide receivers, full PPR formats, anything that has any slight preference towards wide receiver
8:24scoring. I am a-okay taking AJ Brown at that one two turn.
8:27>> Yeah. And and the NFC it's three wide receiver starts plus a flex. FFPC you have two flexes, two wide receiver
8:33starts. But I'm with you. Uh my rankings are going to be available over at Rotoire any day. You can use the code
8:39Theo15 to get 15% off of any sub. Um, and when those debut, I'm going to have AJ around 18 overall. And I feel like
8:49that's that's about right for me where I would be comfortable drafting him in like your regular PPR league. Um, but it
8:55might be a little too low, Dave, in terms of what the ceiling outcome could be. And a shout out to my former podcast
9:00co-host like Scott Barrett. Scott Barrett uh when we did School of Scott over at Fantasy Points, he talked about, you know, how Drake May likes to spread
9:08it around.
9:09>> Drake May liked to have spread it around. He didn't have an AJ Brown. Like it's a little different, you know, when
9:15you have like Stfan Diggs at 31 years old and then you're trying to mix it up with some other guys like Diggs. Like
9:21that was a great point by you. Diggs averaged 12 and a half points per game last year in PPR. Um, another wide
9:26receiver who hit on a new team last year, Stfan Diggs at ADP. But, uh, 12 and a half points per game for Stfan
9:32Diggs. So, AJ Brown, I think realistically could be like 17 plus points per game this year. Really, really a strong click. Agree with you on
9:39that one. Let's keep it going on the traded wide receiver front. You're a Bears guy. DJ Moore last year sort of
9:45cratered. Didn't hit an ADP. Like really disappointing. Had some productivity down the stretch though. was a little bit better on the second half of the
9:53season than the first half of the season. Ends up getting traded to the Buffalo Bills, lands perfectly, is now the wide receiver one attached to Josh
10:02Allen, which if we remember was incredible value for Stfane Diggs. You also get the reunion with Joe Brady where DJ Moore played with him as a
10:11young player in Carolina, had some success there. The vibes are pretty good. Um, I'm not like all over DJ Moore. I know you had a more bullish
10:20take on him, I believe, when we recorded a couple of weeks ago. Where are you at on DJ Moore? Where's your comfort level
10:25with him? Are you pushing him up or sort of taking him at cost?
10:28>> I am still maintaining that bullish take. And I don't know if you saw the news story this morning, Theo, but I
10:33love this. DJ Moore in Buffalo walked into a sports store and he saw all of his t-shirts with his name and jersey
10:38number on there, saw that they were selling these t-shirts at the store, gave the clerk uh $1,200 and said, "Give the rest of my shirts out for free to
10:46anybody that walks in here." So vibes through the roof. Like you know, we just love that sort of stuff. But I think
10:51this is such a good fit for DJ Moore.
10:53And I also think that it was a very bad fit in Chicago. Like Ben Johnson is such a meticulous, detailoriented coach. It's
11:01all about being on your spot, running the offense the way that he hasn't drawn up. And that's not really what DJ Moore
11:06does. DJ Moore does a lot of the offscript stuff. And we can look at two of his biggest moments from last year.
11:11Of course, there were the big plays. You know, he had that unbelievable catch in the back of the end zone. He had that uh
11:15game-winning touchdown reception against Keshawan Nixon. But I remember week one there was a play where DJ Moore was supposed to run his route and he
11:22freestyled a little bit. He let off the throttle and tried coming back in and Caleb Williams overshot him in the end
11:28zone and missed what should have been an easy touchdown. And then we've got the season ending with what should have been
11:33an easy throw and catch to DJ Moore, but he flattened out his route like he wasn't supposed to. The ball gets
11:38picked, ends up ending the Bears season.
11:40So, I think that DJ Moore just does a little bit too much freelancing uh route running. I had Chris Harris on my show
11:45recently and he kind of joked around saying that he's like a jazz player out on the field just bopping his way around
11:50on the routes. But that's exactly what Josh Allen wants. And Matt Harmon did a fantastic job writing an article exactly about this where he was kind of reading
11:57the tea leaves and putting the pieces together before the trade happened. But he talked to Josh Allen and Josh Allen said, "I don't really care about a
12:03receiver being on his spot. I just want a guy that can get open and then I trust my arm to be able to get the ball into
12:08that window." So, I love this fit. I know DJ Moore is an aging receiver who has had down production over the last
12:15few years, but this is one where I'm able to just like not look at the numbers, just look at the schematic fit,
12:21and I get really excited about DJ Moore being that wide receiver one in Buffalo.
12:25>> Yeah. I mean, you make a great case for him. I guess for me, DJ Moore, I'm probably in line at ADP and probably
12:31like in line on taking him at cost.
12:34Like, he's wide receiver 24 in FFPC right now. I probably am a little bit lower than that, but I'm probably a
12:42little too pessimistic here. Josh Allen elevates talent around him. And I know people are in the chat are going to say,
12:49you know, Josh Allen also spreads the ball around and sort of the only consistent scorer really is Josh Allen besides Stfan Diggs at the wide receiver
12:56spot. But we've seen uh we've seen DJ Moore put up spike weeks. I think that ability is there. I think they're going
13:03to attempt to feature him. They gave up the second round pick for him. So, I guess wide receiver 24 for me, it's
13:09about right. And if I It's splitting hairs. I might have him at somewhere in the wide receiver 22 to 26 range. Um, I
13:16don't think he's going to completely smash at ADP, but I don't think he's going to get you in trouble. And if
13:22you're a stacker or correlation drafter, I think he is the best p player to pair with Josh Allen. You could go Daltton
13:30King late, but uh I think Josh Allen and DJ Moore, I mean, that's that's a solid pairing there. But the one wide receiver
13:36who was traded that I think is a great target right now is Jaylen Wadd. Uh de Denver gave up a first round pick, a
13:43third round pick, and a fourth round pick for Jaylen Wadd. Wadd to me checks off a ton of boxes as a player who might
13:51not go fullon George Pickins. Might not have the ceiling of an AJ Brown, but I do think wide receiver one land is in
13:58the wheelhouse for Wadd. Denver was fourth overall in in pass attempts last year as a team, which is a little bit
14:06surprising to some, but they were fourth overall. The offensive environment is really strong there. I get it that Courtland Sutton is still there, but
14:14Wadd to me is going to be the alpha in this offense. Your thoughts on Wadd at cost?
14:19>> So, I think he's fine at cost. Like, I don't have a hard fade on him. He's not a guy that I'm aggressively reaching
14:23for, but I am a Bears fan, as you mentioned, but I live in Colorado, so I'm just inundated with a lot of the
14:28Colorado news. And it sounds like the Broncos are still very high on Courtland Sutton and that they kind of brought Jaylen Wadd in to consolidate this
14:36rotational wide receiver too that they had last year where it was, you know, Theo or I'm sorry, uh, Troy Franklin and
14:43uh, Pat Bryan and Marvin Mims and they were just trying to find some semblance of a reliable wide receiver too and they
14:48couldn't find that guy. So, it sounds like they still want Sutton to be the top target here. And I don't know if I'm
14:54buying into that because I think Jaylen Wadd, you know, former first round pick hitting his age a apex right now where
14:59Courtland Sutton is a little bit beyond that. I have been on Jaylen Wadd every single offseason and my my my thesis has
15:06always kind of been the same that we have seen him be a productive fantasy player in multiple ways. His rookie season, you know, the efficiency wasn't
15:12there, but he was an absolute target hog in that offense. And then Tyreek Hill shows up in year two and then the
15:18targets dip, but then he becomes the most efficient wide receiver in football. second in the league in yards per route run, number one in the league
15:23in yards per target. So, I see a guy who can get there in more than one way, but I think my major concern here is that
15:30Courtland Sutton is still going to be a part of this. He is going to be the preferred guy in the red zone with his
15:34contested catch ability and then we just have Shawn Peyton reaches so deep into his personnel bag that we're going to see other receivers involved. We're
15:41going to see the ball get spread around.
15:43So, I don't think that Jaylen Wadd is going to kill you if you draft him. But I do worry about the upside a little
15:48bit, especially with Courtland Sutton still being that guy that I expect to get the majority of the targets in the red zone. Yeah, it's an interesting take
15:56and I think Sutton's a fine click sort of where he goes as well. I think I'm just bullish on this Denver Broncos
16:01offense taking a big step forward. Bo Nicks entering year three. There's been some parallels made by the coaching staff and I between Josh Allen getting
16:11Stefon Diggs in his third year, sort of exploding in production and Jaylen Wadd joining this team. So, I think we're butting heads a little bit on Waddle.
16:19Wadd going at wide receiver 23 overall in ADP uh in FFPC. And shout out to Fantasy Mojo Darren Armani. Uh I pulled
16:27that off this morning there. But for me, Waddle there is such an easy click. So Dave, headtohead, DJ Moore or Jaylen
16:33Wadd? Oh, I prefer DJ Moore by by quite a bit and those guys are going pretty close in ADP, but DJ Moore is a guy that
16:40I'm willing to reach a little bit for to get on my team where Wadd is just somebody that kind of needs to fall at
16:44ADP. But you did mention Bo Knicks and I just want to say that I think Bo Knicks is the biggest winner here and last
16:50night again talking about this NFC draft that I did. You know, I went late round quarterback. I took my QB1 in round 14
16:57and I got Bo Knicks there. Like Bo Knicks has been at worst a backend QB1.
17:02I feel like we haven't even seen the ceiling yet. Now that he has that reliable secondary target, we can see him ascend to being a top five
17:08quarterback. And the fact that I was able to get him in round 14, I mean, there is just no respect right now out
17:13there for Bo Nicks, who should be a huge winner after this waddle trade.
17:22For me, I like I like I like the Bo Knicks take a lot. I think Bo Nicks um is very interesting. you're getting him
17:28sort of mid QB2 land, especially in baseball drafts, and you're able to build all this outstanding correlation.
