From the episode
He got extremely lucky in the fact that the Jets lost like every single offensive skill position player other than him to start the year. And so they've fed him like a 36% target share in those games. I don't think he's going to have a 10% target share like he did this week... if you have a lower than 30% target share on an offense like the Jets... he's not creating a ton on your own three yards after the catch... the last five games of the season for Garrett Wilson... are a bye. Patrick Sertan. Then the Cardinals. Christian Gonzalez... And then the Vikings.
STACKED’s take
Wilson most concerning; target share will drop from 36%, and brutal late-season schedule looms.
Trey Tucker is most worried about Garrett Wilson among the four concerning players. Tucker notes Wilson got extremely lucky that the Jets lost every other offensive skill position player to start the year, which inflated his target share to 36% in those games. Tucker expects his target share to drop below 30%, and on a Jets offense with that lower target share, Wilson won't produce well because he doesn't create much after the catch and isn't getting downfield looks—he's an accumulator who needs high volume. Tucker also highlights a brutal end-of-season schedule: bye, Patrick Surtain, Christian Gonzalez, and Vikings, which would be really bad for Wilson if those corners are healthy.
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