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9 Players We Can't Stop Drafting in 2026 Fantasy Football

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 12, 2026
Published
Sun, July 12, 2026
84
Player insights
22
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownChristian WatsonJaylen WaddleParker WashingtonDavid MontgomeryJonathon BrooksDrake LondonChase BrownCourtland SuttonJayden ReedTravis HunterBrian Thomas Jr.Chris GodwinChuba Hubbard
Player analysis

Player insights

84

A.J. Brown

PositiveRole0:03

A.J. Brown is receiving significant hype for moving from a run-centric offense to New England's pass-happy system, and is ranked as a WR1 everywhere with deserved expectations.

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PositiveProjection0:07

AJ Brown could lead the NFL in touchdown catches this year, according to the analyst.

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PositiveProjection0:07

Analyst projects a career season for AJ Brown and ranks him as wide receiver 5, closer to a one-two turn pick than his current second or third round ADP.

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PositiveProjection0:08

Ranked as WR5 in rankings, closer to the one-two turn in overall rankings, with true top-three upside due to improved red zone opportunity with the Patriots.

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PositiveUsage0:08

Despite playing in run-centric offenses, AJ Brown has produced as a wide receiver 10, 12, 8, and 8 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons, demonstrating consistent elite production.

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PositiveUsage0:08

Last season, despite injury concerns early on, AJ Brown ranked 9th in target share, 17th in yards per route run, 8th in first read share, and 20th in first downs per route run.

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PositiveUsage0:08

Despite a down year, ranked 9th in target share, 17th in yards per route run, 8th in first read share, and 20th in first downs per route run, demonstrating elite efficiency metrics.

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PositiveMatchup0:08

Moving from Eagles (15th in neutral passing rate) to Patriots (9th in neutral passing rate) provides improved passing volume opportunity.

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PositiveProjection0:09

Positioned to score the most touchdowns in a single season of his career due to Patriots being 15th in passing rate inside the 10-yard line versus Eagles at 32nd.

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PositiveRole0:12

Will be the clear, undisputed number one receiver for the Patriots, commanding elite alpha-level target share close to 30% based on his proven skill set.

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PositiveProjection0:12

If A.J. Brown scores 12 touchdowns with similar peripheral volume, he projects as a top-five wide receiver option due to increased touchdown equity.

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PositiveProjection0:12

A.J. Brown is positioned as the clear, undisputed number one receiver for New England with significant touchdown upside given his historical 7 or fewer receiving touchdowns per season.

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PositiveProjection0:12

If he scores 12 touchdowns with similar peripheral stats, he projects as a top-five option despite being WR10-12 the last three seasons with no more than 7 receiving TDs each year.

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PositiveValue0:13

A.J. Brown is ranked ahead of ADP and is being heavily targeted by sharp money drafters in FFPC and NFFC leagues, with some pushing him toward the beginning of the second round.

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PositiveProjection0:15

A.J. Brown has a higher floor and higher ceiling than Drake London due to superior quarterback play and offensive scoring opportunities with the Patriots.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

PositiveRole0:23

Brian Thomas Jr. was the high-dot field stretcher when he returned last season and will fill that role again, which is not a high-volume role compared to Parker Washington's usage.

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Chase Brown

PositiveProjection0:42

Chase Brown has top-three running back upside this season based on his production in various iterations of previous seasons.

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PositiveUsage0:42

Despite a slow start (RB34 in weeks 1-5), Chase Brown was RB6 in fantasy points per game from weeks 6-18 and maintained 60.5% snap share and 70.6% red zone snap share even after Samaje Perine returned in weeks 13-18.

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Chris Godwin

PositiveProjection0:26

Chris Godwin had a seven-game stretch in 2024 under Liam Coen where he was absolutely cooking, with consistent production of 18+ points in five of the last seven games, showing the sample size was not inflated by one big blow-up week.

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Christian Watson

PositiveValue0:16

Christian Watson's ADP has risen significantly and he is now being drafted near older wide receivers like DeVante Adams, Mike Evans, and D.J. Moore in high-stakes formats.

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PositiveProjection0:17

Christian Watson is ranked as wide receiver 19 in rankings despite rising ADP in high-stakes formats, suggesting potential overvaluation relative to his projected performance.

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PositiveProjection0:17

Analyst ranks Christian Watson as WR19 in rankings with top-15 or WR1 upside, projecting a Will Fuller/Terry McLaurin ceiling outcome.

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PositiveUsage0:17

Watson was the clear #1 for Green Bay weeks 8-18 last year, producing as a top-24 WR with 61.1 receiving yards per game and leading the team in target share.

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PositiveRole0:18

With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone, Watson's role is expected to expand significantly as the clear alpha WR1 in Green Bay's offense.

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PositiveUsage0:18

Watson had a 68% route share last year (56th out of 109 qualifying WRs) and posted elite 2.67 yards per route run efficiency, suggesting significant upside if route share increases.

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PositiveProjection0:19

If Watson's route share increases while maintaining his elite per-route efficiency, he projects as a top-15 or possible WR1 this season.

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PositiveValue0:20

Watson is currently going at WR26 in FFPC, which the analyst believes is undervalued; he prefers Watson over Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Davante Adams, and Rome Odunze.

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PositiveDepth Chart0:20

Green Bay's contract extension and commitment to Watson signals confidence in his health and upward trajectory, positioning him as an alpha WR1 who will be heavily featured.

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PositiveUsage0:21

Watson has been at a 19% target share and could realistically reach 22-23%, which would increase his weekly floor and make him a more consistent part of the game plan.

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PositiveRole0:29

Christian Watson is used as a comparison to Parker Washington—when an offense leans on a guy and he answers the bell, they don't go away from him, as Watson got paid after proving himself as an elite weapon.

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PositiveRole0:29

Christian Watson answered the bell as an elite weapon after getting paid, establishing himself as a key target in the Packers offense.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveDepth Chart0:37

Chuba Hubbard is slightly behind Jonathan Brooks in FFPC ADP but 30 spots behind in NFFC, indicating market disagreement on the backfield hierarchy.

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Courtland Sutton

PositiveDepth Chart0:01

Courtland Sutton is the established WR1 in Denver, but Derek Brown argues he's only held that role because there was no other elite receiver to step up alongside him, and Waddle changes that dynamic.

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PositiveProjection0:02

Courtland Sutton had a career season in Bo Nix's rookie year, but Theo notes he's an older WR and the market may be overweighting his recent production.

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David Montgomery

PositiveProjection0:31

David Montgomery is positioned to deliver RB1 type production similar to Joe Mixon's 2024 breakout season, with an incredibly high floor and RB1 upside in Houston's physical offense.

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PositiveUsage0:32

David Montgomery is projected to flirt with 300 touches and will surpass Joe Mixon's 2024 usage metrics (fifth in opportunity share, 14th in snap share, 13th in carries), positioning him for elite volume.

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PositiveBust0:32

David Montgomery is not a dead zone back despite his age; he's efficient on a per-touch basis (30th in missed tackle rate, 12th in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run) and surpasses Woody Marks on every efficiency metric.

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PositiveValue0:34

Getting David Montgomery at mid to low-end RB2 prices while he's positioned to flirt with RB1 value and production this year; he's a smash pick as the unquestioned bellcow.

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PositiveValue0:34

David Montgomery is a smash pick available at mid to low-end RB2 prices while offering RB1 value and production, with unquestioned bellcow status in Houston's offense.

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PositiveValue0:34

David Montgomery is currently ranked RB21 and available at the four-five turn in hero RB builds, representing significant value in the draft.

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PositiveRole0:35

Montgomery is the old guy surrounded by year-two players (Chatwood, Judkins, Trey Henderson, Basil Tooten), which structurally aids his bellcow role and value.

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PositiveProjection0:35

David Montgomery is a strong pick in round five as part of a hero RB build strategy, allowing access to elite wide receivers and tight ends earlier.

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Dontayvion Wicks

NegativeRole0:21

Wicks is no longer with Green Bay after having inconsistent usage patterns with sporadic blow-up games followed by disappearances.

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Drake London

NegativeValue0:07

Drake London's ADP has fallen behind AJ Brown in recent ADP movements across FFPC, NFFC, and Underdog platforms.

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PositiveProjection0:15

Drake London has upside and could crush from a volume perspective with a high floor and spike weeks, though A.J. Brown is preferred due to superior offensive environment.

