NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Friday, October 17, 2025

Helm is part of a split backfield arrangement in the Titans offense, competing with Chig Okonkwo for touches in a situation that faces a Patriots defense elite against the run, limiting his upside in Week 7.

Okonkwo is part of a split backfield arrangement in the Titans offense, competing with Gunner Helm for touches in a situation that faces a Patriots defense elite against the run, limiting his upside in Week 7.

Van Jefferson is now the primary receiver in the Titans offense following Calvin Ridley's removal, but the source notes he functions as a one-on-one clasher with no nuance as a route-runner, limiting his effectiveness in the passing game.

Wilson is cited as a historically poor quarterback start, ranking higher in efficiency than Cam Ward despite his own struggles, underscoring how bad Ward's early career performance has been.

Gabbert is cited as a historically poor quarterback start, ranking higher in efficiency than Cam Ward despite being considered one of the worst starters ever, underscoring how bad Ward's early career performance has been.

Rosen is operating in organizational dysfunction with a head coach (Mike McCoy) who was not previously a head coach and a quarterback coach still calling plays rather than the offensive coordinator. This mirrors the cautionary tale of Rosen's previous rookie year under Mike McCoy's offensive system, where he was considered one of the biggest first-round busts in the last 15 years. The source notes this represents a lost developmental year that could ingrain bad habits and prevent recovery.

Purdy is noted as one of the really efficient quarterbacks in NFL history (250-play career sample dating back to 1999) based on EPA data, ranking among the elite tier of early-career quarterback performances alongside Daniels, Drake Maye, and other top starters.

Daniels is highlighted as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history (250-play career sample dating back to 1999) based on EPA data, ranking among elite company like Mahomes, Manning, Brees, Allen, Brady, and Rodgers in his early career performance. The source notes 'Jaden Daniels is up there. He's he's having an incredible start.'

Barkley is a hidden hammer play against the Vikings' 23rd-ranked DVOA, 25th-ranked EPA, and 19th-ranked success rate run defense; recent comparable backs Quenton Judkins (128 yards, 40-yard TD) and Kenneth Gainwell (134 yards, 2 TDs) have exploited this weakness. Despite recent inefficiency and reduced touches due to the Eagles increasing their pass rate, Barkley is hiding in plain sight as a contrarian target with low ownership on a massively chalky week; the source frames this as a tournament-winning breakout spot where Barkley's elite matchup and potential game script funnel (Eagles establishing early leads) create a legitimate ceiling game, especially with the Vikings' elite blitz rate forcing Jalen Hurts into difficult situations.

Levis is ranked at the very bottom of NFL's EPA efficiency chart (250-play career sample dating back to 1999), positioned even below Cam Ward and other historically poor-performing quarterbacks, indicating severe efficiency struggles. The source uses Levis as a historical reference point for poor quarterback starts, noting that even historically bad starters like Levis rank higher in efficiency than Ward.

Ward has posted one of the worst quarterback efficiency starts in NFL history (250-play career sample dating back to 1999), ranking at the bottom of the EPA efficiency chart below Josh Rosen, Will Levis, Zack Wilson, and Blaine Gabbert. With only 16.2% boom plays (one EPA or more) versus league average of 24%, and the highest bust rate in the league, the source assesses Ward as fundamentally struggling rather than situational, stating 'I think he stinks. I think Ward's bad.' The source gave Ward a one-week window to prove himself and he failed to deliver. The efficiency has been so bad that by sheer variance alone things should turn in Ward's favor, but the source would consider it a win if Ward reaches Spencer Rattler's current efficiency level, suggesting significant downside from draft expectations.

Patriots QB expected to be the focal point of the offense if the run game struggles against Tennessee; however, source expresses concern that Jeffrey Simmons could disrupt Maye, who takes sacks, and the Patriots offensive line is not good, creating sack risk in this matchup. Despite ranking not far below the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history (since 1999), Maye faces a difficult defensive setup.

Patriots running back under consideration for increased involvement against Titans weak run defense; however, source notes neither Stevenson nor Trayvon Henry have produced in the run game to date, and the Patriots offensive line remains subpar, creating uncertainty about whether the matchup will actually lead to increased carries.

Hunter Henry emerges as the preferred DFS stacking partner with Drake May given Stefon Diggs' injury status. The source positions him as the alternative tight end stack option in a game where May is expected to perform well but lacks ideal receiving weapons.

Stefon Diggs is banged up and listed as questionable, creating uncertainty for DFS stacking with Drake May. A controversial catch ruling in the previous game (Saints) should have counted but was ruled incomplete, costing him production. His injury status makes him an unreliable stacking partner, pushing DFS players toward Hunter Henry or naked Drake May instead.

Drake May is quarterback one in EPA per game, just ahead of Dak Prescott, with awesome success rate and strong underlying numbers. He was a tournament-winning QB last week and faces a Titans pass defense with poor pass rush (Jeffrey Simmons is strong but the rest are weak). However, May's offensive line isn't great, he takes sacks when pressured, and he hunts big plays downfield, making him somewhat matchup dependent. This is a favorable matchup where he should have another strong game, though he's not the most stackable due to Stefon Diggs' injury status. Working with Josh McDaniels who knows how to design an offense.

