Why Did He Make This Play In DFS?

Playing Amon-Ra St. Brown over Christian McCaffrey was an egregious DFS decision. Despite receiving 22 targets and scoring 11 points, Amon-Ra was far inferior to CMC, who had only 7-8 targets but scored 14 points on the first drive alone with massive ceiling potential. Mattek drew a hard line at this 1v1 comparison, calling it 'egregious' and stating 'There's no way that's good.' Mattek tried to avoid playing Amon-Ra but found no viable alternative receiver for the slate, forcing him to include St. Brown in his winning lineup despite preference to fade him. He later swapped away from Amon-Ra to Puka Nacua as part of a strategy adjustment.

Baker Mayfield was a strong DFS value play at 1% ownership in a 350K tournament despite high correlation to chalk plays (Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey). The source notes that Baker's low ownership made no sense given the high probability that if the chalk stack hit, Baker would also score; playing Baker at super-low ownership allowed stacking high-projection players (CMC, Bijan) while maintaining tournament upside. Simulations with Baker paired with chalk pieces like Bijan, CMC, Puka, Godwin, Hurst, Auten, and Kyren produced the best lineup results.

Davis Mattek did not play Bijan Robinson in any of his tournament teams and did not think he was a particularly good play; he believed David Gibbs was so superior to Robinson that Robinson was not a tournament play despite the pressure to roster him. Fading Bijan Robinson without Brian Robinson in the lineup is a significant mistake; when Brian Robinson is absent, the backfield touches are consolidated, making Bijan a must-play in that game context. The source preferred two 20-touch running backs over Bijan Robinson paired with a tight end with zero upside; Bijan's workload was evaluated as limited compared to elite backs. However, Robinson was included in the source's winning DFS lineup alongside Jordan Love, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Matthew Golden, Ted Hurst, George Kittle, and Kate Otten, and was played as chalk in a 350K tournament lineup.

Braelon Allen was identified as good value at running back at a lower price point. He was played over Cade Otton and praised as a great DFS play; Allen recorded 17 carries and 6 targets, outscored Woody Marks by approximately 12 points, and finished as a top-10 running back on the slate. Allen's elite workload (15+ carries, 5+ targets per game), size, speed, and talent level were emphasized; he should be priced way higher. He's a legitimate three-down back with elite talent, not just a volume play—every time he has the ball he could easily break one for 60 yards. Size-adjusted he's fast, comparable to Brandon Jacobs. Co-host MBF won with the Keenan and Braelon version of the speaker's team.

Braelen Allen was selected in Mattek's DFS lineup over Jaquavious Woody Marks as the running back option, representing a preference for Allen's profile over Marks' inefficient production. Allen outscored Marks by approximately 12 points on the slate, demonstrating he is a legitimate talent unlike Marks.

Despite projecting well (around 10 points depending on source), Cade Otton was criticized as a bad process play; his projection was higher than any game he'd scored all season, but it was dismissed as unreliable given his historical floor of 3 for 36 regardless of personnel. It was called irresponsible to play him when better value existed at other spots. The source avoided Otton in favor of Braelon Allen as a DFS play. However, every optimizer tool recommended Otton as a strong cash game play alongside Ted Hurst and Chris Godwin. The Hurst-Otton situation was funny because Bryce Young played one of the worst games of his life with only 11 dropbacks, making projections for both tight ends unreliable.

Davis Mattek played Kirk in DFS lineups, but Kirk was revealed late to be the emergency wide receiver for Tampa Bay—a role designation that was not reported beforehand. The source expressed frustration that this information was not available in advance, making it a problematic DFS selection.

Davis Mattek identified CMC as a cash game lock and must-play chalk piece at $7,600 with the third-highest team total on the slate in the dome. CMC scored 14 points on the first drive alone with 7-8 targets, demonstrating massive ceiling upside; the 49ers had no other receiving options and ran everything through Kittle and CMC. Despite getting banged up mid-game, CMC outscored Puka Nacua and was far superior to playing Amon-Ra St. Brown in cash games. Mattek included CMC in his winning DFS lineup and called not playing him at this price 'completely insane,' giving himself the dunce cap for missing the elite value spot. CMC was featured as good chalk in the winning mid-season millionaire lineup and was a core chalk piece in a 350K tournament stack with Bijan Robinson and Baker Mayfield.

Davante Adams is the primary red zone target for the Chargers, receiving a significant portion of expected touchdowns in goal-line situations. When Adams is off the field, those expected touchdowns get redistributed, primarily to Puka Nacua and Davis Allen. The source emphasizes that red zone plays are specifically designed for Adams, meaning his absence directly elevates Puka Nacua's touchdown expectation and projection.

David Njoku was used as a salary relief tight end play in a 350K tournament lineup. The source views Njoku and Kyle Pitts as tools to enable fancy plays by freeing up salary, allowing access to other desired plays while maintaining tournament upside.

