Footballguys on Tee Higgins
From the article
If Higgins' touchdown total falls back into the 6 to 8 range, he's going to finish at WR20 or lower
STACKED’s take
Wood expects Higgins' TD regression from 21 to 6-8, pricing him WR20.
Jason Wood ranks Tee Higgins as WR20 versus consensus WR14.5 (ADP 14.5), a downgrade of 5.5 spots. Wood's projection isn't far from consensus to suggest he's down on the Bengals No. 2 receiver; both see him as a must-start fantasy WR2. However, the difference is the industry isn't pricing in touchdown regression. Higgins caught 21 touchdowns in the last two seasons in just 27 games, but scored only 24 touchdowns in the four seasons prior. If Higgins' touchdown total falls back into the 6 to 8 range, he'll finish at WR20 or lower considering his target volume is capped by Ja'Marr Chase. Wood is happy to roster Higgins as WR2 but would only take him if available a round past where consensus is pricing him, noting the easiest way to build a disappointing fantasy roster is to pay for peak touchdown seasons. Odds of adjusting ranked LOW.
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