The Best Players on New Teams and Introducing the Hottest QB Rankings

The source believes AJ Brown is positioned for an elite fantasy season in New England. Brown is an elite receiver who was not fully engaged in Philadelphia but will be highly motivated on the Patriots. At 29 years old and healthy, the offensive environment is significantly better than his last two years in Philly; Drake May threw 500 more yards than Jalen Hurts has ever thrown in a season and is better equipped to make throws complementing Brown's skill set. Brown adds verticality the Patriots lacked and can line up in the slot more than he did in Philadelphia, where he was dead last in slot usage. The source ranks him 14th overall, though other analysts have him 21st and 36th, reflecting significant variance in the market. The source acknowledges the Eagles traded Brown for a reason and that he checked out on a contending team, which is a red flag, but contextualizes this as motivation for a fresh start rather than a permanent concern.

The source believes Ashton Jenty will be underrated this year because the Raiders offense will focus heavily on getting the ball to Brock Bowers, but Jenty benefits from the same offensive philosophy. The source is not worried about a rookie QB dip affecting the tight end room, suggesting Jenty has value as a secondary target in an offense designed around tight end usage. Jenty will be underrated because Kirk Cousins is likely to play extended time, meaning the Raiders offense won't experience a rookie quarterback dip.

When Tua Tagovailoa is playing for the Falcons, Bijan Robinson will be the number-one running back in fantasy football due to the volume of dump-offs and screen passes in Tua's quick-hitting offense. The source compares this to how Devon Achan was top-two in targets and yards with 80 catches when Tua was in Miami. Robinson's fantasy value will fluctuate significantly depending on whether Tua or Michael Penix Jr. is the starting quarterback, as Penix pushes the ball downfield more.

The source is very bullish on Brock Bowers, stating he wants Bowers in every fantasy team this year. The source believes Bowers will be the focal point of the Raiders offense similar to how Jackson Smith-Njigba was the centerpiece of the Seahawks offense, and projects Bowers as a potential top-three tight end in targets, catches, and yards. The source believes Bowers will be underrated this year because Kirk Cousins is likely to play extended time, meaning the Raiders offense won't experience a rookie quarterback dip. The source emphasizes that he cannot miss a Bowers season where that upside is on the table, acknowledging the risk of discussing this in July before the Raiders' actual performance but maintaining conviction in Bowers' target volume and role.

Christian Kirk has a history of injuries beyond his recent shooting incident; the source suggests he won't command a meaningful target rate in the 49ers offense and won't significantly cut into Mike Evans' target share.

Devon Achan was kept by the Dolphins and will be a primary target in Malik Willis' run-heavy offense (36-37% pass rate). The source projects Achan will get significant volume in the Dolphins' quick-hitting offense. Achan's previous success in Miami under Tua—where he was top-two in targets and yards with 80 catches—suggests similar dump-off volume under Willis.

Drake London's fantasy value is highly dependent on which Falcons quarterback is starting. When Michael Penix Jr. plays, London projects as a top-six receiver, comparable to Puka Nakua in receiving categories, as Penix pushes the ball downfield and gives London shots down the field. However, when Tua Tagovailoa is the starter, London's value drops significantly due to Tua's quick-hitting, dump-off heavy offense that favors Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson instead. London suffered a PCL injury (knee stability) around the time Penix was replaced, adding injury concern to the quarterback uncertainty.

Fifth-round rookie pass-catching running back unlikely to significantly cut into Kenneth Walker's workload; the source notes that rookie day-three running backs rarely earn primary pass-catching work in their first year, describing it as 'almost never' happening.

The source does not expect Fernando Mendoza to be a fantasy-relevant player this year; Mendoza was the first overall pick from undefeated national champion Indiana but had only two snaps under center in his final college season, and Kubiak's offense won't need to be dumbed down with Kirk Cousins as the likely starter. Mendoza is more of a rushing quarterback than Cousins, which affects the Raiders' passing game distribution. The source believes Mendoza's mentality is well-suited to the setup where he must earn the starting job and sit behind Cousins initially; Mendoza understands the process and is willing to go through it, unlike JJ McCarthy. Mendoza could play the entire year if Cousins gets injured (e.g., pulls a calf in week two).

George Kittle is recovering from an Achilles injury and appears to be ahead of schedule. The source notes the location of his Achilles tear was apparently easier to repair, suggesting a better-than-average recovery trajectory, though recovery timelines remain uncertain.