17:34If you agree with me on Jaylen Wadd, getting a chance to build like the Bo Knicks Jaylen Wadd correlation, that's easy. Um, and then if you agree with
17:42Dave, Courtland Sutton right there, and if you want to dip into one of the running backs like RJ Harvey as a pass
17:48catcher pretty late is still there. So, there's great ways to sort of build correlation. I wonder if Bo Knicks is also a player that if he has the
17:56breakthrough season like Denver is sort of enthu like insinuating, could we get him into a chance that he's one of those
18:03mid QB2 targets that ends up being a viable streamer in single QB formats and reddrafts? I think we could get there
18:09and I think he's really cheap right now.
18:11So, we're butting heads a little bit on Jaylen Wadd, DJ Moore. I'm team Waddle.
18:15Uh Dave is is team DJ Moore. Um but again, I don't I don't hate it. Let's talk about Michael Pitman Jr., the the
18:22sort of the forgotten man of the traded wide receivers. Very simply, who should be the first Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver off the board this year? Should
18:30it be DK Mechaf or should it be Michael Pitman Jr.?
18:34>> You know, right now I see DK Metaf going first, but to me, Michael Pitman is such a better fit in this offense. you look
18:40at what he does like he is that gritty going across the middle catching contested balls immediately getting separation where DK Metaf I think they
18:47tried using him in that role early in the season but that's not really his bag like he isn't that guy who's going to
18:53catch balls across the middle of the field get lit up and then just get right back up and line up for the next play.
18:57He is more of your finesse speed guy. He likes to play outside the numbers and I think maybe 10 years ago there would
19:03have been a fit for that in an Aaron Rogers offense. But Aaron Rogers doesn't have that arm strength that he used to.
19:08We're not going to be seeing those deep shots to DK Metaf like we saw to Jordan Nelson. So, I see Pitman as that kind of
19:14do it all guy. He's not going to come off the field and he earns his opportunities doing the dirty work as a
19:20blocker and taking those hits across the middle of the field. So, I love love love this fit and I do think that having
19:27Pitman there, having a reliable target across the middle of the field can help DK Metaf take a little bit of pressure
19:33off of him, opening him up outside the numbers. So, I think this is what was really missing for from the Steelers
19:38offense. I think this opens everything up for Pat Frymouth as well for DK Metaf, but I think that Pitman, you know, he's the guy that's kind of going
19:46forgotten in drafts right now. And I don't think it's out of question at all to project him to lead the team in
19:51targets this year.
19:52>> Yeah, it's four out of the last five years Michael Pitman has finished at with at least the wide receiver 26 in
20:00points per game. I'm with you. And it's funny, we're starting to see the ADPs converging. I think early on in the
20:06draft process for for like the Siko drafters like like ourselves who were drafting in May uh and drafting in April even there was a little bit of a gap
20:14between Pitman and DK but in the most recent drafts they're both sort of right there at low-end wide receiver threeland. I think there's a chance that
20:23one of them really beats their ADP. The Mike McCarthy offense has always been pretty beneficial for wide receiver production. They're going to be an 11 a
20:30lot. They're going to have three wide receivers on the field a ton. But I'm with you. I think Michael Pitman is the
20:34best bet to lead the team in targets and catches and I'm able to get him at a very cheap price tag. Again, even last
20:40year that he averaged 11.9 points per game. That's four out of the last five years he's been at least wide receiver
20:4826 in points per game. Had that really disappointing 2024 season. But go back to like 2023, 156 targets. 2022 141 targets. So, we've seen it when the
20:59people want to use Pitman as a big-time target earner. He's gotten there and he's still got a little gas in the tank.
21:04Only 28 years old. Uh we talked about a number of wide receivers who were traded. Let's talk about the big free
21:10agent acquisition and that's Mike Evans.
21:12Tons of positivity. Some great vibes with Mike Evans right now in San Francisco. Um everybody's saying the right things here like the Beat
21:20reporters, the coaching staff. If you believe in positive coach speak, media speak, then Mike Evans seems like a player you should be targeting. a lot of
21:28the data surrounding Evans in terms of his separation ability, he hasn't really regressed in that department. Um, and you look at the the teammate target
21:37competition, Ricky Persol always banged up. Uh, Dejon Stribbling, second round pick, who we don't think is going to be a big target earner. And then George KD
21:46is going to most likely start the year, I think, probably on the pup. I know there's been some conflicting reports on
21:52that. I don't trust KD to be out there game one. Um, where are you at on Mike Evans in this role? Could this be the
21:592026 version of 2025 Dvonte Adams and the guy just goes nuts with a bunch of touchdown catches? I think that's the
22:06hope and I think that's the only real out for Mike Evans is that he can be that guy who just comes down with I mean
22:11we saw Devonte Adams last year a touchdown per game when he was on the field and I think that's the hope with
22:15Mike Evans. But this is one where I think we're going to disagree a little bit, Theo, and uh there's going to be
22:20some disagreements on this show. But, you know, when I look at this fit here, I don't really understand it because like we know Shanahan, so much of this
22:28offense is predicated on getting the ball to receivers and allowing them to create after the catch. And that's just not who Mike Evans is. He has never once
22:35been above league average in yards after the catch per reception. Last year of 122 qualifying receivers, he was 121st in yards after the catch per reception
22:44behind only Kahan Booty. So, to me, this just kind of feels like a weird signing.
22:48And we talked about it, like wide receivers who get traded end up doing really well with their previous teams.
22:53And a lot of times when we see these bigname guys hit the free market, it's because the team that has been with them
22:58long term realizes that they don't have much left in the tank. So, when I see Tampa Bay, where Mike Evans has been
23:04there for over a decade, just willing to let him walk in free agency, not even trying to trade him before his
23:09contract's up, that does raise some red flags for me going into his age 33 season. you know, we finally have that
23:16thousand yard streak is broken. I don't want to make that the whole crux of my argument, but there is something there
23:21that like, you know, we saw them getting force-fed targets late in the year the last couple of seasons to keep that
23:26streak alive. Without that on the table, I don't know if that's going to happen.
23:29I'm also, as we've talked about on previous shows, I'm more of a believer in dribbling than I think a lot of other
23:34people are. I also am still keeping a light on for Ricky Pierall, who has had some unfortunate injuries for the last
23:39couple of years, but has looked phenomenal when he's on the field. So, I think Mike Evans, the out here, as I let
23:45off this talking point, is touchdowns.
23:47You know, he can come down with 15, 18 touchdowns and payoff there, but this isn't a target earner. This isn't a guy
23:53who uh creates after the catch, and there's intense target competition in this San Francisco offense. So, I hate to say it, but Mike Evans, fantastic
24:02player. I expect him to be in the Hall of Fame at some point, but he is on my fade list this year as a guy that I just
24:07have not been drafting.
24:09>> Yeah. And it's funny. I I for this one I I can make an argument for Evans, but I think that the Devonte Adams thing
24:16influenced this signing so much. And I think it's the 49ers and sort of the arms race here where they're going up
24:22against Seattle. They're going up against the Rams. And I don't love the idea of throwing a 33y old in the mix
24:29with 30-year-old Christian McAffrey, 30 plus year old George KD, and just sort of throwing this old guy strategy out there. Um I worry a little bit about
24:37this, too. I think you're right that the the way that he burns people is he catches a bunch of touchdowns and they
24:43really focus hyperfocus in on using him as this big-time red zone target. Um, but I'm not really clicking that button either. There's other guys around Mike
24:53Evans right now in ADP. you can still draft Devonte Adams literally right next to him and we know Dvonte Adams it works
24:59well and it's sort of that thesis is there and Dvonte Adams I think it would be very surprising if he doesn't have at
25:05least like a 21 22% target share opposite Puka Nakua and what should be really consolidated and then you talked about like the DJ Moors the Waddles both
25:14of those guys younger wide receiver and then you get for me if I'm going to chase it in that range I'd rather take
25:20Carnell Tate than Mike Evans I know Sacrilege I want to Carell Tate, but Christian Watson, Carell Tate, there's some exciting clicks right there.
25:30>> JMO and I think that uh BTJ a little bit later. Um even if you're into Parker Washington, if I'm chasing like a big
25:37time touchdown scorer, BTJ might get there. So, I think we're sort of in line. Like Mike Evans, I have some uh I
25:43have some exposure on like underdog best balls, but I don't find myself drafting him in managed reddraft formats. And I think you kind of tell yourself the
25:53ultimate truth when you're on the clock, Dave. That's like the one of the truest things in life is clicking that button
25:58when you're OTC. Let's talk about a deep wide receiver that I think we're both a little bit interested in. Jaylen Naylor,
26:05who came over from It basically goes like this. Vegas tried to sign Alec Pierce. They went at Alec Pierce pretty hard. And when Alec Pierce resigned with
26:13Indianapolis, within three hours, Jaylen Naylor inks up with that team. And this was an interesting one because the V Vegas Raiders had a hole for a wide
26:24receiver one. Obviously Brock Bower is going to lead them in targets. We know Ashton Genty will be utilized in the passing game, but they had a hole for a
26:31wide receiver one and they go with this player who's been pretty interesting in terms of his separation skills in Minnesota as the wide receiver three.
26:40Naylor had some very strong games last year, even when JJ McCarthy was was starting. Um, Naylor's really interesting because I think this Clint
26:48Kubak playa action heavy scheme could benefit Naylor. And I think we could look back from now and Naylor is not a
26:55player that I think is going to reach these heights of these other guys. But we could look back a couple months from
26:59now and say, "Oh, Jaylen Naylor, he's like wide receiver 32 right now. We should have drafted him in every single basketball league." And you know, I
27:05think the the Jaylen Naylor uh conversation is interesting because I I I think and I could be wrong here, like I don't have any sources inside the the
27:13Vegas front office or anything like that, but the way that they were moving through free agency going after Alec Pierce, going after Jaylen Naylor, I
27:19think they were also operating under the expectation that they were going to have the Raiders 13th overall pick because they had that Max Crosby trade was done
27:26at the time and then it was after everybody had signed throughout the legal tampering period that Crosby ended up or the the Ravens pulled out of that
27:34deal. And then I feel like the Raiders were just kind of like hoping that they could use that 13th overall pick on a
27:40wide receiver because Alec Pierce, Jaylen Naylor, good wide receivers, but those are secondary tertiary options you want on your uh on your team, not a guy
27:47you want to build the offense around. So that to me, when they backed out of that trade and kind of left the the Raiders
27:53high and dry in the draft with the inability to take a first round wide receiver, that's what made me move Brock
27:57Bowers way up my rankings. And now he projects as the clear top target earner here. So, I do like Jaylen Naylor, but I
28:04also like Trey Tucker. So, when I'm looking at this team and where I expect the targets to go, I mean, Brock Bowers
28:09could have 180 targets in this offense.