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PositiveBreakout0:16

Analyst expresses strong conviction on Drake London, stating "I think he's that guy" and plans to talk about him throughout the offseason, indicating high confidence in his breakout potential.

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Drake Maye

PositiveRole0:11

Likes spreading the ball around, which some analysts cite as a potential concern for A.J. Brown's target volume, though the analyst pushes back on this narrative.

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Jakobi Meyers

NegativeValue0:26

Analyst is fading Jakobi Meyers in favor of double-tapping on BTJ and Parker Washington in the Jacksonville offense.

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Jayden Reed

PositiveRole0:21

With Wicks and Doubs gone, the three-WR rotation is expected to tighten significantly, with Reed, Golden, and Watson becoming the primary options in Green Bay's offense.

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PositiveRole0:21

Reed will be one of three primary wide receivers in Green Bay's offense alongside Calvin Watson and Golden, with consistent usage in both two and three wide receiver sets.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue0:00

Derek Brown calls Jaylen Waddle "the best wide receiver value in fantasy football right now," ranking him as WR10 despite being drafted as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, which he considers egregious undervaluation.

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PositiveRole0:00

Waddle is transitioning from Miami's run-heavy offense (29th in neutral passing rate) to Denver's pass-happy system (4th in passing attempts), positioning him as Denver's unquestioned WR1 over Courtland Sutton.

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PositiveUsage0:01

Waddle was top 12 in every key efficiency metric on a per-route basis in Denver, including target per route run rate, yards per route run, and first downs per route run—besting Courtland Sutton in all of them.

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PositiveProjection0:02

Denver's coaching staff is comparing year-three Bo Nix with Waddle to year-three Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs, suggesting elite WR1 potential for Waddle in the new offense.

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PositiveValue0:03

Theo argues Waddle's floor is WR23 and that his ADP should reflect the Denver offense bump, noting the market has failed to price in his move from Miami's bad offense to Denver's pass-happy system.

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PositiveProjection0:04

Analyst has Jaylen Waddle ranked as wide receiver 10 in their FantasyPros rankings, significantly higher than his current ADP of wide receiver 23, suggesting substantial upside potential.

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PositiveBreakout0:04

Waddle has shown multiple elite seasons in his career with different skill expressions (100+ receptions in year one, 1,350 receiving yards in year two), and his skillset was held back by Tua Tagovailoa, suggesting potential to explode in Denver.

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PositiveRole0:04

Waddle's skillset was held back with Tua Tagovailoa in past years, and there's a chance he explodes this year with a potential change in offensive structure.

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PositiveValue0:05

At wide receiver 23 ADP, Waddle represents strong value; the analyst would 'take the under on wide receiver 23 all day long' and expects his ADP to rise throughout the summer.

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PositiveBreakout0:06

Waddle is expected to rise from his current ADP and settle into the tier with Emeka Egbuka, Garrett Wilson, and Tutu Atwell, making him a strong pick if drafting in July.

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Jonathon Brooks

PositiveProjection0:36

Jonathan Brooks is rising in ADP and ranked RB30 in FFPC, slightly ahead of Chuba Hubbard, with NFFC drafters gravitating toward his upside.

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PositiveValue0:37

Jonathan Brooks has moved from 9th-10th round expectations to round 6-8 territory; you can probably comfortably get him in round seven, but round eight or lower is unlikely in sharper drafts.

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PositiveValue0:38

Brooks can be comfortably drafted in round seven in home league drafts, ranked as RB29 overall at 77th overall, offering top-tier RB3 range value with potential to take over the backfield.

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PositiveProjection0:38

Jonathan Brooks is ranked RB29 at 77th overall, positioned at the top tier of RB3 range with upside to truly take over the backfield unlike other committee backs.

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PositiveBreakout0:38

Brooks has significant upside to take over the backfield from Chuba Hubbard, who was one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL last year with zero explosive runs on 130+ carries.

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PositiveProjection0:40

Brooks is projected to become a top-15 back weekly by mid-season as the clear RB1 on an improved, run-centric offense, potentially becoming an RB2 in flex spots.

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PositiveRole0:41

Brooks is an elite receiver and pass-catcher who fits Dave Canales' offensive scheme better than Chuba Hubbard, with elite potential in the screen game.

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PositiveProjection0:41

Brooks' college numbers at Texas were in line with Bijan Robinson's and he was the first running back selected in the 2024 draft class, indicating high-level prospect pedigree.

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Jordan Love

PositiveProjection0:22

With Green Bay viewing themselves as a big contender after back-to-back playoff disappointments, there's reason to lean into Jordan Love for increased performance.

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Parker Washington

PositiveRole0:23

Parker Washington was Jacksonville's Amon-Ra St. Brown in the back half of last season and will maintain a high-leverage role with red zone and deep target opportunities.

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PositiveUsage0:24

From weeks 6-19, Parker Washington posted a 28.9% target share, 3.78 yards per route run, and 33.3% first-read share—Amon-Ra St. Brown-level elite usage numbers.

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PositiveProjection0:24

In weeks 6-19 last season, Parker Washington averaged 22.3 PPR points per game, which is Ja'Marr Chase-level top-three wide receiver output, and he is set up to smash this year.

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PositiveBreakout0:25

In a stretch of games, Parker Washington averaged 22.3 PPR points per game, which is Ja'Marr Chase level top-three wide receiver output. Even if production is nerved to 17-18 PPR points per game, he represents a massive ADP win.

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PositiveBreakout0:25

If Parker Washington produces at or near his weeks 6-19 pace, he will be a massive draft pick that flips leagues.

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PositiveUsage0:29

Parker Washington was the clear undisputed wide receiver one to end the season with nearly a 30% target share, and the analyst questions why Liam Coen would move away from that level of production and usage.

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PositiveUsage0:30

Parker Washington commanded nearly a 30% target share in Jacksonville's offense and was hyper-targeted in the playoff game against Buffalo, demonstrating elite slot usage and explosive play ability.

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PositiveMatchup0:30

In the playoff game against Buffalo when the stakes were highest, Jacksonville hyper-targeted and hyper-used Parker Washington, demonstrating his importance in crucial moments.

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PositiveValue0:30

Parker Washington represents really interesting value when available in round seven, offering explosive play potential and manufactured touches.

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Romeo Doubs

NegativeRole0:21

Romeo Doubs is no longer with Green Bay after being a constant headache for fantasy managers with inconsistent usage.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveProjection0:10

Averaged 12.5 PPR points per game last year with 1,000 receiving yards, serving as the baseline comparison for A.J. Brown's expected upgrade at the WR1 spot.

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Travis Hunter

NegativeRole0:25

Analyst is worried about Travis Hunter's fantasy impact this year because Jacksonville needs him to play full-time corner, and when he does come on the field, the analyst doesn't see significant fantasy production.

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PositiveRole0:25

Travis Hunter will need to play full-time corner this year and is unlikely to significantly impact Parker Washington's field time, as Jacksonville may use 10 personnel with four wide receivers instead.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveValue0:27

Trevor Lawrence is at a fun price in the sixth round, and the analyst believes the Jacksonville offense could score a lot under Liam Coen's play calling.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole0:32

Woody Marks is not a concern for David Montgomery's workload; Montgomery surpasses Marks on every efficiency metric and is the unquestioned bellcow.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