Jalen Waddle is 'clearly the best highest upside player you could draft in this range' at wide receiver 24 (mid-fourth round, ~47th overall pick), going behind Mike Evans. Despite historical frustration with Waddle's projection-to-production gap (the 'Waddle model': projected 12, scores 7), the source believes 'it's more likely that he overperforms over expectation this year than not.' The key uncertainty is Sean Payton's snap allocation philosophy; last year Sutton had 85% of snaps while the next closest was 58%, but Waddle is 'obviously a different level talent wise.' The source argues 'You could argue that's because no one was good enough to earn 80% of the snaps. So maybe this is the year where it's Sutton and Waddle and everybody else kind of rotates.' Davis Webb is now the offensive coordinator (not Payton calling plays early in the season), which the source views as a potential mitigating factor against Payton's unpredictable rotation tendencies.

The source identifies Jordan Tyson as the Saints' draft pick at receiver, described as "the highest upside receiver in the draft at Arizona State." Tyson's impact in the passing game alongside Chris Olave will make it easier to run the Saints' offense. The source frames Tyson as part of a coordinated offensive build: offensive lineman David Edwards makes it easier to run and pass, Tyson's receiving impact makes it easier to run, and Travis Etienne's running ability makes it easier to pass. The source believes the Saints will "win this division" with these additions.

The source views Kenneth Walker as one of the best value players in all fantasy football this year. Walker signed a three-year, $43 million deal with Kansas City (average $14.3M annually), making him the sixth-highest-paid running back in the NFL behind Saquon, CMC, Devon Achane, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall. When a team pays a running back $14M per year, he will get the overwhelming majority of carries and not lose work to fifth-round rookies like Emmitt Johnson. Walker is plan A, B, and C for the Chiefs' offensive explosiveness. He will get goal-line touches because all other Chiefs running backs are very small and the team did not bring back Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs have been literally dead last in every important explosive rushing metric over the last two seasons, and Walker's skill set—he is a home-run hitter who can create explosives on the ground—directly addresses this critical need. Andy Reid's screen-design expertise will utilize Walker's pass-catching ability; Walker is a better pass catcher than people think. Walker was frustrated with Seattle's usage, particularly being taken off the field near the red zone, and views his move to Kansas City as a 'prove it' opportunity with motivation to demonstrate he's an elite running back. The source projects Walker as a potential first-round pick and likely the best second-round pick available, ranking him as a mid-to-late second-round pick behind eight running backs (Jameer Gibbs, B.J. Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, McCaffrey, James Cook, Derek Henry, Ashton Gentis, Saquon) and in a tier with Devon Achane, Marion Hampton, Chase Brown, and Kyron Williams. The source expects Walker to get 20+ touches per game depending on passing game usage, with elite ceiling if deployed heavily in the passing game.

The source argues Kirk Cousins has a serious chance to play most or all of the season for the Raiders despite Fernando Mendoza being the first overall pick; Cousins finished 2025 4-0 and looked better after tearing his Achilles in 2023 and struggling in 2024, and the source believes ownership will eventually push for the veteran over the rookie. However, the source does not expect Cousins to be a fantasy-relevant player regardless of whether he plays; his value is primarily in how his presence affects other Raiders skill players like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jenty. The Raiders face a difficult early schedule (Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos in weeks 1-11).

Kyle Pitts will see increased target volume when Tua Tagovailoa is playing, as Tua's quick-hitting offense favors tight end targets. When Kirk Cousins came to the Falcons (in Minnesota), Pitts had the best stretch of his entire career as a tight end, suggesting that Cousins' quick-processing style benefits Pitts. Pitts will be a primary target when Tua is playing, contrasting with Drake London's reduced value in that scenario.

Kyler Murray projects as a top-12 quarterback floor with upside to top-10, based on two key factors: (1) Murray has 'basically never not been a top 12 fantasy quarterback or scored less than like 17 fantasy points a game' (excluding last season's ACL recovery), and (2) Kevin O'Connell's quarterbacks have 'basically other than JJ McCarthy, never not had a top 12 fantasy quarterback that he has coached or has a guy that scored less than 17 fantasy points per game.' Murray is going as a fringe top-20 quarterback in drafts despite stepping into a Vikings offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Juwan Jennings. The source calls this 'like kind of a cheap shot of the guy, maybe being like a top 10 quarterback on a good offense playing indoors.' Murray could reasonably be the last starting quarterback taken in a 12-team league, making him a value pick. The source notes Murray is 'probably the most underrated player in the NFL at this point, because Kyler, I think at this point people have forgotten how talented he is' due to his time in Arizona being a 'wasteland football wise' and off-field distractions (video game memes). In his five games last year after returning from ACL injury, 'his legs seemed to come back a little bit' and 'there's some rushing potential with them.' Justin Jefferson's enthusiasm for Murray is notable: 'the way that Justin Jefferson talks about Kyler Murray is very funny. If you read between the lines, especially he's like, he just knows how to put touch on the ball,' which the source characterizes as 'such a shot across the bow of the other quarterback who's there right now' (JJ McCarthy). However, there is a caveat: Murray and JJ McCarthy are splitting reps at minicamp/OTAs, and the source is 'very curious to see when training camp comes, if they just allow Kyler to take all the reps or how long they split that,' as splitting first-team reps all August could hurt his development.