28:11And I think Jaylen Naylor great at stretching the field. Trey Tucker, I think, is a little bit more versatile than people realize. You know, we saw
28:17him running some big boy routes last year, but I just think that the the Raiders really got hosed with the Ravens
28:22pulling out of this trade. So, you can throw some late round darts on Jaylen Naylor, but to me, this really just
28:28means that Brock Bowers is one of the best clicks in drafts right now.
28:32>> Yeah, Brock Bowers I'm going to have in my top 10 overall. Even in regular PPR leagues, I'm I'm like I'm head over
28:38heels with Brock Bowers. If you're drafting in tight end premium leagues like the FFPC, it's a different conversation. Um, but if you're in
28:45leagues like underdog, DraftKings, NFC, regular sleeper, regular ESPN or Yahoo formats, like make Brock Bowers one of the foundational targets in your drafts.
28:54I think that will not hurt you. He's a massive edge pick of the tight end position. I think if you're kind of
28:59looking at it like Trey Tucker, if we go back to the Clink Kubak New Orleans season, like the Rasheed Shahed role,
29:07that could be a little Trey Tuckeresque, over the top. But I think Naylor it's I I slightly lean towards Naylor. From an
29:14underdog perspective, I've been getting both because you're getting them like Naylor and Trey Tucker are like wide receiver 60, wide receiver 65 range,
29:24it's almost like a free click. And if you can hit on one of these Vegas wide receivers, I do think that they're going
29:30to hit in a major way. My lean would be towards Naylor because I think he's going to be a defined role. I think if
29:35it's a reddraft, if I'm chasing it in reddraft, I'm probably leaning to Naylor. But I totally get the Trey Tucker in baseball. I mean, we even saw
29:42it last year. Trey Tucker could have those spike weeks. I had an absurd one of those games last year was just
29:48completely 14. It was like a 40 a 40-pointer or something like that in PPR league. So, yeah, I like it. I do think
29:54that chasing this Clint Kubak offense, um, you know, when you get outside of Genty and Bowers, there's going to be another player who at least provides
30:02some utility and probably helps win rates, and it's probably one of those two guys. So, very interesting stuff.
30:08We've talked about the wide receivers who are traded being a huge edge. When we look at running backs, the edge has
30:15been free agent running backs where it's been multiple seasons in a row. we go back to David Montgomery leaving your Chicago Bears uh signing with Detroit
30:25and providing like a huge win. Uh was like a massive ADP win that year.
30:29Probably beat his ADP by about 12 spots.
30:32Then you go to the following year and it was like, oh my gosh, the every single free agent running back is crushing it.
30:38Saquon Barkley was the league winner at the running back position going from New York to Philadelphia. Derrick Henry was almost the league winner going from
30:47Tennessee to Baltimore. Josh Jacobs also in that league winner category. Moving on to Green Bay from the Raiders. Tony Pard was good. Aaron Jones was good. JK
30:59Dobbins was good. I mean, they all hit.
31:01Every single one of them hit that year.
31:03Then we go to last year. It was a little bit under the radar, but free agent running backs continued to shine.
31:08Javvante Williams had the resurgent season in Dallas, was a running back one last year. Then you go down with guys like Kenneth Gainwell, Rico Dowel, and
31:17I'm I'm probably even forgetting one off the top of my head here. Um, they all hit. There was multiple guys who
31:23finished as running back two or better that were free agent running backs.
31:26We've got a huge list of them this year.
31:29Let's go ahead and start out with the big one, Kenneth Walker. Uh, Kenneth Walker, the enthusiasm is fantastic right now going near the one-two turn.
31:38He's a locked in like top 15 uh running back in or excuse me, top 15 pick in ADP in all formats right now. Uh great stat.
31:48This is uh this was actually I think a fantasy life stat, but over the I think Dwayne Mcould have been somebody else.
31:54Over the last two seasons, Kenneth Walker played 60% or more of Seattle snaps in 11 games played. And during these contests, he averaged 18.7 points
32:04per game. So, people point at the sample size that he had throughout last year's uh NFL playoffs into the Super Bowl
32:11where Walker went absolutely nuts. But if you look at just simply playing 60% or more of snaps, he's been fantasy football gold. The problem was Seattle
32:21using Zack Charbanet. But Walker now has the backfield seemingly all to himself.
32:26We've had some discussion from the Kansas City coaching staff. Derek Benemy talked about using Kenneth Walker in the screen game. It sounds like they want to
32:34utilize him as a pass catcher. This feels like a player who could be the 2026 version of 2024 Josh Jacobs, 2024
32:45Derrick Henry and simply crushes it this year. Are you as enthusiastic as I am about Kenneth Walker right now?
32:52>> Not quite. But I also am glad that you didn't say 2024 Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley. I'm not doing it. I'm not doing
32:58Uh, and I'm glad you left that out because I've heard way too many people getting over their skis making the Saquon Barkley comp. Kind of thought
33:04he's not Barkley player.
33:06>> For the record, he will not have 2,000 rushing yards. I want to go on a limb.
33:09I'm going out on a limb on that one, Dave.
33:11>> Yeah, I'm sure you can find a sports book that'll give you some action on that one if you really wanted to. I'm
33:14sure. But, uh, you know, with Kenneth Walker, I know we're supposed to have like strong takes on every player, and this is one that like I think he's
33:21valued kind of fairly where he's going.
33:23I obviously see the upside, but there is some downside here as well. The upside, of course, we have seen Andy Reid lean
33:30on certain running backs throughout his career. Lehawn McCoy, Jamal Williams, early career Kareem Hunt. We have seen that when he has a really talented
33:37running back, he's willing to lean on that guy. We've also seen that when he doesn't have a guy that he fully trusts
33:42that way, we see these frustrating, hard to imagine committees. Now, I think the intention going out and spending the money that they did on Kenneth Walker
33:49was that he can be one of those guys, that he can be a McCoy, a Charles, a Hunt type of player. And I do see him
33:55very similar to LeShawn McCoy where, you know, he does a lot of the big play hunting where he dances around in the
34:01back field, he takes losses, but he's able to offset that with the big plays and the breakaway runs and the explosives. And we have seen that Andy
34:08Reid is willing to live with that type of boom bust type of running back. So, I think that's kind of the upside here.
34:14But the downside is that he doesn't take over that passing game usage. And this is something JJ Zachary talks about quite a bit is that players don't just
34:22like suddenly flip that switch. Like running backs who don't catch passes in college and don't catch passes in the NFL don't just suddenly add that to
34:30their wheelhouse later on in their career. So they can talk about it all they want in the training camp. But we
34:35have to look here that Bashard Smith is a former wide receiver. EMTT Johnson was second in the FBS among receptions for
34:42running backs last year. So they do have two guys that are very good at catching passes. So, I think that's like the only
34:48kind of fear that I have is that if he doesn't get that passing down usage, then he's just kind of a souped-up
34:53Isaiah Pacheco in this offense, but really what it comes down to, it's not that I dislike Kenneth Walker, the player, or the situation or anything
34:59like that. I just find myself preferring the wide receivers and Brock Bowers at that range of drafts. It seems like this
35:05year running backs are really getting steamed up. Everybody's trying to get their running backs early. We see a lot of running back running back starts.
35:11People are drafting like it's 2005 out here. And when I see Drake London, CD Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brock Bowers, Aman Ross, St. Brown sometimes fall in
35:19there, you know, I just prefer that positional value over that bucket of running backs. So, it's not that I have a hard fade on Kenneth Walker, just how
35:28I'm building teams structurally this year. I find myself passing on Kenneth Walker and some of these other running backs going at the one-two turn, taking
35:35the running backs and Brock Bowers there, and then feeling pretty confident with the running backs that I can get in some of the later rounds. I agree with
35:42you that I think that the the that the like robust RB starts could end up catching people this year where you're
35:49seeing so many smart people sort of advocating for running back running back is the best preferred strategy. Um I get it in baseball um where you get that
35:57sort of like predictable weekly volume.
36:00I get my two running backs. But I think from reddraft I'm very much into hero RB this year. I think you can go hero RB or
36:07you can go like with a if you really want to push the chips in modified hero RB where you sort of take your first
36:13running back in like the third round um and sort of just anchor it um and go from there. Uh sort of kind of like we
36:20used to do with zero RB before the running back market shifted. But I do think Walker gives me that flexibility Dave to build my team in a multitude of
36:28ways. If it's tight end premium FFPC, getting access to a Bowowers in round one, anchoring with Kenneth Walker in round two, and then really hitting wide
36:36receiver in like round three and round four and round five where there's some really good values this year. I think Walker, I agree with you that the
36:45history of wide receiver of the of running back like reception production, I think you and JJ are spot on with that. But I do think Kansas City, the
36:53amount of money they paid him, the what his role sounds like. I don't think Brashard Smith and Emma Johnson are going to be as much of a threat. And I
37:02like those guys. I was big on Bashard Smith last year. Emma Johnson's a player that I think you should value as a
37:07high-end handcuff more so than a guy that's going to mix in. I do think he's got a ton of contingent upside in this
37:12offense if Walker misses time, and Walker has missed time. But if Walker can stay up, I think he becomes the offensive focal point. I think they
37:20scheme things for him and I think 300 touches you you brought up Jamal Charles. I think that Walker will have the most touches by a Kansas City Chiefs
37:28running back since Jamal Charles. I think that's valuable and there was a time and place back in the day when Andy
37:35Reid was considered like a running back whisperer in all this production. We haven't seen it in a long time. It could
37:39be this year. So, I'm in on Kenneth Walker cost. Let's just test you on this one. Sort of where you're at. I know you
37:45mentioned you like the wide receivers more in that range, but if people do want to draft running backs, do you prefer Kenneth Walker or Chase Brown?
37:53>> Chase Brown very easily.