494
0:05>> Which players can we not stop drafting in 2026 fantasy football drafts? I'm Theo Gremminger, lead fan fantasy analyst right here at RotoWire. Joined
0:14today by my guy, Derek Brown, Debro from Fantasy Pros. And we're going to go ahead and get this thing started. Is
0:20Jaylen Waddle the best wide receiver value in fantasy football right now?
0:27>> Theo, he easily is, man. I don't understand what everybody is missing with Jaylen Waddle. He is ranked in ADP and all that kind of stuff as a low-end
0:34wide receiver two, high-end wide receiver three.
0:37And I think it's egregious, man. Like I don't I don't understand what people are missing with him. He is a freaking stud.
0:43And he's going from a run-heavy, run-centric offense to a pass-happy one, Theo. Like last year, Miami, 29th in neutral passing rate. Denver was fourth,
0:52and they're not slowing down. Like I hear all these Bronco fans in my replies and mentions, and they're like, "Oh yeah, but Denver's not going to throw
0:59the ball." Or Denver's going to Their defense is good. Didn't stop them from throwing last year. They were fourth in passing attempts behind only the
1:05Cardinals, the Bengals, and the Cowboys.
1:08And Waddle crushed on a per route basis, Theo. He was top 12 in every single metric we should care about. Target per
1:15route run rate, yards per route run, first downs per route run. I can keep going, dude. And every single one of
1:21THOSE METRICS, HE BESTED COURTLAND SUTTON. SO, HOW CAN WE SAY in a pass-happy offense in the Denver Broncos that Jaylen Waddle will not be a wide
1:31receiver one and the unquestioned wide receiver one of the Denver Broncos? How, Theo?
1:36>> I've had this conversation with a bunch of people recently, and it feels super weird. First of all, let let let's go
1:42let's go argument by argument. We'll go real quick on this one. Courtland Sutton's the established wide receiver one in Denver. Therefore, that's going
1:50to be more like split usage. Your thoughts on that one?
1:54>> Courtland Sutton has been the man because there's been nobody else able to step up alongside him. Like there's been no Robin to his Batman or no Batman to
2:02his Robin. Like and that's what Waddle is, man. So like I think again that narrative is false. Like people are like, "Oh, Denver's going to run a
2:08committee." Like that's what they've been doing. That's what you do when you don't have another established wide receiver that can take the reins.
2:16>> Yeah, I agree with you. And the Courtland Sutton argument is funny to me.
2:19Uh it's an older wide receiver and I I get it. Courtland Sutton's been really really solid over the last couple years.
2:26He had the the rookie year Bo Nix season was like the career season for Courtland Sutton. But people are not even taking
2:33into account like just how much Denver paid for Jaylen Waddle. A first-round pick, a third-round pick, a fourth-round pick. I I think it's crazy to think that
2:42he's not going to be the focal point here. We've heard that the coaching staff sort of talk about how this is
2:49they're making comparisons for year three Bo Nix getting a Jaylen Waddle to year three Josh Allen getting a Stefon Diggs. And we all know how good Diggs
2:58was that season. We're hearing that from the Denver coaching staff. So are they hyping up their own guys? I get it. But
3:04for me like wide receiver 23 wide receiver 23 feels like what Waddle's floor would be and sort of where his ADP should have been if he
3:12wasn't traded from Miami. Like if he was sitting there with Malik Willis, with all those wide receivers in Miami, then we'd probably say, "Yeah, Waddle, you
3:20know, he's he's right around that low-end wide receiver two, high-end wide receiver three line in a bad offense."
3:25So I agree with you like the Denver bump didn't happen. And we me and you talked about this like as soon as the trade
3:31happened. Like uh we podcasted really recently after and we were like dumbfounded by all the takes where people were like, "No, no, Jaylen Waddle
3:37is this stylistic add. He's not just this baller that they're going to build stuff around."
3:42>> Well, and and here's the thing that I don't understand because people can pick and choose the narratives that they want
3:46to sit or the players that they want to invest in.
3:49People Everybody is all in on A.J. Brown season and we're going to get to that.
3:53Everybody is all in on that because he goes to New England, and he goes from a more run-centric offense to a pass-happy
3:58offense. Everybody's in that. A.J. Brown is ranked as a wide receiver one everywhere you look at, and he's getting tons of hype. Deserve it.
4:04But then but then but then you turn it on and you say, "Well, why aren't you doing the same damn thing for Jaylen
4:09Waddle?" AND EVERYBODY'S LIKE, "WELL, UH I GOT EXCUSES AND PROBLEMS and questions." And it's like, "Why? What's the freaking difference? What?"
4:18>> Yeah, and Jaylen Waddle's had multiple seasons in his career where he's just been terrific, and we've seen it in different ways where we saw the rookie
4:25year where it was like the low adot usage, high target earner, over 100 receptions. Then we saw him like flip it
4:30around and have I think it was 3 1,350 receiving yards in year two. Um really he like his skillset was sort of held
4:39back with Tua Tagovailoa like you you know in these past years. I think there's a chance that he explodes this year. Do you think that he can be a wide
4:47receiver one this year?
4:49>> I have him ranked as wide receiver 10 right now in my rankings on fantaspros.com.
4:53>> It's spicy. I love it. And I think I think that's closer to what it should be than wide receiver 23. I think if we're
4:59going to kind of split the difference, um if this was The Price Is Right, I would say Debo is closer to the actual
5:04price. Um is that how The Price Is Right rules work? Let me let me know in the comments. I think I might have screwed
5:09that one up. I haven't watched that show in a long time.
5:12>> LIKE YOU HAVEN'T WATCHED THE PRICE IS RIGHT IN A MINUTE, DO YOU?
5:14>> THINK IT'S GOT TO BE like right on the number. Okay, so that's a bad one. But I think like his actual if it was like an
5:19over/under in Vegas kind of deal, I'll take the under on wide receiver 23 all day long. Will he get to wide receiver
5:2510? I think he's got a chance to do that, absolutely. And it's like this great track record of traded wide receivers in the offseason where we get
5:34hit after hit after hit. We saw it last year with George Pickens. We saw it the year before with Jerry Jeudy. We saw it
5:40the year before that with D.J. Moore.
5:42It's been a trend that we have followed in fantasy football. I'll just give you a quick head-to-head ADP debate, and it's going to not going to be hard for
5:49you. Jaylen Waddle versus Terry McLaurin.
5:53>> Jaylen Waddle.
5:53>> Waddle for me as well. Jaylen Waddle or Ladd McConkey?
5:58>> Jaylen Waddle and it's not close.
5:59>> I think I'm I'm I'm Jaylen Waddle on that one, too. Here's sort of the the the the one where I kind of the rubber
6:05meets the road for me.
6:07Emeka Egbuka or Jaylen Waddle?
6:09>> Jaylen Waddle.
6:10>> So, I'm going to Egbuka there, but it's it's again, it's really close and I had this conversation with like Pat Kerrane
6:16and those guys the other day and it was um they kind of pointed out like with Egbuka's ADP moving up, Waddle's ADP
6:22sort of sort of right where it is, you know, you're it's a it's a round difference. So, it's like an opportunity
6:27cost thing that that matters a lot. So, Tutu Atwell or Jaylen Waddle?
6:33>> Jaylen Waddle and again, it's not even close. I I have a lot of concerns about Tutu this year just because of how that
6:39how that passing offense is going to operate and the fact that they are so run-centric.
6:44>> Yeah, no, I'm with you on that one, too.
6:45So, this is definitely interesting stuff when it comes to Jaylen Waddle. I think pack your bags right now on Jaylen Waddle because I think there's going to
6:52be a correction throughout the summer.
6:53He's not going to rise up to like wide receiver 13, but I do think getting him at like wide receiver 23, it's sort of
7:01like right around like in the 40s and like FFPC, wide receiver 23 on Underdog.
7:05I think more likely than not, his ADP's going to rise up. I think he'll pass McLaurin. I think he'll pass Mike Evans,
7:11the kind of older guys and it's sort of the Egbuka Garrett Wilson, Tutu Atwell, Garrett Wilson tier. I think Waddle's going to probably ultimately settle in
7:19with those guys.
7:20Really a strong pick right now if you're drafting in July. We mentioned AJ Brown.
7:25He's another guy that you can't stop drafting. We've seen a huge ADP steam for him. FFPC, NFFC and on Underdog, a
7:33very recent occurrence, he flipped Drake London. So, there was like resistance.
7:37He was right next to Drake London and we saw AJ Brown flip him.
7:41Could he lead the NFL in touchdown catches this year?
7:44>> He absolutely can, Theo. And I think we're going to see a career season at A.J. Brown. And And again, this is not a
7:50hot take episode, but I I rank where I think it's either you're going based off of last year's results and expecting
7:56things to repeat, or you're worried about that, or you're trying to skate to where the puck is going to be, and
8:01that's where I am with my rankings. I don't care about consensus. I don't care about ADP and ECR and all that kind of
8:07stuff. I rank based off of what I'm projecting for the season. I have A.J.
8:11Brown as my wide receiver five right now in my rankings. And I know that, you know, that's not a ton above consensus,
8:17but it is when you look at overall rankings and A.J. Brown being like a second or third round pick, and I have