Malik Willis is characterized as 'this year's Justin Fields, but with like a couple pluses next to his name'—a better passer than Fields with a 36% pass rate in three starts with the Titans and 37% with the Packers, indicating the Dolphins will run the ball heavily. Willis is the fastest quarterback in the NFL (possibly faster than Lamar Jackson) with an absolute cannon arm, but the source does not project him as a top-15 quarterback in standard 12-team leagues; he's an 11th or 12th round upside pick. While his rushing totals across three starts (6 carries 41 yards, 6 carries 73 yards 1 TD, 9 carries 60 yards 2 TDs) are 'legitimately sustainable from a fantasy perspective,' the Dolphins' poor record, tanking situation, and terrible receiver core (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Malik Washington as presumptive starters, with rookies Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Kevin Coleman behind them) constrain his ceiling. Limited passing production (more than 200 yards twice, more than 140 yards twice in his career) further limits upside. The source advises: 'Don't draft him' and notes he's 'the kind of guy that maybe you cut.'

Michael Penix Jr. is competing with Tua Tagovailoa for the Falcons starting job while recovering from his third ACL surgery. Penix has only played 14 games and 12 starts, making him inexperienced despite being a top-10 pick. If Penix starts, he will push the ball downfield more than Tua, creating different fantasy dynamics for Falcons receivers. The source leans slightly toward Penix starting but acknowledges it could go either way, with Tua potentially starting and Penix getting time to recover later in the season.

The source believes Mike Evans is a great fit in San Francisco and will be really good if healthy, drawing comparison to Devante Adams' success in LA. Evans is expected to dominate targets in the 49ers offense given thin receiver competition; with Juwan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne gone, there are 143 vacated targets. Ricky Pearsall has flashed but hasn't proven anything at the NFL level and has injury issues. Christian Kirk has a history of injuries beyond his recent shooting incident and won't command a meaningful target rate. Rookie John Stribling is expected to be redshirted in Kyle Shanahan's offense. The two guys expected to get the ball the most in this offense are Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans. The source views Evans as a fourth-round pick (mid-40s ADP) and argues he's being overlooked despite strong underlying metrics; the source believes Evans will have a better fantasy season than Luther Burden and notes that even before last year, his underlying stats looked good, suggesting he still has elite talent.

Ricky Pearsall has flashed in training camp but hasn't proven anything at the NFL level and has had injury issues; he's unlikely to command a significant target share in the 49ers offense.

The source expresses strong interest in Romeo Dobbs as a solid number-two receiver in New England, calling him the captain of the 'all boring team'—players who could define the season despite low name value. Dobbs had the same points per game last year as Mike Evans and DJ Moore, indicating strong underlying production. He is a good route runner who came through consistently for Green Bay when receivers were injured, making reliable third-down plays. In New England, Dobbs becomes a rock-solid complementary piece alongside AJ Brown, with the Patriots' receiving corps now settling into more appropriate roles. The source expects Dobbs to be a lovely flex option on fantasy teams.

Travis Etienne signed a $12 million per year deal with the New Orleans Saints and is part of a Saints offensive rebuild designed to improve the team's ability to run and pass. Etienne's 'abilities running back will make it easier to pass' in an offense that also added offensive lineman David Edwards and drafted receiver Jordan Tyson. The source believes 'the Saints are going to win this division' and that the team is 'going to be pretty good,' positioning Etienne as a key piece in the Saints' offensive scheme under head coach Kellen Moore.

The source is skeptical of Tua Tagovailoa's ability to succeed with the Falcons, attributing much of his previous success in Miami to Mike McDaniel's system, Tyreek Hill, and Jalen Waddle rather than Tua's own talent. The source describes Tua as having low physical traits, noting he cannot throw deep balls effectively (receivers have to come back for them), cannot move, and cannot throw on the move. The source characterizes Tua as a 'point guard' or 'short point guard who can't create his own shot' who is 'really limited.' However, Tua can run a quick-hitting offense and will likely play at some point this season, with his presence affecting Falcons skill players' target distribution. When Tua plays, Bijan Robinson becomes the number-one running back in fantasy due to dump-offs and screens, while Drake London's value drops and Kyle Pitts sees increased targets.