Pacheco is a DFS play in a weak running back week at 5,000 salary; his rushing yards prop at 43.5 is the only actionable prop bet on him. The source notes he won't win tournaments this year and Kansas City is number one in neutral dropback rate, limiting his volume ceiling.

Chiefs RB retains all red zone work inside the 10-yard line, maintaining his role as the goal-line back despite Isaiah Pacheco receiving increased snaps. Neither back is being used in the passing game.

Chiefs RB has increased snaps and looks more efficient running the ball, but lacks a fantasy pipeline; he is only receiving additional handoffs with no receiving volume. Kareem Hunt retains all red zone work inside the 10-yard line. DFS consideration at $5,000 only due to weak RB slate; his rushing yards prop at 43.5 is the only actionable bet. The source notes he won't win tournaments this year and Kansas City is number one in neutral dropback rate, limiting his volume ceiling.

Expected to play after being out of non-contact jersey; injury status cleared. Harrison was out of the non-contact jersey, indicating he is expected to be cleared for this week's slate.

DFS pay-up consideration on this slate. The source identifies Warren as one of the preferred targets if paying up from cheaper options, alongside Evan McBride.

Kelce's role and target share are being diminished by Travis Rice's return from injury. Rice 'earns his targets' and 'does the Kelsey thing better than Kelsey now,' rendering Kelce's role minute. The source notes Kelce is touchdown-dependent for fantasy value and is not excited about him at current pricing; would be more interested if salary drops in coming weeks as Rice eats into his production.

DFS tight end at $3,900 on DraftKings with significant opportunity after David Njoku was ruled out. The source prefers Fannin over Noah Gray at only $400 more salary, projecting better fantasy output and describing him as 'more fun to go to' with better projection.

DFS tight end at cheap pricing with significant upside. Gray played 80% of snaps last week with 7 targets in a game where the Chiefs had only 25 dropbacks; with the Chiefs averaging 35 dropbacks per game, those 7 targets could scale to 9–11 targets in a normal game script, offering double-digit target potential at a low salary. The source identifies him as the only guy with mild DFS interest in this spot.

Raiders WR has been outscored by Trey Tucker in 3 of the past 4 weeks, indicating inconsistent production and a secondary role in the passing game relative to Tucker.

Mayer had 80% snap participation and a 35% target share, positioning him as a potential volume accumulator. The source identifies him as 'somewhat interesting' on the Raiders side and emphasizes he could be a cheap tight end play for DFS; he played 80% of drop-backs last week with seven targets in a game where the Raiders only had 25 total drop-backs. If the Raiders are forced to drop back more against the Chiefs (who force teams to drop back more as huge favorites), Mayer's 7 targets could scale to 9-11 targets in a normal game script, offering double-digit target potential at a low salary.

Richard has been playing more on receiving downs recently with a 17% target share in week five and 18% last week, reaching 79% snap participation last week. Despite only 0.71 yards per route run, the source sees him trending toward a receiver role and questions whether he could develop into a viable receiving option, noting the trend is positive even if the current efficiency is modest.

Gino Smith is struggling significantly this season with efficiency metrics very similar to Bryce Young and Justin Fields; he is turning the ball over frequently. The source notes the Raiders have the lowest drop-back rate in neutral game script over the past three weeks, but as huge road underdogs against the Chiefs, they will be forced to drop back more, creating an unfavorable environment for Smith and the Raiders offense.

Worthy is positioned as a strong tournament play option alongside Rice. With Rice returning, Worthy's role remains significant given Mahomes' elite play and the 30-point team total. Worthy's target profile is strong: 15% first-read target rate (vs. Jordan Addison's 13%) and 23% target share on route runs (vs. Addison's 17%). Worthy has been earning targets at a better rate than Addison despite not having Rice on the field yet. However, some second-read volume may shift to Rice, who specializes in underneath routes. Worthy functions as a more trustworthy, bigger part of the offense compared to a Jameson Williams archetype. Worthy can be double-stacked with Rice at current prices; the source positions Rice as the underneath specialist (Amari Cooper archetype) and Worthy as a more trustworthy Jameson Williams type—a bigger part of the offense.

Mahomes is operating at an elite level: QB8 in EPA per game, QB7 in success rate, with 9.6 EPA per game this season. His current play is in line with where Joe Burrow was last year and where CJ Stroud is this year. He's been running more, passing better, and has improved completion rate and yards per pass attempt. Mahomes is trending upward with 25+ fantasy points in four of the opening six games. The Raiders are a bad defense overall, supporting Mahomes' continued success. With Rice returning, the Chiefs' passing efficiency should improve further, and they've been running at a 10% pass rate of expected this season—twice as high as the second-place Chargers—suggesting more passing volume ahead. Mahomes' elite play this season now supports stacking him with pass catchers like Rice and Worthy in DFS, a strategy that was not viable last year when Mahomes wasn't operating at this high level.