Davis Mattek on Baker Mayfield

1% ownership value play with chalk correlation in 350K tournament.

Baker Mayfield was a strong DFS value play at 1% ownership in a 350K tournament despite high correlation to chalk plays (Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey). The source notes that Baker's low ownership made no sense given the high probability that if the chalk stack hit, Baker would also score; playing Baker at super-low ownership allowed stacking high-projection players (CMC, Bijan) while maintaining tournament upside. Simulations with Baker paired with chalk pieces like Bijan, CMC, Puka, Godwin, Hurst, Auten, and Kyren produced the best lineup results.

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