8:22him more closer to the one-two turn. And I think that's right though, Theo. Like A.J. Brown in run-centric offenses has still produced as the wide receiver 10,
8:3112, eight, and eight in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons. And everyone's like, "Oh, well, A.J. Brown took a step back last year." Well, first
8:39of all, he was dealing with an injury to open the season, and it still didn't stop him from ranking ninth in target
8:44share, 17th in yards per route run, eighth in first read share, and 20th in first downs per route run. So, still
8:49stellar in so many different metrics.
8:52And then we talk about the change in offensive structure of him going to the Eagles to the Patriots. Again, very much
8:58like Jaylen Waddle, where he goes from an Eagles offense that was 15th in neutral passing rate to a Patriots system that was ninth in neutral passing
9:05rate last year. And this is where we get to the touchdown upside. And I think A.J. Brown is live to score the most
9:11singular touchdowns in a single season that he's ever had in his entire career.
9:15When you talk about Philly was 32nd in passing rate inside the 10-yard line last year, the Patriots were 15th. That is a seismic seismic change, Theo. And
9:26A.J. Brown is going to be their go-to red zone weapon. And again, people are like, much like the Denver Broncos conversation, they're like, "But the
9:34Patriots spread out targets and stuff last year." And all this kind of stuff and there wasn't really an alpha number one. That's what you do when you don't
9:42have an alpha to command wide receiver one level volume and Stefon Diggs wasn't even a full-time player in that freaking offense last year.
9:52So A.J. Brown to the freaking moon, man.
9:54Like I think he has true like top three upside and that's what I'm saying with my ranking of him as a top five wide
10:01receiver and I want people to be above consensus. I want them to draft him aggressively because everybody's so worried about the health, the age, the
10:09change of systems and stuff and I'm over here saying, "What are y'all talking about?" This is all BS narrative street.
10:15When you look at the numbers, nothing says that and it should be wheels up.
10:20>> Yeah, it's a super interesting one and and I think you nailed it on a bunch of takes here where Stefon Diggs averaged
10:2712 and a half points per game last year in PPR. He had a thousand receiving yards. A.J. is such an upgrade at that
10:34wide receiver one spot. I mean, there's a chance he averages five, six points per game more than Diggs and I think
10:40like, you know, some people like when I discuss coach speak and quotes and I think some of it's a lot of fluff, but I
10:47one thing that stuck out with me was when the trade happened, they went up to Josh McDaniels and they all these
10:54Patriots beat reporters wanted him to compare this situation to when the Patriots got Randy Moss. They wanted him to say Randy Moss. Like they were
11:01begging for it. But he went out and said Rob Gronkowski and you talk about the red zone usage. I think it's going to be
11:09like A.J. Brown living in the red zone.
11:11We know what a presence he can be. We know, you know, a lot of these wide receiver one guys are somewhat moody when things don't go his
11:19way in terms of usage, but I think the Patriots know how the how to butter their bread and it's going to be A.J.
11:26Brown in the red zone, hyper targeting him, uh, an easy button target for Drake May, and like our friend Scott Here's
11:35another one. Okay, Scott Barrett, uh, who's who's our buddy, and Scott's Scott'll be on this show really soon, and Scott's super sharp. Scott's talked
11:41about how Drake May likes spreading the ball around. And therefore, he that gives him a little pause with A.J.
11:48Brown. I pushed back big on this one.
11:49Your thought on the narrative that Drake May is like the alpha-less, like, I don't know, quarterback communist who wants everybody to get three catches and
11:58then move on.
11:59>> You do that when you don't have a guy that can command volume. Targets are earned. Earning targets is a skill, and
12:07some of these players can only get to a 20 or a 22% target share, because that's their talent level. A.J. Brown has shown
12:13us that that he is an elite alpha that can command close to a 30% target share.
12:19And so, I I I'll push back against Barrett with that, too. But, I mean, I love Barrett, but like we just see this
12:25differently, where it's like I think he's going to be their clear, undisputed number one. And we talk about the touchdown upside again, Theo. For a
12:33player that has been wide receiver 10, 12, and eight of the last few season of the last three seasons, has scored no
12:39more than seven receiving touchdowns in each of those seasons. So, what happens this year, Theo, if he gets similar volume, if he doesn't even get the
12:47volume bump that we're talking about here, because they're they're going to be more pass-happy, and and I think New England probably leans into the pass
12:54even more this year, because more difficult schedule, better weapons for Drake May, and the ability to chuck the freaking ball around the yard.
13:03If they don't even do that, and they just he gets the touchdown upside, then where are we going to see?
13:08Like, if he scores 12 touchdowns, and even the peripheral stays similar, he's going to be a top-five option, just because of the increased touchdown
13:16equity.
13:17>> It's funny how I didn't think this would end up being like A.J. Brown-type channel here, but I'm on A.J. Brown. I'm
13:23ahead of consensus. I have him slightly ahead of ADP. I think I had him and again my rankings up at rotowire.com.
13:30You can access those use the code Theo15 get 15% off.
13:35Awesome tools over at Rotowire. I was actually plugging in a bunch of my FFPC teams into our team sync. Absolutely sick stuff over there. But AJ Brown I
13:44had like ahead of ADP and it's funny. I don't think I'm high enough on him based on actual drafts I've been in. I've been
13:51in FFPC drafts where there's been some like sharp guys really pushing him up towards the beginning of the second.
13:56NFFC which is a start three wide receiver format, PPR format which is a little bit slightly wide receiver heavy drafters. AJ's going like 10 in some of
14:05those drafts. So like the money is the money is and people always say like Theo why do you talk about NFFC FFPC? I play
14:13sleeper, I play ESPN, I play Yahoo. It's because those are the money drafts in early July.
14:19The ADP for sleeper matters more when we get to the end of August but these guys are drafting every night for $350
14:25leagues, uh $2,000 league starting the FFPC. So like we're following the money with ADP there and everybody's speaking and just sort of keeping track. When I'm
14:34saying this is turning into an AJ Brown show, Jacob Gibb show was fire. Jacob Gibb is all over AJ Brown. He's just as
14:40high as you are if not higher.
14:42Uh Nelson Sousa that's one of his targets this year. Nelson's one of the best high stakes guys in the country.
14:47>> That Nelson's savage.
14:48>> Yeah. That's Nelson like one of his main targets is AJ Brown. Uh he shared several other targets and fades on the
14:54show if you didn't listen to it. Check it out on the podcast or if you're watching on YouTube check that one out.
14:58Um Dave Klugey all over him and now Debro all over him. I haven't had a guest that's been like negative towards
15:05AJ Brown. I'll say here's the one the one thing with AJ Brown. I have Drake London ahead of AJ Brown. So it's if
15:12it's a head to head decision for me I'm sort of leaning into London. Would it be fair for me to say Drake London is the
15:19safer pick but maybe AJ Brown if everything goes well because of the offensive environment is a higher upside pick if I'm looking at wide receiver in
15:27that range.
15:28London London's got some London's got some upside too there.
15:31>> I He does, but I I lean with A.J. Brown in both of those instances. Like I think he has the higher floor and the higher
15:37ceiling because of the quarterback play.
15:39Like Atlanta's quarterback play and their scoring opportunities that could limit London. Like he could he could absolutely just crush in a
15:47volume perspective and have such a high floor and the spike weeks. But the when you're comparing apples to apples, it's like which one of these offenses do you
15:55think scores more touchdowns? And it could be a massive chasm of how many touchdowns this year. It's easy the Patriots for me, Theo. And I have A.J.
16:04Brown just for context I have him as my eighth overall player right now.
16:08>> I I love it. I love the conviction. I'll say the last time DeBro was this convicted on A.J. Brown, he was telling
16:14you to draft the Jalen Hurts A.J. Brown stack. And that was the That was the year that A.J. Brown was traded to Philly. A.J. Brown at that
16:22time was a two-three turn pick. And DeBro was telling everybody to draft that stack. That stack ended up being unbelievably valuable in fantasy
16:30football. So, listen to DeBro when he's talking about A.J. Brown for sure. And I'll continue the Drake London A.J.
16:36Brown debate. I My answer is both, but I I I think Drake I think Drake London is is just I think he's that guy. I think
16:43he's awesome. I'll talk about him all summer long. Um let's stay at the wide receiver position. You got a couple more
16:48wide outs here. Uh let's talk about Christian Watson. Cuz Christian Watson we've seen his steam in ADP. Um again, you're you're paying a much higher price
16:58tag, but he's sort of going near some of these older wide receivers like the you know, and and we're seeing in in the
17:04NFFC FFPC sort of near the Davante Adams, Mike Evans, D.J. Brown I I excuse excuse me. D.J. Moore tier of wide outs.