37:55>> Okay. Kenneth Walker or Devon Han.
37:58>> Uh I I'm looking at my rankings. I got Han one spot ahead of Walker.
38:02>> Kenneth Walker or Omarian Hampton?
38:05>> I prefer Omarian Hampton as well.
38:07>> So that's sort of where where we're at.
38:09Dave, I'll go a little bit further down the list. Let me let me try.
38:11>> I prefer Kenneth Walker. Eric Henry, Javvante Williams, and the rest of the guys you're probably going to need.
38:16>> Okay. So, so ahead of And then here's one. Saquon Barkley or Kenneth Walker?
38:20>> I prefer Kenneth Walker to Saquon.
38:22>> Okay. So, I'm with you. The new hotness over over the older running back. So, okay. So, we're we're uh not that that
38:28far in line. I think the those guys I brought up all have like tons of upside at the running back position. Um I agree
38:34with you that the the wide receiver like Drake London, AJ Brown, really really strong second round wide receiver targets. And of course, Brock Bowers to
38:42the moon, wherever you can get him. Um, let's pivot over running back. Talked about Kenneth Walker. Let's talk about another free agent running back. Travis
38:51Tienne had a career year last year in the Liam Cohen offense in Jacksonville.
38:55Was one of the biggest ADP hits at the running back position. Was in sort of this uh like people were talking about
39:02it being an ambiguous backfield between him and Bashel Tutin. And it's laughable at this point. We also had the Jaden Blue Javante Williams discourse too.
39:10That's even more laughable. But Travis Tienne ended up with 296 touches last year in Jacksonville. Um was really really strong in terms of the
39:20running back volume, scored a bunch of touchdowns, had some games down the stretch where he caught a bunch of passes and parlayed it into a big
39:27contract with the New Orleans Saints.
39:29The Kell Moore offense runs a ton of plays. It's going to be an uptempo offense with a high number of plays and
39:36it's been a a good source of fantasy football value. Travis ETN though has sort of steamed up in ADP. Last year
39:43were able to get him for a very cheap cost. This year he's up to like right around running back 15. Sort of like the
39:50old school running back dead zone range.
39:53>> I I'm sort of neutral on ETN. I have mixed him in. We took him Dan Williamson and I took him in an FFPC main event
40:01where we started off our draft uh like wide receiver tight end and we needed a running back so we anchored it with with
40:07Travis ETN. Um, where are you at on ETN?
40:10Are you in, out, sort of neutral? You brought up how you're chasing wide receiver in round two? Is ETN a guy that
40:16you might catch up with at running back catch up with um, in round three at running back?
40:22>> So, this is, you know, I do like some of the running backs in this range, but I find myself liking Javvante Williams and
40:27Cam Scataboo and some of the other running backs. So, this just comes down to like I do like ETN, the player. This
40:33is a first round pick that we've seen can handle a big workload, catches passes, scores touchdowns, and I think that Kell Moore has seen the benefit of
40:40bringing in a guy like that. I mean, we just saw two years ago with Saquon Barkley, who we've referenced a handful
40:44of times on this show already. So, I think that's the hope here is that Travis ETN can now be that Saquon
40:50Barkley type of player in the Kell Moore offense. And I do think that long-term, like over the next couple of years, this
40:56is going to work out well for the Saints because ETN is a talented player. They got him on a good four-year deal here.
41:01But for the 2026 projection, last I saw, Alvin Chimera doesn't want to leave.
41:06He's going to be there. And I think when you've got Alvin Chimera on the roster getting paid what he gets paid, they're
41:11not just going to keep him sitting on the bench the entire game. You've got Deon Neil who showed some serious flashes last year as well.
41:17>> Yeah. And I like Deon Neil as well. So I don't want to say that like, you know, ETN isn't going to be the lead back
41:23here. I think that he will be, but it really doesn't take a lot. just, you know, five to six touches a game going
41:29to Devin Neil, four to five targets per game going to Alvin Chimera, and then all of a sudden we're looking at ETN
41:34just kind of getting this 50% workload here where he isn't paying off at ADP.
41:38So, I I do like ETN the player, but when I'm in drafts right now and I see Javvante Williams, Josh Jacobs, David
41:43Montgomery, Cam Scataboo, those guys are all going behind ETN in drafts and I straight up prefer them in my rankings.
41:50And then you also look some of the wide receivers that we talked about. DJ Moore, Jameson Williams, Malik Neighbors, Garrett Wilson, Terry
41:57McLaren, those guys are all going in that same range as well. So, I don't want to fade ETN because I'm a big
42:03believer in the talent. I like Kell Moore. I like the Ascension uh uh trajectory that this Saints offense is on, but that's just a part of the draft
42:12where there are just so many good values there. So, when I'm looking at ETN is just kind of a player that I've got a
42:16neutral take on. There's a handful of players that I have very bullish takes on in that same spot of the draft. So, I
42:22try to mix him in here and there, but he's a guy I'm probably going to be a little bit underweight on this year.
42:27>> I will concede that he's a touchdown regression guy. I think 13 touchdowns is a is a tough order for for ETN. Um, I
42:35think that I'm a little less worried about those other running backs in New Orleans that you are. I will concede though that I think ETN, even though I
42:43took him, it's a I said at the time to Dan, it's like this is a structural pick more so than an edge pick. And I do
42:53think that he's going to be a predictable source of running back volume. Um, and I think he's a player that will produce somewhat I I'd say
43:02that 14 point per game range sounds about right for me, but I don't think he's sort of a league winning value in
43:08round three. you referenced a couple of those like running back values in round three. Like if the Jacobs sort of survives the summer and we don't have
43:15any more further like off the- field news or anything that comes with the commissioner exempt stuff, then yeah, I think Jacobs is is you're betting on the
43:23you're like you're hoping Travis Travis ETN can give you the Jacobs like outcome u based on what the last two seasons
43:30have looked like. I I feel like for me with ETN the big number is the 36 receptions. We we know that ETN if we go
43:38back to 2023 which was his other awesome season he averaged 16.6 points per game and he had 58 catches. So you bring up
43:46Kamara if Kamar is in fact moved on and they do use ETN as more than like an opportunistic pass catcher out of the
43:54backfield. I think that's where he can beat you Dave and he can even like sort of beat my expectations. If he can get
43:59into that 55 catch range up from like the 30s we've seen the last two years.
44:04That's sort of where I'm at. He's a very interesting one. Let us know in the comments where you're at on Travis CTN.
44:09Uh very polarizing at his current cost and again the ADP has moved up. One guy who I can't find too many people out on
44:16him right now and he feels like the Zer RB sort of savior right now. I've seen some exciting builds where people really
44:24anchor it with David Montgomery as like a as like an RB1. very risky, but that's sort of the that's sort of the the zero
44:32RB guy where you can start out your draft and then get David Montgomery in like the the fifth round, late fifth
44:38round, once in a while early sixth.
44:41David Montgomery feels like a player that might move up towards the summer.
44:45Can David Montgomery in his first year as a Houston Texan be the 2026 version of 2024 Joe Mixon who was also traded?
44:55You love those, Dave. You love those historical ones. Um, this year's version of always hits, but David Montgomery, I feel like he's a little older, but the
45:04last two seasons, the volume hasn't been over the top. It feels like he really wants to prove it this year, and Houston
45:10wants to be an incredibly physical team up front. Nico Collins obviously is going to be have a high utilization at the wide receiver position, but in terms
45:18of like establishing themselves in terms of like their philosophy on offense, I think it's going to be a ton of David
45:26Montgomery early on. Where are you at on Donty? One of my favorite picks in drafts this year and I've been talking
45:31about this for months now. Like I feel like I'm just kind of the conductor of the David Montgomery hype train. And you
45:36talk about it, it seems like a lot of people are in. I keep waiting for the ADP to rise, but it isn't. like he is
45:41just sitting there at the four five turn in almost every single draft and it is so hard for me not to click him there. I
45:46have drafted so much David Montgomery and whether you're going hero RB, robust RB, zero RB, it feels like you could just kind of make him work in any build
45:54that you're doing this year. Um and and and we have to like thank Nick Chub because I think Nick Chub going there
46:00coming off that knee injury, you know, no disrespect, Nick Chub, fantastic football player, but he was dust last year. like absolute dust last year. And
46:08I think that's why we're getting this discount on David Montgomery right now because they saw how bad the production was from Nick Chub when we got to
46:15remember two years ago Joe Mixon was a lock for 100 yards and a touchdown almost every single week. So we have
46:21seen that the Texans have shown us exactly how they want to handle this backfield. They want to go out and they
46:25want to bring in these guys that are on the wrong side of the age curve, bring them in on cheap contracts and just run
46:31them into the dirt. So there are some teams like we're going to talk about Seattle. um maybe we won't, but like
46:36Seattle is a team that like they want to just keep bringing these guys in on rookie deals. And then you've got
46:41Houston kind of doing the opposite where rather than spending or the the the draft picks, they're just going to throw those seventh rounders out to bring in a
46:48veteran that they can just ride until there's nothing left there. So, I still think there's a lot left in the tank for
46:53David Montgomery. Like you said, you know, it's been pretty limited usage for the last couple of years. And I think because of that, people forget how good
46:59David Montgomery was in Chicago. This guy was a threeown workhorse in Chicago.
47:04He was averaging 55 targets per season when he was in Chicago. And now I look at this offensive line in Houston. They
47:11made some huge additions here. Bringing in Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith. They drafted Kaylin Rutled. They drafted Marlon Klein, a blocking tight end in
47:18round two. So, they know that pass protection and run blocking was the biggest issue they had last year and made serious investments there. I think
47:25Montgomery is a very good running back.
47:28We have seen that they want to lean on these veterans. So, one of the easiest picks out there in drafts right now. I
47:34cannot believe that he has fallen the way that he is.
47:37>> Yeah. Kalin Rutled, you know, going back to my NFL draft coverage, uh, was it ended up becoming like one of my
47:43favorite offensive line prospects. It's like the more and more you looked into him, I mean, he's just a junkyard dog.
47:48He's a mer. He's incredibly physical.