Davis Allen scored two touchdowns in a game where the source played Tyler Higbee instead, illustrating a missed DFS opportunity. Davis Allen was part of the Los Angeles Rams tight end rotation; route participation was unpredictable and appeared random, with Stafford's reads determining usage based on coverage. Davis Allen is a recipient of red zone targets when Davante Adams is off the field, receiving some of the expected touchdowns that would normally go to Adams. However, the primary beneficiary of Adams' absence is Puka Nacua.

Davis Mattek played Waddle in DFS despite fine peripheral numbers (4 catches for 38 yards). Waddle got injured on an end-around play where he also fumbled, making him unreliable despite the workload. The source emphasizes: "You can't you can't play Jaylen Waddle" due to injury risk and poor execution, even when peripheral numbers appear playable.

Jordan Love was identified as the top points per dollar quarterback and clear cash game choice; 65% owned in the massive $50 double up; every site had him as a top five overall projected quarterback, with many sites ranking him as the top projected quarterback. He correlated very well with Matthew Golden. Davis Mattek recommended Love as a value quarterback at 6K salary for cash games, questioning how players could pass on the pricing given Love's elite status; he stopped short of calling him a 'stone lock' but expressed strong conviction in the value proposition. Love was the quarterback in the source's winning DFS lineup alongside Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Matthew Golden, Ted Hurst, George Kittle, and Kate Otten.

Watkins was an alternative DFS play that would have been superior to Kirk as the emergency receiver; the source expresses regret at not pivoting to Watkins in lineups, suggesting he had better upside in that role.

Khalil Herbert received every touch that Brian Robinson would have received in his absence, accumulating approximately 9 carries. This consolidation of backfield work made Herbert a key beneficiary of Robinson's injury, taking all of Robinson's touches in the game.

Kyle Pitts (referred to as Auten in the transcript) was used as a salary relief tight end play in a 350K tournament lineup. Mattek viewed Pitts and David Njoku (Hurst) as tools to enable fancy plays by freeing up salary, allowing access to other desired plays while maintaining tournament upside. However, Pitts was part of the chalk tight end group (alongside Hurst and Auten) that faced heavy ownership in cash games, creating risk of a zero at 80% ownership.

Williams was in the doghouse with a reduced role after talking badly in the locker room, prompting McVay to bench him. He was half benched and splitting carries with another back in the game, significantly limiting his DFS value and increasing Puka Nacua's value by eliminating end-zone risk.

Matthew Golden was identified as a cash game lock with a safe floor and insane ceiling; he could easily have a 35-point game and was compared to Keenan Allen in short-area stuff with additional deep upside. Everyone good at cash was playing him; he correlated well with Jordan Love. Davis Mattek identified Golden as a cash game lock recommendation for the DFS slate. Golden was included in the source's winning DFS lineup alongside Jordan Love, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ted Hurst, George Kittle, and Kate Otten.

Puka Nacua was a brilliant DFS play with 11 targets for 35% targets per route run and nearly 0.8 wapper. With no Davante Adams and Kyren Williams in the doghouse, Puka eliminated end zone risk he normally carries, making him 'legitimately like one of the best plays' on the slate. Mattek was 100% getting Puka if paying down at both running back value positions, with ceiling potential around 35 fantasy points. Puka was played as a contrarian pick with the explicit strategy of fading projections; Nate's rationale was 'Forget the projections. I want to play Puka Nacua. Nobody else is going to play Puka. Puka's going to smash and I'm going to win the whole slate in cash.' At $7,500 in a 350K tournament, Puka's touchdown expectation increased significantly with Davante off the field, causing his projection to spike. Mattek swapped into Puka in a DFS lineup, replacing Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka was featured in the winning mid-season millionaire lineup. Playing Puka over CMC or Bijan Robinson was criticized as 'crazy' and inferior.

Ted Hurst was thrust into a big projection due to Tampa Bay's game circumstances, but projections between Hurst and Tez Johnson were described as a total guess because the Buccaneers' offensive configuration with Baker Mayfield at quarterback had never been seen before; snap counts were skewed by game script (up by a billion). Hurst was played at zero percent ownership in DFS and scored zero points; he was designated as the emergency wide receiver for Tampa Bay, information that was not reported beforehand. The source thought Hurst was set up for the role but acknowledges the Buccaneers game was wonky and doesn't want to take losses on that game.

Projections between Tez Johnson and Ted Hurst are a total guess because the configuration of players with Baker Mayfield at quarterback has never been seen before, making historical projection models unreliable. Mattek received multiple live-stream questions about Johnson and acknowledged the uncertainty in differentiating between the two tight ends in this unprecedented offensive setup.

Davis Mattek played Higbee heavily in DFS and PrizePicks but explicitly labels this as 'not sharp.' Higbee ran 77% of routes but underperformed relative to other Rams tight ends: Kobe Parkinson scored 48 yards and Davis Allen scored two touchdowns in the same game. Simulation models showed Higbee at -1.4% ROI with slightly too much ownership, indicating the source was chasing production from weeks 3-5 when Higbee performed well.

Woody Marks was identified as good value at running back at a lower price point. He received 19 carries and 1 target at $5,600 DFS price; despite the source's criticism of Marks as a player, this was evaluated as a totally fine DFS play given the workload opportunity with David Montgomery out and the matchup against the Giants at home in the dome.