17:14And I don't know. I've drafted a ton of Christian Watson, but the price is going up and up and up. Where are you at on
17:21Watson? What could a ceiling case season look like for him?
17:25>> So, where is he at right now in ADP in high stakes? Because I have him as wide receiver 19 in my rankings. That's where
17:33I've been. I've had him in that wide receiver 19 to 21 range. Um but that that's where I think he should be and I
17:40think there's a ton of upside there, Theo. Like I think Christian Watson Watson has top 15 or wide receiver one upside. I think we could see a very Will
17:48Fuller type of Terry McLaurin ceiling type of outcome for Christian Watson.
17:53Because if even if you look at last year, he produced as a top 24 wide receiver when he was back from the
17:59injury weeks 8 through 18. Wide receiver 21 in fantasy points per game. The clear number one for the Green Bay Packers. He
18:07led them in target share. He averaged 61.1 receiving yards per game. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are gone. So, the big thing for Christian Watson this
18:15year is I still think that Green Bay is going to get some of the other guys like Sam Williams involved and they're going
18:21to run not like a true rotation of like six dudes like they did previously. But but with Christian Watson, again talking
18:28about a guy similar to Stefon Diggs last year, he was a part-time player in that offense. He only had a 68% route share.
18:34Which out of 109 qualifying wide receivers, which basically every wide receiver that had at least 200 routes last year.
18:41That ranked 56, Theo. So, if Watson produces at this level and we have a long string of Watson being ultra hyper
18:50efficient on a per route basis over so many seasons where it's like, well good lord, he had 2.67 yards per route run.
18:58That's insane. Is that going to come down?
19:00I There are certain offenses and certain players after a certain amount of time, we need to just expect they are going to
19:07be outliers. Jordan Love is an outlier in passing touchdown rate, much like Brock Purdy is every single season. That will continue. It continued for Russell
19:15Wilson for almost his entire career. So, I think that holds and Christian Watson's ultra-efficiency on a per route basis holds. So, if he gets if the route
19:24share goes up and we all talk about volume as king, yes, it's target volume, but it's also route volume. I mean, look
19:30at what Trey McBride did last year. He ran more like over 160 more routes than any other freaking tight end. If Watson
19:36gets a bump in routes and maintains this hyper-efficiency and he was wide receiver 21 in fantasy points per game, Theo. Good lord, dude. Like he's going
19:45to be a top 15, possibly a wide receiver one this year and you get to draft him unless I'm wrong and and I'm curious
19:52where ADP has has gone with him. He was a wide receiver three in almost every format to open the off season and even
19:59recently, but has he steamed up into wide receiver two territory?
20:02>> We're starting to see him steam up and again, if we if we're looking at NFFC, it's a little higher cuz it's wide
20:07receiver centric. FFPC, he's wide receiver 26. I think that's about where he's going to settle. And again, it's like it's not high enough for me either.
20:16Again, we talk about like the the wide receiver ones in their offense like Mike Evans and DJ Moore, I'll go Christian
20:23Watson over either of those guys. Um and I know you're a little higher on Evans than I am. We'll talk about him later.
20:29Um Davante Adams uh over versus Watson, I'm going to actually go Watson this year. And then you go down the list like
20:36Rome Odunze versus Watson, I'm going Christian Watson. So, it's sort of like it's easy clicks for me and people are so caught up on Christian Watson burned
20:45me in years past because of injuries.
20:47Green Bay just told you a lot about what they think of Christian Watson's health and his upward trajectory. They stuck with him through the injuries. Now
20:54they're in a position where he's going to be on the field a ton and he's going to be featured. They gave him alpha wide
21:01receiver one overall type money. And when I talked about this with Jared Smola, I'm like, you know, Watson's a guy where he's been at like a 19%
21:10target share guy.
21:12Could we get to a point where he's like 23%? 22%? Not like out of this world target share, but just a little bit higher, make the weekly
21:20floor a little bit higher, and make him more of a part of the the game plan. And you look at them this off season,
21:27Dontayvion Wicks would have those blow-up games and then disappear. Uh Romeo Doubs was constantly a headache for fantasy managers. We'd say, "Why is
21:36Jayden Reed not getting the time and Romeo Doubs getting it? We drafted Reed." Like it's And then you got both those guys gone. And I think what's
21:44going to happen is the three wide receivers are going to really, really tighten up. It's not going to be sporadic usage. It's going to be Reed,
21:51Golden, Watson. It's kind of Reed versus Golden in two wide receiver sets. Watson will be on the field in two wide
21:58receiver sets, three wide receiver sets.
22:00He's going to get a lot of first-read rates, and the guy can get behind any defense in the NFL. So, there's a lot to
22:05like. You mentioned Terry McLaurin. It sort of feels like 2024 Terry McLaurin when McLaurin set the Washington Commanders/Redskins record for the most
22:15touchdowns in franchise history. Feels like that one. And then also I can always bring this one up with the pro Watson takes. And really, if you
22:22disagree with us, take a shot on Jayden Reed or or or or Tucker Kraft or something. It feels like Green Bay,
22:30they've had two big disappointing losses. They've lost in the wild card round, the first round of the NFL playoffs, back-to-back years. Or Two
22:38years ago, did they win one? I I got I got to double-check that. But last year, lose to Chicago first week of the
22:42playoffs. The year before that, they get steamrolled by Philadelphia on the way to Philadelphia's Super Bowl. And it's like things have got to change a little
22:50bit. I think LaFleur view And and the franchise view themselves as a big contender. So, lean a little bit more into Jordan Love. I think that's great
22:57stuff. Let's talk about Parker Washington, where it's a constant discussion for me with every single guest um that when we just talk wide
23:04receivers it's sort of a BTJ versus Parker Washington thing. And I don't think it has to be in like a like it
23:10doesn't have to be like I'm only drafting one of them type deal, but are you on if you had one single fantasy
23:16team and I told you you got to draft a Liam Cohen wide receiver, are you going with Parker Washington or you go going
23:22with a bounce back year from BTJ?
23:25>> I'm going with Parker Washington and there is no hesitation for me and the thing that I think kind of kind of gets
23:31lost there's a few different things that I think kind of get lost in this conversation with Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington. One, Brian Thomas Jr.
23:38when he came back at the tail end of last season and they're going to run back this three wide receiver core that
23:43they had last year. Brian Thomas Jr. was the lid lid lid lifter. He was the the high A dot, the field stretching guy.
23:50Parker Washington was basically Jacksonville's Amon-Ra St. Brown in the back half of last year and I don't think if you're looking at all these different
23:58roles Parker Washington's not going to become like BTJ, fine, if you want to make anybody wants to make a case of can
24:04he do what Parker Washington does? I don't think that the like that's a really applicable skill set one-to-one that like to ask him to operate in the
24:11role that Parker Washington did to in the last season, but Parker Washington's not going to be the field stretcher. Zay Jones is not a field stretcher.
24:19So, Brian Thomas Jr. is going to fill that role and that's not a high volume role. Like Trevor Lawrence was more
24:24aggressive going down the field last year.
24:26But I think when you look at the roles that these guys played to end last season when Jacksonville was cooking, Theo, then why are we like dismissive or
24:35questioning Parker Washington? Because it wasn't just like he was this like dump and run Wan'Dale Robinson of Jacksonville. He was getting usage and
24:44high leverage usage. Like week six through 19, everybody brings up this stretch and they talk about he had a 28.9% target share. He had 3.78 yards
24:53per route run. He had a 33.3% first read share. Those are all Amon-Ra type of numbers. Insane usage. But, the thing
25:01that gets lost in the sauce of that conversation at times is in those four games he also had six red zone targets. He
25:08also had 13 deeps on deep targets. So, there is high cholesterol usage that leads to upside outside of just this massive volume infusion. And I'm not
25:18worried about Travis Hunter this year.
25:20That's the other thing. People like, "Well, Travis Hunter was the slot wide receiver." They need Travis Hunter to play full-time corner this year. And if
25:27he's going to impact anybody on that field, like I don't see that when he does come onto the field, I think
25:33there's more of a chance that Jacksonville gets weird with him and they use 10 personnel and go four wide there and say we got two slot wide
25:40receivers as opposed to Parker Washington coming off of the field in those sets. I think Parker Washington is set up to smash, dude. And in that in
25:49that uh stretch of games he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game. That is akin to Ja'Marr Chase level, like top three wide