47:50And I think that pick combined with David Montgomery really kind of shows you where they want to be as a team. You
47:56talk about CJ Strad and like the shortcomings we've seen in in back-to-back playoffs here where they needed to switch things up um and using
48:06David Montgomery I think is going to be a massive thing. So I really feel like the reason the ADP for him hasn't
48:11shifted up. It's because he's surrounded by all these sort of year 2 bet running backs where there's enthusiasm for Quinchon Judkins with some people.
48:19There's enthusiasm with Trayvon Henderson. There's enthusiasm like you said Camp Scaboo. I like Scataboo as well. But you have all these younger
48:26backs and you're OTC looking for a running back and you're like, do I click on the younger back or the old guy. A
48:33lot of times subconsciously you're you're searching for upside there where really the upside could end up being like we saw with Joe Mixon. I mean, we
48:42could I don't know if David Montgomery finishes it, Dave. I don't know if we go back like next year and we're like look
48:47at what David Montgomery did in like weeks 15, 16, and 17. But I do know if I'm looking for a fast start at the
48:53running back position and I want to get off to the fir like September and October, I think if we look at the end
48:58of October, we're going to see David Montgomery with like a 15 point per game average next to his name. And I think
49:03they really really lean into him. So we're both in on David Montgomery at cost right now. Keeping it going.
49:09Kenneth Gainwell 13 points per game last year, 73 catches. The vibes for Kenneth Gainwell are really, really good right now. How good is his role going to be in
49:19Tampa Bay? Are you in on like have we have we reached like sort of an inflection point where you're starting to draft Bucky Irving or are you in on
49:26team Gainwell if you're trying to search for a Tampa Bay running back?
49:30>> Yeah, I feel like the ADPs have moved enough now that like I'm taking Bucky Irving with where he's fallen into round
49:35six. When he was going in round two last year, I was completely out. When he was going round three, four early this off
49:40seasonason, I was completely out. But now falling into round six every now and then, that's a pretty easy click. And I
49:45do like Kenneth Gainwell a lot. There was uh you know I I I I do some film studies when I get bored and last year
49:50I'm sure you remember in the preseason when um Anthony Richardson just got or um yeah Anthony Richardson got blown up and broke his pinky in the preseason and
49:59I went back and I started watching some old Shane Stiken film from his time in in uh Philadelphia to see like who was
50:04supposed to pick that block up and I walked away from that just saying Kenneth Gainwell is a much better running back than people realize like
50:12just so good in the pass blocking game whether it comes to you know picking up blitzers or just getting out there and
50:17running around and being that available target. And I think that what we saw last year in Pittsburgh was kind of the
50:22product of a broken offense. Like things just weren't really working the way that they had hoped. And I think that's why
50:27we saw Gainwell coming in there because he is such a good pass blocker and playing with a 40 plus year old Aaron
50:32Rogers. He was able to keep him upright in the pocket and I think that that the pass blocking turned into route running
50:38turned into receptions and that's why we saw him kind of getting these struggle targets late in the year. It's tough to
50:43project that exact role in a new offense because I don't think that the Buccaneers look at Pittsburgh's offense last year and say that's what we want to
50:50do. But at the end of the day, we still saw Rashad White was in here with a passcatching role and giving some sort
50:56of fantasy value. So, I expect that the main guy is going to be Bucky Irving just because of the electric nature that
51:03we saw from his game at the end of his rookie season. But Gainwell still has some contingent upside. He's going to
51:09have some utilization as a pass catcher as well. So, I don't have a super bullish stance. I feel like he is about
51:15where he should be. I think he's a very underrated NFL running back, but I do worry that if Bucky Irving is healthy,
51:21he's going to be the lead guy here and it's just going to kind of be scraps left over for Gainwell. You talk about
51:26the the coaches, the way that they view Kenneth Gainwell, like year one with Mike Tomlin has a career year. You got
51:34Nick Sirriani would wear like a Kenneth Gainwell t-shirt to like the press conference. loved Kenneth Gainwell, even to his own detriment. So, I think
51:42coaches do gravitate towards him and his skill set, his pass blocking ability, his ability to stay upright, and his pass catching ability. They're all very,
51:51very professional. I also think Tampa Bay is going to be a team that has to pass a lot. I think that they're going
51:57to have to push the tempo here. I look at sort of Zack Robinson gets the job as OC. Gainwell coming off of a career year
52:06and signs with Tampa Bay of all teams despite the presence of Bucky Irving. So we go from like the the whole thesis
52:14that Bucky Irving is going to Rashad White and they end up signing a guy who was way more productive than Rashad
52:20White last year. I think that Tampa Bay has a plan for Kenneth Gainwell. I've liked taking him a ton this off season
52:27and I continue to do so. The problem is the ADP's converging, Dave, where right when Bucky starts falling into the sixth
52:33round, then I might want to roll out and take some Bucky Irving. When it was Bucky Irving in the fourth and Gainwell
52:39in the 10th, it was Kenneth Gainwell 99 times out of 100. But now it's sort of the converging, should I mix in a little
52:46more Bucky Irving. And I guess this is more of like a high volume take.
52:49Everything being equal, I think I'm team Gainwell this year, but I do think when Irving falls, he might have fallen a
52:54little bit too much. But I do think Gainwell is going to be a very productive player for you in baseball because that pass catching ability is
53:03going to translate and if he's the pass catcher that we think he is, it lowers the ceiling outcome for Irving even
53:09regardless. So, um I like Gainwell a lot. It's but we've seen the ADP. He's rising up to the point where you see him
53:16sometimes early eighth, late seventh where he was living in the tenth a couple months ago. So ADP rising, but I think we both agree Gainwell is a is a
53:25talented football player in an offense that will feature him. Just to what level will that be? Uh and I completely agree with you. If Irving misses time,
53:33Gainwell averages more points per game than he did last year in Pittsburgh. Uh that 13 point per game mark, I think,
53:38going north of that. Uh despite Shawn Tucker, I think it would be Gainwell uh getting a ton of work. Rico Dael or
53:46Jaylen Warren, which Pittsburgh Steeler running back are you leaning into? Rico Dattle had a thousand-y season under Mike McCarthy in Dallas. Dowel, of
53:55course, last year ended up being a huge ADP winner, a huge waiverwire edition where it was an unbelievable what was it
54:02about six weeks of Rico Dow just like maybe a little less than six weeks of crushing it.
54:07>> Two weeks of like some of the best twoame stretch we may have ever seen in NFL history >> and back to back and back to back. So
54:14Rico Dattle's done it basically back like this is two years in a row where DA's had a thousand rushing yards and
54:20last year Dow had finished as a low-end RB2 the year before finished as a low-end RB2 reunites with Mike McCarthy.
54:29But then you've got Jaylen Warren there who's been a very productive player in Pittsburgh. And Jaylen Warren, if we're looking for a running back who has
54:37familiarity with Aaron Rodgers, um, who we know is sort of the de facto OC of his own offense, Jaylen Warren, I think
54:45if if we're looking for if it's going to look like last year where the Aaron Rogers is looking to continually dump
54:50down to a running back, I think Jaylen Warren has the value there. That being said, does Mike McCarthy want to establish Rico Dattle? And we know Rico
54:59Dattle left Carolina and said he's looking for more consistent playing time. Ends up in Pittsburgh. This is one of the backfields that I think matters.
55:07I think Pittsburgh could be an okay source of some fantasy football production based on how cheap everyone is. All of these Steelers are cheap. We
55:17said DK Mechaf, Michael Pitman both going like wide receiver 36 or later.
55:22You've got Warren and Rico Dattle both going out in like wide re in like running back three land. Which one is
55:28the better bet, Dave, between Warren and Dowel?
55:31>> So, I'm put my chips on Warren this year. And you know, we just talked about Kenneth Gainwell in this offense, why he
55:37was able to carve out a role because he is such a good pass blocker. And I think that is just a prerequisite of being in
55:42this Aaron Rogers offense. Aaron Rogers doesn't have the mobility to evade defenders like he used to be. And I think that that's why we saw Caleb
55:49Johnson struggle to get on the field.
55:50And I think that's why we saw Kenneth Gainwell's role grow. And if you look historically, Jaylen Warren, despite being a smaller guy, is one of the best
55:58pass blockers out there. You know, graded as one of the top 10% pass blockers for running backs last year by PFF. Rico Dowel of 60 qualifying running
56:07backs, he was 58th in pass blocking grade last year. So, that does concern me a little bit. You know, we know that
56:13in this offense, so much of the value to the running back comes from who has that pass catching role. And I expect that to
56:18be Jaylen Warren on 90 to 100% of the pass blocking or of the the the receiving snaps. So to me, I just see
56:26Rico Dowel probably being the early down guy and if he's able to generate explosive plays and if this team can get
56:31in the red zone frequently, he can pay off there. But my bet is on Jaylen Warren just because I think that he is
56:36an equally talented runner and I expect him to just lock down that pass passing down role. So, I like Rio Dou the player
56:43and I understand the connection with Mike McCarthy, but I am very firmly in team Jaylen Warren here.
56:50>> Yeah. No, I'm with you. I think that it's I think it's Jaylen Warren. I think Jaylen Warren has the passcatching
56:55upside here. I do think if you're going to draft Dowel, understand that his contingent upside is immense. If Warren misses some time, you're talking about
57:0425 plus touches per game for Dowel in that offense. So, um he's got some value there. And I think from a baseball lens,
57:12they both are easy clicks, but from a reddraft lens, I'm leaning into Jaylen Warren and that known passcatching upside is Rashad White the back to
57:21roster in Washington right now. So I think everybody, you know, you got Jakori Kroski Merritt, Rashad White, and Kaitron Allen, and somebody says like
57:28you need to pick one of these guys. I'm copping out and I'm picking two of these guys and they just happen to be the two
57:32cheapest of the bunch. But I love Rashad White and I love Katron Allen. I have been a Jakori Kroski Barrett doubter.
57:39Um, you know, there's some some fun big plays there, but I think that he just does the stuff that drives NFL coaches
57:44nuts. He's trying to bounce everything outside. He's trying to backtrack and evade defenders, and that does not stick with coaches to to to turn into a
57:53long-term role. And I think that's why we saw last year Chris Rodriguez doesn't have the explosive abilities, but the success rate was high. He's able to keep
58:00an offense on schedule. He doesn't get him behind the sticks. And I think that's why we saw them leaning towards Chris Rodriguez when they were healthy.