26:00receiver type of output. If he does that this year, he is going to be a massive, massive type of draft pick that is going
26:09to flip leagues. If he's even close to that production. Even if you nerf it and say, "Fine, he doesn't produce at 22
26:15fantasy points per game." which is absolutely insane, Cleo. If he's still at freaking like 18 or 17, we are talking about a massive ADP win.
26:25>> Yeah, I think with with with me it's I've had the the take that both of them are fine. And you're starting to see
26:32you're you're starting to see Park So, what's happening now is you're seeing BTJ steaming up into like the late fifths {slash} sixth. And Parker
26:40Washington starting to slide into the seventh. So, I actually don't mind the double tap and betting on both of these guys. It's sort of a Jakobi Meyers fade
26:47here. BTJ, I think that the ceiling outcome could still be there. He's going to get a lot of end zone targets, but
26:53really you bring up like the Amon-Ra St.
26:55Brown thing, we saw it before with Liam Coen in 2024 with the Chris Godwin season where it was only seven games, but it was Chris
27:03Godwin absolutely cooking. And when people say, "Oh, you know, Debro's talking about like give you this big round number scoring, sample size is
27:09small." It was consistent. And if you include the playoffs, it was five out of last seven games he had 18 points or
27:15more. So, it was not like some big 35-point blow-up week that like influenced this this point per game number. So, I'm open-minded to both of
27:23these guys. I think Jacksonville in general is sort of priced to to produce where like even like Touton where there's some
27:30question marks, he's now he's in the sixth round, BTJ's in the sixth round, Parker Washington in seventh, Trevor Lawrence is at a fun price, too, where
27:38we think this offense could score a lot, we think Liam Coen is really smart at play calling, and none of these guys are
27:43going to cost you a high draft pick. So, I think Parker Washington is super interesting. There's a a really smart hive of guys like yourself on Parker
27:51Washington pounding the table for him.
27:53Here's one thing that Jacob Gibbs brought up that sort of his doom and gloom scenario for Parker Washington.
27:58He's on him, too. But he made an interesting point that Jacksonville wants to do all this heavy personnel.
28:04They kind of showed you this off season with all these tight end pickups and giving Brenton Strange this huge bag. Uh
28:11do you think that that Parker Washington we could end up in something where he's boxed out a little bit in certain games
28:18because of this the lack of three wide receiver sets? Does that worry you at all? Or is it sort of like his usage is
28:25going to be so strong when he's actually on the field that he could overcome anything sort of weird on that sort of
28:31front?
28:32>> I mean, for him to get boxed out, like we would have to see just legendary type of like I mean, basically they would
28:38have to be like the the Rams they ended last year in 12 and 13 personnel. Like that's But those levels of like
28:45expecting a team to run multiple tight end sets that often is expecting even more of an outlier than expecting Parker Washington
28:55to be a full-time player if that all makes sense. And the other thing about that Okay, let's play that out Theo. What if
29:01they do utilize 12 and 13 personnel more but what if it's more on rushing plays and it's not in the passing downs? Like
29:09both of those things can be true and it not impact Parker Washington. And the other thing that could be true what if
29:16Parker Washington is the guy in two wide receiver sets over a Jacory Myers? That could also play out too and it's like
29:24with the the amount of usage and the fact that he was their clear undisputed wide receiver one to end the season like
29:33you just can't put that genie back in the bottle Theo. Like you don't go away from a guy much like Christian Watson.
29:39Whenever an offense and an offensive scheme and a and a coaching staff leans on a guy and they say can you be our
29:45wide receiver one? Can you be this elite weapon? Can you lead us to the promised land? Can we lean on you in that type of
29:53way? Christian Watson answered answered the bell he got paid. Parker Washington is also up for a contract. He answered the bell. So right now if they lean on
30:01him and he answered the bell why would they go away from that? Tell me that Theo. Like that's the other side of this
30:06coin. When you saw how good this freaking offense was leaning on Parker Washington for almost a 30% target share why in the absolute hell would Liam
30:16Cohen go away from that this year? Why?
30:19>> Yeah, I think that's >> To get Nate Borkercher more snaps on the field? Like come on dude.
30:23>> I think that's sort of like the you know when when when the the stakes were at their highest and Jacksonville
30:30was playing Buffalo in the playoffs what did they do in that game? They hyper targeted and hyper used Parker Washington. I also think what's
30:38interesting with with Parker Washington you talk about like explosive plays the guy's very explosive. I think like, you know, you you ask somebody what what
30:45what is Parker Washington, they sort of gravitate towards the like the slot usage. Uh he had a ton of explosive of
30:52plays that went for 20 plus yards, and they've talked about getting the ball in his hands and some manufactured touch it
30:57touches as well. So, Parker Washington, when he's there in round seven, really really really interesting value. Let's pivot over to the running back position.
31:06Let's go we talk about this year's version of is David Montgomery the 2026 version of 2024 Joe Mixon when Joe Mixon show
31:17showed up in Houston and was one of the best of ADP values on the entire board.
31:22I believe Mixon was north of 16 points per game that year, maybe 17 early on in the year, was giving you running back
31:29one production right out of the gate. It sort of feels like Houston wants to be very physical on both sides of the ball.
31:37They added a lot on the offensive line, and they went out and got David Montgomery, and they're saying a lot of
31:44really nice things about him. Most recently, Nick Caley came out and said he's all day tough, and then he went on
31:50to sort of praise the guy as I mean, that's that's that's high praise. That's an absolute bar from Nick Caley. Your
31:56thoughts on David Montgomery, is he a safe pick or is he an upside pick?
32:00People always say upside when it's like these younger guys, but David Montgomery 2 years of sort of in the background behind Jahmyr Gibbs, there's a lot of
32:08juice left in that tank despite him being a slightly the older back.
32:11>> There's an incredibly high floor and there's RB1 upside with him. To your point, Joe Mixon in that season, RB9 in
32:17fantasy points per game, 17.2 PPR points per game. He finished that season, Theo, with 281 touches, and you look at all
32:27like basically Joe Mixon's usage in that year, fifth in opportunities share, 14th in snap share, 13th in carries amongst running backs. David Montgomery's is to
32:35come close if not surpass all of those totals this year. He's going to flirt with 300 touches and I think he's going
32:40to put up RB1 type of numbers, depending on how the touchdowns shake out for Houston. I'm not worried about Woody Marks at all. David Montgomery is
32:49getting framed because of his age as a dead zone back this year and I think it's unequivocally wrong. Your dead zone
32:55backs that we talk about in yesteryear is guys that like we believe in the volume, but the big question is is the efficiency going to
33:03be there? And then if the efficiency is not there, then they fall by the wayside and they get crushed because they're
33:08inefficient. Other players on the depth chart depth chart can eat into their workload or by mid-season hop them. We saw that with Madison, we've seen it
33:16with other previous running backs like Raheem White in previous years. And I don't think that David Montgomery, who is getting framed as this dead zone
33:23back, is a dead zone back at all because he doesn't fit that that paradigm. He's not in that type of tier, Theo. When you
33:31look at David Montgomery on a per touch basis last year, amongst all running backs with at least 100 carries, he was 30th in missed
33:38tackle rate, he was 12th in yards after contact per attempt, he was 22nd in yards per route run and 12th in first
33:45downs per route run. So still uber efficient both on the ground and through the air and oh by the way, he surpassed
33:53for for the Woody Marks hive out there, he surpassed Woody Marks on a per touch basis in explosive run rate, missed
34:00tackle rate, rushing success, yards after contact per attempt and yards per route run. So it's actually actually just oh, I don't know, every single
34:07freaking metric we should care about when we look at running back play and talent and skill. What David Montgomery lapped Woody Marks, just kept running
34:14around him at his age. He's not washed, he is going to be their unquestioned bellcow and I think you're getting him
34:23at mid to a low end RB2 prices and he is going to flirt with RB1 value and production this year. He is a smash
34:30pick.
34:31>> Yeah, I'm with you and it's one of the main reasons that I'm I love having a hero RB build this year.
34:37Is I know I'm going to get access to guys like David Montgomery at that four-five turn. He's running back 21 right now. It's sort of a bigger a
34:45bigger conversation is I don't mind a lot of these perceived dead zone guys this year. I think there's like some room to run where
34:53people talk about how these guys should be going a little lower. I think there's sources of potential volume with some other guys around Montgomery, but it's
35:00like Montgomery is aided by the fact that he's the old guy that's surrounded by all these like year two guys. So,
35:06it's Chatwood and Judkins and Tray on Henderson and Basil Tooten and then David Montgomery just sitting there as like the old guy.
35:15Um I'm with you. I think that David Montgomery there's a a ton of value in him, and structurally it allows you to go running back in
35:24round one or running back in round two, go with like one of the best wide receivers in football in round round one
35:30or round two, and then you can hit elite tight end, wide receiver, wide receiver, and then come back and get David
35:35Montgomery in round five. I think the hero RB build is going to be kind of back to it, and I think it's also uh
35:42open-minded to it because I think a lot of people are telling you go get running back running back. Well, I find guys in
35:47round five that I think are really good values, and it gets access to guys like you mentioned AJ Brown, I mentioned
35:52Drake London, Brock Bowers in a lot of PPR leagues. So, interesting stuff. And also, what do you make of his 25? All
35:59this stuff about like year two like what do you make of his a finished product who caught a ton of passes in college?
36:06Like the one of the upside things about what do you make of his he was NFL ready as a pass catcher, had the opportunity
36:12last year, gave us a couple of strong weeks. But, if Houston had this overwhelming enthusiasm with what do you make of his, they could have done things
36:20a lot cheaper at the running back position than going out and getting David Montgomery. There's plenty of guys they could have gotten a a Dowdle
36:26Foreman, Rashad White, those kind of guys. You go out and you get a David Montgomery, and you pay him the bag. So,
36:32uh David Montgomery, I'm completely with you. I think he's a strong click. Let's talk about another running back. Let's talk about the the ultimate comeback
36:40story, but the price of a brick is going up, D'Bro.
36:44Jonathan Brooks is rising and rising and rising in drafts, but is it just correct? And is he the running back one
36:52in a Dave Canales offense? And we're actually getting a discount on him because of the presence of Chuba Hubbard? Or is there like a resistance
37:00point where you're like, "Ah, I got to pump the brakes a little."
37:03>> I'm not pumping the brakes at all, baby.
37:04It's all gas. Where is he at in ADP? Cuz I want to know cuz I've had him at this rank, and I
37:09have not moved him for like the last 2 months.
37:12I want to know is ADP caught up with where I am right now in my rankings.
37:16>> So, running back 30, um and ahead of Chuba Hubbard slightly. Yeah, slightly ahead of Chuba Hubbard in FFPC, but what's interesting is the NFFC drafter,
37:27they have him like 30 spots ahead of Chuba. Like, NFFC drafters are gravitating towards the upside. And then if we want to talk about what round does
37:35that mean? So, like when we first had these pro Jonathan Brooks conversations D'Bro on like a pod months ago, we're like, "Oh my god, 10th round Jonathan
37:43Brooks all day long. Ninth round Jonathan Brooks all day long." You're starting to see him living in like round eight, round seven. And then we've seen
37:51the occasional round six Brooks. So, we talked about those dead zone backs.
37:56Sometimes in drafts now, you'll see drafts be super running back heavy, where like Montgomery goes in the fourth instead of the fifth. And you see like
38:04Travion and Judkins and Scat Abu pulled up. And then you'll see Brooks getting pulled up with like Swift and JaMycal Hasty and those kind of guys. So,
38:13I would say if you're going to like a home league draft, you have like a sleeper or an ESPN Yahoo. And drafters
38:19are getting sharper these days. They're not like influenced by like what the default rankings are on like Yahoo or something like that. Like, you can
38:26probably comfortably get Brooks in round seven, but if you think you're getting him in round eight or lower, I don't think it's happening anymore.
38:33>> Yeah, I and right now, so I have him uh as RB 29 in my rankings. And I've got him at 77th
38:43overall, Theo. Um and I think that that's appropriate because then you're getting at the top tier of that RB3 range where it's like split backfields.
38:51You're playing the game of is it Ramondre? Is it Travion? Is it Rico Dowdle? Is it Jaylen Warren? Well, we're doing the same thing with Jonathan
38:58Brooks, but the upside that he could truly take over that backfield where all these other guys, if you want to talk
39:03about even Bucky Irving versus Kenneth Gainwell, all of these committee backfields and everybody's like throwing their hands up like, "I don't know what
39:08to do with all of this." Well, you're doing that the same thing with Jonathan Brooks, but you're getting a discount and he could truly take over the
39:14backfield this year. When we look at Chuba Hubbard, was one of the most inefficient running backs in the entire NFL last year. He had zero explosive
39:23runs last year, Theo, on over 130 carries. He was bottom five in missed tackles forced, yard after contact per attempt.
39:30>> Yeah.
39:30>> Everything on a per touch basis that you look at. And Brooks, again, like the thing that that people are so scared off
39:36about is the two torn ACLs. Well, if you followed the news on him from the jump after the first ACL repair, nothing was
39:43glittering and amazing. They were all like, "Oh, well, he's Everything was very tepid." And then the ACL reconstruction failed. It just seemed
39:51like it was doomed from the start if you were reading in between the lines. And I think we're going to get the Jonathan
39:56Brooks that was an amazing prospect So, to be kind to rewind, his final year in college, amongst all FBS running backs at least
40:04100 carries, 21st in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in elusive rating, and 21st in yards per route run. So, if
40:13he starts the season off as the passing down back and Chuba Hubbard is eating into the early downs. Fine. I'm not
40:19playing for weeks 1 through 5, Theo.
40:21When I'm drafting Jonathan Brooks as an RB3, I'm playing for the rest of the freaking season of the back half of the
40:27season when he's rocking it as their clear RB1 on an improved offense that's going to remain run-centric and he's a top 15 back on a weekly basis in
40:36rankings. So, Jonathan Brooks, there's so much freaking upside for him to tilt the leagues in the sense of you're drafting him as your RB3 or RB4 on
40:45teams. And if he produces and he and by the middle of the season we turn over the cards, Theo, and he is a weekly RB2,
40:52but he's an RB2 in your freaking flex spot, this is what puts teams over the top in best ball, in high stakes, in all
41:01of these formats. It's just easy money.
41:05>> Dave Canales is also an RB whisperer.
41:07We've seen it with multiple backs, multiple seasons, including getting the most out of Chuba Hubbard. So, I'm with you. I think Brooks, even when the price
41:15has gone up, it's sort of like where he belongs. Uh it's also been multiple instances where a Canales back has sort
41:21of taken over. We saw it last year with D'Onta Foreman providing all that value.
41:25What it comes down to for me with Brooks is if he's healthy, he's actually, I think, a safer pick than some people let
41:32on because he's such a talented receiver and I think that's something that this Canales offense wants where Chuba Hubbard, you're very limited with what
41:41you can do with him as a receiver, even as an opportunistic pass catcher, he's not very good. Whereas Brooks, you can
41:47scheme and design stuff to get the ball in his hands. Elite potential use in the screen game. You talk about Texas, his
41:54numbers at Texas were pretty much in line with Bijan Robinson's when he took over that year. So, we're talking about really high-level prospect coming out.
42:03Was the first running back off the board in the 2024 draft class.
42:07So, when we talk about running backs, you know, everybody knows the first round guys. Don't have to dive them at all, but in round two there is literally
42:14like five or six backs who go back-to-back-to-back in like all formats now.
42:18Kenneth Walker, O'Marien Hampton, Devon Achane, Chase Brown, and Saquon Barkley.
42:24What's the right answer with that group of five guys?
42:28>> Chase Brown. Chase Brown all day every day, baby. And I was I I'm not going to say I've been out on Chase Brown in
42:34previous seasons. I really like Chase Brown, but I am I'm just I'm all in on him this year and I see top three type
42:42of upside from him, Theo, because that's how he's produced in various iterations of the seasons previously. And everybody was so like burned out the gate last
42:51year for Chase Brown and another player like if you drafted him last year, you remember the sting of like weeks 1
42:56through 5 when he was RB 34 in fantasy points per game, but it kind of gets lost in the sauce in weeks 6 through 18.
43:02He was the RB6 in fantasy points per game, Theo. And then everybody wants to interject into the conversation, "Well, yeah, but what about Samaje Perine?"
43:09Okay, what about Samaje Perine? So, in weeks 13 through 18 when Samaje Perine was back, Chase Brown still played 60.5% of
43:17the snaps, so still the clear back and he played 70.6% of the snaps in the red zone. And so, the reason I bring all this up is
43:26because Chase Brown was still the preferred back in the red zone. The problem though, Theo, is that the usage as far as touchdowns and red zone
43:35carries, just how it shook out, despite Chase Brown in weeks 13 through 18 having that 70 almost 72% red zone snap