58:06Um, so I see Katron Allen as very much so a Chris Rodriguez replacement and I expect him to get a lot of the early
58:12down work and I expect him to get a lot of the goal line work. Where Katron Allen's biggest fault though is in his
58:18pass catching abilities. That just so happens to be Rashad White's best ability on the NFL field. So you look at the connection from Arizona State where
58:26he was playing in the back field there.
58:27I mean, this was a dynamic duo at Arizona State and we saw Jaden Daniels was willing to check down to Rashad
58:32White. So this is one where I kind of see Jakori Crosky Merritt as an odd man out here. I think Rashad White can lock
58:37down the passing down work. I expect Katron Allen to take some of the early down and goal line work. And I think
58:41both these guys are so cheap in drafts right now that you could just pass on Jakori Crosky Merritt, take Rashad White
58:48late, take Kron Allen even later and lock down what I expect to be a big chunk of this backfield.
58:55For me, it's Rashad White all day long.
58:57I'm with you. You make such a good point on on Rashad White with the passcatching ability. Rashad White has three seasons
59:03with 50 catches or more. He's also got two nine touchdown seasons. Uh Dave, like for me, like we're looking at it
59:10and the whole like Rashad White could be this year's version of Kenneth Gainwell.
59:15Rashad White, if it all goes well, could kind of be this year's version of Gvonte Williams based on where they're drafted,
59:23based on where the scoring could be.
59:25Could there be a se a season for Rashad White where he has 60 catches and he has eight rushing touchdowns and anything
59:34else he does on top of that is like just sort of icing on the cake cuz the counting stats will get you there based
59:39on where you're taking him and you're still able to get Rashad White in like the eighth ninth round. So I think
59:44Rashad White is the player you want to gravitate towards the you know the the locker room narrative where he played with Jaden Daniels all that kind of cool
59:51stuff. Uh White is very very interesting. Katon Mitchell, we talked about >> one last thing. One last thing I just want to say on Rashad White real quickly
59:58is we remember like you know the the big thing he had that RB3 or RB4 season a couple of years ago and everybody said,
60:04"Oh, this is fugazi. His efficiency is terrible. This isn't going to last."
60:08Well, as that volume reeled back a little bit last year, Rashad White was ninth among all running backs in EPA.
60:14So, yeah, he had that one year where he was productive and inefficient, but in a slightly smaller role, he's actually become one of the most efficient running
60:21backs in football. So, I think we need to throw this idea that Rashad White is not a good running back or an
60:26inefficient running back. Whatever narrative people were paring a couple of years ago, that is not true. Rashad White is a very, very good running back.
60:34Yeah, Rashad White, very interesting click right now. And I think a player like if you're drafting July 1, the price for Rashad White is going to be
60:42way more expensive on September 1st than it is on July 1st. So, a player that I I think will gain some ADP value
60:49throughout the summer. Let's talk about Katon Mitchell because I think we're both very much in on Katon Mitchell as a baseball pick, but is he going to have
60:56reddraft viability this year? An electric talent and we were always sort of rooting for Moore uh when he was attached to a John Harbaugh in Baltimore
61:05where Katon Mitchell had that incredibly electric rookie season where it was sort of like Devon Chan Light. Um the yards per carry through the roof, the yards
61:15per reception through the roof, had a bunch of spike weeks and then sort of trailed off. year two banged up and then
61:21last year we were sort of there was a hive for Katon Mitchell at this time during the summer and then of course
61:26Harbaugh like gravitated towards Justice Hill again. I think this is a player that needed a new place and Mike McDaniel when he got the job had like he
61:36had I don't know the guy goes to like Kinko's or Staples or something and has homemade posters made up like old Wild
61:43West wanted posters for fullback Alec Engold and running back Katon Mitchell.
61:48I mean, just wild stuff from Mike McDaniel. He puts it in the front office. Uh, and he gets both of them,
61:53but Katon Mitchell, the vibes are really strong. Um, we know he's electric. How effective can he be this year?
62:00>> You know, I love that story about Mike McDaniel. I can't help but think of uh Sunny Weaver with like the Vonte Mack no
62:06matter what. Like, you know, Mike McDaniel showing up to the Chargers and just being like Devon or Katon Mitchell no matter what. And I love that you went
62:12there with the Devon Han comp. One of the biggest things that I work on every single offseason, I do these uh dynasty
62:18buckets where I kind of lump players together that are similar values, similar ages, similar efficiency profiles. And it does work pretty
62:26naturally where you're able to just kind of lump these players together. And a couple years ago when I was doing this,
62:30I was like, I have no idea who to lump Katon Mitchell in with. So I put him in a tier of his own and I labeled that
62:37tier the arbitrage Devon Achan tier. I said, "You can get this guy for way cheaper than Devon Han with very similar
62:43efficiency." And now he lands with Mike McDaniel. So, I love this. And I would argue that this is a better landing spot
62:49than if he went to Miami to play with Mike McDaniel because a better offensive line. You've got a quarterback with an
62:54arm that can truly unlock this offense.
62:56And this is another one I kind of said where it seems like everybody needs to be in one camp or the other. I've heard
63:01so many people say, "Well, if you like Katon Mitchell, then you must hate Omarian Hampton." No, I like Omarian Hampton, too. I think that he's a great
63:08pick in round two, but we saw that Raheem Moster and Devon Achan played under Mike McDaniel were both able to get RB1 value. We saw Achan was able to
63:16get there on efficiency. Well, Moster was able to get there on volume and touchdowns. And I think we could see the
63:22same exact thing here behind a very, very good offensive line. So, just last night in that NFC draft, I did a very
63:29hard zero wide receiver or I'm sorry, a zero running back draft and Katon Mitchell was sitting there in round 12.
63:35I mean, that is just such an easy click.
63:37And that's in a managed league. So, in baseball, yeah, you can just hope that the spike weeks get there, but I think
63:42this can be a good enough Chargers offense that you just want to draft everybody. Lad Mani, Quinton Johnston, Trey Harris, Aronda Gadson, Katon
63:50Mitchell, Omarian Hampton, Justin Herbert. Just draft all of the Chargers because I expect this to be one of the best offenses in the NFL this year.
63:58>> I think that that like people are looking at Mitchell and they kind of don't understand what to do with him. Is
64:03he a handcuff? Is he just sort of something else? I think he's something else. I think that like he he's he's a
64:09smaller back. He's very explosive. I I think Hampton there's scenarios where Hampton could end up with 12 to 16 rushing touchdowns this year. And then
64:19Katon Mitchell is still because they're using Katon Mitchell as sort of the manufactured touch guy out of the back field, the big play guy, high value
64:27touch guy, and he gets somewhere in that 8 to 10 touches a game range. um and exciting ones though. It might be like
64:34right a couple catches, couple rushing attempts, but maybe rips off a long touchdown run. So, I'm with you. And I do think that if Hampton were to miss
64:42time, Kamani Videll would have a ton of value, but Mitchell's value would increase and I think those manufactured highv value touches would go up. So, uh
64:50I'm into Keaton Mitchell as well. I've drafted him a ton in baseball and like you, I've mixed him in a lot in those
64:56double-digit rounds in reddraft leagues as well. Uh really an interesting player. Not a whole lot of tight end to talk about, but two important ones.
65:04Isaiah likely all off seasonason long I've been talking about Isaiah likely as a player who could if Malik Neighbors misses significant time could lead the
65:13New York Giants in targets and catches for the season. And even if Malik Neighbors comes back and is fullon Malik Neighbors likely is my bet to be the
65:22number two target in New York. Such an easy click for me. We have seen the ADP move up, Dave, but I can't stop drafting
65:29Isaiah likely. This one feels like a huge potential win at ADP.
65:34>> Yeah, and you know, I wrote the uh instant reaction article over at Football Guys when he signed. And at the
65:39time, I said, you know, assuming Isaiah likely falls into the deep double digit rounds, he's going to be one of the best
65:44sleeper tight ends to target. But the problem is you're not targeting him as as a sleeper tight end. Like Joey Wright, my co-host over here at Football
65:50Guys, he's already got him ranked as his tight end eight in rankings. And I see a lot of people starting to creep him
65:55inside that top 10. ADP isn't quite there yet, but you're definitely paying up for this guy. And I get it, like we
66:00have been waiting on the upside for years, but I think this is really the make or break year for Isaiah likely
66:05because you can only bet on hope so much. And the reality is like Isaiah likely has just kind of returned like
66:10Noah Gray value every single year. We remember that one huge game against Kansas City to open up the season two years ago. But aside from that, like the
66:17production just hasn't been there. Now, I do think that it was a very intentional decision to go out and get Likely. Harbaugh brought Likely with
66:23him. He brought Pat Ricard with him. I'm expecting a very similar offense to what we saw in Buffalo. Lots of RPO, lots of
66:30designed quarterback rushing, and lots of throws to the tight ends. But Theo Johnson has had a strong chemistry with Jackson Dart, and I think that he's
66:39going to be involved as well. More of the inline Mark Andrews type role in this offense. So, I do worry that Isaiah
66:45Likely's role is going to be very similar to what it was in Baltimore where he is just, you know, getting targets, but on a low volume run first
66:52offense. I think that's the major fear here. But so often when you're drafting a guy like Isaiah likely, you're probably taking him because you missed
67:00out on the early tight ends. And I think that he is the perfect guy to pair up with a guy with more upside. You talk
67:06about that early season path to workload with Malik Neighbors possibly being on pup. So, if I get an Isaiah likely, knowing that the full season ceiling
67:14might be a limit a little bit limited, but if I could tear him up with or pair him up with a Kenyan Sadi who we have
67:21high expectations for, a Terrence Ferguson who could take that big step in year two, I'm confident leaning on likely in the early part of the season.
67:28Will I hope to find a guy later that might give me a little bit more upside?
67:33>> We are butting heads on Isaiah Likely.
67:35And shout out to Joey Wright because you know ball Joey Wright. Um I I'll say Isaiah going to clip that and share that
67:40on Twitter Twitter just >> you know Ball Joey, right? You know Ball Joey, right? I'll say it a couple times.