43:42rate, he had 17 red zone carries versus Perine's 13. If that comes back more towards the the the variance swings and
43:50the median swings back to Chase Brown in the touchdown department, even if Perine stays like at a 30% snap rate during the
43:57season or a 35% snap rate, if the touch touchdowns and the usage for Chase Brown swings back in his direction and I mean basically what
44:06we're talking about with touchdown usage and red zone usage during that same stretch weeks 13 through 18, Chase Brown was the
44:15RB2 in fantasy points per game, Theo.
44:18He's got the top three upside and basically you're drafting him as a top 10 player. I've got him as a round one
44:25guy and I'm willing to take him there if I have to in various formats because I think we're going to see a career season
44:32and the other thing we want to talk about, Theo, is we want to bet on guys in contract seasons. Hello, Chase Brown. He's going
44:38to have a monster season and try to get paid in an improved offense for the Bengals and everybody's like, "Well, you
44:44had an improved offense." Like, yeah, we get a full season of Joe Burrow and more positive game scripts with an improved
44:50defense behind the Bengals and I saw it on Twitter and I kind of pushed back against this yesterday and it was like,
44:55"Yeah, but if the defense is improved, then Chase Brown's not going to get all these checkdowns." Wait a minute. Wait a
45:00minute. Then you're not looking deep enough, I truly think. Because if you look at Joe Burrow over the last five years in games, in these situations
45:08where we're talking about like close games, neutral script. So, in games within three points on the board for Cincinnati, Joe Burrow has been top 13
45:17in three of those five seasons in checkdown rate. So, sure, like they've done more checkdowns if the Bengals have been been trailing. That
45:26that's intuitive. I get that common sense. But that doesn't mean that Joe Burrow goes away from the checkdowns and using Chase Brown in the passing game
45:33even when the score is close, Theo. I just think that we're set up for a Chase Brown smash season.
45:38>> Yeah, I mean, the Bengals are a team that's they're really kind of easy to figure out. It's going to be incredibly
45:42consolidated. It's as much as Ja'Marr Chase can handle. Tee Higgins, one of the better wide receiver twos in football, if not the biggest upside wide
45:50receiver two. And then you've got Chase Brown who's been such an effective player. You bring up like Samaje Perine.
45:56Like, are people actually bringing up Samaje Perine? Like, Samaje Perine will be 31 years old in September. It's a huge positive to Chase Brown that that's
46:05the running back two behind him. Chase Brown averaged 16 plus points per game last year. He had 69 catches.
46:12Um, there's a lot to like there. He's a super safe pick at the running back position and he has upside. The Bengals
46:19just feel like a team that could just be scoring like point after point after point. I think they're the favorite for
46:24me in the AFC North and even though they've improved their defense significantly, it's still a team that's going to lean towards shootout
46:32environments with that sort of passing game. So, Chase Brown really a strong pick. I think there's a couple of guys I'm interested in that range, but Chase
46:39Brown certainly, if you walk out of your draft with wide receiver Chase Brown as your start or another running back and
46:46then Chase Brown, you're feeling really good about where you're at structure-wise.
46:50Let's finish this off. Last player to talk about, if a tight end not named Brock Bowers finishes as the tight end one overall
46:59this season, who is it going to be?
47:02>> It's Dalton Kincaid, easily, Theo. I love him and I think that he is going to be another guy that defines leagues for
47:08people this year because I think you're looking at Dalton Kincaid, he can be this year's he can be last year's Trey McBride. Is basically
47:16where it boils down to. And if you look at Dalton Kincaid again, people want to talk about, okay, well, you're using
47:21small samples here and I've done it with Parker Washington, we've talked about Christian Watson, we talked a lot about a lot of different players.
47:29Using the small sample, fine. Can it be you're you're basically baking in some risk of if that small sample does not replicate into a
47:39full season in the next year. Okay, fine. I'm willing to drink and and just absolutely just guzzle down that that risk because this is where we've seen
47:48Rashee Rice of previous years, Amon-Ra St. Brown of previous years, where we've taken small samples and said, "If you're the guy, you're the freaking guy." And
47:55last year when the Bears needed him the most, Cole Kmet Loveland was that dude week 16 16 through 20 last year, Theo.
48:03Cole Kmet Loveland had a 25.6% target share.
48:07He would had he averaged 81.6 receiving yards. He had 2.49 yards per route run.
48:12And a 34% first read share, 0.116 first downs per route run. I know I'm throwing a lot of numbers at people.
48:19Just know that if he would have produced at that rate throughout the entire season amongst all tight ends with at least 20 targets, he would have ranked
48:27first, first, fourth, first, fourth, and second in all so top four in every one of those metrics. And if you compare
48:34those metrics in that sample size, Theo, to 2025 Trey McBride and 2024 Brock Bowers, which again are
48:44the two guys right next to him in ADP and ahead of him in ADP, on all of those per route numbers, Theo,
48:51in that sample size, Cole Kmet Loveland bested both of those seasons. Those numbers are better than Trey McBride was last year. They are better than Brock
49:01Bowers was in 2024. If we get a full season of that type of freaking usage from Cole Kmet Loveland this year,
49:08Theo, he's going to flirt or be the runaway tight end one in fantasy and you are getting him as the tight end three
49:16right now behind those other two guys.
49:18>> It's sort of finding reasons to fade Cole Kmet Loveland. I mean, it's really hard for me to to find reasons to like
49:24not click him when he when he's available. You talk about all those metrics, plus you have the the pedigree where he's such a highly drafted player.
49:33It was one of the first it was the first first round pick for Ben Johnson in his era as Chicago Bears head coach. Um
49:41there's something to that. And you talk about the explosive plays, the YAC ability, and he gets those downfield looks. Uh the air yards, I mean, I think
49:50it's would be of be a surprise if he doesn't lead all tight ends in air yards this year as well. Like he's going to
49:55get over the top deep looks in this offense. We know the scheme is great.
50:00And oh yeah, he's got a quarterback who likes to target him and he's got a head coach who is maybe the best play caller
50:06in football. I mean, there's probably some Sean McVay people out there, but Ben Johnson top top two, top three.
50:11Debro top two. Yeah, there we go. Okay, we'll we'll scale it back a little bit.
50:15Debro, we've done some bold prediction shows. I'm sure we'll do them again at some point. Let everyone know once again where they can find your work and then
50:22drop the boldest bold prediction you've got for the 2026 fantasy football season.
50:28>> Find all of it at FantasyPros. Currently all a ton of my draft kit stuff is out right now. I've got my perfect draft
50:34article which literally walks you through 80 plus players and every round of your draft. So if you need what that one thing for your draft, if you're not
50:42using the tools over at Rotowire or FantasyPros and stuff, then pull this article up. Have it for all your drafts.
50:47As well as my player at my top targets article was live. My players to avoid is also live. And before we get into the
50:53meat and potatoes like heavy heavy draft season, my top 200 will be live on fantasypros.com and that is legit exactly what it sounds like. It is 200
51:02players and yes, it's quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end.
51:05Also, I'm I am a psycho. I'm going to write up 15 to 20 kickers and defenses.
51:11So whether you are playing best ball, whether you are playing deep leagues, whether you are playing your eight team office league, that top 200 will cover
51:18you for all of it, Theo. And my boldest prediction that I can sling at you right now, man, is that Mike Evans will lead
51:25the entire freaking NFL in receiving touchdowns. He will be 2024 Davante Adams. You look at Evans, he is not washed. He was second in separation
51:35score and route win rate last year. And people want to talk about, "Well, yeah, but he didn't produce that well."
51:40He had one of the lowest catchable target rates in the entire NFL with Baker Mayfield playing like a shell of himself last year. Brock Purdy has
51:47proven that he is an outlier like I talked about previously in passing touchdown rate. In three of the last four seasons, he has had a 7% or higher
51:54passing touchdown rate. So, you look at Mike Evans, he enters an offense that was eighth in red zone scoring attempts per game last
52:03year, Theo. They had two guys for San Francisco that were inside the top 10 in red zone targets. Christian McCaffrey being one of them. Jauan Jennings, who
52:12is not on the team this year, being the other guy. Mike Evans is live to lead the NFL in red zone targets. If all this
52:20happens, Mike Evans is going to be another smash ADP win for people.
52:24>> Well, there we go. Check out Derek Brown. Highly recommend all of his work.
52:27Stick with us here at RotoWire. We're dropping a show a day in July and August. We're going to help you crush
52:33your fantasy leagues this season.
52:35>> [music]

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