67:44The um you've got you've got Isaiah likely I think like you nailed it though. He picked and chose this destination and there was a big market
67:53for Isaiah likely. We're going to talk about Chikao in a moment but like the Chika Conquo uh faction of tight ends.
67:59They signed after Isaiah likely and Harbaugh I think that there was a like Harbaugh talked about how Isaiah likely his goal for him was to become an AllPro
68:08last year. So I think it's sort of a like Harbaugh had big-time high expectations and I think somewhere in the multiverse Isaiah Likely is healthy
68:16to start out the 2025 season and he ends up getting the big contract extension and Mark Andrews is playing somewhere else this year. I think that he's good.
68:23The Noah Gray I mean such shade Dave you're throwing out my guy likely there.
68:28I know. I know. We've been waiting for this.
68:31>> Project, but the reality is this guy's never finished better than tight end 20.
68:34Like his season finishes, tight end 30, tight end 28, tight end 20, tight end 45. So, like I understand we're trying
68:40to project the upside, but when I see a guy with those sorts of career finishes, this is a guy that like I'd be happy to
68:45draft at tight end 18 on the off chance that he can put it together, but he's just already being drafted as a tight
68:51end one, and he has never returned that sort of value.
68:55>> Yeah. No, I'm in on him being a tight end one. Uh we're button heads on this one. Let us know in the comments. Uh in
69:00on Isaiah likely, out on Isaiah likely at cost. But yeah, I mean the the one the the best point you made on think
69:06unlikely that I can get up behind is the ADP cost is significant. Right around tight end 10 overall in ADP. So you're
69:13taking Isaiah likely right next to George KD. Uh players like that. You're taking him ahead of a bunch of tight ends that outscored him last year. uh
69:20you're you know you're taking him ahead of Dalton Concincaid, taking him ahead of Dallas Goddard, Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson, the list goes on. Um and
69:28likely is going to have to pay off big time. And then in tight end premium, he's a seventh round pick in FFPC. So uh
69:34NFC, a little bit different conversation. Underdog draft kings, a little bit different, but in tight end premium, Isaiah likely is being treated
69:42as a lockedin tight end one at this point. Another player who I think maybe he'll get behind, Chika Conquo, where the the the vibes are good out of
69:50Washington. A Conquo has had multiple seasons where he had 50 catches or more, I believe three straight years where Chika Conqua has had 50 catches. Um,
69:58played with some very poor quarterback play in Tennessee. Um, last year had a couple of games down the stretch with Cam Ward, which were very promising. Now
70:06he returns to the DMV, played at University of Maryland, now he's back as a Washington commander, is attached to the best quarterback he's ever played
70:14with in Jaden Daniels. And the vibes are really good. And when we look at Washington, Terry McLaren is going to lead the team in targets and catches
70:22unless he gets injured. Antonio Williams, an interesting player. We talked about Rashad White, but there is a gaping hole for Chikaquo to step in
70:30and be a consistent pass catcher. And this role has been very good. that Zack Herz was like an 18% target share guy
70:36the last two seasons. Is a conquo in a good place to return value?
70:41>> So, I don't think that you can make the comp to Zack Hertz because they're very different players. Like Zack Z is that
70:46zone beater. He understands leverage.
70:49He's able to find that soft spot where he can just be an open target. Chika Kono is to me more of a replacement for
70:55Debo Samuel, a guy that we saw getting these schemed up manufactured touches, allowing him to lean on his athleticism, the pop passes, the screens, the ender
71:03rounds, that sort of stuff. And I think that's where we can see Chika Conquo really shine in this offense. And this
71:09is when we look at the value here. He's getting drafted right now as the tight end 21. And this is a guy that I think
71:14has a ton of upside there. So I am drafting a lot of Chicka Konquo. One, I just have faith in this overall
71:21Washington offense. Take it a step forward. Jaden Daniels is healthy this year. I think people forget how good Jaden Daniels was as a rookie. But
71:28Chickono off the charts speed and athleticism. Still on the right side of the age curve. Got paid by Washington.
71:34This is a guy that when I'm doing these multiple tight end builds where I'm waiting on tight end, you know, you look
71:40at the upside for a guy like Chika Konquo and that's what you're ultimately looking for. You're not hoping to draft the tight end 21 in hopes that he can be
71:47the tight end 18. you're hoping that you draft a tight end 21 and he can give you 12 points per game, 15 points per game
71:53and I think a conquo has that sort of upside in this offense where Terry McLaren is the top dog and they really
71:59don't have much else behind him. Yeah, it feels like one of those career type seasons is coming from Chica Conquo here. Um everything's sort of pointed in
72:08that direction. We talked about like the 50 catches consistently at 50 catches.
72:12It's not an enormous uh like hill to climb to go from being a 50 catch guy to a 70 catch guy. When you get in the 70
72:20catch range in tight end, that's a significant number. And I think just being in the mix where we're considering him to potentially be the number two uh
72:29pass catcher in Washington. That's significant if and I mean obviously Stfan Diggs could sign there and that could sort of sort of throw things for a
72:36loop but I think as I yeah Brandon Iayuk Diggs like these kind of guys are are looming but if we can get to the start
72:43of the season and his competition is Antonio Williams who I like but a third round wide receiver there and Rashad White out of the backfield. I think Aona
72:51is in really really good shape. I think the ADP is going to creep up a little bit Dave. We'll keep an eye on that all
72:56throughout the summer and I'm going to be dropping shows like this every single day. right here on this YouTube channel and on this podcast feed. Make sure you
73:03hit that subscribe button if you're enjoying it. Make sure you hit the like button and make sure you're following all of Dave's work as well. But before
73:10we get you out of here, Dave, we got to talk about the quarterbacks. Yeah.
73:12>> Uh Kyler Murray, this is the one where Kyler Murray playing on a very dirt cheap deal. Last year we look at it and
73:19we saw Daniel Jones was the quarterback 12 in points per game sort of and it sort of was a trend where quarterbacks
73:27on new teams we've been able to find, you know, a source of ADP value.
73:31Obviously, we had the Sam Darnold season two seasons ago in Minnesota. You go back to Baker Mayfield when he ended up
73:38in Tampa Bay. Sort of the list goes on and on. These quarterbacks on new teams have provided ADP wins. Kyler Murray is
73:45not dirt cheap. He is a mid QB2 right now in all formats and he still technically has to win the starting
73:53quarterback job in Minnesota. I would be shocked if it's JJ McCarthy week one.
73:57It's got to be Kyler Murray. It feels like a chance for Murray to somewhat reset the narrative where people were really down on him last year, but now he
74:07gets to play in a Kevin O'Connell offense which has been fantasy football gold for multiple quarterbacks. If we take out 2025, it was like hit after hit
74:17after hit where Kirk Cousins led the NFL in touchdown passes, then he gets injured. Josh Dobs was putting up like big-time wide quarterback one weeks. We
74:25even had Nick Mullins who had I believe two 400 yard passing games. So like >> Kyler Murray, where you at on Murray
74:33this year in or out on at ADP?
74:35>> Oh man, one of my favorite clicks in drafts right now. And maybe I am a sucker for still being a believer here,
74:40but you know, we talked earlier in the show. I can't remember who we were talking about, but kind of uncertainty in drafts ends up pushing these players
74:46down because drafters are scared of uncertainty and like Rashi Rice is I think is a perfect example. Like Rashi Rice when he was in jail is falling into
74:55round three, round four. As soon as he's released from jail, he shoots back up to round two. We knew he was getting
75:00released from jail, but it's just like this uncertainty for whatever reason just scares managers away. AJ Brown, everybody in the world knew that he was
75:08going to be a Patriot, but he was falling into round three. as soon as the deal is formalized, then he jumps up to
75:13the one-two turn. And I think with Kyler Murray, everybody knows that he is going to be the starter. It is like one of the
75:18worstkept secrets around the NFL right now that Kyler Murray is going to win this job. And if he is declared the
75:23starter by Kevin Oonnell, he's going to jump up four or five rounds in fantasy drafts. But right now, that uncertainty is just giving you such a good
75:31discounted price right now. Since coming into the league, Kyler Murray is fourth in rushing among quarterbacks. It's Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jaylen Herz,
75:38and Kyler Murray. He's averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game. That's seventh among all quarterbacks since entering the league. And I don't think Kyler
75:47Murray is a bad quarterback. He just never really took that step forward.
75:51Like the player that we saw in year five was kind of the same player that we saw his rookie season. You know, scrambling
75:56all over, making the big plays and making some poor reads every now and then. But I do have faith in Kevin
76:02Oonnell making things a little bit better. Of course, the weapons in Minnesota. Justin Jefferson is there.
76:07Jordan Addison is there. TJ Hawinson now two years removed from the knee injury.
76:11He might look a little bit more like his old self. You could easily see Kyler Murray just breathing life into the
76:16weapons in Minnesota, resuscitating this entire offense and returning top five quarterback value. So Kyler Murray easily one of my favorite picks in
76:24drafts right now.
76:26>> I'm completely with you. And it's also he's on this he's on this like very very team friendly deal where it's really
76:32playing for that 2027 contract. People talk about Kyler Murray being unable to sort of elevate uh wide receivers around him. He sure did with DeAndre Hopkins
76:42back in the day and and Trey McBride had wide receiver usage. So like Justin Jefferson is going to be more than fine
76:49at his ADP. I think you also, you know, Jawan Jennings also has the wide receiver three. This offensive eco and the offensive line play in Minnesota is
76:57going to be a big- time cut above what he had in Arizona. So, like the offensive ecosystem for Murray, it it's
77:04all in play. I think this is another one where people get these preconceived notions in their head about Kyler Murray and it's become sort of a popular thing
77:12to sort of talk trash on the guy and sort of like fade him. I think that he's really priced right to return value this
77:18year and maybe rejuvenate things.
77:21There's a chance that he has a good enough year that we get to 2027, he's like the QB12 in ADP and he's back to
77:27being like a low-end QB1. So, >> and I know we're talking like best ball and reddraft, but like go buy him in
77:32Dynasty, too, because if he has a good season, he's going to go get a massive deal to go play somewhere else next year
77:38and still on the right side of the age curve, still with the rushing upside.
77:40Kyler Mur and you talk like, you know, the the memes about him being short and playing video games and all this sort of
77:46stuff that bleeds into the public perception of him and helps make him such a good value.
77:50>> Yeah. And also like the guy plays video games, you know, Kyler Murray's not like going out at night. Like there's like no
77:57there's been no off the- field stuff with Kyler Murray whatsoever and the guy still gets so much grief for that. Like
78:01the guy plays video games and I know there's been sort of things put into his contract about he's got to watch film
78:06and stuff like that. You don't you don't like seeing that Dave. But um the guy the guy is just you know he's he's an
78:12athlete. That's what he does. He goes out and plays and then he goes home and chills. There's no there's no nothing
78:17exciting. You've never seen a Kyler Murray offseason photo of him anywhere.
78:21Um because the guy's hanging out. He's hanging out. Okay, let's talk about Malik Willis because Vegas has Miami as a 4 and a half win total team, but Malik
78:30Willis could rush for 800 plus rushing yards and I'm able to get him cheap QB2 right now and I get it. This is sort of
78:38a this is your biggest example of like the wait and see it first drafter. Even if Miami is bad this year, even if
78:46they're like three or four wins bad, as long as Malik Willis can hold on to the starting quarterback job, there's really
78:52no chance he's not going to give me at least 600 rushing yards. And there's a chance that he gives me 850 plus. So,
78:59how am I not supposed to click that button, especially in baseball? But, could he have reddraft viability as well? Absolutely. Yeah. And I think,
79:07yeah, the vibes are horrendous in Miami.
79:10like this might be a two- win team, but like they're not going to turn the keys over to Quinn Eers. Like Malik Willis is
79:15going to get an opportunity to start this year. You look like, you know, John Eric Sullivan came from Green Bay. Jeff
79:21Hafley came from Green Bay. I think that they want to do right by Malik Willis.
79:25Like they're not going to bring him in and then bench him halfway through the season. They gave him a multi-year deal.
79:29And I think that sink or swim, they're going to let him play it out this year and then they'll reassess going into
79:342027 to see if they need to bring in a new quarterback or not. So, when I see a guy who's going to be playing in a lot
79:39of garbage time, a guy who has tremendous rushing upside, these are the exact guys that you should be targeting late in drafts. He might not uh and and
79:48I think the other thing here is like people get confused and they think that like it's a very wide range of outcomes
79:54that he's got a low floor and a high ceiling. I don't even agree with that. I think that the rushing alone pushes his
79:59floor up so high that you're basically starting every single game with like 150 yards and a passing touchdown in the bank just getting that from his rushing
80:07and then any passing on top of that is just the cherry on top. So I'm looking at a high floor high ceiling player here
80:13right now and I think that you're just getting a discount because people are scared off by the Dolphins. You know I
80:19said it about Kyler. I'll say the same thing about Malik Willis. Just one of my favorite clicks on the board right now.
80:24>> I have so much Malik Willis in baseball right now. It's actually crazy. And I think if you're looking for a QB2 in red
80:30draft leagues, like you don't need to wait till QB2, but I can draft. I can start you. It's really an interesting
80:37strategy this year where we've seen this in some of the high stakes formats. And again, we're already at a buck 20. Big
80:42shout out to you, Dave. This is by far the longest show I've recorded for Roto Wire. I've been doing shorter shows, but
80:48this one had to be long, and really appreciate you being so generous with your takes and your time. Uh we always
80:54go long whenever we uh talk when whenever we pod together because it's so much fire or content, but you could end
80:59up doing a quarterback strategy where let all 12 go. Like you can start drafting quarterbacks after uh not only the 11 other teams in your league draft
81:08a quarterback, but somebody takes their QB2 and I can triple tap the quarterback position. I can take Kyler Murray, I can
81:13take Malik Willis, and I can take one other guy, sort of a Bo Knicks type, and just go from there. And I think I'm
81:19going to find a weekly starter that's strong. Um, it's a dangerous game in a sense because you're drafting three quarterbacks and you're sacrificing a
81:27potential handcuffed running back or something like that, but you're able to uh get really really strong access to players in like round eight, round nine,
81:35round seven when people are attacking quarterback. So interesting. That's it for another show. Maybe we'll drag you back for quarterback strategy, Dave.
81:42Talk about one more. Some very cheap back door stacks as well. Like you can get Greg Dulitch, Jaylen Tolbert, Malik Washington. These guys are drafts.
81:50Exactly. Yeah, Malik Washington. I like that one. I think like 18th round Malik Washington. I think he could end up kind
81:56of being a thing this year. Uh Doulich, man, he's he's climbing and climbing and climbing. Um I think we moved his ADP up
82:02when we did that show a couple weeks ago on on my old channel. Yeah. Uh that might have been on your channel
82:06actually. We did the the round on Football Guys. Yep.
82:09>> You can you can type in either of our names on YouTube. We did the best pick in every round. We might have to run
82:13that back uh like August 1st and do the same thing. Maybe we'll go we'll go faster. We'll go like fast. Try to do
82:19all 20. Uh let's do uh one more quarterback. Any sort of expectations for Tua Tonga Aloa? This is sort of the
82:28free one where we've talked about some of these other guys where we're talking about Malik Willis and the value he presents at QB21. Tua is quarterback 31,
82:37but it sounds like he's going to be the starting quarterback in Atlanta. Uh that would be my lean and the vibes are
82:43pretty good. And let's go down the list.
82:45We love Drake London. We love Bejan Robinson. We think that Kyle Pittz is going to be a top five targeted tight
82:52end this year. Probably maybe top seven targeted tight end this year. So like we like the weapons. Oh, and my guy
82:58Zachariah Branch, I talked about him on another show recently. So we like the weapons in Atlanta. Do we want to mix in
83:04some Tua Tong Aloa? Is this strictly a best conversation?
83:08>> So I think it's very much so a baseball conversation. Like I don't think I've taken Tua in any of my managed leagues,
83:13especially one quarterback. But I think one of the things that people just fail to understand, like last year, three quarterback builds in baseball ended up
83:21being very lucrative, but that's because of the value that you were getting late.
83:25Like you were getting really good quarterback value at the very end of your draft. Now all of these quarterbacks are getting steamed up. So
83:31when I see people take three quarterbacks with their round seven, eight, and nine picks, that is not how you build a winning roster. You build a
83:38winning roster by getting good value really late. So, Tuata Baloa feels kind of gross, but is one of my most drafted
83:45just because from a team building standpoint, you can get him for so cheap. And as we talked about, I draft a
83:50lot of Drake London. I draft a lot of Kyle Pittz. So, I could put the uh the the the the bow on that stack with my
83:5618th round pick in Tua Tagaloa. And I think that he's going to start just because Pennix isn't healthy right now.
84:01And this is a new head coach. This is a new offensive coordinator. Tua is there right now for the install. He's learning
84:07these things and that gives him a leg up in the competition. I will say I I I worry a little bit about the fit here
84:12because Tua, if you look at how he played in Miami with Jaylen Wadd and Tyreek Hill, those guys were just on an
84:17island and he was able to hit him. If you look at what he did when he was in college playing with Dvont Smith, Jerry
84:22Judy, those guys were on an island and he was able to hit them. He's going to have to change up his game a little bit
84:27because Drake London, Kyle Pittz, these guys aren't much separators as they are contested catch guys. And that's why I really like Michael Penn last year
84:35because if you look at what Michael Penn did at Washington, it was throwing jump balls up to Roma Dunay and Jaylen Pulk
84:41and Jaylen McMillan. So I worry a little bit because we're going to have to see Tua change up his game a little bit. But
84:46if he is able to learn to trust Drake London and trust Kyle Pitts, these bigbodied, physical pass catchers to come down with contested balls, he's got
84:54the inside track to the starting job right now. And if he can just return to form, you know, this is a guy who was
84:5978% completion percentage on intermediate routes from 2022 to 2024.
85:04We saw that fall off a cliff last year to 58%. But if he can return to hitting those intermediate throws like he did so
85:11well during that three-year stretch in Miami, this could just really really elevate this entire offense.
85:17>> Completely with you, especially in in three QB builds. And hey man, if it all else fails, you've got the little low A
85:23dot dump offs to Bejian Robinson out of the back field. Not a bad strategy. Uh, make sure you check out Dave Kugi. He's
85:29starting a show on Sirius Satellite Radio. When is that going to air? What day of the week is that going to be,
85:34Dave?
85:34>> So, that starts next Wednesday, uh, 10:00 p.m. to midnight Eastern every single Wednesday during the preseason.
85:40Then we'll flip to Thursday's inseason.
85:42That's going to be the NFC high stakes show. I'm doing that with Tom Kessanik from over at NFC. Theo, we've both been
85:49deep in these uh these high stakes streets, and I know you've been doing it a little bit longer than I have. I
85:53dipped my toes in a few years ago, loved it so much that I kind of fully took the plunge last year and now hard to believe
85:59that I'm going to be hosting a radio show on high stakes, but just such a fun community. Like the more high stakes I
86:06play, the more I like that format. Um, I'm kind of at the point now where I've got like all of my like fun leagues on
86:12Sleeper and then all of my other leagues are over on NFC. And uh, yeah, just really really enjoying the high stakes
86:18industry. High stakes is all fun until it gets to be Wednesday nights and your lives are are are owned by your waivers.
86:25Uh Dave, >> I got a three-hour block every Wednesday night on my calendar just for waivers.
86:29>> Absolute torture for me on Wednesdays.
86:31My I still I'll be producing Wednesday content in season right here, but it's not going to be long for him, guys. I'm
86:36I'm in the streets as well as Dave. So, uh putting in the work and uh putting in the work on this channel. Big shout out
86:42to everybody helping me get this thing going. Make sure you're checking it out on the podcast feed as well. Roto Wire
86:47fantasy football podcast feed. Anywhere you get your podcasts, right here on the YouTube channel. If you enjoyed it, hit the like button and help us out by
86:54hitting that subscribe button. We want to get to 50,000 subs on this channel and we're going to do it with great
86:59guests like Dave Kugi. Uh shout out to everybody. I hope you have a great holiday weekend and we'll see you soon.